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The Favorites - NFC South Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites the Podcast presented by BET three
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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
0:17
Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:21
Speaker 1: That's right, I said, Volume Podcast Network. For those listeners
0:26
Speaker 1: of the show longtime listeners at the show, you may
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Speaker 1: remember we were on the Volume with the Volume and
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Speaker 1: Colin Power first launched the show or the network in
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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. We love being partners with the Volume.
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Speaker 1: We're partners with them for two years. I am still
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Speaker 1: and have always been on Collins Sharper Square segment on
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Speaker 1: his show on the Volume every Thursday Friday during the
0:51
Speaker 1: NFL season. We're back on the Volume Network after a
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Speaker 1: brief hiatus. We love our friends at the Volume. We're
1:01
Speaker 1: so excited to be back with them and to also
1:05
Speaker 1: be bringing back the number one sports betting show in America.
1:11
Speaker 1: For those who are new, you are now part of
1:15
Speaker 1: our crew. I am joined as I always am. Bye,
1:21
Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Hello.
1:32
Speaker 2: Chat another week closer to the start of the season,
1:35
Speaker 2: brother and listen.
1:36
Speaker 1: What we want to do is get to the season again.
1:38
Speaker 1: For those who are new and haven't heard us before
1:42
Speaker 1: because you've been tuning in to the volume. We will
1:47
Speaker 1: go through the next six weeks every division. We will
1:50
Speaker 1: talk about season win totals. We will talk about odds
1:53
Speaker 1: to win the division. We will talk about odds to
1:55
Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. Where we think the value is
1:57
Speaker 1: for every team. Once we get in the season. The
2:01
Speaker 1: way this works, Simon and I will do a show
2:05
Speaker 1: on Tuesday in which we break down every single game,
2:08
Speaker 1: our leads, the games we like, the games we're interested in,
2:11
Speaker 1: the games that we're going to do a little more
2:13
Speaker 1: work for. On Thursday, we give everybody what will likely
2:17
Speaker 1: be our five favorite picks that we will put into
2:22
Speaker 1: our free to play one hundred thousand dollars prize pool
2:27
Speaker 1: pick'em contest that all of you are welcome to enter.
2:32
Speaker 1: We will announce that in the coming weeks. Once we
2:35
Speaker 1: get closer to the season and everything is set up,
2:39
Speaker 1: you will get to join again free to play. You
2:43
Speaker 1: will have the chance to win one hundred thousand dollars
2:45
Speaker 1: to be part of a one hundred thousand dollars prize pool.
2:48
Speaker 1: I think last year first prize got like forty thousand dollars.
2:51
Speaker 1: Producer Matt Mitchell can keep me honest on that. But
2:56
Speaker 1: Simon and I put those picks in every week. So
2:58
Speaker 1: what happens is you get to compete against me and
3:01
Speaker 1: Simon in the contest on Sunday nights before the NFL game.
3:06
Speaker 1: On Sunday night after the late games, in that seven
3:10
Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern window, Simon and I will do a
3:12
Speaker 1: quick show. We will talk about our early leans for
3:16
Speaker 1: the next week, and we will also review the heartbreak
3:18
Speaker 1: and the triumph of how we did with our five
3:21
Speaker 1: picks and where we stand in the contest. I'm looking
3:26
Speaker 1: forward to all you joining us for the ride, and
3:28
Speaker 1: by the way, joining the contest. Last year, we had
3:30
Speaker 1: twelve thousand people sign up for the contest, so super
3:35
Speaker 1: excited to run it back this year. Today, me and Simon,
3:42
Speaker 1: we're gonna be discussing the NFC South over the next
3:45
Speaker 1: few weeks. We're gonna have tons of guests. We're gonna
3:48
Speaker 1: have Field Yates from ESPN is gonna come.
3:51
Speaker 2: On the show.
3:52
Speaker 1: Warren Sharp Sharp Football Analysis is gonna come on the show.
3:55
Speaker 1: They're gonna help us break down some divisions, plus talent
3:59
Speaker 1: from the Action netw work. As a reminder, the Favorites
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Speaker 1: by clicking the link in this episode description. All right,
5:14
Speaker 1: here we go. We're gonna talk about the NFC South.
5:16
Speaker 1: Most people would say, I don't want to talk about
5:18
Speaker 1: this division. You got the Falcons who have Kirk Cousins
5:22
Speaker 1: coming back joining the team, coming back from an Achilles tear.
5:26
Speaker 1: You got the Saints who are middling and uninteresting. You
5:30
Speaker 1: got the Bucks who are middling and uninteresting. You got
5:33
Speaker 1: the Panthers, who might be one of the worst teams
5:35
Speaker 1: in the league. But that's not how Simon and I feel.
5:39
Speaker 1: Sometimes you got to do bad things if you want
5:42
Speaker 1: to win bets. I will remind people nineteen of the
5:45
Speaker 1: past twenty one seasons, an NFL team has gone from
5:49
Speaker 1: worst to first in its division. The Texans did it
5:53
Speaker 1: last year in the AFC South. The Bucks did it
5:56
Speaker 1: last year in the NFC South. Simon Panthers. Right now,
6:03
Speaker 1: Panthers are plus eleven hundred to win the division, two
6:09
Speaker 1: fifty to one to win the Super Bowl. Their season
6:12
Speaker 1: win total is four and a half. I will say
6:17
Speaker 1: for this entire division, I just outlined, like what people
6:20
Speaker 1: think about this division, that's what the markets think as well.
6:24
Speaker 1: The Falcons Panthers, saintsan Bucks have a combined win total
6:28
Speaker 1: of thirty that is the fewest for any division by
6:32
Speaker 1: more than three wins this year. Normally we'll talk about
6:37
Speaker 1: the teams from the top to the bottom. I feel
6:40
Speaker 1: like we got to talk about the Panthers because we
6:42
Speaker 1: have Sean Kerner, who is one of our best analysts,
6:45
Speaker 1: who created the Luck Rankings, which is one of the
6:47
Speaker 1: best metrics we follow to find advantages and opportunities and
6:52
Speaker 1: how the market is not judging teams correctly talked about
6:56
Speaker 1: on the show a couple weeks ago said the Panther
7:00
Speaker 1: were the most unlucky team last year. We bet the
7:03
Speaker 1: Panthers so often last year, our second place contest winner
7:08
Speaker 1: bet him so often that he came in second place
7:10
Speaker 1: and still has nightmares. Talk me off a ledge about
7:15
Speaker 1: the Panthers, because you know, I love everything about them
7:18
Speaker 1: right now.
7:20
Speaker 2: No I can't. I mean that that number is two extreme,
7:23
Speaker 2: just because of all the hate they've gotten in sports
7:25
Speaker 2: meeting and everything like that. And we talked the time
7:27
Speaker 2: how much the NFL is driven by the sports media narrative,
7:32
Speaker 2: and I, for six months, yelling from roof tops, could
7:36
Speaker 2: not wrap my head around Bryce Young being our first
7:38
Speaker 2: round pick. I kept saying anyone that's not you know,
7:42
Speaker 2: in bed with all these agents were in bed with
7:45
Speaker 2: Nick Sabe and Alabama. They have a second round grade
7:47
Speaker 2: in this kid. He is five ten, five eleven on
7:51
Speaker 2: a good day. Like that's just the reason you've never
7:54
Speaker 2: seen it before the NFL is there's a reason, right,
7:56
Speaker 2: It's like, can the guy see in the middle of
7:58
Speaker 2: the field. Can he make pass over his offensive line
8:01
Speaker 2: to the middle of the field. I mean it sounds crazy.
