Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - URGENT: Major Changes Ahead! + Stock Market News 17 July 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - URGENT: Major Changes Ahead! + Stock Market News 17 July 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this red red red red market day.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: What we're going to do here is sit down, analyze why is everything down, why is this happening and how do we make money out of it and hang on.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Why are we not streaming?
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: All right, there we are, we're live.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: I just thought we were offline for a second.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: So if you look at pre-market here, let me show you the damage you probably noticed.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Your portfolio is doing the same thing.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: But if we sit down, we understand the two reasons that are driving this.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: This morning we can actually make money today and if you look at our portfolio here, it is.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: We're up very nicely $8,300 on open trades on a 30k portfolio.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Right, because we've got things in there that are actually making money.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: And by the end of this little session here, I want you to feel the same way and be confident and happy that things are going down.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: So first things first, we started our masterclass of yesterday.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: It was tremendous fun.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: If you want to join us for day two and day three of the masterclass, which is the real meaty stuff, and learn how we're up $16,000 realized profits stuff, and learn how we're up $16,000 realized profits Plus there's about the moment there is about $8,000 in unrealized profits, and that is all on a $30,000 teaching portfolio that I run.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: So we're doing quite nicely, right.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: We're up somewhere between 50 to 70%, depending on whether you count the unrealized.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: I tend not to.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: So go to fredixfriendsorg slash masterclass and grab yourself a free seat for day two and day three, which is where we really get into the execution part.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Now there is the Biden story here today, which is around restricting chip exports much, much more than presently to China.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: That's one story.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: We get to that.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: But then there is also Trump's interview today with Bloomberg, where he laid out his economic policies, his tax policies, his tariff policies, and all of this is massively shifting the market and where we should be positioning money.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: So by the end of the next 10 minutes or so, hopefully, you will be better informed than everybody else out there, which is really the plan here.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: So let me walk you through the Trump plans and then I'll walk you through the current Biden plans for chip exports and, again, how we make money out of that.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: So, with regards to sanctions, he says I don't love sanctions, but he likes tariffs, and he refers to William McKinley, who apparently raised enough money through tariffs, he could not have an income tax.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: So we're definitely going to get tariffs, and I'll go into a bit more detail in how much.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: But who is this good for?
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Who is this bad for?
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: I think that's kind of something we should be looking at so it's clear in everybody's heads.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: So who is this good for?
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Well, in theory, this should be good for US manufacturers because you have less competition.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: So that could be anybody, from you know your Ford to your industrial suppliers, to your I don't know your Caterpillar, your caterpillar, your deer, all those kind of companies that make stuff in the US and are competing with overseas stuff.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: For them, this could be good.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Now, it could also, of course, be rather ugly for quite a lot of other people.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Apple, for example, basically makes all their products in China.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: A lot of tech companies, so a lot of tech, chips, electronics.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: And then don't get me started on retail right and I'm talking, you know Walmart, and if you ever looked at an origin label in Walmart of late or any of those kind of shops, right, majority of products comes from China, especially, of course, the technology stuff.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Right, majority of products comes from China, especially, of course, the technology stuff.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: So that would have a negative effect on those.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: So this already tells you something here about, maybe, where we should be shifting what we're currently investing in.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: If you believe a Trump presidency is going to come true, and I ask you with that, forget about the politics.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Forget about whether you like or loathe this kind of lack, and you get this.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: This is about making smart decisions to make money.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: So whenever I make a video on Trump or whatever, it's not because I like the guy or loathe the guy.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: I really don't care.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I just care about what are the smart decisions to take here today to make our money work better for us.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: As to the Fed, he's going to allow Powell to serve as term out.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: That's good for the market.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: So that's a red tick, but that's good for the market because that gives us stability.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: We're not going to be faced with a new Fed chair on day one and we'd have to worry about what he does.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: So that's just good news.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: And at the moment, this is good for small caps because we think rates are going to come down, particularly we talk about small caps a bit more in a moment what the smart moves there are right now and what analysts like Tom Lee and so on, have just said he's also going to lower the corporate tax rate to possibly 15%.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: So who's this good for?
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Well, pretty much all companies right, particularly, I would say, financials.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: I would say it would be particularly good for them.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: They pay quite a lot of tax, anybody who pays a lot of tax.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: So any of the big stocks you've got in your whole portfolio, have a look.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: How much money do they pay in corporate tax?
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: It's very easy, you can just Google it.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: How much money did Apple pay in corporate tax?
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: They'll tell you.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: If it's a lot, it's particularly positive for them.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: He's not going to ban TikTok.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: And why not?
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Because he loathes Zook, because Zook banned him from Facebook and Instagram, which probably makes it a lot harder to win.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: To win, right, I should have been a full stop there, because you have less reach.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: So he wants there to be competition for Meta.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: So who is this good for?
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Who is this bad for?
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Well, this is bad for meta.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: This is arguably bad for Snapchat.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: It's arguably bad for Pinterest.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: You can also argue it's bad for Google because it's just all competition for advertising dollars, Google.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: So if you look at those stocks over the last few days, google Meta down two percentage points.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Here you can kind of start to see that.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Apple, you start to see the impact of the chip thing, but also tariffs, right?
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Nvidia?
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Also similar story.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: We will sort of circle back to that in a moment.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Now there's a lot of information, if you're free to take screenshots, obviously, and obviously ask me questions.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: He's considering Jamie Dimon, the present CEO of JP Morgan, to serve as the Secretary of the Department of the Treasury.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Who's this good for JP Morgan?
