Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Lyn Alden & Preston Pysh | Explaining Bitcoin's Recent Price Run | Simply Bitcoin IRL

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Lyn Alden & Preston Pysh | Explaining Bitcoin's Recent Price Run | Simply Bitcoin IRL · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:04
  Hello everybody, Welcome to another episode of Simply
• 0:07
  Bitcoin IRL. I'm streaming live from
• 0:09
  backstage at Unconfiscatable in Las Vegas, NV.
• 0:12
  Got this set up in the nook of time for this interview, so I'm
• 0:15
  really looking forward to it. Before I bring up our special
• 0:19
  guest for today, I do want to give a shout out to the Bitcoin
• 0:21
  company that makes this show possible.
• 0:23
  Swan Bitcoin. It's the best, it's the best
• 0:25
  place to build your Bitcoin stack.
• 0:27
  It's being built by Bitcoiners. It's for Bitcoiners.
• 0:30
  If you haven't already done so, check out Swan bitcoin.com
• 0:33
  today. All right, so let's bring up our
• 0:35
  very, very special guests. They they don't need
• 0:38
  introductions, but I had the honor to introduce them both at
• 0:44
  Pacific Bitcoin, and that was really great.
• 0:47
  And I snuck in a little joke in there, and I said that Lynn
• 0:51
  Alden is a legendary memer. And what I heard from the crowd
• 0:56
  is that there was a little chuckle.
• 0:58
  So I was very, very happy. I got to make Lynn laugh.
• 1:02
  Guys, thank you so much for joining us today.
• 1:05
  Happy to be here. She is.
• 1:07
  She's Lynn's amazing, Lynn's amazing, but but she's very
• 1:11
  like, low key about it. Like it's very low key.
• 1:13
  Drop drops it when it's when it's necessary.
• 1:16
  So glad guys. I'm so happy that you guys
• 1:18
  joined the show today because there's been ridiculous price
• 1:22
  action over the last couple of days to the point where I'm just
• 1:26
  like, could you stop going up so high?
• 1:27
  I'm still trying to stack Bitcoin.
• 1:29
  So Lynn, what's your take on all this?
• 1:32
  This is this is a pretty unprecedented run up.
• 1:36
  Yeah, I mean, Bitcoin tends to have these moments where it goes
• 1:38
  up sharp than anybody thinks and it goes down sharper than
• 1:41
  anybody thinks. And so when you have such a
• 1:43
  inflexible supply, when you have such tightly held supply, when a
• 1:48
  lot of it's not even on exchanges, even a lot of the
• 1:50
  coins on exchanges are for people that are not even
• 1:53
  actively trading, they just leave some of their coins there.
• 1:55
  And so the amount that's pretty liquid is actually not that big.
• 1:58
  And so when a significant amount of capital wants to come in that
• 2:02
  can move the price very quickly And you know I I track a couple
• 2:05
  things and obviously the the ETF news is, is you know probably
• 2:09
  being constructive towards it, the upcoming halving.
• 2:13
  But another thing I track is that Bitcoin price correlates
• 2:16
  very heavily with global liquidity.
• 2:18
  There's different ways to measure global liquidity.
• 2:20
  I like to use simply global broad money supply M2 in dollar
• 2:26
  denominated terms. And so it's basically it either
• 2:29
  goes up because credit and money printing are happening or
• 2:33
  because the dollar is weakening compared to other major
• 2:35
  currencies. And there's you know,
• 2:37
  historically when that's going up, usually Bitcoin's doing
• 2:39
  pretty well. When that's going down, usually
• 2:41
  Bitcoin's you know, struggling for a period of time.
• 2:44
  And so all these factors together have been pretty
• 2:46
  constructive for for Bitcoin and it's just been a long long bear
• 2:51
  market. A lot of the coins have rotated
• 2:53
  towards very strong hands and so it only takes a small amount of
• 2:56
  new demand to move the price pretty disproportionately.
• 3:01
  Gotcha, gotcha. So Preston, what's your take on,
• 3:05
  you know, these last couple of days have been literally, I
• 3:09
  think this was the, I, I saw a tweet a a a couple days ago
• 3:13
  where this is the first time since 2017 that we've seen 8
• 3:18
  consecutive weeks of green candles.
• 3:22
  That's a very long time that that didn't happen last cycle.
• 3:25
  So, Preston, what's your take? Yeah.
• 3:28
  I think something that people need to really kind of
• 3:31
  appreciate is is as we go into yet another cycle, people that
• 3:36
  were here in the first and second cycle who have a
• 3:39
  significant number of the coins, their conviction in this
• 3:43
  upcoming cycle isn't just stronger or like twice as
• 3:47
  strong, it might be 100 times stronger.
• 3:51
  And that conviction is something that for people that are maybe
• 3:55
  watching from the outside, they cannot even comprehend why a
• 3:59
  person has that much conviction and and why they're watching the
• 4:02
  price move, call it 5000 or whatever.
• 4:06
  I mean, it was down at 26. So it's even more than that.
• 4:10
  People with a lot of conviction are looking at this and they're
• 4:12
  saying, OK, well, I guess it's just getting started.
