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The Favorites - Super Bowl Prop Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome
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  Speaker 1: to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
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  Speaker 1: I am Schad Milman, cheap content Officer of the Action Network. Boy,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: we got a paloza of a show. We are following
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: up on the brilliant annual best podcast we may do
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: in the entirety of the Action Network Podcast Universe, as
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: envisioned by Matt Mitchell. Uh. It is the props of
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Palosa podcast that Sean Kerner and Chris Raybon do every year.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: They did it UH early this week. I think it
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: came out. It came out this morning. I feel like
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: it's all blurring in my head. Simon Hunter professional better,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, Mike and Padre Hello saw him in.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Hello Chad, Good to be back in the States. You're back.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: You're back from England. Cheerio, my friend, you survived. I
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: think you were drunk from most of the podcast you
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: did last week. Definitely was, but I got my point
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: out there. I think people knew where I was going
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: to be regardless, but the alcohol definitely maybe a little
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: more confident that usually. But uh yeah, firing away last week,
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: you know, on Saturday, um, I went to the U
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: n C at Duke game at Cameron. How five sporting
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: event I've ever been too, stunning, how good it was.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: I was rooting for Duke because I was there and
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: because why not? But I bet on North Carolina. They
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: didn't cover. The spread was three and a half. What
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: the hell? Chare didn't care because the game was so
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: much fun. I didn't care. Truly astonishing, I woun't say.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: That's what got me hooked on Dick. That's why I
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: gotta Duke, push Rhim and Cameron indoor. I went there
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: or whatever. That was eight or nine years old as
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: the first American sporting event experience, and it changed my
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: life walking around that campus. We walked around Sachowski Ville.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Everyone's drunk. All the kids are running around it with
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: twenty degrees outside. Nobody had any clothes on. They didn't care.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: You walk around the quase and every garbage can is
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: filled with just liquor bottles that are empty and cases
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: of bud Light and wine bottles, and my sixteen year
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: old kids is just walking around like college is the
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: fucking best. He just could not get his head around
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: all of it. So we're back. It's a great way
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: to spend the non football weekend before the Super Bowl.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: You know what a better way to spend time is
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: bringing in Sean Kroner, bringing in Chris Raybon. I feel
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  Speaker 1: like I have. I've got the Yankees Murderers row on
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  Speaker 1: this podcast right now between the three of you. Kroner, Hello,
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  Speaker 1: what's up? Chad Raybon? Good to see your brother. I'm
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: been losing my voice yelling at Sean about all these
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  Speaker 1: punter props and stuff all week, so about how much
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  Speaker 1: money we're gonna make on them. That's the beauty of
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: proper Palooza is the punter props are probably Sean Kroner's
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  Speaker 1: favorite thing to bet on, and we're gonna get to
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: it for the rundown of this show. I want to
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  Speaker 1: remind people, if you're listening to us, follow the Favorites
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  Speaker 1: and Apple Podcasts. It's the best way to get us
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  Speaker 1: as quickly as possible. Follow the Favorites, follow us and Spotify. However,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: you get your podcasts file the favorites. We're gonna go
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  Speaker 1: over some props, Raybon. When you and Stucky do the
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Action Network podcasts, which I love your Thursdays, you'll do
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  Speaker 1: the six Pack. I've listened to that you basically focused
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: on props for the six pack this week. I want
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  Speaker 1: us to use a similar theme for the podcast this week.
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  Speaker 1: I want each of you to be giving me your
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  Speaker 1: favorite props right now. A reminder as we go through this,
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  Speaker 1: the beauty of props, or the challenge with props is
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  Speaker 1: that prices change. When Raybond does this, when Kroner does this,
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  Speaker 1: when Simon does this, they are all evaluating based on
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  Speaker 1: the price. It could open at minus one ten, could
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: shoot up to minus one thirty, minus one, minus one fifty.
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  Speaker 1: The variance is in the price, not necessarily in the
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  Speaker 1: number itself that's moving as much. So it's just something
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  Speaker 1: to keep in mind. Um, we will ask them to
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  Speaker 1: give their sort of floor in their ceiling for what
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  Speaker 1: the prices are on these props, as well as their
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  Speaker 1: floor and ceiling for yardage. But let's just kick it off, Raybon,
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  Speaker 1: you go first, give me your favorite prop for Super
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  Speaker 1: Bowl fifty seven. All right, well, I'm going straight to penalties. Uh,
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  Speaker 1: you know, there's not allowed to talk about Carl Cheffer's
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  Speaker 1: the referee, and I think you gotta go over ten
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  Speaker 1: penalties accepted here. Um, I've seen it at minus one ten.
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  Speaker 1: If you look at him all times, seventy percent of
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  Speaker 1: the time he's called eleven or more penalties in a game.
