Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Grains: Exports and Bear Flags
Transcript
- 0:03SPEAKER_01: You're locked in to the Grain Market Talk Podcast.
- 0:06SPEAKER_01: Fast updates, market movers, and the grain news you need right now.
- 0:12SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
- 0:20SPEAKER_00: Today is January 23rd.
- 0:22SPEAKER_00: I've got Lucas Peters back with us here today.
- 0:24SPEAKER_00: How's it going, Lucas?
- 0:26SPEAKER_00: It's going fantastic on this chilly Friday, Mike.
- 0:29SPEAKER_00: Well, don't worry, folks.
- 0:30SPEAKER_00: If you don't want to see Lucas, you can still listen to us on Spotify and Apple.
- 0:34SPEAKER_00: But if you want to see his pretty face for the first time out and about on the podcast, you can do now do that on YouTube.
- 0:41SPEAKER_00: So check us out there.
- 0:42SPEAKER_00: We'll have some charts and stuff today as well.
- 0:44SPEAKER_00: But I wanted to start today talking about four main topics.
- 0:47SPEAKER_00: I want to talk about exports this morning on the corn market.
- 0:50SPEAKER_00: I want to talk about some bear flag action here going on technically.
- 0:54SPEAKER_00: I want to talk about uh what four dollars looks like on corn and if sub four is a possibility.
- 1:00SPEAKER_00: And then I want to wrap up just talking about PLC, ARC, crop insurance, a few of those things to kind of support at least my argument about sub-4 corn, Lucas.
- 1:09SPEAKER_02: Well, that sounds great.
- 1:11SPEAKER_02: I uh we had some exciting news on the exports, so we should probably start there, huh?
- 1:15SPEAKER_00: Well, it was actually an exciting day on the grain markets in general, which it's been a while in the positive manner.
- 1:21SPEAKER_00: The last time it was exciting, it was a it was bloody.
- 1:25SPEAKER_00: It was pretty red.
- 1:26SPEAKER_00: So today a pretty big upward move in the corn market.
- 1:30SPEAKER_00: Uh that was kind of kicked off by exports.
- 1:32SPEAKER_00: This morning, we had nearly 160 million bushels sold on the corn export chart.
- 1:37SPEAKER_00: That was the most in five years, third largest going back to 1999.
- 1:42SPEAKER_00: Uh, and what we saw those prior two times were both pretty much 2021 China.
- 1:49SPEAKER_00: So the question now a lot of folks have been bringing up, which you can see in the chart here uh on YouTube, uh in the in the video here, is that it was a it was a big export report, and the last time we've seen this in the history, uh it was kind of when China was involved.
- 2:04SPEAKER_00: And it the question is China prices on corn are running near five month highs, for example.
- 2:09SPEAKER_00: The US is at five month lows, or at least we're uh I wonder if China is stepping into this market on the unknown category because the majority of this does look like it's coming from unknown corn export sales.
- 2:22SPEAKER_00: But this was a big day in the corn market, uh, Lucas.
- 2:25SPEAKER_00: What do you think about that?
- 2:27SPEAKER_02: Well, it's like you said, any good news uh is very welcomed in the corn market right now.
- 2:32SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 2:32SPEAKER_02: So a little bit of speculation, like you said, on where this is all coming from.
- 2:36SPEAKER_02: Um but it's it's good, right?
- 2:39SPEAKER_02: I I think that's the bottom line here is the one shining star of the US corn uh market that so far, well, for the last couple years actually, has been our exports, and we need them to stay strong or even get stronger with the amount of bushels we have available in the United States.
- 2:56SPEAKER_02: We got to get rid of them somehow, at least this sector, and at least today, it really popped up to show that maybe we can take exports to a to a really high level this year.
- 3:06SPEAKER_00: And uh one of the other categories you could probably argue would be if you can't export it to try to get rid of it, you'd have to grind it into ethanol or feed.
- 3:15SPEAKER_00: We don't have any more animal numbers, so that part's gonna be a little tough.
- 3:19SPEAKER_00: However, Trump is talking next week in Iowa, which could be interesting because it's gonna be focused around energy, it looks like.
