Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 327 - 7/31/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:19Hello, and welcome to episode 327 of the All Systems Go sports
- 0:25Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:28I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:36Happy Thirsty Thursday. It is the final day in the month
- 0:40of July before we turn the page to August.
- 0:43It's also a huge day cuz it's the MLB trade deadline.
- 0:46But most importantly, guys, unless you've been living under
- 0:49a rock, maybe you don't know. Maybe you do know.
- 0:52You probably know cuz you're a sports bettor and you pay
- 0:54attention to what's going on. But guess what?
- 0:56Today is today is the return of the NFL.
- 0:59That's right, we have an NFL game, an official game.
- 1:03Yes, it's pre season, yes, it's the Hall of Fame game, but it is
- 1:06a real NFL game. The lines are up, the splits are
- 1:09out. I got betting system matches.
- 1:11We have an actual NFL football game to bet on tonight.
- 1:14Chargers and the Detroit Lions in the annual Hall of Fame game,
- 1:188:00 tonight. So that's pretty exciting.
- 1:20Obviously, MLB trade deadline today.
- 1:22If you're a baseball fan like me, you're wondering what your
- 1:24team's going to do. Are my Red Sox going to make a
- 1:26move? Who knows, but there's only
- 1:28three games today. Now I do have a three pack of
- 1:31sweats for you. There are two MLB games later
- 1:33today that I do have a play on with some good sharp line
- 1:36movement. But I do have a play on what
- 1:38you're most excited about the NFL Hall of Fame game.
- 1:41So I'm going to give you kind of a word of caution on the side.
- 1:44But I do have a play on the total and the total is very
- 1:47interesting. It's been on the move.
- 1:48We got some good bet splits. When you hear about this coach
- 1:51to the over under might be a little bit excited to play this
- 1:54one. And also a really good sharp
- 1:56mush edge from our friends at Juice Rails.
- 1:58So believe it or not, even though we're kind of glued to
- 2:01baseball, we have some football to bet tonight.
- 2:03And you know what? My wife actually called me on
- 2:06her lunch break today and she said, you know, do you want to
- 2:09go meet me and my mom, my mother-in-law out at the mall
- 2:12tonight because we got some returns and we do some shopping.
- 2:15And I was like, well, you know, do you mind if I don't come?
- 2:18And she's like, oh, no worries. No, no, not at all.
- 2:20So secretly I'm like, yes, I get to go to Chipotle, pick up a
- 2:24burrito bowl, come home, sweat the games here with with me and
- 2:28the pup as I wait for the wife to get home.
- 2:30So I guess when you're, you're married in your late 30s, these
- 2:33are the things that excite you. But anyway, guys, 3 pack overall
- 2:36play on the Hall of Fame game and two plays here in Major
- 2:39League Baseball. Now looking back toward last
- 2:41night, kind of a frustrating night. 1 and 2 -, 1 unit.
- 2:44We did have the Red Sox come through with a big winner, 13 to
- 2:47one, Really didn't have to sweat that one at all.
- 2:49But we lost with the Brewers, pretty much a no show.
- 2:52They got rolled by the Cubs and the one that was frustrating was
- 2:55the Orioles because the Orioles had that late movement in their
- 2:58favor. They jumped out to a three
- 2:59nothing lead. They got down, came back and
- 3:02went went up five to three and then their bullpen completely
- 3:06imploded. I think they gave up like 5 or
- 3:08six runs in the 7th or 8th inning.
- 3:10And then they made me have a a glimmer of hope as they mounted
- 3:13a big comeback only to come up short.
- 3:16And it was frustrating too. If if you're watching this game
- 3:18is the Orioles had bases loaded 2 outs and the guy basically
- 3:22should have walked the stupid idiot umpire.
- 3:25Bring on the robots. Idiot umpire calls it a called
- 3:28strike 3 when if you look at the little rectangle the the K zone,
- 3:32the ball was pretty clearly outside.
- 3:35So that was that was kind of annoying.
- 3:36But either way, guys, we're going to keep on grinding here.