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  Speaker 1: Game Uh just uh fifteen percent at the time he's
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  Speaker 1: called a fewer than ten in a game. So if
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  Speaker 1: you can get the even ten, I think it's a
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  Speaker 1: slam dunk um. And then even at ten and a half,
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  Speaker 1: I still think there's value there. Um. With a Western
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  Speaker 1: the postseason, he goes about over eleven or more and
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  Speaker 1: then about eight percent nine or fewer. But either way,
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  Speaker 1: this guy is leaning towards calling a lot of penalties
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: more than calling a few menalties. So that's one where
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  Speaker 1: I'm giving people to split. So if the books want
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: to get cute and change the number and it goes
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  Speaker 1: to you know, let's say eleven and a half or something,
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  Speaker 1: then you still bang the under. So um, but I would,
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  Speaker 1: I would, I would really bang the over at ten
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  Speaker 1: or ten and a half for Jeffer's penalties. How do
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: you find that what is that under It depends on
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: the site, usually game props or game special or something
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: like that, something with the game, the entire game, because
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: I'm looking to bet that right now and I don't
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: even know where to find it. So I'm looking on
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: fandor right now. Yeah, vandelous stuff. They got props spread
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  Speaker 1: all over. It's so hard. Well, I guess while Croner
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: is telling me his favorite proble, I'm gonna have to
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: go you're out. But Raybun, this is like a little
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: episode of Convinced Me. You know, if you're talking about
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: officials and there's a prop on official I'm I'm duty
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  Speaker 1: bound to bedding, So give me that one, Coroner, give
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  Speaker 1: me your favorite prop. Yeah, so my favorite prop right
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  Speaker 1: now is actually for the Chiefs to call the first
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: time out. You can get this around minus one oh
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  Speaker 1: five right now, And it does seem like this would
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: be a market that's similar to the coin toss, where
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  Speaker 1: it's just more of a fifty fifty type of bet
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  Speaker 1: that just comes down to luck. But that's not the case,
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  Speaker 1: especially with this matchup and last year, if you recall,
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  Speaker 1: one of my favorite props was the Rams to call
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: the first time out, Sean McVeigh is one of the
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  Speaker 1: most wasteful coaches when calling time outs. Um So, I
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: went and I tracked both these teams, which teams called
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  Speaker 1: the first time out in all their games and which
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  Speaker 1: ones were wasteful. So wasteful time outs or when the
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  Speaker 1: offense or defense has to call time out due to
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  Speaker 1: you know, the play cocks about to expire, they're trying
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: to avoid a delay of game penalty, or they don't
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  Speaker 1: have the right personnel on the field, or for any
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  Speaker 1: other reasons. Um And the Chiefs called the first time
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  Speaker 1: out in fifteen of nineteen of their games. So that's
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  Speaker 1: a seventy nine percent rate, and twelve of those first
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  Speaker 1: time outs were of the wasteful variety by Andy Reid.
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  Speaker 1: So that's a significant trend. And on the on the
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  Speaker 1: other side, Nick Sirianni, since he came in the league,
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  Speaker 1: um he has been one of the best coaches at
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  Speaker 1: saving his time outs. He really doesn't waste time outs.
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  Speaker 1: Um So, they've been the first team to call time
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  Speaker 1: out and only seven of their nineteen games. That's a
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  Speaker 1: thirty seven percent rate. Um So, I just think any
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  Speaker 1: Reid is way more likely to be the first coach
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  Speaker 1: to call time out and it's going to be of
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  Speaker 1: the wasteful variety. Um so I'm projecting this around a
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  Speaker 1: sixty sixty five percent chance of the Chiefs calling the
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  Speaker 1: time out and we can get this, like I said
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  Speaker 1: at minus one on five. So I love the value
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  Speaker 1: were getting on this. I mean, come on here, here's
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: what I love. So you've got another one that you
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  Speaker 1: wrote about on Action network dot com and in the
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  Speaker 1: Action Network app? Will both teams kick a field goal
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  Speaker 1: longer than thirty three yards? And the stat in there
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  Speaker 1: was Harrison Bucker has done it in seven of fifteen games,
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  Speaker 1: so only forty seven percent of the time, and Jake
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Elliott has basically done it in only a third of
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  Speaker 1: his games, so there was an edge in playing the No,
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  Speaker 1: both teams will not kick a field goal of more
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: than thirty three yards. But now you're giving me like
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: first down research take us like these are so obscure.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Explain a little bit, like how much time did you
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: spend researching this? Give a model doing all this and
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: you're just spitting it in there, Like how do you
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: get there's thousands of props in there? How are you
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: firing the time to find the edge for all these.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: So the field goal one, I literally used that in
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  Speaker 1: my simulator, so I was able to find that out.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: UM that one. You know, I had a thirty four
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  Speaker 1: there's a thirty or four percent chance that neither team
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: kicks a field goal, so that's an automatic winner that
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: not both teams would make a field goal over thirty
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  Speaker 1: three yards. And then I found there was an eight
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: percent chance that at least one team would kick a
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: field goal, but it wouldn't be longer than thirty three yards.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: So that was all just simulator driven math. For the
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: time outs, I had so much fun with that one.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Last year. I actually went through and just looked at
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: the game logs UM and I was charting, you know,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: which ones were wasteful. So any time that's called before
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: say four minutes left in the half, UM, I was
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: charting those as wasteful time outs. Again, the coaches want
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: to save time outs for you know, the two minute
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: warning and use it to stop the clock. And like
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: I said, Nick Siriani has been masterful with that since
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: he's coming the league, and I was shocked. Usually any
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Reid is or Bill of the pack, but this year
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: he was going through time outs like they were cheeseburgers.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Just insane. How really he's been calling time out, How
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: wasteful he's been. So he's been very sloppy. So just
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: the fact that this goes in both directions just I
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: just couldn't believe how much value we're getting on this problem.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Oh you said cheeseburg You know Andy Reid doesn't eat
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: less than a double cheeseburger. Come on, man, yeah, whatever
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: he eats. But he's been very sloppy this year. Ray Bond,
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: remind me what you said about the penalties. Prop You
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: still like it it over ten and a half. Yeah,
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: so I'm saying, yeah, over time and a half is
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: still good. Um, over ten is a slam dunk. But
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: if they move it to eleven and a half, then
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: obviously then you go under because then that's that's just
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: on the far end of the spectrum in terms of
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: in terms of penalty ball. All right, so we got
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: over ten and a half penalties, we got over. We
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: got Kansas City with the first time out, which I
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: kind of love makes total sense. Simon, as Abba would say, gimme, gimme, gimme,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: let's start off with our first crazy problems day. I
