Latest / 3 Martini Lunch – Political Humor & Commentary / Plot to Attack Texas State Capitol Thwarted One Day in Advance

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Plot to Attack Texas State Capitol Thwarted One Day in Advance · 3 Martini Lunch – Political Humor & Commentary

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Three Martini Lunch.
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: Grab a stool next to Greg Karambas of Radio America
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: and Jim Garrity of National Review. Three Martini's coming up.
• 0:13
  Speaker 3: So glad you're with us for the Thursday edition of
• 0:15
  Speaker 3: the Three Martini Lunch. We are now in October, which
• 0:18
  Speaker 3: means we're just a little more than a month away
• 0:20
  Speaker 3: from Election Day. Jim is still glassy-eyed from celebrating the
• 0:24
  Speaker 3: dawn of the fiscal new year. So, Jim, happy fiscal
• 0:28
  Speaker 3: new year to you. I know you celebrate heartily every
• 0:30
  Speaker 3: single year. even though we're going to be probably $ 2
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: trillion in debt again this year.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: We always watch the ball drop and the interest rates
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: go up. And the national debt reached some new $ 40
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: trillion and change number.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: Yes, yes. It's very depressing in the fiscal new year.
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: But as it relates to Election Day, we're going to
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: be looking at a number of different Senate races today.
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: First of all, let's head over to, you know, we've
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: got all these states that supposedly lean red that a
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: lot of folks are hoping or thinking may actually turn blue.
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: We'll get to that in the second martini. But there's
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: a reliably blue state that has a very decent chance
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: of going Republican. And that is Minnesota. Tina Smith retiring.
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: The very weird and also tied to the Tim Walz administration,
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic nominee. Won that
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: nomination easily. but she is locked pretty much in a
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: deadlock with our friend Michelle Tafoya, the Republican nominee. Jim,
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: over at 270 to win, you look at the last
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: five polls. Qantas Insights, 48-44 Flanagan. Coefficient, 43-42 Flanagan. SurveyUSA,
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: deadlocked 42-42. Insider Advantage, 46-45 for Flanagan. Overall average, 44.8
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: to 43.3. So obviously you'd rather be ahead than behind,
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: but Tafoya is within the margin of error all over
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: the place here. Keith Ellison, the Democratic attorney general, is
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: also struggling. So, you know, if the headwinds in this
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: country were a little bit different, I think Michelle Tafoya
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: would probably be ahead. But when essentially the incumbent party
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: is not even at 45 percent on the average, that's
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: not too good for them. And one of the reasons
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: that I think Michelle Tafoya is hanging in there is
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: because for the most part, she doesn't come across as
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: an ideologue. She just released this ad, for example.
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: Minnesota's been run by the same political establishment for too long,
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: and it's not working. This isn't red versus blue. It's
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: right versus wrong. I'm Michelle Tafoya. I'll be an independent
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: voice for Minnesota because we don't need more of the
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: same politicians making the same excuses. We need better health care,
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: safer neighborhoods, great schools, and high-wage jobs. I'll bring Democrats
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: and Republicans together to get it done. I'm Michelle Tafoya,
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: and I approve this message.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: So if you're a Republican running in a blue state,
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: the it's not red versus blue is a pretty good theme.
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: She's narrating her own ads, which most candidates don't do.
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: So that's an advantage that she has over Flanagan. And so,
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: you know, Minnesota is going to be tough no matter what.
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: But she's putting about as good of an effort into
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: this as you can.
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: Greg, there are a couple of things we can take
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: away from this race, even though we're still about a
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: month or so from Election Day. One big lesson is
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: if you appear on our podcast as one of our
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: rare guests, You have an excellent chance of victory unless
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: you're running for.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Mayor of New York City.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: Because Sununu got reelected after his appearance, right?
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: So a bit more seriously, I.
