Latest / International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better / Kotik and Mouseykins: Trump’s Iran War, Tsirski Out, and Russia Sanctions

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Kotik and Mouseykins: Trump’s Iran War, Tsirski Out, and Russia Sanctions · International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better

• 0:00
  Hello, good morning.
• 0:02
  Welcome.
• 0:03
  What is today?
• 0:04
  Anyway, is today Wednesday?
• 0:06
  Already?
• 0:07
  Is it the greatest day in radios that
• 0:11
  we're talking about?
• 0:12
  I think it is.
• 0:14
  Here we are at coming to you live
• 0:16
  from the Lake Ozark Real Estate of the
• 0:18
  Art Studio.
• 0:19
  We are at damradio.com forward slash live
• 0:23
  and you can pick us up not live
• 0:25
  kind of in the dead mode where we
• 0:28
  are officially buried in large piles across the
• 0:34
  internet on damradio.com forward slash podcast or
• 0:38
  you can go to internationalflavor.com and get
• 0:42
  all of the international flavor programs.
• 0:47
  You can feel free to phone in and
• 0:50
  from time to time I actually answer at
• 0:54
  573-746-8020 here live.
• 1:00
  I say it again in the Lake Ozark
• 1:02
  Real Estate of the Art Studio with a
• 1:04
  sip of coffee.
• 1:10
  That's good coffee.
• 1:12
  Okay, who said that?
• 1:13
  What movie?
• 1:14
  And you win nothing.
• 1:16
  You win absolutely nothing.
• 1:18
  But if you could tell me who said
• 1:19
  that in what movie?
• 1:21
  There was some Amish people in there.
• 1:24
  And there was a guy hiding out in
• 1:27
  there.
• 1:30
  And it wasn't somebody we all know and
• 1:33
  love.
• 1:33
  We shouldn't say that.
• 1:35
  Oh my god, I wish I could tell
• 1:36
  that story.
• 1:37
  But so far I haven't.
• 1:38
  I want his permission before I tell this
• 1:41
  terrible, terrible story.
• 1:43
  It's an interesting story.
• 1:44
  But what a scam.
• 1:47
  And I so I won't tell the story
• 1:49
  without him.
• 1:50
  But apparently he's not embarrassed of it at
• 1:54
  all.
• 1:55
  And he thinks it was a we had
• 1:58
  the hiding out from the feds.
• 2:00
  We had the same it wasn't the police
• 2:02
  in Pennsylvania, but it was the feds he
• 2:05
  was hiding out from.
• 2:06
  We had that interesting story.
• 2:08
  Yesterday we had the interesting life event of
• 2:11
  my poor little kitty cat.
• 2:13
  His name is Kotick, which means cat.
• 2:18
  Okay, Kotick.
• 2:19
  It's a little male cat.
• 2:20
  He's a tiny little kid, Kotick.
• 2:22
  And he is a cat and or a
• 2:26
  girl cat.
• 2:26
  Well, most any cat is a koshka.
• 2:29
  You know, is that the cat in?
• 2:31
  So but I call mine is Kotick in
• 2:33
  because he is a little evil doer cat
• 2:38
  of a young boy.
• 2:39
  And he got his little doodads lopped off
• 2:42
  yesterday.
• 2:43
  And he was pretty subdued yesterday evening.
• 2:47
  But what this says about where I reside,
• 2:51
  I don't know, but I came out and
• 2:55
  the little a hole this morning was batting
• 2:58
  around.
• 3:00
  Okay, now this is he was batting around
• 3:02
  a mouse, he got himself a mouse.
• 3:06
  And he seemed bored.
• 3:08
  You know, the guy was half dead.
• 3:09
  I guess he'd been beating him around for
• 3:12
  a while.
• 3:14
  And I was feeling guilty.
• 3:16
  I was like, damn, kill it or do
• 3:18
  that.
• 3:19
  But if you don't play with your food,
• 3:20
  you don't eat it.
• 3:23
  Anyway, the old kitty cat, we took care
• 3:25
  of that problem.
• 3:26
  It makes me glad to have him around,
• 3:28
  you know, I'm sitting there going, Hey, man,
• 3:30
  you know, that's pretty cool.
• 3:31
  And how in the world, so I never
• 3:33
  eat at home.
• 3:34
  I mean, it's extremely rare that I eat
• 3:36
  anything at home, you know, I might have
• 3:37
  a bit of snacking once in a while,
• 3:41
  but I'm really not even the biggest of
• 3:42
  snack folks.
• 3:44
  And so my, my typical I love soup,
• 3:48
  I have a soup issue.
• 3:49
  And so I eat soup and I'll you
• 3:52
  know, either break open a can of soup,
• 3:54
  I'll open it right if I'm hungry, and
• 3:56
  most time I'm not hungry in the evening.
• 3:59
  And I don't know.
• 4:03
  Anyway, nobody really cares about that story or
• 4:06
  what this is.
• 4:07
  But for today, I wanted to get into
• 4:09
  something of an international flavorish sort of show
• 4:13
  and not my poor cat destroying little, little
• 4:17
  mice in the house.
• 4:19
  And that mouse did not look happy.
• 4:21
  And you know, I what am I gonna
• 4:23
  do steal it from him?
• 4:25
  You know, I we he did put it
• 4:30
  out of its misery, just so you know,
• 4:31
  when he's no longer interested.
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  And you know, I figured, you know, well,
• 4:36
  let's not interfere and see what happens.
• 4:40
  I get in the shower, come out things
• 4:41
  dead.
• 4:42
  And he was the cat seemed depressed.
• 4:46
  He's laying I took a picture of it.
• 4:48
  He's laying there in front of the in
• 4:50
  front of the mouse and just staring at
• 4:53
  it.
• 4:53
  He looked bummed.
• 4:55
  Anyway, he looked pretty bummed that he killed
• 4:58
  his own toy.
• 4:59
  And he didn't like that.
• 5:01
  And so I owe to be young again,
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  I say.
• 5:04
  But at least that says that is having
• 5:07
  his doodads removed the old the old well,
• 5:15
  well, let's not let's just call them doodads
• 5:17
  for fun.
• 5:18
  The old yites, as they would call them
• 5:20
  in in Russian, the eggs, the old eggs
• 5:24
  removed yesterday, so he's gonna be okay.
• 5:32
  It appears anyway, stupid story, stupid day, lot
• 5:38
  going on, plenty of labor.
• 5:41
  And I slept maybe two hours yesterday.
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  And that was, you know, a bit troubling.
• 5:52
  My sleep is still rather, rather not good,
• 5:59
  let's say.
• 6:01
  But I was so Searsky, we were talking
• 6:03
  yesterday about Searsky, okay, and getting getting removed
• 6:08
  from office.
• 6:09
  And that happened overnight.
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  In fact, by the time I got home,
• 6:14
  I threw on a show, and he was
• 6:17
  gone.
• 6:17
  So we're going to get to some of
• 6:18
  that today.
• 6:22
  My argument about all these wars about all
• 6:26
  this, I don't know, propagandizing glorifying of war
• 6:33
  today, there was some some meme I saw
• 6:35
  on on YouTube, with the old put me
• 6:39
  in coach play in yesterday, where he's like,
• 6:43
  you talk all you want, but then you're
• 6:46
  gonna deal with the Department of War, you
• 6:51
  know, you're in deal with the department.
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  Oh, geez, I feel better now.
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  Glad this guy's around, aren't you to save
• 6:59
  us?
• 7:00
  Oh, boy.
• 7:02
  He's gonna save us, isn't he?
• 7:04
  From the evils of the world, I feel
• 7:07
  secure, knowing that the Secretary of War is
• 7:10
  alive and well.
• 7:12
  And you guys go talk in their room
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  all you want.
• 7:16
  But if you don't resolve your issues, Dad's
• 7:18
  coming home.
• 7:20
  And he's gonna say that old put me
• 7:22
  in coach can can can be put in,
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  you know, the coach will put me in
• 7:28
  and that'll be that you're done.
• 7:29
  So I don't know, here's here's the problem
• 7:33
  I have.
• 7:34
  The problem is not that Iran didn't present
• 7:38
  a genuine security nuclear or maritime challenge.
• 7:42
  The problem is that Washington converted those challenges,
• 7:48
  which were already dealt with into an open
• 7:51
  ended American war that now we're all supposed
• 7:55
  to, you know, love and and honor and
• 7:59
  say, Oh, geez, good job.
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  Put me in coach.
• 8:02
  Awesome.
• 8:03
  Good job, PD.
• 8:05
  And without what?
• 8:07
  Well, maybe we should get him a cheerleader
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  to, you know, we should throw a few
• 8:11
  cheerleaders his way.
• 8:12
  That's what he's really after is to have
• 8:14
  some people cheering from the sidelines, you know,
• 8:18
  and now it's an open ended American war.
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  It has no durable political settlement in sight,
• 8:28
  no reliable inspection is going to come of
• 8:31
  it.
• 8:32
  And permanently open navigation is severely questionable.
• 8:39
  And no identifiable end state.
• 8:43
  Welcome back to Afghanistan.
• 8:45
  Welcome back to any one of the other
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  ones that you can't figure out how to
• 8:50
  extricate yourself from later.
• 8:52
  Because you know, there's no such thing as
• 8:55
  victory here.
• 8:57
  And what are you going to call victory?
• 9:00
  What are you going to say?
• 9:01
  How are you going to declare what it
• 9:03
  is?
• 9:04
  You're not going to since the initial American
• 9:07
  Israeli operation on February 28.
• 9:10
  Well, this year, anyway, the US struck thousands
• 9:14
  of Iranian targets accepted casualties and enormous losses
• 9:19
  negotiated a ceasefire in April, a June memorandum,
• 9:24
  and now has resumed its extensive bombing in
• 9:28
  July, all with no war power, nothing.
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  And they just but if you can keep
• 9:34
  it less than whatever that number is 60
• 9:36
  days or whatever it is, you could just,
• 9:38
  you know, keep on doing it.
• 9:39
  You know, that's you just keep up.
• 9:42
  They do this indefinitely.
• 9:43
  It's a good way to go.
• 9:44
  Yeah, I mean, who cares about Congress anymore
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  these days anyway, nobody.
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  And so the result will never be a
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  conclusive defeat of Iran.
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  It's another cycle of bombing, temporary negotiations, renewed
• 9:59
  bombing, more negotiations, a memorandum.
• 10:04
  Next, we'll come up with a task force
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  that's going to get in and do it.
• 10:09
  Officially, the US states that has protected commerce
• 10:12
  and degraded Iranian military capabilities.
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  And Iran says Washington's intervention intervention is causing
• 10:19
  and has caused the shipping crisis from the
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  beginning.
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  And the Strait of Hormuz will not return
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  to normal while American attacks continue.
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  And that came from let's see here.
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  The fact sheet, the first 72 hours is
• 10:38
  from CENTCOM, I believe.