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: love these really big odd props. They're just fun to bet.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: All you gotta do is head a couple of them
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: every ten years, get your money back. So the first
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: one given out, it's most books, is better than ten
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: to one. I'm looking at FanDuel right now. You literally
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: go to defensive props. You scroll down and it says
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: safety during the game. Yes, is over ten to one,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: so that there will be a safety in this game.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: And I love for a multitud of reasons. The biggest
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: one is both these coaches. If they get below fourth
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: and five in the red zone, they are going for it.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: So I love the fact that the Chiefs don't want
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: to run the ball, especially even if it's fourth and one. Statistically,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: they passed one than any other team of football because
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: they do this weird or shuffle pass play. They're just
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: a team that when they get down there, they're gonna
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: go for it. Same with the Eagles they're there. They
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: have kicked the least amount of field goals this year
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: from closer than ten yards all season. So when I'm
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: looking at this match up, I see both teams that
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: are gonna go for it when they're down there and
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: fourth down, and if they both fail. You have two
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks that hold onto the ball, two quarter backs that
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: had been sacked, so her it's got really lucky. Last
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: week he got out of that safety just by an
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: inch out of Bosta's grasp. I don't think he's got
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: the same kind of luck this week. I think he's
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: gonna might be hold on too much. So to be
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: the fact that this number is so big is insane
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: to me. It's closer to eighth the one to me
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: than tend to one. You get lucky too. We we
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: got really lucky a couple of years ago. Uh that
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Denver Seattle game. First snap of the game, Denver snaps
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: at the back of the ENDZ and so he gets
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: stupid and fall into it as well. But I do
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: think we have a couple of scenarios that play out
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: well to this number. Well. I think that's fascinating. It
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: used to be for years like that was the one
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: no overtime, no safety Like those would be the props
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: that professional betters would bet to the max on no
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: and they treated as like a four hour savings account
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: with a very high return. So I like your logic.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: It actually feels to me like there's a through line
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: in there to what current or what I just mentioned
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: earlier about Kerner and the field goal props, in that
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: the expectations these are these are these are not conservative
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: coaches when it comes to play calling. When they're in
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: the red zone, they won't kick field goals. When they
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: are just outside the red zone, say thirty five medium range,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: fourth down, they'll go for it instead of kicking a
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: fifty something your field goal. Your theory on their their
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: tendencies inside the five is similar to that I like it,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: and it's the Chiefs. They don't got to save your
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: chat Henny in there to drive the field ninety eight yards.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: They gotta go with my homes. So it's not really
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: as good as chat Henny when it comes to crunch time.
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• 16:41
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of talk right now about Jalen Hurts.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: He's been injured. He did not look good in that
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Niners game. He missed some easy passes, especially early on
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: to A J. Brown. How come nobody's talking about Jalen Hurts.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Two hundred forty yards over under for total for passing yards,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: So I've I talked about that. UM. That was like
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: that was like a like a week ago. I was
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: talking about that when it was it was up by
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: like two six seven UM, and then I thought it
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: was gonna keep going up because people keep betting overs.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: And I woke up one day and it was just
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: ten yards lower. So I don't know if somebody like
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: agreed with me and steamed the under. What but now
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: it's kind of like a little bit more in line,
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: because I thought it should have been in the mid
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: in the mid two thirties, um, you know, the whole time,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: and which it's starting to go to now. But um,
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: it was initially opened way too high. I think I
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: think it's a lot more fair at this price because
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: on one hand, you're he's only gone off over you know,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: too forty three five times. I believe in his seventeen stars.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: But uh, you also expect, because this is the lowest
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: spread they've had a year, they could be a little
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: bit more pass heavy than normal. So I thought the
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: market was over inflating it when it was way up
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: in the mid two forties, But now it's a little
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: more on point, uh, you know, in the mid to
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: high two thirties. Well from my favorite prop, I'm gonna
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: steal one from Simon Hunter, which he talked about. I
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: think we talked about it on Green Dot Daily. We've
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: talked so much about this game at this point, I
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: can't remember where he talks about it. But I actually
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: love the idea of over two and a half players
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: to throw a pass in this game. I think it's
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: brilliant because you know, obviously it hurts some mahomes are
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Both players are banged up. You don't
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: know if someone is gonna have to come out for
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: the play. We clearly know that if they do have
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: to come out for a play, both coaches are not
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: afraid to let the backup quarterback throw the ball. But also,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: can't you just see Davante Smith coming around the end
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: and flinging a bomb to a J. Brown Like I
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: I so I can see that happening in this game
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: because these are not conservative coaches. And this is when
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: coaches more and more open up the playbook and go
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: a little bit crazy. So give me the over two
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: and a half for most for players to throw a
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: pass the Super Bowl. Croners shaking his head. He likes
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: that one. Yeah, I think it would be like Travis
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: Kelsey throwing a jump pass to like the left tackle
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: or something like that. You know, I think it would
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: come from Andy Reid side. Actually, I actually don't. I
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: think what I've noticed with Andy Reid in the big games,
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: He's like, I'm not thinking about of my homesan for
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: no reason, like for nothing. So I feel like if
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: I feel like it would come from Philly, you know,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: to the Philly Special or something like that. That would
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: be interesting bet though, like if you could bet, like
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: one team to throw more than when like one player
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: throwing the past maybe they should create that market for
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: us if vandals listening, they should here's the it, like
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: you know how like Simmons and McAfee, like there's always
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: these like bonus bets you're doing or whatever, like for Action,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: it would be the most obscure prop you can bet.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: It would be like can will one team have more
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: than one player throw the ball? That would be the
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: Action network. They could do, uh, like you the Philly Special,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: which which is will either quarterback score a touchdown receiving?
