Latest / Out of Bounds with Bo Bounds / Hour 5 Live with Dave Bartoo from Pearl River Resort: We continue with the win totals & take a look at the Texas Longhorns and Alabama Crims

Transcript

Hour 5 Live with Dave Bartoo from Pearl River Resort: We continue with the win totals & take a look at the Texas Longhorns and Alabama Crims · Out of Bounds with Bo Bounds

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: W k S Pickens Jack live from the Whiskey sixty
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: one miles inside them Bank Plus Studio. We're bound streaming
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: live worldwide on the out of Bounds Radio and on
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: your radio at ESPN one oh five point nine The Zone.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Hey, Hey, good morning, out of Bounds ESPN one oh
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: five nine The Zone. We will take a look at
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: the Texas Longhorns schedule and Ole Miss and Mississippi State
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: will play Jackson Meadows favorite coach Steve Sarkeesian and the
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Texas Longhorns and arch Manning this year. As we take
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: a look at the Texas Longhorns schedule, it is brought
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: to you by IE Care Professionals if you need Lasik surgery,
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  Speaker 2: I Care Professionals, Day bar two on the show Real Quick,
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: We have a listener. Right second, we had a listener,
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: bo Can you give my dad a shout out?
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: Please?
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: Today is his birthday. He loves the show. His name
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: is Neil Franklin. He's fifty six years old today, July
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: twenty second. All right, Neil, thank you for listening to
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: the show. Happy birthday, my man. I hope you have
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: a great birthday and birthday week day. Bar two talking
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Texas Longhorns. If you've got a question, ask Bar two
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: on the text line six oh one eight eight five
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  Speaker 2: three seven seven six Bar two, you have the floor
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: on the long horn.
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we got the Well, we should start with some
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: drops for meadows now that we now that he's discovered
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: sarking it, right, sort right.
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: So what's what should the drop be?
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: Is like, so when you when when you're in the
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: middle of the season, he's got to have a buddy, it's.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: Like, oh, they totally sarked it. We can cut out
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: what you just said and we will. You just became
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: another drop. I sarked it, all right, I love it.
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: Here comes the sark.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he doesn't like sark or Texas, and I don't
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: even think he likes arch Manning. All right, tell me
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: what they're gonna I got this. I think this is
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: a big uh.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: I don't care either way. But I'd love for them
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: to melt down or go twelve and zero. So you'd
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: just give me something.
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: Big, right hot or cold? Right? Born? I mean where where? Well,
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: let's let people are talking about can we go six
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: and six like Mississippi State? I mean that's milk toast.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: So what Texas?
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: Look?
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: They want to have a big year. They had a
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  Speaker 3: disappointing year last year.
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: They talked they did. But let's let's let's look at
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: Steve as a whole.
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: Okay, okay, Washington twenty ten, first time he is head coach. Okay, okay,
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: negative coach effect year one, okay, year two, negative, year three, negative,
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: year four negative. He was at Washington for four years
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: and underperformed the talent. Every single year USC hires him.
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: What did we talk about? Hiring negative coach effect guys
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: to be good usually doesn't work USC negative USC twenty fifteen, negative,
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: Texas twenty twenty one, minus three games, all right, they
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: were six and six. Don't tell me Steve doesn't have
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: a six and six in him. He's already done it
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: at Texas twenty twenty two. He went six and six
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  Speaker 3: at Texas in year one. Yeah, my god, I could
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  Speaker 3: do that in the big twelve, sip it on Elijah
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: Craig bourbon and just talking to people about nothing. On
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  Speaker 3: that six. We're not sipping bourbon. We're not sipping Elijah
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  Speaker 3: Craig at six and six. We are hammering that down.
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: Twenty twenty two still minus one game. Okay, okay, So
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  Speaker 3: we went eight straight seasons negative coach effects. Then twenty
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: twenty three hit twelve and eleven. Yeah, best season he's
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  Speaker 3: ever had, plus two and a half games. Twenty twenty
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  Speaker 3: four eleven and two, twenty twenty five, nine and three.
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  Speaker 3: Kind of get the feeling we're going a certain direction. Yeah, right,
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  Speaker 3: I feel like twelve eleven, nine feels like eight could
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  Speaker 3: be right there. Oh could you imagine eight not even
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  Speaker 3: in the top twenty five, They would actually raise a
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  Speaker 3: little hell there.
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  Speaker 4: Oh no, they do more than that. They would do
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  Speaker 4: more than that.
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  Speaker 3: So his entire coach effect now this Now keep in mind,
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  Speaker 3: he was just underperforming teams barely year over year at
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: Washington and USC. They were never any bad bad seasons.
