Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | May 17, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | May 17, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:44
  Speaker 1: What's going on? Everybody? Happy two year anniversary at Chippin Nation.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Big day over here. Hey, it's been a hell of
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: a ride. Love what we've got going, very excited for
• 0:54
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• 0:58
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• 1:03
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• 1:06
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• 1:09
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• 1:21
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• 1:23
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• 1:27
  Speaker 1: all the content. Absolutely cannot beat that, Big Marley bring in.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: How we doing on this fine Thursday afternoon?
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Not too bad, can't complain. Um Gott fights again this
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: weekend one hundred kup top. Hopefully one of us will
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: ship it.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, hopefully man ballall ballah Balall. I not only did
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: I bet bal all big, I also had the winner
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: if Balall won in the flag sh Yeah, that was
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: a big boy swing. I did hedge not pre fight
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: because I was so comfortable confident Ballall but minus one
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: forty Jack, I believe it was round four it I
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: laid a pretty big bet on there. I mean, man,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: but I'll just he didn't try to wrestle. When he did,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: he really didn't have much success. Huge kudos to Jack
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Dell in that fight. Looked really good, kept it at distance,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: did what he had to do. Would have made a
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: lot more money if the other way went was able
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: to get a little hetch down. How was your week
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: last week?
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: I don't even remember. I think I lost because of Balal.
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: I fell asleep Mike probably like the first fight into
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: the pay per view, so I didn't even see Blaw's fight,
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: but I had him parlayed with uh with Jasmine, so
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: that would have been nice if he won because I
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: hit a chef chenko bet. I think I had another
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: bet that I won as well, but I lost bets
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: overall because of Balao. I'm pretty sure it was a
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: losing night for me. Brown. I really don't remember it all.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that makes sense, Geekai for Jason Chinchak, what's going
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: on everybody? Tough week, I agreed, tough week. Twelve fights,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: so that's the magic number. Twelve's okay, We're back to
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: the Apex, a fight night card. We've definitely been blessed
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: these past couple weeks with pay per view two five rounders,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: thirteen fights, even fourteen fights, so only twelve's not great.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: A couple big favorites on this card minus five hundred,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: minus five point fifty, minus eight twenty. Yeah, I mean
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: the main event favorite by far, the biggest favorite on
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: the card, minus eight twenty, highest priced ninety seven hundred.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: That adds a little wrinkle into it. Tough card, I agree.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: I think leaving salary is pretty difficult. Like thousand plus
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: getting different in spots I think is pretty tough. I agree,
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: it's a pretty tough week. This is one of the
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: few cards I'll miss. I'll be out on the boat
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: on the lake, very excited for that. We'll never turn
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: that down, So I'll pass up this card for the
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: lake any day. Yeah. Broad slide review anything Big Marley
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: before you go fight by fight.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, if you got to miss a card,
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: this is a good one to miss. I think if
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: it wasn't for one hundred kup top, I really wouldn't
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: have too much interest in this card either. But I'll
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: give it a shot at the start. If I'm live
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: all the way through, I'll watch all the way through.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: But if I'm dead early, I'll stop watching early and
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: I'll figure out other plans. But yeah, I think it's
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: tough slate. I think a lot of ownership will flock
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: to the main and the co main event, also the
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: Rusaboye of Stolswitz fight, and then after that, I mean,
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: I think we were pretty much are gonna be fade.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: Everyone's fading TSHA per usual, and then the ownership kind
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: of gets mixed in around after those fights. So I
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: gotta find a couple of ways to get different. I
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: was like so chalky on my first bill that I
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: was like, oh shit, maybe I need to use t
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: SHA in this one, just just to be different. But
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: I ended up changing the whole thing up and I'll
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: probably delete it out and maybe just do twenty on
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: the Sabersim something like that. I don't think it'll be
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: a one fifty week for me.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. I won't be one fifty either.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's a great card at the end
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: of the day for DFS, but it could be worse.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Fingers crossed. All twenty four fighters make weight. If we
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: lose one fight, I wouldn't play any in tournaments. I
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: think it'd be really, really bad. So let's hope we
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: get all twelve fights. Let's get into it bottom of
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: the top. Like always, Big Marley, you said you're gonna
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: be You're gonna be watching live the whole time until
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: you're not. You're gonna be watching the fights live until
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: you're not live. In DFS. I think you're probably gonna
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: be fine after this first fight, but you're gonna have
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: to watch it. Tisha Pennington Tisha Torre is whatever you
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: want to call her, minus three fifty five taking on
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: the one at Pinero plus two to eighty. This fight's
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: the most likely to go the distance on the card
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: at minus four hundred Torres plus four to fifty inside
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: the distance Pinero plus six hundred. Just an easy dog
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: or pass if I have to play anyone like t
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Shed her price tag Compenians everyone else in the upper tier.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: This girl never wins by finish like I look through
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: her her like decision wins and like what she scores
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: it is terrible. I'm not gonna bore you, but plenty
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: plenty of low scores, only score at one hundred plus
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: once since her debut in twenty fourteen. Zero Pennington think
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: it's pretty easy, Pinero. Dogs are tough on this card.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: I don't like many of the cheap stuff, so woman's
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: fight expected to go the distance. Judges can be off,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: maybe a takedown, two takedown, some control time steals around
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: little Pinero. Still don't love it. No, Pennington, what are
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: you doing?
