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The 5 o' Clock Shadow with Schalk Louw · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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The JSC has closed its doors for another day and it's time therefore, as it's a
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Wednesday, to speak to Skulk Lowe,
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Portfolio Manager, PSG Wealth, Old Oak in Cape Town.
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Had to happen Skulk, it had to happen and it has and don't panic.
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We told you it would happen, we just didn't know when.
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Correct.
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I didn't know it was going to...
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Well, there is two surprises.
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I think that the pullback and as well as the magnitude of the run.
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I mean, so people yesterday, I woke up and not yesterday, this morning,
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woke up and the headlines.
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And I'm going to say of the newspapers, because there's no such thing as a
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newspaper, but over my website where I usually find my news.
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And I think that I can recall the...
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The headline said something,
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largest drop in gold in decades and silver is the largest
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one day drop since February 2021 or something like that.
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And I look at the drop in my six odd percent drop in the gold price yesterday.
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And I went like, yeah, it's really,
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really bad to have a six odd percent drop.
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Especially if you bought a gold investment month to date.
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So as we sat on the 20th of October,
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so basically the day before the big drop, the gold price was up
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13.7%, close to 14% for the month alone and 67%
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for 2025.
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So, you know, When something, you know, sounds too good to be true, it often is.
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That's the one saying I want to use.
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But something that runs as hard as it can drop just as hard.
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Okay, so let's get some percentages here because this interests me and I've always
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tried to
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get out of you the relationship between the dollar
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gold price and the price of shares both in the United States or Australia or Canada,
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wherever, whatever,
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and South Africa.
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So what happened?
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And gold fell...
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This is interesting because you know me and my reversals.
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You know me.
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I'm a reversals bloke,
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which means that if a market goes in one direction and then suddenly immediately
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goes in the other
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direction and closes down on the day, for example, that's a reversal.
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This is exactly what happened on Friday.
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The gold price on Friday went to $4,391 an ounce and then closed down,
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I think, something like...
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A 42.50, 42.60, something like that.
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A massive reversal.
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New highs, new lows on the day and closing down.
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So I said that's the reversal.
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Monday, I thought reversals don't work anymore, Scout,
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because the gold price went to 4,398, I think it was, today's high.
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But then, then, today.
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A very strange, but reversals work.
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If you're patient and if you've got the guts to...
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to ride out a few storms.
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So we're going to set up a fund for horny punters who like a bit of
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risk.
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It's the reversal fund, but we'll talk about that off air.
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But anyway, that's what happened.
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Hard to make a small fortune as you've been a big one.
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I've been a big one.
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Don't be nasty.
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It'll be patience.
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You might only trade twice a year, but that twice a year will be lucrative.
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Carry on.
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So 6% down, you said, on gold.
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And what were the shares doing?
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I looked at the resi, and I know it's just not only gold price.
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Because remember, we also saw massive retracements in the palladium, platinum,
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those prices as well.
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So it was funny enough, you're talking about,
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Colby was a presenter the other day, referred to me as a data nerd.
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So I don't know if I should.
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I should take offense or say thank you very much, sir.
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But, I mean, just for interest's sake, I mean,
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yesterday we saw a drop in the RSI index, the JSE
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RSI index, of 7.9%.
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A one-day drop.
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That's massive.
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Why is it massive?
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Because if you take over the past five years, and remember, the past five years
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we had things like COVID.
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There was a lot of action in the market.
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weather massive retracement in 2022.
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We had a massive war.
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There was major things that happened in the markets over the past five years.
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Over the past five years, We had the liberation day, and during that liberation
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day,
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we had a massive retracement in gold, something like 9% there in April.
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But if you take that out, we haven't seen a 7%
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drop in the RESE index over the past five years, ever.
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And yesterday, it went like this.
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So it was an aggressive, aggressive, aggressive move in all,
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let's call it South African resources.
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Those are precious metals.
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resources.
