Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Betting The Masters and NFL Updates

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Betting The Masters and NFL Updates · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Network,
0:13
Speaker 1: Colin Calherd's podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman. I am
0:18
Speaker 1: going to be joined by my co host, my bff,
0:21
Speaker 1: my companion, professional better from the north coast of England
0:27
Speaker 1: to the south coast of Jersey. Mr Simon Hunter. Hello, friends,
0:36
Speaker 1: nicely done so for this whole podcast chat. I will
0:39
Speaker 1: be talking like this the entire time. It is Masters week.
0:42
Speaker 1: It's a peaceful week, and I'm excited that we're family here.
0:46
Speaker 1: I'm excited that we're talking about the Masters as well.
0:49
Speaker 1: It's an appropriate change in tone of voice. In a
0:53
Speaker 1: few minutes we'll be welcoming on Mr Jason Sobel, the
0:57
Speaker 1: premier golf writer of his generation, unseen at Augusta right now,
1:02
Speaker 1: this entire week covering it for the Action Network. We're
1:06
Speaker 1: super excited. We're gonna talk about some great storylines and golfs.
1:10
Speaker 1: We're going to get our Masters bets and picks in
1:14
Speaker 1: second Masters in six months. But first we're gonna turn
1:18
Speaker 1: up wait for it, the Volume. Get it, Simon, because look,
1:26
Speaker 1: every single week it's even though it's April, there's NFL
1:30
Speaker 1: news and this week the NFL gave us a doozy
1:33
Speaker 1: because we had Sam Donald, twenty three year old, by
1:37
Speaker 1: the way, three year old Sam Donald, grandson of the
1:40
Speaker 1: Marlborough Man, getting shipped out of New York for second
1:44
Speaker 1: round picks, for fourth round picks, for fifth round picks,
1:47
Speaker 1: whatever it is, doesn't really matter. He's out. He's going
1:51
Speaker 1: to a team that we all expected to pick up
1:53
Speaker 1: a quarterback, although Sam Donald was not the guy, the
1:57
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers. This has massive implication is to me across
2:00
Speaker 1: the draft. It has implications across the rest of the NFL.
2:04
Speaker 1: It has implications regarding what is happening with Deshaun Watson
2:08
Speaker 1: and why he hasn't moved, which we thought would be
2:11
Speaker 1: the quarterback move that was going to get us betting
2:14
Speaker 1: on teams like Carolina or the Raiders or Washington because
2:18
Speaker 1: we thought Deshaun Watson might land there. Clearly not happening
2:21
Speaker 1: anytime soon. Let's unpack this one by one, so as
2:25
Speaker 1: we come onto the air. As we start recording, Simon
2:30
Speaker 1: News broke that a woman who was identified herself has
2:35
Speaker 1: filed criminal charges against Deshaun Watson. This situation, obviously, you
2:41
Speaker 1: and I are not even remotely qualified to weigh in
2:44
Speaker 1: on criminal charges, on civil charges, on civil suits, on
2:50
Speaker 1: what is happening in these complaints against Deshaun Watson. Um,
2:55
Speaker 1: But clearly this is impacting so much about the trade market,
2:59
Speaker 1: quarterback move mint and the rest of the NFL. Yeah,
3:04
Speaker 1: and like you just said, we don't have all the
3:07
Speaker 1: facts yet. Uh, this is one of these things. Now
3:09
Speaker 1: that it is a criminal charge, he'll play out in court,
3:12
Speaker 1: and the more we read about it, the whole thing
3:16
Speaker 1: is just alarming. Uh. Like their defense his defense team
3:19
Speaker 1: trying to put out that he had twenty other mssus
3:21
Speaker 1: or massage therapists, say that he had been nothing but
3:25
Speaker 1: nice and polite to them, and so I brought the
3:27
Speaker 1: total of them up to like forty that we know
3:29
Speaker 1: about the people that he gets massages from. So that
3:31
Speaker 1: right there is weird. Um. And the fact that there's
3:35
Speaker 1: criminal charges now it's just heartbreaking because like we talked
3:39
Speaker 1: all that season, we're both huge fans of the Shawn Watson,
3:42
Speaker 1: the way he plays. I mean, if you ever heard
3:44
Speaker 1: of this kid's background, his story, it's truly incredible what
3:47
Speaker 1: he has come from to the life he's built. So
3:50
Speaker 1: it's heartbreak because it sounds like he's got demons and
3:54
Speaker 1: you just feel so awful for these women, like the
3:56
Speaker 1: fact he's had on their lives. So yeah, we're in
3:59
Speaker 1: this asition now where it's it's it's getting scary, it's
4:02
Speaker 1: it feels like I don't want to say what was
4:04
Speaker 1: gonna happen with this guy's career, but like I'm gonna
4:08
Speaker 1: turn it back to football. They're total right now. It's
4:10
Speaker 1: four and a half for Houston, Like, how do you
4:13
Speaker 1: not take that under with what's going on with him?
4:15
Speaker 1: We don't know. I just think there is value on
4:17
Speaker 1: that under. So we're just gonna try to keep this
4:19
Speaker 1: on the football side. And because we don't have all
4:21
Speaker 1: the answers yet, So for me, if the starters, I'm
4:24
Speaker 1: gonna fade this Houston team, and I just think it's
4:27
Speaker 1: it's right now, this is by far the worst franchise
4:30
Speaker 1: in football. Everything that's going on there, all the moves
4:32
Speaker 1: they made the last couple of years, it's just truly
4:35
Speaker 1: a fire. And for me, I'm just gonna going against it.
4:38
Speaker 1: So that's that, that's the out look on that. If
4:40
Speaker 1: we want to bring it to a brighter side with
4:42
Speaker 1: Carolina and the Jets, hey man, we're gonna break it
4:46
Speaker 1: down a lot. You're coming up without these quarterbacks. But
4:49
Speaker 1: I don't like what the Jets did. I am. I'm
4:52
Speaker 1: a Sam Darnall believer. Like you just said, twenty three
4:55
Speaker 1: years old, the man was under Adam gaze. Adam Gates
4:58
Speaker 1: is not respected by anyone on I mean, media work, coaches,
5:01
Speaker 1: people just think that guy is a buffoon. So when
5:04
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the whole situation, I'm thinking, this guy
5:07
Speaker 1: he was broken there. Like that whole clip of him
5:09
Speaker 1: saying he was seeing ghosts. I mean that that was
5:12
Speaker 1: that was haunted him for the last two years. So
5:14
Speaker 1: new start for him. For them, it's a great deal.
5:17
Speaker 1: It's two years. If he's a bust, they'll get rid
5:19
Speaker 1: of them. I mean, they guarantee the fifth year. I
5:21
Speaker 1: think it's nineteen million. They're sure. It's only paying them
5:23
Speaker 1: four million dollars, so they still have room to make deals,
5:25
Speaker 1: even though they do have Teddy on contract right now.
5:27
Speaker 1: But I love to move for Carolina for the Jets again,
5:30
Speaker 1: we'll get in the quarterback situation. Why not there? They
5:34
Speaker 1: know they have so many things they need to do.
5:35
Speaker 1: If that's what they want to do with the franchise.