• 10:40
  But the overview, US CENTCOM commenced epic fury
• 10:45
  at the direction of the President of the
• 10:47
  United States.
• 10:48
  We're supposed to feel good about this, right?
• 10:51
  We're supposed to feel good.
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  CENTCOM forces struck targets to dismantle Iran's regime
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  security apparatus, prioritize locations that posed an imminent
• 11:01
  threat.
• 11:02
  That was on February 28, right?
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  The target locations, aside from girls, schools, our
• 11:11
  command and control centers, IRGC joint headquarters, aerospace
• 11:15
  forces headquarters, integrated air defense, ballistic missiles, and
• 11:20
  the assets employed, they have quite the list.
• 11:23
  Other capabilities, special capabilities, we can't list here.
• 11:28
  What did we use?
• 11:31
  B-1 bombers, B-2 bombers, B-52
• 11:33
  bombers, Lucas drones, Patriot interceptor missile systems, which
• 11:38
  I told you yesterday just don't work, THAAD
• 11:42
  anti-ballistic missile systems, F-15, F-16,
• 11:46
  18, 22, 35, and A-10 attack jets,
• 11:50
  EA-18G electronic air attack aircraft, airborne early
• 11:55
  warning and control aircraft, P-8 maritime patrol
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  aircraft.
• 12:00
  Oh, I'm so impressed that they can list
• 12:02
  this out for us to see this power
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  that they are using to destroy the evil
• 12:10
  regime, the evil empire.
• 12:12
  Yeah.
• 12:12
  Remember all those, you always got to call
• 12:15
  it something to make it, now it's epic
• 12:17
  theory.
• 12:18
  Oh yeah.
• 12:19
  What is it called now?
• 12:20
  They changed it again.
• 12:22
  I can't remember what it is, but anyway,
• 12:24
  the measurable answer appears to be damaged Iranian
• 12:29
  installations, temporary tactical advantage, and some protection, however
• 12:34
  short-lived, for shipping.
• 12:38
  But also now we have American deaths, hundreds
• 12:41
  of wounded personnel, tens of billions of dollars
• 12:44
  in direct cost, higher fuel prices with no
• 12:47
  end in sight, disrupted global commerce, and greater
• 12:51
  pressure on American bases in the area, you
• 12:57
  know, like in Jordan now, and an Iranian
• 13:03
  government with a fresh national resistance narrative.
• 13:08
  They've been able to renew all of that.
• 13:10
  So there's no proof yet of any sort
• 13:13
  of final strategic failure, but it is proof
• 13:16
  that they've incurred substantial cost with no demonstration
• 13:21
  of a proportionate and lasting political gain, meaning
• 13:26
  we're paying too much for what little joy
• 13:29
  people seem to get out of this.
• 13:31
  And it's also twisted, extremely lopsided to claim
• 13:35
  that, oh geez, we're doing so well here.
• 13:38
  So, I don't know, the whole world is
• 13:42
  in this same scenario because they can't tell
• 13:47
  to the Ukrainians what they've gained either.
• 13:50
  And the West, we can't figure out what
• 13:52
  we've gained there.
• 13:53
  We've spent butt-tons of money, and that's
• 13:57
  going well.
• 13:57
  President Zelensky confirmed yesterday that on July 21,
• 14:05
  old Mikhailo Drapaty would replace Alexander Sirsky as
• 14:09
  Commander-in-Chief.
• 14:12
  Zelensky, for his part, he says, oh, this
• 14:14
  is just continuity.
• 14:16
  Military operations, we're going to continue our long
• 14:19
  -range strikes and existing programs are going to
• 14:21
  proceed without interruption.
• 14:22
  In other words, the official presentation was not
• 14:25
  that military strategy failed, but a different commander
• 14:29
  was needed to execute the same thing.
• 14:33
  That distinction is pretty important.
• 14:36
  Sirsky had accumulated several separate categories of political
• 14:40
  liabilities.
• 14:41
  The image of commander associated with high casualty
• 14:45
  position warfare, you know, ground-based, right?
• 14:53
  There was a failure to resolve Ukraine's worsening
• 14:57
  manpower and mobilization problems.
• 14:59
  That's not going away.
• 15:01
  You know, they're not going to be able
• 15:02
  to get rid of that at all.
• 15:04
  There's a persistent conflicts between military command, the
• 15:08
  defense ministry, and politically connected drone and procurement
• 15:11
  interests.
• 15:13
  The politically connected meaning money, money connected, and
• 15:19
  the money laundering connected.
• 15:22
  There's public anger over individual units, command decisions,
• 15:25
  and allegations that soldiers are being killed without
• 15:28
  any operational justification.
• 15:30
  So his usefulness as a receptacle for criticism,
• 15:34
  you know, allowed Zelensky to have a kind
• 15:40
  of an in-between.
• 15:42
  So the Sirsky wasn't bad, and Fyodorov was
• 15:48
  good, or the reverse.
• 15:50
  I watched something by Alexey Aristovich yesterday, who's
• 15:53
  a Ukrainian political guy that gives shows in
• 15:56
  Russian, and he argued that Ukraine has two
• 16:00
  competing centers for the design and direction of
• 16:04
  its military system, the commander-in-chief and
• 16:06
  the general staff on one side, and the
• 16:09
  ministry and political leadership on the other.
• 16:13
  And their authorities overlap.
• 16:15
  Money and procurement follow different networks of patronage,
• 16:20
  and who you got to, which skids you
• 16:22
  got to grease to make sure that everybody
• 16:26
  gets their share of the bribes, you know.
• 16:30
  And the underlying institutional conflict produces repeated personnel
• 16:35
  wars over and over and over, and that's
• 16:37
  not going to stop.
• 16:39
  Replacing Sirsky won't resolve the structural division of
• 16:43
  authority.
• 16:43
  It's still there.
• 16:45
  It's still going to be.
• 16:46
  He was pretty critical of the idea that
• 16:49
  drones and digital systems can replace traditional combined
• 16:53
  armed forces, manpower, artillery, logistics, and properly organized
• 16:58
  formation.
• 17:00
  You can't get rid of that part.
• 17:02
  If that's the case, why aren't we just
• 17:05
  throwing nuclear bombs at each other and be
• 17:07
  done with it?
• 17:08
  You know, if the only way to get
• 17:09
  people to capitulate is to nuclear bomb them,
• 17:12
  then get throwing the bombs, you know, and
• 17:14
  people will throw them our way too.
• 17:16
  And so, what's the answer?
• 17:20
  God knows.
• 17:21
  But it's quit starting all these God-blessed
• 17:24
  wars and quit pushing them and pumping them
• 17:27
  everywhere.
• 17:28
  That's what's happening.
• 17:30
  And you know, we're the instigators.
• 17:32
  The Western systems are the instigators.
• 17:38
  That's what we do.
• 17:39
  And so, that's depressing.
• 17:42
  But Erastovich describes the military, this was interesting,
• 17:47
  I thought, as an orchestra.
• 17:49
  Drones are now indispensable instruments, but they do
• 17:52
  not eliminate the need for the rest of
• 17:55
  the orchestra.
• 17:57
  Now, that's correct.
• 17:58
  He argued that both the drone lobby around
• 18:02
  Fyodorov and the artillery command structure associated with
• 18:05
  Sirsky tended to exaggerate their own solutions and
• 18:09
  financial interests.
• 18:11
  So, Erastovich said that Drapati is equally useful.
• 18:15
  He said that Drapati might be one of
• 18:17
  the better available operational commanders and might command
• 18:22
  with greater care for personnel, but warned that
• 18:25
  he lacked Sirsky's political and bureaucratic weight, said
• 18:28
  he has no connections.
• 18:31
  A Ukrainian commander-in-chief doesn't merely direct
• 18:33
  the military, he has to survive the presidential
• 18:36
  office, the parliament, the procurement idiots, the foreign
• 18:41
  partner idiots, the activists, the intelligence agencies, and
• 18:45
  competing commanders down below.
• 18:47
  So, the critical question is, really, is Drapati
• 18:51
  a better general for this?
• 18:54
  You know, it's, will Zelensky give Drapati genuine
• 18:57
  authority?
• 18:57
  We all thought that Sirsky might have had
• 19:03
  that.
• 19:04
  Will Zelensky protect him from these political centers
• 19:09
  that are competing with each other and accept
• 19:12
  responsibility for the results?
• 19:14
  Or will Drapati become the next expendable official
• 19:18
  beneath Zelensky?
• 19:19
  That's what I believe is going to happen.
• 19:21
  You know, he'll last a little bit, then
• 19:23
  they'll get rid of him, they'll start all
• 19:25
  over, keep on trucking.
• 19:27
  So, what's the dismissal actually mean, in all
• 19:32
  seriousness?
• 19:33
  It means it's an admission of accumulated failures.
• 19:38
  Governments rarely replace a wartime commander if the
• 19:41
  operations are progressing satisfactorily.
• 19:44
  They are not.
• 19:46
  A political pressure release mechanism, removing Sirsky, allows
• 19:51
  Zelensky to tell the public that complaints were
• 19:54
  heard without conceding that the president's own system
• 19:58
  produced the problem.
• 20:00
  And it's definitely the president's problem, you know,
• 20:04
  that produced this.
• 20:05
  And it's a dangerous transition.
• 20:08
  Ukraine is entering another difficult operations period.
• 20:11
  Replacing the highest commander during war creates a
• 20:15
  risks and command relationship, planning and loyalty.
• 20:18
  And there's no strategic change.
• 20:21
  Zelensky expressly indicated that long range strikes and
• 20:26
  principled military programs are going to continue.
• 20:28
  So, this removal, I suppose it could be
• 20:32
  called justified, but it's largely cosmetic, unless accompanied
• 20:36
  by divisions of authority, changes, procurements that change,
• 20:41
  mobilization reform, change, or an honest examination of
• 20:46
  whether Ukraine's political objectives are attainable or attainable
• 20:51
  at an acceptable cost.
• 20:53
  I say all of those are basically negative.
• 21:01
  I tell you what, there's several things going
• 21:06
  on in Ukraine that is also not well
• 21:12
  represented or well told out here.
• 21:15
  But I think I'm going to hold that
• 21:17
  for a little bit later.
• 21:19
  And we're going to do that section afterward.
• 21:22
  Because the Iran war is, how did I
• 21:29
  phrase this to this morning from my little
• 21:32
  thesis that I want to put up?
• 21:34
  When's the last time, for example, that you
• 21:37
  really heard anything about this being Iran's war?
• 21:43
  This is Trump's war.
• 21:45
  Do you remember when Trump went out of
• 21:47
  his way and he's always saying, hey, my
• 21:49
  war, that's not my war.
• 21:50
  Ukraine is not my war.
• 21:52
  That's Joe Biden's war.
