Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 24 - 4/16/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 24 - 4/16/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode 24 of the All
0:23
Systems Go Sports Bedding Podcast, powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum.
0:32
What's going on everyone? Happy
0:34
Tuesday, another day here in the arena guys and we
0:38
have today the beginning of the NBA playoffs. That's
0:41
right, maybe not officially, I guess it is officially
0:44
the playoffs, but we got the play in game starting
0:46
today. So we have two of them today,
0:48
two of them tomorrow. I have a bet for you, which
0:51
is a very interesting Fade the Trendy Dog kind of
0:54
line free sharp opportunity here. So
0:56
I'm going to share that with you here for tonight
0:57
as well as right back to the diamond, four MLB
1:00
sweats for you. So a five pack of games here
1:03
overall excited to share them all with you on
1:05
episode 24 of the All Systems Go Pod. Now
1:09
looking toward yesterday, unfortunately could not
1:11
start our week off on a winning note, 2 -4 minus 2
1:14
.5 units. We had a couple wins with the
1:16
Royals and the Mets. Mets came back down 3 -0, came
1:19
back to win that one, but it really hurt. Losses
1:22
here with the Brewers. They jumped out to an early 3
1:25
-0 lead and they blew it. The
1:27
Rays really hurt because they were up 1 -0. I
1:29
believe going into the 8th inning and then their
1:31
bullpen completely imploded. The
1:33
Tigers completely went totally cold, silent, their
1:37
bats lost a 1 -0 game to the Rangers and then the
1:40
Kings didn't even show up. Lost
1:42
3 -1 in the NHL. So rough start to the week
1:45
guys, but as always, do we get up? Do
1:47
we get down? No, we stay the course. Even
1:49
Keel, flat betting, bet first versus bet to win.
1:52
If you've been in the betting
1:53
game long enough, you know there are hot days, cold
1:55
days, days that are somewhere in between and
1:58
something that someone told me a long time ago is
2:00
when you're struggling and you're not getting the
2:02
results that you want. When you're ice cold, you're not
2:04
as bad as you think, but also when you're red hot
2:06
and everything's going your way, you're not as good as
2:09
you think. You're always somewhere in the
2:10
middle. So let's see if we can bounce
2:11
back today with a big Tuesday with a 5 -pack here
2:14
of 4 MLB bets and 1 NBA playoff bet. So
2:18
without further ado, I want to mix things up. Usually
2:20
we start off with baseball, but I want to start off
2:22
with the NBA because the NBA tonight as I mentioned
2:25
is the return of the postseason and there's one
2:27
game in particular that caught my eye because it
2:29
is basically a blueprint play for me. And
2:32
I want to go to the early game here, 7 .30pm Eastern
2:35
time on TNT, Lakers visiting the Pelicans. This
2:39
is the play -in game in the West, the 7th place
2:41
team versus the 8th place team. And
2:43
currently we have the Pelicans listed as about a
2:46
1 point or some shops 1 .5 point home favorite. That's
2:50
what we've seen across the board for this one. This
2:52
one's intriguing to me, first off, because the
2:54
Pelicans are favorite. You would think or at least
2:57
assume the Lakers, obviously LeBron, Powerhouse, very
3:01
famous franchise obviously, as well as playing very
3:05
good down the stretch. I think they won 11 of their
3:07
last 14 games to get into the situation at one point.
3:09
We were questioning if they
3:11
would even make the play -in and obviously they were
3:13
able to do that. But it's notable to me that
3:16
the Lakers are not favorite. This
3:17
is the Pelicans favorite. The
3:19
Pelicans are minus 1 or minus 1 .5 at home. So
3:22
that part is fishy to me that the Lakers are a dog
3:24
and then the second part of this game that's really
3:26
fishy to me is that the Lakers are a huge public
3:28
play. This is a 7 .30 game as I
3:30
mentioned, TNT. Everybody's going to be watching this
3:32
one extremely heavily bet. There's
3:34
only two games tonight but they're all one at a time.
