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NFL Week 5 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by Bett three
0:12
Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
0:15
Speaker 1: is our week five Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chad Milman,
0:19
Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are coming
0:24
Speaker 1: off a five and oh weekend our contest, folks. We
0:26
Speaker 1: recorded our Sunday episode before Sunday Night Football, and as
0:31
Speaker 1: we said on the show, a lot of the lines
0:33
Speaker 1: we liked have already moved, which is why you need
0:36
Speaker 1: to listen to the Sunday show if you want to
0:38
Speaker 1: get the best of every number. Today we will get
0:42
Speaker 1: to our Simon Says and our exec Decision, both were
0:45
Speaker 1: winners last week Thursday. We will do sharp calls, big Balls,
0:48
Speaker 1: bet of the Week, and Foxhole. This episode, we'll look
0:52
Speaker 1: at the entire board and we begin narrowing down the
0:54
Speaker 1: five picks we'll enter in the Favorites podcast Dollar Pro
1:00
Speaker 1: Football Pick Them Contest, still open for sign ups, still
1:04
Speaker 1: free to play, still awarding weekly and season long cash
1:07
Speaker 1: prizes at Favorites dot Action network dot com. Now let's
1:14
Speaker 1: bring in my co host, my bff, my companion, Mike
1:17
Speaker 1: and Padre, my partner in Going five and zero this
1:21
Speaker 1: past week, Professional Better Simon Hunter Ello.
1:26
Speaker 2: So I'm in, how are we doing? Shad, Dude?
1:31
Speaker 1: You know what, I felt great on Sunday, felt great
1:34
Speaker 1: about the day. And you know what I did Monday morning,
1:39
Speaker 1: woke up, got to work on week five. I was
1:42
Speaker 1: looking for numbers. I'm putting notes into our script. I'm
1:46
Speaker 1: doing my research, I'm doing my reading. I'm just getting ready.
1:50
Speaker 1: And I thought about something we did differently this week
1:55
Speaker 1: for the contest that we used to do every week
1:58
Speaker 1: and the other contests we've done in the past, which
2:01
Speaker 1: was we locked our picks on Thursday. And you know
2:06
Speaker 1: when we when we were doing the contest in years past,
2:08
Speaker 1: the other contests, they would lock their lines I think
2:11
Speaker 1: on Tuesday or Wednesday, and we had till Sundays to submit.
2:15
Speaker 1: So you and I by Wednesday or Thursday, we sort
2:18
Speaker 1: of knew the five games you would put them in,
2:20
Speaker 1: and then by Sunday we're just looking at the lines
2:22
Speaker 1: and saying, Okay, do we like this better than this?
2:24
Speaker 1: This better than this? I think that helped. Do you agree?
2:29
Speaker 2: Yeah? And I also felt like last week was easy,
2:33
Speaker 2: like even if we didn't stick with our five like
2:38
Speaker 2: I think we were talking aboututt the Ravens in because
2:39
Speaker 2: the you know, Watson was out and it's like, you know,
2:43
Speaker 2: that's the hardest part of you Some weeks there's like,
2:45
Speaker 2: you know, we like seven or eight games and we're
2:47
Speaker 2: trying to fit it down to five. I feel like
2:49
Speaker 2: last week we really had our five and then even
2:51
Speaker 2: the ones we're thinking about putting in. I mean, we
2:53
Speaker 2: would have lost in the Raiders, but I think we
2:55
Speaker 2: talked Houston, but in the contest there two and a
2:57
Speaker 2: half and then we talked Ravens. I think there are
3:00
Speaker 2: maybe plus one. So yeah, last week was great, but yeah,
3:03
Speaker 2: I'm happy to do it again, like lock it in Thursday,
3:05
Speaker 2: and if we have to move and change numbers, we will.
3:07
Speaker 2: But if we wake up Sunday and there is a game,
3:09
Speaker 2: you're like all in on, I'll never poop poo. It's
3:11
Speaker 2: like if I'm on the same side, it's going to
3:13
Speaker 2: make its way in there. So having the locked in
3:15
Speaker 2: numbers were nice, but those are always nice weeks where
3:18
Speaker 2: we got the best of the number and we had
3:20
Speaker 2: no worries when it came to switching which ones in
3:22
Speaker 2: and which one's out.
3:23
Speaker 1: The favorite podcast is not a Pooh Pooh podcast. We
3:28
Speaker 1: listen we listen to everybody's side because we want to
3:31
Speaker 1: be We want to be all inclusive. As a reminder,
3:34
Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five.
3:37
Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. They believe that
3:40
Speaker 1: every sport should be epic, every touchdown, every game, every point,
3:45
Speaker 1: every play, from the moments that are legendary to the
3:48
Speaker 1: ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself when
3:51
Speaker 1: you sign up today with Code Action and you'll get
3:53
Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty five dollars in bonus bets when
3:55
Speaker 1: you bet just one dollar. Whatever the sport, whatever the moment,
4:00
Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five. Must be
4:03
Speaker 1: twenty one or older. Must be present in Colorado, Kentucky, Iowa,
4:06
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. If you or someone you
4:10
Speaker 1: know as a gambling problem and wants helped, call one
4:12
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia,
4:16
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and
4:19
Speaker 1: conditions apply. Here's our update. So in week four in
4:23
Speaker 1: the contest, no joke this is this might have been
4:26
Speaker 1: a clue for us Simon. We had seven hundred seven
4:30
Speaker 1: hundred entries finished five and oh dozens of people tied
4:34
Speaker 1: for first place because they nailed the tiebreaker of total
4:38
Speaker 1: New York Giants penalty yards, which was forty five. So
4:41
Speaker 1: congrats to our winners. Please expect harder and harder tie
4:45
Speaker 1: breakers from now on. This week's Producer Cup Award goes
4:49
Speaker 1: to Rafa Yousel for finishing dead fucking last and the
4:52
Speaker 1: Week four contest going h to five and missing the
4:54
Speaker 1: tiebreaker by sixty five yards. Rafa email of producer Mattan
4:58
Speaker 1: Vitschell at podcast at actionnetwork dot com to claim your
5:01
Speaker 1: non cash prize. Thanks for playing. Week five of the
5:04
Speaker 1: contest is live the Monday night football tiebreaker length of
5:08
Speaker 1: the first Raiders drive. Good luck everybody. Let's get to
5:12
Speaker 1: week five before we do that quick update on our futures.
5:15
Speaker 1: Simon and I like Justin Herbert to lead the league
5:17
Speaker 1: in passing at twenty five to one. He's fifth. I'm
5:20
Speaker 1: a little anxious about that finger issue. We like Tyreek
5:23
Speaker 1: Hill to leave the league in receiving yards at nine
5:25
Speaker 1: to one. He is third behind Justin Jefferson and Pooka
5:30
Speaker 1: Nikuwa Jalen Carter despite Devin Witherspoon, doing everything he can
5:36
Speaker 1: to stake a claim to the Defensive Rookie of the
5:38
Speaker 1: Year award, is still the odds on favorite to win
5:41
Speaker 1: the award. We liked him at seven to one. He
5:44
Speaker 1: is now like plus one hundred at that three six five,
5:47
Speaker 1: And don't forget we like Josh Allen at ten to
5:49
Speaker 1: one to win MVP. Before the Bills Dolphins game this
5:53
Speaker 1: past week, he is now the odds on favorite. Kudos
5:57
Speaker 1: to signon all right, Our theme this week is fading
5:59
Speaker 1: the public, because that is what we like to do,
6:03
Speaker 1: and this year the betting public, meaning when there are
6:08
Speaker 1: fifty one percent or more of the tickets on a side.
6:13
Speaker 1: This season, they are thirty three to twenty four to
6:14
Speaker 1: three against the spread. The public has lost money each
6:17
Speaker 1: to the past five years. It also might mean time
6:21
Speaker 1: to start faith in the public even more aggressively. Simon,
6:24
Speaker 1: we got the Chicago Bears visiting the Washington Commanders. They're
6:28
Speaker 1: six and a half point underdogs. I got a lot
6:30
Speaker 1: to say about this game as a Bears fan. I
6:33
Speaker 1: think this one anecdote will epitomize everything I feel about
6:38
Speaker 1: this team. Right now. My older son, who is not
6:43
Speaker 1: a sports kid, and has never watched a full NFL game,
6:46
Speaker 1: maybe even hasn't watched a half. Sent me a TikTok
6:50
Speaker 1: that showed the Bears are the only team in all
6:54
Speaker 1: the professional sports that has not won a games since
6:56
Speaker 1: Elon Musk bought Twitter. Last doc to two.
7:03
Speaker 2: Now, you guys are the greatest tanking team ever. Chat.
7:05
Speaker 2: I'll keep saying it's the damn truth. You're really good
7:07
Speaker 2: at losing.
7:09
Speaker 1: Well, look now we've got a chance to get the
7:10
Speaker 1: number one and the number two pick. The Bears have
7:13
Speaker 1: lost fourteen consecutive games, a lot of twenty five plus
7:15
Speaker 1: points in all of them. That's the longest streak in
7:18
Speaker 1: NFL history, But they were one of the most unlucky
7:22
Speaker 1: teams on Sunday, outgained Denver by one hundred and sixty yards,
7:25
Speaker 1: had nearly thirty first towns, had four drives ended Broncos
7:30
Speaker 1: territory with no points, including the sack and strip and
7:36
Speaker 1: the fumble return for a touchdown to tie that game.
