Latest / The Learning Corner by Precursor / Episode #25: Startup Media Hype Circles, 11x Tech Crunch Article, Market Arbitrage in Venture
Transcript
- 0:00If you're working on this company because you enjoy it and because you like it and because
- 0:03it's personally meaningful to you, by all means, keep going.
- 0:06If that isn't the case, we should talk about other ways for you to spend your time because
- 0:10time is the one thing as a founder you just don't get back, and spending a bunch of time on
- 0:14the business you're not interested in that isn't gonna have a big outcome just isn't a
- 0:18good use of your time, period.
- 0:20It's the week of March 24.
- 0:22Welcome to the Learning Corner, Precursor Ventures podcast.
- 0:30Welcome to the learning's corner by Precursor.
- 0:32I'm Mia Farnam, and I'm going by our GPA and managing partner, Charles Hudson, where we will
- 0:37be talking through the articles and Goodreads that caught our team's attention over the past
- 0:41week.
- 0:42Topic number one in a really thoughtful LinkedIn post from this past week, GP of
- 0:46Flybridge, Jesse Middleton, reflects on how the venture ecosystem often values optics over
- 0:51nuance, especially when it comes to fun or flashy startup announcements, reminds us that
- 0:56success often comes with years of brine and quiet resilience.
- 1:00What specifically resonated with me is his example of founders feeling like they have to
- 1:04hold out for this giant valuation or sale.
- 1:07Perhaps it is a better long term decision for their team, investors, and even themselves to
- 1:12sell earlier or just consider less grand landings.
- 1:15Jesse mentioned he always wants his founders to shoot for massive success, but oftentimes, the
- 1:20more tangible wins and landings can be overlooked because everyone is trying to keep
- 1:24up with, I would say, almost imaginary benchmarks.
- 1:27Wanted to get your take on how to balance those conversations and expectations with founders.
- 1:32I think the venture model in some ways is, like, clear and cruel at the same time.
- 1:38The goal is to fund companies you think are gonna have massive outcomes, and I don't know
- 1:42very many VCs who regularly back companies where the expectation is that there's gonna be
- 1:47a small outcome.
- 1:48But once you put your money in and you start working with the team, you learn about the
- 1:51people running the company, you learn about the state of the market.
- 1:54And sometimes the only conclusion you can reach is this isn't gonna be a huge outcome.
- 1:58Then the question's like, well, what do we do with this company?
- 2:00And I think oftentimes it depends on what the founders want.
- 2:02Sometimes the founders are like, hey.
- 2:04We've had this in our portfolio.
- 2:05I like running this profitable version of this company.
- 2:07I'm gonna continue to operate it, and I will either find a way to get your money back
- 2:11through the profits we generate, or I'm gonna keep running this because I think there's
- 2:15something on the horizon that's gonna change, that's gonna make the business more valuable in
- 2:19the future than it's perceived to be today.
- 2:21And I always tell founders at some point, I'm like, look.
- 2:23You don't owe me anything.
- 2:24Usually, somewhere around year five or six, if the business hasn't broken out and the
- 2:28founder's still working on it, often go to them and say, if you're working on this company
- 2:31because you enjoy it and because you like it and because it's personally meaningful to you,
- 2:35by all means, keep going.
- 2:36If that isn't the case, we should talk about other ways for you to spend your time because
- 2:41time is the one thing as a founder you just don't get back, and spending a bunch of time on
- 2:45the business you're not interested in that isn't gonna have a big outcome just isn't a
- 2:48good use of your time, period.
- 2:50So I spent a lot of time talking to funders about that, and you have to be careful about
- 2:54being mindful of when you have permission as an investor to even initiate that conversation.
- 2:58So that's one.
- 2:59And then I think on the other side, I see a lot of people who are like, oh, you know, like, why
- 3:02are people making these blog posts and articles about acqui hires?
- 3:05Starting something is really hard.
- 3:07And while not every venture, exit tickets announced in the press, made money for founders
- 3:12or investors, I've just become very sympathetic over time to the desire for founders to frame
- 3:17the last few years, in some cases, maybe even decade of work in a positive light and have the
- 3:22opportunity to be lauded and, you know, congratulated by the community for landing the
- 3:26plane.
