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NFL DFS Week 6 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems go. Clear your liftoff. What's up, everyone? Tyler
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Tamblyn here, a.k.a. ToeTag and Tambo, back for another edition
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: of Leverage Lane NFL Edition here on the Ship It
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Nation YouTube station. We've got week six ahead. My guy
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Alex Blickle here with me as always, and we're going
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: to be breaking down things a little bit different. We
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: do a single entry perspective. We're going to talk a
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: lot about picking our lanes this week. There's a bunch
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: that you can go to, a smaller slate than what
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: we've seen, right? Got some buys and things like that
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: and the international game going on. So we're We'll get
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: to that. We'll look at the chalk build, how we
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: can leverage it. And then, of course, at the end,
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: we'll get to our lanes. But I might even bring
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: in a new. So, you know, less is more is
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: my motto, Alex. And usually if it ain't broke, don't
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: fix it. But I had a thought this morning of
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: like a segment. I didn't even talk to you about
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: pre-show of like pick your lane. And I just want
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: to give you like this guy versus this guy. And
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: I'm just curious. And it's in some of the most
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: similar spots on the slate. So we'll add that. See
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: what people like. If you like the video, make sure
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: to smash the thumbs up. Make sure to subscribe to
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: the channel and then leave a comment. If you say
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: that segment sucks. do it. We're just always trying to
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: improvise and get a little bit better for you guys
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: as much as we can. Alex, bring you in man.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Week six. What's going on, my friend? I love the
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: background over there. It's very nice. Yeah.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: Uh, at my dad's this week, we've got a, uh,
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: an alumni basketball game this afternoon. So getting some, uh,
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: NFL work in, in the morning and then playing some basketball,
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: then headed home, uh, for the, for the full, you know, uh,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: ownership update and SIM update, uh, this evening. So, uh,
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: All of that said, I think this is a really
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: fun slate to talk through. I put in my Discord
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: this morning, I can't wait for this leverage lane because
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: I think this is one of those times we're on
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: the show. Sometimes we're on here, we're saying, hey, I've
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: got a real clear picture of how I want to
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: attack this slate. This is how. And today, this is
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: one of the shows where it's like, I really want
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: to talk things through because I don't yet know what
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: I want to do. How do I want to attack
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: this slate? There are certain things that I feel confident about.
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: We'll obviously talk through those. And I'm kind of hoping
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: that Those discussions will then lead me to, okay, well,
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: given I feel strongly about this and this and this,
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: that means I should do this. And maybe I'll come
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: out of here with a much clearer, more organized picture
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: of how I want to attack this one.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: And I was being serious. Yeah, there's no shots here.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I think it's actually nice. It is aesthetically pleasing. I
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: was like, it looks good. It looks like you're in
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: a cabin at the Masters or something at Augusta National.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: It's got the green shades. It's got the oak wood
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: up the sides. Is that what I'm seeing? So maybe
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: it's like Baker's or something like that, but it definitely
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: looks nice.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I got to come back for Masters week, I guess.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. Get that. Well, let's get that green jacket
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: this week. A million bucks up top. You got the
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: 555 Millie maker going on over on DraftKings, the $ 20
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: as usual. How much do you want to talk about
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: last week? I will say this. We just press live
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: like we do at the top of the hour. I
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: feel like we should start pressing live five minutes before
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: because some of our pre-show conversation, it's like, damn, we
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: just got to get live and start saying this stuff
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: for everybody. And that's what we want to do. So
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: how much do you want to talk about last week?
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: I have two topics that for this week, both pretty quick,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: I think, but are interesting. And then they will apply
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: to this slate specifically. So what do you want to
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: talk about when it comes to last week? Anything?
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: Well, why don't you just bring up yours? Cause my,
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: when the first thing that I thought of when you
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: asked that question was what, what the hell happened last week?
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: Cause it's like, you know, we've had this conversation before.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: It's like, by the time we get to Saturday and
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: you were here doing this show last weekend feels amazing.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: like a month ago to me.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: It always does. There's so much going on throughout the
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: week and long hours, late nights, et cetera, et cetera.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: So I was trying to remember that. I was thinking
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: more of about like a couple other takeaways, like obviously
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: like the Bowers is JSN, right? You and I have
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: been beating that drum. I mean, you put the coach
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: to it and said with Kubiak, like that's what it is.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: It's just people, even this week we'll get to it. Oh,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: but he's gone up in price again. He's 7,500, right?
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: He can't go to 9,300 like he probably should be.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: So you got to look at that and think about it.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean it's always going to work out, but
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: you got to remember what you're getting Yep. And in
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: the end, and I talked about, so, so mine was
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: pretty simple. It's back to back weeks. The week before
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: was Parker Washington shock last week, Michael Wilson shock, and
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: even McBride McBride did get there with 21.5 late, but
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: my goodness, they had to feed the damn guy right
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: to the very end. And it's like, it counts. I
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: made this joke about garbage time points, but Michael Wilson
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: was the big one for me and it just didn't
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: come through last week. So we'll talk about that this week.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: I think it's interesting.
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: And not only that, but like McBride was outscored by Bowers.
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: So if you made that pivot, you still, uh, you know,
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: you still were, uh, You still benefited from it. I
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: would also say I felt really good about the leverage
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: lane again. Last week, mine was using Gibbs and the
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: Detroit defense to kind of like paint the picture of
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: how that game failed. And ironically, like the Detroit defense,
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: because of that garbage time touchdown, like they were only fine.
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: I think they ended up with five DraftKings points would
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: have been eight without that garbage time score. But Gibbs
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: had the massive, massive game. And because Detroit was able
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: to get pressure throughout the game and really kind of
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: shut that offense down. you saw the big Michael Wilson,
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: you know, mega chalk failure that we were looking for.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: And that's the kind of move that I think I
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: really liked the way we kind of talked through that.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: And it's interesting, like Arizona's in another really high total game.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: They're up against another high powered offense. Sure. The Rams
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: defense is a lot better than Detroit's, but it's not
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: like teams haven't moved the ball against this Rams defense.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: And now all of a sudden Arizona's getting like no ownership.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: So I talked up, up, like off the top of
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: there's some things in ownership this week that are confusing
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: me a little bit. Some of which I think like
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: these guys are just way over-owned. Arizona is one where
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: I'm just a little confused why it's so low, which
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: isn't even necessarily me saying that like, I think that
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: they're under-owned and I want to play them. It's just,
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: I'm surprised at how far the sentiment has shifted based
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: on just one week in a pretty similar game environment overall.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, agreed. And there's now a love injury, right? Love's out,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Algier in. There's more things to talk about with that
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: when we get there. Like I said, I've got two
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: topics for this week. I'm going to get to those
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: in a second. I've got a good way to put
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: them out so that they will lead us right in
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: to the topic of the chalk field and whatnot. But
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: before we get started, I just want to remind everybody
• 6:46
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• 6:49
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• 7:31
  Speaker 1: So we'll get to that in a second. The first
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: one I want to talk about is when you brought
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: up the topic of coming into the show, we talked
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: pre-show and I mentioned as well, like, you know, I
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: would just had some, I always call them shower thoughts.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Like you're thinking about like, Hey, what's this? What could
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: I do here? Like you come up with some good ideas.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: I think the real answer is when you don't have
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: your phone in your hand all the time, you come
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: up with actual thoughts. Imagine that. But I will say this,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I want to talk about this topic real quick with you.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: What do you do when you have something that's really good?
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: I want to see how you handle this. You love something.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: You can really tell a story about it, game theory,
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: all this perspective, but then it's no good for projection.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: It doesn't show up for that. I guess I have
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: my answer, but I want to see how you think
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: about that situation where you're like, this is just plain wrong.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: You can go change it. It's your projections, your ownership,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. I could tell the team at
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Shiba Nation to do the same. but it is kind
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: of subjective, right? It's like, I think this is going
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: to happen. It's IK being the situation. How do you
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: handle that when applying it to a single entry build?
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I love this question. So first of all, I
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: think like each time it happens is different and it
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: depends on, for one thing, like, are we talking about
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: a full stack? Are we talking about one single play?
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: I can give you an example of one of the
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: times that that happened this year is two weeks ago,
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: the Kyron leverage lane call when he ends up being
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: the single most important play of the slate, he didn't
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: project that well. Now, I did go in and I said, okay,
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: why is he not projecting that well? What can I
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: find here? As you mentioned, it helps that I'm doing
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: my own projections. One of the things that I saw was, okay,
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: there's too much volume going to the receivers. The Eagles
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: secondary is really good. They forced some more checkdowns. I'm
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: able to bump Kyron's target share up a little bit.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: I'm able to bump you know, the target shares of
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: those receivers down a little bit, especially Devontae Adams that week.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: So little things like that, I am able to go
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: in and edit. And he went from, you know, a
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: really poorly projected play to a pretty well projected play,
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: but still nowhere near likely the best play of the slate.
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: And in that case, I'm still comfortable saying, okay, but
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: I think that he is one of the best plays
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: of the slate. I'm going to play him here. I
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: think he's one of the largest ownership inefficiencies. So like,
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: even though he, sorry, even though he wasn't projecting that well,
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: his GPP score was still really good. So I think
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: largely like a lot of what my stuff is trying
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: to do, the projections, the GPP score, so on and
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: so forth is actually trying to help that sort of
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: scenario where like it's your, the, the data is trying
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: to bridge the gap between projection and good DFS play.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: And there are obviously a lot of, you know, different
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: things there. Like it's, for example, like it's really difficult
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: for the GPP scores to incorporate like you know, the,
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: the concepts of correlated leverage that I've talked about many
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: times are like, you know, direct leverage where you're saying,
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: not only does this guy fail, like, so Detroit defense,
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: for example, last week, the GPP score for the defense
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: can't account for the fact that if they hit, that
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: also means that a lot of chalk on the slate
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: is probably failing. But beyond that, like a lot of
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: this stuff is really trying to kind of bridge these
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: divides between what we think in terms of our own
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: convictions and how, good of a DFS play they are.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: And again, like it in that regard really helps that
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: I'm the one setting the projection so that when I
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: see Kyron projecting so much worse than I think he
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: should be able to, I literally can go in and
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: change the inputs that make him project better. But like, if,
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: if I were answering this question for somebody who doesn't
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: have access to the back end of the projections and
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: can change things that way, the thing that I would
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: say is number one, you shouldn't just dismiss it when
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: there's a big difference between what you expected and what
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: you actually see. The first thing you should ask is, okay,
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: why is this? Can I point to something in the
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: projections that explains why I feel differently than what I'm seeing?
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: And when I'm able to identify that explanation, is it
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: still something that I believe in? Or is this, oh,
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: you know what? I didn't think of that. They were
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: probably right. And I was the one who needed to
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: adjust my own, uh, you know, expectations or is it
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: the other way around? So like, you know, if, if
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: I hadn't gone in and changed those projections for, for
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: Kyron and for the other Rams, someone could have gone
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: and looked at that and said, wow, Devante Adams is
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: projecting extremely well. I don't know that I see that
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: against Quinn on Mitchell Quinn on has had so much
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: success against really good wide receivers. He's had a ton
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: of success against Devante Adams in the past. Like I
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: think that Devante's touchdown equity is much lower. I think
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: that his involvement in between the 20s is going to
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: be much lower. so on and so forth. And then
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: you get to say, okay, because of that, there's two
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: and a half to three projection points for Kyron right there.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Great.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: Now, is there anywhere else that other guys are over-projected?