- 3:26SPEAKER_00: And being that he's going to do it in Iowa, we don't know quite where at yet, but it is in Iowa.
- 3:32SPEAKER_00: It seems a little suspicious, but I have to caution you.
- 3:35SPEAKER_00: July 3rd, the last time Trump spoke in Iowa, and we're supposed to get fantastic news about Chinese trade deal.
- 3:41SPEAKER_00: That really crapped the bed for the grain market going after that, didn't it?
- 3:44SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and and also when you think about, you know, the there was no E15 year-long uh uh allowance in the spending bill uh that just last night, right?
- 3:55SPEAKER_02: They voted it, it wasn't in the bill.
- 3:57SPEAKER_02: Um, and all the rumors coming out, of course, rumors on Twitter is where I'm sourcing this information from.
- 4:03SPEAKER_02: So take that for what it's worth.
- 4:05SPEAKER_02: But all the rumors were if the White House would have pushed for the available availability of year-long E-15, it would have been in there and it wouldn't have been stopped.
- 4:15SPEAKER_02: And so I agree, of it's it's interesting timing.
- 4:19SPEAKER_02: He's come to Iowa next week to speak to a bunch of farmers that are wondering what has the government done with our reporting on corn.
- 4:26SPEAKER_02: What a great way that he could have said, hey, look what I did last week.
- 4:30SPEAKER_02: I pushed for the availability for E-15 year long, and it didn't happen.
- 4:35SPEAKER_02: Um, so it's either Trump maybe positioning himself to be the hero and get something new in there and passed, um, or he's gonna have a reason of well, what's coming next, and or as we have definitely learned over the last uh couple of, well, the last year I should say, uh, who knows what he's gonna say, and we'll have to find out until he actually does.
- 4:56SPEAKER_00: And it's a pretty boring time in the corn market from a news perspective.
- 4:59SPEAKER_00: You know the most about the last crop than you're gonna know any other time of the year.
- 5:04SPEAKER_00: We don't know anything about the new crop till basically the outlook report, which is still guessing, and then prospective planning's end of March.
- 5:12SPEAKER_00: So it's gonna be kind of boring here, probably for a little bit on the corn market.
- 5:15SPEAKER_02: Yep, so we are gonna be looking at headlines, trading headlines, rumors, all that fun stuff.
- 5:21SPEAKER_02: But it is fun to have a little bump today based off the good export sale.
- 5:25SPEAKER_00: Speaking of fun, one of the other things here with this bounce is we've been creating a little bit of a bear flag.
- 5:30SPEAKER_00: We can look at that there on the screen as well.
- 5:33SPEAKER_00: Uh over the last few days after Monday's big sell-off, this corn market's been slowly consolidating higher into a bear flag.
- 5:41SPEAKER_00: And today you're getting very close to probably violating that.
- 5:45SPEAKER_00: If you were closing somewhere above this 438 to 440 on the May, that would probably do it.
- 5:51SPEAKER_00: Today we closed right at 438.
- 5:53SPEAKER_00: Doesn't seem very clear yet, but a little bump above this, you could be potentially going up the next targeted point, would be that 100-day moving average around 448.
- 6:03SPEAKER_00: So that's something that the funds are trying to keep an eye on.
- 6:06SPEAKER_00: If we fail here and 430 fails to really hold us on the bottom side, uh, we're looking technically trying to take off another 18 cents or so, which would be brand new lows for the contract.
- 6:18SPEAKER_00: You go all the way back to August there, we had lows just above 420, so that would be in question.
- 6:25SPEAKER_00: So we're at a technical point here where I think this corn market's uh at a very critical point too, just for funds trying to decide what way we want to push this corn market.
- 6:35SPEAKER_00: And I have a feeling that Trump's news next week, along with any follow-through from this and uh and buying, not just on the report, but if we could get China in there, that would be a really huge help going forward.
- 6:47SPEAKER_00: So continue to watch that from a technical perspective.
- 6:50SPEAKER_00: Um when I look at corn here going into 2026, the really big question here I think is one, we're setting up marketing plans, how do we protect ourselves?