- 3:39See if we can start our our NFL year off 1 and O that'll be a
- 3:43nice start to the year with a couple baseball games here as
- 3:46well. So that being said, let's waste
- 3:48no time and start with not baseball.
- 3:51I'm going to leave that to the second-half of the pod here.
- 3:54Let's start with some NFL football.
- 3:56So I want to talk first real quick about betting preseason
- 3:59games and betting Hall of Fame games because you're going to
- 4:02get a very different take from your friends, your your fellow
- 4:06gamblers. And I don't think there's a
- 4:08right or wrong when it comes to betting preseason, but I do
- 4:11think you want to pick a lane. And what do I mean by pick a
- 4:14lane? What I mean is that I would
- 4:15either be totally into it, you know, bet these games, track
- 4:19these numbers and there's a lot of information based bets we
- 4:22want to take advantage of, which basically means, you know, what
- 4:24are the coaches telling us in terms of who's going to play and
- 4:26who isn't? Or I think you want to lay off
- 4:29entirely. I don't think you just want to,
- 4:30you know, put your toe in to the water here and there.
- 4:33You're either all in or all out. Now if you're all out, that's
- 4:36OK. You can still break down the
- 4:37games. You can write down, excuse me,
- 4:39in a notebook what you would have bet.
- 4:41And you can also kind of brush up on getting re acclimated to
- 4:44betting the NFL. And I think there is an
- 4:46advantage to betting pre season because whether you, you know,
- 4:49get down or not have an official bet, you're still training your
- 4:53brain to sweat spread sports and you know, like football.
- 4:56Think about key numbers again. So I think there's definitely
- 4:58some some value there. Now I'm of the the former, not
- 5:04the latter. I love betting pre season.
- 5:06And a reason for that is if you look or you kind of think about
- 5:10what the odds makers are telling you and what the sharps are
- 5:13telling you, it's not a secret anymore.
- 5:15But pros love betting the preseason because big advantage
- 5:18here is that the the coaches are going to come out and tell you
- 5:21exactly what they're doing. So for example, tonight we've
- 5:24already had Harbaugh come out and say Trey Lance is going to
- 5:27start. He's probably going to play the
- 5:28entire first half. He may even play a series in the
- 5:31second quarter. You have the lions coming out
- 5:33and saying, hey, no Jared Goff tonight.
- 5:36No, I'm on Ross St. Brown, no Gibbs, but Hendon
- 5:38Hooker and Kyle Allen are going to be our starting are being are
- 5:42two quarterbacks here to battle out for the the backup job.
- 5:46So no other time of year are you going to get this type of
- 5:48information. The other angle here is if you
- 5:50talk to odds makers, they hate booking the pre season because
- 5:53the numbers are usually pretty short.
- 5:55You know, the spreads going to be like 1234 really not much
- 5:59more than like four or five points.
- 6:01And these numbers can really move based on you know,
- 6:03information coming out based upon who's playing and who
- 6:06isn't. So the fact that pros will come
- 6:08out and tell you they love betting pre season and the odds
- 6:11makers say they hate booking pre season, you got to think to
- 6:14yourself if they love betting booking pre season, that's
- 6:18probably because they make a killing.
- 6:19If they don't like it, it's probably because they you know,
- 6:22they might take a hit because it's harder to to cap these
- 6:25games and the pros have an edge. So with that being said, I like
- 6:28betting the pre season. Now this is a Hall of Fame game,
- 6:31so it's kind of its own animal here, but there are some
- 6:35interesting things to talk about for this game.
- 6:37I do have a play for you, so I'm going to give you first my angle
- 6:40here, that lean but layoff or I'm just not betting this at
- 6:44all, which would be the side because if you look at the side
- 6:47in this game, let's just kind of breakdown this game like we
- 6:50would any other game. We open this game basically
- 6:53Detroit around a 1 1/2 point favorite.
- 6:57They're technically the home team, but there's a neutral site
- 6:59game and basically this line is kind of been back and forth.
- 7:03One point it got down to 1, now it's back up to 1 1/2.