7:40
Speaker 1: Every part of my body is saying take the Bears
7:44
Speaker 1: here because Washington is overvalued and this feels like the
7:48
Speaker 1: right spot to fade the home favorite of a big number.
7:52
Speaker 1: What are we supposed to do here.
7:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know some pros of coming on the Bears,
7:56
Speaker 2: but yeah, I'm kind of in the same spot as you,
7:58
Speaker 2: as I got no real read on it, where your
8:01
Speaker 2: defense is so horrible and you've had so many injuries,
8:05
Speaker 2: so you already had bad players on defense, and those
8:07
Speaker 2: bad players have gotten hurt, so now you have those
8:08
Speaker 2: bad players backups playing. It's really an absolute train wreck
8:13
Speaker 2: for this Bears defense. So I want to take it
8:16
Speaker 2: because I feel like fields could be in this game,
8:18
Speaker 2: and you can. The way you attack this Washington team
8:21
Speaker 2: is deep balls and thrown into that secondary, and that's
8:24
Speaker 2: what the Bears can do pretty well. Actually, So I
8:27
Speaker 2: want to tack the Bears. I was hoping at State seven.
8:29
Speaker 2: The pro money came in at six and a half.
8:31
Speaker 2: Now I don't know what tem I do this one.
8:34
Speaker 2: I mean I always talking about I just like bend
8:35
Speaker 2: Prime Time under. So I'll take the under. Maybe I'll
8:38
Speaker 2: tease Washington down. It's a long teaser, and then we
8:42
Speaker 2: get them down too point five. You know it's hard though,
8:46
Speaker 2: It's like I want, Like you just said, the Bears
8:50
Speaker 2: are really unlucky. Last week, I saw a lot that
8:52
Speaker 2: I liked, but I don't know what to do. It's
8:55
Speaker 2: against a defense that you have seventy the week before, like, yeah, yeah,
8:58
Speaker 2: it's hard to do this Bears team. So luckily we
9:02
Speaker 2: don't need to put this on the contest.
9:04
Speaker 1: We're not going to put this in the contest. I think,
9:07
Speaker 1: I honestly feel like the play here is patience, and
9:09
Speaker 1: we just talked about, you know, fading the public, right,
9:13
Speaker 1: so I think we can anticipate that come Thursday night,
9:19
Speaker 1: We're going to see a lot more money come in
9:22
Speaker 1: on the Commanders and it will overweigh the early money
9:26
Speaker 1: that's come in on the Bears, and this game will
9:29
Speaker 1: get closer to seven, is what I'm hoping, and then
9:32
Speaker 1: I'll get a chance to see if I can get
9:34
Speaker 1: the Bears at plus seven. But to stay away for now.
9:37
Speaker 1: We mentioned our sponsor bet three six fives early payout
9:41
Speaker 1: offer for NFL games. We've mentioned it a few times.
9:44
Speaker 1: That's when you cash your bet automatically if the team
9:47
Speaker 1: you back get to seventeen point lead. Last week that
9:53
Speaker 1: three sixty five had its fourth early payout offer cash
9:57
Speaker 1: in four weeks when the Bears blew a three touchdown
10:00
Speaker 1: lead against Denver.
10:01
Speaker 2: And the Chad parlay cash because of it. I played
10:03
Speaker 2: it ten was eleven to one.
10:05
Speaker 1: I think, so nice job. The Jags and the Bills
10:11
Speaker 1: are playing the second London game. The Bills are five
10:13
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. Obviously no home advantage here.
10:17
Speaker 1: I mean the rule of thumb here has been to
10:18
Speaker 1: play the favorites. Yeah, in London and the rule of thumbs.
10:23
Speaker 1: If you're playing Josh Josh Allen, you play the favorite
10:26
Speaker 1: because he wins consistently over the number, Like I forgot
10:30
Speaker 1: what the number is now Evan Abrams, but you know
10:34
Speaker 1: his he wins by more than a touchdown a significant
10:39
Speaker 1: amount of time.
10:42
Speaker 2: I guess the Bills, Yeah, it's really hard because I
10:44
Speaker 2: want to take the Jaguars. It's like they've been in
10:47
Speaker 2: They're still in England. They have been all there all week.
10:49
Speaker 2: The Bills just had a huge emotional win. You know,
10:52
Speaker 2: in their mind that was for the division, right, it
10:54
Speaker 2: was like they're not worried about the Jets, are not
10:56
Speaker 2: wory about the Patriots. It was Miami. Everyone's till with Miami.
10:58
Speaker 2: Like Josh Allen, he was all in on that game,
11:01
Speaker 2: had the best game of the year for himself, like
11:04
Speaker 2: just an incredible football, there's always a letdown after that.
11:07
Speaker 2: It's like, this should be a smash spot for me
11:09
Speaker 2: on the Jaguars, but Josh Allen's so good and Trevor
11:12
Speaker 2: Lawrence has looks so bad it makes it hard for
11:14
Speaker 2: me to want to go all in on this Jaguars team. So, yeah,
11:18
Speaker 2: don't have a read on it yet. Like I want
11:20
Speaker 2: to take the Jaguars. I was hoping it was gonna
11:22
Speaker 2: be six six and a half. It's been five five
11:24
Speaker 2: and a half and a lot of books. Just a
11:26
Speaker 2: weird number, weird line to me. The Bills are just
11:28
Speaker 2: way better right now than this Jaguars team. Like, if
11:32
Speaker 2: Rider was not a corpse, I think the land would
11:35
Speaker 2: have been in that game, it might have won that
11:36
Speaker 2: game against the Jaguars. So something's not right with this
11:39
Speaker 2: Jacksonville team. But this is such a letdown spot for
11:43
Speaker 2: the Bills team. I'm happy I don't have to make
11:44
Speaker 2: a pick on this one yet, but definitely lean towards
11:47
Speaker 2: the Jaguars. Yeah.
11:49
Speaker 1: Reminder that the Thursday night football games in the early
11:52
Speaker 1: European kickoffs are not included in the Favorites contest, so
11:56
Speaker 1: you can't pick those games. We can't take it anyway,
11:59
Speaker 1: so we don't have to worry about it. But it
12:01
Speaker 1: is like, look, we like playing as many games as
12:03
Speaker 1: we can. As you once said to me, there's only
12:05
Speaker 1: so many football games, so you want to bet as
12:07
Speaker 1: many of them as you can, right.
12:09
Speaker 2: I'm trying to do it on our action app. I'm
12:11
Speaker 2: trying to bet every game, not every total, but just
12:13
Speaker 2: about and it's been fucking tough. Like the fans wanted
12:16
Speaker 2: me to do it, and I've been trying to do it. Man,
12:18
Speaker 2: it is hard because I tell people at the time
12:20
Speaker 2: a normal week, I'll make three pretty large bets and
12:23
Speaker 2: then I'll bet every game, but every every game is
12:25
Speaker 2: a little different. Right this year, I've been trying to
12:27
Speaker 2: give out every single game, every side, almost every total
12:30
Speaker 2: I can, and it is fucking hard. That's why I
12:33
Speaker 2: always say, like the key to this is you narrow
12:35
Speaker 2: down from the sixteen games to the three or four
12:37
Speaker 2: you really like. And like last week with five and zero,
12:40
Speaker 2: that's the dream scenario where it's like you have five
12:42
Speaker 2: but you can bet them all go crazy, but you
12:44
Speaker 2: really want to lock into a couple of games because
12:46
Speaker 2: we say all the time, it is so hard to
12:48
Speaker 2: get all these games right.
12:50
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, by the way, fifty nine wins in his career.
12:52
Speaker 1: Forty five of those fifty nine wins have been by
12:54
Speaker 1: seven points or more. Okay, here we go, Simon, get
12:58
Speaker 1: into the heart of the matter. We still owe people
13:00
Speaker 1: with Simon says, we still owe people an exec decision.
13:05
Speaker 1: Last night, the New York Football Giants put on a
13:09
Speaker 1: display that was so pathetic. It looked like the kind
13:14
Speaker 1: of team you expected them to be without Brian Dayball's
13:17
Speaker 1: coaching magic, and you had to wonder why they did
13:21
Speaker 1: what they did with Daniel Jones. Truly pathetic, pathetic performance.
13:27
Speaker 1: They have not scored a first half touchdown last night.
13:30
Speaker 1: Before the game, the Giants were a nine point underdog
13:33
Speaker 1: to Miami. This weekend in Miami, they are now eleven
13:37
Speaker 1: point underdogs.
13:41
Speaker 2: No, normally I'd be all over this Giants number, but
13:44
Speaker 2: they have no O line and they have no way
13:47
Speaker 2: of scoring. How are they going to keep up with
13:49
Speaker 2: one of the best offenses we've ever seen? Even if
13:51
Speaker 2: Miami is an off game. Do they really score less
13:54
Speaker 2: than thirty points against this terrible Giants defense? And can
13:57
Speaker 2: we really trust Daniel Jones to put up more than
13:59
Speaker 2: thirty points with this offense that I love the show
14:02
Speaker 2: on Daniel Jones. Yeah, he made some horrible reads and
14:04
Speaker 2: stuff like that. He was getting destroyed from the first
14:07
Speaker 2: snap on. I want to be on the Giants here
14:10
Speaker 2: like this feels like the spot to take them. Maybe
14:12
Speaker 2: I will buy Thursday show. But as you say it
14:14
Speaker 2: right now, I don't have a penny on this Giants team.