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just gonna try and fully fade this fight,
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: especially with twenty lineups or less. I'm really not trying
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: to pay ninety three hundred dollars for Tisha, but I
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: do think she's just the better fighter everywhere. Panero is
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: the like, stronger, more powerful fighter. She could probably hit
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: a little bit harder, but she's not gonna knock Tisha out.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: She could probably also use her strength to get a
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: takedown or two, but I just don't think she's gonna
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: do enough with those Tsha probably pops back to her
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: feet and then dances around the cage enough for Panero
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: to not be able to score well even if she
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: does win, so I'm just gonna fade the fight. I'll
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: look for other dogs who I think have a better
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: chance of winning, and then I'll look for other favorites
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: who have a higher ceiling.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: That makes sense. I don't even like Luana Pinero that much,
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: but it is worth noting. So line open minus three hundred,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Pennington got all the way down to like minus five hundred,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: and that was on Monday, and now it's minus three
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: fifty five, So abuck fifty. Pinero's got back in money.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: That was pretty interesting to me. Again on a card
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: I don't like many dogs, but I don't like Pinero much.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: T sha by decision either fighter on the optimos, how
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: I see it, keep it rolling. Another fight that it's
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: hard to love too much. It is in the mid
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: tier hung Sung Park minus one seventy five taken on
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Carlos Hernandez plus one fifty plus one sixty for this
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: fight to finish, Park plus two hundred inside the distance
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Hernandus plus seven hundred, a fight where I just prefer
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: the way more dangerous fighter is Park like Hernandez is
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: just so MA and like every single area of MMA,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: it feels like Cardio's fine, he'll fight for your money.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Chin's fine. Striking, I guess it's fine. Wrestling's fine, but
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: nothing excites me about this guy. No like pillows for
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: punches when he walks forward. So Park, he's gonna eat him,
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: eat two, eat three, but he'll fire back. And when
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: he lands eight of his nine wins by finish four
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Ko's four subs it just if he wins. If someone's
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: gonna score in ninety five, I think it's Park. Hernandez
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: is eight hundred less on the car. We don't have
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: many love many dogs. I'll play some Hernandez maybe seventies enough,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: but yeah, Park has that, like alm Con the barrio,
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: that mid tier upside we saw last week. I think
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Park has that. And the line reflects that he opened
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: plus two twenty five inside the distance, now plus two hundred.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: This fight Monday was plus one eighty five to finish.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Now it's plus one sixty. Hernandez is plus seven hundred
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: inside the distance, so almost all the finishing equity on
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: the Park side. I prefer Park. Seventy might be enough
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: so that for that reason, I'll play Hernandez. But yeah,
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: it's Park for me. What about you?
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I pretty much agree with all that. I'll use
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: both sides of this fight. I think Park is our
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: higher ceiling side because he's more dangerous, and then Hernandez
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: is just one of the more live dogs on the card.
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: I think he's just playing for ten X. I think
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: if he wins, he probably scores seventy lesson to next.
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: But Park is kind of similar to Hernandez to me,
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: He's just not very good either. In my opinion, He's
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: just a lot more dangerous when he does I guess
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: it go for it, but I would say this is
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: closer to a two star for me. I'm not really
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: looking to click on either one of these guys, but
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: at the same time, I'm fine clicking on either one
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: of them even if it were a single entry. So
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: I left it at three star. I would guess if
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: I had to put a number on it right now,
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: i'd probably be around fifteen percent on both guys, though,
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: fifteen to twenty.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Let's compare quick. I know I'm jumping ahead a little bit,
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: but Lana Santos, Liz Boa, you have that as a
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: two star. So I'm guessing this this fight.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say this fight, but it's close because
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: I mean, well, we'll get to that fight, but I
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: think Boa has a higher seat or not Lisboa. I
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: think Santos has a higher ceiling, but I'm picking Lisbo
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: to win.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: So yeah, i won't jump too far ahead. But pretty
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: much what I'm comparing is the mid tier this week
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: is awful. So look at the mid tier fights three
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: star here and eight mid tier considered eighty five hundred
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: seventy seven hundred. We have it. Another mid tier fight
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: two star, another mid tier fight two star, another mid
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: tier fight two star. So technically, just looking at this,
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: the highest mid tier fight we have three star could
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: be a two star as well, So that's at least
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: what makes this card good is outside of the couple
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: that we know people like, are the couple fights that
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: are good to target, It's all just a jumbled mess
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: outside of that, and ownerships can be eating into each other.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: You can fait the main events, So while it is
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: only twelve fights and a lot of big favorites, at
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: least I think ownership will be pretty spread out and
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: you can get on different combinations. So yeah, with the
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: one hundred k on top up top, it could be worse. Again.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Fingers crossed all twelve fights all twenty four fighters make weight,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: All right, let's move to the next fight on the card.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Huge money. So again, I put these odds Monday, and
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: then I change them tomorrow when we track line movement.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: But minus five hundred Gomes was on Monday. He's minus
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: seven hundred taken on the least read plus five hundred
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: plus one thirty for this fight to finish, Gomes plus
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: one forty inside the distance read plus nine point fifty.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: I'm not playing any read, you tell me if you are.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: But for the Goame side, how much of her are
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: you gonna get? Again? Morales is right there, Blatto's right there,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Rosy Boyev's right there. I do think they all get
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: more ownership though, so curious your take on the Gomes situation.