- 7:07You have a couple shops like Circa out in Vegas who are at
- 7:092:00, but basically from open to close or open to current, it
- 7:13really hasn't moved any at all. Now if we look at what the
- 7:16betting market is doing here, DraftKings, 65% of bets are
- 7:21taking the Lions. So you could kind of say to
- 7:24yourself, hey, everyone's playing Lions, but yet the line
- 7:27really hasn't moved much. Yes, there are some 1 and halfs
- 7:29up to two, but really hasn't moved much off the opener.
- 7:33So I don't want to be with the public.
- 7:35I'm a contrarian better by nature.
- 7:37Obviously in last year was not a good year for contrarian
- 7:40betters. It was a huge outlier where you
- 7:42had a ton of favorites and overs hit.
- 7:44It was the best public year I think in like 15 years.
- 7:47But as a data-driven contrarian, better I'm not going to be with
- 7:50the drunk guys at the bar. Who are saying just lay with the
- 7:53lions? It's so short.
- 7:54Play the Lions. Lions may win, Lions may cover,
- 7:57but as a again, contrarian better.
- 8:00I don't want to be with the public and basically a line that
- 8:02hasn't really moved at all. The other angle here is if you
- 8:04look at preseason dogs that are +3 or less, they're covering 61%
- 8:10of the time since I think since 2018.
- 8:14So basically that would tell you to play the Chargers.
- 8:17The other angle here is, I must admit, I do have a lot of
- 8:21respected people, sharp betters who like the Chargers tonight as
- 8:24well. So the fact that the Lions are
- 8:27public, the Chargers are in a good betting system, +3 or less
- 8:31dogs, again, covering nearly 2/3 of the time, and a lot of
- 8:34respected wise guys are playing the Chargers.
- 8:37This is a layoff for me. I really don't see a clear edge
- 8:39one way or the other. And there's also a stat out
- 8:41there on on who is it? Dan Campbell, I think he's three
- 8:44and six ATS in the preseason. Also, crazy things happen
- 8:49second-half when no one really cares who's going to win or not.
- 8:51And you got third, fourth string players out there.
- 8:54So first angle here is I'm not playing the side.
- 8:57I am, however, going to play the total and it may surprise you a
- 9:00bit. I'm going over in this game
- 9:02guys, over 33 1/2. Now here's my logic to play the
- 9:06over. First off, what are we seeing
- 9:08across the market? Will this total open 32 1/2?
- 9:11At one point there were some books I thought I saw like a 32
- 9:14maybe. And then it kind of crept backed
- 9:16up and and really stayed at 32 1/2.
- 9:19But over the last 24 hours, we've seen it get up to 3333
- 9:231/2. And even today you're seeing
- 9:25some books go to 34. So it's pretty clear here, late
- 9:28movement, which is notable to me.
- 9:29Limits are raised, bigger bets come in, is playing this over.
- 9:32So on game day, the total isn't falling, it's rising.
- 9:35Tells me we got some respect and money going over.
- 9:38The other angle here is shop around because currently what I
- 9:42got was over 33 1/2 at -110 standard juice at FanDuel.
- 9:47But a lot of books are over 33 1/2 -, 115 and a lot of books
- 9:51are at 34. And if you look at circa,
- 9:54they're at 34. They're pretty sharp books.
- 9:55So they're kind of higher than the market.
- 9:57Remember in the hot dog contest, yes, I'm going to make a
- 9:59comparison to the hot dog contest, but they had, what was
- 10:02it, 70 1/2 hot dogs. Rest of the market was 71 1/2.
- 10:07Basically, they were more bullish on the under.
- 10:09Well, in this regard, they're kind of more bullish on the over
- 10:12so late movement and Circa bullish bullishness, is that
- 10:16even a word? BS Ness is leaning over.
- 10:20Second angle here is if you look at the splits, 65% of bets on
- 10:23the over. Don't love that that is
- 10:25technically public, but you're getting nearly 75% of the money
- 10:28on the over. So that would tell me it's not
- 10:30just dumb average Joes at the bar going over, but some
- 10:34respective money and the sign is creeping up.
