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NFL Week 1 BEST BETS | Fade the Hype · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: You look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three-team parlay turned to dust in your hand. Now you
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Look at me now.
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: hold on Let me pull you out That fella fights
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: hard But it don't get the crown Hold on, hold on.
• 1:17
  Speaker 4: Stay with me now.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: The other night, and that was an easy win, and
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: I leaned New England in the first game, plus three
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: and a half, and that also wound up being a winner,
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: although that game kind of got a little bit skewed
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: by Darnold getting knocked out of the lock, played pretty
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: well in that game, so I don't know if that
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: really was the reason why New England covered, but Seattle
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: could have covered at the end, after they erased a
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: 10-0 deficit, they could have Scored a touchdown at the end,
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: but they didn't. But I'm not here to talk about
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: past games. I'm here to talk about the games tomorrow.
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: I'm only going to give out one play tomorrow, but
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: I like the Monday night game, so I'm going to
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: give out a play in the Monday night game as well.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: So it'll be three plays for the week. Week one
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: is tough, man, because there are no situations, really. Also,
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: I've got this Utah-Arkansas game. Utah is wrecking Arkansas here,
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: so my lean was correct in that game. Did pretty
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: well with the college football calls this week. Even the
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: massive underdogs did pretty well covering, at least, and Michigan
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: was obviously a good call by me. I probably should
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: have played more of the games because I felt like
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: I got a lot of them right today. Charles, what's up?
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: Thanks for hanging out.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: I told you I was going to do the show
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: late night after I got back from the Rush concert.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: Finally got to see my favorite band. I'm an idiot
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: for never seeing them during the Neil era. During my
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: entire life prior to today, I mean... still a good show, though, yeah,
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, Geddy's lost a bit of his voice, like,
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: the upper range, you know, I mean, he's 73 or whatever, so,
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: but he's still out there doing it, man, he can
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: still slap at a bass really well, Alex, still a
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: monster on guitar, I mean, Geddy can still sing, just,
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: he's changing some of the parts or whatever, not trying
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: to hit some of the extra high notes or whatever,
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: and their new drummer is pretty sick, actually, Annika, I mean,
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: nobody can really replace Neil, but she's really good, and
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: and kind of puts her own spin on it. The
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: show was good.
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: They played for like three hours, man. Got to hand
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: it to them.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: It's crazy. I'm going to do it again on Monday.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: How about that? Anyway, I don't want the show to
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: go that long, so let's get into it. Week one
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: is kind of a quick handicap for me because there's
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: just not a lot to talk about here. We could
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: talk about roster construction a little bit, but I feel
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: like I'm just kind of throwing darts here and just guessing.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Yeah. I mean, they still
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: bring the energy. What's the lyric from the song that
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: you mentioned this morning? Spirit of Radio.
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: Invisible airwaves cracker with light.
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: Brian and Tana glisten with the energy. Whatever the hell
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: it is.
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that's what I was just thinking of.
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: All right. Tampa Bay and Cincinnati is the first game
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: up here in the 1 p.m.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Slate.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: I'll just go chronologically here. This is on Fox. Now,
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: I feel that Cincinnati is like, they're the team that
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: everybody kind of is like, this team never wins in September.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: I think that's the thing about Cincinnati under Zach Taylor,
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: who's still there as their coach. Um, yeah. Well, I mean,
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: I meant the line that had the word energy in it,
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: but yeah, same song.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: Uh, they, they played that tonight, of course. Um, Yeah,
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: but Cincinnati, the thing is, people talk about how with
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Zach Taylor, they never do well in September. They always
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: start slow, but I think they've kind of fixed that recently.
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: They started finally focusing on that because the reason was
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: they just didn't play their guys during preseason, so they
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: would come into the season cold, and it kind of
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: came to a head a couple years ago, and it
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: was like Joe Burrow, I think, was, I don't know,
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: I think he didn't play in preseason, so he was
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: coming in cold, and then there was like the Jamar
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: Chase contract holdout or whatever. That one year where they
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: lost to New England in the first game as the favorite.
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: That's when everybody really started talking about this. I'm pretty
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: sure last year Cincinnati was not as bad out of
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: the gate. It's just that Joe Burrow then got hurt
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: because he always does. And then Cincinnati didn't do well.
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: He came back and they almost made the playoffs. But
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: Joe Burrow is here now and Cincinnati is well aware
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: of their September struggles. So I kind of like Cincinnati
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: in this one. To me, I think the public is
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: going to be kind of coming in and backing Tampa
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: Bay here. And Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield just got that
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: new contract. I actually don't like that, even though if
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: Mayfield still didn't have that contract, there might be that
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: question looming over his head, and he might be distracted.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: So I guess maybe it's good that he got the contract,
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: but because he got this huge contract, what if he
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: feels like he doesn't have to do as much now?
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? I was never really a
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: fan of Mayfield.
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: I kind of think he's overperformed with Tampa, and Tampa
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: was really bad in the second half of the season
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: last year. And people... might undervalue them because of that,
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: because they fell apart at the end of the season,
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: and then they failed to make the playoffs. They got
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: knocked out. After they beat Carolina, they got knocked out
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: because the Saints beat Atlanta, I think is what it was.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: Is that what it was? I think so. Whatever it was.
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: It was the three-way tie. Or Atlanta beat the Saints,
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: I think, and then it was a three-way tie for
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: the division, which meant that the tiebreaker expanded to the
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: round robin of all three teams. Something crazy. Whatever. But
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay, people kind of forget that at the beginning
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: of the season, when Tampa was winning last year, they
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: were winning a bunch of games, like pulling them out
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: of their ass. Like they were losing in the final
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: two minutes of almost every game that they won early
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: in the season. So they were barely winning all those games.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. I'm not high on Tampa. If
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: you saw my previews with Clint and the one that
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: I did way earlier with the win totals and whatever, I.
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: I have New Orleans winning that division.
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: It's a shit division, but yeah, I'm going to link
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati in this one, at least for now. I'm going
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: to still have to do the final market read, though,
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: to see what happens. We have 50% of the tickets,
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: 60% of the cash on Tampa right now. Some money
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: is coming in on Tampa. It could just be like
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: a number play, though, because Cincinnati opened two and a half,
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: now they're three and a half, maybe four, but that's
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: a significant move. It went through the key number three,
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: so that's not nothing, although it does look like with
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: that higher number. The money is coming back in on Tampa.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: This is also, I believe, the highest total of the
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: week in this game, which is 50.5, down for 52.5,
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: but that means it's easier for the favorite to cover
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: if there are going to be more points. I think
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's offense could be rolling again. They have the same
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: guys there, same coach, whatever. Tampa Bay, of course, did
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: lose Mike Evans to San Francisco, and he looked pretty
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: good the other night. He was on my fantasy bench
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: as well because I have A bunch of decent receivers. So, Mr. Pinsey,
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Zach, what's up? Thanks
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: for hanging out. Zach, your team and my team are
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: playing each other in baseball right now, and I'm not
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: happy with the Red Sox performance, even though they did
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: win today. Their failure to sweep the Royals is bullshit,
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: and they might lose the series. But anyway, yeah, those
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: are my thoughts on that. My lean is slightly towards
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati right now in that one. Also on Fox, 1 p.m.,
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: New Orleans, Detroit. I'm kind of high on both of
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: these teams this year. I think both of these teams
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: might be a little bit undervalued coming into this year,
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: but they're playing each other here, so I have to
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: pick one of these two teams. You know what I mean?
