Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | Diversify | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/24/26

Transcript

Wednesday BEST BETS | Diversify | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/24/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Man, a hole in your chips, the black coffee on
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: the felt. Man, you look like a mist three teen
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: this man. But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Your name still means something on somebody for show.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Put the glass.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Down, baby, look at me. Now, hold on, hold on
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: nothing nice, now, hold on, hold on me for but
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: it don't don't get the crown, hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Stay with me. Now, what's all everybody? It's towed back
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: with you? Toadstill sports.
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: It is Wednesday, June twenty fourth, two and one on
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: the show yesterday. Kind Of unfortunate because the play that
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: I added during the show was the one loser we
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: got the win with the Seattle Mariners. They had to
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: do it late though they were losing the game two
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: to one, but the bullpen was included in that handicap
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: for a reason. I thought they had the bullpen edge.
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: Seattle got a couple of late runs and they won
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: the game three to two. So Pittsburgh's bullpen wound up
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: failing and being the difference in that game see Outol's
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: bultpen was good, so that's how we got that. The
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: under was pretty easy in Cleveland and the White Sox.
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: I gave it out first five, it was one to
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: one at the end of five. The full game went
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: landed two to one, so the full game went under.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: As well, so that was pretty easy either way.
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: The A's first five did not get there, although luckily
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: it was an underdog price. I liked it though Savally
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: wasn't bad in the game. I think he he only
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: gave up two runs while he was out there, So
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: if you're gonna tell me he was gonna pitch decent
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: like that, yeah, then I would have continued to like
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: that play, probably even more like I didn't expect that
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: it would be the A's offense that wouldn't get anything
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: done in the game, and they were down two to
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: one at the end of five, and then I mean.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: They did lose the first five.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: Savally did give up a number of hits there, so
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: he kind of got lucky that he did in a
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: lot more runs than that, So it was not the
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: right side. But the A's not hitting really surprised me there,
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: and they lose the game three to one I'm whatever
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna move on to today. I don't think I'm
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: gonna do it today, and add more plays on the fly.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna have two baseball plays, a w NBA play
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: that looks actually quite good to me.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: It's got a lot of angles to it.
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: And then I'm gonna give out a World Cup play
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: that is different than what I've been doing because we
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: have motivation coming into play here. There's six World Cup
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: matches today, macdo what's up? Yeah, so some people might
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: call me the undertaker. I do take overs too, but
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: probably more unders than overs. It's just the way that
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: it is. But the public, the public doesn't like unders.
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: They mostly play overs. So if you are contrarian like
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: I am, and you fade the public more often than
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: you don't, then yeah, you wind up on slightly more
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: underdogs and slightly more unders than favorites and overs. Kyle,
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Let's get into.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: This, man. There's a lot of baseball.
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: There's a double head in here too, because of all
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: the rain outs happening, basically all of them in Cubs
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: games Texas and Miami. Is the first game up we
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: have afternoon baseball here, So the afternoon games, you know
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: that that means this is the end of these series
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: and these teams are going to be traveling Texas or
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: some of them might be traveling.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: At least.
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: Texas and Miami have split the first two games of
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: the series here, so whoever wins this wins the series.
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: So usually that's gonna motivate both teams. Miami won yesterday.
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: I believe these three relief pitchers Texas used two. Both
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: bullpens are pretty good here, Miami number four, Texas number eight.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: I arranged that by Whip.
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: So they're both pretty trustworthy bullpens, though Texas has been
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: a little bit worse recently. Neither offense is particularly good.
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: Miami nineteenth, Texas twenty first. In ops, I have too
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: many tabs up right now because I have another tab
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: up so I can check who is this team playing next?
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: Looking at Friday when all the team tams are in
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: full series here. Yeah, so Miami won the game yesterday,
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: so this is a split series right now. Jacob de Grom,
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: pitching for Texas. Not happy with him right now because
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: we lost an under in his last game, but he's
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: been generally good three point five to ninety ra one
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: point zero three whip. I mean, we know he's been
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: a really good pitcher throughout his career. He's still pitching
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: well in an old age. Not as good on the
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: road though, four point eight three Roadie Ray. So he
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: is taking advantage of Texas's very pitcher friendly ballpark. But
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: this might be a decent matchup for him because Miami
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: is also pitcher friendly. They're not a terrific offense to Grom.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: I know, it's kind of a red flag. They gave
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: up six runs against San Diego at home last time out.
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: If you allow runs to San Diego wherever you are,
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: that's not a good sign. But he gave up six
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: runs on six hits. I mean three walks wasn't that great.
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: But I think he got a little bit unlucky. He
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: had nine strikeouts in that outing, so his man was
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: still there. His numbers still look good to me recently,
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: and overall he's got a high strikeout rate, low hit rate,
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: low walk rate.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Like everything looks good here.
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: So I think that was a little bit of an
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: outlier in Miami somehow only has seven at bats against them,
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: Only two of their hitters have ever faced him, and
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: The more hilarious thing about this is the only hit
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: that they have off of him is Sandy al Kandra,
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: the pitcher who pitched yesterday. Do you think he's gonna
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: be in the lineup? They should put him in, man,
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: he's got the only hit he has. He has a
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: double and RBI double against de Gram.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Put him in no.
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: So basically Miami has never seen him before. Ruiz a Storry,
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: Ruiz Estuary. Interesting, he's over three often with three strikeouts,
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: so that's the only actual hitter that's his numbers against
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: de Gram here. So I think de Grom does match
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: up pretty well here against a team that hasn't even
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: seen him before.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Pretty much.
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: I think he should pitch well. Uri Perez is pitching
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: from Miami. He's coming back from the injured list here.
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: He was pitching better than his RA makes it look.
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: Four point six ERA not very good, but one point
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: two six whip. I mean, I know that's not excellent,
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: but it does indicate his ERA probably should be a
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: bit lower than that. He's a talented pitcher, he's still
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: pretty young. Just he walks too many guys. He's been
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: good at home though, three point four to one ERA
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: and you know I talk about when pitchers come back
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: off the injured list. Usually I talk about veteran pitchers,
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: though a lot of times they're ready to go.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: They're pumped up.
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: Like, I think they actually get undervalued in that return
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: spot because people are kind of hesitant to want to
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: play them. I hear differing opinions on this from professionals,
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: but I think the team kind of somewhat rallies around
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: that pitcher, and that pitcher tends to have a better
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: game in my opinion. Like, I don't know if we
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: have actual stats on this, though, but I'm trying to
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: read everybody's mind and behavior here. Perez was pitched well
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: in his last couple of outings before he went down.
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: He had a shortened start against Toronto where he was
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: shutting them out with a lot of strikeouts, and then
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: he went down. I know those two starts are against
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: the Mets in Toronto. Those are not good offenses, but
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: Texas is not exactly an elite offense here, even though
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: they are better on the road.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Than they are at home.
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: The one really good thing for Perez is that he
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: had no walks in those last two outings, so his
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: command was really good in those two starts.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: He's allowed a low amount of hits on the season.
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is too high, though, like I said,
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: his strikeout rate is also high.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: I like him. I think he's good.
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: I think he's better than his ra suggests. He's still young,
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: so I think his career could still kind of take
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: off a little bit. Texas, though they have been able
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: to hit him in twenty one at bats, they have
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: a two to eighty six average in eight twenty four ops,
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: although he has twelve strikeouts and two walks against them,
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: so he has not had walk issues against them, and
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: he has struck out a lot of them.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: If you dig into this.
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: A little bit, really, it's just Nemo three for five
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: with a home run, not a whole lot of damage
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: otherwise here. So I think this game looks like an
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: under to me. That's the way I would lean here.
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: I don't love Perez's numbers here. I'm not sure if
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: I fully trust him with his command issues whatever. I know,
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: you also have the bad road numbers for de Grom here.
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: But the money seems to agree with me on this.
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: The market also, I mean the totals at seven and
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: a half, so the odds makers are telling you this
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: should be a low scoring game. We have fifty six
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: percent of the tickets ninety five percent of the cash
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: on the under. If I was gonna play the game,
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: I think under makes the most sense in that one.
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: The money is also backing Miami, by the way, as
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: a home dog. There Texas minus won twenty something. I
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: think the feel is probably that you're paying a little
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: bit of a price for de Grom because everybody knows
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: the name. He's gonna be a Hall of Famer whatever.
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: Texas may be the better team, but Perez is good
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: enough that he might be able to hold Miami in
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: this game, you know, so maybe getting them at an
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: underdog price. There is some value there. Sixty six percent
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: of the tickets on Texas, ninety two percent of the
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: cash on Miami, and with an underdog, as I always say,
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: there's a little bit more value if you expect it
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: to be a low scoring game. So I think the
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: under makes more sense than anything else in that game, though, Gerald,
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: what's up?
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out all right?
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: Next game up, I'm gonna talk about both games of
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: this doubleheader here, Cubs and the Mets.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: This series I think is actually continuing tomorrow to so
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: I think this is a four game series where they
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: had the first game postponed on Monday.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: I guess is what that was.
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: Yesterday they played and the Cubs won nine to six,
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: but now they're playing a double header to make sure
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: they get that game played, and they're gonna play tomorrow too.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: This is just kind of crazy here.
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: And the Cubs have not decided on a starting pitcher
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: in either game here, which makes this really difficult to
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: figure out. And we know that with doubleheaders there are
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: some rules where like Major League Baseball allows you to
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: call guys up for like one day in the event
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: of a double header. So the Cubs might be calling
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: somebody up from Triple A because they just have way
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: too many injuries here, man Boyd Horton, like They're starting
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: rotation is decimated. I think tie On is injured now too,
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: So we have no idea who's pitching for the Cubs
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: in Game one. Nolan McClain is going for the Mets. Here,
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: we can look at the bullpen usage from yesterday. The
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: Cubs use four guys out of the bullpen.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: The Mets. No, not the Yankees, the Mets. The Mets
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: also use four.
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: We do have two reasonably good bullpens here, Mets number
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: two and pretty good ERA wise two. Cubs are number
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: eleven right now. They haven't been as good recently, but
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: there's still a decent bullpen Offensively. The Cubs do have
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: a big advantage though, number six in offense Mets number
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: twenty nine. But the bullpens are probably gonna get used
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: in game ones. That's another thing. When you look at
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: Game two, you have to kind of consider, well, these
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: bullpens are probably gonna get used. So if you're trying
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: to handicap this in the morning, like generally kind of
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: tend to lean towards overs in game twos of doubleheaders,
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: just because I expect the bullpens to be used up
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: by then. Maybe that won't be the case here, but
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: it does look like the Cubs are gonna be the
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: team that has more bullpen usage in this first game
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: because we don't even know what they're doing. And Nolan
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: McClain is pitching for the Mets, and he's young, but
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: I think he's their best starter. He's got a three
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: point six seven e RA, one point zero nine whip
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: four point four to six home ERA though so he
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: has not been as good at home, but his overall
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: numbers still look pretty good. Like I think that's kind
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: of a misleadingly high era. Uh pitched really well in
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati's last time out, wasn't really that good in his
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: last home start. It wasn't against Atlanta. They're pretty good offensively,
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: especially on the road. McClain overall, though, he's got a
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: really low hit rate, like he's been pretty much hit
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: a ball. His walk rate has gotten too high though,
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: so that's kind of the main concern with him at
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: this point, and his strikeout rate is good. His walk
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: number went back down in his most recent start, though,
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: so he seems like his command is coming back a bit. Ever,
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: he had a stretch where he did walk too many
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: guys for a few starts in a row. I think
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: McClain has the upper hand here, though he does have
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: some experience against the Cubs, and the numbers are kind
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: of all over the place. Eighteen at bats not a
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: huge sample. Two twenty two average allowed as low one
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: thousand and seventy eight ops is concerning, but it's basically
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: all damage from Suzuki.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: He was two for three with two home runs, and yes,
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Swanson does have a home run off him too, but.
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: It looks a little bit fluky to me. We have
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: nine strikeouts in here too, two walks. I'm not gonna
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: weigh those home runs.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Too heavily here.
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: I think McClain has the advantage against whoever is pitching
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: for the Cubs. I have no idea what the Cubs
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: are doing it. Edward Cabrera got hurt yesterday too. He
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: started yesterday, so this Cub's rotation is completely decimated. I
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: don't think they've announced a starter yet here, so no
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: idea what's going on with them. This is the extra
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: game now, because this is considered to be the makeup game.
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: I think the Mets are actually an underdog in this game.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: It looks like so, I.
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: Mean, if you want to take a blind shot at
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: it and play the Mets, you know, have at it.
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: I guess I wouldn't really disagree getting McClain against a
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: very unpredictable pitching matchup here. You know, I think you
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: could kind of predict the McClain should do well here
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: in the Mets bullpen is alright, So yeah, I mean
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: probably would lean to the Mets in that one and
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: then game two. We also have no idea who's pitching
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: for the Cobs, So again we have no idea what
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: they're doing. The Mets are gonna go with Sean Mania.
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: I would be more leery of this because we know
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: that they've used an opener in front of Manaia a
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: decent amount this season, so they might do that again here.
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: So you're probably gonna get Mania for four or five
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: innings here or whatever, but they may put an opener
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: in front of him. So just be aware of that
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: that if you pick starting pitcher, must start, you shouldn't
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: really do that with the Mets in this game too
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: here because you can handicap this knowing that Manaia is
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: gonna pitch, but he may not actually start. He hasn't
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: been that good four point six four ERA, one point
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: three four whip, four point nine to four ERA at home,
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: not particularly good either. He has started making starts, though,
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: and he's actually been better recently, like his starts this
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: month have all been pretty good. He's got a pretty
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: low hit rate here, eighteen to three strikeout walk ratio
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: this month and twenty to third innings With those fifteen
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: hits a lot hasn't allowed more than two earned runs
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: in any of these outings. He's got at least five
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: innings and three out of the four, so he is
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: actually pitching better right now. Maybe he's excited to be
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: back in the starting rotation. Whatever it is.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: His overall numbers here really don't look that bad.
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is pretty good, hit rate a little
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: bit too high, walk rate not too bad. So I
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: think Manaia is better than his numbers suggests, and he's
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: had like a decent career at least. Usually his walk
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: numbers are a problem, but that hasn't really been a
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: problem recently, and he actually does have decent numbers against
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: the Cubs in one hundred and nineteen at bats to
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: ten batting average six eighty one ops twenty three to
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: ten strikeout walk ratio is not good.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Like I said, he does have walk issues throughout.
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: His career, but right now he looks like he's kind
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: of in form I mean, I don't know what the
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: Cubs are doing in this one, but the Mets might
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: actually have the upper hand in this game too. There's
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: no line on this game yet either, so you can't
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: even bet it right now. It looks like which kind
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: of surprises me. Usually the books will throw a number
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: out there on that. The Cubs are probably going to
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: be favored. I mean, if the Cubs are favored against
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: Nolan McLain, the Cubs are definitely going to be favored
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: against Sean Mania. But the Mets might be the way
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: to look in both of those games. To be honest,
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: it looks like they're pitching lines up decently here, although
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: I would trust McLain more than and I of those
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: so I think the Mets are a stronger play getting
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: them at that underdog price in Game one, you know,
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: So that's the way I would look there.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: I think both teams will show up.
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: Because the series has only had one game finished so far.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: Our next game up is gonna be a play for
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: me Cleveland and Chicago. I've had to play in every
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: one of the games in the series so far. We
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: lost with Cleveland in Game one, hit with the first
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: five under yesterday. This game we're gonna I'm gonna go
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: back to Cleveland here. This is gonna be my play.
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: Cleveland on the money line minus one twelve. You can
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: find the price somewhere in that range. I know I
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: don't like Cleveland's offense, I know, but I focus more
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: on pitching than offense, just because I think pitching has
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: more of an effect on what the hitting does. Cleveland
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: is an okay bullpen. They're number fourteen, White Sox are
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: number twenty, so I think Cleveland does still have the
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: better bullpend here, so I'm leaving them in this equation here. Plus,
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: I think they're gonna be mo evated to get this
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: thing done because they're trying to avoid a sweet peer.
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: The White Sox have won both games. Cleveland blew it
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: for us in the ninth inning of the first game.
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: Cleveland they've been competitive in the series, though they've lost
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: both games by one run, so I know they didn't
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: get it done in what I thought was a bad spot.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: For the White Sox returning home.
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: Cleveland had to get some late runs to take the lead,
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: but then once they were winning in the ninth inning,
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: they should have finished it off.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: They didn't. They blew it in the ninth inning.
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: But Cleveland should be heavily motivated here to avoid the
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: sweet peer. The White Sox are probably feeling pretty good
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: that now they've flipped the standings back by beating Cleveland twice.
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: The White Sox are now back at first place. Cleveland
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: probably wants to say something about that here.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: It's not gonna be.
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: A look ahead for the White Sox because I believe
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: they're playing Kansas City next, so they're not going to
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: look ahead to that really, But I still think the
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: motivation is gonna be on the Cleveland side to try
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: to avoid the sweet Peer and the White Sox might
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: take them a little more lightly. As far as the bullpen's,
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: Cleveland only use one guy for six pitches, so Cleveland's
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: bullpen is fully available here today, so that should be
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: an advantage to them as well, whereas the White Sox
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: only use one guy as well. My man Sean Newcomb,
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: but I still think Cleveland has the bullpen advantage here.
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: Hitting wise, yeah, the White Sox obviously have the better hitting.
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: The White Sox are where are they at now? They've
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: fallen off a little bit. I thought, I don't even
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: I'm looking at pitching. I'm like, I don't even see
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: them here. The White Sox are thirteenth in offense right now,
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: tied with the Brewers, so still good. But maybe they
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: were a little bit overrated with the way they were
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: hitting earlier in the season. Yes, I know Cleveland has
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: a very weak offense number twenty eight. They got some
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: pretty significant injuries here, but I think we can get
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: this done. Man, We're gonna back Tanner by be here.
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: He's the better pitcher out of the two pitchers. He's
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: got a four point zero three ERA one point one
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: to eight whip.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: Those are not bad numbers.
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: His record makes him look a lot worse than he
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: because I know he doesn't get runs support, and I
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: knew we do have to worry about that. But I
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: think Cleveland can get enough runs here off of the
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: pitching they're gonna face here. I know Biby is not
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: as good on the row, and I know four point
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: six to two Roadie, I ray.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: He's been pitching.