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  Speaker 3: But so twenty twenty three and twenty two, twenty four,
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  Speaker 3: twenty twenty five, those pulled him up. His career average
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  Speaker 3: is basically zero Okay, his entire career. You take all
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: of his career, put it together in one number, and
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  Speaker 3: he is Webster's dictionary of an average head coach. Okay, okay,
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  Speaker 3: So since twenty ten, his coach effect is one hundred
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  Speaker 3: and forty three out of two hundred and seventy two
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  Speaker 3: right and well and two seventy two dead middle is
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  Speaker 3: one thirty six right, so he is won forty three.
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  Speaker 3: He is literally right on the middle of it, right,
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  Speaker 3: and his career war is only plus twenty eight, and
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: that's after nearly a dozen years in head coaching.
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: Kirby's is born double his.
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  Speaker 3: So so with Steve, it says, with the with the
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: Longhorn talent, the Longhorn schedule average wins eight point six.
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: The market line is nine point five, but because of
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  Speaker 3: his coach effect, his projection most likely outcome is nine
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  Speaker 3: point one wins, nine and three twenty seven percent. Okay,
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  Speaker 3: ten and two is the next best one at twenty
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  Speaker 3: four percent, right. And then then now that's a playoff team, right,
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  Speaker 3: So it's it's It's basically saying twenty four thirteen thirteen
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  Speaker 3: percent chance for eleven and one three percent chance for
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  Speaker 3: twelve and oh, Okay. So you add all that stuff
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  Speaker 3: up and you have forty percent chance of making the playoffs,
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  Speaker 3: sixty percent chances. I don't think they make the playoffs.
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  Speaker 2: I could see them going nine to three, but I'm
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  Speaker 2: looking at their schedule right now. I don't see them
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  Speaker 2: making the playoffs.
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  Speaker 4: Where's the emotional letdown for them? Do they have it?
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  Speaker 4: They have traps anywhere?
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  Speaker 3: Well?
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  Speaker 2: They have Ohio State Week two at home. Okay, Week four,
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  Speaker 2: they go to Tennessee. I think that'll be a brutal
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  Speaker 2: game with hypel. They play Oklahoma on a neutral field,
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  Speaker 2: They play Florida at home, Ole Miss at home, Mississippi
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  Speaker 2: State at home, at Missouri at LSU, Arkansas at home
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  Speaker 2: at A and M.
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  Speaker 3: This is not an easy schedule. No, no, it's not.
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  Speaker 3: And that's why it says an average coach with this talent,
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  Speaker 3: this is top ten talent, right right, they have everything
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  Speaker 3: they need. Yeah, average coach wins eight and a half games,
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  Speaker 3: So nine and three average coach is even going to
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  Speaker 3: I don't. I would bet more that he's going to
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  Speaker 3: go eight and four, nine and three, right, Okay, So
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  Speaker 3: and the market line's nine and a half. So what
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: you'd love to be at is under ten. That's right,
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  Speaker 3: because then eleven and one is the only thing to
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  Speaker 3: beat you twelve and zero. And sark doesn't do that, right,
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  Speaker 3: you know, I think he caught lightning in a bottle
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: for a couple of years. But keep in mind, the
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: offensive scoring efficiency in Austin has slipped for three consecutive seasons.
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  Speaker 3: Pee Kayakowski held that thing up. The defense was there
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  Speaker 3: to top twenty, top fifteen every single year and then
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  Speaker 3: but for some reason the defense was the problem. And
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  Speaker 3: you throw out Pete Kayakowski and bring in a lesser
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  Speaker 3: defensive coordinator. So you have a defensive coordinator, significant downgrade
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  Speaker 3: on the defensive side of the football in an offensive
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  Speaker 3: oriented conference with a offense that has been sliding for
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  Speaker 3: three consecutive years. Now we have a returning quarterback, that's right.
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  Speaker 3: I expect arts to be better. Last year was his
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  Speaker 3: first year to start, it was. And it doesn't matter
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  Speaker 3: who the name is, right, If bo Bounds is the
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  Speaker 3: returning quarterback at Texas and Steve Sarkizan's calling the places,
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  Speaker 3: that guy should be awesome, he should be awesome.
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  Speaker 4: Rite anything less than that. They got talent.
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  Speaker 2: They went and got the number one wide receiver transfer
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  Speaker 2: out of the portal from Auburn and cam Coleman.
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  Speaker 3: Uh they you know they he visited.
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  Speaker 2: Alabama and Alabama thought he had it done, they had
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  Speaker 2: it done, and and then he went to Texas.
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  Speaker 4: And yeah, so they gave more money.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, cool, whatever, he is eight, I mean they have
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  Speaker 2: they have other guys like him.
