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Inside The Data: Can The Eagles Get Takeaways From A Turnover-Happy Rams Offense? · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Hello, everyone.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: Welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: I'm Jeff Mosher, of course, with the data man, Sam Finkel.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: And this is part two of our two-part podcast that
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: we do every week. This one previews the next game.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: We've already recapped Eagles versus Bears from an analytics standpoint.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: If you haven't checked it out, make sure you do.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: A lot of interesting stuff.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: And now we're going to preview, Sam, what a lot
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: of people thought going into the year would be maybe.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: A playoff preview, potentially an NFC preview.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Championship preview between the Eagles and Rams, and yet both
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: teams not off to the best of starts.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: The Rams are 1-2.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: The Eagles are 2-1, but coming off a 20-point blowout loss.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Kind of an interesting crossroads for these teams right now.
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: I think so, too. And this is a case of
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: don't be fooled by the records.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: For sure.
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: Particularly for the Rams.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, one of the things that we might get into,
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: I didn't realize this because, you know, you might think
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: they're not performing to standard because they're 1-2. but they've
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: had close to 500 yards of total offense in each
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: of their last two games. So there's some things going
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: wrong there, but they're not struggling offensively the way the
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Eagles are.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah. We'll definitely have some stuff to talk about for sure.
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: Cool.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I like that. You're getting the tease going on already.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: You're a pro at this. Let's bring up the charts.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: As we always do in these previews, we start for our,
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: you know, and again, we'll explain everything for our listening
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: audience and for our YouTube audience, they can see the
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: chart here.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: I love what you've done here. This is something I
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: want to continue to do. I think it's great.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: It's the Monte Carlo simulation model that you had introduced
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: before the season, how it applies to the current matchup
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: compared to what it looked like from preseason of week
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: one to week two and on.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: So what does this tell us?
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: I mean, I love that you told me to rerun
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: this model each week. I think it definitely adds a
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: lot of excitement. I think it's fun to do.
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah. But the first model had the Eagles favored.
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: They won 505 out of the 1,000 simulations.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: That was before any game was ever played, right?
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: That's the preseason model?
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: Correct.
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: And then following week one, it didn't change. But following
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: week two, it did. The Eagles and Rams performance relative
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: both changed that to a 44.9%. Chances are they were
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: only 449 at the 2000 simulations. Surprisingly, it didn't change
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: that much from, you know, week three to week four,
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: or I guess after the week three performance.
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: It only went down to 438, so a 43.8% chance, so.
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: So two blowouts, one for each team, blew out losses,
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: did not change the model that much because going into
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: week one, right, it was a 50.5% chance. So the
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: Eagles were favored to win this game by the slimmest
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: of margins going into the season.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Then week one happens.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: The Rams get completely torn apart by the 49ers in Australia, right?
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: The Eagles kind of eke out. I don't want to
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: say eke out.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, I thought they were going to win that
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: Commanders game, but they had a close win against Commanders.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: And it didn't change.
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: It did not change.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: But then after week one, I'm sorry, after week two, right,
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: it changes so that it favors the Eagles a little
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: bit less after their tight win against the Titans.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: And then I believe the Rams destroyed the Giants that week, right?
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: So now the Rams are in the head.
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: And then after this last bout of games, the Eagles
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: fall a little bit from their blowout.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: But only a little bit like that.
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: You would think it'd be more significant.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. 45% to 44% is not a huge difference.
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: But if you remember the model, one of the biases
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: of the model that we kind of in like we established.
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: Early on is home field advantage is very much favored.
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: So as like a base level, the Eagles had a
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: pretty good, you know, advantage kind of built in.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: Favored that home field.
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I do think the relative performances are actually
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: represented pretty well.
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: In this model.
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: I don't feel as good as 43.8% based on last
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: week's performance. But the way the Rams played last week,
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: we're going to get into it. There are ways to
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: win this game. There are clear ways to win this game.
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: They are a beatable opponent.
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: But it just depends on which Eagles team shows up.
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: That's kind of where we're at.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I think that's fair.
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: I definitely think it's a winnable game for the Eagles,
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: who always seem to beat the Rams, although you can't
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: count on that every year. But the Eagles also have
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: some pretty good response to losses throughout their tenure under
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: So I think it'll be a really good game.