- 10:36Next angle for me. If we look at the weather
- 10:39tonight, yes, football, we got to start thinking about the
- 10:41weather. 65°, no precipitation, very mild winds, 5 to 10 mph.
- 10:48So there's no rain, there's no wind, really nothing to worry
- 10:52about. So we have a perfect night at,
- 10:55what is it, Tom Benson Stadium next?
- 10:59If we look at the last three years when it comes to this Hall
- 11:03of Fame game. Now, it used to be back in the
- 11:05day. I remember when I first started
- 11:07in the betting industry, my first job was sports Insights.
- 11:10Now I got hired way back in 2011, but at one point it was
- 11:13like just always play the under in the Hall of Fame game because
- 11:17typically you see low scoring games.
- 11:20If we look at the under, let me see if I can find this from,
- 11:25let's see, 2006 all the way to just a few years ago. 20/21 the
- 11:32under was 123456789 and four. So the under did very well.
- 11:40However, last three years the over is 3 and O three years ago,
- 11:44Jags Raiders 27 to 1138 points year after that Browns Jets
- 11:502116. I remember that one because I
- 11:52was actually on my honeymoon in in Cancun.
- 11:55I remember watching it on this little little bar and I was like
- 11:58one of the only Americans who cared about that game because I
- 12:00played it. But that was a total of the
- 12:03other angle here is the totals have risen.
- 12:05So like 3 years ago was 30 and a half 33 and a half 3334.
- 12:10So if we look at again, the last three years and last year was
- 12:14Texans, Bears, that was 2117, we've averaged 38 points a game.
- 12:20So we do have that kind of recent trend to the over next.
- 12:24Dan Campbell, if you dig into Dan Campbell in the preseason,
- 12:27he's 8:00 and 4:00 to the over 67%.
- 12:31So again, you've seen these higher scoring games.
- 12:33I mentioned Trey Lance playing the whole first half.
- 12:36I think that's a good thing for offense.
- 12:38Yes, he was a high draft pick, pretty much a bust, but he's got
- 12:41some experience. He's trying to show out.
- 12:43He's going to get a lot of time. It's not like it's a four string
- 12:46rookie playing. So hopefully he's got some
- 12:48offense out of Trey Lance. Then I mentioned the quarterback
- 12:51battle, Hendon Hooker, remember he was a stud at Tennessee.
- 12:53I think he blew out his knee and Kyle Allen, a pretty good
- 12:56veteran. They're both playing and they're
- 12:58battling for the backup job. So it's to their incentive or to
- 13:02their benefit to play well and put up points.
- 13:05So we've built this case where the late money is going over low
- 13:08bets hired, all our bets split to the over.
- 13:11We have bullish 34 at Circa last three years the total has gone
- 13:15over. We have great weather.
- 13:16We have Campbell 67% to the over in the preseason, Trey Lance and
- 13:21a quarterback battle. Then a little cherry on top, I
- 13:24pop open Juice Rail and our friends at Juice Rail go to the
- 13:28sharp mush edge for this total 24% sharp mush edge to the OVA.
- 13:34So that tells me everyone who has downloaded Juice Rail and
- 13:37all the sharper winning batters who have synced up their books
- 13:40are also leaning over. So you got all up here guys, and
- 13:44we got an opportunity here to sweat this over tonight.
- 13:46Now again, you really got to get that 33 1/2.
- 13:50You hate to see it land right on 34.
- 13:52You know, also you get some missed extra points, you know,
- 13:55going for going for two, maybe we're going to see some
- 13:59turnovers, which would be nice and short fields.
- 14:02But you got it all up here. I think there's an opportunity
- 14:04from a data-driven perspective to play this over.
- 14:07So the first bet of the year for me, Hall of Fame game, call me
- 14:10call me crazy or not for betting it, but I think we built a case
- 14:13from a data-driven perspective to root for points and play this
- 14:16over. So I'm officially on Chargers
- 14:19Lions Hall of Fame game tonight, 8:00 over 33 1/2 -, 110 at
- 14:25FanDuel. Now let's turn the page and get
- 14:28right back to betting Major League Baseball.
