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2022 Crop Tour Final Results · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get started.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: Today is August 5th.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Lucas Peters back with us for the second time today, and we're going to talk about the overall results for the crop tour here.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: This is our last podcast for the crop tour.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: So we're going to talk about all the fun numbers.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_01: How's that sound, Lucas?
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: That sounds like a good idea to wrap up the week, Mike.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_01: Awesome.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I am going to start with the overall breakdown of state by state yields, and then I'm going to give you the national yield right out of the right out of the gate here.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: So North Dakota, your state that you went through up there, we had a 140 yield, South Dakota 150, Minnesota 190, Nebraska 175, Iowa at 205, Missouri at 161, Illinois at 203, Indiana 184, and Ohio at 175.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: So a lot of those numbers may not mean much to you at the moment, but overall it gives us a national yield of 176.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: So when we broke it down, we found a yield just slightly lower than the USDA's 177 that they've been stuck at since May.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_01: So I am going to give a little bit of a breakdown state by state.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: We're just going to talk about some of the pros and cons to each state, how we came up with some of those numbers, and uh and then um we'll just have a little bit of a wrap-up talking about uh the the what can happen going forward, I guess, is uh is a little disclaimer there.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: So let's get started with North Dakota, Lucas.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_01: Um what did you think about North Dakota in a pretty short synopsis?
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yep.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, we didn't uh spend a lot of time in North Dakota, but uh, you know, heading into the southeast corner where most of the corn is growing in the state.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: Uh planted late, not as many acres, but uh I mean it's been consistent rain all year long up there.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: Uh crop looks great, it's just uh it's behind.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: And I think this is the the trend we're gonna see in a lot of these states is the crop's behind, and it's going to need, you know, most of uh, I mean, a good August, obviously, but most of a good September uh just to reach maturity and and get a good grain field period in there, which is asking a lot in North Dakota.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but if it does, I think that 140 number is pretty pretty doable.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: So the 23-year trend, 136 for North Dakota, five-year average is about 133.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, obviously, uh record a little bit lower than some of the other states, 158.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: So that does get held back a little bit.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_01: How about South Dakota?
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_01: What were your overall findings for that?
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: Yep, South Dakota is, you know, kind of the tail of two states, uh, or each side of the state, I guess.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: And this year it's north-south split.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: Uh in the north, similar to North Dakota, planted a little later, um, but uh, you know, in the very north, consistent, maybe even too much rain, east-central part of the state, timely rains to get us by, and then then the south, south I-90 there, uh drought, heat, lack of subsoil moisture really put a lot of stress on the crop.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, to kind of come up with our number, I know we if if two-thirds of South Dakota is sitting pretty good, assuming a normal uh fall, um, nothing, no early freezes or or things like that, uh, you know, that two-thirds is gonna have a really good yield.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but that bottom third is gonna have a really bad yield based on uh some of the things we've seen.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of that is getting too late.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: The or uh rain isn't going to help uh that crop.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: So um, you know, the 150 is kind of splitting the difference.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I think there's probably more upside in the South Dakota number than downside.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: If we do get a good fall um and grain sixth ended grain field period, that northern part of the state's really going to carry that through.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: But uh uh I 150 is probably a good start for now.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: After seeing what South Dakota was able to do last year with their conditions, you know, it's pretty hard to push it close to last year's number, I would argue, and five-year average for South Dakota, about 149.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_01: So uh a lot of variety in that state this year, uh, just like most.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: How about Minnesota?
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: How do you come out on that?
