Latest / Decision Desk HQ Podcast / Episode 2: Virginia's Volatile 2025 Election with Kyle Kondik

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Episode 2: Virginia's Volatile 2025 Election with Kyle Kondik · Decision Desk HQ Podcast

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  SPEAKER_01: The last four times in Virginia,
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  SPEAKER_01: the statewide,
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  SPEAKER_01: the three statewide elected offices all voted for the same party.
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  SPEAKER_01: There's been a habit of the president's party losing ground.
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  Here we have a great test because you have this really horrible story for,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: for Jay Jones,
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  SPEAKER_01: a Democratic candidate.
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  These are things that could get some Republicans who maybe were a little
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  propensity
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  SPEAKER_00: voters a bit more engaged than they would have been otherwise.
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  SPEAKER_01: There's the potential for the creation of a new,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: Democratic government,
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  SPEAKER_01: what we call the governing trifecta.
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  SPEAKER_01: Are you voting for Spamberg?
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  SPEAKER_00: What about Jay Jones?
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  So,
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  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
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  SPEAKER_00: I'm your host, Geoffrey Skelley.
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  SPEAKER_00: I'm the Chief Elections Analyst at DDHQ.
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  Hey,
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  in 2025,
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  two states have gubernatorial elections here in less than a month,
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  actually.
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  And one of them is Virginia,
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  which is my native state or Commonwealth,
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  to be more precise.
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  ButIthoughtitwouldbegreattodigintowhat'shappeninginVirginiaaswe
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  SPEAKER_00: enter the homestretch of that election.
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  SPEAKER_00: Notably,
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  SPEAKER_00: though,
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  SPEAKER_00: Virginia also has down-ballot races for lieutenant governor,
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  SPEAKER_00: attorney general,
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  SPEAKER_00: and also the lower chamber of the state's legislative assembly,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is the House of Delegates.
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  And that race for attorney general in particular has really made headlines
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  inthe
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  SPEAKER_00: past couple of weeks.
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  SPEAKER_00: On October 3rd,
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  SPEAKER_00: National Review published evidence that Jay Jones,
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  SPEAKER_00: the Democratic nominee for attorney general,
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  SPEAKER_00: had sent a series of disturbing text messages.
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  SPEAKER_00: in August 2022.
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  SPEAKER_00: In them,
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  Jones wrote of a hypothetical situation in which he shot and killed
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  RepublicanTodd
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  SPEAKER_00: Gilbert,
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  SPEAKER_00: who at the time was Speaker of the House of Delegates.
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  These texts and other revealed actions and comments previously made by
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  Joneshave
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  SPEAKER_00: really shaken up the AG race in Virginia.
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  SPEAKER_00: So as you might imagine,
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  SPEAKER_00: there's a lot to unpack here,
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  SPEAKER_00: and I can think of no one better to do that with than Kyle Kondik,
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  who is the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of
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  Virginia
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  SPEAKER_00: Center for Politics.
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  SPEAKER_00: Kyle and I worked together for many years at the Center for Politics,
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  SPEAKER_00: and he is one of the sharpest observers of contemporary politics around.
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  SPEAKER_00: I should mention that he's also the author of two great books.
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  SPEAKER_00: You should check them out.
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  SPEAKER_00: The Bellwether,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is about Ohio,
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  SPEAKER_00: his native state,
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  SPEAKER_00: and The Long Red Thread,
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  which if you're interested in sort of how we got here in terms of how the House
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  of
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  SPEAKER_00: Representatives is electorally today,
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  this takes you all the way from the 1960s to the present day and basically
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  covers
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  SPEAKER_00: how Republicans slowly gained the upper hand in that chamber.
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  SPEAKER_00: which Democrats had once dominated.
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  SPEAKER_00: So, Kyle, welcome in.
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  SPEAKER_00: I thought just to start out,
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  wecouldmaybesetthesceneforviewersandlistenersalittlebitbytalking
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  SPEAKER_00: about the three statewide races and where things stand.
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  I thought we'd talk a little bit about governor and lieutenant governor
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  firstand
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  SPEAKER_00: then turn to the one that's now getting all the attention,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is the attorney general's race.
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  SPEAKER_00: So I should note that the crystal ball,
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  SPEAKER_00: which which rates races,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: a toss up lean Democratic,
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  SPEAKER_00: likely Democratic,
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  SPEAKER_00: safe Democratic,
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  SPEAKER_00: that kind of thing.
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  SPEAKER_00: And on the Republican side as well.
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  You guys at the crystal ball have had this race at likely Democratic for some
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  time
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  SPEAKER_00: now since basically Labor Day.
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  AndsoIwasIjustcuriousifyou'dsortoflayouthowyouseethingsinthat
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  race and what sort of has led you guys to that that position as of right now.
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  Yeah,
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  we still feel that way,
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  and nice to be joining you,
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  Jeff,
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  for the podcast.
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  SPEAKER_01: So Abigail Spanberger has had, I think, a pretty durable polling lead.
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  SPEAKER_01: It seems like there are kind of two competing views of the electorate.
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  There are some of the kind of nonpartisan university pollsters that maybe
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  show
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  Spanberger as having kind of a high single-digit or even low double-digit
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  lead.
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  SPEAKER_01: And then there are some pollsters that I would qualify as maybe sort of –
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  SPEAKER_01: generally kind of Republican leaning.