- 14:30I know we're all excited about the football game tonight.
- 14:33We still got some baseball here on in on the slate.
- 14:37So 2 plays overall, both big steam moves.
- 14:40Let's see if we can get at least one.
- 14:41If we can get both, that'd be even better.
- 14:44So first one on the board for me.
- 14:45Let's look at a 7:10 PM Eastern Time.
- 14:47First pitch we got the Braves visiting the Cincinnati Red
- 14:50Legs. So setting the stage for this
- 14:52one. The Braves come in 45 and 62.
- 14:55Just dropped two or three against the Royals.
- 14:57They lost the series finale yesterday. 1 nothing in extras
- 15:00as a + 100 Rd. dog. You know all the red legs 57 and
- 15:0452 just lost two or three against the Dodgers.
- 15:06Avoided the sweep though they won the series finale yesterday.
- 15:095:00 to 2:00 as a + 140 home dog.
- 15:12So pitching match up for tonight.
- 15:14We have the Braves going with the recently acquired Carlos
- 15:17Carrasco. Remember him?
- 15:18He's 38 years old. He had a lot of good years with
- 15:20the Guardians, two and two 5.91 ERA.
- 15:23He was just picked up recently because the Braves are are
- 15:27decimated pitching staff that made a trade for Eric Fetti as
- 15:30well. But the Reds meanwhile, are
- 15:32going to go with the lefty Andrew Abbott, who's been really
- 15:34good this year. 8 and 1 two point O 9 ERA.
- 15:37So what are you seeing across the market?
- 15:40Well, we open this game red legs around a -, 160 home favorite,
- 15:44the Braves around a + 135 Rd. dog and we've seen nothing but
- 15:47steam in favor of Cincinnati. Let's go Pete Rose.
- 15:52The Reds have gone from -160 now all the way up to -185 some
- 15:57shops even now -190 now if you sign up to get the official best
- 16:01bets from Juice Reel, $4.99 a week.
- 16:04I put in Reds -175 earlier today.
- 16:07So if you bet it earlier, you're feeling pretty good with some
- 16:10CLV. Yes, the price is getting more
- 16:12expensive, but also tells you there's continued action on the
- 16:15red legs. I really like the Reds bet
- 16:17splits. If you look at DraftKings, 73%
- 16:20of money line bets, 83% of money line dollars.
- 16:24And then over at Circa in Vegas, 70% of bets, nearly 80% of
- 16:27dollars. So we got a pro and Joe low
- 16:30bets, higher dollar split at both DraftKings and Circa on
- 16:33Cincinnati. Then we look at some system
- 16:36matches lit up here on Cincinnati.
- 16:37You got 3 pretty good ones. Non division home favorites off
- 16:40a win, getting line movement in their favor.
- 16:43Very simple. 183 and 9965 percent, 5% ROI this year.
- 16:48Thursday home favorites -175 or more. 18 and six this year. 75
- 16:54percent, 8% ROI. Home favorites with big steam,
- 16:57$0.20 or more in the opening game of a new series. 62 and
- 17:022571 percent, 9% ROI. So 3 pretty good system matches
- 17:06there on the Reds. Dig a little deeper into Abbott.
- 17:10The Reds are 13 and five and Abbott's 18 starts.
- 17:13He's given up 1 earned run or less and 14 of his eighteen
- 17:16starts overall at home. Four and one 1.93 ERA.
- 17:21Meanwhile, the Braves only hitting 230 against lefties this
- 17:24year. That ranks 21st in baseball.
- 17:26You know, Carrasco, he actually hasn't pitched since May 4th and
- 17:30he has allowed three earned runs or more in five of his eight
- 17:33starts. If you look at the Reds just
- 17:35recently, last 10 games, they're only five and five, but they're
- 17:39hitting 245. Team ERA of 3.62, Braves last
- 17:4310-2 and eight to 224. Batting average, 652 ERA.
- 17:47We also have the Reds 32 and 24 at home, you know, decent home
- 17:51record. Braves are only 19 and 36 on the
- 17:54road. That's the fourth worst Rd.
- 17:55record in baseball. And also add today's the trade
- 17:59deadline. Braves have a Cunha who's
- 18:02injured. There's rumors Ozuna could get
- 18:03dealt. The Reds are picking up guys,
- 18:06keep Ryan Hayes and they picked up Zach Littell from Tampa Bay
- 18:10and I think they picked up a reliever maybe.
- 18:12So you have one team that's getting big steam and is buying
- 18:14other team that's kind of get getting steamed against and is
- 18:18in cell mode. Add it all up here, guys.
- 18:21There's an opportunity here to root for the Pete Rose Red Legs.
- 18:23I got a -175 again. Looks like your best number
- 18:26right now is around -185 at BET MGM.
- 18:31Last bed of the night. Staying up late.
- 18:33Let's go out to the AL West and the West Coast, get some sushi
- 18:36and root for the Mariners. Seattle Mariners hosting the
- 18:39Texas Rangers now. Rangers come in 57 and 52, just
- 18:44lost two or three against the Halos, but did avoid the sweep
- 18:47they won yesterday. Six to three as a -, 125 Rd.
- 18:50favorite. You know all the M's.
- 18:52Same record, 57 and 52. Just dropped two or three
- 18:55against the A's. Excuse me, Lost 5 to 4 yesterday
- 18:59as a -150 Rd. favorite. So pitching match up for
- 19:03tonight. We have the Rangers going with
- 19:04the ready Kumar Rocker. He's four and four with a 5.73
- 19:09ERA. You know all the M's going with
- 19:10fellow ready George Kirby. Five and five 4.5 OERA.
- 19:14What have you seen across the market here?
- 19:17Well, if you like Cincy, I think you like Seattle.
- 19:19Another big home favorite that's getting steamed.
- 19:22Seattle open this game around a -. 150 home favorite.
- 19:25Texas around a + 130 Rd. Dog and sharps have pounded the
- 19:30Mariners. They've gone from -150 up to
- 19:33-175 some looks, even -180 I jumped on Seattle -170 at
- 19:39Caesar's little bit earlier today.
- 19:41If you look at the splits at DraftKings, 66% of bets, but a
- 19:45little more than 70% of the money is on Seattle.
- 19:48So a little bit of a wise guy. Low bets, higher dollar split,
- 19:51system match. We love Thursday.
- 19:53Home favorites -175 or more. 18 and 675% this year. 8% ROI and
- 19:59the same system match with Cincy as well.
- 20:02Home favorites with Big Steam $0.20 or more in their favor in
- 20:06the opening game of a new series. 62 and 2571%.
- 20:10With a 9% ROI, we do have some correlative betting value in
- 20:14favor of the Ms. because they're around a -, 175 home favorite
- 20:18and the total is very low 7 1/2. So fair amount of expected run
- 20:22scored. More likely to come from quote
- 20:24UN quote that better team. I'm going to bank on the
- 20:26Mariners bats hopefully getting to Rocker.
- 20:29They're hitting 245 on the year, 152 homers, 492 run scored.
- 20:34Rangers hitting two 33116 homers, 452 run scored.
- 20:40Now Kirby in the month of July, he's made four starts, 3.86 ERA.
- 20:45Seattle is 7 and two in his last nine starts.
- 20:48Rockers made four starts in July, 4.95 ERA and he is only
- 20:52one and four with a 9.91 ERA on the road.
- 20:55He's he's, I think it was what was he second overall pick?
- 20:59I know he's in the first round, but you know, decent at home,
- 21:03struggle on the road. You see that a lot with young
- 21:05pitchers. Mariners, meanwhile, 28 and 24
- 21:07at home, Rangers only 23 and 32 on the road.
- 21:10Seattle is 7 and two against the Rangers this year.
- 21:13So hope that continues here tonight.
- 21:15And Texas, I don't know if they've made many moves like
- 21:19they just dealt away a reliever, but Seattle just made a big
- 21:22trade for Eugenio Suarez. So they added Josh Naylor.