5:37
Speaker 1: They want to start over at draft a quarterback. Who
5:39
Speaker 1: am I to say that's the wrong move because there
5:41
Speaker 1: is a really good croper quarterbacks this year. So if
5:44
Speaker 1: Joe Douglas as a guy target he like for the Jets, great,
5:47
Speaker 1: But for me, this is one of those where it's
5:50
Speaker 1: pretty much just it lowers the value on the Jets
5:52
Speaker 1: upcoming season there. It's one of those arobably looking towards
5:54
Speaker 1: their undercount just because they're in a division. Like we
5:56
Speaker 1: talked about, the Bills have improved, the Patriots have improved,
5:59
Speaker 1: and miamis approved. So the Jets feel like they took
6:01
Speaker 1: a step back. So I still look at them as
6:03
Speaker 1: the fourth seed in that division. What are you now
6:06
Speaker 1: looking at Carolina as a potential overplay like I already
6:11
Speaker 1: made like we talked about, we already been on team
6:13
Speaker 1: because we thought they were and played for Wattson. Sorry,
6:15
Speaker 1: I'm already invested in the Carolina. I'm gonna hold off.
6:18
Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait to bet their team total because I
6:20
Speaker 1: don't think there's gonna be too much moving on it
6:21
Speaker 1: um because I just want to see if they're gonna
6:23
Speaker 1: do anything else, because right now I'm still I'm still
6:27
Speaker 1: a little uneasy about teams that have a guy like
6:28
Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater there and Sam, Like I feel like that's
6:31
Speaker 1: just awkward. That isn't I know they say breeds competition,
6:33
Speaker 1: but I don't really like that whole situation. So for me,
6:36
Speaker 1: I'm not going to touch them anymore. But it's still
6:39
Speaker 1: that division is still the Bucks, you know what I mean,
6:41
Speaker 1: Like we me and you know, we don't think the
6:42
Speaker 1: Orange is alright, but with Winston, we still think that
6:45
Speaker 1: the gap between Winston and Brady is so huge that
6:47
Speaker 1: we're still we still like the Bucks for that division.
6:49
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm not I'm not touching anymore. What do
6:52
Speaker 1: you like about Sam Donald? Why are you a believer?
6:57
Speaker 1: I've seen these little moments he has of off ounce
7:00
Speaker 1: throws pressure in his face that are true, like you're
7:04
Speaker 1: just born with it. Like he he has gifts and
7:07
Speaker 1: at twenty three, the fact that he has three years
7:10
Speaker 1: of the NFL already under he knows what he's looking at.
7:13
Speaker 1: He gets the league. He just got moved to a
7:15
Speaker 1: different team, so he gets out it's a business. I
7:17
Speaker 1: just man, I I just can't get over the fact that,
7:22
Speaker 1: like we're talking about this draft coming up. These quarterbacks.
7:25
Speaker 1: Man like Zach Wilson, I can't get over how much hype,
7:29
Speaker 1: Like his agent is the greatest agent ever. But like
7:31
Speaker 1: the fact that he has all these networks, all these
7:33
Speaker 1: guys pumping him like this, Go look at this kid's numbers.
7:36
Speaker 1: He played for three years at b y oh Okay,
7:38
Speaker 1: I get it. He had an incredible year last year.
7:40
Speaker 1: Look at the tape and look at the years before that.
7:42
Speaker 1: So it's one of those where this this kid, I
7:45
Speaker 1: get it. I don't see any gap between him or
7:47
Speaker 1: Darnald Like I think honestly, Darnel coming out of college
7:49
Speaker 1: from USC, a top program against really good competition. When
7:52
Speaker 1: he came out, I had him. I had a higher
7:54
Speaker 1: grade on him than this sec Wilson. So again I
7:57
Speaker 1: think that I'm excited for Sam just because he actually
8:00
Speaker 1: got the chance here, where like Rosen, he didn't get
8:03
Speaker 1: a chance. He was done. And it's one of those
8:05
Speaker 1: where it is scary when you're getting moved like these quarterbacks.
8:07
Speaker 1: But again, we have so much time to break all
8:10
Speaker 1: this stuff down for the whole whole summer, but you're
8:12
Speaker 1: gonna see it. I'm gonna be definitely harp enough. Sam
8:14
Speaker 1: Donald because I just love what he's going into the
8:16
Speaker 1: weapons on that team of Carolina. Well, look, you're right,
8:19
Speaker 1: we got a long time to talk about it. Uh.
8:22
Speaker 1: And Zach Wilson is right now the odds on favorite
8:26
Speaker 1: to go to the New York Jets with the number
8:30
Speaker 1: two pick um, which would mean we're going with Trevor
8:35
Speaker 1: Lawrence to the Jags at number one, Zack Wilson to
8:39
Speaker 1: the Jets at number two, and the way the Twitter
8:42
Speaker 1: sphere is talking about it, it could be Mac Jones
8:44
Speaker 1: number three to the San Francisco forty Niners. And it's
8:48
Speaker 1: just going to be an amazing confluence to see how
8:52
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks go, how these teams are impacted, and then
8:56
Speaker 1: what we are doing, because like the trick to winning
8:59
Speaker 1: season win totals, the trick to winning futures is to
9:02
Speaker 1: bet it before all the pieces are done so you
9:05
Speaker 1: can get the best of the number. Um. That's what
9:07
Speaker 1: we've been trying to do since the season ended, for
9:10
Speaker 1: the past couple of months, and at this point, I
9:13
Speaker 1: bet every team's future outs, so I really I can't lose.
9:16
Speaker 1: That's really it, right, and that I'm not telling people
9:19
Speaker 1: a bet anymore because, like I said, me and you've
9:22
Speaker 1: already hit a lot of these. We've gotten the value.
9:24
Speaker 1: I'm not trying to get people out less value at
9:26
Speaker 1: this point in the season. Like we've kind of missed
9:27
Speaker 1: the window where the difference from right now until August
9:30
Speaker 1: it might only be a couple of hundred. So that's
9:33
Speaker 1: why I wouldn't worry too much about if you missed
9:35
Speaker 1: that on these odds, because they're not going to change
9:36
Speaker 1: that much at this point. All right, let's do what
9:40
Speaker 1: we came here to do, which is talked to talk
9:45
Speaker 1: to a man who maybe the most plugged in, the
9:50
Speaker 1: most connected, the most informed, the most celebrated, UH golf
10:00
Speaker 1: fighter of his generation. I think when you talk about
10:05
Speaker 1: golf writers, you talk about Dan Jenkins, and then you
10:11
Speaker 1: talk about Jason Sylwell of the Action Network, who is
10:15
Speaker 1: currently in a closet in Augusta getting ready to record
10:20
Speaker 1: this podcast and hosting his serious XM radio show, through
10:26
Speaker 1: whom he will also be doing day to day golf
10:29
Speaker 1: coverage during the Masters. Yes, Jason, Hello, Chad, Hello Simon.