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  And they've shown also shown Spanberger leading,
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  but by more like low to mid single digits.
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  ButIdon'tthinkI'veseenanypollingfromanyonethat'sshownSpanberger
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  SPEAKER_01: actually Spanberger actually losing the governor's race.
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  And I think there's some question as to like what the electorate will
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  actuallylook
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: in terms of the mix of Democrats,
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  SPEAKER_01: Republicans,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: Virginia doesn't have registration by party.
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  SPEAKER_01: And so that's all modeled,
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  SPEAKER_01: although in a poll,
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  SPEAKER_01: you could ask someone,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: whether they're a Democrat or Republican.
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  SPEAKER_01: And even when you do an electorate that maybe looks like 2021,
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  SPEAKER_01: which is a year where Republicans actually won the governorship,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: you still see Spanberger leading in that kind of scenario.
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  SPEAKER_01: And of course,
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  it stands to reason that the electorate probably will be a little bit bluer,
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  SPEAKER_01: maybe significantly bluer than what 2021 was.
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  Given the usual dynamic of these Virginia governors races in which the you
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  know,
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  the non White House Party often wins this race consistently going back to the
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  70s,
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  SPEAKER_01: except for when Terry McAuliffe Democrat won in 2013,
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  despite Barack Obama being in the White House and McAuliffe had a lot go right
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  for
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  SPEAKER_01: him in that race.
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  SPEAKER_01: When Glenn Youngkin won in 2021 by two points over McAuliffe,
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  SPEAKER_01: who was trying to win back the office,
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  SPEAKER_01: Youngkin,
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  SPEAKER_01: I think,
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  SPEAKER_01: had a number of things going in his favor in that election,
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  SPEAKER_01: and he won by two points.
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  SPEAKER_01: Virginia used to be Republican-leaning at the federal level.
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  SPEAKER_01: It's now Democratic-leaning at the federal level.
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  I do think that Winston Earle-Sears is not as strong of a candidate as Glenn
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  Youngkin was.
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  SPEAKER_01: She's also not as well-funded.
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  Abigail Spanberger is in some ways kind of out of central casting for recent
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  major
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  SPEAKER_01: Democratic candidates.
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  She won a big House race in 2018 and was able to defend that seat before
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  retiring
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  SPEAKER_01: in 2024 in advance of this gubernatorial run.
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  SPEAKER_01: I do think that the,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: the Jay Jones story,
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  SPEAKER_01: which we'll get to,
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  SPEAKER_01: has been certainly an unwelcome development in the race for the governor,
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  SPEAKER_01: the governor's race.
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  SPEAKER_01: But while it's shaken up the attorney general's race,
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  I still think Spanberger is still pretty clearly favored in the governor's
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  race.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_00: And to your point about sort of the dynamics we've seen,
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  SPEAKER_00: there's sort of a combination here,
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  SPEAKER_00: right,
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  SPEAKER_00: of Virginia having trended toward the Democrats in national politics,
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  SPEAKER_00: but also even importantly for even Youngkin winning in 2021,
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  the state has a habit of sort of shifting away from the president's party.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so I threw up a chart on screen here.
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  showing the change from the presidential margin in Virginia to the
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  governor's
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  SPEAKER_00: margin in the year following.
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  SPEAKER_00: And there is a very consistent pattern,
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  SPEAKER_00: basically since the 1973 Henry Howell,
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  SPEAKER_00: technically an independent race,
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  SPEAKER_00: which I did not include on this.
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  SPEAKER_00: Henry Howell was a Democrat who ran as an independent in 1973 and lost.
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  SPEAKER_00: Basically,
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  SPEAKER_00: since that time,
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  SPEAKER_00: every single cycle,
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  SPEAKER_00: even that 2013 cycle,
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  SPEAKER_00: when Democrats did hold on to the governorship,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is then the one exception,
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  SPEAKER_00: the president's party always loses the governorship outside of that.
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  SPEAKER_00: Even in that election,
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  thingstrendedslightlytotherightrelativetowheretheywereinthe2012
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  SPEAKER_00: presidential election in Virginia.
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  So,
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  you know,
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  for instance,
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  in 2021,
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  youwentfromastatethatBidencarriedbyabout
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  SPEAKER_00: 10 percentage points to one that Youngkin won by about two.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so you had about a 12 point swing in the Republican direction.
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  SPEAKER_00: So there's been a habit of the president's party losing ground.
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  And if you're talking about a state where Donald Trump lost by about six
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  percentage
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  SPEAKER_00: points,
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  there's no ground that you can afford to lose if that trend is going to keep up.
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  SPEAKER_00: If we see something like that,
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  even if Republicans gained a little ground relative to the 2024
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  presidential
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  SPEAKER_00: election,
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  it would still that would still equal Spanberger victory as long as it wasn't
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  more
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  SPEAKER_00: than six points or so.
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  SPEAKER_00: So that's sort of thinking about the sort of tough overall dynamics.
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  SPEAKER_00: You know,
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  SPEAKER_00: none of this is a given,
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  but in an environment where we see a president with mediocre approval
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  ratings,
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  SPEAKER_00: there seems to be a bit of a backlash.
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  SPEAKER_00: And even when the presidents haven't been that unpopular.
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  SPEAKER_00: So.
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  SPEAKER_00: And just, you know, that's obviously a major thing.
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  You know,
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  you mentioned that the sort of the primary,
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  or sorry,
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  the polling average situation.