14:16
Speaker 2: I don't know what to do with this. Just last
14:18
Speaker 2: year we saw the best it could ever possibly be
14:22
Speaker 2: what Daniel Jones. It feels like in this offense they
14:24
Speaker 2: got duped. They paid him the money and that sucks,
14:27
Speaker 2: but that is what it is. So this Giants team,
14:30
Speaker 2: we're all over there under coming into the season just
14:33
Speaker 2: we all knew regression was coming and it is hitting
14:36
Speaker 2: them hard.
14:37
Speaker 1: It's so interesting, right because what did the Giants GM?
14:44
Speaker 1: What did Brian Daball see in Daniel Jones to convince
14:49
Speaker 1: themselves that one year of him playing okay was worthy
14:54
Speaker 1: of the contract that they gave him. Nobody lives like that.
15:00
Speaker 1: When there's a great employee who has one good year,
15:03
Speaker 1: you don't all of a sudden give them the biggest
15:06
Speaker 1: contract that you could possibly give and tie your entire
15:10
Speaker 1: future success to that person, like that's what Brian Daball did,
15:15
Speaker 1: That's what this GM did. They tied their hands to
15:18
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones.
15:19
Speaker 2: They're a little stuck though, like he won that playoff
15:21
Speaker 2: game and they were like, what are we gonna do?
15:24
Speaker 2: There's no other option. We're going to really go get
15:26
Speaker 2: Jimmy g Yeah, I'm with you. They're kind of just
15:28
Speaker 2: stuck where it's like the guy won a playoff game,
15:30
Speaker 2: are really not gonna resign them? So I don't know
15:34
Speaker 2: the whole language of the contract for them, but I
15:36
Speaker 2: do think they can get out of it after next season.
15:38
Speaker 1: So there's a couple things that I do think are
15:40
Speaker 1: worth paying attention to here. The Giants are terrible. Zero
15:44
Speaker 1: takeaways fifteen with zero takeaways through four.
15:49
Speaker 2: Games are crazy, all right?
15:51
Speaker 1: Number one. Number two, The Giants defense has eighteen pressures
15:55
Speaker 1: on opposing qbs this season. That's the lowest in the NFL.
15:59
Speaker 1: Tuoa has been pre shirt on just twelve dropbacks.
16:03
Speaker 2: The eleven of them come against the Bills.
16:04
Speaker 1: And eleven came against the Bills.
16:06
Speaker 2: Right now, this is about even just when you're in
16:09
Speaker 2: those stats, now, it's like, shit, we might have to
16:11
Speaker 2: go fucking chalk and take Miami like, this might this
16:13
Speaker 2: number might be too low, this might need to be
16:15
Speaker 2: two touchdowns.
16:16
Speaker 1: So here's the thing. We've seen this before. Teams who
16:19
Speaker 1: scored three points or less the previous week, oh sixty
16:22
Speaker 1: one percent against the spread.
16:24
Speaker 2: They're they're that thirty nine.
16:27
Speaker 1: That could be it could be right, right, exactly what
16:29
Speaker 1: that means doesn't mean a hundred percent. Yeah, just means,
16:32
Speaker 1: you know, two thirds of the time.
16:33
Speaker 2: But I need a couple of broken eggs in there
16:35
Speaker 2: for the omelets. So they're they're, they're they're the ones.
16:37
Speaker 1: Man, we did see it. Listen, who wasn't last weekend?
16:40
Speaker 1: It was Tennessee, which we loved, Yeah, and it was
16:44
Speaker 1: somebody else and uh Washington and Washington, which we like,
16:48
Speaker 1: thank you, So you know like both teams. Also, I
16:52
Speaker 1: do wonder. Look, a team that just was blown out
16:56
Speaker 1: coming back for a big win is not unsurprising and
16:59
Speaker 1: not a bad side to take either. Yea, you know,
17:01
Speaker 1: we're putting it on the board. It's on the board.
17:04
Speaker 1: We're going to continue the conversation a game that we
17:07
Speaker 1: know we have to talk about. The Saints one and
17:10
Speaker 1: a half point dogs at bet three sixty five at
17:14
Speaker 1: the Patriots. There are not many reasons like the Saints team.
17:17
Speaker 1: Their offense is truly, truly horrible. I was reading Bill
17:20
Speaker 1: Barnwell's column yesterday on ESPN dot com. Couple of stats
17:25
Speaker 1: to point out twenty eighth in success rate, twenty seventh
17:29
Speaker 1: in expected yards per carry, twenty eighth in league points
17:33
Speaker 1: per drive. Their offense. Pete Carmichael, their coordinator, not putting
17:41
Speaker 1: Derek Carr in a position to succeed, especially with play action,
17:45
Speaker 1: which is what he was so good at number one
17:48
Speaker 1: quarterback off play action two years ago. They've had him
17:51
Speaker 1: just do ten play action passes per Barnwell through four games.
17:54
Speaker 1: So the average team has twenty nine terrible in the
17:57
Speaker 1: red zone. But after judn out for an extended period
18:02
Speaker 1: of time, Christian Gonzales out, the only reason we like
18:05
Speaker 1: the Patriots is because of their defense. Now that kind
18:08
Speaker 1: of defense is missing their two best players.
18:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, like, no, you nailed it. What we talked about
18:14
Speaker 2: before you even came on here is people are probably
18:15
Speaker 2: hesitant just because we don't know what's going on Derek Carr.
18:18
Speaker 2: He might be injured, and that is fair. Before just
18:22
Speaker 2: talking about the better team, it has to be the
18:25
Speaker 2: Saints now with all the injuries to this new England team. Yes,
18:28
Speaker 2: the Saints had a horrible game last week. I thought
18:31
Speaker 2: they're honestly thought they were gonna fire the OC before
18:33
Speaker 2: this game and make a change because you can still
18:35
Speaker 2: kind of get away with it this early in the season.
18:36
Speaker 2: We can get rid of a guy, have someone else
18:38
Speaker 2: come in try to redo everything. And I guess they
18:41
Speaker 2: didn't want to make that move yet. But there and
18:44
Speaker 2: no world. Sho Kamar be catching thirteen balls for thirty
18:47
Speaker 2: three yards, and that's what happened last week with the
18:49
Speaker 2: Saints offense. Like your number one guy is Olave. Olave
18:53
Speaker 2: had one catch for four yards. I don't know what
18:55
Speaker 2: they're gonna do, what they're gonna change, but at guarantee
18:58
Speaker 2: it starts right there. In no world should Kamar begaining
19:02
Speaker 2: thirteen catches and Olave gets one catch. This kid is incredible,
19:05
Speaker 2: So I know they're going to make those corrections. On
19:08
Speaker 2: the flip side. Now, we have no one, like you
19:11
Speaker 2: just said, we have no one we fear now on
19:13
Speaker 2: this Patriots team where they lost a guy. I talked
19:16
Speaker 2: about it. I feel like Belichick had his shut down corner
19:19
Speaker 2: and that was a big deal. And with Gonzalez gone,
19:23
Speaker 2: I do think that's really going to affect their secondary.
19:25
Speaker 2: Now you have a team coming in not only they
19:28
Speaker 2: have a lot, but they have Michael Thomas and Rashid Like,
19:30
Speaker 2: they have really good weapons on the outside. So Derek
19:34
Speaker 2: Carr stuff makes me a little nervous where it's like
19:36
Speaker 2: I would make this, as Simon says, like, but don't
19:38
Speaker 2: be shocked if this is one of our five on Sunday,
19:40
Speaker 2: if we like, well, we're hearing about Derek Carr and
19:42
Speaker 2: this number is still good, just because I do think
19:45
Speaker 2: it's crazy to say about I would make the Patriots
19:48
Speaker 2: an underdog here at home. So I do think we're
19:49
Speaker 2: getting good value here on the Saints team.
19:51
Speaker 1: Very close to making it the exact decision for the
19:55
Speaker 1: reasons I'm hesitating because I'm still seeing money come in
19:58
Speaker 1: on the Patriots. It doesn't make sense to me.
20:01
Speaker 2: But it's a Belichick effect the same reason idiots like
20:03
Speaker 2: me and we're taking them last week against Dallas where
20:05
Speaker 2: it's like you're thinking that they will be able to
20:09
Speaker 2: get it right on defense.
20:11
Speaker 1: You know what, Yeah, I'm calling it now. I'm calling
20:14
Speaker 1: it now. Exact decision really without knowing what's up with Derek? Yep,
20:19
Speaker 1: I'm okay, you know me, regardless of what's going on.
20:21
Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I
20:23
Speaker 2: commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Don't do this.
20:27
Speaker 2: We did this last week in Vegas. Don't do this
20:29
Speaker 2: to me.