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: Which would be nice too because they could do some
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: crazy odds on that, because yes, that would be different
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: from just any time right, Yeah, to be like yeah,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: that would be that would be dope. Actually, there's a
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: question in the chat, I think Cerner, do you know this,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: if a challenge is unsuccessful in the time out is incurred,
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: does that count his first time out? Oh? Yeah, I
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: think it would ye ye, Okay, give me. I want
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: each of you to give me one more prop that
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: you love, and then I want to move on to
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: some other ones. So I like to Jared McKinnon under
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: eight and a half the longest rush. He's just been completely,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: uh ineffective running the football. Ever since that walk off
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: game winning run against Houston, he's run twenty four times
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: for forty three yards the long of seven. Only ten
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: percent of his carriers have gone for eight or more
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: yards this year. Only eight percent of his carriers have
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: gone for nine or more yards this year. So this
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: started at nine and a half, it's down to eight
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: and a half. There's even value on it at seven
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: and a half to why I look at this, This
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: guy just has not been uh finding you know, explosive runs.
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: And you look at last year double digit carries every
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: single post season game. They tried that this year first
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: game against Jacksonville got eleven only ran for yards. I
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: believe it was second game four carries, which is his
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: media on a year, he would need upwards of eight
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: carries to have a fifty even a fifty fifty shot
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: of clearing this prop at eight and a half. So
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: I like the under eight and a half for the
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: longest run. Do you have they do you have a
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: ceiling on the price. I would probably go down to
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: about minus one forty on eight and a half and
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: minus one minus like even money on seven and a half.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: All right, jeremymckennon under eight and a half yards longest
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: rush coroner, give me your next one. Well, I have
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: to be on brand here and give you my favorite
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: punter prop currently and it's um the Chiefs to have
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: the longest gross punt in this game. You could get
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: at minus one five, but the chief have a massive
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: edge here with Tommy Townsend. Um, he's been averaging fifty
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: and a half yards per punt this season, which drinked second. UM.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: Whereas Eagles, we don't even know who their punch is
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: gonna be. Uh, they might get Aaron Sippis back. Um,
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: he just came out the I R He's only average
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: forty five and a half yards per punt, which rinks
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: twenty six on the season. Have to imagine he'll be
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: a bit rusty. He might not even be a percent
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: for this game, so you know he's gonna be even
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: worse than his season average. Um, if he's unable to go,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: it'll be Brett Kern, who's only averaging forty one yards
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: per punt this season. The only player with a lower
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: average is Jake Elliott, the Eagles kicker who had to
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: fill in for Sippis when he got injured in games.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: So that just goes to show what we're dealing with here. Um,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: off of my sims, I'm getting the Chiefs actually culture
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: to a seventy percent chance to have along his punt,
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: and that's the best case scenario with Sippis active. So
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: I'm getting the fair price closer to minus two thirty
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: five here. So again we're just getting massive value with
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs minus one too. Had the long this gross
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: punt in the game. We don't even think Jake Elliott
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: is going to kick a field goal of more than
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: thirty yards. You know, we can't expect the guy to
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: come off the bench and punt from within three yards.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: All right, Simon, what do you got? This is a
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: couple of different ways you can go. I think people
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: know my view that I love the sacks in this one,
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna give it out if you want
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: to do any type of over on sacks for the
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: Eagles over two and a half we're told in the game,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: which I believe it's up the five and a half. Um,
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: I just felt safe for doing the Eagles over two
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: and a half at minus one fifty. But I'm trying
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: to go off plus the numbers here and another good
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: one on vandal is the over interceptions is that one
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: and a half is plus one fifty right now, one
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: two to be exact. It's a really good number for
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: what I think the books are overrating is Hurts does
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: really protect the ball during the regular season. I just
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: see both sides being more risky. And we've seen my
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: Homes in the playoffs makes she turns a bowl over
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: a higher rate than he does during the regular season,
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: and in his career in games he loses, actually turns
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: the ball over. So if you're an Eagles back or
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: you better hope that her my Homes turns up all over.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: It's not looking good. They're just the kind of team
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: that you That's how you have to beat this Chief's team.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: You have to get my Hoomes off his spot, which
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: is why I think this Egles deeplus would do. So.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna force him in a lot of weird,
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: tough throws to get him off balance and he'll be
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: able to turn the ball over. And the same thing
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: with Hurts. I just I think Hurts has gotten lucky
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: these last couple of weeks of uh not turn the bullever.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: He's kind of left it out there and got away
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: with a few. I don't think the Eagles can hide
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: him in this game. I think they're gonna have to
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: throw the ball. They're not gonna be able just run
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: the ball that they have been these last couple of weeks.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: So to me, that's crazy value when you know the
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: way I'm predicting this game to go, I think it's
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: gonna be a high scoring match. That means the ball
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: will be going through the air. So to me, that's
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: that's a really weird that they're making a plus one fifty.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: I think it's just based off the low turnover, turnover
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: and through the air that Mahomes had this past season
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: and hurt. So to me, I think it's over reaction
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: to the regular season, where just for this one game,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: I like that position of taking that over so interceptions
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: over one and a half, got it. I want to
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: ask a question about Miles Sanders crooner earlier in the week.