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: Detroit didn't make the playoffs last year, but they were
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: certainly good enough to be a playoff team last year.
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: Their offense was very good. People are saying, well, they
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: took a step back without Ben Johnson, whatever. I'm not
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: so sure.
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: I mean, Detroit seemed to just kind of wind up on.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: The wrong end of a bunch of like big games
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: that they had to get, like they lost like all
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: their games against good teams last year. If you saw
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: my season wind totals, uh, episode, I, I liked Detroit
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: over their wind total.
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: That's one of my wind totals I gave out. I
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: believe I gave it out.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: I think it over, was it 10 and a half? Maybe.
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even remember what it was. It's going to
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: be difficult in their division. Yeah. But, um, I think
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: Detroit's out of division schedule is pretty easy this year. Um,
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: But the public, I believe, is going to be on
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: Detroit here because the public doesn't think much of New Orleans. Detroit, though,
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: 77% of tickets, 86% of the cash on them, though.
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: And this number's been hovering between 6.5 and 7 here.
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: You know, I mean, whatever you're going to do with
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: this game, you should get the best number that you can, right? Like,
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: if you're going to get New Orleans, you should try
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: to get 7.5 if it's ever out there. If you're
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: going to play Detroit, I would try to lay the 6.5
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: if I could. It looks like it might be a 7, though,
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: which if it's right on 7, I guess you could
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: argue for going either way with this. I don't have
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: a strong opinion on this. The money is coming in
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: on Detroit. Detroit is good at home, and Dan Campbell
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: is kind of known for not calling off the dogs,
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: and he runs up the score. I just don't have
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: a great opinion on the side here, man.
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: I just don't.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: I think both teams... I like both teams here this time.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: New Orleans might actually have the better defense here. Their
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: defense was sneakily pretty good last year, and the Rothfuss
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: started to come around. I think Shuck is actually going
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: to be a decent quarterback. I think the over might
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: be a better way to look in this game. The
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: total's fairly high, 49.5-50, and the money is coming in
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: on the over there, and that might be my lean
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: in that one. As far as the pick, because I
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: have to pick every side. I have to pick all
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: these things in my pick-up pools, and I have to
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: do a pick five as well, but of course, the
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: Splash one didn't allow me to pick either of the
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: first two games, which is bad, because I'm going to
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: have to choose between all these games here. I don't
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: think this one's making the cut for me, though, at all.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: But if I have to pick a game... If I
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: have to pick this game, it might just completely depend
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: on the number. If you're giving me 6.5, I might
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: lay it with Detroit. If you're giving me 7.5, I
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: might pick New Orleans. That's how little of an opinion
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: I have on the side in that game. I might
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: just take the side that's giving me the numeric value
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: in whatever game it is. Zach, what's up? Oh, yes,
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: the Royals. They're bad, but the Red Sox are not
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: playing well right now. Jets-Tennessee, this is actually an opinion
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: that I think is a little bit stronger for me
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: on CBS. I think the opinion on the Jets coming
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: into the season is way too low. People seem to
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: be kind of hyping up Tennessee a little bit. Oh,
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: it's Cam Ward's second season. He's going to be better.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: Is he, though? I mean, when I talked to Clint,
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: I said he did okay in the first season, but
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: they didn't win that many games, and I was never
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: really that high on Cam Ward. Coming out of college,
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: I never really thought he was going to be that good.
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: Tennessee, they have a new coach here now, too, Salah.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: So usually that means growing pains. The new coach has
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: to kind of implement his system, whatever. Of course, he
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: knows the Jets, kind of, because he was there with
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: the Jets not too long ago. But the Jets are
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: at least keeping their coach, Aaron Glenn. And the Jets,
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: they did get a couple of guys over the offseason.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: They got a couple of guys to make their defense better.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: And they got Geno Smith, of course. So the Jets' offense,
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: which was putrid last year, it should be better. Okay,
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: they got Geno Smith, they got Garrett Wilson, they got
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: Brees Hall. This is an offense that has some good
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: players on it. So I think the Jets might actually
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: be better than people think. So I like the Jets
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: in this game. I think the public is too low
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: on them and they're not going to want to do anything.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: Of course, I mentioned with Clint that the Jets, I
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: think I said they didn't have any takeaways last year.
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: I think that might not be true.
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: I think it was just the interceptions. The Jets didn't
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: have any interceptions last year, which is still impossible. It's
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: unheard of. But that type of variance... I mean, yeah,
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: it means... Some of it is because your defense isn't
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: good enough at ball hawking and whatever. But still, there's
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: variance there. There's no way that's going to happen to
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: the Jets again. Zero interceptions is ridiculous. If the Jets
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: get any decent number of interceptions this year, they're going
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: to win more games than they did last year. So yeah,
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: I like the Jets in this one. I don't think
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: the money's really agreeing with me. Tennessee opened one and
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: a half, and it's kind of stayed that way. The
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: money's hard to read here. 53% of tickets, 54% of
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: the cash on Tennessee. The total is ridiculous, 38 and
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: a half. I think this is the lowest total on
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: the board here. This is supposed to be one ugly
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: game here. The Jacksonville total might actually be lower. Let
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: me see, which is because Cleveland's offense is pathetic. No,
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: this one's even lower. Jets-Tennessee. Money's coming in on the
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: under in this one. It's supposed to be a hideous game,
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: but yeah, I'm going to lean Jets in that one.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: All right. Let's see here. Baltimore, Indianapolis. This one almost
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: made the cut for me. This is one of my
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: strongest opinions of the week, although it did not make
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: my card here. I like Indianapolis against Baltimore here. They're
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: a home underdog here. I feel like Baltimore is getting
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: a bit too much hype here and they got a
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: new coach in there. So they're going to be instituting
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: a new system and that can take time. They got
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: Jesse Minter, who I believe was the defensive coordinator of
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: the chargers. And by the way, when he was the
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: DC on the chargers last year, Indianapolis went out to
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: LA and what did they do to the chargers? Oh yeah.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: They put up 38 points against them. So Minter, uh,
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: his defense did not do well against this Indy offense
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: last year. Now Indy did lose a couple of their guys.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: They lost, uh, Pittman, and I forget, they might have
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: lost some other guy in their offense, but still, Daniel
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: Jones will be back. And Indianapolis, they were a really
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: good offense behind Jones last year, so they might be
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: able to kind of get some of that back. I
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: think people mostly remember, oh yeah, Indianapolis was terrible down
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: the stretch, but if you forget, they were 8-1. to
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: start the season. And then Jones got hurt and then
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: they lost literally every remaining game. And they brought in
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: grandfather Phillip rivers and it was fun, but they didn't
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: win any more games. They covered for me in at
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: least one of those games. Uh, the one against Seattle,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure, but whatever. Um, I think Baltimore is
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: too overhyped right now. I do think Baltimore is going
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: to be a good team this year. I think both
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: of these teams might wind up being better this year
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: than what they were last year. I think Baltimore is
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: going to make the playoffs. Let's put it that way.