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And today, we on one stage thought we're going to see a repeat of yesterday,
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but at least, it's still negative, make no mistake, because,
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but I mean, it did the latter part of today,
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you could see there was sort of a bit of consolidation and a bit of sanity that
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moved back into the market.
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Let's state The most important thing, that the investment case for the likes of gold
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has not changed.
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No, nothing's changed, apart from it got a little bit frothy.
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And also, one other thing on a fundamental basis is that it was the beginning of
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Diwali,
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the celebration of Diwali.
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And the gold buying up to the celebration had been fairly brisk from what I
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understand,
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the retail sales, particularly in India, obviously.
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And then Diwali over, that's it.
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gold buying stopped.
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Did you hear that?
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As a factor, we know about the incredible importance that gold has in Indian
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culture.
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But did you hear about the Diwali story?
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No, no, no.
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There's a lot of reasoning behind, you know,
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why we've seen the movement that we've seen yesterday.
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And to the extent we've seen it.
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I'm going to explain to you literally in Half a sentence, why we've seen the
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movement yesterday, easy.
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Go on.
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It was more sellers than buyers yesterday.
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No, no.
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And you work a long day anyway.
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You're a poor wife and children.
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Exactly.
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Exactly.
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It is.
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I know it's technical.
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So let me write this down.
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More sellers than buyers.
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Okay.
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I'll put that through Grok and Copilot and DeepSeek and Perplexity and
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see what they all come up with.
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at its best i know people just couldn't pay that price people no one wanted to be
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the first person to pay 4
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400 so it got to 43 98 the buying simply stopped there was a vacuum and what the
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only thing that can happen when
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there's a vacuum of buyers is that the price falls and the sellers come in and
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the bids are much lower and
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much lower it can we never we nearly got to changing
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our big figure from three to four on the gold today didn't i think went to 4 010 or
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something
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And there's still many hours to close this.
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See, that's it.
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Even after the aggressive, I think it's Peter Schiff,
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that yesterday tweeted that he said,
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even this massive, massive retracement,
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I still left gold above the $4,000 mark.
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And maybe it's going to go test that, like you said, that $4,000.
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I seriously don't care.
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I mean, if you told me.
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a month ago a little bit more than a month ago that we will be sitting on the 22nd of
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of october and gold is going to be higher
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than four thousand dollars i would have told you you're mad anyway um if you told
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me if you're going to be going
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surpass the 4300 we actually retraced to 4000 i i would have said you bonkers you
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know anyway so so i
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think the business case for for gold has not changed i think and to be honest i do
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believe and this is my personal
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opinion that we've seen run a little bit too quickly, too aggressively.
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And this is just bringing back some sanity, bringing back some sanity in the
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market.
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But I still believe that we're going to see it form a base again.
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And most probably have a second stab at running towards the $5,000 mark.
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And I don't believe it should be trading there.
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It's just, well, it's just you could see the aggression that has moved to this
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point.
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I don't think you can stop an out-of-control train that quickly.
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I will say to people listening that sometimes the market goes straight back,
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and that's because the fall, because of an erroneous event, doesn't change the
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fundamental picture.
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The fundamental picture in the short term has changed because it simply means that
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there are certain retail punters that came in at the end
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that have been knocked out, and they're licking their wounds.
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It's not going to be easy to plunge into the gold price to push it back to 4,400
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again.
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As I said, people must regroup and lick their wounds and then say, right, let's
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wait.
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Let it make a base, as you quite rightly said, and off we go.
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But off we go again, we will.
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I think the price has got the potential to go to 3,750, something like that,
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3,800, and then start going again.
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There's a big long-term trend line, Skullcane.
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You've probably identified that as well.
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Yeah, if you look at, you want to get technical now, I mean your 37,000,
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38,000 level is pretty much the 50-day moving average.
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I mean, that's a good call for it to sort of regroup in those levels.
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If it breaks below those levels, it could even go and flirt with those,
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let's call it 3,300, 3,400 levels.