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: Or maybe you noticed that Kyron's rushing yards prop is
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: higher than what I'm projecting. So now you can say, okay,
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: even the market thinks that Kyron is better than what
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: these projections are showing. So there are lots of different
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: ways that you can look at it there, but I
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: think You always want to trust your convictions, but you
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: also want to kind of vet your own convictions to
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: make sure that they're grounded in something real.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the second part, obviously the first part,
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: extremely key. But like you said, because you have the
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: ability to go and change it. And that's also you
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: see these things, you're dialed into the data, all those factors.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Not everybody is going to have that. And so that's
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: why they sign up for Blick Analytics or Ship It
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Nation or both, hopefully, and they've got everything they need.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: But I'm saying the setup of the second part is
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: what I think a lot of people, and that was
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: going to be my part of the answer, is flipping
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: the switch mentally. I've talked about it a bunch. It
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: won't project correct on paper, but if A, certain optimizers,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: like if you had SaberSim through Shiba Nation, you would
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: be able to manually change that projection and go swap it.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: But in showdown, you can do this. If you're like, man,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: this doesn't make sense. They're giving Waddle all this credit.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: And I think it's Sutton night. And Waddle's got a
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: 13 projection and Sutton has an eight. And again, the
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: props push it that way. Everything you can go see
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: that probably is better off. But if you really want
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: to change it and get some unique lineups, go change it.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: If you want to just shift the ownership between one
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: running back from a Bijon and Brian Robinson game, we're like,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to give it a bunch. It's going
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: to be a Bijon game. But I think Brian Robinson
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: could be more involved. And on a showdown slate, it's easier.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: But on a main slate, I think there's a second
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: dynamic to it. So not only are you mentally flipping
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: the switch as to why, like you said, make sure
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: you're digging in, make sure you're understanding it, what's really
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: going on here, and let me have a look at it.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: But I also think the roster construction and how your
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: build looks, like you said, I'm just going to use
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: a single play. You talked about is it a stack
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: or a single play, right? And I'm going to try
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: and find an exact example here. I want to see.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: So 48 and a half is the number I got.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: I'm just using a receiving prop as an example, just
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: to see if like you're even in the realm or
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: the ballpark of this example I want to give you guys.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: 38 versus 47 and a half. So we're about 10
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: yards shy on this example I'll give you. But let
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: me explain it quickly. If you had a lineup, I'm
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: just giving you a quick example. I saw breezing through
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: some practice stuff this morning. If you're playing Trey McBride
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: and not Bowers, and you have $ 4, 700 remaining, And it
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: easily fits Xavier Worthy, who is this week with no
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: rice in a fantastic spot, right? You got Mahomes as
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: your quarterback. He's a wide receiver one now, like et cetera,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: et cetera. Maybe we'll find out plays out. Didn't work
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: out well for Trey Harris owners last week. I can
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: tell you from experience. So when these guys sometimes get
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: slid into the role, it doesn't always work out. But
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: to your point, I would rather play Trey Tucker. because
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: I don't have Brock Bowers and I've got Trey McBride.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: So not only do I want to, I'm doing it
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: because I'm like, Hey, I want to go get the
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: guy that fits there. But in a projection right now,
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: where these might be four points ahead or three points
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: ahead because of his situation. But when I validate it twofold, one,
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: not that far off the market anyway, it's a projection
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: is a projection is a project. It's median, right? Well,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: who knows what's actually going to happen, but two, they're
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: both kind of owned. I'm not saying Tucker's not getting
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: any ownership, but, But which one makes more sense for
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: the lineup? Well, I'm saying that $ 7, 200 McBride is going
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: to beat $ 7, 500 Brock Bowers. Therefore, I'm hoping it's not
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: just 25 points to 22 points. And I'm hoping in
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: that lineup that somebody eats Brock Bowers lunch. And in
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: this case, it would make sense to me for it
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: to be Trey Tucker. That's one example I could give,
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: but I wanted to give that as a first thought.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: I've got one later on too.
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: I like that. And I take it a step further
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: to where I think some people will kind of react
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: to that and say, well, can't both of those guys succeed?
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: And the answer is like, yeah, they can, but you
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: didn't stack Kirk cousins in this lineup. So you're already
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: making the assumption that that doesn't happen. Right. Cause if,
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: if it does happen, you're going to want that to
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: Kirk cousins, Trey Tucker, Brock Bowers. Cause that's like, that's
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: not going to be a super popular build this week,
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: but it's going to be a build that occurs this week. So, uh,
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: at minimum, if that happens, you've got at least a
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: handful of guys who went to that build that you
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: better make sure the rest of your lineup is a
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: lot better than theirs if you want a chance to
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: beat them. So you're already pretty much assuming that that
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: doesn't happen when you're not using that stack. And so
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: in that case, you're saying, all right, there's not enough
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: passing production in that Vegas game to support both of them.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: I can get rid of the possibility that Bowers has
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: a ceiling game if Trey Tucker catches a 40 yard
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: touchdown instead. Cause that's, you know, if Trey Tucker catches
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: a 40 yard touchdown, that might be three receptions for
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: 30 yards and a touchdown that Bowers doesn't get because
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: the drive ends instead of continuing up from that point forward.
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: So yeah, that's, I think a really good way to
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: kind of think through all this. And that's the, that's
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: the point I was making too earlier where it was
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: like the GBP source can account for like all of the,
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: you know, different ways that leverage, can be applied through
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: the guys that you're playing, but it can make the,
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: make the connection between like, well, he doesn't project that well,
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: but man, when it hits, how valuable can it be
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: for me?
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And then how does it make sense within the lineup?
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: And that's, I think for me, it's, I'm always thinking
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: about the overall game theory of it. And you added
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: it to like, it's not a cousin. So that, that
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: makes sense to me from that perspective as an additional
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: add on.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: I've got one more thing here real quick, Tambo, which
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: is like, you know, this, this question was framed from
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: a single entry perspective and, Um, and, and you'll go
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: collect here in the chat is saying like your single
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: entry lineup has to tell a story about how the
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: chalk fails, how you leverage it. That's true. But I
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: also think like, if you're building 150 lineups, you can
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: build 150 different lineups that also do a good job
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: of telling the story of how the chalk that you're
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: not using in that lineup fails. It's not like it's,
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: this isn't something that you only have to think about
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: in single entry. These are, these concepts are just as important.
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: no matter what contest you're in. Now, as you get
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: to those MME contests, it does become a little bit
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: more important to like, just make sure that every single
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: spot has ceiling, but it's, it's the same idea, right?
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Like if, if you're, if you're using Trey McBride and
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: you are hoping that in that lineup, he separates from
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: the field, which means he separates from Brock Bowers. It's
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: still very beneficial to you. If Trey Tucker has his
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: ceiling game and suppresses uh, Bowers that way. So even
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: though this is more important and, and really should be like, uh,
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: maybe it's not even that it's more important. It's just
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: easier to think through once in a single entry, which
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: is why, you know, personally, like I've had so much
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: more success and I'm more comfortable with just one lineup
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: per slate. Uh, it's still something you should be thinking
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: about if you're building 150 lines.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: 100%, but the point you added there that's so critical,
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: I think, is that in a single entry, people play
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: it safe. So that's why I'm saying the worthy play
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: just slides in with no thought whatsoever of why Trey
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: Tucker would make sense. Trey Tucker's ceiling game could also
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: be with Cousins, and it sucks that you don't have
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Cousins in that lineup, but guess what? A lot of
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: those Cousins-Tucker lineups have Brock Bowers in them, and Brock
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: Bowers is getting crushed because of that, so could it
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: still work out? Yes, but you are covering different angles
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: and thought processes within... And I think that's important to
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: remember than just taking the safe route of your, you know,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: I'm building one lineup and I've only got one. So
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: I better go with the three point better projected guy
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: because it just says he's three points better. No, think
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: about the whole lineup, but we'll get to more of
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: that stuff later. Speaking of that, the second section I
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: want to talk about, it's going to segue us in
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: anyway to this week and the chalk build and all
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: that you said in your opening. that some of the
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: ownerships are going this way and some of the other ones,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: you're noticing it. And I know we talked pre-show, so
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: I got the spoiler alert before you guys could get there.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: We are going to talk about the show. Atlanta spot.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: You know, Bijan steaming up some. Drake London, oh, if
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to Bijan, I'll just go to London.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: getting some extra steam. Oh, does everybody know that Burden's
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: on the slate? Or sorry, that Odunze is on the slate.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Burden's definitely known to be on this slate as is
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Caleb Williams back. But is Odunze going to be popular now?
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: Or is Odunze going to be that low owned? No,
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: spoiler alert, he's not going to be either. So that's
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: a game that is steaming. We're going to talk about
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: that in specifics. You can use it for your example
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: if you want. But the question I really have is
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: sometimes spots are steaming because it just built like the,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: it sims out better. The lineups look better, the overall everything,
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: because we have to build a whole lineup, not just,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: you know, picking a play. Is Caleb going to have
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: a good day? It's like, what does that do for
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: the rest of your build? Those builds do look pretty good.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: They come out pretty good in projection, median, ceiling, sim, every,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: everywhere you're going, these, these lineups are looking good. So
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: more and more people are moving to that. I know
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: there's different ways you can play within that game, but
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: just out of curiosity, I, How do you handle it? Again,
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: we always try and talk from a single entry focus
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: and then outward. But it's how do you handle that
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: when you have a game that you feel also like
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: it's pretty good? I think you said yourself in your Discord, like,
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: I wish this game wasn't steaming as much as it is.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: But knowing that, I think some people just immediately move
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: off it. Is there another way that you can handle
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: it and do it differently? That's what I want to
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: talk about.
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, honestly, like that's one of the things
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: that I'm kind of struggling to answer so far here
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: this week, which is why I'm hopeful that my thoughts
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: are going to be more organized by the end of
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: the show than they are right now. But I think
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: for one thing, like it's worth asking the question of, well, actually,
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: you know what, let's kind of define the issue first,
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: because I'm not sure everyone has as clear a picture
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: of what ownership looks like as we do. So the
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: first thing here is Tambo and I seem to agree
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: that this Chicago Atlanta game stack is, really kind of
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: growing rapidly in, uh, in popularity this week. And so, uh,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: at the beginning of the week, when I did my
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: first run of ownership, I had Caleb Williams slightly under 10%.
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: I had pretty much all of his past catchers slightly
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: under 10%, maybe burden was like 11 or 12%. And
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: I had London around 20 to 25 and Bijan like 35.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: Now I have both Bijan and London over 40% in
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: single entries and high stakes. I've got Caleb up to
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: around 15%. I have Burden almost 20%. Rome and Loveland
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: both over 10 with a chance to get to 15
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: to 20. So now the question is, okay, the field
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: saw the same thing I did, which was, you know what?
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: This game environment could be awesome and could just elevate
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: everyone in the game. And maybe people won't be on
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: it because we haven't really seen Chicago at full strength
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: yet this season since week one. And that was such
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: a weird game, even though it scored like 90 points.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: It wasn't, you know, fantasy gold from the Chicago side
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: of things. So maybe people won't play it yet. Well,
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: it turns out people are very willing to be ahead
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: of the curve on the Chicago offense and these stacks.
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: So with that out the window as like a sneaky option,
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: now the question is, okay, is it good chalk? Maybe
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: it is, right? I haven't really been able to answer
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: this question myself, as I said, but it doesn't automatically
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: disqualify the game for me. And one of the main
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: ways that I'm trying to approach it is like, okay,
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: what could I do differently? And so One of the
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: first thoughts that I had was actually asked here is like,
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: what do you think of Pennix London Bijon doubles? The
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: thought that I have first actually is what about Caleb
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: singles with both Bijon and London as a bring back?
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: So that's something I'm going to be relying heavily on
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: my conditional ownership tool for to see like, okay, when
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: people go Caleb instead of Pennix, are they still willing
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: to put both of those Atlanta studs together? If the
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: answer is yes, maybe I'll want to try to find
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: something else. If the answer is no, then that might
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: be the easiest answer of all, because you know, the,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: the weakest part of that Chicago game stack, I think
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: pretty obviously is trying to figure out which Chicago receiver
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: you should actually use. Maybe we should just go back
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: to Raymond who had, you know, who was, who's been
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: popular on certain slates is still super cheap, but he
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: failed one week with case Keenum or no with, with
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: badge into quarterback. So now people are totally off of him,
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: but should that really be dictating how we feel about
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: Raymond at this price tag?
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Maybe not.
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: And so, you know, that's an option. There's also an
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: option of just over stacking it and saying, all right,
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: everyone's going to be choosing Caleb with one of his guys.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: Cause no one wants to use two. What if I
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: use two of the three? What if I use three
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: of them? What if I go burden Rome and Loveland
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: with Caleb and only use one bring back? So I
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: think the very first question that I'm going to try
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: to answer here is, can I stack this game in
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: a really unique way? that is actually a still sharp
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: way and not just, you know, throwing too many roster
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: spots out the window.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: And I think you can. That's kind of the point that,
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: you know, from my takeaways, at least from what you said,
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, we haven't talked. Swift is still in this game. Somebody,
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: you'll just go collect mentioned in the chat quickly, but
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: like you can slice and dice and go your Gibbs
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: Detroit D. All right, let's go Bijon and Atlanta D.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: We know all these bears are steaming up late and
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: we know Caleb is coming back. And what if it's
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: a rough first game back? It could happen. It actually
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: is feasible. And then what does that do for the
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: rest of your build? So there is unique ways you
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: can go. I think you said it best. So for
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: like the original question, then we tried to apply it
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: and then we're going to get to the chalk field
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: in just a second for this week. But the idea of,
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: what we said in the previous question of like, okay,
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: if you're going to make that move, what action, what
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: does it look like that you're going up against? What
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: are you doing? That's that much different or what does
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: it get you? And I think there was a good,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: you know, and that's the same for this question. It's like,
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: if you look and say, is there a way I
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: can stack it, um, still be intelligent about it and
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: get something that is a decent output and a good
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: output for the rest of what I get, or does
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: it give me all these good wide receivers instead of what,
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: you know, is it Caleb Swift, uh, and Loveland and
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: you try and eat up the end zone. And now
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: you can fill it up with good mid range receivers
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: up the middle and decent running back still, and not
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: need all these punt wide receivers or punt tight ends
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: or anything like that. So there is ways you can
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: do it, but that's what I'm thinking about. And then,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: Taking it into the other side of it, it's like,
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: then what are the other lineups that you're up against?