• 4:15
  We're in another cycle. This thing could go to a hundred
• 4:19
  500,000 and it's it's just like, OK, that's what it does.
• 4:22
  And my basis is in the hundreds or five bucks per coin or
• 4:28
  whatever. And those are the people who are
• 4:30
  squatting on a lot of coins. And so they're to Glenn's point.
• 4:35
  If you're coming into this for the first time and you're trying
• 4:37
  to understand why the the price moves like this, it moves like
• 4:42
  this because it's actually scarce.
• 4:44
  Nobody can manipulate it. And the people who hold a lion's
• 4:47
  share of the coins, they're not ever selling them.
• 4:50
  Michael Saylor had a really interesting poll that he that he
• 4:54
  posted on Twitter today and he said how high will BTC need the
• 5:00
  rise before you would consider selling a small portion of your
• 5:03
  Bitcoin. And he had different prices.
• 5:05
  He had 100,250 thousand, 500,000 and a million to never being the
• 5:11
  4th category and 29% of the people that responded to the
• 5:15
  polls said that they would sell some of their Bitcoin at
• 5:18
  100,000. And so for if you're an outsider
• 5:21
  or you're new to this and you're looking at that and you're
• 5:23
  saying all right, so that's going to induce some variants or
• 5:27
  volatility in the price like maybe once we get to 100,000 it
• 5:31
  may and it might do it for the speculators there for a little
• 5:34
  bit. But what I would challenge
• 5:36
  people to really kind of think maybe at at a second derivative
• 5:39
  of that is if you had to take, if you had the market weight,
• 5:44
  those percentages with how many Bitcoin do those people hold?
• 5:49
  I would tell you that the people who are voting for 100,000 that
• 5:52
  they'll sell some other position are people who hold minuscule
• 5:56
  position sizes. And the people who have really
• 6:00
  large position size as far as the outstanding inventory are
• 6:02
  the ones that are saying a million or never.
• 6:05
  And So what do you think's going to drive the price?
• 6:08
  The price is going to be driven by these deeply convicted.
• 6:11
  I'm not selling these coins until I can, you know buy some
• 6:14
  equity at like APE of five and they're denominating Bitcoin on
• 6:17
  their balance sheet type people because they know what they own.
• 6:20
  So long winded answer, but so maybe just a little bit
• 6:23
  different angle than what Lynn said.
• 6:25
  No and and 100% and I appreciate that answer Preston because so
• 6:31
  like the 8 consecutive green 8 consecutive weeks of of green
• 6:35
  candles it it this is the first time really that supply the the
• 6:40
  Bitcoin supply at 70% of the Bitcoin supply is inactive.
• 6:44
  It's just people are just not willing to part with their
• 6:48
  Bitcoin and that's a record high that's that's never really
• 6:52
  happened before either. So these are some crazy times.
• 6:56
  Anyways I I I do have a a video to to play for you guys and it's
• 7:01
  it's in relation to something that Lynn you covered this in
• 7:05
  great detail and and Preston you wrote an amazing article called
• 7:09
  Bitcoin is anti totalitarianism and you wrote it for Bitcoin
• 7:13
  magazine and it was regarding the basically the way that I see
• 7:18
  it politicians using the legacy corporate media in order to
• 7:23
  attack Bitcoin and I I think there was an escalation today
• 7:26
  Jamie Dimon who was being interviewed by Elizabeth Warren
• 7:30
  I might add he he he had some things to say about the industry
• 7:35
  so I'll play you guys a clip. I've always been deeply opposed
• 7:42
  to crypto Bitcoin etcetera. You pointed out the only true
• 7:46
  use case for it is criminals drug traffickers anti money
• 7:49
  learning tax avoidance. And that is a use case because
• 7:53
  it is somewhat anonymous not fully and because you can move
• 7:56
  money instantaneously and because it doesn't go through as
• 7:59
  you mentioned all these systems have built up over many years.
• 8:02
  Know your customer sanctions OFAC.
• 8:04
  It's didn't get bypass all of that.
• 8:06
  I if I was the government's I'd close it down.
• 8:09
  OK. So like, I mean singing the
• 8:15
  quiet part out loud. Elizabeth Warren.
• 8:16
  And I'm sure you you you ran into this Preston.
• 8:19
  Elizabeth Warren is saying, hey let's let's basically she was
• 8:24
  trying to make the connection that self custody is somehow a
• 8:28
  crime. So I want to get Lynn's take on
• 8:30
  this and then we'll move on to Preston Lynn.
• 8:33
  Does this surprise you at all? No.
• 8:35
  And I tweeted about this earlier.
• 8:37
  It it's really funny because basically the the, the timeline
• 8:41
  today was hilarious. So on one hand, you know, Alex
• 8:44
  Gladstein from the Human Rights Foundation is in Kenya.
• 8:48
  And you know, people are doing a great event there talking about
• 8:51
  how, you know, there's like a Bitcoin movement there, as there
• 8:54
  is in many countries. I mean there's, you know,
• 8:55
  there's a Bitcoin Indonesia conference, right?
