Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Hard to Figure Friday | MLB & WNBA | 7/31/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Hard to Figure Friday | MLB & WNBA | 7/31/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: your chase, black coffee on the felt Man, you look
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: like a mess. Three team Parlette turned the dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head. Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this man. But don't you go quiet. Don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor. Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: on somebody for show. Put the glass down, baby, look
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: at me?
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: Now, hold on, hold on and me but it all
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: get the crown, hold on, hold on and stay with me.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Now, what's up? Everybody?
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: It's towed back with you with toad Stool Sports for Friday,
• 1:32
  Speaker 4: July thirty first, the end of July. It's not been
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: the greatest month on the show. We've been better over
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: the last couple of weeks, though. I guess we went
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: one to oh and one on the show yesterday. It
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: should have been to and oh. I mean we had
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: Washington Nationals in the first five. They're winning the game
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: three to one in the bottom of the fifth. That's
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: you're in pretty good shape. Yeah, if all you have
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: to do is escape the bottom of the fifth and
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: not allowed at least two runs there.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: And what did they do?
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Jake Irvin whatever, they allowed exactly two runs. I mean,
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: at least it wasn't a loss, but it wounded being
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: a push when it was almost a guaranteed winner at
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: that point they did.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: Lose the full game.
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: If they won the full game, I was gonna be
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: extra piss because that was obviously a potential way to
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: play that is to play Washington in the full game.
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: I would have been really really angry if that happened.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: But they did not.
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: They lost, so first five was still the better way
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: to play it.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: It should have been a win.
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: It was a push, and then we did get the
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: win with the under in Marlin's mets, which would have
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: been easy in the first I'm pretty sure it was
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: one nothing at the end of five, so that would
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: have been an easy first five winner. I guess I
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: should have done it that way, but it shouldn't have
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: even been that close to not cashing. I got worried
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: near the end because it became a two to two game,
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: and I'm like, oh shit, because if it goes into
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: extra innings, you know, with the ghost runner and whatever,
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: that's where unders go to. I'm like, just please, don't
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: have that happen. Just have some team win three to
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: two right now. And the Mets scored two runs with
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: two outs in the bottom of the eighth to make
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: it four to two, and then one more run is
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: gonna push your bet. Two more is gonna lose it,
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: and all of a sudden like this is not good,
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: and then you need They brought in Devin Williams. I
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: think he pitched two games in a row, and he's
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: not a good closer really. I mean, he wasn't that
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: good for the Yankees last year, and I'm like, I'm like, yeah,
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: this might be bad. But he actually did finish it off,
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: so he had a scoreless ninth, so we won on
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: the under and Marlin's Mets. All right, I don't like
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: the board today. Just so you know, I've I think
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna give out one play. I handicapped all of
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: this last night, so I'm gonna go through it again,
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: refresh my memory, and I guess if I see something
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: I didn't see last night, maybe I'll add something. But
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: I didn't see much that I really liked. It will
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: be a baseball play that I have, And I don't
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: even know if I like this one.
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: Ramone, what's up? Man?
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: Thanks for checking out the show. All right, let's get
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: into this. We do have one afternoon baseball game today.
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: It's Friday, so these weekend series are mostly starting, although
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: I think Pittsburgh Cincinnati, I think is actually continuing. They
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: started their series yesterday. Kind of a weird four game
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: series starting on Thursday.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: But we do have mostly new series beginning.
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: Yankees and Cubs is the first game, which is one
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: of these Friday afternoon Wrigley games here. Yankees might have
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a situational advantage here because they're
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: staying in Chicago. The Yankees just played at the White Sox.
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: The Yankees are not having to travel anywhere. So they
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: did lose the last two games, but that makes this
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: a better spot for the Yankees because they don't have
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: to go anywhere. They might bounce back after some of
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: those losses there. Cubs are in a negative spot in
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: my opinion, because they're returning home from a road trip,
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: although it was all within their division, not one of
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: those road trips that really takes them a whole bunch
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: of places, but it was Pittsburgh Saint Louis. They had
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: a successful road trip. They won both divisional series there,
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: returning home.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: Yankees not really a.
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: Team that you necessarily overlook. But I always point out
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: that when a team returns home from the road, they've
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: been away for a while, they got stuff to do
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: at homes. A lot of times it could be a distraction.
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: So the situation definitely favors the Yankees here. Start digging
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: into the matchup, though, and it gets, you know, maybe
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: a little bit more questionable whether or not you really
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: want to play.
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: The Yankees here.
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: The Cubs did use five relief pitchers yesterday, the Yankees
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: only used three, So the Yankees are gonna have the
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: bullpen advantage here. The Yankees are number four in bullpen
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: right now and they have the best era, tied with
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox, both of them below any ra of
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: three right now. Cubs are fifteenth, so not a horrible
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: bullpen for the Cobs. Cubs are number three in offense,
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: and the Yankees have been struggling offensively really since Aaron
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: Judge has gotten down, they've kind of fallen off a bit.
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: They're at twelfth right now, tied with the A's Will
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: Warren is pitching for the Yankees, though, and that's kind
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: of the thing. You get the situation favoring the Yankees. Here,
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: the bullpen favors the Yankees, but they do not have
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: the better of the two starting pitchers pitching here. Will
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: warn he's like the last guy in the rotation pretty much.
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'm not gonna say he's awful, but he's
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: not great. Four point four to one ERA, one point
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: four to one.
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: Whip is pretty high. He's been bad on the road.
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: Five Roady Ray pitched pretty poorly last time out on
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: the road at Philadelphia. Had some really short outing before that,
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: which maybe he came out of the bullpen I don't know,
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: because he had had like ten days of rest and
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: then made this really short stint, like he had this
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: short appearance against Pittsburgh and then I guess they put
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: him back in the rotation after that. I don't know,
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: Like all this moving the starting pitcher around like between
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: the bullpen back into the rotation, that can sometimes mess
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: with his rhythm as well, because pitchers like to stay
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: on schedule and he's not really right now. So I
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: don't think i'd really trust Will Warren here.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: Against the Cubs.
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: The Cubs have hit him oka and twenty two at bats,
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: not a huge sample, but they have a two seventy
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: three average, seven to seventy five ops against them one
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: to two strikeout walk ratio, So I don't think I
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: really want to back Warren here. Cubs are a huge favorite, though,
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: like this is another one of those, or not huge
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: but pretty big, another one of these games where this
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: is one of the biggest underdog prices you're gonna get
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: on the Yankees all season, which I know. I said
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: that against Philadelphia, where Philadelphia is an even heavier favorite
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: than this, not too long ago, and Philadelphia won that
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: game easily with Sanchez on the mound. I think it
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: might have been against Warren and maybe it's justified, but
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: I don't know, Man, it seems a little bit of
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: a high price tag on the Cubs here. They do
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: have showed to Emonnag on the mound, and I told you,
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: like it seemed like a lot of people were saying
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: Iman nagas done, like he's been figured out, he's been
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: in the league for two years and now whatever. I
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: told you No, Like I was looking at his underlying
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: metrics and whatever, and I still think he's good and
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: he has been good again recently, So yeah, I don't
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: think he's anywhere close to done. Three point seven to
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: two ERA one point one whip that's pretty good.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: He's been a little bit worse at home though. Four
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: point zero six.
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: Homy Ra went six shutout innings last time out against
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh on the road.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: That is not easy to do.
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: That's a very high caliber offense at home, shut out
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: Minnesota for seven innings the game before that. He's been
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: really in good form over his last three starts. Really
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: four of the last five have been good. So yeah,
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: he's on fire right now. He's got a low hit rate,
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: low walk rate, reasonable strikeout rate. His only problem has
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: been the home run ball he's gotten to him, and
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: some of those might have been some of those win games.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: Of course, of course field what am I saying?
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: Coursefield Wrigley Field where they have the wind, the huge
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: wind effect there. Imnaga against the New York Yankees has
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: twenty seven at bats against him. He's pitched pretty well
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: to twenty two average six twenty oh ps seven to
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: one strike out walk ratio. The Yankees have the situation alledge,
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: but I might prefer backing eam Monago over Warren here. Warren,
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: by the way, his hit rate is pretty high. It's
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: above one per inning. His walk rate is okay, and
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: his strike out rate is decent, it's one per inning.
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I think you got you got to decide
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: what you want here, like do you want to back
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: the situation or do you and I don't mean the
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: guy from Jersey Shore, or do you want to back
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: the better pitching, which is the Cubs. Here, Cubs have
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: moved up from minus one thirty six to minus one
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: fifty seven at DK, So the line has moved up
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: on the Cubs. A lot of the books have like
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: minus one forty something.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: It looks like, well, it looks like there's a disparity here,
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: like those sharp books in Vegas have that lower number,
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: and then the.
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: Like big online dudes all have the higher number there,
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: which that doesn't totally tell me that that that means
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: that the actual money is necessarily on the Yankees. But
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: because the Cubs are the favor a lot of times,
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: the favorite price is just more enormous at these bigger
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: books because the public just has.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: A tendency to play favorites.
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: In this case, we have fifty nine percent of the tickets,
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: fifty nine percent of the cash on.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: The Cubs. So not really.
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, it's hard to read what's going on
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: in the market here, and then the total looks like
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: it has some action on the over nine here total
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: seems a little bit high. Maybe there is some wind
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: blowing out here in Wrigley here today, I think I
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: would lean to the Cubs in the first five innings,
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: though they don't have the bullpen advantage, but I think
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: ima Naga has the advantage over Warren somewhat significantly, So
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: I think that would probably be how I would play.
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: That is, play the Cubs in the first five.
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: But you're gonna have to lay a half run to
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: do that, and I'm not really jumping out of my
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: seat to do that.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: William, what's up? Man? Whose problem? What? What are we
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: talking about? I don't know what we're talking about.
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: Next game is gonna be my one play here, and
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: I don't even really like it. I don't like the
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: board today, man. So sometimes I just don't feel great
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: about some of these.
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: But maybe that's a good thing.
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: I don't know, or maybe on the other hand, this
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: seems too obvious, But given the state of these two
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: pictures right now, I'm not sure it does seem that obvious.
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: But I'm gonna give out Pittsburgh Cincinnati first five innings
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: under the three and a half. But what I will
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: say is the full game total here is at eight,
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: so I was expecting they'd be able to see a
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: four here. If you wanted to go full game on this,
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: I guess you could. But I really don't like these bullpens,
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: so I don't want to do anything with these two
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: bullpens here. But I like the starting pitchers, so this
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: is the way that I'm gonna do it. I was
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: hoping that a four would come up. I would say,
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: wait and see if you can get the four, because
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: the worst you're gonna get on this as a three
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: and a half at some reasonable price here. But it's
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: probably worth it to see if you can get that
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: extra half run somewhere because it's so close to hitting
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: four there. I want to back these two pitchers here,
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: skeens and green screens. I like the starting pitching matchup here,
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: obviously Cincinnati. This Seeri has already started at Cincinnati won
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: the game three to two yesterday. I expected it to
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: be a much higher scoring game yesterday with Rhett Louder
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: going for Cincinnati against a Pittsburgh bullpen game.
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know what happened there.
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: But that's also another reason why I don't want to
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: deal with the bullpens Pittsburgh. Their bullpen's not very good
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: and they used five guys out of the bullpen. Cincinnati's
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: bullpen is even worse and they used three. So I
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: don't want to factor in the bullpens here unless I'm
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: fading them. I mean, they're not the absolute worst bullpens here,
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: but they're twenty fourth and twenty fifth Pittsburgh and Cincinnati respectively.
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: Mid four ZRA not really trustworthy, especially in the state
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: that Pittsburgh is in right now. Pittsburgh does have a
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: good offense, they're number three, tied with the Cubs, but
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: they're better at home than they are on the road,
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: and they are on the road here, although I know
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: this is a hitter friendly ball park in Cincinnati. Cincinnati
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: has been struggling at the plate their twenty second and
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: I believe they lost Steer to an injury, so I
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: don't know. He might not be in the lineup. Skeens
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: is pitching for the Pirates. Like I said, he's I
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: know he's not having his greatest season here. He's got
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: a three point six y five rara, which is bad
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: for him, but one point oh six whip, even though
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: usually he's got a whip I think usually below one.
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: But that whip still kind of indicates I think his
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: era should be a bit lower than it is here. Skeens,
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: he's been only a little bit worse on the road
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: three point nine to niney rara, but this is still
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: pretty good here. Had kind of a bad outing last
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: time out against the Cubs, but the Cubs specifically do
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: damage against Skeens. As I pointed out when I handicapped
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: that game, it's not a good matchup for me.
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: And he's still had eleven strikeouts.
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: In that one in five and a third inning, so
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: he wasn't like completely off his game there.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: He's still fooling hitters, even.
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: Though it doesn't look like he's pitching that well right now.
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: His command numbers are still really good, high strikeout rate,
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: low walk right. He's just been a little bit too
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: hit a mole recently, but he was able to break
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: that streak where Pittsburgh was just not scoring for him.
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: They were losing every game when he was on the mound.
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: But we don't need them to win here.
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: He just needs Skeens to not allow that many runs here.
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate, high
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate. I mean not surprising. We know that Skeens
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: is good and he's been good against the Reds in
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: the past. They have eighty six at bats against him
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: and they haven't done much against him thirty three strikeouts,
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: six walks, so that is an enormous strikeout rate, and
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: he hasn't really walked any of them. Two oho nine
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: batting average, Willow five twenty eight ops. These are pretty
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: dominant numbers from Skeins against Cincinnati. And since now he's
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: going with Hunter Green, and I think people are not
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: gonna want to back him because he has a seven
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: point zero six ERA one point three to four whip.
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: But Green is a very good pitcher. The Reds might
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: be considering him for a trade though. That is one
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: thing that would be a little bit worried about, is
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: the trade rumors, Like are they going around in his
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: head right now? I think he's going to bounce back
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: from his most recent start here because Green.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: Is too good, like not too like.
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: I think people kind of forget about Green, but he's
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: been really, really good the last couple of seasons.
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: Last year he was excellent.
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: I'm really the last two seasons he was excellent before
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: he got hurt. And he's still young, so I don't
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: think he's anywhere near done yet. And he's been slightly
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: better at home so far six point nine to seventy RA.
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: But what I'm saying is I would throw these numbers
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: pretty much out what we've seen so far, because we
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: know that he's really good.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: He's going to be back and form at some point.
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: I'm actually surprised that he's had two bad starts so
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: far out of his four because I backed him in
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: his first start, and I told you back then that
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: he was dominating in his minor league rehab stuff. And
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: I know the majors are different than the miners, but still,
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: when you see a guy pitching that well on the miners,
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: like that's a good sign that he's ready to go.
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: So I was surprised he got blasted by Baltimore and
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: then it looked like everything was fine after that. He
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: pitched really well against the Cubs, pitch pretty well in
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: course field after that, which is not easy to do.
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: But then he had a setback and he didn't pitch
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: well against Saint Louis, which is not a good offense.
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: It was in a pitcher friendly park there. I don't
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: know what that was. But I'm expecting Green to bounce
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: back here, and I know he's going up, but it's
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: a good Pittsburgh offense here. He's been good against them
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: when he's faced them, fifty five at bats, seventeen strikeouts,
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: three walks, two hundred average.
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: Five fifty ops allowed.
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: So both pitchers, I think, are good, and they both
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: have good matchup numbers here, And that's kind of the
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: way that I simplify this whole thing.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: The money's not agreeing with me. The money's coming in
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: on the over, although.
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: That's a full game market here, I think this. Yeah,
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: this actually does let you look at the first half
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: numbers here, but we don't see any market read on it,
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. So that's interesting wager Talk's
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: odds logic screen that they have here, But yeah, that
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: doesn't really help me. We have fifty two percent of
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: the tickets on the under, eighty eight percent of the
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: cash on the over for the full game with a
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: total higher than I think at eight, like the seven
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: and a half. I'm worried because it opens seven and
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: a half and it immediately got driven up to eight
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: by what I assume is professional money. So that does
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: worry me a little bit, But that is a full
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: game market. So some of that is banking on the
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: bullpens to fail here, and I'm not gonna do that.
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna bank on the starting pitching to do well here.