3:36
So 7 .30 is Lakers Pelicans,
3:39
10 o 'clock is Warriors Kings. So
3:41
extremely heavily bet game and the public is on the
3:43
trendy dog Lakers. The public 73 % of spread bets
3:48
here are going with the Lakers and the points. But
3:50
if you flip it and say Lakers and the points,
3:52
doesn't look too good to be true. How
3:53
do you not back LeBron in a quote unquote must win
3:56
game? I'll get to that in a second
3:57
because it's actually not a must win game. Even
3:59
though a lot of people are saying that. But
4:00
the Lakers, how do you not take them plus the points
4:02
here with LeBron? Anthony Davis, they won the title
4:05
a few years ago in the COVID year. However,
4:08
what's notable to me is that if you look at the
4:10
market and again, as a day to remember better, you
4:13
trust the market. Will it get every game right?
4:15
Of course not. Betting's
4:16
hard, tough to predict. But over the long haul, the
4:19
betting market's going to get it right more often
4:20
than it gets it wrong. And what's notable to me is
4:23
that when you look at the betting market and how it's
4:25
treated this game, we've pretty much always been a
4:29
favorite here for the Pelicans. I
4:30
mean, I even saw one shop that I believe opened, I
4:33
want to say minus one Lakers, then flipped very
4:35
quickly to Pelicans minus one. But
4:37
pretty much all the numbers here that were Pelicans
4:40
minus one have stayed Pelicans minus one or one
4:43
and a half. Some books even at one point, I
4:45
thought I saw a Pelicans minus two. It's
4:47
back down to one and a half or one. But
4:49
the whole point being here is that we are looking at
4:51
a line freeze. A line freeze is when you
4:53
have heavy, heavy betting one side, but the line
4:55
really won't move at all. So
4:57
let me ask you this. If 73 % of bets in a very
5:00
heavily bet playoff game here are going with Lakers,
5:03
why isn't this line flipped back to Bakers? The
5:06
Lakers minus one, minus one and a half. The
5:08
fact that it's remaining Pelicans as a short
5:11
favorite, it almost feels like the odds makers are
5:13
begging you to come take the Lakers. Like
5:15
they're just teasing you. Hey,
5:16
you want a point, point and a half? Oh,
5:17
here, come on, come on, take the Lakers. Looks
5:20
too good to be true, feels fishy. I
5:21
want to embrace this fishy side on the Pelicans
5:23
because this looks like, as I mentioned, a sharp line
5:25
freeze. If everyone's betting Lakers,
5:27
why have the Pelicans remained a favorite pretty
5:29
much this entire time? Even again, touch as high as
5:32
one and a half or two, you're pretty much one, one
5:34
and a half across the board. So
5:35
just from a contrarian standpoint of betting
5:38
against the public in these heavily bet primetime games
5:40
nationally televised, you're only getting 27 % of bets
5:43
on Pelicans. So I want to back this
5:45
contrarian side. But then again, we always
5:47
mention it, contrarian is a starting point. I
5:50
kind of make this analogy a little bit where if you
5:52
want to get in better shape and I'm not one to
5:54
speak, I'm not in very good shape. But
5:56
I know how to get in good shape, you got to eat
5:58
right and you got to work out. So
6:00
to me, when you're eating right, basically that's your
6:02
contrarian, your contrarian foundation of eating right,
6:05
getting healthier. But if you're only eating right
6:07
and you're sitting on your couch and never working
6:09
out, yeah, you're going to be eating better, but
6:11
you're not going to see the results you want to
6:13
get in better shape. So you got to combine the
6:15
eating right with the working out. And
6:17
the analogy here, I know it's maybe rolling your
6:19
eyes like, what the heck are you talking about,
6:20
Josh? But eating right is contrarian,
6:22
working out is the sharp action. So
6:24
the sharp action here is the line freeze or reverse
6:27
line move, the fact that everyone's betting Lakers,
6:29
but Linus stayed the same or move in favor of the
6:32
Pelicans. Also, I think it's a by low
6:34
spot on the Pelicans, the Pelicans and Lakers,
6:36
ironically, they played each other in the regular season
6:38
finale for both teams, just a couple days ago and
6:41
Lakers won 124 to 108. So I think it's kind of a by
6:44
low on Pelicans at home, also recency bias, where
6:47
the public says, hey, didn't these teams just
6:49
play each other and the Lakers rolled? Now
6:51
they're getting a point point and a half. Boom,
6:53
I'll take that all day. So it's kind of a revenge
6:55
spot, a by low opportunity. If
6:57
you dig deeper into the numbers, you know, the
6:59
Pelicans are the better team. They
7:01
have a slightly better record 49 and 33 versus 47
7:04
and 35. They have home court, of course.