20:30
Speaker 1: I'm doing it. Baltimore, Baltimore at Pittsburgh. The Steelers are
20:35
Speaker 1: three and a half. This line moved down from four
20:37
Speaker 1: and a half. Look classic Tomlin spot, I know what a.
20:42
Speaker 2: Raw rom Mike Tomlin Spot. We win the game with
20:46
Speaker 2: just prove of bodies right here today, game today.
20:52
Speaker 1: Not just that, but in this series, right like in
20:55
Speaker 1: this series. Here's some great stats in this series. The
21:00
Speaker 1: underdog in this series twenty two to five and three
21:02
Speaker 1: against the spread. When Tomlin faces Harbor, the underdog is
21:06
Speaker 1: covered eleven straight in this rivalry and one one against
21:10
Speaker 1: the spread since twenty fifteen.
21:12
Speaker 2: The greatest of all time. Look at your work.
21:14
Speaker 1: When this line is three or more since two thousand
21:17
Speaker 1: and five, the underdog is twenty one, three and three.
21:19
Speaker 2: Made an opportunity to get a quality dude at a discount,
21:24
Speaker 2: like what we're talking about. Fucking eh, yeah, I hate
21:27
Speaker 2: it just because We both hate it because we think
21:29
Speaker 2: Mitch is gonna play.
21:31
Speaker 1: Now. I hate it because we didn't bet at at
21:32
Speaker 1: four and a half.
21:33
Speaker 2: Well, she'll get a good number of four. I mean,
21:36
Speaker 2: I guess because of those stats. I mean, those are
21:38
Speaker 2: amazing trends that base off of. Like I already wanted
21:40
Speaker 2: to take Pittsburgh. Heere because it is our home divisional dog.
21:43
Speaker 2: We are getting a team in Pittsburgh that I assume
21:46
Speaker 2: the public was gonna leave them for dead. Like that's
21:47
Speaker 2: why I thought this number would keep going up. And
21:49
Speaker 2: everyone's coming on this Ravens team. But the Ravens are
21:52
Speaker 2: banged up, like their team has a ton of injuries.
21:54
Speaker 2: And you didn't really see that last week because the
21:56
Speaker 2: Browns just rolled over. But he did see it against
21:59
Speaker 2: that Colts team. It just seemed like the Ravens should
22:02
Speaker 2: be much more superior than that Colts team. They kept
22:04
Speaker 2: it close because the Colts do have talent. But you
22:07
Speaker 2: know this Pittsburgh team, Chad, let's go, Mack. You're you're
22:11
Speaker 2: making the right concas of all the best we talked about.
22:13
Speaker 2: This is making me sick think about taking Pittsburgh. But
22:15
Speaker 2: I think you're right. Like although stature right off. You
22:18
Speaker 2: want to back the dog here, especially the home dog
22:21
Speaker 2: in these divisional matchups, and yeah, four and a half
22:24
Speaker 2: in the contest. If it's that in Sunday, I don't
22:27
Speaker 2: know how we don't put that as on over five,
22:29
Speaker 2: Like this is just a nice Tomblin spot. But man,
22:32
Speaker 2: does it make me feel sick? Somebody got to be
22:35
Speaker 2: all in for everybody to be all in.
22:37
Speaker 1: Well, look, I think the big reason why we're talking
22:39
Speaker 1: about it is because the Steelers defense is not what
22:43
Speaker 1: it was in any point in this in this rivalry,
22:45
Speaker 1: right and their secondary isn't very good right now. Their
22:50
Speaker 1: run defense isn't very good.
22:52
Speaker 2: I feel like the coaching is just bad both.
22:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're just not They're not the same team. So
22:57
Speaker 1: it's giving me a little bit of pause.
22:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair.
23:00
Speaker 1: We're hesitating right now. We are hesitating another big game,
23:05
Speaker 1: Carolina at Detroit. Detroit is minus nine. Nick Giffen will
23:09
Speaker 1: tell you this is an unofficial luck rankings bet because
23:16
Speaker 1: there's a huge difference between Carolina and Detroit in terms
23:19
Speaker 1: of luck, and in this scenario, luck teams meeting this
23:25
Speaker 1: threshold that I'm discussing sixty three zero point five percent
23:29
Speaker 1: against the spread since twenty eighteen, seventy one percent for
23:35
Speaker 1: road teams, so huge luck differential. But Jared Goff like,
23:43
Speaker 1: I feel like we got it back to Panthers.
23:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, a good spot for the Panthers. Where you know
23:49
Speaker 2: Detroit just coming off a huge win. They party for
23:53
Speaker 2: four days, right because it was a Thursday game. They
23:55
Speaker 2: win a Lambeau. That's gotta be a fun weekend for
23:58
Speaker 2: the boys, right, just getting after it. And then you
24:00
Speaker 2: come back in on practice this week. Everyone's still blown.
24:03
Speaker 2: Smoke up your ass all week Panthers. They just feel
24:07
Speaker 2: the team teams are gonna start overlooking because they are
24:10
Speaker 2: so bad even on film, they are really bad. Bryce
24:13
Speaker 2: Young is really bad on film right now. I told you, like,
24:15
Speaker 2: I would have been all over the Panthers last week
24:18
Speaker 2: if it was Andy Dalton and I was completely like, Okay,
24:21
Speaker 2: I'll go Vikings. It's Bryce Young and I want to
24:24
Speaker 2: have the same mentality here where it's like, I don't
24:26
Speaker 2: know how this kid's gonna get down the field to
24:28
Speaker 2: score points, Like that's my biggest fear of this kid
24:31
Speaker 2: right now. He doesn't have any command of the offense.
24:33
Speaker 2: Where you have confidence in Cija, you have confidence and
24:36
Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson to take the ball down the field, and yeah,
24:40
Speaker 2: this is a really tough one Ka Chak because it's
24:42
Speaker 2: such a big number and it's a really nice spot
24:44
Speaker 2: to back Carolina. But I think it's one of those
24:46
Speaker 2: people you can wait and hope this gets up to
24:48
Speaker 2: ten because people are going to be sitting there just
24:50
Speaker 2: like me and Chad, we know this numbers too high,
24:52
Speaker 2: Like everyone knows this numbers too high. But the question
24:56
Speaker 2: is is this Detroit Ta just that good now, like
25:01
Speaker 2: where they're just gonna be blowing out steamroll in this
25:03
Speaker 2: teams because what they did to Green Bay was really impressive.
25:06
Speaker 2: Like he came out I believe you threw a pick
25:08
Speaker 2: on their first drive, gave up three points, he went
25:11
Speaker 2: out there, drove the field to score a touchdown and
25:13
Speaker 2: there was no looking back like golf Golf got that
25:16
Speaker 2: energy right now and he's at home inside this is
25:20
Speaker 2: usually where we back him. So this is a hard one.
25:23
Speaker 2: I'm definitely fighting myself with it where it's like I
25:26
Speaker 2: know this is a big number. I know I should
25:28
Speaker 2: take the Panthers, but I make this number ten right now.
25:31
Speaker 2: My value is typically on Detroit. But it's just like
25:34
Speaker 2: so Chalky, I just can't get there.
25:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually put in our notes. Is it possible
25:40
Speaker 1: the Lions are the right side in this spot?
25:43
Speaker 2: According to my model, they are, But like the human elements,
25:46
Speaker 2: I just it's hard for me to get there, just
25:48
Speaker 2: because of just having this whole week after that Green
25:51
Speaker 2: Bay win. But again, they might be that team. I
25:53
Speaker 2: told you I wanted to move them above the Dallas
25:56
Speaker 2: if they had won that game against Green Bay. I'm
26:00
Speaker 2: literally right there just because of the injury to Digs.
26:02
Speaker 2: With Dallas now like the literally power ratings right there.
26:05
Speaker 2: This is another game. If they win this and Dallas loses,
26:08
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers, I won't be shocked next week
26:10
Speaker 2: on money for a year. And it's like, yeah, I
26:12
Speaker 2: got I got the lines now number three's let me
26:15
Speaker 2: tell you something. I love this team now you can
26:19
Speaker 2: feel it. Man, you're gonna be ready to go man,
26:21
Speaker 2: piss and vinegar. I love this team. They're that team
26:24
Speaker 2: right now. So definitely definitely an interesting game for them.
26:28
Speaker 2: Oh wow, you see the staff from Evan. They haven't
26:30
Speaker 2: been fair by a touchdown or more since September tenth,
26:32
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, and that was against the Jets. So Yeah,
26:36
Speaker 2: been been about five years for this Lion's team since
26:38
Speaker 2: they've been favored by this many points. Hello, try you.
26:48
Speaker 1: Houston and Atlanta. This is a game that we talked
26:50
Speaker 1: about in the Sunday Night Show. When the line opened
26:52
Speaker 1: it was three and a half and you said, I'm
26:55
Speaker 1: waiting for it to get below three. You didn't have
26:57
Speaker 1: to wait long. Is it one Monday morning? Now Atlanta
27:01
Speaker 1: is favored by two. I texted you yesterday and said,
27:05
Speaker 1: have you bet Atlanta yet? It minus one? And you said, no,
27:09
Speaker 1: what are you waiting on?