- 3:26Because as me, as you know, most of the companies we invest in, there's nothing that
- 3:29comes back when they don't work out.
- 3:31So as I tell founders, like, getting anything back puts you in pretty rare air.
- 3:34Now I do think it's sometimes a little strange when I see people doing the victory lap tour
- 3:38for an acquihire that return 5¢ on a dollar, but, like, it's not for me to judge.
- 3:42I think the same thing is true of fund announcements.
- 3:44You know, I've seen people in our business who announce oversubscribed funds because they cut
- 3:48the target in half.
- 3:49And I'm just sort of like, I don't know.
- 3:51For some people, being able to say our fund was oversubscribed is really important.
- 3:54And, again, I feel like that's not for me to judge.
- 3:57In this environment, raising any money is super difficult.
- 3:59And if that's something people wanna celebrate, whether it was exactly what they planned to
- 4:03raise or not, I think it's tough.
- 4:04But I think from the outside looking in, I'm sympathetic because you read some of these
- 4:07announcements.
- 4:08Like, wow.
- 4:08That company must have sold for a billion dollars with the amount of people that were
- 4:12thanked in the LinkedIn post, and then you realize people didn't even get their money
- 4:15back.
- 4:15Do you feel like those conversations talking about softer landing are easier to maybe groach
- 4:21when it's earlier on in the startup journey when maybe they don't have maybe the public
- 4:26commenting?
- 4:26I think the hardest situations are ones where the founder has a big public profile and the
- 4:31business simply isn't working.
- 4:33And then when I say big public profile, that can be on x, on LinkedIn, on whatever social
- 4:37media platforms of choice.
- 4:39If they've tried to sort of build a personal brand or a following around being successful,
- 4:44sometimes I've seen it in our portfolio, that makes these smaller acquisitions or soft
- 4:48landings harder because the person's built themselves up in the public as someone, and
- 4:53they have to reconcile that with the outcome of their company.
- 4:55So there's that.
- 4:56I think the other thing is it's very hard to have these conversations if you're not sure
- 5:00that the founder himself or herself is also at the same point of realization about the
- 5:05businesses you are as an investor.
- 5:07Sometimes I'll explicitly ask people like, hey.
- 5:09I'm not sure we're on the venture scale.
- 5:11Are you open to talking about alternative paths?
- 5:13And I think right now, we have, in the venture business, a bunch of unicorns that were minted
- 5:17in '20 and '20 and 2021, which may or may not ever be worth their last round's valuations.
- 5:22In some cases, those companies aren't worth anything.
- 5:24In some cases, they're probably worth something but less than they were valued.
- 5:27And, like, how do you navigate those conversations?
- 5:30Because, you know, there are VCs whose careers are tied to those high rounds and those high
- 5:34marks.
- 5:35There are founders whose egos and just, unfortunately, maybe some cases, even self
- 5:39worth is tied to those marks.
- 5:40And in many cases, they no longer reflect reality.
- 5:43So that's why I think this unwinding takes so long.
- 5:45It's also just the nature of venture and startup ecosystem.
- 5:48I feel like so much of it is just sharing publicly via content.
- 5:52That's just something that's inherently part of our ecosystem, which is wonderful because you
- 5:56get to see what other people are doing, but so much of it is a storytelling exercise.
- 6:00The best piece of advice is to just not keep blinders on, but just have the wherewithal to
- 6:05just focus on what you're doing.
- 6:06And I've even talked to founders who've been like, oh my god.
- 6:09One of our competitors acquired.
- 6:10What does that mean?
- 6:11Because in venture, most private deals, the amount never gets announced.
- 6:15The structure never gets announced.
- 6:16I'm like, well, that company that you thought was, like, your big bad competitor, they just
- 6:20got acqui hired.
- 6:21Yes.
- 6:21I know what the announcement said.
- 6:23Yes.
- 6:23I know what the company blog post said.
- 6:26I have some information about the actual transaction that you should know about.
- 6:29And I think that's the other thing that's hard when you're outside looking in.
- 6:32There's almost never numbers mentioned unless they're very big.
- 6:34And so the readers left to wonder, was this like a teeny tiny acquihire?
- 6:38And I've seen some things that sounded like acqui hires, and you peel back the coverage
- 6:41like, oh, no.