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: But I don't think they should be laying three and
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: a half in week one on the road. I think
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: week one, I'd have to look it up, but I
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: think there are some trends that support home underdogs in
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: week one as well.
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: Uh, so I do like Indian.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: That one is probably going to have to go in
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: my pick five at the very least because I don't
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: really have that many options. So I do like Indianapolis
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: in that one. And the money does agree with that.
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: 61% of tickets on Baltimore, 59% of the cash on Indy.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: So I think that's one of the stronger opinions here.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: Um, yeah.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Um, right.
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: So that's, yeah.
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: The quarterback requires having a higher IQ.
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: Um, Although Ryan Fitzpatrick had one of the highest, and
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: he was not the best quarterback. He was good, though.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: I like him. Atlanta at Pittsburgh. Now, you'll notice that
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: this line has moved from Pittsburgh opening a two-point favorite.
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: It was sitting around three-and-a-half, four, and then it shot
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: up to six because Atlanta... First, Atlanta announced that Tua
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: was going to start. Now Tua's hurt, and now Atlanta
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: is announcing their, because Penix, I guess, is hurt as well.
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's going to start Cooper Rush in this game. So
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: now the line is six. I think it's an overreaction, though.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: I like Atlanta. Plus the points in this one. Nobody's
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: going to want Atlanta here with how bad their quarterback
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: room looks. Atlanta was one of the laughingstocks of preseason.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: Preseason you should just ignore. Or if anything, you should
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: take teams that look bad in preseason because people won't
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: want to take them. Or play against teams that look
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: too good in preseason, but whatever. Pittsburgh, I don't know, man.
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers I don't think played at all. during preseason
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: he's got a new coach McCarthy even though I know
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: he played with McCarthy on Green Bay but Rodgers I
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: would have gotten him into one of those preseason games
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: at least to get him some reps that hasn't happened
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: so Pittsburgh might start slow and you're asking him to
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: cover a six point spread now and nobody's gonna want
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: Atlanta like who the hell is Cooper Rush you know
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: what I mean but Rush he's got experience I mean
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: he's started NFL games before and He's been good in
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: some of them and not so good in others, but
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: I think he can kind of hold his own out there,
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: and he can at least cover for you as a
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: six-point dog here. I'm not sure that Pittsburgh's offense is
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: going to be that prolific, even though I like Rodgers.
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: I loved Rodgers' interview the other day where he was
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: leaving no stone unturned, let's say, talking about everything, the
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: vaccine stuff, which he was, of course, correct about, and
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: the talking about his exes and talking about a whole
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: bunch of stuff. I believe it was on Cam Hayward's podcast,
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: who I thought was still a player for Pittsburgh, but
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: maybe I'm wrong about that. I don't know, but I
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: think Atlanta is just getting too much hate here, even
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: though I'm not high on Atlanta this year. I don't
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: think they're good, and I think Atlanta should start Jack Strand,
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: a quarterback. I think they should just do it. If
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: you're Atlanta, what do you have to lose at this point?
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Your top two quarterbacks are done.
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: All right, you're going to go with Cooper Rush just
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: because that's the safe option because he's played in NFL
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: games before with Baltimore and with Dallas and whatever. I
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: would start Strand. I think Strand is the best quarterback
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: Atlanta has. I hope we see him this year. We might.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I would take the points with Atlanta. It's
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: also not a high total in that game. 41.5, 40.5,
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: so it makes taking the points a little bit more enticing.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: I do like that one. But in my pick five game,
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: the number in that game is going to be like
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: four and a half because those numbers locked before the
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: quarterback change.
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: Next game up is my play, so you get a
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: play in the 1 p.m.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: Slate here. You know, there's no team that I hate
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: more than the Chicago Bears. And you know I was
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: fading them a bunch last year and we lost a
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: couple of those games. The Bears kept pulling wins out
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: of their ass, man. Like how many close comeback wins
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: did the Bears have last year? It's not going to
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: keep happening. And the Bears, I believe, led the league
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: in turnover differential last year, which... When teams do that,
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: the next year they usually regress big time in turnover differential. Yeah,
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: the Bears have a ball-hocking defense, but their defense is
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: not good. Their defense gives them a lot of yards,
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: a lot of points, and they were saving their own
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: asses with all the takeaways they had last year, but
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of randomness in that, so I don't
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: think the Bears are going to be... anywhere near as good.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: I gave them out under their season win total, under
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: I believe it was 9.5, although I think you might
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: be able to get 10 on that right now. I
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: don't think the Bears are going to be anywhere near
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: what they did last year. And, of course, I'm still
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: pissed about a couple of the plays I gave out
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: against them last year. The Giants blew a lead against
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: them and didn't even cover. And then the worst one
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: was the fucking playoff game, Green Bay, blowing like an
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: insurmountable lead in that game. whatever. Maybe it's because I'm
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: biased and I'm pissed, but I still think this is
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: the right move. The public is all over Chicago because
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: they think, Chicago was so good last year. They're going
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: to take another step forward, man. This year, Caleb Williams, whatever. No, no,
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: this defense is bad. I don't think Caleb Williams is
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: that good. Um, I keep saying Tyson Bajent, their backup
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: is actually a better QB than, than, uh, Caleb Williams.
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: I stick by that. I think he is.
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: He looked awesome in preseason again.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: Um, But whatever. Carolina, I think, is just way under
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: the radar. Even though Carolina actually won their division last year.
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: It was a crap division, and they got knocked out
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: of the playoffs by the Rams. But people seem to
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: forget Carolina actually played well in that game, if you
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: remember correctly. They were a double-digit dog hosting the Rams,
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: and they almost won that game. People seem to forget
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: about that. So Carolina's not as bad as people think
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: they are.
