Latest / Best of Business / Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on the new stats revealing how many Kiwis left the country

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Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on the new stats revealing how many Kiwis left the country · Best of Business

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  Speaker 2: Now the Brain, the great brain drain that we keep
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  Speaker 2: harping on about migrant departures have reached a new record
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  Speaker 2: just five one hundred and twenty three thousand. This is
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  Speaker 2: for the year to January new numbers out. That's up
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  Speaker 2: eighteen percent. But there is some sense that we might
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  Speaker 2: have hit peak brain drain, which is good. Liam dan
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  Speaker 2: is the Herald's business editor at largest with me now,
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  Speaker 2: highly am Gooday, Ryan, So what are we seeing in
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  Speaker 2: these numbers?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a lot of numbers there, and you can
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  Speaker 3: sort of pick and cheers a bit because the annual
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  Speaker 3: stats are going to keep looking pretty rough for a
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  Speaker 3: while because they're catching the peak of the brain drain
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  Speaker 3: last year. But what we can see is that if
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  Speaker 3: you look at I guess what we're talking about here
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  Speaker 3: is Kiwi citizens leaving long term, right, and so the
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  Speaker 3: Kiwi departures have sort of plateau. They're in the year
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  Speaker 3: to January twenty twenty five, they were forty four thousand,
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  Speaker 3: seven hundred, and that compares to sorry, sorry, forty four thousand,
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  Speaker 3: two hundred compared to forty four thousand, seven hundred for
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  Speaker 3: the year to January twenty twenty four. And then sort
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  Speaker 3: of what you can see is that in the year
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  Speaker 3: to August twenty twenty four was when they peaked, we
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  Speaker 3: had forty seven thousand, So nearly fifty thousand people left
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  Speaker 3: in that year to August, and so they're drifting back.
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  Speaker 3: Forty four thousand kiwis leaving is still a heck of
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  Speaker 3: a lot, you know. So there's no sense that we're
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  Speaker 3: saying that the brain drain is over or cured. But
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  Speaker 3: the peak is an important thing to get beyond because
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  Speaker 3: it possibly suggests that the trend has started moving in
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  Speaker 3: the right direction and that there's you know, perhaps less
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  Speaker 3: push for Kiwis to get out there, and so you know,
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  Speaker 3: hopefully that's part of the recovery story, right.
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  Speaker 2: Well hopefully. I was going to ask, does that mean
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  Speaker 2: that it's a sign that kiwis are saying where our
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  Speaker 2: prospects are looking better here? Or is it just that
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  Speaker 2: we've run out of mobile brains to actually, you know,
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  Speaker 2: up and leave.
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  Speaker 3: Look, it's possible. Look, we don't the stats don't dig
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  Speaker 3: down into who exactly is leaving. We get a little
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  Speaker 3: bit of age based stuff, but that takes a while
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  Speaker 3: to come through. Yeah, it's and overall net migration is
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  Speaker 3: still still positive. So we're still gaining thirty two thousand,
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  Speaker 3: five hundred people I think in the year to January,
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  Speaker 3: but that's down from one hundred and something something like
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  Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty two one hundred and fifty five
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  Speaker 3: thousand or something. You know, we had this enormous peak,
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  Speaker 3: and so just having that net migration gain of thirty
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  Speaker 3: two thousand is enough to sort of create a bit
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  Speaker 3: of a head when the economy is used to having
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  Speaker 3: a lot more people coming in. And I'm hearing economists
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  Speaker 3: talk about how that's one of the reasons that the
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  Speaker 3: housing market's just not picking up as fast as you
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  Speaker 3: might have expect with interest rates coming off. That we're
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  Speaker 3: sort of built in the last year or two for
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  Speaker 3: this high level of incoming migration or lower levels of
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  Speaker 3: people leaving, and you know, we're sort of feeling that now.
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  Speaker 3: But yeah, as I say, the trend possibly starting to turn,
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  Speaker 3: and let's hope, you know, if they can, if we
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  Speaker 3: can see the economy continue to improve, it usually is
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  Speaker 3: fairly related to the economy.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and because I noticed that IMF report yesterday they
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  Speaker 2: said that it would be, you know, our recovery this
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  Speaker 2: year would be in part lead by migration. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: are they taking into account the fact that, you know,
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  Speaker 2: net migration is relatively low compared to where we normally
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  Speaker 2: have it. Presumably they are, Yeah, I mean I.
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  Speaker 3: Think they're talking. I mean, in the end, it's going
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  Speaker 3: to you know, you change a few settings at some
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  Speaker 3: point that the lower level of net migration will start
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  Speaker 3: to cause labor shortages, and then inevitably a government tries
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  Speaker 3: to open things up again. We're really all sitting there
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  Speaker 3: waiting for the labor market to to work through the
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  Speaker 3: worst of its unemployment and get some jobs creating again.
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  Speaker 3: So that's not looking like it's happening till the second
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  Speaker 3: half of the year. But when that starts to happen,
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  Speaker 3: you'd expect to see migration pick up as well, a
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  Speaker 3: fewer people leaving because of his job. So so much
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  Speaker 3: of it's tied to jobs, and as we've talked about before,
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  Speaker 3: it's just taking it takes a bit longer. Once the
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  Speaker 3: first sort of economic stats start looking a bit better,
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  Speaker 3: it still takes a while for the labor market to
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  Speaker 3: turn around.
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  Speaker 2: Yep, nice one, Liam, Thank you for that great information.
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  Speaker 2: Liam dan as always ended hero Old Business editor at Large.
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