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh is also a favorite on the road. I'm not
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: interested in laying a price like that. Seventy eight percent
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: of tickets, ninety percent of the cash on Pittsburgh. They've
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: gone up to about minus one thirty something here. I
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: mean it's Paul Skeens. A lot of times they're gonna
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: have to pay a price for Skiings. I think Green
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: is being very underrated here. Like I think both pitchers
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: are very good. It's it's difficult for me to tell
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: you which picture is better than the other really, to
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: be honest, I mean Skiens is, yeah, probably somewhat better,
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: but that price is kind of crazy on the road.
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: So I think another way you could look at this
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: is is to take Cincinnati in the first five and
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: just take Green to be undervalued here and potentially dual
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: Skiings for the first five innings. But my preference is
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: the under and obviously, you know, when I like it
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: to be lower scoring, that usually indicates that I kind
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: of think that the underdog does have a better chance
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: to kind of hang around in that game. The bullpens
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: are just a total mess. So again, I'm not doing
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: anything there with those imonaga.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: Oh that's a yeah, show to man, Gina. I am
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: one sixty nine one thirteen.
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: Man, it's like a sixty rate, which is basically unsustainable.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: Like if you hit fifty five percent in this business,
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: you're gonna win.
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: Yes, Hunter Green, he vomits on the mound a lot,
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: which is the one.
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: Thing that I bring up because it's a it's a
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: very rare thing. The vomit ball, dirty sock. What's up? Sob,
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: what's up?
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: I have nothing in the WNBA today, although I probably
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: agree with that lean on Seattle plus the points, uh WNBA.
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: I don't like the board at all today, Dude.
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: I like nothing today, really, But I just gave you
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: my only play of the day. I just gave it
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: out first five under in Pittsburgh Cincinnati.
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: But I'm waiting to see if I can get a
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: four on that. It's skins and green Man.
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: I just hope they both can hold up in that one,
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia and Baltimore.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: I like Baltimore in this one.
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: I mean Philadelphia, we don't even know who they're starting
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: for their pitcher here, So if you play this game,
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: you should play young must start for Baltimore, and don't
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: pick a starter for Philadelphia because they're gonna go with
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: a bullpen game today. That's what's next up in Philly's
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: rotation is the bullpen game. They've had kind of a
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: hole in the rotation all year. It was like Andrew
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: Painter for a while, and they've been going with a
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: bullpen game for a while, so I don't think that's
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: a really good thing. Baltimore is returning home from a
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: road trip, but they went to Detroit. It was only
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: a single series road trip, although they did play twelve innings,
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: but they had yesterday off. I'm pretty sure both teams
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: are off yesterday, so these teams do have rest, so
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: that could help Baltimore after they had a twelve inning game. Yes,
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: they're returning home from the road, but it was again only
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: a single series in Detroit, so that worries me less.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: Like I think the longer the road trip. The worse
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: the return is.
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: Because more stuff has piled up to do at home
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: when you've only been away for a few days. I
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: don't think it matters as much Philadelphia is traveling. They're
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: coming in from Miami. They did just get swept by Miami. Apparently,
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: there's some rumors circulating the Toronto my trade Goussman to
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: the Phillies and then Schooable. By the way, the team
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: that has the best odds to get Schoolble right now
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: is the Dodgers. It's so insane, dude, Like, imagine if
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers get Schooable and put him in the.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: Rotation, like half of the rotation.
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: They have like all these elite starters that aren't even
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: pitching right now, which is exactly what they did last year,
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: and then they had all these guys fresh for the
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: playoff run, these elite starters like Snell and Glasnow and whatever.
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: Imagine if they add Schooble to their rotation. It's so ridiculous.
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: Although I'd rather have that happen than have the Yankees
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: get him, so unless the Yankees are gonna blow it
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: with them, but whatever, It'll be interesting to see what
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: happens over the weekend with trades here. Anyway, Philadelphia could
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: be in a bounce back spot here though, because they
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: did just get swept by Miami. So a lot of
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: times you'll see a team that just gets swept and
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: bounced back a little bit. But I prefer Baltimore here.
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: A lot of it is based on the matchup. But again,
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: I don't think you're gonna get good pitching from Philadelphia
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: here going with a bullpen game, and their bullpen is
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: not good. They are ranked twentieth in bullpen. The Orioles
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: have the better bullpen, they're ranked ninth, so there's a
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: pretty significant bullpen advantage for Baltimore here. Baltimore is also
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: the better offense. They're eighteenth, but the Phillies have really struggled.
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: They're twenty third, and the Phillies have not been a
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: good offense on the road. Brandon Young pitching for Baltimore.
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: He's pitching pretty well recently. We backed him against the Braves,
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: I think maybe in his most recent start, and we
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: got the win.
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: With that one of what was close.
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: He's got a three point one to three ERA one
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: point two to nine whip. That whip has been going
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: down though, even though it is a little bit too high,
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: Like it's indicative that his ERA should be higher than this,
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: but he's still like, I think a high threes ERA
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: pitcher right now, I would say, haven't. I don't go
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: into the advanced analytics and look at the expected RA
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: and stuff. But I'm old school man. I just look
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: at how many guys are you putting on base. Young
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: has been good at home two point eight five home
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: e RA good this month, twenty three to seven strike
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio three point two ERA this month in
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: four starts Baltimore has won all four of them. Yeah,
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: he's pitching pretty well. He's allowed one on and run
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: each in his last couple of outings. He's gone at
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: least six innings in his last three or at least
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: six and a third.
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: I should say. So there's a lot to like here
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: with Young right now.
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: He really hasn't had a good career up to this point,
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: but he seems to finally be getting something going here.
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: He's got a pretty low hit rate here.
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is a little bit too high, so
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: that's the reason for his whip being high. He's one
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: really really is one issue, as the walks and his
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: strike up rate isn't really that high. He's just not
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: really a huge strikeout pitcher, which sometimes is okay against Philadelphia.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: They really don't have much experience against him.
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: Only Derek Hill has ever faced him, and he's got
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: a walk and is only a bad against him. So basically,
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: young is unfamiliar to Philadelphia, and I consider that to
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: be an extra advantage to the pitcher. When you have
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: a young pitcher pun intended in this case, who's good
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: and he's going up against the lineup that hasn't seen
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: him before, I think that's usually an extra advantage to
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: that picture. So yeah, I would play Baltimore here if
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: I was gonna play this one, probably full game, because
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: I think they have the bultpen edge as well.
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: It looks like the money agrees with that.
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: Baltimore's a small favorite here minus one fourteen or so.
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: They haven't really moved on the line here. Fifty six
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets, fifty two percent of the cash on Philly,
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: So the public with no pitcher decided, is still kind
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: of leaning towards Philadelphia here.
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, I get the Phillies as an underdog.
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I like Baltimore U fifty two percent of the
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: money on Philly. So yeah, less of the ticket percentage
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: than less of the money percentage.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: In the ticket percentage, I should.
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: Say money seems to also be backing the over nine
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: or eight and a half in this game. I don't
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: have a strong opinion on the over or I mean,
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: on the total there, but I guess you know, they're
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: probably more indicators towards an over than an under.
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. I think Baltimore is the way
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: to look at that game.
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: All right, Saint Louis in Toronto, and on the surface
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: it looks like a huge pitching mismatch and an advantage
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: for Toronto. Actually, let me just make sure that I
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: was right about Philly and Baltimore not playing yesterday. Yeah,
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: this website hadn't really updated last night. This website was
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: all fucked up last night. Like the table everything was
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: shifted by one day, so all the pitchers that pitched
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: on Wednesday were showing on Thursday.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: I was like, the what is going on here? Anyway? Yes,
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: both those teams are off. All right, Saint Louis in Toronto.
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: As I was saying, it looks like there's a big
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: starting pitching advantage Toronto here. But you do have to
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: pay a price for it, and I would be a
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: little bit concerned actually about trying to play Toronto here,
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: especially if you're gonna try to play a price like
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: that and Toronto can't score. Do you really want to
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: play the Blue Jays at a huge price like that? Now,
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: Toronto does have a rest advantage here because they didn't
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: play yesterday. But they're returning home from a road trip.
• 25:20
  Speaker 4: They went to Boston and Washington. And you know, again,
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna reiterate it, when a team returns home from
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: the road, a lot of times they struggle. They have
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: to get back to home life. They can be distracted.
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: I mean, Toronto's not going anywhere this year. Do you
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: think they're really going to show up for a series
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: against the Cardinals.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know.
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: It doesn't seem like an opponent that's really going to
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: draw their focus. But on the other hand, Saint Louis
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: had to play yesterday and they were involved in a
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: big divisional matchup against the Cubs yesterday, So Saint Louis
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: is at a rest disadvantage here. Saint Louis used four
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers yesterday. They are starting a road trip now, though,
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: so starting a road trip is generally a focused spot
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: because you want to get off on the right foot on.
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: The road trip.
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I mean they're negatives for both teams here,
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: right like Toronto return home spot negative Saint Louis positive
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: that they're starting a road trip, but negative that they
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: played yesterday in Toronto. Positive they didn't play yesterday. So
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: there are conflicting situational factors here. Saint Louis is going
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: with Kyle lay Hey here. He's not as good as
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: his ZRA looks three point five to five ERA, one
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: point three to four whip is not that good, although
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: he's been pitching a little bit better recently. But he's
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: also not as good on the road. Four point twenty
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: seven roadyra. So he takes advantage of Saint Louis's pitcher
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: friendly park when he's at home.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: But he's been pretty good this month.
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: He's got a twenty one to three strike out walk
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: ratio this month when at least five innings in all
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: but one of his outings here. And I don't even
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: know why he only went three innings in the Braves game.
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: Maybe there was a a rain delay or an injury.
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: He might have actually come out of a bullpen because
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: he didn't pitch for ten days after that, so I
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: don't know, but whatever, he's been good since he's rejoined
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: the starting rotation in his last two starts, and that's
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: what he did all those Saint Louis lost both games.
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: That was because their offense can't do anything. Le He's
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: been good for like a bit over a month now.
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: He does have kind of a high hit rate here.
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: Those walk rate is okay, strike out rate is low.
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: He's not really a strikeout guy, but yeah, he is
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: at least pitching better, and he's facing a weak Blue
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: Jays line up here.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: They have five at bats against him.
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: They have had success though four hundred average fourteen hundred ops,
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: but it's such a small sample size, Like how much
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: weight do we put into a home run from Alejandro
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: Kirk and a single from George Springer that's what they
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: have against him.
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man.
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: And as far as though these teams have done offensively,
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: because I forgot to show the rankings here, Saint Louis
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: is really plummeted offensively as well. They're twenty sixth and
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: the Jays are twenty ninth, So we have two bad
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: offenses going here today. Toronto has the better bullpen and
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: arrested the ranked fourteen. Saint Louis is twenty first, so
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: Toronto definitely has a bullpen advantage here. With the better
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: bullpen plus the more rested one, they have a pitching
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: at edge they should throughout this.
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: Game because Dylan Cees is pitching.
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: Cees having a really good season, a two point four
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: to six ERA one point zero nine whip. He's actually
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: not as good at home. He has a three RA
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: at home, which is still not bad. One concern from
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: him though, is he's coming off one of his best
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: outings ever where he had a complete game, one hit
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: shutout against the Red Sox with twelve strikeouts, three walks,
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: and he threw one hundred and twenty pitches. I mean,
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: that's gonna catch up to you at some point, you know.
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: Like I know, Cees is a guy that they let
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: him go. They let him throw a lot of pitches.
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: He's used to that. He's very inefficient actually with his pitches.
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: As you can see, he's topped like he's gone around
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: one hundred and ten pitches multiple other times this year
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: in fairly short outings too. So yeah, he is because
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: he has a ton of rikeouts and a ton of walks,
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: so he works all these deep counts, which is not
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: necessarily a great thing. He has a really low hit rate, though,
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: so he's basically unhittable, which you need to be.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: If you're gonna have the walk rate that he does.
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: He still walks too many guys and his strikeout rate
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: is really high as well, so he's unhittable. He strikes
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: out a ton of guys, but he also walks a
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: ton of guys.
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: That's what he does. But I would be worried a
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: little bit.
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: This was just an insane outing from him against the
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: Red Sox and letting him go one hundred and twenty.
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: The last time he hit a pitch count like that,
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: he went one hundred and eighteen in an eight INNY
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: one hit shutout against San Francisco, and I think I
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: thought that they let him do that because he was
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: going into the All Star break after that, so that
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: gave him a little bit of a break, even though
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: he pitched in the All Star Game and did pretty well.
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: But yeah, he doesn't have an extra rest here, man,
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: He's on normal rest.
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: After that.
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: Red Sox starts, so I might have some concerns with
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: cec here against Saint Louis.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: He's actually not good against them, believe it or not.
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: In thirty five career at bats, they have seven hitters
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: who have faced him three fourteen average, eight sixty six
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: oh ps, eleven to two strikeout walk ratio.
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: So the ratio is good, but those other numbers are
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: not good.
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: The money's back in the under in this one. It's
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: seven and a half. It's a low total, so the
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: oddsmakers are telling you they think it's gonna be a
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: low scoring game. Sixty three percent of the tickets, seventy
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: eight percent of the cash on the under, and a
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: lot of that has to do with Cease being on
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: the mound. But I just showed you, man, there are
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: some concerns here, and the money on the side looks
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: like it's actually back in Saint Louis eighty four percent
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: of the tickets and sixty six percent of the cash
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: on Toronto at about minus one seventy something. I don't
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: necessarily disagree with the Saint Louis side. Again, you might
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: be able to simplify it to just Toronto's overvalued here,
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: like you know you're paying too much of a price
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: for cease being on the mound, and they're in a
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: return home spot, so it is a bad spot if
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: you're gonna play Saint Louis, I would only play first
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: five innings. I would not take them in the full
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: game because they definitely are at a bullpend advantage here.
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: I don't really want to back lay hey either though,
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: And in fact, I actually think the better way to
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: play this game, if I was gonna play it all,
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: would actually be to.
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: Take the over.
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: I mean, you just saw neither starting pitchers has good
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: matchup numbers here, and I know these offenses are both
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: really bad, which is factoring into this number here, Like
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: these offenses have been to Toronto's been bad all season
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: and Saint Louis has been really bad recently. So yeah,
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: part of that is that's part of the reason why
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: the total is so low. And when I first saw
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: this matchup, yeah, I mean my first reaction to this
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: was thinking this could be an under, but digging into
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: the matchup numbers there and being worried about ceases workload here, yeah,
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I think an over might make
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: sense there. There's not a lot of leeway with the
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: seven and a half, although, as I always say, if.
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: The total is low, it's low for reasons.
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: You don't really necessarily want to go over a low
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: total like that because it looks almost too inviting. Arizona
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: at Cleveland. Whoops, Cleveland is returning home from a road trip.
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: A lot of that on Fridays and Mondays. They were
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: in Tampa Bay and they got swept, and then they
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: or yeah, they got swept, and then they were in
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati and they just won the Battle of Ohio, which
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: I believe was two days ago.
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: I think they were off yesterday.
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: I think both teams are off yesterday, Arizona and Cleveland here. Yeah,
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: so both teams are on rest here. Both teams have
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: decent bullpens Arizona seventh, although I still don't like their
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: era though.
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: Being above four.
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: Cleveland's thirteenth, they have a better bullpen era. I think
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: Cleveland is the better bullpen out of the two. But
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: they're both capable bullpens and they're both rested, so I
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: would not avoid the bullpens necessarily in this game. I
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: would probably be okay including them if I was going
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: to do something in this game. Both offenses have struggled
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: Arizona's twenty first. Cleveland is thirtieth dead last. So we have, yeah,
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: two offenses that don't do well.
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: Cleveland plays a lot of low scoring games at home,
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: but they're going up against.
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: Mitch Bratt, who's pitching for the d Backs here. He's
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: a very young pitcher. They're trying to develop him still,
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: and he's not done well so far. Six point three
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: two ERA, one point nine to eight whip is really bad.
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: He's been really bad on the road, a seven point
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: three six Roady Ray those opponent batting average.
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: Is actually worse at home. But it's such a small
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: sample size.
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: I think you just got to kind of look at
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: what has he done so far, look at these pitching lines. Now,
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: he hasn't had it that easy, and that he's had
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: to face the Dodgers in Washington both on the road.
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: Those are not easy opponents to face. He finally went
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: five innings against Washington, but he walked five guys, gave
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: up five runs.
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: You know, wasn't good in that start.
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: Did also face Saint Louis in his first outing and
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: actually was decent in that one. That was the weakest
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: offense that he faced. Didn't do really well against the
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: A's either at home, which is not great. If that
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: was on the road, I'd be more willing to overlook
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: it because obviously the A's have that ridiculous pitching or
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: excuse me, ridiculus hitting at stadium there. And I believe
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: every game in that AS Red Sox series went under
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: the total, which is insane, which I'll talk about that
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: more when I get to probably talking about the As.
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: Later in the show.
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: Mitch Bratt, he's allowed too many hits, way over one
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: hit per inning right now. Is walk rate is also
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: really high, almost one per inning. Strikeout rate is not
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: particularly high either, So so far, there's not a lot
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: to like about him. And although he's going to be
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: unfamiliar to the opposing offense here, which is Cleveland, and
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: Cleveland is a weak offense, so maybe maybe he'll do
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: okay here because it's an easier task than this will
• 34:36
  Speaker 4: be the weakest offense he's faced so far, so it'll
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: be an easier task than the rest. But I still
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: don't really trust him. And Tanner Biby is going for Cleveland.
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: He's definitely the better of these two pitchers. I mean,
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: he's obviously the established one. He's been pretty good this
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: year three point eight to ninety ray one point one.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: To eight whip.
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: He's been a little bit worse at home the ray
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: wise four point oh one, although his opponent bat average
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: that is actually better at home.
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: Bibbey has been pretty good in.
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: His last three starts after he had a hiccup against
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: the White Sox, but he's been pitching pretty well against
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: since then. All those strikeout rates have been low recently,
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: but he's generally had a pretty good season here. He's
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: generally been pretty good since the beginning of June. He's
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: got a low hit rate, his walk rate's pretty low
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: as well. Strikeout rate is also low though, and I
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: thought that he used to be a better strikeout pitcher
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: than this. But yeah, that's maybe a little bit of
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: a concern that he's just not striking anybody out here.
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: He's a lot a lot of home runs too, which
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: is kind of a concern that it makes it makes
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: it look like he is pretty hittable here, But his
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: overall numbers still, i mean, including the whips, still tell
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: you he's pitched pretty well here against Arizona.
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: As I click on the wrong team, I hate this.
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: When we get a new series and ESPN does an
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: update right away. As I always say, Biby has been
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: pretty good against Arizona. They have thirty nine at bats
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: against some seven of their hitters have faced him twelve
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: strikeouts walks a lot of strikeouts there, two thirty one
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: average six seventy nine oh ps, so Biby has had
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: the upper hand there. I think the only way to
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: really play this game is to play Cleveland. I think
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: they have the advantage of the starting pitching, and I
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: would say probably with the bullpen as well. Though, if
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: you want to focus on their biggest edge, first five
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: innings might make sense, but you're gonna pay a bigger
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: price for it. In the first five the line hasn't
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: really moved at all. They're laying like minus one thirty
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: something here. On the full game. It's probably gonna be
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: closer to minus one fifty in the first five though,
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: so be aware of that. If you're gonna play Cleveland
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: in the first five, you're probably gonna have to lay
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: the half run there and hope that they're winning at
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: the end of the first five, which I know is
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: kind of an ass because their offense is terrible. Biby
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: notoriously has not been getting good run support this year either,
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: which I don't know. I don't know how much weight
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: to really put into that type of thing, but that's
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: just been the case with him. He got a ton
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: of run support last year and this year he's got
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: He's getting very little seventy percent of the tickets and
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: cash on Cleveland, so the money is we don't really
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: see where the actual money is necessarily right now. It
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: looks like Cleveland's a public side though, so that kind
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: of scares me from Cleveland as well. But to me,
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: I mean, Biby should be able to outpitch Brat at
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: the very least. All right, White Sox in Tampa Bay.
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: The White Sox are coming in for beating the Yankees
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: the last two games, So the White Sox might be in.
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: A bad spot here.
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: It could be a letdown spot, but they are starting
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: a road trip, so starting a road trip usually is
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: a focused spot.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay still has.
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: The best record in the American League, even though I
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: don't think they're as good as the Yankees.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: But yeah, so it's hard to figure out, like, are.
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: The White Socks gonna be in a letdown spot after
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: those huge games against the Yankees. Are they going to
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: still be focused on Tampa Bay and because they're starting
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: a road trip, is this still kind of a positive
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: spot for the White Sox. It's hard to say, although
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: what's easy to say is that the White Sox do
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: not have a good starting pitcher going here. The starting
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: pitching looks like it's a huge mismatch favor of Tampa
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: Bay here. Tampa Bay played yesterday as well, they played
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: an after Both teams played an afternoon game yesterday. I'm
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: pretty sure, but Tampa Bay is staying at home after
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: they beat Texas yesterday, So Tampa Bay is in a
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: better spot here, and that they don't have to travel
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: and they're coming off a win, that's going to be
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: less likely to put.
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: Them in a letdown spot.
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: As far as what these teams did yesterday with the
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: bullpen usage, Tampa Bay used a lot of guys and
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: they kind of went with a bullpen game yesterday.
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: They used six guys, so that's not good.
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: The White Sox used for I think the White Sox
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: went into extra innings again against the Yankees, did they Yeah,
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: they did eleven innings.
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: So that's not great.
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: So that's part of the reason why Yankees and White
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: Sox have a little bit of extra usage out of
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: the bullpen's coming into today, but it's still not really
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: that bad. As you can see, Tampa Bay is ranked
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: third in bullpen at this point, third best whip, although
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: their ERA is right at four pretty much, so I
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: don't think they're really a top three bullpen, but I'll
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: give them that. They're like a top ten bullpen probably,
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: so they're a pretty good bullpen. The White Socks are
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: not that much worse at seventeenth, and they have a
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: better ERA, so I'll give Tampa just a slight bullpen
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: at you though, with the given that the rest scenario
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: actually kind of favors the White Sox out of the bullpen,
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: I think the bullpens are kind of a wash here.
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is seventh offensively tied with Miami, and the
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: White Sox are fourteenth, tied with Minnesota. Tampa has had
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: the better offense, which does sound kind of crazy if
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: Tampa's also good at home. As I keep pointing out,
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: they have one of the best home records in baseball,
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: so they tend to win when they're at home, and
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: as I alluded to, they're going up against a pretty
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: bad pitcher for the White Sox here Eric Fetti, and
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: I will again make you aware that he might not
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: actually start here, but he's probably gonna pitch. So I
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: think if we're gonna play this game, you should play
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: n play it as Nick Martinez must start for Tampa Bay,
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: but action on the White Sox side because Feedti is
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: probably gonna pitch here, but they might use an opener
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: in front of him. They've used an opener in front
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: of him repeatedly this year, so just keep that in mind.
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: Like I think Fetti will pitch, it's just not guarantee
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: that he's gonna pitch the first inning.
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: He's not that good though. Man.
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: He's got a four point twenty five RA, but a
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: one point four whip is not very good at all.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: He's been bad on the road.
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: Five point four roady RA not in good for him recently.
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: He's not going deep into his outings. Well, the White
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: Socks have actually won the last five games he's appeared in,
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: but he's been very mediocre for the most part in
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: these outings.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: Good strike out walk ratio, I'll give him that.
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: His command has actually been pretty on point here recently,
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: but he's a lot, a lot of home runs recently,
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: a lot of hits.
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: That's maybe a little bit fluky.
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: But you look at his overall numbers, I mean these
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: are not impressive. His hit rates too high, He's given
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: up a lot of home runs, his walk rate is
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: kind of too high, strike out rate is very low.
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: So as a fool anybody.
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah, obviously I'm not really a fan of Fetti here.
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: I mean I more often than not fade him. His
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: numbers against Tampa Bay are actually not terrible. They only
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: are four guys so faced him eighteen at bats two
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: seventy eight average, six forty nine ohps, five to one
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: strike a walk ratio, So they have hit him for
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: contact a bit, but they haven't hit him for any power.
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: But it's a small sample size.
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: And even though you might say, well, that means Fetti
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: is unfamiliar to Tampa Bay in a way like that
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: could give him an edge, I don't really think so.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's been around for so long and.
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: He doesn't fool guys, so I don't think that gives
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: him that much of an edge. Tampa Bay is going
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: with Nick Martinez, who I think is not quite as
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: good as his numbers look two point four five ERA,
• 41:45
  Speaker 4: one point one whip although those are really good numbers.
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: He's having a really good season here.
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: He's got a two point seven to eight home y ra,
• 41:53
  Speaker 4: so he's a little bit worse at home, but not bad.
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: He's coming off a six inning shutout of Cleveland, which
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: is good. Tampa Bay has won his life last six starts,
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: and he also pitched in the All Star Game and
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: did not suffer any setbacks after that either, except that
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: he had no strikeouts in a game against Toronto coming
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: out of that, which is I guess maybe a little
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: bit of a red flag. There had more of them
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: against Cleveland last time out. But yeah, he's pitching well
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: right now. He really has been all season. He's got
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: a pretty low hit rate here is walk rate's very low.
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: He doesn't walk anybody, but he also doesn't strike anybody out.
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: He induces a lot of flyball.
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: Outs, which is not necessarily good, but it hasn't really
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: translated into him allowing a lot of home runs though.
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: But yeah, he's.
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: He's got a low strikeout rate though he doesn't strike
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: anybody out. So the advanced analytics guys don't like him
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: because they're saying he's just given up too much contact.
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: But again, if he's been able to sustain this, like
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: there's something to that. If you're getting guys to just
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: constantly hint into soft contact, that does have something to
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: do with the way that you're pitching, right. They're just
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: not able to quite figure out how to connect with your.
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: Pitches, you know what I mean.
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: If that's consistent throughout a long period of time, you know,
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: I don't think that there's like a huge amount of
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: regression coming necessarily. There might be some for a guy
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: like Martinez. I already forget who we're talking about here.
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: He's going up against, oh, the White Sox. The White
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: Sox have had success against them. Only four of their
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: hitters have faced him though twenty one at bats, three
• 43:23
  Speaker 4: point thirty three average Ben and Tendy has a home
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: run against someone else is new eight to ten OPS two,
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: zero strikeout walk ratio. So my first instinct here was
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: I like Tampa Bay because I think they have the
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: pitching edge possibly throughout this game. Kind of look into
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: it a little bit more. Those matchup numbers are not
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: exactly great. So yeah, I don't know, I don't know
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: what to do with this. The money is coming in
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: on Tampa. They're up a little bit from the open
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: or at minus one forty nine, they're in the minus
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: one fifties. Here now, Tampa's public, eighty five percent of
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: the tickets, ninety three percent of the cash on them.
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: Looks like the money's coming in a little bit towards Tampa,
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: even though the also public, and the money's coming in
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: on the over.
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: Maybe the over is the way to look at this game.
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: Martinez has bad matchup numbers against the White Sox. Fetti
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: and company are just not really that good in general.
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: Maybe that's the way to look. I mean, the matchup
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: numbers actually favor Fetti over Martinez, believe it or not.
• 44:19
  Speaker 4: But I don't think I would do that. I mean,
• 44:20
  Speaker 4: I think I might still slightly lean Tampa Bay. I mean,
• 44:23
  Speaker 4: it just looks like, on the surface, it looks like
• 44:26
  Speaker 4: it's a big mismatch the favors Tampa Bay. Although as
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: I told you, I dug into the numbers and it's
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: not that much of a mismatch even given even with
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: those matchup numbers, though it's a small sample size, I
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: think I still tilt the scales a little bit towards Martinez.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, I don't know. It's a tough
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: game to figure out.
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: Maybe the over makes a little bit more sense than
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: anything else there, like I said, but yeah, I don't
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: want to deal with it.
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: I told you I don't like this board today.
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: Miami and New York, the Mets, these two teams did
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: play yesterday, and we got the under correct in the
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: game yesterday. It would have been easier in the verse five,
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: So my mistake, I guess. But we still got the win,
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: and it should have been easier than it was. The
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: Mets put up two with two outs in the eighth inning.
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: Lisa didn't go into extras though, and totally screw us.
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: The Mets only used two relief pitchers yesterday, but they
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: did use Williams for the second straight game. Like I said,
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: so he's their closer. He'll probably be unavailable today. Miami
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: used three relief pitchers. These are two good bullpens. Miami's
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: fifth and the Mets are sixth. So yeah, they're two.
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: I don't think they're quite that good, but they're two
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: pretty good bullpens. Here offensively, Miami's ringing seventh, tied with
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay. I don't really think Miami's that good offensively,
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: though the Mets have struggled all year the twenty eighth
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: offensively and without Wan Soto at this point, so yeah,
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: not great for the Mets here offensively. Jansen Junk is
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: pitching for Miami and this one so yeah. I mean,
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: looking at this pitching matchup, needless to say, I don't
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: really want to come in and try to play an
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: under in this one. Junk he looked good in at
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: the beginning of the season, but he's He's what his
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: name tells you.
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: He's a Junk pitcher.
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: He's just very mediocre four point eight ninety RA one
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: point three to six whip for him, really bad on
• 46:12
  Speaker 4: the road six point three to one Rody Ray. So
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: he pitches better in the Marlins more pitcher friendly ballpark.
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: He's struggled recently, man, since he came back from injury.
• 46:21
  Speaker 4: He hasn't looked particularly good. I had one really bad
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: outing against Houston in there, but he's not going deep
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: into his outings. They might be kind of keeping him
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: on a pitch count. He's also walked too many guys,
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: so kind of and he's given up too many hits too,
• 46:33
  Speaker 4: so kind of a concern. There overall in the season.
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: His hit rates too high, his walk rate is not
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: too bad. His strikeout rate is kind of low. So yeah, again,
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: just mediocre stuff across the board here. Hasn't been good
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: against the Mets, though it's a very small sample. Seven
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: at bats, three hitters have faced him. They have a
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: four to twenty nine average, eight fifty seven ops without
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: any extra base hits, one strikeout, no walks.
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't really think junk is gonna do
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: particularly well here. We'll see, I guess.
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: And Freddy Peralta's pitching for the Mets. He's not on
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: my not on my nice list right now. He's been
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: bad from the Mets this year. Man way worse than
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: he was on Milwaukee. He's just I don't know, bad
• 47:16
  Speaker 4: environment for him, bad team. Maybe he's not motivated.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the deal is.
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: Four point nine to ninety ray, one point four to
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: eight whip that's not good. He is better at home though,
• 47:25
  Speaker 4: four point one homey Ray. He's been bad recently though.
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: He's not going deep into any of his recent outings,
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: not pitching particularly efficiently at all. He's throwing a ton
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: of pitches in these short outings. Because he's walking a
• 47:38
  Speaker 4: ton of guys. He's striking a lot of guys out too, though,
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: so he's still fooling hitters. But he's been extremely wild
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: and that's been part of the problem. But he's also
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: been too hittable, which throughout his career that hasn't really
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: been his issue. He's usually not that hittable, but he's
• 47:52
  Speaker 4: been way too hittable this year. And he's also been
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: even more walk heavy than he usually is. Like, usually
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: he's kind of walk heavy, but this year has been
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: kind of extreme. Definitely too many walks. His strike out
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: raid is decent on the season, so he does still
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: have strikeout stuff. He's giving up a decent amount of
• 48:10
  Speaker 4: home runs as well, which isn't really that great. But yeah, overall,
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: he's not that trustworthy and he has not been good
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: against Miami in the past.
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: Sixty one at bats to seventy.
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: Nine average, eight eighty four ops, fifteen to six strikeout
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: walk ratio.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: None of those numbers are really that good.
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I think the over is probably the way
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: to play this one. I know the bullpen's are all right,
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: but of course I don't I don't really limit the
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: overs to the first five. Like, I think, if the
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: game is gonna be high scoring, it's gonna start early,
• 48:38
  Speaker 4: and then it's gonna cascade into early bullpen usage, and
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: then you're not gonna get the best relievers in there,
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean.
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: So I think if.
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: It's gonna go over, it's probably gonna go over in
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: the full game. If the if the like, if the
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: starting pitchers do bad, I think it kind of just
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: affects the whole game, is what I should say. And
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: the money looks like it agrees with me on that one.
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: Sixty six percent of tickets are on the under. I
• 49:00
  Speaker 4: don't really think the public's coming in and playing an
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: under really year, because they usually don't play unders. But
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: seventy nine percent of tickets on the earth, seventy nine
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash excusing on the over. It's an
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: eight and a half. So the numbers right there in
• 49:11
  Speaker 4: the middle in no man's land. So it's like the
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: oddsmaker's basically just telling you do what you want with
• 49:17
  Speaker 4: this number.
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: We don't really think it's going to be particularly low.
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: Scoring or high scoring, and the money is back in Miami,
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: sixty three percent of tickets, sixty percent of the cash
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: on the Mets at minus one thirty something here, although,
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: like I said yesterday, the Mets did win yesterday, and
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: like I said, if the Mets are favored by that
• 49:35
  Speaker 4: much against a Miami team that has a better record
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: than they do, the oddsmakers are kind of telling you
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: something like they think the Mets are the better team
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: in this matchup, you know. So to me, it seems
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: like the public would actually come in on the other side, right,
• 49:48
  Speaker 4: Like junk actually has slightly better looking numbers than Peralta,
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: So you'd think that the public would actually play Miami, Oh,
• 49:54
  Speaker 4: they're the better record, with the slightly better pitcher, and
• 49:57
  Speaker 4: getting them as an underdog. So I don't know if
• 49:59
  Speaker 4: I with that market read which is indicating on Miami
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: here as the dog, I think maybe the Mets might
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: make a little more sense there. The Peralta has bad
• 50:08
  Speaker 4: matchup numbers here in a much bigger sample size, so
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: that's not a great thing.
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think the better way to play that is.
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: The full game over, get both teams to contribute there
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: to that over all, Right, Washington Atlanta we got to
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: push yesterday with Washington in the first five.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: I'm still pissed.
• 50:25
  Speaker 4: About it because they're up three to one in the
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: bottom of the fifth and I first looked and it
• 50:29
  Speaker 4: was three to one in the fourth. I'm like, we're
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: looking good here, baby, And then it gets to the
• 50:33
  Speaker 4: bottom of the fifth, I'm like, let's go, and then
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: they wind up. Irvin gave up two runs in the
• 50:38
  Speaker 4: bottom of the fifth. I'm pretty sure Irvin was still in.
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: Maybe he wasn't. I don't want to besmirch his name.
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: If it wasn't him. But yeah, then Atlanta wound up
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: winning the game.
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: So, like I said, at least it still means the
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: better play was the first five though, but we should.
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: Have won it. Now.
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: Atlanta won that game that was the start of the
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: series yesterday. Atlanta has a significant bullpen advantage, although they've
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: had a lot of usage recently because they played two
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: games on Wednesday and then they used four guys yesterday,
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: and those four guys have all pitched two days in
• 51:08
  Speaker 4: a row. So this bullpen rest scenario is not great
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: for Atlanta. They're still better than Washington out of the bullpen.
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: Washington only used two guys out of the bullpen yesterday,
• 51:17
  Speaker 4: though one of them was pom Quist, who they kind
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: of uses an opener, so that I would say that
• 51:22
  Speaker 4: kind of negates Atlanta's bullpen advantage a little bit, but
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: not entirely. Atlanta's the number two bullpen and whip, although
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: they're the third best er behind the Red Sox and
• 51:32
  Speaker 4: the Yankees.
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: I think that's still the case, right.
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: The Mariners are pretty close, and I think maybe the Brewers,
• 51:38
  Speaker 4: but yeah, I think that is still the case.
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: With the Braves.
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: Washington's bullpen, you definitely want to avoid them, like I
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: did yesterday. They blew the game yesterday. They're twenty six,
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: they're eras five. Not a good bullpen.
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: You might argue that you want to avoid both bullpens
• 51:53
  Speaker 4: in this one. With the current state of things, Washington's
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: number one offensively still right now, slightly ahead of the Dog,
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: and the Braves are ninth, tied with Houston's. These are
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: capable offenses here. The Washington is a very good offense
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: on the road. They're a very good team on the road,
• 52:09
  Speaker 4: and Atlanta is a somewhat weaker offense at home than
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: they are on the road. And that might come into
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: play here because Atlanta has to face Foster Griffin here
• 52:17
  Speaker 4: and he's really been like the only good pitcher in
• 52:20
  Speaker 4: Washington's rotation. He's been shockingly good this year from basically
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: out of nowhere, and it's sustained for the whole season
• 52:26
  Speaker 4: two point seven to six ERA, or at least up
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: to this point. I mean, I don't want to go
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: you know, completely crazy here because Griffin, I know, he's
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: kind of a veteran in that he's thirty one, but
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: he hasn't pitched that much in the major so he's
• 52:39
  Speaker 4: still throwing way more innings than he ever has before,
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: like not even close. You do have to worry about
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: his innings count. So that's what I'll say later in
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: the MLB season here with these starters, when they're throwing
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: way more innings than they're used to throwing, they could
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: have like a bit of a drop off, So just
• 52:56
  Speaker 4: be aware of that. Although for Griffin, I don't think
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: it's gonna happen yet. He's got a two point seven
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: to six ERA one point zero three whip and at least,
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: you know, I think Griffin, he's probably been like in
• 53:07
  Speaker 4: the minor league systems for most of his careers, So
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: I don't know how long their seasons are, but it's
• 53:12
  Speaker 4: probably better than just being you know, a young guy
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: fresh out of college and whatever and really not being
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: used to throwing that many ages. With Griffin, whatever, he's
• 53:20
  Speaker 4: had a great season. He's been good on the road.
• 53:23
  Speaker 4: Two point six y three Roady ra pitching well again.
• 53:26
  Speaker 4: We won with the first five with him, I.
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: Think two starts ago, maybe is that what it was.
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: Did I played against the A's I don't remember, but
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: Griffin's been or maybe it was the last outing against Arizona,
• 53:37
  Speaker 4: but whatever, Griffin's been good Man overall. That that Arizona
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: game is the first time he'd allow more than one
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: run in a start since late May. So he'd allowed
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: one or zero in run in every start since then
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: up or he'd allowed exactly one and most of them
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: up until that Arizona starts. Still pitch fairly well there though.
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: Those strikeout rate is kind of low right now. But
• 54:00
  Speaker 4: he's got a fairly low hit rate, his walk rates
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: very low. He doesn't put guys on base via the walk.
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: He's got a pretty good ground ball rate, so he
• 54:07
  Speaker 4: gets guys to ground out a lot, and he's got
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: a a strikeout rate that's not too bad. Yeah, I mean, Griffin,
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: he's been surprisingly good Man and He's been good against
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: the Braves as well, in thirty nine at bats two
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: of five, average six eighty ops nine to two strikeout
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: walk ratio against them.
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: He's faced them twice this year.
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: One was a sixth inning shutout here in Atlanta in
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: late May. Good start from him there, three hits, six strikeouts,
• 54:31
  Speaker 4: one walk.
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: At home. He was a little bit.
• 54:34
  Speaker 4: Worse against him back in April the first time he
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: faced them, went six innings, a lot of three earn
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: runs in that one on five hits, three strikeouts, one walk.
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: Still that qualifies as a quality start, though, I'm pretty sure.
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: So yeah, two quality starts from him against the Braves
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: so far, good numbers against them.
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: He'll be going up against.
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: Bryce Elder, who I think is the lesser of the
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: two pitchers here. Elder is a bit all over the
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: map here. He's got a three point nine to six
• 54:58
  Speaker 4: one point two to five whip not bad overall numbers,
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: and he is better at home three point three to
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: one home he ra two thirty eight upon a batting
• 55:06
  Speaker 4: average at home.
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: He looks like he's been pretty.
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: Good this month, but his walk rate has been high,
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: so that's kind of a problem, you know. He hasn't
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: allowed that many runs this month. Kind of struggle that Pittsburgh,
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: though that's a good offense. Did better against San Diego,
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: but that's a bad offense. And then against an offense
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: that's kind of mid middle of the pack Baltimore, he
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: had a kind of middle of the pack type.
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: Of outing against them. Yeah, I mean, Elder he's a
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: little bit hard for me to predict. Really.
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: It looks like he's in decent form right now, I guess,
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: but his walk rate is worrying me.
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: Over the last few starts. He has a pretty low
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season.
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is really actually not that bad, and
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: his strikeout rate is low, doesn't really strike guys out.
• 55:49
  Speaker 4: But overall his numbers are not too bad against Washington,
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: kind of mediocre numbers here eighty six at bats, two
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: seventy nine average is a bit high. Seven oh p Yes,
• 56:00
  Speaker 4: isn't that bad. Twelve to five strike out walk raceio here.
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: CJ. Abrams has definitely hit him well.
• 56:09
  Speaker 4: And Luis Garcia Junior, those are the two guys with
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: more at bats and they've both done damage against him. Yeah,
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think the way to play this game
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: is probably Washington in the first five. I mean, I
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: think that's you can almost blindly play that with Griffin
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: on the Mount. I mean, I don't want to do
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: that because I want to see what the matchup numbers
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: are like and whatever. And I think I've only actually
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: given out a Griffin first five maybe like twice all year,
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: but he's it's been a good play with Griffin on
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: the Mount. Washington in the first five I think there,
• 56:40
  Speaker 4: I'd have to look it up, but I think they're
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: probably something like I would guess like fourteen and three
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: or something like that in the first fives with Griffin starting,
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: So yeah, they win most of those games. And in
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: the first five, I mean the bullpen blows it all
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: the time. So yeah, don't include Washington's bullpen, but yeah,
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: I would say Washington first five might be the best
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: approach this game. Atlanta's got sixty two percent of the
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: tickets ninety percent of the cash on Washington, so the
• 57:05
  Speaker 4: money is back in Washington here. It looks like a
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: strong market read on Washington. Atlanta's a favorite. They have
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: to be because they're the better team. They're around minus
• 57:14
  Speaker 4: one twenty something here, it's dropped from minus one thirty something,
• 57:18
  Speaker 4: so the money is indicating on Washington. The line move
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: is a reverse line move, you know, so when you
• 57:23
  Speaker 4: see the line move against where the public ticket percentage is,
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: that's usually a good indicator that the real money is
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: going against the public there, so a pretty good market
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: read to support Washington here. The money is also back
• 57:36
  Speaker 4: in the over nine, which it makes sense in a way.
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: I mean, the bullpens both might struggle here, given that
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: Washington is as bad and Atlanta doesn't have rest right now,
• 57:49
  Speaker 4: the starters might both pitch well, though, So I don't know.
• 57:52
  Speaker 4: If you're gonna go over, you should do a full game.
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: If you're gonna go under, you should do it in
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: the first five. That would be my opinion on this game.
• 57:58
  Speaker 4: But still I think the best way to play this
• 58:00
  Speaker 4: is definitely to take Washington in the first five and
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: you'll still get them as some sort of underdog, even
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: though it'll probably be a smaller underdog price. But you'll
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: probably still find at least a very very small price
• 58:12
  Speaker 4: to play it. So that's what I would say there,
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: all right, Texas and Houston is an Apple TV game here.
• 58:20
  Speaker 4: As we get into some of the later games here,
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: Houston is returning home from a road trip, which could
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: be a negative even though this is a big series. Though,
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: Houston just was in Chicago to play the White Sox
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: and then they just swept Anaheim, so they had a
• 58:34
  Speaker 4: very successful road trip. They only lost one game one
• 58:37
  Speaker 4: of the Chicago games on the road trip there. But
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: they're having to travel back from the Pacific Coast. Could
• 58:42
  Speaker 4: be a little bit difficult you return home. Like I said,
• 58:45
  Speaker 4: it's always a bit of a distraction. Even if you
• 58:48
  Speaker 4: can minimize it a little bit, it's still a negative spot.
• 58:50
  Speaker 4: You got to get back to home life, whatever. But
• 58:52
  Speaker 4: they might be able to minimize it here because they're
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: not really going to overlook Texas. I mean, Texas is
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: ahead of them in the Al West by a half
• 58:59
  Speaker 4: game right now. This is a battle man in the
• 59:02
  Speaker 4: AL West, which ian Texas, Houston, and Seattle. They're all
• 59:05
  Speaker 4: right in the thick of it right now. Any one
• 59:07
  Speaker 4: of those teams could win the division.
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 59:11
  Speaker 4: Texas, it's a big series for them too, because they're
• 59:13
  Speaker 4: barely hanging on to this lead here.
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: They're coming in from Tampa Bay. Maybe a bit of
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: a better spot for Texas here.
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: But Texas played yesterday and Houston didn't So this is
• 59:22
  Speaker 4: another one of those scenarios, like I said with Toronto,
• 59:24
  Speaker 4: where you have the home team has the rest advantage
• 59:27
  Speaker 4: here because they didn't play yesterday and the other team did.
• 59:30
  Speaker 4: But the home team is returning on from a road trip,
• 59:32
  Speaker 4: which is a negative. So the MLB does this all
• 59:34
  Speaker 4: the time. I don't think they think about it that way,
• 59:37
  Speaker 4: but they just think, well, when this team is traveling,
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: we're gonna give them an extra day of rest to
• 59:40
  Speaker 4: get the travel done, you know what I mean. So
• 59:42
  Speaker 4: it works out that it makes my job more difficult
• 59:45
  Speaker 4: because you get spots all the time.
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: Oh, teams are turning on from a road trip. I
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: want to fade them.
• 59:50
  Speaker 4: Oh shit, but they have a rest advantage, so maybe
• 59:53
  Speaker 4: I don't really want to fade them, you know. So
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: you get stuff like that going on here. So I
• 59:58
  Speaker 4: think the spot might favorite Texas a little bit. But
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 4: I don't like the way they're bullpen's and pitching recently,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 4: and they use a.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: Lot of guys.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 4: Yesterday they use five while Houston was off, So I
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 4: don't think Texas has a bullpen advantage here, even though normally,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 4: like if this was last year, it would be like
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: obvious that Texas has a bullpen advantage against Houston, but
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: I don't think that's the case right now. Texas is
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: eighteenth in bullpen. They have not been pitching well right now.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 4: I would not trust them. Houston's been a little bit
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 4: better recently. There's sixteenth out of the bullpen. On the
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 4: course of the season after a very bad start. Houston's
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: ninth in offense, tied with the Braves and with the Giants. Actually,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: Giants had another offensive explosion recently, and I'm still not
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 4: buying it.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna keep saying that. Man, I'm stubborn. And then like.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 4: The Giants will either like have a game, they'll just
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 4: have these outlier games and they put up like fifteen
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 4: to twenty runs in a game, and then the next
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 4: like five games.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: They'll score like three or fewer, you know what I mean.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 4: Like that doesn't mean their offense is actually good just
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 4: because they have these flute games where they put up
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 4: like twenty runs. Anyway, Yeah, it's very very ridiculous. But
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: any we're talking about Houston here. Houston is ninth, Yeah,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 4: tied with those teams in the offensive category. So Houston
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 4: is the better offense here. They're gonna have to go
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 4: up against Nathany Evaldi, though he's.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: A pretty good starter.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 4: Four point zero five ERA, not great, definitely not as
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 4: good as he was last year, and he's getting up
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 4: there in age, but one point one seven whip is
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 4: still pretty good. So he's been getting tagged for home
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 4: runs like That's been his main issue this year is
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 4: the ball is not staying in the yard with him,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 4: which is kind of bad given that he pitches in Texas,
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 4: which is a pitcher friendly ballpark.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: But his whip.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 4: Indicates that he should have a bit of a lower
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: ray than he does. He's been a little bit better
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 4: on the road ray wise, three point nine to eight ROADRA,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 4: but his opponent batting average is actually higher on the road,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 4: So some mixed indicators there, but he doesn't really have
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 4: extreme splits there home and road. He's coming off a
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 4: really good start against Seattle. He had kind of a
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 4: bad start against Atlanta prior to that, was good against
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: Anaheim the start before that, So both those good starts
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 4: recently were at home. He was actually fine against Detroit
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 4: at the start before that as well. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 4: I would say he's he's in decent form recently. He's
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: strung together like a good basically month and a half
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: at this point here for the most part, with one
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 4: actual bad start in the in the middle of it. There,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 4: He's got a fairly low hit rate on the season,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 4: a low walk rate. He doesn't walk anybody. He still
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: has his strikeout stuff, so he's still fooling guys, So
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 4: he has his stuff. It's just the home run rate
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 4: is really high, and I don't fully understand it, especially
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 4: because he's not a flyball pitcher, like he has a
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 4: really even ground ball flyball rate, so the home run
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 4: rate just doesn't make any sense to me.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: And I keep saying that he keeps allowing home runs.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: I don't get it. His numbers against Houston are not
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: very good.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: They have a ton of at bats against them, one
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: hundred and ninety eight at bats, forty eight strikeouts, twenty walks.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 4: That is not a good ratio to eighty three average
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 4: eight eighty nine oh pr. So they've hit him pretty
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: well in a huge samples. This is not a great
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 4: matchup for Vivaldi here. Houston is going with Hunter Brown,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: and Brown is the much younger pitcher, so he's got
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 4: more upside here than Evaldi does. He's a very talented picture,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 4: but it's just that he's been completely out of control
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 4: since he's he's trying to come back from injury here.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: He's been really good over the last couple of seasons.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: With the injury comeback seems to be affecting him, but
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 4: he still has his stuff. The problem is he's been
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 4: walking a ridiculous amount of guys.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: So if he can fix that, he's gonna be good again.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 4: He's got a three point four five ERA one point
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 4: two eight whip that's not even bad. He's been bad, well,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 4: not bad, but he's been worse at home four point
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 4: three to two homy ra. But again, it's been the walks.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 4: For whatever reason, the walks have been a major issue
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 4: for him, specifically at home and not so much on
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 4: the road. He's still not allowing a lot of hits
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 4: at all, so he's still tough to hit. He's still
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 4: striking a lot of guys out. He just had a
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 4: really good outing last time out at the White Sox.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: He completely shut them down. Seven inning, two hit, shutouts,
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 4: seven strikeouts, no walks. In that whenever he'd walked a ton,
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 4: he'd walked fifteen guys in the prior three starts, but
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 4: he walked zero in his most recent start, so maybe
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 4: he's figuring it out again coming back into form. The
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 4: walks definitely worrying me a bit though, He's again he's
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 4: been pretty unhittable. He's got a good strikeout rate. The
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 4: walks are just insane right now.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: Too many walks. Can he get that under control? Yeah? Maybe?
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 4: I mean, his last start looked really good. He's going
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 4: up against the lineup that isn't the best in Texas,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 4: and Texas has not hit him well in the past
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 4: ninety seven at bats to sixteen average six't eighty four ohps.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 4: Although still too many walks here twenty seven strikeouts twelve walks.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 4: I I mean, I think I still kind of lean
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 4: Houston here though, given the matchup, but I don't like
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 4: I'm almost never gonna back a team returning home from
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 4: the road, though, unless there's really some insane reason to
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 4: do so.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna do that here.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 4: Although Houston does have the rest advantage here, and I
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 4: think they have the better pitcher on them out and
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 4: at this point they probably have the better bullpen too,
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 4: so you might be able to just play Houston in
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 4: the full game here, they're in the minus one thirties,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: minus one twenties.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: Actually, maybe they've actually dropped from.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 4: An opener of minus one thirty six, so there actually
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 4: has been some reverse line movement that looks like some
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 4: of the money's actually back in Texas here sixty percent
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 4: of ticket, sixty eight percent of the cash on Houston.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 4: So I don't love that Houston looks public here. Don't
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 4: love that they're returning go from the road. Definitely a
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: stay away game for me. Pretty much the entire board
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 4: is a stay away from me today. But yeah, just
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: giving you all the info here, all right, I'll do
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 4: one more game before I take the usual break, I guess,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 4: and then I'll be back Kansas.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: City and Colorado.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 4: So this is Zach against Dirty Sock here, with your
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: two terrible baseball teams having to go up against each other.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 4: Colorado is returning home from a road tripl THO. It
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: was kind of a quick road trip. They had a
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 4: weird two game series.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: In San Diego. I don't know what that was.
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 4: So they're coming back from Milwaukee and San Diego, a
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 4: five game road trip, still a road trip. There's still
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 4: been away for basically a week and I believe they
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 4: had yesterday off, so it's still road trip return. Kansas
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 4: City is not exactly a team you're gonna be focused
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 4: to play, Like, how do you get excited to play
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 4: Kansas City? You know, so after having a bad road trip,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 4: I don't think it's really like a bounce back spot
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 4: for Colorado. Here the return home spot is usually a
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 4: negative more often than not, even though it was a
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: bit of a shorter road trip, I don't like that
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 4: spot still. Kansas City's coming in from playing against Minnesota,
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 4: but I don't like the spot for them either because
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: if you saw what happened, they played yesterday, so they're
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 4: a rest disadvantage. So again we have a home team
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 4: returning home from the road with a rest advantage, so
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 4: a negative and a positive for the home team, but
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: Kansas City they have an additional negative. Or if you
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 4: saw what happened yesterday, it was ridiculous.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: They had a three.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 4: Nothing lead with two outs and nobody on base. In
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 4: the bottom of the ninth Kansas City did and they
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 4: had Strom, their closer in there, who I think used
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 4: to be on Philadelphia.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: He blew the game with a three nothing lead, two
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: outs and nobody on base. He blew the whole thing.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: He loaded the bases and then Cody Clemens. So I
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: believe his Roger Clemens's son walk off Grand Slam. Completely ridiculous,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: absolutely insane. So Kansas City after a loss like that
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: in a divisional game where they thought they had that win,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: could be a bad spot for them.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 4: Man could be a bit of a hangover spot for them.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 4: Now they have to go into Colorado.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: Oh god.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 4: However, Kansas City does have their best starting pitcher pretty
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 4: much on the mountain in this game, though, so he
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 4: might be able to deal with the course field environment
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: and Kansas City only is Oh no, so I thought
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 4: it was you know it was strong. Yeah, Strom only
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 4: threw three pitches, So sorry, Strom gave up the Grand Slam.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 4: But he wasn't the guy that put all the guys
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 4: on base. It was Erkeg Howevererseg. However you're pronounce his name.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: He's the guy that jammed the basis, So it wasn't
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 4: all on Strom. My apologies when you saw the video.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 4: Was Strom who was pitching, and he gave up the
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: Grand Slam, but he wasn't the guy that gave up
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 4: all the other base runners, So my mistake it was
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: a combination of both of their faults.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: Kansas City's bullpen sucks in general. Man, all right, they
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: all suck.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: How about that Minnesota used or sorry, we're not talking
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 4: about Minnesota. We're talking about Colorado. They didn't use anybody yesterday.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 4: But these are these are totally untrustworthy bullpens.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: He can't back these bullpens.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: Colorado twenty seventh, Kansas City thirtieth, dead last. So the
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 4: A's BULLPENI array is still worse, and they gave it
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: up again against the Red Sox yesterday. Prenslock's taking a
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 4: full advantage of their bullpen advantage in that series against
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 4: the A's. But Kansas City's a bullpen is almost as bad.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 4: Hitting wise, Kansas City is nineteenth, Colorado's fifth, So Colorado
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 4: does have the better offense here. But Kansas City's going
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 4: with Michael walk He's a solid starter for them, man,
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 4: really like the only one that they have. Three point
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: six e r one point one to seven whip solid.
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 4: He's had a solid career.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: He is worse on the road though, four point seven
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: e RRA, so he still pitches well at home. Even
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: though they moved the walls.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 4: In He's a little bit worse on the road, although
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 4: I know this is course field, so this is one
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: of the worst road stadiums you can be. And Walker
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 4: has been in good form recently though. He actually he
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 4: went into the All Star Game and pitched in the
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 4: All Star Game and it actually turned him around, which
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 4: is interesting. So he was pitching poorly going into the
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 4: All Star break for a couple of starts, and then
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 4: I think because he's a veteran and whatever, because he
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 4: had some rest in there, he completely turned it around.
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 4: He's pitched well in his last two starts, and he
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 4: was pitching well before those couple of bad outings too.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate, doesn't allow a lot
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 4: of hits, doesn't really allow a ton.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: Of walks either.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is decent, strike out rate is definitely low.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 4: He hasn't strike guys on. One thing that might concern
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 4: you is that he does allow a lot of fly balls,
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 4: and that's not great in course field. That many home
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 4: runs this year. Kind of a mediocre home run rate here,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 4: but maybe not good for pitching a course field. And
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 4: I went back and tried to see what his history
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 4: is in course field, he hasn't pitched there. I went
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: all the way back through twenty twenty one at least,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 4: because it's difficult to actually find those numbers in one place,
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 4: because ESPN makes you look at a year per year.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 4: Yahoo will it claims that they give you the full
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 4: numbers that they kind of don't.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: But all I know is that he is not pitched
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: in course field.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: Going back at least as far as twenty twenty one,
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 4: he hasn't pitched here. I assume he must have pitched
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 4: here somewhere though, because he used to be in the
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 4: National League whatever, And I don't know how well he's
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 4: pitched in course field. What I can tell you, though,
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 4: is he does well against Colorado their current lineup. In general,
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 4: Walker's been good against them in twenty seven at bats
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 4: one eighty five average, allowed five thirty eight ohps five
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: to one strike a walk ratio. But most of this
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 4: was probably outside of course field, though it's probably him
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 4: pitching at home against them. Do what you want with
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 4: all that info, but Walkam might be able to pitch
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 4: okay here. Colorado's going up against Tomoyuki Sugano, who the
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 4: advanced analytics guys they hate this guy. They hate Sugano man,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 4: because he strikes out nobody, and if you look at
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 4: Baseball Savant and whatever, he has the biggest disparity between
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 4: actual era and expected era. Like his era isn't even
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 4: really that good at four point sixty nine, but his
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: expected era according to Baseball Savant, which is based on
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 4: how many bats do you miss? Like he pitches to
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 4: contact all over the place, he expected erara is probably
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 4: like close to seven. But dude, I take all that
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 4: with kind of a grain of salt, like I don't
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: think that his era should actually be seven, you know
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 4: what I mean, Like, yeah, there's probably room for regression here,
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 4: but he keeps pitching and inducing soft contact. Man, he's
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 4: done that for two years now in the majors, and
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 4: his whip isn't that bad at one point two nine,
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 4: So I kind of I split the gap a little
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 4: bit there, Like I don't put all my shit into
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 4: Baseball Savant in the advanced analytics because I think the
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 4: math guys are kind of gay anyway. I'm more of
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 4: a situational guy, But with baseball, I'm still old school,
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 4: and I'm I'm asking how many guys you're actually putting
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 4: on base over a long span, you know what I mean.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 4: And so Goana, we thought he was gonna be ass
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 4: going to course field. I mean, he's a pitcher that
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 4: gives up a lot of fly balls. It's like, yeah,
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 4: he's gonna sucking course field. But that hasn't been the
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 4: case for this whole season. So I mean, if you're
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 4: gonna argue with all the with all those numbers, I mean, okay,
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 4: I mean, I guess it's not a huge sample still,
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 4: but he has a four point one to five homi
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 4: are race. So he's been better at home than on
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 4: the road, and he is continuing to pitch capably at
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 4: the very least. He has a couple of bad starts
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 4: in here, but the really really bad.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: Ones recently have been on the road.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is too high, I'll admit that, more
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: than one per inning.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 4: That's not good. His walk rate is pretty low actually,
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: though he doesn't really walk guys. His strikeout rate.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: Is definitely very low.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 4: Like I said, Baseball Savant tells you he doesn't miss
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 4: any bad.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: He doesn't fool guys.
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 4: He's got a very high fly ball rate and it
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 4: has kind of translated into home runs. He's a lot
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 4: of bunch of home runs, twenty of them, which is
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 4: not a good rate. But besides, I mean, he's just
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 4: not putting a lot of guys on base in addition
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 4: to that, so the home runs haven't really completely crushed
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 4: him here, and he's it's just ridiculous that he has
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 4: a ten to four record though, pitching on this Colorado
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 4: team that can't win games, and he's not even a
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 4: good pitcher really, and he has a really good record.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: It's just crazy. Man.
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 4: As numbers against Kansas City, they're all for eleven often,
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 4: they have three guys who have faced him, and they're
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 4: all for eleven with two strikeouts.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: So that's what you got going on with that.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 4: They I don't think they've really faced him for a
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 4: full game really yet. I mean, this game, it sounds insane,
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 4: but I think the first five under might be a
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 4: way to look at this.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: Money doesn't agree.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 4: He's seventy three percent of tickets on the under, fifty
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 4: eight percent of the cash on the over. The full
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 4: game totals eleven. I mean, it's a it's a cores
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: field game and one of the pictures is Sugano, so
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 4: you know the total is gonna be pretty high. But
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 4: maybe that's disrespecting. Walk a little bit and walk them.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: He's like, actually a pretty good pitcher, you know so,
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 4: and Sugano has been able to pitch capably, and they
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 4: both have decent matchups here.
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: Obviously I would.
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 4: Avoid the bullpens completely if you're gonna play the under here.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think under.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 4: Verse five maybe could be a look in that one
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 4: man in Colorado returning home from the road with a
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 4: day off might silence their offense a little bit.
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: In Kansas City.
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 4: Notoriously, their offense has been very bad on the road,
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 4: although you know, course field might cure that to some extent,
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 4: but maybe not.
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: So that's what I think about that game. Well, and
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: the side.
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: You got, basically a pickham price Colora case c excuse me,
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 4: came out as a favorite.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, walk them.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 4: Maybe he deserves to be a favorite on the road
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 4: here in a Maagin up like this, but the money
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 4: seems to kind of men towards Colorado, and it's kind
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 4: of shifted the money line a little bit. So Kansas
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 4: City is a much smaller favorite than where they open, well,
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 4: not much smaller, but smaller. Sixty five percent of ticket,
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 4: sixty four percent of the cash on case, so the
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 4: money's back in Colorado. I don't think I would do it.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 4: Colorado still return home spot and not good. I know
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: they have the rest advantage, but I'd probably still lean
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 4: Kansas City in the first five there. Waka is the
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 4: better of the two pitchers still, So all right, I'll
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 4: be right back, and then I'll talk about the rest.
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: Of these including the A's going under at home.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 4: I'll mention that when I talk about the A's game,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 4: this is a long video today. Still gonna talk about
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 4: WNBA as well, but I'm not gonna have a whole
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 4: lot to say there.
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: I'll be right back.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 4: Inside, I want to kill myself. We were on OWN
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 4: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 4: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show. Horrible
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 4: sun day one in five. I don't even know what
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 4: to tell you about that. I just don't want to
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 4: do this anymore.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 4: Man with the slump continuing two straight losses, not a
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 4: good day at all.
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: Own four that have not had a good season.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 4: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on and the
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 4: slump continues, I've.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: Reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: browins hat Man, I don't know what is going on
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: with the Bruins. Arch eight? Is that what it is?
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day it
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: is anymore. I don't even know what day it is anymore.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 4: Man, Back with you after the worst day that I
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 4: can possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: Until I die at least oh and two yesterday and
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: yesterday it did not go well for me. Own five
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: the worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: you about this anymore. Slumpy spcons The slump continues. Somebody
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: should do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 4: All right, Yeah, next game is Milwaukee and Anaheim. I
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 4: think both these teams are off yesterday.
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: Anaheim is staying at home.
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 4: They just got swept at home by Houston, so maybe
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 4: a bounce back spot for them.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: They're the way worse team here.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee clearly the better team here and the better starter.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 4: On the mound of though, you're gonna have to pay
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 4: a big price if you want Milwaukee here. Milwaukee's coming
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 4: up an embarrassing sixteen to three loss to San Francisco,
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 4: which Drohan, who actually I forgot. I think Drohan was
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 4: actually part of the Kyle Harrison trade. I think the
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 4: Red Sox traded him along with Harrison. I forgot about that,
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 4: and both of them have pitched well, though Harrison's hurt
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 4: right now. Yeah, Milwaukee, they got embarrassed by San Francisco
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: in the last game, one of those freak San Francisco
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 4: huge run outputs there. That's because Milwaukee went with a
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 4: bullpen ish game there. They called some guy up who
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 4: I guess is one of their starter prospects, and he
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 4: didn't pitch that much in the game and it was
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 4: just a disaster. So Milwaukee might bounce back from that.
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: They're probably gonna be in bounced back mode after that.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 4: And that was in San Francisco. So Milwaukee is staying
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 4: on the Pacific coast at least, so neither team has
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 4: to make a time zone adjustment here. Neither team played yesterday,
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 4: so both teams have rest. Milwaukee has the bullpen edge here,
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 4: they're twelveth, though I think they're like a top five bullpen.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 4: I would say Anaheim doesn't hit well at home either.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: In Anaheim's twenty second with their bullpens, they're obviously way
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 4: worse than Milwaukee. Milwaukee is sixth in offense. They're better
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 4: offensively than the Angels as.
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: Well, the Angels twenty fourth, and like I said, even
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: worse than that at home. Starting pitching also goes to
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee here with Trohan on the mound still after he
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: got pushed back a start.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 4: ESPN is still like not, we don't know what you
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 4: look like, dude, no picture for you. He's got a
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 4: three point five to one ERA one point two whip
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 4: pretty good here, three point one sixty RA on the road,
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 4: so he's been a little bit better on the road,
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 4: although opponent batting average is actually a little bit higher
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 4: on the road. Struggled a little bit in his last
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 4: outing against Colorado theyugh kind of got unlucky. Had good
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 4: command numbers there still, but like everybody that he that
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 4: he put on base just happened to score in that one.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 4: He's pitching pretty well still. His command numbers look really good.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 4: Over the month of July here he's got a low
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 4: hit rate on the season's.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: Walk rate's fairly low.
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 4: Strikeout rate is right at one per inning, which is
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 4: pretty good as well. Yeah, he is getting the job
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 4: done for sure. He's going up against an Anaheim lineup
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 4: that he should be able to take care of, and
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 4: they've never seen him before, so that's an extra advantage
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 4: to the young pitcher that's unfamiliar to the offense, going
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 4: up against a pretty weak offense like this. I think
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 4: Drohan should pitch well here. Anaheim's going with Ryan Johnson,
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 4: who does not have good numbers so far. He's very
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 4: young though he's twenty three. I think this is his
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 4: first season in the majors. Seven point three four y
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 4: arra one point.
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: Five to four whip.
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 4: I think, at the very least you could say, I
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 4: keep saying it, he's not quite this bad and he
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 4: might improve, right because these young guys they get out there,
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 4: they might be a little bit shake He actually did
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 4: pitch last year out of the bullpenal, though things didn't
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 4: go well last year either. I look at what he's
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 4: done this year so far. He's been better at home
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 4: four point nine to five home. He array with a
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 4: much better opponent batting average two twenty one. So he's
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 4: been reasonable at home. He's coming off a really bad
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 4: road start at San Francisco, but now he's at home
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 4: where he's pitched a little bit better. He was actually
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 4: okay in his prior to starts. To that, he's been
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 4: a little bit all over the map, dude. He's had
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 4: some decent starts in here, some actually good starts in
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 4: here too, and he's had some bad ones. He's got
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 4: high hit rate though, so that's kind of a problem.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 4: Is walk rate is mediocre, I would say, not great.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 4: Strikeout rate is not great either, it's a little bit low.
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean I don't really like any of
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 4: those numbers really, and the home run rates too high too.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: Johnson. I mean, for me, he's kind of a wait
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: and see. We're gonna wait and see what Anaheim does
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: with their Johnson. Yeah.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 4: I don't know what else to say, but I would
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 4: trust Drohan more in this matchup.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: Obviously.
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 4: Johnson basically hasn't faced Milwaukee before. Somehow, Andrew Vaughn has
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 4: faced it once, I guess probably last year in one
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 4: of those relief appearances or whatever. He's zero for one
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 4: against him, but yeah, will the unfamiliarity help Johnson maybe
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 4: because he's unfamiliar he's a young guy. But I think
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee wins this game. Can you really pay this price
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 4: for it?
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: Though? I don't know. I mean, they're they open.
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 4: To minus one sixty eight. A couple of the books
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 4: have it higher minus one seventy. DK looks like they're
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 4: at minus one eighty one. I don't know about that
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 4: minus one sixties though. They look like a public side.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 4: Ninety percent of the tickets but ninety five percent of
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 4: the cash also on Milwaukee. I don't really have much
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 4: on this game, man. I mean, I think Milwaukee should
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 4: win this game. I think they have the advantage in
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 4: every aspect of this game. It's just a matter of
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 4: can you really pay this price? I mean, obviously you
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 4: can get the price down by laying a run with them,
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 4: like making a minus one run line or whatever. I
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 4: don't know what the price will get down to if
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 4: you do that, but at least if you do that,
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 4: or some sort of or one and a half run
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 4: line or something, at least they they'll give you all
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 4: nine innings of at bats because they're the road teams.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: So you could do that.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 4: Maybe that's the way to play this game is to
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 4: find some sort of run line way to play Milwaukee here.
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 4: I don't really have much else on this. The money's
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 4: coming in on the over nine as well. In that one,
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 4: I'm not sure I really see that, because I think
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 4: you have good pitching on one side and bad pitching
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 4: on the other. I mean, I guess you could also
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 4: look maybe towards Milwaukee over their team total here just.
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: To get but I don't. I don't think I like
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: that as much because.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 4: There are some question marks, and there were Maybe the
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 4: offense will struggle a little bit because day off yesterday
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 4: plus facing a pitcher they at least haven't seen before.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 4: But I think when all is said and done, all
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 4: the advantages that Milwaukee has should kind of should wind
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 4: up resulting in them winning. But we'll say, snoop, what's
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 4: up man, Thanks for hanging out, Thanks for having me
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 4: on both of your shows. Man, we should do it
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 4: again sometime. That's the pick is in podcast.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: And here's the thing.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 4: Is that what your other show is. Yeah, check out
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 4: those shows, everybody, and then nobody's listening to me here.
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: So whatever, All right, Detroit.
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 4: And as as I pointed out, the As Red Sox series.
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 2: Every single game in that four game series just.
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 4: Went under the total in this bandbox stadium in Sacramento
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 4: that the a is playing, and they had only done
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 4: that one other time since they've been playing in this stadium,
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 4: which has been since last year. The Aas have only
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 4: had one home series where every game went under the
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 4: total and it was against Kansas City earlier this year.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 4: And Kansas City can't hit on the road. So that's
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 4: actually interesting because Kansas City is in a similar stadium
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 4: today in course Field, So that tells you Kansas City
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 4: has not taken advantage of these better hitting ballparks like
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 4: they did, at least they didn't when they were in
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 4: the A's stadium. So if that's any indication of will
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 4: Kansas City fixed their offensive woes on the road by
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 4: being a course field, maybe not, because they didn't do
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 4: it at the A's. But that doesn't speak well of
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox because the Red Sox just failed to
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 4: put up runs against the A's.
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: They won the series, but barely. They struggled in every game.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 4: Every game was close, so the bullpen advantage, like I said,
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 4: loomed large for the Red Sox in that series. They
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 4: pretty much won that series on their bullpen advantage there.
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: But yeah, the A's, it was crazy.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 4: That was a four game series to the one against
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 4: the Royals was a three game series. So yeah, that
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 4: was the only time the A's have ever had a
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 4: four game series. All of them go under in this stadium,
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 4: which is pretty insane. Anyway, the A's are staying at home.
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 4: They got Detroit coming in.
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: Detroit.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 4: Looks like they might just start selling off Man because
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 4: they've lost four of their last five games. They just
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 4: lost another series to Baltimore. Schooble didn't do well. They
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 4: lost ten to nine schoolble. Probably the trade rumors swirling around,
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 4: maybe that got to his head.
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 4: Now Detroit has to go on the road and start
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 4: a road trip, and sometimes that is a positive starting
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 4: a road trip, but there are Central Time Zone team
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 4: going up west and playing a late game, and I
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 4: talked about how that can mess with your biological clock.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 4: Although they do have one day of rest here to
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 4: try to adjust to that, but maybe that's not enough.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 4: But Detroit does have a rest advantage here, so I
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 4: should have said that they're at a travel disadvantage, but
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 4: a rest advantage.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: Because the A's played yesterday. Will that be enough? I
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: don't know, man.
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 4: With Detroit looking like they're potentially starting to sell off
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 4: over the weekend here and packing it in that might
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 4: have been Schoobl's last start with Detroit. Maybe the headspace
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 4: is not good, like when you know you're definitely gonna
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 4: become sellers at the trade dunlom, which I don't think
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 4: they should to be honest, Like, I think Detroit's good
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 4: enough that they could still do something in this bad
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 4: ale central here. But whatever, man, it seems like they're selling,
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 4: So that's that is what it is.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: Although we don't know for sure.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 4: Yet but probably the A's used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: They have a guy named Scott blew It in their bullpen.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 4: By the way, that tells you the state of things
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 4: in the the A's bullpen because he blew it partially yesterday.
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: He was one of the guys that bluw. Medino was
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: the guy that really blew it.
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 4: He gave up the back to back home runs yesterday
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 4: for the Red Sox from a bray You and Contreras
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 4: that won the game in the eighth inning. But whatever, anyway,
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 4: A's bullpen's bad. Detroit's bullpen is better Detroit's nineteenth and
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 4: bullpen and.
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: Their eras below four.
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 4: The a is twenty eighth and they have the worst
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 4: bullpen in RAS, so they suck. The A's have the
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 4: bat offense here the ranked twelfth tie with the Yankees.
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 4: Detroit is seventeenth, so they're like middle of the pack
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 4: here offensively. On the surface, this looks like it should
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 4: be a matchup that favors Detroit here. You're having to
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 4: pay a huge price for it, though, But Casey Mize
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 4: is pitching for Detroit. He's having his best season of
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 4: his career here two point seven e RA point nine
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 4: to nine whip. He's only a little bit worse on
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 4: the road three point oh seven roady RA. He's pitching
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 4: well recently as well. Pretty much had a weird shortened
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 4: start against Anaheim, but had a nice bounce back starting
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 4: against Kansas City, although he got no run support and
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 4: lost the game anyway, so Detroit hasn't really He didn't
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 4: take the loss, but Detroit lost. They've been giving him
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 4: little run support recently.
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: Not his fault.
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's got a low hit rate, low walk rate,
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 4: reasonable strikeout rate, here. His numbers look good for pitching
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 4: in the A's stadium. He definitely gives up a lot
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 4: of fly balls, but he has not allowed a lot
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 4: of home runs at all, so he does the ball
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 4: in the yard. Only five home runs allowed in the
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 4: eighty six to two thirds innings. That's not a high
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 4: home run rate at all, So maybe he will be
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 4: okay in the stadium.
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: Even though he does tend to give up a lot
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: of fly balls flyball outs.
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 4: His numbers against the A's they actually hit him well though.
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 4: In nineteen at bats, seven hitters have faced him three
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 4: sixty eight to average, seven to sixty eight ohps, two
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 4: to one strike.
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: Out walk ratio.
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 4: So I started looking into this game thinking maybe the
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 4: A's were going to be a play here because they
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 4: at least have a rest advantage. I know they're having
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 4: to mess with their biological clock in the first game
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 4: out west here, but there are just too many things
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 4: I worry about, like not just the biological clock, but
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 4: miz has bad matchup numbers here, the trade rumors circulating,
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 4: whatever might affect their mental state. So I can't do it.
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 4: But just when I first looked at this, I'm like,
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 4: oh yeah, miz is way better than the Springs, especially
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 4: Springs pitching in this a stadium. So my first reaction
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 4: was I might be on Detroit here, but everything that
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 4: I said just keeps me totally away from this thing.
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 4: And the price is also not very good. Jeffrey Springs
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 4: is pitching for the A's. He's not having a good
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 4: season six point two to three e RA one point
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 4: four or five whip.
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: He's worse at home.
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 4: Like I said, I mean, it makes sense because this
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 4: stadium sucks. Springs has actually been good on the road, well,
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 4: he was last year. He was good on the road
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 4: last year. This year not so much. But either way,
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 4: he's still way worse at home six point seventy nine home.
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 4: He with a much higher opponent batting average as well.
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 4: Springs was really bad last time on the road at Minnesota.
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 4: He didn't even get through the second inning there, or
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 4: the second inning, and he pitched I think.
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: He started, I don't know.
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 4: Two of his last three starts have been really bad,
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 4: actually three of his last four. Actually, let's just say
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 4: most of his recent starts have been bad. He's only
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 4: had like two decent starts since the beginning of June.
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 4: So yeah, he's not pitching well. His hit rate is high,
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 4: his walk rate is okay. He's given up a ton
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 4: of home runs, which is part of the reason why
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 4: he's so bad at home. He has one of the
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 4: highest home run rates in baseball. He's an extreme fly
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 4: ball pitcher. That's not good, so he's not good in
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 4: this stadium. His strikeout rate is really low as well,
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 4: so he doesn't fool hitters against Detroit here.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: His numbers are actually not that bad.
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 4: And believe it or not, if fifty one at bats
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 4: to sixteen average seven thirty four ohps is getting a
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 4: little bit higher, though to that seven to fifty threshold,
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 4: they have some home runs off him.
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: Torkolsen has two.
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 4: Of the three, though thirteen to eight strikeout walk ratio
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 4: also not good. I don't know, man, I mean, this
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 4: game is not too easy to figure out here.
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: I think maybe over.
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 4: Might be the way to play this one. The money's
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 4: back in the under, which doesn't really make sense to me.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 4: Eighty percent of the tickets, ninety percent of the cash
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 4: on the under. The totals at eleven. It's gone up
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 4: a little bit from ten to a half to eleven.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 4: It's gotten to eleven. I don't know, man, Yeah, I
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 4: mean over.
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 2: Makes more sense to me.
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 4: Like, I don't think either pitcher is necessarily totally trustworthy
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 4: in this particular matchup here, it brings somehow has the
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 4: better matchup numbers.
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: I don't know how, but I would not want to
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: back the a's here.
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 4: If you're gonna try to back the a's, do not
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 4: do it in the full game because they're bullpen is horrible.
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 4: We have eighty five percent of tickets, ninety four percent
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Detroit. They're in the minus one
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 4: sixties or they open in the minus one sixties.
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: It's gone down a.
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 4: Little bit into the minus one fifty range in some places. Uh,
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 4: the line looks like it's kind of all over the
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 4: place there. I mean, my first instinct was a lean
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 4: towards Detroit, but you'd have to lay like a run
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 4: line here, and based on the matchup numbers, I don't
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 4: really want to do that on them. My should be
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: able to outpitch springs, like, I don't want to overrate
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 4: the matchup numbers, like I think I tend to do that,
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 4: but some of it depends on what the sample size
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 4: is as well. Maybe Detroit on the run line makes
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 4: some sense here, but I don't want to do it,
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 4: like I said, for all the reasons I already mentioned.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 2: Oh thank you sir.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 4: All right, yeah, you can invite me back man, depending
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 4: on my schedule. Yeah, I mean, I'll definitely come back
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 4: on maybe especially we could do it as you know,
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 4: for previewing football and stuff like that, because football is
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 4: coming up soon too.
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: All right, Apple TV. We have San Francisco and San Diego.
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: This is a long show this morning.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 4: We have a full baseball slate plus WNBA, and I
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 4: only have one play out of all of this. San
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 4: Diego lost to San Francisco yesterday four to one. Could
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 4: be a bounced back spot.
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: It wasn't a return home spot yesterday, but after losing
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: at home, that was that was yesterday, right, yeah, yeah,
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: after losing at home.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 4: Yeah, maybe San Diego is kind of in a bounced
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 4: back spot here. San Diego has got the better bullpen here.
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 4: San Francisco used three guys out of the bullpen yesterday.
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 4: San Diego used two and they used Randy Vasquez who's
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 4: a long relief man. So San Diego rested all their
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 4: better relievers yesterday. They got the bullpen edge. Here, they're tenth.
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 2: Right now, San Diego.