10:34
Speaker 1: Two things. First of all, I think the intro needs
10:37
Speaker 1: a little work. Let's see if you can pump me
10:38
Speaker 1: up a little bit more, uh, Secondly, yes, it looks
10:42
Speaker 1: like I'm in a closet right here. I will tell you,
10:44
Speaker 1: first of all, this is the most soundproof booth that
10:47
Speaker 1: I could find in the entire place. And also I
10:50
Speaker 1: have basically turned this into my own office. Normally, as
10:55
Speaker 1: on a credential for a writer, like you sit in
10:57
Speaker 1: a spot. There's people next to you, and there's people
10:59
Speaker 1: in front you, behind you, and you've got this little
11:01
Speaker 1: space and it's better than every other media center in
11:03
Speaker 1: the entire world, but you're still just kind of sitting
11:06
Speaker 1: in a seat all day. I have procured an office
11:09
Speaker 1: in the bowels of the Augusta National Press Building, which
11:12
Speaker 1: is unprecedented, honestly, so I am pretty proud of myself
11:16
Speaker 1: that I was actually able to get this spot for
11:18
Speaker 1: the entire week. That's because you are the most celebrated, respected, informed,
11:25
Speaker 1: all freighter of your generation. How's it going to Augusta, Like,
11:29
Speaker 1: just give us some flavor and color. Not having been
11:31
Speaker 1: there for so long, it's great. I was not here
11:41
Speaker 1: in November, so it's been two years to the week
11:43
Speaker 1: that I have been at Augusta, and every time it's like,
11:47
Speaker 1: you know, going to Disney World for the first time,
11:49
Speaker 1: This place is amazing. Everything they do is just first class,
11:52
Speaker 1: top notch. The golf course is going to be fantastic
11:55
Speaker 1: this week. I think that what we saw in November
11:58
Speaker 1: was a very different kind of masters. We saw a
12:01
Speaker 1: soft golf course. There's nothing you can do. It's just
12:04
Speaker 1: going to be. Uh. It's going to be a lot
12:06
Speaker 1: different in November than it is in April. And so
12:09
Speaker 1: this golf course is gonna bite back this week. It's
12:11
Speaker 1: already fast and firm as we talk here on Tuesday afternoon.
12:15
Speaker 1: It has a potential of getting really fast and really
12:18
Speaker 1: firm for this weekend. I think this is gonna be
12:20
Speaker 1: an awesome event. You know what, the Derby. There's always
12:23
Speaker 1: like Whisper Wednesday, right where the horses have run the course.
12:30
Speaker 1: The jockey, the trainers are starting to talk, the gamblers
12:33
Speaker 1: are starting to talk in the stables about who's performing well,
12:36
Speaker 1: who's got good form. Have you been able to see anything,
12:39
Speaker 1: if you've been able to be on the course, see
12:41
Speaker 1: people playing practice rounds, see people on the driving range, chipping,
12:44
Speaker 1: putting whatever. I have not been out there that much yet.
12:47
Speaker 1: I've heard some some rumors, some talk here and there.
12:50
Speaker 1: Dustin Johnson was spraying it, one of the other writers
12:53
Speaker 1: told me. And I actually had a player who was
12:56
Speaker 1: playing with Dustin Johnson before the PGA Championship last year
12:59
Speaker 1: gonna actice round, texting me and saying, wow, DJ spraying
13:03
Speaker 1: it all over the place. Fade DJ this week, and
13:05
Speaker 1: DJ wound up as the fifty four whole leader and
13:07
Speaker 1: finished in second place that week. And so the moral
13:10
Speaker 1: of the story is there's not a whole lot you
13:12
Speaker 1: can see on a Tuesday or Wednesday that should define
13:15
Speaker 1: what you bet on and what you decide on for
13:18
Speaker 1: Thursday and beyond, because um, things change a lot. And
13:22
Speaker 1: I have spoken with players for years and years about
13:26
Speaker 1: you know, a guy on Tuesday is like, man, I'm
13:28
Speaker 1: just not hitting it well. I'm like, well, that's good
13:29
Speaker 1: because it's Tuesday in the tournament hasn't starting for forty
13:32
Speaker 1: eight more hours, so you're not supposed to be hitting
13:34
Speaker 1: it well. And then I've had guys on Wednesday, Man,
13:36
Speaker 1: I'm striping it. I'm like, oh, that's bad news. Striping
13:39
Speaker 1: on a Wednesday. By the time Sunday comes, you can
13:41
Speaker 1: be striping it to get anymore. So, uh, you know,
13:44
Speaker 1: there's a lot to be said for uh watch out
13:47
Speaker 1: for the guys. I always saying, golf, watch out for
13:49
Speaker 1: the uh injured golfer. Be where the injured golfer. And
13:52
Speaker 1: so there's something you said, for beware the guy who's
13:55
Speaker 1: spraying it on a Tuesday and a Wednesday as well,
13:58
Speaker 1: because the world's best players can fix that within a
14:01
Speaker 1: day or two in some circumstances, and if they do,
14:05
Speaker 1: then things can change in a very very quick amount
14:09
Speaker 1: of time. Jason Man, I'm just so happy to be
14:12
Speaker 1: here talking golf with you and talking masters. If it
14:14
Speaker 1: feels like I just remember last year when it didn't happen,
14:17
Speaker 1: I was just like, I need Augusta. It's like, even
14:20
Speaker 1: though I'm not a dire golf guy, it's one of
14:23
Speaker 1: those that it's just it's like the spring is coming.
14:25
Speaker 1: That's that's like the smell in the air, the whole
14:27
Speaker 1: feeling of Augusta. Jim nance coming in. And now that
14:30
Speaker 1: we're back, I have to ask what everyone's been asking me.
14:33
Speaker 1: Have you seen a squirrel on the grounds of Augusta
14:35
Speaker 1: since you've been there? No? No, no, no, no, they
14:38
Speaker 1: don't have squirrels. There will never be. You will not
14:41
Speaker 1: find a squirrelf. Now that that does not happen. I
14:44
Speaker 1: will say big picture and look, I don't want to
14:47
Speaker 1: read too much into this. I want to you know,
14:49
Speaker 1: make it sound like it's too profound or anything like that.
14:51
Speaker 1: But the world has been in a weird place for
14:54
Speaker 1: over a year now, and the fact that it's April,
14:58
Speaker 1: these aliens are blooming, We're in Augusta, they're playing the Masters.
15:02
Speaker 1: There's not a whole lot that's felt normal in the
15:05
Speaker 1: past year plus. This finally feels like some sense of
15:09
Speaker 1: normalcy as they uh, stay here in Augusta. We may
15:12
Speaker 1: be on the second nine and going downhill in sort
15:16
Speaker 1: of world sociology parlance if we if you will, but
15:19
Speaker 1: I think that normalcy and normal is a good thing
15:22
Speaker 1: right now. And this feels, like I said, it just
15:25
Speaker 1: feels normal this week to be back here, uh in
15:28
Speaker 1: April and talking about the tournament and at the prestige
15:30
Speaker 1: of this tournament. When when you're looking at betting these golfers,
15:33
Speaker 1: does that play a role in it where you're thinking
15:35
Speaker 1: about guys who are inexperience, maybe they don't won't feel
15:37
Speaker 1: as much pressure as guys who've been in the tour longer.
15:40
Speaker 1: They can kind of feel that pressure get on the
15:41
Speaker 1: longer stretch, because you know, you know you when the
15:43
Speaker 1: older you get, you don't make a chance, you don't
15:45
Speaker 1: have to win a Master. So I was wondering, do
15:47
Speaker 1: you a factor any of that kind of thing that
15:48
Speaker 1: it's such a it's the it's the one, it's the
15:50
Speaker 1: green jack, and do you factor it into all the
15:52
Speaker 1: handicapping any of these guys. It's not a huge factor
15:55
Speaker 1: for me. I think what I do is look at
15:56
Speaker 1: guys who have struggled for a long time to win
15:59
Speaker 1: this off tournament. Rory McElroy is a great example. He
16:03
Speaker 1: might be the prime example. He has been in the
16:05
Speaker 1: top five on the odds board at the Masters for
16:08
Speaker 1: the last ten years, and so that's a lot of
16:11
Speaker 1: really good, really consistent golf, a lot of really good
16:14
Speaker 1: finishes here at this event, and yet still searching for
16:18
Speaker 1: that green jacket, which would of course complete his career
16:20
Speaker 1: Grand Slam. He'd become the six player ever to join
16:23
Speaker 1: that exclusive club. And so you look at Rory and say,
16:26
Speaker 1: you know what, there's probably a little more pressure, a
16:28
Speaker 1: little more stress on him every time he comes to
16:31
Speaker 1: Augusta because all of that is weighing on him, all
16:33
Speaker 1: of those close calls, those near misses over the years.