7:07
But if you look at the
7:07
advanced metrics here from ESPN Hollinger, offensive
7:11
efficiency, New Orleans is eighth, the Lakers are
7:13
15th, defensive efficiency, New Orleans is seventh, the
7:17
Lakers are 17th. So both top 10 offense defense
7:21
for New Orleans, you know, 15th, 17th, kind of here
7:24
in the middle of the pack for the Lakers. Now,
7:27
I wanted to address this must win sort of thing
7:29
because I was reading about it. And
7:31
obviously, you know, the play in tournaments, it's a
7:33
relatively new thing. It's been going on a few years
7:35
at this point, but you still kind of got to wrap
7:37
your head around the implications and what it
7:38
means and do you have to win? What
7:40
happens if you win? What happens if you lose? A
7:42
lot of people think it's one and done, you lose,
7:44
you're done. But no, if you look at this
7:45
game in particular, the winner of this game is
7:49
going to play the Denver Nuggets. I
7:51
hope I got this right. I think I do. The
7:53
loser of this game will play on Friday and they'll
7:56
play the winner. I don't know if it's Friday
7:57
or maybe it's before, but the loser will play the
8:00
winner of the Warriors and the Kings. So
8:02
let me ask you this. If you're the Lakers, do you
8:05
want to win this game and then go right ahead and
8:07
play the Nuggets? Or would you rather play the
8:10
Warriors Kings? I would rather play the
8:12
Warriors or the Kings versus the Nuggets. So
8:14
I'm not saying the Lakers are trying to lose this
8:16
game. It's just that if they do lose,
8:18
their season's not over, they play again. And
8:20
if they win that game, which I believe they'll be
8:22
at home for, then they'll get the winner of, again,
8:26
Warriors Kings. So do you want to avoid the
8:29
Nuggets? I think you do. That
8:30
would be kind of the, probably the best way to
8:32
go about it here if you're the Lakers. Now,
8:35
one other angle here is kind of the injury reports
8:38
for both these teams. The Pelicans, they're fully
8:40
healthy. They don't have a single guy in
8:41
the injury report. They actually even got Brandon
8:43
Ingram back. So Brandon Ingram was out for
8:46
quite a while. He played in the last game.
8:48
So we had one game under his
8:49
belt. He's good to go. And
8:50
the Lakers have a long injury report. I
8:52
mean, Anthony Davis will play. He
8:53
is questionable. However, they are going to miss a
8:56
couple big guys or at least one big guy in
8:58
Christian Wood and then Jared Vanderbilt. So
9:01
we have Pelicans who are contrarian, who have a line
9:04
freeze or reverse line move. They're
9:06
unpopular, yet they're favored. We
9:08
have a faith of trendy dog like you read about. Better
9:11
offensive, defensive efficiency. And
9:13
again, Lakers can lose and still win on Friday and be
9:15
in the postseason. So long story short, guys,
9:17
everywhere I'm looking, it's Lakers, Lakers, Lakers. I
9:20
don't really watch a ton of ESPN in the morning. A
9:23
lot of my coverage is mostly Boston sports. I
9:26
don't really love the national coverage, but I
9:28
did turn on some ESPN and it's just Lakers, Lakers,
9:31
LeBron, LeBron, Lakers, LeBron, Lakers, LeBron. So
9:34
just as a contrarian, better, I want to bet
9:35
against that recency bias that overall bias, that
9:39
confirmation bias, and I want to take the Pelicans
9:41
here. So here's your last question.