27:10
Speaker 2: I was opening to get to a dog. I was
27:12
Speaker 2: just like all week, it's just gonna be the CJ
27:15
Speaker 2: Shrout Show. Like I said that on Thing Sunday Night.
27:17
Speaker 2: It's like I saw the tape. I watched the game
27:20
Speaker 2: that I texted yesterday. I rewatch and it's like, this
27:22
Speaker 2: kid is incredible. He's playing out of his mind. Every
27:27
Speaker 2: time he's about to get buried by TJ Watt, he
27:30
Speaker 2: made the right read, the right hot route, the right throw. Crazy.
27:35
Speaker 2: I mean it really is crazy. Like never never saw
27:38
Speaker 2: this coming. I had CJ for months as my number
27:40
Speaker 2: one quarterback. It was what I pitched the team to
27:43
Speaker 2: take and I think you know, a week or two
27:45
Speaker 2: before the season the draft, I should say I moved
27:48
Speaker 2: Richardson to my number one QB just because of a
27:50
Speaker 2: cognitive test. Boy, do I feel like a fucking idiot?
27:53
Speaker 2: Like those tests are bullshits apparently, because this kid is
27:56
Speaker 2: a football savant, like the reads he's making. Maybe it's
28:00
Speaker 2: just the perfect moment, Chad. Maybe this kid just having
28:02
Speaker 2: a moment. It's all clicking, and he'll come back to
28:04
Speaker 2: Earth crashing to Earth. But we've never seen anything like this.
28:09
Speaker 2: I'm having a hard time how to handicap it. Atlanta
28:13
Speaker 2: is going to be a big bet for me this week.
28:14
Speaker 2: I'm all over this number. We do what science says.
28:21
Speaker 2: I love this spot for Atlanta. Everyone is totally giving
28:24
Speaker 2: up on this team. He used to be the most
28:26
Speaker 2: public dog of the week. Atlanta is not as bad
28:28
Speaker 2: as they've looked people, And I get where you're coming from.
28:32
Speaker 2: The hype on the Texans, like, oh, you just don't
28:34
Speaker 2: believe this kid. We do believe in him, me and Chad.
28:36
Speaker 2: If you go back and lift our draft shows, we're
28:38
Speaker 2: all over CJ hyping him up, talking about how great
28:41
Speaker 2: this kid could be. I never saw this coming, Like
28:43
Speaker 2: what we've seen through four weeks. Is really is something
28:46
Speaker 2: just to be be incredible. And if you're a Houston fan, hell,
28:50
Speaker 2: they might be the most excited fan based on football.
28:52
Speaker 2: Like it looks like they got their guy, like they
28:54
Speaker 2: nailed the draft. So I hate to be the guy
28:57
Speaker 2: that dragged them back down here, but this is insane,
29:02
Speaker 2: Like this team, the hype, all of it, there should
29:04
Speaker 2: be three. That's why I said to us Sunday, like
29:07
Speaker 2: this goes blow three, I'm gonna be over with Atlanta team.
29:10
Speaker 2: And it is. And do not be shocked if CJ
29:13
Speaker 2: has a total meltdown in this game and he just
29:16
Speaker 2: has a bad game where he had a great matchup
29:19
Speaker 2: against Jacksonville. He played well, but wasn't like incredible. They
29:24
Speaker 2: had a kick return, they had a bunch of stuff
29:26
Speaker 2: in that game. And then you had this Pittsburgh game
29:28
Speaker 2: where he did play really well. Like I said, he
29:30
Speaker 2: had incredible throws and both his tackle as well. He's
29:33
Speaker 2: got like I don't even think he has a single
29:34
Speaker 2: starter maybe his one starter left on that line from preseason.
29:40
Speaker 2: It's all about Atlanta hearing me where it's like I
29:43
Speaker 2: don't think ritters as bad as people perceive he had
29:46
Speaker 2: horrible game. I think you know, they get them back
29:49
Speaker 2: on track. This is to me a total trendsetter of
29:55
Speaker 2: your entire season. Atlanta loses this, I think I miss
29:58
Speaker 2: missed the playoffs. Houston wins this. Now I have to
30:01
Speaker 2: start thinking, Okay, this team actually might be for real
30:04
Speaker 2: in this division. It might make the playoffs. But as
30:07
Speaker 2: far as it goes and how we play the situations,
30:09
Speaker 2: this is a classic letdown spot from Houston. They played
30:13
Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh, who you know, say what you want about him.
30:17
Speaker 2: That was really a Kenny pickat just a total meltdown game,
30:20
Speaker 2: like he gifted that to them. So I know it
30:22
Speaker 2: truly hard to back Atlanta because I know all of
30:24
Speaker 2: you guys watched that game in England. You gotta forget it.
30:27
Speaker 2: You got to move on to this week and play
30:29
Speaker 2: the number. And you're getting a good number here against
30:31
Speaker 2: a rookie coach and a rookie QB on the road
30:34
Speaker 2: under three in Atlanta. Come on, we gotta take this number.
30:38
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, Desmond Ritter is going to be the starting quarterback.
30:40
Speaker 1: There was conversation, at least speculation rumor people you're hoping,
30:44
Speaker 1: you know, with Taylor Heineke be the starting quarterback. Arthur
30:48
Speaker 1: Smith said Desmond Ritter is going to be the starter.
30:50
Speaker 2: Crazy.
30:51
Speaker 1: By the way, According to the luck rankings, the Falcons
30:54
Speaker 1: were the least lucky team. Oh no, the second least
30:58
Speaker 1: lucky team this past weekend. Bears were three, Falcons were two.
31:03
Speaker 1: We're going to get to number one. So you know,
31:06
Speaker 1: there's a lot of things that you want to fade
31:09
Speaker 1: when it comes to the Texans and their performance, and
31:12
Speaker 1: you want to bet on as far as the Falcons
31:14
Speaker 1: and their performance, and you're not wrong. Seventy two percent
31:17
Speaker 1: of the money of the tickets coming in on the
31:19
Speaker 1: Texans right now.
31:21
Speaker 2: Like, but is the money coming in Atlanta? It's gotta
31:23
Speaker 2: be pro money.
31:24
Speaker 1: There's not a ton of money on Atlanta right now.
31:27
Speaker 2: But shocked by that, Yeah, I assume as pro pro
31:29
Speaker 2: money will come in on this one.
31:31
Speaker 1: No, No, I mean I think pro money has come
31:33
Speaker 1: in on it, which is why it's moved, you know,
31:36
Speaker 1: But I mean it hasn't. It's moved in the direction
31:39
Speaker 1: of the Texans. So there hasn't been a ton of
31:42
Speaker 1: money coming in at the books I'm looking at on
31:46
Speaker 1: the Falcons right now. But that might change now that
31:50
Speaker 1: it's at It got down to one, and now it's
31:52
Speaker 1: at one and a half and two in some places,
31:54
Speaker 1: so it's starting to balance out. Titans visiting the Colts. Look,
32:00
Speaker 1: I asked a question on Sunday night about the Titans.
32:04
Speaker 1: You shot me down. Some would say it wasn't very nice.
32:08
Speaker 1: The people who sometimes feel like you're not very nice
32:10
Speaker 1: to me would say that. You might say you were
32:13
Speaker 1: just answering the question. Whatever it is. I bet the
32:16
Speaker 1: Colts at one and a half, and now the number
32:19
Speaker 1: is closer to pick. Money's coming in on the Colts.
32:22
Speaker 2: Like what you got the Colts at a dog?
32:25
Speaker 1: No, No, I bet the Colts at minus one and
32:27
Speaker 1: a half.
32:27
Speaker 2: Oh so money's coming on the Titans.
32:30
Speaker 1: The bets are on the Titans. The money is on
32:32
Speaker 1: the Colts right now.
32:33
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, I just again another time. I like the
32:36
Speaker 2: spot where we talk all the time. It's all about
32:39
Speaker 2: the number. If the Stummers plus three, maybe two and
32:42
Speaker 2: a half, I'd be all over this Titans team. It's
32:45
Speaker 2: too short, it's too much of a reaction to what
32:47
Speaker 2: they did last week to Joe Burrow. And the simplest
32:50
Speaker 2: way I could break it down to people is the
32:52
Speaker 2: Titans are really, really, really good at the detackle position,
32:55
Speaker 2: but the rest of their defense has a lot of
32:58
Speaker 2: holes and a lot of weaknesses to it. And the
33:00
Speaker 2: way you can attack it is getting a mobile quarterback
33:03
Speaker 2: outside the pocket against them, and you saw against the
33:06
Speaker 2: Browns that's what exactly what the Browns did with Watson,
33:08
Speaker 2: and it worked really well against the Tennessee team. I
33:11
Speaker 2: really liked his coaching staff for the Colts. Like watching
33:14
Speaker 2: that game yesterday, all the positions they put Anthony Richardson in,
33:18
Speaker 2: it really looks like it's all clicking there. Like the
33:20
Speaker 2: same thing where CJ is being put in good positions
33:23
Speaker 2: to succeed with this Texans team. It feels the same
33:25
Speaker 2: with Richardson. And we talked about he had a slow
33:27
Speaker 2: start in their first half, right it's like he's coming
33:30
Speaker 2: back from an injury. You know, these rookies are all
33:32
Speaker 2: going to hit different walls at different points, and I thought, Okay,
33:35
Speaker 2: he's gonna let this one slip away. It was just
33:37
Speaker 2: gonna be a bad game against the Rams. He totally
33:39
Speaker 2: flipped it in the second half and really made some
33:42
Speaker 2: incredible throws with Aaron Donald tackling and things like that,
33:44
Speaker 2: which if you like film room where we're breaking down
33:47
Speaker 2: some Richardson plays tomorrow, it's all about the number for
33:51
Speaker 2: this one for me, where I totally get it. If
33:54
Speaker 2: you're like, well, you guys always said bet Vrabel as
33:56
Speaker 2: a dog. Totally fair, But it's it's all about situations.