• 8:57
  They just had the the Bitcoin Africa, Africa Bitcoin
• 9:00
  Conference in Ghana. This group's now in Kenya, and
• 9:04
  it's this beautiful, colorful image of people talking about
• 9:07
  how Bitcoin gives them hope and allows them to kind of get out
• 9:10
  of this, this like trap that they're in, in terms of like
• 9:12
  constant dilution. You know, Africa has something
• 9:16
  like 40 different currencies. So imagine all the frictions of
• 9:19
  global trade. If you're trying to earn money
• 9:22
  and save money, you're you're just constantly getting diluted
• 9:24
  In many cases. A lot of those countries can
• 9:27
  just freeze your bank account with no rule of law.
• 9:30
  You know that that that kind of thing happens all the time and
• 9:32
  this is like a a very proactive movement.
• 9:35
  And then on the other hand you have, you know, Jamie Dimon
• 9:38
  coming in there and he's sitting there talking about how you know
• 9:41
  this is like this money laundering.
• 9:43
  And like you the the God forbid that people can just move money
• 9:46
  instantly and semi anonymously. And it's like even the picture
• 9:50
  itself is Gray and stuffy and older and it's just, you know,
• 9:53
  this this thing he, he could not be doing better marketing for
• 9:57
  Bitcoin than he's doing right now, in my opinion.
• 10:00
  But yeah, it does show that there are people out there that
• 10:03
  are powerful, that would attack it.
• 10:05
  I mean, this picture is literally Cantillionaire is
• 10:08
  one-on-one, one-on-one. 100% Cantillionaire is trying to
• 10:13
  retain that privilege of being able to create money for free
• 10:16
  that everyone else has to work for.
• 10:18
  Control the money flows. Preston your article was so
• 10:21
  powerful I wanted to read you know the one of the last
• 10:24
  passages of it, and I want to get your thoughts on it.
• 10:27
  You ended the the article with the challenge is formidable, but
• 10:30
  the stakes are too high to remain passive.
• 10:33
  The United States has a choice. Adapt and embrace the
• 10:36
  decentralized future of money, securing our liberties and
• 10:39
  financial leadership, or risk being left behind, tethered to
• 10:42
  outdated systems and eroding freedoms.
• 10:45
  The power of informed, engaged and proactive citizens is our
• 10:48
  greatest asset in this pivotal role.
• 10:51
  Together, we can shape a future that upholds the principles of
• 10:54
  freedom, innovation, and financial sovereignty.
• 10:57
  And then you added a quote by Benjamin Franklin that says
• 11:01
  those who give up essential liberty to purchase a little
• 11:04
  temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.
• 11:08
  So, Preston, what inspired you to write this article?
• 11:12
  What? And I'm sure you're seeing the
• 11:13
  same things that I'm seeing. I'm sure you're seeing the same
• 11:15
  things that Lynn is seeing. So what's your take?
• 11:19
  Frustration is what caused me to to write this.
• 11:23
  I I would say I have a sunk cost bias here in the US because of
• 11:27
  my military service and and I have loved ones.
• 11:32
  I have family that live in the United States and I really don't
• 11:35
  want to have to vote with my feet and go somewhere else.
• 11:37
  So I'm trying to do everything I can to make sure that it's
• 11:39
  successful here in the United States because like I also wrote
• 11:43
  in that article, Bitcoin is going to be successful.
• 11:46
  Whether the United States figures it out, whether whatever
• 11:49
  country in Europe figures out, it does not matter whether your
• 11:53
  country figures it out or not. Bitcoin will be successful.
• 11:56
  And so. But for me it's like well, I'm
• 11:59
  going to, I'm going to at least try to do everything and
• 12:02
  anything I can to help policy makers or people get this right
• 12:06
  as as right as they can and and not be a place that's actually
• 12:09
  pushing innovation into other domains.
• 12:13
  So there's there's really, in my opinion, there's two ways to
• 12:16
  kind of approach this. There's the, the very
• 12:19
  professional and constructive way to approach it, which Lynn
• 12:23
  is probably the best in the business at that.
• 12:25
  And I try to, I try to act that way from time to time.
• 12:29
  The the article that you're kind of quoting there is one and then
• 12:33
  today I published another one that is way more in depth
• 12:39
  particularly pointed at the fence and proposal.
• 12:42
  It's all in my Twitter feed if people want to check it out and
• 12:45
  what it is is it's it's a turnkey way for people to open
• 12:48
  the document go through. I cover in a lot of like
• 12:52
  excruciating detail where the proposal really comes off the
• 12:57
  the rails and effectively is just a a giant violation of your
• 13:03
  rights. Whether we're talking about the
• 13:06
  violation of the 4th Amendment right for unreasonable searches
• 13:09
  and seizures. And I get into all the case law
• 13:11
  that kind of supports that the freedom of speech, which I get
• 13:15
  into all the case law this is that supports that argument.
• 13:19
  Infringements of your rights to financial privacy.
• 13:23
  There you go. There's this is the article
• 13:25
  here. Undermining due process rights
• 13:28
  is is another one. The erosion of your rights to be
• 13:31
  secure and personal information is another one.