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: And yeah, they lost Dowdle over to the Steelers, whatever.
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: Carolina's still got some good players around Bryce Young, and
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: Bryce Young might take another step in his evolution here.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: Maybe he'll not be too bad here, and he's got
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: some good receivers on this team. They have some decent
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: running backs there. Carolina's defense, I think, is actually not
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: horrific either. I think it's the better defense here. I
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: think Chicago is one of the bottom five defenses in
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: the NFL.
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: They are not good. So I think we're getting the
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: better defense, and it's a home underdog.
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: As I mentioned, I like home underdogs in Week 1,
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: but I think Chicago might be one of the most
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: over hyped, overvalued teams after what they did last year.
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: They're extremely public, 81% of tickets and cash here. The
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: three is abundant. So I think you'd definitely find a
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: three on Carolina. You can get on that key number here.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: The total is not too high, at least a 47
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: and a half, but yeah, I like Carolina and this one,
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: I like Chicago to lose some games this year. Um,
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: and maybe they'll start out with this one, but we're
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: going to take Carolina plus three. I like it. Um, Yes. Yeah,
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: let's get this win with that one. Yeah, that's right.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: The Bears are going to Gary, Indiana. But Indianapolis is
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: already there, man. You already have Daniel Jones as Indiana Jones.
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: All right. Cleveland and Jacksonville on CBS. This is going
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: to be a very popular survivor pick, and it might
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: be mine. Because Jacksonville has a pretty difficult schedule this year.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: I think Jacksonville is a team that's taking a step
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: back this year, too, though. They won their division last year.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: I said that I thought they would, actually, last year.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: Because I thought they were kind of a wild card
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: last year. Liam Cohen coached year one. They make the playoffs.
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: But I think it was a little bit of a fluke,
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: to be honest. I'm still not sold on Jacksonville's defense.
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: I think their offense does have a lot of good
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: players on it. But they also have a really difficult
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: schedule this year because they won the division last year.
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: This game shouldn't be that difficult against Cleveland, but week
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: one is very bizarre. So we'll see, but I might
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: be using Jacksonville as my survivor, but I do not
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: like them to cover this number. 71% of tickets, 70%
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. They're about an 8.5-point favorite now,
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: and the total is really low, 39.5. You know I
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: like taking big dogs when there's a low total. So Cleveland,
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: even though they lost Miles Garrett to the Rams, their
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: defense is still getting some love here from the— from
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: the odds, because I think the odds makers are basically
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: saying Cleveland's got a good defense with their offenses.
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: Ass.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: Um, they have Deshaun Watson as their quarterback, which I
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: think he is their best quarterback. I, he, maybe he's
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: not that good, but he's better than Schroeder Sanders who
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: might be out of the NFL shortly. And Dylan Gabriel,
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: even though he looked good in the last preseason game,
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's that good either. Um, So I
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: think it's the right move for Cleveland to go with Watson,
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: but they're going to need another quarterback or something. Watson
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: at least does have some experience. He's been out of
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: the league for a while, though, because of the massages
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: that he was getting, but whatever. I think Jacksonville's just
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: overhyped after last year, man, so I'm going to leave
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: Cleveland plus the points here, I think. The money seems
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: like it does support that. With the public on Jacksonville,
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: less of the money on them, which I think I
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: already said. 71% of tickets, 70% of the cash on them.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: Cleveland would be the lean in that game for May.
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: Money's also back in the under in that game, so
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: it's expected to not be a high-scoring game. Which is
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: a little bit worrisome when it's a survivor pick, potentially.
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? You might have to deal
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: with an ugly game, and Jacksonville would need to escape
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: in that game. Now, the Splash Survivor, then, also has
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: multiple multi-pick weeks, which I hate. It's to weed out
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: the field faster, but it's annoying. Week 1 is not
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: one of them, though. But for Week 1, I mean,
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: Jacksonville is getting picked a lot. The Chargers are getting
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: picked the most, and... other than that, people are trying
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: to be cute. People are picking Pittsburgh, uh, Philadelphia and
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: the Raiders, uh, is a cute pick from people, but
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: I don't think I'd really want to do it. Um,
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: It would take more than balls. I think it would
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: actually take stupidity, honestly, to take the Raiders and Survivor
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: this week, even though this is your only chance to
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: take them. They're going to be an underdog, I think,
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: in every other game this season. Anyway, Buffalo at Houston,
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: which is kind of the big game at 1 p.m.,
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: the game that everybody's kind of hyping. I guess Tampa
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: Bay-Cincinnati will be the game that people want to watch
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: because it's high-scoring.
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: But Buffalo-Houston's a big game, 2-0.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: Teams that seem to always make the playoffs, and Josh
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: Allen has not been able to get over the hump.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: He's 0-4 playing in Houston, so Josh Allen has not
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: done well in Houston, although some of those games have
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: been close, but Houston seems to just always somehow get
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: out of there with the win against Allen. Houston... They
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: got a good defense, man, and that defense seems to
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: just wind up having the upper hand against Buffalo's offense.
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: Buffalo also has a new coach this year, although, by
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: the way, Cleveland does too. So that might be a
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: reason to maybe not love Cleveland there. Maybe the Jacksonville
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: Survivor will get you there. I don't even know who
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's new coach is, to be honest, even though I
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: thought Stefanski was asked.
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: Stefanski is with Atlanta now, though, by the way.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: So Atlanta and Pittsburgh both have new coaches this year,
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: which I think does lead to growing pains here but
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: yeah Cleveland does have a new coach um do with
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: that info what you want Buffalo does have a new
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: one as well which is Brady who I think they
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: elevated in their own system after they fired McDermott I
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: think um so Buffalo might not have as many growing
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: pains but still Houston might have more continuity here I'm
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: gonna lean Houston I mean Josh Allen seems to not
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: be able to get over the hump. The public seems
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: to love the offense and love Josh Allen. 70% of tickets,
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: 69% of the cash on Buffalo. That offense is really
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: just Allen and Cook, man. They cook. They have the
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: number one quarterback and one of the best... One of
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: the best running backs there, but their wide receiver core
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: is not really that good with Buffalo. But yeah, they're
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: down from 2.5 to 1.5 here. It's basically a pick
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: the winner. The public always sides with the better offense,
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: the better QB, which is Josh Allen. Stroud, after his
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: really good rookie season, has had two not great seasons
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: in a row, which I kind of expected because a
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: lot of times these... breakout rookies a lot of times
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: they fade in the next season which I think is
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: possibly happening to Jane Daniels too even though it was
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: injuries that really did him in last year but I
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: still think it might be happening to him too like
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: the league just kind of figures him out like that
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: year one sometimes the league just doesn't know what that
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: offense is going to look like with that rookie QB
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: but once they go through the league once in the
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: league kind of figures them out maybe that's what happened
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: to you know Stroud whatever but I like Houston's defense
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: a lot here and Houston's going to be one of
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: the best defenses again unless something really crazy happens. And
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: the money's coming in on the under, and I think
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: the side and total are correlated in this one. I
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: think Buffalo is correlated to this game going over. I
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: think Houston is correlated to it going under because it's
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: kind of simplified as offense versus defense in this game. But, yeah,
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: I like Houston in that one. We have not seen
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen be able to get over the hump yet there,
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: and the public seems to want Buffalo there. Although I've
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: heard some professionals wanting Houston there, maybe too many of
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: them wanting Houston there. As we move to the 4 p.m.