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: All right, so Minnesota, I think, has the uh the most upside potential, in in my opinion.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, a lot of the state looks really good.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and and over lunch we had a local seed dealer uh in saying, you know, fields around Laverne just look look great.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: Uh a lot of southern Minnesota does, western Minnesota does.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: There's pockets that are dry.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: Uh there's a stretch uh right across the kind of the I'll say central Minnesota, even though it's a little more south central, where it where the drought monitor is starting to show up.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: And unfortunately, it's just for those guys, it's the same place as it was last year.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: And the the potential is still there, and it's right across Rinville, Redwood counties, which are some of the biggest corn-producing counties uh in the state of Minnesota.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: So that's going to affect the overall state number.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but when you look at the forecast, if they can get some rain uh to hold on to to the ear tips and avoid that tip back, get some decent kernel size built in there.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you know, 190 or where we're at now, you know, with the right conditions, I think Minnesota could uh could really crank out and and add some bushels to that number.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: But also on the flip side, if we don't, um, you know, we could drop five bushels because that area uh that produces the most corn stays dry, that's going to give up the tips and and knock uh yield off.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: So I think 190 uh is a safe number based on the forecast, uh, but probably's got uh three, four bushel upside to it if with the right weather conditions.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_01: And uh five-year average on Minnesota there 183.6 record was one ninety-four.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: So kind of floating in between those two at the moment, uh, could push up to that record if things really fill out well here going forward.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: Nebraska, I'll I'll reach into some of these uh other states here.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_01: Nebraska was obviously one of the uh the bigger problems with holding uh yield back this year.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of uh a lot of drought covering a majority of the state.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_01: And uh I'll tell you what, the dry land's gonna hold things back.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_01: The irrigation, uh, it seems like that's just gonna be uh that's gonna be fine this year.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_01: The the bigger corn producing uh areas in Nebraska are found in the southeast side of the state, which those are not in drought conditions, like York, for example.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_01: They did have some more adverse weather with some hail and things like that, but overall uh they're in the clear in the southeast side of the state.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_01: So that's gonna help uh make up for some of the yield uh that we're gonna be losing in the north Nebraska.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: Um I don't know how much you can ask out of it.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I came in at a at a decent 175, but um, I just don't know how bad bad is gonna be in Nebraska and uh how much those better areas can pull some of those really dry spots out of it.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_01: So that'll be a a problem that we we know going forward.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't see anything on the crop door uh to suggest um kind of different than what our expectations were going into it.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um and if you've got any comments on these states, Lucas, please chime in.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we'll do.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: Iowa.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: Uh you know, you uh you got pretty close to Iowa.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: We've talked about it a little bit, so you could uh add into this one.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it's the tale of two cities, it's uh the wild card here.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna call it this year again for um for the United States yield, and most years it probably will be.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_01: It grows more acres of corn than any other state.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_01: It's usually a top two yield, and when you carry a pretty big stick, you usually get some variety in there and you matter.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_01: So northwest Iowa was my really hot spot that I wanted to hit in this, and uh and then eastern Iowa.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_01: So how good was eastern Iowa and how bad is northwest Iowa?
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_01: Now we all know northwest Iowa, great soil, great corn production area.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: Uh it's been dry.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um it's a pretty hard crop to kill or hold back just because they have such a great soil profile there, so it's holding on really well, I thought, compared to uh to compared to what they could have been.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: But once I got out of the really dark, deep soil profiles a little bit more east, it did start to show more drought than I thought I would see out of Iowa.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_01: So for what it's worth, um I know I talked about it in the podcast here for yesterday, but um I would say that uh, you know, the northwest side is holding on fine.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: They're gonna really need some rains this weekend, um, and then they'll be just fine, I think, for holding towards uh just below average yield up there in a lot of those spots.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_01: Some they've already taken off quite a bit of production towards Kassooth and and whatnot there.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_01: But um, you know, the eastern side of the state, probably near record yields, that was best looking corn that I saw on the trip.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_01: So how much of that is gonna make up for it uh for that northwest corner lacking a little bit.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_01: I had a 205 yield, which um that's gonna come in uh a little above the 195 five-year average, a little bit uh pretty much right at a record, not quite for the state.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_01: And uh, I'm just uh considering really good corn still out of southwest.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_01: I know there's some drier areas down there in Iowa, but uh Pottawanomy was really good yet, and um you know the eastern side of Iowa for a majority looks great.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_01: And seeing what they did last year with how much drought they were in, um, I have pretty good expectations for this crop year yet.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_01: Other than yeah, go ahead.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_00: But so so this is the in and we I know we talked about this last year, Mike, when when I was on the the full crop tour with you.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: Uh I mean Iowa last year was in the drought uh monitor, I mean, most of the state for you know for a long time.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: And and we thought, boy, this is is there's gonna be some pretty tough areas.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: And driving around the state the last week of July last year, we didn't see that many poor-looking areas.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and it kind of sounds similar to this year of except we expected it to look good in a lot more areas this year.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I just struggle with how is Iowa not gonna beat last year uh given probably better weather overall.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: Uh and I know Northwest is dry and and uh and that's you know relatively close to home, so we can see that.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: And they've taken 20-30 bushel off, but 20-30 bushel in northwest Iowa probably is still 200 bushel corn.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: Um I I'm not saying the 205 is wrong, it's just like I I think that's still way achievable.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_01: It's hard to push it under last year's yield for sure.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's really hard to do that.
