Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Warning: US Jobs Data *Just* Out // Tech Stocks at Risk + Stock Market News 14 March 2024

Transcript

Warning: US Jobs Data *Just* Out // Tech Stocks at Risk + Stock Market News 14 March 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix there and welcome to this life pre-market session.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Today we've got out producer price, inflation, jobs data, retail sales data three things that could each move the market and the market.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: They are moving Super important.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You understand what that means so you can make better decisions today, but also going into the Fed rate decision meeting next week, because that's happening.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to walk you through it here, share you a little bit of my banker wisdom, if you can call it that, and I've actually done something better than that.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I've actually written a document for you which explains how inflation producer price and usual, the normal inflation actually impacts Fed rate decisions, how that impacts certain stocks, the companies that benefit from the higher rates, the benefits that will benefit from falling rates and more, which sectors benefit from everything else.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: So if you want to get your pause on that document and all its glorious six pages it's completely free of charge just go to philxfrenzorg slash PPI, which stands for producer price inflation, which is what we are about to look at PPI.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Felix Frenzorg says PPI, so download it, it's completely free of charge.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: And I'll also want to encourage you to learn how we make money right and I'll show you again some trades today and everything else.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: We did 126% in 2022, 105% in 2023 and so far this year we are up $4,800 on a 30k portfolio, which is all right, and in fact we've got the portfolio itself looking really good as well.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: But the open trades we don't count those until the chickens have hatched.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: And you can, of course, join me for a live trading session where I will teach you precisely the three steps I use and the couple of hours a week that I spend on this.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: I'll do some trading today as well at Felix Frenzorg slash webinar, so grab yourself a seat.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: It's going to be an evening trading learning.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Wonderful session takes about 90 minutes and you walk away with my entire structure of how we exit trade, how we automate it and everything else.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: So head over to Felix Frenzorg slash webinar links down below in the description as well and there we go.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's get cracking here with some data.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: So retail sales data came out today.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Very important.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: It tells you how strong is the US consumer, how strong is the economy ultimately, and what does the Bank of America's forecast say?
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Well, they were expecting rates to go up, retail sales to go up by 0.4 percent.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg thought 0.8 percent.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Well, let's have a look at it, what actually happened?
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: So we've got an adjusted increase of only 0.6 percent, and that is after the revised last month's data downwards.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: And that seems to be the mechanism of the Biden administration Pump the data up so it looks better in a month, later revise it downwards when nobody pays any attention.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: So last month was worse than they'd reported this month at 0.6 percent.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: It's possibly also artificially inflated, sorry, seasonally adjusted.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: And what's really the problem here?
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Well, people aren't buying any furniture.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: People are spending less on health and personal care, less on clothing, less in department stores and nurse in retail.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: And the one thing that's really like holding this up is actually gas sales, gasoline station sales, which is a bit of an odd one to lift the economy, and we also have seen quite a lot of car sales.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: That could have something to do with the government incentives.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: I'm not entirely sure it might just be a rebound from January, but other than that we're not seeing a lot of growth.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: So we've definitely not seeing people buying sort of longer term expenditure like furniture, fridges and that kind of stuff.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: And if you take out and we're going to get a little deep here because I think it's important to understand if you take out food, auto building materials and gas stations, I mean overall, you can just see we're just sort of flatlining here.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: In terms of retail expenditure, it's kind of declining and has done so far now like two or three years in a row, so it's not looking particularly wonderful Overall.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: If you adjust this for inflation because inflation is still a thing we've had falling retail expenditure, which is a human me expenditure 12 out of 16 months the last 16 months.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: And what does that say to you?