9:43
Do you go Pelicans minus one?
9:45
Do you go Pelicans minus one
9:46
and a half? I'm going to go Moneyline here.
9:49
Off chance. And
9:49
again, odds maker set this one pretty much a one
9:51
point game. So if they're right and it's
9:53
Pelicans by one, I want to win my bet, not push my
9:56
bet. So I'm going Moneyline here.
9:58
I'm on the Pelicans to win the
10:00
damn game. I'm on Pelicans at minus 115.
10:04
Keep on cruising. Now
10:06
over to some major league baseball. First
10:08
game on the board for me, guys. I'm
10:09
going to call this a value play, maybe not a sharp
10:12
play. It's got a little bit of line
10:13
movement, but more of a value bet here on a much
10:16
better offense and a team that's at home and a team
10:18
that won last night. So I'm talking about Minnesota
10:21
Baltimore. Give me the O's, baby. I'm
10:23
on Baltimore here. Shot round. I
10:25
got Baltimore at minus 160. Orioles
10:27
at home opening up against Minnesota. We
10:29
have Paddock on the bump for the Twins. By
10:33
the way, you did see, as I hinted at earlier,
10:35
Baltimore 17 -4 against Minnesota in the opener
10:38
yesterday. But Paddock, who was actually
10:41
pretty good one year, I think with the Padres, 0
10:44
-0, 4 .15 ERA. He'll be opposed by Grayson
10:47
Rodriguez, the young Stud Righty for the Orioles
10:51
here. Orioles have all these great
10:52
position players. This is one of their high draft
10:54
picks. That's a pitcher. But
10:55
Rodriguez is starting to put it together. 2 -0, 2
10:58
.50 ERA. The Orioles are 3 -0 in his
11:02
three starts. He's given up two earned runs
11:04
or less in all three games. So
11:06
hopefully an advantage there with Rodriguez at home. Now
11:08
the line movement, a little bit toward Baltimore.
11:10
Nothing crazy, but some shops are
11:12
around minus 150, minus 155 up to minus 160. I
11:16
see a couple of shops that are minus 165. So
11:19
it's either stayed the same or moved a little bit here
11:20
toward Baltimore. Like I'll give you an example.
11:23
I kind of like Baltimore
11:24
yesterday. I'm like, man, how do I not
11:26
play Baltimore against Minnesota? Minnesota's
11:28
banged up. By the way, Carlos Correa is
11:29
hurt. But Baltimore opened minus 145.
11:32
They fell to like minus 135. I
11:34
say, and I can't play Baltimore yesterday. The
11:36
line's going away from them. If
11:37
anything, it looked like Minnesota was a little
11:38
sharp. But today, at least they have
11:40
a little movement in their direction. At
11:42
least the same or in their direction versus yesterday,
11:44
the line fell away from them. But
11:46
anyway, guys, aside from this little bit of line
11:48
movement here, I'm going to put a lot of stock into a
11:50
couple other factors. 1, the offense. Hanted
11:53
at this, but the Orioles lineup is awesome. They're
11:56
hitting 250 as a team. You look at Minnesota, they're
11:59
only hitting a buck 94. The
12:01
Orioles have scored 89 runs this year. The
12:04
Twins have only scored 53 runs. The
12:06
O's have hit 24 home runs, only 15 for Minnesota. And
12:09
again, Correa is banged up. So
12:11
you're missing arguably your best player. Run
12:13
differential plus 17 Baltimore minus 10 for
12:16
Minnesota. And the cherry on top here is
12:19
a non -division favorite. So lack of familiarity
12:21
benefiting quote unquote the better team. So
12:24
again, a little bit of line movement, much better
12:26
bats. Hopefully an advantage on the bump
12:27
here. I'm going Baltimore on the
12:29
money line. Give me the O's at minus 160.