8:03
Speaker 2: Last year he could not, like he could not and
8:06
Speaker 2: even when he could do it, his teammates were just
8:08
Speaker 2: letting him down consistently, Like he just did not have
8:11
Speaker 2: the guys. And you know they've tried to address that
8:13
Speaker 2: stuff in this draft, right, they went out and got
8:15
Speaker 2: a rode receiver. I don't know if it's gonna be
8:17
Speaker 2: that big of a change, but what me and Chat
8:18
Speaker 2: are talking about is they've improved the offensive line, which
8:21
Speaker 2: was where they needed to start. That's where they needed
8:23
Speaker 2: to take that money from this rookie contract. You know,
8:26
Speaker 2: they have all this money to spend, that's where they
8:28
Speaker 2: invested it because they know this defense it's a two
8:31
Speaker 2: to three year rebuild right, that defense is not gonna
8:33
Speaker 2: be rebuilt over in it. They already had tony holes
8:36
Speaker 2: going into last season. You know, they've traded away Brian Burns,
8:39
Speaker 2: one of their best players by far, because they they
8:42
Speaker 2: need to keep improving, right, they needed this team needs
8:45
Speaker 2: a lot of things that he was not going to
8:46
Speaker 2: fix all these issues out of defensively. So do me
8:50
Speaker 2: and Chad really think the team's gonna in this division?
8:52
Speaker 2: Most likely not, But we've seen crazier things, right, Like
8:56
Speaker 2: we just talked about Houston, like a couple of games
8:58
Speaker 2: bounce your ways, and a couple of teams this division,
9:01
Speaker 2: you know they struggle towards the end of the year.
9:03
Speaker 2: We were talking about eleven to one ticket here on
9:05
Speaker 2: this dumb Divisionally, me and chat will able to take
9:07
Speaker 2: a position in the final two weeks to either hedge
9:10
Speaker 2: this bet or if we believe in it, which unfortunately
9:14
Speaker 2: we probably will because we liked this Panther team. That's
9:16
Speaker 2: gonna be the reason. So people kept asking, like, how
9:18
Speaker 2: can you reach taking the Panthers this year when you
9:20
Speaker 2: spent so much time last year shitting on Bryce Young?
9:23
Speaker 2: That was different. That was really just me talking about
9:25
Speaker 2: how I just I just knew for a fact their
9:27
Speaker 2: gym didn't make that pick, and then it solely came
9:29
Speaker 2: out that it was their owner that kind of stepped
9:31
Speaker 2: in and made the pick on Bryce Young. So we've
9:34
Speaker 2: kind of moved on from that point. I think last
9:35
Speaker 2: year was really about the coaching and the players. Everyone
9:38
Speaker 2: was just going through it and there was just nothing
9:40
Speaker 2: left in that team, where this year they are feeling
9:42
Speaker 2: pretty good. I mean, I've seen a couple of beer
9:44
Speaker 2: righters talking about like there is a different vibe in
9:46
Speaker 2: a different sense around this team and coming into the season.
9:50
Speaker 2: So yeah, if you're if you're if you're like, you
9:53
Speaker 2: know what, I don't really want to invest heavily into this team,
9:56
Speaker 2: do We mean? Chat is not going to take the
9:57
Speaker 2: divisional bet, but how do you not bet the over
9:59
Speaker 2: four and a half? Like, even just talking about their
10:02
Speaker 2: division and the fact they have a last place schedule,
10:05
Speaker 2: I feel I really do feel like they're gonna hit
10:07
Speaker 2: this number of people. Like they're not as bad as
10:09
Speaker 2: you perceive. There. They beat Houston last year, a team
10:12
Speaker 2: we're raving about right now. This team did beat Houston,
10:15
Speaker 2: Like they do have guys on this team that can
10:18
Speaker 2: make plays and they can't step up even Green Bay Packers.
10:20
Speaker 2: I think the Packers did beat them, but Bryce Young
10:22
Speaker 2: put up over thirty points against that Packers defense. Like
10:26
Speaker 2: we saw moments, we saw flashes. They I just really
10:29
Speaker 2: don't think they had the coach lastow. I don't even
10:31
Speaker 2: know if they had the coaching this year. But I
10:32
Speaker 2: know it's gonna better than what was last year. I
10:34
Speaker 2: can guarantee you, because last year I feel like the
10:36
Speaker 2: guys totally quit on the guys who are running that team.
10:39
Speaker 2: Or this year, I just don't get that sense at all.
10:41
Speaker 2: So yeah, like I'm telling you, of all the lowest
10:45
Speaker 2: win total teams, a lot of the guys I get
10:47
Speaker 2: the under Like I took Tennessee's under, which I usually don't.
10:50
Speaker 2: On totals that low, you have to tick the over
10:52
Speaker 2: this one. I got this one model at six wins.
10:54
Speaker 2: That's a game and a half of value right here.
10:57
Speaker 2: Like that, that's a nice wide range of value here.
11:01
Speaker 2: That factors in what we talked about with Sean, the
11:04
Speaker 2: bad luck right that they had last year. We got
11:07
Speaker 2: to see some of that even out right. It's just
11:09
Speaker 2: probability we're playing here, So I know, hold your nose, people,
11:12
Speaker 2: it's a gross one, but divisional odds at this number,
11:15
Speaker 2: you got to take it. Over four and a half wins,
11:17
Speaker 2: you got to take it. Super Bowl odds. Don't waste
11:20
Speaker 2: your money. Do not waste your money in the Super
11:22
Speaker 2: Bowl adds. There's no chance. I don't care how big
11:25
Speaker 2: of a step Bright Young takes. I just I have
11:28
Speaker 2: them so far behind as a team, just because again
11:31
Speaker 2: I told you they're rebuilding that defense. So divisional win total,
11:34
Speaker 2: that's where you're gonna get the best bang for your buck.
11:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, the strength of their schedule is tenth easiest. Again,
11:42
Speaker 1: things that that we look at for those who are
11:46
Speaker 1: new to the show, we talk a lot about offensive
11:49
Speaker 1: and defensive line is how we're trying to find value
11:52
Speaker 1: because when the market is creating numbers, whether it's odds
11:57
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl or season win totals or
11:59
Speaker 1: even during the season favorites, underdogs, etc. A lot of
12:05
Speaker 1: times it doesn't account for offensive and defensive line. The
12:10
Speaker 1: reason why professional betters spend the preseason watching every snap
12:15
Speaker 1: of the game is because they want to know in
12:17
Speaker 1: Week five, if the backup guard is playing, what kind
12:22
Speaker 1: of impact is going is that going to have on
12:24
Speaker 1: the game? And the team. What happens from the inside
12:27
Speaker 1: out is so important for betting generally. So we will
12:31
Speaker 1: look at strength of schedule and that is based on
12:34
Speaker 1: the aggregate season win total number for the teams that
12:39
Speaker 1: the team we are talking about is playing for the
12:41
Speaker 1: upcoming season, in this case twenty twenty four. We will
12:44
Speaker 1: look at the offensive line rank according to Pro Football Focus,
12:47
Speaker 1: which I love their offensive line ranks and how they
12:49
Speaker 1: great players and their defensive line rank so again, according
12:52
Speaker 1: to Pro Football Focus, strength to schedule for Carolina tenth
12:57
Speaker 1: easiest this year, again speaks to the power of betting.