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: I will say last week, this was the prime candidate
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: for this, but like Detroit, Arizona. Well, it's got such
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: a massive total gap away. It's like, yeah, but there's
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: 12 games or 11, whatever it was last week. It's like,
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: there's probably a game. You're just going off of Vegas totals,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: which are very accurate over time. And we get that,
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: but there's going to be a game or two that
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: pop off. And then there's going to be a game
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: or two that pop off that also have a pretty,
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: you know, pretty tight target trees or ways that you
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: would build it in a way that made sense. Swift,
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: very popular on that slate. If people liked Christian Watson, well,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: lo and behold, you could play Watson with Watson, golden
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: and love with Swift. And it allowed you to fit
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: Jalen Warren. It allowed you to fit Brock Bowers or
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: Gibbs or whatever you want to get in there, like
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: could still fit no problem. So sometimes that's the key
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: as well. People always act like, oh, this total is
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: so low. A team's only going to put up 19.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: Like the Titans, what is their team total this week?
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: 19 and a half or something? It's low. It might
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: be 16 and a half, 19 and a half. I'm
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: getting it confused. But anyway, we get it. It's less
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: than 20. Well, what happens if they put up 19 points? Oh,
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: it's an under on the 19 and a half, but
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: somebody put up fantasy points if they score 19 points.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: So you still have to think about what does that mean?
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: What could it be? And for some teams, it might
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: be one guy that, that could be Tony Pollard gets
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: two goal line touchdowns on ward bombs to the end
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: zone that take gets mauled or anything like that. And
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: it's like, okay, Pollard gets that. He's the game goes
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: back and forth in the beginning a little bit. Pollard
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: ends up being the cheap, running back that you need.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: And you're like, Holy shit. He was getting all the
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: attempts before this game. It could go that way. And
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: if it does, you're going to need that. Oh, but
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: they only scored 19 points, but Pollard had two touchdowns
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: and a hundred yards, et cetera, et cetera. You're like, damn,
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: they still need, you were still needed.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: That's kind of how I look at this type of stuff. So, um,
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: it matters about that stuff when you're going into it
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: as well. Anything else you want to add on that topic?
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: If not, I'd like to get to the chalk build
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: for the week here. Yeah.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: Oh, Well, maybe not. Maybe we should come back. What
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: do you want to do? Do you want to come
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: back to this game or do you want to, now
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: that we've started to talk about it, just kind of
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: talk through all the different ways that we could potentially
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: get unique?
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: Because it's going to be, again, ways to leverage and
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: we know it's going to mix in there, but I'm
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: actually very curious. I think it'll help apply to that
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: conversation if we do get sort of what we see
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: being the popular build in. So give me your starting
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: point on that and then we'll see like how it
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: flips to that version and then we can talk about
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: how we can leverage all of it together. So we'll
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: just start with this.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: Cool. So yeah, in terms of the chalk build, I
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: think it's definitely a week where people want to jam
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: in some studs, right? Like the three most popular guys
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: that I've got at or above 40% in single entries
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: and high stakes are Puka, Bajon, and Drake London. So
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: that's $ 8, 100, $ 8, 700, $ 7, 000. People are going to need to
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: save money somewhere. And it does look to me like
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: the two places people are saving money most frequently are
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: wide receiver and tight end, right? Like we've got the
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: worthy chalk, we've got likely and Goddard chalk. Uh, I,
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: I think there will be some cheap running back usage,
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: but like quote unquote cheap running back is what, you know,
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: Braylon Allen at $ 5, 700. Whereas a lot of the guys
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: that we're already talking about at wide receivers, Xavier worthy, uh,
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: Luther burden, like all these guys are cheaper than that.
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: Cornell Tate $ 5, 000. So I think it definitely seems to
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: me like Outside of Algier, who might be somewhat popular
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: at $ 4, 800, kind of TBD on that one. We'll see
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: how much people actually like that or feel the need
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: to go to that. But it definitely seems to me
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: like the build is primarily save money at tight end
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: and wide receiver so that you can spend up elsewhere.
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: And uh, and that's, that's a fun one, I think,
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: to try and counter and be better than, because I
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: think that there are some, some really intriguing options, both
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: like in the mid range and high pricing of wide receiver,
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: but then also rock powers. Right. And so anytime there's
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: a lot of cheap tight end ownership, I'm very interested
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: in in the expensive tight end Brock Bowers route and
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: hope that he can just dominate this slate.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: I'm interested in Bowers every week right now because like
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: I said, continuously, you've said it, I've said it, we've
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: been just talking about it consistently. It's like, I don't
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: think people understand. They just constantly, maybe I said this
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: already if I did because I've just been saying it
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: a million times, but I think I said it pre-show
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: to you, but it's like, Oh, now he's all the
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: way up to 7,500. Like people just keep going nuts
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: about this price. It's a capped onesie position. They can't make,
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: he's scoring better than your $ 9, 000 wide receivers week after week,
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: but he can't get to that price. So you have
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: to figure it out elsewhere. And then people act like
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: it's some crazy thing to figure it out. It's like,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: you can, you have four or five receivers that are
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: value plays. You've got running backs that are plenty of
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: them from 4,800 to 6,300 that there's options you can
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: go to. It's like, there's, There's so many ways to
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: go to be able to fit them in if you
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: want to. But again, people just choose not to in
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: a lot of cases. And they'll say, oh, he's still
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: getting ownership. What was he last week?
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: 12, 15%.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: Like it's 80 to 90% of the people aren't playing him.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: That's a pretty big number, right? So yeah, I just
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: threw this version up. Tell me where it's horrible if
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: you want, but I just, I got to, it ends
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: up being an extra wide receiver, but Jameis- It's got neighbors.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: I went with Braylon Allen and the Jets. Jets seem
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: to be pretty popular down low for a cheap tee.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: It's got Goddard. It's got Worthy. It's got Puka. It's
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: got London. And I think Williams is also going to
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: be very popular on this slate at 6,800, especially when
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: people are, I mean, look, any version, if they build
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: a version with him and Puka, they're like, oh, I
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: can get to Stafford. If they're going to do a
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: Stafford stack without him, okay, then that's the only spot
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: he's not in. But then what that makes their brain
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: do is say, oh, if I'm not on a Stafford
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: lineup and I'm not on Puka, I better get Williams
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: in there. So it's like he pretty much ends up
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: in a lot of lineups. That's why I tried to
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: include him over making something work to get to Bijan.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: But I'm sure there's just a version of this that
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: swaps out London. I don't know if it's man, I'm
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: trying to think about what it is. Like if people
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: didn't go, I just, they're going to Puka. So I'm
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: trying to figure out what the version is where you
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: get to the, you know, you've seen the version with
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: like neighbors likely, and then maybe John somehow gets into it.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: It's that's. Yeah.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: I think, I think one of the things we can
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: do here is we could take out James and you
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: could go Stafford and it'd just be a skinny between
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: Stafford and Puka. And then people will use double tight end.
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: And so that could be, you know, Higby instead of
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: neighbors and that, that makes the rest work.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let's see. Higbee. And then let's get back to Puka, obviously.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: And then what do we got left? 7850. I might
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: be able to get Bijon and London. How's that version
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: for you?
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: So that to me like- Random because it's probably not
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: exactly the chalk build, but the idea of like you
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: can still fit a lot in when you do that
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: and pick the poison.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't necessarily call it the chalk build,
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: but I also think that there isn't really a chalk build.
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: What we've been able to do here is show that
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: like- the pieces exist such that people can correlate and
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: jam in all the studs that they want. And who
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: does that force people onto? Like, okay, that this, this
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: helps explain why Xavier worthy is going to be over
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: on this week. It's not because 30% of people think
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: Xavier worthy is an awesome play. It's that 30% of
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: people think that Xavier worthy is a good enough play
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: to warrant using in order to fit all the studs
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: that they want. And so I think, I think this
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: is a really helpful view of things. And then, You know,
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: there are other pieces you threw Kyron in there. And
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: I think we're going to talk a little bit more
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: about Kyron soon.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: Yes, I think so as well. So one thing you
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: said there, and it can go back to now the
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: Chicago Atlanta conversation, because we're moving into like how to leverage.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: There we go. Lucky dog on the week. Yeah.
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: So I mentioned that my dad's my my brother and
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: my dad, I think, just went to breakfast. So the
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: two dogs are now locked in here and whining. So
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: if you hear that, it's this guy.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: You usually mean what's what's the name?
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: This one's Poe. Named after the Potomac River. Yeah, and
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: Chance is on the bed in there.
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: All right, Poe and Chance.
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: Chance won't be an issue. Chance is the best.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: Polka Nakua over there. That's a sign. We got to
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: get it in this week. So let's look at it
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: here for a second to say back to the Chicago
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Atlanta because I think the one thing key to me
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: that you pointed out is like the, you know, you
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: see this and it's not really a chalk build. It's
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: very centered around, let's say, even Allen Robinson-Williams. London, Puka, Worthy, Goddard, Likely,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: and then you could fill in a few more spots
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: if you want Neighbors, maybe. So there's versions of that,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: but it's because it's so easy to flip it, right?
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: Someone says, well, I don't want Bijon and London together. Okay, well,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: let me look at this for a second. All right,
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: I want to see what this does. Well, let me
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: go to Jameis Winston. Let me go to Neighbors. Now
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: I feel much better about that. And oh, I don't
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: need Higby. I got 1,800 bucks left. What can I
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: get for, you know, 5,200? Oh, you go down and see...
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know who's in this range that you want
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: to go to. I don't really love anything right here.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Oh, wait.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: I heard that I could get likely into this, and
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: now I can bump up my defense, and I heard
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: that the Panthers are playing against Tanner McKee. So where's
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: the Panthers at? I should just sort it by ownership,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: and we'll find them quickly.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they'll be very, very popular.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Right. And so you got, you know, someone says, oh,
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: I don't have a run back for this, but I've
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: got Winston. I've got neighbors. I've got likely. I mean,
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: of course, the same thing that happened last week, the
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: exact same thing is going to happen this week. And
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: they're all going to get 30 plus points or whatever.
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: So let me get them in there. Allen still no Hall,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: still no Adonai Mitchell. It's been getting a huge workload. Bijan,
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: he's the guy I want in this game. He's my
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: piece of that Atlanta game. And then Puka is the
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: best play. Worthy's in that one spot. That makes a
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: ton of sense. And then I've got, you know, goddard
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: against the panthers they might not like so let's put
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: likely in there like you can move it around but
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: you get the gist of what i'm trying to say
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: right you can get to these builds pretty easily or
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: pretty comfortably where you just you know can put this stuff.
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: In it's funny like i this is the exact thing
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: that i was going to suggest doing next is just
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: showing that like okay no matter what stack we put
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: in whether it's you know jamis likely and neighbors people
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: are going to find ways to to build something similar
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: to this and yeah it's basically like we're going to
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: see a lot of stacks this week where just like
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: the worthy play. It's not that people necessarily love the stack.
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: It's that they think, Hey, you know what? I was
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: able to correlate and save enough money here that I
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: can go get the studs that I want. And so
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: I think that's kind of the number one thing that
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: we need to think about this week. Like for example,
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: I have a really contrarian, a cheap stack that I'll
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: talk about that I have interest in. Am I doing
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: that so that I can go play the same studs
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: that everyone else is playing? Or am I doing that
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: so I can play different studs like that? That's the
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: kind of thing that we need to be asking ourselves
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: this week. Yeah.
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: I'm just trying to like a lot of these versions again,
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: we'll see what people flip it to. But again, maybe it's,
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: it's not Bijan and it's not Puka. And that's what
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: I said. I think there's versions of this where people
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: just get comfortable and say, I'd rather have Puka, but
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: they also can easily talk themselves into saying, well, he's
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: not going to get 24 targets again. So I'll just
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: play London. And now I've got 6,700 bucks left. I
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: can get, you know, deandre swift michael wilson davante adams
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: whatever you want and this is just one version of
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: it what what is this six who's that uh you
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: know maybe it's warren and the jets d or something
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: like that my point being there's just a ton of
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: different ways that you could look at it i've got
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: the panthers in there now i could take this down
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: to where's the jets here let's see the jets now
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: i feel comfortable with what's his name there um goddard
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: And that leaves me 7,900. Again, you kind of landed
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: some of these dead zones, but you're close enough to
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: be able to make a move. Like again, Puka gets
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: in there and then you got the money left over
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: for how much was, uh, Stafford 64. Yeah. You're getting
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: pretty close with it, but you get, you get the
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: idea of how all these guys can kind of fit
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: into a build together. So sticking with that Chicago Atlanta, right.