- 6:41That was actually a meaningful transaction on the part of the buyer.
- 6:45Some investors commented on Jesse's post saying that a call to more transparency is needed
- 6:49across all points along the startup and venture chain to essentially make it easier founders
- 6:53and their investors to call it, like, the right moments.
- 6:56I'd agree with this, but also would say it takes participation by everyone, your founders,
- 7:02your investors, your board member, LPs, journalists even.
- 7:05Where do you think the greatest tension might live?
- 7:08I think we go through these moments where you get these, like, really great postmortem posts
- 7:13from people.
- 7:14And those, you know, I feel like once or twice a quarter, somebody will write one that goes
- 7:17viral, and everyone's like, wow.
- 7:19That sounds painful for you.
- 7:21I just think there's more attention and energy and interest in things on the way up than on
- 7:25the way down.
- 7:26And I think practically speaking, it means that, like, people are much more excited about
- 7:31reading about good news.
- 7:32Look.
- 7:32I think salacious bad news, you know, corporate espionage or CEO misbehavior, tech tabloid
- 7:38stuff.
- 7:39But just generally, hey.
- 7:40This company raised a bunch of money and isn't that successful through no misdeeds of its own,
- 7:45just misestimated the market.
- 7:47Those stories take a lot of nuance.
- 7:49We have a handful of journalists who I think are good at writing those pieces, but we don't
- 7:52have as much of that.
- 7:54And I really do think as an investor, if you try to have this conversation prematurely, and
- 7:58by prematurely, mean, you have kinda, like, permission to have it with the founder.
- 8:03I've done that before mistakenly a few times, and it's really hurtful to founders, I find,
- 8:07when they're just like, oh, so you don't believe in my company.
- 8:09I'm like, you're right.
- 8:09I probably should have prepped you for this conversation rather than springing it on you.
- 8:13But, yeah, you're right.
- 8:14Like, I don't.
- 8:14When I say don't believe in it, I mean, it is not going to have the scale of outcome that
- 8:18will have a material return to my fund, which doesn't mean I won't help you find a landing
- 8:22spot, but it means that in my mind, I've concluded that this isn't gonna be one of the
- 8:2610 or 15% of companies that really matters to us from a fund return standpoint.
- 8:30And I think when you can have that conversation with people, which is like, look.
- 8:32I'm gonna help you land the plane and find a home mostly out of respect for the sacrifices
- 8:37and energy you've put into building this and less so because I think going from point one x
- 8:42to point two two x return is gonna make a difference.
- 8:45You do it out of respect for the level of effort and commitment people have put into
- 8:48building the business.
- 8:49Next topic.
- 8:50In a piece from TechCrunch written by Dominic Midori Davis and Marina Temkin, it's reported
- 8:55that once taught AI sales automation startup, eleven x, backed by a larger fund, falsely
- 9:00claimed major customers and traction throughout its lifetime.
- 9:0411x offers an AI driven tool designed to automate sales tasks.
- 9:08The company is part of this broader wave of startups merging in the fast growing category
- 9:13of AI SDRs.
- 9:15Founded in 2020, 11x was once a starlet, claiming to have gotten close to 10,000,000 in
- 9:21ARR only two years after inception and raising 75,000,000 apparently in one month.
- 9:26The article shared comments from ex employees and customers, which shed light into the usual
- 9:31red flags of a house of cards startup, creative revenue forecasting, toxic workplace anecdotes,
- 9:37false customer endorsements, and more.
- 9:39One of the things that was shared in the article was that 11x was raising money and
- 9:43sharing traction off of contracted ARR, which is not a new word.
- 9:47You would expect that this means signed, sealed, and delivered contracts between
- 9:51customers and 11x.
- 9:5311x apparently made it difficult to exit pilots and instead asked customers to enter into one
- 9:58year contracts with a clause to terminate if need be.
- 10:01So as these customers churn, instead of just adjusting the revenue, 11x apparently rolled
- 10:07these original contracted numbers as ARR numbers.
- 10:10So in the article, it said that investors, board members were aware of how this was
- 10:15accounted.
- 10:15With all my standard disclaimers, I'm not an investor in 11x.
- 10:18I've never looked at investing in the company.