13:01
Speaker 1: The over four and a half offensive line rank twenty
13:05
Speaker 1: and that is with big investments in free agency Damian
13:08
Speaker 1: Lewis and Robert Hunt, who was a very highly rated
13:12
Speaker 1: offensive lineman according to Pro Football Focus, and like you said,
13:15
Speaker 1: they traded away Brian Burns, one of the best ed
13:17
Speaker 1: rushers in the league. Their defensive line rank is twenty nine.
13:21
Speaker 1: They're basically starting from scratch with this unit. But as
13:27
Speaker 1: I said, betting means doing bad things right, and so
13:31
Speaker 1: let me give you some stats about how disgusting it
13:36
Speaker 1: is that we are spending as much time as we
13:39
Speaker 1: are talking about the Carolina Panthers, who we love so much.
13:45
Speaker 1: We love going back to last year because they were
13:47
Speaker 1: so undervalued in the market. Carolina Panthers have the longest
13:52
Speaker 1: Super Bowl odds of any team entering this season, at
13:56
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty to one, So the first time
14:00
Speaker 1: since two thousand and five two thousand and six San
14:01
Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers that a team that picked number
14:04
Speaker 1: one in the NFL Draft. So last season they picked
14:06
Speaker 1: number one Bryce Young and had the worst Super Bowl
14:09
Speaker 1: odds the following season, So nobody thinks they got any better,
14:13
Speaker 1: and there's reasons for that, right. They haven't covered a
14:16
Speaker 1: spread in which they were favored since twenty twenty one,
14:18
Speaker 1: almost three full seasons. Last year, they averaged just four
14:23
Speaker 1: point one yards per offensive play. That was the year
14:27
Speaker 1: worst mark for any team since the Bengals in two
14:29
Speaker 1: thousand and eight. Their four point one yards per offensive
14:34
Speaker 1: play was the third lowest for any team since nineteen ninety,
14:42
Speaker 1: almost thirty five years. They didn't snap a ball last
14:45
Speaker 1: year while leading in the fourth quarter of a single game,
14:49
Speaker 1: the first time that's happened in the wild Card era
14:51
Speaker 1: again since nineteen ninety. Are you ready for me to
14:58
Speaker 1: tell you the good news, sigmon, Yes, because right now
15:02
Speaker 1: it feels like, how can we be telling anybody how
15:05
Speaker 1: much we love the Carolina Panthers, And by the way,
15:07
Speaker 1: we do love them at eleven to one, we do
15:09
Speaker 1: love the over four and a half one more for you,
15:17
Speaker 1: How bad was Bryce Young? Last year? You're supposed to
15:21
Speaker 1: ask me how bad was?
15:22
Speaker 2: How bad was?
15:23
Speaker 1: Only three quarterbacks in NFL history have had eleven past
15:29
Speaker 1: touchdowns or less, ten interceptions or more, and less than
15:34
Speaker 1: sixty percent completion percentage with fifty plus secks. Bryce Young,
15:42
Speaker 1: Blake Bortles, David Carr, You've just been bortled? Do you
15:48
Speaker 1: or do you not feel less confident thinking about all
15:52
Speaker 1: this and then picturing Bryce Young walking into camp with
15:59
Speaker 1: a backpack that made him look like he was entering
16:03
Speaker 1: his first day of kindergarten.
16:06
Speaker 2: But again it goes back to how stupid football is?
16:08
Speaker 2: You just talk about Blake Bortles. I mean, three years
16:11
Speaker 2: later he almost beat Tom Brady, almost played the Eagles
16:15
Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl, and then two years after that
16:17
Speaker 2: he was out of the league. So it is a
16:20
Speaker 2: crazy sport where these guys just they can find it
16:23
Speaker 2: in the right for a couple of years and then
16:25
Speaker 2: it's just gone. And I don't think any of us
16:27
Speaker 2: sitting here will be shocked if Bryce Young is out
16:29
Speaker 2: of the league in four or five years, or you know,
16:32
Speaker 2: if he does somehow get a next contract. But it's just,
16:36
Speaker 2: you know, we talk all the time about the butterfly
16:38
Speaker 2: effect in this league, and Lovey Smith didn't quit on
16:41
Speaker 2: his team in Houston, made them play it out. They
16:44
Speaker 2: somehow fought tooth and nail got the second pick overall,
16:48
Speaker 2: which gave Carolina the chance to trade up to Chicago
16:51
Speaker 2: to get their number one pick. And what they do.
16:54
Speaker 2: They took Bryce Seawan Houston, who did all the right things,
16:56
Speaker 2: didn't try to tank. They got their guys CG number two.
16:59
Speaker 2: And it's just how it is a football. It's like
17:02
Speaker 2: those bizarre things. They're all connected. And now the following year,
17:05
Speaker 2: instead of you guys having the twenty fifth pick or
17:08
Speaker 2: twenty fourth pick, what Houston's picking now, which is what
17:11
Speaker 2: Carolina's pick probably would have been, because again they would
17:14
Speaker 2: add CJ and probably would have won their division and
17:16
Speaker 2: been a playoff team. You guys had the number one pick,
17:19
Speaker 2: and you got a generational talent in Chicago. So we
17:22
Speaker 2: talk all the time, but all these different things that
17:24
Speaker 2: are connected, and that's how I feel with Carolina. It's
17:27
Speaker 2: like last year couldn't have got any worse. It was
17:30
Speaker 2: all so negative, and they put him in such a
17:32
Speaker 2: position to fail. I mean, their best receiver. If you
17:34
Speaker 2: go look at it, it was adding feeling and this
17:37
Speaker 2: guy is like a day away from retiring. That's how
17:39
Speaker 2: bad of a team they were. This guy was able
17:42
Speaker 2: to be by far their best offensive weapon. It's just
17:44
Speaker 2: not going to be that way this year. I just
17:46
Speaker 2: do have faith that Bryce Young was all on its
17:49
Speaker 2: head last year and this year they feel free and loose.
17:51
Speaker 2: And again the b Raiders are saying they've looked better
17:54
Speaker 2: so far since the camps have started. So that's what
17:57
Speaker 2: me and Chat are playing putting faith in, is that
17:59
Speaker 2: they just had the season from hell, had crazy bad luck.