• 13:35
  Non discriminatory violations. It goes on and on.
• 13:39
  I could, I could go on all day, unlike all the rights, but it's
• 13:42
  backed up by as much case law as I could conduct research on and
• 13:46
  find. I have it all laid out.
• 13:48
  I have links. Most importantly, I have links
• 13:50
  in it for people to click on. It takes you straight to the
• 13:53
  register for that particular FIN CEN proposal.
• 13:56
  So people can take my work, they can copy and paste it into the
• 14:00
  register and comment because here's, here's the logic on
• 14:05
  this. People look at this and say,
• 14:08
  well, this is this is a losing battle.
• 14:09
  They're going to pass this anyway and they're correct.
• 14:12
  They are going to pass this and they're going to have massive
• 14:14
  breaches of your rights. But on the other side, after
• 14:17
  they pass it, the people that actually will bring the balance
• 14:21
  back or the businesses that have to battle all of this in a court
• 14:25
  system. And if those lawyers have a
• 14:28
  document that's that's in the register before it was passed
• 14:34
  that points out all the violations in nitty gritty
• 14:36
  detail, that lawyer's going to have a lot easier time saying,
• 14:39
  look, look at this spot right here, posted two months before
• 14:43
  this was approved, that says you were violating all of these
• 14:47
  rights. And here's all the
• 14:48
  substantiative you know case law that supports those arguments
• 14:53
  and it and it's going to help those lawyers on the other side
• 14:55
  to get a lot of this overturned or to at least assist in that
• 15:00
  process. So whether it's going to be
• 15:02
  helpful or not that you have to be seen.
• 15:04
  I I tried my hardest along with Lynn and many others from the
• 15:08
  Ego Death team that helped edit this with me.
• 15:12
  And I'm. I'm really excited about.
• 15:14
  I highly encourage people to to look at it.
• 15:16
  And one other thing on this feel free to take my comments and
• 15:20
  pump it into ChatGPT and spin the language into whatever you
• 15:23
  want it to, to represent your voice.
• 15:27
  I would highly encourage people to do that.
• 15:29
  It's it's a document for everybody to use and not just
• 15:32
  something for us to kind of point out and say, oh, this is
• 15:34
  it, that's the answer. Make it your own and really kind
• 15:37
  of take action, 'cause if you don't, well, then you're going
• 15:39
  to get the government that you deserve so oh oh, I'm sorry.
• 15:43
  This was a really long answer. I'm sorry, Lynn, the other thing
• 15:46
  that I wanted to say, so there's two ways to go about this.
• 15:48
  There's the constructive way and then there's the mean way, which
• 15:51
  I guess Lynn is also really good at that as well.
• 15:53
  So if you like, go to my Twitter, I don't know if you
• 15:55
  guys can pull this up quickly, but like, if you go to my
• 15:58
  Twitter and you pull up the media tab on my Twitter, you'll
• 16:01
  see that I have a picture of Jamie Dimon crying.
• 16:04
  And I think that this is also an important way to, you know,
• 16:09
  really kind of, you know, fight back.
• 16:12
  So, like, here's Jamie Dimon on the Hill today.
• 16:15
  Yeah, Scroll down just a little bit.
• 16:16
  There you go. Here's Jamie Dimon.
• 16:18
  He's on the hill today. And he's just crying about like,
• 16:21
  how this isn't fair and how they how if he was the government, he
• 16:26
  would, you know, block this and he would, he would shut it down.
• 16:29
  Well, you know what, Jamie? Go to go to China and ask them
• 16:32
  how they shut it down because they they've already shut it
• 16:34
  down three times. And maybe you can take a play
• 16:36
  out of their playbook. And I think it's important for
• 16:39
  people to fight back for the corruption.
• 16:43
  A company like JP Morgan that paid, I don't know what it was,
• 16:46
  $80 million for the Epstein stuff to not come out like this
• 16:50
  is the guy that's on the hill testifying about how corrupt A
• 16:53
  crypto and Bitcoin is. And you know he he's, he's the
• 16:57
  best marketing person. Like Lynn said he's the best
• 16:59
  marketing person we could have. And and here's a good picture,
• 17:02
  you know, catching him in action.
• 17:05
  Yeah. And and your your, your words
• 17:07
  are very powerful, pressing because as a first generation
• 17:11
  American, my parents originated from Venezuela and Venezuela
• 17:15
  went from one of the wealthiest countries in South America to,
• 17:18
  you know, one of the poorest. You can even call it a failed
• 17:20
  state And it it went down the the the collectivist path to put
• 17:26
  it nicely. And that's something that, you
• 17:29
  know, a lot of people are just they take it for granted in the
• 17:32
  US. They they really do.
• 17:33
  And you know, the 4th Amendment completely trashed no
• 17:37
  unreasonable searches and seizures.
• 17:38
  Patriot Act got completely rid of that.
• 17:40
  You know, and if we don't stand our ground in terms of, you
• 17:45
  know, fighting for the First Amendment, you know, it's things
• 17:48
  could get bad and people don't understand how bad things could
• 17:51
  get. I do want to connect this with
• 17:54
  with with Lynn's book, and it's absolutely incredible.