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: Had said Michelle Tafoya was probably about the best candidate
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: Republicans could hope for. She's well known, got high name ID,
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: but not from traditional politics. And I would note that, like, look,
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: you mentioned the Keith Ellison being in trouble. Unfortunately, in
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: the governor's race, it looks like Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: is running well ahead of Republican Lisa Demuth. So one
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: of the interesting things is that, you know, Amy Klobuchar,
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, a Democrat, undoubtedly. But she can say, look,
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: I've been in Washington. I didn't have anything to do
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: with the decisions of the state government over the last
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: four years. So in a very strange way, usually you're
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: trying to run as an outsider in Senate race. In
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: this strange one, Amy Klobuchar says, look, I am an
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: outsider to the state capitol.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: I have nothing to do.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: With what's been going on lately and can be a
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: little bit more the candidate of change. But I think
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: the fact that Peggy Flanagan is running so much worse
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: than Klobuchar is indicates that the fraud scandals have really
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: damaged her. Obviously, Tim Walz was thinking about running for re-election,
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: chose not to. And you can even maybe say Keith
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: Ellison is probably in worse shape. There are Minnesotans, not
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: just Republicans, who are upset about the fraud scandals and
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: feel like they've had a very poorly run state government.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: Is this enough to guarantee Michelle Tafoya is going to win?
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: Probably not. But look, in a year where almost nothing
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: seems to be going right for Republicans... And we'll talk
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: a bit about these red states in a second. I'm
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: not as convinced as some of the hype is. But,
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: you know, Minnesota is a traditionally Democratic state. And here
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: you got a Republican candidate who's hanging right around neck
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: and neck That's right. I'll take that. And if you're Tafoya,
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: you just keep pushing. You just keep pounding that message.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: You keep tying Peggy Flanagan to every fraud scandal and
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: every problem the state government has and say, look, why
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: would you expect things to get better? She's been in
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: the job. You know what kind of performance she can
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: turn in. And it's not a good one. That's a
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: great message and a decent shot to win. And if
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: she manages to win this Senate race, all of a
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: sudden the Democrats' hopes of winning the Senate get way
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: more complicated.
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah, no question about it. And so we hope that
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: she continues to do well and we'll see if those
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: poll numbers move in her favor even more. But neck
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: and neck in Minnesota in a national environment like this
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: is probably better than we could have hoped for. But
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: now we'll be looking at what the Democrats are hoping
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: to pick up, but might find elusive here in our
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: next martini. But before that, let's talk about a critically
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: important issue, and that is the right to life. And,
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: you know, for many people, There are unexpected pregnancies. And
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: then what do you do in that situation? You're scared.
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: You're unsure. How can I afford this? Who's going to
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: be there to support me? All these questions go through
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: the mind of these expecting moms. And so they need help.
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: And it's important that they get the truth before the
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: abortion industry starts. tells them their lies. So what if
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: in the exact moment that she's searching online for answers,
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: you could be the person that shows her compassion, support,
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: and another option? That's exactly what Human Coalition does.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: Human Coalition meets these women at that critical moment. When
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: a woman reaches out, she's connected with trained nursing and
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: counseling professionals. Nothing gets outsourced. Human Coalition operates its own
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: clinics and works with a nationwide network of pregnancy centers
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: trained to help women facing those difficult decisions. Their support
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: doesn't stop after the baby is born. In fact, once
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: they have a woman on the phone, they help her
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: choose life about 90% of the time.
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: Human Coalition has already helped more than 35,000 women choose life,
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: but of course there are so many more that haven't
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: been reached yet. It only takes a monthly donation of
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: $ 26 to create a life-saving moment, a moment where a
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: mother receives support instead of pressure. So be her lifeline.
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: Create a life-saving moment. Go to humancoalition.org slash martini. That
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: is humancoalition.org slash martini and give today. All right, Jim,
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: let's talk about some of these other states that traditionally
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: Republicans have won pretty comfortably in recent cycles. But as always,
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: Democrats are licking their chops, thinking they might get some
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: states here, some Senate seats that they just haven't had
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: in a very long time. And that includes places like
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: South Carolina, where Darlene Graham has admittedly been less than impressive,
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: as we talked about during the primary. So they think
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: Annie Andrews, as extreme as she is on trans issues
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: and many, many other things, Medicare for all, actually has
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: a chance there in South Carolina. Some even think Angie
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: Nixon in Florida may have a chance. In the Midwest
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: is where they really, really think that they've got a chance.