33:59
Speaker 2: And we faded Rabel as a three and a half
34:01
Speaker 2: point dog against Cleveland like that was just playing a spot,
34:04
Speaker 2: playing the situation. It feels kind of the same here
34:07
Speaker 2: where this Colts team is better than people perceive and
34:10
Speaker 2: Tennessee is not as good as people perceive. Like that
34:12
Speaker 2: Bengals team just is not the same teams they were
34:14
Speaker 2: last year. I think people need to get rid of
34:16
Speaker 2: that idea in their head right now, Like Joe Burrow
34:18
Speaker 2: clearly is not the same guy. So we're buying low
34:21
Speaker 2: on a team the Colts that you know, they almost
34:25
Speaker 2: came back. I believe it was twenty three to three
34:27
Speaker 2: or twenty three nothing, and they almost came back and
34:29
Speaker 2: stole that game from the Rams. I just I like
34:31
Speaker 2: this team's moxie, and I like this number and Richardson
34:34
Speaker 2: they keep put him in the best position to win,
34:36
Speaker 2: and looking at this matchup, I think Tennessee's defense is
34:39
Speaker 2: really gonna struggle with the playing style of Richardson. So yeah,
34:43
Speaker 2: Little Spooky take a rookie head coach and a rookie
34:46
Speaker 2: quarterback against Rabel. But I'm gonna trust the number. I
34:49
Speaker 2: think it's a good spot here. So not shocked to
34:52
Speaker 2: see that it's a lot of tickets right now in Tennessee.
34:55
Speaker 2: It just feels like the culture of the smart play Simon.
34:58
Speaker 1: I went everyone to make Little Caesars, which is the
35:02
Speaker 1: official pizza sponsor of the NFL, part of your game day, Simon,
35:08
Speaker 1: can you tell me right now would you like to
35:10
Speaker 1: eat more or less than twenty pieces of pizza on
35:15
Speaker 1: game day?
35:16
Speaker 2: More?
35:17
Speaker 1: Order online during our Pizza Pizza pregame one hour before
35:21
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35:25
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35:28
Speaker 1: you crave, Simon, what toppings do you think Lions coach
35:32
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell gets when he orders Little Caesars anklesh? However
35:38
Speaker 1: you order your pizza, no matter how creative, you win.
35:41
Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery. Convenient
35:46
Speaker 1: delivery or our in store pizza portal pickup, So grab
35:50
Speaker 1: some friends and enjoy a few slices during the game.
35:54
Speaker 1: All right, one of other games that is fascinating, and
35:57
Speaker 1: you just mentioned Cincinnati. On Sunday night, when we talked
36:01
Speaker 1: about Cincinnati and Arizona, the Bengals were favored by six.
36:06
Speaker 1: Now they're favored by three, moved to five. While we
36:11
Speaker 1: were recording, it just kept moving. So much love for
36:15
Speaker 1: the Cars because of how they compete, so much hate
36:17
Speaker 1: for the Bengals, who look lost. At some point, we
36:21
Speaker 1: got to think about betting the Bengals here, right.
36:24
Speaker 2: You know, that's why it scares me where it's like
36:26
Speaker 2: I can't live there banging. They're begging for Bengals money.
36:29
Speaker 2: It's crazy how it's already shifted that much. But yeah,
36:33
Speaker 2: you'll lose money on the Bengals enough. I guess the
36:36
Speaker 2: public's just totally off of them. So don't don't know
36:39
Speaker 2: what to do this one. Like I wanted to take
36:41
Speaker 2: the Cardinals. We talked about this one. I was hoping
36:44
Speaker 2: to go back up and it's gone complete other directions.
36:47
Speaker 2: So this will be a quick one. We'll probably touch
36:50
Speaker 2: more on Thursday. But I got no opinion on it
36:52
Speaker 2: right now. It's like it's sitting there at three. I
36:56
Speaker 2: want to take the Bengals, but like be and Chat,
36:58
Speaker 2: had been around the block too long, just up right
37:00
Speaker 2: into it. So I'm gonna keep waiting, but definitely very
37:03
Speaker 2: tempting to back this Bengals team that, yes, they are
37:06
Speaker 2: very bad, I don't know if they're this bad like
37:09
Speaker 2: the Cardinals. Still as good as they've played and they've looked,
37:13
Speaker 2: it's the team that has a lot of weaknesses. So
37:16
Speaker 2: definitely pretty interesting that we're getting this number here and
37:18
Speaker 2: a Bengals team that didn't they just hang three? Are
37:22
Speaker 2: they part of that equation from last week? Are they
37:24
Speaker 2: a team that only put up three points last week?
37:25
Speaker 2: Where it's like, are they part of the sixty one percent?
37:28
Speaker 2: We're supposed to back them here? So definitely, if it
37:31
Speaker 2: gets a two and a half in our contest, I
37:33
Speaker 2: don't know me and Chad Sunday more than that, that's
37:35
Speaker 2: gonna be a conversation that's gonna be tough to pass
37:37
Speaker 2: on taking the Bengals at that number.
37:39
Speaker 1: Well, look, this is when betting gets interesting, right. Why
37:41
Speaker 1: do we decide that some teams that look terrible are
37:45
Speaker 1: the right ones to play in the bounce back? And
37:47
Speaker 1: some teams that look terrible are the wrong ones to
37:49
Speaker 1: play in the bounce back like it's it's so nuanced.
37:53
Speaker 1: The line is always moving on these formulas. It's not
37:56
Speaker 1: just a solid play this team because of AC. Let's
38:00
Speaker 1: play this team because of why system Like you got
38:04
Speaker 1: to think about everything, and Cincinnati's offense does not look good.
38:08
Speaker 1: So we're gonna have a lot of hard conversations come
38:10
Speaker 1: Thursday and come Sunday. If this line keeps moving, I
38:13
Speaker 1: think it'll settle at three and then we're just gonna
38:15
Speaker 1: decide did it move too much? This This next game,
38:19
Speaker 1: to me, is fascinating. The Eagles visiting the Rams. It
38:22
Speaker 1: was at five and a half, it's been bet down
38:24
Speaker 1: to four and a half. Believe the Rams are undefeated
38:27
Speaker 1: against the spread. The Eagles are undefeated in real games
38:32
Speaker 1: and still haven't looked very good. So what do we
38:36
Speaker 1: make of these teams?
38:38
Speaker 2: I think you had a good READO. I think you
38:39
Speaker 2: said you liked the Rams and you were like, think
38:40
Speaker 2: about taking them f five and a half. And my
38:43
Speaker 2: pause was I thought Stafford had gotten banged up in
38:45
Speaker 2: their game, and I wanted to hear what the reports were.
38:47
Speaker 2: And it sounds like he's gonna play through whatever the
38:49
Speaker 2: injury is. McVeagh canon said, like he thinks he's gonna play.
38:53
Speaker 2: We're apparently supposed to got Cooper Cupp back. That's why
38:56
Speaker 2: we like the Rams, Like we were saying, if you've
38:58
Speaker 2: got Cooper Cup, you know, with all these other guys
39:02
Speaker 2: who have really showed up here at even Williams are
39:04
Speaker 2: running back for the Rams, has look great. So you know,
39:09
Speaker 2: Pooka set the record. I think everyone's talking about it
39:12
Speaker 2: where it's like, is this guy just gonna fall off
39:15
Speaker 2: a cliff now with Cooper Cup coming back? I don't
39:19
Speaker 2: really see it being like that. Like Stafford seems to
39:22
Speaker 2: be comfortable this kid, and even when he was triple covered,
39:25
Speaker 2: Stafford's still a trust in him, where like instead of
39:28
Speaker 2: looking for other guys, Stafford like trusted himself about to
39:30
Speaker 2: fit in the window and for Pooka to make the
39:33
Speaker 2: catch and he does, Like the kids got incredible hands.