- 10:19I don't know anything about the inner workings.
- 10:21I will say this.
- 10:22I've had a bunch of my friends who are in the sales business say that these AISTR tools make
- 10:28big promises and don't deliver.
- 10:29And I'm like, well, how do I separate your self serving desire for that to be true as a sales
- 10:34leader and the fact that you are also probably the person who's close to this.
- 10:38So I think rather than talk about the specifics of 11x because I don't have any information
- 10:42beyond what I I know from talking to folks, I do think it's important to remember that
- 10:46whenever investors create a metric or a measurement, there's this, like, short window
- 10:51of time where it's useful, and then it starts to get game.
- 10:54Like, I was joking with someone over the weekend, Tanya and Cheek.
- 10:57I was like, well, now that AI investors are focused on revenue per FTE, how long before
- 11:02startups start making people contractors?
- 11:04So I think startup founders are smart people.
- 11:06And I think once they realize that there is a metric or a data point that investors care
- 11:12about, many of them are smart.
- 11:13When I read the article, was like, well, I get it.
- 11:15Contracted ARR is a widely understood term, and contracted ARR is not really supposed to be at
- 11:21risk.
- 11:21It's supposed to be money that is to be collected but hasn't been recognized.
- 11:25That's how I've always thought about it.
- 11:26Like, oh, we've got a three year deal.
- 11:28It's a million and a half contracted, but we're only gonna recognize it one thirty sixth of a
- 11:32time.
- 11:32So there's the equivalent of a bookings backlog, or it's some way to talk about the
- 11:36difference between what you're recognizing and what's under contract.
- 11:38I think technically speaking, it's not wrong to book a one year deal with a three month out as
- 11:43a one year deal because you wouldn't presumably book the deal if you didn't think that the
- 11:47customer was gonna keep the contract.
- 11:49The part I find puzzling, and I don't know if LFNX actually did this, the notion that once
- 11:53somebody exercises their break clause and decides not to continue, that should be backed
- 11:59out.
- 11:59Unless you have some weirdly punitive thing where you can break the contract, but you're
- 12:02still on the hook for the whole thing, then you can book the whole thing.
- 12:05Then I don't even know what the break clause means.
- 12:07And again, so many investors were like, we hate pilots.
- 12:09We hate trials because it means we're gonna do work to have to evaluate.
- 12:13So in some ways, if you recast the trial as a one year contract with the ninety day out, you
- 12:19kinda get the benefits of looking on the surface like a one year deal and not having to
- 12:24have the questions about pilots and churn for at least ninety days.
- 12:28And if you're growing really quickly and adding a ton of customers, you're always gonna have a
- 12:32bunch of new cohorts of customers who don't yet know if the product works for them.
- 12:36And even if they conclude that it doesn't, they're gonna stick with you for a while.
- 12:40Again, I'm very hesitant to, like, suggest that this was an intentional deception, but I will
- 12:45say we've created a set of incentives in venture that push people towards annual
- 12:50contracts with big numbers on them.
- 12:52And when you have that set of incentives, there will be companies that say, I want my company
- 12:56to be presented in the best light to investors, which means this subset of numbers need to look
- 13:01really strong for me to get investor attention.
- 13:04The other perfect storm is when you have companies that are growing that quick, there's
- 13:08pressure to maybe assume or trust that the investors' understanding of what a word means
- 13:15and the founder's intention are tightly aligned.
- 13:18And so I don't work at Andreessen Horowitz.
- 13:20I don't work at Benchmark.
- 13:21I don't know what was presented to them.
- 13:23I also know that in competitive hot deals, sometimes you put your trust in the fact that
- 13:27contracted ARR has a really specific meaning, and if that's what they're telling you, that
- 13:30they understand the convention.
- 13:32So I don't know.
- 13:32I think it's a good reminder that in this AI world, things can change quickly.
- 13:36And I will also just say this, the logos thing, I've certainly seen companies, sometimes out of
- 13:41laziness, forget to update their website and take down customers who are no longer
- 13:44customers.
- 13:45I've also seen people strategically leave up customers.
- 13:48I mean, I read through that article.
- 13:49It sounded like all of the customers, end quote, had at some point tried the software,
- 13:53but either hadn't bought it or had churned.