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: Reasonably well though over his last few starts, like four
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: starts in a row that have been reasonably good, three
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: or few earned runs allowed.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: In all four of them. Yeah, he's just been all
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: right overall.
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: But he's also allowed only nine hits this month and
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: twenty to third inning, so he's been basically unhittable this month,
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: which that's good, although he's walked a few too many guys,
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: but his strike gut rates been decent. He's been pitching
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: better recently. His strike gut rate's not that good on
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: the season. Usually you do expect him to be a
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: little bit better in that department. But he's got a
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: low hit rate, his walk rate is not too bad.
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: He's allowed too many home runs, so that is a
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: little bit of an issue here, But I'm gonna suck
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: it up here because I think he can pitch well
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: in this game. He has good numbers against the White
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: Sox and thirty eight at bats. They have six hitters
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: who have based him, and they have not done well
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: against him. Only one extra base hit, which is a
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: double from greed Chuck. Ten strikeouts, four walks. Yeah, I mean,
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: I know that's too many walks still, but he's held
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: into a one fifty eight average of four to twenty
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: two ohps. So these White Sox hitters, they do not
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: have good offensive numbers against Biby. So I think Biby
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: should pitch pretty well here. And we're gonna fade Eric
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: Fetti here, which not the first time I've done that
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: on the show. To put it mildly, Fetti, he's not
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: very good. A four point four to sixty ra one
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: point three to nine whip. He is better at home.
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: I'll give you that three point twenty nine homey Ray
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: still not totally buying it though, I mean, his numbers
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: look pretty mediocre really at home. He's failed to make
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: it five innings in his last two starts. I know
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: one was against the Dodgers and they took him out early.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the deal was there, but he wasn't.
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: Very good last time out against Detroit either, didn't really
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: last that long, threw too many pitches. Overall numbers here
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: really strikeout rate, hit rate is slightly high, walk rate
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: is too high as well.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: Home run rate is also.
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: Basically it's actually worse than by these So he wanted
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: to talk about home runs.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think fety loses in that.
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: Department too, so even though he didn't allow any of
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: those last two short outings that he had, but he
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: also doesn't do well against Cleveland. And this is Cleveland's
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: offense without Jose Ramirez, without those guys that are injured.
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: They still have seventy at bats against him, and they
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: have a three hundred average nine h two ops against him,
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: eight to seven strike out walk ratio. Hoskins, Kwan, and
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: Schneeman all have really good numbers against him. So I'm
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: gonna roll with it. Cleveland, I think should be able
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: to put up some runs here. I think they should
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: be able to win this game. That's what I'm gonna
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: go with. They're favored for a reason, Like you gotta
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: think the public is gonna be looking at these lines.
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: And I know Cleveland's lost the first two games of
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: the series here and they've been favored I think both times.
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: But you gotta think that the public is going to
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: play the White Sox here, although we have sixty one
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: percent of the tickets on Cleveland here, but the money
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: is agreeing with me on Cleveland, with ninety three percent
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: of the cash on them at around this Pickham price
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: basically here. But again, you gotta think the public's reaction
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: to this is the White Sox have won both games
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: in the series. The public also loves the better offense,
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: which is the White Sox. They gotta be thinking, how
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: how is Cleveland a road favorite here?
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: Right? But of course there's a reason for it. And
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: even just if you know anything about baseball, I mean,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: on the surface, you know, Cleveland has the better starting
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: pitcher here.
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: So that's where we're gonna go with. Cleveland is my
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: first play here. Yeah, Fetti wop. Yeah, Uh, Trey, what's up, Garrett?
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: What's up? Yes? Thank you?
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: Seattle A little bit lucky maybe on that one, but
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: the bullpens were part of that handicap. You live bet
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: Atlanta and then yeah, they lost an extra innings. I
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: don't know what that was. Carrasco, Is that Carlos Carrasco?
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: Is he's still in Major League Baseball? I remember when
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: that guy was a starter. Is that who you're talking about.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Speaking of Cleveland, because I think he was on Cleveland
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: for quite a while. I don't know if that's who
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: you mean or not. I have no idea.
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: I'm surprised he's even still in the league. Actually, if
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: that's who you're talking about, he's always been like a
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: junk pitcher. Who if he's still around at all, I
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: would think he's just a long relief guy.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: All right. Red Sox in Colorado.
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: These teams have split the series so far. This is
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: the end of the series. The Red Sox won yesterday.
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: Sonny Gray was really good in the game yesterday, double
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: digit strikeouts, really excellent start from him. The Red Sox
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: won the game. Red Sox should have won the first
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: game because they were winning the entire game until the
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: bottom of the ninth when Chapman didn't get it done
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: and Duran made a stupid fielding blunder out there still
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: a huge Durand fan, though I'm blaming the Red Sox
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: fan base for that. Red Sox should win. I mean,
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: they're favored here, but I do have concerns here. One
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: big concern is they're playing the Yankees next. The Yankees
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: are coming back to and I'm gonna complain about that
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: over the weekend probably, but the Red Sox maybe looking
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: ahead to that. My complaint is that the rivalry just
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: doesn't exist anymore on the Red Sox side.
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: Like we used to be.
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: You know, like if you were a New York fan
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: coming to Boston, it used to be like, you're gonna
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: enter a hostile environment here, man, you're gonna get heckled,
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: you're gonna get shouted, shouted down out of the city.
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: Whatever.
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: But now it's completely different. It's like, no, we have
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: to be polite. And the Red Sox store is selling
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: Yankees merchandise. I'm like, are you fucking kidding me, dude.
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: It's such bullshit, dude, Like I don't know what happened,
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: Like when I was in high school and whatever it was. No,
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: we're gonna buy a Yankee suck T shirt. We're gonna
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: buy a Pisadas a Little.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: Bitch T shirt.
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: We're gonna give the Yankees fans give the Yankees total hell.
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: I don't know, dude, those days are completely gone. We
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: need to bring that shit back. Everybody loves a rivalry,
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: everybody loves intensity. That might help the Red Sox play
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: better because they're kind of the ununderdog, you know, just
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: forever against the Yankees. Even though the Red Sox have
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: won more World Series than the Yankees have in the
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: last couple decades. I'll boast about it. But the Red
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: Sox suck ass right now this game. I mean, the
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: Red Sox do have some advantages. Of course, they do
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: have a better bullpen. They rank number three bullpen, and
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: it did not help them in Game one, which was bullshit.
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: The Rockies do not have a good bullpen, Number twenty seven,
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: one of the worst bullpenny arrays, I believe, second worst.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: Not good.
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: Red Sox offense though, is not good number twenty six,
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: and they haven't really broken out in this series either.
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: Both games in this series have gone way under the
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: total cors Field. You're getting these enormous cors Field totals,
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: and I'm like, dude, like, I don't know, man, these
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: games kind of have read as under games to me,
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: and today's actually does too. I think even though it's
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: a day game, so that might help overs a little bit.
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: More.
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: Rockies have had the better offense the number eight, although
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: I don't think they're that good. As one of you
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: guys pointed out yesterday, I think it might have been Trey.
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: They do have a few just major outlier offensive games.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: They actually haven't been that good at home, uh this
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: year compared to what they usually do at home. Ronyr
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: Suarez is pitching for the Red Sox. He's had a
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: good season two point nine to three ERA, one point
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: one two whip. Suarezn't Gray, dude, like I liked those
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: offseason moves. They've both been good this seasons. Just the
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: Red Sox offense has been so pathetic that their pitching
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: hasn't been good. Like their pitching has been really good.
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: Their hitting has been so bad they're still losing every game.
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: Suarez has been good on the road two point two
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: to one road ERA. Of course, you have to worry
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: about him pitching a course field. He did pitch here
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: most recently early last season, and he shut Colorado out
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: for six and two thirds innings in that game, so
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: he pitched well in course field there, although he walked
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: three guys but still six strikeouts six hits in a
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: six to two third inning shutout. So he has the
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: ability to pitch well in course field. He's been pretty
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: good recently. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs and
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: all three starts this month eighteen to five strike got
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: walk ratio over that span. Decent strike got rate on
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: the season, low hit rate, walk rate maybe slightly high,
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: but overall good stuff here. Two point nine three ERA,
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: one point one two whip. I forget if I even
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: said what those numbers were or not. Numbers against Colorado
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: also were good and thirty four at bats two oh
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: six average allowed, five point thirty five ops, eleven to
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: three strike out walk ratio. So Suarez does look like
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: he matches up pretty well here. He's not an extreme
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: fly ball pitcher either, Actually he's more so than I thought.
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: He does allow some fly balls here, but he's only
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: allowed four home runs this season, and two of them
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: are in his opener, so He's literally only allowed two
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: home runs from April onwards, so he has not really
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: had issues with home runs, so he should be able
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: to pitch well here, has good matchup numbers, looked good
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: last time he was in Colorado.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: Kyle Friedland is pitching for the for the Rockies. Not good.
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: Uh seven point three six ERA, one point five eight whip.
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: Somehow he's been better at home. Makes no sense to me,
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: but six point three to two homey ra pitching better
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: in course field, even though he is an extreme fly
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: ball pitcher more than Suarez is, and he's allowed way
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: more home runs than.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: Suarez has this season. His hit rate is way higher. Horrible,
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: horrible hit rate, walk rate is okay, strike out rate
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: is okay. But this guy just gets tagged, dude. He
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: allows a lot of hits.
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: Somehow, he pitched well at home last time out against Pittsburgh.
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: That's a good sign that he is pitching well now,
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: but that was one start, So, like, what do you
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: do with that information? I have no idea because generally
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: he has not been good, although it's impressive that he
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: did that. He has good numbers against the Red Sox though,
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: which you know that I don't like seeing that this
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: Red Sox offense, what are you doing?
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: Man?
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: Wilson Contrera's newcomer to the Red Sox is over eleven
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: off of this guy.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: I don't even know how that's possible.
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox have twenty six at bats against him,
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: one extra base hit which is a home run from Monasterio,
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: nine strikeouts, four walks, one fifteen average four to eighty
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: nine ops not I mean, yeah, not good Red Sox
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: offensive numbers here. So this does look like another under
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: type of game here as I I think I just
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: went off the page that I wanted to be on.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: What the hell, dude, what did I just do? What
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: the fuck? I don't know what I just did?
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: All right, I think I'm back whatever. I think a
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: first five under might be the way to look at
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: this game. Both games have gone under the total. The
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: oddsmakers are like, yeah, whatever, we're putting up an eleven
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: on this game. I'm like, I don't know, man, I'm
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: I don't think I see it getting there. The money
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: is backing the over though eighty four percent of tickets
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: seventy nine percent of the cash on the under.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: I don't see it. I don't get it. I think
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: a first five under makes the most sense.
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: I would avoid the Rockies bullpen, but the Red Sox
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: offense doesn't really.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: Seem like that much of a threat. Man.
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox are favored pretty heavily here at minus
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: one's sixty something minus one seventy eighty six percent of
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on the Red Sox,
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: they should win. But I would not put money on
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox here. I obviously have my concerns here.
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: Even though they do have a bullpen advantage. You gotta
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: think they do generally have the better starting pitcher here too.
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: They are the better team, as the odds makers are
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: telling you. But you know, the Rockies always are just
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: I think they're just always kind of undervalued in the
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: market too, though. But yeah, I think a first five
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: under makes the most sense.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox official team store sells Yankees merchandise now,
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: which is the most bullshit thing that I've ever seen.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: Yes, you mean Carosco.
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, while weiss pulling a Grady little I guess I
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: don't know freel in hard contact. Yes, yeah, eleven runs
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: It's course field in a day game, so like they,
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: I thought it would be more like around a ten
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: really with this pitching matchup, So eleven does seem high
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: to me, but I mean it's course field, so you're
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: rarely gonna get a number that's below ten in course field.
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: Even though I think Game one of this series was
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: it nine and a half though, which was Bennett against Feltner.
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: I think who is kind of the Rockies best pitcher.
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: I guess best so, but I don't know. I was
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: kind of surprised that total was that low really, but
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: it still felt like an under. That game did go
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: way way under the totals. So whatever, Baltimore and Anaheim,
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: these seems to split this series so far. Naheim won yesterday.
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: This is the end of this series. I believe both
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: teams probably show up motivated at least to try to
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: get this thing done. Baltimore only is one relief pitcher yesterday.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: Anaheim u's four.
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: Anaheim is definitely at a bullpen disadvantage here. Anaheim not
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: good twenty sixth in bullpen. Orioles are sixteenth, though their
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: bullpen era is still not good. But the Orioles have
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: the better bullpen still and the more rested bullpen here,
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: so they have a bullpen edge. The offenses are close
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: Orioles fifteen, Angels sixteen. This pitching matchup, though, I don't
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: know if it really looks good for either team here.
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: Trey Gibson for Baltimore still doesn't even have a mug
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: shot here on ESPN yet.
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: He has not been good.
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: He's young, so maybe he's gonna become something, but not
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: so far. Our five point eight one ERA one point
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: seven to one whip. This is really bad stuff. I
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: think he's pitched or he pitched in the minors for
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: a while. Obviously he wasn't good in the minors either.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: I don't think so.
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: I don't know what the deal is with him. He's
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: a little bit better on the road. Five point five
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: to nine. Roady Ray is still bad. His walk number
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: has been ridiculous, and I don't mean in a good
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: way on nine walks over his last nine and the
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: third innings here against San Diego really bad and against
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers. Maybe give him a pass for that, but
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: his walk numbers have been atrocious, four walks or more
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: in three of his last four outings. This is some
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: really bad stuff here. His strikeout rate is actually pretty
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: low on the season. Two hit rate is highs. Walk
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: rate is incredibly high. There's not a lot to like here. Man,
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: although he is unfamiliar to the Angels, so he does
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: have that advantage, but that hasn't helped him at all.
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: So I don't expect him to pitch well here. Just
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: too much negative all around those numbers. Jose Soriano pitching
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: for the Angels. He's been good this year three point
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: zero three e ray, one point two to seven whip
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: is starting to get a little high, though Indica, his
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: era should be probably higher than it is. He pitched
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: really well early in the season, but he's definitely regressed
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: quite a bit, and he's known as not being as
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: good at home. He was actually pretty bad at home
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: last year with the Angels. This year he's been not
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: as bad three point twenty five home e r RAM,
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: but still he is better on the road than he
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: is at home.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: So he's in the worst of his home road splits here.
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: He's been walking too many guys this month twenty to
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: fifteen strikeout walk ratio in twenty and two thirds innings.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: That is not good. Way too many walks here. Yeah,
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: so he is not pitching well.
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: Maybe you give him a pass because he pitched in
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: the A's stadium. Most recently. I gave a winner out
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: on the show with the over in that game. But
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: still I don't trust Soriano. His walk number is really high.
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: He's been unhittable, so that's good. I mean, his hit
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: rate is really low. His strikeout rate is good too.
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: These walks are just crazy, though, like he's just walking everybody.
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: It's a huge problem, and Baltimore has had okay offensive
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: numbers against him. Only six of their hitters have faced
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: them eighteen at bats to seventy eight average, eight to
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: sixteen ops, four to one strike got walk ratio. So
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: the Baltimore offense does have a slight edge against Soriano here.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: I think this game looks like an over.
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: That's probably what I would do here. We have sixty
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: eight percent of the tickets and sixty five percent of
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: the cash on the under. No idea, what's going on
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: with that. There's no way the public is playing an
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: under in this game, No way. But the total is
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: fairly high nine and a half. It's high for a reason.
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: Both bullpens are pretty fatable here too. I think both
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: starters might struggle a little bit here, So I think
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: the over is the approach here, Anaheim is getting the
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: money fifty seven percent of ticket seventy eight percent of
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: the cash on Anaheim at around minus one twenty something. Here,
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: I would say Anaheim first five innings does make some sense.
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: I still think Soriano has the advantage over Gibson at
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: the very least because Gibbson has just been absolutely awful,
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: So Soriano is at least the proven picture here. I
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: would not factor in the Anaheim bullpend though into that,
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: So Anaheim first five makes some sense for a side there,
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: But I like the over in that game. Yes, under
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: ten pitching due in course field Soriano, I don't know.
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: I mean, I just countered that by telling you how
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: bad is walk numbers are, and I think his era
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: should be higher than it is, Like his whip kind
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: of indicates his era is more of like a high
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: threes e ra Kansas City, which is still not bad.
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: He's not a bad pitcher, but I don't think he's
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: great either. Kansas City at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay on
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: the version of potentially getting swept here, we're in the
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: evening though, so I think that means this series is
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: actually continuing tomorrow.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: It is. This is a four game series, but Tampa
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: Bay has lost the first two games of the series
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: to the Royals. The Royals, who cannot hit it all
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: on the road this year, put up twelve runs in
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: yesterday's game. I don't know what to tell you about that.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know what that was.
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: I don't remember who was pitching for Tampa Bay in
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: that game. I don't know what happened there.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: Was it Shane?
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: I think it was Shane McClanahan, right, That was Yeah,
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: that was pretty disgusting if that's what it was.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: Maybe I'm wrong about who pitched in that game. I
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: can't remember anything anymore anyway. Both bullpens here are bad.
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay only us one guy out of the bullpen yesterday,
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: so they did kind of save their bullpen. Kansas City
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: used four guys out of the bullpen, so Tampa Bay
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: does have a little bit of a bullpen edge here,
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: but their bullpen isn't good. They're number eighteen, but their
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: era is worse than that, so I don't like that bullpen.
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: Kansas City is twenty nine out of thirty though, really bad,
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: so I don't trust either bullpen here. Tampa's probably slightly
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: better and a little bit more rested. Tampa's number eighteen
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: in offense, Kansas City seventeams. We've had mediocre offenses here.
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: Kansas City not good, like I said, They're not good
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: on the road though. I think Tampa Bay is the
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: better offense here. But Kansas City might have another pitching
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: advantage here because they have Noah Cameron pitching, and he's
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: I don't want to say he's established, but he's put
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: together like more than a season of like good pitching.