39:35
Speaker 2: So yeah, Chad, like if we're talking about feeling a
39:41
Speaker 2: little little chalky, it's probably is taking the Rams here,
39:45
Speaker 2: but lucky for us it's I mean, it's not like
39:48
Speaker 2: if you want to grab the four and a half,
39:50
Speaker 2: I would now I could see this keep drop. I
39:51
Speaker 2: could see if it's if Stafford's all good to go,
39:54
Speaker 2: I could see this by game time getting down to
39:55
Speaker 2: three and a half. This this is a crazy game
39:59
Speaker 2: where it's it's like I think Chad Rayden saying, there
40:02
Speaker 2: are a lot of questions right now about the Eagles
40:04
Speaker 2: even though they are four and oh, but this is
40:07
Speaker 2: a great matchup for that Eagles D line Like this,
40:10
Speaker 2: this this front five for the Rams ain't nothing. Ain't
40:13
Speaker 2: nothing brought Rave home about. So if you could, I'd
40:17
Speaker 2: grab the four and a half now, just because I
40:18
Speaker 2: do think this will keep dropping. The pros just seem
40:21
Speaker 2: to love this Rams team. We've seen it, like Chad
40:23
Speaker 2: just said, three to zero one and depends when you
40:26
Speaker 2: got that number. That that one was a push against
40:28
Speaker 2: the Bengals. You could have got six and a half
40:30
Speaker 2: and we gave it out that Sunday night and you
40:32
Speaker 2: could have got three and a half all day and
40:33
Speaker 2: Monday the next day. So they're really to a lot
40:36
Speaker 2: of people, there are four No. This Rams team has
40:38
Speaker 2: just been incredible this season for covering.
40:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a it's a tricky game, Like I know
40:45
Speaker 1: in my head, the right side is the Rams and
40:47
Speaker 1: in my heart. I keep thinking the Eagles are just
40:50
Speaker 1: getting better and better, and they're just one of those
40:52
Speaker 1: teams they play with the kind of confidence where they're
40:56
Speaker 1: not they don't they don't feel the pressure. They're not
41:03
Speaker 1: acting with irrational urgency is what I would call it,
41:07
Speaker 1: meaning they know they're good, they know how to win,
41:12
Speaker 1: They're putting themselves in a position to win when they
41:14
Speaker 1: need to, and they're working out their issues at the
41:17
Speaker 1: same time, and that's really fucking hard to do. Like
41:19
Speaker 1: they're you know, they're changing the wheels on a semi
41:21
Speaker 1: as it rolls down the road and that's just impressive.
41:24
Speaker 2: So I like, yeah, they got bad injuries too. There
41:26
Speaker 2: are number two and number three corners are out and
41:28
Speaker 2: their middle starting linebackers out. So it is a team
41:31
Speaker 2: that if Stafford's got all his guns back, you're gonna
41:34
Speaker 2: be able to pass the ball. We just saw Sam
41:36
Speaker 2: Howe look like an All Pro against the secondary.
41:38
Speaker 1: Yep, the Chiefs are on the road at the Vikings
41:43
Speaker 1: on Sunday night. I was very tempted to take the
41:45
Speaker 1: Chiefs or the Vikings at plus six.
41:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, good call, and.
41:51
Speaker 1: I didn't do it.
41:52
Speaker 2: You know, I couldn't get there with you because I
41:54
Speaker 2: was like, oh, this number will keep going up, because again,
41:56
Speaker 2: the Chiefs hadn't played yet, and our whole thinking was,
42:00
Speaker 2: if the Chiefs do cover this number tonight, you might
42:02
Speaker 2: be able to get six and a half. Seven. Luckily
42:05
Speaker 2: for me and Chad, they did not cover that number,
42:06
Speaker 2: and my name Mahomes took the slide right because he
42:09
Speaker 2: knew there was some BS holding penalty a couple of
42:12
Speaker 2: plays before, and you know, looking at this Minnesota team,
42:17
Speaker 2: it is scary to back this number. But me and
42:20
Speaker 2: Chad said all the time, we only backed Mahomes when
42:23
Speaker 2: he's under a field goal or a dog. We fade
42:26
Speaker 2: Mahomes and he's over a field goal. So we're getting five,
42:30
Speaker 2: five and a half. People like it sucks, but we're
42:33
Speaker 2: playing the percentages here, Like, if you play the percentages,
42:36
Speaker 2: this is a smart bet to make on Minnesota. Yes,
42:40
Speaker 2: Kirk looked like dog shit against Carolina. This is a
42:43
Speaker 2: different scenario. This is Kirk at home. Kirk at home
42:46
Speaker 2: is a different play. He always plays better at home.
42:49
Speaker 2: And you know, I'm not going to another thing I
42:53
Speaker 2: want to react to is I said something looks right
42:54
Speaker 2: about the Chiefs offense, and we saw that against the Jets, right,
42:56
Speaker 2: he had all those terrible picks and those turnovers. I'm
43:00
Speaker 2: trying not to react to that because this Minnesota defense
43:03
Speaker 2: is horrid. Bull They are so bad. If you look
43:06
Speaker 2: on paper this defense, man, they might be bottom twenty six,
43:10
Speaker 2: twenty seven, like they're way down there, one of the
43:12
Speaker 2: worst defenses in football. So definitely a game where you're
43:16
Speaker 2: making this bet on the Vikings, it's a bet on
43:17
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins. Like, That's what me and Chat are saying here,
43:19
Speaker 2: is like, Kirk will keep us in this game, He'll
43:22
Speaker 2: be able to keep up with Mahomes and score points.
43:25
Speaker 2: Hate it. But another one that's like might not be
43:27
Speaker 2: in our big balls better of the week. Maybe that
43:29
Speaker 2: is every week on against the Chiefs. But it feels
43:31
Speaker 2: that way where it's like take Kirk and the points here,
43:34
Speaker 2: it's too big of a spread like this to me
43:36
Speaker 2: should be closer to four, five, five and a half.
43:39
Speaker 2: It's a good number. So, yeah, sucks. I talked you
43:42
Speaker 2: off to getting the six. Chat, you were spot on
43:43
Speaker 2: getting that Sunday night. But that's one it is I
43:46
Speaker 2: regret not grabbing because you know we had a good read.
43:48
Speaker 2: We should have took the number, and we should have
43:50
Speaker 2: known that the Chiefs weren't going to cover that. So
43:52
Speaker 2: that's definitely a tough one to swallow.
43:54
Speaker 1: Here's a number that is scary if you're going to
43:56
Speaker 1: bet on the Minnesota Vikings against arguably the greatest statistical
44:02
Speaker 1: quarterback who's ever lived. Already, they have allowed the sixth
44:06
Speaker 1: highest completion percentage all time through four games so far
44:12
Speaker 1: this year. This is a shootout game, right, Like, this
44:15
Speaker 1: is the exact type of game Kansas City comes into
44:19
Speaker 1: Minnesota and it is a classic witching hour game, final
44:23
Speaker 1: possession game. Like that's how this game to me ends
44:26
Speaker 1: up going it is. You know how you like that
44:29
Speaker 1: game from Kirk Cousins. To me, that's how it all right.
44:32
Speaker 1: Our favorite team, the New York Jets visiting the Denver Broncos.
44:36
Speaker 1: Broncos are two and a half point favorites. Broncos defense.
44:40
Speaker 1: I just gave you the stat about the Vikings. The
44:42
Speaker 1: Broncos defense has allowed the highest completion percentage all time
44:47
Speaker 1: through four games. Meanwhile, we have to be asking ourselves
44:50
Speaker 1: to the Jets see something with Zach Wilson they think
44:53
Speaker 1: they can replicate against the defense like this. I feel
44:58
Speaker 1: like we're at peak Jets. I know it's hard to
45:01
Speaker 1: take the Broncos. He might be a pete Broncos too,
45:05
Speaker 1: But the Broncos might be the right side here.
45:07
Speaker 2: Yeah they are. Yeah, this this number is two short.
45:09
Speaker 2: If it was three and a half, I would have
45:11
Speaker 2: loved the Jets. They'd been a great number. Another time
45:13
Speaker 2: to fade this Broncos team over a field goal, that'd
45:16
Speaker 2: have been great. But it's not like people are now
45:19
Speaker 2: in on Zach Wilson. They're thinking what you're thinking, which
45:21
Speaker 2: is like, well, if you can do it against the
45:23
Speaker 2: Chiefs such a great defense, surely you'll be able to
45:26
Speaker 2: pass and do well against this terrible defense on the
45:29
Speaker 2: Denver And it's like, NFL don't work that way. Like
45:32
Speaker 2: one game you got, the next game you don't. That's
45:33
Speaker 2: what makes so hard the quarterback position. It's like all
45:36
Speaker 2: these guys are uber talented and great athletes. It's weak
45:40
Speaker 2: to week consistency. That's the hardest thing in the NFL.
45:43
Speaker 2: It's like to be consistent week the week. Such a
45:45
Speaker 2: letdown spot for this Jets team like that was. I
45:48
Speaker 2: feel like they put everything into that Chiefs game. It
45:51
Speaker 2: was right there. I mean that guy, I think it
45:53
Speaker 2: was a punt, right, it was twenty twenty. They punted it.
45:55
Speaker 2: This guy had one man to beat and he tripped
45:58
Speaker 2: up for this Jets team. They'd end up not winning
46:00
Speaker 2: that game, and it was like it was all there
46:02
Speaker 2: for that team. On the flip side, Denver, even if
46:06
Speaker 2: you're scared off by this defense, it's Russell Wilson that's
46:09
Speaker 2: making me feel okay taking this number check Like this
46:12
Speaker 2: guy has been playing really well in this Sean Payton
46:14
Speaker 2: offense and he's not doing the stupid shit he was
46:16
Speaker 2: doing last year. Like it's night and day seeing what
46:19
Speaker 2: he did last year to this year, where if it's
46:22
Speaker 2: not there, he's not going to just force it. You
46:24
Speaker 2: either use his legs, he'll throw it out a bounce
46:26
Speaker 2: or take the easy check down instead of forcing it
46:28
Speaker 2: turn the ball over, which he couldn't stop doing last year.