• 11:54
  unknown: Yeah.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_01: And to uh to wrap some states up here, Missouri, um, we know that's a little bit uh um a little bit lower production state for uh some of the other ones we went through, but you know, most of the most of the corn's grown in the north part of the state, which was fine, and uh the southern side of the state was too dry, now it's flooding, but uh thankfully it it's just out of corn country for the majority of the state there.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_01: So uh that one should end up pretty average, uh decent crops there from what we saw driving through the northern part of the state.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_01: Illinois, um, you know, that was uh I had pretty high expectations going into it.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: The western part of the state was just like eastern Iowa, uh, near perfect crops.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_01: They were really excited about those crops.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the eastern side kind of towards the Indiana border.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_01: I was a little bit disappointed with some of the length and uh years that we were continually finding compared to years prior.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um it wasn't a bad crop, don't get me wrong.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_01: I just had maybe a little bit too high of expectations.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_01: That droughty area maybe had a little bit more of an impact earlier than I gave it credit for.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_01: The good news is they've been getting a lot of rain lately, so they're gonna finish a crop off really well.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_01: They uh it rained when we were there most uh both days going through Indiana and Illinois.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: So uh improving weather conditions, we've seen some improvements on the drought map.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_01: Um but that you know late planning was really known and seen there from what I saw, and I think that could take a little bit of the top off, and that's one of the reasons I didn't have Illinois uh really going for a real strong record there at 210.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's gonna hold it back to a 203.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_01: Um, that's why I can't quite get up to that level on Illinois, but still a really good crop.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and and I would say, Mike, I was that's that maybe was the most surprising number that I had after you know we've talked.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: I expected you come back with 210, 215, um you know, something crazy off of and with uh with these recent rains, they still might get that.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I don't know how much credit to give the end, but man, that late planning had to have an impact.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: And that's it and and maybe that's what it is.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: It's you know, it uh you see the stuff on social media and you look at Illinois, and yeah, there's a couple drought pockets, but it's not terrible.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: And and I know there's some areas, and I got a friend in by Champaign that uh has uh you know a little bit more tip back than he'd like to see.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, he's not gonna get 230, he's gonna get 200, and um, you know, that uh that all adds up.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: But I that was probably the one of the more surprising numbers that uh uh you came back with, in in my opinion.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_01: I'd agree.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: The Indiana, similar story.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: Western part was a very similar story to the Illinois um side of things, struggled early on with some drier conditions, late planning across most of the entire state.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and then just it was just enough late planning and probably imperfect conditions um on the eastern side really to just hold yield back just enough.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_01: Um it appeared as if length wasn't uh uh wasn't quite there for those samples either.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_01: Um I think it is worth mentioning more.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_01: Indiana, I really noticed poor soybeans.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_01: That was one of the most uh inconsistent states I thought from a um uh kind of a car window for soybeans, as we all know how hard it is to judge their yield at this time of the year.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_01: But um, yeah, I I think corn yields may not be a record, but uh it was far from a poor crop to just say the least on Indiana.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_01: So on that one there, I came in at 184, and you know, that's pretty much right at trend, right at the five-year um average on that one, and uh a little bit off the 195 record on Indiana.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_01: Uh Ohio, you know, the central part of the state was fine, um, kind of towards Columbus from a lot of the guys that I talked to there.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um the main concerns were in the uh the main concerns were found in the western part of the state where it was just really late planning.