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I still very much believe that the trend is your friend on this one.
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And back at the fundamentals, I mean, you and I have been having this conversation
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many, many, many, many times.
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I mean, about specifically the American economy.
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When Powell came out last week and made it quite verbal that day,
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he feels that nothing has really changed in terms of his stance on the U.S.
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economy.
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But the labor market...
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That's a major, major concern currently.
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So that's one tick.
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So the moment you see a crack in the labor market and suddenly you start seeing your
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unemployment kick
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up, that's the one tick within the stagflation scenario.
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I still got no doubt in my mind.
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And when I say no doubt,
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I feel so strongly about that the tariffs are going to create a major,
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major inflation problem.
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in the next few months.
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I mean, so inflation, I still believe is there.
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You're quite right when you say that, because at the moment, the early tariff
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increases have been absorbed by the people,
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by the importers, by the retailers.
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So they've said, OK, we've made a lot of money out of this in the past couple of
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years.
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You can see that from our results.
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We're not going to pass this on to the consumer.
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But eventually, they're going to have to say, I'm sorry.
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We've been the recipient of the higher tariffs now.
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We've soaked it all up.
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And now it's going to be down to you.
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And that is when inflation does pick up.
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So it could be three to six months, Skulk.
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But pick up, it will.
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And the labor market, I don't know.
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I don't know about the labor market.
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There's all sorts of instances of the small instances.
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But if you spread that around the whole of America, you might say that, yeah,
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we've got ourselves into an employment recession.
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Yeah.
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No, 100%.
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100%.
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I still don't think.
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The recession is off the cards.
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I know people were advocating calling a recession for the past two years already
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on the US.
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That hasn't happened.
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But I still believe it can happen.
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And if you look at this, again, back to the inflation.
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We've seen the inflation data coming out from South Africa.
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That's sort of a case in point as well.
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3.4%.
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3.4%.
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I thought that was, well, we know that was a...
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definite definite win so um if if the the salt and its members are listening
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um you know if we looked at the fushini groups uh but uh results
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yesterday we can see the retailers are struggling i mean you could see the
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furnishing group and i think what was it two weeks ago uh
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three
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weeks ago we had truers as well that had a major major crack the day the results were
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released yesterday what was what the fushini group was down something like 13
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or something like that in one day um the the
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we the economy is still struggling um and in the 20th november that's uh the next
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uh meeting i think we
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need to look re-look at this again and say we should be decreasing interest rates
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especially with the rent
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strong certainly against the us dollar exactly yeah exactly but Back to
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inflation, I just want to quickly finish up the inflation.
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With inflation, you were talking about a base forming in certain classes.
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Inflation formed a wonderful base globally over the past two years with being very,
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very low.
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The worry currently about that is when you get something like tariffs and that kicks
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in, suddenly,
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if you're let's take, for example, oil price.
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That's a very simple one.
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We had oil two years ago.
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running very, very quickly from the $70 to the $90 mark, very quickly.
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Currently, oil is trading at $60 mark.
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If that, for instance, just for hypothetically, run from $60 to $90,
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that's a 50%
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increase in the oil price, which is the largest portion of the inflation bucket,
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which is going to have a massive, massive, massive effect on, I would say,
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the global economy and decision-making coming from the US.
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Yeah, so I'm still very, very comfortable having my gold.
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But I do think that if you got in now and you bet the farm, just...
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Be careful.
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We could see, and that's what you said as well, Lindsay, we could see a further
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retracement.
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This drop might not be over for now.
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It's a tiny blip on a chart.
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And don't forget the gold price has been in a bull market for years.
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And we're talking about days now, so I wouldn't worry about it at all.
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Lick your wounds, as I've said.
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I think it's the third time I've said that.
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But they will heal and gold will go up again.
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I won't.
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you to briefly have a look at a couple of shares on the JSC today.
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Runnet, Famous Brands and Hulamin.
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Any of those catch your eye?
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Let's take one or two of them.
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Famous Brands, that had the interim financial results.
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Very similar, I want to say very similar to the Pashini Group because then would
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have made a major drop.
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And this is out there that don't know famous brands.
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This is very well-known, very well-known brands.
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I mean, it's Steers, Debonairs, and what's that fish away?
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Fish away, yeah.
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Fish away, yeah.
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But, I mean, it's maybe appropriate.
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I mean, we've got this 5 o'clock shadow on a Wednesday, and we're talking about
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famous brands.
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We should maybe call it Wacky Wednesday because that's what Steers are more famous
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for.
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You know the best burger?
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I like Whopper.
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I'm talking about brands here.
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I like Whopper.
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I've gone off McDonald's.
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I used to love a Big Mac or a quarter pounder with cheese.
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But now Whopper is my favorite of the mass market brands.
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But a Steers Burger, a Steers King Burger.
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Oh, God.
17:08
Skulk.
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World class.
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World class.
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It's just a benchmark.
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It's just a benchmark.
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It's, it's, uh, It's always such a just a comforting thing to either buy yourself a
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Steers with those Steers chips.
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Oh, you know what I feel like now?
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Anyway, we'll be digressing.
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No, what do you feel like now?
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A Steers burger?
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I feel like a Steers burger.
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You're going to get one, aren't you?
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I'm going to be honest.
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I most probably am.
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Anyway, famous brand.
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It's also known for its disastrous expansion when it got too cocky and it
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bought something called the Gourmet Burger Company, GBK.
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uh gbc in the in the uk i went to one of their shops and quite honestly they were
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no different to anywhere else and
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that's what it was they overpaid and that set them back enormously so they're famous
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for that but they're also famous
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for some really good brands and would
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you be looking at this one after having seen the results skulk um it's it's with
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all due respect it's
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it's it's a smallish company and it's.
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It is cyclical.
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But, I mean, you're right.
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They did get it totally wrong.
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But they're still struggling with the UK businesses, just for interest's sake.
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They're still struggling with that.
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I think that was down something like 6%.
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But it's such a small portion.
18:25
I thought I forgot the dot in front of me.
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No.
18:29
So, if you look at their restaurants, they've got in total 3,008 restaurants
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across 20 countries.
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So, Africa, by far the largest component, 2,666.
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of this 3,008 restaurants.
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UK, only 58.
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So it's such a small portion now.
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When I look at it,
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so things that stood out for me that I think they can be positive on, I mean,
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they've got very little debt.
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They've actually managed to reduce the debt over this, let's call it, past year.
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They're sitting with, it's got 300 odd million in cash.
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and I've got a bit of cash on the balance sheet.
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It's still growing their dividends, that's positive.
19:15
Revenue was neither here nor there.
19:19
When you grow your revenue by let's go 6%, you know it's been a market that hasn't
19:25
been,
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it's been a tough market in South Africa.
19:28
People, when you've got 33 out of the third of your official people in a country
19:35
sitting without jobs,
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unemployment, And they called it unofficially much probably closer to 60%.
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Then the likes, people are going to struggle to go and shop at the Pashini
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Group and they're
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going to struggle to buy at places like Steers and Debonairs.
19:48
But still, I think they've been able to manage this environment very, very well.
19:54
And considering the return on equity of 41%, like I said, sort of cash plow,
20:00
I thought they managed this really well.
20:04
I know you love your outlooks.
20:05
I know, know you love your outlooks.
20:07
when I look at the outlook of the financial report,
20:12
they mentioned the word they're cautiously optimistic for financial 2026.
20:17
So they still believe that they feel stronger.
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So let's see.
20:25
It's something that I'll monitor, but not something I'll be invested in.
20:29
I just put up my Steers burger screen to have a look at and see what the menu was.
20:36
And it's frozen and it's frozen everything else on my.
20:40
I can't turn my laptop on and off again because I'm recording on it.
20:44
So you're going to have to do some numbers for me.
20:46
Anyway, I mentioned two other names, and that was Renit and also Hulamin.
20:52
Go ahead with, as I say, briefly with those two, please, if you can.
20:57
Renit, I'll touch on Renit.
20:58
I think that looked really good.
21:02
I mean, they're sitting also with a massive, massive cash pile.
21:08
when you look at the Their discount to NAV is around about 38% now.
21:14
We know they've been unlocking value for investors quite aggressively over the past
21:21
two, three years.
21:23
And I think they've been doing it, doing successful.
21:25
So when I look at this one, I do feel positive.
21:30
I think they've been doing well.
21:33
And at a 38% discount to NAV, I don't own it, just by the way.
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I don't own it.
21:40
34% discount to NAV currently.
21:44
3 billion euros in cash, which is 80% of NAV, just for interest.
21:51
If you tell me what am I doing, you may not hold this.
21:54
You either need to buy or sell.
21:56
I will buy this in a blink.
22:01
It's looking good.
22:03
Target prices on Bloomberg, they've got it currently at 632 rand.
22:08
There's still some upside if the analysts are 100% correct.
22:14
So, yeah, it's looking good.
22:16
I don't look at the elements.
22:17
So, yeah, those two we'll need to do.
22:20
Okay.
22:22
Interesting company and interesting shareholder list as well, if you have a
22:26
look at it.
22:27
Skulk, you're going to have to tell me some prices now.
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I'll call them out and you've got them.
22:32
Have you got them to handle on a screen where you can easily do it without
22:36
changing screens?
22:38
Because normally I'll start with the currencies, the dollar against the, sorry,
22:43
the dollar round,
22:45
euro round, British pound against the round.
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Have you got those three?
22:49
If I can get them, just hold them for a second.
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There we go.
22:53
Open this screen.
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I know that this is going to cause me problems later on.
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This whole screen business.
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I can't open anything.
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It's a virus on steers, everybody.
23:03
Not in the burgers, but on the website.
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Oh, where would I go?
23:07
Do you want the rest?
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No, we don't have to do it.
23:11
Do you know what we should do?
23:12
Because it's a technical problem on my side, why don't we go to the ups and downs
23:16
on the JSC?
23:18
I know the downside, mostly the diggers, the gold miners.
23:20
Go through the downside first, and then the upside, because I see Sasol's in
23:24
there.
23:24
So off you go with the downside, please.
23:26
They're all, you're 100% right.
23:28
That's all diggers.
23:31
It's been a bad day for the diggers.
23:35
On the downside, you've got 5.88% down by Durban River, deep 5.34% down by Harmony,
23:41
Anglo Gold down 5.34%.
23:44
Then we've got Cash Build in there.
23:46
I don't know when did they start digging.
23:48
They most probably sell stuff to be digging, but they were down 4.2%, and then
23:54
just shortly after that,
23:56
3.1% down for Goldfield.
23:58
So, yeah, it's been a bad day.
24:00
Just for interest's sake, I mean...
24:02
I just had a quick look while we did this.
24:05
It's actually crazy.
24:07
If you look at the top performers for year-to-date, it's still very much all
24:13
these diggers.
24:13
Despite the massive pullback, we've still got Sabanya Stillwater up year-to-date
24:20
over 200%,
24:22
Agner Gold 194%, Goldfields 186%.
24:24
So even with this massive pullback,
24:27
it's still dominating the top of the pops for 2025.
24:31
far.
24:32
But if you look at October.
24:33
Suddenly in October, if you look at the top 20 worst performing stocks, you know,
24:38
all of them are in there.
24:40
You have Altera, Impala Platinum, Sabania Stillwater, Goldfields, Durban, the Red
24:45
Airport.
24:45
And just for interest sake, I think a week or two ago, we actually threw in two extra
24:51
stocks.
24:52
as companies you couldn't do without in your portfolio, namely NASPAS and Proces,
24:58
they also end there.