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: slate here, Eastern, on Fox, Miami, and Vegas, the worst
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: game of the weekend, perhaps. Some people, like I said,
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: they're going to take the shot with Vegas as they're
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: a survivor. I don't love it, man. I think Vegas
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: has one of the weakest home advantages in all of
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: football because what do they do? Vegas is a tourist city, man,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: so that's the problem with Vegas. playing there is that
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: half the crowd roots for the opposing team. That's what
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: happens in Vegas. Fans of the opposing team will intentionally
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: make a trip out to Vegas and be like, hey,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: let's have a trip to Vegas. We'll do some gambling
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: and we'll watch our football team play in Vegas. That's
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: what they do. So almost half the crowd, every single
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: game is rooting for the opponent. And Miami, I don't
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: know how great their fan base is, but maybe they'll
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: travel here. Although I know, you know, I was watching
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: the Miami Hurricanes 30 for 30 recently because it's going
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: to drop off of Netflix soon. There are two, actually,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: but I watched the OG one, which, by the way,
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: I think the music usage in that one is stupid.
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: But the documentary is interesting nonetheless. And basically throughout the 80s,
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: the fans of Miami, the football fans, were rooting for
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: the college. team and not the Miami Dolphins, which kind
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: of surprised me. I'm like, really? But the Dolphins had
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: Dan Marino, and they made one Super Bowl and whatever.
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. Weird.
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: I thought Miami wasn't bad through that stretch.
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: Maybe I'm wrong.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: Maybe.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know, because I remember Marino was still playing
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: when I was a kid, but I thought it was
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: mostly 80s.
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: Whatever.
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: Miami at Vegas here.
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: Miami, of course, has Malik Willis as their quarterback now.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: I think people undervalue Willis, though. I thought he looked
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: pretty good as Green Bay's backup. He's a dual-threat quarterback,
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: so he might throw a wrench into what the defenses
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: are going to try to do against him. But Miami's
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: got new everything, man. They got new coaches. They lost
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: Tyreek Hill, who I think is just no longer in
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: the league because he's a criminal. And Waddle, they also
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: lost him. Waddle is on Denver now. So Miami, they're
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: like cleaning house. And they lost Mike McDaniel, who is
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: now the offensive coordinator for the Chargers, I want to say.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: Did I get that right? A lot of guys moving
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: all over the place, man. And he was much better
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: as an OC, by the way. I think that's where
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: he is. So Miami, I don't even know who their
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: new coach is. They got a new coach. They're going
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: with Malik Willis. They have Quinn Ewers as their backup
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: quarterback in case they wind up switching QBs.
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: He's the Texas QB.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: They drafted before last season, and he might not be
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: that good. The Raiders, of course, drafted Mendoza this year,
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: but he's not going to play right away. They're going
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: with Kirk Cousins, who is a very experienced quarterback, but old.
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: I like Cousins, though. I saw him in the QB
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: documentary or whatever. I like him. He's got a nice
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: Christian family.
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: He's got his wife and his kids. I don't know.
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: I like Cousins' vibe, man. So I'm rooting for him
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: to do well. I was rooting for him to get
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: a starting job. Again, he's got it for now with Vegas.
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: But what do we do with this game? I have
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: no clue. Honestly, I have no idea. I mean, these
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: teams are... terrible and like i mean i don't think
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: either team's going to be good miami is expected to
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: be one of the worst teams in the entire league
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: along with arizona vegas and the jets and cleveland even
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: are actually all supposed to be a little bit better
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: than miami vegas is public 68 of tickets and cash
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: on them like i said i think some people are
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: trying to get cute and play them in survivor i
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: don't know man they are a three-point favorite here A
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: game like this where you just have no clue what's
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: going to happen. I mean, maybe the underdog makes sense.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: Just take the points when you have no idea. And again,
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: I don't think Vegas is a very good home team.
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: I don't think they get anything for home advantage, although
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: the oddsmakers probably also know that. But yeah, the home
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: crowd is not great for Vegas. They need to start
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: playing better, and then maybe they will get a better
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: home crowd, because their hockey team does have a good
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: home crowd. The Golden Knights, so I don't know. Total's
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: low in that game, too, at 40, so if you're
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: taking the points there, it's expected to be kind of
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: an ugly game, like I was kind of insinuating, so
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: It's going to be maybe tough for either team to
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: get any sort of margin in that one. Miami, or
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: excuse me, Green Bay and Minnesota on CB. How is
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: this on CB? I don't even know what's going on anymore, man.
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: I'm a child of the 90s, man. Well, I was
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: born in the 80s, but I grew up through the 90s,
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: and I remember Fox men in an NFC game, CBS
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: men in an AFC game. That's just the way that
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: it was, but that's apparently not the case anymore. Green Bay, Minnesota,
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: big divisional matchup here. The game's in Minnesota. These teams, yeah,
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: they seem to play a lot of pretty close games
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: against each other. Green Bay, of course, was the better
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: team last year and made the playoffs, but I think
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: the public is going to be on Green Bay here.
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: You know, everybody knows they got Jordan Love. I think people,
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: including myself, are not high on Minnesota this year with
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: Kyler Murray in there now. He's better than J.J. McCarthy,
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: at least.
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: They had the J.J.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: McCarthy experiment last year, which did not go well, and
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: they used Carson Wentz for a while. He is still there,
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: by the way. But Kyler Murray, I mean, I don't
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: think he's a good QB, and I think he's too short,
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: so he can't see over his linemen. He is a
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: dual threat, at least. He didn't really do that well
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: with Arizona. Never panned out there, so I'm not high
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: on Minnesota. I still think they are the worst team
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: in this division. I could be proven wrong, though. And
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: it seems like the money is backing Minnesota in this one.