• 17:58
  So I do want to talk about broken money, and I want to
• 18:00
  connect it to what Preston was just talking about.
• 18:02
  So in Broken Money, in Monetary Systems and Individual Freedom,
• 18:07
  Financial Freedom, your analysis, Lynn and broken Money
• 18:10
  suggests that the currency monetary system impacts
• 18:13
  individual financial liberty and government authority.
• 18:16
  How do you see the balance between individual financial
• 18:19
  autonomy and state control evolving, especially in the
• 18:22
  light of the increasing digitalization of money?
• 18:25
  And I want to start off with that question because I think
• 18:28
  that was the first conversation me and you had one-on-one at
• 18:31
  Pacific Bitcoin 2022 and we were talking about this specific
• 18:34
  subject. Oh, Lynn, you're on mute.
• 18:40
  Lynn, I think you're muted. Sorry about that.
• 18:44
  So first of all, you know presence articles and
• 18:46
  masterpiece people should check it out.
• 18:48
  And you know, in broken money, even though it's a book about
• 18:52
  money and about monetary history past, present and then future
• 18:55
  and kind of informing people all about, you know different types
• 18:57
  of money, there's a whole final part about privacy and about
• 19:02
  human rights and that that intersection between technology
• 19:05
  and human rights. And so there's a reasonable
• 19:07
  question. Why is that in a money book even
• 19:09
  like, you know, a handful of reviews are kind of like, oh, I
• 19:12
  love, like most of it. But why is there, like this
• 19:13
  weird, weird section in there? But I think people that follow
• 19:16
  my work would know why it's in there that basically you can't,
• 19:19
  you can't completely separate money from ethics or money from
• 19:23
  privacy and money from, you know, just just all these other
• 19:26
  topics that are that are relevant.
• 19:29
  And so, you know, part of the discussion, part of, you know
• 19:32
  what can in in some countries slow Bitcoin down is basically
• 19:35
  people begin to view it unethical for one reason or
• 19:37
  another. They listen to Jamie Dimon or
• 19:40
  similar types of people and say OK, that's all for money
• 19:43
  launderers and things like that. So I think it's important to
• 19:45
  kind of counter that and to say, OK, well wait a second, I mean
• 19:49
  why is privacy in and of a self bad?
• 19:52
  Why is being able to self custody and then send money
• 19:54
  quickly bad? Why do we have to go through
• 19:56
  Jamie Dimon's centralized surveilled, you know, Ledger If
• 20:01
  you want to send money or hold money, right, it's it's you
• 20:04
  know. And so that component I think is
• 20:06
  really important. And what what Finsen's trying to
• 20:09
  do here is they're doing their best to try to slow down privacy
• 20:13
  technologies, make it burdensome for any sort of Bitcoin broker,
• 20:17
  Bitcoin exchange to to interact with any sort of any sort of
• 20:22
  even non custodial privacy tools or people that have recently
• 20:26
  used them. And so it's trying to add
• 20:28
  friction for people that are trying to be relatively private
• 20:31
  with their money. And it's not even just privacy
• 20:33
  from the government, It's privacy from corporations.
• 20:36
  If I pull my money out of an exchange and and I, you know,
• 20:39
  spend it on different merchants, I don't necessarily want that
• 20:42
  exchange to see all the things I'm spending it on or, you know,
• 20:46
  it's just it's privacy. It's my money, right.
• 20:48
  And so I think that as this moves forward, I think that's
• 20:52
  privacy is going to be one of the biggest battles, right?
• 20:54
  It's already the case that that's one of the things that
• 20:56
  people actually go to prison for, right?
• 20:58
  Operating a mixer, right, Things like that.
• 21:01
  So, you know, privacy is already kind of the, the biggest kind of
• 21:04
  highest stakes battleground, right?
• 21:07
  So I think, you know, a lot of countries are coming around to
• 21:09
  say, OK, well, you can hold Bitcoin in a ETF, you can hold
• 21:13
  Bitcoin in a registered, you know, big, big like honeypot
• 21:17
  silo that that we have surveillance and control over.
• 21:20
  But what countries don't really like is self custodial Bitcoin,
• 21:23
  private Bitcoin and things like that.
• 21:26
  And so I I think that's going to be an ongoing thing that's not
• 21:30
  going to be resolved anytime soon and there's occasional
• 21:33
  flare ups. And right now what we're seeing
• 21:36
  is a a pretty significant attack by FinCEN.
• 21:39
  And so I think it makes sense to be aware of it, be informed
• 21:42
  about it and do your best to push back against it because
• 21:47
  it's gonna be a long war in my opinion.
• 21:51
  And I mean that hopefully the peaceful sense basically that
• 21:54
  one side can can be aggressive and the other side, you know, we
• 21:58
  have memes, right? We can win the war through
• 22:01
  narrative, we can win the war. And especially in countries like
• 22:05
  the United States that, that still have a pretty good rule of
• 22:08
  law, right? I mean, we saw, for example, the
• 22:09
  SEC in their attempts to block Bitcoin ETFs got absolutely
• 22:13
  smacked down by an appeals court.