12:34
Keep on cruising. This
12:35
one is fishy. I'm hoping it comes through for
12:37
us. Yankees Toronto going with the J's
12:40
here, guys. So this one jumped out to me
12:42
for a few reasons. First one, look at the line
12:46
movement. So let's actually take a step
12:47
back here. The Toronto Blue Jays won
12:50
yesterday. And they actually did have some
12:53
sharp movement yesterday because I want to say
12:54
Toronto was, they hovered around minus 110, minus
12:57
115, but public was New York. Sharp
13:00
play came through. Toronto won the game. We
13:01
played Toronto. Nice hit for you yesterday. But
13:04
anyway, Toronto won 3 -1 yesterday. But
13:07
if you look at currently the pitching match up here,
13:10
Carlos Rodan, couple lefties. Rodan's
13:12
going for the Yankees. He is 1 -0, 2 .87 ERA. You
13:16
say Kachuki going for the J's 0 -1, 2 .30 ERA. But
13:21
the thing that jumps out to me here is a huge dog
13:23
to fave line move. We actually opened this game
13:25
with the Yankees as a favorite. Yankees
13:28
opened minus 115, minus 120 on the road. It's
13:31
now flipped to Toronto minus 115, minus 120 at
13:35
home. So the other notable thing
13:37
there is that the public's all over Yankees. And
13:39
I get it. Yankees are a good team. They
13:41
have one of the best records in baseball, if not
13:43
the best. And what are they? 12
13:44
-5 now. Blue Jays are 9 -8. But
13:47
Yankees lost last night. This
13:48
is almost the gamblers' fallacy. They
13:50
have to win and bounce back today. They
13:51
do. However, 78 % of bets are going
13:55
Yankees, but line is going to the J's. So
13:58
that tells us smart money is going with the Blue
13:59
Jays here, only getting 22 % of bets, but a little
14:02
more than 30 % of the money. So
14:04
tiny low bets, higher dollar bets, but. Now
14:06
I was playing around with my systems here. Sweet
14:08
spot, short favorites. If you're a favorite of minus
14:11
130 or less, those teams are 62 and 44 this year,
14:15
59 % with an 8 % ROI. Kuchuki
14:18
actually did go up against the Bronx bombers. This
14:22
was April 5th, so about 10 days ago, couple of starts
14:25
ago. And the Jays won that game, 3
14:27
-0. Kuchuki went 5 .1 innings, gave up
14:29
no runs. Now, Toronto is also 5 -2 at
14:32
home this year. And they're 6 -2 as a favorite.
14:35
And I would keep an eye out
14:36
here for the total. Actually,
14:38
it's moving as we speak. I wrote about this in the
14:40
sharp report for vson .com, but the total was 8 .5.
14:42
Juiced up under. Well,
14:44
now it's fallen to 8. So if you like the under,
14:46
really, you've got to get that 8 .5 before it falls.
14:47
But either way, guys, I'm going
14:49
to trust the market here. It's
14:50
kind of a gambler's fallacy. Yankees
14:51
got to bounce back and win today. But
14:53
no, this line's going toward Toronto, even though
14:56
Yankees are a public bet. So
14:57
I'm on the Toronto Blue Jays. I
14:59
got the Jays at minus 115. Couple
15:02
more bets for you to end the pod here. An
15:04
8 -broke don't fix it play, the Kansas City Royals. I'm
15:07
going right back to the well with the Royals. And
15:10
we talked about yesterday's game, where we were betting
15:13
against a pitcher making his MLB debut. He
15:16
didn't pitch bad. It was Nestrini, Nick Mastrini.
15:21
But the Kansas City Royals did
15:22
get a win for us 2 -0. Well,
15:23
luckily, we got another guy tonight for the White Sox.