- 13:55Prob their logos probably shoulda came down.
- 13:57Again, I don't know why that didn't happen.
- 13:59But I think AI to me feels very 2020.
- 14:01Companies are growing quickly.
- 14:03People have serious FOMO about missing out, which means you have to do high quality
- 14:06diligence in a short period of time, and people not having a shared understanding of what
- 14:11numbers or words mean makes that really hard.
- 14:13When I was reading the article, I felt like it was a story more of, like, an early stage
- 14:18startup who was scrappy and wanting to win customers.
- 14:20And things were falling through the cracks, but not because it was intentional.
- 14:23It was because they were growing so quickly, which obviously can replicate in a higher
- 14:27growth scenario.
- 14:28It reminded me of Memorial Health, like one health startup recently just sold for
- 14:3230,000,000 in a fire sale, but was valued at one point at $430,000,000.
- 14:36Similar thing, like, had pilots going on and then folded in that revenue into a contracted
- 14:41ARR basis even when those folks had fallen off.
- 14:43Again, I'm not part of either team that was brought in here, but it's funny.
- 14:47I read the article and felt like I can imagine how everything led to where it was today.
- 14:52On the other side of the spectrum, I know that there are founders in our own portfolio who
- 14:55actually are much more conservative that I would sometimes argue that they should be even
- 15:00more bullish on their forecasts and forward looking road maps.
- 15:03Obviously, there's a massive difference between predicted numbers and claiming true revenue.
- 15:08How do we draw the line though between founder optimism and an actual misrepresentation?
- 15:15Look.
- 15:15Most VCs assume that even your conservative forecast is wildly optimistic.
- 15:19So if what you're presenting is truly conservative, it's still gonna get discounted
- 15:23by 25%.
- 15:24I find there are certain subpopulations of founders, women and people of color in
- 15:28particular, who tend to be, I think, quite intellectually honest in what they think the
- 15:31business will do.
- 15:32But they're presenting against people whose visions of where the line between optimism and
- 15:37likely is just set at a different standard.
- 15:39So often, they'll be, like, present the numbers that suggest what will happen if everything
- 15:43goes right because whatever you put in that forecast is gonna get discounted back by
- 15:47investors.
- 15:48So if you're adding in a discount on top of that by being overly conservative, you're
- 15:53actually not helping yourself.
- 15:54I just think it's really hard to go to investment community and be like, this company
- 15:57gave me a forecast.
- 15:58It requires no discount.
- 15:59I believe that they're gonna hit this plan.
- 16:01Your partners would be like, how long have you been doing this?
- 16:04No.
- 16:04I need to ask that.
- 16:05Of course, they're being optimistic.
- 16:06If you don't realize that, then you haven't figured out where the optimism is baked into
- 16:11this plan.
- 16:12But it can be anything from, like, they expect CAC to go down over time or expect LTV to go
- 16:17there's always something you can fiddle with.
- 16:19And I think getting people to understand, I think this is still the big divide, is founders
- 16:23put all this time into putting information together, and VCs have 100 x, a thousand x, the
- 16:28pattern recognition reps.
- 16:29So they take all the information you give them, and then they munch it up themselves and try to
- 16:34figure out what does this all mean, which is why I think a bunch of firms I've talked to
- 16:37just ask for the raw data.
- 16:39They're like, just give us the raw cohort data.
- 16:40Give us the raw financials.
- 16:41We know how we wanna torture this data to get it to tell us the answer we want, and we'd
- 16:46rather do it our way than have you present it in a way where we have to then also go back and
- 16:50double check and understand the assumptions.
- 16:52And I would say for founders who are just in the beginnings of their journeys, you can have
- 16:56open conversations about that with investors without discounting success that you feel for
- 17:00your company.
- 17:01I think having those more transparent conversations and showing different scenarios
- 17:05of growth, like, that's what we're gonna be doing on the back end anyways.
- 17:08So preparing yourself for those types of conversations is important because they're
- 17:11inevitably going to come up, especially against your example, if they're asking for the raw
- 17:14data, it's gonna be sliced and diced in seven different ways.
- 17:17So being prepared and armed to have those conversations is actually the best thing that
- 17:21you could possibly do.