- 7:02SPEAKER_00: And uh one of the bigger items I would believe going forward is uh how do farm program payments start to kick in and protect me?
- 7:10SPEAKER_00: How do crop insurance look going into the February averaging period here soon?
- 7:15SPEAKER_00: Where did where does that protect me from a price perspective?
- 7:18SPEAKER_00: And then what are a few options and and where where do we really set ourselves up at here going forward?
- 7:25SPEAKER_00: So I I just wanted to talk with you about this because in my opinion, it looks like we're gonna get a lot of support in December corn next year below four bucks between Arc or PLC, whatever one we get or have to decide on, which looks like could be a little later, whether it's crop insurance, which we if we're kicking in at a 450 average period, you buy ECO, you're kicking in in the low four.
- 7:49SPEAKER_00: So you know it starts at 425.
- 7:51SPEAKER_00: By the time you get to 390, you're probably maxing out somewhere if yields don't go against you.
- 7:57SPEAKER_00: And the other aspect of it is corn historically hasn't wanted to trade much below four bucks.
- 8:03SPEAKER_00: Now, on the on the last chart that we're looking at there, where it shows kind of a continuation, this is the the nearby December going back all the way to 2020.
- 8:14SPEAKER_00: And what we noticed is that there's only three weeks we traded below$4 corn futures on nearby December corn futures back there in in that August-September area of 24, and then a little bit here closer to August at the at before harvest here.
- 8:31SPEAKER_00: So it's a very interesting spot because sub four just doesn't seem that easy to come these days, Lucas, in this uh December corn market.
- 8:39SPEAKER_00: What do you think about that?
- 8:40SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I guess I would tend to agree with you based on recent history, and of course, uh, you know, all as you go back and inflation every year should increase your kind of floor price a little bit, right?
- 8:51SPEAKER_02: So so that maybe is trending the down your line of thinking that going below four dollars would be would signal something very serious is going wrong, and but the ability for it to trade down there is probably not very likely, right?
- 9:05SPEAKER_02: Um but you are a hundred percent correct on four dollars you have if we would trade there.
- 9:12SPEAKER_02: And and if you're gonna play the the fundamental side of why we could trade there, we'd all know the scenarios, right?
- 9:19SPEAKER_02: If we if we plant another 98, 99, 100 million acres of corn, uh if the um if the weather is as good as it was last year and we have 185, 187 bushel yields, uh if exports stop, if ethanol grind uh slows down, all of the things, right?
- 9:39SPEAKER_02: Like you could say we're gonna be swimming in corn, uh, why would it need to be above four dollars?
- 9:44SPEAKER_02: Those are the reasons.
- 9:45SPEAKER_02: What to your earlier point though, a lot of your risk management and your safety net this year is it kicks in uh a little above four dollars, but at four dollars you're gonna you're gonna trigger a lot of payments so that even though maybe the board is below four dollars or at four dollars, you're going to be the farmer's gonna be okay.
- 10:07SPEAKER_00: You're getting a help from multiple areas.
- 10:09SPEAKER_02: That's where you're gonna get multiple areas levels of of uh support kicking in and paying you.
- 10:16SPEAKER_02: Now, uh I'd uh just a few highlights to kind of back those points up uh for you, Mike.
- 10:22SPEAKER_02: For 2026 crop insurance, which as you said, we're gonna start hit sit setting that spring price here the uh the first February.
- 10:30SPEAKER_02: So we're got a little over a week away, right?
- 10:32SPEAKER_02: Uh not all uncommon to see corn rally a little bit going into February.
- 10:37SPEAKER_02: So maybe that's what we're seeing, along with some of the good news, which hit whatever the news, as we're along as we're rallying, that's awesome.
- 10:43SPEAKER_02: Uh what's changed for crop insurance this year is it's it's lower cost.
- 10:48SPEAKER_02: The one big beautiful bill increases subsidy on all levels of corn soybean crop insurance from your enterprise optional basic unit uh with a three to five percent additional subsidy, SEO, ECO coverage, getting extra subsidy all the way up to 80%.
- 11:05SPEAKER_02: That is really good for the U.S.