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: And it's basically a pick the winner price here. So
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: the odds makers actually seem to think these teams don't
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: have that much separating them. And remember Green Bay is
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: without Josh Jacobs right now because of Ray rising out there. Basically,
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: I think he assaulted some women or something. So Josh
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: Jacobs is, um, Not going to be playing. He's on
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: the commissioner exempt list. He's on my fantasy team, by
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: the way. I picked him up really cheap in my
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: auction draft. I'm like, fuck it. If he comes back,
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: I'm going to have a high-level running back for really cheap,
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: so why not? Because I do have other running backs
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: right now, so as long as they don't get hurt.
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: But yeah, Jacobs, no idea when he's going to come back,
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: but he's not playing right now. So Green Bay is
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: going with an unknown player. running back Marshawn Lloyd, not
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: Marshawn Lynch, not Beast Mode, who, Marshawn Lynch is now
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: like an actor, and I don't know what the fuck
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: that guy's doing now, a lot of different things, but
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: he's in that movie Bottoms, I was like, what the fuck,
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: Marshawn Lynch is the teacher in this movie, that is
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: a weird movie, really, really weird, it's an absurdist comedy,
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: I would say, anyway, Green Bay's going with Lloyd as
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: their running back for now because Jacobs isn't there.
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: How much of a drop-off is that?
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: I have no clue.
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: Like, is Green Bay just.
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: Going to have no rushing attack here and it's going
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: to force Jordan Love to do everything? I don't know. Maybe.
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: But Minnesota's got to get used to having a new
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: QB there, so Murray's got to kind of learn the
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: new system. Although O'Connell, that's his name, right? I think
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: I call him Mick Connell. Sometimes I accident. Kevin O'Connell,
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's coach, the very tall man there.
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: He's a good coach, I will say that.
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: Even though Green Bay, I don't know, I have my issues.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: I think Green Bay still has LaFleur, right? I have
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: some issues with him, but the money is indicating on
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: Minnesota in this game. Long story short, they flipped to
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: a favorite, actually. Green Bay was a one-and-a-half-point favorite. I
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: don't know if it's just because of the Jacobs injury.
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: Jacobs on his own is not a four-point move, though,
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: so I think some real money might have moved this line.
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: Or it might have been because Minnesota decided on their quarterback.
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but Minnesota's like a One to two
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: point favorite here. 63% of tickets, 52% of the cash
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: on Green Bay. I'll lean Minnesota here. I mean, that's
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: what the money is saying, what the market read is saying.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: I think Green Bay, yeah, I mean, maybe they're a
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: little bit too public in this one. It'll be a
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: heated divisional game at least. All right, Washington and Philadelphia.
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: Divisional matchup here, of course. Now, divisional underdogs actually do well.
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: I should point out, although I don't really consider Minnesota
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: or Green Bay to be that much of an underdog
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: because that's like a pick the winner type of price there.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: But if you find a divisional dog in week one,
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: like the 49ers the other day, that's like three and
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: a half or more, they tend to do well in
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: week one. However, I do not like Washington in this
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: game against Philly. I think Philly is a little bit
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: under the radar right now, man. But what does Philly
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: have that's different? Philly's been a good team. They've been
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: winning this division every year. They lost A.J. Brown to
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: New England, and he's now hurt, but he wanted out anyway.
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: And Philly's offense wasn't even really that good last year anyway.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: So what is Philly really losing? Are they really downgrading
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: that much here? I don't know. I mean, I don't
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: think Hurts is that good, but he's still there. They
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: still got Devontae Smith. They still got Barkley. They still
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: got weapons on offense. Sirianni's still their coach. Whatever. I'm
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: not sold on Washington. Like I said, Jaden Daniels, I
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: think his rookie season maybe was like Stroud's. It might
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: have been a flash in the pan. He looks like
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: he's injury prone. The public seems to like Washington to
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: some extent. And think that they're going to, oh, Daniels,
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: you know, he was injured last year. Yeah, that's true.
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: He's back now. So it seems like people think Washington's
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: offense is just going to be better again. I don't
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: really think so. I don't know. Their running back situation
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: is kind of a mess. Like none of them have
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: really panned out. Debo Samuel's back on the 49ers. So
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: what do they have for wide receivers? They have Terry McLaurin.
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's good, but I don't know, man. I
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: don't like Washington here. Philly's the better team, and there's
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: a reason why Philly is laying as many points as
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: they are here. They're up from four to six now, though.
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: So if you like Philly, you kind of missed some
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: of the better numbers here, although it's at five and
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: a half now. I still think I would probably lay
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: it if I was going to play this game, and
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: the money is kind of agreeing. 66% of tickets, 85%
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Philly. I don't see Washington's defense
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: being that improved either, and their defense has been pretty
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: lousy over the last couple of years. I don't know, man.
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: Not a huge Dan Quinn fan, really, the coach of
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: Washington there, so he is still there, but whatever. I
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: like Philly. I think they definitely have the better defense, Philly.
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: People seem to forget, like, oh, yeah, Philly, you know,
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: they exited early in the playoffs last year. Kind of
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: weird they got upset by the 49ers. I think I
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: lost a play on that one, too. I don't know.
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: I'm not that high on Philly, but I still think
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: that they... are kind of a little bit undervalued coming
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: into this season after dropping out of the playoffs the
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: way they did last year. So, I mean, we're still
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: talking about a team that made the Super Bowl multiple
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: times within the last, like, four years. So, you know,
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: it's not like this Philly team is some sort of, like,
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: bad team or whatever. Even down A.J. Brown now.
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: Dirty Sock, what's up?
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out. Young has the same haircut as
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: Top Lobster.
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, basically.
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: What do you mean? What are you talking about? 10
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: subscriptions to watch what? Oh, to watch all the NFL games.
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah.
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: You need a subscription with all these different things. Well,
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: if you have TV, you'll be able to watch every... Well, no,
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: you won't.
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: Be able to watch every single one of these games
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: because it's all going to be localized, right?
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: What am I saying? But yeah, you need NFL Sunday ticket, basically, or...
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: I have Red Zone, which used to be pretty good,
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: but Disney took it over and kind of ruined it,
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: and it has ads now, so that pisses me off.
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: Because Red Zone was kind of the way to watch.
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: NFL Sunday Ticket, yeah, you get to watch every single
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: game the way that you want to, but Red Zone,
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: they do a really good job focusing on the games
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: that have the action going on at any given time,
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: and they do split screens and stuff, so I think
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: Red Zone is the best way to watch. The NFL,
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: except now Disney took it over. So they're ruining one
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: of the best things, man. Arizona is at the Chargers,
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: which is the last of the 4 p.m. games here.