15:26
He's making his MLB debut. And
15:27
I want to bet against him also. So
15:30
taking a step back here, pitching a match up
15:32
tonight. We have Brady Singer going for
15:34
KC, who's been great. Knock on wood 2 -0, 0 .98 ERA.
15:38
He's going to go up against
15:39
Jonathan Cannon, the aforementioned rightie who
15:41
is making his MLB debut. Now,
15:44
this is kind of just a blueprint, sharp steam move
15:46
toward the Kansas City Royals. The
15:48
Royals opened around a minus 175 road favorite.
15:51
They've been bet up to minus 185.
15:53
Now I got them at minus 180.
15:55
I'm looking now. They're
15:56
close to minus 190. I see a minus getting closer
15:59
to a minus 200. So this line continues to grow
16:01
in favor of KC. So hopefully you followed my
16:03
Twitter earlier at Josh underscore insights. Jumped
16:06
on this one, hopefully at a better price. If
16:07
not, at least try to shop around and get something
16:10
sub 200. Like I do see a couple of
16:12
shops right now that are around my lowest number I
16:14
see is a minus 184. But I see some books, again,
16:16
closer to minus 200. Once again, PSA, have those
16:20
multiple outs, be able to shop for the best number.
16:22
Because especially in baseball,
16:24
moneyline sport, it can really increase your payouts
16:26
on winners and decrease your kind of help you,
16:31
basically getting better numbers that really may not
16:34
make a big difference theoretically like today or
16:36
tomorrow. But over the course of hundreds
16:38
and hundreds of bets over the course of a season,
16:41
that extra 5 cents here, 10 cents there, that could
16:43
be literally multiple units at the end of the day. So
16:46
anyway, try to get KC below minus 200, but we
16:49
have a good sharp steam move on Kansas City. We
16:52
also look at the bats on the Royals. They're
16:54
hitting 245 versus only 196 for the White Sox. Royals
16:59
have scored 87 runs versus only 34 for the White Sox.
17:03
Kansas City also has the better
17:04
pitching staff, 2 .86 ERA versus 4 .78 for the White
17:09
Sox. Now, road favorites, this has
17:10
been a good angle here. Road
17:11
favorites, and Major League Baseball, are 54 and 27,
17:15
excuse me, 67%, 17 % ROI. Royals
17:20
are 9 and 2 over their last 11 games. White
17:22
Sox just 1 and 10 over their last 11. KC
17:25
is a perfect 5 and 0 against Chicago this year.
17:28
Royals are 5 and 1 as a
17:30
favorite. And then also, this was an
17:32
under here, 8 .5 down to 8. Tells
17:35
me some smart money hit that hook on the under 8
17:37
.5 as soon as it opened. But
17:39
I'm going Kansas City here, guys. Again,
17:41
shop around, I got a minus 180 earlier today. Now
17:43
you're around minus 190 at this point. Then
17:45
last bet of the night, a good team at a pretty
17:48
short price. Let's go right to Atlanta,
17:51
Houston. Now I'm going with Atlanta
17:52
here, guys. Give me the Braves. On
17:54
the road at the Houston Astros, we did see the
17:56
Braves last night when the opener, they won the opener
17:59
6 -1 as a minus 120 road favorite. And
18:02
you're pretty much the same price here tonight. So
18:04
this game is going to be a pitching matchup between
18:07
Reynaldo Lopez 1 and 0. 0 .75 ERA has been great to
18:11
start the year for the Braves. The
18:13
Astros are going with Hunter Brown 0 -2, 16 .43
18:17
ERA. We'll get to these pitchers here
18:19
in a second because hopefully it's a big
18:20
advantage for Atlanta. But we've seen this line move
18:23
toward Atlanta. Atlanta opened around minus 115.
18:25
They've been bet up to minus 120.