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: Places like Nebraska with Dan Osborne, the independent to the Democrats,
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: of course, are bankrolling and supporting in a number of
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: different ways. They're trying the independent route in South Dakota
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: as well, thinking that might help. They're also thinking maybe
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: Kansas with another lefty pastor against Roger Marshall. And so
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: On and on it goes, though. They're trying to pick
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: off some traditionally deep red states here. But as you
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: point out in the jolt today, Jim, the numbers are
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: what they are. And even in a year where people
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: aren't as enthusiastic about voting for Republicans, that's a tall
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: mountain decline for Democrats.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, look, you know, again, I don't want this to
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: get misconstrued. I still think Democrats are going to have
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: a good midterm. They're probably going to win. Almost certainly
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: everybody kind of seems to think they're going to win
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: the House. And the Senate seems 50-50. But I do
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: feel like we are at like the apex of Democratic
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: hype about a bunch of these Senate races. The numbers
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: in these states are really daunting if you're the Democratic
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: candidate or the independent, wink, wink, candidate in a bunch
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: of these Midwestern states. Just kind of beginning in Florida. Look,
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: you can find polling that has the Democrat David Jolly
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: ahead of Byron Donalds in the gubernatorial race. You can
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: find polling that has U.S. Senator Ashley Moody, who was
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: appointed to that seat ahead of Angie Nixon, but barely ahead. Now, look,
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: you know, first of all, I mean, Ron DeSantis won
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: this state by a huge margin.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: I added it up, actually.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: His margin of victory, if the margin of victory was
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: a state, it would be the.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: 40th largest state in the union, right?
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: If all the people who voted for DeSantis in 2022
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: decided to form their own state, that state would be
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: the 26th largest in the state of the union.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: So he won by a ton, right? But here's the thing.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: The state has 5.6 million registered Republicans, 4 million registered Democrats.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: Those of you who are good at math have already
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: figured it out. That's 1.6 million registered. Now, is every
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: registered Republican guaranteed to vote for the Republican?
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: No.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Is every registered Democrat guaranteed to vote for the Republican?
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: No.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: But by and large, registered Republicans vote for Republicans, registered
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: Democrats vote for Democrats. If you're the Democrat, you need
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: to win independence by a huge margin. It's the same
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: pattern in a bunch of these states that I'll talk about.
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: So like, should this be a closer than usual year
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: for Democrats in Florida? Yeah, I don't think this is
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: enough to put them over the top. Nebraska, you could
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: pretty much rerun the tape from my assessment of it
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: last time around. Dan Osborne released a bunch of internal polls.
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: He convinced people that this was going to be a
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: very close race. When the votes were counted, Republican Deb
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: Fischer won 53.3% to.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: 46.7%, a margin of more than 62,000 votes. Is that
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: a guarantee that Republican Pete Ricketts is going to win reelection?
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: No, but it says we probably should, you know, be
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: a little skeptical of these internal polls released by the
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: Osborne campaign. Lo and behold, an internal poll from the
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: pro-Osborne super PAC put Osborne ahead by one percentage point.
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: Time is a flat circle, as they said in the
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: first season of True Detective. Everything we've ever done is
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: going to happen again.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: And here we go again.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: Dan Osborne is close in Nebraska. Again, registered voters. It's
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: just a very Republican state. You really need things to
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: break their way. I see a very similar dynamic in
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: South Dakota where independent... By the way, Brian Bangs ran
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: as a Democrat for Senate four years ago.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Nothing's changed. This guy is a Democrat. Oh, but I'm
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: an independent now.
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: Oh, okay.
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: He's releasing internal polls. It shows a close race. Now,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: there's a new poll out that's not an internal poll.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: Has rounds ahead 44% to 38%. If you're an incumbent Republican,
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: would you rather be at or above 50%? Sure. But
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: if the end of the top rivals at 38%, that's
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: like not that much ahead of a third of the votes.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: So again, I'm not really all that worried about South Dakota.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: By the way, the early vote registered Republicans are returning
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: ballots and coming in to vote more than registered Democrats. Again,
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: not surprising considering the registered voter advantage that Republicans have
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: in that state. So again, I'm not really that worried
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: about South Dakota. Similar story in Kansas. Is Adam Hamilton
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: closer than usual to Roger Marshall?