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: Now at this point, he's been I think better than
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: his RA makes him look right now. Four point two ERA,
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: one point two seven whip. That whip is a little
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: bit high, but Cameron's been pretty good overall, three point
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: seven to one road ERA, which is pretty good. He's
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: been pitching better mostly as of Lady's a lot more
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: than three AR runs only once going all the way
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: back through the beginning of May. His hit rate is
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: still a little bit too high, his walk rate is
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: pretty low, strike out rate is okay. He's not a
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: huge strike up pitcher, but I think he can deliver
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: again here. Tampa Bay is over thirteen against him, so
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay not a ton of experience against him. It
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: has an success Six hitters have faced him, two strikeouts,
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: two walks, so not a lot of strikeouts there, but
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: they have not hit him at all literally, so zero
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: batting average, one thirty three ops against him. So Cameron
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: does appear to have a good match up here. Tampa
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: Bay is going with Griffin Jacks, who I don't really
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: trust him. I don't think he's that good. He's a
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: converted reliever. But he's actually been pitching reasonably well in
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: this role here, where he's like the back end of
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: the rotation starter at this point three point six to
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: seventy RRA, one point three to one whip not good
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: at home though four point five to seventy RRA, and
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: that whip is still a bit high indicates that his
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: RA should be higher than it is. He's been good
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: in his last three starts though. He's only allowed two
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: runs in his last fifteen innings at work, two earn runs,
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: one unearned. There has no walks over his last two
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: starts too, so he's actually pitching pretty well right now,
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: and his command looks pretty good right now too.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Fairly low hit.
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: Rate here, walk rate horrible, really a little bit high,
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: and strike out rate is decent as well, so I
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: don't know. I mean, Jackson has gotten the job done
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: at least, and Kansas City has not done well against him.
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: In forty one at bats one seventy one average, four
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: to seventy two ohps eight six strike out walk ratio
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: is not good, but five of the walks are whit,
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: so he's only gonna face wits so many times here. Uh,
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: you're probably gonna only get about four or five innings
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: out of Jacks, though. I mean he's been going about
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: five every outing, so that's that might be what you
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: get out of him. But this does look like kind
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: of a first five inning under here.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: The totals low in the full game at seven and
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: a half, So the oddsmakers are telling you they think
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: this is gonna be a pitching dual.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: Type of game. I don't trust the bullpens at all.
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: Though seventy four percent of ticket seventy eight percent of
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: the cash on the over, I would play first five
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: under in that game if I was gonna do anything
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: with it. I don't know how close I was to
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: considering that a play, but I don't know. Maybe it's
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: worth considering out, I still don't really fully trust either
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: pitcher though. Really I like Cameron better than Jacks, though,
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: But the money is backing the Rays at minus one
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: forty something here seventy two percent of tickets ninety four
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on Tampa. It makes sense in
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: a way because they're generally the better team here and
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: they're trying to not get swept here after losing the
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: first two games of the series, even though yes, they
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: do play again tomorrow. But I think in the pitching matchup,
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: I think I do prefer Kansas City slightly getting.
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: Them at an underdog price like that.
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: Probably less of an underdog in the first five, though,
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: because the oddsmakers know that the biggest edge Kansas City
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: has in this game is Noah Cameron. So you're probably
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: getting a smaller underdog price there, but probably still an
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: underdog in the first five. So maybe that is something
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: to consider there. I would slightly lean that way Kansas
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: City first five, but I think first five under makes
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: more sense. Mcclanahan's had a really good career. I don't
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: know what you're talking about. Like, his numbers throughout his
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: entire career have been really good. Actually, all right, Yankees
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: at Detroit on Prime Video.
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: Amazon Prime.
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: Detroit won the first game of the series and then
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: lost yesterday in a one run game, losing a four
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: game win streak. There could possibly hang them over here.
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: Yankees play the Red Sox next. As I said, I
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: don't know if the Yankees are gonna be looking ahead
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: to that or not. Both teams I think are No
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: that starts tomorrow. Actually, so the Yankees and Red Sox
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: start on Thursday.
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: It's a weekend series. It must be a four game series.
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man, But anyway, yeah, possible look ahead
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: for the Yankees. Little maybe not, because the Red Sox
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: are completely in the cellar here.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: Yankees might still try to win this series.
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: Yankees used three relief pitchers yesterday. Detroit also used three.
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: Yankees have a slight bullpen edge here. They are number
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: Where are they at? Number seven in bullpen?
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: Now?
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: Their BULLPENNI r ra is pretty good actually, so they're
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: a pretty good bullpen. Detroit's era is not too bad
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: in the bullpen their rank seventeenth. Yankees slight advantage there,
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: but both bullpen's are all right. Yankees number two in offense,
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: they have a bigger edge there Detroit number twenty. So
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: Yankees obviously have the better offense, but Detroit obviously has
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: a starting pitching edge here, and that's why Detroit is
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: favored as heavily as they are here. Like, you're basically
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: you're never gonna get the Yankees as an underdog like this.
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: Does that mean you should play the Yankees?
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: Probably not, but there might be some value just because
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: you're never gonna get the Yankees in an underdog price
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: like this.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: However, I would counter that by saying that the public
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: might think that too.
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: The public might be like, how are we getting the
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: Yankees at this big of an underdog price? But the
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: ausmakers are obviously telling you they think Detroit is expected
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: to win this game. But then again, the public is
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: gonna probably know that. It's because Schooball is pitching for
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: Detroit here. That's the entire reason why they're favored, and
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: because the Yankees do not have one of their better
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: starters going.
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: Ryan Weathers is pitching.
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: He's not horrible though, four point one to three ERA
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: one point one to three whip is not bad at all.
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: He's not as good on the road though, five point
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: three to three road ra so that's not great. Did
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: pitch really well in his last start at home against
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: the White Sox, but his couple of starts before that
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: were not as good. He had three bad starts in
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: a row before that, So the question is is he
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: coming back into form here or not. His prior start
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: was against the Blue Jays and then the Red Sox
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: got to him too, and those are not good offenses.
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: So I don't know, man, but but he pitched against
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: a better offense and dominated them last time out.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: So Weathers is a little bit of a roller coaster.
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: He does have a high strikeout rate on the season
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: and a low hit rate and a pretty low walk
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: rate too, so his numbers across the board are pretty good,
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: although he's been a little bit home run conducive and
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: that's really kind of been the main issue. Actually, that's
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: kind of the reason why he's allowing so many runs
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: as the home runs, because the rest of his numbers
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: actually look pretty good. So I actually think he's better
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: than people think. Detroit has not had success against him.
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: They only have one hit against him in fourteen at bats,
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: which is a single from McKinstry. They have six hitters
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: who have faced him five strikeouts, no walks, seventy one average,
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: one forty three oh ps. Weathers could pitch well here man,
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: He's got good matchup numbers. Schoogle is pitching for Detroit obviously.
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: Like I said, we know that he's good. Three point
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: two ERA is high for his RA, one point two
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: whip is still quite good though he's been a little
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: bit worse at home this year three point nine to
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: three home e RA. But we know he missed a
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: decent amount of time with injury. He was out for
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: the entire month of May and then the first half
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: of June.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: He just came back.
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: Seems to be coming back into for him a little bit.
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: He was pretty good in his last outing against the
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: White Sox. Still kind of inefficient with his pitches though,
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: but his strikeout stuff was definitely there. So he looks
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: like he's on his way back. He's got good numbers
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: on the season for the most part. His hit rate
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: is a little bit higher than he actually expect out
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: of him, although it's not high. High ish strikeout rate
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: in a very low walk rate. Against the Yankees, Schoobol
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: has been good in his career sixty at bats, seventeen strikeouts,
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: three walks one sixty seven average for seventy three ops.
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: So to me, this looks like a pitching duel as well. Here.
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: I think an under makes the most sense in this game,
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: And you know.
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: I don't know about the Yankees. Maybe as an underdog here.
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: Schooble is still the better pitcher though, and schoolball is
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: getting the money. Fifty two percent of the tickets around
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: the Yankees, sixty nine percent of the cash on Detroit
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: Detroit at around minus one forty something here. If I
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: was gonna play Detroit, I would isolate the first five,
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: though I would not want to rely on their bullpen
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: because I think they're.
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: At a disadvantage there.
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: So I think first five laying a half run with
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: Detroit might make some sense here, but that would scare
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: me a little bit. The Yankees could beat that potentially.
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: I think the under is probably the better look here,
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: but you're looking at a seven. Probably it's seven and
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: a half heavily juiced to the under across the board here.
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: If you can find a seven and a half, actually
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: even up to minus one twenty five on the under,
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: seven and a half maybe worth it here, uh, fifty
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: two percent of tickets on the over fifty percent of
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: the cash on the over, so the money slightly indicating
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: towards an under. But yeah, this looks like an under
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: game to me. So that's what I think I would do,
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: probably full game. I mean, both bullpens are alright at
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: least or Yankees, I think is actually a good bullpen,
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: So I think under makes the most sense there. I mean,
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: I kind of considered putting that on my card. I
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: just I don't know, man, I'm trying to use intuition
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: here to figure out what I actually want to put
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: on my card. Next game up looked like it was
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: gonna be an under for me Seattle and Pittsburgh, and
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: then I started digging into these numbers and I'm like,
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: maybe not. Also, Pittsburgh does hit really well at home.
• 48:54
  Speaker 3: We did beat them yesterday, though we got the whim
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: with Seattle yesterday. It was a bad spot for Pittsburgh.
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: Needed the bullpens to get us the win there, which
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: they did for Seattle three to two win. Pirates could
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: be in a bounced back spidier because you know, I
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: talk about when a team returns home from the road,
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: it's a negative spot, but then in the next game,
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: a lot of times they bounce back, so it could
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: be a bounced back spot for Pittsburgh here. Pittsburgh used
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: three relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen is still at a disadvantage.
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: Seattle used three as well and use some of their
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: better relievers because it was a close game, but Pittsburgh
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: used some of their better relievers too. I think is
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: the game shifted late in the game. Seattle is the
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: number fifteen bullpen based on WHIP. Their era is way
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: better than that. I think they're like a top ten bullpen,
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: even though I do think whip is a better indicator.
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: But I like Seattle's bullpen. I don't like Pittsburgh's bullpen.
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: They're number twenty two. Seattle's got the better bullpen. Pittsburgh
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: has the better offense at number five. Seattle's offense has
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: been struggling there at twenty fourth. They do have some injuries.
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: They've had some guys come back, some guys go down,
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: so this is not a full Seattle line up here.
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: Brian wu is pitching for Seattle, and I do like him,
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: but this might not be an ideal matchup for him.
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: He's got a three point nine to four ERRA, which
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: I think is misleadingly high actually, because his whip is one,
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: so I think he's better than that ra suggests. But
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: he's been pretty bad on the road five point nine
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: to three road yer rain, which based on his road numbers,
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: that does seem a little bit misleadingly high. But he
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: is still way better at home than on the road,
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: So this doesn't look great for him. Here he's in
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: the bad of his home road splits here against a
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: good home offense. Wu was really good in his last outing,
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: a nice bounce back from him after a couple of
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: bad starts. He dominated Baltimore in his last outing, second
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: straight start against Baltimore, but that was at home.
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: Now he's going out.
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: On the road, and I again, I do like Wu generally.
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate. His
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate is fairly good as well, but this does
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: not look like a good matchup for him. Bad for
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: the home road splits, and Pittsburg has hit him in
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: a twenty four career of bats two ninety two average,
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: seven to sixty three ohps, eight to two strike out
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: walk ratio, so Pittsburgh doesn't dominate him, but they have
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: had a slight upper hand against him. So I worry
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: about WU a bit in this matchup here. Braxton Ashtrapt
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: is pitching for Pittsburgh.
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: He's good. I think he's under the radar here. Still.
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: I gave out an under I think in his last
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: Oh No, I gave out Pittsburgh.
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: I think in his last game, and I think they won. Right.
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: That was at the A's if I remember correctly.
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: Ashcraft has been good three point one eight R, one
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: point one whip, not that much worse at home three
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: point four. Homie ra is slightly worse, but not bad.
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: He's been good over his last few outings. Yeah, that
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: last one was at the a Stadium, which is not
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: an easy place to pitch, and he did pretty well there,
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: got us a win in that game.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: He got a win in the game. He's been good overall.
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: Pretty high strikeout rate, low hit rate, low walk rate.
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: Everything looks pretty good here from Ashcraft, and the Mariners
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: do not have good numbers off only an eight at
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: bats though they have I think seven hitters who have
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: based him in their current lineup. Two strikeouts, no walks,
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: two fifty average five hundred ops. So I think Pittsburgh
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: might be the way to look here, but I would
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: go first five. Only it looks like it's a bounce
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: back spot for Pittsburgh here. We're gonna have to rehandicap
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: the White Sox game here, but I will not really,
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: I'm still gonna give out that play, but I'm gonna
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: talk about that in a second. This game, I like
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh here. The money is agreen, but I would only
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: go first five Pittsburgh. You're probably gonna have to pay
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: a little bit more for that, though, because the odds
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: makers know Pittsburgh's bullpen is something that is not good
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: and you want to avoid. We have fifty eight percent
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: of the tickets on Seattle, seventy nine percent of the
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: cash on Pittsburgh, so the money agrees with Pittsburgh here.
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: I think it is a bounce back spot. I like
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: Ashcraft to get it done. I like him to outpitch
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: Wu here. Minus one eighteen is what Pittsburgh is. In
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: the full game, you're probably looking at minus one thirty
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: or something on the first five. That's the way I
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: would play the game is moneyline Pittsburgh verse five. The
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: total is also still low. I mean it has to
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: be low with this pitching matchup. Totals at seven and
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: a half here. I don't trust Pittsburgh's bullpend though I
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: still don't trust WU, so I don't think I would
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: want to do it, but I still wouldn't disagree with
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: the under, though I still think an under is still
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: probably the way to look at that game, even though
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: I know I just said I like a favorite in
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: the first five and if it's gonna be a low
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: scoring game, you don't necessarily want to be on a favorite.
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: So I'm skipping the game, but I have too many
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: concerns about it. But seventy one percent of ticket sixty
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: six percent of the cash on the over under makes
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: sense to me. But I think I would go under
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: verse five. I just can't trust Pittsburgh's bullpen. I know
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: you're gonna be looking at it like a three and
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: a half, maybe even three. I would try to find
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: the under three and a half in the verse five
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: if I was gonna do it that way, though. All right,
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia and Washington, Oh wait, no, I have to handicap
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: this pitching change here for the White Sox. But here's
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: what I think the White Sox are doing. They've listed
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: Chris Murphy I think is his name as the starter
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: here he's gonna be an opener, and I think Fedti
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: is still gonna pitch here. But even if that's not
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: the case, if it's if it's a White Sox bullpend game, whatever,
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: I'm still keeping the Indians as a play here.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: Man. The price hasn't changed.
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: So I think the oddsmakers don't expect this to really
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: affect the game. Here, Murphy, I think it's like a
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: long relief man. Let me check this out here, let
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: me see. Yeah, I don't think he's that good either. Yeah,
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: Murphy's numbers are atrocious too, so him being in there
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: for an inning I think probably helps our cause, even
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: though he's actually been better at home.
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: But I don't want to dig too much into this. Murphy.
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: He's probably gonna go an inning and then they're gonna
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: go to Feedti after that. That would be my guess,
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: so I would play. So I'm gonna change one thing
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: about this. I'm gonna say that when you when you
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: play this game, specify Biby must start and don't specify
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: a White Sox pitcher. That's what I do, because I'm
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: pretty sure it's gonna be either Fetti or Fetti coming
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: in after an opener the White Sox are gonna do
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: one of those two things. I don't want to try
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: to figure out which thing they're gonna do, all though
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: it looks like it is gonna be an opener now,
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: but I would specify baby must start, and don't specify
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: the White Sox pitcher.
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: So that's what I'm gonna go with. That's how I'm
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: gonna grade this play here, all right.
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: And I have to go back and make sure that
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: all the starters listed yesterday actually pitched in the games
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: that I gave out. The A's one definitely was the case.
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: I don't know, I forget it was pitching in the
• 55:34
  Speaker 3: other games I gave out yesterday. Also, Miami wasn't on
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: my card, and I did like that one too. Yeah,
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: we did have the right pitching matchup in Pittsburgh or
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: whatever that game, and then I think the White Sox
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: one was still the same too. Yeah, so yes, all
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: of those bets counted, all right. I'll usually go back
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: and just make sure because.
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: I was I was out. I was at the Strokes
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: concert last night, so I wasn't totally attention to what
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: was going on.
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia at Washington here. This game just on the surface
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: this game looks like an over game to me. With
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: this pitching matchup here, Nola against Mikolas Washington at home.
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: I mean, generally it makes sense to play overs in
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: Washington home games. Their pitching is bad at home and
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: their offense is Even though their offense is better on
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: the road, their offense is still good either way. Yesterday's
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: game went way over. The total fourteen to nine.
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: Ridiculous.
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: The first game of the series went under, though, but
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: that was a Zach Wheeler game, I'm pretty sure, and
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: this is not a Zach Wheeler game today. So this game, yeah,
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: over probably makes the most sense here. Washington's bullpen is
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: not good and when you had an over in the
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: previous game, a lot of times I think, like for
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: me being a contrarian, I kind.
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: Of want to fade what we last saw. But in baseball,
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: when you get an over, I don't really like to
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: fade the over necessarily in the next game, because what
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: happens the bullpens get totally shredded when you have an
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: over game.
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: So a lot of times that domino's into the next game.
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: You could see here Washington's bullpen is in bad shape.
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: They use six relief pitchers yesterday and their bullpen sucks,
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: so that's not good. Philadelphia used three. Philadelphia has the
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: better bullpen here Washington number twenty five and bullpen one
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: of the worst bullpen yea Rays third worst, I believe,
• 57:24
  Speaker 3: not good. Sorry, fourth worst. Actually the A's are worse
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: right now. Philadelphia number twelve in bullpen. Their bullpen is
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: okay offensively. Washington is the better team number three, tied
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: with the A's right now Philadelphia number twenty three, although
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: they're starting to hit a little bit better right now.
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: They did explode in yesterday's game. Aaron Nola pitching for Philly.
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: Like I said, he's generally been bad. Since he's tried
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: to come back from his Tommy John or whatever. It
• 57:52
  Speaker 3: has not worked out for him. I thought he was
• 57:55
  Speaker 3: gonna bounce back because he's still not really that old,
• 57:57
  Speaker 3: but it has not gone well. Point seven to one ERA,
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: one point four to eight whip this season. Not good,
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: only slightly better on the road five.