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: I just want to clear this up with you. I
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: don't believe the Monte Carlo simulation– factors in the data of,
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, there are probably some, if you advanced it,
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: it probably could, but this one in particular does not
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: factor in that data about the West coast team traveling
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: to the East coast.
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: Okay. Yeah.
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: Now I, we could have, we could do a whole
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: show on that because I've studied it quite a bit,
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: you know, and 10 years ago, it was almost a
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: given that the East coast team would win that game
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: by a 65 to 70% clip.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: It didn't even matter what the matchup was.
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: And then gradually, I think with the advent of sports
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: science and different traveling techniques that started to change. And
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: I remember, I think Russell Wilson's last year with the
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: Seahawks or the year before that, they had like three
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: or four trips to the East coast for one o'clock
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: and they wound up winning like three of the four
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: games because they were good. You know, they were a
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: good team and they were playing bad teams, but it
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: just seemed that, that, That trend is old school now.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: It doesn't happen.
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: Although, maybe it's coming back around because the Seahawks lost
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: to the Commanders last week in the one o'clock game.
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: And then last year, if I'm not mistaken, the Raiders
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: beat the Patriots in week one in New England.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Crazy, right?
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: The Patriots went to the Super Bowl. The Raiders are
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: in the top five, but somehow that happened. So maybe
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: it is, you know, so I don't know what to
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: make of it. I don't think it's as big of
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: an issue anymore for the West Coast teams flying to
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: the East Coast at one o'clock.
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: And I think it's really interesting you bring that up.
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: And I think next year, we can make you make
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: a more advanced version of this model.
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: And we can factor in so many different things. Sure.
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: Love it.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: All right, cool.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: Maybe in the offseason, we'll even do a look back
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: at this year on West Coast teams traveling to the
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: East Coast.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: For one o'clock.
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: So, yeah, let's do it.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: All right. I like it. Let me write that down.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Make sure I remember that. All right.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: Man, what an interesting chart right here. A score by
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: quarter chart for the Rams who had a 16 nothing
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: lead in the halftime and then somehow figured out a
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: way to lose that game.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Did you watch the game?
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: I did not watch the entire game. I've watched tape
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: of it since, but I did not watch it as
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: it was happening.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: So I never blame refs, but the call and I
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: think Pat Bryant, the Broncos receiver, has come out and
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: even admitted this, but there was a defensive pass interference
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: call against him. on Denver's go ahead drive. That was
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: absolutely the most ridiculous.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: It was an offensive.
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: He was grabbing and then he flopped as he was
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: grabbing the defender. He himself flopped because he, he sensed
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: the contact anyway, and they got a DPI that put
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: them deep in that put the Broncos deep in Rams territory.
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: And then they got an illegal hands to the face
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: call and then a very short touchdown to go ahead.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, listen, You should never let the refs even
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: make it that close, so that's the Rams' fault, but it.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Was really egregious.
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's brutal for the Rams.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: What was the highest point of percentage for victory in
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: favor of the Rams in this game?
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: 84%, and they maintained it for a while, actually. They
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: were up three in the fourth quarter, but they maintained
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: it from 703 to 543. You can kind of see
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: where it plateaus.
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: Like on the chart a little bit. And then Stafford
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: threw a pick six with five Oh one left in
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: the game.
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: Yep.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: And you could see right there where it's plateaued, but
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: then there's a steep drop, then a big wagon and
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: then a big steep drop again.
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: So that's, that's kind of, it's an interesting data point,
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: but you're going to see why their, their EPA, these
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: mistakes reflect pretty heavily in the EPA that they have a, a,
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: decent amount of turnovers that have affected their games. So
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: I think that's something that's going to be worth talking
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: about when we get there.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I can only imagine.
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about it when you get there. All right.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about at first, uh, just like looking at
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: these teams at a glance, um, Rams at 20 points
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: per game is probably a little under what people would
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: have thought. You know, I don't think people would expect
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: that they would have a negative point differential with all
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: the upgrades on defense they've had this year.
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: Um, But also, that negative point differential is a little
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: bit factored in because they got blown out the first game.
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: Just as the Eagles got blown out last game, which
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: affects their point differential, especially because the Eagles had two
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: close games.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: What do you think, knowing me and me knowing you, right,
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: what is of these six categories that you have here,
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: what do you think really jumps out that, you're like, wow,
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: I would have never thought that?
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: When you were queuing me up for it, I thought
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: it was going to be the penalties just because we've
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: had that discussion.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but remember, I've suspected that the Eagles would commit.
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: Is it the average margin of victory? Nope. The record
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: in close games.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: It's the turnover differential. I mean, these teams are loaded
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: on defense. Now, I get it.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: Myles Garrett is out for the Rams, so that changes
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: a little bit. But just going into the year, if
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: you would have told me after three weeks that this
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: team would be combined minus eight turnover differential and among
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: the bottom of the league, both of them, with all
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: they have on defense, I would have been shocked.
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, that's a good point. I think part
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: of it is.
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: well, the Eagles have not really generated turnovers, but with,
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: with the Rams, I just, I think they're committing a
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: lot of turnovers. And I think that's one of the
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: biggest weaknesses of the team. I think the Eagles have,
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: if the, the way the Eagles win this game is
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: with turnovers and turning their pressures into sacks, like that
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: needs to happen. Both of those things need to happen.
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: And to me, it's really on the defense. You know,
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: The way they win this game is through their defense.
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: That's the only way that I really see it being feasible.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: For sure. For sure. Yeah, you're right.
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: The Eagles being minus five is more that they haven't
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: created their own takeaways because it's not like they have
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: a ton of giveaways. But for a team that's pretty careful,
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: has always been careful with the ball, they do have more.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: Let's say they had, what, three turnovers against the Rams, right?
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: They had two.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: Against the Titans. So you're talking about five in the
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: last two games. That is on Eagles-like.
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, they had the two-interception game, one with Hurts,
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: one with Dalton, and then the fumble.
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Just not really.
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: The one thing we've always said about the Eagles is
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: even if their offense is not scoring a lot of points,
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: they help themselves by not turning the ball over, but
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: that hasn't been the case so far.
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: Correct.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: All right. What's the bottom chart?
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: Is this an EPA stat or just something else?
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: These are all courtesy of NFL Pro.
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: They do a little matchup where they go through some
• 12:19
  Speaker 4: of the areas that they think that both teams have
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: advantages or disadvantages. This week, it actually lined up perfectly.
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: It looked at overall passing efficiency, overall rushing efficiency, and
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: pressure rate. And the efficiency is, I believe, an EPA-based statistic.
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: As you just mentioned.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: So you look at the overall passing efficiency, the Eagles
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: offense is 26th in the league.
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: The Rams defense is fifth in the league.
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: Yikes.
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: So that's a struggling area of the Eagles going up
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: against a thriving area of the Rams.
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: But if you look at overall rushing efficiency, and again,
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: this factors in quarterback scrambles, it's the only reason they'd
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: be 10th, the 10th unit in the league.
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: But the Rams are 18th.
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: So, I mean, there is room for the Eagles to
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: run the ball, assuming that the offensive line can. Assuming
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: that they have the first half offensive line performance and
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: not the second half in the Bears game. Yeah. And
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: then you look at the pressure rate. Eagles are the 21st,
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: and the Rams, unsurprisingly.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Are among the top.
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: They're at fourth.
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: Right. I mean, when the Rams are top five in
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: offensive passing efficiency and top four.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: In pressure rate. I mean, their defense is seemingly playing
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: better than their record would suggest.
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah. And let's flip it. Let's look at the Rams
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: offense and the Eagles defense. Right.
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: The Rams offense is 16th. It's a mid unit in
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: overall passing efficiency. And a lot of that is because
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: of the turnovers. I mean, again, EPA is such a
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: volatile metric in terms of turnovers and big plays. And
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: I mean, Stafford has thrown some interceptions that have really.
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: Cost his team points.
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: And there's been fumbles by the running backs that have
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: cost the team points.
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: And the Eagles are 24th in overall passing efficiency, which
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: is not great.
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: So that, I mean, that'll be a point where the
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: Rams will try to really try to advance. But the Rams, unsurprisingly,
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: are top 10 unit in rushing efficiency. It's not surprising
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: at all. They're ninth and the Eagles are 20th. in
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: it despite what we talk about about their run defense
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: being better than it's been past couple like it's been
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: an okay run defense at the same time they're allowing
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: efficient runs so yes um and then the pressure rate
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: rams offense is 14th and the eagles are ninth so
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: that could be an area again eagles are good at
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: generating pressure there's not good at generating sacks this year.
• 14:46
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• 14:49
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  Speaker 2: made for Philly fans 21 and up. Alright, let's move
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: on to some advanced stats here. Eagles versus Rams where
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: we get into a real Real heavy stuff. Let's talk
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: about the Eagles' offense versus Rams' defense, Sam.
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, again, the EPA and the DVOA are
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: saying somewhat similar things, right? It's saying that the Eagles'
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: EPA play and their DVOA, they're average to below average
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: in terms of both consistently putting their team in a
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: position to score and also gaining yards to in similar
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: situations to other teams, like they are not anything special.
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: They have not done anything special this year. They've been
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: average to below average.
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: And then when you break it down from a pass standpoint,
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: I mean, they've been significantly below average in both metrics.
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: When you look at the rush statistics, again, the EPA
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: for rush really does factor in the scrambling.
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: They've been a top 10 unit, their ninth. But when
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: you use the more.
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: You know, contextual statistic of DVOA, they're, they're closer to average,
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: which is unsurprising as 17th.
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: Right. I am.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: I'm fascinated by the disagreement between EPA and DVOA of
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: the Rams defense.
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: Yes, that, that is an interesting point. Their defense, their
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: EPA is incredible. I mean, you look at it that they're,
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: The ninth in EPA per play with minus 0.12. Their
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: EPA per pass is tied for third, minus 0.21. And
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: their rush is not as great as minus 0.01. And
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: then you look at their DVOA, I mean, they're minus 15.6%,
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: which is the fourth best, which is that statistic is
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: way more significant than the EPA. I mean, them being
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: a fourth unit, also in passing, minus 13.6, and then
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: minus 18.1% in rushing, which is ninth. DVOA is a
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: little bit telling a more complete story that this is
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: a top five defensive.
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: Unit Yeah, absolutely.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with that.
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: But they've let up plays.
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: I mean, that is why the EPA is a little
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: bit telling a different story.
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: The EPA is more sensitive to bigger plays.
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: But if you look at a consistency basis, DVOA is
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: really good at consistency.
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: They're consistently a top five unit across the board.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: Very good. Okay, let's flip the sides here.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: Do EPA and DVOA agree or disagree on the Eagles'
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: defense for the most part?
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, this is the part where it's the
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: most interesting because the Eagles have a little bit more
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: of a chance, I think, on this side. I think
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: the Rams' defense is going to give the Eagles' offense
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: some trouble. I think that is a given. But I
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: think the Eagles defense may have a chance to, I mean,
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: not by these.
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: Numbers, right?
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: I mean, these numbers indicate that the Eagles defense is
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: an average to below average unit and honestly more below
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: average by pretty much every metric, right? I mean, the
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: EPA has them tied for 23rd and the DVOA has
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: them tied, or not tied, but 20th in the league.
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: And you look at the passing, they're both 24th in
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: EPA per pass and passing DVOA. And then EPA per rush,
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: they're tied 20th. And rushing DVOA, they're 14th in the league.
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: So you look at it, and they're pretty much an
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: average maybe to rush defense, but a below average pass
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: in total defense. When you look at the Rams, I mean, again,
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: EPA is very sensitive to turnovers, sacks, those kind of plays.
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: The Rams have a negative.
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: Epa they're they're minus 0.02 um so they're.
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: 15 and then look at the dvo dvoa.
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: They're 11.4 because that is less sensitive the turnovers and
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: it's more about consistency and whether you can continue to
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: create these positive plays for your team against right with
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: all the other variables that we've discussed in the past
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: they're a top 10 unit in that regard.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah so the dva is way more favorable to the
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: rams than the epa is Yes.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: On both offense and defense.
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: And a lot of that, particularly on the offensive side
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: of the ball, is because they have put the ball
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: in harm's way.
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: At the end of the day, that's what it is.
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: And that is a point where the Eagles, if they
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: can get them to put the ball in harm's way
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: and capitalize on it, that is their win case.
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: That is their win case. I don't see them winning
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: this game unless they do that.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: Why do you think the Eagles have a far better
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: rushing DVO way than EPA rushing EPA, EPA on defense?
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: So that would be sensitive to any long runs that
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: were created.
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: And I'm trying to EPA would.
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: I'm just trying to think.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: I don't recall a ton of law. There was the
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: one run that Spears had, I think for 26 yards, 26.
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: Yards on the third or 22. Yeah. Yeah.
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: Did they score on that drive, though? They did.
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: They did. Okay.
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: But the thing is, even with that, that third and 22,
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: the 26-yard run, is going to increase the EPA significantly.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: For sure.
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: Even if they didn't score. Even if they didn't score,
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: it would exponentially increase it.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, assuming the Rams probably got the ball at
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: the 25-30. I mean, you get a 26-yard run. You've
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: already covered– half the distance you need to get to
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: the end zone.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: So I'm one play.
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: And so that's where that– the DVOA, again, is a
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: better analysis. But it's, again, because it's only normalized the
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: DVOA for the total DVOAs. So it's more appropriate to
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: look at the team rank, which is 14.
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: And I would also go back to week one, right,
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: where Jaden Daniels had a bunch of runs that would
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: count their scrambles that count in EPA but don't in
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: rushing DVOA, correct?
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: So when you're talking about the Eagles, as they prepare
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: to stop running backs in a rushing offense, they're better
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: than the EPA would suggest.
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: Correct.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: That's big. The Rams are going to run the ball.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: We know that. Very interesting.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: So, all right, that is a good data analytical breakdown
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: of these two teams.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: What does this lead you to?
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: I feel like the conclusion you were drawing is that
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: the Eagles, if they get some turnovers in this game,
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: then they increase their, I mean, it goes without saying
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: that they increase their chance to win, but that might
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: be the key to the game.
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: To me, that's the win case. I mean, if you're
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: going to win this game, you're going to.
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: Need to either, you're going to need to create negative plays,
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: whether that's tackles for loss, whether that's sacks, or whether
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: that's turnovers. You need to create those plays. That is
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: the win case in my mind.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: Have you seen the line for the game?
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: It's three points in favor of the Rams. Is that correct?
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: Correct.
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: Rams are favored by three. Now let's have two quick conversations.
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: If you're a betting man and not a betting man.
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: If you're a betting man, where do you go with that?
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's a pretty good spread in my mind.
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: I think that I wouldn't touch it.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Well, I agree with you there. I was just trying
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: to put a gun to your head. I think I
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: would take the Eagles with the points.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: I could lose, but for all the factors we talked about,
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: the travel, the Eagles coming of a loss, they've been
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: a pretty good response to adversity team.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I'd pick them to win. I'd
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: have to save that for the pregame show. But I would.
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: Probably– I'd pick them like I'm in a league with
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: a bunch of friends for the last 20 years. I
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: think I did take the– because that's with points. I
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: think I took the Eagles getting the points.
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: Sure.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: When's the last time the Eagles were three point underdogs
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: at home? I don't, I don't remember.
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: I wonder. That's a really good question. I don't have
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: the answer on the top of my.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Head, but it's, I don't either. It was more of
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: a hypothetical. Like you almost never see the Eagles getting
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: points at home.
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, Nick Sirianni era, right?
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: Maybe it was a playoff game.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: Even, even probably even less so because they're always favorite,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: you know?
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: So they haven't been not favored in the playoffs since
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: that 2018 run. I think so.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: There you go. You want to give a prediction?
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: Oh, see, last time I gave a prediction and I
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: was wrong. So I'm going to, I'll say this. The
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: keys to victory come from the defense. If that, if
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: the defense shows up, because the thing is the Rams
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: defense is going to give the Eagles offense trouble, but
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: they're going to score. Like the Eagles offense is going
• 26:21
  Speaker 4: to score, but they're going to have trouble. So to me,
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: it's really on, can that defense keep the Rams offense capped?
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: That's it.
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: And to me, that is the key to victory. That
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: is the win case. I'll keep it like that. And
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: hopefully that is what we see.
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: Ladies and gentlemen, that is Sam Finkel, data and analytics expert,
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: prediction coward. You have been watching Inside the Data on
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: Inside the Birds.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: For Sam Finkel, I'm Jeff Mosher. We'll catch you all
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: on the recap.