18:03
Speaker 2: Now they've added pieces at this team. Again, we're not
18:05
Speaker 2: talking super Bowl here, but can they get to six
18:08
Speaker 2: seven wins? I think they can. Could they shock the
18:10
Speaker 2: arn and get to nine and eight and somehow win
18:12
Speaker 2: this division like Tampa did last year. I think things
18:14
Speaker 2: could break that way. But it's also again we're about
18:17
Speaker 2: to go through these other teams here. All these other teams,
18:19
Speaker 2: they have their own wards here. So that's why this
18:21
Speaker 2: division to me feels like it's wide open rather than
18:24
Speaker 2: you know, eleven to one chat to win this division.
18:26
Speaker 2: That just feels so extreme.
18:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's why we're convincing ourselves here.
18:30
Speaker 2: We are.
18:32
Speaker 1: I think there's three things in play. Number one, how
18:36
Speaker 1: badly they did last year. Things things can't go that
18:42
Speaker 1: badly again, It's almost statistically impossible. Everybody in betting is
18:49
Speaker 1: always going to bet the balance back right, We're buying
18:52
Speaker 1: at the lowest part of the market for the Carolina
18:54
Speaker 1: Panthers across multiple markets, especially when it comes to season
18:59
Speaker 1: win totals at four and a half and to win
19:01
Speaker 1: the division at eleven to one. We like the fact
19:04
Speaker 1: that they were so incredibly unlucky last season, as Kerner
19:08
Speaker 1: pointed out Sean Kerner, the unluckiest team in the NFL
19:13
Speaker 1: per Our Luck rankings. Let me give you a couple
19:15
Speaker 1: of stats from one of our other brilliant analysts. You
19:20
Speaker 1: can listen to them on the Action Network podcast, Chris
19:23
Speaker 1: Raibam win totals. These are going to make us feel better.
19:27
Speaker 1: Win totals for teams that won four or fewer games
19:31
Speaker 1: in the prior season are a fifty eight percent to
19:36
Speaker 1: the Over the past twenty two years, win totals for
19:40
Speaker 1: teams that won four or fewer games in the prior
19:42
Speaker 1: season and then hired a new head coach fifty nine
19:46
Speaker 1: percent the last twenty years. Win totals for teams with
19:50
Speaker 1: first time head coaches to the over our fifty seven
19:53
Speaker 1: percent since two thousand and two. Win totals for teams
19:57
Speaker 1: that won four fewer games in the prior season and
20:01
Speaker 1: nan hired a first time head coach sixty seven percent
20:07
Speaker 1: since two thousand and two. So I like that we
20:12
Speaker 1: are betting on them to go over because all of
20:17
Speaker 1: the trends say they will do better from whether it's luck,
20:22
Speaker 1: whether it's bottom of the market, whether it's the season
20:26
Speaker 1: win total. Betting data that we have from the past
20:29
Speaker 1: twenty years. Love it Panthers eleven to one. Panther's over
20:36
Speaker 1: four and a half. If nobody takes anything else from
20:39
Speaker 1: this show, that's what they have to take. But look,
20:44
Speaker 1: Atlanta is also a really intriguing team, and Atlanta has,
20:48
Speaker 1: according to their opponents' win totals, the easiest schedule in
20:53
Speaker 1: the NFL. They have one of the best offensive lines
20:57
Speaker 1: top ten ranked offensive line number eight, Drew Dollmond their
21:00
Speaker 1: center one of Pro football focused highest rated run blocking centers,
21:04
Speaker 1: and Chris lichtrom highest rated overall guard, great offensive line.
21:10
Speaker 1: Defensive line ranked twenty eighth. They last had a player
21:14
Speaker 1: with ten sacks in twenty sixteen, Vic Beasley. Since twenty
21:18
Speaker 1: seventeen is the only team in the NFL without a
21:21
Speaker 1: ten sack season by any player. The key here is
21:25
Speaker 1: is Kirk Cousins. Does he come back from the Achilles
21:27
Speaker 1: injury or not?
21:30
Speaker 2: Yeah? And I thought he wasn't going to come back
21:32
Speaker 2: this soon. Like I made a bet on Penix. I
21:35
Speaker 2: think it was eighty to one or seventy five to
21:37
Speaker 2: one to be Rookie of the Year. It was simply
21:38
Speaker 2: taking a position of Okay, say this kid, Penick starts
21:42
Speaker 2: weeks one through three and they're three and oh, or
21:45
Speaker 2: they're two and one and he's playing. Well, do you
21:48
Speaker 2: think they really put Kirk in over this kid. I
21:50
Speaker 2: don't think they do. It's a business at the end
21:52
Speaker 2: of the day, and the business plan is find the
21:55
Speaker 2: rookie contract right. And their view of it was I
22:00
Speaker 2: talked about it last year. They tried moving to get
22:02
Speaker 2: a quarterback last year and it just did not work
22:04
Speaker 2: out right, so they rolled with it, and they realized quickly,
22:07
Speaker 2: we've just wasted entire season of this organization. And their
22:10
Speaker 2: owner is one of the older owners in the league,
22:12
Speaker 2: and I think he came down to them said listen,
22:14
Speaker 2: I just want a quarterbacks that can trust him. Go
22:17
Speaker 2: get me Kirk. They go get Kirk, and then they
22:19
Speaker 2: watch Pennix's film, they fall in love with him. I mean,
22:22
Speaker 2: I was shocked by a Chad was shocked. I think
22:23
Speaker 2: Johnny Manziel is the only person in the world not
22:25
Speaker 2: shocked by him going at number eight, which is the truth.
22:28
Speaker 2: Like I had a high grade in the kid, but
22:30
Speaker 2: he does have some wards. But it's like Chad just
22:32
Speaker 2: talked about, you give him a great offensive line of weapons,
22:35
Speaker 2: Pennix is gonna thrive. Like that's the perfect setup for
22:38
Speaker 2: this kid. And you know, Kirk, we're gonna see because
22:42
Speaker 2: Kirk is an Aaron Rodgers. He's never been Aaron Rodgers.
22:45
Speaker 2: Even at Kirk's best right, We've always viewed him as
22:49
Speaker 2: a top twelve, top fifteen guy because he has these
22:51
Speaker 2: moments where he's the top eight guy, but then the
22:53
Speaker 2: next game, he's just back to the old Kirk right,
22:55
Speaker 2: back to tons of turnovers. They're just making bonehead plays.
22:58
Speaker 2: And that's the issue with Kirk Cousins. He's just he's
23:00
Speaker 2: never been consistent his whole career. And you know, he's
23:04
Speaker 2: done great, He's done really well, right, a couple ten
23:07
Speaker 2: win seasons. Him and the Vikings had that incredible run
23:10
Speaker 2: where they won their division and me and Chap were
23:13
Speaker 2: just like, this team are frauds, right, and that Giants
23:15
Speaker 2: sure enough went it to Minnesota, they beat them in
23:17
Speaker 2: the playoffs. And that's kind of how I feel about Kirk,
23:20
Speaker 2: where it's like, you know, if I won ten wins
23:24
Speaker 2: healthy Kirk, if I got offensive weapons around him, he's
23:27
Speaker 2: gonna get me to ten wins. Like That's why it's
23:29
Speaker 2: hard to bad mouth Kirk, because he has been so
23:31
Speaker 2: much better than all these other guys. But we don't
23:34
Speaker 2: know we're getting right now. I read the other day
23:36
Speaker 2: but a beat right talking about how he's still not
23:38
Speaker 2: pushing off that foot, right, he's still doing quick throws.