- 21:25They added Suarez, who's hit a ton of home runs this year.
- 21:28I don't know if Suarez is in the lineup tonight yet, hasn't been
- 21:31released, but maybe those are good vibes that they're, they're
- 21:33going for it. And that trickles in throughout
- 21:36the locker room. We got it all up here, guys.
- 21:38Big steam on the Reds, big steam on Seattle.
- 21:42Laying it here with both of them.
- 21:43I got Seattle again -170 at Caesar's.
- 21:46Shop around a lot of books now -175 -, 180 So that about does
- 21:51it for episode 327 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
- 21:56podcast. And can I just say what a
- 21:58pleasure it is to break down an NFL game?
- 22:00Boy, did I miss betting the NFL. Before you know it, we got
- 22:03college football returning as well.
- 22:05But anyway, guys, this is the part of the pod where we wrap
- 22:07things up. And I start first by saying
- 22:10thank you. Thank you for taking the time
- 22:11out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
- 22:14the virtual bar and sweat some sharp data-driven breakdowns
- 22:17with me. If you do enjoy the pod, you
- 22:19want to help me grow the pod, let me know you appreciate the
- 22:21insights. Would you please consider giving
- 22:23it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
- 22:26If you want to leave a nice comment under the review section
- 22:29or click the follow button, recommend the pod to a friend.
- 22:32That would also be fantastic. Next, if you enjoy the style of
- 22:36betting breakdown data-driven sharp can train betting you
- 22:39notice we. Didn't say you're late with
- 22:40Detroit cuz. Cuz the Lions are the balls, no?
- 22:43We're breaking down games based on data, not bias and
- 22:46favoritism. But this style of betting has
- 22:48appealed to you. You've kind of had a light go
- 22:50off in your head that hey, you know, there's a market we can
- 22:52track here. Will the market get every game
- 22:54right? No, because betting is really
- 22:56hard and it's unpredictable. That's why they call it
- 22:58gambling. You're taking a gamble on an
- 23:00unknown outcome. But this style of betting does
- 23:02provide you a blueprint that overtime over the long haul, it
- 23:06is productive. So if you want to learn more
- 23:09about data-driven betting, if you want to learn and get ready
- 23:12to bet the NFL season, well, guess what, There are two books.
- 23:15Go to Amazon.com and type in these two books, the Everything
- 23:18Guide to Sports Betting and the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
- 23:22My two books here, one's been out for a few years now at this
- 23:25point, the Everything guide, it's got everything I've learned
- 23:27in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how
- 23:30to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
- 23:33place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best line,
- 23:35how to set up a bankroll management plan.
- 23:37Then the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook, which comes out August
- 23:4112th, which is crazy. It's what is it 12 days away.
- 23:48Can't believe it. But if you'd like to pre-order a
- 23:50copy of the sharp betting playbook or grab a copy of the
- 23:53everything guide. It will mean a lot to me.
- 23:55And you will also get a free drink from me when I see at the
- 23:58book. And I must say next week I'm
- 24:01spending four days at Mohegan Sun because my brother-in-law is
- 24:05a it's he's a comic comic book writer and it's terrific on and
- 24:09it's at Mohegan Sun. So maybe I'll see you at Mohegan
- 24:11Sun. We're staying there with him for
- 24:13four days. Got a hotel room.
- 24:15I'll be sweating games there. And they're actually they're
- 24:16running a cool promo where if you bet a $25 future or more,
- 24:21you get a free, a free bucket of, of Bud Lights.
- 24:24So I'm looking, I'm very much looking forward to that.
- 24:27But anyway, grab the NFL sharp betting playbook, the everything
- 24:30guide to sports betting. Bring him to the book.
- 24:31I'll sign him for you. I'll buy you a beer.
- 24:34I'll give you one of my Bud Lights from my my futures bucket
- 24:37next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
- 24:39Juice real yet? Well, if you haven't, now is the
- 24:41time because today when the Hall of Fame game comes here, guys,
- 24:44it's telling you it's about to get busy.