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  Speaker 3: He is talented. Yeah, Arch will be better, no doubt.
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  Speaker 3: But but but to me, the bottom line is Steve
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  Speaker 3: is a really good play caller, sure, right, National championship
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  Speaker 3: level play caller. Right. He's been an average head coach
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  Speaker 3: for his entire season, and like I said, he sarks
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  Speaker 3: it more often than not. So I expect if we
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  Speaker 3: add in the sark factor, you and I lean nine
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  Speaker 3: and three, not ten and two in the playoffs.
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  Speaker 2: And would not be surprised if he starts if he
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  Speaker 2: goes eight and four, exactly.
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  Speaker 3: So, I honestly would be surprised if he goes eight
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  Speaker 3: and four. But I lean towards nine and three more
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  Speaker 3: than I lean.
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  Speaker 2: Towards I'll say this part too. We gotta go, I mean,
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  Speaker 2: we can come back. He's got two brutal games in
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  Speaker 2: the first four games. Ohio stayed at home at Tennessee week.
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  Speaker 3: Four, right, and if he loses the aisle State at home, mentally,
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  Speaker 3: they're gonna be screwed going into Tennessee. That's right.
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  Speaker 4: And Josh is going to run up and down the
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  Speaker 4: field on him.
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: That's right.
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: That segment was brought to you by an ice cold
• 9:45
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• 9:49
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• 9:54
  Speaker 2: one oh five nine.
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: The Zone. Let's do this again.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: We may as well out of bounds ESPN one oh
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  Speaker 2: All right, bo bound State Bar two, Jackson Meadows one
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: oh five nine.
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  Speaker 3: The zone. Let back, no fair catches on this show. Baby,
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  Speaker 2: Powered by Dancing Rabbit Golf Club and the Vegas Style
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• 11:14
  Speaker 2: Let's take a look at the Alabama schedule, brought to
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: you by the leaders in cataract surgery in Mississippi I
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  Speaker 2: Care Professionals and doctor Kirk Jeffries and the team on
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: Lakeland Drive Alabama Crimson Tide Kaylen de boor.
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: Kaylin de boor Well, let's look at Kaylen de Bor's seasons,
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: real quick inside coach effect, all right, because we just
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: hit Sark and we hit Kirby and showed you how
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: diametrically opposed their careers have been in terms of performance
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: with talent.
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: Uh Calen in the FBS.
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: His first year at Presno State was his worst year,
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: which was basically even coach effect. Now that was twenty
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: twenty and Presdo went three and three, So take it
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: as you want, COVID whatever. Right, So twenty twenty one
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: plus three games, twenty twenty two plus two two point
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: seventy five three plus six when they made the thirteen
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: and oh playoff run, one of the best seasons per
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: talent in all of college football. In fact, Washington owns
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: two of the most amazing seasons ever. Washington Chris Peterson
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: into boor No, No, the most amazing season in college
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: football in my life, and I don't think I'll ever
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: see it again. Indiana was Washington. Indiana. Actually, Indiana's probably
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: more amazing now. But Washington as a top twenty five
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: recruiter going on to twelve is glorious. Ty Willingham, Yep,
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: all right, so go ahead, Oh in twelve, do you
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: know how hard you have to work to go? Oh?
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: And twelve? He went to and ten. Could you imagine
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: Missouri going on to twelve? No, South Carolina going on
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: to twelve? No, they did it. South Carolina did it
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: one hundred years ago. Yeah, well with Lou Holtz or
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: Sparky Woods something. Anyways, So Alabama year one uh plus
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: point seven, last year plus plus one point five sevens okay, right,
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: So we got a career, we got a career. Play
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: in the words, the guy's a machine positive coach, he is,
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: and he's done it at multiple places. I'm Fresnel, Washington, Bama,
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: and I know Bama fans going it's never been positive.
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: We're not thirteen and nor like, oh my god, you
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: know something, Remember Nick quit because Nick couldn't do what
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: Nick used to do. That's right, that's exactly right. He
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: forced himself and I literally forced Nick out of being
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: Nick and he said, Nope, can't do it.
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: Nick couldn't live up to what he did before. And
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: that's never coming back. No, anybody, We are never seeing
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: Alabama running or any name running that long because nobody
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: has that money and that player evaluation to sustain it
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: for that long. No, you can't, right, so to boor
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: Alabama's schedule. When we look at coach effect right now,
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: this is I was. I was actually really amazed. The
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: win total for Alabama is eight and a half. That's
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: the betting line at minus one twenty. So it's implying
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: a fifty four percent odds that they are nine and
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: three or better. Nine and three are better My my numbers, Uh,
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: the implied odds are let's see here, thirteen eighteen, nineteen
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: seventy nine, No, eighty one percent odds nine and three
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: are better. So either the books know something we don't know.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: I absolutely believe that they will go nine and three
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: are better, right, And there is a phenomenal path here
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: to go ten and two.