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: You talked about it earlier of like ways to get
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: different with it. What, what is your first thought when
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: we go to leverage something like that on this slate for, uh,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: for your builds?
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: Well, it's kind of a perfect segue. Cause, uh, that,
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: that comment from Berger just now, uh, he has the,
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: he's basically saying, you know, the Kirk Trey Bowers conditional
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: ownership is so high, but maybe, uh, You can get
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: different elsewhere. The conditional ownerships don't matter for stacks that
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: are this cheap, and they don't really matter for stacks
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: that are this contrarian. Again, it's not like this is
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: a super, super unique stack, but when we care about
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: conditional ownership within the stack, it's when we are trying to,
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: number one, win the slate with a specific stack. And
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: the Chicago Atlanta game, I think, is a really good
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: example of the type of stack where we should care
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: about the conditional ownership within the stack. Because number one,
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: if you're using like all the main pieces of this stack,
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: you're using Caleb, you're using Bijan, you're using Drake London.
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: There's just not a whole lot of salary you have
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: elsewhere to go find potential separators, right? Like even if
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: you think that Xavier Worthy is a good play this week,
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: you probably don't think that he's going to win you
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: the slate, right? You're just thinking he does well enough
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: so that the other guys can win you the slate.
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: So that's when conditional ownership really matters. I don't really
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: care about it with Kirk, Trey and Bowers, but As
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: it pertains to the Chicago stack, the first question that
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: I had is, how many people are going to be
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: willing to use Bajon and London together? And so the
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: first thing that I brought up is the conditional ownership
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: for Bajon went up. London is in and neither quarterback
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: from this game is used. And there we do see
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: that there's a clear preference to use just one and
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: not both. We get 39% overall ownership for Bajon, 25%
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: conditional ownership with London in, neither quarterback in. The problem
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: here is that doesn't translate to And even when it's
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: Caleb who's in, so, you know, typically we would say,
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: all right, they're more likely to be used together with Penix.
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: Even with Caleb in, we've got 52 and a half
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: projected conditional ownership for Bajon with Caleb and Drake London in.
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: That's a little bit scary to me. That tells me
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: that like, you know, just having that combination and getting
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: the big score from all those guys, from Caleb, from London,
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: from Bajon, they can't win me the slate. There are
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: going to be way too many other people with that combination.
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: I have to get the cheapies right to make that work.
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: That's not my preferred build, right? Like I never want
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: to win slates by having the right $ 3, 300 guy, unless
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: it's potentially part of the stack. And so I've got
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: the conditional ownership tool up. I don't know if you
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: want to show it here, Tambo, but there are a
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: couple of views that I think are really interesting here.
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: So again, Caleb in, Drake London in, Let's take a
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: look at all of the flex plays from this game.
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: You can see a lot of conditional ownership on Bajon. Tons,
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: of course, on Burden and Rome and Loveland. But there
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: are two guys who really stand out to me as,
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: you know what, that's a really reasonable conditional ownership. The
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: first is DeAndre Swift at just 14%. And then the
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: second is Kalief Raymond way down here at 6.3%. I
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: always like trying to find a contrarian way to play
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: a stack. that also saves me money. Cause now I
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: get the double out of like, I don't, I don't
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: necessarily need Raymond to beat burden, to beat Rome, to
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: beat Loveland. I just need him to do somewhat similar
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: enough to those guys that now that savings, whether it's
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: the $ 400 to Loveland or, you know, a thousand or
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: 1500 to Rome or burden. Now I can potentially separate
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: from these stacks because I get one more really good player.
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: You know, maybe that means, Malik neighbors instead of Carnell Tate,
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: for example, and maybe Tate has the same game that
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: he had just had last week and neighbors has the
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: same game he just had last week. And now I
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: just won by 30 points in that spot of my lineup.
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: So that's, I think a really intriguing way to do
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: this and actually find a contrarian way to build this, uh,
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: this game stack that is really, I don't think sacrificing
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: a ton from a ceiling or projection standpoint.
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: And another thing about that, too, is just from the
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: NFL roster construction data, a lot of people don't stack
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: their quarterback with their running back or not as much
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: as they seemingly should. And that's like when you're doubling
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: down and seeing that it's again, what we talked about
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: earlier in the topical segment of just going through some
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: ideas and your evergreen things. It's like, can you see
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: it being different in an intelligent way? Well, what could
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: be more than that? Your conditional ownership is showing it
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: works out. It obviously makes sense. By the way, Manunga
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: is still out. Like it's not like strip just got worse,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: but his 17 points last week wasn't satisfying. Well, just
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: like neighbors may or may not get 30 this week.
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: Swift could get 30 this week and not 17. I
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: could flip flop there. And like just an example. So, um,
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: and then you put the roster construction data to say, well,
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: that would make sense too. And then you put some
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: game theory on it. Well, the right Raymond is an
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: exact example of what we talked about earlier with the
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: worthy situation. It's like, could you just play another guy?
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: Could you just play, um, Goddard at tight end and
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: then get a better wide receiver? Yeah. It probably project better.
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: but Raymond fits the stack. If he actually has a ceiling,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: he eats into the popular guys in the conditional ownership
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: and all of that. And now you still have the
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: money for London and or Bijan. Like you can still
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: get after this game. And with Swift being in it,
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: the conditional ownership, Raymond by himself, plus being in it,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: like all those factors adding up, it doesn't matter what
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: London is anymore or what Bijan is anymore. So yeah,
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: I think it's kind of interesting from that perspective when
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: you do look at it and just see what you
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: can do differently. Would you carry on with that at all? Like,
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: are you saying like if you would go, let's say
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: it was Caleb Swift, Raymond, are you kind of cutting
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: it off and then just picking your poison on London
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: versus Bijan first off? That's my first question. You can
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: answer it however you like.
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think if I'm using Raymond, I'm trying to
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: make the full game stack a little bit cheaper. And
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: so I'd probably leave it as just Caleb Raymond on
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: the Chicago side. and then go with both Bajon and
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: London on the Atlanta side and do it that way.
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: This is another kind of interesting view. So I put
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: Penix in instead of Caleb. And you can see the
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: Bajon ownership is crazy, crazy high. Swift comes up a
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: decent amount. Vernon and Rome are still coming up, but
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: they're not skyrocketing. This is really interesting to me. Raymond,
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: just 0.7 conditional ownership. You get the huge bump on pits,
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: which also means Loveland's conditional ownership comes down. So that's
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: another interesting route is like, what about Pennix, London, Bajon
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: with the Loveland bring back? And, and there you're saying like,
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: you know, one of the things we know is when
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: tight ends tend to have their biggest games, think like
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: the Dalton Schultz chalk week this, this year, a lot
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: of that is the offense is struggling to get the
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: explosives down the field. And it's just eight to 12
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: yards over and over again to the tight end in
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: the middle of the field, which doesn't usually lead to
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: ceiling performances from the quarterback. So again, one of the
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: ways that Pennix keeps pace with Caleb is if the
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: Chicago offense has to run on the ground and through
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: the tight end instead, and then you get the maybe
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: explosives on the Atlanta side instead. So that also is
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: an intriguing way. I think there are a number of answers,
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: but you know, this, this is kind of like the
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: ultimate reason why I built this conditional ownership tool. I
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: think this makes stacking in an intelligent way, just infinitely
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: easier than it used to be.
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Another thing I think about too, is if you
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: would like the Pennix Bijon, London, uh, fine. But then
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: like just Raymond to speed the game up, but he's the,
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: he's the Trey Tucker version of what we talked about earlier.
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: He's what, he's the guy you need that has the
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: 40 yard touchdown, everything. But it allows you now to
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: boost up and still save these other spots. And that
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: was going to be my second part. I know you
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: talked already about like double doubling it and just getting
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: Bijan and London in there. My thought process too, was
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: going to like, if you're doing the Raymond thing and,
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: In the sense of that, you're using a $ 3, 900 wide
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: receiver to eat into, which can eat into Odunze and
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: Burden or just enough that it makes it worth it
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: and boosts up your ability to get more at other positions.
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: Is there any thought process to like, maybe that's where
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: you play Bijan because you can boost up, like everyone has,
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: like a lot of people have London, so a lot
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: of people have Bijan, but you'd be able to get
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: two more positions. explosive wide receivers that could take from
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: the Chicago guys, but also take from London and you
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: still get Bijon in those stacks, but it makes sense. Yeah.
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is another one of the parts of
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: this slate that I'm having such a hard time thinking
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: through because in that scenario, like I kind of think
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: I'd rather just have one of the, one of the
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: quarterbacks then that's helped that's being carried by one of
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: those elite alpha wide receivers. Right. And so I had
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: a lot of success last week. I had, I cashed,
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: with main slate with zero from, uh, Roman Wilson and 1.6
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: from Casey conception, uh, whatever I got from them. So I,
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: you know, and that was because I played through the
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: alpha wide receivers of Denzel Boston and Garrett Wilson in
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: that game. I had Deshaun Watson who did very little, um,
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: but they did enough and Wilson was awesome. And so
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: I feel like if I'm, if I'm just building a
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: stack to save that much money so that I can
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: go get like alpha receivers elsewhere. Well, shouldn't I just
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: be using a quarterback that benefits from those alpha receiver
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: ceiling performances. So it's, it's hard to think through that way,
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: but at the same time, like this game environment is
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: so good that I feel, I feel very strongly that
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: fantasy points are going to be scored here. So if
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: I don't want the, you know, the, the main Chicago
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: wide receivers, if I don't want both London and Bajon,
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: it's like, okay, well that, probably means someone cheap is
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: doing really well in this game. And, and so it's,
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: it's very much in play to do it that way.
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: And it's, it's one of the like really, really tricky
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: things about this.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: Like, I will say this is still tricky though, to
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: get to a good tight end. I mean, a good
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: is subjective. So I should say like, and one of
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: the expensive tight ends, because even if you drop down
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: to Penix at 5K, if you are dropping almost 9K
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: on Bijon and 7K on London, yes, that unlocks their ceiling.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: So it should be great for everything. But if you've
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: even got Swift and Raymond in there and go with
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: like a cheap running back, cheap D, you're still only
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: left with 5K per position and you need a tight
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: end and a wide receiver. So even if you punted
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: at wide receiver, it's going to be really tricky to
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: be able to get up. You're not going to get
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: to like a, a Brock Bowers or anything like that.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: So I'd be thinking about that for those as you're building, that's,
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: that's where you want to be thinking that thought as well.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: What does that leave me for money? And I'm just
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: playing around with it, looking at a few situations, but yeah,
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: There's some interesting ways you can go and just versions
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: of that that I looked at that would at least
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: make sense, right? That you can get to. So where
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: do you want to go next when it comes to
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: leveraging the chalk build? I'm just trying to put a
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: few things together here and see what I've got.
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: There's a question in the chat that I think is
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: interesting to answer here, which is like, given how many
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: people are trying to save money at tight end, does
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: it make sense to use both Bowers and McBride? So
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: here's another kind of conditional ownership view where we see
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: if Bowers is in McBride's conditional ownership is going down
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: to 1.2%. And so this isn't like universal of all
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: tight ends, right? Like you see Kelsey's a little bit
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: more than you'd expect. Now, the reason why, so the
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: conditional ownership goes down here to 4% and then you
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: still get a positive Delta. Why is that? Well, because
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: there's now fewer spots. So this is essentially saying like, if,
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: if all of these guys were independent of one another,
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: if there was no connection between who, someone clicks on
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: once they've already clicked on somebody else, is this more
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: or less than what you'd expect? And so this is
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: less than for McBride, which does mean that people are
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: actively trying not to put these guys together. So there
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: is an advantage there. You can see that a ton
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: with likely, which is, I think is pretty surprising, which
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: basically says like when people go too likely they're trying
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: to get neighbors and they're trying to get a lobby
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: in there. And that in and of itself makes them
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: just like, it's impossible to go get Bowers now too,
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: especially because they probably want one of Bajon or London,
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: things of that nature. And so you can find some
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: really cool stuff there, but at the same rate, like
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: you don't get that effect with Frymuth. You don't get
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: that effect with Fannin. And so, you know, you don't
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: get it with Goddard. And so that part I think
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: is really interesting to see. This is a long-winded way
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: of saying this is something I've been opposed to in
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: the past, but I think it probably makes a little
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: bit more sense than I've given it credit for because
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: of how low this conditional ownership is. If you get
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: 35 from Bowers and 30 from McBride, you're way ahead
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: of everybody. They're starting to get to a price where
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: I don't really... So essentially like the reason why I've
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: been against this in the past is because if you're
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: using both these guys, you're not just hoping that they
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: beat all of these other tight ends and separate from
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: the tight end position, but you're also now asking them
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: to separate from Olave and James Cook and Tet and
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: Zay Flowers and Drake London. That's a much larger ask
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: of these guys. Yeah. But when they do have their
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: ceiling performances, yeah, it's going to be that much more
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: valuable because that combination is that much lower on. So
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: it's still something like, I'm very hesitant about, and I'm
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: skeptical even when it sims really well. But given the
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: fact that this sort of thing has simmed pretty well,
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: and now I see the conditional ownership that maybe explains
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: why it sims better than I've expected, it's something that's
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: growing on me a little bit. I wouldn't go so
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: far as to say I'm gung-ho for it by any
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: means yet, but it's probably better than I've given credit
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: for in the past. Yeah.