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: I think last week you had written that Miles Sanders
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: plus one fifty to lead the game and rushing was
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: a prop that you liked. He was at fifty seven
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards. Now is it about fifty
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: nine and a half? How do you currently have it graded?
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: Because I do think well, just answer that, how do
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: you currently have it graded? Yeah? So I'm actually in
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: line with his rushing prop um. I have his media
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: and right around fifty eight and a half um. But
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: he has just a massive ceiling here, and that's kind
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: of why I liked taking his um, you know, prop
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: to lead the game rushing yards. I actually got it
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: at plus one seventy. But you know that the Eagles
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: have been involved in so many blow outs this year,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: they pulled him where and he doesn't play much in
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. It's all Boston Scott and Kenny Gainwell.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: So just the fact that I think he's gonna be
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: the lead back for all sixty minutes bous welfor is
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: seen ng um. He handled seventy of the Eagles rush
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: attempts when they're trailing or winning by a fewer than
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: seven points, and then it dropped all the way to
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: when the Eagles were up by seven or more. So
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: I just love this ceiling here, and this is you know,
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: we have so many markets here a situation like that,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: I just rather invest in a market that captures the ceiling.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: So I like the fact that we're getting plus one
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: seventy five as opposed to attacking his medium projection. All right,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: I can't live with that. I like your bead. I'm
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: gonna steal another one. I like Miles Sanders to lead
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: the demon rushing. A lot of this is what the
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: point I was going to make before is a lot
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: of this is confirmation bias when you make your bets
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: in that I leaned to the under. I think Philly
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: has a dominant defense. I think Philly has when it
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: comes to the pass rush and when it comes to
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: um their offensive line, I think they're dominant. And so
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: I think it plays to the game script that they'd
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: have the ball more, that they'd be in the lead,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: that Miles Sanders would get the opportunity to run quite often,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: which makes me start to think, should I be betting
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: Miles Sanders? That's super Bowl? A super Bowl m v P.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: Let's start that debate. Was nice. Another good angle of
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: that is this is it for Miles Sanders. So they're
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: they're probably not bringing them back next year. They're not
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: there's no game to save it for. They've been saving
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: them most of those games because they don't want to
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: pull any hamstring. So to me, if you're lying on
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: the Miles Sanders train, Chad, you also could go into
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: Fandel right now, go to player props most players rushing
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: yards for the postseason, he's a hundred back right out
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: of Christian McCaffrey. Do you think he can do it?
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: You can get him right now at plus six hundreds.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: So if he has a game of over a hundred
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: rushing yards, that also ties into that he would lead
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: the postseason and playoff rushing yards. So there's a couple
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: of sneaky little plays if you want to do those
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: kind of things. That's that's a play you could do
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: with Miles Sanders where you think he's going to lead
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: back in this game. That's not a bad bet. Well,
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: what do you think of him as Super Bowl m
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: v P. No chance, Just it's so QB driven. Even
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: if even if he has that incredible game and hurts somehow,
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: rushes for one touchdown, passes for another, has no turnovers,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: it'd be hard enough to give it to him or
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: whoever the best defensive player is it's just they really
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: skew the running backs. I mean that year, what was
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: it two or three years ago that um that chiefs
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: uh forty nine game. I think it was McKinnon. Whoever
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: the running back was, had an incredible game and they
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: still gave it to my Homes. You really didn't do
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: much in the games. It is tough chat with the
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: running back with m v P. I totally remember that
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: because I think I had Damian Williams and we watched
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: that game at a bar in New Jersey. That was
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: also the game uh where Patrick Mahomes his rushing yardist
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: and he was and instead of just taking a knee,
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: he kept running back like seven or eight yards. So
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: I felt I got lucky because I have Damian Williams
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: to win the m v P. But I also had
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: my Homes on the under his rushing yard, so it
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: worked out okay for me. The world gives you know
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: what I'm saying. If you're thinking about m VP, then Simon,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: who am I looking at? I I usually either go
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: safer with crazy long shots. So to me, if i'm
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: if I'm taking a side where if I love uh
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: my Homes and I love them to win, it all,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: it's just really impossible to see them winning this game
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: without it being on my homes. So I think that's
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: safe at plus one thirty compared to Hurts. I wouldn't
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: touch Hurts. I just there's too many factors in there
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: where I could see them give it the Hurts. He's
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: just not a lock like my homes is for that
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: team where we all know that's the reason they're so good.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: As my Homes, he was a lot of parts of
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: that team that make them so good. So um, if
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: I was going really safe and boring, I'd go to
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: my homes. I think we talk um a little bit about,
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: you know, reaching for the upside. Guys. I just don't
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: like it's been bent down so much with Reddick. This