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  SPEAKER_00: I wanted to bring that up because Decision Desk, we have ours.
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  SPEAKER_00: And yes,
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  SPEAKER_00: to your point right now,
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  we have Spanberger up by about six percentage points in our polling average.
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  SPEAKER_00: But if I scroll down and look at some of these recent polls,
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  SPEAKER_00: you see,
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_00: you might have to zoom in on the screen,
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  SPEAKER_00: but you might have Trafalgar Group,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is sort of Republican aligned,
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  SPEAKER_00: has Spanberger by about
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  SPEAKER_00: three.
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  SPEAKER_00: You have public policy polling,
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  SPEAKER_00: which was literally polling for the Democratic Governors Association.
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  SPEAKER_00: They have Spanberger by nine.
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  But then you do have some neutral or at least unaligned pollsters like
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  Christopher
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  SPEAKER_00: Newport's Wason Center or Emerson College.
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  or the Schar School at George Mason,
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  which was pulling with the Washington Post.
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  SPEAKER_00: And all those put Spanberger up by about 10 or a little bit more.
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  So I think to your point about sort of these two worlds that we're living in,
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  SPEAKER_00: in terms of what the polls,
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  SPEAKER_00: what might actually play out in terms of what the polls are showing,
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  SPEAKER_00: makes a lot of sense.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_01: And,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  Ialsorememberbackin2017thatthegovernor'sracemaybefeltalittlebit
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  closer and polls maybe had it had it sometimes closer than what it actually
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  ended
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  SPEAKER_01: up being.
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  You know,
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  Ralph Northam,
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  Democrat,
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  ended up winning by about nine points in that race.
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  SPEAKER_01: And,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: there was there was some shakiness there,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: in the weeks leading up to the election.
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  SPEAKER_01: So so, again, I still I think this is Spanberger's race to lose.
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  SPEAKER_01: And,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: again,
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  SPEAKER_01: if you if you do look at just to bring in a few other places,
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  SPEAKER_01: if you look at like some of the big elections this year,
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  SPEAKER_01: the New Jersey governor's race,
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  there's a retention elections for the Democratic justices in the
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  Pennsylvania
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  SPEAKER_01: Supreme Court.
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  SPEAKER_01: There's a New York City mayor's race.
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  There's also the proposed Democratic gerrymander of California that
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  voters are voting on.
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  SPEAKER_01: You know, really, the Democrats probably should win all these races.
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  SPEAKER_01: And then it's a question of like, do they actually win all of them?
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  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, what are the what are the margins look like?
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  SPEAKER_01: You know,
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  I think you could you can maybe set the Virginia attorney general's race
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  asidejust
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  SPEAKER_01: because of the really unusual circumstances there.
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  SPEAKER_01: But the key question to me is,
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  do the Democrats actually come through in these races when I think in paper
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  they
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  SPEAKER_01: probably should?
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  Yeah,
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  that that makes perfect sense,
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  especially given the states we're talking about.
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  Those are generally none of those are particularly Republican leaning
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  states.
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  SPEAKER_00: So even in a in a pro-democratic environment in a in a dark red state,
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  SPEAKER_00: you might still expect Republicans to have the edge.
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  SPEAKER_00: But in these states that are light blue or dark blue,
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  SPEAKER_00: in the case of California,
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  SPEAKER_00: you would expect Democrats to have an upper hand.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's also worth mentioning that there is a lieutenant governor's race.
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  SPEAKER_00: I will bring up our polling average for that, which we just released.
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  SPEAKER_00: And in that,
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  SPEAKER_00: you have State Senator Ghazala Hashmi,
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  SPEAKER_00: who's the Democratic nominee,
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  SPEAKER_00: facing John Reid,
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  SPEAKER_00: who's the Republican lieutenant governor nominee.
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  And in our polling average right now,
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  it's about a four-point gap in favor of Hashmi.
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  SPEAKER_00: And this race is now kind of the...
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  The third wheel in terms of what's happening in Virginia with all the focus on
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  the
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  SPEAKER_00: governor's race and now the attorney general's race.
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  SPEAKER_00: But I thought it was at least worth mentioning.
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  SPEAKER_00: This is also going on.
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  SPEAKER_00: Virginia has three statewide elections.
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  SPEAKER_00: There's been we're going to talk about this dynamic,
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  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure,
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  SPEAKER_00: when we talk about the attorney general situation.
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  But there has been a habit in Virginia of at least in recent elections of all
• 10:59
  these
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  SPEAKER_00: contests running pretty closely together.
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  So I just brought up this chart that I had for an article a little while back.
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  SPEAKER_00: And essentially,
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  it's showing you the range between sort of the most Republican leaning and
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  most
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: Democratic leaning outcomes.
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  SPEAKER_00: And at least since the mid 2000s, there hasn't been a big range.
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  SPEAKER_00: Now, the 2013 case, there was...
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  Ralph Northam,
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  who you mentioned earlier,
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  was running for lieutenant governor.
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  SPEAKER_00: He faced a very weak Republican candidate in E.W.
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  SPEAKER_00: Jackson, and we saw a bigger difference.
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  But in 2021 and 2017,
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  you're talking about one to three point difference in terms of margin.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: that's a situation where in 2021,
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: Youngkin was getting about 50 percent of the vote.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so was Jason Miyares, the attorney general candidate.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so it was
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  SPEAKER_00: So it was Winston Earle-Sears, Lieutenant Governor.
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean, they're all getting very similar shares of the vote.
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  And I think that speaks to the fact that there just aren't a ton of split ticket
• 11:53
  voters.
• 11:53
  Now,
• 11:53
  this business going on in the attorney general's race is going to test that to
• 11:56
  some extent.
• 11:58
  ButIthinkwhenyouseeSpanbergerupbyaboutsixpercentagepointsinour
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: polling average,
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  SPEAKER_00: Hashmi and the Lieutenant Governor's race up by about four.
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  And prior to the sort of explosive scandal with Jones's text messages and
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  somepast
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: comments and things that he'd done,
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  SPEAKER_00: he was up by six.
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  SPEAKER_00: you know, three, four percentage points as well in a lot of polls.
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  And so the fact that they were running so close together made perfect sense
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  based
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  SPEAKER_00: on what we've seen historically.
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  SoIguessthisisagoodtimetomaybeshiftoverandtalkaboutthatattorney
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  SPEAKER_00: general's contest,
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  SPEAKER_00: since I know that's sort of the main thing that people are talking about.
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  SPEAKER_00: And it's worth noting that we're recording here on a Wednesday,
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  SPEAKER_00: but on Thursday,
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  SPEAKER_00: October 16th,
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  SPEAKER_00: they're actually having a debate.
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  Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares will be facing off against Jay
• 12:43
  Jones.
• 12:44
  And I guess it's let me just also put this in because I don't want to forget.
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  People may be wondering,
• 12:49
  why is Glenn Youngkin not running for reelection?
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  And it's worth noting that Virginia is the only state we're so proud of this,
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: us Virginians,
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  that does not allow a sitting governor and a sitting elected governor to seek
• 13:02
  a
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: second consecutive term.
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  SPEAKER_00: So Youngkin can't run again.
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  But the lieutenant governor and the attorney general can both run for
• 13:10
  immediate
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: reelection in Virginia.
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  SPEAKER_00: So Meares,
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  SPEAKER_00: the sitting Republican attorney general,
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  SPEAKER_00: is running for re-election while Earle-Sears,
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  SPEAKER_00: the sitting lieutenant governor,
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  SPEAKER_00: is seeking the governorship.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so we have an open race for lieutenant governor.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's why you have sort of that weirdness going on in Virginia.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: So turning to the AG's race, the attorney general's race, it's...
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: A bit of a mess.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: You know, the big story here is this tech scandal.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_00: He's also had some other issues.
• 13:36
  There was a situation where where he apparently in the same year he sent these
• 13:41
  text
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: messages that got a lot of attention.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: He also was.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: charged with reckless driving for going like 116 miles per hour on I-64,
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: interstate 64,
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: which is,
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: a 70 mile per hour zone where he was doing that.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: So a bit over.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: And he had a bunch of community service he had to do.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: And apparently some of that community service,
• 14:00
  he performed on behalf of his political action committee that he's
• 14:05
  associatedwith
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: or a political group that he's associated with.
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_00: which isn't maybe the best look.
• 14:11
  He'salsohadsomeothercommentsthathavecomeoutsincethetextmessaging
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_00: scandal that have raised eyebrows.
• 14:17
  So long and short here is that we have a race that now in our polling average has
• 14:24
  gonefrom
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: One where Jones was up by,
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: three,
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: four points to one where they are now tied in our polling average.
• 14:34
  And again,
• 14:34
  there might be some different universes of what people think is going on
• 14:37
  here.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_00: But nonetheless,
• 14:39
  thelongstoryshortisthatJoneshasdefinitelylostgroundandthatthat's
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_00: really opened the door,
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: for Bjaris to potentially to potentially win this thing.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_01: You brought up the history in one of the previous slides,
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_01: but the last four times in Virginia,
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_01: the three statewide elected offices all voted for the same party.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: Now, it was close.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_01: The AG race was extremely close in 2013, but the Democrats eked it out.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: But in 2021, you saw this very close association.
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_01: Youngkin won by two.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: I think Earle-Sears won by one and a half, and Miyares won by about
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: And so there was there's hardly any difference in those races,
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_01: even though all of them were were close.
• 15:23
  And so here we have a great test because you have this really horrible story
• 15:27
  for,
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: for Jay Jones,
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_01: a Democratic candidate.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_01: Now, you haven't really seen Democrats abandon him, though.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_01: They've said.
• 15:34
  that the comments are deplorable,
• 15:37
  but they haven't necessarily asked him to leave the race.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_01: It's really practically too late for Jones to leave the race.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_01: It was too late when the story broke,
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_01: and it's too late now without effectively conceding the race,
• 15:47
  because my understanding is that votes cast for him wouldn't count for him.
• 15:51
  You could have a quasi-replacement candidate whose name would be posted at
• 15:56
  polling
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_01: locations,
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_01: but their name wouldn't actually be on the ballot.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_01: So it really has put Democrats in a difficult position.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_01: And you have seen some spillover in the governor's race.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_01: There was a debate between Spanberger and Earle-Sears,
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_01: I think the only debate that's scheduled on the calendar last Thursday.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_01: And Earle-Sears was talking about this a lot.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_01: And Spanberger...
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: she didn't retract her endorsement of Jay Jones,
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_01: but she also kind of told the,
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_01: told,
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_01: told voters basically vote,
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_01: vote your conscience,
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_01: that sort of,
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_01: that sort of thing.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and so again, you know, unwelcome development for, for Spanberger.