16:36
Speaker 1: On the other side of the spectrum, you look at
16:38
Speaker 1: a guy. There's only six players playing for the first
16:41
Speaker 1: time this year, but a couple of a pretty good
16:43
Speaker 1: Will's Alt Tors is a guy that I like, Carlos
16:45
Speaker 1: Ortiz is not a bad player. And so you look
16:48
Speaker 1: at these guys, you know what they're They're just not
16:49
Speaker 1: gonna show up their first time and seriously contend for
16:53
Speaker 1: this title. They might play well, but they're not gonna
16:55
Speaker 1: seriously contend. You're looking for guys in that sweet spot.
16:58
Speaker 1: Justin Thomas again another a really good example. He's played
17:01
Speaker 1: in this event six times and the seventh thought, or
17:05
Speaker 1: excuse me, he's played five previous times. This is his
17:07
Speaker 1: sixth time, and the six times about sort of that
17:10
Speaker 1: sweet spot where guys really start to figure out this
17:13
Speaker 1: golf course, start to figure out how to score at
17:16
Speaker 1: this golf tournament. And Justin Thomas has improved in each
17:19
Speaker 1: of his five previous results playing in the Masters. And
17:23
Speaker 1: so you look at that and say, you know, he's
17:25
Speaker 1: a guy that's certainly trending in the right direction. Here
17:28
Speaker 1: there are other guys that are trending the right way.
17:30
Speaker 1: And you look for guys that kind of have those
17:32
Speaker 1: patterns to them at this golf course over the years.
17:36
Speaker 1: So I listened to you and uh uh, Justin Ray
17:43
Speaker 1: on the podcast on the Action Network podcast, you had
17:48
Speaker 1: a very interesting premonition where you went to bed. There's
17:53
Speaker 1: four names that I want to talk about, Okay, four
17:56
Speaker 1: specific names. Um, I want to talk about Justin Thomas,
18:00
Speaker 1: what you talked about a little bit. I think there's
18:02
Speaker 1: a deeper dive to do there. I want to talk
18:05
Speaker 1: about Jordan's speeth. I want to talk about John rom
18:10
Speaker 1: and then I want to talk about brooks Kepco. The
18:13
Speaker 1: first thing I want to do is talk about your premonition.
18:18
Speaker 1: You went to bed before you wrote your massive Master's preview,
18:23
Speaker 1: thinking you were locked in on one thing. You woke
18:26
Speaker 1: up in the morning with a different mindset. What happened? Okay,
18:32
Speaker 1: so the whole story is for weeks now, I've been
18:35
Speaker 1: planning to take Jordan's Speed as my favorite outright play
18:39
Speaker 1: here at Augusta. What happened was Jordan's beef went and
18:42
Speaker 1: won the Valero Texas Open on Sunday, and the entire
18:45
Speaker 1: world is on Jordan's Speed and what I found at
18:48
Speaker 1: least in the Gulf space over the years, is that
18:51
Speaker 1: in the non Tiger Woods category, when everybody is taking
18:55
Speaker 1: one guy, you better take somebody else. When they zig,
18:58
Speaker 1: you've got a zag because it just doesn't work out
19:00
Speaker 1: that way. I still love speed this week. There's just
19:03
Speaker 1: a little bit from Sunday's final round that I didn't love.
19:06
Speaker 1: And again, I was listening on the radio. The whole time.
19:08
Speaker 1: I was listening to PGA to a radio and so
19:10
Speaker 1: I wasn't actually watching it because I was driving up
19:12
Speaker 1: to Augusta. But they talked about him fighting that right
19:16
Speaker 1: to left ball flight and eventually just playing a fade
19:19
Speaker 1: the entire day off the tea. Well, Augusta National is
19:22
Speaker 1: a draw golf course. You've got to be able to
19:23
Speaker 1: work the ball right to left. If he cannot figure
19:25
Speaker 1: out in these three practice days how to work the
19:29
Speaker 1: ball right to left off the tea, I think that's
19:30
Speaker 1: gonna be a little trouble for Jordan's speech that said
19:33
Speaker 1: I still really really like him. I don't really see
19:35
Speaker 1: a scenario in which he isn't at least on the
19:38
Speaker 1: leaderboard and in the mix coming into this one. So
19:41
Speaker 1: I was planning to take Jordan's speed. And then I
19:44
Speaker 1: started driving. Jordan's speed started winning, and I started thinking,
19:47
Speaker 1: and like, man, Jordan's gonna win this thing, and everyone's
19:51
Speaker 1: gonna be on Jordans. I can't do it. It just
19:55
Speaker 1: feels like I'm jumping on the bandwagon now. Three weeks ago,
19:57
Speaker 1: it would look like, Wow, you're taking it. Jordan's it's
20:00
Speaker 1: the winning. He hasn't winning years. Why are you taking
20:02
Speaker 1: him now? It's like, oh, yeah, of course you're taking
20:04
Speaker 1: Jordan just one. And so I said, I gotta get
20:06
Speaker 1: off this bandwagon. So I started thinking about Xander Shoffley,
20:10
Speaker 1: who hasn't played well lately, but I really like him
20:12
Speaker 1: in big time events. In fact, as I was driving,
20:14
Speaker 1: I texted Justin Ray and said, talk me out of
20:17
Speaker 1: taking Xander Shoffle is my favorite play this week. And
20:21
Speaker 1: he sent me a whole bunch of stats and he said,
20:23
Speaker 1: I can't do it. I really like him. He's I'm
20:25
Speaker 1: looking for something, and other than he hasn't played great
20:29
Speaker 1: in his last three or four starts, I don't have
20:31
Speaker 1: a reason to talk you off of Xander Shoffley. I said,
20:33
Speaker 1: all right, well, I guess I'm righting Xander Shoffly. I
20:36
Speaker 1: got back to the rental house that night and sat
20:40
Speaker 1: down and started writing. I was writ until to to
20:42
Speaker 1: thirty in the morning and went to bed with Xander
20:44
Speaker 1: Shoffly at number one on my list. I don't know
20:47
Speaker 1: what I dreamed about that night. I'm not sure if
20:49
Speaker 1: it was a dream and nightmare, what was going on.
20:51
Speaker 1: I woke up at seven o'clock in the morning and like,
20:53
Speaker 1: eyes wide awake, go, Nope, it's John Rom. It's not
20:57
Speaker 1: Xander anymore. It's John Rom. Uh. I don't know why.
21:02
Speaker 1: I don't know how. Maybe it's sort of the John
21:04
Speaker 1: rom baby thing got in my mind. Um, if you
21:07
Speaker 1: haven't heard, John Ram's wife was pregnant with their first child.
21:12
Speaker 1: He had said a few weeks ago, if the baby
21:13
Speaker 1: does not come by masters week, I'm out, you know.
21:17
Speaker 1: If if if it looks like the baby's gonna come
21:19
Speaker 1: that week, then I'm just gonna pack up and leave.
21:21
Speaker 1: If she goes into the labor well. They had the
21:23
Speaker 1: baby on Sunday. He was able to be with them
21:25
Speaker 1: for a day or two and then come here to
21:27
Speaker 1: Augusta and should be fine. And in fact, that's the
21:30
Speaker 1: exact same scenario that Danny Willett had five years ago
21:33
Speaker 1: looked like he was gonna miss this event. The boy
21:35
Speaker 1: was born early and he made it and he made history.