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: he's the he's the pass rusher for the Eagles. It
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: was at fifty one now it's down to thirty four
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: to one, So I still like it. I don't hate
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: it how much it's moved, because to me, that's easy
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: X factor of this Eagle's defensive. He can really get
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: my Homes off his spot and affect this game. I
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: can see him getting m VP. But to me, the
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: numbers moved so much, I just right now I'm sitting here,
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: I would either go with Mahomes, I just wouldn't do anything.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: Mahomes is plus one thirty. Jalen Hurts is plus one thirty.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: Miles Standers by the way, one, Kerner, do you have
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: a m v P favorite pet? Yeah, I actually do
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: like Miles Sanders at one. I think this you know
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: already took him to leave the game rushing at plus
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: one s UM. I just think this game sets up
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: for a ceiling game for him. I also like to
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: look at previous games, and if you look at Week four,
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: I think he absolutely would have won m v P.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: He rushed twenty seven times hundred thirty four yards, two touchdowns,
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: caught two passes for twenty yards. Jalen Hurts only three
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: for two rundre yards no touchdowns, interception ran for four
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: yards of the touchdown. I think Sanders would have gotten
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: m VP there. I think if you look at weeks
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: twelve and fourteen, UM, even last week UM in the
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: conference championship game, I think Sanders would have been in discussion.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: I just think this matchup, especially if the Eagles win,
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: it sets up for a ceiling game for him, and
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: the Eagles are a team where I think you're running
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: back could win m v P. So give me a
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: mile of Sanders. Jesus Christ. Now I gotta bet that too.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: It's all of a sudden, like for a game where
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: I didn't I don't have a strong opinion on the side.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: I got like eight five bets going on here right now, Raybon,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: are you gonna make me add my list? Yeah? So
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: and and so. First of all, I want to talk
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: about just the philosophy of betting the m v P.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Because quarterbacks historical over the last twenty years and won
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: about time fair odds for each quarterback would be about
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: plus one eight, right, so there plus one each. But
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: I still think there's value on them depending on which
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: side you like. But I actually think you would be
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: doing yourself a disservice if you didn't bet a quarterback
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: that you like on the side plus another player on
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: the team, because the quarterbacks are both plus one thirty.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: Everyone else is sixteen and one or better. So, for example,
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: if you like to chief, you could go my homes
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: and then you know, we have the Action Network hedging
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: calculator and you can see you can see how much
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: you have to put on Let's say Travis Kelsey at
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: sixteen to one to two, then kind of optimize your payout.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: If either of them one, you only have to put
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: another fifteen bucks. Let's say you put a hundred on
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: my homes, you only have to put another fifteen bucks
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: on Kelsey. Uh A J. Brown at eighteen to one.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: You put a hundred bucks on Jalen Hurts, you only
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: have to put another twelve bucks on A J. Brown
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: at eighteen to one. So I think that's how I
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: would attack this market, is taking the quarterback for the
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: team that you like more and then pairing them with
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: You could even do multiple long tracks because all the
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: starters on either team, I mean a J. Brown eighteen
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: to one, Miles Sanders to one, Javonte Smith thirty one
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: to one, Dallas got her sixty to one. Those are
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: the most likely guys. Um, so I like all of those,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: I think as far as long shots. And by the way,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: I do think this year is a year where running
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: back could win if it's filming, because um there's a
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: chance even if Hurts, Let's say it gets one touchdown,
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: whether it's passing or rushing. If Miles Sanders gets multiple
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: touchdowns or something like that, I think he has a shot.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: So I actually like Kenny Gainwell at one thirty two
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: one because he's got two different ways he could win.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: He could win if they're blowing him out, but he
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: could also win if they're in a comeback game script.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: And let's say he gets a touchdown early and then
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: another one he catches a bunch of balls, and then
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: it gets another one late. Uh, and Hurts only has one.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: I think that the chance game will go winz. So
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: I like him one third to one. You know what's
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: so interesting about this? Like I said, I have no
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: opinion on the side, yet I've sort of I've literally
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: bet both sides of it, both teams as underdogs. And
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: as I'm thinking about this game and listening to these
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: conversations and realizing what I'm adding for the props, all
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: the props on betting are positive for the Eagles and
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: negative for the Chiefs under Jared McKinnon. The longest rush
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: I like. I like Miles Sanders is m v P.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: I like Miles Sanders to lead the game in rushing.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: I like the under which plays to the strengths of
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: the Eagles in this game. This is like, it's astonishing
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: to me, how I'm talking myself into the Eagles on
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: this game? Okay, Chad Well, then just that Travis Kelsey
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: sixteen o one. Remember last year, Cooper cup Well, he
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: was the top pass catcher, like not like top pass kets.
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: First of all, who are the last four winners have
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: actually been pass catchers. And even if doesn't win last year,
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: it's Tee Higgins that's gonna win. So either way, a
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: pass catch one last year, Travis Kelsey sixteen to one.