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 4: Is I think they're like a top five bullpen probably
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 4: though San Francisco should be better than they are, but
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 4: they've struggled. They're twenty third out of the bullpen right now,
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 4: both offen. San Diego's office has definitely struggled. They're twenty fifth,
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 4: but I still don't like San Francisco's even though they're ninth,
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 4: tie with Atlanta and Houston. I still don't buy it.
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 4: Just another explosion from them from out of nowhere. The
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 4: other day, we're in San Diego here man, which is
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 4: a pitcher friendly park, so I think sane. San Francisco
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 4: is not gonna have as much offense going on in
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 4: this series. Although this pitch a matchup is really hard
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 4: to figure out. San Francisco is gonna go with Carson
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 4: wizen Hunt here. He's a young pitcher. He pitched last
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 4: year a bit and struggled. It was his first season
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 4: in the majors. Didn't do that well. He's not really
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 4: a huge strikeout guy. He pitches to contact, So the
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 4: advanced analytics guys definitely are not gonna like him. There's
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 4: gotta be something to him if they think that he
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 4: can pitch at the major league level, and they keep,
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 4: you know, putting him out there, although it's I guess
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 4: they maybe don't have other options. Right now, he's got
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 4: a four point sixty RA this year, one point four
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 4: whip is not very good though he's only made restart
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 4: so far. He's been better on the road, kind of
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 4: three point six roadier, but his opponent of batting average
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 4: is higher.
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: On the road. It was only one road start.
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 4: It was his first start at Atlanta, and it wasn't
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 4: too bad. Yeah, I mean his starts overall, he's just
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 4: walked way too many guys. I mean that's really what
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 4: his issue has been. His hit rate's been okay, his
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 4: walk rate is too high. Strike out rate is okay
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 4: right now. As far as what he's done this year,
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 4: San Diego's still never seen him before, so he does
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 4: have that advantage, so he might pitch okay against them
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 4: given that they haven't seen him before. Now, I also
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 4: don't know if he's gonna start in this game, So
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 4: I think, if you're gonna play this game, I don't
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 4: think we know if either of these listed starters are
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 4: really actually gonna start the game.
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: So if you're gonna play this game. You might want
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: to just play.
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 4: At action just in case, because San Diego is going
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 4: with Bradly Rodriguez. And I think I didn't finish my thought,
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 4: but wizenm Hunt being unfamiliar to San Diego might give
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 4: him a little bit of an extra advantage here. But
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 4: I don't think I want to trust him Bradually Rodriguez
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 4: for San Diego.
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: He's a twenty two year old. No idea who this
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 2: guy is. I might have to look him up.
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 4: I guess he pitched out of the bullpen last year,
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 4: and he had really good numbers. That looks like out
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 4: of the bullpen last year, some very short stints there.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: Though.
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 4: He's made three starts this year, which I don't remember
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 4: any of them. But he's actually pitching well, So this
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 4: guy looks like he actually has good stuff. He's got
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 4: a two point three to three RA one point one
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 4: seven whip that's good, a good strikeout rate.
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 2: This season. I think he's been an opener.
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 4: I think that's why I don't remember him at all,
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 4: Like those starts I think were openers, so actually I
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 4: would be aware he's probably gonna be an opener here.
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 4: Like I don't think he's actually a starter. I think
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 4: he's a bullpen arm that just comes out there and
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 4: throws like one really really good inning most times, and
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 4: then he gets out of there.
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 2: I think that's pretty much what he does.
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate though, low walk rate,
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 4: high strikeout right, But yeah, I think this is a
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 4: bullpen game.
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's actually a starter. You never know.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 4: The guy who's twenty two, they might switch it up
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 4: and start switching him to a starter. But yeah, I
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 4: think that also bolsters my thinking that you should just play.
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 4: If you're gonna play this game at all, you should
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 4: make it an action play, because no idea if either
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 4: of these starters is actually gonna start, or if you're
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 4: just gonna see them at some point during the game,
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 4: you know whatever. It looks like Rodriguez will be the
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 4: opener here, and then I don't know who san Diego
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 4: is bringing in behind him. It's not gonna be Canning
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 4: because he pitched the other day, But who the hell
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 4: is san Diego gonna pitch? Then I handicapped all this
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 4: last night and they had not announced the starter yet.
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 4: So five games ago they used JP sears, but he
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 4: pitched last night and Vazquez actually kind of opened that
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 4: game he pitched last night too, so it's not gonna
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 4: be them either. So I don't know what San Diego
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 4: is doing here. It might be a bullpen game for
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 4: them here, and they've both been is good and it's
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 4: somewhat rested here. I don't know, man, this game is
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 4: unbelievably unpredictable. I don't even know where to begin with
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 4: this game. This is one of the most unpredictable games
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 4: that I've seen recently. Totals in eight and a half.
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 4: The money's coming in a little bit on the over,
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 4: although the over is also public. Money is also backing
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 4: San Diego a little bit. Eighty three percent of tickets
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 4: ninety one percent of the cash on them minus one
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 4: forty something is the price on them. I mean, maybe
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 4: you could back San Diego just in then maybe they
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 4: should bounce back after yesterday and just if you're gonna
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 4: get a lot of bullpen usage throughout this game from
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 4: both teams, that should give San Diego an advantage because
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 4: they have a better bullpen plus the bounce back spot,
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 4: maybe that's the way to look us to look tourt
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 4: San Diego.
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 2: Money line.
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 4: Maybe if you can get it a blow minus one fifty.
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 4: I have no good read on this at all, and possibly,
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 4: I guess maybe an over because like the pitching just
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 4: doesn't look like it's gonna be the best that you're
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 4: gonna see in that game.
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: But I don't know.
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 4: You never know, like this, a bullpen game like this,
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 4: like San Diego is doing, could actually do well. So
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 4: I have no idemn but I think I trust wizen
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 4: Hunt a lot less though. All right, Boston in La
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 4: here Red Sox and Dodgers. Dude, I had Red Sox
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 4: fans because you know Red Sox. Twitter definitely gets into
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 4: my feed a lot and I follow some of those people.
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: But yeah, Red Sox.
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 4: Everybody was complaining, like the Red Sox got to get
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 4: out of Sacramento, man, like this is not going well
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 4: in Sacramento, and yeah it wasn't until though they won
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 4: three out of the four games.
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 2: Against the A's. But I'm like, you realize who they
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: have to play next? Right?
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 4: You want them to get out of Sacramento and go
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 4: play the Dodgers?
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 2: Is that what you want? Good luck? Although in this game.
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox should have a starting pitching edge in
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 4: this one, so they at least they're drawing a bullpen
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 4: game from the Dodgers here, so at least there's that
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 4: going for the Red Sox here. I thought it was
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 4: gonna be Yama Moto, but the Dodgers much have pushed
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 4: Yama Moto back a start. The Red Sox are still
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 4: gonna have to face him in the series, but I
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 4: guess at least they get to face a bullpen game
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 4: here and Yama Moto.
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 2: Got pushed back. Red Sox have the best bullpen in
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: baseball right now.
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 4: They're tied for the best ERA with the Yankees, number
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 4: one in Whip as well.
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: Dodgers are eighth. Dodgers are definitely.
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 4: A capable bullpen, but it looks like they're going with
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 4: a bullpen game here. Dodgers are obviously the way better offense,
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 4: ranked number two right now, and the Red Sox are twentieth.
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: Red Sox have been.
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 4: At least getting better offensively, although that A's series that
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 4: was not a good offensive performance given what stadium they
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 4: were in.
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: Not good.
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox used three relief pitchers yesterday, I believe, oh, no,
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 4: only two, my mistake, but Chapman came in for the
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 4: second straight game, so he's probably unavailable here.
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: You don't want to overwork him.
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 4: Man, He's an old man, but he's still pitching pretty well,
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 4: although he seems to always be putting guys on base
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 4: and then getting out of that gym.
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 2: He likes to scare you before he puts the game away.
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't like that at all. Man.
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 2: I want I want my closer to be lights out.
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: But whatever.
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 4: Ryaner Suarez is pitching this game for the Red Sox.
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 4: He came back to make his last start, so he
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 4: was on the injured list. He had a groin issue.
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 4: He came back in his last start. It was a
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 4: little bit of a shorter start, but he looked pretty
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 4: good in that one. He's been good this season. Three
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 4: point oh two ERA, one point one fan. He's been
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 4: good for like three seasons in a row, but this
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 4: is his first season with Boston and he's actually been
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 4: better on the road to two point five to five Roady,
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 4: that's good. He had a four inning shutout with four hits,
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 4: no walks against Toronto in his return from his injury.
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 4: Looked good in the start of the Toronto's offense sucks,
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 4: but yeah, that was in Fenway.
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 2: And you look pretty good. So they're probably gonna let
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 2: him go a little bit longer here.
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 4: They were kind of rebuilding him, like they only had
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 4: him go sixty four pitches there and they'll let the
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 4: bullpen handle the rest of it. And the Red Sox
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 4: won the game. But yeah, Suarez will probably go a
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 4: little bit longer in this game unless he.
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: Gets knocked out of the game.
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 4: But that might be a concern here because he is
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 4: facing a really good lineup overall. His numbers are really
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 4: good here though, low hit rate, low walk rate, high
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate, good stuff across the board here, except he's
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 4: not good against the Dodgers. They have one hundred and
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 4: one career at bats against himcause of course he was
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 4: in the National League with Philly. Dodgers have a three
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 4: seventeen average, nine to nine oh ps, twenty one to
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 4: seven strikeout walk ratio against, so he's been bad against
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers.
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 2: A few of these guys really.
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 4: Hammer him, Mookie Betts, former Red Sox player, they never
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 4: should have gotten rid of Freddy Freeman. Those two guys
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 4: do the most damage. So if you're looking for hits
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 4: plus runs plus RBI's player props to go over.
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 2: That's what I recommend.
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 4: I recommend finding a guy that has a decent sized
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 4: sample against the starting pitcher and going with him there.
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 2: LA is going with ed Gardo Henriquez here.
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 4: He's a bullpen arm so, like I said, they're going
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 4: he's good, but they're going with a bullpen game here,
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 4: so I think he's gonna pitch the first inning or whatever,
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 4: and then the Dodgers are just going bullpen game here.
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 4: You never know what that's gonna look like. Man, it
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 4: could be successful, maybe not. The Dodgers are favored, but
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 4: they're not favored by that much. They're in the minus
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 4: one twenty range here. Red Sox are getting the money
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 4: sixty one percent of tickets, eighty six percent of the
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 4: cash on the Red Sox. I think the feeling from
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 4: the professionals is probably that, well, you're getting like a
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 4: pretty capable starter here for the Red Sox going up
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 4: against a bullpen games. That should give the Red Sox
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 4: the advantage here. Plus they do still have the bullpen
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 4: edge as well, although it's gonna be the bullpen all
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 4: game pretty much for the Dodgers here. And yes, I
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 4: generally I'm old school, so I like to fade the
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 4: bullpen games. Sometimes it doesn't work out too well, but
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 4: in this one, I'm not gonna do it because the
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 4: Red Sox Suarez doesn't have good matchup numbers here.
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 2: I think if I was gonna play this.
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 4: Game, I would probably play the over, even though I
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 4: know the Red Sox just had a bunch of low
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 4: scoring games in one of the most over friendly ballparks.
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 2: I don't know. This game looks like there is gonna
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 2: be more offense coming in this game.
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 4: So given what we just looked at there, as far
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 4: as what the matchup looks like, and whatever eight and
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 4: a half is the total, it's a reasonable total. Hasn't
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 4: really moved fifty to fifty on the tickets on the
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 4: total seventy five percent of the cash on the over,
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 4: so the money is backing the over there. I tend
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 4: to agree with that one. And then we have Minnesota
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 4: in Seattle. Looking at the starting pitching matchup here, it
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 4: looks like it's a big advantage for Seattle, but.
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 2: When you dig into it a little bit, eh, maybe
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 2: not so much.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 4: Seattle is returning home from a road trip, so that's
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 4: not good. They went to Texas and the Dodgers and
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 4: I believe they played yesterday.
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 2: If I'm not mistaken, let me say yes. Seattle used
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: two relief pictures.
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 4: Including Hopa Alex Hoppa love his writing man and his
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 4: political stuff. Seattle's returning over from a road trip, which
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 4: I know I always point out it's a negative.
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: You return home from the road. You got to get
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 2: back to home life.
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 4: They had two big series on the road against Texas,
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 4: who's leading their division right now, and then they had
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 4: to play against the Dodgers, so it's going to be
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 4: difficult to return home from that and play a Minnesota team.
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 4: It's probably not going anywhere, so it could be a
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 4: bit of a spot where Seattle overlooks their opponent. They
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 4: get distracted having to get back to home life. At
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 4: least they're not traveling across time zones here, but it's
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 4: still not a good spot for Seattle here, So I
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 4: don't like the spot for them. Minnesota is starting a
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 4: road trip off of being Kansas City yesterday. Of course,
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 4: they did it in dramatic fashion with that Clemens walkoff
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 4: grand Slam, which I believe the last walk off Grand
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 4: Slam in Major League Baseball was in like twenty eighteen
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 4: or something. I think is what I saw on ESPN.
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 4: It's a rare event that seems I would think it
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 4: wouldn't be quite that rare, but I guess it is. Anyway,
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 4: Minnesota's in the better situational spot here because they're starting
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 4: a road trip, could be a focused spot.
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 2: Both teams played yesterday.
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 4: Minnesota's bullpen is way worse, though they use three guys yesterday.
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 4: Seattle's a much better bullpen. Seattle's ranked eleventh. I think
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 4: they're like a top five bullpen, though Twins are one
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 4: of the worst. They're twenty ninth. I think they're a
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 4: bottom like five bullpen.
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 2: Probably.
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 4: Minnesota has been better offensively than Seattle. Their fourteenth tied
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 4: with the White Sox. Seattle's struggled with all seasons so far.
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 4: They're twenty seventh. Really have not gotten their offense going.
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 4: Seattle's going up against Zebbie. Matthews is pitching for the
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 4: Twins here. He's still a pretty young guy. He's got
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 4: some talent, but his numbers just kind of all over
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 4: the place. Five point two to one RA, one point
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 4: three to two, whip not that not that good, and
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 4: he's been way worse on the road. Seven point five,
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 4: eight road e RM, so he pitches way worse on
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 4: the road, although he's actually way better at night. I
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 4: don't usually look at the day night splits, but his splits.
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 2: Are extreme everywhere.
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 4: So he's gonna be on the road here, but he's
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 4: pitching in a pitcher friendly park and it is gonna
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 4: be at night, so.
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 2: You know, maybe that.
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 4: Will counteract the fact that he's terrible on the road.
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 4: But he is terrible on the road. Seven point five
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 4: eight ROADYRM was decent, and his last sounding against the
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 4: AA has held him to two runs at six eighties.
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 2: We only had one strikeout, so that really concerns me.
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 4: And the fact that he has an eight plus ERA
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 4: this month and a thirteen to twelve strike a walk
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 4: ratio this month in addition to twenty four hits a
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 4: lot in nineteen two thirds innings.
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's not good.
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 4: He's not pitching well right now, so I don't really
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 4: trust Zebulon with the way that he's pitching right now,
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 4: although I guess he's maybe trending back in the right
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 4: direction after that last start.
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 2: He's got exactly one hit per inning, very mediocre. His
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 2: walk rate is kind of mediocre as well. His strike
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 2: up rate is actually not even really that good. I
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 2: thought he was a better strike up pitcher than that.
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 4: I feel like I say that every time I breaked
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 4: out his numbers. I keep forgetting that. But yeah, his
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 4: numbers across the board not really that good. A home
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 4: run rate is kind of high as well, though maybe
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 4: that would be not a huge issue in Seattle. His
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 4: numbers against Seattle, they've hit him well. Only five of
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 4: their heroes have faced him though thirteen at bats, but
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 4: they've done a lot of damage against him three eighty
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 4: five average, twelve to seventy five ops, three to one
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. So Zebulon has not done well against Seattle.
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 4: I'm leaning more towards him not pitching too well here.
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 4: Bryce Miller is pitching for Seattle. He's had a really
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 4: good season, although it's been a short season so far
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 4: because he came back from injury sometime like a couple
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 4: months into the season. He's been really good though two
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 4: point seventy five yar ra point nine two whip he's
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 4: been pretty much untouchable at home point nine to five
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 4: homey ra ridiculous with a really low one forty three
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 4: upon a batting average home as well. He struggled last
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 4: time out on the road against Texas.