• 22:15
  Their arguments were said to be capricious and arbitrary.
• 22:19
  And that kind of thing happens all the time.
• 22:21
  I mean back in the 1990s when Phil Zimmerman, you know
• 22:26
  released open source encryption, the United States government
• 22:29
  went after him. So he published it in a book and
• 22:32
  said well it's you know, it's it's the First Amendment now.
• 22:35
  So kind of come at me Bros and and and they lost as you know
• 22:39
  David B Goliath people like even Adam you know Adam Back and
• 22:42
  others would put like encryption on T-shirts and say this is like
• 22:46
  a dangerous T-shirt. It it's it's like weapons grade
• 22:49
  munitions if you export it right.
• 22:50
  And it shows the logical absurdity of of a certain
• 22:53
  situation and the, you know, one of the modern day formats of
• 22:57
  that is is memes, right. So it's like, you know, you can
• 22:59
  picture like, you know, like a character from from Inglourious
• 23:03
  Basterds like that that Nazi guy.
• 23:05
  And you can write like, you know, are you hiding like 12
• 23:08
  words, right. You're hiding 12 words, aren't
• 23:11
  you? Like you can do, you can do
• 23:12
  various kind of memes to show that beyond a certain point some
• 23:16
  of these rules get utterly silly.
• 23:17
  It it's basically about saying that you're using information
• 23:21
  you're you're you're using code and numbers and words in a way
• 23:25
  that that we don't approve of is ultimately what this comes down
• 23:28
  to. And so in the United States
• 23:30
  rather rather through the humor route, satire route, the court
• 23:33
  jester route, we're basically informing people or pushing back
• 23:37
  on things in funny ways and therefore helping change their
• 23:39
  minds. Or two, you're taking the more
• 23:42
  rigorous approach and saying OK well here's all this case law,
• 23:45
  here's all this precedent, here's the constitution, here's
• 23:48
  this you know other other set of laws that that makes this clear
• 23:52
  overreach and that people do have these rights and and so but
• 23:56
  I do think this is going to be kind of a multi front long term
• 23:59
  issue. I, I, I, I do agree with that
• 24:02
  and just just because of what's at stake, right.
• 24:05
  You know governments get a tremendous amount of power from
• 24:09
  from the current system, you know so it it it's kind of
• 24:12
  common sense that they would they would try to to maintain
• 24:16
  that. So I, I do want to pivot the
• 24:18
  conversation a little bit in regards to macro in regards to
• 24:23
  what's going on because I think a lot of people were expecting a
• 24:28
  you know or this recession it's it's been, it's been coming this
• 24:31
  for said this so-called a recession.
• 24:32
  But if you take a look at the key U.S. economic indicators
• 24:36
  like GDP, the GDP is strong growth, inflation is sharply
• 24:41
  down, trending, trending right full employment and a
• 24:43
  significant number of new jobs added every month.
• 24:46
  Deeper metrics, liquidity levels, consumer spending,
• 24:49
  consumer consumer sentiment, consumer credit, durable goods.
• 24:53
  There seems to be no major cracks in the economy at the
• 24:56
  moment. We seem to be headed into a low
• 24:59
  a lower interest rates and soft landing and Goldilocks scenario.
• 25:03
  Do you agree with this 'cause I don't really see you know the
• 25:08
  the impending doom on the horizon and I'll add like
• 25:11
  another element to this question as a bitcoiner.
• 25:15
  Like, isn't this the case for central banking if they pulled
• 25:19
  off this so-called soft landing? Preston, It seems like I argued
• 25:24
  you with that. No, I I love the question and
• 25:26
  and it's it's a near impossible question to answer and the
• 25:31
  reason that I'm I'm giving you a non answer is because it all
• 25:35
  comes down to the the speed and the magnitude of of how they
• 25:39
  react to this as we continue to March forward.
• 25:43
  I can tell you from looking at the inflation numbers and how
• 25:47
  you're starting to see up ticks in unemployment on the on a
• 25:50
  chart that the the economy is struggling.
• 25:54
  Let me turn that off. Oh my gosh, Lynn's probably
• 25:57
  laughing her tail off. I can't even tell you how many
• 26:01
  discussions I've had with Lynn where that keeps popping up
• 26:05
  anyway. So I got distracted.
• 26:08
  So the thing that I think that makes it really hard is they
• 26:11
  could step in and they could say, hey, we're going to add
• 26:13
  five trillion units here and we're going to flood the market
• 26:15
  in this way and that way. And similar to like what we saw
• 26:19
  with Silicon Valley Bank. And you're just not going to
• 26:21
  have this big giant cascading impairment kind of hit the
• 26:26
  market that that I think people are familiar with when they
• 26:29
  think of like 2008 crisis or what played out very briefly for
• 26:35
  COVID. And I think Covid's the perfect
• 26:37
  example to show you and and everybody listening to this what
• 26:41
  they can actually do by manipulating the monetary units
• 26:45
  in the system. During COVID, we had everybody
• 26:48
  at home, Nobody was was at work, we had oil negative prices, We
• 26:54
  had people not spending money on the roads, They were holed up at
• 26:57
  their house. But yet if you looked at what
• 26:59
  happened in the financial markets in equities in
• 27:02
  particular, they ripped like crazy and quickly and it's
• 27:08
  because of the sheer amount of stimulus that was dropped into
• 27:11
  the into the market through that.