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: Chargers are a huge favorite. They're the biggest favorite of
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: the week. And rightfully so, probably. I think I'm high
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: on the Chargers this year. It's Harbaugh's third year. Usually
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: that third year with the new coach is usually a
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: big step up. Usually that team starts really coalescing and
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: doing well. Justin Herbert's had some injuries recently. for some
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: of these years, but I think he's healthy now. Um,
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: I don't really know about the charges, rushing attack and whatever.
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: Harbaugh does seem to like to slow the pace down.
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: That's what he does. He does slow methodical play and, um,
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: you know, likes to limit the amount of plays that
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: his defense has to play, which keeps them fresh, you
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? That's the Harbaugh mentality, which does work.
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: But in this game, is it going to help them
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: cover a 9.5 point spread? No, it's not. Because if
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: they're slowing the game down, it's going to be fewer
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: possessions in the game. That's not what you want when
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: you're laying 9.5. And I think everybody's just totally out
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: on Arizona, you know what I mean? So if I
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: had to play this game, I think I would just
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: take the points here. And it's the most popular survivor
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: pick as well with the Chargers. Do I think they're
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: going to lose? No. But I think Arizona might be
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: a little bit underrated here. Chargers, 65% of tickets, 56%
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. If you like the Arizona side, though,
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: you already lost the key number. It was 10.5, and
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: now it's 9.5. I don't think you're going to be
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: able to find a 10 on this, so that key
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: number is gone. Slight lean towards Arizona for me. The
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: money is coming in a little bit on the under,
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: although it's not a particularly low total. It's in the
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: high 40s. But Arizona, they got Jacoby Brissett as their quarterback.
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: Carson Beck seems to be waiting in the wings, but
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: I actually don't mind either of them. Brissett has a
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: lot of experience, and he's not a guy that's going
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: to light it up. You know what I mean?
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: He's not an elite quarterback by any means, but his
• 41:59
  Speaker 4: thing is.
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: He doesn't fuck you over, basically. He's a turnover-limiting, game-managing quarterback.
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: And that's kind of what you want when you're playing
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: a team that's a massive underdog. You know what I mean?
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: Just don't totally fuck up the game here. But I
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: do actually like Carson Beck, who I think is going
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: to wind up being their starter. At some point, I
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: thought he looked decent in preseason, but then he got hurt.
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: Nobody seemed to like him through college. I'm like, I
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: don't know, man. I mean, he faced SEC defenses, and
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: then he led Miami all the way to the championship game.
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: And I know he had really good lines with Miami,
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: but offensive, defensive lines. But still, he was like one
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: play away from possibly winning the championship. That's not nothing. So, yeah,
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. Beck, I thought, was one of
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: the better quarterbacks in the current class. I don't know
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: about my quarterback evaluation skills, man. That's going to bring
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: me into talking about the Giants in a second here. But, yeah,
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: Arizona plus the points, I think, is the way I
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: would look there. With the Jacoby Brissett-led Arizona, I mean,
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: he's covered as a big underdog before. I mean, that's
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: kind of what he does, actually. So, whatever. I think
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: people are maybe too low on Arizona at this point.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: Although the public seems to never be that high on
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: the Chargers, but they are in this game. And then
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: the night game, Sunday night, NBC is Dallas and the Giants.
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: Public's going to be on Dallas in this one because
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: they're Dallas. They're the Cowboys, even though they haven't been
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: that good recently. Dak Prescott's healthy right now. They have
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: a very good offense, Dallas, with Prescott, with Pickens, CeeDee Lamb.
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: They've got some really good wide receivers there. It seems
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: like they have kind of solved their running back issues
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: as well. I have Pickens and I have their running back, Williams,
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: I think, on my fantasy team. So we will see.
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: Dallas' defense, though, remains a big-time question mark. Their defense
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: was their undoing last year. That plus Dak wound up
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: getting hurt again, I'm pretty sure. Am I wrong about that?
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: I think I'm not wrong about that. We'll see.
• 43:56
  Speaker 4: But Dallas has a good offense, not a good defense.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: I think the Giants are probably the better defense here.
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: And they're a home divisional underdog. And what did I
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: say about Week 1? Divisional underdogs of a field goal
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: or more have a good history in Week 1 of covering.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: And home dogs also do. And the Giants are both
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: of those things. Now, the Giants do have a new coach.
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: They got Harbaugh there. The other Harbaugh, John Harbaugh, he
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: was with the Ravens. I think he wasn't getting along
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: with Lamar Jackson. He was just like, okay, you guys
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: can keep Lamar. I'm out. Now he's at the Giants here.
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: It's going to be really interesting, man. I have no
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: idea what the Giants are going to look like this year.
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: I should because I potentially do that podcast related to them.
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: I like Jackson Dart, man. I'm still high on him.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: Scataboo is back. Both of those guys seem to get
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: concussions all the time, though. They seem to just take
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: way too many hits. We'll see, but it could be
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: an interesting offense, man. Remember Malik Neighbors also was hurt.
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: Their best wide receiver, he's back as well, so this
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: is a Giants offense that's going to look different here.
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: And we'll see. I mean, there might be some growing
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: pains there because they got to learn Harbaugh's system. And
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: we'll see. But I think he should improve the team.
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: I think they should gradually improve. Will they be able
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: to do this in week one, though, and cover as
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: a three-point dog? I think maybe. I think I kind
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: of lean that way, at least for now. But remember,
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: I'm going to do my final market read tomorrow before
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: I actually make all my pick-em picks. 72% of tickets,
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: 83% of the cash on Dallas, though. So the money
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: is kind of indicating on Dallas right now, although they
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: are public. The money is coming in on the over
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: in this game. Over 48.5, expected to be kind of
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: high scoring, which.
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: it makes sense.
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: Like a Dallas game generally profiles as a high scoring
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: game because it's really good offense on their side and
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: really bad defense on their side. We will say, uh,
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: but I think I'd prefer to take the three with, uh,
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: with New York and this one, man. Um, I think
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: that's what I would do. The giants, uh, you know,
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: when they were somewhat healthy last year, they did an
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: okay job as home underdogs. So last year, I remember
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: I had them against the chargers in that one game.
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: That was a nice win for us on the show
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: last year. Nobody wanted them in that game. Um, And
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: then the Monday night game, I guess I'll talk about
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: it because it's one of my plays. I'll probably reiterate
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: it on Monday. But the ESPN Monday night game, Denver
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: at Kansas City. I like Kansas City in this one, man.
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: I think we should do it.
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: It's a play for me.
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: Hold on a second here. No. StreamYard's like messing up.
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: It's not letting me bring up the thing. I wanted
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: this show to be quicker, but this is the last game.
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: We're going to lay the two and a half with
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: Kansas City or... you might be able to get even
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: a better number on this, but at least it's below
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: a field goal. Or if you want to do the
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: money line, you could do that. I say we do it, ma'am.