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: For me, it's typically the same, but I will say this.
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: So it's a couple of different ways to say it.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: One is The slate dynamics matter when you go and
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: look at that range. It's to what the reason it is,
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: because what Alex's point is, you're using up a flex
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: that can be any of these guys. I know you
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: say like, oh, Trey McBride, 72. You I have to
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: just compare it to this because it's dollar for dollar
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: and it's one. I get it. But, you know, the
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: defense has a place that it can go. There's another
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: way you can make a swap to find 500 bucks
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: either way. So realistically, and I'll go up a little
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: bit further, I'll say 800, because it just does exist,
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: whether you want to agree with me or not. We're
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: not asking, everyone always acts like it has to be
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: a 1v1 swap, as if you're not allowed to change
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: your lineup. It's the same rant or tambo tangent that
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: I gave on garbage time points. Oh man, Brissette always
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: gets his stuff in garbage time. This is dumb, okay?
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: I looked at the DraftKings scoring, doesn't say you don't
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: get the same points during garbage time. It's like they count.
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: So however they get them, they get them. You have
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: the ability to go further, So to Alex's point, without
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: even getting aggressive and including Puka, because he might already
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: be in there, but you've got JT, Olave, James Cook,
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: Ted McMillan, Zay, London, Warren, who else here? Let's use
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: like some real guys. Kyron, like Swift, all those options
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: are in the realm. Now on the flip side of
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: that is if, to me, it's actually way more about
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: does Trey McBride fit your lineup? Because if you're doing
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: something there where it makes sense, then now I can't
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: go against my word on, you know, why would you
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: play those other guys when you can just play Bowers
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: at $ 7, 500? So that's how I would think about it.
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: And it's kind of the same thing, not a cop-out,
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: but it's to note, I think the McBride part matters
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: more to me because if you're using McBride in an
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: intelligent way and saying that he fits the build or
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: he's what's going to make my Stafford lineup tick, I
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: actually want this to be a ceiling spot. So I've
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: got my Stafford stack with McBride, but I happen to
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: have the money left over for Olave, or for bowers
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: well then i might say okay then i'm fine with
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: it because realistically it's like you don't really have anything
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: else going on with it you don't have shock you
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: don't have winston you don't have anything that really requires
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: a lobby and obviously we know bowers is at 7500
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: still a good deal so to me that's where i
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: would consider it a little bit differently but i think
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: people are just asking it as like this is my
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: point from last week um take down breakdown. We did
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: this on Monday. If you just looked at how they
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: started the line, like, again, we don't know how someone
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: actually did it, but I think this is what I'm
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: trying to say. People are starting their lineup going to
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: really good tight ends. Now what? And they put them
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: both in. It's, it should be the other way. It's
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: like you have McBride, your lineup makes sense. And then
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: you're like, all right, I could play Bowers here. Does
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: that make sense? Well, now it does, even though it's
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: the same ending point as your starting point, one makes
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: more sense than the other. Last week, we don't know,
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: but we were just reverse engineering and having fun with it.
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: But the guy who won the Millie maker, wasn't that crazy?
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: It had like Warren, no doubt. It had Swift, no
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: man on guy. It like all the stuff kind of
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: made sense when you put it together opposite Swift, it
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: had Watson, but he wasn't playing love, but he had
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: love in his pool heavily. So it's like in a
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: line that doesn't have like it all made perfect sense.
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: And if you really just thought about it, everyone always says,
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: all right, what quarterback are we going to? And as
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: if you have to stack first, it's like, all right,
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: what do I want in my lineup? That's almost a non-negotiable.
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: Like I'm not moving off this. I'm going to try
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: and find out any, again, later on, you might have
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: to make a slight move and make some of these decisions.
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: And that's why 2v2s exist and things that we always
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: talk about. But if you have a starting point, the
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: heart of your lineup doesn't always need to be the
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: quarterback stack. Like everybody just assumes. It's easy to work
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: your lineup that way, but you can also get into
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: like your biases and things that way too, where you're like,
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: all right, I got this stack. Now I need these
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: cheap running backs because I need money and boom, boom.
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: And it looks good and makes sense. But you're realized like, damn,
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: I didn't even play my favorite running back in that lineup,
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: or I didn't play my top receiver that I had.
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: And Somebody had it last week. They had, you know,
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: their pool was littered with these three wide receivers that
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: they were high on, but that was like the piece
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: they could have used in their lineup and to close
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: it out. And it would have been a much bigger
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: week for them. And it's like, they didn't work backwards. They,
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: that lineup, they just went and built and were like, damn,
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: I didn't even play my, my top own stuff. And
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: so you liked it and loved it in another spot.
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: But when you went to your single entry, whatever process
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: you had there eliminated your top owned guys and favorite exposures.
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: So I shouldn't say top on your top exposures on
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: the slate, which I'm assuming you wouldn't expose yourself to
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: them if you didn't like them for the slate. So
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: it's just funny how that stuff works. But anything else
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: to add on just roster construction process when it comes to,
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: you know, where do you start and what do you
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: find your way getting to to start your lineup build?
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: No, I think that covered it well. And I think
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: that it's kind of important to have the starting point
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: vary depending on the slate. And so like the, the
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: way that I like to approach it is I try
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: to find, you know, the, the largest price inefficiencies and
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: the largest ownership inefficiencies and kind of build around those,
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: whatever they.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: Think they are. Yeah. One other thing I'll add too,
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: because somebody brought it up before and we talked about
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: it throughout the week here. I have one of the, um,
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: the mastermind Q and a round tables, and this was
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: a good topic. And so I'll bring it up here.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: Also DFS mastermind.com. If you guys want to check that out,
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: but we talked about the concept of like I always
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: use it of like building out and I call it 40,000
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: feet above. I know it's a single entry show, but
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: this is about single entry. Like I like to build
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: everything out first and, And then work backwards from that
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: because it allows me to see like, what am I
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: exposed to? What combos go together that I might not
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: have been thinking about? But realistically, the big part for me, Alex,
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: is when you start to see what lineups look the
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: best together and not just like anyone this week could say, oh,
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: you know, I think Josh Allen's in a smash spot. Yeah, probably.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: And Josh Allen's likely to have a very good week.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: But do those lineups come together or are you like, damn,
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: I hate this lineup. And there's like, I'm forcing this,
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: I'm forcing that. I'm missing three of my favorite guys
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: now because of it. It's like, if you don't work
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: out to see what that looks like, and even if
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: you're playing single entry, you can do this. You can
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: use an optimizer or anything that you have access to
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: and put like eight of your favorite quarterbacks in. and
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: leave a lot of the other stuff but let's just
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: see lineups with those stat you got your rules or
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: your optimizer sim is putting out for you and you
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: start to see like what does that look like don't
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: just go by median projection and all of that look
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: at like some of the game theory angles look at
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: wow that stack makes sense that's my favorite running back
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: that's my favorite titan and i noticed from watching the
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: show today that that's a high leverage point on this
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: like damn that's got.
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: It all Yeah, that's the point that I was going
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: to add is like, you know, sometimes you're going to
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: look at lineups and you're going to say like, yeah, okay,
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: I like all the plays in this lineup, but it
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: feels a little bit like I'm just hoping that I'm
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: right about all these guys. Whereas with this stack, I
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: like all the plays and they tell a very coherent
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: story about how certain chalk that I'm not using fails,
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: so on and so forth. So that one's probably better
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: from a game theory and just like from a playing
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: the game of DFS perspective.
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: A hundred percent. And I think also that's where your
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: focus should be. Again, people, we try and steer people
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: in the right direction. It's like the other way. And
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: it goes kind of to Ryan Coleman's question here said,
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: and we've talked a ton about this in the past.
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: We don't have to rehash the whole thing, but it
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: says one, my first 55 ticket besides avoiding playing it safe,
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: which can mean a lot of things by the way,
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: but it says any other advice for differences in playing
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: a higher entry type tournament. I think that would be
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: one of the key concepts is a lot of people
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: would look at even a lineup. That's not super popular.
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: Let's say it's like a, I don't know, this week
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: we just talked about it earlier, but let's say it
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: is the Kirk Cousins, Trey Tucker, Brock Bowers, Keon Coleman stack.
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: And it's like, because they feel like it's different enough
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: and they're good with it, but then they don't really
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: love the lineup or the rest of it. And it's
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: not like it is the best by far lineup or
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: anything like that. It's just they feel good a little bit,
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: but then they see another lineup where they just see,
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: oh man, that really flows together. It would leverage what
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: everybody's doing here. It still has an even better projection.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: it still sims well if they're using sims like there's
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: there's all these other factors to it and it tells
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: a better story and it's not the same as everybody
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: else is going to be doing in just like one
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: one-off different way that to me is like when you're
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: looking for potential for both, right? You've got floor, you've
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: got upside, you've got something that makes sense. You've got
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: something that you can go to war with and say,
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: if it didn't work out, at least I went to
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: war with what was best for this tournament. And that
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: that's called lineup selection. A lot of people focus on
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: contest selection and you don't need to worry about it.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: You have a 555 ticket. Your contest has been selected,
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: but you do need to focus on lineup selection. It's
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: very rarely talked about in the industry. I know Alex
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: and I talk about it a ton, but that to
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: me matters so much more in this scenario.
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I have a pretty lengthy kind of just strategy
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: channel in my Discord dedicated to exactly this question. Although
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: I would phrase it slightly different. It's not the unique
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: thing about your experience this week, Ryan is not that
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: it's a higher entry fee tournament. It's that you're going
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: up against a lot of people who have a lot
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: of different entries and you only have the one single bullet.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: And so there's, there's a lot of strategy kind of
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: revolved around how you can take that advantage away from
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: the people who have so many more bullets than you
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: do here. We did a segment on this last week,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: so you can go check out last week's leverage lane.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: You know, you'll see the timestamp that, that kind of,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: spells that out. And like the, the TLDR version is
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: essentially the thing you want to avoid is running into
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: lineups from, you know, one guy where let's say it's
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: the Chicago Atlanta game this week, right. Where they, they
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: have that game stacked 20 different ways. And like, there's,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: there isn't a combination of the main players where they
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: could have a quarterback two on one side and one
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: on the other. So, you know, the, the, the four
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: guys from that one game stack, as a whole where
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: you get the combination, right? And they don't, if you
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: get the combination, right, they've got that combination. If you
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: don't get the combination, right, there's a good chance they
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: have that combination. And so my, my biggest piece of
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: advice is try to land on either a game or
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: an iteration of the most popular game. That is so
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: unique that you're not going up against multiple iterations of
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: the same lineup that you have, where someone else just like,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: you know, pick the, pick the three weakest spots in
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: the lineup, You only have one chance to get those
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: three right. They have 10 different chances to get those
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: three right because they have the same iteration over and
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: over and over again, kind of built around getting that
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: weakest part of the lineup correct. That's the thing you
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: want to avoid as much as possible.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: This is such a perfect segue. I want to take
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: one break in between to show something that goes with
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: Ryan's questions. We can look this stuff up now, but
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: that's going to go with pick a lane in a
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: second when we talk about it, because there's all these
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: types of things that pick a lane, an example for people.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: When we get there, like, I'm just going to ask Alex,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: like worthy or Kelsey. right and obviously i want the
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: game theory behind it and the onesie position and like
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: how that leverage like it goes right in with leverage
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: lane but um dfs os if you guys haven't checked
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: it out dfsos.com see how the best dfs players actually
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: play if you go to the dashboard and you can
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: use code ship it to get half price it's 29
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: bucks a month it does cost but there's a ton
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: of data that you can look up but if you
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: go to slate review here alex and i'm going to
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: try and look it up change it to Did we
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: have a 555 this month already? I'm just trying to see.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it was this month. It might've
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: been like at the end of last month.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there's been a couple of megas there, but if
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: I go to September then, and let's look on Sundays,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: this is it, right? Yeah, 5,493 entries. If you go
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: in and see, I'm trying to see here like, man,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: I'm always the worst with this for looking it up
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: on the fly, but I'm sure it's very easy. I
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: just was trying to see how many people Max entered
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: this contest and I know the data is there. So apologies, but, um,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: do the math. Let's do it separately then. Cause I
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: don't have it right in front of me and it's,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: it's my bad for not knowing that's off.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: It's a lot. And it's, you know, the, the other
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: thing is it's not even necessarily just about like what
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: percentage of people or what percentage of entries are part
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: of larger portfolios. It's also recognizing that the sharpest players
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: are also the most likely to have multiple lineups. And so,
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: when you're thinking about, okay, how do I win this melee?