• 21:54
  Well, he could have said and impartially did
• 21:58
  say, Rubio definitely said it when they were
• 22:01
  starting this Iranian conflict in February, said, well,
• 22:06
  we're back in Israel against the evils and
• 22:10
  this is what we're doing.
• 22:11
  We're going to take care of all of
• 22:13
  this for Israel.
• 22:16
  And Israel was a part of it.
• 22:17
  When's the last time you heard anything about
• 22:19
  them?
• 22:19
  There's nothing there.
• 22:20
  We haven't heard anything about Israel lately.
• 22:23
  This is all now U.S. U.S.,
• 22:25
  it's us.
• 22:27
  So it's, excuse me, the renewed
• 22:37
  July operation indicates to Israel has not participated
• 22:42
  directly in this current round, which is a
• 22:45
  preference in Washington, Israel, and several Gulf capitals
• 22:50
  to limit further regional escalation.
• 22:53
  Israel retains the ability to act, continues to
• 22:57
  benefit from attacks on its principal regional adversary,
• 23:02
  and is of course deeply involved in the
• 23:05
  broader strategic confrontation.
• 23:07
  But the immediate burden is all U.S.
• 23:11
  air operations, naval protection, casualties, expenditures, political
• 23:16
  responsibility has decisively transferred to America and America
• 23:22
  only.
• 23:24
  You know, Israel no longer needs to lead
• 23:27
  any phase of this because the U.S.
• 23:29
  has adopted the conflict as American military strategy
• 23:32
  and operation.
• 23:35
  Foolishly, but in my view, Trump presented himself
• 23:39
  as a president who would prevent other countries
• 23:43
  from dragging America into endless wars.
• 23:48
  And Iran, however, he is now responsible for
• 23:52
  explaining, it's all him, well, except for put
• 23:56
  me in coach every once in a while,
• 23:58
  why the war continues, what constitutes a victory,
• 24:03
  now he has to tell you this, how
• 24:06
  long American forces will be engaged, why the
• 24:10
  June agreement didn't hold, why American personnel are
• 24:14
  dying, and why the U.S. must finance
• 24:17
  and police navigation through a strait that was
• 24:20
  functioning before the war began.
• 24:24
  Now never forget that.
• 24:25
  This strait functioned forever without this, and we
• 24:30
  jumped in.
• 24:31
  This mistake that you're trying to correct was
• 24:36
  just a glorious waste of time, is what
• 24:40
  it is, for the U.S. side anyway,
• 24:42
  is a complete waste of time.
• 24:45
  Why, another question that Trump has to explain,
• 24:48
  why have Israel's objectives become American operational responsibilities?
• 24:56
  I thought we were getting rid of the
• 24:57
  NATOist type of, you know, protect yourselves, Europe.
• 25:04
  Why can't we say the same thing to
• 25:06
  Israel?
• 25:08
  I don't have any interest in Israel.
• 25:10
  I don't give a crap, you know, what
• 25:12
  happens over there.
• 25:13
  That doesn't alarm me that they have their
• 25:16
  own problems.
• 25:17
  Many countries do.
• 25:18
  I'd feel the same about India and Pakistan.
• 25:21
  You know, they got problems.
• 25:22
  What's that have to do with me?
• 25:24
  Nothing.
• 25:25
  And this, and by the way, Israel absolutely
• 25:28
  has nothing to do with us.
• 25:32
  And what are we benefiting from?
• 25:35
  Somebody tell me.
• 25:36
  Oh gee, Iran might get a nuclear weapon.
• 25:39
  Okay, Israel has a nuclear weapon.
• 25:42
  They're more likely to use it.
• 25:44
  I don't see the argument.
• 25:46
  Now what?
• 25:46
  You know, hell, pretty soon we're going to
• 25:48
  give one to Finland and Ukraine and everybody,
• 25:51
  and trust me, they're eagerly digging in to
• 25:56
  try to get their own nuclear weapons for
• 26:01
  sure.
• 26:02
  But that's not allowed in Iran.
• 26:05
  Why?
• 26:05
  Because you don't understand them.
• 26:08
  They have a different culture, and that's no
• 26:12
  good.
• 26:13
  Can't have a different culture.
• 26:16
  Where's democracy?
• 26:17
  Well, same question.
• 26:19
  Other places.
• 26:20
  Where is the democracy?
• 26:22
  Where's our democracy, for God's sake?
• 26:25
  Anyway, let's look at the solving of the
• 26:28
  crisis that the war created.
• 26:30
  Before February 28, the Strait of Hormuz was
• 26:33
  dangerous, but it was operational.
• 26:36
  Iran periodically seized vessels, threatened closure, used maritime
• 26:41
  pressure, but large-scale energy traffic continued.
• 26:46
  When the war began, tanker movement collapsed, and
• 26:50
  the strait became effectively or intermittently closed to
• 26:54
  normal commercial operations.
• 26:57
  The IAEA described the current disruption as the
• 27:02
  most serious in the strait's history and coordinated
• 27:05
  a release of 400, I'm sorry, International Energy
• 27:10
  Agency, 400 million barrels from emergency reserves.
• 27:15
  CENTCOM says Iran has attacked more than 30
• 27:19
  commercial vessels and that American forces have assisted
• 27:23
  900 ships carrying roughly 450 million barrels since
• 27:28
  early May.
• 27:29
  So the American position is that its forces
• 27:31
  are preserving navigation against Iranian coercion.
• 27:40
  Iran's position is kind of the inverse of
• 27:42
  that.
• 27:43
  Iranian military and diplomatic statements say that American
• 27:46
  -Israel aggression produced a closure, absolutely true, that
• 27:52
  Iran retains the sovereign right to regulate maritime
• 27:55
  routes under wartime conditions, and that the June
• 27:58
  memorandum did not authorize Washington to establish any
• 28:03
  American-controlled alternative passage.
• 28:06
  Both accounts contain an element of the truth.
• 28:10
  Iran is making and enforcing direct threat to
• 28:14
  commercial traffic, but the present near closure is
• 28:17
  inseparable from the war launched on February 28.
• 28:21
  Therefore Washington's claim that it is now rescuing
• 28:25
  world commerce is a circular argument.
• 28:29
  The U.S. is spending lives and money
• 28:32
  to protect shipping from a wartime response that
• 28:36
  didn't exist at this scale until the United
• 28:39
  States created the problem.
• 28:41
  So Trump has spoken of the United States
• 28:44
  taking over Hormuz and being compensated for it.
• 28:49
  Yeah, that makes the operations sound a lot
• 28:52
  less like the defense of an existing international
• 28:55
  order and more like the creation of yet
• 28:58
  another permanent American protectorate.
• 29:03
  So that's an extremely difficult message to reconcile
• 29:07
  with the America First group.
• 29:10
  You know, if you believe in America First,
• 29:12
  like I generally did, you know, take care
• 29:15
  of ourselves first.
• 29:18
  This does not appeal to you.
• 29:20
  And if it does, then you're not really
• 29:22
  America First, are you?
• 29:24
  You're willing to waste your money all over
• 29:27
  the planet.
• 29:28
  Oh, we're protecting everybody.
• 29:30
  Well, what did Trump say?
• 29:32
  We don't need any of that oil.
• 29:33
  We're self-sufficient.
• 29:35
  If we're self-sufficient, why the hell do
• 29:37
  we care?
• 29:39
  In all seriousness, I mean, riddle me that,
• 29:42
  Batman, where in the hell do we gain
• 29:48
  benefit here?
• 29:49
  I don't understand it.
• 29:52
  What has the United States actually gained from
• 29:55
  all this nonsense?
• 29:57
  In all seriousness, what have we gained?
• 30:00
  The strongest case for the administration, let's talk
• 30:05
  about it from Donald Trump's side.
• 30:07
  Here's what he has gained.
• 30:09
  He has destroyed or damaged extensive Iranian missile,
• 30:13
  naval, air defense, and command infrastructure.
• 30:16
  That's true.
• 30:18
  He's reduced Iran's immediate ability to threaten Israel,
• 30:22
  American bases, and Gulf shipping, arguably.
• 30:28
  Well, he's certainly limited their capacity for taking
• 30:34
  care of it, for sure.
• 30:35
  He's demonstrated that attacks on commercial vessels and
• 30:38
  American personnel will bring overwhelming retaliation, right?
• 30:43
  And he increased negotiating leverage over Iran's nuclear
• 30:47
  program and regional military network.
• 30:50
  And he reassured Gulf governments, I'm not sure
• 30:55
  they believe it yet, but they've been reassured,
• 30:58
  that the U.S. is capable of protecting
• 31:01
  them.
• 31:02
  Now, I'm not so positive on that one.
• 31:04
  That one I give about a 50-50,
• 31:07
  maybe even a 40-60.
• 31:09
  But that is, you know, it's part of
• 31:14
  what they are claiming they gained.
• 31:16
  And those gains are real.
• 31:17
  By April 1st, the Pentagon reported more than
• 31:20
  12,300 targets had been struck, 13,000
• 31:24
  combat flights, and more than 155 Iranian vessels
• 31:28
  were damaged or destroyed.
• 31:32
  And there is a genuine nuclear issue.
• 31:35
  Iran had continuing disputes with IAEA over access,
• 31:39
  declaration, and safeguards.
• 31:42
  But you're not even allowed to question Israel.
• 31:47
  You're not allowed to inspect their sites.
• 31:50
  Why is it so lopsided?
• 31:53
  I have a serious problem with rules for
• 31:56
  me and not for the, I've talked about
• 31:58
  that forever on this program.
• 32:00
  All the rules are forever, you know, that
• 32:03
  way.
• 32:05
  But there is really a genuine, a genuine
• 32:07
  issue.
• 32:08
  The 2026 U.S. intelligence assessment, remember that?
• 32:12
  Stated that Iran, that's a joke, by the
• 32:15
  way.
• 32:15
  Please read it.
• 32:16
  It's a, boy, I tell you what, it's
• 32:18
  a, it's, it's, it doesn't even, it's not
• 32:22
  truthful.
• 32:23
  Let's put it that way.
• 32:24
  We went over that, had a whole show
• 32:25
  on that back in the beginning of the
• 32:27
  year.
• 32:28
  Stated that Iran intended to recover damaged nuclear
• 32:31
  infrastructure and continued to resist IAEA obligations.
• 32:36
  I'd be all right if they impose the
• 32:38
  obligations on other countries too.
• 32:41
  This doesn't prove Iran had made a final
• 32:44
  decision to construct nuclear weapons, but it prevented
• 32:46
  a short, serious analysts from saying there is
• 32:51
  no non-proliferate, you know, non-proliferation problem
• 32:55
  at all.
• 32:56
  You know, for, if I got on here
• 32:57
  and said there was no non-proliferation problem,
• 33:00
  then that'd be BS.
• 33:01
  There is one, but wow.
• 33:11
  There's a, a Biden illegal immigrant executed an
• 33:15
  Air Force veteran on his front porch is
• 33:19
  the news on the TV right now.