- 11:08SPEAKER_02: farmer safety net because now I can get as much protection or potentially more protection than I had last year at a lower cost.
- 11:16SPEAKER_02: That's kind of exactly what the farmer wants, right?
- 11:18SPEAKER_02: As prices go down, I want the same for a little bit less.
- 11:21SPEAKER_02: Crop insurance is gonna be able to deliver that for this year.
- 11:25SPEAKER_02: The ARC and PLC safety net has also changed, and I will preface that all these numbers and a few of the scenarios we're gonna look at next.
- 11:34SPEAKER_02: I am calculating ARC and PLC payments from the 2025 crop because that's what you're going to get in October of 2026.
- 11:46SPEAKER_02: We have a pretty good guess on that already, don't we?
- 11:48SPEAKER_02: You you have a pretty good guess because uh we don't have a final county, final county yield number yet, right?
- 11:56SPEAKER_02: Like we have to wait a little time for that.
- 11:58SPEAKER_02: But we kind of know what our yields were, the trend.
- 12:01SPEAKER_02: We don't have a price until what August uh on that.
- 12:05SPEAKER_02: But WASD puts out a price, every single WASD report, the price, the national market average.
- 12:10SPEAKER_00: That one just floored me when they raised the price from four bucks to four ten in this last report with the damage they did fundamentally.
- 12:17SPEAKER_02: So who knows if the numbers are right?
- 12:19SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I'm just gonna run through some scenarios, but I as we look through some of these scenarios, it's it's a little confusing because the the crop insurance price is going to use 2026 numbers, the ARC PLC is gonna be 2025 numbers.
- 12:34SPEAKER_02: But it kind of works out because your revenue at the end of the year, that's what you're going to see.
- 12:39SPEAKER_02: I do want to hit on ARC PLC decision for 26.
- 12:42SPEAKER_02: You mentioned earlier that a sign up might not be for a while.
- 12:45SPEAKER_02: That's all what we're hearing, right?
- 12:47SPEAKER_02: Like um in 2025, you're automatically going to get the higher of the two ARC count on your PLC, no matter what you signed up for.
- 12:54SPEAKER_02: Uh, usually the sign-up period is March or April.
- 12:58SPEAKER_02: Uh, everything's been hinting that they're going to punt that back uh to either you're gonna do it at the same time when you're certifying acres, or potentially even later uh into the fall after we have a price set uh for for 2025.
- 13:14SPEAKER_02: So I uh I don't want to talk much about 2026 Arc PLC because things might change.
- 13:21SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 13:21SPEAKER_02: Uh anyway, so let's go through uh a couple scenarios here.
- 13:25SPEAKER_02: Um and I just ran some some numbers based on an average Rock County, Minnesota farmer.
- 13:31SPEAKER_02: Okay, and so uh the yields are gonna be a little different in your county.
- 13:36SPEAKER_02: If you're in northwest Iowa, the county yields APH is gonna be a little higher.
- 13:39SPEAKER_02: If you're in uh Pipestone County or in South Dakota, the numbers are gonna be a little lower, but the trends are going to be the same.
- 13:45SPEAKER_02: And one of the common things we've been talking about is if you max out your safety net, your protection, that you're gonna be better off if price goes down or if price goes higher.
- 13:58SPEAKER_02: But the worst case scenario is price stays the same.
- 14:00SPEAKER_02: And so we just ran some scenarios.
- 14:02SPEAKER_02: So I'm saying this Rock County farmer's buying 85% revenue protection, he's buying ECO, and he's obviously going to get his ARC PLC payment from 2025, whatever's the highest.
- 14:13SPEAKER_02: So as we look at corn here uh on a few different scenarios, if we want to bounce to the next slide there, uh what we did is you know, just the the numbers that we have here are showing um what would the claim be or payment be for the various scenarios at 425.
- 14:33SPEAKER_02: Uh the first one there would be 425 corn in October and a 215 yield.
- 14:39SPEAKER_02: So kind of average yields with a slightly lower price.
- 14:43SPEAKER_02: You can see our total revenues coming in around 960 bucks.
- 14:48SPEAKER_02: Okay, that's about as bad a scenario as there is.