• 27:13
  So when we look at 2024 coming along, I have no idea how
• 27:18
  they're going to respond. I think anybody telling you that
• 27:20
  they do know how they're going to respond with respect to this,
• 27:23
  the speed and the magnitude is just lying to themselves as to
• 27:28
  like what the what it is that they think they know.
• 27:31
  So I can tell you that I I will say this and I'm curious if if
• 27:35
  Lynn would agree or not. Like there are massive
• 27:38
  deflationary pressures building in in the global economy right
• 27:42
  now. Massive like once the reverse
• 27:46
  repo dries up and like if they truly didn't do anything and
• 27:49
  they allowed cascading impairment to occur, like this
• 27:52
  thing could get really nasty. I don't think that they're going
• 27:55
  to do that and but I don't know the magnitude and the pace at
• 27:58
  which they're going to, you know, address it.
• 28:02
  So and and before I pass it on to to Lynn, you you did mention
• 28:06
  the the the reverse repo. So it looks like the government
• 28:10
  took care of the cash crunch but the reverse repo market has gone
• 28:13
  from levels of 2 trillion to a low of 700 and 768 billion
• 28:17
  earlier this week. Just to add to your point, press
• 28:21
  and pass it on to you Lynn it it May.
• 28:23
  Is this potentially A worrying sign in the banking system?
• 28:30
  Is that the press or is that to me?
• 28:32
  That's to you, Lynn. Oh, so you know basically the
• 28:34
  the reverse repo facility, the way to think of that is that
• 28:37
  basically represents excess demand for T-bills.
• 28:40
  And So what the Fed does not want is for there be so much
• 28:43
  demand for T-bills that it pushes T bill yields below the
• 28:46
  lower end of their target short term interest rates.
• 28:48
  And so they have this release valve where money can instead go
• 28:51
  into reverse repo facility and get yields that are similar to
• 28:55
  T-bills and it and it they they hold it at that level to make
• 28:58
  sure that that you know basically there's no reason for
• 29:00
  T-bills to go below the reverse repo facility rate by any
• 29:03
  significant degree. And as part of their kind of
• 29:06
  tightening process and when the treasury issues a ton of
• 29:10
  T-bills, that money can come out of reverse repo and into and
• 29:14
  into T-bills. So reverse repo is one of those
• 29:16
  things where you know in a healthy market environment,
• 29:19
  there really shouldn't even be a reverse repo facility right now.
• 29:22
  It's just kind of this excess pocket of liquidity that was
• 29:24
  built up during the stimulus and now it's kind of coming back
• 29:27
  out. And so it's kind of
• 29:28
  counteracting the Fed QT. The reason it's relevant is
• 29:31
  because after it runs out if the Fed continues doing quantitative
• 29:37
  tightening that'll that'll if you start to come out of bank
• 29:40
  reserves, it'll it'll start to kind of you know kind of reduce
• 29:43
  liquidity in the core banking system and therefore increase
• 29:47
  the odds of some sort of liquidity accident which you
• 29:50
  know if it shows up at the treasury market you'd probably
• 29:52
  have the Fed come in and and stop QTA.
• 29:54
  Similar thing happened back in 2019 with a repo rate spike.
• 29:59
  It wasn't some gigantic event for normal people.
• 30:02
  I mean basically it's one of those like quiet crises that
• 30:04
  that most people don't know of. But if anyone who was like
• 30:06
  following macro or banking at the time was like watching this
• 30:09
  with with interest because you had kind of an interbank
• 30:13
  overnight lending rate just completely blow out and the
• 30:17
  Federal Reserve in addition to addressing that market had to
• 30:20
  come in and start buying Treasuries again because that
• 30:23
  was kind of the core problem. There was a Treasury oversupply
• 30:25
  problem and going back to the prior point of you know soft
• 30:28
  landing versus hard landing. I I've been using the term
• 30:30
  emerging market landing because when you look at like recessions
• 30:35
  in emerging markets they they look pretty different than we
• 30:38
  see in in developed countries. They you know you have an
• 30:43
  environment where you have kind of recession like conditions but
• 30:46
  asset prices and local currency terms are still doing OK because
• 30:50
  the the local currency is pretty running.
• 30:52
  You know, often very large deficits is often inflationary.
• 30:56
  And so you get these weird dichotomies where it it's it's
• 31:00
  like a hot recession, right? It's, it's it's like an an
• 31:02
  inflationary recession, a stagflationary recession.
• 31:05
  And so asset prices and things like that are not doing great in
• 31:09
  you know, dollar terms or gold terms or things like that, but
• 31:12
  they're doing OK in local currency terms because local
• 31:14
  currency is having a problem too.
• 31:16
  And those types of recessions only come up rarely in in
• 31:19
  developed countries. We had it back in the 70s.