- 17:22Our last topic is a great, really well researched essay from Jordan Snell's Substack
- 17:27titled Venture Capitalizing on Arbitrage Windows.
- 17:31Ultimately, the ideal scenario of leveraging an arbitrage market window is that you can come in
- 17:37on deals at great prices with misunderstood but strong founders without as much competition and
- 17:43more room to breathe and grow while everyone else eventually catches you years later.
- 17:47Jordan mentioned a common thread of GPs from these funds, quote, have been thinking deeper
- 17:51and more granularly about a very specific founder profile than most any other investor.
- 17:57The thesis is that this founder profile translates across markets and sectors enough to
- 18:02move in and out of them without first selection.
- 18:05So wanted to get your perspective.
- 18:07I thought it was a really well written article.
- 18:08And as someone who's raised a number of funds as a general, I get all of this pushback from
- 18:12LPs.
- 18:13So we like specialist funds.
- 18:14And I always go, but for how long?
- 18:15And I didn't have the language that this post has because I would tell people, like, hey.
- 18:19If I think about Emergence, one of the firms I really admire, they had a window of time where
- 18:24most people were like, we don't understand this, like, renting software biz this SaaS
- 18:28before predictable revenue.
- 18:29Before we had this whole business, there was a period of time where most people were I like
- 18:33the old enterprise sales model where people buy software and pay for maintenance contracts.
- 18:38They understood a business model transformation that others didn't, and they had an amazing
- 18:43run.
- 18:43And now every multistage, big fund, and small fund does SaaS.
- 18:48So being a SaaS specialist is sort of a weird decision.
- 18:51I think about when Forerunner really figured out some of these early consumer products and
- 18:57consumer companies.
- 18:58Everyone else is like, well, that's not Venture.
- 18:59Well, Venture doesn't do that.
- 19:00Turns out Venture does that now.
- 19:02Maybe does it less than they used to, but there was a moment of time where a lot of other firms
- 19:04said, oh, we wanna be in on this too.
- 19:06And the ability to sort of be first in line and see the best founders the earliest and pay
- 19:12reasonable prices is good.
- 19:13I think the people who've got this right is Union Square.
- 19:16They didn't stick with social networks and network effects as a theory forever.
- 19:20There was a period of time where they understood it in a way that everyone else
- 19:24didn't.
- 19:25They didn't get every great company on that thesis.
- 19:27But at one point, they're kind of like, okay.
- 19:28We're moving on to the next thing.
- 19:29And I think this is the thing I've always been perplexed by when LPs tell me they like
- 19:33specialists.
- 19:33I'm like, me too, but probably for one or two funds.
- 19:36And there's a few funds that have been able to perfect this very rare dance, which is to be
- 19:40specialists and then rotate into a new specialty when your original specialty is no
- 19:45longer unique.
- 19:47I think it's very, hard to do.
- 19:49And then I think about people like my friend Nabil Hyatt who's been able to become a
- 19:54specialist in really specific areas for interesting windows of time, but has also had
- 19:59wisdom to say the time to exploit that is over.
- 20:02And this is funny.
- 20:03I was thinking, that's how I got into African fintech.
- 20:05Was I started meeting these companies in YC where I was like, oh, no one takes these
- 20:08companies seriously.
- 20:09No one thinks you can build anything big on the continent.
- 20:11And then there's a period of time where everyone was like, oh, I want the Stripe for x
- 20:15y z company.
- 20:15I want the coin.
- 20:16And then I was like, oh, well, this is now a consensus good idea, so it's probably not the
- 20:20domain of a specialist.
- 20:22And I think the irony is that by being a generalist, you get to be specialist in a bunch
- 20:25of other weird new areas.
- 20:27And if I think about some of our best companies, they were profoundly not consensus
- 20:32when we invested, whether it's Carrot.
- 20:34Everyone's like fertility benefit.
- 20:36I mean, you had Progyny as a public company.
- 20:37Also, It's not really a thing.
- 20:39The employer's not gonna be in that.
- 20:40If I think about pair eyewear, people are like Warby's all like, bobby baby.
- 20:44There's a theme here.
- 20:45These were all very out of favor venture categories.
- 20:48And I was just like, well, we made money on them because we found these awesome people
- 20:51before everybody else thought they were great.