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: Point six to two. Roady Ray. He's been a little
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: bit better recently though. His last start was pretty good.
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: But it was against the Mets, so that's not a
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: good offense. So he's pitched well against some weak offenses
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: here like San Diego and the Mets, but when he
• 58:21
  Speaker 3: stepped up to face like the White Sox Milwaukee, he
• 58:24
  Speaker 3: was nowhere near as good. So that's not a good
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: sign because he's facing a good offense here, Washington. His
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: numbers in his career are mediocre against Washington in one
• 58:34
  Speaker 3: hundred and thirty six career at BETS. They do have
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: a high average against him to eighty seven ops is
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: below that seven to fifty threshold, so they haven't really
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: hit him for power seven thirty three ops, and he
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: does have a good strikeout walk ratio against him thirty
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: seven is six.
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: That's really good. But still I.
• 58:52
  Speaker 3: Don't trust Nola in his current form against this offense
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: that has seen a lot of him and has decent
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: numbers against him. I think he could give up some
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: runs here, and obviously I think Micholas could give up
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: some runs too, because he's not good, although his era
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: actually makes him look worse than he actually is right now,
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: even though I think he's potentially like I've been pretty
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: much calling him one of the worst pitchers in baseball
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: over the last couple of years, but his whip is
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: actually not that bad At one point two eight his
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: ERA five point four to seven. His whip does indicate
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: that his ERA should be a little bit better than that,
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: but he sucks at home six point three seven home
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: era really bad. He's actually been okay over his last
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: couple of starts. He gave up five runs against Tampa Bay,
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: but lasted pretty deep into the outing. Hasn't put many
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: guys on base via the walk recently, so he's actually
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: pitching alright, like I said, but he doesn't strike anybody out.
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: His hit rate is still kind of high on the season.
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is low, so he doesn't walk guys,
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: but his strike out rate is really low, and he
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: gives up a lot of home runs. So basically he
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: just pitches to contact and he gives up a lot
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: of home runs, so that's not good. His numbers against
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: the Phillies are better than you might think. In one
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: hundred and sixty four at bats, they've seen a lot
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 3: of them though to sixty two average seven thirteen ops,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: so he actually does have the slight upper hand against
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: Phillies offense here. I still would not trust him though
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: at home against an offense that is really familiar with
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: him and his numbers are not exactly excellent against them.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 3: Twenty nine to seven strike out walk ratio. Those way
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: better than you usually get out of him. So I
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 3: still think it.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: Over makes sense. But you know, I wanted the offensive.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: I wanted the matchup numbers to be worse for both
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: these pitchers here, because then I would probably be adding
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: it to my card.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: The money is still agreeing.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: With me here, with fifty to fifty on the tickets,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: seventy seven percent of the cash on the over total
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: is high. It's high for a reason. Nine and a half.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: I still think over is the way to play this game.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia is favored at like minus one thirty something seventy
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: seven percent of tickets eighty four percent of the cash
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: on Philly, so it looks like they're getting some of
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: the money here. I think this series is continuing tomorrow
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 3: to after these teams are one and one in the series.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: Right now, both teams probably show up because it is
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: a divisional matchup.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: Whatever. Favoring Nola on the road.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: Like that just seems kind of insane to me, even
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 3: though I know the White Sox are actually really bad,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: or excuse the Whites, the Nationals, excuse me.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: Are really bad. At home.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: You know, Nola, throughout his career, he's been the better
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: pitcher than Micholas, There's no question about that, but he
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: hasn't really shown any signs of being that guy anymore.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: So over is the way I would play that game.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: I don't really have a great opinion on the side though,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: because I would not really want to back Washington either.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: If you back Washington, you should just go first five
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: with it. But I don't know that it really makes
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: that much sense, and I don't think Micholas is that
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: big of an advantage if he has any. Yeah, Nola,
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 3: he started looking good at the end of last year,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: but this year he's back again.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: So it's not good.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: Houston at Toronto here, And then I think I'll take
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 3: a break because I did already talk about the second
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: game of the Cubs Mets doubleheader, and then I'll come
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: back and finish it off.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: We have a lot of World Cup stuff to talk
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: about today.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 3: Six matches, and I'm giving out a play that's a
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: total motivational angle.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: Houston and Toronto here.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: This looks like a complete pitching mismatch on the service here.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: Toronto has the way better starting pitcher on them with yes,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 3: Savage against Borrows here. Houston, their bullpend got used the
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: last couple of days. Five relief pitchers got used yesterday.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 3: I do not want to trust their bullpend here. You
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: could tell just by looking at the bullpen usage that
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: yesterday's game must have been an extra inning game, and
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: I believe it was.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: Yes it was.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: They went eleven innings yesterday and Houston won the game.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 3: These two teams are continuing this series tomorrow. I know
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: they're not my mistake. This is the last game of
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: the series, even though this is a night game Houston.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: I think actually Houston has to travel and played Detroit tomorrow,
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: so that's kind of interesting. Although it's only from Toronto
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: to Detroit, so it's a short travel leg there, and
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: Toronto stays at home and plays tomorrow as well. But
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: this is the rubber match of the series. Both teams
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 3: have won one game in the series. I'm pretty sure
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: both bullpens are very taxed right now. Toronto used six
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 3: guys as well.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: I would not want to deal with either bullpen here.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 3: Although Toronto has an okay bullpen at number thirteen. Houston
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 3: was pitching better out of the bullpen recently, but I
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: still don't trust them. They still have bad overall numbers,
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: number twenty one overall, even though I know I factored
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: them into an under the other day and it worked out.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: That was Game one of this series. But the starting
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: pitching definitely helped us out obviously in that one, but
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 3: I thought that the pitching setup for the bullpens was
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: still decent in that one. It is not decent here,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: so I would not want to deal with those bullpens.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: Houston is the better offense here. They are number eleven.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: I think where are they at? No, they're tied in
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 3: ninth with Minnesota, and Toronto has not been great. They're
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 3: tied in twenty first with Texas. So Houston does have
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 3: an offensive edge in this game here, as I keep
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 3: going to the wrong tab. Mike Burrows pitching for Houston.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 3: He has not been good at all after they picked
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 3: him up from Pittsburgh. Five point seven to ninety Ray,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: one point five to eight Whip. These are not good numbers.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: He is better on the road though, four point six
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: to eight Roady Ray. So he's been I don't know
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: if I want to say serviceable, but he's been better
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 3: on the road, although still not great.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: He made a relief appearance. I think at his last outing.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know what they were doing, but I guess
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: they figured, well, he's struggling as a starter, so let's
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: give him a different type of pitching appearance here. Let
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: him do something different.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: I don't know what that was, but I'm pretty sure
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: it was a relief appearance.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: He had one scoreless inning against Cleveland.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 3: I mean, Cleveland's offense is bad, but Toronto's offense is
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 3: not that much better, so he might actually be able
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 3: to do okay against Toronto. Only Hayesus Sanchez has ever
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: faced him. He's zero for one, often with a strikeout.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 3: So Burrows is unfamiliar to Toronto, so maybe that gives
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: him a little bit of an advantage here, but I
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 3: still don't trust him.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: Man against Trey A. Savage. A Savage is obviously the
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: better pitcher.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: He's more established already, even though he's only twenty two.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: He already has World Series pitching experience, and he's got
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: a three point seven to six ERA this year, one
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: point one six whip strong numbers here. He's not good
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: at home though, five point four homy Ra, so he's
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 3: been significantly worse at home this year. However, I will
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 3: point out that his opponent batting average at home is
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 3: two twenty four, so that era is kind of misleading.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: He is still pitching fairly well at home. It's just
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: that I think he got a little bit unlucky here.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: He's better than that number would suggest. It was a
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: game where he kind of got lit up against the
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 3: Yankees yere. He did give up six walks in that outing.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: He actually got beat up by the Oriole in the
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: previous start, but if you look at the numbers in
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: that start, that was a much better start than the
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: way it appeared, and so was his other home starting
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: against Miami, where he gave up some runs. He got
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: unlucky in both of those. The only really bad start
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 3: that he had was the walk heavy start against the
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: Yankees here, which is interesting because he actually has dominated
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: the Yankees in his career, but the Yankees had just
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: seen him a couple of weeks prior to that, and
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 3: the Yankees must have adjusted because he did not do well.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: His overall numbers here really low hit rates, that's pretty good.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 3: Strike got raid is all right, but his walk number
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: is too high on the season, so that is something
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: you do have to worry about that his walk number
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: is an issue. He did walk seven guys actually in
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: one of his other starts against Baltimore, where he allowed
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 3: only one run, but that's still to me, that still
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: is a red flag that he had so many walks there.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: But his last start was pretty good against the Red Sox.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: Didn't walk anybody in that one. Although the Red Sox
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 3: are a pretty put raid offense, Houston's offense is better
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 3: than than that. But Houston has never faced a Savage before,
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: so I think he does have an advantage here. I
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 3: think Toronto is the way to look at this game.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 3: I think I would just exclude the bullpens, though, even
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 3: though Toronto might have the better bullpen, I would not
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 3: want to deal with either bullpen. I think laying a
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: half run or something with Toronto in the first five
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: here makes the most sense. But Toronto's minus one fifty
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: something for the full game, so you're probably looking at
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 3: a very high price tag on the first five because
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: the oddsmakers know Toronto's best advantage here is with the
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: starting pitching. But I still think that's probably the way
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: to go is to lay a half run in the
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: first five with Toronto here. You might have to lay
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: about minus one thirty something with that, though I haven't
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 3: looked at the price, but it's probably something like that.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: Eighty one percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 3: cash on Toronto, So the money seems to agree with
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 3: me a bit there, although they seem like a public
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 3: side too.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna be right back.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 3: I already talked about the two double header games here,
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 3: with the second game between the White Sox and the
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 3: or excuse me, the sorry Chicago, the Cubs.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: And the Mets. The Yankees, no, the Mets.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: That's a very difficult game to handicap. By the way,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 3: speaking of the Mets, the Strokes who I saw last night,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: they did play Ode to the Mets in the middle
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: of the set there, which is like a ballad from
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 3: their previous album or whatever, and everybody puts up the phone,
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 3: flashlights and whatever. That song is hilarious. It's a decent song,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: but it's hilarious to me because the song is basically
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 3: about like having relationships that go on too long, and
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: like you let these like toxic situations, the relationships last
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 3: too long, and it's just it all becomes bad. But
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 3: then Julian I guess I guess he's a Mets fan
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 3: and not a Yankees fan. He decided to title the
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 3: song Ode to the Mets just as kind of a
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 3: joke about how you could take this to like, basically,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 3: this describes your relationship with the Mets as a Mets fan,
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 3: even though that's not actually what the song is about,
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 3: but it could be.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: So, I don't know. I just thought that was kind
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: of funny that that's how the that's.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 3: The name of the song. It's just pretty funny. Alright,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna be right back then. I'll finish the show
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 3: off here. I'll finish you guys all off in the
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 3: comment section.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: All right, we're back.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 3: By the way, One thing I forgot to mention in
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 3: that Philadelphia Washington game yesterday, Philadelphia won fourteen to nine,
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 3: but Philadelphia I think scored like eight runs in the
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: ninth inning of that game. Washington was winning that game
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 3: by a decent margin for most of the game. And
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 3: their bullpen is that bad. Their bullpen totally imploded, So
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 3: something of interest. Maybe they're like, maybe I guess Washington
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: could be a little bit hungover coming into that game
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: because of the way they lost the game yesterday.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: But I don't know.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 3: They'll probably still get up for the game against Philly, though,
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 3: we'll see.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: I also see all the NBA draft talk going on
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: right now.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: I didn't even realize the NBA draft first round or
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 3: whatever it was last night, so I know deband from
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 3: Byu was picked first by Washington. He's a really good
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: offensive player, but he's a defensive liability man. The news
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 3: stations around here are talking about it because he's from Massachusetts,
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 3: so Brockton of course.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: But yeah, the Jannis trade.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 3: I don't think I commented on that yesterday, but I
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 3: commented on it the day prior to that. I think
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: I said that I did not want the Celtics to
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 3: get him because they were gonna give up too much
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 3: for him, and it was looking like they were gonna
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 3: give up.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: Brown, Hugo, Jalen Brown, Hugo Gonzalez in two or three
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: first round draft picks. So I'm I'm kind of glad
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: the Celtics did not do that.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: So, you know, the Heat fans are all talking shit
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 3: right now. But I'm not sure how improved the heat
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 3: are really gonna be, especially early on. You might want
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: to fade the heat early this upcoming season because the
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: chemistry might not be there yet and Yannis just gets
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 3: hurt all the time. So whatever, just keep building this
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 3: Celtic team. Man, I don't know much about the Celtics
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 3: draft pick that they had. By the way, towards the
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 3: end of the first round, they took somebody from University
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: of Houston who seems like kind of a.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: Bigger dude.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 3: Like Houston is a good, like fundamental and defensive team though,
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 3: so that's probably what they're looking for there, like a
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: physical paint presence. I think that's the type of guy
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 3: the Celtics just drafted. But whatever, defense in the NBA,
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 3: I think it matters somewhat because I don't know, the
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 3: two teams that made the finals were two of the
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 3: better defensive teams in the NBA, and the Thunder were
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 3: one of the better defenses too, and they made the
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 3: conference finals and probably should have made the finals. It
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 3: matters somewhat, all right, Milwaukee and Cincinnati here, I was
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: pretty shocked that yesterday's game was a two zero final.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 3: I mean, you got Cincinnati hit or friendly ballpark. That
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: game sort of read as an over game to me.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 3: There's also a reason I didn't want to play it
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 3: because I thought that both pitchers were at least capable
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: of doing a little bit better than you would think. Yeah,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 3: very very strange. Though this has been a very low
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 3: scoring series. Two games and we've only seen five total
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 3: runs scored.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: Ridiculous. Does that mean the offense has explode in this game?
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I'm not so sure about that. Cincinnati
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 3: is trying to avoid a sweet peer. So this spot
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 3: for Milwaukee actually doesn't look that good because Milwaukee has
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: already won the series, and they might be looking ahead
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: because I believe they're facing the Cubs next. The Cubs
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 3: play tomorrow the Mets or the yeah, Cubs play tomorrow
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 3: the Brewers. They're playing the Mets still, the Brewers are off,
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 3: but I think on Friday, I think a weekend series
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 3: begins between the Brewers.
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: And the Cobs.
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 3: So I think the Brewers could be looking ahead here
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 3: to that series. That's gonna be a big series between
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 3: the two teams. So I think are the best teams
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 3: in this division. So I think Cincinnati has a little
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 3: bit of a motivational and focus edge here perhaps, but
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 3: I don't really like the starting pitching matchup for them Cincinnati.
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: I also don't like their bullpen.
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 3: They used four guys out of the bullpen yesterday, Milwaukee
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 3: used three. Milwaukee has the better bullpen. They're number ten
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 3: right now. Their ERA is pretty strong. Reds are a
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 3: bad bullpen. They're number twenty eight. They're one of the
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 3: bottom handful of bullpens, so we have a bullpen edge
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 3: for the Brewers here. Brewers also have the better offense here.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 3: The Brewers are ranked thirteenth right now, tied with the
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 3: White Sox. The Reds without Elliott de la Cruz and whatever,
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 3: they've been really struggling offensively.
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: They're at twenty fifth right now, really bad.
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 3: They're going up against Shane Drohan, who he still doesn't
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 3: have his picture on ESPN either. He's been alright three
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 3: point four ERA one point one seven whip here for Milwaukee.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 3: Not as good on the road four point three road ERA,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 3: so maybe he struggles a little bit more.
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 3: He's been effective, I mean, the strike gout rate is
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 3: actually somewhat high, his walk rate is reasonable, hit rate
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 3: fairly low as well, so his overall numbers are actually
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 3: pretty good here. A lot of it's out of the bullpen,
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 3: but since he's joined the starting rotation, he's been pretty
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 3: effective there too, so I don't know what to make
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 3: of that, Like, I don't really know much about him,
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 3: Like you wouldn't expect like a twenty seven year old
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 3: converted reliever to be this good. But he's been effective nonetheless,
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 3: and Cincinnati's never faced him before, so he does have
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 3: that advantage here too, so they might struggle to figure
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 3: him out early on. So I think he might pitch
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 3: alright here. And I don't really like rht Louder who's
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 3: pitching for Cincinnati. Even though the situation looks good for Cincinnati,
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 3: I don't want to back this guy. He's just not
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 3: good enough right now. Four point eight two ERA, one
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 3: point four or five whip those are not good numbers.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 3: He's still young, he's twenty four. He might be able
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 3: to turn this thing around, but I don't know.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: Man. He is better at home three point two to
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: two home.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 3: ERA, so he is in the better of his home
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 3: road splits here, so that's good at least. But his
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 3: walk numbers have been really bad and that definitely worries
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: me here. That's really the main issue here. His strikeout
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 3: rates a bit low too, so he's not really a
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 3: strikeout pitcher. His hit rate is fine, but his walk
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 3: rate is definitely too high, so he's got to do
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 3: something about that. Like he doesn't have the strikeout stuff
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 3: to you know, to kind of negate walking too many guys.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 3: He's not Dylan ces here. His numbers against Milwaukee are
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 3: pretty good, though. The only whatever this is six hitters
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 3: who have faced him before. They're only one for eight
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 3: off him. A Frelick is the only hit free Lick however,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: he pronounce his name. He has a single that's the
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 3: only hit off him. Three strikeouts, four walks, so again,
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 3: too many walks here. One twenty five batting average five
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: forty two oe ps is allowed. Louder is at least
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: in the better of his home road splits. He at
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 3: least draws maybe a decent matchup here, even though Milwaukee
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 3: is not you know, they're.
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: Not an offense that you should really fuck win.
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 3: But Milwaukee also they're not a good power hitting offense though,
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 3: so they might not be able to take advantage of
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 3: this stadium, which may be part of the reason why
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 3: this series has been so low scoring. I believe the
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 3: money is actually backing Cincinnati here.
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: No, it's not.
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 3: It was earlier Milwaukee has seventy seven percent of tickets
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 3: eighty three percent of the cash on them. They're pretty
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 3: heavily priced around minus one forty six here. Maybe too
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: much of a price to lay with Milwaukee here with
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 3: kind of an unproven picture here in a spot that
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 3: I don't think is really good for Milwaukee. I could
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 3: see the argument for Cincinnati here if you're gonna if
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 3: you're gonna try Cincinnati here, I would not.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: Want to include their bullpen though.