21:39
Speaker 1: So I do like those parallels for John Rome this week.
21:42
Speaker 1: And so yeah, I within a four and a half
21:44
Speaker 1: hour spend where I wasn't even awake, my first pick changed.
21:47
Speaker 1: And maybe there's a lesson that for some betters out there.
21:51
Speaker 1: I think you have to remain flexible. You have to
21:53
Speaker 1: remain malleable with your plays, especially in golf. It's this
21:57
Speaker 1: is not a football game where you just look at
21:58
Speaker 1: and say, well, it's either this side or that side.
22:00
Speaker 1: I'm committed to this side, so I'm gonna stick with
22:03
Speaker 1: them and not backtrack on my play in golf where
22:06
Speaker 1: there's eight eight players in the field this week, it's okay.
22:09
Speaker 1: If on Tuesday you really like somebody and then on
22:11
Speaker 1: Wednesday said, you know what, I also might want to
22:14
Speaker 1: back him, and then after the first round, going into
22:16
Speaker 1: the second round, you know what, I'm gonna pick him
22:18
Speaker 1: up live and add him to my card as well.
22:20
Speaker 1: That's okay. And I think we have to remember that
22:22
Speaker 1: just because we like a guy at one point coming
22:25
Speaker 1: into the event, that can't be our only guy. And
22:27
Speaker 1: we don't have to stick with him the entire time.
22:30
Speaker 1: And I saw attitude. I saw a really interesting, interesting
22:34
Speaker 1: statistic that for the Masters, it's been glaring how often
22:39
Speaker 1: it's only guys in the top fifty that win. So,
22:42
Speaker 1: but I'm just looking at value guys. Is that one
22:45
Speaker 1: of the things I should look at? What I shouldn't
22:46
Speaker 1: go above the top fifty guy? Should I just play
22:48
Speaker 1: that that like that that number works out that you
22:50
Speaker 1: have to be in the top fifty to win the Masters.
22:53
Speaker 1: Should I ride that trend? You will absolutely see the
22:56
Speaker 1: top fifty player in the world win this week, especially
22:59
Speaker 1: this tournament where there's just not as many other players
23:01
Speaker 1: outside of the top fifty who are in the mix. Um,
23:04
Speaker 1: I would venture to say you'll probably see a top
23:06
Speaker 1: twenty type player win this golf tournament. I mean, there
23:09
Speaker 1: are a lot of really good players in the world.
23:11
Speaker 1: I love a handful of guys for top ten, top
23:16
Speaker 1: twenty type plays. What we saw last year, and we've
23:19
Speaker 1: seen it over the years. In fact, twenty seven percent
23:23
Speaker 1: of the players who finished in the top ten over
23:26
Speaker 1: the last ten years here at Augusta National had odds
23:29
Speaker 1: of the triple digits or longer coming into the week.
23:34
Speaker 1: For our right odds and so, Um, there's definitely some
23:37
Speaker 1: value there if you're looking at guys just to make
23:40
Speaker 1: it onto the leaderboard just for prop that's like that,
23:42
Speaker 1: if you're looking for a winner, I just wouldn't look
23:45
Speaker 1: that far down the line. I wouldn't look past guys
23:47
Speaker 1: at for the most part, thirty five to one. There's
23:52
Speaker 1: a couple of guys who are experienced, and I just
23:54
Speaker 1: think their numbers are too big right now. Adam Scott
23:57
Speaker 1: has been drifting to about seventy five to one, and
24:00
Speaker 1: I think he's still pretty decent play because that guy
24:03
Speaker 1: can win a golf tournament any given week. Jason Day,
24:05
Speaker 1: who's close to a hundred to one in some books,
24:08
Speaker 1: I think there's some value on Jason Day, who can,
24:11
Speaker 1: again any given week go win a golf tournament. But
24:14
Speaker 1: for the most part, if you just want to sprinkle
24:16
Speaker 1: a bunch of big play outrights that you know, hey,
24:20
Speaker 1: if I win, I'm gonna get rich this week, we'll
24:22
Speaker 1: see what happens, they're just not gonna hit. Save those
24:25
Speaker 1: for the Texas Open, save those for the RBC Heritage
24:28
Speaker 1: next week. Um, save those for the events where those
24:31
Speaker 1: players can indeed go out there and have a chance
24:34
Speaker 1: of winning. It's just it's not gonna happen this week.
24:37
Speaker 1: If you really want to dig deeper and find some
24:39
Speaker 1: guys that you like at bigger prices, just take them
24:41
Speaker 1: for top tens, take them for top twenties. I think
24:43
Speaker 1: that because there's so many um bets out there, because
24:48
Speaker 1: there's so many different books offering so many different things,
24:50
Speaker 1: you can find some pretty good prices if you shop
24:53
Speaker 1: around for guys to uh just fit those problems. So
24:56
Speaker 1: you and Justin talked about you mentioned Jordan's speed, and
24:59
Speaker 1: you guys on the Action Network podcast talked about speech
25:03
Speaker 1: and his success at Valerio this past week. But then
25:07
Speaker 1: heading into augusta one thing that stood out to me,
25:10
Speaker 1: and it's actually germane to the conversation Simon and I
25:13
Speaker 1: had before you jumped on, which was about Sam Donald
25:17
Speaker 1: is only twenty three years old, but he's already been
25:20
Speaker 1: in the league for so long that you have a
25:23
Speaker 1: feeling about, you know him, what his capabilities are. Jordan's
25:28
Speaker 1: beef is similar, where he came on so fast, so strong,
25:32
Speaker 1: so hot, winning majors before anybody really knew who he was,
25:37
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden he's you know, had this
25:39
Speaker 1: drought that has lasted I think you said one thousand,
25:42
Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty three days. It started when he
25:46
Speaker 1: was like twenty three years old and he's only seven.
25:51
Speaker 1: Justin had a stat on the podcast that he has
25:56
Speaker 1: had led more rounds at the Masters than anybody except
26:02
Speaker 1: for the Big Three entire am I accurate? Yeah, that
26:08
Speaker 1: is an amazing That's amazing to me that we're talking
26:10
Speaker 1: about a guy who a lot of people have you
26:11
Speaker 1: said that he had said how old is Jordan's spiff?
26:14
Speaker 1: I think people would have said thirty to thirty five.
26:18
Speaker 1: His Master's career is going to, if he continues on
26:21
Speaker 1: this trajectory, be historic someday. It doesn't mean he's gonna
26:25
Speaker 1: necessarily pass or or tie Jack Nicholas with six career
26:29
Speaker 1: Green jackets, but because he started not just playing it
26:33
Speaker 1: at such an early age, but succeeding at such an
26:35
Speaker 1: early age, Uh, just gonna compile numbers that are going
26:40
Speaker 1: to take a really long time for people to catch
26:42
Speaker 1: up to. I liken it to Sergio Garcia, who, if
26:45
Speaker 1: you didn't know, is forty one years old I believe
26:49
Speaker 1: right now and by far the all time leading points getter.
26:52
Speaker 1: At the Ryder Cup, basically because he started playing the
26:56
Speaker 1: thing when he was nineteen years old and hasn't really
26:58
Speaker 1: stopped the entire time. I think he's missed one of
27:00
Speaker 1: them in that time, so he's just the volume of
27:03
Speaker 1: matches that he's played in has given him more chances
27:06
Speaker 1: to go out there and accumulate points. And Jordan's speek
27:09
Speaker 1: is going to be the same way I mean Tiger was,
27:11
Speaker 1: of course, uh A prime example of that, Sevy was
27:15
Speaker 1: to uh Nicholas of course, I mean the greats of
27:17
Speaker 1: the game. But we put Jordan's speech sort of on
27:20
Speaker 1: the same pedestal as those guys as far as success
27:23
Speaker 1: at a young age at Augusta National and really everything
27:28
Speaker 1: is trending for him in the right direction this week.