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: Right, and that's actually the number one. So in my
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: projection in the computer projections with his coach effect and
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: that schedule, Okay, thirty percent odds on ten and two,
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: that's his number one odds. His number two odds are
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: nine and three twenty four percent and eleven and one
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: at twenty one percent.
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: Wow, right, and so.
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: Be over twenty percent to possibly go eleven and one.
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: That's impressive going on and under feed it is that
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: as at six point four percent. Okay, okay, So let's
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: just you know, twelve and oho is just dumb to
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: really think that.
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: You know, when it happens, it's a miracle. You should
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: really appreciate it. You know. I am team storm the field.
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: Never act like you've been there because football gods giveth
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: and they take it away. So never never act like
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: you've been there before, because you may never get back
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: there again. Enjoy it. So with with Alabama, we have it.
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: We have a line. We have a betting line of
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: eight and a half. We have a projection most likely
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: projection of ten and two, So we got a game
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: and a half spread.
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: Again, I'd love to.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: Be at eight and four because seven and five eight
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: beating me right, dude, they're going ten and two, not
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: going seven and five. I mean they got a brutal
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: road game. I mean they got a brutal home game
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: against Georgia.
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: Sure, what's after Georgia though?
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: At Tennessee?
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: Okay, there's your A and M A.
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: That three game stretch of Georgia at home at Tennessee
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: A and M at home is when they're going to
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: have to have there, you know what.
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the more I look at it, Okay, the more
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: I look at all of this stuff, the more I
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: start to believe. Now, you and I talked about nine
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: games was just dumb. We've set it for nearly a decade.
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: Don't do it. Let everybody come down to eight. There's
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: massive advantages at eight. But everybody's focus on how difficult
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: the schedule is when they look at the teams they're playing.
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: But I think what is really even more important, or
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: at least equally important, is the psychological impact of these games. Right,
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: there's there's not If you lose to Georgia, if you're Alabama,
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: you lose to Georgia, Now you have to get up mentally,
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: emotionally for Tennessee. And you got to get up mentally
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: and emotionally for A and A and M right. Look
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: at old miss right, you got to if you're not,
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: if you don't get up mentally and emotionally for Jeff Brohm,
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: he can beat you right right. I say, the game's
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: more of a coin flip. I'll take the plus seven
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: plus six and a half. But emotionally that's a hard
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: game to get up to. Why because now LSU is
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: in week three. You never had with LSU in week three.
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: It was always in week ten nine. You know, your
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: big games were scattered. You'd have one in October, a
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: couple in October, couple November, and it was the mental
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: pressure was back weighted. Now like with the old miss one,
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: your mental pressure is week one. It front letted, right,
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: And so it's not just the difficulty of what you're playing.
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: It is the mental exercise of focusing on one game
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: at a time, and when you lose is not getting
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: too far down, and when you win, don't get too
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: far up.
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: And overlook anybody. So anyway, that is Alabama we're gonna
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: lean over. Hell, yeah, we're gonna leave it over. The eight.
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: We project them into the playoffs at ten and two
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: as the most likely number but nine and three is
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: still in play.
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: Neither one of us would be We would both be
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: shot for this team to be outside the top twenty
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: five at the end of the season.
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: Right now. The one thing they have a new quarterback, Yes,
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: they have a new quarterback. They got a returning in
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: d C. They've got a returning OC so they have
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: stability there. Right.
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: They do have a new quarterback coming in.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: They believe they're going to have their best defense in
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: the last few years. But the I think it's Keelan
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: Russell and Austin Mack or something are competing for the
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: quarterback position and one's older but has never played, and
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: the other one's a new dude, so that's you know,
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: but he gets East Carolina to start off at Kentucky,
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: Florida State at home, South Carolina at home at Mississippi State.
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: I mean they should be five and zero hosting Georgia
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: and healthy right that week sixth Georgia, though, it's going.
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: To be a that is it is, that's just.
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: Delicious right now, right.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: Big time game there, October tenth, and it may be
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: the game of October.
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, real quick, though, I know we're not going to
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: get through everybody today, right right, so Patreon. Subscribe to
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: your Patreon account. Yep, subscribe to my Patreon account. Patreon,
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: look up CFB matrix. I will profile every single team
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: like this. All the power forwards. If you're enjoying what
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: we're doing and I'm having a blast here, I hope
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: you're having as much fun with me and BO as
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: I am talking about all this stuff.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: Subscribe to bar Two's Patreon account at CFB matrix and
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: volume on Twitter.
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: Back to second