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, s really s really short corn, uh not even getting close to tasseled yet in some fields, uh, had a couple good pictures from that.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_01: The good news was it it uh you know it seemed pretty small, southwest side of the state, still had good production near average levels.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_01: That's a main producing part of the state, and then more towards a central part.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: So uh maybe that area just wasn't big enough to really push the Ohio yield too too low, anyways, for what it could have.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_01: But as as we wrap up now, that's all nine states that we visited uh here at Professional Ag Marketing on our tour.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_01: And I I would say as a overall observation, you know, early on we started at a 181 yield for the USDA, and they pulled that back to 177 with late planning.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_01: I think we saw that on the tour.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I think it was uh justified anyways from what we saw so far.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um a lot of these areas though, including the rains this weekend, depending on what happened, uh this could really save some crops and specifically northwest Iowa or the Dakotas, Minnesota, southwest Minnesota, where it was getting a little bit dry right on the edge.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_01: And then it's really hitting this eastern corn belt hard to finish off that crop.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_01: So I I would say the crop in the majority is finishing off quite well for what it could have gone in that direction.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: And uh, I don't know, what do you got to say, Lucas, about uh wrapping up?
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yep, so so I want to echo your comment on the late planting.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I you know, in February we come out with you know 181 and and then in May uh they drop it to 177, and and I probably well, I'd not probably definitely did not give the late planting uh affecting overall yield uh as much credit as probably it it should have.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_00: Or um I thought we'd go out there.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_00: I I thought we would after the crop tour, you know, I had kind of written down 178 and a half in uh on a notebook before you left and said, I bet that's where Mike comes back at.
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, it's it's a little bit of drought, but I think it is some of the lay planting.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_00: Um we're gonna need a a perfect fall uh in order to to get to the number that where where I think it could be.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_00: Um and and I guess the other observation, and uh, you know, you you do a great job, Mike, of putting the pictures of the years that you're looking at and things.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_00: You know, you look at the maturity, uh, we know it was planted late.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: Um there was a lot of you know, you know, throughout the Corn Belt, May 10th, May 15th planting was a pretty common plant date, um, you know, whether you were in uh South Dakota or Illinois.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, that's got something to do with uh the yield, but you know, you look at the maturity on those pictures.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_00: Last year we went a week before on the crop tour than we did this year, yet when you compare, or you know, maybe the same maturity, maybe even last year a little farther along, and we were a week earlier.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, it on corn we we track heat units.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of the areas the heat units are are slightly ahead or or danger right on five-year averages.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_00: Um and I it's maybe that late planting is affecting maturity.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_00: Would you agree to that as as you were driving around?
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_01: Definitely.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_01: We were uh even versus last year, we were a week earlier, like you said, and I I could tell a difference.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_01: We only saw like one field that was dented, I think, on the crop tour.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_01: Uh a lot of earlier, probably R2, R3 stuff, stage-wise.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_01: So it uh that impacted the tour a little bit.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_00: Um it makes it a little bit harder to get a perfect count to uh but and and so you know that's what I would say a lot of the stuff I looked at was was R2, maybe some R3 in southern Minnesota.
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_00: Um so we're uh you know, we're still a good uh 30 to 45 days to black layer across this, which puts us, you know, third, fourth week of September for most of it.
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_00: Um you know, you you think about that and you look at this forecast coming up.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I know it's still trended uh above normal.