- 24:46Football is pretty much back. So you need these two apps
- 24:49because they're great and they're going to help you to add
- 24:52to your data-driven toolkit first with rhythm, data-driven
- 24:58AI recommended plays for game bets and player props and Juice
- 25:01Reel of course, where you can sign up to get the all systems
- 25:04go. Best bet picks for $4.99 a week
- 25:07to support the pod. You get these plays earlier,
- 25:09hopefully beat some closing lines.
- 25:11You're also going to get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the
- 25:13sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for
- 25:16the best line futures all available when you download
- 25:19juice reel. So download rhythm download
- 25:21juice reel. You'll be off and running making
- 25:24sharp bets and make sure you give them a five star review in
- 25:26the App Store as well. Next to last odds logic.
- 25:30You need a live odds page. I was giving you the line
- 25:33movement with, you know, the chargers, Detroit, obviously the
- 25:36baseball games. I get it from odds logic.
- 25:38Odds Logic gives me all the games, it gives me the opening
- 25:41line, the current numbers I can identify Steam.
- 25:44I noticed how that total was creeping up.
- 25:46You're also going to get a full line history breakdown live in
- 25:51game wagering. You're also going to get great
- 25:53notifications if a guy gets scratched or an injury.
- 25:56Really so many great features of the Odds Logic live odds page.
- 25:59So I would love for you guys to sign up for Odds Logic and just
- 26:03give it a shot. 7 day free trial.
- 26:05If you like it, you get 50% off your first month.
- 26:07You just got to make sure you use this this link here.
- 26:10Odds logic.com/josh 123 again, odds logic.com/josh 123.
- 26:18So that about does it everybody. Episode 327 now in the books,
- 26:22Football's back. It's a rainy day for me in
- 26:24Boston, outskirts of Boston, but I will take that over the 100°
- 26:27days. My lawn boy didn't need water.
- 26:31So again, you see what I'm excited about.
- 26:33Rain for my lawn, going to Chipotle, sweating the games
- 26:36alone with my dog. I love my wife, but I'm OK.
- 26:39She's going to let me sweat the game tonight by myself.
- 26:42But that that, that's life when you're late 30s.
- 26:45And you know what? I love it.
- 26:46I'm excited about it. But anyway, guys, two final
- 26:49thoughts as we depart one, whether I see you at the Borgata
- 26:52in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
- 26:54Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun at the Encore in Boston,
- 26:59Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield at the Nash in
- 27:02Nashville, New Hampshire, or of course, out in the desert with
- 27:05the true grinders. Get down where Billy Walter
- 27:07sends his number runners with lowest juice possible is found
- 27:10at the South Point. So in sharp Contrane plays,
- 27:12jumping in the stadium swimming pool, when you catch a big
- 27:15ticket at Circo, you're going to walk up to me.
- 27:17Orioles, Brewers, total trash. RIP them up, recycle those
- 27:21tickets, but show me a socks ticket.
- 27:23Nice 13 to 1 winner there. I'm still annoyed we couldn't
- 27:26get the Orioles though. What are you going to do?
- 27:28But anyway, guys, first one's on me, next one's on you.
- 27:30Will post about the book Sweat Sharp Contrane plays all night
- 27:33long. So wish you the best of luck
- 27:35everyone. As always, 1 and 2, two and one,
- 27:38three and OO and three. Hot, cold grinding somewhere in
- 27:41the middle. We just got to stick to it,
- 27:44stick to the model, stick to the blueprint.
- 27:45Make data-driven bets with our head and not our heart.
- 27:48And hey, if we can do that, I think we're going to be
- 27:50successful sports bettors. So find those system matches
- 27:53against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
- 27:56avoid parlays, get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
- 27:59to come out on top in the end. So enjoy the return of the NFL.
- 28:03Let's root for some points. Hope we can get an over here
- 28:06tonight and go red legs, go Mariners and then I'll see you
- 28:11guys back tomorrow for Big Friday edition, episode 328 of
- 28:14the All Systems go sports betting podcast powered by
- 28:18rhythm. Good luck everybody, and have a
- 28:19great, great night tonight, guys.
- 28:22Good luck.