• 33:22
  I haven't had time to pull that up,
• 33:23
  but that could be a headline to review.
• 33:27
  What is still missing from the, a part
• 33:30
  in Iran is the US has not publicly
• 33:33
  demonstrated any sort of destroyed or permanently dismantled
• 33:38
  nuclear program, or even the need to do
• 33:41
  so in my view.
• 33:44
  No new enforceable inspection agreement has been outlined.
• 33:51
  There is no stable reopening of Hormuz.
• 33:54
  That's not available for us.
• 33:57
  They haven't shown us that Iran has accepted
• 34:02
  a new regional security order.
• 34:04
  They haven't even shown us any sort of
• 34:07
  regime collapse or a more US friendly successor
• 34:16
  government.
• 34:17
  They haven't given us any sort of defined
• 34:21
  date or condition for ending American operations in
• 34:28
  the area.
• 34:30
  And no congressional authority has specifically approved this
• 34:34
  war.
• 34:35
  So that's the classic endless war program that
• 34:39
  we're all so familiar with and used to.
• 34:42
  Impressive tactical reports by put me in coach
• 34:46
  accompanied by an undefined political destination.
• 34:50
  We have no idea where we're going and
• 34:52
  what, what constitutes victory and all with amounting
• 34:57
  cost to the United States.
• 35:00
  Yesterday, put me in coach placed the cost
• 35:04
  of the war at so far at approximately
• 35:07
  37 and a half billion with the administration
• 35:11
  seeking more billions, 18 American service members killed
• 35:16
  and more than 500 wounded.
• 35:19
  And if you believe those numbers, which I
• 35:23
  don't, the Pentagon has also sought authority to
• 35:26
  shift 4.3 billion among existing accounts.
• 35:33
  This is money being diverted to continue the
• 35:37
  operation in Iran.
• 35:38
  It's, it's, you know, the, it's, it's just
• 35:42
  broad.
• 35:43
  Let's shuffle more money around so we can
• 35:45
  put some more there, rising personnel readiness, operational
• 35:49
  requirements.
• 35:51
  Although the Iran war is, is definitely a
• 35:55
  major source of pressure and money and money
• 35:59
  spent.
• 36:00
  So the energy costs are what is more
• 36:02
  important to me and more important politically also
• 36:06
  to triple a reported a national gasoline average.
• 36:10
  Here we are July 16, national average price
• 36:14
  of gas at $3.94 a gallon.
• 36:17
  That was on July 16 with recent increases
• 36:21
  tied to hormones instability.
• 36:23
  And on July 22, Brent crude moved above
• 36:28
  $94 a barrel and West Texas intermediate approached
• 36:32
  88.
• 36:34
  And so for the American household, the strategic
• 36:36
  terminology is irrelevant.
• 36:39
  The public experiences, the war through what gasoline
• 36:43
  food and transportation prices, insurance and shipping costs,
• 36:48
  images of military funerals, supplemental spending packages, and
• 36:52
  the possibility of broad mobilization or ground deployment.
• 36:56
  That's why the administration's position is more difficult
• 37:00
  every month that campaign continues without an obvious
• 37:05
  victory.
• 37:07
  And it's getting worse.
• 37:08
  I think it's going to be horrible for
• 37:10
  them in November because of this.
• 37:15
  And the election in November is a congressional
• 37:18
  midterm.
• 37:20
  So the, you know, of course, Trump's not
• 37:22
  on the ballot, but the midterms are going
• 37:25
  to function partially as kind of a referendum
• 37:29
  on his presidency.
• 37:32
  The Iran war is a particularly dangerous, dangerous
• 37:36
  division.
• 37:36
  You have a lot of us Republicans that
• 37:38
  are seriously divided on this.
• 37:40
  I have, I have good friends that are
• 37:41
  all for it.
• 37:42
  Yay.
• 37:42
  We love put me in coach, bomb them
• 37:45
  away, put me in, come on, put me
• 37:47
  in to throw another bomb, you know, get
• 37:49
  some more money, grease your hair back a
• 37:51
  little bit more in front of Congress, sit
• 37:53
  up there and get some more money and
• 37:54
  get these boys on the ground in Iraq
• 37:57
  or in Iran.
• 37:59
  And we need some more people with no
• 38:01
  arms and no legs.
• 38:02
  We need to fund that veterans administration even
• 38:05
  more.
• 38:06
  And we fund it with bodies, you know,
• 38:08
  with more wounds is what we need to
• 38:10
  do.
• 38:11
  So the Iran war, this is a dangerous
• 38:14
  division in the Republican coalition.
• 38:18
  Because this is striking at the very issue
• 38:21
  that distinguished Trump from all of the neocon
• 38:26
  traditional interventionist establishment a-holes.
• 38:30
  A meaningful part of MAGA was bit, and
• 38:34
  I'm, I don't know that I've ever called
• 38:36
  myself a MAGA guy.
• 38:37
  I've called, I call myself leave the rest
• 38:40
  of the world alone, you know, just what
• 38:42
  the hell we aren't America's policemen.
• 38:46
  And I've been saying that for a hundred
• 38:48
  years.
• 38:49
  Well, you know, I'm nearing a hundred, but
• 38:51
  so far not there.
• 38:52
  So, but if I told you once, I
• 38:54
  told you a thousand times, never exaggerate.
• 38:57
  And so there you go.
• 38:59
  The meaningful part of MAGA though, was built
• 39:03
  around the proposition that Republican leaders had wasted
• 39:08
  American lives and money in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya,
• 39:14
  Syria, and many other intervention places.
• 39:18
  Trump can still argue that his version of
• 39:21
  war is different.
• 39:23
  No occupation, no nation building.
• 39:27
  We're, we're, we've learned from Ukraine and we're
• 39:29
  just bombing the crap out of, out of
• 39:31
  people.
• 39:32
  And hopefully they capitulate because we have bigger
• 39:35
  missiles.
• 39:37
  Overwhelming force applied to compel a settlement.
• 39:41
  We're gonna, we're gonna, we're the bully and
• 39:43
  we're gonna kick you in the groin until
• 39:46
  you capitulate.
• 39:49
  And you know, this is, this is necessary
• 39:53
  America.
• 39:54
  We're protecting trade and American personnel.
• 39:57
  Yeah, but they wouldn't have been in danger
• 39:59
  if you hadn't attacked in the first place.
• 40:02
  We attacked first, we attacked, and there's no
• 40:06
  justification for it.
• 40:07
  You can sit there and claim, oh gee,
• 40:09
  they were building a nuclear weapon.
• 40:11
  Number one, who cares?
• 40:13
  And number two, apply the rules equally and
• 40:17
  I'll support your position, but you never do.
• 40:21
  And so as casualties, expenditures, and the duration
• 40:24
  of this conflict increases, the distinction is hard
• 40:28
  to maintain.
• 40:30
  But public opinion, I think, favors me and
• 40:35
  the people like me.
• 40:37
  Pew did a research said 59% of
• 40:42
  the internet initial use of force, 59%
• 40:46
  say the initial use of force was wrong.
• 40:50
  59% that the February 28 action was
• 40:55
  just wrong.
• 40:56
  And 62% disprove of Trump's handling of
• 41:00
  the conflict.
• 41:01
  I'm, I'm, I'm one of both of those
• 41:04
  numbers.
• 41:05
  In June, a Quinnipiac survey said that 60
• 41:08
  % said that the military action was not
• 41:11
  worth the cost.
• 41:13
  So I, if you extrapolate this to elections,
• 41:19
  there could be some troubles on the horizon.
• 41:22
  Gallup measured approval at only 34%, lower than
• 41:27
  for many major military actions at comparable stages.
• 41:32
  Polling shows strong opposition to ground troops and
• 41:35
  substantial support for requiring congressional approval.
• 41:39
  I agree with both those concepts.
• 41:42
  No ground troops.
• 41:44
  And I think you should get congressional approval.
• 41:47
  I disagree with this type of, of warfare
• 41:50
  and always have.
• 41:52
  So I haven't changed anything in my life.
• 41:55
  I've been against it forever.
• 41:57
  That does not establish that Iran will determine
• 42:01
  midterms.
• 42:02
  That's not true.
• 42:03
  Current voting surveys still show a competitive national
• 42:07
  environment.
• 42:07
  Republicans retain advantages with many voters on economic
• 42:12
  and security issues.
• 42:14
  So I'm not sure.
• 42:16
  We'll have to see what happens.
• 42:18
  But, but I don't trust polls anyway.
• 42:22
  You know, the electoral effect is going to
• 42:24
  depend on five developments between now and October,
• 42:28
  is what I say.
• 42:30
  Here's the biggest one, because this is my
• 42:33
  biggest deal.
• 42:34
  What have I said?
• 42:35
  And I said it immediately, like in early,
• 42:38
  early March, maybe even, well, I don't know,
• 42:42
  a couple of days afterward.
• 42:44
  In mid-February, I paid $2.39 for
• 42:50
  a gallon of gas.
• 42:51
  I was all, this is awesome.
• 42:54
  You know, I was pro, you know, whatever
• 42:56
  is happening, at least the price of gas
• 42:58
  is down.
• 42:59
  There's no new real war or anything like
• 43:01
  that.
• 43:02
  People were talking, you know, at least, and
• 43:05
  negotiating.
• 43:08
  However, if the gas remains near or above
• 43:12
  $4 nationally, like it is now, I think
• 43:17
  that's going to hurt.
• 43:19
  I think it's going to hurt.
• 43:22
  And I'm not predicting anything.
• 43:27
  It's, it's, it's a, it's a toss up.
• 43:30
  But if gas stays above $4 or gets,
• 43:35
  goes above there, and, and they say that
• 43:37
  we're running out of the strategic reserves.
• 43:40
  What do we got, like six weeks or
• 43:41
  something?
• 43:41
  And we're supposed to have like four months
• 43:43
  or whatever it is.
• 43:45
  It's a, it's a different, the, the, the
• 43:47
  calculus is that we only got 40%
• 43:49
  of what we're supposed to have.
• 43:51
  And, you know, American casualties, if they continue,
• 43:55
  that's going to be another big deal.
• 44:01
  Whether Trump, as the grand negotiator that he
• 44:04
  is, can come up with some sort of
• 44:07
  credible settlement.
• 44:08
  I think that's a pipe dream.
• 44:10
  We've had it a couple of times, you
• 44:12
  know, the MOU was just a joke.
• 44:16
  And I said that when it came out,
• 44:18
  you know, that ain't going to be anything.
• 44:19
  They're going to, they're going to, all they're
• 44:21
  doing is putting a pause in it for
• 44:23
  a week or two, and then they're going
• 44:24
  to start bombing the hell out of them
• 44:26
  again.
• 44:26
  It's exactly what happened.
• 44:28
  And so there is no credible settlement.