23:41
Speaker 2: He's not really cranking out the hard throws out to
23:44
Speaker 2: the outs, right, He's not putting all his weight into
23:47
Speaker 2: and throwing deep balls. Yet it's like he's really being
23:50
Speaker 2: careful and tender with Aaron Rodgers. I just watched him
23:52
Speaker 2: in the Jets practice. He's got no restrictions. He's all
23:55
Speaker 2: over the place, moving, throwing on the run, putting all
23:58
Speaker 2: his weight onto it, stepping into it. He's got no
24:00
Speaker 2: worries right now with that Achilles. So that's that's the
24:03
Speaker 2: caution tail here is you are betting a minus twenty
24:07
Speaker 2: favorite divisional bet right now on a team with a
24:10
Speaker 2: guy that we are so unsure of in a defense
24:12
Speaker 2: that I think they're a bottom twenty five, bottom of
24:15
Speaker 2: twenty seven, you know, defense, Like they're they're really projected
24:19
Speaker 2: low in my model. So offensively, I get why people
24:22
Speaker 2: are so enamored with this team. It's just they have,
24:26
Speaker 2: you know, a top three running back and Drake Lynn
24:28
Speaker 2: on the outside is a great receiver. And Kyle Pitts,
24:30
Speaker 2: we know he's a great tight end. He's just never
24:32
Speaker 2: had a quarterback get him the ball. And what is
24:34
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins love. He loves a good tight end. So
24:36
Speaker 2: like you should see growth there. But it's like there's
24:39
Speaker 2: so many questions here where I mean, we've had guests
24:42
Speaker 2: on We're like yeah, the Land is a slam duncan.
24:44
Speaker 2: It's like, how can you feel that way about this team?
24:46
Speaker 2: Like they do have so many questions in a division
24:49
Speaker 2: we talk all the time is really wonky. And Chad
24:51
Speaker 2: said they have the easiest schedule. They hit the second
24:54
Speaker 2: easiest schedule a off football. Last year the Saints had
24:56
Speaker 2: number one. Neither of them made the playoffs Tampa, but
24:59
Speaker 2: we this is left for dead. They were the team
25:01
Speaker 2: that took care of their easy schedule and we were
25:03
Speaker 2: able to make the playoff runs. So that's my issue
25:06
Speaker 2: with Atlanta is be cautious. People thirty to one super
25:08
Speaker 2: Bowl odds. You are crazy if you're betting them thirty
25:11
Speaker 2: to one to win Super Bowl. I mean, that's that's insane.
25:14
Speaker 2: Like they should be like the Jaguars, they should be
25:16
Speaker 2: fifty to one. But maybe they don't have that that
25:19
Speaker 2: low of jit just because people are like, well, if
25:22
Speaker 2: they won the division, they'll be the fourth seed, they'll
25:24
Speaker 2: get a home game. It's just is there a home
25:26
Speaker 2: field advantage to Atlanta? I don't know, it's been so
25:29
Speaker 2: long since they've had any type of really big fan base.
25:31
Speaker 2: I mean even that Matt Ryan run I guess the
25:34
Speaker 2: last time, I guess is twenty sixteen. It was when
25:36
Speaker 2: the last time they really liked that, So just be
25:39
Speaker 2: careful people. They're a team I've taken their under I
25:43
Speaker 2: haven't projected nine to eight again half a game, not
25:46
Speaker 2: putting that much money on it. But it's like, yeah,
25:48
Speaker 2: they to me have too many questions to be a
25:51
Speaker 2: team that's minus won twenty for this division and have
25:53
Speaker 2: an over of nine and a half. It's just it's
25:55
Speaker 2: just too much faith in this team right now, so
25:58
Speaker 2: they feel like an easy But at the same time,
26:01
Speaker 2: me and Chat won't be shocked if they win this division.
26:03
Speaker 2: They clearly have the best offense in this division, so
26:07
Speaker 2: wouldn't be shocked by it, but would be shocked if
26:09
Speaker 2: their defense were able to get them wins. It just
26:12
Speaker 2: feels like, once again it's all falling off Kirk Cousins,
26:15
Speaker 2: which we've seen before usually doesn't end well for his teams.
26:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, Simon mentioned it's thirty to one to win the
26:20
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, minus one twenty to win the division. Nine
26:23
Speaker 1: and a half is the season win total. None of
26:27
Speaker 1: that is attractive right there. There's so many question marks
26:31
Speaker 1: with this team. It's why. Honestly, it's why Carolina looks
26:35
Speaker 1: so much more interesting because you can so clearly see
26:40
Speaker 1: the upside in the opportunity. Atlanta, Like, it just feels
26:46
Speaker 1: like you're not getting any value anything.
26:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels like it's all built into the max level.
26:51
Speaker 2: It's like it's just been totally bet out, priced out.
26:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's exactly what it is. Like, It's just it's
26:56
Speaker 1: exactly where it should be. They're the most nondescript team
27:01
Speaker 1: the whole division, right, Like We've always talked about this,
27:05
Speaker 1: like the NFC south of the AFC South, they just
27:08
Speaker 1: don't have any sea any like great legacy fandom they do.
27:15
Speaker 2: You say this everything I told you the Colts have
27:17
Speaker 2: it because of Peyton they do.
27:20
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, Like they're all sort of The
27:23
Speaker 1: Cults are the only one only because they came from Baltimore, right, So,
27:27
Speaker 1: like Globo at least feels familiar. There's nobody outside of
27:31
Speaker 1: the Southeast, who's who's wearing a Jaguars logo, logo, who's
27:36
Speaker 1: thinking about the Atlanta Falcons, Like nobody gives a shit
27:40
Speaker 1: about these teams anywhere.
27:43
Speaker 2: Like, I mean, they had they had the Mike Vick
27:45
Speaker 2: thing was a culture thing, right, I'll never forget you
27:47
Speaker 2: saw those SEVENS jerseys everywhere, But that's true. I do
27:50
Speaker 2: agree with you that, Like even when we talk about
27:53
Speaker 2: it sometimes I yawn a little bit where it's like
27:55
Speaker 2: the AFC South, there's brutal.
27:58
Speaker 1: Like Matt Ryan was the perfect quarterback for a team
28:01
Speaker 1: like you kind of ever knew his personality. He kind
28:04
Speaker 1: of wasn't that flashy. He just ended up having a
28:07
Speaker 1: lot of yards in a stadium that always felt really quiet.
28:10
Speaker 1: Quiet yardage for quiet fans. That's that's how I think
28:13
Speaker 1: about the Atlanta Falcons, sorry to say it, Panthers.
28:17
Speaker 2: That was just saying that's with Matt Ryan having Roddy
28:20
Speaker 2: White and then Julio Jones, like two.
28:22
Speaker 1: Airline of Panthers. Simon, they're getting ready to roar. See
28:28
Speaker 1: what I did?
28:28
Speaker 2: There? Was all that all right.
28:31
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers made the playoffs last year. Baker Mayfield,
28:35
Speaker 1: he made some money. Eighty to one to win the
28:37
Speaker 1: Super Bowl this year plus three twenty to win the division.