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_01: And,
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_01: of course,
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_01: if she,
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: she gets elected governor,
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_01: she's going to want a democratic attorney general.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_01: the thing I do wonder about is that even though this Jones story is,
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_01: is a huge story,
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: it's getting a lot of attention.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_01: I think Miyares has run some,
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty understated and I think effective ads about it.
• 16:51
  It's still possible that people are just going to vote straight tickets and
• 16:54
  that,
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_01: the Jones around behind Spanberger,
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_01: but,
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_01: but she might still win by enough to,
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_01: to kind of drag him over,
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_01: over the,
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_01: the,
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_01: the finish line.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, we haven't we have gotten some polls.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_01: There have been sort of dueling internals.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_01: You know, Jay Jones's campaign put out a poll that had him up one point.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_01: I think there was one conducted conducted for Meares that had him up to,
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: I'm curious to see when we get,
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:19
  some of the nonpartisan pollsters kind of wading back into this into this
• 17:22
  race,
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: which I imagine they will do.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_01: um, before the election.
• 17:25
  Uh,
• 17:26
  you know,
• 17:26
  the key thing for Miyares is,
• 17:28
  is basically just to keep the story front center.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_01: And,
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_01: Miyares is even before this did have a resource advantage on Jones,
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_01: which has allowed him to,
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_01: to,
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_01: to,
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_01: to run more ads.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_01: Uh,
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_01: and I would think Jones would have trouble,
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_01: sustaining his own fundraising,
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_01: down the stretch here,
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_01: given that he's become,
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_01: kind of,
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_01: kind of toxic really.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so that's, that's a consideration, uh,
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_01: as well.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_01: And again,
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_01: the overall kind of you look nationally,
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_01: it used to be more common to have,
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_01: the attorney general is a Democrat,
• 17:58
  butthegovernorisaRepublicanorthestateauditorisaRepublicanandthe
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_01: governor is a Democrat,
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_01: that sort of thing.
• 18:03
  But there's just less differentiation in these in these races across the
• 18:07
  board.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: And so this is, again, what I think we are is fighting against.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: But
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_01: If you can't generate a lot of ticket splitting with a story like this,
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_01: because again,
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_01: I guess the initial text,
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_01: you could argue,
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_01: oh,
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: it was just a joke or whatever.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_01: I guess the phrasing that Jones used was, I think it's a joke.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_01: Macabre.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_01: It's been used before.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_01: People started like, oh, it was in the office, I guess.
• 18:32
  But then he kind of doubled and tripled down on it in these text messages.
• 18:37
  And it just made it harder for him to say,
• 18:40
  oh,
• 18:40
  well,
• 18:40
  it was just a joke or whatever.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_01: You know, he is his initial statement was sort of dismissive about it.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_01: And then he put out kind of a more serious statement later in the day.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: It was, you know, Friday when when this whole thing came out.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_01: So obviously we're recording before this debate.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it's certainly going to be a major focus of of the debate.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see how how Jones deals with it in that forum.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I wonder how much they'll talk about anything else related to that.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_00: And to your point about the resource advantage that Meares has,
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_00: I brought up a chart we have here,
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_00: which my timing wasn't great for this podcast recording,
• 19:17
  becauseIthinkwe'regoingtogetnewfundraisingreportshereverysoonin
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: Virginia.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_00: But nonetheless, this is from right at the end of August.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_00: You can see that in the governor and lieutenant governor's races,
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_00: that the Democrats had a clear fundraising advantage.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_00: This is data from the Virginia Public Access Project,
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_00: which I wish every state had a Virginia Public Access Project.
• 19:37
  But in the attorney general's race,
• 19:39
  the Republicans had a fundraising edge.
• 19:42
  And what's worth noting there is that Miyares also had no primary
• 19:46
  opposition,
• 19:46
  whereas Jay Jones had to win a highly contested primary against Shannon
• 19:50
  Taylor,
• 19:50
  who's actually now running for the Democratic nomination in the first
• 19:53
  congressional
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_00: district in Virginia.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_00: But that was a very competitive, very close race that cost resources.
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_00: And so Jones already behind on that front.
• 20:01
  And now I'm sure to your point that he is he's going to struggle to fundraise.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_00: And so this this leads me,
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_00: the crystal ball had a recent reaction to the to the Jones situation.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_00: And I was curious for your thoughts, especially when trying to think of.
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_00: Because you were mentioning there,
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_00: it's like,
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_00: well,
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_00: if this can't produce more split ticket voters,
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: what can,
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_00: And are we in a different place now here in 2025 than, say, 2012?
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_00: Because in that piece, you mentioned Todd Akin in Missouri, famously.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_00: And so I was just kind of curious for your thoughts on that.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_01: it's hard to think about a,
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_01: something that happens in a down ballot race kind of rising up and,
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_01: becoming an issue in other races.
• 20:41
  IwillsaythattherewassomethoughtlastcyclethatwhenMarkRobinson's
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_01: campaign kind of blew up in North Carolina,
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_01: and he was always a weak candidate,
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_01: but,
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_01: he had his own scandal regarding,
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_01: his X-rated account.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_01: I don't need to go into all that.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_01: all that.