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 3: I would just take Cincinnati first five and an underdog
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 3: price and maybe take the shot with that and hope
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 3: you get some value there with the motivation possible that
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 3: both pitchers do alright, and maybe that helps the case
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 3: for the home underdog there, which does seem like maybe
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 3: there is case for a first five under here too,
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 3: But the money is back in the over in the
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 3: full game and the totals nine and a half because
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 3: it's a Cincinnati home game with some unproven starters here.
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 3: But yeah, those are my thoughts on it.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 3: Maybe the better approach is Cincinnati first five. I don't
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: want to deal with that though. Speaking of unders this
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: next game, I like, of course, my first reaction to
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 3: this next game Dodgers Minnesota. I was like under because
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 3: this is Otani versus Ryan. This is a really good
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 3: starting pitching matchup here. But I'm also gonna skip this game.
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 3: I have one more play to give out and this
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 3: is not it, and I forget what it is.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: Actually. Oh no, I know what it is.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 3: Uh yeah, I haven't gotten to it yet. Minnesota has
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 3: a much worse bullpen here. The Dodgers used two guys
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 3: out of the bullpen yesterday, Minnesota used three. Dodgers are
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 3: clearly the better bullpen. Minnesota might have the worst bullpen
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 3: in baseball. Minnesota is also potentially gonna get swept out
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 3: of this series here. The Dodgers have won the first
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 3: two games here. Maybe that means the Dodgers are gonna
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 3: overlook Minnesota, though, because this is the end of the
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: series and the Dodgers play San Diego next, which is
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 3: gonna be a bigger deal for San Diego because the
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 3: Dodgers have a big lead on them in the division
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 3: right now. But maybe it's a look ahead for the
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 3: Dodgers because that's still a division rival. The Dodgers have
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: already won this series, and maybe they don't go all
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 3: out here.
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: For this last game against Minnesota. But I'm not gonna
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: jump out of my seat.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 3: To Fato Tani here though, even if he has been
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 3: a little bit worse recently.
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: The Twins bullpen is awful.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 3: They're dead last in RA and in WHIP, and it's
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 3: kind of significant at this point.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: This is a terrible bullpen.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: Dodgers are number five, although the ray is a little
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 3: bit worse than that, so they're probably not quite that good,
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 3: but they're the better bullpen. The Dodgers are the number
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 3: one offense. Minnesota's tied in ninth. I'm not sure that
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 3: Minnesota's offense is really that good either, So Dodgers are
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 3: obviously the better team. Dodgers are obviously gonna be a
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 3: big favorite here, but Joe Ryan, you're not gonna get
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 3: O'Ryan is a huge underdog like this very often.
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: If ever.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: Otani, like I said, it's pitching for the Dodgers, He's
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 3: obviously pitching well one point four to seventy RA point
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 3: eighty eight whip. He's been even better on the road
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 3: one point two to three. Roady ra struggled a little
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 3: bit in his last two starts, struggling for him, He's
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 3: still had eleven strikeouts and four walks there, which is
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 3: not horrible. Give up four runs against Tampa Bay, but
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 3: got a little bit unlucky there because his command numbers
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 3: were still pretty good. So I'm not again, I'm not
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 3: really looking to fade him here. He's got a really
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 3: low hit rate. Walk rate is pretty decent as well,
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: not as good as you would think, though, and his
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate is pretty high against the Twins. They don't
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 3: have much experience against it. They have five hitters who
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 3: have faced him twelve at bats. Buckston doesn't have a
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 3: home run off him. They have four strikeouts, no walks,
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 3: one sixty seven average five eighty three oh ps. I
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 3: think Otani should pitch well here more often than not.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 3: That's gonna be correct obviously. Also, the Twins are pretty
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 3: inexperienced against him, so that might be a little bit
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 3: of an advantage to him as well.
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: Joe Ryan is pitching from Minnesota. He is good though, two.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 3: Point nine to ninety r one whip, two point eighty
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 3: five RRA at home, so he's been a little bit
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 3: better at home. He's been pitching well recently, has a
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 3: twenty nine to four strikeout walk ratio this month, so
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 3: that's a really good ratio there. In twenty three innings,
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: he's a lot of twenty three hits though, so that's
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 3: a little bit more than you usually expect out of him.
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 3: He does have a low hit rate on the season,
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 3: low walk rate to his strike cut rate is also high,
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 3: so his numbers across the board are pretty good. He's
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 3: still pitching well right now as far as I'm concerned.
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 3: The problem is he does not have good numbers against
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 3: LA They have a two point fifty average where they
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 3: do have an eight seventy nine ohps off him in
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 3: twenty four at bats, so they have been able to
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 3: hit for some power against him. They have six strike cuts,
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 3: five walks against him. All the four of the walks
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 3: are Kyle Tucker, who also has one of the home
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 3: runs off him.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: Actually think Ryan is gonna pitch poorly here? No, not really.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: I mean I still think this is probably an under.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna stay off it.
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 3: But the money looks like it's backing the over sixty
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 3: nine percent of tickets on the over eighty eight percent
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 3: of the cash on the over totals at eight, I
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 3: think first.
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: Five under is the way to go here.
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 3: I think because Minnesota's bullpen is so bad it's skewing
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 3: the total a little bit higher in this game, in
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 3: because the Dodgers' offense is good and they're really good
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 3: on the road.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: I worry about Ryan.
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 3: A little bit with those matchup numbers, but I still
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 3: think a first five under is probably the way to
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 3: look at this game.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: I think it should be a pitching duel.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 3: Dodgers are very heavily priced, like I said, around minus
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 3: one eighty mid one seventies here, eighty seven percent of tickets,
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 3: ninety four percent of the cash on them. The Dodgers
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 3: probably do get it done for the full game. I mean,
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 3: I think they do have the starting pitching, as they
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 3: clearly have the bullpen edge.
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: I just don't think you can lay a price like that.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, you can knock it down a little bit
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 3: by getting the Dodgers on the run line. I still
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 3: don't know if I would want to do that, though.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 3: There is some argument for a Minnesota first five here,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 3: like Ryan might be able to duel Otani here and
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 3: maybe it's close, So maybe first five Minnesota plus I
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 3: have run or something in the first five on the
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 3: spread could make some sense there.
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: But yeah, that's not gonna be anything.
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna deal with Arizona and Saint Louis as this
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 3: show is taken forever as usual.
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis lost yesterday, so both.
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 3: Teams have a one run win in what's been a
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 3: low scoring series, which you might not expect between these
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 3: two teams. But Saint Louis is the more pitcher friendly
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 3: ballpark out of the two though, So do with that
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 3: info what you want, I guess, but both team, both
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 3: games have been low scoring.
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: Both teams have a one run win in the series.
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis used three relief pitchers yesterday, Arizona used four.
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 3: Arizona's bullpen is kind of struggling here at this point.
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 3: They're number nine. I have been saying they're not as
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 3: good as their whips suggests. They're kind of falling off
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 3: a little bit. I don't love this bullpen. I don't
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 3: like Saint louis Is that much either. They're at nineteenth.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 3: I think we have a couple of mediocre bullpens here.
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 3: Don't really love them. Saint Louis has been the better offense.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 3: They're number twelve, Arizona twenty seventh. Arizona really struggling on
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 3: offense recently, Arizona's going with Mitch Bratt here, and I
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 3: think Bratt, yes, he's he's one of those dolls, the
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 3: Brat doll.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: He's making his major league debut. I'm pretty sure here.
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: He's a twenty two year old lefty.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 3: He's kind of on the smaller side at one ninety
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 3: six foot one.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: I looked at his numbers.
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 3: He's not a guy with high velocity, which kind of
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 3: makes sense given what his size is. He throws like
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 3: low to mid nineties fastball, but he does have a
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 3: deep pitch arsenal. He's got slider, curve, change, and cutter,
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 3: I think is what he throws. And I guess he
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 3: has a decent mix there. I guess some of his
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 3: breaking stuff is pretty good. Do with that info what
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 3: you want. His numbers in the MI are.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: Actually pretty good. I looked at his numbers in Triple
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: A this year. It's pretty good. Like his e rays
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: in the two's. His whip is below one.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure in the minors his strikeout rates not
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 3: that good, but the rest of his numbers look good
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 3: in the minors. So he's more of a location and
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 3: pitch you know, location, pitcher, pitcher that relies on off
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 3: speed stuff. Could he pitch well here? Yeah, he definitely
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 3: could in a more pitcher friendly park. Here, Saint Louis
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 3: will have never seen him before, of course, so that
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 3: might be a little bit of an extra edge. He's
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 3: already got his mug shot up here on ESPN, so
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 3: ESPN's on the ball with him here, so that might
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 3: mean he's a decent prospect. I think Arizona considers him
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 3: to be like their fifth best pitching prospect in the
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 3: organization right now or something.
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: But he might pitch alright here.
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 3: Man, It's it's a bit of a question mark there,
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 3: but I might lean towards him pitching well here. Matthew
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 3: Liberatory is pitcher for the Cardinals. Don't think he's very good.
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 3: Five point two three e Rara one point five to
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 3: six whip is really bad. He is a little bit
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 3: better at home four point five to eight Homie ral
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 3: though that's still not excellent. He was really bad in
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 3: his last outing against Kansas City. I gave it a
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 3: winner on the show on that one with the Kansas
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 3: City first five. Cameron wasn't great in the game, but
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 3: Libratory was awful. So we got that done. Liberatory has
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 3: been terrible in every start this month. He's allowed more
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 3: runs than innings pitched.
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: Just awful stuff.
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know what else to say about this
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 3: not in good form right now. His hit rate is
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 3: way too high. He's a lot a lot of home runs.
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is also high. His strike out rate
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 3: is not really that good either. Arizona also has had
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 3: the upper hand offensively against him with a three fifty
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 3: seven average seven eighty six oh ps. They haven't had
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 3: much power against him, but only fourteen at bats, five
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 3: hitters have faced him, only one extra mase hit double
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 3: from Marte. But even so, I don't think Libratory is
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 3: going to really have a great time here. Two strikeouts,
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 3: no walks there in that matchup.
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: But still I like Arizona here.
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 3: Probably don't really love their bullpen though, So maybe Arizona
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 3: first five makes the most sense here. Maybe yeah, there
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 3: could be a reason here, you know, back the guy
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 3: in his major league debut when nobody knows who he
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 3: is yet.
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: We pretty much know Laboratory is probably gonna suck.
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 3: But maybe that being the case, maybe Arizona over their
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 3: team total is what makes the most sense here. Saint
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 3: Louis is at minus one sixteen or so here on
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 3: the price, So you're getting Arizona's a little bit of
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 3: an underdog here, and you probably will get them as
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 3: an underdog in the first five too, although maybe not.
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: It might be close.
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 3: The full game total is nine fifty tickets eighty four
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on the over. But yeah, I
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 3: think to take maybe the question mark of Bratt out
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 3: of the equation Arizona to go over their team total
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 3: might make sense here, even though their offense has struggled.
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 3: I think they should get something done against the Saint
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 3: Louis pitching situation for once, So maybe that's what makes
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 3: the most sense. You probably get a reasonable number on that.
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 3: You'll probably only need him to score four runs maybe,
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 3: so that seems somewhat reasonable there. Atlanta at San Diego,
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 3: though I know their offense has struggled. Speaking of struggling
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 3: offenses San Diego. Although San Diego broke out yesterday as
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 3: a Garrett was lamenting, it was an extra inning game
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 3: though right San Diego won the game seven to six yesterday.
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 3: They have two one run wins in this series. Atlanta's
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 3: probably not gonna overlook San Diego at this point, Man,
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 3: Atlanta probably wants to avoid the sweep here in San Diego.
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 3: Like I told you, they do have the Dodgers next,
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 3: so San Diego might be looking ahead to the Dodgers
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 3: because this is the last game of this particular series. Here,
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 3: Atlanta probably will be the more motivated team, although San
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 3: Diego might still get up for this game because it
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 3: isn't Lanta and it would be crazy if they swept them,
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 3: so they might still not overlook them. But they do
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 3: have the Dodgers next, so there is the potential look
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 3: ahead there. San Diego's bullpen got ran out yesterday. Man,
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 3: they use every buddy, so their bullpen is it's a
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 3: good bullpend, but they're not in good shape right now.
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 3: They use six guys out of the bullpen, Atlanta only
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 3: US three, and they have somewhat of a deeper bullpen
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 3: and actually a better bullpen, So Atlanta's bullpen sets up
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 3: better here. And then the number one bullpen San Diego's
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 3: number six, and I think they're really the number two bullpen,
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 3: which is where they are in era. But their bullpen
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 3: is definitely an a rest disadvantage. So Atlanta does have
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 3: a bullpen advantage here for sure. Atlanta is the better
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 3: offense as well. They've fallen off a little bit. They're
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 3: at number seven. San Diego is still dead last thirtieth,
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 3: really bad. Atlanta's going with Martin Perez, who is continuing
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 3: to pitch well. Two point seven eighty ra one point
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 3: oh seven Whip. I mean again, I know he's an
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 3: aging like you know, kind of a junk pitcher, control pitcher,
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 3: but he's pitching well. Gotta give him credit for that.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 3: He hasn't been as good on the road though, three
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 3: point eighty six Roady Ray, but he pitched pretty well
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 3: again last time out against Milwaukee. Yeah, I mean, not
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 3: a lot to really dislike here. Out of what he's done.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 3: He's a lot more than tour and runs only twice
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 3: this season, more than more than tour and runs three
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 3: times excuse me, no more than four in any of
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 3: his outings, and more than three only twice. He's a
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 3: lot of very low hit rate here is walk rate's
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 3: a little bit too high. Strike out rate is not high,
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 3: but obviously he's not a strikeout pitcher.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: Could he pitch well here?
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, of course, because he's having a good season and
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 3: this is gonna be one of the best matchups for him,
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 3: I think, given that this is a pitcher friendly ballpark
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 3: in San Diego's offense has been awful, and he does
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 3: have pretty good numbers against him. In sixty seven at bats,
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 3: only five of their hitters have faced him, but obviously
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 3: it's the veteran hitters that have all faced him Avourn
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 3: only Manny Machado has really hit him well, nobody else has.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 3: They have ten strikeouts nine walks against him, so the
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 3: walk number is high, but Machado has five of those,
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 3: so he might be able to just pitch around him.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: But overall he's held them to two pho nine average
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: five eighty six oh ps.
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 3: So I do think Perez looks like he should continue
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 3: to pitch well here San Diego is gonna go with
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 3: JP Sears, so I think hasn't pitched for a while. Actually,
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 3: he hasn't pitched this season yet.
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: He's had a weird career. He started out with the Yankees.
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 3: He looked pretty good with Oakland for one plus seasons
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 3: kind of, but then he started struggling. But of course,
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 3: you know, last year he kind of struggled because the
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 3: A stadium is awful, so you got to give him
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 3: a little bit of a pass for that, but I
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 3: don't know why. But he pitched really poorly for San
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 3: Diego after that, and you got to think that going
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 3: from pitching in the A's stadium that they've had the
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 3: last couple of seasons to go into San Diego, that
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 3: should increase like that should improve your numbers like a lot,
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 3: And it didn't for him. He was pitching worse. So
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to make about that. His overall
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 3: career numbers are kind of mediocre, so I think that
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 3: is what he is. He's a mediocre pitcher. I don't
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 3: really have a whole lot else to say about that.
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 3: But he's making his season debut here. Atlanta has obviously
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: they've seen him before because he's been around for a while.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 3: Sixty seven at bats against him, two point nine average,
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 3: five to seventy five OPS, ten to two strike out
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 3: walk ratio, So Sears has actually done well against Atlanta
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 3: in his history, so he might be able to actually pitch.
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: All right here. I do lean Atlanta here.
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 3: I think Perez is probably the more trustworthy starter, which
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 3: kind of sounds a little crazy, but I think that
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 3: might be the case where are we looking here?
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: Where is this game? There? At is National League?
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 3: Eighty one percent of tickets, eighty nine percent of the
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 3: cash on Atlanta. You're laying a bit of a price
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 3: here at minus one thirty or so here, But I
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 3: think they might have the starting pitching edge, they should
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 3: have the motivational edge, and they have a bullpen at
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 3: edge here too, So Atlanta probably does have at least
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 3: a slight advantage throughout this game. And there's a reason
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 3: they're favored on the road as well, though it almost
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 3: looks too easy to play Atlanta though at kind of
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 3: a low price there. I wouldn't really disagree with the
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 3: first five under here either. I don't really love the
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 3: bullpen situation really for San Diego because they just use
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 3: way too many guys yesterday.
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: Because normally I would say full game under might make sense.
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 3: Money is hitting the over though, seventy five percent of
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 3: the tickets, ninety four percent of the cash on the
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 3: over totals around eight. But it's a pitcher friendly park,
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 3: you know, I mean one offense that really struggles here,
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 3: San Diego. Good matchup numbers from these pitchers here for
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 3: the most part, So first five under makes some sense.
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 3: To me in that game, and then finally we have
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 3: my other baseball players in this last game. You know
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 3: what it is. I'm just gonna keep doing it because
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 3: it keeps working. We're gonna back Gauge Jump again here.
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 3: We're gonna go right back with the A's again here.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 3: Even though they didn't get there for us yesterday. We
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 3: got a better pitching matchup this time. So we're gonna
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 3: take the A's first five. I know it's a little
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 3: bit juicy and minus one thirty five or so. If
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 3: you want to get the price down, you could lay
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 3: the half run, but I'm just gonna go with the
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 3: money line. And then of course with the half run,
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 3: you need them to be leading after five. But with
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 3: the money line, if it's tied, you'll push your bet.
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 3: So that's why you have to pay more for it.
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 3: I think I like this though. I mean, San Francisco
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 3: did catch us yesterday. I'm just shocked that the A's
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 3: didn't put up more offense there. I don't know what
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 3: that was. I thought it was a really bad spot
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 3: for San Francisco. Returning to the West Coast, the A's
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 3: are already on the West Coast in the general area
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 3: so it was a way better travel spot for the A's.