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: But the state has about 496,000 registered Democrats and 891,000
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: registered Republicans, almost twice as many registered Republicans as Democrats.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: And that's these numbers are as of June. So I
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: do this, you know, as the kids say, the math
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: ain't math.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: And I actually do.
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: This is to all the kids. When do you use
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: long division? When do you use percentages? I made the assumption,
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: let's say 90% of Republicans vote for the Republican. Let's
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: assume 90% of the Democrats vote for the Democrat vote.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: The independents in this state, basically, Hamilton needs them to
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: split three to one in his favor. Now, you can
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: be a Democrat. You can win independents. You can win
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: independents maybe even 60-40 in a year that's going to
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: be bad for Republicans like this. But three to one,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: you almost never see a split that lopsided amongst independents. So, again,
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to worry about that. Similarly, you talked
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: about Darlene Graham down in South Carolina. Sure, it makes sense.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: She was appointed, not elected. She did not look great
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: in that debate. She did not win the runoff by
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: a particularly high margin. Greg, I remember 2020. Lindsey Graham
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: was taking on Jamie Harrison, who went on to become
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: the Democratic National Committee chairman. Quinnipiac, not an internal poll,
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: but Quinnipiac released three polls that had that race tied.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: Most of the other pollsters had Lindsey Graham, but like
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: around the margin of error, four or five points higher.
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: On election day, Lindsey Graham won by 10 points. South
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: Carolina is a very Republican state. Does this guarantee Darlene
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: Graham is going to win? No, but like, boy, you
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: would need everything to break right for the Democrats. You
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: need everything to break wrong for Darlene Graham. And oh,
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: by the way, Alan Wilson is probably going to win
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: the gubernatorial race by a really healthy margin. I'm not
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: going to lose that much sleep about the South Carolina
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: Senate race. So again, this is not, you know, still
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: worried about Iowa, still worried about Ohio. There are states
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: like Pennsylvania where Republicans were really hoping to give Josh
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: Shapiro a tough race by nominating a candidate with the
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: best possible surname, Stacey Garrity.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: She's a state treasurer. Not really.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: Like, it's more competitive than last time, but it's not
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: really looking like it's still going to be a tough
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: year for Republicans. But I am selling, not buying the
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: stock when it comes to the idea of these, you know,
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: red states where Democrats are going to make these huge upsets.
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you're right about the 90%. The question is,
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: what percentage of the Republicans actually show up? Because when
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: your party's in power, you get a little complacent, maybe
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: even a little bit miffed about some things that didn't
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: get done, which is fair. But at the same time,
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: who do you want going forward? Do you want the
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: people who disappointed you or the people you know will
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: go in the opposite direction from you? So if the
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: Republicans can amp up their turnout machine, especially in those states,
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: they're going to be in very good shape. But what
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: we saw in some primaries around the country is that
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: the Democrats are super fired up. And the Republicans, not
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: so much. I mean, in the gubernatorial race in Michigan,
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: it's like a 500,000 vote turnout difference. You have to
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: do better than that when it comes to the general election.
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: Now, let's keep in mind, at least in Michigan, very
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: competitive Democratic Senate primary, not terribly competitive Republican primary. Similar
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: story in the governor's race. There are reasons one party
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: has higher turnout than another in circumstances like that. Traditionally,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: base voters come home. So I think this is the
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: apex of Democratic hype. And between now and Election Day,
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: you're going to start seeing people saying, oh, OK, Republicans
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: are tuning in. Republicans are more likely to vote. Republicans
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: are early voting and all that kind of stuff. So
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: this is this is my optimistic take. And I do
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: see areas where I feel like the Democratic hype is
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: likely to disappoint when all is said and done.
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah. And you've got some analysts and you've got some
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: polling outfits, I think it's fair to say, who have
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: a preference in how these things turn out. But as
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: you get close to election day, it's more important for
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: them to be right than for them to get the
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: results that their clients want. So that helps their credibility
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: going forward. So you're right. We're about to get a
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: shift in that regard. So, all right. When we come back,
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: a Texas twofer. Stay with us. All right, Jim, let's
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: talk Texas a little bit, one in terms of terrorism,
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: one in terms of the Senate race there, which we
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: did address a little bit earlier in the week as
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: we talked about the latest blasphemy from James Tallarico. But
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: today we're going to be talking about Ken Paxton. But
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: in a second, first of all, let's go to NBC5
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: Dallas-Fort Worth with our third terrorism story of the week, Jim.