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know what that was.
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 4: I think I broke down the matchup and he actually
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 4: doesn't have good matchup numbers against Texas.
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 2: Or whatever that was, I don't know.
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 4: But he's been a little bit worse recently. Seattle's lost
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 4: his last three starts. He's taken the loss in all
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 4: of them, and he's been not going as deep into
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 4: his outings yet.
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 2: He's struggling a little bit recently.
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 4: And it wasn't really against good offenses either, Miami, San Francisco, Texas,
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 4: but two of those are on the road, and the
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 4: least bat of them was at home, so it's gonna
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 4: be and it was against It wasn't against San Francisco though,
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 4: the worst offense in my opinion there, although I know
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 4: they're hitting better than I claim that they are. Whatever Miller,
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 4: though he is back at home here, I think he
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 4: might still be able to bounce back at some point here.
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate, a low walk rate,
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 4: high strikeout rate. Like all those numbers are good. Against Minnesota,
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 4: his numbers are very good. Twenty one at bats, only
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 4: seven of their hitters have face and it's not a lot.
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 4: It's only twenty one at bats five to one, strike
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio, own ninety five, average zone two to
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 4: seventy nine ops. I kind of like Seattle, man. I mean,
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 4: it feels like these return home spots.
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 2: I want to.
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 4: Fade these teams usually, but I like the pitching matchup
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 4: for like all of them except one, and I think
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 4: that does kind of matter a little bit. The money
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 4: looks like it is back in Seattle, but you don't
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 4: have to pay a huge price for it. Though eighty
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 4: six percent of tickets ninety three percent of the cash
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 4: on them, you have to only minus one seventy something
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 4: for it. The lines actually reversed moved against them. It
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 4: opened minus one to eighty six and then it dropped.
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 4: So that's an indicator there is some money playing Minnesota here,
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 4: and given that the totals seven and a half or eight,
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 4: money is coming in on the under as well. Given
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 4: all that and that it's a lower scoring game a
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 4: lot of times, the underdog does make some sense here.
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 2: However, despite the return.
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 4: Home spot, which I know is very bad, the matchup
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 4: just favors Seattle to me, like just throughout the pitching
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 4: everywhere throughout. The pitching in this game favors them with
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching and the bullpens here. I don't know, man,
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 4: I think if I was gonna play this, maybe I
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 4: would still lay like like make a minus one run
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 4: line of Seattle or something here, or maybe take Minnesota's
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 4: team total under and take them to just not score
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 4: against Seattle's pitching here. But then that worries me because
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 4: it's a low total, so you're gonna be looking at like,
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 4: if Minnesota scores three runs, you're gonna lose that bet probably,
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 4: So that's really really living life on the edge, you
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 4: know what I mean. So I think I would prefer
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 4: to like make up minus one run line of Seattle there,
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 4: but I don't want to do it.
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Again, I don't like this board today much at all. Dude.
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 2: I've only got one play here out of all that
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 2: and then WNBA I'm avoiding.
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 4: But we got three, yeah, three games here. I think
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 4: every team is now played out of the All Star breaks,
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 4: so we don't have to break down the momentum spot
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 4: anymore coming out of the break. But we have Seattle
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 4: at Atlanta sab like Seattle to cover here. I think
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 4: I agree with that, And if I was gonna play
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 4: any of the games today, I think it would be that.
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 4: Actually Atlanta's returning home from the road, but it wasn't
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 4: a road trip. It was only a single game on
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 4: the road in Dallas. It was a big game and
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 4: they won the game. Like I pointed out when I
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 4: broke down that matchup, the money was coming in on
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 4: Atlanta and that one, and Atlanta had the better defense,
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 4: and that's kind of what went out there. They were
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 4: able to slow down Dallas enough. Dallas has a high
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 4: powered offense and they go really fast. Atlanta was able
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 4: to kind of muddy up the game and win it.
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 4: But now they could put them in a letdown spot.
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 4: I'm not gonna say it's a return home spot really,
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 4: even though technically it is. But they weren't on the
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 4: road for very long. They only had one road one
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 4: game on the road in Dallas, so they weren't away
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 4: for very long. So they're not gonna have stuff that
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 4: they have to do at home and whatever. But I
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 4: think it's a sandwich spot because that was a big
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 4: win over Dallas. They're not gonna pay attention to Seattle.
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 4: They just played them here back on July ninth and
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 4: beat them by eleven, which I haven't looked into it.
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 2: I think it was a fairly easy win. They did
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 2: lose in Seattle prior to that.
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 4: Though, but they got a bigger game on deck on
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 4: Monday against Las Vegas, which is a big peacock and
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 4: NBC Sports Games that I think that's a look ahead
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 4: playing the returning champs. So yeah, I think it's a
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 4: sandwich spot that we have for Atlanta here.
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 2: And like I said, Atlanta is a bit more of.
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 4: A defensive team, so maybe it makes sense to maybe
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 4: look towards them not covering is a big favorite. The
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 4: total is somewhat high though, in the high one seventies
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 4: and the money. It looks like it initially drove the
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 4: number up a little bit, but now it looks like
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 4: it's all coming back in on the under though. So
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 4: if we're gonna get a lower scoring game, I think
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 4: that does help the cause of the underdog, even though
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 4: Atlanta does want to play like a lower scoring game.
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 2: I think Seattle's lost whatever.
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 4: This is seven games in a row they played against
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 4: Indiana out of the All Star breaking.
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 2: They lost by ten.
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 4: The game wasn't particularly close at the end, and now
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 4: they're starting a road trip having to travel across country
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 4: for it, but going west to east is easier to do,
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 4: and starting a road trip you might be focused, especially
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 4: because they lost the last time they were here.
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 2: So yeah, generally, yes, I like Seattle in this one.
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 4: I think it's the strongest out of the WNBA plays today.
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 2: I don't have it on my own. It didn't make
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 2: the cut for me. I don't know. I mean, I
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 2: didn't like any of these games enough to actually do it.
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 2: But seventy seven percent of tickets eighty one percent.
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 4: Of the cash on Seattle. It's weird to see the
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 4: public ticket percentage on them. You wouldn't think that, but
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 4: the numbers twelve and a half. It hasn't really moved.
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 4: It looks like the money might be also back in
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 4: Seattle there. So yes, I agree with SOB on that one,
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 4: But that one didn't make the cut for me. Maybe
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 4: I'm being way too selective here, but whatever, Dallas at Washington.
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 4: Washington just beat Connecticut the other day. We lost with
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 4: a play on Connecticut, which it was kind of an outlier. Man,
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 4: Washington wasn't as good in that game as it looked.
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 4: I thought it was a bad spot for them. But
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 4: part of that handicap was the Washington would be looking
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 4: ahead to Dallas, which I think they were. They won
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 4: the game by eight as six and a half point favorites,
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 4: and again it was a huge freak throw disparity in
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 4: the game and that's how Washington won. They went to
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 4: the line a ton and that's how they won the game,
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 4: and it skewed the game to be higher scoring.
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 2: I think it was bullshit.
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 4: Connecticut had more field goal attempts in the game by
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 4: double digits and still didn't cover.
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 2: So I'm pissed about that.
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 4: But Washington staying at home off of kind of I
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 4: would say, sort of a lackluster effort against Connecticut, they
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 4: might show up for this game against Dallas, even though
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 4: Washington wasn't as good as they looked in that game either,
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 4: But I think it was all about it not being
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 4: a good spot, and it was their first game out
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 4: of the break, and they had gone into the break
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 4: on a big note I think, beating Vegas, I think,
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 4: or coming within one point in Vegas, whatever it was.
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 4: Dallas in this game, they're coming off that big game
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 4: against Atlanta. It's one of these weird single game travel
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 4: spots to play in Washington. I don't know if they're
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 4: really going to focus on this game coming off that
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 4: big game. Not a Sandwich spot though, even though they
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 4: have an ESPN game next at home, but it's against Connecticut. However, Actually,
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 4: you know what, they might actually look ahead to that because.
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 2: Guess what that is ESPN. Oh no, that's at home. Miss.
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 2: If it was in Connecticut, I was gonna say that
• 1:54:07
  Speaker 2: would be like a home coming for Page Beckers and
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 2: as a fudd, they're two top draft picks over the
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 2: last two years who were in a relationship with these others.
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 2: They both went to Yukon, so that would be interesting.
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 4: They've already played in you in Connecticut though, and they
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 4: only won that game by three, So that game is
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 4: gonna be in Dallas. So yeah, I don't really I
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 4: don't think there's much weight to put into that. However,
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 4: I think Dallas coming up the big game over Atlanta.
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 4: I won't say they're gonna look ahead to Connecticut. They
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 4: probably won't because it's not in Connecticut, although it's ESPN game.
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 4: But yeah, this game looks like it might be kind
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 4: of a hangover spot, at least for Dallas. I'm gonna
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 4: leave Washington here. The money completely disagrees with me, though.
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 4: Dallas is laying three and a half seventy seven percent
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 4: of tickets on Washington sixty three percent of the cash
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 4: on Dallas though, So the money likes Dallas. I don't really.
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 4: It's another low total here. That's a Washington home game.
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 4: They play low scoring games, they play deep mets, and
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 4: they slow you down. I think that's another reason to
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 4: like Washington here as an underdog at home. That's like
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 4: their wheelhouse playing as a home underdog. They they are,
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 4: They're a style of team that covers as a home
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 4: underdog because they play slow and they play deepfense, and
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 4: Dallas doesn't want to play that way. Dallas wants to
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 4: play fast, and they're gonna have to play a second
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 4: straight defensive kind of crawl of a game like they
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 4: just did against Atlanta, So Dallas doesn't really want to
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 4: be in a game like that. I think Washington will
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 4: be able to slow the game down because the home
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 4: team can usually do that, and slowing the game down
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 4: is easier to do than speeding it up. But yeah,
• 1:55:43
  Speaker 4: the total is low in the one sixties, So yeah,
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 4: I like Washington to cover in that one, I'm not
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 4: gonna do it.
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 2: And then we have Indiana and Portland. I mean, this
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 2: is kind of a mismatch.
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 4: Portland's not even as good as their record looks, but
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 4: they've started to fall off a bit.
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 2: They're not good. They're an expansion team.
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 4: I think they kind of took some teams by surprise
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 4: early in the season, but now most teams have gotten
• 1:56:04
  Speaker 4: a chance to look at them at this point, and
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 4: now they're falling off.
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 2: Portland did just lose in Vegas. It wasn't close. They
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 2: lost by fifteen.
• 1:56:12
  Speaker 4: Now they're coming home from that not really a return
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 4: home spot though, because they're only on the road for
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 4: one game in Vegas, They're not really going to overlook Indiana.
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 4: I mean, everybody kind of gets up for Indiana because
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 4: the league.
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 2: The league hate the rest of the players in the
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 2: league hate Caitlyn Clark, so they all get up for it.
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 4: Indiana is coming up an easy win over Seattle. It's
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 4: a better travel spot.
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 2: For Indiana though, because they're going just from Seattle to Portland,
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 2: so it's an easier travel spot to make. However, Indiana
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 2: does have a huge game against Minnesota on deck over
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 2: the weekend on Sunday on ABC National TV. Game against
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 2: the best team in the.
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 4: League that has their best player back now call here.
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 4: And then after that they play Vegas, their returning champs.
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 4: That's a big game as well, though Indiana embarrassed Vegas
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 4: the last time they played them, but still those are
• 1:56:59
  Speaker 4: big games possible.
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 2: Look aheads there. Indiana's getting the money here.
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 4: They laying eight and a half on the road, sixty
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 4: four percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the cash
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 4: on Indiana. I don't love it though, you know, like
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 4: I said, it looks like Indiana is in the better.
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 2: Travel spot here.
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 4: But that look ahead would worry me if I was
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 4: gonna try to play Atlanta here. So I don't I
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 4: don't love the game. I might even slightly lean towards
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 4: taking the boys with Portland, but yeah, I don't want
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 4: to go against some market read like that, and there
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 4: are too many conflicting factors in that one.
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 2: So that's gonna do it. It's a Friday, it's a
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 2: big board, but we only got one game to go
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 2: with here, and it's one of these dreaded first five unders.
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's too obvious. Maybe I should worry about a
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 2: little bit.
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 4: But we're gonna take Pirates reds under the first five
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 4: total three and a half. Although, like I said, I'm
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 4: kind of waiting around because I think it looked like
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 4: you might be able to get a four on this
• 1:57:53
  Speaker 4: at some point, I would much rather at four. I
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 4: would kind of like it, you know, I mean I
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 4: do like it already. I mean I wouldn't give it
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 4: an as a play if I didn't like it.
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 2: We do have a four.
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 4: Now you have to pay a little bit for it
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 4: minus one twenty five. I think if that price drops
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 4: a little bit on it, maybe I would say do
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 4: it for Yeah. I mean I'll update the description for
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 4: what I wind up playing on it, But yeah, you
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 4: could play the four it minus one twenty five. You
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 4: want to pay a little bit extra juice. Every half
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 4: run matters in the first five. There's no key number. Really,
• 1:58:28
  Speaker 4: every number is pretty much key in the first five.
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 4: So but I like to starting pitching there. And that's
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 4: what I've narrowed it down to today. That's all I
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 4: got today. That's gonna do it.
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 2: Learn it ton in two hours for that Learn it
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 2: tone on Twitter, Learn it tone on Instagram. Like subscribe
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 2: to the channel here. I'll have some football.
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 4: Preview content coming up and whatever. I've already done a
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 4: little bit, but I might do an updated one for football,
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 4: just yeah, just to do it.
• 1:58:54
  Speaker 2: Whatever for NFL.
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 4: I haven't done a college football one yet, but subscribe
• 1:58:59
  Speaker 4: and then you'll get the notification just for that. We're
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 4: on Audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Check it out there every
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 4: everywhere you look, everywhere you look.
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 2: It helps me out.
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 4: Let's make it a full house here, a fuller house,
• 1:59:14
  Speaker 4: all right? What else I got to promote here covered
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 4: in you because my yuke channel on YouTube you covers.
• 1:59:21
  Speaker 4: I did another one.
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 2: Last night for the Narls Barkley.
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 4: I said thirty by Accident, twenty year anniversary of Crazy,
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 4: which wasn't actually I don't think it was the right date,
• 1:59:32
  Speaker 4: but whatever it was, it was fun to play it.
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 4: My voice isn't quite there, but check that out. Check
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 4: out my pageren paedron dot com, slash and learn a
• 1:59:39
  Speaker 4: toae if you want to throw me some support that way.
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 4: I need to get more Pagren content going, and like
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 4: I said, yuk chams, I definitely should do where I
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 4: just hang out and chat with people and play yuke
• 1:59:48
  Speaker 4: stuff and I might make the first ones just wide
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 4: open to the public to get people into it. I
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 4: gotta think of something, man, And you know, I could
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 4: start doing like live watch parties here or some games whatever.
• 2:00:00
  Speaker 4: So much content it'll feel like I have no free
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 4: time though, And I don't know, but I need income somewhere.
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 2: Man, it's not enough right now. What else I have
• 2:00:09
  Speaker 2: to promote?
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 4: Loser cast every Tuesday night and the New York Giants
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 4: g Spot podcast.
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it. Have a good Friday, everybody, happy weekend.
• 2:00:18
  Speaker 4: Let's have a good start to the weekend and get
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 4: a win tonight, and then I'll be back tomorrow with
• 2:00:22
  Speaker 4: Probably it's likely I'll have more than one play usually,
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 4: Usually that's likely when we have a full slate of
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 4: games to deal with.
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it for now. Peace.
• 2:00:34
  Speaker 1: If the doc starts talking, hand me the phone, that's somebody,
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 1: and so let somebody know.
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 3: You do not have to lose this round. Loe, hold on,
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 3: hold on, nothing to night, not no, hold on, hold on,
• 2:01:04
  Speaker 3: let me pull you are that bad luck by time,
• 2:01:12
  Speaker 3: but it don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on,
• 2:01:20
  Speaker 3: stay with me now, hold on, hold on, You're still
• 2:01:31
  Speaker 3: here now