27:29
Speaker 1: I mean, UH, guys talk about peaking four times a year,
27:34
Speaker 1: and Tiger has said this for two decades, and I
27:37
Speaker 1: have spent much of those two decades asking some of
27:41
Speaker 1: the game's best players, how do you peak? How do
27:44
Speaker 1: you decide that you want to peak four times a year?
27:46
Speaker 1: And my favorite answer ever was when I asked it
27:48
Speaker 1: Jason Day a couple of years ago, and he looks
27:51
Speaker 1: at me, goes, I don't know, I just say it
27:54
Speaker 1: because it sounds good because Tiger says it. But I
27:57
Speaker 1: have no idea how to get my game to peak.
27:59
Speaker 1: He's like, if I'm playing really well two weeks before
28:01
Speaker 1: the Masters, I don't go whoa, whoa. I better slow
28:04
Speaker 1: down and save some of this. He goes, No, I
28:06
Speaker 1: just keep trying to play well. So there's no real
28:08
Speaker 1: way to make yourself peak four times a year. That said,
28:12
Speaker 1: Jordan's beet is definitely peeking coming into this one, and
28:15
Speaker 1: this is the place where he wants to be peaking
28:17
Speaker 1: because his results tend to trend in a very very
28:20
Speaker 1: good direction. Here speaking of peaking in majors, am I insane? For?
28:25
Speaker 1: Like in Brooks, keptis so much heading into this. I
28:27
Speaker 1: know he's coming off to major knee surgery, but this
28:29
Speaker 1: is the guy we've seen in majors performed, So it's
28:32
Speaker 1: like for people out there, am I being crazy and betting?
28:34
Speaker 1: Chalk here and Brooks so one. I loved his quote
28:38
Speaker 1: from the other day. Some reporters quote up to him
28:41
Speaker 1: on Sunday when he was here in the afternoon and
28:43
Speaker 1: they asked him about, you know, how's your near? You
28:45
Speaker 1: definitely gonna play this week? Because he had knee surgery
28:47
Speaker 1: just three or four weeks ago. I mean, we didn't
28:49
Speaker 1: think he'd be here, and now he's not only here,
28:51
Speaker 1: but he told the reporters, look, if I thought I
28:54
Speaker 1: was just gonna come in second place, I would have
28:55
Speaker 1: just stay at home. I mean, that is a Tiger
28:59
Speaker 1: Woods like quote right there. I love hearing Brooks say that.
29:03
Speaker 1: And Brooks has been tweeting out gifts and uh and
29:06
Speaker 1: and getting his chest puffed out against all these people
29:10
Speaker 1: as saying he can't do it. He no player in
29:13
Speaker 1: golf plays better with a chip on their shoulder than
29:15
Speaker 1: Brooks Kepta. Usually it's unfounded. Usually it's he's got a
29:20
Speaker 1: chip on his shoulder for what because somebody said he
29:25
Speaker 1: might not be the best player in the game. I
29:27
Speaker 1: mean usually it's like, well, why why does he have
29:29
Speaker 1: a chip on his shoulder? And he's really good. Everyone
29:31
Speaker 1: knows he's really good. He wins majors, everyone thinks it's great.
29:35
Speaker 1: You know, there's no reason to have that. And yet, uh,
29:38
Speaker 1: this week, there are some people who are doubting Brooks.
29:40
Speaker 1: They don't think he can come back this quickly from
29:42
Speaker 1: the knee surgery. Uh, they didn't think he'd be playing.
29:45
Speaker 1: They don't think he's gonna succeed. And Brooks has got
29:47
Speaker 1: this big old Bryson sized chip on his shoulder. He's
29:50
Speaker 1: gonna take that to the first team with him, and
29:52
Speaker 1: I don't doubt. I think Simon. The key for Brooks
29:55
Speaker 1: this week has come out and play just an even
29:58
Speaker 1: par round in the first round. Just get out of
30:01
Speaker 1: there and like you know, feel okay and play well
30:04
Speaker 1: and get a sense of competition again. Second round seventies
30:08
Speaker 1: seventy one is fine, one or two under, and he
30:12
Speaker 1: might be in thirtieth place going into the weekend. And
30:15
Speaker 1: if he is, I'm gonna hammer hammerd Brooks alive because
30:19
Speaker 1: he can go sixty eight on the weekend. That puts
30:21
Speaker 1: him at nine or ten under, and from all reports
30:24
Speaker 1: of what the players are saying, nine or ten ender
30:26
Speaker 1: could win this golf tournament. So I don't put it
30:29
Speaker 1: past Brooks to go out there and start to prove
30:32
Speaker 1: people wrong. Whether people are really saying it or not,
30:34
Speaker 1: He's going to prove him wrong if that's in his
30:37
Speaker 1: mind that people are saying he can't do it. I
30:39
Speaker 1: love how Mad Brooks, Kepta and Bryce and Dschambau are
30:47
Speaker 1: no Bryson is not mad, mad scientist, but he's not mad.
30:51
Speaker 1: He swings mad. Did you see him at the range yesterday?
30:55
Speaker 1: It was staring at him like what are you doing?
30:58
Speaker 1: It was like those old Baby Brew movies where it's
31:01
Speaker 1: fed up in black and white. It doesn't even look
31:04
Speaker 1: like he's doing a sort of form focused, mechanical golf swing.
31:11
Speaker 1: It just looks like he's, you know, happy fucking gilmouring
31:16
Speaker 1: out there. Well, he said today it was a good workout.
31:19
Speaker 1: He was in the interview room and he said, you know,
31:21
Speaker 1: I just you know, I want to get a good
31:22
Speaker 1: sweat out there, a good workout. Sure, I don't know. Look,
31:28
Speaker 1: we all know that length is a major advantage in
31:32
Speaker 1: this game. If you can hit it further than everybody else,
31:35
Speaker 1: you are going to have a huge benefit over the
31:38
Speaker 1: rest of the field. I think that works less in
31:42
Speaker 1: Augusta National than most other places. It was a brilliant
31:46
Speaker 1: plan for Wingfoot last year for the US Open. Honestly,
31:49
Speaker 1: it's a brilliant plan for every US Open. Bryson should
31:52
Speaker 1: win five of the next ten U s Opens. That's
31:55
Speaker 1: the golf tournament where his strategy is just gonna work
31:58
Speaker 1: better than everybody else's every everyone's gonn miss the fairways.
32:00
Speaker 1: The fairways are really narrow, and so if everyone misses
32:03
Speaker 1: the fairway, I'd rather have the guy who's hitting a
32:05
Speaker 1: ball from one six in the rough than to ten
32:08
Speaker 1: in the rough. And that's exactly the advantage that Bryson
32:11
Speaker 1: gets from having that length off the tea and Augusta National,
32:15
Speaker 1: it doesn't quite work. This is a second shot golf course. Now,
32:18
Speaker 1: his iron play has been really good this year. Is
32:19
Speaker 1: putting has been really good this year. Traditionally, is putting
32:23
Speaker 1: is not good on this golf course. And so I
32:25
Speaker 1: I don't love Bryson this week, but I think he's
32:28
Speaker 1: a prototypical high floor, high ceiling, low floor guy. This week.