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: You don't get an insider like that any other day and it's, of course, just generally good for Wall Street.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: So banks, big banks, financials and I said this two weeks ago and I made that video about what this would be good for.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: This is confirming it, right, righty-ho.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: So that's one part.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: He's also saying they're going to be drilled for more US oil and gas and there's a bit more to that.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, of course this is good for your you know your XOMs and your I don't know Devon Energy and all that kind of stuff, all those sort of stocks, and how are they doing today?
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Oil sums up, what's that?
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Cop is up, hes is up, vlo, like all the oil majors.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Oxy is up.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: You know those guys are happy because they're going to get easier regulation, more permits and more pipelines and all the kind of stuff that they want.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: But why is he really doing that?
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: It's not for the love of the oil and gas industry, it's to actually reduce inflation.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: The thought process there is you can reduce oil prices by the US just pumping up more oil, and the president's popularity is very, very much pinned to gas prices in the US, so it's probably his only thing he's announcing that's actually reducing inflation.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: A lot of the other stuff is increasing inflation and again I want to circle back to that when we talk about small caps in a moment, he's talking about tariffs on Chinese goods from 60 to 100%.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: In addition, a 10% tariff on everything else from everywhere else, whether it's Europe or Mexico or Canada or anywhere else, will be 10%.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: China 60 to 100%.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: That has some interesting impacts.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: A lot of things, even that American companies make, have Chinese components in it, say Tesla, for example.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Right, very hard for them to make a car without Chinese components, for example.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: So this will hit pretty much anybody who manufactures something at present in the US on a major scale.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: It would be an incentive large enough to move your production to at least Mexico, maybe the US, but it's certainly Mexico or some other country, india or Bangladesh or Vietnam or somewhere.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: That's low cost.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: But it's particularly bad for companies with a very, very large China manufacturing footprint.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: So Apple right.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Foxconn makes pretty much everything Apple in China, it's a bit in South Korea and it's a bit here and there, but it's largely all made in China.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: So that should be a negative symbol here.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: So is this making me more bearish on Apple?
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's got me worried about Apple stock seriously, and I think Apple has a very, very, very beautiful growth trajectory going into 2025, with people buying new iPhones for AI reasons and so on.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: It makes me worried.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Now I also worry about Dell.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: I have a Dell trade open which I have to close today because it's down somewhat.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: I'll show you here we're down $360.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: It'll be fine, even if it drops a bit more, it'll be fine.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: No-transcript.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: I looked at the chart and I talked myself out of it, as you do sometimes not always the smart thing to do, lisa, you still don't get me.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: What's going on there down?
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: How come stream looks good.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: What's going on with the stream?
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Stream is excellent.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: On my end, some of you guys having some it's a bit of a youtube glitch.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: That's what's going on there.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: You, let me know if you can see me, otherwise, I'm just talking to myself, which, of course, is incredibly interesting but maybe not as useful, uh, for you.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Uh, let me know if you can see and hear me, please.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: That would be brilliant, um, should I would, I could, I Indeed Peter.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you're quite right, it was quite good.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Entirely my fault.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: I completely put up my hand about that.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I'm back, says Lisa.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: Okay, all right, so that's you know why stocks like that are tanking today.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Apple down two percentage points here, but there's a bit more to that, actually that story that we'll get to in a moment.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: So AMD is down, avgo is down, qualcomm is down.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: All of these companies are affected by what Biden said today.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: And also, ok, thanks very much, you can see me.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, everything is crystal clear.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Ok, you can see me in Canada.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Ok, the Canadians have allowed me online.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: That's brilliant.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Appreciate that.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: So definitely big tech, and I don't mean the software tech, um, microsoft to a lesser extent, because, yeah, pc sales and so on, it's not that big of a deal for them, um, but it's the companies that really sell hardware.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: You know, a bit worrying now crypto.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: He says cryptocurrency should be made in the USA, and this, of course, is absolutely glorious stuff.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Wrong color again, for you know.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin, ethereum, stuff like Mara and Coin and MSTR and the whole lot of the Bitcoins are in space, even though even those stocks are down somewhat today, which makes very little sense.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: But they are so very positive, I think, for the crypto space, because the hostile regulatory environment that the SEC has been putting out there would go away.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: It's always a would right Now.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Before we get to the Biden's kicker today, which is all about chips and export restrictions, just look at small caps here for a moment.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: So we had a trade open on small caps.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: I took profits on that yesterday.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: It made a very nice return.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Do you want to see how much?
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: It was a small trade, but I'll show you how much here.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Iwm $900 on a.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: I can't remember how big that trade was, but probably four grand or something.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: So we ended up 25% return there in the space of what?
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Four, five days.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: So why did I exit that trade?
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Because it was ripe for the picking, and that's what we pick, right?
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: We don't wait for maximum, we wait for profit targets and then some in this particular case and if you want to learn how we automate the stuff so you don't do stupid things and lose your gains ever again, join our day two and day three of the masterclass.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Just sign up.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: It'll be later on today, 8 pm Eastern time.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: What did Biden say?
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: We'll get to that just in a moment.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: But yeah, so small caps have taken off very significantly, which is brilliant, of course, for everybody who's been in the small cap trade with us here.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: But they're still very cheap.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: This is the PE ratio, or, sorry, price to sales ratio of small caps compared to the S&P, and we are at very, very low levels, levels we haven't seen since, like the 1990s.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: So it's still very, very, very cheap.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: But there is a but here, and it's big and it's bouncy.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: And what is the but?
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: The but is that a lot of what Trump is announcing will lead to a higher inflation and it will make the Fed cut less, and the only reason small caps are going up is because we believe the Fed's going to cut interest rates three times this year.