- 20:54And think everyone's like, there's only one way to make money in venture, be consensus.
- 20:57And I'm like, no.
- 20:58You can also just be the person that the very best people choose.
- 21:01That's actually another way to make money in venture is to just win the consensus good deals
- 21:05consistently.
- 21:05And so I think this was the best sort of framing because I think LPs are always like,
- 21:10well, specialists have it easier.
- 21:11I have friends who were running AI focused venture funds five or seven years ago, and they
- 21:16were way ahead of the curve.
- 21:17Most people were like, this is not a theme around which one could build an entire fund.
- 21:21Now AI is venture in the same way that SAS was venture five years ago.
- 21:25And I think, you know, I'm on the IC at Screen Door, and sometimes people are like, we're
- 21:28gonna be an AI focused fund.
- 21:29I'm like, why would you do that today?
- 21:31It just doesn't make sense.
- 21:33Like, it's a consensus good idea.
- 21:34And I think that's the challenge either for us.
- 21:36So I always tell LPs, which problem would you rather have?
- 21:39Being a generalist and trying to figure out how to get in front of the most interesting people
- 21:43working in new areas or be a specialist where you're constantly watching the clock on your
- 21:47arbitrage opportunity and wondering when you'll have to pivot to the next thing.
- 21:51I would much prefer to be a generalist who's trying to find where are the new areas of
- 21:55interest.
- 21:56Like, we saw a lot of crypto stuff early.
- 21:57I just didn't understand it.
- 21:58In some ways, I still don't understand it.
- 21:59But, like, there's very smart people working on these interesting problems, and they're just
- 22:02not problems that I'm interested in partnering with people to solve.
- 22:05There've been other categories where I'm just like, oh, this is a thing.
- 22:08It's not well understood.
- 22:09We should invest in it.
- 22:10And now people come to me, oh, we're doing such and such benefit through the employer channel.
- 22:13I'm like, well, like, that was, like, a cool thing seven years ago.
- 22:16It's not done.
- 22:17It's just much harder.
- 22:18I'll ask you this one last question.
- 22:20Every fund claims that they do nonconsensus deals.
- 22:23They all say in market that they're all into nonconsensus area.
- 22:27But then you'd probably see a bit in their portfolio, and you know that they join specific
- 22:30rounds within companies that are very of the hot topic of today.
- 22:34What's your perspective on that?
- 22:37It's funny.
- 22:37There's a handful of funds I know who are like, we just compete for the hot consensus deals.
- 22:41And I've noticed they're honest, and they've been a lot more honest about that with me in
- 22:45the last probably twelve months that, hey.
- 22:47We haven't given up on our ability to compete with and defeat the big multistage funds or to
- 22:52beat other seed funds competing for hot seat deals.
- 22:54We're okay fighting for those deals because we believe we can win them.
- 22:57And then there's other people I've met who are like, well, we we like consensus outsiders.
- 23:01We back people from Berkeley too.
- 23:03And I'm like, okay.
- 23:03So you've it's like I was like, oh, I thought you're gonna say something really
- 23:07revolutionary.
- 23:08And, you know, what I tell our LPs is I'm very focused on finding individual contributors and
- 23:13people who are earlier in their career because I think venture's pretty efficient with repeat
- 23:18founders.
- 23:18Those people know who they want.
- 23:20People who are looking for them find them.
- 23:21I find there's this pool of people who are individual contributors earlier in their
- 23:25career, don't have a ton of relationships, don't have a ton track record, that I just
- 23:28think we're bad at underwriting those people.
- 23:30And I have a point of view about what we're looking for in those people and what makes them
- 23:33successful, and I think that transcends category.
- 23:36I think Hunter said this before.
- 23:37Like, your portfolio really reflects what you do.
- 23:39You have all stuff in your website, but I usually just go to someone's portfolio and say,
- 23:42what did you actually put money in?
- 23:44That tells me a lot about what you actually think good looks like.
- 23:46Well, we are all out of time today.
- 23:48Thank you, Charles, for joining in, and thank you to our listeners for listening to Learning
- 23:52Corner.
- 23:52Please like and subscribe, and we will talk with you all next week.
- 23:55Thank you.
- 23:56Bye.
- 23:56Bye.