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: The number one thing you have to do is you
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: have to beat all of the people who have a
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: bunch of different lineups because they're the best players and
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: they have the advantage of being able to inversely correlate
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: between their lineups.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was trying to find it. I don't see
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: it here, but I just want to note it off
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: the top. Like the quickest math is how many people
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: would you estimate out of the 54, 93 entries? Or
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: just say it this way, it is 150 max. How
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: many people do you think maxed the tournament? 100?
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would put it something like that. I don't
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: really know.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: Right, so if we do the 100, and obviously the
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: thought process is, well, is it 100? No, it can't
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: be 100.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: That would be 15,000? Yeah, that's what I said.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: We're way off. It's 54.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: Oh, it's 2,000 contestants? So yeah, I would guess something like,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: I don't know, 15 to 20 are full maxing it,
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: but then there are also a bunch that have 15,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: and there are also a bunch that have 25 or
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: something like that, and they can all do the same
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: sort of thing.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's 150 is the max for this
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: one though. I guess my point was what I was
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: trying to show is even if it's only, I don't know,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: like however many people would be, the point is when
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: people say like, I'll get to the point. When someone's like, hey,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: I want to play this stack because yeah, it's not
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: that popular, but this quarterback is only, you know, 10%.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: There's a couple that are 14 and 15. I'm really
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: playing the third highest quarterback. And you look to conditional
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: ownership and you can apply all these things together. The
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: main point being is that if 10% are on a quarterback,
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: that's over 500 lineups that you're up against. Like your
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: one lineup is still standing in a 500 person room.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: And yes, there's other spots to get different. We harp
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: on this all the time. But it's not to say
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: go completely off the wall. It's to look at something
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: like what Alex was just talking about, where if you
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: had a Penix, Bijon, London, Raymond Swift, you're on the
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: same game. But man, you are on different spots there
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: in that game. And you're in different ways within that game.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: So even if 500 lineups have Caleb Williams... How many
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: of them have Caleb, or sorry, Penix? How many of
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: those Penix lineups have Swift and Raymond in them? You
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: could be down to a room of three, if not less,
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: just like that. And it's like, damn, I'm in the
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: same spot everybody else was chilling, but I'm just that
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: much different when the game starts going that way. And
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: then the burden, you know, failure happens. And then a
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: bunch of people exit the room. Like, they're already done.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: They've got this massive... failure in their lineup and maybe
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: they're not all the way done they pick it up
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: elsewhere but my point being if Raymond really smashes not
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: only do you have a unique construction but while you
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: were standing in a busy room to start you are
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: able to I sound like AI right now standing in
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: or they always say oh you're in the room with
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: this and you know in in a room like that
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: you're not as sharp or something but my point being
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: I always use the the analogy of standing in a
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: auditorium or a room in this case where there's 500
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: Pennix owners and the way their lineups are built and
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: A lot exit if Burden, Odunze, some of the other stuff, Pitts,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: those ones fail. But if you've got Raymond and he's
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: what's needed with Penix to make that game go back
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: and forth and then the other stuff starts to hit,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: you do enter a totally separate room where it is
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: very quiet and you're able to say like, damn, I
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: got room here now to be able to actually win
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: this thing. And you didn't play stupid. You just played
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: in a completely unique way in a spot everybody else
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: was already going to. So hopefully that makes some sense.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: It can help you out there once I finally got
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: to the point. But math, not so easy on an
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: early Saturday morning for me here. And that's why I
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: got my data guy, Alex, on the other side.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: I don't have too much else to add, but do
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: you want, I guess before we do pick a lane,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: because we have time, did you want to do any
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: other game stacks you wanted to talk about? We often
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: will bring those into play. I know people talked about it.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: We did hit on some of the others. I mean,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: I was showing it on the screen while you were
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: talking about some of the other stuff to people. But
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: a lot of the game stacks are the same price. Again,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: somewhat different positions, but just to... I don't even want
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: to rehash it. It was Caleb Odunze-Burden with Bijan was
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: like $ 25, 200. I know it doesn't include a tight end,
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: and the Kirk version does if you go to a Kirk, Tucker,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: James Cook, Bowers. But it's like the same money. Again,
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: it's $ 25, 000. So everything is kind of in that... 25k
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: range to build a 3-1 stack some of it involves
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: different positions which does matter but just noting it it's
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: like that is where the stacks are at is there
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: other game stacks on the slate you had a fun
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: one pre-show maybe we'll hit that but is there other
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: stuff you want to talk about like when it pertains
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: to the rams or i got more on the rams
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: coming so just want to bring that.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: Up um my leverage lane is going to touch on
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: on the one that i think you just hinted at
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: so i'll save that one One I will touch on first, though,
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: is I think we should be giving some consideration to
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen. And we do need the DJ Moore news,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: but I think this is an intriguing spot to do
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: a really contrarian single stack with a double bringback because
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: I think you could really get away with Josh Allen
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: plus one of his guys, whether it's DJ Moore, Dolan Kincaid, whoever,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: and then use both Bowers and Trey Tucker as the bringback.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: I think the reason why this can work is like,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: We just saw JSN have a pretty good game where
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: it was all just PPR value. And you could get
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: the same sort of thing for Bowers. Let's say Bowers
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: goes 13 for 140 and zero touchdowns. Trey Tucker goes
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: four catches, 90 yards and a touchdown. That in and
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: of itself, that might mean Kirk Cousins gets 15 DraftKings points.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: You don't need that. What if Josh Allen has 40
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: on the way back Cause he adds two rushing touchdowns,
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: throws one to the guy that you're using. So the
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: game could really go off that way. And you know,
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: any Trey Tucker production is speeding up the game. So
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: you could get like a really great game environment where
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: Cousins doesn't do a ton. Josh Allen scores a massive,
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: massive score and you get, kind of the full benefit
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: that way. And you only have to sacrifice potentially one
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: skill position guy with Josh Allen because we all know
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: that even when he goes for 40 or 45, his
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: skill position guys fail all the damn time. And so
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: it's really kind of a risk to stack him even
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: though Josh Allen is Josh Allen. And so that's an
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: intriguing way to go about things this week. And one
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: of the other things I like about that is even
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: though the stack itself is expensive, at least then like I'm,
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: I'm using the stack to include one of the guys
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: I want to pay up for in Brock Bowers. And
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: I don't have to find another way to do that.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: Whereas like every other stacks, like, let's say I'm trying to,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: you know, go to New York and I want neighbors,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: or maybe I want a lobby in there. It's like
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: every single thing. It's like, okay, well, how do I
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: get those guys and save myself room to go get
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: Brock Bowers as well. On top of this, this is
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: just like a way to almost like cut up the
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: middleman in a weird sort of way where I don't
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: need to find additional room for Bowers because I'm just
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: including him here in the stack.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I think there's also another intriguing factor to this
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: is somebody mentioned in the chat. And by the way,
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: definitely not going to this one. I'll bring it up,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: but this is Leverage Lane, not Narrative Street. That's where
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: the name comes from. We don't really care that it's
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: his birthday, but I do think it's really interesting actually
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: now just, again, we talked about this pre-show where Alex
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: will say, so I'll say something, he'll be like, oh,
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: that gave me an interesting thought. And then he just
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: said something gave me an interesting thought. So A hundred
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: dollars less than Josh Allen at a different position is
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: a pretty, I think a pretty popular running back this
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: week in James Cook, right? It's a guy that people
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: can get to quite easily. They love that matchup. You
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: can really flip this build where a lot of people
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: will have cousins, Bowers and James Cook and maybe Trey Tucker,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: but let's just eliminate him for a second. Let's see
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: it actually. By the way, I don't know if you,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: do you think DJ Moore will play? Like he still
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: hasn't practiced, but I guess if he does, I would
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: have interest just because he'd be fine, but I don't
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: think he's going to, I don't know. It's crazy. He
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: hasn't played yet. I thought he was fine last week
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: and then he hasn't practiced really all week.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: I don't think, but yeah, I would, I would guess
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: that he doesn't. Um, in which case I think Keon
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: Coleman's an interesting one. It's like the single stack. Uh,
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: he's been, he's been better this year and I think
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: this is a pretty decent spot for him. So you
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: go like Alan Coleman, Tucker and Bowers. And now it's
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: like you use Josh Allen and Brock Bowers in your stack.
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: And you still didn't spend a ton of money on
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: the stack because you really saved in the two wide
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: receiver spots.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: Like Keon Coleman is an Odunze money and he goes
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: with this stack and everything. But what I was going
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: to show, I want to see this. I would, I
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: would mention this. And one of these guys, I got
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: two running backs that are both like leverage lane candidates,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: but Genti is one of them. So I'll just say
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: it now. Cause in case you take my other one
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: and that's fine, but I'll note it. Like I think
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: Genti opposite side of James Cook, the matchup is actually
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: just as strong on the ground, by the way, I
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: believe it was just, um, Coram and Williams, both that
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: were doing fine against them just here. And he practiced
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: in full all week. I know people have been worried
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: about this guy and whatever, but at 6,500, uh, for
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: the amount of workload he's got when he has been healthy.
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: It's a short season, sample size sucks. You guys know
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: I love a good sample. It's not one, but I'm
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: just saying, if you were to flip this, this is $ 24, 000,
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: including a tight end, right? What we talked about a
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: little bit earlier. It's 25, I believe it's 25, just
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: one second. So I think any build could get you
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: another $ 1, 000. Let's go Allen, Coleman, Kincaid, Gentee. And let's
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: flip it and go to where I think a lot
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: more people will be at in this stack. And go
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: to James Cook. And down to $ 4, 700, Trey Tucker.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: And then Bowers, yeah.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: Up to Bowers. It is $ 1, 000 more, and you're playing
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins, Trey... Like, I love Bowers. You can hear
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: me harp it every single week. You heard Alex talk
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: about it every single week almost. It's like, this is...
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: This is interesting to me because Josh Allen, right? And
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: then you've got Gentee versus Cook. Could be closer than
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: you think. Josh Allen could smash Cousins. Gentee and Cook
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: could equal, just saying it from that perspective, but Josh
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: Allen could smash Cousins. Bowers and Kincaid, Bowers could smash him,
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: but then it really comes down to the wide receiver.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: So it kind of becomes pretty equal, but one gets
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: you a thousand bucks extra and should be way lower
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: owned in a spot that not many people are seemingly
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: going to get to, even though they know it's a
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: good spot.
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think I probably prefer the first one,
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: the more contrarian one. But I'd also say, like, I'd
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: really like to find a third option, which gets me
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: Allen and Bowers. And so even if that obviously costs more.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, you know, I think if you do that,
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: it's probably what you said, though. It's probably still I
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: think there's still something to be said for like the
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: Coleman in the zone of the Tate's, the Odun's, the Tucker's,
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: all of that. But Tucker and Coleman together. and then
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: you still get Bowers, and you run out something like that,
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: and you still have $ 5, 080 left. By the way, $ 25, 000, 24-6.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: So this is a prime example. You can get them both.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: And all you did is swap... Josh Allen and Keon
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: Coleman for James Cook and Kirk cousins. Well, if Josh
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: Allen eats James Cook's lunch and then you've got, um,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: or he's, well, he can crush cousins, but it would
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: also hurt. He could crush cousins and he also could
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: crush James Cook and Coleman could just be the guy
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: to slide in there where, yeah, you don't have it,
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: you know, the same conversion. Cause you're, you're not using
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: a running back in this one, but this is definitely
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: an example. I think you could get to here or
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: what in this lineup, I guess, uh, going back to
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: a different way. What's the difference in just deciding that
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: it's Kincaid instead of Isaiah likely. And by the way,
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: now you can easily afford who's popular. I get it,
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: but it's just like, all right, I just don't think
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: it's likely. I think it's all going to be neighbors
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: in this spot. And so I'm just going to hope
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: that he gets his 30 point game and it doesn't
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: need James Winston because a lot of it's just catches, right?