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, luckily normal temperatures start dropping down a little bit.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, if we can maintain these low 80 temps uh to pick up some shots of rain, maybe the a good fall can help us finish the crop, add some weight, add some kernel size in order to push the yield higher uh for a few farmers out there.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_00: Um but I guess the question uh that that I got for you, Mike, um you know, you you drove across the corn belt, you know, what 2,500 miles or something like that.
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_00: Um went you know, after you you get back, you're looking at the forecast, you're looking at your numbers, you're looking at your pictures, you come out with 176 is yield that we kind of settled at here.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_00: Do you think uh, you know, in in three months when this this crop is hopefully in the bin, or close to being in the bin, is in US average going to be closer to 174 or 179?
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_00: What do you think's easier to go to?
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_01: That okay.
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_01: So uh when I start plugging in the numbers on the sheet and really getting a wide range to it, I I think it's really hard to get it um to get it above one seventy-eight from what I got.
• 21:37
  SPEAKER_01: And then one it's funny you said 174, because it's like 173, I can't really get it below either.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_01: And those are the wide ranges, and it's kind of easy for me to say that, right?
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_01: It's like, okay, well, that fits everybody's range of estimates.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_01: But a lot can change here in the next couple months.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_01: The USDA usually changes about two bushels from the August report to the final yield.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_01: And it's mixed 50-50.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_01: They usually raise it a couple bushels historically from the August report.
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, it'll be interesting to see uh what they have to say about maturity with their first sampling as well for this crop, but um that's the range.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_01: I say that it'd be a little bit easier to trend a little higher towards that 178 just because of some of these final rains, the way we're gonna finish this crop out, in my opinion.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_01: So um that would be forecast and weather a little bit, but that's the way I'm leaning.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: I and and I I I'm leaning that way too.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_00: Of the you look at the forecast and and things, I I think we're more likely to end up uh a little higher than we are uh going down more.
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_00: Uh unless you like say the the faucet turns off and then we get an early freeze and and we throw a bunch of more rocks at this thing and we could uh we could definitely sink it.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_01: But uh you're gonna have to change some of these numbers pretty dramatically, though, I think, in my opinion, to get too far out of whack either way.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna be pretty surprised if if we do uh personally, I guess.
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_00: So what are what are the states that you think could change the most?
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_01: Nebraska's the hardest to gauge, I think, because it's such a wide variety, you just don't know how bad is bad.
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_01: Um so I think that one could vary the most.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_01: They they carry a pretty big stick.
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_01: They uh they plant quite a bit of corn acres, and uh that's hard to gauge, I think.
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_01: The South Dakota's another one, but I mean the they plant, you know, a third as many acres as someone like Iowa, so when you start changing that one, that gets a lot more.
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't affect the overall yield near as much.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_01: So I mean the easy answer is Nebraska.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_01: That that's the one that could be anywhere on the board that uh I won't be surprised about if that does change a lot.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_00: No, I I tend to agree with you.
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_00: The the dry land I'm sure looks tough, but there's a lot of irrigated acres and and some of the best producing counties aren't suffering near as bad, so that's a hard number to pull.
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_00: I I and then Iowa.
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_01: Iowa, I would say don't be uh don't be shy about a record yield there.
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_01: Um if that wants to perform a little bit better, get some rains here at the end, that could finish out well.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_01: And then um I just don't know how much this late planning is gonna matter in the east.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_00: I uh I would echo all your comments and agree with you, Mike.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_01: Awesome.
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_01: Well, it was a a great tour once again.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for doing the northern route, Lucas.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_01: And if you guys want to chat with us, uh please we'll be sending out a a summary as well with a little bit more uh pictures, things like that.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_01: So uh please reach out to us.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_01: We had a lot of fun yet again, and uh your interaction uh with the audience there, that's uh one of the best parts about this crop tour.
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_01: So please reach out.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_01: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_01: Please reach out to us from our website at professionalegmarketing.com or check out our newly added hog specific podcast named Hog Market Talk that's released every Thursday.
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk and loss that is not suitable for all investors.