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_00: Put things on the internet or you text them.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: They will reappear if you're not careful.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: His campaign blew up and there was a thought,
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_01: oh,
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_01: he's going to have an effect on the presidential race.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think you can argue that he did.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_01: And even,
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:13
  DemocratsdidwinsomeotherstatewideracesinNorthCarolinabesidesthe
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: governor's race.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe you could argue if the governor's race had been closer,
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_01: maybe some of those races would have been a different way.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_01: But those races were generally a lot closer than the governor's race was.
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, it's possible for voters to sort of separate out
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_01: one race from the others.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_01: Now a governor's race is inherently a bigger race than a,
• 21:37
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_01: than a state,
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_01: a state attorney general race is.
• 21:42
  But I suspect you will see some difference between that race and the other
• 21:45
  two.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_01: the lieutenant governor's race hasn't,
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's definitely been the lowest profile of the three races.
• 21:53
  And I think it's probably likelier than the AG's race to kind of look more like
• 21:57
  the
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_01: governor's race.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_00: You know, and just trying to think back to recent examples.
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_00: So in 2013,
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_00: you had a weak,
• 22:09
  very weak Republican nominee for lieutenant governor and Ralph Northam
• 22:13
  wentonto
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_00: win that race,
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_00: the Democrat by almost 11 percentage points.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_00: And so there was about a 10 point gap in or sorry,
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_00: eight point gap in margin,
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: I should say,
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_00: between let me share this tab again with with with this in 2013.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_00: You can see
• 22:31
  Terry McAuliffe won by about two and a half percentage points and Ralph
• 22:34
  Northamwon
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_00: by about 10.6 in the lieutenant governor's race.
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_00: So he had about an eight point gap there.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_00: And so I'm kind of maybe this is like my my crude over under of like,
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_00: can we see a gap that big or will it be less than that?
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_00: Will it be more than that between the gubernatorial and AG's race?
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, to your point.
• 22:53
  You know,
• 22:53
  some of these polls have had Spanberger are up by 10 or so percentage points.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_00: And if she wins by a margin akin to what Northam won by in,
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: say,
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: 2017,
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: which was about nine percentage points,
• 23:03
  Jonesmightbeabletosqueakacrossifit'saevenifitislikeaneightpoint
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_00: difference in margin.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_00: So I just wanted to add a little more to what you were saying about that,
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_00: because I think that that's an excellent point.
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_00: And it really speaks to how much it will matter for Democrats.
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_00: And this will be true for the House of Delegates to down ballot,
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_00: the lower chamber in the state legislature.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_00: elections there will be,
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_00: to some extent,
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_00: Spamberger's coattails,
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_00: assuming she does go on to win,
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_00: will matter a great deal.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's right.
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_01: And I think I'd be remiss not to mention,
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_01: we sort of touched briefly on the lieutenant governor's race.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_01: John Reid, the Republican candidate, he's had some controversies himself.
• 23:41
  SPEAKER_01: And so back in the spring,
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_01: after another Republican candidate dropped out of the primary,
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_01: so this was before the primary,
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_01: Governor Youngkin actually tried to get Reid to leave the race.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_01: It was based on the discovery of this.
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just reading, just so I get the details right, I'm reading from a
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_01: Crystal ball.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_00: I respect that.
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_00: I respect that.
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_01: Back of the spring,
• 24:01
  outgoingGovernorGlennYoungkintriedtogetReidtoleavetheraceoverthe
• 24:04
  discovery of a Tumblr blog allegedly linked to him that had shared
• 24:07
  pornographic
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_01: content.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_01: Reid denies owning the account and obviously declined to leave the race.
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_01: And then more recently,
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_01: there was a new report that the same account,
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_01: quote,
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_01: shared content from accounts that fetishized Nazism and sexual violence,
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_01: end quote.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, Reid denied that as well.
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_01: It's actually in some ways reminiscent to the Mark Robinson story,
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_01: although there are key differences.
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_01: First of all, Robinson is a real strong social conservative.
• 24:34
  AndsoitmadehimkindoflookhypocriticalinawaythatIdon'tthinkyou'd
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_01: necessarily say about Reid.
• 24:39
  And I think Reid's also just fortunate that the Jay Jones stuff kind of broke
• 24:44
  at the same time.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_01: And so that's just been much more of a focus of the
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats tried to get some traction for that.
• 24:51
  SPEAKER_01: I don't necessarily know if they have,
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_01: but I also don't necessarily know if,
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_01: Reid really hasn't had many resources himself.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_01: And so he may be less able to withstand,
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_01: whatever happens at the top of the ticket compared to Miyares,
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_01: who obviously has the Jay Jones scandal to run against,
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_01: but also has made much more resources himself.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 25:12
  SPEAKER_00: and I think it's worth also mentioning that,
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 25:14
  one of the reasons why Jones's text messages and some of the other things that
• 25:18
  he's
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_00: sort of said and phone conversations and stuff that have come out,
• 25:22
  Ithinkreallyhitevenharderisbecauseobviouslythishappenedjustinthe
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_00: aftermath of the assassination of Charlie Kirk.
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_00: political violence is very fresh on people's minds.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's an issue that Republicans,
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_00: given Kirk was,
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_00: are in a better position to maybe run with politically.
• 25:37
  If,
• 25:37
  you know,
• 25:37
  just,
• 25:38
  you know,
• 25:38
  very simple black and white point about that.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_00: But it's it's
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 25:44
  SPEAKER_00: at the end of the day,
• 25:44
  it was going to have more salience in this environment than it might have had a
• 25:48
  few
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_00: months ago.