46:30
Speaker 2: So I love what I've seen from Russ this year.
46:33
Speaker 2: It's none of it, none of the blame I put
46:35
Speaker 2: on him for what Denver start. It's all been about
46:37
Speaker 2: their defense. So totally fair. If you're a hesitant because
46:40
Speaker 2: Denver has one of the worst I mean, Chat has
46:42
Speaker 2: told you they have one of the worst defenses ever statistically,
46:45
Speaker 2: but Russell Wilson fake makes me feel confident taking this one.
46:48
Speaker 2: Like I'm getting Russ against Zach Wilson. Pretty comparable teams, right,
46:53
Speaker 2: I mean, I'd give the Jets a little bit of
46:54
Speaker 2: an edge just because their defense is that much better
46:56
Speaker 2: of a unit, but not that much difference than make
46:59
Speaker 2: it under our field goals. So I get a publics
47:01
Speaker 2: and to come in on this Jets team. They're going
47:03
Speaker 2: to be hyped up about this sac Wilson stuff. But
47:06
Speaker 2: I gotta just fade that noise and take what I
47:09
Speaker 2: think is the better quarterback right now and Russell Wilson
47:11
Speaker 2: under a field goal at home.
47:14
Speaker 1: It's so interesting because Russell Wilson, we expected him to
47:20
Speaker 1: be better with Sean Payton. No one expected this defense
47:24
Speaker 1: to be nearly as historically bad as it has been,
47:29
Speaker 1: and that's been their biggest issue Russell Wilson, just like
47:31
Speaker 1: in our first couple of games in the first half,
47:33
Speaker 1: like they even made adjustments off of that. But this
47:36
Speaker 1: defense can't stop anybody.
47:38
Speaker 2: It's crazy.
47:39
Speaker 1: It's gonna be a hard one for us to make. Simon,
47:41
Speaker 1: can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the
47:44
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48:46
Speaker 1: Sinai Football Dallas at San Francisco nine ers minus three
48:50
Speaker 1: and a half. This was an immediate bet on our
48:53
Speaker 1: Sunday Night pot. I can tell you of all the
48:55
Speaker 1: bets I've made so far. This is the biggest bet
48:58
Speaker 1: I've made this week. To be the biggest bet I
49:01
Speaker 1: made this week. I think there is such a discrepancy
49:04
Speaker 1: between this Niners team and this Cowboys team, And this
49:07
Speaker 1: Cowboys team is getting way too much credit from the
49:10
Speaker 1: market for a team they were in Week one, not
49:12
Speaker 1: the team they are in Week five.
49:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard for me to say, just because I
49:17
Speaker 2: do think Dallas is so good. But you know, we're
49:20
Speaker 2: talking about these two teams and how I feel about them.
49:25
Speaker 2: Chat your spot on. I said it on Sunday Night.
49:27
Speaker 2: I'd make the forty nine ers a small favorite, and
49:29
Speaker 2: even if they were in Dallas, So of course I'm
49:34
Speaker 2: taking the forty nine ers here. And you know, it's
49:38
Speaker 2: not just because I hate doing this stuff, because it's like, yeah,
49:42
Speaker 2: I'm just shitting on the Cowboys, but a lot does
49:45
Speaker 2: go into where it's like they do beat up on
49:48
Speaker 2: these bad teams, like that's Dak's specialty. He is so
49:51
Speaker 2: good against these bad teams, and maybe I do need
49:53
Speaker 2: to adjust to that. And you know, say what you
49:56
Speaker 2: want about that Cardinals team, like, well he lost that
49:58
Speaker 2: bad team that was a classic. They kind of just
50:01
Speaker 2: overlooked that team and that doesn't really happen with them,
50:04
Speaker 2: And looking at this match up here with the forty
50:06
Speaker 2: nine ers, we kind of talked about Sunday where it's like,
50:09
Speaker 2: how do I not back this horn Airs team? It's
50:11
Speaker 2: all it's all buzzing right, Like McCaffrey's look great. Pretty Yes,
50:16
Speaker 2: he doesn't looked as incredible as he did last year,
50:18
Speaker 2: but little things I talked about, I think he's doing
50:20
Speaker 2: really well. He's checking out a certain looks, making other
50:23
Speaker 2: looks where it's like fifty to fifty ball downfield. He
50:26
Speaker 2: was not throwing that last year. This year he is
50:27
Speaker 2: doing He's trusting his receivers. Ayuk is supposed to be back,
50:30
Speaker 2: you know, if he's if everything is healthy right now
50:34
Speaker 2: for this forty nine ers team where Dallas has had
50:37
Speaker 2: their injuries, Okay Cooks, their number three receiver has been out.
50:40
Speaker 2: We already know Digs is out for the season. That's
50:42
Speaker 2: a big deal to this team. Like you went from
50:44
Speaker 2: having a real shutdown corner, a ballhawk, a guy who
50:47
Speaker 2: gets what was it eighteen interceptions in three seasons? Its
50:50
Speaker 2: some crazy number like that. It's just gone from this
50:52
Speaker 2: Dallas defense. And you know the flip side. He saw
50:56
Speaker 2: the Cardinals team run the ball everywhere they wanted against
51:01
Speaker 2: this Dallas team. That is Dallas's achilles heel, and that
51:04
Speaker 2: will continue to be that way until they address getting
51:06
Speaker 2: a good d tackle that can stop the run. We're
51:08
Speaker 2: a linebacker that can stop the run. They didn't do
51:10
Speaker 2: that offseason, right, They went out and they addressed other positions.
51:14
Speaker 2: So that's their biggest weakness. And the best two teams,
51:18
Speaker 2: the NFC, are the best two running teams in all
51:20
Speaker 2: of football.
51:21
Speaker 1: All right, Sorry for those listening live and watching live,
51:24
Speaker 1: We had a little bit of a laptop crash. The
51:26
Speaker 1: laptop got too hot because the takes were too hot. Yeah,
51:29
Speaker 1: this is so far my biggest bet of the week,
51:31
Speaker 1: one of the bigger bets I've made this season. But
51:33
Speaker 1: that is that's our take on the Cowboys and the
51:36
Speaker 1: and the Niners. We like the Niners. Here Monday Night Football,
51:39
Speaker 1: Green Bay visiting the Raiders. Raiders two point underdogs here.
51:43
Speaker 1: Raiders were the most unlucky team in Week four. I
51:46
Speaker 1: talked about the Bears, you know, I talked about the
51:49
Speaker 1: Bears and I talked about the Falcons. Look, we were
51:51
Speaker 1: both on the Raiders against the Chargers. Even though they
51:54
Speaker 1: gave multiple short fields to the Chargers, they still had
51:58
Speaker 1: a chance to score. For a bad read by a
52:01
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback in his first start at the Chargers three
52:04
Speaker 1: yard line led to a pick. I'm getting a home
52:07
Speaker 1: dog in prime time. I feel like we got to
52:10
Speaker 1: take the Raiders here.
52:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'll save my big breakdown for Thursday show
52:15
Speaker 2: and this one. Yeah, Raiders, I love love love them
52:18
Speaker 2: this week, love them in this spot. Hoping this gets
52:20
Speaker 2: the three great great Bilo opportunity. But even on Sunday night,
52:24
Speaker 2: when I saw this number, I was like, well, I
52:26
Speaker 2: can end up on the Raiders again this week. So
52:28
Speaker 2: I'm grabbing the two and a half now. I think
52:30
Speaker 2: you all should just in case Jimmy g gets cleared
52:32
Speaker 2: and the nummer does come down. But even if so O'Connell,
52:35
Speaker 2: I like what I saw from the kids, so definitely
52:37
Speaker 2: a game. Well, I'm gonna break down more for you
52:39
Speaker 2: guys on Thursday, but yeah, grab that number now, two
52:41
Speaker 2: and a half. I was gonna make this what Simon says,
52:44
Speaker 2: but with all the movement on that Atlanta number, I
52:46
Speaker 2: just went to get the two or one and a
52:47
Speaker 2: half before it goes to two and a half three,
52:49
Speaker 2: so both these games I would grab now.
52:51
Speaker 1: Reminder, the exact decision is New Orleans plus one and
52:54
Speaker 1: a half. The assignmon says is Atlanta minus one and
52:59
Speaker 1: a half. Somehow, we've got a whole host of games
53:03
Speaker 1: that we've decided are interesting, even though when we first
53:06
Speaker 1: started at the top of the show, we weren't sure,
53:08
Speaker 1: and it certainly wasn't as easy as last week. So
53:11
Speaker 1: we'll have a lot more to break down on Thursday.
53:14
Speaker 1: We'll go deeper on Cowboys forty nine ers, we'll go
53:16
Speaker 1: deeper on Packers and Raiders. A lot to say about Atlanta,
53:20
Speaker 1: a lot to say about the Colts, a lot to
53:22
Speaker 1: say about New Orleans and the Patriots. Reminder, the Favorites
53:27
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