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not gonna play read either, but I will
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: get some Gomes. I don't like clicking on her. I'd
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: much rather find two hundred dollars to get up to
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: Morales or there's a few people I'd rather pay down
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: for instead. But I do think she'll be lower owner
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: than them, So for ownership purposes, I am okay going
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: to her, And I also think that her easiest path
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: to victory would be to mix in her wrestling game
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: and kind of do damage on the ground, and if
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: she's able to do that, that's where most of the
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: points will come from. I think she has a much
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: higher ceiling if that's the case, if it's going to
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: be a striking match, and then Read is live here,
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: I just still think Gomes is better. She should have
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: recovered anywhere this fight goes. So yeah, like Gomes and Read,
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: it'll be a pass for me.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Lock step right there, we're pretty lockstep to start this card.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Let's see in the next fight, another mid tier fight again,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: we briefly talked about it, Juana Santo's Antonaro Liz Boa.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: We're looking at minus one sixty for Santos, plus one
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: forty is lis Boa, plus three eighty five on boasts
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: girls inside the distance to finish. So this fight open
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: plus one ninety four on Monday was pust one ninety
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: five to finish, still plus one ninety to finish. It
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: opened that way. It's kind of tough, like you're parlay
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: and getting a close pick them fight to then score
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: enough to be optimal. You do see Lisboa two point
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: oh five takedown Santos one point six to two. We
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: haven't seen Lisboa in a little while. She had like
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: she hurt her knee in camp before her last fight,
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: still fought, got the decision. Then I have surgery like
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: December twenty twenty three, and look at her age. I mean,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Santo's already the younger fighter, twenty five years old. Santos
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: lis Boa coming off away off at thirty four, So
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: I get why the money's coming in on Santos. For me, though,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: just close fight, probably going to decision. I prefer the
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: six hundred savings. I guess I could say the same
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: thing about Hernandez Park. I just think Park wins. I'm
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: more confident in that, so I lean dog with the savings.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: But yeah, it sounds like you like both sides of
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: this fight relative to other fights in the mid tier.
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm okay with this fight. Lisbo is my preferred
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: play because I am picking her to win. The numbers
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: on this fight, I don't know that they're misleading, but
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: the way I see it would be Santos has the
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: edge on the ground and liz Boa has the striking edge.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: But you wouldn't think that just looking at the numbers. Santos,
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: I would say, has the higher ceiling because of her
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: ground edge. If she is gonna win this fight, it
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: could be dominantly if she's able to get takedowns early
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: and maybe get multiple takedowns or submission through those takedowns.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: But Liz Bo I think she could land a couple
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: takedowns if she wants, but if she can use her
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: wrestling to stay on the feet. I like her striking
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: a lot more than I like santos is striking, and
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: I think she's gonna hit a lot harder than Santos.
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: For DFS, we probably do need her to mix in
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: a couple of takedowns. I think if she wins a
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: striking match here, she's scoring sixty something points and it's
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: not gonna be It's not gonna be on the optimum lineup.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: So that's why I have this as a two star.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna be targeting this fight, but I'm also
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: not gonna x either one of them out. I'll play
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: both of them, but I'll have more exposure to Liz
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: Boa and my favorite Santos lineup. I probably just want
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: Liz Boa in that as well and just leave six
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: hundred or whatever it is on the table.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: One hundred percent like that last point, I'd very easy,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: very fine, leaving six hundred taking a plus one forty
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: dog similar upside as a way to cut eighteen dupes
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: down the three dupes or something like that. So good,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: shout there, all right, keep moving again, appreciate everyone hanging
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: out like button subscribe, button helps us out a ton.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: Big favorite is this next one, Yadier Devall taking on
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Conner Matthews. Yadier now minus five point fifty open, minus
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: four to fifty Matthews plus four hundred on the way
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: back minus won thirty five for this fight to finish
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: the vall minus one oh five inside the distance Matthews
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: plus seven hundred, So this fight open plus one hundred
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: to finish now minus one thirty five the vall open
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: plus one forty to finish now minus one oh five.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Let's see his round one prop open plus four hundred
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: now plus three hundred. I mean this Connor Matthews just
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: a punching bag at the end of the day, like
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: this dude is not very good. So Devall making his
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: UFC debut Contender series looks solid. I don't know if
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: this dude's like a top ten guy in the UFC,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: but I do think Connor. Matthews probably bottom ten in
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: the UFC, so for that, by default, Devall I'm picking.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: I'm playing. I'm fine leaving five hundred plus morales down
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: to him. Hope he gets a first round knockoup. That's
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: the way I can get different. I'm not playing Matthews
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: with twenty teams or less. What are you doing in
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: this fight?
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Devall is definitely my preferred play in this one. Matthews.
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, he ran through a lot of people on
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: the regional scene and he looked decent doing it, but
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: then he gets to the UFC and he just doesn't
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: look good at all. So I'm kind of just over him.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: I don't really think that that ceiling that we saw
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: on the regional scene is there. I mean, I'd be
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: pissed if he goes out there and gets a a
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: fifty second submission or something and I don't have any
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: of them because that is kind of his style. But
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: if he doesn't get that, I just think Delvall's I
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: think he's better everywhere. I think he's a better wrestler.
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: I think he's a better grappler. I think he's the
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: more likely back control guy over the course of a
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: round or two. I think he's the guy pushing forward
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: on the feed. He's the higher paced striker, and I
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: think he's the more dangerous striker too. So yeah, I'll
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: probably be overweight to Delvall and then I don't know
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: if I'm gonna completely fade matt but I'm definitely looking
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: to get other underdogs instead.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: So you prefer Matthews to Pinero, Yeah, okay, I probably
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: prefer Pinero, just not necessarily. I like the upside for
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: Matthews more, but looking just win or in equity the
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: money line on a card that I mean, that's important
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: even if, like if Matthews, it's hard to see Matthews
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: losing and being optimal, even if no dogs win, like
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: he's probably just getting finished at the end of the day.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: Maybe not, maybe it's just a complete war. But whereas
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: it feels like Pinero has a little more out if
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: no favorite or if no dog wins, all favorites win
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: at sixty nine hundred supposed to go the distance feels
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: like a little higher floor. But I'm still not playing
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: that way. I'm playing like a dog wins.
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: And I guess I don't know that I like him more.
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: I would say if I was making one hundred and
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: fifty lineups, I'd probably have more exposure to Pinero. But
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: the way I'm thinking is, I'm making twenty or less
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: and I'm just gonna x out Panero at the start,
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: and I don't know that I'm for sure exit now.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: Matthews maybe makes it into one of the twenty, but
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: I would guess I just ex them both out and
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: I don't have a preferred play.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair. I don't like by any means, I
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: don't like either of them. I'm not playing Matthews. I
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: don't want to get to Pinera. But like I'm also
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: not playing a Lease Reid, Like I just hate the
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not playing Gilbert Burns. Maybe maybe Big Marley can
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: talk me into a little bit, but probably not. I
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: keep getting burned by it. But moral of the story,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: I just hate cheap underdog. So Pinero will be in
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: my pool for that. Matthews money keeps going against him.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: I think he gets another l all right, next fight,
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: closest lined and price on the car. Jared Gordon minus
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: won twenty four Thiago Moyses plus one oh four plus
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: two to twenty five for this fight to finish Moyses
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: plus two eighty five incend a distance Gordon plus seven hundred.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: So the line flipped. Moyses opened the favorite minus one
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: seventy plus one forty on the way back for Gordon.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Now Gordon the favorite at minus one twenty four. But
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: with all that being said, inside the distance props the
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: underdog and Mois is much better open plus three hundred
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: now plus two to eighty five Gordon open plus six
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: fifty now plus seven hundred, So money going to Gordon,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: but for finishing props, money going to Moises. How do
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: you see this fight going? Tricky? Mid tier fight.
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Moist is the better finisher, He's the more dangerous
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: grappler in this one. Gordon has a more questionable chin too,
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: so maybe Moist is more likely for the TKO. But
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: the best part of his game is is grappling for sure.
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: He's just not a good wrestler. Gordon is a pretty
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: good wrestler. I think he could actually push a pace
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: with the wrestling, but you don't want to do that
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: in this vice, in this fight against a good grappler,
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: So Gordon should be looking to keep this fight on
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: the feet. Land two to every one of Moys's strikes,
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: and I think he wins two or three rounds on
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: the card, So that's how I see it going. I'll
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: get some Gordon exposure, but I don't know that his
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: volume is going to be high enough to make the
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: optimal lineup, because I would not expect more than one
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: takedown from him in this matchup personally. And then Moist
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: is definitely uh underweight play for me. I mean, with
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: ten or less lineups, I'm exing them out twenty or less.
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna try and get to other dogs. Also, because
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: everyone else we talk about going forward, I think all
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: of those dogs are in play, the ones we've talked
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: about more so now I'm cool getting rid.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: Of Yeah, that makes sense. I'm in agreement with that
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: for the most part too. So Gordon, this fight, Santo's fight,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Park fight, one of them's optimal? Which one is it?
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: Park fight?
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: All right? I agree? I agree. All let's keep it rolling.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: Next fight on the car matteas Camelo minus two twenty
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: five taking on gave Green plus one ninety this fight
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: minus one eighty to finish plus one oh five Camillo
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: inside the distance plus three fifteen for Green. So another
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: fight the under has that hit minus won fifty for
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: this fight to finish. It opened now minus one eighty.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: That's a good good amount of money. Camilla open minus
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: one forty now minus two to twenty five. Little money
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: got down to minus two point fifty. Little bit of
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: money coming back on Gabe Green. But the under and
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: Camillo has taken money. I mean, yeah, we haven't seen
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Gabe Green since that brutal Brian Battle knockouts. Now he's
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: cutting down weight, been dealing with some injuries. It sounds
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: like the chin's questionable. Like when he gets going and
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: the later the fights go very very big, heart, good volume,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: just all around solid mixed martial artists, especially on the
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: offensive side, but the chins are worrying getting up there
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: in age making a weight cut. And this Camillo dude
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: looks pretty good. Man. I was impressed with the striking,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm buying into the younger guy again. Twenty
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: four years old, uh twenty thirty two for Green. Eight
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: year difference gave Green injuries coming off a long layoff,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: Give me the younger kid and yeah, I mean plus
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: one oh five to finish. He's someone I can play
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: and leave a good chunk of money at only eighty
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: six hundred without sack fighting much upside. I'm playing Gay
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: Green too though, like talk about live dog, if he
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: wins over six significant strikes per minute, he probably has
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: a good chance to be optimal in a win. So
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: I like this fight. What about you, y'reh im mute?
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, I like this fight. I think both sides
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: are in play. I like the Camillo side based on
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: his striking as well. I just think he's gonna need
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: the knockout for him to be on the optimal lineup
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: because if it's a three round striking match, I don't
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: know that he's gonna have enough volume to get there.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: Maybe I don't really know enough about his ground game.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: I didn't see enough of his his fight film. But
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: I think Green's the more likely guy to mix in
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: the takedown or two, and he does have the volume
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: that we mentioned or you mentioned. So Green is definitely
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: playing for an easy ten X. I think if he wins,
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: but he's got like ninety point up sides, So I
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: do like Green as an underdog. I'll be mixing him
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: into a good amount of lineups maybe overweight to him,
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: and that could make him my preferred play. I guess
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: based on him being more owned. But if I'm just
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: going and I'm making a handbolt lineup clicking on a
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: fighter first, I feel like I'm clicking on Camillo before
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: I'm clicking on Green, if that makes sense. So I
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: don't even have like a preferred play on this one.
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: I'm just fine tossing either one of them into lineups.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: I agree with you. Like if at the end of
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: the day I had thirty three percent Green twenty two
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: percent Camillo, and I liked everything else, I would roll
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: with it. Kay Green is one of my favorite underdogs
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: on the slate, talking seven point six k in below
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: money lines, fair volume, solid inside the distance, prop isn't bad, Like, yeah,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: when he wins, he has some bit of a ceiling
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: a pretty high floor. I should put it that way,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: and we'll take a high floor as any underdog this week.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: So yeah, good fight. I'm excited for that one in
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: real life, even though I'll miss it. That's one I
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: want to go back and more than likely watch. Hey,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: another fight. I want to watch. This should be fun.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: Any juicyj fight Mel Costa minus Julian Rosa plus one
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: fifty five minus two to oh five for this fight
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: to finish Costa plus one fifteen inside the distance a
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: Rosa plus two fifty so you can see right here
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: minus one seventy. When I wrote this up Monday, to
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: finish now minus two to oh five. Both guys inside
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: the distance prop has been hammered. Juicy J. I mean,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: look at this guy, six point four significant strikes per minute,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: one point sixty three takedowns. He's just someone that I
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: like targeting fights for on both ends. So today this
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: week no different. I'll play some cost I'll play Arosa.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: If I had to pick a side, I'm taking the
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: twelve hundred savings for Juicy J. But yeah, I think
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: the field, let's see what we have otership. We have
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: him as the second highest owned underdog, and I think
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: that probably probably does come to fruition. So seeing that,
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: I think it's still good chalk because again he wins.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: He's on the winner. But now Costa looks like a
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: leverage play. And Rouzy Boye for three hundred more, but
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: that's an next highest price, will definitely be higher owned
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: after that from Costa Canilo Park, they'll all be pretty similar. Yeah,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: probably still JUICYJ for the savings, but he's gonna be owned,
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: there's no doubt. What do you like in this fight?
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: I like both sides. It's gonna be a fight I
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: target quite a bit. But Erosa will be one of
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: my highest, if not my highest one underdog on the card.
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: He's just good everywhere. He's a good striker. He strikes
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: at a high pace. He's got punches, he's got kicks.
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: He is also a dangerous grappler. He's got a lot
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: of submission wins. I don't think he's ever been submitted, though,
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: and I would give him the grappling edge in this fight.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: The striking edge probably goes to Coasta. I just think
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: he's faster. The chin of Erosa is the biggest issue
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: for him. Anytime he steps in the octagon, he can
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: get knocked out. To be honest with you, but Costa
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: is just not like a knockout striker. I don't think.
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: I don't really view him as that. But he's definitely
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: lied to knock out a Rosa in any round. He
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: could also land good volume himself. He could mix in
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: takedowns too. So both sides have one hundred points ceilings.
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: I'm picking a Roussa to win, though, so he's my
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: preferred play.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: I like it, like it. We got a dog as
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: the pick. Yeah, twelve hundred savings definitely a rosa. But
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: with how much the unders Ben steam Coast to like
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: plus one fifteen inside the distance for only eighty seven
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: hundred as leverage off of someone that will be popular,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: like you can leave money with him on the table too.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: So yeah, this is a fight I want to get
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: over overweight on, no doubt about that. Talk about another
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: fight I want to get overweight on would be my
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: favorite fight when we're talking for dfs on the card,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: it's Nurrzelton, Rosie Boy and minus two eighty taking on
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: Dustin Stolesfis plus two forty minus four hundred for this
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: fight to finish Rosie Boy of minus two thirty inside
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: the distance Stolsfus plus four fifty inside the distance and
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: then Rosie boye in round one plus one hundred open
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: plus one thirty. So yeah, money coming in on the under.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: It's either Roosie Boy at first round knockout or maybe
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: second round knockout or does in Sotulsfous I think is
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: just gonna does do what he does mix in takedowns.
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: Good wrestler stay safe on top. I mean Buckley exposed
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: Rousie Boya's ground game. I'd lay four for four on
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: takedowns six and a half minutes of control time. I mean,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: just with ease, did Buckley do it? Soulsfoos does wrestle.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: You can see it right on the stone. Two point
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: three to one takedowns per fifteen. Does Rousie Boya probably
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: knock him out? I don't know. Maybe at these odds though,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: Like I'm picking Dustin Stolsfous, I think the past clear
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Roosie Boy and maybe knocks him out. I'll play something
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: at nine K. I'm good building Morales team, take Morales out.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: Go Rousie boy of leave seven hundred. Roosie Boy is
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: one of the best plays on the slate, one of
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: the highest ode plays on the slate. Soulsfou's massive leverage
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: if he wins wrestling minus four hundred to finish, just
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: so much checks out for that side. So yeah, if
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: I had to pick one fight to be my favorite
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: in DFI, if I had a lock one fight, this
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: would be the fight I'd pick. Break down this one.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: What do you see?
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I give Rusa Boy of the striking edge. Stultzus
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: the grappling edge. A boy could knock him out in
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: any round, could have multiple knockdowns along the way. Stultzos
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: actually coming off a knockout win of his own, but
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: he could win. I think any win from Stultzis puts
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: him over ten X and likely on the optimal lineup,
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: probably more likely ninety or more points. And I think
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: he's on some new supplements that are working out for
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: him right now, so I'm not against going overweight to Stultzvos.
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: This is gonna be one of my higher own fights
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: on the card. I'd be cool getting leverage to both sides,
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: and maybe I even flip this to A three and
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: a three star wise, and then shit, I'll make on
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: my lineups, I might have more Stultsa's lineup than us. Boy,
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know on this one, so I'll definitely change
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: it as I start building, But this is one where
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna have it in the majority of my
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: handbuilt lineups, and when I'm making Sabersim lineup, It's just
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: gonna end up in a lot of them because I'm
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: gonna have stultz Was projected for a lot of uh
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: for more points than people who are priced higher than him.
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: And same thing with Ruzy Boy, but I might have
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: him for projected more points than Tisha and for more
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: than Gome, So I'll just end up with a ton
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: of this fight.
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, if I was playing five teams or less, i'd
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: have one hundred percent. Like if I'm handbuilding five, I'm
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: playing one hundred percent of this fight twenty lineups. It's
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: a little too much, I think to make that full stand.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: But if Saberson gave me that fight and I liked
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: everything else, by no means what I say, no like
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: a Rosie Boy of second round knockout, the scores one
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: oh two and just others in the nine k just
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: out like you, just one oh two wasn't enough that
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: could happen. So I guess that's the main reason I
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: don't really want to do it. But yeah, I think
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: Roozie Boy gets him earlier. Souls Fu's puts on a
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: clinic wrestling and just grinding him out, and you take
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: any win at that price. So great fight to target.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Another one I'll be looking for or looking watching a
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: replay back for DFS. All right, three fights left mid
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: tier fights closely line fight Myron Santos minus one thirty
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: five sadik USI plus one fifteen plus one fifty for
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: this fight to finish, Santos plus two to twenty inside
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: the distance USI plus five hundred it's another line movement
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: plus one eighty five for this fight to finish at
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: open now plus one fifty under being hit. Do these dudes?
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: Do these two go in the middle, swing power shots
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: until one falls, or in absolute war like the Adsenbarbosa
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: Yusif fight, or do you think it's more slower pace
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: fought at range? Neither guy is known for wrestling two strikers,
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: so we pretty much need to finish just how I'm
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: seeing it. Santo's much more likely for that, so by nature,
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: by default, he's my preferred place. Since I think he
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: has more upside, he has my pick to win two.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Just think he's the better striker at this point. Worried
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: about Yusa's chim. How do you got it?
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah? It should be a fun striking match. Santos is
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: a solid striker, dangerous on the feet too. But if
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: he doesn't get a knockout, I just don't know how
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: he's gonna hit ten X. And as a favorite on
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: this card, I think you're gonna have to hit more
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: than ten x, so for me, it's definitely gonna be
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: Yusuf for past. I think Yusuf is very live to
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: win this fight. He's a very good striker too. I
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: think he could land a more volume in this one.
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: He's fought and beat the better competition. He's had time off.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: Who knows what he's been working on there, but I
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: would imagine. I mean, I don't know that he's gonna
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: get better rather than worse, but I mean, he's thirty
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: one years old, so I'm definitely not counting him out.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: And I think that the line should be flipped on
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: this one. So I'll be overweight to Yusuf, but not
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: that not by much because I think he's playing for
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: sixties and seventies points in a win here. I don't
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: think he's gonna be a lock for the optimal even
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: if he does get it done. So I'll get you know,
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: twenty maybe twenty five percent yusof and that that'll put
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: me overweight. But I'm not gonna go too crazy with him.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: This fight or the Santos Lisboa fight.
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: The Santos liz Boa fight, but I might have more
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: use of than either of those.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah, man, like this mid tier again.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: Mid tier expect to go the distance. Mid tier expected
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: to go the distance. Mid tier expected to go to
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: the distance. Mid tier expected to go the distance. Last week,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: the mid tier was couldn't have been any stronger. One
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: of the better mid tiers we've seen. This week one
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: of the worst mid tiers we've seen. So problem is
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: the dog sting too in my opinion, Like, I wouldn't
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: be surprised that Lewina Pinierro gets a couple of takedowns
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: scores forty one in a loss. That could be optimal.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: Like that's the reason I'm playing a little bit. That is,
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: like she gets forty one, then us of gets fifty
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: five in a win. I mean, I'm taking the one
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: thousand savings all day for twenty points less, hoping my
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: favorite morales compared to eighty six hundred. You know what
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: I'm saying, Coasta morales. I'm just hoping morales I was
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: posted by twenty in a win and it goes that way.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: Like we could see some funky, funky optimals our people
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: at the top of the leader board this week, is
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: all I'm saying. Yeah, all right, two fights left Rudolpho
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: Bolotto minus six hundred, Paul Craig plus four to twenty
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: five minus six hundred for this fight to finish Blotto
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: minus three hundred inside the distance, Craig plus four to
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: seventy five. Take it away. What are you doing?
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: I'm probably man, I don't know. I'm probably loading up
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: on it because I got it as a five star.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: I think it most likely plays out as a Ballotto
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: knockout or Craig submission. Just to worry would be that
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: it turns into one of those Craig striking matches where
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: the other guy's just too scared to do anything, and
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: it could be a Ballotto forty five point win just
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: because it stays on the feet. Yeah, something like that.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: So I am hesitant to have this as a five star,
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: but when I'm making lineups, I do want to be
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: clicking on both sides of this. I think Craig could
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: go out there as a plus four hundred and dominate
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: this guy, just get one leg, take him down, and
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: then be Lotto do absolutely nothing. Craig submit him in
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: the first round, break the slate. So I do want
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: to be overweight to Craig for sure, But if he
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: can't grab that leg and get the takedown. He's not
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: going to do anything on the feet and Blotto has
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: big time powers, so I feel like Blotto will knock
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: him out if the submission's not there for Craig. But
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: either way, I think we're geting to finish.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. I know, Hot Take here by
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: far the most likely fight to finish on the card.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: But like you said, the worry always is is I mean,
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: Paul Craig's so dangerous on the mat. One mistake, like
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: you just slip and fall on Paul Craig's on top.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: Uh oh, like one mistake? So people do fight more
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: cautious or can fight more cautious or if you don't,
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: my man Sweet Dreams found out with the limp arm
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: like real quick. He should have fought more cautious. So yeah,
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: like I prefer you. So you have this fight, Morales
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: fight and the rus Boy fight, all five stars. How
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: would you rank those three?
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: Ah? Yeah, that's so close because I don't think any
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: of them are. We have to be one hundred percent
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: all in. But on this card with all the other
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: two stars that I have, and we got a one
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: star war T shirt, I just I'm gonna flock to
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: these fights so much where they're all very similar, and
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: I'm just gonna have a ton of all of them.
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: I would say, oh, man, I don't know. Maybe to
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: be different, we'll say this one first, Rosy Boya fight, second,
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: Morales fight third.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I got Rosy Boya fight first, this fight, second,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: Morales fight third. I'm not playing Gilbert Burns in twenty
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: teams or less, and Morales price take me in so high,
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: like one ten might not be enough, So that's the
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: reason for that. But yeah, like it's a pretty big gap,
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: to be honest. I love that Rosy boy As Tulsa fight,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: so I feel pretty big gap there that it'd be
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: the crag in the Morales fight pretty close. After that,
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: you just saying like right away, like Craig gets one takedown,
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: it could be at over first round submission. After that
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: makes me on a card that I'm crossing awful lot
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: of cheap dogs. Probably prefer Paul Craig when you say
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: it like that, but I mean, man, a lot of
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: still taking money. He's way more powerful. Craig has nothing
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: on the feet, Like it's really hard to pick Craig,
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: but he finds ways to fies, ways to win fights.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. So yeah, I'll be playing
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: both sides. Probably my second favorite fight on the card.
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: Main event time, Big Marley again, appreciate everyone that's been
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: hanging out with us. One hunter k up top this week,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: twelve fights. Everything will be up on shipping nation on Friday. Projections, ownership,
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: if there's any changes right here, the odds will be updated. Cors.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: You'll see the three cores here, the phades. All this
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: is color coded. We have MMA, we have the slate plan.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: I break down all the fights. Pig Marley breaks down
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: all of his fight rankings, puts the stars to it,
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: picks winners by what round, by what submission, ko et cetera.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Core report, cash cores, GPP, corps, projections, ownership again, all
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: loaded into sabersome to the best optimizer out there. If
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: you do want to join Djen, seventy five is the code.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: Get you seventy five dollars off your first month, less
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: than a dollar a day. Oh man, no burns. I'm
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: thinking about locking burns now. This is the reason to
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: maybe place some burns. Yeah, we'll get to it right now.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: Main event time Michael Morales minus eight hundred, Gilbert Burns
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: plus five point fifty minus two sixty for this fight
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: to finish, Morales minus two twenty inside the distance Burns
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: plus eight point fifty. Part of the reason that I
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: said no Burns is we have them as the most
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: popular underdog. I think that saves the case because people
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: can make a case for he loses he's on the
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: optimal and I agree, but under three and a half
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: favored at minus one forty, Morales is taking money round
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: one now plus three hundred, So big Marley, I'm gonna
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: have you break down the fight. But if this fight
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: finishes before three and a half rounds, so even third
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: round before two and a half minutes, and Burns loses,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: what odds do you think he has it to be
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: on the optimal? Do you think he needs all twenty
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: five minutes? Start with that approach, break down this fight,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: and then what are you doing for dfs?
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: So if he loses and it's under three and a
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: half rounds?