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: We had the Royal Air Force Base in England, and
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: then we had obviously the attempted suicide slash terrorism of
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: that fly Dubai plane that miraculously was saved. by passengers
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: and the pilot who somehow got the cockpit door open
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: while he was being stabbed. But in Texas now, the
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: Texas Department of Public Safety has confirmed that officers have
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: foiled a plan to attack the Texas state capitol in Austin.
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: According to Texas DPS, officers received credible information about an
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: individual planning a violent attack on the Texas state capitol
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: on Thursday, October 1, 2026. And by my calendar, Jim,
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: that's today. Texas DPS said their Criminal Investigations Division special
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: agents worked alongside the FBI to investigate the validity of
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: the threat and the circumstances surrounding the attack. Around 3 a.m.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: on Wednesday, DPS SWAT arrested 40-year-old Benny Caldera Jr. at
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: his residence in Converse, about 15 miles northeast of downtown
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: San Antonio. According to an arrest warrant affidavit, DPS officers
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: spoke to Caldera's friend who said he had, quote, made
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: verbal threats to assault the Texas State Capitol building. Caldera's
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: friend told DPS officers that Caldera said, quote, I love
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: you if you don't see me again and explain that
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: I'm going to the Capitol and I'm going to shoot
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: it up. He also said that he was angry at AIPAC.
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee, and that, quote, these people
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: have to be exterminated, unquote. So, Jim, he's actually being held,
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: unlike the suspects in Britain. And so we'll get to
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: Ken Paxton in just a second. But something tells me
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: this is not quite going to get the media attention
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: that it should, given the circumstances.
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: Well, first of all, Greg, thank God this plot stopped.
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: And secondly, thank God this plot was stopped and was
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: not scheduled for late last week in Austin.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Since I was there. But no, like this, you imagine, it's.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: A weird bumper crop of a week for terrorists. Whether
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: or not you want to classify this guy as Islamist,
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: he definitely is anti-Semitic. By the way, if you're really,
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: really mad at AIPAC, you're going after the Texas State Capitol?
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Really? That's just kind of silly.
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: Look, besides being a terrorist and being a terrible person
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: and an aspiring mass murderer, Do you understand what gets
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: decided at the federal level and what gets decided at
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: the state level? I'm sure Texas probably has like some
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: office of trade that interacts with the Israelis a bunch.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: But really, if you're looking for the AIPAC central power
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: structure in Washington, you're really not looking at the Texas
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: state capitol, which, by the way, architecturally spectacular and may
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: it stand for another thousand years. You know, look, you
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: kind of knew with the elections getting closer that people
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: were going to get more hyped up. And I hate to,
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: hopefully this is the last sort of incident we hear,
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: but unfortunately we have a whole bunch of, you know,
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: both elected officials and commentators who just are rhetorical arsonists
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: who always pour gasoline on a fire, who always want
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: to get people angrier and more fired up and more, uh,
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: this is the most important election of our lifetimes. And
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: if the other guys win, it's the end of America
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: as we know it. Uh, you know, and like, if you,
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: if you genuinely believe that stuff, well then, well, Why
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: wouldn't you mass murder someone if you believe that their
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: winning an election was going to destroy the country and
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: things like that? So thank God for law enforcement doing
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: effective work in this case. And hopefully we don't hear
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: more examples. But reason to suspect this is probably not
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: the last case of anti-Semitic or pro-Islamist violence. we're going
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: to see on U.S. soil in the months to come.
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: Well, Jim, I for one am shocked that this guy,
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: this lunatic, was not a constitutional scholar who understood the
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: roles of the federal and state government. I'm sure you
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: are also flabbergasted by that. It's usually the uninformed and
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: unhinged like this guy. But let's shift over to Ken
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: Paxton has actually been some slightly better polls for Ken Paxton,
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: moving even or just about even in some independent polls,
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: and his own internals have him up three. You want
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: your internals to be a little bit better than that.
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: But in any event, this race is going to be
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: tighter than it normally is, as we've said many, many times.