25:00
They're also one of the worst performing stocks in October.
25:02
So, yeah, you could see all the darlings are taking a bit of a breather.
25:08
That's it.
25:09
Ready for the Christmas boom.
25:11
Okay, so we got that.
25:12
What was it?
25:13
Upside now.
25:14
Let's end on a cheery note.
25:17
So, René, after the great update, René, up 8.1% for today.
25:24
So great, great results.
25:26
Market are buying into it.
25:28
One of the worst performing stocks in October, namely Sassel, that had a
25:34
wonderful day, 4.5% up.
25:36
Sapi, 4% after the news that we heard yesterday that
25:39
Coronation is up their stake in Sapi.
25:42
Just for interest sake, that had a positive effect on Sapi's share price
25:49
today, up 4%.
25:51
Ronit, up 3.5%.
25:51
And ending the top five, Alt Mutual, 3.2% up for today.
25:57
Very good.
25:58
Gold price, please, before we go.
26:01
Before we go to the indices, give me the gold price.
26:04
Let's quickly just open my eyes.
26:07
See, I'm not prepared today to read you the commercial price.
26:12
You sound very discombobulated.
26:14
I can do it actually before you because I can do it.
26:16
That's a beautiful word.
26:17
What's that word, discombobulated?
26:18
Discombobulated.
26:20
That'll throw people, if you ever want to throw something in.
26:23
Gold price 4,044.94 at the moment, down 1.56%,
26:28
or $64.40 on my screen.
26:30
Flashing away.
26:31
Investing.com is also very good.
26:33
It's not a plug for them.
26:34
I've got no affiliation with them.
26:35
It's just a really, really good service.
26:38
Silver, though, holding.
26:39
It's slightly up on the day.
26:42
Another big story that I get from investing.com, which pops up on my screen
26:47
all the time.
26:49
is beyond meat.
26:51
Don't know if you ever followed that company.
26:53
It was one that made plant-based burgers.
26:55
And everyone was excited about it.
26:57
It's not a steers burger.
26:58
It's not a steers burger.
26:59
Of course it's not.
27:00
I know that.
27:01
You know that.
27:01
Blind tasting.
27:02
I know a plant from a cow.
27:06
I'm a kid.
27:07
Yeah.
27:08
Um.
27:11
They were in the doldrums, nobody wanted it, it was just a fad and then suddenly
27:16
Walmart came out and said yeah we're gonna
27:18
take all your stuff we're gonna distribute it 150%
27:20
on Monday I think it was yesterday 100 today another 100% people just can't buy
27:26
enough of this stuff.
27:28
Interesting the way that the way that markets work.
27:31
Imagine having phoned a client up ages ago and saying where it's 80 cents now there's
27:37
nothing we can do saying it's
27:39
three dollars 62.
27:41
What a lovely thing sometimes to be a fund manager.
27:43
Skulk, JSE Indices, please, and Value Traded.
27:47
So JSE today closed at 108,837 points,
27:52
literally just being negative, down 65 points, down six basis points.
27:58
Resources, as expected, that was down 2.4%, while the rest of the indices were
28:04
all in the green.
28:06
The Industrial Index up 0.6%, Financials up 1.2%.
28:08
to 1% and the asset property index also up 1.2%.
28:14
So a solid day.
28:15
When you look at the value trade in the market, not a slow day at all.
28:19
Just remember yesterday we had a $38 billion and usually when you've got such a
28:26
large trading day, you sort of get a bit of a breather today,
28:28
but that was not the case today.
28:30
Today another $37 billion traded through the JSC.
28:31
That's fantastic news.
28:33
What a day.
28:34
Really good.
28:35
Skulk, thank you very much for your time as always.
28:38
We won't be speaking next week.
28:39
We'll speak the week after.
28:41
Skulk Lowe is Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.
28:45
And that was the five o'clock shadow.
28:46
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28:53
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28:55
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