28:39
Speaker 1: Nine and a half is the win total. They also,
28:44
Speaker 1: I mean the theme for this division is easy schedule,
28:47
Speaker 1: mainly because they all play each other and none of
28:49
Speaker 1: the teams had a very good record, so eleventh, easiest schedule,
28:54
Speaker 1: middle of the pack, offensive line at seventeen, middle of
28:56
Speaker 1: the pack, defensive line at twenty. Not seeing a lot
29:01
Speaker 1: that lights my fire here.
29:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, my biggest issue is they've lost their offensive coordinator
29:06
Speaker 2: who I thought did so much, I mean as much
29:08
Speaker 2: as McVeigh did for you know, bringing back you know,
29:13
Speaker 2: a quarterback that we left for dead. Now I'm Baker.
29:16
Speaker 2: So now he got paired up with a perfect go
29:17
Speaker 2: see with the best weapons he could ask for on
29:19
Speaker 2: the outside to that offensive cordinerator has left, so now
29:22
Speaker 2: he needs to learn another new playbook, which is gonna
29:25
Speaker 2: be a lot to put on Baker. And then you
29:27
Speaker 2: add the expectations now because he did get paid. This
29:30
Speaker 2: is the team that did win the division last year.
29:32
Speaker 2: It's all there like you're we're all betting on a regression, Like,
29:35
Speaker 2: how can you not think regressions? Apple? This team? So
29:38
Speaker 2: I owned it last year. This was a team that
29:41
Speaker 2: I missed on in the preseason. I just I couldn't
29:43
Speaker 2: get behind Baker. Plenty of professionals I talked to they
29:46
Speaker 2: like this team. They went heavy on them Week one
29:49
Speaker 2: against the Minnesota Vikings. I think they were like a
29:51
Speaker 2: five point dog. They went out right and me and
29:53
Speaker 2: Chat were both, look, any change, how about this Bucks team?
29:57
Speaker 2: We still did. It took a little while to come around,
29:58
Speaker 2: and by mid season we're like, this is the best
30:00
Speaker 2: team in this division. Like this, this does feel like
30:03
Speaker 2: there is a separation here between them at Lanta and
30:05
Speaker 2: the Saints. And as the season went along, it was
30:09
Speaker 2: like big win, I mean, one of the biggest wins
30:11
Speaker 2: they had. They went on the road and beat the
30:12
Speaker 2: crap out of Green Bay and it was like, wow,
30:15
Speaker 2: like this this team can really put up some numbers
30:17
Speaker 2: when the offense is clicking. And then even the playoffs,
30:20
Speaker 2: I mean, say which went about the egos beating themselves,
30:23
Speaker 2: they dominated them like they looked like they bullied them
30:26
Speaker 2: in that whole game. And even when the Detroit Baker
30:30
Speaker 2: just had an off game, right, that was the difference
30:31
Speaker 2: in that Detroit game where Baker just didn't have it
30:33
Speaker 2: that day. When he doesn't have it, he really does
30:36
Speaker 2: not have it. Baker, like that was his whole rub.
30:38
Speaker 2: Even when he was in Cleve on the Browns, they
30:40
Speaker 2: just they complained about him being inconsistent. That's where like
30:43
Speaker 2: they went out and made a stupid move to go
30:44
Speaker 2: get to Shrona Watson because they just won a top
30:46
Speaker 2: level consistency. Where're you know, Baker just had stuff to
30:50
Speaker 2: work out, right. That's that's the key with Baker is
30:52
Speaker 2: that he's never going to be that number one pick
30:55
Speaker 2: where where we just assumed he was gonna be right, Like,
30:58
Speaker 2: he was just so incredible come out of college and
31:02
Speaker 2: last year we saw a glimpse of it. I mean,
31:04
Speaker 2: even me and you talked about it. We're just like
31:06
Speaker 2: this guy. I remember we did a film breaking him down.
31:08
Speaker 2: He was just getting the crack picked at him. I
31:10
Speaker 2: think he had gone zero for five passing and again
31:13
Speaker 2: I'm talking about this oc. He went right back to
31:15
Speaker 2: it the next year's they went out there, the coach
31:17
Speaker 2: threw three straight passing plays and Baker drove him down
31:20
Speaker 2: the field and won the game for them to obviously
31:21
Speaker 2: win this division. So I understand why people are kind
31:26
Speaker 2: of hesitant to bet this team now because Chad just
31:28
Speaker 2: said they had the tenth easy schedule. They still have
31:30
Speaker 2: the first. They still have the division winning schedule, right
31:33
Speaker 2: they means they have to play the other three divisional winners.
31:35
Speaker 2: That's that's a big deal, right, Like instead of playing
31:38
Speaker 2: you know, the Giants or Washington, they're going to play Dallas,
31:41
Speaker 2: and it's like that that does matter when you bring
31:44
Speaker 2: into win totals. So I'm a little shocked the books
31:48
Speaker 2: got them in nine and a half as well. This
31:50
Speaker 2: this team I have grade out of eight wins. So
31:53
Speaker 2: technically Stills really love this under but I just I'm
31:58
Speaker 2: not loving it. Like there's just I just have such
32:00
Speaker 2: faith in Mike Evans and God when it's like even
32:03
Speaker 2: with Baker losing to his seat, it's like he has
32:06
Speaker 2: two All pros, one Hall of Famer on the other side,
32:08
Speaker 2: and Mike Evans, like they're all there, like they can
32:11
Speaker 2: somehow make this work and figure it out. My issue
32:14
Speaker 2: is I can't see that right now because we're so
32:16
Speaker 2: early into this preseason, Like I don't know what their
32:19
Speaker 2: offensive style is going to look like. I don't even know,
32:21
Speaker 2: like there, I don't know if it was there a
32:23
Speaker 2: right tackle or they're left tackle. Somebody's holding out right now.
32:26
Speaker 2: If he leaves, I think it was worth right. That's
32:29
Speaker 2: that's a huge deal to that team, Like that guy's
32:32
Speaker 2: an All Pro at their tackle that that is a
32:34
Speaker 2: really big deal. So I hate to do this and say,
32:37
Speaker 2: you just don't put any action on this one right now.
32:39
Speaker 2: But I wouldn't touch the win totally unless you want
32:42
Speaker 2: to go towards younger, because that's what I'm going towards.
32:44
Speaker 2: And I would not touch their divisional odes.
32:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, the nine and a half, it feels way too.
32:49
Speaker 2: Hot, that's what. It doesn't make sense.
32:50
Speaker 1: It doesn't make sense. This should be this should be
32:53
Speaker 1: at eight.
32:53
Speaker 2: And a half.
32:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I agree, there's other divisions where like look
32:58
Speaker 1: at the Colts right Ulster at eight and a half.