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: But he was asked, I'm not even sure who asked
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: him the question here, about whether Trump, even in Texas,
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: is a drag on the ticket and on his campaign.
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: And here's what is considered secret audio of the question
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: and Paxton's response.
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: Do you feel like, and all these guys know, but
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: do you feel like he's a little bit of a drag?
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: So, to be honest with you, the numbers, in case,
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: when we did that convention, we dropped our numbers.
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: Everybody had new jobs.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: By now, yeah, not us.
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: Not us. So nothing we can do to turn that around.
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: Everybody's numbers went down after that convention. The slug on
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: that headline was Paxton trashes Trump. That might be a
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: little extreme. He's obviously saying the convention was more of
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: a harm than a good, which doesn't necessarily reflect well
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: on the president. Jim, I don't think most people even
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: paid attention to that convention.
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: No.
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: Down there. But what do you make of Paxton's response there?
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: Well, I was going to say, go figure that putting
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: two nights of a convention up against the start of
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: NFL season didn't attract the huge audience you were looking for.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: Who could have foreseen that? But I don't really think
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: the convention actually hurt Paxton or Republicans or any other
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: Texas Republican or anybody, in part because the viewership was
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: not huge. And two, subsequent to that convention, gas prices
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: kept going up, and diesel went past the $ 6 a.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: Gallon national average.
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: I think that was more, if Republican numbers really have
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: gone down over the last couple of weeks, I think
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: that's a bigger factor than the convention turning people off
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: or something like that. I think the problem is more
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: like the convention was a non-factor. If you're a candidate
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: for office in a really high attention race, you should
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: just assume anytime you're addressing an audience, even if it's
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: behind closed doors, you're probably being surreptitiously recorded Everybody's got
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: a cell phone. Everybody's got a phone that can quietly
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: record things.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: You know.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: And what, yeah, what Paxton says isn't the worst thing
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: in the world. But Greg, based on everything else we
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: know about Paxton, if he loses to Tallarico, we are
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: not going to hear him saying, I am a deeply
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: flawed human being. I am a deeply flawed candidate. I
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: have never been a good fundraiser. I have a lot
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: of scandals. I should never have run for this race.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: You know, even if I have disagreements with John Cornyn,
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: the state would have been better off with almost any
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: other Republican other than Beau French. Like, it'd be nice
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: if he said that. He's not going to say that.
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: He's probably going to say it's all John Cornyn's fault.
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: It's all the NRSC's fault. He may blame Trump. He's
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: going to be a blame thrower. He's just going to
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: say it's everybody's fault against him. I would love to
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: be proven wrong about this, but everything about Ken Paxton
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: suggests he never takes responsibility. He never admits fault. He
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: never says anything's bad. And he, look, you know, could
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: you put some blame at John Cornyn?
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: Sure.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: John Cornyn should have said, you know, I can't stand
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: Ken Paxton and he leaves a trail of slime everywhere
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: he goes, but we can't let the Democrats win this seat.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: Go vote for the slime ball. It matters.
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: You know, like you could do that kind of backhanded endorsement.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: He could blame, you know, like, you know, is Trump
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: a drag in Texas?
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: Probably.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: Doesn't help to have the president talking about, you know,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: the Lincoln, the White House ballroom and all that kind
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: of stuff. is the NRSC spending enough money in Texas?
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: The NRSC probably figured they wouldn't have to spend anything
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: in Texas because it's Texas, right?
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: So if you want to blame those other factors, sure.
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: But it's very hard to say that the problems don't
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: start and preeminently focus upon the candidate, not just fundraising,
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: not just scandals, just, you know, get out there and
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: campaign more.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: Don't spend July 4th in the United Kingdom, pal.
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, if, Tallarico ends up winning this thing.
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: The Monday morning quarterbacking on this is going to be intense.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: The Monday morning quarterbacking is going to be so good,
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: the Houston Texans will hire him.
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: But if he finds a way to win, then nobody's
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: going to learn anything from this.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: That means we can nominate anybody. Let's find somebody even sleazier.