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: I think everybody's too low on the chiefs right now. Um,
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: after they didn't make the playoffs last year. Well, yeah,
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: my home's got hurt and the chiefs seem to lose
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: all of their games against good teams. So, okay.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: They lost to Denver, uh, both games last year. I'm
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: pretty sure. So it's double revenge for Kansas city. Um,
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: So I think Kansas City would be a little extra
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: motivated because they lost both games to Denver last year.
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: But Mahomes didn't play in one of them. I'm pretty
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: sure the home game, Mahomes home, I'm pretty sure the
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: home game for Kansas City, Mahomes did not play, if
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken. He's back now, though. Mahomes is back,
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: and we kind of forget this is a Kansas City
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: team that was making the Super Bowl every year up
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: until pretty much last year, so is Kansas City going
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: to have that much of a drop-off? I don't think so. Plus,
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: they got Kenneth Walker now, and Kansas City, one of
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: their main problems was they didn't have a rushing attack. Well,
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: now they do. They got a beast running back, and
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: they got some talented wide receivers with Rice, Worthy, whatever, so...
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: I think Kansas City is going to be better than
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: they were last year. I mean, I don't see how
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: they couldn't be. I almost gave out Kansas City's win
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: total over as one of my win total plays. Didn't
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: quite do it, but the other one that I gave
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: out was the New England under, which is why I
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: haven't mentioned it on this show. I mentioned the Bears
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: under and the Lions over. The other one was the
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: New England under, and they were already 0-1, so there
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: you go.
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: But, yeah, I like Kansas City to get this one, man.
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: Also... Pat Mahomes, I believe he's 7-0 against Denver at home.
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: So Denver has not been able to beat Denver. Pat
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: Mahomes in Arrowhead. And I believe Pat Mahomes is something
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: like 13-4 or something against Denver overall. I posted it
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: on Twitter. I forget what it is. He has a
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: very significant winning record against Denver. And like I said,
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure it's 7-0 in Arrowhead against Denver. So
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: Denver has not beaten Mahomes here. Yeah, so that means
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: I'm right. It was not Mahomes quarterbacking Kansas City in
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: their home game that they lost to Denver last year
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: it was not Mahomes playing in that game because he
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: would have a loss on his record he does not
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: Denver yeah they're a good defense they're well coached with
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: Sean Payton there whatever both teams are very well coached
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: here Andy Reid we know whatever and yeah Travis Kelsey
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: is probably not gonna be that much of a factor
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: this year he's old but whatever Kansas City I still
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: think their defense is gonna be all right it's been
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: good for, you know, the last however many years now.
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: So I don't see that really changing that much either.
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: So I think this is going to be a little
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: bit of a defensive game here. Yeah, Denver's defense is good,
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: but also people are forgetting, oh, Mahomes is coming back
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: from injury. What is it going to look like? Well,
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: guess who else is coming back? back from injury Bo
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: Nix he got hurt but it was because it was
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs so it's like people forget he got
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: hurt but he's coming back from injury too and he's
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: not a veteran like Mahomes is so I don't know
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: man I like Mahomes better in this spot. Denver, they
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: had an easy schedule last year, so I think there's
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: going to be a little bit of regression out of
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: Denver this year. I had them in third place in
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: this division because I think the Chiefs and the Chargers
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: are both something to contend with here, man. I think
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: people are too down on the Chiefs, and Denver's looking
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: like they're going to be a dreaded public underdog, and
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: not only that, but in one of the most bet
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: games of the week, you know this is going to
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: be one of the most bet games of the week,
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: because it's Monday night, and it's a big divisional matchup,
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: and it's kind of popular teams going up against each
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: other here. 64% of tickets, 63% of the cash on Denver.
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: They're a public underdog, and you know in the NFL,
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: I like to fade in any sport, but Especially in
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: the NFL.
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: You find a public underdog. That means the most publicly
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: bet sport.
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: The NFL. The public is jumping on the team. That
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: the odds makers are telling you should lose the game.
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: So yeah. Give me the team that's supposed to win
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: the game. According to the odds makers. That the public
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: doesn't even want. Give me the Chiefs in that one.
• 50:33
  Speaker 4: And that's going to do it man. Two plays for
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: the NFL this week.
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: Big home. Well not a big dog. But the home
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: underdog with Carolina. I think we're fading the hype with
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: that one. Um, and we're going to take Kansas city
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: on the Monday night game, laying the points. If I
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: was going to add another one, I almost added Indianapolis
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: plus the points. That would be the next best play
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: that I have here. And I got to figure out
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: two more for my pick five. I have no idea
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: what they're going to be, to be honest, but that's
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: going to do it. Uh, thanks for hanging out guys.
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: Learn to tone on Twitter, learn to tone on Instagram,
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: like subscribe to this channel here. You get notified every
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: time I go live. Um, The late night shows for football.
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: We had a good day today at least. So there
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: you go. The big underdogs mostly coming through with college
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: football today. What else? Listen on audio.
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Those numbers are getting better. That all
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: helps me out.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: The last couple days they weren't that good. Covered in
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: you because my ukulele channel on YouTube. You can check
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: that out. Patreon.com slash learn to talk if you want
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: to support me that way.
• 51:34
  Speaker 4: All in the link tree, man.
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: Loser cast every Tuesday and Giants G-Spot podcast if it's happening.
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: But Ben has his birthday tomorrow, so I don't think
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: we're doing it tomorrow. Yes, good night. Thank you, everybody. Yes,
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: thank you, sir.
• 51:49
  Speaker 4: Charles Dirty Sog, I think it was just you two
• 51:51
  Speaker 4: in here, right?
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: No, Mr. Pinsey and Zach, I apologize. It's been too long, man.
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: My mind doesn't work anymore. Thank you, everybody, for hanging out.
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: Maybe the NFL show will be popular, even though I
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: do it at really awful times. Yeah, Red Zone was
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: good when it first came out. I've watched it for years.
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: I've had it for well over a decade, I think.
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: They just got bought out by Disney last year, and
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: they started putting commercials in it and stuff. It's not
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: as good, man. It's bullshit.
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: That's going to do it. I've got to get some sleep, man. BC,
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: what's up, man?
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: You missed the show, man.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: Sorry.
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: I'm out of here. Good night, everybody. I'll be back
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: in the morning, and it'll be the baseball show in
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: the morning, and I'll reiterate my one NFL play. That's
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: going to do it. Peace.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: Let somebody answer.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: Let somebody know you do not have.
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: To lose this round alone.
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: Hold on, not tonight, not now Hold on, hold on
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: Let me pull you out That bad luck bites hard
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: But it don't get the crown Hold on, hold.
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: On Stay with me now.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo