Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / LAST CHANCE for Big Payouts in South Carolina / Oklahoma Primary Runoffs

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LAST CHANCE for Big Payouts in South Carolina / Oklahoma Primary Runoffs · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  Today,
• 0:03
  we got a great show for you.
• 0:04
  We have elections.
• 0:06
  Yes,
• 0:06
  there's still primaries going on.
• 0:08
  We've got a couple more going on for you and we will outline
• 0:11
  what's gonna happen in Oklahoma and what's gonna happen
• 0:14
  in South Carolina here to start the show.
• 0:16
  We also have some questions about polls.
• 0:18
  Are polls being made up?
• 0:20
  Can we believe any of them
• 0:22
  anymore?
• 0:22
  We'll get into that.
• 0:24
  Uh,
• 0:24
  and,
• 0:24
  uh,
• 0:25
  we have some fascinating,
• 0:26
  uh,
• 0:27
  stories in the world of sports as well.
• 0:29
  Will
• 0:30
  a former number 3 overall pick play
• 0:33
  in the in the WNBA?
• 0:35
  He was a pick in the NBA.
• 0:37
  He was a man.
• 0:39
  Now he may be a woman,
• 0:40
  we don't know.
• 0:41
  Will he play
• 0:42
  in the WNBA next year?
• 0:44
  We'll get into that and so much more.
• 0:46
  Thank you so much for joining us.
• 0:47
  It's Predictable
• 0:48
  with Stu.
• 0:48
  Get us on YouTube,
• 0:49
  youtube.com/atpredictableshow
• 0:52
  and join us as well at predictableshow.com.
• 1:10
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 1:12
  I am live in uh New York.
• 1:16
  Uh,
• 1:16
  well,
• 1:16
  I mean,
• 1:16
  I don't know if I'm live,
• 1:17
  you could be watching me on delay,
• 1:18
  but I'm alive and I'm here in New York.
• 1:20
  Uh,
• 1:21
  no,
• 1:21
  you know,
• 1:21
  with the Mom Donnie running the place,
• 1:23
  who knows how long that one lasts,
• 1:24
  but I'm here for the moment.
• 1:25
  Uh,
• 1:26
  and the,
• 1:27
  the,
• 1:27
  the heart is still beating.
• 1:28
  I'm here for,
• 1:29
  uh,
• 1:29
  actually gonna be on Greg Gutfeld show tonight,
• 1:31
  really excited about that.
• 1:33
  Gonna be a lot of fun.
• 1:34
  So if you get a second,
• 1:35
  check us out.
• 1:36
  We're gonna be on Gutfeld.
• 1:37
  I'll be one of,
• 1:38
  one of the people there making,
• 1:39
  uh,
• 1:39
  stupid jokes and hopefully they're,
• 1:41
  they're
• 1:42
  stupid but also funny
• 1:43
  cause that's really the,
• 1:44
  the highest point I can also,
• 1:46
  uh,
• 1:46
  go for on a particular.
• 1:47
  Uh,
• 1:48
  any,
• 1:48
  any day,
• 1:49
  honestly,
• 1:49
  you see this on this show.
• 1:50
  I'm hoping to bring maybe a little bit of that over,
• 1:52
  uh,
• 1:53
  to the,
• 1:53
  the Gutfeld experience.
• 1:54
  It's gonna be a lot of fun,
• 1:55
  so join us over on Gutfeld tonight.
• 1:56
  Um,
• 1:57
  OK,
• 1:57
  so,
• 1:57
  uh,
• 1:58
  we have a lot of stuff to go through today
• 1:59
  because it was,
• 2:01
  uh,
• 2:01
  we have a couple of really fascinating races
• 2:04
  that we've been watching for a long time.
• 2:07
  In fact,
• 2:08
  one of my biggest positions
• 2:09
  in the entire election cycle was on this race,
• 2:14
  sort of.
• 2:17
  Because if you go back in time a little bit,
• 2:19
  uh,
• 2:20
  you'll know
• 2:21
  that,
• 2:21
  uh,
• 2:21
  the South Carolina race was one of my bigger positions
• 2:24
  when it first happened.
• 2:25
  We've already done this election.
• 2:27
  This is,
• 2:27
  uh,
• 2:27
  Groundhog Day.
• 2:28
  We're doing this again,
• 2:29
  yet another layer
• 2:30
  of what's going on here,
• 2:32
  uh,
• 2:32
  today.
• 2:32
  So,
• 2:33
  uh,
• 2:33
  we have 71 days until the midterm elections as of today,
• 2:37
  and only 25 days until early voting
• 2:40
  begins.
• 2:40
  Think about that for a moment.
• 2:42
  This is it,
• 2:42
  we're here.
• 2:43
  This is the,
• 2:44
  the,
• 2:45
  we've talked about this for a while.
• 2:46
  Well,
• 2:47
  maybe if,
• 2:47
  you know,
• 2:47
  X,
• 2:48
  Y,
• 2:48
  or Z happens and this problem gets solved,
• 2:50
  you know,
• 2:50
  uh,
• 2:51
  the,
• 2:51
  the,
• 2:51
  the climate will change a little bit,
• 2:52
  maybe for Republicans if they can
• 2:54
  show improvement on X,
• 2:55
  Y,
• 2:56
  or Z.
• 2:57
  Really,
• 2:57
  that time's gone.
• 2:58
  Uh,
• 2:59
  you know,
• 2:59
  that people
• 3:00
  lock their opinions in as they come back from the summer.
• 3:02
  This is the time you'd have to have that stuff fixed,
• 3:05
  and we will see if they,
• 3:06
  if the American people
• 3:07
  believe that it is fixed.
• 3:09
  Uh,
• 3:09
  we're gonna have at some point go through.
• 3:11
  Uh maybe I'll do this next week.
• 3:13
  I want to spend some time on
• 3:14
  the absolute catastrophic case for Republicans because there is a case for it.
• 3:18
  There is a case that this could go incredibly bad in some of these races,
• 3:22
  uh,
• 3:22
  that are
• 3:23
  that look to be favored for Republicans could go the other way.
• 3:26
  I want to at least spend some time thinking about that.
• 3:29
  I don't think that's the most likely outcome,
• 3:30
  but I do think it is a possibility,
• 3:32
  and it's something that we should consider as we approach these prediction markets
• 3:36
  and understand that that risk does.
• 3:38
  Exists.
• 3:39
  I mean,
• 3:39
  the potential of a massive wipeout for Republicans,
• 3:43
  we're at least in the realm of possibility.
• 3:45
  It's not,
• 3:46
  I would say,
• 3:46
  the most,
• 3:47
  uh,
• 3:47
  most likely outcome,
• 3:48
  but it is
• 3:49
  in the realm of possibility and something that we have to consider,
• 3:52
  especially as we price these things,
• 3:53
  and,
• 3:54
  you know,
• 3:54
  where the opportunities are,
• 3:55
  right?
• 3:55
  If there's something where a Republican would normally be
• 3:58
  a 70% favorite.
• 3:59
  Um,
• 4:00
  you know,
• 4:00
  maybe,
• 4:01
  you know,
• 4:02
  maybe you lower that in your head a little bit and you add in a little bit of,
• 4:05
  uh,
• 4:05
  of risk,
• 4:06
  uh,
• 4:06
  associated.
• 4:07
  So we'll get into that a little bit more over in a couple,
• 4:08
  couple of weeks.
• 4:09
  Here's what we have coming up tomorrow.
• 4:11
  There is the,
• 4:11
  uh,
• 4:11
  runoff in Oklahoma.
• 4:13
  And the runoff in South Carolina.
• 4:16
  South Carolina polls
• 4:17
  close an hour earlier tomorrow at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
• 4:20
  Oklahoma closes at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
• 4:22
  Next week,
• 4:22
  we'll have Massachusetts.
• 4:23
  I do have a race I want to highlight for you
• 4:26
  in Massachusetts where there's some profit there,
• 4:29
  and I think it's a good
• 4:31
  opportunity.
• 4:31
  I was uh investing in this over the weekend.
• 4:34
  Uh,
• 4:34
  I want to get to that.
• 4:35
  We also have New Hampshire and Rhode Island the week after,
• 4:38
  and then Delaware is the last 1
• 4:40
  September 15th,
• 4:42
  Delaware is the final,
• 4:43
  um,
• 4:43
  primary of this season,
• 4:45
  you know,
• 4:45
  unless we have some other crazy thing happening,
• 4:47
  and that's what happened in South Carolina.
• 4:49
  They had the primary,
• 4:50
  uh,
• 4:51
  Lindsey Graham won.
• 4:52
  That was one of my bigger positions in this race,
• 4:54
  not because there was tons of profit there,
• 4:56
  but I did think,
• 4:57
  given the dynamic of,
• 4:58
  of Lindsey Graham in the state of South Carolina.
• 5:01
  The way he kind of has,
• 5:03
  uh,
• 5:03
  you know,
• 5:04
  stature as just when it comes to name recognition and just being the guy
• 5:08
  who was there for all these years,
• 5:10
  I really thought he was gonna win that primary and win it easily.
• 5:12
  One of the misses I did have on that race was him winning by over 20 or 20 or 30 points.
• 5:18
  I don't remember which one it was,
• 5:19
  um,
• 5:20
  because,
• 5:20
  you know,
• 5:20
  really,
• 5:21
  he didn't have a
• 5:22
  big name competitor.
• 5:23
  This is not a particularly competitive race.
• 5:25
  It's just that there's just
• 5:27
  a.
• 5:28
  There's about 60% of Republican voters in
• 5:31
  South Carolina that really liked Lindsey Graham,
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  or at least
• 5:34
  thought of him as the best candidate over and over and over again,
• 5:36
  no matter who he was going up against.
• 5:38
  And everybody else was kind of,
• 5:40
  I think,
• 5:40
  lukewarm on Lindsey Graham,
• 5:41
  frankly,
• 5:42
  but that was usually enough to get him over the hump.
• 5:44
  In this particular race,
• 5:45
  I think he wound up with 57% of the vote.
• 5:47
  Uh,
• 5:48
  so I lost on my margin,
• 5:49
  uh,
• 5:49
  picture.
• 5:50
  That was not where I had the,
• 5:51
  um,
• 5:51
  uh,
• 5:52
  the,
• 5:52
  the large position.
• 5:52
  A large position was just on him winning,
• 5:54
  which we did hit,
• 5:55
  and it was,
• 5:56
  uh,
• 5:56
  it was fun to hit that.
• 5:58
  That being said,
• 5:59
  of course,
• 5:59
  Lindsey Graham goes overseas,
• 6:01
  he comes back and actually,
• 6:02
  of course,
• 6:03
  uh,
• 6:03
  passes away.
• 6:04
  This leaves just chaos
• 6:06
  in the Republican
• 6:07
  side.
• 6:08
  Almost immediately,
• 6:10
  actually the first pick for Donald Trump was Russell Frye,
• 6:12
  who was a,
• 6:13
  uh,
• 6:13
  is a congressman,
• 6:15
  um,
• 6:15
  and had been,
• 6:16
  you know,
• 6:16
  closely associated with Trump for a long time.
• 6:19
  Uh,
• 6:20
  the people around him and,
• 6:21
  uh,
• 6:23
  reportedly the people who favored Graham in South Carolina
• 6:27
  tried to change him on that and did successfully kind of lobby for
• 6:31
  his endorsement to go to Graham,
• 6:34
  uh,
• 6:34
  the sister of Lindsey Graham,
• 6:36
  Darlene.
• 6:36
  Uh,
• 6:37
  she was put into office in as an appointee
• 6:42
  and then now is running for the full term.
• 6:44
  Now,
• 6:44
  appointees don't usually do as well.
• 6:47
  As people who won the job through the election.
• 6:50
  So you,
• 6:50
  if you appoint someone,
• 6:52
  you know,
• 6:52
  the incumbency factor is still there,
• 6:54
  it's just not there as strongly
• 6:57
  as it would normally be in one of these races.
• 6:59
  And so a lot of this stuff in both Oklahoma and,
• 7:02
  uh,
• 7:03
  South Carolina,
• 7:03
  frankly,
• 7:04
  come down to the power of Trump's endorsement.
• 7:07
  And we've talked a lot about this.
• 7:08
  Early on in the primary season,
• 7:10
  we won a lot of races
• 7:12
  based almost solely on Trump's endorsement because he
• 7:15
  basically gets what he wants in these primaries.
• 7:17
  That was our thesis statement kind of at the beginning of this election,
• 7:19
  and that held for a long time.
• 7:21
  It started to weaken as we got a little bit later,
• 7:23
  and we eventually pulled it back from the
• 7:25
  thesis level statement,
• 7:26
  which is kind of the way we look at these things.
• 7:29
  Almost like a rule,
• 7:30
  like,
• 7:30
  OK,
• 7:31
  this is a,
• 7:31
  this is a current rule.
• 7:32
  Right now,
• 7:33
  this is happening,
• 7:34
  we need to realize this is a,
• 7:35
  is a reality.
• 7:36
  We kind of have a thesis,
• 7:37
  uh,
• 7:38
  an active thesis or a retired thesis.
• 7:40
  We wound up retiring this thesis statement after,
• 7:42
  uh,
• 7:42
  I think it was South Carolina's gubernatorial primary.
• 7:45
  Um,
• 7:45
  this is kind of,
• 7:46
  let me just show you what the,
• 7:47
  this is from DDHQ and I wanna show you the kind of like the,
• 7:49
  what the Trump endorsements have looked like so far.
• 7:53
  Um,
• 7:53
  here,
• 7:54
  here they are,
• 7:54
  and this is kind of running the slough.
• 7:56
  This is the
• 7:57
  performance of 2026 gubernatorial candidates,
• 8:00
  so it's not Senate.
• 8:01
  He's won,
• 8:01
  I think,
• 8:01
  every single Senate
• 8:03
  race he's endorsed,
• 8:04
  but
• 8:04
  there haven't been a lot,
• 8:05
  there's been a lot of incumbents and there's been a lot of like clear cases here.
• 8:08
  So I want to look at the gubernatorial ones where there's been more competition.
• 8:11
  You see Pamela Yvett being
• 8:13
  the,
• 8:13
  um,
• 8:14
  the
• 8:15
  endorsee that kind of threw us off on this,
• 8:17
  but you see,
• 8:17
  she,
• 8:18
  there have been some losses here.
• 8:20
  Mike Lindell,
• 8:20
  of course,
• 8:21
  Randy Feenstra in Iowa,
• 8:23
  uh,
• 8:23
  and Bert Jones in Georgia.
• 8:25
  Uh,
• 8:25
  Ty Masterson won,
• 8:26
  James won,
• 8:27
  Biggs won.
• 8:28
  A lot of these though were
• 8:29
  sort of obvious wins.
• 8:30
  Like there,
• 8:31
  there was no competition for Tom Tiffany really in Wisconsin.
• 8:34
  Um,
• 8:34
  you'd say the same thing about,
• 8:36
  uh,
• 8:36
  Vivek or,
• 8:37
  uh,
• 8:38
  Tommy Tuberville
• 8:40
  in Alabama.
• 8:40
  These were,
• 8:41
  he didn't,
• 8:42
  you know,
• 8:42
  a couple of them are completely unopposed,
• 8:44
  some of them were 90,
• 8:45
  80%,
• 8:45
  90% of the vote.
• 8:46
  There just wasn't a lot of,
• 8:47
  uh,
• 8:48
  risk there.
• 8:48
  So,
• 8:49
  um,
• 8:49
  that's what that looks like right now.
• 8:50
  You see,
• 8:51
  when it's close,
• 8:53
  a lot of these haven't been successful for
• 8:55
  Trump.
• 8:56
  So that's kind of the thing,
• 8:57
  and I think we've talked about this before as well.
• 8:59
  There are multiple levels of Trump endorsement.
• 9:02
  Trump endorsement,
• 9:03
  like,
• 9:03
  let's say level one,
• 9:05
  is
• 9:06
  he really cares about the race and he puts some elbow grease behind it.
• 9:10
  He is out there campaigning,
• 9:11
  he's out there endorsing publicly,
• 9:13
  he's putting Truth Social posts out,
• 9:15
  he's doing interviews where he mentions them.
• 9:17
  He wants this to happen.
• 9:18
  We saw this as a big factor and we won big on this one,
• 9:22
  with Thomas Massey back in Kentucky in Congress,
• 9:26
  and the reason for that was he hated,
• 9:29
  he despised Thomas Massey.
• 9:31
  And so he did everything that he possibly could
• 9:35
  to put his opponent,
• 9:37
  um,
• 9:37
  uh,
• 9:37
  Ed Galrein over the,
• 9:39
  uh,
• 9:40
  over the line.
• 9:41
  We saw that one coming and we,
• 9:42
  that was a big win for us.
• 9:44
  I mean,
• 9:44
  that was,
• 9:44
  you know,
• 9:44
  I don't know,
• 9:45
  90 or 100% uh win
• 9:47
  on that particular race.
• 9:49
  And
• 9:49
  even though Thomas Massie is sitting congressman.
• 9:52
  Some of these others,
• 9:53
  Pamela Yvette is the best example of this.
• 9:55
  Pamela Yvett was up for
• 9:56
  South Carolina governor.
• 9:57
  He endorsed Yvette.
• 9:59
  We went with Yvette in that first round.
• 10:00
  She did win that first round and she made it into the runoff,
• 10:03
  but she didn't get to 50%.
• 10:05
  And then as time wore on,
• 10:06
  in fact,
• 10:07
  almost immediately,
• 10:07
  there's only a two-week period between uh first election and runoff,
• 10:12
  uh,
• 10:12
  he
• 10:13
  kind of came to the table.
• 10:14
  Trump and was like,
• 10:15
  actually,
• 10:15
  I kind of like them both.
• 10:17
  And so that just destroyed Yvette's chances.
• 10:20
  I think he had seen some bowling that looked like Yvette might lose.
• 10:23
  I was like,
• 10:23
  look,
• 10:23
  I'm not gonna be,
• 10:24
  I,
• 10:24
  I don't,
• 10:24
  I don't really care about Pamela Ovetch,
• 10:26
  she's the one I picked,
• 10:27
  whatever.
• 10:28
  He didn't really put his elbow grease into that.
• 10:30
  So,
• 10:31
  that is what you're looking at,
• 10:32
  those two different versions,
• 10:34
  right?
• 10:34
  Yvette is the kind of like,
• 10:36
  uh,
• 10:36
  you know,
• 10:37
  sure,
• 10:37
  her,
• 10:38
  and then,
• 10:39
  you know,
• 10:40
  Galri was like,
• 10:40
  this guy's gotta win,
• 10:41
  I can't stand his opponent.
• 10:43
  A lot of it,
• 10:43
  I will say,
• 10:44
  usually comes for a hatred.
• 10:47
  Of the opponent rather than a full-fledged endorsement of who he's running for.
• 10:51
  Um,
• 10:51
  you know,
• 10:52
  Lindell was maybe the exception to that,
• 10:53
  where Lindell was very,
• 10:54
  very loyal to Trump and kind of,
• 10:56
  you know,
• 10:56
  uh,
• 10:57
  supported some of his more controversial theories,
• 11:00
  uh,
• 11:00
  and so he gave an endorsement to Lindell.
• 11:02
  So,
• 11:03
  I want to go through this because I think we have an example of both of them here
• 11:06
  coming up on in tomorrow's races.
• 11:08
  First up is uh South Carolina.
• 11:10
  Trump campaigns with Darlene Graham
• 11:12
  ahead of runoff.
• 11:13
  Say I'm on the ballot one more time.
• 11:15
  This is a real issue for,
• 11:17
  uh,
• 11:18
  for MAGA as a movement.
• 11:20
  If you kind of step outside of the prediction market world for a second.
• 11:23
  And look at,
• 11:24
  does MAGA survive Donald Trump?
• 11:26
  We have seen
• 11:27
  very little evidence that any other candidate can be,
• 11:31
  um,
• 11:31
  can pull it off the way Trump does,
• 11:33
  right?
• 11:34
  I,
• 11:34
  I think.
• 11:35
  Whether you like Trump or you hate Trump,
• 11:36
  I think we could all unite and agree that Trump is
• 11:39
  unique.
• 11:40
  Trump has a unique pull on the American people in some
• 11:42
  ways and a unique push on some people in other ways.
• 11:46
  And
• 11:46
  when Trump comes into a race like this,
• 11:49
  and he is,
• 11:49
  uh,
• 11:50
  you know,
• 11:50
  he's not on the ballot,
• 11:51
  what we've seen with candidates that try to replicate
• 11:54
  his policy,
• 11:55
  uh,
• 11:56
  package,
• 11:56
  and people who try to replicate his style,
• 11:59
  almost
• 12:00
  everybody fails.
• 12:02
  Or underperforms at the very least,
• 12:04
  Donald Trump.
• 12:05
  That doesn't mean that Republicans who are MAGA lose in Republican states,
• 12:09
  but like there hasn't been a lot of overperformance
• 12:12
  for what above expectations.
• 12:14
  Uh,
• 12:14
  war,
• 12:14
  if you're a baseball fan,
• 12:15
  uh,
• 12:16
  wins above replacement.
• 12:17
  Uh,
• 12:17
  there's not a lot of votes above replacement for
• 12:19
  MAGA candidates when Trump isn't on the ballot.
• 12:22
  When Trump is on the ballot.
• 12:24
  The Trump sort of coattails tend to bring a lot of new voters
• 12:27
  to the table.
• 12:28
  Now,
• 12:28
  I have bad news for uh for Donald Trump and,
• 12:31
  and,
• 12:31
  uh,
• 12:31
  anyone who's running under that banner.
• 12:33
  Donald Trump is not going to be on the ballot in 2026.
• 12:35
  In fact,
• 12:36
  frankly,
• 12:36
  uh,
• 12:36
  will never be on the ballot again,
• 12:39
  uh,
• 12:39
  if the Constitution holds,
• 12:41
  and he can only have two
• 12:42
  runs at the or two terms of the presidency.
• 12:46
  All that being said,
• 12:47
  it's basically to say that,
• 12:49
  uh,
• 12:49
  Trump here is trying to bring,
• 12:52
  let's put it this,
• 12:53
  let's be frank about it,
• 12:54
  we've talked about it before,
• 12:55
  this is not a surprise.
• 12:57
  He's trying to pull a nice
• 12:59
  old lady who doesn't really know a lot about
• 13:01
  the job that she's doing across the finish line.
• 13:03
  That doesn't mean that Darlene Graham is,
• 13:05
  uh,
• 13:06
  uh,
• 13:06
  will eventually be a good senator.
• 13:08
  Maybe if she gets this job,
• 13:09
  she will be,
• 13:10
  I don't know.
• 13:11
  Frankly though,
• 13:12
  she's not prepared for this job,
• 13:13
  and I think quite clearly she doesn't,
• 13:15
  I mean,
• 13:15
  she herself says
• 13:17
  she's not very informed
• 13:19
  about foreign policy.
• 13:22
  That's not me saying that,
• 13:23
  that's her saying that on the debate stage.
• 13:25
  If you missed a segment I did last week called Instaell,
• 13:28
  uh,
• 13:29
  I had a position on Darlene Graham because every piece of this tells me,
• 13:33
  every,
• 13:34
  every on paper measure here tells me she's gonna win this,
• 13:37
  and frankly,
• 13:38
  I think she probably will.
• 13:42
  I'm just not willing to risk it anymore after this.
• 13:44
  After watching this play out and watching her on stage,
• 13:47
  I'm no longer
• 13:48
  willing to risk
• 13:50
  that Graham
• 13:51
  will be able to win this primary because if you missed the clip from last week,
• 13:55
  she,
• 13:56
  you know,
• 13:56
  basically said what I just described.
• 13:58
  She was asked about the difference with Taiwan and China and
• 14:01
  how important is Taiwan to our national security,
• 14:04
  and she couldn't come up
• 14:05
  with a,
• 14:06
  and again,
• 14:07
  you don't have to know anything about these issues,
• 14:08
  you just have to come up with a a a a fast,
• 14:10
  quick on your feet.
• 14:11
  Sort of answer to these questions.
• 14:13
  Hey,
• 14:13
  well,
• 14:14
  you know,
• 14:14
  look,
• 14:14
  our,
• 14:14
  our allies are very important and we need to make sure that we're,
• 14:17
  we protect them and we also push back against our,
• 14:20
  uh,
• 14:20
  uh,
• 14:21
  adversaries
• 14:22
  with a peace through strength strategy.
• 14:23
  And I don't want to get into the specifics because I'm not a sad,
• 14:25
  uh,
• 14:25
  you know,
• 14:26
  I'm not,
• 14:26
  uh,
• 14:27
  uh,
• 14:27
  uh,
• 14:27
  you know,
• 14:27
  I'm not,
• 14:28
  uh,
• 14:28
  in,
• 14:28
  you know,
• 14:29
  uh,
• 14:29
  trying to get away ahead of our negotiations in these matters.
• 14:32
  And I think it's really important,
• 14:33
  blah,
• 14:33
  blah,
• 14:34
  blah,
• 14:34
  whatever.
• 14:36
  What you don't say is,
• 14:37
  uh.
• 14:39
  You know,
• 14:40
  you can't,
• 14:41
  I remind him,
• 14:42
  you can't pull a Jeffy in that situation
• 14:44
  and just say 18.
• 14:45
  That's not a thing that you can do.
• 14:47
  You need to have some sort of answer.
• 14:49
  And I think,
• 14:49
  frankly,
• 14:50
  like,
• 14:50
  look,
• 14:50
  it's
• 14:51
  somewhat admirable that she's being honest about that,
• 14:54
  but you just can't do that.
• 14:55
  And I'm,
• 14:56
  I,
• 14:56
  you know,
• 14:56
  you,
• 14:56
  you get a little scared even about the general election
• 14:58
  because she's gonna have to probably do a general election,
• 15:00
  uh,
• 15:01
  uh,
• 15:01
  debate,
• 15:02
  and if she's not more prepared for that one,
• 15:04
  who knows?
• 15:05
  What I would say about this is,
• 15:07
  If I were in South Carolina,
• 15:08
  and this has actually happened to me not being in South Carolina,
• 15:10
  but if I were in South Carolina,
• 15:11
  and and there's anyone talking about these races,
• 15:13
  and I was in group texts,
• 15:14
  and I was in group chats,
• 15:15
  and I was in,
• 15:15
  you know,
• 15:16
  I'm hanging around having a barbecue,
• 15:17
  uh,
• 15:17
  as,
• 15:18
  you know,
• 15:18
  kids are going back to school,
• 15:20
  all the dads are gathering around,
• 15:21
  we're hanging out by the grill,
• 15:23
  having a having a beer,
• 15:24
  whatever.
• 15:25
  That answer is what's gonna stand out.
• 15:28
  That is gonna be the thing we're all talking about.
• 15:30
  What was that?
• 15:31
  What happened?
• 15:32
  Is she,
• 15:32
  can she even do this job?
• 15:34
  Are we handing this job to this woman
• 15:36
  just because of her last name?
• 15:39
  And of course the answer to that is yes,
• 15:41
  if she wins,
• 15:42
  right?
• 15:43
  Quite obviously,
• 15:44
  I mean she wasn't even running.
• 15:45
  If she wanted to be this job,
• 15:47
  she could have run for it.
• 15:48
  She wasn't running,
• 15:49
  she wasn't planning on running,
• 15:50
  this was not going to be her life.
• 15:52
  She's stepping in
• 15:53
  because her her brother passed away.
• 15:55
  It's a difficult situation for her.
• 15:57
  She's trying to continue this legacy.
• 15:58
  I don't have any bad feelings toward her,
• 16:01
  but I am concerned about whether she would win this race.
• 16:03
  So what I did in this race,
• 16:05
  I,
• 16:05
  I outlined it the other day,
• 16:06
  was I sold my position on both
• 16:09
  a Norman no
• 16:11
  and a Graham yes.
• 16:13
  I took the profit off the table,
• 16:14
  which is like 22%,
• 16:16
  put it in the pocket,
• 16:17
  moving on with my life.
• 16:19
  Now,
• 16:19
  I will
• 16:20
  tomorrow during our live coverage of the votes coming out.
• 16:24
  In,
• 16:25
  um,
• 16:25
  South Carolina and Oklahoma,
• 16:27
  I will,
• 16:28
  uh,
• 16:28
  look for opportunities there.
• 16:30
  If I see,
• 16:31
  you know,
• 16:31
  there is a real case for Graham to win this,
• 16:34
  and it's got nothing to do with what she said on stage.
• 16:36
  She's got the Trump endorsement.
• 16:38
  She's got the Trump endorsement version one,
• 16:40
  which is Trump with a little elbow grease behind it.
• 16:42
  Trump is really pushing for Graham to win.
• 16:44
  She,
• 16:44
  he's campaigning with her.
• 16:45
  He's doing another virtual campaign event with her.
• 16:49
  He is doing everything he can to push her over the line.
• 16:51
  Why?
• 16:52
  He doesn't like Norman.
• 16:54
  Norman,
• 16:54
  he endorsed Nikki Haley
• 16:57
  during the presidential campaign.
• 16:58
  Trump doesn't forget things like that.
• 17:00
  Haley endorsed Norman.
• 17:01
  Uh,
• 17:02
  he doesn't like he doesn't like Haley.
• 17:03
  He doesn't like that version of,
• 17:05
  of what Republicans are.
• 17:07
  Uh,
• 17:07
  he just doesn't want it,
• 17:08
  and he's trying really hard to push Graham across the finish line here.
• 17:12
  So that aligns with it.
• 17:13
  If you look at the map,
• 17:14
  and I've done some deep diving on this,
• 17:16
  on the map of the votes.
• 17:18
  Where Russell,
• 17:19
  Russell Frye was the 3rd candidate,
• 17:22
  Russell Frye has come in.
• 17:23
  He can't finish in 3rd place in the 1st round
• 17:25
  with like 20% of the vote.
• 17:26
  He has come out at Trump's,
• 17:28
  again,
• 17:28
  another Trump elbow grease moment at Trump's demand,
• 17:32
  basically,
• 17:33
  ask nicely,
• 17:34
  whatever it was.
• 17:35
  He has come out and endorsed
• 17:37
  Graham.
• 17:39
  If you look at the counties that Frye won,
• 17:42
  Graham is,
• 17:43
  uh,
• 17:43
  uh,
• 17:44
  uh,
• 17:44
  Graham did better than Norman in those counties.
• 17:46
  So you're thinking about the Fry votes,
• 17:48
  if you think they typically will go to Graham,
• 17:52
  um,
• 17:52
  this is,
• 17:53
  it was not a,
• 17:53
  it was a situation where these counties where all these Fry votes were,
• 17:57
  they didn't like Norman at all the first time.
• 17:59
  So it would make perfect sense for all those votes
• 18:02
  to go to Graham.
• 18:03
  Um,
• 18:04
  you,
• 18:04
  you look across,
• 18:05
  now there's a kind of a similar situation that went on with Sanford,
• 18:09
  who finished 4th for Norman.
• 18:10
  Sanford endorsed Norman,
• 18:12
  uh,
• 18:12
  kind of,
• 18:13
  you know,
• 18:13
  he's been an anti-Trump figure at times in his career.
• 18:16
  So
• 18:17
  there's a little bit of that pushing the other way as well.
• 18:20
  Smaller chunk in smaller counties,
• 18:22
  uh,
• 18:23
  smaller vote totals,
• 18:24
  but there is a little bit of a pushback against that narrative.
• 18:26
  All that being said,
• 18:28
  Everything on paper says Darlene Graham should win this race.
• 18:32
  And I,
• 18:33
  and I,
• 18:33
  if you are the type of person who's just gonna look at these numbers as,
• 18:36
  you know,
• 18:36
  kind of cold hard analysis and say,
• 18:38
  look,
• 18:38
  uh,
• 18:38
  this is what I think's gonna happen.
• 18:39
  I have no problem with you doing that.
• 18:41
  I have no problem with you jumping in and saying,
• 18:43
  look,
• 18:43
  I think Graham's gonna win.
• 18:44
  I worry about it,
• 18:45
  where the value is.
• 18:46
  Do we have the market up if we could pull that market.
• 18:49
  That would be great.
• 18:49
  This is what it looks like right now,
• 18:51
  and keep this full screen for a minute.
• 18:53
  Uh,
• 18:53
  Darlene Graham at 65% and Ralph Norman at 35%.
• 18:57
  I would consider
• 18:59
  Graham to be the favorite here.
• 19:01
  Um,
• 19:01
  I had,
• 19:02
  if you look back to where it was in the 80s,
• 19:04
  um,
• 19:04
  I don't remember the day I sold,
• 19:06
  but I would say it was in the 70s when I sold mid 70s.
• 19:09
  It's now down about 10 points from there.
• 19:10
  That's what that
• 19:11
  gaffe caused it.
• 19:13
  It's now back
• 19:14
  closer to where I would say.
• 19:16
  You know,
• 19:17
  I would be comfortable.
• 19:18
  I think a fifty-fifty race,
• 19:19
  if it was a fifty-fifty race right now,
• 19:21
  I would probably jump in on the Graham side.
• 19:24
  That being said,
• 19:25
  the value is probably on the Norman side right now because you're looking at a 3,
• 19:29
  you know,
• 19:29
  you're looking at,
• 19:30
  you know,
• 19:31
  uh,
• 19:31
  a 33% investment
• 19:33
  paying you 66%.
• 19:35
  It's 200% return,
• 19:36
  right?
• 19:36
  Like that,
• 19:37
  like,
• 19:38
  I think he's probably closer,
• 19:40
  uh,
• 19:40
  to 45 or 50% chance to win this.
• 19:42
  All that being said,
• 19:44
  I just don't like it anymore.
• 19:46
  I don't like the uncertainty.
• 19:48
  I,
• 19:48
  there hasn't been any great,
• 19:50
  uh,
• 19:50
  polling that would change my mind on this,
• 19:52
  you know,
• 19:53
  Graham
• 19:54
  should
• 19:54
  win
• 19:55
  this
• 19:56
  race.
• 19:56
  Everything has been handed to her to win this race.
• 20:01
  She just,
• 20:01
  I said this at the time,
• 20:02
  the only thing that will prevent her winning this race
• 20:05
  is her with a massive screw up in like a debate,
• 20:08
  and that's what we got.
• 20:09
  So I'm out of it right now.
• 20:10
  I'll watch the votes come in.
• 20:12
  If I see indications from early counties
• 20:14
  that say,
• 20:14
  wait a minute,
• 20:15
  Graham is overperforming or Norman is overperforming,
• 20:18
  I will
• 20:18
  jump into those markets as they uh come out,
• 20:21
  and I invite you
• 20:22
  uh to come with me on that road.