18:26
Nothing crazy, but about a 5 cents
18:28
steam move in favor of the Braves. Now
18:30
the Braves are getting 78 % of bets, 85 % of the
18:33
money. So a little bit of low bets,
18:35
higher dollars in their favor. Now
18:37
the Braves have the better bets, hitting 301 versus
18:40
273 for the Astros. Better team ERA, 4 .64 versus 5
18:45
.34 or 5 .35. Interleague favorites off a win like
18:50
Atlanta here, 16 and 12, 57 % this year, 239 and
18:54
148, 62 % since the start of last season. And
18:58
then that same road favorites, just classic road
19:00
favorite there, 67 % this year. And
19:03
then digging into these pitchers, Lopez, as we
19:05
mentioned earlier, great ERA 0 .75. He's
19:08
only given up one run in 12 innings so far this
19:10
year. On the other hand, Hunter
19:12
Brown got absolutely rocked his last start. He's
19:15
given up 14 runs in his last two starts. He
19:17
just gave up nine runs and a 13 to 3 loss to the
19:20
Royals. And then classic run
19:22
differential, Atlanta plus 24, Houston minus 18. So
19:25
Astros, they got a lot of great players. They're
19:27
great pedigree. I'm sure at some point they'll
19:30
turn it around. Hopefully not tonight because I'm
19:33
going Braves here at a decently short price. Shop
19:36
around, I got Atlanta at minus 115. So
19:39
Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, Atlanta Braves and
19:42
the Baltimore Orioles and hopefully a trendy dog
19:45
Lakers to get taken to the woodshed. Let's
19:47
go Pelicans on the money line as well. So
19:51
how about does it for episode 24 of the All
19:53
Systems Go Sports betting podcast? But
19:55
reminder, I need your help to grow the All Systems Go
19:58
pod. And there's one thing you can
20:00
do to help me to grow the pod, which would be to
20:02
give this podcast a five star review on Spotify or
20:06
iTunes. If it gives you the option to
20:08
leave a review, that'll be even better. But
20:10
hopefully this pod, I know in a bit of a rough
20:13
stretch here recently, but hey, that happens in sports
20:16
betting. You can't get down. You
20:17
got to keep that forest amongst the trees, marathon,
20:19
not a sprint attitude. But as the pod helped you to
20:22
become a sharper better, a more informed better. You
20:24
feel like you're digging into line movement. And
20:26
you're not just betting games because, oh, I like
20:28
this team. I think they'll win, but you
20:29
have a reason for it. You're
20:30
learning how to read the market, steam moves, reverse
20:33
line moves, betting splits, bets and dollars, system
20:36
matches. You're a flat better now. You're
20:38
kind of disciplined with your bankroll management,
20:40
which you weren't before. If
20:41
the pod has helped you at all along in your sports
20:43
betting journey to become a sharper better, then please
20:46
give this pod a five star review on Spotify or
20:49
iTunes, as I mentioned. And then also, I would love
20:51
for you guys to buy my book, Pick Up a Copy of
20:54
the Everything Guide to Sports Betting. You
20:56
can get it at Barnes & Noble. What
20:57
even easier is just go to Amazon .com, type it right
20:59
in. The Everything Guide to Sports
21:01
Betting, Pick Up a Copy for you or for a friend.
21:03
Let's get everything I've learned
21:04
in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
21:07
they move, how to read line movement, how to
21:09
locate sharp action, how to place a bed in person or
21:11
online, how to shop for the best line, how to set
21:14
up a bankroll management plan, all included in my
21:16
book, The Everything Guide to Sports Betting. So
21:18
pick one up. It would make my day and I
21:20
will buy you a beer and sign it for you when I
21:22
see you at the book. And then of course, lastly,
21:25
have you heard about Rhythm? I
21:26
hope you have. I hope I've been doing my
21:28
part to tell you about Rhythm. But
21:29
Rhythm is the ultimate AI sports betting app for data
21:32
back picks and props, AI, which is artificial
21:35
intelligence. So we're getting real deep in
21:38
the AI game here with our data driven models from
21:40
Rhythm. But Rhythm powers this podcast.