33:00
Speaker 1: Obviously the divisions a little bit harder. You got the Texans, Yeah,
33:03
Speaker 1: everyone expects to be better, to be one of the
33:06
Speaker 1: best teams in the league. You got the Jags who
33:08
Speaker 1: will improve. So you can see why the win total
33:12
Speaker 1: is at eight and a half. But the Cults are
33:14
Speaker 1: also a better team. The division odds, excuse me, are
33:18
Speaker 1: pretty close to the same, and this team's at nine
33:21
Speaker 1: and a half. It's because of the schedule and because
33:24
Speaker 1: of the division. I don't like the reason they got
33:28
Speaker 1: to the wins they got last year because Baker had
33:31
Speaker 1: a stretch where he just wasn't thrown any interceptions, and like,
33:36
Speaker 1: I don't know that we can believe in that again,
33:40
Speaker 1: right and and seven.
33:41
Speaker 2: That's why I can't believe Vegas the saying they're like, yeah,
33:43
Speaker 2: we think this is a ten and seven team because
33:45
Speaker 2: you look at right now, that's juice to the under
33:47
Speaker 2: that and they've just been getting pounded to the under
33:49
Speaker 2: by the pros. So that's why I'm I'm right there
33:51
Speaker 2: with Chad. It's like, I wanted to load up on this,
33:53
Speaker 2: but I'm not gonna lie. It's it's scared me a
33:55
Speaker 2: little bit because they have not moved that number. It's
33:57
Speaker 2: been getting hit and they've just held the nine and
33:59
Speaker 2: a half.
34:00
Speaker 1: The new offensive coordinator Dave Canalis, who was the offensive coordinator,
34:03
Speaker 1: he's now the new head coach in Carolina, and the
34:08
Speaker 1: new offensive.
34:09
Speaker 2: That's again that's another reason we didn't even talked about.
34:10
Speaker 2: I really liked the Panthers, Like I just think this
34:13
Speaker 2: guy was incredible with Baker last year. So thank you
34:16
Speaker 2: for bringing that up.
34:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, he was great with Baker last year, and we
34:18
Speaker 1: should have talked about that with the Panthers. But and
34:22
Speaker 1: look that that team, like what they got rid of
34:26
Speaker 1: with Frank Reich last year and moving on to a
34:28
Speaker 1: new guy with a fresh approach, like it just makes sense.
34:32
Speaker 1: The new offense coordinator for the Box is Liam Cohne,
34:37
Speaker 1: who has one season as an offensive coordinator. Of course,
34:41
Speaker 1: you shake Sean mcvay's hand and you're going to get
34:43
Speaker 1: another opportunity to be a big coordinator or head coach.
34:46
Speaker 1: And he was a coordinator for the Rams for one
34:49
Speaker 1: season in twenty twenty two. But he's basically spent his
34:51
Speaker 1: screener in college, right like he was at Kentucky last year,
34:56
Speaker 1: and then like had been assistant coaches in Maine, you Mass,
35:01
Speaker 1: Rhode Island, everything around, you know, within an hour of
35:05
Speaker 1: my house. So a lot of questions here, A lot
35:10
Speaker 1: of questions with the Bucks.
35:12
Speaker 2: Too many questions to be taken over a nine and
35:13
Speaker 2: a half just one of the more bizarre win totals
35:15
Speaker 2: of the season.
35:16
Speaker 1: Too many questions to even talk about them anymore. Let's
35:19
Speaker 1: talk about the New Orleans Saints, who we can't stand.
35:23
Speaker 1: Talk about a team that has just fallen off the
35:26
Speaker 1: face of the earth, that we used to love, that
35:28
Speaker 1: had so much personality with Sean Payton. Now you got
35:31
Speaker 1: Dennis Allen one hundred to one to win the Super Bowl,
35:34
Speaker 1: plus three forty to win the Division at least like
35:37
Speaker 1: their win total was in line with what we thought
35:39
Speaker 1: it should have been last year. They're at seven and
35:40
Speaker 1: a half. But this team, like they were bad last year,
35:46
Speaker 1: they'd gotten worse. They got the fifth easiest schedule. Not
35:49
Speaker 1: sure it matters. Their offensive line rank thirty two, their
35:52
Speaker 1: defensive line rank twenty four. I can recite all the
35:57
Speaker 1: stats about Dennis Allen. We hate betting on is Allen.
36:01
Speaker 1: We hate betting on Derek Carr, especially as a favorite.
36:04
Speaker 1: I'll get into it, but do I need to, because
36:07
Speaker 1: you're not going to tell me there's opportunity on the
36:10
Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints.
36:13
Speaker 2: I'm gonna try not to obviously. You know, in this division,
36:17
Speaker 2: like Chad just said, anything can happen, right, But all
36:20
Speaker 2: science point to this being a dead team. It's just
36:23
Speaker 2: a remnants of a great empire that's just slowly burning.
36:27
Speaker 2: It's like the end of the Roman Empire. It's just
36:29
Speaker 2: there's a couple of beautiful buildings left in there, right there,
36:32
Speaker 2: a couple of guys left over from it, but overall
36:34
Speaker 2: they're all aging out now. And even you know Alive,
36:38
Speaker 2: who I think is one of the better receivers in football.
36:41
Speaker 2: He doesn't move the needle, Like there's nothing he could
36:43
Speaker 2: do to really make you kind of accompass this team.
36:45
Speaker 2: So yeah, someone that's probably one of the last Derek
36:48
Speaker 2: Carr believers. They didn't do a single thing in this
36:51
Speaker 2: offseason that improved their team substantiously. Like, I just don't
36:57
Speaker 2: know what they spend money on. They spend money on
36:59
Speaker 2: a tight end quarterback, right, Like they've have all these
37:02
Speaker 2: weird signings on this team that just don't really make
37:04
Speaker 2: any sense. Why not try to attack improve the offensive line,
37:08
Speaker 2: but you know that's such a huge weakness. It's just
37:10
Speaker 2: I don't know what their ownership's doing, and they're kind
37:12
Speaker 2: of their hands are tied because they've spent money on
37:14
Speaker 2: such weird players and they've built this weird team where
37:16
Speaker 2: it's like they're stuck. So you know, I got them
37:20
Speaker 2: graded out seven wins, seven and a half. That means
37:22
Speaker 2: I'm going towards the ender. That feels right, especially when
37:25
Speaker 2: we're talking about we think the Panthers are going to
37:27
Speaker 2: be much better than last year, like that those were
37:28
Speaker 2: easy wins last year for some of these teams in
37:31
Speaker 2: this division. They're not gonna have the other Panthers, right,
37:33
Speaker 2: we think they'll be improved, so the Saints or another
37:35
Speaker 2: team that I put a little bit of money on
37:38
Speaker 2: them for worst record, and you can shop around. I
37:40
Speaker 2: saw a couple seventeen to ones eighteen to ones on
37:43
Speaker 2: them have the worst record, and it's just because of that.
37:45
Speaker 2: Where again I hate the bad amount Derek Carr because
37:48
Speaker 2: I think he got a raw deal overall in his career,
37:51
Speaker 2: but we've seen him just be so inconsistent. Every time
37:53
Speaker 2: he has to learn a new offense, he regresses. And
37:56
Speaker 2: right now it's looking that way that they're going to
37:57
Speaker 2: be installing a whole new offense. And Chad talked about
38:01
Speaker 2: it like the biggest the elephant in the room is
38:03
Speaker 2: the head coach. And I knew he was bad, right.