• 20:24
  Uh,
• 20:24
  we will be doing that,
• 20:25
  by the way,
• 20:25
  on,
• 20:26
  uh,
• 20:27
  on the live stream on YouTube.
• 20:29
  Uh,
• 20:29
  and a bunch of other places,
• 20:30
  uh,
• 20:30
  probably on social media chat platform of choice,
• 20:32
  but the safest place to always find it is predictableShow.com as well.
• 20:35
  We'll always have,
• 20:36
  uh,
• 20:36
  links to whatever you need and,
• 20:37
  uh,
• 20:37
  do the live streaming there
• 20:39
  too.
• 20:39
  And there will be,
• 20:40
  by the way,
• 20:40
  a subscriber only live chat as well,
• 20:43
  uh,
• 20:43
  after we're done there to kind of take you through
• 20:45
  the later results and watch all these things play out.
• 20:48
  There's,
• 20:48
  uh,
• 20:48
  a lot of stuff that is interesting.
• 20:50
  There's only 3
• 20:51
  main races here.
• 20:52
  Let me get to the other 2 here,
• 20:54
  uh,
• 20:54
  and we'll walk you through that.
• 20:55
  Uh,
• 20:55
  but remember to join us at predictableshow.com.
• 20:58
  I will also remind you we have a predictable 101 to kind of walk you through
• 21:01
  what do prediction markets mean,
• 21:03
  how do they work,
• 21:03
  how can you buy,
• 21:04
  how can you sell if you wanna get involved in this.
• 21:06
  I would,
• 21:06
  I would,
• 21:07
  I would say start small.
• 21:08
  If you wanna put in 10 bucks and just play a little bit on these markets,
• 21:11
  uh,
• 21:11
  tomorrow.
• 21:12
  It's a great way to get started as we get prepared for November.
• 21:14
  PredictableShow.com we'll get you a lot farther with that.
• 21:17
  We have that free resource.
• 21:17
  If you put your email in
• 21:19
  at predictableShow.com,
• 21:20
  we'll email it to you right away.
• 21:22
  Uh,
• 21:22
  to get you all started up.
• 21:23
  It's nice and easy,
• 21:24
  uh,
• 21:24
  and it's a nice,
• 21:25
  uh,
• 21:25
  nice,
• 21:25
  uh,
• 21:26
  outline of what you need to do,
• 21:28
  uh,
• 21:28
  as far as that goes.
• 21:29
  OK,
• 21:29
  let's go over to Oklahoma here.
• 21:30
  They close an hour later,
• 21:31
  so we'll have a good hour of like looking at South Carolina
• 21:33
  results.
• 21:34
  I can't remember if those were delayed a little bit.
• 21:35
  I'll have to go back and look at my notes on that,
• 21:37
  but,
• 21:37
  uh,
• 21:38
  we'll look at those results,
• 21:38
  come in,
• 21:39
  then we'll move over to Oklahoma as well as that plays out.
• 21:41
  Polls close at 7:00 p.m. Central,
• 21:42
  8:00 p.m. Eastern.
• 21:44
  The uh bitter governor
• 21:46
  race is uh testing
• 21:48
  Trump's endorsement power
• 21:50
  here in this race.
• 21:51
  This is uh Drummond and Maisy.
• 21:53
  So this is the same sort of thing
• 21:55
  and an interesting
• 21:56
  one.
• 21:58
  I would put this in the second category of Trump endorsement,
• 22:01
  which is a,
• 22:02
  uh,
• 22:03
  a lighter push by Trump.
• 22:05
  Trump also doesn't really like Drummond,
• 22:07
  the opponent of Mike Maizey.
• 22:08
  He,
• 22:09
  he,
• 22:09
  uh,
• 22:09
  he endorsed Maisy.
• 22:11
  Um,
• 22:12
  this all goes back to.
• 22:15
  Again,
• 22:15
  this stuff's weird,
• 22:16
  but it goes back to an aluminum smelting plant.
• 22:21
  Did you,
• 22:21
  uh,
• 22:22
  I,
• 22:22
  I don't wanna,
• 22:22
  you know,
• 22:23
  sometimes I feel like I'm doing too much clickbait.
• 22:24
  Am I doing too much clickbait if we put aluminum
• 22:26
  smelting in the headline of the YouTube video today?
• 22:28
  I don't know.
• 22:29
  Maybe everyone's gonna want to,
• 22:30
  oh,
• 22:30
  he's talking aluminum smelting again.
• 22:32
  So there's aluminum smelting plant that's going,
• 22:34
  they want to put up in Oklahoma.
• 22:36
  It will be the largest one in the nation.
• 22:37
  Trump very much,
• 22:37
  you know,
• 22:38
  he's pro-business,
• 22:39
  pro industry,
• 22:40
  wants to put it up,
• 22:41
  you know,
• 22:41
  there's some local environmental concerns.
• 22:43
  It's very much echoes sort of what we're seeing with the data centers,
• 22:47
  um,
• 22:48
  and that debate around the country,
• 22:50
  right?
• 22:50
  Uh,
• 22:51
  AI is helping a lot of communities grow these data centers
• 22:54
  that are not just AI but YouTube and everything else,
• 22:56
  and everything that you're doing on your phone,
• 22:58
  some of that,
• 22:58
  it's coming from a data center somewhere,
• 23:00
  uh,
• 23:01
  but,
• 23:01
  you know,
• 23:01
  some people don't want them growing,
• 23:03
  growing large in their communities,
• 23:05
  and there are complaints.
• 23:06
  You know,
• 23:07
  some of them,
• 23:07
  there have been some valid complaints on this,
• 23:10
  others,
• 23:10
  I think,
• 23:11
  pretty frankly
• 23:13
  overblown.
• 23:14
  Whatever,
• 23:14
  whatever.
• 23:15
  I'm not getting into that debate at this point.
• 23:16
  There's no,
• 23:17
  there's no real reason to,
• 23:18
  but it is one of those things where it is a dividing issue.
• 23:22
  This was,
• 23:22
  it's a smaller scale for the aluminum smelting plant,
• 23:25
  but Drummond actually sued to stop the plant.
• 23:28
  Uh,
• 23:28
  my understanding is Maisy actually was kind of against it
• 23:31
  initially and now it's kind of come along to Trump's
• 23:33
  point of view.
• 23:34
  Trump
• 23:35
  endorsed him early.
• 23:36
  Um,
• 23:37
  do I have,
• 23:38
  I don't think I have the results up in front of me,
• 23:40
  but,
• 23:40
  um,
• 23:41
  let me pull that up if I can.
• 23:42
  Let's see,
• 23:43
  do I have that in front of me?
• 23:46
  Yeah,
• 23:47
  here we go.
• 23:47
  So,
• 23:47
  the first round of this race was
• 23:50
  Drummond actually won
• 23:52
  with 26.2% of the vote.
• 23:54
  Maisie came in second at 26% of the vote,
• 23:56
  very,
• 23:56
  very close at the top.
• 23:58
  Then there were three other candidates that had
• 23:59
  significant amounts of votes Keating with 18,
• 24:01
  Merrick with 14,
• 24:03
  McCaul with 11.
• 24:04
  I can remember now looking at these names.
• 24:06
  I had no positions on a lot of those guys that finished 3,
• 24:08
  4th,
• 24:08
  and fifth.
• 24:09
  Um,
• 24:10
  right now,
• 24:11
  I think the only position I have is Drummond,
• 24:13
  and it's pretty small,
• 24:14
  or excuse me,
• 24:14
  Maisie,
• 24:16
  to be clear,
• 24:16
  Maisie,
• 24:17
  uh,
• 24:17
  and it's relatively small.
• 24:19
  Prediction markets see Maisy as the favorite.
• 24:21
  Do we have that market,
• 24:22
  pulled up by any chance?
• 24:23
  Yeah,
• 24:23
  here we go.
• 24:24
  This is the,
• 24:25
  uh,
• 24:25
  if you see here.
• 24:26
  Um,
• 24:27
  Mike Maizey,
• 24:28
  you see really the moment,
• 24:30
  uh,
• 24:30
  if you look at
• 24:32
  about June 2026,
• 24:33
  it was a bit of a surprise endorsement.
• 24:34
  No one really,
• 24:35
  there wasn't a lot you could see,
• 24:37
  they didn't see that coming,
• 24:38
  as Maisy was not the favorite at all at this point.
• 24:40
  He was at about 20% before that endorsement rolled in.
• 24:43
  It did roll in and then he shot up to about
• 24:45
  75% and frankly has been about the 75% to 25% favorite
• 24:49
  this entire time.
• 24:50
  There's been almost no polling.
• 24:52
  In this race,
• 24:53
  um,
• 24:53
  uh,
• 24:55
  really either,
• 24:55
  uh,
• 24:56
  you know,
• 24:56
  it shows that it's pretty close.
• 24:58
  Uh,
• 24:58
  see if there's a couple,
• 24:59
  uh,
• 25:00
  anything
• 25:01
  notable really when it comes to polling.
• 25:02
  There's just not that much of it.
• 25:04
  Um,
• 25:05
  so,
• 25:06
  we're kind of going a little blind here.
• 25:07
  I,
• 25:08
  I think
• 25:09
  Maisy has enough.
• 25:10
  I am not,
• 25:11
  what I'm doing with this right now is holding my position on,
• 25:13
  on Mike Maizey and gonna watch the results come in.
• 25:16
  I'm not buying anything else.
• 25:18
  Uh,
• 25:18
  you know,
• 25:18
  I watched some of the debate footage and,
• 25:20
  and went back and forth on this,
• 25:22
  uh,
• 25:22
  race a while ago.
• 25:23
  I wasn't particularly
• 25:24
  impressed by Drummond as a candidate.
• 25:27
  Sometimes if you have a really strong candidate who hasn't been endorsed,
• 25:30
  there's a chance that they kind of
• 25:32
  make an unexpected push.
• 25:33
  I,
• 25:33
  I don't know that I expect this year.
• 25:35
  I do expect Maisie to win,
• 25:36
  but I'm not
• 25:37
  locked into this and seeing a
• 25:39
  massive opportunity.
• 25:41
  I think 80/20 is about where I'd put this race right now.
• 25:45
  Um,
• 25:45
  maybe even,
• 25:46
  honestly,
• 25:47
  maybe Maisy's a little overpriced right now.
• 25:50
  It might be a 70/30 race,
• 25:52
  so
• 25:53
  I don't have massive opportunity for either of these two
• 25:56
  races to jump in unless you have a strong feeling.
• 25:58
  I don't have one,
• 25:59
  and I,
• 25:59
  you know,
• 26:00
  this is one of the things that's different maybe
• 26:01
  about this show than other shows that you watch or
• 26:03
  if you watch any other prediction market content,
• 26:05
  maybe this is the wrong thing to do.
• 26:06
  I don't know.
• 26:07
  I'm making this up as I go along.
• 26:08
  We're,
• 26:08
  we're,
• 26:09
  we're one of the first,
• 26:10
  uh,
• 26:10
  shows that
• 26:11
  is doing this type of content.
• 26:13
  But what I will say is,
• 26:14
  when I don't have a strong position,
• 26:16
  I'm not gonna tell you
• 26:17
  that I do
• 26:19
  for entertainment purposes.
• 26:21
  I'd rather have you win,
• 26:23
  I'd rather have you make money,
• 26:24
  I'd rather have you be profitable,
• 26:25
  so that you want to stick around the prediction marketplace for a
• 26:27
  long time and don't feel like you're getting burned by it.
• 26:29
  Um,
• 26:30
  I,
• 26:30
  I feel like the,
• 26:30
  the exchanges sort of feel the same way about that.
• 26:33
  There's no like people are like,
• 26:34
  oh,
• 26:34
  they wanna get in there and get your money.
• 26:35
  First of all,
• 26:36
  they're not getting your money.
• 26:37
  They're,
• 26:37
  they're,
• 26:38
  you're,
• 26:38
  when you lose a prediction market position,
• 26:40
  that's not going to Kelsey,
• 26:41
  it's not going to polymarket,
• 26:42
  it's not going to predict it.
• 26:44
  It's,
• 26:44
  it's going to other people
• 26:46
  who
• 26:47
  had a smarter opinion on you on that particular evening.
• 26:50
  You know,
• 26:50
  that's just the way it works.
• 26:52
  They're making money off of transaction fees.
• 26:54
  For them,
• 26:55
  it's much better for you to be there for a long period of time,
• 26:58
  making many,
• 26:58
  many trades over many,
• 26:59
  many years.
• 27:00
  You just going in there and getting toasted and roasted is not going to help anybody.
• 27:03
  And I don't want that for you,
• 27:05
  and,
• 27:05
  and I don't think they want it for you either,
• 27:06
  frankly.
• 27:07
  So,
• 27:08
  that's kind of where I am on this.
• 27:11
  I,
• 27:11
  I,
• 27:11
  you know,
• 27:11
  I could give you a million takes and,
• 27:15
  and manufacture them,
• 27:15
  but I'm not gonna do that.
• 27:16
  I'm gonna tell you,
• 27:17
  I'm gonna be there tomorrow night.
• 27:18
  I'm gonna be watching it come in.
• 27:19
  There's a very good chance we watch this,
• 27:21
  these results come in and they say,
• 27:22
  wait a minute,
• 27:23
  this candidate is overperforming.
• 27:24
  I'm gonna start moving money that way.
• 27:26
  That's how we do that on the live stream
• 27:27
  and I ask you to join us at predictableShow.com.
• 27:30
  I think you'll enjoy it.
• 27:30
  It's,
• 27:31
  it's also fun,
• 27:32
  frankly,
• 27:32
  it's kinda like
• 27:33
  almost watching like a live event and you're just in the middle of
• 27:35
  like trading it and going up and down and up and down.
• 27:36
  OK,
• 27:37
  I see value.
• 27:38
  Here,
• 27:38
  I see it no longer there.
• 27:40
  What another thing that you could do quickly before I go,
• 27:42
  I'm already too long on this,
• 27:43
  is you can go into these margin markets and just take out the outliers.
• 27:47
  If you think,
• 27:47
  OK,
• 27:48
  well,
• 27:48
  neither one of these candidates is gonna win by 30 points,
• 27:50
  if that's your belief,
• 27:51
  you can go in there and just knock off,
• 27:53
  get a couple of no positions going on sort of those outliers,
• 27:56
  and then,
• 27:57
  uh,
• 27:57
  you have a good chance of just,
• 27:58
  you know,
• 27:59
  cashing in with a little bit of profit if you just wanted to look at
• 28:01
  it that way or say that a certain candidate won't go over a certain percentage.
• 28:05
  The margin markets are interesting in runoffs
• 28:07
  because there's only 2 candidates.
• 28:09
  So
• 28:10
  it's not like one of these things where,
• 28:11
  well,
• 28:12
  it could go to a 3rd candidate or it could go to a
• 28:13
  write-in or it could go to some other 4th or 5th candidate.
• 28:17
  It's going one way or the other,
• 28:18
  each vote.
• 28:19
  So
• 28:20
  it's hard for those,
• 28:21
  you know,
• 28:22
  each vote is essentially moving
• 28:23
  that margin.
• 28:25
  As much as 2 votes would normally move it.
• 28:27
  It's because one vote goes to one person,
• 28:29
  it's not going to the other.
• 28:30
  So if you go
• 28:31
  5% of the vote goes,
• 28:33
  let's say,
• 28:34
  to,
• 28:34
  uh,
• 28:34
  to Graham,
• 28:36
  and that means 5% of the vote isn't going to,
• 28:38
  uh,
• 28:39
  so you know,
• 28:40
  5% of the vote can go from,
• 28:41
  it makes it a 55%,
• 28:42
  45%,
• 28:42
  even though only 5% of the vote has moved,
• 28:44
  right?
• 28:45
  Um,
• 28:45
  that's kind of the way to think of that.
• 28:47
  So those margins can get pretty big in those one on one,
• 28:49
  values.
• 28:50
  Sometimes,
• 28:50
  sometimes I'll just play it honestly,
• 28:52
  taking out the very lowest margins.
• 28:54
  Because it's super hard to land in those
• 28:56
  low margins cause you're only talking about,
• 28:58
  you're talking about the tightest of
• 29:00
  uh votes of like 52-48,
• 29:02
  right?
• 29:02
  Or 51-49.
• 29:04
  Normally,
• 29:04
  that's not the way these things turn out,
• 29:05
  but it does happen.
• 29:06
  OK.
• 29:07
  Way too long.
• 29:08
  Gotta take a break.
• 29:08
  We have some interesting stuff on polling.
• 29:10
  We have some other stuff on sports actually that,
• 29:12
  that happened this weekend.
• 29:13
  I wanna look back at a couple of positions
• 29:14
  I've been talking to you
• 29:15
  about for a while there.
• 29:17
  Uh,
• 29:17
  we'll do all that here coming up in just a second.
• 29:34
  So there's a big story that uh was breaking over the past couple of weeks.
• 29:38
  We've talked about it a little bit.
• 29:40
  Um we were curious as to how this would all play out,
• 29:44
  but a shocking fake poll firm puts industry under the microscope.
• 29:49
  Unfortunately,
• 29:51
  not surprising is the,
• 29:52
  uh,
• 29:52
  is the headline,
• 29:53
  and this goes to a uh uh a group called Median Strategies,
• 29:57
  and it was a poll that came out,
• 29:59
  actually went to,
• 30:00
  I think there's 3 of them.
• 30:00
  I think there's one in California,
• 30:01
  one in Nevada.
• 30:03
  The one that most people talked about though was in Wisconsin,
• 30:06
  uh,
• 30:06
  where these polls came out,
• 30:07
  they showed these results,
• 30:09
  uh,
• 30:09
  you know,
• 30:11
  for 3 of these races,
• 30:13
  and,
• 30:13
  uh,
• 30:14
  they were talked about in the media,
• 30:15
  they were talked about by these campaigns,
• 30:18
  and then
• 30:19
  the whole thing turned out to be fake.
• 30:21
  Basically,
• 30:22
  this was not even a polling firm.
• 30:24
  It was a fake firm run by a
• 30:28
  Hilariously,
• 30:29
  a 21 year old
• 30:31
  recent college graduate.
• 30:33
  Uh,
• 30:33
  yes,
• 30:34
  uh,
• 30:35
  website behind widely shared fake election polls run by 21-year-old
• 30:38
  Raheel Prakash
• 30:40
  told The Guardian,
• 30:41
  I wanted to see if fake polls could penetrate the ecosystem that easily.
• 30:45
  Um,
• 30:46
  he,
• 30:46
  so
• 30:47
  he creates this fake website that looks pretty good.
• 30:50
  Uh,
• 30:50
  puts out a poll,
• 30:51
  uh,
• 30:52
  and it is cited by Karen Bass in the LA mayoral race.
• 30:55
  Uh,
• 30:55
  it's,
• 30:56
  uh,
• 30:56
  talked about online a little bit in Wisconsin,
• 30:59
  shows,
• 31:00
  uh,
• 31:00
  Francesca Hong up by 20 points.
• 31:02
  This is kind of the main way this has been,
• 31:05
  uh,
• 31:05
  talked about.
• 31:06
  Uh,
• 31:06
  this guy says,
• 31:07
  I did I expect it to perhaps expedite expedite in the way that it did?
• 31:11
  Most definitely not.
• 31:12
  I did not expect the California political press to pick up on it on their own.
• 31:16
  I'll apologize straight out to the campaigns of Bass and Rahman and Hong for this.
• 31:23
  He said I was.
• 31:25
  I was inspired,
• 31:26
  uh,
• 31:27
  he said that in an interview,
• 31:28
  um,
• 31:28
  uh,
• 31:29
  he said he was motivated to start the fake polling project
• 31:31
  after a significant polling miss in the Michigan Senate primary where
• 31:34
  polls had showed El Sayed with a heavy lead
• 31:37
  over his opponent Haley Stevens,
• 31:39
  uh,
• 31:39
  and said El Sayed wound up winning
• 31:41
  by a much smaller margin.
• 31:43
  Uh,
• 31:44
  this is what inspired me to test my theory.
• 31:45
  I was a bit shocked
• 31:46
  perhaps at how fast this information can spread.
• 31:49
  So.
• 31:51
  Again,
• 31:51
  this was all,
• 31:52
  this is so bad.
• 31:53
  It was all set up within 1 week.
• 31:55
  I mean,
• 31:55
  that was only 1 week if I remember right,
• 31:56
  maybe it was 2,
• 31:57
  but I think it was only 1 week between Michigan and uh and
• 32:00
  Wisconsin.
• 32:02
  And there's a,
• 32:03
  but you know,
• 32:04
  as,
• 32:04
  as is typical in these conversations,
• 32:07
  there's so much of actual context that's that's left out of it.
• 32:11
  The New York Times has a big story on this called
• 32:13
  Why polling chaos could create big problems for American Politics,
• 32:17
  bad polls,
• 32:17
  misleading betting odds,
• 32:19
  surveys meant to shape narratives.
• 32:21
  Ahead of midterms of 2028,
• 32:23
  there's suddenly serious confusion about
• 32:25
  candidate strength and voter sentiment.
• 32:28
  Um,
• 32:28
  you know,
• 32:29
  this goes to Mandela Barnes.
• 32:30
  Mandela Barnes dropped out of the race.
• 32:31
  He was one of the lead candidates in the,
• 32:33
  uh,
• 32:33
  Wisconsin race.
• 32:34
  Uh,
• 32:35
  he said when he dropped out,
• 32:37
  it has become very clear who our nominee is going to be,
• 32:39
  meaning Francesca Hong,
• 32:40
  and then Hong lost.
• 32:42
  So the point is,
• 32:42
  hey,
• 32:43
  he got talked out of even staying in the race by these bad polls.
• 32:46
  Importantly,
• 32:47
  this fake polling place had nothing to do with that.
• 32:49
  These are other polling places that were real,
• 32:51
  that just missed.
• 32:52
  And that's one of the things I think is
• 32:53
  totally lost in the fake polling place conversation here.
• 32:58
  He asked,
• 32:58
  he,
• 32:58
  he released a poll that said,
• 33:00
  uh,
• 33:00
  you know,
• 33:01
  um,
• 33:01
  Wisconsin was gonna go to Hong by 20 points.
• 33:04
  Number one,
• 33:05
  almost at least every place that I check that I find reputable when it comes to polls,
• 33:10
  none of them included that poll in their polling averages.
• 33:13
  The New York Times didn't do it,
• 33:15
  uh,
• 33:15
  RealClearPolitics didn't do it,
• 33:17
  um,
• 33:18
  you know,
• 33:18
  all the other uh decision desks didn't do it.
• 33:21
  Because,
• 33:22
  quite obviously,
• 33:23
  frankly,
• 33:24
  if you
• 33:24
  look at this stuff,
• 33:26
  you have to hit certain um transparency standards to be included in these polls.
• 33:31
  Basically,
• 33:31
  what you're supposed to do
• 33:33
  is give everybody your full attention,
• 33:36
  your full,
• 33:36
  uh your full methodology.
• 33:39
  Uh,
• 33:39
  you're supposed to bring attention to how you do the polls,
• 33:41
  you're supposed to bring attention to how,
• 33:43
  uh,
• 33:43
  your survey is conducted.
• 33:45
  And you're supposed to let everyone see how everything works.
• 33:48
  Well,
• 33:49
  some of these pollsters,
• 33:49
  and we,
• 33:50
  we cited another fake one with James Fishback,
• 33:52
  are just kinda like,
• 33:54
  you know,
• 33:54
  they're paid for by the campaigns,
• 33:56
  and they're people basically just trying to manipulate the news,
• 34:00
  right?
• 34:01
  I got news for you.
• 34:02
  That's not new.
• 34:04
  We can all complain about pollsters being fake,
• 34:06
  but the truth is,
• 34:07
  campaigns have been lying to us forever,
• 34:10
  and they've been paying pollsters forever
• 34:13
  to give results favorable to them.
• 34:15
  Now sometimes the way they do that
• 34:17
  is to just get completely
• 34:18
  manufactured results.
• 34:20
  Other times what they do is they they take 5
• 34:22
  different polls and take and release only the best one.
• 34:26
  Uh,
• 34:26
  but those are polls that are associated with campaigns,
• 34:30
  and frankly,
• 34:31
  uh,
• 34:31
  I
• 34:33
  discount them quite a bit
• 34:34
  when I look at this.
• 34:35
  You have to be able to put,
• 34:37
  uh,
• 34:37
  your noggin into this a little bit and understand that some pollsters are good,
• 34:40
  some pollsters are not.
• 34:41
  That doesn't mean they're all right.
• 34:42
  And that's the another thing that's about this Wisconsin race.
• 34:44
  There are 5 other polls
• 34:47
  that said the same thing.
• 34:48
  This guy came out a week before,
• 34:50
  created a website,
• 34:52
  plopped it out there and said,
• 34:53
  hey,
• 34:53
  uh,
• 34:54
  she's up by 20.
• 34:55
  Well,
• 34:55
  I mean,
• 34:55
  I honestly,
• 34:56
  uh,
• 34:57
  I don't,
• 34:57
  I don't want to be critical of his,
• 34:58
  his social experiment effort here,
• 35:00
  but if you wanted to do that,
• 35:01
  what you should have done is make the race look a lot closer.
• 35:04
  All he did was release a poll that was
• 35:06
  right within what every other pollster was saying.
• 35:08
  I mean,
• 35:08
  look at at the New York Times,
• 35:09
  and they do,
• 35:10
  um,
• 35:11
  they have some,
• 35:11
  uh,
• 35:12
  what they will do in their polling averages.
• 35:14
  Is to one,
• 35:16
  show you if their,
• 35:17
  if the methodology matches up to their standards.
• 35:19
  The New York Times has standards that they,
• 35:22
  uh,
• 35:22
  as far as transparency goes,
• 35:24
  other sites do as well.
• 35:25
  Um,
• 35:26
  and for example,
• 35:27
  there's a pollster called State Navigate who's doing,
• 35:29
  um,
• 35:30
  work in
• 35:31
  Wisconsin.
• 35:31
  We don't think that they're a fake pollster.
• 35:33
  I,
• 35:33
  I don't think that they are,
• 35:34
  but,
• 35:34
  uh,
• 35:35
  they could be.
• 35:35
  I,
• 35:35
  I don't know.
• 35:36
  Um,
• 35:37
  the pollster does not meet our criteria for select pollsters.
• 35:40
  Now,
• 35:40
  when you look at,
• 35:41
  uh,
• 35:41
  uh,
• 35:42
  uh,
• 35:43
  public policy polling,
• 35:44
  which is another candidate,
• 35:45
  um,
• 35:46
  actually had a sponsor
• 35:48
  by David Crowley,
• 35:50
  the opponent of Hong,
• 35:52
  and still had Hong up by 18 points.
• 35:54
  OK,
• 35:55
  this is a poll
• 35:56
  who who was paid for by her opponent.
• 36:00
  Uh,
• 36:00
  public policy polling is a much,
• 36:01
  is a Democratic pollster,
• 36:03
  but,
• 36:03
  uh,
• 36:03
  uh,
• 36:03
  you know,
• 36:03
  a,
• 36:04
  a respected pollster at some level is supposed to be doing real polls.
• 36:07
  Um,
• 36:08
  Marquette is another big pollster.
• 36:10
  Uh,
• 36:10
  this is a
• 36:11
  high-level pollster,
• 36:12
  had Hong up by 25 points.
• 36:14
  So,
• 36:15
  I mean,
• 36:15
  you look at the last few polls here,
• 36:17
  Hong + 29,
• 36:18
  Hong + 20,
• 36:19
  Hong + 25,
• 36:20
  Hong + 19,
• 36:21
  Hong + 18,
• 36:22
  Hong + 22.
• 36:23
  Aren't you excited that I got through this
• 36:24
  whole segment without making any Hong jokes?
• 36:27
  The point is that these polls all existed.
• 36:29
  He just echoed them with his fake poll.
• 36:31
  It made no difference
• 36:32
  in this race.
• 36:34
  And I got news for you.
• 36:35
  As a person who goes on prediction markets,
• 36:37
  you could say this is gonna be this big thing,
• 36:39
  but this is the entire game,
• 36:41
  right?
• 36:42
  Recognizing when BS polls come out
• 36:45
  are one of the powers of prediction markets.
• 36:49
  When you are someone who watches PredictableShow.com,
• 36:52
  you hear,
• 36:53
  like the Marsha Blackburn one is a good,
• 36:55
  is a good example of this.
• 36:56
  We talked about it at length before this.
• 36:58
  There was a poll that showed that race very close,
• 37:00
  and we dismissed it.
• 37:02
  Cause we didn't think it was up to the standards
• 37:04
  that would actually move this race.
• 37:05
  We didn't think that it was measuring the race,
• 37:07
  it was,
• 37:08
  it was from a partisan client,
• 37:09
  there was no other supporting evidence.
• 37:10
  There was 100 different reasons why it didn't fit.
• 37:13
  And so,
• 37:13
  whether it was an outlier or if it was paid for by somebody else,
• 37:17
  I don't know what the story was,
• 37:19
  but we correctly dismissed it and got a nice win
• 37:22
  with Marsha Blackburn.
• 37:23
  That's the whole,
• 37:24
  that's what prediction markets do.
• 37:26
  It's why you're on,
• 37:27
  you're out there to try to find bad information
• 37:30
  and go against it.
• 37:32
  And when you do that,
• 37:33
  you're doing your little part
• 37:35
  to dissolve those crappy polls.
• 37:38
  You are,
• 37:39
  you are working within a system.
• 37:41
  That while you're making money,
• 37:42
  and that might be your lead goal
• 37:44
  when you're trading,
• 37:45
  but the secondary goal
• 37:47
  is to go in there and say,
• 37:48
  hey,
• 37:48
  wait a minute,
• 37:49
  I'm going the opposite way here,
• 37:51
  and you are pushing that number
• 37:53
  away
• 37:54
  from where that fake poll would normally put it.
• 37:57
  If people believe that,
• 37:58
  you're coming in and you're saying,
• 37:59
  wait a minute,
• 38:00
  I don't buy that,
• 38:00
  let's push it back the other way.
• 38:03
  Prediction markets are a way to to cut through the bad polling,
• 38:07
  not,
• 38:09
  not to,
• 38:09
  uh,
• 38:10
  not a
• 38:11
  a reason to bring up and argue against,
• 38:14
  uh,
• 38:14
  prediction markets.
• 38:16
  Bad polls might move prediction markets a few points in a short period of time.
• 38:20
  Uh,
• 38:20
  if people don't see them,
• 38:21
  but those people will be wrong.
• 38:23
  And if you try to do,
• 38:24
  if you try to be the person who's gonna go on Twitter and look
• 38:26
  for the first post about some new pollster you've never heard of before,
• 38:29
  and try to take advantage of that,
• 38:30
  I got news for you,
• 38:31
  over time you will lose.
• 38:33
  You will lose
• 38:35
  It's not going to work.
• 38:37
  And frankly,
• 38:38
  if you are on the other side of that and you're one of these people and you're like,
• 38:40
  I'm gonna create a fake pollster and I'm gonna
• 38:41
  try to move the markets for my own benefit,
• 38:43
  you will get caught.
• 38:45
  These are regulated financial markets.
• 38:47
  Your,
• 38:47
  your name's there,
• 38:48
  your ID is there,
• 38:49
  your Social Security numbers there with them,
• 38:51
  they hold it,
• 38:52
  they know who you are.
• 38:54
  In most cases,
• 38:55
  there are some cases with overseas uh
• 38:57
  situations where that's a little bit different,
• 38:58
  but the bottom line is
• 39:00
  you're,
• 39:01
  you're not gonna be able to do this anymore.
• 39:02
  We're in a situation where there's too much money in these markets,
• 39:05
  they're too smart,
• 39:06
  and over time they wind up finding their way
• 39:08
  to the right answer.
• 39:09
  We actually have some really new information on that
• 39:11
  that came out over the weekend as well.
• 39:12
  Maybe we'll get to that in a future show about
• 39:14
  how well
• 39:15
  these prediction markets are performing
• 39:17
  over a long period of time.
• 39:19
  The data is actually pretty amazing.
• 39:21
  We'll get to that maybe a little bit later on.
• 39:22
  OK,
• 39:22
  um,
• 39:23
  I have a couple more things I want to get to
• 39:24
  with you.
• 39:25
  Uh,
• 39:26
  positions I talked to,
• 39:27
  uh,
• 39:27
  with you about before
• 39:29
  have resolved,
• 39:30
  and there's new developments,
• 39:31
  uh,
• 39:31
  with them
• 39:32
  as well.
• 39:33
  So I want to talk to you about that,
• 39:34
  what our thinking was,
• 39:35
  and how they worked out.
• 39:36
  We'll do that next.
• 39:52
  Time for another,
• 39:54
  time for another predictable postmortem,
• 39:56
  where we look back at positions that we've had and,
• 39:58
  uh,
• 39:59
  and maybe a few months ago,
• 40:00
  and we haven't talked about it in a while.
• 40:02
  How did that all play out is the way we look at this particular segment.
• 40:05
  And
• 40:06
  we're gonna start with Deshaun Watson and Shaur Sanders.
• 40:09
  Um,
• 40:10
  So,
• 40:11
  why do we care about this?
• 40:12
  Well,
• 40:12
  there was a market several months ago,
• 40:14
  which was based around whether Shado Sanders would be the
• 40:18
  starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns in week one.
• 40:20
  Some interesting stuff here and maybe a way to still play this market,
• 40:23
  it's,
• 40:23
  it's kind of fascinating,
• 40:24
  but.
• 40:24
  Uh,
• 40:25
  let me give it to you here.
• 40:25
  Uh,
• 40:25
  Deshaun Watson calls booing by Browns fans disrespectful and personal,
• 40:30
  but QB feels love on road.
• 40:32
  This is not the way to endure yourself to a fan base.
• 40:35
  Now,
• 40:35
  if you don't know that Deshaun Watson's story was a,
• 40:37
  was a big star in Houston,
• 40:38
  had some issues with,
• 40:39
  you know,
• 40:41
  Look,
• 40:41
  we all have our issues with several dozen masseuses.
• 40:45
  This just is the way the life works.
• 40:47
  Had some issues,
• 40:47
  uh,
• 40:48
  some accusations we won't go into.
• 40:50
  Uh,
• 40:50
  wound up eventually getting traded in a very,
• 40:52
  uh,
• 40:52
  bad trade for the Cleveland Browns,
• 40:54
  uh,
• 40:54
  and then signed to a
• 40:56
  perhaps the worst contract in the history of the NFL
• 40:59
  for $230 million guaranteed dollars.
• 41:02
  Now,
• 41:02
  he has not played,
• 41:03
  uh,
• 41:03
  he got hurt,
• 41:04
  he's not played well,
• 41:05
  it looked like he was gonna get suspended,
• 41:06
  blah,
• 41:06
  blah,
• 41:06
  blah,
• 41:07
  blah,
• 41:07
  blah.
• 41:07
  Anyway,
• 41:08
  with the Browns,
• 41:08
  he's not been good,
• 41:09
  and he's been hurt most of the time.
• 41:11
  Uh,
• 41:12
  he is,
• 41:13
  uh,
• 41:13
  out there competing against Sanders,
• 41:15
  um,
• 41:15
  and
• 41:17
  this.
• 41:18
  What he did this weekend
• 41:20
  was interesting.
• 41:21
  He first of all,
• 41:22
  played pretty poorly,
• 41:23
  and Sanders played pretty well
• 41:25
  as they were having this battle.
• 41:26
  They talked about having,
• 41:27
  hey,
• 41:27
  we're going to announce our winner of this,
• 41:29
  um,
• 41:30
  uh,
• 41:31
  you know,
• 41:31
  quarterback debate today,
• 41:33
  which is,
• 41:33
  which is Monday.
• 41:34
  He said to the reporters,
• 41:36
  Last time I played on this field,
• 41:37
  I tore my Achilles in that same fan base.
• 41:39
  They cheered when I got hurt.
• 41:41
  So what does that have to do with anything about performance?
• 41:43
  When a person gets hurt,
• 41:44
  especially for your own city,
• 41:45
  and they cheer.
• 41:47
  Um,
• 41:47
  he says,
• 41:48
  when I'm in public,
• 41:48
  no one mentions anything,
• 41:49
  but because it's and it's social media,
• 41:51
  players can't respond back,
• 41:52
  and then in the stadium,
• 41:53
  players can't respond back.
• 41:55
  It's a mental battle every day.
• 41:56
  I feel like I get more love in road games than I do in home games.
• 42:00
  So if it's my spot and the coach makes me the starter,
• 42:02
  maybe it's 17 away games then.
• 42:05
  Not a,
• 42:05
  not,
• 42:06
  look,
• 42:06
  you're not
• 42:07
  taking on all the fans is never a good idea.
• 42:09
  They,
• 42:10
  Cleveland fans would rather not,
• 42:12
  they just wanna forget this chapter in their history,
• 42:14
  and there's been a lot of forgettable chapters in Cleveland Browns history,
• 42:17
  so that's,
• 42:17
  that's saying something.
• 42:18
  Um,
• 42:19
  I would just say that
• 42:21
  the thinking here though,
• 42:22
  had nothing to do with knowing that this would happen.
• 42:24
  And so,
• 42:26
  they came out today and they did name,
• 42:28
  uh,
• 42:28
  Deshaun
• 42:29
  Watson,
• 42:30
  the starter for week one.
• 42:32
  this has just been announced here,
• 42:34
  uh,
• 42:34
  earlier today.
• 42:36
  And,
• 42:36
  you know,
• 42:36
  Cleveland fans are pretty annoyed about this because
• 42:40
  it seems that Sanders has probably outplayed
• 42:43
  Watson.
• 42:44
  I guess Cleveland's just thinking we gotta give this game was $230 million.
• 42:47
  Let's give this one more shot.
• 42:48
  I don't know what they're,
• 42:49
  they're thinking is.
• 42:49
  There's also thinking of maybe they want to play poorly,
• 42:52
  uh,
• 42:52
  because there's a couple of good quarterbacks that
• 42:53
  will be available for the draft next year.
• 42:55
  All that being said,
• 42:57
  Is how did we think about this?
• 42:58
  Cause my,
• 42:59
  I didn't know what was gonna happen in this market.
• 43:01
  Uh,
• 43:02
  but when we went back a while ago,
• 43:04
  and I want just to give you the way that we think about this type of market.
• 43:07
  People are like,
• 43:08
  oh gosh,
• 43:08
  sports,
• 43:09
  it's gambling.
• 43:09
  Well,
• 43:09
  I,
• 43:10
  that was,
• 43:10
  this was not a gambling position for me at all.
• 43:12
  This is a value position,
• 43:13
  and let me tell you why.
• 43:14
  Shaur Sanders,
• 43:15
  uh,
• 43:15
  was the starting quarterback at the end of the year.
• 43:17
  He was not overly impressive.
• 43:19
  He made the Pro Bowl,
• 43:20
  uh,
• 43:21
  he was,
• 43:21
  you know,
• 43:21
  played some games OK,
• 43:22
  but I thought
• 43:23
  did not look like a starting quarterback in the NFL,
• 43:25
  frankly,
• 43:26
  over a long period of time.
• 43:28
  Um,
• 43:28
  but he was the favorite,
• 43:29
  and at that point,
• 43:30
  it was even seen as like a 50/50 thing.
• 43:32
  Will it be him?
• 43:33
  Will it be Watson?
• 43:34
  And I think that's where we got it in the market,
• 43:35
  about 50%.
• 43:36
  The reason why I thought it was value is because of the,
• 43:39
  think of the decision tree of what can happen here.
• 43:42
  We're talking months and months ago.
• 43:44
  This is before the draft,
• 43:45
  for example.
• 43:46
  So,
• 43:46
  Shade Sanders could,
• 43:48
  uh,
• 43:48
  have a,
• 43:49
  you know,
• 43:49
  uh,
• 43:49
  an incident where he talks out to the media
• 43:51
  or does something like Watson did and get released,
• 43:54
  and it was on the table.
• 43:56
  They could have drafted another quarterback,
• 43:58
  uh,
• 43:59
  that would be,
• 43:59
  uh,
• 44:00
  a guy that they wanted to play more.
• 44:02
  They could have traded for another,
• 44:04
  uh,
• 44:04
  veteran presence to come in and start
• 44:06
  in this situation.
• 44:08
  They could have,
• 44:08
  uh,
• 44:09
  picked up as a free agent,
• 44:11
  a veteran or somebody else that they liked more than Shooter Sanders.
• 44:14
  Sanders could have been injured
• 44:16
  in any one of these practices or preseason games,
• 44:19
  and because of that,
• 44:20
  even if he was their chosen starter,
• 44:22
  would not start.
• 44:23
  And probably 10 other things I didn't think of.
• 44:26
  All that being said,
• 44:27
  there are so many paths for him not being the starter,
• 44:31
  and,
• 44:32
  you know,
• 44:32
  not to mention
• 44:33
  the fact that you have Deshaun Watson,
• 44:34
  a guy they're paying $230 million
• 44:36
  who could play well and become the starter.
• 44:38
  Or,
• 44:39
  uh,
• 44:39
  Gabriel,
• 44:39
  who's another pick that they picked ahead of Sanders last year
• 44:43
  to,
• 44:43
  uh,
• 44:43
  be the starter.
• 44:44
  He could have been the starter.
• 44:45
  All these things could have happened.
• 44:46
  And it was being treated like it was a,
• 44:48
  will he start or will he not?
• 44:49
  I don't know,
• 44:49
  it's 50/50.
• 44:50
  That's not just not the right,
• 44:52
  that's not the right price.
• 44:53
  I don't have a super strong feeling about Shooter Sanders either way,
• 44:57
  but that was not the right price for that contract.
• 44:59
  So we went in on a no on Sanders.
• 45:02
  Some of those boxes wound up checking out over time,
• 45:04
  you know,
• 45:04
  they didn't draft another quarterback,
• 45:05
  they didn't trade for another veteran presence.
• 45:08
  All that being said,
• 45:10
  one of the possibilities,
• 45:11
  which was Deshaun Watson beating him out for the
• 45:14
  job,
• 45:14
  at least in the coach's
• 45:16
  mind,
• 45:16
  is what wound up happening.
• 45:18
  This is what this market looks like.
• 45:19
  You can kind of see it develop over time.
• 45:21
  Uh,
• 45:22
  you could see,
• 45:23
  uh,
• 45:23
  Sanders going as high as about 60%,
• 45:27
  maybe even 70%,
• 45:28
  65%,
• 45:29
  70% at one point.
• 45:30
  Uh,
• 45:30
  I bought it around 50%.
• 45:32
  Uh,
• 45:32
  and you see,
• 45:33
  uh,
• 45:33
  it bounced back and forth.
• 45:35
  It,
• 45:35
  it's funny that you see that.
• 45:36
  Go back to,
• 45:37
  uh,
• 45:37
  give me like a week on this chart,
• 45:39
  Adam,
• 45:39
  um,
• 45:40
  because if you look at the week value of this,
• 45:42
  um,
• 45:44
  there it is.
• 45:44
  You see
• 45:45
  kind of that movement from
• 45:47
  the,
• 45:47
  where the blue line is lower there at the beginning,
• 45:49
  Adam,
• 45:50
  the August 21st area.
• 45:51
  Um,
• 45:51
  you see it around 20% or so,
• 45:54
  17% for Sanders,
• 45:55
  looked like Watson had it locked up.
• 45:57
  This is about by the time where we sold.
• 45:58
  I did not hold it all the way to the end,
• 46:00
  um,
• 46:01
  because I
• 46:02
  didn't know how this was gonna play out.
• 46:03
  Now,
• 46:04
  my fears kind of came through,
• 46:06
  true,
• 46:06
  honestly,
• 46:07
  where Sanders played better than Watson,
• 46:09
  and then Watson talked trash to his own fans.
• 46:11
  He just still got the job somehow.
• 46:13
  So I'm gonna miss out on a little bit of profit here,
• 46:14
  but I'm OK with that.
• 46:15
  Uh,
• 46:15
  you see,
• 46:16
  it comes,
• 46:16
  you see where
• 46:17
  the game.
• 46:19
  Where Sanders plays better,
• 46:20
  Watson plays worse,
• 46:20
  it comes back to a 50/50 position.
• 46:22
  So you could have done this.
• 46:23
  I held it for a few months at that position,
• 46:25
  but you could have had it for a couple of days ago.
• 46:27
  Then uh you see Watson named the starter.
• 46:30
  One more thing I want to point out on this.
• 46:33
  And this is pretty,
• 46:34
  look,
• 46:35
  this is a,
• 46:36
  I've got a decent amount of profit on this market already.
• 46:39
  OK,
• 46:39
  I'm telling you that in advance.
• 46:41
  But if I could get it at 1%,
• 46:44
  if I could get Sanders at 1%,
• 46:46
  maybe even 2,
• 46:48
  I might throw
• 46:50
  a few percent of my profit
• 46:51
  into that,
• 46:52
  because
• 46:53
  Watson is a,
• 46:54
  had a real problem.
• 46:56
  He's a head case,
• 46:56
  he's all over the board.
• 46:57
  Who knows what he does in the next two weeks.
• 46:59
  I don't care if he's been named the starter.
• 47:01
  If he continues to be terrible in camp,
• 47:03
  they could reverse that question.
• 47:05
  He could blow up and and leave or get dropped,
• 47:08
  or who knows,
• 47:10
  or he could get hurt.
• 47:11
  And if you're at 1%.
• 47:14
  I don't know,
• 47:15
  I might jump back in on the Sanders side for that one.
• 47:18
  so that's one more way you can play that.
• 47:20
  Um,
• 47:21
  quickly,
• 47:21
  let's do one more,
• 47:22
  uh,
• 47:22
  story cause it was a big story over the weekend.
• 47:24
  Uh,
• 47:24
  Ennis Cantor,
• 47:25
  uh,
• 47:26
  his Annis Cantor Freedom is his name,
• 47:28
  he writes a letter to the WNBA
• 47:29
  declaring for the 2027
• 47:31
  draft.
• 47:32
  Um.
• 47:35
  Look,
• 47:35
  this isn't gonna happen.
• 47:36
  He's not gonna get drafted by the WNBA.
• 47:38
  This is a left-wing organization
• 47:39
  who does not support
• 47:40
  his,
• 47:41
  um,
• 47:42
  what I would call
• 47:43
  realistic views as to what is a man and what is a woman.
• 47:47
  It's just not,
• 47:47
  it's just not what this organization is.
• 47:49
  They're not,
• 47:50
  there's no team that's going to draft him in this draft and say,
• 47:52
  oh,
• 47:52
  well,
• 47:53
  he's saying he's a woman,
• 47:54
  so he can play.
• 47:55
  He is trying to make this into a big deal.
• 47:58
  Uh,
• 47:58
  it is a,
• 47:59
  it's,
• 47:59
  it's a very entertaining situation.
• 48:01
  He went to a Fever Sky game
• 48:03
  with a shirt that said woman,
• 48:05
  noun,
• 48:06
  adult human female.
• 48:08
  Um,
• 48:09
  and he's,
• 48:09
  he got ejected,
• 48:10
  uh,
• 48:10
  Ennis Kantor Freedom ejected from Fever Sky game after he was confronted
• 48:14
  by the sky's cloud.
• 48:16
  Now,
• 48:16
  one of the interesting things about watching the video of
• 48:18
  this incident as he gets thrown out of the stadium,
• 48:21
  is he's so large,
• 48:22
  it looks like he could eat everyone on the other team,
• 48:25
  like he could just consume everyone in the stands.
• 48:27
  He's massive,
• 48:28
  he's 4 times as tall as anyone else around him,
• 48:31
  and it
• 48:32
  highlights.
• 48:33
  His position on the issue,
• 48:34
  right,
• 48:34
  where
• 48:35
  if he got drafted into this,
• 48:37
  if a man was allowed to play in women's sports.
• 48:40
  The,
• 48:40
  the man would average 50 points a game and,
• 48:42
  uh,
• 48:42
  you know,
• 48:43
  you go back to,
• 48:44
  to the day where he was drafted.
• 48:45
  He was drafted in the 2011 draft.
• 48:48
  So he's not a spring chicken
• 48:49
  as far as NBA,
• 48:50
  uh,
• 48:51
  terms go.
• 48:51
  Uh,
• 48:52
  but he was picked number 3 in the draft.
• 48:53
  He was a very highly,
• 48:55
  uh,
• 48:55
  recruited,
• 48:55
  uh,
• 48:55
  guy and,
• 48:56
  and highly drafted.
• 48:57
  Player,
• 48:57
  had a decent career.
• 48:58
  I think it lasted 11 years,
• 49:00
  averaged like 12 points and 8 rebounds.
• 49:02
  Never a superstar,
• 49:02
  but,
• 49:03
  you know,
• 49:03
  a decent rotational player.
• 49:04
  The point though,
• 49:05
  is that if he went into the WNBA he'd be the greatest player of all time.
• 49:08
  He might average 100 points a game.
• 49:10
  Now,
• 49:10
  there are no
• 49:11
  WNBA owners who are going to play along with this,
• 49:13
  and that's kind of where we went
• 49:15
  with this particular market.
• 49:16
  You see,
• 49:16
  it is climbing.
• 49:17
  Will Ennis Kantor play in a WNBA game in the 2027 season?
• 49:20
  This is a Calshi market,
• 49:21
  and I want to highlight this Calshi one.
• 49:23
  Um,
• 49:24
  because it's at 10%,
• 49:25
  and you might look at that and say,
• 49:25
  wow,
• 49:26
  10%,
• 49:27
  there's zero chance,
• 49:28
  uh,
• 49:29
  Ennis Kenter is actually gonna play in a WNBA game.
• 49:31
  They're,
• 49:31
  they're not going to allow
• 49:33
  this fun point
• 49:34
  being made on the conservative side
• 49:36
  to affect their league.
• 49:38
  That's just,
• 49:38
  it's just not,
• 49:39
  I don't think there's any,
• 49:40
  I think it's legitimately 0% chance that this happens.
• 49:43
  I can't,
• 49:44
  unless they sell a team to Clay Travis,
• 49:46
  like he's trying to get a team,
• 49:48
  uh,
• 49:48
  then maybe,
• 49:49
  uh,
• 49:49
  but I don't think it's gonna happen.
• 49:51
  So,
• 49:51
  I think you look at that and you say 10%,
• 49:53
  I wanna go no on that,
• 49:54
  which I get,
• 49:55
  but remember,
• 49:56
  this is the 2027 season.
• 49:57
  They're in the middle of the 2026 season.
• 49:59
  You gotta wait
• 50:00
  over a year
• 50:01
  to get this.
• 50:02
  10% over a year,
• 50:03
  we're getting to the point where it's not,
• 50:04
  not a bad return.
• 50:05
  Maybe a little part of your,
• 50:06
  uh,
• 50:07
  platform,
• 50:07
  uh,
• 50:07
  a little part of your portfolio,
• 50:09
  and there's nothing wrong with getting 10% of the year.
• 50:10
  We can usually beat that on prediction markets pretty easily.
• 50:13
  Um,
• 50:13
  so
• 50:14
  it's not a sexy return.
• 50:16
  I did have a position,
• 50:16
  however,
• 50:17
  that he would be not drafted,
• 50:19
  and this was over on poly market and I can't seem to find the contract right now.
• 50:22
  I'm gonna have to,
• 50:23
  I'm gonna have to find it,
• 50:23
  but,
• 50:24
  um,
• 50:25
  which was,
• 50:25
  would he be drafted in the 2027 WNBA draft that comes up sooner,
• 50:29
  obviously than.
• 50:30
  Um,
• 50:30
  then,
• 50:31
  uh,
• 50:31
  the season ending,
• 50:32
  um,
• 50:33
  which is when you need to go for this one to resolve.
• 50:35
  So you're thinking the end,
• 50:35
  it's more than a year before this resolves.
• 50:38
  I will say maybe it drops from 10 to 1 pretty soon,
• 50:41
  so maybe it's worth jumping in.
• 50:43
  You might get a short term return on it.
• 50:44
  Uh,
• 50:45
  but that one just resolved.
• 50:46
  I'm not sure why.
• 50:46
  I guess because the WNBA said basically they're not
• 50:48
  gonna allow him to be in the draft,
• 50:50
  so they,
• 50:50
  they resolved.
• 50:51
  Long story short though,
• 50:52
  there's a lot of positions like this.
• 50:54
  And if you happen to be someone who's into politics,
• 50:56
  you might say,
• 50:56
  well,
• 50:56
  I don't,
• 50:56
  I'm not interested in the sports stuff.
• 50:58
  This stuff affects the sports stuff all the time.
• 51:00
  Your political knowledge
• 51:02
  plays
• 51:03
  in the sports world.
• 51:03
  Another great example of this is a contract that we've talked about before.
• 51:06
  I don't,
• 51:06
  I don't think we can pull it up,
• 51:07
  but it's Sophie Cunningham,
• 51:09
  whether she will win
• 51:10
  the equivalent of the WNBA's 6th Man of the Year award.
• 51:13
  I think it's called the 6th Person of the Year
• 51:15
  over in the WNBA.
• 51:16
  The point is.
• 51:17
  Sophie Cunningham Cunningham,
• 51:18
  who's become a big outspoken person,
• 51:20
  not even,
• 51:21
  here it is,
• 51:22
  thank you,
• 51:22
  Adam,
• 51:22
  for pulling this up.
• 51:23
  She's now at 5% to win this.
• 51:26
  Uh,
• 51:26
  I,
• 51:26
  if you kind of see where it was in the area about 15 or 18 is where I was buying no on this.
• 51:32
  Why?
• 51:33
  Because there's no way this league,
• 51:35
  with its politics is going to give Sophie Cunningham an award.
• 51:39
  I don't care if she was the greatest player of all time,
• 51:43
  she wouldn't win
• 51:43
  an award in this,
• 51:44
  in this,
• 51:45
  uh,
• 51:45
  environment.
• 51:46
  That's just political knowledge.
• 51:47
  It got nothing to do with sports knowledge.
• 51:48
  Honestly,
• 51:49
  I don't watch any WNBA really,
• 51:51
  so I don't know how good of a player.
• 51:52
  She seems like she's a good role player,
• 51:53
  a good 6 uh 6th Man of the Year type of
• 51:56
  candidate,
• 51:56
  but like,
• 51:58
  probably not even
• 51:59
  on the merits
• 52:01
  is going to win that award.
• 52:02
  You know,
• 52:02
  like,
• 52:03
  she's a good player,
• 52:04
  but like probably not the best 6th man in the in the league.
• 52:07
  And then you add on to that the politic of the situation,
• 52:09
  there's no chance of her winning that award.
• 52:11
  So I have no position on that,
• 52:13
  that's already,
• 52:13
  you know,
• 52:14
  uh,
• 52:14
  we've sucked most of the profit out of that,
• 52:16
  but there's still some there,
• 52:17
  it's still a little bit there if you wanna grab some of that.
• 52:18
  OK,
• 52:19
  uh,
• 52:19
  I gotta take a break or I gotta go actually because,
• 52:21
  uh,
• 52:22
  the end of the show is here.
• 52:23
  We've done a long show for you today.
• 52:24
  I will say,
• 52:25
  um,
• 52:26
  uh,
• 52:26
  Gutfeld tonight,
• 52:27
  watch it.
• 52:28
  Uh,
• 52:28
  it's gonna be on Fox.
• 52:28
  News,
• 52:29
  of course,
• 52:29
  one of the biggest shows on cable news.
• 52:31
  I'll be there with a great panel and Greg Gutfeld
• 52:33
  talking probably about Ennis Kantor and so many other things,
• 52:36
  uh,
• 52:36
  tonight,
• 52:37
  uh,
• 52:37
  because that's gonna be a big story.
• 52:38
  So join us.
• 52:39
  Make sure you watch that,
• 52:40
  uh,
• 52:41
  would,
• 52:41
  would appreciate if you did.
• 52:42
  And of course,
• 52:43
  joining us at predictableShow.com.
• 52:44
  Tomorrow we'll have live vote results
• 52:46
  for you as we go through,
• 52:48
  uh,
• 52:48
  as they come out in,
• 52:49
  uh,
• 52:49
  Oklahoma.
• 52:50
  And of course,
• 52:51
  South Carolina.
• 52:52
  We wanna make sure we get all that stuff to you in real time.
• 52:55
  So we'll be doing a live stream
• 52:56
  throughout the results and carry it as long as we can.
• 52:58
  We'll have a,
• 52:58
  a subscriber-only chat about that as well.
• 53:01
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• 53:02
  Become a premium member.
• 53:02
  Every one of my picks in every prediction market,
• 53:04
  this Ennis Cantor one,
• 53:05
  the Sophie Cunningham thing,
• 53:07
  uh,
• 53:07
  the,
• 53:07
  the shooter Sanders,
• 53:08
  they're all listed for you.
• 53:10
  Uh,
• 53:10
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• 53:15
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• 53:18
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• 53:21
  on,
• 53:21
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• 53:22
  We're near the top of the bestsellers in business on Substack.
• 53:25
  We're moving up all the time thanks to you because you guys are awesome
• 53:29
  and uh you are interested in these things as much as I am.
• 53:31
  I'm obsessed with them,
• 53:32
  so
• 53:32
  I probably need less time on these markets,
• 53:34
  not more.
• 53:35
  Uh,
• 53:35
  but if you're interested in getting these things,
• 53:36
  we try to walk you through the education of it
• 53:38
  and of course,
• 53:39
  also the picks as well.
• 53:40
  So,
• 53:40
  thanks so much for joining us.
• 53:41
  Uh,
• 53:42
  we will uh see you soon.
• 53:43
  Watch us on Gutfeld
• 53:44
  and we will be back tomorrow night.