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: That cut closed six to one last year, Travis Kelsey
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: sixteen to one. He has a touchdown in eleven of
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: his last four teen postseason games. He's got ninety plus
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: and six of his last in a postseason game. So
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: if the Chiefs win, they could there could be a
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: situation where my homes, because of how good the Eagles defenses,
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: my homes could throw for like two fifty to sixty
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: with two touchdowns. Travis Kelsey could go for like one
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: thirty with both of those touchdowns. Who wins with the
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: with the brother battle thing Kelsey? So I actually think,
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: if you like to, if you want to chief positive
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: Chiefs bat, Travis Kelsey is a crazy good value. Well
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: I'm not just gonna do Travis Kelsey. I'm gonna do
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: my homes and Travis Kelsey. Yeah, exactly, there you go.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna do my homes for five dollars and I'm
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: gonna do Kelsey for two dollars and fifty. And I'm
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: gonna look in the Action Network calculator. What are you poor? Exactly?
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Raybon, I don't know. I'm not I'm not.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: Like it's a button. The button it says maximum wager
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: possible or whatever it says a little I'm an old
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: guy living in ken Adiquette with two kids like Raybon is,
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: you know, living his best life in l A coroner
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: is not too far away, Simon, You know, Jesus, I can't.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: I can't hang with this crowd. Forget about it. Forget
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: about it. All right? Well, I like all those I'm
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: betting all of them. There's not a single game, there's
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: not a single bet I'm not making here. Um before,
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: there's a couple more topics I do want to hit. Uh.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: Can we talk about pregame exotics, specifically the National Anthem,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: which the amount of research that goes into this year
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: after year has become so intense cron or. Do you
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: have a strong opinion on national anthem right now? Oh? No,
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: I never do. I just tell Raybon, I I only
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: about on things I can, you know, use numbers and simulate,
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: but this is all Raybon alright, Raybon? Yeah. So, uh,
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: the overrunner I've seen for this, uh is two minutes
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: in five seconds, and I would go under. So the
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: way I've been looking at this is a lot of
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: times people try to find the singer and and and
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: see if they've done it before. I find that gives
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: you zero insight because what happens is the singer invariably
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: just drags it out for the actual anthem, it's nothing,
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: the time comes in, nothing like any of the other
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: renditions they've ever done. So I just look at, uh,
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: the the numbers for the actual Super Bowls in years past.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: So for the last sixteen Super Bowls, the average has
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: been a minute fifty nine. The median has been a
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: minute fifty six and a half. And uh no, there's
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: only been a few guys, by the way to that
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: have that have done it, and they've they've stayed under
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: the two minute and five second mark. So I think
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: you got it's a rare under I think the books
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: are finally trying of over it over corrected here, uh
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: for the uh you know, for for for it going over,
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: but twelve of the sixteen have gone under uh two
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: minutes and five seconds over the last sixteen Super Bowls.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: So I'm and under for the for the anthem. SERI
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: in the last ten days, Raybon, have you spent more
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: time researching national anthem Jared McKinnon's longest rush or Super
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: Bowl m v P Uh probably Jered McKinneys longest rush,
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: to be honest, but because I had to go through
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: each one of the questions that I had to go
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: back to last year look at how far off that was.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: But I mean it's clo it's close with the anthem,
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: but the anthems, I kind of have this this uh
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: this information, so like I really just have to go
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: back to last year adding the numbers. And it was
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: Mickey Guyton. She took a minute in fifty but last
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: year the books were at like a minute and forty
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: five or something like that. Uh, so she ended up
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: going over. But now I feel like they've kind of
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: overcorrected here. And again there's just been It's rare that
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: you get a guy. Uh, it's it's been almost all women. Um,
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: the guys have tended to be a little bit shorter,
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: a little bit uh longer, so they they've kind of
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: um put it up, but like not that much longer.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: Um you know to go to two oh five, just
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: a tiny bit um So yeah, you gotta go under here.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: That's a massive swing. That twenty seconds is a massive swing. Yeah, simon,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: tell me about your theory on the gatorade prop. The
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: gatory prop. It's it's just a crazy amount of hear say.
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: And that's what a lot of the Super Bowl props are,
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: just like the trying to calculate how long the guy's
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: gonna sing for we all remember last year, maybe was
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: here before that guy posted that video and all the
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: hells are breaking loose because the video of the warm
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: up singing of the national anthem, and it literally did
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: move the line by like twenty seconds. So that's one
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: of those things too, where be wary of that stuff.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: If you're if you're like this, you're betting this now
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: and then all of sudd you've seen it move by
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: twenty seconds or ten seconds, searching internet because something might
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: have leaked. That's what we're going through right now where
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: I think I got some good info on the gatorade
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: stuff and we're gonna see how's gonna play out. But
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: basically the rumors are is that the Eagles sideline has
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: two yellow and green gatorades and they rotate between a
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: blue and or red for the other one. You know,
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: the chief sidelines they always have one yellow or green gatorade.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: So just simple math, if we got six six altogether,
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: so three on both sidelines and combine, there's three yellow
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: and green gatorades. I think there's good value on betting
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: that number, and especially when both teams that's both in
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: their colors. Both teams have yellow or green in both
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: their colors. So for me, for the Eagles one, I'm
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: doing that the yellow and green, and then I'm also
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: betting red as well, just for the Chiefs in case
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: they win it. Um to me, it feels like those
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: are two the safer bets. And also have to look
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: into where the gatorade's positions. So that's one of those
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: where I might tweet out something Sunday, But I told
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: you I have a little inkling of where um, I
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: think this one's gonna go. So I'm just grabbing the
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: green and yellow early now, because I've just I've heard
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: the rumors and I've seen the line move where it
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: wasn't plus three fifty now a lot of books is
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: down to plus two seventy. I would just grab it.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: I see it suddainly down at two fifty by the
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: time this game kicks, All fellas, as far as I
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: can tell, we've covered player props. We've covered penalties, We've
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: covered um hunts, We've covered her sacks, We've covered m
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: v P, we've covered first time out, we've covered national anthem,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: we've covered Gatorade. What did I miss? Am I missing anything?