• 25:49
  Not that I think reading the reading the texts and some of the other things
• 25:52
  that
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_00: he's he purportedly said would would be bad,
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_00: regardless of the circumstances.
• 25:57
  But I think it's particularly hitting hard in this environment in the
• 26:01
  aftermathof
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_00: Kirk's assassination.
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_01: there's,
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_01: just to put it in sort of journalism terms,
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_01: there's a news,
• 26:07
  SPEAKER_01: what we call a news bag for the story in that it's,
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_01: obviously there are the text messages,
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_01: but they connect to a,
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_01: a pre-discussion,
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_01: a pre-existing issue that's being,
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_01: that's being discussed.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_01: the other thing is that,
• 26:22
  so Jones has really wanted to nationalize this race because he wants to rise
• 26:25
  to
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_01: Amberger's coattails.
• 26:27
  He wants to talk about Miyares being,
• 26:28
  you know,
• 26:29
  being,
• 26:29
  being sort of a,
• 26:30
  you know,
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_01: conservative, Trump-aligned candidate, that sort of thing.
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_01: And Miyares just really wanted to localize the race.
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_01: Generally speaking,
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_01: these days,
• 26:38
  you want to be the candidate who can nationalize as opposed to the candidate
• 26:41
  who
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_01: localizes.
• 26:42
  SPEAKER_01: But again,
• 26:43
  the texts are so unusual that it gives Miyares a pretty powerful message to
• 26:47
  localize
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_01: the race.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_01: And interestingly,
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_01: Miyares,
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_01: as I mentioned earlier,
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's been doing some pretty effective ads.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_01: But he's using clips from the Spanberger or Earle-Sears debate
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_01: to almost make the case for ticket splitting.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't know how happy Earle-Sears would be about this Miyares's ad,
• 27:04
  because in some ways you could look at the Miyares's ad as almost a
• 27:07
  concessionthat
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_01: Spanberger is going to win the governor's race.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_01: so that,
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_01: and I think it also illustrates another problem for Earle-Sears in that
• 27:16
  She's trying to make her race about something that's not directly about her
• 27:20
  race.
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 27:21
  the Jones text messages and Spanberger's reaction to it would be a different
• 27:24
  story
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_01: if Spanberger had texted.
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 27:27
  SPEAKER_01: Spanberger, to her credit, has not really produced
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_01: the kind of video and audio that would be helpful to Earle-Sears.
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_01: It could be another example.
• 27:36
  SPEAKER_01: Earle-Sears has kind of tried to copy the famous Kamala's for they,
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_01: them,
• 27:42
  talking about transgender issues or whatever from the Trump campaign last
• 27:46
  cycle.
• 27:47
  And part of what made the Trump ads effective is that there were clips of
• 27:51
  Kamala
• 27:51
  Harris from the 2020 presidential cycle talking about transition
• 27:57
  surgeriesfor
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_01: inmates and that sort of thing and taxpayers paying for it.
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_01: There are no such clips of Spanberger saying those sorts of things.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_01: And so,
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_01: it's sort of a it's kind of a weaker,
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_01: watered down version of what was,
• 28:09
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_01: what a lot of people,
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 28:11
  SPEAKER_01: perceived to be an effective ad.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_01: And,
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 28:13
  so so you could you could almost look at Earle-Sears trying to kind of
• 28:16
  piggybackoff
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_01: the Jones things as the Jones hex is sort of similar to that.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 28:21
  I guess the hope for Earle-Sears is that the Jones story is so bad that it has
• 28:26
  this
• 28:26
  like ripple effect on the other races and depresses Democratic turnout and
• 28:30
  that
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_01: sort of thing.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_01: That seems pretty unlikely to me.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_01: But,
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_01: when you're the candidate who's behind,
• 28:36
  SPEAKER_01: you're going to try to,
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_01: figure out,
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_01: whatever whatever you can try to try to run on.
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_01: the flip side of it is that,
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 28:45
  maybe Republicans are a little bit more motivated because of how how things
• 28:49
  have
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_01: developed.
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 28:50
  there has been I've heard from some people on both sides of the aisle that
• 28:54
  there
• 28:54
  wassortofalittlebitofanenthusiasmuptickforRepublicansinthewakeof
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_01: Charlie Kirk being killed just because that was such a such a big story.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_01: And obviously he was a he's a person,
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_01: a beloved person really to some to some on the right.
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_01: And,
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_01: maybe the Jones story has a similar kind of kind of,
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_01: motivating effect on Republicans.
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_01: Kind of hard to know.
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_00: No, I think that's an excellent point.
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_00: The Kirk,
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_00: in the aftermath of the Kirk assassination,
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_00: there was,
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 29:25
  SPEAKER_00: I wrote something about how,
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_00: could this affect young voters?
• 29:27
  Thinking about the 2026 midterms,
• 29:29
  but the 2025 elections come before that.
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_00: And so thinking about Republican turnout and who's engaged,
• 29:35
  SPEAKER_00: like the level of engagement,
• 29:36
  SPEAKER_00: like right now,
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_00: we'd expect Democrats to be a bit more engaged,
• 29:39
  a bit more motivated to turn out because they're more dissatisfied with the
• 29:43
  status
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_00: quo in the country as a whole.
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_00: and in Virginia with a Republican governor there as well.