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 3: I don't know what that was, but I think we
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 3: can back the A's here, and we back gauge jump
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 3: three starts in a row, and we've won every single
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 3: one of those plays. I'm pretty sure the Aas used
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 3: three relief pitchers yesterday, but I'm counting the A's bullpen
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 3: out here.
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: I don't want to deal with this bullpen. They're not good.
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: San Francisco is a very rested bullpen here. They've literally only.
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 3: Used one relief pitcher in the last three days, according
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 3: to this.
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's inaccurate.
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 3: I think they did have one of those days off
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 3: though they were off on Monday. Yeah, for sure, So
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 3: they do have a rested bullpen here, and they do
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 3: have the better bullpen, even though San Francisco's ranked.
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: Twenty fourth, the A's are twenty third.
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 3: But San Francisco's ERA is better than all these teams
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 3: around them. They're a better bullpen, at least if you
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 3: look at what they did last year, they're the better
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 3: bullpen here. So we'll factor the A's bullpen out of
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 3: this equation. The A's have the better offense number three,
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 3: so hopefully we can take advantage of that. Here the
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 3: Giants are number eleven or something here Where are they at?
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but I don't think they're that good.
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 3: We've seen in this series the Giants offense has completely
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 3: dropped off again.
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: This is a pitcher from the ballpark. The Giants offense
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 1: is not good at home.
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 3: They had a couple of fluky offensive showings, but they're
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 3: not a good offense. And they're going up against Gage
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 3: Jump here, who he's been really good dude, two point
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 3: three seven e ra point nine to nine whip and
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 3: I know offenses might start figuring him out eventually, but
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 3: his numbers look good and we've won the A's have
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 3: won his last four outings. They've won every outing of
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 3: his acceptance opener. I've given you guys a play. I
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 3: think I've given out a play on three out of
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 3: the four of these.
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: I think is what this is.
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 3: On Jump, and we've won all of them. I think
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 3: they were all first five plays too. But we want
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 3: every single one of them. So I'm gonna continue doing
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 3: it because it keeps working. And he's got a low
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 3: hit rate of low walk rate here, strike out rate
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 3: is okay, He's not a huge strikeout pitcher, but I
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 3: think he should do our right here. It's a more
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 3: pitcher friendly environment here. He's faced some offenses that are
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 3: certainly better than San Francisco's, and San Francisco has never
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 3: faced him before, so I think Jump should have the
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 3: jump on San Francisco here. The way he's been pitching
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 3: against these offenses that are not familiar with him, he
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 3: should have the upper hand here.
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: So I like that, and we're gonna fade.
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 3: Tyler Molly here, who is not having a good season.
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 3: Six point zero four ERA one point five to four whip.
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 3: That is some really gross stuff here, although he is
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 3: actually better at home though, three point nine Homie ra
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 3: So I know he is actually significantly better at home,
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 3: but his walk number has still been pretty bad both
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 3: home and away, so I don't really trust him here.
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: He's been injured.
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 3: He's missed almost an entire month here, and I know
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 3: veteran pitchers coming back from injury a lot of times
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 3: they pitch better because they get pumped up to be
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 3: back out there. But I don't think he's gonna farewell here, man.
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 3: Just his overall numbers are bad, his walk numbers are bad.
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 3: He faced the as shortly before.
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: He went down.
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 3: It was in the AS Stadium, I know, so it
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 3: was a worse pitching environment for him. But the A's
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 3: lit him up for five runs on ten hits in
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 3: five innings, and the strike up was excuse. The home
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 3: run ball was not what did him in in that game.
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: He gave up.
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 3: One, so he was just extremely hit able in that game.
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 3: He didn't really walk many people in that game, so
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 3: that was good, but still he didn't do well in
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 3: that start. His overall numbers here he's allowed way too
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 3: many hits, his walk numbers way too high. He's allowed
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 3: a lot of home runs too, which may be a
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 3: little bit better in this stadium, but still I don't
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 3: trust it. His strike up rate is actually all right,
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 3: but the rest of his numbers are awful.
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: And you know what's coming here.
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 3: His matchup numbers are not good against the A's, so
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 3: obviously we know he did bad last time out of
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 3: the A's stadium, but it's not just that one start.
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 3: They have thirty five at bats against him three forty
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 3: three average nine to thirty three ops, so they have
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 3: definitely been able to do offensive damage against him. Nine strikeouts,
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 3: one walk. That's a good ratio for him. But the
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 3: rest of these numbers are not good. So I think
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 3: we have a pretty big pitching advantage here.
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: We're gonna do it. We'll we'll keep playing gage jump Man.
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 3: Seventy one percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 3: on the A's. They are favored, like I said, minus
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 3: one eighteen on the full game. We're gonna pay a
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 3: little bit more to get them in the first five,
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 3: which obviously the oddsmakers are telling you the biggest advantage
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 3: for the A's is the first five because they're bullpen blows.
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 3: But that's also why I'm gonna do it here. Like
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 3: I know that is the case as well. I'll pay
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 3: a little bit extra for it.
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 1: We'll go a's first five money line there, dirty sock,
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 3: A's first five and minus one fifteen. Really, I did
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 3: not see anything even.
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: Close to that.
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 3: I don't I don't know, man, let me look. I'm
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 3: gonna look right now. Uh No, I see minus one
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 3: twenty one now though minus one twenty five at the
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 3: M book. I see minus one twenty one at the
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 3: B book. I mean, I'll update it if you want,
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 3: I mean, why not. I mean, I have not actually
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 3: bet this, so yeah, why not. It's a better price
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 3: on it, So all right, I'll update it to minus
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 3: one twenty one. That feels a little bit better anyway,
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 3: there you go. I mean, if you have minus one fifteen,
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 3: then yeah, then I would say, obviously do that if
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 3: that's what they're offering. But usually, like it doesn't matter,
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 3: like state per state. If it's the same book, usually
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 3: the number is the same though at that same book.
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: So I don't know.
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 3: I see minus one twenty five at that book though,
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 3: but still that's better than minus one thirty five. So
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 3: all right, good catch, good looking out better number there.
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 3: And that's it for baseball here, man, I don't think
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 3: I have a whole lot else to say about anything here.
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 3: We do have the dictator is actually gonna be pitching
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 3: Game one for the Cubs here, so I forgot about him, man.
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 3: I should have known it was gonna be him because
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 3: he hasn't pitched for a while. So if you want
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 3: to look at that real quick, he's pitching in the
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 3: afternoon game against Nolan McLain Javier Assad going here, so
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 3: let's take a look at his numbers really quick.
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: Here, he's not.
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 3: Even listed on their depth chart because he's not considered
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 3: to be one of their actual starters. Assad has been good,
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 3: though three point eight to ninety ra one whip a
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 3: lot of it's out of the bullpen.
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 1: Hasn't been good on the road though. He's got a
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 1: six Roady Ray.
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 3: Kind of a red flag, and his last out he
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 3: they only had one strikeout against the Rockies.
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 1: But since he's been in the starting rotation, he's.
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 3: Delivered three pretty good starts in a row and he's
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 3: been pretty unhittable. So he's been good, but he's not
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 3: that good. He's not really a strikeout pitcher. His numbers
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 3: against the Mets are actually pretty solid though, in thirty
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 3: seven at bats to forty three average six seventy eight ops,
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 3: so Assad actually matches up okay there. So that makes
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 3: me like the Mets side less in that game, even
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 3: though I said I kind of liked the blindly firing
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 3: on the Mets in that game, and I still slightly
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 3: lean to the Mets there. But now, of course the
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 3: line is switched. So like I said, you were getting
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 3: the Mets as an underdog, now you're not going to
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 3: You're gonna get the.
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: Mets, is actually a.
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 3: Slight favorite here, although that seems a little weird to me,
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 3: like the like why would the Cubs have.
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: Been a favorite at all?
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 3: Like Asad is actually one of their better choices for
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 3: a starter here, Like why would the Cubs favored like that?
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 3: You know, if one of their better options that they
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 3: could possibly go with is still gonna like shift the
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 3: number towards the Mets.
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: I don't really get that. But I think a first.
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 3: Five under, actually maybe a full game under makes some
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 3: sense here. Actually first five right, because I think I
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 3: said these teams played extra innings yesterday, right, So first
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 3: five under I think makes some sense in that game. Actually,
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 3: let me make sure of that, am I right? I'm
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 3: I'm forgetting everything now. No, they did not play the
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 3: extra innings yesterday.
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 3: I mean, both bullpens are all right, but I don't know.
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 3: Some sort of under in that in that afternoon game
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 3: makes some sense to me in that one. And then
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 3: we do not have a pitcher listed for the Cubs
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 3: in the night game still, all right, So I just
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 3: noticed that, so I had to talk about it. But
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 3: as far as the total in the A's and San
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 3: Francisco game, the money is back in the over in
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 3: that game, the totals eight, I don't really have a
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 3: good gauge on the total. There a gauge jump. I
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 3: don't have a jump on the gauge on that game.
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 1: No, I don't know. I think I don't know, man.
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: I mean I could see.
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 3: An argument from maybe the A's over their team total.
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 3: There could be an argument there, But we're just gonna
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 3: play the A's in the first five. Yes, No, I'm dude.
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 3: I need to just do it. I need to bet
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 3: more of these things. Like I'm giving out all these
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 3: plays exactly as if I was still betting them. But
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 3: I have concerns about my money here, man, I should
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 3: just do it, because this should just be my profit
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 3: mechanism at this point. But no, like when I was
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 3: actually betting these things, I had my actual job and
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 3: my actual income to fall back on. I should just
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 3: do it and stop being you know, a bitch and
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 3: start betting actual more money on these things.
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 1: Minus one fifteen. Well that's good.
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 3: I don't see it here in Massachusetts, but whatever, all right,
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 3: we gotta get this done.
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 1: Man. This is such a long fucking show. I hate it, dude.
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 3: I see I like talking about this, but it like
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 3: really really gets uh you know, like it tires me
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 3: out and my sinuses get really bad and shit, all right,
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 3: uh wnba, I mean it's easier to do these more
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 3: sitch situational handicaps. Phoenix at Indiana on USA Network. This
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 3: is a rematch of a game that just happened where
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 3: Indiana won the game eighty six to seventy seven.
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: So this could be a bit of a zigzag for
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 1: Phoenix here.
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 3: Phoenix, I still don't think it's as bad as the
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 3: record looks, even though Indiana's the better team. Indiana did
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 3: win and cover barely in this first game. They covered
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 3: the seven and a half in this game. The number
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 3: is a little bit bigger in this game. But if
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 3: we dive into this a little bit, there were there
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 3: were some outliers here. Phoenix was bad from three point range.
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 3: They only made five threes in.
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: Indiana made ten, so Indiana was plus fifteen from three
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: point range.
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 3: So that is an outlier that you could look to
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 3: regress here. Indiana also had six more free throws made
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 3: in the game, so that might regress slightly as well here.
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 3: So there are some regression points here that would kind
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 3: of indicate towards Phoenix.
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: I have some concerns though, because.
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 3: Indiana like they handed Phoenix some possessions by having way
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 3: too many turnovers, so Indiana might actually be able to
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 3: clean that up a little bit. And Indiana dominated the
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 3: rebounds by ten, so that worries me a little bit
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 3: that Phoenix got completely dominated in the paint. But we
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 3: could see some shooting regression here and maybe some progression
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 3: from Phoenix here and regression from Indiana. So I still
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 3: lean to Phoenix in tonight's game. Indiana does not really
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 3: have a look ahead though they're playing La next. I
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 3: don't think that's that big of a deal. But yeah,
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 3: I think generally the zigzag might work in this game.
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: I do have a WNBA play. This is not it,
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 1: though the money is disagreeing on this.
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 3: Indiana fifty nine percent of the tickets, ninety five percent
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 3: of the cash on them at about minus eight and
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 3: a half minus seven and a half here, I don't
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 3: agree with that. I would take the points with Phoenix there,
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 3: but not my strong opinion. My strong opinion is in
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 3: this next game, which is not on TV, and this
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 3: is a zigzag Minnesota at Washington. This is gonna be
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 3: a play I like this, man, We're gonna lay the
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 3: points in Minnesota here, the best team, even though they
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 3: still don't have call here. But I like that here
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 3: because if Collier was coming back in this game, she's
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 3: like one of the best players.
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: In the WNBA.
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 3: And if she was coming back from Minnesota here, I
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 3: would like this less because Minnesota would be probably like
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 3: minus twelve here and you have to lay more and
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 3: you know, they'd have to deal with the chemistry issues
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 3: with her coming back. You know, I always talk about
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 3: that the reverse injured player theory. First game that a
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 3: star player comes back, sometimes they're not quite up to
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 3: you know, they're not back in like full game shape yet,
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean. The team has to readjust
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 3: and whatever, and you usually have to pay.
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 1: Too much for it.
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 3: So I'm glad that she's not coming back yet. As
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 3: far as this play here, we don't have to worry
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 3: about the reverse injured player theory here, and we have
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 3: a lot of situational aspects to this game that I like.
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 3: Washington is returning home from a road trip that they've
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 3: been on since June fourteen, so they've been on an
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 3: extended road trip.
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 1: It was mostly on the East Coast.
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 3: I know they mostly stayed on the East Coast, but
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 3: they did go to Minnesota, which is going to be
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 3: part of my handicap as well. And they finished the
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 3: road trip by upsetting the Liberty on Friday, which was
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 3: a huge upset for them. The Liberty are the best
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 3: team in the East. Basically, they're going to be the
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 3: Cup representative. And I was correct about last night's game too.
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 3: By the way, the Liberty won against Las Vegas last night,
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 3: so my opinion was right in that game too. That
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 3: was a huge upset for Washington. And then what did
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 3: they do after that? They went to Minnesota and the
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 3: upset Minnesota as like fourteen point underdogs in that game,
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 3: And now you're getting Minnesota as an eight and a
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 3: half point favorite.
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 1: Here on the road here.
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 3: You might have to lay nine now, but that still
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 3: seems pretty reasonable to me. I don't think you get
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 3: that much home court advantage here in the WNBA, So
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 3: I think that that line is a little bit short actually,
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 3: to be honest, based on that last game. But Washington's
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 3: inn't a horrible for so many reasons.
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 3: It's a road trip returns, you know, I talk about
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 3: that when a team returns home from the road, a
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 3: lot of times, they have to get back to home
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 3: stuff to do, they have to get they could get
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 3: distracted whatever. I know, you're not necessarily gonna be distracted
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 3: when you're playing Minnesota. But the problem with that is
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 3: that Minnesota is not gonna overlook Washington here because Minnesota
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 3: just lost to them, so you know, Minnesota is gonna
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 3: take them seriously now. And you know, I like when
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 3: a team loses is a huge favorite. I like to
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 3: play on that team in the next game because something
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 3: went wrong that usually doesn't go wrong for them, and
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 3: usually they make the adjustments and bounce back and they refocus.
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 3: It's even better when they're playing the same team because
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 3: they know exactly what happened and how to beat that
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 3: team the next time. And the other thing about it
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 3: is that the underdog. I like fading underdogs when they
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 3: pull off a huge upset, and Washington has done that
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 3: twice in a row. I think they were a double
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 3: digit dog maybe in both of those games. So Washington's
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 3: in a double letdown spot here, plus the return home spot,
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 3: plus this is the zigzag spot. So yeah, a lot
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 3: of things to like about Minnesota here. Minnesota. They do
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 3: play Dallas next. I mean, debatably, that's kind of a
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 3: big game, but they slaughtered Dallas for the last time
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 3: they played them, So I don't know, man, I think
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 3: they'll still focus here on Washington.
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 1: They're starting the road trip here.
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 3: They know what Washington just did to them, so Minnesota's
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 3: gonna want to come out and beat them in this game.
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 3: Minnesota is the way better team in Minnesota, by the way,
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 3: was winning basically.
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: This entire game. That game that they lost to Washington.
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 3: Washington just somehow kind of fluked to a win at
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 3: the end of the game. Here, Minnesota shot terribly in
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 3: the game from three, nineteen.
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: Percent from three. You know that they're not gonna do
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 1: that again.
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 3: They're not gonna get outshot from three point range again.
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 3: I don't think Washington did only hit seven, but still
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 3: four to three pointers is just ridiculous.
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 1: And even more ridiculous is.
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 3: That Washington went to the line twenty nine times to
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 3: Minnesota's fourteen. Do you think that's gonna happen again. Is
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 3: Washington gonna go to the free throw line more than
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 3: twice as many times as Minnesota this time? Probably not.
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 3: That's a major outlier. So Washington had eight more free
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 3: throws made in the game. There were plus nine from
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 3: three point range, and they only won the game by five,
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 3: So that's not exactly a great sign for Washington here.
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 3: I think there's gonna be some regression and progression here Minnesota.
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 3: The free throws are probably gonna even out. Minnesota is
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 3: not gonna be that bad from three point range. Minnesota
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 3: did have more possessions in the game, at least as
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 3: far as the field goal attempts. They had ten more,
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 3: so that kind of indicates they were the better team
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 3: in the game. They did lose the rebound battle, so
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 3: I know that kind of worries me a little bit
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 3: that Washington did seem to kind of dominate the game
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 3: and the paint with the fact that they went to
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 3: the line where they won the rebound battle. But Minnesota
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 3: is just clearly the better team though, so I'm not
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 3: gonna worry about that too much here. And yes, Minnesota
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 3: did win the turnover battle in that game. Both teams
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 3: had quite a few turnovers in that game. But we're
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 3: playing on the better team in the zig zag spot here.
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 3: I know it is a little bit of a lower
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 3: total here, and I don't love laying points of the
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 3: lower total, but this is a spot that I don't
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 3: want to pass up.
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: I just told you how good the.
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 3: Spot is here sixty four percent of the tickets, ninety
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 3: five percent of the casual Minnesota, or how bad the
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 3: spot is for Washington. It looks like you have to
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 3: lay about nine nine and a half now. It was
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 3: eight and a half when I looked this morning, though,
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 3: But I would still do it at nine nine and
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 3: a half. I still think they're gonna do it, so
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 3: that would be my play there. Yeah, I would still
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 3: I would still.
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 1: Play it at that or I would try to find
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 1: a not maybe try to find a nine. But I
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 1: don't know. There's not much of a difference.
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 3: Like we're still we're talking about over the seven is
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 3: the key number in basketball, so eight, eight and a half, nine,
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 3: there's not a huge difference there between those points.
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 1: They better just get it done, though, Portland.
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 3: At Chicago, people are gonna look at this and think,
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 3: why is Chicago favored? That's gonna be if the public
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 3: looks at this, how could Chicago favored? When they're four
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 3: and twelve Portland's eight and nine. Chicago only has one
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 3: win at home this year. Well, Chicago has had injuries
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 3: to deal with, Like the oddsmakers are telling you they're
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 3: actually the better team over this Portland expansion team here,
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 3: and I don't know if maybe Chicago is getting some
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 3: of their players back here finally, I don't know, but
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 3: the oddsmakers are clearly telling you something by lining the
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 3: team with the lesser record as a favorite here. So
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 3: that does catch my eye. Chicago has lost a bunch
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 3: of games in a row. They've lost six in a row.
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 3: I do have a little bit of a concern here,
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 3: not just that they're not playing well, but they did
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 3: just They're returning over from a road trip here, so
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 3: that does worry me a little bit. But it was
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 3: only Saturday Monday, so that doesn't worry me as much
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 3: here that it was a shorter road trip and they
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 3: just got absolutely embarrassed. Dude, Like, how could you be
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 3: more embarrassed than losing by almost thirty points to the
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 3: worst team in the league Connecticut. It doesn't get much
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 3: more embarrassing than that. So I think you're gonna get
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 3: an effort out of Chicago here. They played Portland in
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 3: the opener, actually, so there is I guess a little
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 3: bit of a revenge motive for Portland here because Portland
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 3: Chicago went into Portland in the season opener and beat
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 3: them in Portland, so maybe Portland will show up here too.
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 3: But Chicago's not going to overlook anybody with the way
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 3: they've been playing.
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 3: I mean that loss that they just had against Connecticut
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 3: is probably the worst loss any team has had this season.
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 3: You can't lose by thirty points to the worst team
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 3: in the league.
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 3: Portland is coming in off of a win over Seattle.
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 3: Seattle is not a good team. Portland just beat them.
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 3: They're starting a road trip, so it's not a bad
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 3: spot for Portland. I have a slight lean to Chicago here,
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 3: just because the line looks really misleading, like why would
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 3: they be favored like this three and a half. But
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 3: this is not a play obviously. My only play is Minnesota.
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 3: Eighty eight percent of the tickets, ninety percent of the
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 3: cash on Chicago and then Atlanta. Golden State is the
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 3: most competitive of these matchups here well, and at least
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 3: in als two good teams as far as the WNBA
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 3: is concerned, And it's on TV, it's part of the
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 3: USA Doubleheader, and CNBC, So you can learn about economics,
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 3: why you're a you can learn about finances, you can
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 3: you can learn about how the wnd NBA players, how
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 3: the WNBA is completely propped up by the NBA and stuff,
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 3: and how the wnd NBA players are overpaid. Because nobody
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 3: watches this shit, don't cancel my channel. Golden State's coming
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 3: off an ugly loss to Las Vegas. It was Las Vegas, though,
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 3: they were a good team. I thought Golden State would
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 3: be more competitive in that game, though, but they weren't.
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 3: But they're traveling back home from just a single game
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 3: in Vegas, not really a long road trip here or anything.
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 3: So I think Golden State's gonna show up for this,
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 3: but I think Atlanta will also show up. Atlanta is
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 3: starting a road trip here.
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 1: Could be a difficult.
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 3: Spot for Atlanta though, just because you know what I
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 3: always talk about the road situation. When you have an
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 3: East Coast team going out west to start a road
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 3: trip like this and playing a ten PM Eastern game,
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 3: that East Coast team could be a little bit messed up. Man,
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 3: by the way, their biological clock is later in that game.
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 3: So I don't love that for Atlanta, and that seems
• 1:55:11
  Speaker 3: to be the biggest negative year that we have, even
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 3: though Atlanta is coming into this game with some momentum.
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 1: So I think I lean slightly to Golden State here.
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 3: Plus the points you're getting two and a half here
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 3: not a strong opinion for me. Eighty two percent of
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 3: the tickets, eighty eight percent of the cash on Atlanta.
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 1: But they're gonna be a bit of a public side probably.
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 3: I think Golden State's still a little bit better than
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 3: people think they are. These teams are probably both gonna
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 3: be in the playoffs. Playoffs, and the totals really low,
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 3: by the way, one sixty five and a half. So
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 3: Atlanta's a good defensive team. It's expected to be a
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 3: defensive game based on that, even though the money's coming
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 3: in on the over, I think an under might make
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 3: some sense there, Like Atlanta's offense might be off based
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 3: on the travel here and whatever, so an undermake sum sense.
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 3: You might see teams focusing on defense here in a
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 3: game like that, So something like that.
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you're gonna you're gonna learn about the the gender.
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, pay gap, that doesn't exactly, that doesn't actually exist.
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 1: Don't cancel my channel, all right?
• 1:56:12
  Speaker 3: Then we have World Cup. I'm giving out a World
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 3: Cup play here. There's a lot to kind of take
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 3: in here with the World Cup. These are We're now
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 3: into the third matchups of the group stage. So we're
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 3: now into situations where we have teams that are eliminated.
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 1: We have teams that have motivation for various reasons.
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 3: We have teams that have already clinched and that might
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 3: not be motivated.
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 3: First game is Bosnia Herzegovina and Codder at three pm Eastern.
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 3: All these games are on Fox, Fox Sports one, Fox
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 3: Won whatever the hell, and Universo and Telemundo. I don't know, man,
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 3: whatever this game is in Seattle. I believe Cutter, I
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 3: believe is coming in for playing in Vancouver. And Bosnia Erzegovina.
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 3: We faded them in their last game against Switzerland and
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 3: we got an easy win with that. Uh, they played
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 3: in California, I think, so these teams are both staying
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 3: on the West coast. Cutter has I guess a little
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 3: bit of an edge in the travel just that they're
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 3: coming in just from Vancouver. But Bosnia Herzegovina is the
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 3: better team, as the Osbakers are telling you. They're minus
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 3: two sixty five on the three way lines. They're a
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 3: pretty substantial favorite here and I think both teams actually
• 1:57:21
  Speaker 3: have motivation here because I pulled.
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 1: Up the standings. If you look at what's going on
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 1: in this group.
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 3: This is Group B, Bosia, Herzegovina and Cutter are tied
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 3: in third and fourth, and the way this whole thing
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 3: works is that.
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 1: The top eight third place teams, So.
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 3: These teams cannot I don't believe that they can advance
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 3: into the top two teams here even with the win,
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 3: even though they have four points. I don't think they
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 3: could they could get into the top two in this
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 3: group because I don't think they have the tiebreakers because
• 1:57:53
  Speaker 3: the tiebreakers, the first tiebreaker is what did you do
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 3: against the teams that you're tied with. It's head to
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 3: head and leave these teams both they lose the tiebreaker
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 3: to one of these two teams.
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 1: At least both teams do so. Bosnia definitely does not
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 1: have the tiebreaker against Switzerland. I think they did. They
• 1:58:12
  Speaker 1: have a draw against Canada them I forget, Oh yeah
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 1: they did so, but then it would go to gold differential,
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 1: and that's the problem. Canada is going to win the
• 1:58:22
  Speaker 1: goal differential against Bosnia.
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 3: So Bosnia is not going to win the tiebreaker against
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 3: either one of those teams. They already lost it to Switzerland.
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 3: Cutter lost it to Canada, so they don't have the
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 3: tiebreaker against Canada. Their goal differential is also too low
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 3: I think at this point to really have a hope
• 1:58:39
  Speaker 3: of tying Switzerland, because I believe Cutter had a draw
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 3: against Switzerland, right, is that what they did? Yeah, they did,
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 3: so they're not gonna have the tiebreaker either.
• 1:58:49
  Speaker 1: So effectively, this is the third.
• 1:58:51
  Speaker 3: Place game for this group, and if one of these
• 1:58:54
  Speaker 3: teams wins, they might have enough points to be one
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 3: of the top eight third place teams.
• 1:58:59
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean. It's not sided yet.
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 3: So what I'm saying is both these teams are gonna
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 3: have motivation to win. So that's what these teams need
• 1:59:07
  Speaker 3: to do here. They both need to get a win.
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 3: They need to get three points, and if they do,
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 3: they might be able to be one of the top
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 3: eight third place teams and get into the knockout round.
• 1:59:17
  Speaker 3: And whoever loses this game, if if either team loses
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 3: this game, then.
• 1:59:21
  Speaker 1: They're definitely eliminated.
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 3: But yeah, so both teams actually have motivation here, Bosnia
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 3: probably gets it done.
• 1:59:27
  Speaker 1: They're the better team.
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 3: You can't really lay a price like that with them, though,
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't say, and I'm not really sure that they're
• 1:59:32
  Speaker 3: that good because the only reason they're in the World
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 3: Cup at all is because they upset Italy in the
• 1:59:39
  Speaker 3: final game that they had to win for World Cup
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 3: qualification in the tournament that lets you still qualify, and
• 1:59:45
  Speaker 3: they beat Italy on penalty shots.
• 1:59:48
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. Neither of these teams are that good.
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 1: We'll see.
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 3: I mean, in a game like this, where it's gonna
• 1:59:54
  Speaker 3: be highly competitive, you could maybe be thinking.
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 1: About an under you know what I mean.
• 2:00:00
  Speaker 3: It seems like defenses are probably gonna kind of step
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 3: it up and teams don't want to make any mistakes,
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 3: so you might see more of an understyle a game.
• 2:00:07
  Speaker 3: In a game like that, Switzerland and Canada, they're both
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 3: pretty much guaranteed to be in the knockout round. So
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 3: this gets a little bit interesting because the question is
• 2:00:17
  Speaker 3: do these teams care about actually being number one in
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 3: the group when you know that number one and two
• 2:00:22
  Speaker 3: both make the knockout round? Do you really care that
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 3: you win the group or not?
• 2:00:28
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. Yes, Kyle, correct, you're reading my
• 2:00:32
  Speaker 1: mind here.
• 2:00:33
  Speaker 3: So this could be a situation where you might want
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 3: to bet the draw because both teams might be okay
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 3: with getting a draw, because you know what that would
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 3: do is it would give them both five points.
• 2:00:43
  Speaker 1: Canada would win the group.
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 3: Maybe Switzerland is okay with that, but they'd both advance
• 2:00:48
  Speaker 3: and then neither of these other teams could catch them.
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 3: But here's the problem that I have with that. I
• 2:00:54
  Speaker 3: just told you that Canada and Switzerland are not gonna
• 2:00:57
  Speaker 3: lose the tiebreakers anyway, So I don't really think that
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 3: they're gonna do that, Like I think they're gonna try
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 3: to win the group. Actually, that would be my gauge
• 2:01:05
  Speaker 3: on this because they're not. They're not in danger of
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 3: missing the knockout round, you know what I mean. These
• 2:01:11
  Speaker 3: teams have effectively clinched. Like the tiebreaker, it's gonna go
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 3: to goal differential and it's.
• 2:01:16
  Speaker 1: Not gonna matter anymore, you know what I mean.
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 3: But but you're right, like you know the goal differential,
• 2:01:21
  Speaker 3: these teams would keep their goal differential, uh the same
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 3: if they both had a draw, you know what I mean.
• 2:01:27
  Speaker 3: So for that reason, you're right like maybe the drawing
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 3: makes some sense that both teams keep a positive goal
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 3: differential here, you know what I mean, so they might
• 2:01:35
  Speaker 3: want to do that. An under also could be worth
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 3: a look here for that reason. So maybe for multiple reasons,
• 2:01:41
  Speaker 3: because if both teams are gonna try to win, the
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 3: defenses might step up their game. But if both teams
• 2:01:45
  Speaker 3: are gonna try, are gonna kind of lay back here
• 2:01:48
  Speaker 3: and not really you know, not score as many goals
• 2:01:51
  Speaker 3: here or not really try to because they both want
• 2:01:53
  Speaker 3: to just keep the goal differential and go into the
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 3: knockout round.
• 2:01:57
  Speaker 1: This might be an under here.
• 2:01:59
  Speaker 3: I think I like that better than the draw though,
• 2:02:01
  Speaker 3: because the draw, I mean, you're looking at like plus
• 2:02:03
  Speaker 3: two hundred something on the draw. But of course some
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 3: crazy shit could just fuck that up. Canada is playing
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 3: in Vancouver, by the way. I think they're staying in Vancouver,
• 2:02:12
  Speaker 3: so I think Canada has a little bit of a
• 2:02:14
  Speaker 3: location edge here. Switzerland is favored though even though the
• 2:02:17
  Speaker 3: game is in Canada. Switzerland is plus one forty on
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 3: the three way line, so it's close. But the oddsmakers
• 2:02:24
  Speaker 3: are telling you if Switzerland is a slightly better team here.
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 3: Both teams are coming up blowout wins. I don't really
• 2:02:29
  Speaker 3: have a good read on the side here because I
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 3: think both teams really have a very similar remotivation here,
• 2:02:34
  Speaker 3: and they're both pretty close in the odds. So I
• 2:02:37
  Speaker 3: don't really have a read on the side here, you know,
• 2:02:40
  Speaker 3: other than yeah, I mean, I think the way that
• 2:02:43
  Speaker 3: I would probably play that game is the under. To
• 2:02:45
  Speaker 3: be honest, I think that might be the better approach
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 3: in that game, but I don't want to do it.
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 3: Both teams did put up a ton of goals, so
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 3: nobody's really going to want to play the under, right,
• 2:02:53
  Speaker 3: Like Switzerland had five goals or four goals or whatever.
• 2:02:56
  Speaker 1: In the last game.
• 2:02:57
  Speaker 3: Canada I think had six, So nobody's going to want
• 2:02:59
  Speaker 3: to pla under here, But the under might make sense.
• 2:03:03
  Speaker 1: Morocco and Haiti is in Atlanta. Haiti is gonna be coming.
• 2:03:07
  Speaker 3: In from playing in I think they were in Pennsylvania
• 2:03:11
  Speaker 3: or something like that, and Morocco is coming in from
• 2:03:14
  Speaker 3: playing in Foxboro Stadium in Massachusetts, so both teams coming
• 2:03:18
  Speaker 3: down from the northeast here. Morocco's a huge favorite at
• 2:03:21
  Speaker 3: minus five twenty five, Haiti is eliminated, so Haiti already
• 2:03:26
  Speaker 3: is done. They have no points, so they actually cannot
• 2:03:30
  Speaker 3: catch up because they lost to Scotland head to head.
• 2:03:33
  Speaker 3: So even if Scotland gets no more points and Haiti
• 2:03:35
  Speaker 3: somehow wins, which is not gonna happen. Even if Haiti
• 2:03:39
  Speaker 3: does that, they still lose the tiebreaker to Scotland. So
• 2:03:42
  Speaker 3: Haiti is already eliminated and they might be the worst team. Well,
• 2:03:46
  Speaker 3: I don't know if they're the worst team in this
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 3: whole thing. I think Curisyle probably is. Haiti is one
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 3: of the worst though, and they're already out. So Morocco
• 2:03:55
  Speaker 3: though Morocco could potentially win this group, which is crazy
• 2:03:59
  Speaker 3: to think about because they had a draw against Brazil.
• 2:04:02
  Speaker 3: They could actually beat Brazil in this group here, and
• 2:04:05
  Speaker 3: Morocco is in danger of falling into third place here,
• 2:04:09
  Speaker 3: which they don't want. So Morocco is definitely motivated to
• 2:04:12
  Speaker 3: try to win here because you know, they don't want
• 2:04:16
  Speaker 3: to fall into third. Although it seems like whoever comes
• 2:04:18
  Speaker 3: in third here in Group C is probably gonna get in,
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 3: like they're probably gonna be one of the top eight,
• 2:04:24
  Speaker 3: so we get to keep rooting for Scotland. Scotland might
• 2:04:28
  Speaker 3: come back up here to Foxboro and play again against Germany.
• 2:04:32
  Speaker 3: If everything kind of stays the same here, that is
• 2:04:34
  Speaker 3: what would happen.
• 2:04:36
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Morocco, I think they probably win this thing.
• 2:04:39
  Speaker 3: I don't really know if there's a way to really
• 2:04:41
  Speaker 3: approach this with a bet though, because Haiti actually might
• 2:04:45
  Speaker 3: show up, Because if you think about the mindset here,
• 2:04:47
  Speaker 3: it can go one of two ways. Like you're eliminated.
• 2:04:50
  Speaker 3: I talk about the dream crusher spot all the time.
• 2:04:54
  Speaker 3: A team that gets eliminated could be in the dream
• 2:04:56
  Speaker 3: crusher and maybe they just will be down on themselves
• 2:04:58
  Speaker 3: and they won't be motivated motivated anymore. The problem is
• 2:05:02
  Speaker 3: this is their last time they're playing in the World Cup,
• 2:05:04
  Speaker 3: so they might actually try to play well.
• 2:05:06
  Speaker 1: So that's the thing. I could see both things being
• 2:05:09
  Speaker 1: a factor here.
• 2:05:09
  Speaker 3: So I don't really know how to play on these
• 2:05:11
  Speaker 3: teams that are eliminated, Like are they gonna be sad
• 2:05:15
  Speaker 3: and not play well or are they gonna be highly
• 2:05:17
  Speaker 3: motivated because they know this is their last chance to
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 3: do something and play well and they get a chance
• 2:05:23
  Speaker 3: to play spoiler potentially, you know what I mean, Like
• 2:05:25
  Speaker 3: they might be like fuck it, let's try to spoil
• 2:05:28
  Speaker 3: this thing for Morocco and try to knock them, you know,
• 2:05:30
  Speaker 3: out of the knockout rounds or whatever, which I don't
• 2:05:32
  Speaker 3: think is gonna happen. I think Morocco and Scotland are
• 2:05:35
  Speaker 3: both gonna make it, but still so that gives me
• 2:05:38
  Speaker 3: some pause on that game. That game is really really
• 2:05:41
  Speaker 3: hard to figure out. Actually, I mean Morocco over their
• 2:05:45
  Speaker 3: team total, I guess is maybe an approach in the game.
• 2:05:48
  Speaker 1: Morocco is coming.
• 2:05:49
  Speaker 3: Off a low scoring win over Scotland, or their offense
• 2:05:53
  Speaker 3: didn't look that good. Morocco's not really a horrible team though,
• 2:05:57
  Speaker 3: and maybe they'll finally put up more goals because they've
• 2:05:59
  Speaker 3: only put.