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Well, the consumer isn't buying stuff.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Very, very simple, because they're cautious.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: They don't feel that comfortable about the economy, about as comfortable as maybe some of you feel about clicking that like button Because I like so very, very low on this video right now.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: But you know it says something about the economy.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: So be wary of certain sectors and understand which sectors, particularly by downloading my six page guide through this phoenixfrontorg.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: And let's head into inflation then.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Right, so inflation came in higher than expected.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: That's bad right 0.6%.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Last month it was 0.3% and that means that input prices at factory level are going up and that means inflation at consumer level is probably going to stay somewhat up as well.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: You're having trouble with the PPI link.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Let me check that out.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Ppi no, no, here it is.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: You just get access that way, so it seems to work.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: It seems to work for me.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Retail sales is lower than expected.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: That's also bad.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Core PPI is also higher than expected.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: That's also bad.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Jobless claims are a little bit lower, which means the economy is stronger, which you could arguably say is bad for rate cuts.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Expectations and continuing jobless claims have also come down, allegedly 90,000.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't believe this data for a moment, but on the face of it it looks bad.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: So all it over is not great, right.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: We're looking more like stack flation than we've beaten the high inflation, and that's the real risk to the economy is stack flation, which means sluggish economic growth and relatively high inflation.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: So not brilliant, I would say.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Now, does that mean the market is completely collapsing?
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: No, the market is powered by AI, if you remember.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: If you want to sign up to the live trading training by the way, felix, that's what it looks like Just pop your name in here and register and you can see in your time zone what time we're going to teach you basically the dummies guide to trading, my three step trading floor.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: We do some live trading together.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you how I automate it so we can do this in very, very few hours.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: This is pre-market and video is down a little, but at $909 is not exactly, you know, terrible.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: And Tesla is down some more.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Some people are saying Tesla isn't going to grow for a while.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: You know what you make of that.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Coca-cola is down, amd is down always in sympathy with Nvidia and that's pretty much it.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: The rest of the market is going.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Who cares?
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: We got AI and I think it also shows the market is losing faith in government data.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: They just don't freaking believe it and we just.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: You know the momentum is incredibly strong, incredibly strong, almost as strong as that.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Did you do that Boeing trade we put out on our newsletter?
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: It's up 1850 percent and the second one is up 379 percent in a week.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: If you want to get your pause on those seriously do it's a really, really, really good read Go to phoenixfrenzorg.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: I think I have a link on this, don't I?
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: There?
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: It is phoenixfrenzorg.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: We put on a newsletter.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: There's a free version, there's a premium version and you get insane level of insight and quite a lot of humor.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: But, more importantly, we walk you through the actual trade setups and everything else.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: So get your pause on that at phoenixfrenzorg.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: I'll just put it on the screen one more time.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Here it is phoenixfrenzorg Link should also be down below in the description, if I was a good boy.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Now we've got two big themes out there which we might want to look at.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: One is oil has crossed the golden cross, which is generally perceived as a very, very bullish thing, so oil is going up Now.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: By the way, that also means inflation goes up, right, because oil is a big input there.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: So gas expenditure going up.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: And then we got Apple.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: The very opposite story.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: We have what is known as the death cross, which is a little dramatic, I think.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: But the last time we had that, I think, was in 2022.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: And Apple fell at that time.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: Draw some lines here From 160 all the way down to 130.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: That's pretty significant right.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: So they lost $30.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: They lost about 20% of market cap at that particular moment.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: So we are not looking too good on Apple right now.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Again, it's a worry about growth and so on.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: I had a chat with somebody today who was telling me that Apple is going to come out with a chip which will apparently rival Nvidia.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: We're interesting to see more and more on that and I'll try to get some more data points on that for you.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: But yeah, that's where we are right here right now Bloomberg reports See what Bloomberg reports Biden's best here it is US producer prices jump, adding signs of persistent inflation.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: That's not really what you want, right?
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Core and broader measures exceed estimates for rises.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Ppi inflation rises more than forecast, so we're looking at higher rates for longer folks.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: That's what we're looking at and you need to understand what that impacts.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: As I say, I did write a document for you.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Some of you guys are in it.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: I can see you in it philxfriendsorg slash PPI.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: So you can get your pause on that and understand on a more deeper level what drives the market and why the interest rates are so important, how it all ties together.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: So you need to understand inflation, fed.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Which stocks does it impact?
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: How does it impact them?
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: What about the stocks with lots of cash?
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: What about the stocks with high free cash flow?
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Those are maybe the five things to put together and understand, so do read that.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: That's probably a good thing to do.