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: He had, I think he had 20 targets by the way. um,
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: last week to the, all the talk about the 24
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: Puka targets. Um, I think Malik had 20 himself. So
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: I think there's interesting ways to go about it. This
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: is 24, eight to go this way. And it's a
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: double tight end build that a lot of people, you
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: saw Bowers and likely the conditional ownership on Bowers and
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: likely was 11.1% when you had it up earlier.
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: Yep.
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: I don't think the Kincaid number was anywhere near that. Um,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: you know, Goddard was like next closest at 4% or something,
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: I think. So this would be an example as well. Um,
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: the one thing the chat did talk about, we talked
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: about Winston stacks. We've just, we again talked about a cousin,
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: but we did mention the Arizona stuff earlier. So we'll play,
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: we'll finish with that one. And I think, and then
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: we can talk about, um, you know, pick a lane.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: I want to just have some quick fun going back
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: and forth on that. And it brings more game theory
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: and that into it as well. And then we'll get
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: to our lanes at the end. But what was the
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: thought on the Brissette sag? Like I like tell you word,
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: it's not saying you love it or you're thinking everybody
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: should go with it, but it is interesting still from
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: the perspective of last week versus this week. So go ahead.
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, just like very similar team totals here,
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: very similar game total at the very least. And, and
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: we know that like so much of, you know, the,
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: the percent production over the last few years has come
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: in garbage time. Obviously, you know, a larger spread suggests
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: that there could be some real garbage time. I think
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: the key for me is like, what, what's the status
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: of Trent McDuffie for the Rams? If, if there's no
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: McDuffie again, like, I don't know that I'd end up
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: using Arizona, but I, could very confidently say that Brissette,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: Michael Wilson, that combination is going to be vastly under-owned
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: as a result. And so whether you want to turn
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: it into an expensive stack by also using McBride or
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: just going Brissette, Wilson, and Bourne or Brooks, I think
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: is up in the air. But the other thought I
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: had about this game that I do want to touch
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: on because it's not my leverage lane is I think
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: that Kyron, as much as I loved him two weeks ago,
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: I think this week he's probably like the most over-owned
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: play on the slate. was really surprised to see how
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: popular he is this week, but like all indications are,
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: he's going to be really, really popular. And it just
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: seems really clear that they want him on the field
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: in tense, tight situations in the game. And that's not
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: what this game environment is suggesting. That's not what we
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: are expecting to see based on the Vegas lines. It's
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: not what we should be expecting just based on who
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: these two teams are. Like if anything, this seems like
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: a really, really big quorum game. And so I'm, I'm
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: very interested in using quorum to leverage all of these
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: chalk Rams and hope that it's, it's a lot of
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: him in the second half of a blowout. And you know, the,
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: the Kyron's the Puccas, the Adams, like they're not even
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: on the field for a lot of the fourth quarter.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: I think that's a really intriguing way to kind of
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: hope that this game is a whole fails, just like
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: we used Gibbs to try and slow down last week's game.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: I think this one is like, it's the opposite. It's
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: that they do so much scoring, but they, they can't
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: all get there and maybe none of them get there
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: except for quorum. If he steals some early and then
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: also gets the mop up duty late.
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: So now I'm confused. Is that going to be your
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: lane or not? It's not my lane. No, but it's sweet. Okay.
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: So spoiler alert, what's coming, but I love quorum this
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: week and I'll get to that. It actually stems a
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: lot of my questions today that we talked about and
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: I'll tie it all together at the end. But I
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: think quorum is, is a phenomenal setup here. Again, the nice,
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: just to show it again, no one's really going to
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: this by the way, but people are playing hookah. How
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: can you play it around it? Like, everyone wanted Brissette, Bourne,
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: and Wilson last week. It's 65 instead of, 67, sorry,
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: instead of 65. It's 4K instead of 3,400, but he
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: proved with no Marv that he ended up getting, I think,
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: eight targets. Like, he was in the mix. It didn't
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: fully work out. Reset went up like five, $ 600, but
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: you love Puka on this slate. So whatever you think,
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: everyone that loves Puka, and by the way, it's a
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: lot of people, They're telling me he should be $ 9, 000.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: And if he's going to get like he did last
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: week or even half that, probably he might as well be, well,
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: guess where that $ 800 does makes all those guys the
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: exact same price they were last week. And you loved it. Oh,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: but it's not the Detroit D that's not all. Everybody
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: was saying, most people were just looking at it from
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: the game total and the perspective of we can get
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: a back and forth and reset can do this and
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: all this other stuff. but nobody wants it this week.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: So it's just a prime example. You still have a
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: ton of money to spend, but look at this. I
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: know it's different positions again, but right at that 25
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: K range, almost any stack this week is working out
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: to around that range, which means we kind of know
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: what the tight end and running backs and situational stuff
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: is going to be that information you can use to
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: your advantage. Yeah.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: And the last thing here is like, obviously the Rams
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: defense is not the Detroit defense. Obviously this is not
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 2: as good of a spot for Arizona, but we're talking
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: about a quarterback who was like almost 30% last week.
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: who's projecting it like one and a half percent this week.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's obviously not the same defense, but is
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: it 30% versus one and a half percent worse? And there,
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: I think that the answers were pretty clearly no.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: Also, I think now this is just from a perspective
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: of just looking at it quickly. I'm pretty sure if
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: we load that up, maybe it was the 44, 44. Yeah,
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: let's use links. He got taken away at the end
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: to Uticao, who then went on to say, oh, you know,
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: it's not enough to win one Millie Maker. Let me
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: win the Showdown Millie Maker on Monday as well. But
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: the lineup that he had that ended up getting clipped
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: by Uticao was a Jacoby, Everyone told me he had
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: a bad game, 26.3 DraftKings points. You know what I mean?
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: Michael Wilson did have a bad game, so that hurt him.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: But it's like a Jacoby lineup still found a way
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: to get its way to the top with a pretty
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: bad outcome from him for the most part of that
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: game until it worked out in the end. But the
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: point being, what if they actually have a good game
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: this time? And then that does lead to how good
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: Puka does stay even more involved in full four quarters
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: and all that. That's where I would be looking to
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: get after this game. in a different way if you
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: want to do it that way. So I think there's
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: at least something to be said. And I'm going to
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: have a double leverage lane today because I see it
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: from this game that I want to talk about. But
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: if you weren't on it in this game, I think
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: there's the other one that I like I said earlier
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: already is Gentee. I'm going to talk about both of
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: them in more detail in a second. For pick a lane,
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: I just want to get your opinion on some of
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: these spots. So like we'll start with an easy one because.
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: I said earlier, like Worthy at wide receiver at 4,600
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: and massive ownership or Kelsey at tight end for a
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: little bit more money, but also like no ownership at all.
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: Kind of the way the position shakes out. People are
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: going high or low. He sits right in the middle.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: What would be your side if you had to pick one? Again,
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: it doesn't mean you're actually playing. It's just, it's more like,
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: I think this sparks a lot of thought process and
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: conversation of like the why, the onesie position. If you're
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: not on this guy, then go this guy. What's your
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: thoughts on that one? You know, Worthy or Kelsey?
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: I think that I liked the way I kind of
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: talked through the, the worthy stuff earlier, which is like,
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: I don't think people are playing worthy because they think
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: that he's a great play at 4,600. I think they're
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: playing worthy because he's the best option that they have
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: in order to fit some other guys. And so I
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: want to fade him. So I'm going to say Kelsey,
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: because I just think that one of the paths to
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: success on this slate is you don't use worthy, worthy
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: fails in a big way, which I think is very
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: much within the range of outcomes. And as a result,
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: You can get away with not having some of the
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: stud combinations, even if those stud combinations go off because
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: those stud combinations are being brought down by Worthy. So
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: it just gives you more paths to success on this slate,
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: I think, if you fade Worthy and he fails.
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: Also, I'm going to add one more option. You can
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: pick a lane or you could say roadster. And it
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: just means we fly over top of it like flying
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: cars now that we've seen. You can just fly over
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: the question completely and say, I don't want any of
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: those no matter what. And I think that's kind of
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: the feeling because in that one for me, you know,
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: were these a tough one off it reminds, it's not
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: just because the Harris situation is just, that's another one
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: to use to show how it could happen of like
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: what can happen when sometimes these guys are elevated where
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: they could have a huge game. But if he was,
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: I'd like to be thinking about what the rest of
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: my lineup looks like and building around it. But I,
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: it's not that I love Kelsey because we already like
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: Bowers and McBride and then all the other guys that
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: we talked about and some that fit our stacks and
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: all this stuff. We're probably not going, you know, I'm
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: not going to my home. So that tells you everything
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: you need to know there. Let's do another one. You're
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: the Eagles guy. Let's do Chuba Hubbard or Damian Pierce. Now,
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: no Shipley went to the IR, I believe, and now
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: no Barkley, right? So it looks like Damian Pierce has
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: an opportunity. There's been some coach speak around him that
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: people like, but Damian Pierce and Price Matters and everything
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: or Chuba Hubbard.
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: This one's so easy for me. It's Chuba. I think
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 2: Damian Pierce stinks. I think the Eagles offense is going
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: to stink and Chuba has the highest GPP score. of
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: anybody on this slate for me. So Chuba easy.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: What about, uh, how do you feel? This is not
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: part of pick, pick, pick a lane now, but I'm curious,
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: how do you feel about the very popular Carolina defense then?
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: That's a tougher one. I think that one depends a
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: lot on, on what you do with the rest of
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: the game, because what we've seen from Philly and I,
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: what we're going to see is like, if this game
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: is tight, it's going to be a hyper conservative offense.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: And so while I don't expect a whole lot of
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: production from the Eagles offense, I also don't expect a
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: ton of defensive production from the Panthers. So I think
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: the way to use the Panthers defense is to use
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: one or multiple Panthers, whether it's Chuba, Tet, Coker, whomever.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: And you say the Panthers score early and force the
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: Eagles to play more aggressively than they want. And that's
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: when you get the sacks and the mistakes from McKee.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: That's what I like. you know, me and Mayo got
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: into a little bit a couple of weeks ago about
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: the running back DST thing. And I was like, it's situational,
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: but I'm saying the reason, like it's been proven a
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: myth for years now. I think the data, you've got it.
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: Tons of people have it. Like you don't need to
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: do that at all. You need the best. You need
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: the people that are gonna score the most points. And
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: funny enough, it's oftentimes a cheap deal like it is
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: this week that pairs with the running back. But if
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: you are telling that story in that build and Chuba
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: already pops off the page, it is a way to
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: make it all make sense and make it work. And
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: you're hoping it's that, but to your point, it could
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: be Tet. It could be Coker. What you're saying is
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: it could be Bryce Young and the D that you need.
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: And the point is, it's like Bryce Young scores the touchdowns,
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: takes from Chuba, but then puts the D in a
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: position where you do get the back and forth. And
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: McKee has been chucking it in any games that he's played.
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: It's a small sample though. So it's like, I think
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: they said there are 40 attempts or something like that.
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: I won't give it here. Like, I guess, you know,
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: the other one I was going to give you was
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: from before, but I'm already on that one. I'll talk
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: about Gentry more in a second. There was one more.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: Do you have any others that you'd have for comparison?
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: I'm just trying to find my other one. Oh, this
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: was it. Do you want Cam, Scataboo, or Isaiah Likely?
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: Man, this is a really tough one. I was actually
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: looking earlier. There's some Scataboo stuff that I like.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: Okay. So that's interesting because, again, just from my perspective
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: on this, the game theory idea of it is if
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: a lot of people– are going likely. Sometimes it's a
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: good idea. Maybe you want, um, a defense against that team,
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: not because it has anything to do with likely, but
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: those landings would likely aren't likely to have that other defense.
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: Maybe that slows them down. They don't make it happen,
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: but having a guy like scat in thousand bucks more,
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: we showed you earlier how you can find a thousand
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: bucks in some of these stacks and popular ones and combos.
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: That could be a guy that makes sense to fit
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: in there. So, um, um, scat and likely we've only
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: got about five minutes. Probably try and keep it to that.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: Do you want to give any others that you wanted
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: to compare? I can't think of any, but what I
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: wanted to do with this segment was not just, it's
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: not picks and plays. It's game theory and perspective and
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: roster construction and all of that, but hopefully in the future.