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: We've covered my unit size. Yeah, there's nothing. There's nothing
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: that hasn't been covered, Coroner. Am I missing anything? Is
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: there anything in your god forsaken database of ten million
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: data points and the biggest game of the year that
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: I've missed? No? I mean we we do have more
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: player props if you want to go over some more. Yeah,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: we we One thing we didn't talk about, unless I've
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: missed it, was we didn't talk about anytime touchdown right
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: or or touchdowns. And I would say, um, you know,
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: for for for everyone who wants like like the one
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: that is a really good chance to hit again. Travis
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: Kelsey has scored in his last five post season games
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: eleven of his last four teen post season games. He's
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: got the whole brother narrative going on. I think minus
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: one fifteen is still it's like a little overvalue. Like
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: I think his touchdown ads are just under fifty fifty
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: when you projected out, but like when you consider just
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: how much it goes up in the postseason, it's really
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: tough to model that. So I think that's a really
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: good play. But you know, I know Sean and I
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: have been talking about this guy, Jody Fortson all week. Uh,
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: you know, first touchdown, anytime, touchdown, whatever you want. I
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: think he's a really great, like long shot bet because, um,
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: he of his career catches have gone for touchdowns and
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: then this year, thirty percent of his targets have been
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: inside not the twenty, but inside the ten yard line.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: And uh, he's running about eight routes per game, which
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: is really good for a number three tight end. And
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: he only came back for the championship. He was out
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: for about the last month months and a half before that,
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: so you know, he's kind of still under the radar.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: I don't think he did anything in that last game,
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: but he's he should be out there, uh, you know,
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: eight for about seven to ten routes. Uh. And it's
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: more than likely that if he gets a target, gets
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: a catch, it's coming in in the end zone. So uh,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Jody Fortson, I believe he's at twelve to one for
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: any time. Uh, and he's way up there for for
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: first touchdown. So that's the guy that I would I
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: would encourage people to to take a shot on for
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: a lung shot. Give me one more player problem. Yeah,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: so this is the market where I do like a
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: player like Kaus Watkins. You can get him at plus
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: seven fifty. Uh, He's not a player I would invest
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: in like the over on his receiving ards or something
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: like that. I'm giving him a percent chance. He doesn't
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: even catch a pass here, but he carries a ton
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: of upside when it comes to catching long touchdowns. All
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: three of his touchdowns this season have been on targets
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: twenty plus yards down field. UM. So a game like
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: this where the Eagles will probably more pass heavy because
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a rare, close, potentially trailing game, script,
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: I think you know this is a time to invest
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: in Watkins ceiling and if you look at you know,
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: Watkins three touchdowns in sixteen games, that's a fair price
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: of plus four thirty. So I just think we're getting
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: quite a bit of value here of Watkins at plus
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: seven fifty. Well, listen, if I know anything, having been
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: on Convinced Me with all three of you all season long,
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: which everyone can watch on Sunday morning at eleven am
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: in the Action Network GAP, Action Network HQ, on Twitter,
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: Action Network on YouTube, I know that Raybon has made
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: a living on Quez Watkins under receiving yards. I know
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: that Raybon is going to be on Quez Watkins under
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: one and a half receptions. I know for a fact
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: that Sean Kerner is now saying Chris Raybond doesn't know
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: what he's talking about. So that's exactly what it sounded
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: like to me looking forward to see the the Quez
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: Watkins battle for Convinced Me for the Super Bowl Previe
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: never know what I'm talking about. I just it's just
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: will have one. You're gonna spread that needle, you're gonna
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: feel like, to be honest, That's why I'm not betting
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: his yardage this game. I thought the volume was a
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: smarter play because the others of him getting two catches
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: are still super low. But like this is a game,
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: like you saw the last game he got Like I
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: think our thirty three yard air yard target, it just
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: got broken up by tre Various Ward, Like I could
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: see that happening again. Like he's gonna get his one,
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: his one deep shot, and I think he has a
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: deep chance of connecting because the Chiefs aren't you know,
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: the San Francisco for your nars. Alright, boys, we've covered
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: the whole field. We've done it. Simon Hunter, Sean Kerner,
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: Chris Raybon for producer Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Millman.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the volume in
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: podcast Network. Don't forget people, do not forget. Follow the
• 46:02
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• 46:07
  Speaker 1: You can get us right away. Uh what else does that?
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: I want to say? Download us from Apple podcasts, from
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: Spotify wherever you get your podcasts, rate review, subscribe feedback
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: as a gift. Until next time on Thursday, we'll have
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: Best Bets with Brandon Anderson. Looking forward to that. I
• 46:25
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