• 44:31
  We're just going to have to keep on
• 44:32
  spending and they're going to sell it to
• 44:34
  us as, well, we got to keep bombing
• 44:36
  out these bad guys.
• 44:38
  They're all bad guys.
• 44:39
  Yeah.
• 44:40
  Yeah.
• 44:41
  Yeah.
• 44:41
  Yeah.
• 44:42
  Whether Iran produces a dramatic attack on Americans
• 44:45
  or shipping that rallies public support for the,
• 44:49
  for the, so, so if Iran sometime between
• 44:52
  now and election time starts some, or is
• 44:58
  able to pull off some kind of a
• 45:00
  large scale attack somewhere and have a serious
• 45:05
  number of casualties and whatever, that'll change public
• 45:09
  support.
• 45:09
  It always does.
• 45:11
  So the Iranians need to stay somewhat docile
• 45:16
  until after, in their view, until after the
• 45:21
  elections.
• 45:23
  Maybe they put their stuff together and don't
• 45:25
  have a, and do a, do a, whatever
• 45:29
  you want to call it, counter attack, counter
• 45:31
  strikes, limited, limited, limited in anything major.
• 45:35
  They wait till after the elections.
• 45:39
  And the final one is whether the economy
• 45:41
  is strong enough to absorb the energy shock
• 45:44
  that is definitely coming.
• 45:45
  So as of July 22, the Iran war
• 45:50
  is a political liability for Trump.
• 45:53
  No doubt.
• 45:54
  It could become a major midterm liability if
• 45:57
  it stays unresolved, expensive, and American owned as
• 46:04
  it were through September and October.
• 46:07
  So I don't know.
• 46:11
  Iranian reporting depicts the war as an unprovoked
• 46:14
  American-Israeli effort to impose political submission, seize
• 46:19
  control of shipping and dismantle Iran's sovereign defense.
• 46:23
  Tehran argues that pressure and bombing have repeatedly
• 46:27
  been used during negotiation, making American ceasefire proposals
• 46:32
  unreliable.
• 46:33
  Where have we heard that before?
• 46:35
  Ceasefires aren't really ceasefires.
• 46:39
  You can't trust them because then you start
• 46:42
  talking and while you're talking, there have people,
• 46:46
  you know, headed out to bomb you while
• 46:49
  you're talking.
• 46:50
  And everybody complains about that and says, yeah,
• 46:53
  well, no, that's just leverage for the art
• 46:57
  of the deal, right?
• 46:58
  That's just leverage for the art of the
• 47:00
  deal.
• 47:01
  So Trump's no different than any other president
• 47:03
  is what we're saying with that.
• 47:07
  But the Iranian outlets are saying they still
• 47:11
  have military endurance, continued missile capability, and the
• 47:16
  idea that resistance prevented the country from being
• 47:18
  reduced to another Iraq or another Libya.
• 47:22
  The strength of this narrative is that the
• 47:25
  U.S. did resume bombing after a ceasefire
• 47:27
  and a subsequent memorandum.
• 47:30
  It's a weak, a weak justification, of course,
• 47:35
  for the attack.
• 47:36
  But the weakness of this position is that
• 47:39
  Iran also attacks commercial shipping, military bases, neighboring
• 47:44
  infrastructure.
• 47:45
  And so that could be a responsibility for
• 47:49
  them too.
• 47:49
  Tehran cannot indefinitely claim defensive necessity and threaten
• 47:55
  vessels belonging to states not participating in the
• 47:58
  war.
• 47:59
  I got curious and wanted to find out
• 48:02
  what India thought of all this.
• 48:03
  I don't know why, but I always like
• 48:05
  to get an Indian perspective because they're kind
• 48:07
  of a middle of the road group.
• 48:10
  I didn't look up any China one, but
• 48:13
  India's position is somewhat pragmatic.
• 48:17
  New Delhi needs energy.
• 48:20
  They need safe shipping, access to Iran, and
• 48:24
  functioning relations with the U.S. and Gulf
• 48:27
  states.
• 48:27
  They work with everyone.
• 48:29
  The Indian government emphasizes diplomacy, as usual, while
• 48:33
  acknowledging the passage through Hormuz is extremely difficult
• 48:37
  and that India has to obtain energy from
• 48:40
  wherever possible.
• 48:42
  Modi has maintained contact with Iranian leaders and
• 48:45
  has worked with partners such as Japan on
• 48:48
  energy resilience.
• 48:50
  India is a useful measure of the conflict's
• 48:53
  global cost.
• 48:54
  It does not want an ideological confrontation with
• 48:57
  Iran.
• 48:58
  It does not want American control over who
• 49:02
  India can purchase energy from.
• 49:05
  Its central interests are price, reliability, strategic autonomy.
• 49:10
  That's what India cares about.
• 49:13
  That's what India says.
• 49:16
  Russia takes the position that unilateral American force
• 49:22
  with a proposal for a collective Gulf security
• 49:25
  framework based on equal and divisible security, sovereignty,
• 49:30
  and freedom of navigation.
• 49:32
  Moscow and Tehran have opposed American attempts to
• 49:35
  exercise permanent control over Hormuz.
• 49:39
  Russia benefits strategically from America's distraction in Iran
• 49:44
  and potentially from higher energy prices, but it
• 49:47
  too faces regional instability that affects many of
• 49:53
  Russia's partners.
• 49:56
  Pressure on transport corridors is a big deal.
• 50:00
  Greater American sanctions enforcement and a possible confrontation
• 50:04
  involving Russian personnel or technology and incentives for
• 50:09
  Washington to link Iran and Russia in a
• 50:12
  single sanctions structure, which I believe is somewhat
• 50:17
  of the Lindsey Graham thing.
• 50:18
  We're gonna take a miniscule break and
• 50:28
  when we come back we're gonna talk about
• 50:31
  the Lindsey Graham sanctions machine.
• 50:38
  Don't you think that'll be fun?
• 50:39
  We could see where that is in the
• 50:42
  days where are we now?
• 50:46
  We want to know.
• 50:48
  Let's see.
• 50:50
  We're gonna give you something here.
• 50:53
  I'm trying to find the one that I
• 50:56
  would like that isn't so lengthy.
• 51:02
  We're gonna give you, I like a bunch
• 51:04
  of these music videos that I like.
• 51:10
  No, not videos.
• 51:11
  I like the music, not the video.
• 51:13
  I don't care about that.
• 51:14
  I want to just have something on in
• 51:19
  the background.
• 51:20
  You know what I'm screaming?
• 51:22
  And that is what I like.
• 51:24
  You know what I watched the other night?
• 51:26
  I watched Gangs of New York.
• 51:29
  Do you remember that show?
• 51:30
  That was a pretty good show.
• 51:34
  And I always thought that actor, what is
• 51:37
  his name?
• 51:38
  Daniel Day Lewis, I think is his name.
• 51:42
  And he's really a hell of an actor.
• 51:49
  And he's a joy to watch in all
• 51:54
  seriousness.
• 51:55
  And if you get, you know, maybe it
• 51:58
  would be worthy to go back and watch
• 52:01
  that movie again should you feel the urge.
• 52:13
  Okay, I have found it.
• 52:15
  I'm gonna play this for you.
• 52:34
  And I think of when we were together,
• 52:45
  when you said you felt so happy you
• 52:48
  could die.
• 52:49
  I told myself that you were right for
• 52:55
  me.
• 52:56
  It felt so lonely in your company.
• 53:00
  But that was love, and it's an ache
• 53:02
  I still remember.
• 53:21
  You can get addicted to a certain kind
• 53:25
  of sadness.
• 53:29
  Like resignation to the end, born is the
• 53:33
  end.
• 53:36
  So when we found that we could not
• 53:39
  make sense, well you said that we would
• 53:42
  still be friends.
• 53:44
  But I admitted I was glad that it
• 53:47
  was over.
• 53:52
  You didn't have to cut me off.
• 53:56
  Think of like it never happened before we
• 53:58
  were nothing.
• 54:00
  I don't even need your love.
• 54:02
  But you treat me like a stranger and
• 54:04
  I feel so rough.
• 54:07
  No, you didn't have to stoop so low.
• 54:11
  Having friends collect you until they change your
• 54:14
  number.
• 54:15
  You said I didn't need that though.
• 54:18
  Now you're just somebody that I used to
• 54:20
  know.
• 54:25
  Now you're just somebody that I used to
• 54:28
  know.
• 54:32
  Now you're just somebody that I used to
• 54:35
  know.
• 54:51
  Now and then I think of all the
• 54:53
  times you screwed me over.
• 54:58
  Letting me believe in it was always something
• 55:01
  that I've done.
• 55:06
  But I don't want to live that way.
• 55:11
  I didn't mean to every word you say.
• 55:14
  You said that you could let it go
• 55:17
  and I wouldn't catch you pulling up on
• 55:19
  somebody that you used to know.
• 55:22
  But you didn't have to cut me off.
• 55:25
  Think of like it never happened before we
• 55:28
  were nothing.
• 55:28
  I don't even need your love.
• 55:32
  But you treat me like a stranger and
• 55:34
  I feel so rough.
• 55:36
  No, you didn't have to stoop so low.
• 55:40
  Having friends collect you until they change your
• 55:43
  number.
• 55:44
  You said I didn't need that though.
• 55:47
  Now you're just somebody that I used to
• 55:50
  know.
• 56:09
  I like that song.
• 56:11
  Can't tell you why.
• 56:12
  I just do.
• 56:13
  Let's see.
• 56:15
  I want to get quickly to the old
• 56:18
  Lindsey Graham Russia sanctions bill and whether it
• 56:23
  is still alive.
• 56:25
  The sanctions proposal is not dead.
• 56:28
  Lindsey Graham died, however, on July 11, 2026.
• 56:33
  But the legislation has subsequently introduced as the,
• 56:39
  listen to this, The Lindsey O.
• 56:42
  Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026, S-5025.
• 56:51
  On July 16, it has more than 60
• 56:54
  bipartisan supporters and has received administration backing.
• 56:59
  It has been introduced and referred, but has
• 57:03
  not yet passed a Senate or become law.
• 57:05
  The current proposal is different from the earlier
• 57:09
  headline-grabbing 500% tariff threat.
• 57:12
  The revised structure provides for sanctions against Russian
• 57:16
  officials, financial institutions, energy interests, and the shadow
• 57:23
  fleet.
• 57:24
  With tariffs up to 100% directed at
• 57:28
  major importers or facilitators of Russian energy and
• 57:32
  sanctions evasion.
• 57:34
  Proponents will say, here's what they're telling us.
• 57:37
  This is increasing economic pressure without sending American
• 57:41
  troops to Ukraine.
• 57:43
  We don't need to send American troops to
• 57:45
  Ukraine anyway.
• 57:46
  We need to extricate our fat rear ends
• 57:49
  from Ukraine is what needs to happen.
• 57:53
  Reduces Russian energy revenue.