38:07
Speaker 2: I think historically Evan tells us every week he is
38:09
Speaker 2: the worst head coach in the history of NFL against
38:12
Speaker 2: the side.
38:12
Speaker 1: To give you the stat, he give me the stat
38:14
Speaker 1: in his career twenty four and forty six straight up.
38:18
Speaker 1: That's worst among all active head coaches. In just five
38:23
Speaker 1: years and seventy games of coaching, Allen is twenty two
38:28
Speaker 1: games below five hundred. Here is the list of the
38:31
Speaker 1: only coaches since two thousand and two realignment to have
38:35
Speaker 1: seventy games or less under their belt and be twenty
38:39
Speaker 1: two games below five hundred. Dennis Allen, Frick Schrmer, Hugh Jackson,
38:47
Speaker 1: Steve Spagnolo, and Gus Bradley. He's a historically bad coach.
38:53
Speaker 1: It just is. There's no name, one thing that Dennis
38:56
Speaker 1: Allen brings to the table as a coach that would
39:01
Speaker 1: get fans excited, that would scare teams, like, you know
39:04
Speaker 1: you've got something when you're going against Kyle Shanahan, you
39:07
Speaker 1: know you got something. You hit Sean mcflay, Sean McVay,
39:09
Speaker 1: Matt with floor right, Mike Tomlin, you know you got something, all.
39:15
Speaker 2: Right, hit that horn, baby, let's dance.
39:18
Speaker 1: John Harbaugh, you know you got something. No one's thinking
39:22
Speaker 1: I got it out of scheme Dennis Allen.
39:24
Speaker 2: And go listen to some of his interviews. He he
39:27
Speaker 2: is awful at interviews, and he says things that you
39:30
Speaker 2: just you put your hands in your your head in
39:31
Speaker 2: your hand, You're just what is this guy even talking about?
39:33
Speaker 2: So I'm right there with Chad, and then the big
39:37
Speaker 2: sens that got to me was we talked about the
39:39
Speaker 2: luck rankings and the luck wins. We kind of narrowed
39:43
Speaker 2: in that like Tomlin, people are perceiving him as lucky,
39:46
Speaker 2: and it's like, no, you kind of can see that
39:48
Speaker 2: he's a great coach. That's why he's going over his
39:51
Speaker 2: win total and getting more wins than people are projected
39:54
Speaker 2: because he's Dennis Allen. That team should have had eleven
39:57
Speaker 2: wins last year, like wrapped aheads around how crazy that is.
40:01
Speaker 2: But it's like this man took two wins away from
40:05
Speaker 2: this team. That's how bad he was being a head coach.
40:07
Speaker 2: And you know, again their owner, there are another team.
40:10
Speaker 2: Their ownership to me is to blame for everything that's
40:12
Speaker 2: gone wrong with this team. Like they've totally fallen ASoP
40:14
Speaker 2: at the wheel since they won the Super Bowl years ago.
40:17
Speaker 2: They leaned on having a Hall of Fame quarterback and
40:19
Speaker 2: Hall of Fame head coach, and like I said, this
40:22
Speaker 2: is the remnants of it, Like it's just it's a
40:24
Speaker 2: dying empire. There's like all it's just tons of trash
40:28
Speaker 2: left over, Like there's just nothing left really good here.
40:30
Speaker 2: And they feel like a classic team that's gonna be
40:33
Speaker 2: rebuilding for five eight years until they find the next
40:36
Speaker 2: quarterback and then kind of start building around him. It's
40:38
Speaker 2: just it's just really bad right now. So I'm shocked
40:42
Speaker 2: to say that, but yeah, you got to go the
40:44
Speaker 2: under at seven and a half.
40:46
Speaker 1: To bring it full circle. You talked a little bit
40:48
Speaker 1: about Derek Carr and his struggles. Derek Carr is five
40:52
Speaker 1: hundred against the spread or worse as a favorite in
40:57
Speaker 1: seven straight seasons since two thousand seventeen, again from Evan
41:01
Speaker 1: Abrams forty six sixty two and three against the spread.
41:05
Speaker 1: Since his first season in the NFL twenty fourteen, He's
41:09
Speaker 1: ranked one hundred and sixty fifth of one hundred and
41:14
Speaker 1: sixty six quarterbacks as a favorite. He's ahead of one
41:20
Speaker 1: player who is worse as a quarterback one hundred and
41:26
Speaker 1: sixty six out of one hundred and sixty six. But
41:31
Speaker 1: we just mentioned him in this podcast as David Carr Nope,
41:37
Speaker 1: as the definition of uninspiring, high volume yardage playing in
41:44
Speaker 1: the in a in a quiet, quiet stadium where nobody cares.
41:50
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan, Matt Ryan. But this is this is why
41:54
Speaker 2: I do defend Derek Carr. Go look at who's been
41:58
Speaker 2: his head coach and has had coaches in his career.
42:01
Speaker 2: He went from a Gruden to Josh McDaniels to a
42:04
Speaker 2: freaking Dennis Allen like talk about just getting screwed in
42:07
Speaker 2: your career with bad coaching, like all those guys. I mean,
42:11
Speaker 2: you can say, well John Gruden used to be great, yeah,
42:14
Speaker 2: twenty years ago. Like, I mean, that guy totally destroyed
42:18
Speaker 2: that Oakland Raiders organization on his way out. So that's
42:21
Speaker 2: the thing with Derek Carr. It's like, you know, when
42:23
Speaker 2: he had Jack del Rio in his early years, he
42:25
Speaker 2: was you know, if he didn't break his arm or
42:27
Speaker 2: whatever he did break, he almost won an MVP. I mean,
42:30
Speaker 2: like he did have flashes and early in his career,
42:33
Speaker 2: but those days are long long gone. So I'm not
42:36
Speaker 2: gonna let my emotions get the best of me, Chad,
42:38
Speaker 2: which is hard to do. But this this is an
42:40
Speaker 2: underteam right now, our favorite team by far. I mean
42:43
Speaker 2: it's clear to anyone listen to the show, it's gotta
42:45
Speaker 2: be the Panthers. It's the most value in the division.
42:47
Speaker 2: That to me and Chad, this division seems like it's
42:50
Speaker 2: up for grabs rather than minus one twenty, which is
42:53
Speaker 2: what the Falcons are viewed as.
42:55
Speaker 1: If you're new to this show, every week we will
42:58
Speaker 1: ask you to do something so disgusting that defies all
43:03
Speaker 1: conventional wisdom. Welcome to it. Hold on to the handrail.
43:08
Speaker 1: It's going to be a roller coaster. I promise you
43:11
Speaker 1: at the end of the year, you're gonna feel so satisfied.
43:15
Speaker 1: It's going to be great. Like Simon said, we like
43:19
Speaker 1: I'm just looking at my notes here. We like the
43:22
Speaker 1: Panthers over four and a half in this division. We
43:25
Speaker 1: like the Panthers for a little taste eleven to one
43:28
Speaker 1: to win the division. Everything else, it's like kind of
43:32
Speaker 1: a past little little time bites of unders, little bites
43:37
Speaker 1: of unders on the Falcons, on the Bucks, and on
43:40
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast
43:45
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