32:33
Speaker 1: I think I can see anything from Bryson winning by
32:36
Speaker 1: five to missing the cut this week. And that's what
32:38
Speaker 1: makes him so intriguing as sort of an X factor.
32:42
Speaker 1: I guess I just feel like I watched him swing,
32:46
Speaker 1: and you know, there are people who play the long
32:49
Speaker 1: game and people who just go balls out right, and
32:52
Speaker 1: I watched him swing, and to me, it encapsulates. Here's
32:55
Speaker 1: a dude who's saying, fuck it, I don't care what
32:58
Speaker 1: this is gonna do to my body. I don't care
33:01
Speaker 1: the what impact it has in the length of my career.
33:05
Speaker 1: I'm going to swing as hard as I can, win
33:07
Speaker 1: as many golf tournaments as I can, and it doesn't
33:10
Speaker 1: matter how long I end up playing. This is how
33:14
Speaker 1: I think I can win the most in the shortest
33:16
Speaker 1: amount of time. That's the biggest criticism of Bryson is
33:19
Speaker 1: that the people, the public, the common man, will sit
33:23
Speaker 1: out there and say he's not gonna be able to
33:25
Speaker 1: do this for twenty more years. On hold on, hold on.
33:29
Speaker 1: I'm not criticizing it. I'm saying I'm not saying you.
33:32
Speaker 1: I'm not saying you. I'm saying just the public. These
33:34
Speaker 1: are the tweeters who will tweet me after I tweet
33:37
Speaker 1: something about bryceon, oh, he's not gonna be able to
33:40
Speaker 1: keep this up forever, to which I know Bryson would say, Actually,
33:44
Speaker 1: I've I've asked Bryson. Bryson says, well, I'm healthier now
33:48
Speaker 1: than I've ever been before, so why can't I keep
33:50
Speaker 1: doing it? Which is a fairly good answer. And my
33:54
Speaker 1: answer to it is any of us in our careers,
33:57
Speaker 1: if you have a chance to strike while the irons
34:00
Speaker 1: are hot, and you have a chance to really build
34:04
Speaker 1: on something in your career, and you know that, Hey,
34:07
Speaker 1: I might not have great longevity, but I might be
34:09
Speaker 1: able to retire at an early age after giving it
34:11
Speaker 1: all I had and making as much money and making
34:14
Speaker 1: the most out of my career in my prime years.
34:17
Speaker 1: Who's going to say no to that? Um? And I
34:20
Speaker 1: love what Bryson has done. I spoke with him for
34:23
Speaker 1: an article last year that we wrote sort of based
34:25
Speaker 1: on our de facto slogan with the Action Network bet
34:29
Speaker 1: on yourself. And I said, Bryson, you know you've really
34:32
Speaker 1: you've bet on yourself here in your game. You're a
34:34
Speaker 1: top ten player in the world. And said, you know what,
34:36
Speaker 1: if I want to become a number one player in
34:37
Speaker 1: the world, I need to change my body. I need
34:40
Speaker 1: to change how I train, I need to change how
34:43
Speaker 1: I swing. I need to change everything about what I'm doing.
34:46
Speaker 1: He did that knowing the risk was involved that he
34:49
Speaker 1: might never be good again. He might just become forty
34:53
Speaker 1: pounds heavier and have a a really fast swing speed
34:58
Speaker 1: and never be able to make a put, never to
35:00
Speaker 1: be able to chip the ball, and may never find
35:02
Speaker 1: any success again. Within a year, within two years, he
35:05
Speaker 1: was a US Open champion, he was a top five
35:07
Speaker 1: player in the world, so his bet has paid off
35:10
Speaker 1: in dividends so far. Now, I know that the Augusta
35:14
Speaker 1: it's kind of not a crap shoot, but like you
35:17
Speaker 1: just said, there's always guys you can take long shot
35:19
Speaker 1: odds to finish in the top ten. Are there any
35:21
Speaker 1: guys that you really focused on that you're You're like, Okay,
35:23
Speaker 1: I can see scenario this guy playing into Sunday and
35:26
Speaker 1: having a chance to finish in the top ten that
35:27
Speaker 1: are like really good odds before the tournament starts. This
35:31
Speaker 1: isn't much of a long shot. He's played really well
35:34
Speaker 1: this year. He's got three top five finishes in his
35:36
Speaker 1: last six starts, and he's played well in Augusta in
35:39
Speaker 1: the past as well. I think he's got four top
35:40
Speaker 1: tens and h three finishes of sixth. They're better. But
35:43
Speaker 1: I love Paul Casey this week just everything is trending
35:47
Speaker 1: in the right direction. He's not a big number. I
35:49
Speaker 1: think you find thirty five to one in most books
35:52
Speaker 1: right around that price, and so, uh, you know, I'm
35:55
Speaker 1: not taking a name that's way out of nowhere that
35:57
Speaker 1: no one's gonna be talking about. But I just think
36:00
Speaker 1: his game is suited for this golf course. He hits
36:02
Speaker 1: the ball with his irons maybe higher than just about
36:05
Speaker 1: anybody else. So does John rob who's actually my favorite
36:08
Speaker 1: pick out there. But high ball hitters are going to
36:10
Speaker 1: have a huge advantage on a fast, firm golf course
36:13
Speaker 1: where if you hit it low, there's no telling where
36:16
Speaker 1: the ball is gonna wind up. You hit it high,
36:18
Speaker 1: you can control the trajectory, you can control where the
36:21
Speaker 1: ball is going to land, and I think that's going
36:23
Speaker 1: to be a major factor this week. So I like
36:25
Speaker 1: the high ball hitters more so than those low ball hitters. Alright,
36:30
Speaker 1: So here's the list I got. I want to wrap
36:32
Speaker 1: this up for people so they can be thinking about
36:36
Speaker 1: how they want to bet, because at the top, I
36:40
Speaker 1: would say you're top four, John Ron Jordan's speed, Xander Shoffley,
36:48
Speaker 1: justin Thomas, Paul Casey might sneak in there well, Paul Calexible.
36:53
Speaker 1: Paul Casey to me was gonna be okay. If you're
36:56
Speaker 1: looking for a little more value, then you want to
36:59
Speaker 1: go with Paul Casey. Uh And then to me, I
37:04
Speaker 1: also I am on brooks Kepka. I like that one
37:08
Speaker 1: a lot, just because I like his attitude. I like
37:11
Speaker 1: the idea of him going back to Augusta, coming off
37:13
Speaker 1: of nurse sergery knee surgery three days later and just saying,
37:16
Speaker 1: fuck you, I'm still the best major player in the world,
37:20
Speaker 1: and this is what I can do. And look, if
37:22
Speaker 1: you can get brooks Kepka at anywhere from twenty to one,
37:26
Speaker 1: then he's worth a taste. That's what I think. I'm
37:29
Speaker 1: working on my ranking of the entire field right now.
37:32
Speaker 1: Usually have it out by Monday, but I'm doing a
37:35
Speaker 1: lot of things. I'm doing a lot of work out here.
37:36
Speaker 1: So what traffic is flying off the shelves this week?
37:40
Speaker 1: If you come to hold back a little bit, you kids,
37:42
Speaker 1: give him everything on Monday morning and let him go
37:44
Speaker 1: through the whole site exactly. It's it's back a little
37:47
Speaker 1: overwhelming in any case. Still working on it, but I
37:50
Speaker 1: should be done soon. Should be posted by Tuesday evening
37:54
Speaker 1: if my editor gets to it. And I've got brooks
37:56
Speaker 1: Kepka and I believe eleventh on my list, so that's uh,
38:00
Speaker 1: that's fright in the mix. You know, certainly I can
38:02
Speaker 1: see him finishing higher than that. By the way, I'll
38:04
Speaker 1: give you a few names if you really want to go.