• 57:57
  Really?
• 57:57
  I think not.
• 58:01
  Targets sanctions evasion.
• 58:04
  Gives Trump bargaining leverage.
• 58:08
  He's not bargaining.
• 58:10
  Why would he need any leverage?
• 58:12
  What's he going to bargain?
• 58:13
  Forces major trading states to choose between access
• 58:17
  to Russia and access to the United States.
• 58:21
  The central strategic contradiction is that the U
• 58:26
  .S. is considering sanctions that will pressure major
• 58:30
  Russian energy purchasers.
• 58:33
  Most obviously large Asian economies, while simultaneously fighting
• 58:38
  a war that has tightened global oil and
• 58:41
  shipping markets.
• 58:43
  So Russia's one of the largest suppliers.
• 58:47
  You can't adequately guarantee the supply of oil
• 58:54
  with what you're doing in Iran or in
• 58:57
  the Hormuz Straits.
• 58:59
  So the combination of these things will cause
• 59:03
  the prices of energy to go up even
• 59:07
  further.
• 59:07
  And will further damage relationships with India and
• 59:12
  other non-Western partners.
• 59:14
  It will also encourage payment systems outside the
• 59:19
  dollar.
• 59:20
  And it will increase incentives for Russia, China,
• 59:23
  Iran, and India to develop alternative trade and
• 59:27
  financial arrangements.
• 59:28
  Those are ongoing.
• 59:30
  And it will impose costs on American consumers
• 59:33
  before producing decisive pressure on Moscow.
• 59:35
  The sanctions bill does not help much in
• 59:43
  other words.
• 59:44
  And the government is simultaneously constricting Russian energy
• 59:49
  commerce and destabilizing the other principal energy corridors.
• 59:55
  I don't know.
• 59:56
  I don't see it as beneficial to us
• 1:00:06
  as Americans.
• 1:00:10
  So the administration is saying, well, but wait.
• 1:00:13
  It's not us closing the Straits of Hormuz.
• 1:00:15
  It's Iran.
• 1:00:16
  It wasn't us.
• 1:00:17
  We didn't have anything to do with it.
• 1:00:19
  Which is nuts.
• 1:00:20
  But that's what they're saying.
• 1:00:21
  We have to keep it open.
• 1:00:23
  Yeah, that's right.
• 1:00:24
  You have to keep it open.
• 1:00:26
  You shouldn't have closed it in the first
• 1:00:27
  place.
• 1:00:30
  American operations prevented nuclear arms in Iran.
• 1:00:35
  That's what happened.
• 1:00:36
  I see.
• 1:00:39
  Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 1:00:42
  I don't know.
• 1:00:43
  I'm just tired of wars being sold as
• 1:00:46
  limited operations, you know, that need to do
• 1:00:49
  this and then turn into endless offensive.
• 1:00:55
  Well, they used to be offensive to Trump
• 1:00:57
  too.
• 1:00:57
  He didn't like them.
• 1:00:58
  He talked poorly of them.
• 1:00:59
  I should find that little video again of
• 1:01:01
  the three minutes of Trump saying, no more
• 1:01:05
  war, no more war, no more war.
• 1:01:08
  And see if that lines up with what
• 1:01:12
  they're thinking.
• 1:01:13
  But these limited things become permanent systems of
• 1:01:17
  power, money, censorship, corruption, mobilization, and political self
• 1:01:25
  -preservation.
• 1:01:26
  So this is no different than any other
• 1:01:29
  leader, whether you believe this way or not,
• 1:01:31
  any other leader in the past 50 years.
• 1:01:34
  Creating a conflict, a war conflict, especially to
• 1:01:41
  increase their own position before elections.
• 1:01:45
  So if he can get this ramped up
• 1:01:47
  in time for the elections.
• 1:01:50
  Remember I was talking before the break about
• 1:01:52
  how the impact of what's going on in
• 1:01:58
  Iran could have a negative effect on what's
• 1:02:01
  going on.
• 1:02:01
  But if he can ramp it up, there's
• 1:02:03
  a likelihood that people go, yeah, America, yeah,
• 1:02:08
  America, and yeah, let's vote to keep things
• 1:02:13
  going the way they are.
• 1:02:14
  So it's a cynical view to think that
• 1:02:17
  people would increase war just to improve their
• 1:02:20
  election chances.
• 1:02:23
  But they would.
• 1:02:24
  I have no doubt that they would.
• 1:02:25
  So I don't know what's going to happen,
• 1:02:31
  but I think it's interesting to keep track
• 1:02:37
  on it.
• 1:02:37
  I wanted to talk about a few stories
• 1:02:42
  that really bothered me over the weekend, or
• 1:02:49
  over the last few days, I suppose.
• 1:02:51
  So there's all kinds of violence going on
• 1:02:54
  in Italy right now.
• 1:02:55
  Have you heard about this?
• 1:02:59
  Italian police clashed with demonstrators in the northern
• 1:03:02
  city of Bologna after a Moroccan-born man
• 1:03:06
  died on Sunday pleading for help while being
• 1:03:10
  restrained by police.
• 1:03:11
  A guy named Abderrahim Fakir, a Moroccan-born
• 1:03:18
  entrepreneur who ran a small removal and cleaning
• 1:03:22
  business, died after police were called to investigate
• 1:03:27
  reports of a man behaving aggressively and damaging
• 1:03:31
  a vehicle.
• 1:03:31
  A video of the incident filmed by his
• 1:03:35
  neighbor shows Fakir lying face down, repeatedly crying,
• 1:03:41
  help, help, that is enough, as two police
• 1:03:45
  officers restrain him and he appears to struggle
• 1:03:48
  for breath before becoming motionless.
• 1:03:52
  Thousands protested Monday night demanding justice and truth.
• 1:03:57
  Police deployed tear
• 1:04:02
  gas, water cannons, demonstrators
• 1:04:12
  threw firecrackers, a small group clashed with the
• 1:04:15
  police into the night, and 64 officers were
• 1:04:19
  injured, according to prosecutors.
• 1:04:21
  Well, I'm telling you what, watching these videos,
• 1:04:23
  you know that the civilians got far more
• 1:04:27
  injuries than 64.
• 1:04:30
  It's a, it's a, they're terrible videos.
• 1:04:33
  They're, they're, they're horrible videos.
• 1:04:38
  You cannot die like this, said Fakir's sister.
• 1:04:41
  Her, his, her name is Khadija, told the
• 1:04:45
  newspaper, the police are supposed to protect us.
• 1:04:50
  If someone is agitated, you have to calm
• 1:04:52
  them down, not kill them like a dog.
• 1:04:56
  And the prosecutors have opened a probe and
• 1:05:00
  requested the officers' body cam footage.
• 1:05:02
  Prime Minister Maloney said the death may, must
• 1:05:06
  be fully investigated, but did say that nothing
• 1:05:09
  can justify violence against law enforcement.
• 1:05:15
  The incident sparked a real political row in
• 1:05:18
  Italy, with opposition parties accused the government of
• 1:05:21
  fostering a climate of hostility.
• 1:05:26
  Senator Il, let's see if I say this
• 1:05:29
  correctly, Ilaria Cucci, whose brother died in police
• 1:05:33
  custody in 2009, condemned the officers' conduct and
• 1:05:37
  criticized expressions of support for police following Fakir's
• 1:05:43
  death.
• 1:05:43
  The case has revived scrutiny into allegations of
• 1:05:47
  racial discrimination in Italian policing.
• 1:05:50
  In 2024, the Council of the European Union
• 1:05:54
  Commission Against Racism and Intolerance said Italian law
• 1:05:58
  enforcement had engaged in racial profiling and targeted
• 1:06:02
  Roma communities and people of African descent.
• 1:06:07
  Prime Minister Giorgia Maloney rejected the findings, saying
• 1:06:10
  police deserve respect rather than insult, and other
• 1:06:14
  members of her government also dismissed the report.
• 1:06:17
  The dispute deepens a broader political debate over
• 1:06:22
  institutional racism and policing in Italy.
• 1:06:25
  In Italy, the incident has drawn comparison to
• 1:06:28
  the death of George Floyd, who died in
• 1:06:32
  2020 while being restrained by American police, as
• 1:06:35
  well as the enforcement tactics used by U
• 1:06:38
  .S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement under the old
• 1:06:42
  Trumpster.
• 1:06:42
  So they got plenty of violence going on
• 1:06:51
  over there.
• 1:06:54
  Let's see.
• 1:06:56
  I wanted to, and I'm not sure I'm
• 1:06:58
  going to do it today.
• 1:06:59
  Let's talk about this.
• 1:07:02
  There's a Mexican national who claimed the president
• 1:07:05
  caused him public embarrassment by exploiting his murder
• 1:07:09
  case for political gain.
• 1:07:11
  So a Mexican national, this is a great
• 1:07:15
  story.
• 1:07:16
  A Mexican national serving a decades-long prison
• 1:07:19
  sentence for murdering a Michigan woman has filed
• 1:07:22
  a federal lawsuit against President Trump.
• 1:07:26
  He seeks $75 million in damage, a public
• 1:07:31
  apology, and American citizenship.
• 1:07:35
  And he said that the case was exploited
• 1:07:37
  by Trump for political gain.
• 1:07:38
  I meant to download the lawsuit itself.
• 1:07:43
  I'm going to see what it includes in
• 1:07:47
  it because I want to read the whole
• 1:07:48
  thing.
• 1:07:49
  Brandon Ortiz Vita, who's 27, is serving a
• 1:07:53
  sentence of 39 to 102 years after pleading
• 1:07:57
  guilty to the murder of Ruby Garcia in
• 1:08:02
  Grand Rapids, Michigan in 2020.
• 1:08:04
  Prosecutors say he shot Garcia multiple times before
• 1:08:09
  abandoning her body along a highway and driving
• 1:08:12
  away in her vehicle.
• 1:08:14
  Ortiz Vita previously had been deported from the
• 1:08:17
  U.S. but later re-entered the country
• 1:08:20
  illegally in a handwritten complaint filed in federal
• 1:08:25
  court.
• 1:08:27
  Ortiz Vita named Trump and White House communications
• 1:08:30
  director Stephen Chung as defendants.
• 1:08:32
  He alleges that Trump turned him into a
• 1:08:35
  national symbol during the 2024 presidential campaign by
• 1:08:40
  repeatedly highlighting his case in speeches and advertisements
• 1:08:44
  focused on illegal immigration.
• 1:08:46
  During a campaign event in Grand Rapids, Trump
• 1:08:50
  described Ortiz Vita as America's problem and later
• 1:08:55
  featured his mugshot in campaign advertisements referring to
• 1:08:59
  murderers, rapists, and drug traffickers living illegally in
• 1:09:04
  the United States.
• 1:09:07
  Brandon Ortiz Vita claims the publicity subjected him
• 1:09:15
  to harassment behind bars and reduced him to
• 1:09:19
  a stereotype.