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: And if we get to it sooner, uh, If you
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: guys like it, let us know in the comments. If
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: you think it sucks, tell us that too. We don't care,
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: but we'll fix it. We want it to be the
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: best for you guys, but we're hoping to get, you know,
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: chat interaction and you guys could bring your comparisons to
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: say like, I'm very curious what your game theory would
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: be on this guy versus this guy, or what does
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: the data say on this guy versus this guy? And
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: then you'll have conversation how you can use it around that.
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: Was there any others that you could think of, you know,
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: from stack perspective, running backs, anything else you want to compare?
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: Not really. I think some of the running back chalk
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: is interesting to kind of just think through. Um, so like, or,
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: or second anyway.
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: Or even some of like, Oh, which is the better
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: pivot between, you know, Derek Henry or Jonathan Taylor, Jonathan
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 2: Taylor and Kenneth Walker. Uh, you know, James Cook is
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: also in that, in that group. I think all four
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: of those guys are pretty similar plays where like, if
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: you use them, you're hoping for the big play, you're
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: hoping for touchdowns, obviously a big performance on the ground.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: They're all capable. Are you basing that decision on the matchup?
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: Is it about the, the overall It's about the overall
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: lineup as a whole. So lots of different kind of
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: thoughts there, but I think my preference is probably Jonathan Taylor.
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: And the reason is related to my leverage lane.
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I'll let you go first thing is now that
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: you don't have mine and you already know what my
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: two are, I'm going to talk about both of them
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: and why in a second, but let's hear yours first.
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: Go ahead.
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: So my leverage lane is stemming from the thought of,
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: you know, that I brought up earlier, which is I
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: kind of want to build my stack this week through
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: alpha wide receivers where like, I I'm not really super
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: impressed by any game environments that I can go to
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: outside of the Chicago Atlanta game, which I don't really
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: want to play at this point because of how, how
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: popular it is, or maybe I will, but it's, you know,
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: trying to find a really contrarian way. And so with
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: that said, like, okay, if, if I'm not elevating the
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: stack through a game environment, how can I find the
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: stack that really elevates itself? Well, the biggest answer I
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: think is the alpha wide receivers get it done with
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: big plays. And so, you know, last week, the, the
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: two alpha wide receivers that I went through were Denzel
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: Boston and Gary Wilson, not exactly the two that you
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 2: really think about, but when we're talking alpha wide receivers,
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: we're saying, what is their role? How much of the
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: offense's production comes through that player? And do they have
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: big playability? And those guys both check that box this week.
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: One of the most intriguing ones I think is a
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: cam ward stack. As crazy as that sounds, but Carnell
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: Tate very much fits the mold. He has like a,
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 2: I think a 0.63 weighted opportunity rating this year. Maybe
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: it might even be actually, I think it's 0.73. So
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: one of the really, really strong roles. We've only seen
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: Ward and Tate connect throughout the game once this year,
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: but even last week where it was a bad, bad
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: week for Tate, the role was spectacular. A lot of
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: downfield targets. He himself is doing a really good job
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: of getting open. Cam Ward just has to do a
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: better job of hitting him. But it seems to me
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: like it's one of those cases where the matchup is
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: great this week. It's absolutely a defense where he can
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: get that done. And the second thing is I think
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: a lot of this with Cam Ward is just confidence.
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: And so once he hits a couple times, it becomes
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: infinitely easier to hit a third time and a fourth
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: time and a fifth time rather than trying to get
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: those first connections when they're just struggling throughout the game.
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: And so if Carnell Tate hits, this to me is
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: the big point. Carnell Tate is getting some ownership. If
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: he hits in a big way, it's really, really hard
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: for Cam Ward to not also hit at $ 4, 800. And
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: if you get that combination, now you can spend so
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: much money elsewhere. And so I think one of the
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: more intriguing contrarian spend ups of the week is Jonathan Taylor. Oh,
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: guess what? They fit in the same game and they
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: correlate really well because when Taylor has those ceiling performances,
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: he's taking it to the house from 60 yards out
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: and now he's putting the ball right back in Cam
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 2: Ward's hands. And so I think this just sets up
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: really well in the sense that like, I don't think
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: the median outcome for this game is good by any means,
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: but when two specific things happen, when Jonathan Taylor has
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: explosive plays and when Cardinal Tate actually catches, or I
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: should say when Ken Ward actually puts the ball on Tate,
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: when he gets open down the field, it's like, it's
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: two things. And when those two things happen, this game
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: environment becomes infinitely better than what the median outcome is.
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 2: And so I really liked this path to saving money
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: and getting a lot of upside and contrarian upside at that.
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and you get so much money left over, right?
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: If you, I'll throw it up on the screen for
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: a second, but if you pop like even those three together,
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: you still have almost 5,400. We haven't put a D
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: or a tight end or anything in there. So you
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: can do a lot of different angles with that approach. Perfect.
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: So you've got yours. I'll hit both mine quick. I
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: will say, you know, The big one is Corum, which
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: I'll get to in a second. But Jenty, I'll start
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: with quickly. The reason I mentioned Jenty is just like
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: I said, I do see James Cook, a lot of
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: conversation around him when people can't get to Josh Allen.
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: I know there's Tucker steam a little bit and people
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: want to play the Kirk Cousins stack and they're putting
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: Cook into that. So to me, it's just flipping that
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: in multiple ways, right? Even if you didn't fully get
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: to the Josh Allen, I think there's an option to
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: go with Jenty. If he was $ 6, 500 here today, and
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: it was any other situation besides coming off that ankle
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: and all that, I think people would have a lot
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: more interest. This one would remind me more of Um, Blickle's, uh,
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 1: Williams call a couple of weeks ago where it's like, yeah,
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: you are just taking a shot a little bit. It's
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: not as aggressive as the core one in a minute,
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: but he still has a good projection. He still shows
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: up a lot at $ 6, 500. He's right there with Williams
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: who he knows picking up steam Swift, who still has
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: no Manung guy. If Stevenson picks up any steam, you know,
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 1: and Braylon Allen is right below him. So he squeezed there.
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: a guy that's up top. And in lineups that I
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: can't get to my boy, Brock Bowers, it makes perfect
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: sense for that as well. So there's a lot of
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: different angles of attack with Gentee on this slate. And
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: I don't necessarily recommend playing both these guys together, but
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: I'll give my second one. For example, if it's a,
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: you know, let's say it's a Stafford stack with Higby
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: and you're staying with one tight end and you're not
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: going to get to Williams, but you also don't have
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: Brock Bowers, maybe that's a good spot to throw Gentee
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: in as a full example. But The quorum one. And
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: I told you before, I never really do much sports betting,
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: but I laddered this guy up. I got any time touchdown.
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: I got two touchdowns. I really think the quorum spot
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: is so good and even got better yesterday. And the
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: reason I say that is because I don't have high
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 1: faith in Tyler Algier. being a starting guy at $ 4, 800
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: in a 12 and a half point spread and all
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: this other factors to go with it. I think if
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: the game stays close, we still seen Coram be in
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: the mix. Look at the game that we just had.
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: He was in there a ton, could have broke off
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: that one last one, man. He's so shifty with the
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: ball in hand, you know, in stride. And he almost
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: got loose on that one for the full way. could
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: have been an even bigger day, still had a ton
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: of success. Well, I think that he gets involved either way,
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: but if it is a blowout, we could see him
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: be involved even more. And at $ 4, 800, there's nobody else
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: anyone is really going to down there except maybe Algier.
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 1: These are initial projections, et cetera, et cetera. But my
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: point being, he's not even going to be that far off.
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: And when you talk, and Alex got me excited about
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: this one, that's why I was like, oh, wait, I'm confused.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: But when he said the Kyron Williams thing of being potentially...
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: in his outlook, that's even more intriguing because it's like, okay,
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: if you can't, first of all, if you can't get
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: to Kyron Williams or don't want to, then I think
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: Corum makes sense. But if a lot of people are
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: going to be on Algier too, you're getting like a
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: double whammy in the same game. But then second of all,
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: is I actually think you could still play Corum and Puka.
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 1: together more than needing a stack or needing anything like
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: it could just be puka is the guy you need
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: and then quorum is the follow-up that you've gotten it
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: would be similar i'll say what was the game um
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: the detroit game was it like laporta still did pretty
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: good and obviously it was gibbs is all you needed
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: it's again not quite the same and different price points
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: and positions but the idea of quorum can still be
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 1: enough and make the rest of your lineup work and
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: you've got puka and quorum and not necessarily anything else
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: it's just playing it that way you could play puka
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 1: and quorum and the rams d you could play quorum
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: and the rams d and pay up at d so
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: quorum is the the key standing point to all of
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: that i think he's pretty interesting it goes totally alex
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: i'll let you rebuttal this but totally was what we
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: talked about off the top when i said what if
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: you've got something where you kind of really like it
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: the projections aren't going to be all the way there
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: but i can make a lot of sense with it
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: and have conviction behind it well i I can kind
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: of do whatever I want with the rest of my lineup. Right.
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: As my thinking with this one, any, any thoughts on
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: those leverage lane pieces there?
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, I love the quorum call, as I
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 2: said earlier. And the other thing, like if, if he
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: kind of qualifies in that regard of like someone who
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: doesn't project it well, like in that case, it doesn't
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: matter at all that he doesn't project well, because the
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: reason we love him isn't just that, like, we think
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 2: he's going to do well. The reason we love him
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: is because when he does well, just so much for
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: our lineups, both in terms of helping fit other guys,
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 2: but also like taking down the chalk that we're not playing.
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: And so I really like that. And then, um, I
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: wanted to mention like, uh, there's a, there's a comment
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: in the chat that says the, the Titans offense isn't concentrated.
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: It hasn't been concentrated from a production standpoint, but from
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: an opportunity standpoint, Cardinal Tate is fifth in the entire
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 2: NFL and weighted opportunity rating. The guys ahead of him
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 2: are JSN, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Chris Olave.
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: That's it.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: In terms of percent of a team's air yard's, carnell
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 2: tate leads he is number one in the percentage of
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 2: his own team's air yards when they have success it
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 2: is going to be carnell tate so the reason the
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: the production hasn't been super concentrated because these two just
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: haven't hit his you know of those guys he's turning
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 2: air yards and opportunity into actual production at a much
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: lower rate but i don't think that's tate's fault i
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 2: think tate is doing a really good job of getting
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: open it's just about cam ward hitting him and Certainly
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 2: part of that is just getting into an easier matchup.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: And so, uh, again, like that, I'm not saying that
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: the median outcome for this game is really good for
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 2: Tata for the cam ward stack, but I really liked
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: the fact that when this hits, it's hitting in a
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: really predictable way and it's hitting in a way that
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 2: is elevating the entire game environment and a really, really
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 2: cheap contrarian quarterback.
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: And elevating the rest of your roster. Again, this always
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 1: goes back. It's in the reverse. And I love the
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: first profit. Always here supporting. We appreciate you, man. But
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: just saying like, when you look at it that way,
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: it's not just what that does. It's what else does
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 1: it do for the rest of your lineup? You can
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 1: pretty much go anywhere you want. You can get all
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 1: the pieces that you want in and still like think
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 1: about it and be thoughtful of your roster construction. But
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: it's pretty much comes down to like if that part
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: hits and it's one that you were very confident enough
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: to put conviction behind and make it your leverage lane
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 1: that if it hits, hopefully you get the rest of
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: the stuff right. But the rest of the stuff is
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: going to be pretty damn good. It's like you're going
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 1: to have a lot of good options in there if
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: you've got that stack to start with, even with an
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: 8K Jonathan Taylor. So I think it's a really good
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: spot for this week. Anything else? Let the people know
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: where they can find you. Anything else you want to
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: go with? Final thoughts? Then we'll get out of here. Oh,
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: all good.
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 2: Blickanalytics.com. That's where it's all at. You can use promo
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: code TAMU. You can use promo code LEVERAGE, whatever you want.
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: And yeah, just get in there because we're having a
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 2: lot of fun this year.
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, check it out, guys. Make sure to support Alex.
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: Support us over at ShipItNation.com. If you want to find
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 1: out more, support yourself, really, because if you want to
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: get in, any All Access member or NFL-only member at
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: ShipIt Nation has a chance to play for the $ 50, 000
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: cash and prizes. It is a community-only contest. You can
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 1: check it all out at shipitgames.com and then join the games.
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 1: But it's basically, if you just have a membership, all
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: access or NFL only, you'll be in the Discord. You'll
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 1: have all of the content, projections, ownership, showdown, the stones,
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: the stone 2.0, slate station, value report, all that and more.
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: You guys can check it out at shipitnation.com. If you
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: have any other questions, hit me up on X at
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: ToeTag and Tambo. That's going to do it for this week, guys.
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: For Blickle, for myself, ToeTag and Tambo, good luck in
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 1: your contests. Let's ship it!