38:05
Speaker 1: You guys keep asking about long shots, and I really
38:07
Speaker 1: really haven't giving you long shot long shots to give
38:09
Speaker 1: you a Paul Casey, which is a sort of mid
38:12
Speaker 1: upper tier guy anyway. Uh, A few guys that I
38:15
Speaker 1: really like, Corey Connors, who's about eighty two one right now,
38:19
Speaker 1: Jason coke Rack who's played great lately, three straight top
38:22
Speaker 1: tens in his last three stroke play events. Will's Alatoris,
38:26
Speaker 1: who's playing here for the first time. I have not
38:28
Speaker 1: seen a number for this, but if you can find
38:31
Speaker 1: a number anything plus money for Will's Altorius to be
38:34
Speaker 1: the low Master's debutants, I always think it's weird when
38:38
Speaker 1: they call him debutant, as if they're going to the
38:41
Speaker 1: the ball on Friday night, But in any case, they
38:45
Speaker 1: call master's debutant. So if you can find Will's Alaturus
38:48
Speaker 1: as Low Masters debutant at like a plus one twenty
38:51
Speaker 1: two plus one fifty hammer that I really like that one.
38:54
Speaker 1: So there there's some guys out there that you can
38:57
Speaker 1: find some value on. I don't think any of those
38:59
Speaker 1: three guys are gonna win in but can they finish
39:01
Speaker 1: top five, top ten? Just based on what we saw
39:04
Speaker 1: last year we saw Cameron Smith, Song j M, and
39:07
Speaker 1: Dylan for Telly all in top five. They were all
39:09
Speaker 1: triple digit odds going into the event. Ct PAN finish
39:12
Speaker 1: in the Sheriff's seventh place. He was a thousand to one.
39:15
Speaker 1: I mean, if you had just, uh, just a top
39:17
Speaker 1: ten play on ct PAN at last year's Masters, would
39:20
Speaker 1: have covered every other bet you made. And that's why
39:23
Speaker 1: I was asking, because like, that's what I love about golf,
39:25
Speaker 1: Like you just said, in football, like you just get
39:28
Speaker 1: up Paul Case, You're like, yeah, it's only three thousand,
39:30
Speaker 1: five hundred. Me and Chad, like the odds of us
39:33
Speaker 1: said in any bed in the football season, that's plus
39:34
Speaker 1: three thousand, five hundreds, maybe one every couple of years.
39:37
Speaker 1: So that was definitely when you said that, just like,
39:39
Speaker 1: this is what I love golf. Man. I hit one
39:41
Speaker 1: golf bet and maybe if I said bet like twelve
39:44
Speaker 1: to thirteen tournaments, I'm like you just said, I'm pretty
39:47
Speaker 1: much good as long as I've been a hundred each
39:48
Speaker 1: time good for the season. So that's what I love doing. Man.
39:51
Speaker 1: I'll probably like five to a thousand dollars. We'll do
39:54
Speaker 1: a hundred and each guy and a couple of top ten,
39:56
Speaker 1: couple of top top five finishes, and I'll do two
39:58
Speaker 1: or three to win it all. And the golden age
40:01
Speaker 1: of Tiger Man that was like his was always weren't great,
40:04
Speaker 1: but it was one of those where it's like, man,
40:06
Speaker 1: if I just keep investing in Tiger, I'm gonna get
40:08
Speaker 1: the return. And we're all hoping that with speech. We're
40:11
Speaker 1: waiting for the next guy. Maybe it's Brooks and or
40:14
Speaker 1: whoever's gonna come along, the next guy. But it definitely
40:17
Speaker 1: feels like in this term, like you just said, it
40:19
Speaker 1: does feel wide open. Like you just said, you gave
40:21
Speaker 1: him a bunch of guys. That feels like there is
40:23
Speaker 1: no just one guy that really has the huge advantage
40:26
Speaker 1: going in. So I'm just really excited about betting these
40:28
Speaker 1: long shots because I do feel like there is opportunity
40:30
Speaker 1: this one. I feel like, and granted I was really
40:33
Speaker 1: not betting on golf. I was trying to wear my
40:36
Speaker 1: journalist hat in the Tiger era when he was really
40:39
Speaker 1: in his prime. But um, I feel like betting on
40:42
Speaker 1: the game is way more interesting now than it would
40:45
Speaker 1: have been fifteen years ago because Tiger was dominating there.
40:49
Speaker 1: I went through the archives at one point, Um, I
40:51
Speaker 1: think it was before bay Hill last year, and looked
40:54
Speaker 1: at Tiger's shortest odds in the tournament, I believe he
40:58
Speaker 1: was he was either even money or like a plus
41:02
Speaker 1: one ten to beat the entire field, like to win
41:04
Speaker 1: outright at an event. It was maybe like one of
41:07
Speaker 1: the events like two thousand three at bay Hill or
41:09
Speaker 1: something like that, where he had won their six times
41:12
Speaker 1: already and it was coming in on a heat or
41:14
Speaker 1: and it was like, how can you better? And then
41:16
Speaker 1: you look at a football game you say, well, uh,
41:18
Speaker 1: you know, plus one ten, okay, I'll take them on
41:20
Speaker 1: the money line, and that that sort of makes sense, um,
41:23
Speaker 1: And so I it's funny, Simon. I try to keep
41:26
Speaker 1: that in mind when I look at a guy like
41:28
Speaker 1: Paul Casey, it's like, wow, he's only plus three thousand,
41:30
Speaker 1: plus thirty five dred. I don't know. I kind of
41:32
Speaker 1: want a bigger number that can have her. And then
41:34
Speaker 1: you think about every other sport and you're like, I'm
41:37
Speaker 1: never getting a number like that anywhere else. So, uh, yeah,
41:40
Speaker 1: there is some value in taking those numbers, alright, fellas.
41:43
Speaker 1: So well, you gotta get back to work, Simon. We
41:45
Speaker 1: gotta go make our bets because now we can do
41:48
Speaker 1: like we did with NFL Futures and just bet the
41:51
Speaker 1: entire field for the masters. We might have one more
41:54
Speaker 1: for you. I'm about to go do a one on
41:56
Speaker 1: one with Phil Mickelson as part of my radio duties.
41:58
Speaker 1: I just talked to Justin Thomas before we started this spot. Uh.
42:02
Speaker 1: After speaking with him, I moved him up from four
42:03
Speaker 1: to three. I believe for now in my rankings. That's
42:07
Speaker 1: gonna talk to Phil Mickelson and I'll find out where
42:09
Speaker 1: I should put him. All right, Well, listen, there's nothing,
42:11
Speaker 1: there's never anything wrong with putting you know, a ten
42:15
Speaker 1: spot on Phil Mickelson, if only because it would be
42:18
Speaker 1: worth the karma investment to see him win and what
42:21
Speaker 1: the interviews and the celebration around Phil Nicholson would be
42:25
Speaker 1: because there's no better friend to gamblers in all of
42:28
Speaker 1: sports than Phil Nicholson. Phil would put ten on you,
42:31
Speaker 1: So you should put that on Phil, exactly. That's exactly right,
42:35
Speaker 1: all right. This has been the favorite podcast from the
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43:13
Speaker 1: produced Thursday Thunderdome. Until next time, I Love you,