21:43
I've met the Rhythm team, James
21:44
Santor, Meagan, the whole team. They're
21:46
fantastic. And they're really onto
21:48
something here, all of these data driven AI
21:50
backpicks. So for both games and props,
21:53
as well as just adding golf, which is huge. They
21:57
have NFL. I know they're working on
21:58
baseball and all the other sports. But
22:00
again, Rhythm is a basically a it was founded
22:03
in 20 2022 from a team of mathematical quants, data
22:07
scientists and machine learning engineers went to
22:10
MIT. So pretty much you tell me go
22:12
to MIT, I'm going to believe in you because you
22:15
got to be real smart to get in. And
22:16
usually people who graduate from MIT, they pretty much
22:19
rule the world. But anyway, guys, sign up for
22:21
Rhythm. There's a specific way I want you
22:23
to give Rhythm a shot. Sign
22:24
up for a seven day free trial. Just
22:26
go to my Twitter page, give me a follow at Josh
22:29
underscore insights. There's going to be a pinned tweet
22:31
at the top of my page. Click
22:33
that custom link for Rhythm. It'll
22:35
get you that seven day free trial. You
22:36
can test it out. See if you like it. Also,
22:38
you can sign up with the bio or description within
22:42
this podcast and the listing on Spotify. And
22:45
you can also find the link to sign up for Rhythm on
22:48
the All Systems Go Twitter page at underscore ASG
22:51
underscore podcast. But that about does it,
22:54
everyone. Of course, whether I see you
22:56
at the Borgata in Atlantic City to En River, En Rhode
22:58
Island, the Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
23:00
Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore
23:03
in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM
23:05
Springfield, the My Neck of the Woods or out in the
23:07
desert where the true grinders get down where
23:09
Billy Walter sends his number runners with lowest
23:11
juice possible is found at the South Point or Sweat
23:14
and Sharp Contrarian Plays at Circa, getting a victory
23:16
burger at the end of the night, jumping in the pool
23:18
at Stadium Swim when you cash your bet, hopefully
23:20
wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me.
23:24
And I know it was a down
23:25
night, but hey, we got the Royals. We
23:27
got the Mets. Clashby one of those first ones on
23:30
me. Next ones on you. We're
23:31
going to post about the books what Sharp Contrarian
23:32
plays all night long. So wish the best luck,
23:35
everyone. Keep grinding. And
23:37
my parting words to leave you with are always this.
23:40
Stay sharp. Stay
23:41
contrarian. Bet against the public. Place
23:43
yourself on the side of the house. Always
23:45
be with the smart money. Never
23:46
against it. Well, smart money won every time.
23:49
Of course not. But
23:49
we are always playing that long game. There's
23:51
ups and downs along the way. Got
23:53
to stick with it. Sports betting, if you haven't
23:55
realized yet, you got to have thick skin because it
23:57
is challenging. It's not easy to win. It's
24:00
hard. But again, when you're
24:02
struggling, you kind of see that perspective of, hey,
24:06
you're never as bad as you think. But
24:08
when you're hot, you also see the perspective of,
24:10
hey, never as good as I think. You're
24:11
always somewhere in between, as I mentioned before. So
24:13
let's see if we can bounce back today with a win,
24:15
guys. But I wish you the best of
24:16
luck. Stay sharp. Stay
24:17
contrarian. Bet against the public. Place
24:19
yourself on the side of the house. Always
24:20
be with the smart money. Never
24:21
against it. If we can do that, find games
24:23
that fit our model against the public with the house,
24:26
with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get some
24:28
CLV, closing line value. If we can do that, we're
24:31
going to be AOK. So let's have a winning night,
24:33
everyone. Enjoy the sweats. I'll
24:35
see you guys tomorrow for a big Wednesday on episode
24:37
25 of the All Systems Go Sports betting podcast. Good
24:41
luck.