- 14:53SPEAKER_02: Like price stays flat, yields are good, not fantastic.
- 14:57SPEAKER_02: That is our worst case scenario on the revenue because the and your payments on that are coming from the ECOPSC.
- 15:05SPEAKER_02: So price is coming down a little bit because our spring price, right?
- 15:08SPEAKER_02: Uh D26 corn is like 455, something, right?
- 15:11SPEAKER_02: Um, so our ECO is kicking in at 23 bucks.
- 15:15SPEAKER_02: Our PLC is kicking in because our price is lower, but our arc isn't because our yield is still higher, right?
- 15:21SPEAKER_02: So that's why we would get that PLC number, we'd get that ECO claim, but price and yield hasn't fallen far enough for my base policy to trigger.
- 15:29SPEAKER_02: The best case scenario on this, the kind of our green, of course, is a scenario everybody wants is we go back to five dollar corn, right?
- 15:36SPEAKER_02: So we we're got five dollar futures in October, we got average to a little higher yields, we're getting uh the most revenue per acre.
- 15:45SPEAKER_02: Not a problem.
- 15:46SPEAKER_02: Nothing kicking in from a safety net standpoint because our price is high, yields are good, that's just strictly revenue.
- 15:53SPEAKER_02: Uh the kind of the ones in the middle there, I guess, is where uh look the same almost.
- 15:58SPEAKER_02: They kind of look the same.
- 15:59SPEAKER_02: So if if price goes down to your level, Mike, you were saying about four bucks, you know that's gonna look really bad when you look at when when you open the markets every morning or you look at your local cash price, you're gonna not feel real great.
- 16:14SPEAKER_02: But at four dollars an average yield, we're getting back to almost a thousand dollars an acre because ECO is paying us pretty well, our PLC is paying us really well, and we still got a decent crop to amount of pushals to market, getting us to that around that thousand dollar level.
- 16:30SPEAKER_02: Same as if price stays about flat and yield goes down.
- 16:33SPEAKER_02: So I guess my point in showing all this is uh, you know, we want I want you to look at all these levels of crop insurance, use the subsidy, buy up, because the only way these numbers work is if we max out our crop insurance.
- 16:48SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 16:49SPEAKER_02: 85%, uh ECO, uh, and and then trying to raise the best crop you can, right?
- 16:56SPEAKER_02: Because it's easy to look at that and be like, well, gee whiz, and maybe the soybean numbers even show it uh even more next.
- 17:02SPEAKER_02: If the yield goes down, my safety net's gonna catch me.
- 17:06SPEAKER_02: Why am I trying to get extra bushels?
- 17:08SPEAKER_02: You're doing that in case the price goes higher, yeah, right?
- 17:10SPEAKER_02: Because that is the best case scenario is higher yields with a decent price.
- 17:14SPEAKER_02: So I guess we had been talking about all these different scenarios of if price goes high, we're good, if price goes low, we're okay, if prices stay flat, that's where our our most stressful environment's gonna be.
- 17:25SPEAKER_02: And the numbers kind of bear it out.
- 17:26SPEAKER_00: Especially when you start looking at the impact that has where it's like if everybody's losing$50,$100 an acre on corn, if price kind of stays here a little bit lower, nothing's really changing too much.
- 17:38SPEAKER_00: People are still gonna bid up rents probably when they pop up your machinery, probably nothing changes or chemical or fertilizer.
- 17:44SPEAKER_00: But it feels like when you have max pain, you're you're losing more than that, prices get below four bucks.
- 17:50SPEAKER_00: At least inflation on some of these items seems to come down a little bit and get more realistic.
- 17:54SPEAKER_00: Something changes in agriculture, you get some opportunities.
- 17:57SPEAKER_00: That's but when it stays here, it's just like all right, should I take that next shot or not?
- 18:01SPEAKER_00: Uh is five dollar corn gonna come or not?
- 18:03SPEAKER_00: And then you wait around a little bit more to try to get that next bushel sold at a higher price, and it never happens.
- 18:09SPEAKER_00: So it you're in a harder position, I think, if you just stay at 425.
- 18:13SPEAKER_02: Correct.