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: Correct, So Morales wins in one, two or three in
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: the first two and a half minutes around three, yeah,
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: I would.
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: Say like six seven percent optimal tops.
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: And he and he just gets a couple of takedowns
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: and then gases out after that, but he competes early.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: That makes sense. Being popible.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Morales just up and comer.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: Possible title contender, possible title holder in the future. He's young,
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: twenty five, he's he's tall, long, he's a good striker,
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: he's a good wrestler. But this is his first big
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: time fight. He is his toughest competition to date, and
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: he's a minus eight twenty favorite. To me, I think
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: that's a little bit crazy. He's he definitely deserves to
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: be the favorite because he should be able to dictate
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: where the fight takes place. And as long as you
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: don't get as long as you don't let Burns get
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: on top of you or knock you out. Burn's got
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: big time power too, then Morales should be the clear
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: minute winner in this one, especially with five rounds to
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: work with. Burns probably slows down as the fight goes along,
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: but at the same time, it's a Morales fight where
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: he's never been five rounds. He's young, he could have
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: that first mistake in this fight, So I want Burns
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: exposure for sure in this one. I don't know that
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna get as much as the field, but he's
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: still gonna be one of my higher owned underdogs probably,
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: And then Morales at ninety seven hundred, I think that
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: price tag makes it where we don't have to have him,
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: but he should put up a big score. I think
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: he gets a knockout at some point in this fight.
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: He could get takedowns along the way too, if you
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: really want to play with fire. But I just have
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: no issue going to Blotto instead of him saving three hundred,
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: going to Ruzaboyev instead of him saving seven hundred, coast
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: to save a thousand. So he's not an absolute must have,
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: but for him to be the main event five rounds
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: to work with the UFC wants him to win, I
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: think he should go out there, put on a show,
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: and if he gets the knockout, he probably does make
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: the optimal lineup, even at ninety seven hundred dollars, because
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: this card is just not the greatest, doesn't have the
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: highest of ceilings, and our other high ceiling car are
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: high ceiling fighters on this card could just end up
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: there with Morales on the ant too lineup.
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: So I like him, Yeah, I definitely like him too.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: The burn stuff I'm just thinking more and more about
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: because man, he might be thirty five percent owned. People
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: will use it in fight sacks. I'm not fight sacking
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: this week. I get it. Twelve fights, the last fights
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: you have, the more big favorites you have, the more
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: viable it is. I'm definitely not doing that. I just
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: do not think Burns wins it all. But he is dangerous.
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: He does have power when he lands. Still can't believe
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: usman ate that big shot against him. The moreles Fu
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: get fight like I was there alive, I'll never forget
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: that one Morelse was a huge favorite, but Adam Fugett
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: was given that dude some problems Morale's big third round finish.
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: But yeah, like I'm also looking at DraftKings the takedowns.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: So over point five for Burns minus one eighty five
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: over point five from Morales plus three hundred. Like you
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: said Morales can wrestle, I think he can now. I
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: don't know if he's gonna come out and shoot a
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: double leg in round one and try and go wrestle
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: with Gilbert Burns. Ham's not struggle taking him down with
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: the grappling, but man like point five or plus three hundred.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: Doesn't that seem kind of crazy? That also makes me
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: like him less in DFS, like he just striking a
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: third round knockout probably isn't enough at that price if
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: he hasn't wrestled, So yeah, that has to be stumped
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit. I prefer Roosie boy of I prefer Bolotto,
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: I think for the savings, but I don't know. It's
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: it's tough up top.
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I h yeah, I do think a third round
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: knockout from Morales does take him off the optimal lineup.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: I would think it would have to be a first
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: or a second round, or one where it just goes
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: into the fifth round and knockout and he just dominates
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: a gast out burn something like that. But I think
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: third round would almost be the worst possible outcome for
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: a Morales win here for sure.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: I agree. Yeah. I don't really have too much more
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: to add. I'm you'll see my final thoughts in the
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: Sleigh plan. I didn't plan on playing Burns of twenty
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: teams or less. Maybe that'll change a little bit, and
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: mainly for the fact of if it does go five rounds,
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: Burns is somewhat competitive. No dogs win Burns would like,
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: I think he'd have a better chance than Pinero, than Reid,
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: than Connor Matthews, Stole Swoos like, if he loses, he
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: probably just gets knocked out early. Paul Craig Like, if
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: he loses, I don't think he scores. So just saying
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: it all that way. At sixty five hundred, it allows
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: you to jam in a lot of favorites. I'm talking
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: myself into probably getting some burns, not for the fact
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: I think he wins, just the nature of this card.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: But yeah again, projections, ownership. Everything will be up tomorrow
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: at some points, Big Marley, great stuff. Final thoughts.
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: I'm in happy birthday ship at Nation. It's been a
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: fun two years, got plenty more to go. Hopefully we'll
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: add another ship or two it this week. Good luck
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: to you title, Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great week to ship it on the
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: ship in Nation. Birthday, Good luck temverybody out there again.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: I appreciate y'all hanging out like bund subscribe, bunt helps
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: us out a ton and DJed seventy five is the
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: promo code if you want to join, seventy five dollars
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: off your first month for Big Marley On titled Tound
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: good Luck, have a great weekend, Peace, be safe.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: Most Hans.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: Mother half Bysst Hans still mother, half guns, most hand
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: leads