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: That's right, Paul. Speaking about Monday morning quarterbacking, let's talk
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: about Sunday morning, Sunday afternoon quarterbacking, actually, when we come back,
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: the latest vicious, vicious attack ads on the impending Bears
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: versus Jets game. We'll be right back. All right, Jim,
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: it is Thursday. These very aggressive PACs, third-party organizations, once again,
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: buying time here on the Three Martini Lunch, using our
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: voices through AI technology. to just record very, very intense
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: attacks against the Bears and the Jets. And we have
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: another round of them today. Here is one attacking the
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: Jets from the pro Bears perspective. In Chicago, when there's
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: a problem, it's addressed decisively. As Sean Connery's character in
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: The Untouchables reminded us, they pull a knife, you pull
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital,
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: you send one of his to the morgue. That's the
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: Chicago way. That's decisive. Rip the Band-Aid right off. And
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: while a tad extreme for football, we've seen that successful,
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: decisive mentality from Mike Ditka, Buddy Ryan, and now Ben Johnson.
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: In New York, it's just the opposite. It's always a
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: Band-Aid approach. Adam Gase proves he's a disaster from the start? Ah,
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: keep him two years. They used that same Band-Aid approach
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: with Todd Bowles, Robert Sala, and others. It's also been
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: a Band-Aid approach in keeping overpaid and underperforming players. Nothing
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: but Band-Aids. But what do you expect when the Jets
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: owner is famous for making Band-Aids? Choose real leadership. Choose
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: the Bears. The Ground the Jets Pack is responsible for
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: the content of this advertising. Adam Gase. First time Adam
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: Gase has been referenced all week. I'm surprised, actually.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: Greg, I first want to observe Ground the Jets Pack
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: has a terrible Sean Connery impression.
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: Shameful. There's just no excuses, you know?
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, by the way, the most Scottish-sounding Irish cop we've
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: ever seen in Chicago. But I'm not going to give
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: the filmmakers too much gripe for that. It was a
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: great performance. But yeah, so, okay.
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: Good to know.
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: Because we're talking about bad coaches, huh? Okay. Good to know.
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: All right. Now it's time to take aim at the
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: Bears from the Pro Jets' perspective.
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: In these uncertain times, don't you wish that some things
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: were more reliable? The Chicago Bears used to be. You
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: used to know that they would have a great defense
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: and a great running game. And they had quarterbacks and
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: wide receivers who existed. They were mostly there to appear
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: on the team photo. The Chicago Bears remain the only
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: franchise in NFL history to never have a quarterback throw
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: for 4,000 yards in a single season. But Caleb Williams
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: is changing that proud tradition. He has the ninth highest
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: passing yards in Chicago Bears history. And he's played two seasons.
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: Isn't life unpredictable enough? Tell the Bears to play football
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: the way they always have. running it up the middle
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: 40 times a game. Paid for by Americans United for
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: a Bears defeat on October 4th.
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: Well, Jim, that ad is not wrong. The Bears have
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: never had a 4,000-yard quarterback. I would prefer to have
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: a dominant running game to an air assault. But not
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: only that, our top wide receiver ever in the history
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: of this franchise, more than 100 years, barely over 5,000 yards,
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: and he retired in the 60s.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: Oh, really?
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: I would have guessed Willie Galt, but okay. Who, as
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: a wide receiver, was just a phenomenal track runner.
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: But we'll see what happens in the new era here.
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: But yes, yes, the Bears are taking a different dimension
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: with Ben Johnson, who's slightly psychotic, but he's getting results.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: Greg, isn't it odd that both of these packs happen
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: to have enough advertising money for five days and only
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: five days?
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Very convenient.
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: Yes, yes. The timing just works out very well. Very
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: well for them and for our schedule. It's just very
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: convenient how that worked out. So anyway, we'll see what
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: they have to say for their closing arguments tomorrow. Jim,
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: until then, see you.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: See you tomorrow, Greg.
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: Jim Garrity, National Review. I'm Greg Karumbas of Radio America.
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: Thanks so much for being with us today. Please be
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: sure to subscribe to the 3 Martini Lunch podcast. If
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: you don't already, tell your friends about us as well.
• 28:21
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• 28:23
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• 28:25
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• 28:28
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• 28:30
  Speaker 3: at Greg Karumbas. Have a terrific Thursday. Join us again
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: Friday for the next Three Martini Lunch.