- 18:14SPEAKER_02: And and the numbers bear that out.
- 18:15SPEAKER_02: Yes.
- 18:15SPEAKER_02: And soybeans are the same way, we don't have to go through the actual numbers, but uh you're if price goes higher and yields good, we're getting good scenarios.
- 18:23SPEAKER_02: And soybeans is probably a little more uh driven by if yields go down and price goes down.
- 18:29SPEAKER_02: All the safety net there is really good.
- 18:32SPEAKER_02: Um but the trend is the same.
- 18:33SPEAKER_02: Like if I wouldn't be nervous if price if if I'm worried about price going down, I don't have to worry about that as much from a revenue standpoint because my safety net will pick me up.
- 18:45SPEAKER_02: Eventually I have to market these bushels, and that's where we got to talk to you to have a marketing plan in place in case this happens.
- 18:51SPEAKER_02: Um but the the safety nets there for for guys to to confidently make decisions going into this next year's crop, knowing that if something goes wrong, at least there is a floor there.
- 19:04SPEAKER_02: And on the corn side, like you mentioned earlier, it's around four bucks.
- 19:07SPEAKER_00: So the way I'm trying to approach this with like some of my guys, at least, or the ones I work with, is try to market your grain like you're working in a window between five dollars on corn and four dollars on corn.
- 19:20SPEAKER_00: Don't be worried about the risk under four, and don't be too hopeful that we're gonna get above five.
- 19:24SPEAKER_00: And on the soybean side, it's the same thing.
- 19:26SPEAKER_00: Like, don't be too hopeful we're gonna get above twelve, and don't really plan for it to go much below nine fifty.
- 19:33SPEAKER_00: And and that you work in that window and you make strategies that benefit you in that window.
- 19:39SPEAKER_00: So that's yeah, we've got a few things that to really maximize that, which is a very unique strategy, and then we've got some things just very block and tackle work to do when we work in the upper end of that range as well.
- 19:50SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and I think that's now that we've identified that range, now we can put that marketing plan together of knowing when we trade above it, we better have opportunities, you know, in place, orders working to fill so because as we've learned over the last few years, a lot of times those opportunities don't stick around long in the environments like we're in.
- 20:09SPEAKER_02: Uh one other topic I want to talk about is we've started this riskology series, Mike.
- 20:15SPEAKER_02: As you know, you led our first one here this past Tuesday, which you can check out on YouTube.
- 20:20SPEAKER_02: Um, and our next one will be February 17th, and it'll be on it on crop insurance, the basics of crop insurance, kind of right in the crop insurance time of year, March 15th sales closing date coming up.
- 20:32SPEAKER_02: And so I'll be leading that one on our riskology series, and and uh you guys can jump on the webinar or watch the recording afterward to check that out.
- 20:41SPEAKER_02: And also uh coming up, we I don't know if we have a slide on it, but uh we have our boot camp up at SDSU coming up that same week, February 18th and 19th.
- 20:51SPEAKER_02: If you are uh looking for more of an in-person event to learn all the basics of risk management uh on multiple different crops and species of livestock and probably some insurance throwing in as well.
- 21:04SPEAKER_02: We would love to have you sign up and join us at SDSU the the 18th and 19th of February at our boot camp.
- 21:10SPEAKER_00: Think we're going to the NDSU game after that that night as well.
- 21:13SPEAKER_02: So I would call it the SDSU game against NDSU.
- 21:18SPEAKER_02: But yeah, I think we are doing that, Mike.
- 21:19SPEAKER_00: That'll be fun.
- 21:20SPEAKER_00: All right.
- 21:21SPEAKER_00: Thank you for your time, Lucas.
- 21:22SPEAKER_00: Of course.
- 21:23SPEAKER_00: We'll send you off.
- 21:24SPEAKER_00: Thanks for listening.
- 21:25SPEAKER_00: This podcast is available on Spotify and Apple, and now it is now launched on YouTube.
- 21:30SPEAKER_00: This week going forward, every podcast will have a video format available on YouTube as well to discuss charts and other things that we can show you while doing our podcast.
- 21:40SPEAKER_00: Thank you for listening.