• 2:05:59
  Speaker 1: Up one goal in each of their matches.
• 2:06:02
  Speaker 3: I know, I'm not looking at the expected goals here
• 2:06:04
  Speaker 3: this time, but they might be able to do something there.
• 2:06:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 2:06:08
  Speaker 3: I mean, is Morocco really playing well though it is?
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 3: Brazil just way overrated though Morocco. I don't know about
• 2:06:15
  Speaker 3: Morocco because they're their coach or manager left like two
• 2:06:20
  Speaker 3: months before the World Cup started. He left, which is
• 2:06:23
  Speaker 3: usually not a good sign. And some of Morocco's players
• 2:06:26
  Speaker 3: that they had in that run that they made, because
• 2:06:28
  Speaker 3: everybody remembers they made that run in the World Cup
• 2:06:30
  Speaker 3: to the semi finals last World Cup. Some of those
• 2:06:33
  Speaker 3: guys are not on that team anymore, so I don't know,
• 2:06:36
  Speaker 3: but this is a really easy matchup for them against Haiti.
• 2:06:40
  Speaker 3: Brazil is playing Scotland in Miami.
• 2:06:42
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 2:06:43
  Speaker 3: The Scots are all getting arrested in Miami, Dude, the Scotts.
• 2:06:48
  Speaker 3: They got to think the Boston is way better than
• 2:06:50
  Speaker 3: Miami here. The cops in Miami and whatever are taking
• 2:06:54
  Speaker 3: the cones off of the statues. We see it as
• 2:06:57
  Speaker 3: a sign of fun and respect up here. We appreciate
• 2:07:01
  Speaker 3: Scotland's Shenan against and Scotland had some guys get arrested
• 2:07:05
  Speaker 3: at the Marlins game yesterday for I don't even know what,
• 2:07:10
  Speaker 3: for being too loud. I have no idea, honestly, I
• 2:07:13
  Speaker 3: don't know. But Miami is not looking good here compared
• 2:07:17
  Speaker 3: to Boston here. But Scotland doesn't have a game to
• 2:07:20
  Speaker 3: play against Brazil here. Brazil, you know, I mean, they're
• 2:07:23
  Speaker 3: looking a little bit overrated here, man. I know, they
• 2:07:26
  Speaker 3: just beat Haiti, but Haiti sucks. Brazil is clearly better
• 2:07:30
  Speaker 3: than Scotland too, though Brazil's minus three ten on the
• 2:07:34
  Speaker 3: three way line here, Scotland is not that good but
• 2:07:37
  Speaker 3: you know, I mean, they've put up an okay effort here.
• 2:07:40
  Speaker 3: Scotland has actually been kind of good on the defensive side.
• 2:07:44
  Speaker 3: It looks like like I don't know, man, I mean,
• 2:07:45
  Speaker 3: they're getting into these low scoring games here. Maybe this
• 2:07:49
  Speaker 3: game could be closer to the people think. It all
• 2:07:52
  Speaker 3: kind of depends on whether you think Brazil is overrated
• 2:07:54
  Speaker 3: or not. But both teams are motivated. Brazil still trying
• 2:07:57
  Speaker 3: to win this group and they still could potentially drop
• 2:08:01
  Speaker 3: into third place here, so obviously they don't want that.
• 2:08:03
  Speaker 3: But I think they're gonna make the knockout round though.
• 2:08:06
  Speaker 3: Scotland looks like they're going to, although obviously it would
• 2:08:09
  Speaker 3: put them in if they were able to do something here.
• 2:08:11
  Speaker 3: If they're able to draw with Brazil, they're probably gonna
• 2:08:13
  Speaker 3: get in. If they get one point here, that would
• 2:08:16
  Speaker 3: probably seal it for Scotland to make the knockout round here.
• 2:08:19
  Speaker 1: So that is what they're gonna be going for here.
• 2:08:22
  Speaker 3: Both teams are gonna be motivated. It's a difficult game
• 2:08:25
  Speaker 3: to figure out. I don't really have a good read
• 2:08:27
  Speaker 3: on this game at all. Scotland, like I said, is
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 3: traveling in from Foxborough.
• 2:08:31
  Speaker 1: Brazil.
• 2:08:32
  Speaker 3: I forget where Brazil played their last game. That was
• 2:08:36
  Speaker 3: against Haiti. I think that was in Pennsylvania.
• 2:08:38
  Speaker 1: I think, is what I said.
• 2:08:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't get this straight bye, I have that
• 2:08:43
  Speaker 3: right Philadelphia.
• 2:08:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't have much on that game. The next
• 2:08:47
  Speaker 1: game is my one.
• 2:08:48
  Speaker 3: Soccer play of the day here as we hit the
• 2:08:51
  Speaker 3: two hour mark on the show, and I got to
• 2:08:53
  Speaker 3: get the show out because I talked about a noon
• 2:08:55
  Speaker 3: baseball game.
• 2:08:58
  Speaker 1: Although it's not one of my plays.
• 2:09:00
  Speaker 3: We are going to take the check Republic plus a
• 2:09:03
  Speaker 3: half run here at minus one fifteen, or you could
• 2:09:06
  Speaker 3: go to the double chance market and find a winner draw.
• 2:09:08
  Speaker 3: Hold on, let me see if the wind draw is
• 2:09:10
  Speaker 3: a better option here, because it's the same thing. It's
• 2:09:14
  Speaker 3: just a different market, you know what I mean. Like
• 2:09:15
  Speaker 3: a winner draw is the same thing as plus a
• 2:09:17
  Speaker 3: half goal. It's just a different market. So it depends
• 2:09:20
  Speaker 3: on where you find the better number. Let me just
• 2:09:22
  Speaker 3: look real quick here, because Action Network makes it more
• 2:09:25
  Speaker 3: easy to find the spread options that are out there
• 2:09:28
  Speaker 3: at every book than.
• 2:09:31
  Speaker 1: Then to find the double chance market.
• 2:09:34
  Speaker 3: Let me see here on the double chance we have,
• 2:09:39
  Speaker 3: I'm looking for check Republic.
• 2:09:42
  Speaker 1: It still says check Republic on draft or on DKA.
• 2:09:45
  Speaker 3: By the way, check Republic or ties at minus one twenty,
• 2:09:50
  Speaker 3: so it's actually a better price on the plus half goals,
• 2:09:54
  Speaker 3: So let's do it that way minus one fifteen. I
• 2:09:57
  Speaker 3: think that's also a DK number there. I like this,
• 2:10:01
  Speaker 3: So you might be saying, well, why they're playing Mexico
• 2:10:05
  Speaker 3: in Mexico. Mexico is the better team here, Mexico is favored.
• 2:10:10
  Speaker 3: It looks so easy to play Mexico here though, man
• 2:10:13
  Speaker 3: at a very very small three way price here, And
• 2:10:16
  Speaker 3: that's why I'm fading them here.
• 2:10:18
  Speaker 1: Well, the reason I'm.
• 2:10:19
  Speaker 3: Fading them is because Mexico has nothing to play for.
• 2:10:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, maybe they want to not look bad
• 2:10:24
  Speaker 3: in front of their home crowd or whatever, but they've
• 2:10:26
  Speaker 3: already played two games at home already. In Mexico, Mexico's
• 2:10:30
  Speaker 3: already clinched. They've already won their group. They're already number
• 2:10:33
  Speaker 3: one in Grubay. They can't lose it. They already beat
• 2:10:36
  Speaker 3: South Korea in their most recent match, so they already
• 2:10:39
  Speaker 3: have the head to head against South Korea, so they
• 2:10:41
  Speaker 3: can't lose the number one spot in this group. It's
• 2:10:45
  Speaker 3: already over for them. So Mexico has basically zero motivation here.
• 2:10:49
  Speaker 3: They've already clinched it, they're already moving on. Czech Republic
• 2:10:54
  Speaker 3: needs this game way more because they have one point
• 2:10:58
  Speaker 3: right now, a negative goal differentch. They need something here, man,
• 2:11:02
  Speaker 3: because they still have the chance to get ahead of
• 2:11:04
  Speaker 3: South Korea here, Man, especially if they get a win here.
• 2:11:08
  Speaker 3: They're trying to do that because the third place team
• 2:11:10
  Speaker 3: here does not have a good point total here, so
• 2:11:12
  Speaker 3: the third place team in this group might miss the
• 2:11:15
  Speaker 3: knockout round completely completely. So you really have to be
• 2:11:18
  Speaker 3: focusing on trying to win this game and take second in.
• 2:11:21
  Speaker 1: This group if you're the Czecher Republic here.
• 2:11:23
  Speaker 3: So you're gonna have a highly motivated Czech Republic team
• 2:11:26
  Speaker 3: here against a Mexico team that really shouldn't give a shit.
• 2:11:30
  Speaker 3: So this is a huge motivational disparity here. We're gonna
• 2:11:34
  Speaker 3: take the Czech Republic. They're also coming up an ugly
• 2:11:36
  Speaker 3: performance against South Africa, who's clearly the worst team here.
• 2:11:40
  Speaker 3: But look at how it happened, Man, Czech Republic was
• 2:11:42
  Speaker 3: winning this match and then South Africa scored on a
• 2:11:45
  Speaker 3: penalty goal at the eighty three minute mark. It's such bullshit, dude.
• 2:11:50
  Speaker 3: That's such a bullshit draw that South Africa polled. Although
• 2:11:53
  Speaker 3: if you look at what happened in this game, Hey Crachie,
• 2:11:56
  Speaker 3: somebody named Crachie on Czech Republic. Here's David Cragy, my
• 2:12:01
  Speaker 3: former bruin. Now, yes, I know, South Africa did actually
• 2:12:05
  Speaker 3: have the better expected goals here. They actually won the
• 2:12:08
  Speaker 3: possession battle. That worries me that Czech Republic played really poorly,
• 2:12:12
  Speaker 3: but Czech Republic did have more actual chances in the
• 2:12:15
  Speaker 3: game here. South Africa was going to lose the game, dude.
• 2:12:20
  Speaker 3: I mean they only won because they got lucky being
• 2:12:22
  Speaker 3: awarded a penalty goal there. So yeah, I think Czech
• 2:12:26
  Speaker 3: Republic Again, it's all about the motivation here though. Really yeah,
• 2:12:29
  Speaker 3: I gotta worry about gold differential a little bit, but whatever,
• 2:12:32
  Speaker 3: Mexico already clinched with that win over South Korea.
• 2:12:35
  Speaker 1: Mexico has not been scoring a lot, man. They only
• 2:12:37
  Speaker 1: put up two goals.
• 2:12:38
  Speaker 3: Against South Africa, won against Korea South Korea, and I
• 2:12:42
  Speaker 3: know that they haven't allowed a goal yet.
• 2:12:45
  Speaker 1: But again, they're not putting up a ton of goals here,
• 2:12:48
  Speaker 1: and as a favorite.
• 2:12:49
  Speaker 3: Here where they're gonna need to win by some sort
• 2:12:51
  Speaker 3: of margin here in a spot like this, Yeah, we're
• 2:12:54
  Speaker 3: gonna go with the Czech Republic. That's my final play
• 2:12:57
  Speaker 3: of the day there plus the half goal, or if
• 2:13:00
  Speaker 3: you find a better price on the double chance, which
• 2:13:02
  Speaker 3: is check Republic to win or draw, you could do
• 2:13:05
  Speaker 3: that as well. And then we have South Africa and
• 2:13:08
  Speaker 3: South Korea in Mexico. So actually Czech Republic, by the way,
• 2:13:13
  Speaker 3: they are actually traveling in from Atlanta, so they already
• 2:13:16
  Speaker 3: travel disadvantage there, I know, but I'm still gonna do
• 2:13:19
  Speaker 3: it because I just think the motivational spot is too
• 2:13:21
  Speaker 3: much to ignore there, so doing it anyway, even though yes,
• 2:13:26
  Speaker 3: they're traveling from Atlanta, Mexico is staying somewhere in Mexico,
• 2:13:29
  Speaker 3: South Korea is staying in Mexico here, and South Africa's
• 2:13:33
  Speaker 3: traveling in from Atlanta. And South Korea is the better team.
• 2:13:37
  Speaker 3: They're at minus one fifty five on the three away here,
• 2:13:39
  Speaker 3: which is not a huge price really though. But again,
• 2:13:45
  Speaker 3: you know, I took down the standings here, but South
• 2:13:48
  Speaker 3: Korea is in a similar spot to Czech Republic. They
• 2:13:51
  Speaker 3: really need to play well to try to get the
• 2:13:53
  Speaker 3: number two spot here in this group so that they
• 2:13:56
  Speaker 3: make sure to advance. So South Korea is obviously motivated here,
• 2:14:00
  Speaker 3: although actually, let me look, because I don't know if
• 2:14:02
  Speaker 3: South Africa eliminated. I don't think they are. Let me
• 2:14:04
  Speaker 3: say no, South Africa is tied with Czech Republic here
• 2:14:09
  Speaker 3: at one point, so South Africa they're not actually dead yet,
• 2:14:13
  Speaker 3: so South Africa is gonna be motivated here as well.
• 2:14:17
  Speaker 3: I expect South Korea probably to win because they are
• 2:14:20
  Speaker 3: the better team. But maybe people are overlooking South Africa
• 2:14:24
  Speaker 3: a little bit here, and South Africa they are coming
• 2:14:27
  Speaker 3: off that bullshit draw against the Czech Republic though. South
• 2:14:31
  Speaker 3: Korea is coming off also kind of a tough.
• 2:14:32
  Speaker 1: Match against Mexico though, But South Korea with the travel
• 2:14:36
  Speaker 1: spot and whatever, and you know, just the fact that
• 2:14:38
  Speaker 1: they lost rather than getting a bullshit draw in their
• 2:14:42
  Speaker 1: last match, South Korea probably sets up slightly better here,
• 2:14:46
  Speaker 1: so I'd probably lean that way.
• 2:14:48
  Speaker 3: That's gonna do it, man. The plays today are the
• 2:14:51
  Speaker 3: Cleveland Indians on the money line. But I said specify
• 2:14:54
  Speaker 3: only Baby must start because the White Socks are fucking
• 2:14:57
  Speaker 3: what they're starting pitching here. I think you're we're gonna
• 2:15:00
  Speaker 3: get Fetti's still pitching in the game, but he might
• 2:15:02
  Speaker 3: not start, So just pick Baby. Must start for Cleveland
• 2:15:06
  Speaker 3: money line and roll with whatever the White Sox are doing.
• 2:15:09
  Speaker 1: We're going with Cleveland.
• 2:15:10
  Speaker 3: We're going with the A's first five on the money
• 2:15:13
  Speaker 3: line NB A WNBA Minnesota minus the points.
• 2:15:17
  Speaker 1: I know you have to pay a little bit more
• 2:15:18
  Speaker 1: for that now nine or nine and a half.
• 2:15:20
  Speaker 3: They still should get it done, I would imagine, and
• 2:15:24
  Speaker 3: then World Cup check Republic plus the half run on
• 2:15:26
  Speaker 3: the spread or or do it on the the double
• 2:15:32
  Speaker 3: chance market, win or draw, depending on what the better
• 2:15:34
  Speaker 3: price is.
• 2:15:35
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it.
• 2:15:36
  Speaker 3: Learn it Tone on Twitter, Learn it Tone on Instagram, like,
• 2:15:39
  Speaker 3: subscribe to the channel here, you know, tell everybody about it.
• 2:15:43
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• 2:15:46
  Speaker 3: on audio listening over there. Helps me out Apple, Spotify,
• 2:15:49
  Speaker 3: Spreaker covered.
• 2:15:51
  Speaker 1: In you because my yuke channel on YouTube.
• 2:15:52
  Speaker 3: You can check that out Patreon dot com, slash learn
• 2:15:55
  Speaker 3: it tone if you want to support me that way.
• 2:15:57
  Speaker 1: The Loser Cast, we had an episode on Monday this week.
• 2:16:00
  Speaker 3: I don't know if the guys did another episode yesterday
• 2:16:02
  Speaker 3: or not, but we will have an.
• 2:16:03
  Speaker 1: Announcement about Layton's balls.
• 2:16:06
  Speaker 3: If you watch, go watch Monday show and you'll know
• 2:16:09
  Speaker 3: what I'm talking about. We're gonna keep you guys updated
• 2:16:11
  Speaker 3: on the on the state.
• 2:16:12
  Speaker 1: Of his balls.
• 2:16:14
  Speaker 3: So go take go go check that out from Monday
• 2:16:18
  Speaker 3: and then the New York Giants g Spot podcast.
• 2:16:20
  Speaker 1: I guess is still a thing. That's it for now.
• 2:16:24
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 2:16:25
  Speaker 1: Let's have a winning day today. That's the goal. Obviously,
• 2:16:28
  Speaker 1: let's get it done.
• 2:16:29
  Speaker 3: I think we have to go three and one to
• 2:16:30
  Speaker 3: do that though, so you know, based on the prices
• 2:16:33
  Speaker 3: and whatever. Yeah, I think we're paying a little bit
• 2:16:35
  Speaker 3: of a negative money line on all of them, so
• 2:16:38
  Speaker 3: I think we do have to go three and one
• 2:16:39
  Speaker 3: for it to be a win. I mean, if it's
• 2:16:41
  Speaker 3: a tow two day and a slight loss, I'm not
• 2:16:43
  Speaker 3: gonna be totally beat up over it. But let's try
• 2:16:45
  Speaker 3: to get the win. That's what we're trying to do here.
• 2:16:48
  Speaker 3: Thanks everybody. I appreciate it, everybody. Gerald that's right.
• 2:16:52
  Speaker 1: Peace everybody. But don't you go quiet. Don't you play
• 2:16:57
  Speaker 1: it from the flow.
• 2:16:59
  Speaker 2: Your name still tell me something new, somebody for show
• 2:17:02
  Speaker 2: to put the glass down?
• 2:17:04
  Speaker 1: Baby, look at me, nic.
• 2:17:11
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on nothing nice, now, hold on, hold on.
• 2:17:23
  Speaker 2: Let me pull you that b bites hord. But it
• 2:17:32
  Speaker 2: don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on and stay
• 2:17:39
  Speaker 2: with me now