• 1:09:22
  Now he's a stereotype.
• 1:09:24
  I was put into a category, he said.
• 1:09:28
  Who I was as a person no longer
• 1:09:31
  matters.
• 1:09:32
  What about your victim?
• 1:09:34
  Who she was as a person, does that
• 1:09:36
  matter?
• 1:09:37
  What only mattered was my race, he wrote
• 1:09:41
  in the complaint.
• 1:09:43
  Ortiz Vita argued that Trump unfairly politicized the
• 1:09:47
  case.
• 1:09:48
  Claimed the publicity belittled me, shattered my dignity
• 1:09:54
  and what I was as a person.
• 1:09:57
  The shame it brought to my family name
• 1:09:59
  is a reality I have to live with
• 1:10:02
  now.
• 1:10:03
  So the shame was all because of Trump
• 1:10:05
  and not because you murdered a woman and
• 1:10:08
  stole her car.
• 1:10:09
  Oh, Ortiz Vita is seeking $75 million in
• 1:10:14
  damage, a public apology, and U.S. citizenship
• 1:10:17
  from Trump, by the way.
• 1:10:19
  He alleges the President's repeated reference to his
• 1:10:22
  case caused him public humiliation.
• 1:10:25
  Legal experts cited by U.S. media have
• 1:10:28
  said the lawsuit is unlikely to succeed.
• 1:10:32
  You think?
• 1:10:33
  Former federal prosecutor Matthew Borgula said federal courts
• 1:10:38
  are required to screen prisoner lawsuits before they
• 1:10:41
  can proceed and argued this complaint is unlikely
• 1:10:44
  to survive the process.
• 1:10:46
  Being publicly embarrassed by a politician isn't a
• 1:10:50
  constitutional violation, said Borgula.
• 1:10:53
  Adding that Trump's statements about Ortiz Vita were
• 1:10:57
  substantially true.
• 1:11:00
  Oh, I'm sorry.
• 1:11:04
  I don't mean to laugh about that.
• 1:11:06
  But, you know, ways to waste the money
• 1:11:10
  of the American taxpayer.
• 1:11:14
  Did you hear about that?
• 1:11:16
  And on that similar topic, this really frustrates
• 1:11:20
  me.
• 1:11:22
  U.S. Department of Homeland Security has slammed
• 1:11:26
  Democratic Minnesota Governor Tim Walz for pardoning an
• 1:11:30
  illegal migrant convicted of sexually assaulting a 10
• 1:11:35
  -year-old girl.
• 1:11:37
  This really did bother me, and I didn't
• 1:11:40
  bring it up.
• 1:11:41
  I forgot to do it.
• 1:11:42
  But DHS described the Minnesota Board of Pardons'
• 1:11:46
  decision as madness, noted in a press release
• 1:11:49
  on Wednesday that clemency will thwart the planned
• 1:11:52
  deportation of the Laotian National.
• 1:11:55
  This pardon will take away the child rapist
• 1:11:58
  qualifying conviction that made him removable from the
• 1:12:01
  United States.
• 1:12:03
  Well, you can still get rid of him.
• 1:12:05
  Secretary of Homeland Security Mark Wayne Mullen also
• 1:12:09
  wrote on X that the Minnesota Governor's decision
• 1:12:12
  to pardon an illegal alien rapist, well, child
• 1:12:17
  rapist, is horrific.
• 1:12:18
  And it really is.
• 1:12:20
  The board that includes Walz, State Attorney General
• 1:12:23
  Keith Ellison, and Minnesota Supreme Court Justice Natalie
• 1:12:28
  Hudson granted pardon to Thu Lu Vang on
• 1:12:32
  June the 10th.
• 1:12:33
  The board took into consideration the fact that
• 1:12:36
  the state's Clemency Review Commission approved the migrant's
• 1:12:39
  petition in April.
• 1:12:42
  Vang, 42, was convicted of first-degree criminal
• 1:12:47
  sexual assault in 2006 after he entered a
• 1:12:54
  plea deal to spare him prison time.
• 1:12:57
  He admitted to repeatedly sexually assaulting a girl
• 1:13:01
  between 2002 and 2004, but justified his actions
• 1:13:05
  saying, it's a cultural thing to marry and
• 1:13:09
  have sex with girls as young as 12.
• 1:13:12
  Following his conviction, Vang, who entered the U
• 1:13:16
  .S. as a refugee in 1994, lost his
• 1:13:20
  immigration status and was issued a final order
• 1:13:23
  of removal by Department of Justice Immigration Judge.
• 1:13:27
  However, since Laos had for years refused to
• 1:13:31
  accept a large number of deportees, the convicted
• 1:13:34
  sex offender remained in the U.S. on
• 1:13:37
  supervised release.
• 1:13:39
  Uh-huh.
• 1:13:41
  The Laos government reportedly was more accommodating after
• 1:13:44
  President Trump returned to office in 2025.
• 1:13:47
  With hundreds of decades-old removal orders now
• 1:13:51
  being in force, Vang was apprehended last December
• 1:13:54
  and was awaiting deportation since.
• 1:13:59
  In his letter to the board, Vang claimed
• 1:14:01
  that he regretted his action and specifically argued
• 1:14:07
  that a pardon would help him stay in
• 1:14:09
  the U.S. with his wife and six
• 1:14:11
  children, according to the newspaper.
• 1:14:14
  Since his criminal record has effectively been wiped
• 1:14:17
  clean, he now stands a chance of fighting
• 1:14:20
  the deportation order.
• 1:14:22
  In a statement to the New York Times,
• 1:14:25
  the office of Attorney General Ellison said that
• 1:14:28
  the Minnesota Board of Pardons made a unanimous
• 1:14:32
  decision to grant to Vang the pardon after
• 1:14:35
  an exhaustive process which included a statement of
• 1:14:38
  support for the pardon from the victim, a
• 1:14:42
  recommendation to grant the pardon from the Clemency
• 1:14:45
  Review Commission, and a large number of community
• 1:14:48
  support letters.
• 1:14:50
  Meanwhile, the Ramsey County Attorney's Office, which handled
• 1:14:54
  Vang's prosecution, opposed the pardon.
• 1:14:57
  It noted that the unusual leniency of his
• 1:15:00
  sentence, 30 years probation, was due in part
• 1:15:05
  to the fact that the victim, who was
• 1:15:09
  12 at the time, was experiencing pressure from
• 1:15:12
  her own family not to cooperate back then.
• 1:15:16
  According to the DHS, it was not the
• 1:15:19
  first instance of the Clemency Review Commission granting
• 1:15:23
  pardon to an illegal alien with a dangerous
• 1:15:27
  criminal history to keep him in the country.
• 1:15:30
  Yeah, I don't like that.
• 1:15:32
  I don't like it at all.
• 1:15:38
  Well, I wonder if a major, you know,
• 1:15:42
  if you're like me, you sit around and
• 1:15:45
  you ponder things, and I've been pondering lately
• 1:15:49
  whether the activities of what's going on now
• 1:15:53
  are going to create a major war.
• 1:15:58
  The U.S. and Iran have been exchanging
• 1:16:01
  regular strikes for nearly two weeks.
• 1:16:07
  Following the collapse of the MOU, both sides
• 1:16:13
  accuse each other of violating the MOU.
• 1:16:16
  Washington and Tehran particularly clash over the fate
• 1:16:19
  of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route.
• 1:16:24
  Iran maintains it should define the rules for
• 1:16:26
  ships passing through the Strait under the MOU,
• 1:16:29
  which is what the MOU said, by the
• 1:16:31
  way, while the U.S. demands the Islamic
• 1:16:34
  Republic fully reopen it to international navigation.
• 1:16:38
  Neither side has demonstrated any signs of backing
• 1:16:43
  down, as both Washington and Tehran have fallen
• 1:16:47
  back into escalatory rhetoric, with exchanges of fire
• 1:16:51
  continuing daily.
• 1:16:53
  The latest outbreak of hostilities between the U
• 1:16:57
  .S. and Iran began July 7, when Washington
• 1:17:00
  announced a new round of powerful strikes targeting
• 1:17:04
  the Islamic Republic.
• 1:17:06
  The U.S. said that the strikes followed
• 1:17:09
  Iranian attacks on three tankers in the Strait
• 1:17:11
  of Hormuz.
• 1:17:12
  Tehran has not officially accepted responsibility for those
• 1:17:19
  strikes.
• 1:17:20
  Iranian media reported that one of the vessels
• 1:17:22
  was struck after ignoring repeated warnings.
• 1:17:26
  Tehran also repeatedly stated that traffic through the
• 1:17:29
  strategic waterway should be conducted through the routes
• 1:17:32
  officially designated by Iran, while calling what the
• 1:17:38
  U.S.-backed route along the Omani coast as
• 1:17:41
  illegal.
• 1:17:43
  Following the tanker incidents, U.S. Central Command
• 1:17:46
  said American forces struck more than 80 targets
• 1:17:49
  in Iran in response to a clear violation
• 1:17:53
  of the ceasefire.
• 1:17:55
  The Iranian Foreign Ministry said the move is
• 1:17:59
  an MOU violation, and the nation's military vowed
• 1:18:03
  a decisive response.
• 1:18:05
  Iranian media reported that the IRGC and the
• 1:18:09
  military launched missiles and drones at 85 key
• 1:18:14
  U.S. military facilities across the Middle East.
• 1:18:18
  Shortly after the strikes, Trump declared the April
• 1:18:22
  ceasefire with Iran over and called the Iranian
• 1:18:25
  leadership scum.
• 1:18:29
  Scum!
• 1:18:31
  On July 13, he told Congress he had
• 1:18:34
  resumed limited defensive strikes while the U.S.
• 1:18:38
  military daily attacks on dozens of Iranian targets.
• 1:18:44
  The White House reportedly claimed the move gave
• 1:18:49
  Trump a new 60 days window.
• 1:18:51
  That's all he wanted, was a new window
• 1:18:53
  to continue operations without seeking congressional consent.
• 1:18:58
  He threatened to expand attacks on civilian infrastructure.
• 1:19:01
  He's seen how popular it is among the
• 1:19:04
  Ukrainians and wants to use it in Iran.
• 1:19:08
  You know, you blow up everything in the
• 1:19:11
  infrastructure, including power plants, bridges, if Tehran refuses
• 1:19:15
  U.S. demands, a threat that was acted
• 1:19:17
  on within days.
• 1:19:18
  Trump claimed the U.S. would take over
• 1:19:21
  the Strait of Hormuz and charge vessels for
• 1:19:24
  passage, declared himself Tehran's number one target, and
• 1:19:28
  threatened to completely decimate Iran if it targeted
• 1:19:32
  him.
• 1:19:35
  Tehran condemns the aggressive attack carried out by
• 1:19:38
  the U.S. terrorist army under a false
• 1:19:42
  pretext, while Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to
• 1:19:48
  Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed severe punishment for
• 1:19:53
  the strikes.