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_00: And so with that in mind,
• 29:50
  you would expect what we like to call differential turnout where Democrats
• 29:54
  mightbe
• 29:54
  SPEAKER_00: somewhat more likely,
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_00: all else being equal to show up for this election.
• 29:59
  SPEAKER_00: And that's true for 2025 and for 2026.
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_00: with a Republican in the White House.
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_00: But,
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_00: the Kirk,
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_00: the Kirk assassination,
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_00: the Jones tech scandal,
• 30:07
  these are things that could get some Republicans who maybe were a lower
• 30:10
  propensity
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_00: voters a bit more engaged than they would have been otherwise.
• 30:13
  SPEAKER_00: And so,
• 30:14
  SPEAKER_00: yes,
• 30:14
  SPEAKER_00: this could definitely be something that,
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_00: when you're talking about on the margins,
• 30:17
  SPEAKER_00: I think the problem for Earle-Sears is that
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_00: Except for the most favorable polls for her,
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_00: a slight shift in the margins isn't going to save her,
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_00: but it could save Miyares.
• 30:27
  SPEAKER_00: And to your point,
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_00: I wanted to mention that in this ad I think you were referenced in,
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_00: he directly says to the camera,
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_00: are you voting for Spanberger?
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_00: What about Jay Jones?
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_00: And then he basically,
• 30:39
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 30:39
  SPEAKER_00: he's basically being like,
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_00: hey,
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_00: Spanberger voters,
• 30:42
  SPEAKER_00: I know you're voting for Spanberger,
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_00: but are you going to vote for Jay Jones when he said all this stuff?
• 30:48
  maybe you should consider voting for me or just not voting at all in the AG
• 30:52
  race.
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_00: So I think that's a real, real interesting move by him.
• 30:56
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 30:56
  itmakessenseandismaybeastatementaboutwherehethinkstherealserious
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_00: campaign is.
• 31:00
  SPEAKER_00: But anyway, I, I, I,
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_00: I don't want to cut you off here,
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_00: but we don't have too much time left,
• 31:07
  butIdidn'tknowifyouhadanysortofotherclosingthoughtsaboutsortof
• 31:11
  what's going on in Virginia and what you think of this situation with the AGs
• 31:16
  race
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_00: or really anything to do with the Virginia election in November.
• 31:20
  I think it's important to remember that there's the potential for the
• 31:23
  creationofa
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_01: new democratic government,
• 31:26
  SPEAKER_01: what we call a governing trifecta,
• 31:27
  whereDemocratshavecontrolofbothchambersofstatelegislatureandthe
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_01: governorship,
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_01: which Democrats did have for the last couple of years of Ralph Northam's
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_01: governorship.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_01: Of course, Northam had a huge controversy of his own.
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_01: You know, there was the yearbook photo in which, you know, was almost...
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_01: very likely to be him wearing blackface.
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_01: He decided to kind of soldier his way through it,
• 31:53
  SPEAKER_01: even though there were calls from a lot of people for him to resign.
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_01: But Spanberger would come in.
• 31:59
  If Spanberger wins,
• 32:00
  the Democrats are certainly going to have control of the House of Delegates.
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_01: I think
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_01: They're pretty likely to hold control of the House of Delegates,
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_01: even if Earle-Sears were to somehow win the race.
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_01: And the Virginia State Senate is not on the ballot this year.
• 32:11
  SPEAKER_01: So Democrats have a,
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's 21-19 majority there,
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_01: which is going to persist at least through 2027.
• 32:16
  So there are real governing consequences here in that you could replace
• 32:21
  what's
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_01: currently a divided state government with a unified Democratic element.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_00: And,
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_00: I've,
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_00: I've been writing a lot about,
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 32:29
  gerrymandering and I'm going to have to have you come back on with the mid
• 32:32
  decade
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_00: redistricting stuff going on.
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_00: Um,
• 32:35
  SPEAKER_00: but I know that there's been some conversation in some,
• 32:38
  SPEAKER_00: some blue leaning States about that,
• 32:40
  SPEAKER_00: that have like Virginia that have moved to,
• 32:42
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_00: having,
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_00: um,
• 32:44
  SPEAKER_00: some sort of commission system in Virginia.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_00: It's a bipartisan commission.
• 32:47
  In other states,
• 32:48
  it's more of an independent commission without politicians on it.
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_00: But nonetheless,
• 32:53
  the conversations now with a lot of states where Republicans have full
• 32:56
  controland
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_00: are pursuing a redistricting,
• 33:00
  you do wonder if that's going to be something that comes back to the
• 33:02
  conversation.
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_00: But before we go off and do an entire other podcast...
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_00: on mid-decade redistricting.
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_00: I want to thank Kyle so much for coming on.
• 33:11
  SPEAKER_00: This is Kyle Kondik from the University of Virginia Center for Politics,
• 33:14
  SPEAKER_00: where you can find Sabato's Crystal Ball weekly,
• 33:18
  actually sometimes more than weekly newsletter that keeps track of what's
• 33:21
  goingon
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_00: in elections around the country.
• 33:25
  SPEAKER_00: I highly recommend you subscribe and read.
• 33:27
  SPEAKER_00: I used to write for it and have fond memories and they do great work.
• 33:31
  SPEAKER_00: So Kyle, again, thank you so much for coming on.
• 33:35
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for having me.
• 33:35
  SPEAKER_00: Good to see you, Geoff.
• 33:36
  SPEAKER_00: Good to see you too.