• 1:19:53
  Top negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf said Washington would pay
• 1:19:57
  the price for not honoring its commitments.
• 1:20:00
  The era of one-sided deals is over,
• 1:20:02
  he said, and added that reality is knocking.
• 1:20:06
  In a July 13 statement, they said the
• 1:20:09
  Strait of Hormuz is our territory and argued
• 1:20:12
  that it would remain open only if the
• 1:20:14
  U.S. ended its illegal military interventions in
• 1:20:17
  the area.
• 1:20:19
  Tehran announced a strait closure in response to
• 1:20:23
  U.S. strikes in early July.
• 1:20:26
  The American military disputes the claim, but Reuters
• 1:20:29
  site shipping data shows tanker traffic falling to
• 1:20:33
  its lowest level in two months.
• 1:20:35
  An Iranian intelligence official told the newspaper last
• 1:20:40
  Thursday that Tehran has a plan for escalating
• 1:20:43
  the war that is full of surprises, and
• 1:20:47
  warned that the entire region will pay the
• 1:20:49
  price if the U.S. continues targeting Iranian
• 1:20:53
  civilian infrastructure as part of a war of
• 1:20:57
  attrition.
• 1:20:59
  The Pentagon confirms that at least four American
• 1:21:02
  soldiers, I think the number is five now,
• 1:21:04
  killed since the latest escalation began in July,
• 1:21:08
  nearly 100 service members injured.
• 1:21:11
  U.S. Department of War spokesman Sean Parnell
• 1:21:14
  said, adding that most injuries were minor and
• 1:21:18
  96% of those affected had returned to
• 1:21:21
  duty.
• 1:21:21
  The New York Times reported Monday that the
• 1:21:24
  Pentagon was concealing the true scale of U
• 1:21:26
  .S. casualties.
• 1:21:27
  Yeah, that's certainly believed by me.
• 1:21:30
  And said dozens of soldiers had been injured
• 1:21:33
  in three unreported Iranian strikes on U.S.
• 1:21:36
  forces in Jordan, and several helicopters were also
• 1:21:39
  damaged.
• 1:21:40
  U.S. strikes on Iran have killed at
• 1:21:42
  least 50 people and injured more than 500,
• 1:21:45
  according to AP, over the weekend.
• 1:21:47
  Both sides reported strikes on military and infrastructure
• 1:21:51
  sites and published the videos online.
• 1:21:55
  The IRGC claims last week to have hit
• 1:21:57
  military bases in Jordan and Kuwait.
• 1:21:59
  A U.S. drone command center and an
• 1:22:02
  AI hub and drone storage facility in Bahrain,
• 1:22:06
  while also saying it destroyed a HIMARS launcher
• 1:22:08
  and a Patriot air defense system.
• 1:22:10
  CENTCOM did not comment on the Iranian claims,
• 1:22:14
  they never do, and reported attacks on dozens
• 1:22:17
  of targets at multiple locations, including Iranian air
• 1:22:21
  defense, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities,
• 1:22:25
  and small boats.
• 1:22:27
  Iranian media reported U.S. attacks on bridges
• 1:22:31
  in central and southern Iran, as well as
• 1:22:34
  on Iranshahr airport and a southern port city.
• 1:22:40
  IRGC stressed that the bridge strikes caused civilian
• 1:22:43
  casualties.
• 1:22:44
  Hostilities in Iran's de facto closure of the
• 1:22:47
  Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices higher,
• 1:22:50
  as we already know.
• 1:22:54
  So, how's the world reacting?
• 1:22:56
  The U.N. repeatedly voiced its concern over
• 1:23:00
  the latest escalation.
• 1:23:03
  Calls for a new diplomatic push, same old
• 1:23:06
  bullcrap, next day.
• 1:23:08
  Same old crap, different day.
• 1:23:11
  Last week, U.N. spokesperson Farhan Haque said,
• 1:23:14
  Secretary General Antonio Guterres was particularly concerned about
• 1:23:19
  attacks on civilian infrastructure in Iran and across
• 1:23:21
  the region and called them unacceptable.
• 1:23:25
  Pakistan, which has been the mediator before, urged
• 1:23:29
  all sides to exercise restraint and refrain from
• 1:23:32
  actions that could destabilize the region.
• 1:23:36
  I don't think that's gonna happen.
• 1:23:39
  Yeah.
• 1:23:40
  What is the latest?
• 1:23:43
  America's policy of ever-expanding military attack on
• 1:23:46
  Iran has led to yet another stalemate, said
• 1:23:50
  the Washington Post on Monday, inciting the latest
• 1:23:54
  intelligence assessment.
• 1:23:56
  The report, written primarily by the CIA, stated
• 1:24:00
  that Iran will survive a U.S. naval
• 1:24:02
  blockade for months and is unlikely to change
• 1:24:05
  its negotiating position because of continued U.S.
• 1:24:09
  strikes, the paper reported.
• 1:24:12
  Washington and Tehran risk remaining in an indefinite
• 1:24:15
  limbo between peace and war, the paper warned.
• 1:24:19
  It also reported separately that the U.S.
• 1:24:23
  was planning for a wider war, despite lacking
• 1:24:27
  resources for any sort of prolonged campaign.
• 1:24:31
  On Friday, Axios reported that Washington notified Israel
• 1:24:36
  that it was sending dozens of additional refueling
• 1:24:38
  planes ahead of a possible expansion of operations
• 1:24:42
  in Iran.
• 1:24:43
  Saeed Golkar, an expert on Iran's security service,
• 1:24:47
  told the Wall Street Journal that escalation was
• 1:24:50
  rapidly intensifying and getting out of control, as
• 1:24:54
  both sides risk plunging into total war.
• 1:25:00
  Which would, you know, make Pete Hegseth, old
• 1:25:03
  put-me-in coach, very, very happy.
• 1:25:07
  He would be so happy to be the
• 1:25:09
  guy in charge of a war.
• 1:25:11
  He would love it.
• 1:25:14
  Let's see.
• 1:25:18
  Do I want to...
• 1:25:19
  I got time for one more story.
• 1:25:24
  Let's see.
• 1:25:25
  Should we go to Ukrainian corruption or save
• 1:25:28
  that for tomorrow?
• 1:25:29
  Nah, let's go to Ed Milibrand.
• 1:25:31
  Who is this guy?
• 1:25:33
  So, London's top diplomat faces criticism.
• 1:25:37
  If you think anything's different under this guy,
• 1:25:40
  let's see.
• 1:25:41
  Prime Minister Andy Burnham has appointed former Labour
• 1:25:47
  leader and net-zero architect Ed Milibrand as
• 1:25:51
  Foreign Secretary, despite concerns over his past record
• 1:25:55
  and lack of any sort of diplomatic experience.
• 1:25:58
  Burnham made the announcement on Monday.
• 1:26:00
  He replaced Keir Starmer, who resigned following falling
• 1:26:03
  public support, heavy labour losses in local election,
• 1:26:07
  and a series of scandals in government.
• 1:26:09
  Milibrand, 56, previously served as Starmer's Energy Secretary
• 1:26:14
  in 2024 as one of the former Prime
• 1:26:17
  Minister's most prominent Cabinet members.
• 1:26:20
  He was widely regarded as the mastermind of
• 1:26:23
  the controversial net-zero programme to completely decarbonise
• 1:26:28
  electricity generation in the UK by 2030.
• 1:26:31
  He previously led Labour between 2010 and 2015,
• 1:26:35
  but resigned after the party lost that year's
• 1:26:38
  election.
• 1:26:39
  His appointment as Foreign Secretary has revived criticism
• 1:26:43
  of his record as Energy Secretary.
• 1:26:45
  Conservatives, Reform UK, trade unions and sections of
• 1:26:49
  British media accuse him of worsening Britain's energy
• 1:26:52
  crisis through his efforts to accelerate transition to
• 1:26:55
  renewable power and opposition to new North Sea
• 1:26:59
  drilling.
• 1:27:01
  Trade unions criticise his restrictions on oil and
• 1:27:04
  gas.
• 1:27:04
  Milibrand dismissed the accusations, claiming the volatile international
• 1:27:09
  gas prices and Britain's dependence on imported fuel
• 1:27:12
  are responsible for the rising bills.
• 1:27:15
  He insists that further expanding renewable power would
• 1:27:18
  eventually make energy cheaper.
• 1:27:22
  Telegraph reports the White House is deeply concerned
• 1:27:26
  by his appointment, particularly due to his role
• 1:27:30
  in defeating a 2013 proposal for British military
• 1:27:33
  action in Syria.
• 1:27:35
  He had reportedly encouraged Starmer to deny the
• 1:27:38
  US access to British bases in the early
• 1:27:42
  stages of the US-Israel war on Iran.
• 1:27:47
  In his first statement, Milibrand promised to defend
• 1:27:51
  British interests, strengthen the country's alliances, seek an
• 1:27:54
  end to the Iran conflict and pursue peace
• 1:27:56
  between Israel and Palestine.
• 1:27:59
  Meanwhile, Prime Minister Burnham promises an era of
• 1:28:02
  hope and renewal for the UK.
• 1:28:04
  However, he has so far largely retained Starmer
• 1:28:10
  -era foreign policy points.
• 1:28:12
  There's not going to be any change.
• 1:28:13
  Pledging continued support for Ukraine, NATO, close military
• 1:28:17
  cooperation with the EU and increased defence spending.
• 1:28:20
  Gee, surprise, surprise.
• 1:28:22
  Despite the country's escalating cost-of-living crisis,
• 1:28:25
  weakened public service and rising unemployment.
• 1:28:29
  Despite promising a hard line on Israel, it
• 1:28:32
  remains unclear how tough Burnham will really be,
• 1:28:36
  given that he and 11 of 22 cabinet
• 1:28:38
  members in the newly formed government are members
• 1:28:41
  of the Labour Friends of Israel group, which
• 1:28:45
  promotes Israeli interests in the UK.
• 1:28:48
  So, the end of that sentence is, nothing
• 1:28:52
  changes Starmer versus Burnham.
• 1:28:56
  Nothing changes.
• 1:28:57
  And Milibrand still has substantial power to wield
• 1:29:02
  inside of...
• 1:29:06
  What do you call it?
• 1:29:08
  Great Britain.
• 1:29:10
  Which, I wonder if it's really that great
• 1:29:11
  anymore.
• 1:29:12
  Maybe we should just call it Britain.
• 1:29:13
  Who the Britons?
• 1:29:14
  We all are.
• 1:29:15
  We're all Britons.
• 1:29:16
  And I'm your king.
• 1:29:17
  Well, I didn't vote for you.
• 1:29:19
  Anyway, tomorrow we should meet again on International
• 1:29:24
  Flavor, 7.30 to 9 a.m. Have
• 1:29:28
  a beautiful day.