• 31:22
  We arguably have it right now and we had it back in like the
• 31:25
  40s. And and those are kind of the
• 31:26
  instances where this pops up. We also see there's a very big
• 31:30
  divergent between fiscal and monetary.
• 31:33
  So monetary like, you know, Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell,
• 31:36
  they're trying to be relatively tight.
• 31:37
  They're trying to hold rates at a high level.
• 31:40
  They're trying to reduce their balance sheet.
• 31:42
  It's largely coming out of reverse repo.
• 31:45
  On the other hand, the the, the the government, you know,
• 31:48
  Congress, president and all these groups, they're running
• 31:51
  very, very large fiscal deficits and it's not even just now, it's
• 31:54
  accumulated from decades past. So a lot of it is just interest
• 31:57
  expense is completely blowing out ironically because the
• 32:00
  Federal Reserve's trying to tighten and fiscal deficits, all
• 32:04
  us being equal, are stimulatory and inflationary.
• 32:08
  And so whether or not we're going towards recession or
• 32:11
  whether or not, you know how the economy is going to look like
• 32:14
  this year, a lot of it is basically what industry or what
• 32:17
  sector you're in because some sectors are already in
• 32:20
  recession. If you're in commercial real
• 32:21
  estate, you're you're in a recession.
• 32:23
  Pretty much. If you were relying on volumes
• 32:27
  of residential home sales, you're in a recession.
• 32:31
  If you're you know, a small business that needs access to
• 32:35
  bank loans, you know those update pretty quickly.
• 32:38
  So higher interest rates, like lower interest rates from loans
• 32:41
  a few years ago are getting rolled into like higher interest
• 32:43
  rates today. They don't have very long
• 32:45
  durations. So a lot of them are pressured.
• 32:48
  On the other hand, if if you're not in an interest rate
• 32:50
  sensitive industry, right, if you're in travel, if you're in
• 32:53
  restaurants, if you're in you know profitable tech companies,
• 32:58
  you might look around and be like what what recession, you
• 33:00
  know this, this kind of past couple weeks had record numbers
• 33:04
  for flights in the United States or flight passengers in the
• 33:08
  United States. And so you know if you're for
• 33:12
  example, if you're a 50 year old upper middle class investor, you
• 33:18
  might have a fixed rate mortgage on your home, you might have a
• 33:21
  large kind of amount of T-bills and money markets.
• 33:24
  You know, let's say you're 50 or 60, you're kind of gearing
• 33:26
  towards the lower volatility type of portfolio.
• 33:28
  At that point, as the Federal Reserve increases interest
• 33:31
  rates, your interest income increases, you're getting more
• 33:34
  money from your money market accounts, you're getting more
• 33:36
  money from your T-bills and you can actually spend more into the
• 33:39
  economy that you're actually being stimulated by the Fed's
• 33:41
  tightening policy because your liabilities, your house and
• 33:45
  your, your fixed rate mortgage are not changing at all.
• 33:48
  The same thing is true for ingressment investment grade
• 33:50
  corporations. You know if you're Google right
• 33:52
  now, you know you have you have very little debt, you have tons
• 33:55
  of cash and now your cash is yielding higher rates.
• 33:59
  So you're actually it's actually always being equal improving
• 34:03
  your bottom line which is you know mildly stimulatory.
• 34:07
  And so we have this kind of weird dichotomy which is that if
• 34:10
  you're primarily relying on short term financing or a lot of
• 34:13
  financing you're you're probably in trouble.
• 34:15
  You're already probably in a recession or at least your
• 34:18
  industry is. And if you're not and if you're
• 34:20
  on the right side of deficits, if you're in the military
• 34:23
  industrial complex, you're if you're just you're kind of in
• 34:25
  your own, if you're on the right side of all this interest
• 34:28
  expense, then you're you're doing OK.
• 34:31
  And so I think that's why the the economy is kind of feeling
• 34:34
  very odd to people because it it's we have a larger gap than
• 34:37
  normal between fiscal policy and monetary policy.
• 34:40
  And so that results in kind of very bifurcated economy and very
• 34:44
  bifurcated markets. Yeah, it's it's interesting time
• 34:47
  to say the least. And you know, specifically from
• 34:50
  speaking from someone millennial generation and the Gen.
• 34:53
  Z, usually the younger generations are, you know, in
• 34:57
  the lower middle classes. They haven't had the time to
• 34:59
  accumulate wealth. You can't afford anything like
• 35:04
  housing is just completely forget about it.
• 35:06
  You know you're not going to own anything.
• 35:08
  Thank God. You know I got into Bitcoin in
• 35:10
  20/16/2017 and provided some type of hope.
• 35:13
  But it's, you know, what are you going to do?
• 35:16
  Like what are people going to do?
• 35:18
  And and I'm sure that you guys saw this clip on Twitter because
• 35:22
  it went viral, but it was Breedlove on Peter McCormack and
• 35:25
  he was talking about essentially the amount of money that they
• 35:30
  printed over the last couple of years was the equivalent of like
• 35:33
  stealing 2 millions, 2 million human lives of productivity and
• 35:39
  just the just the the the absolute time theft.
• 35:42
  So just passing it on to you, Preston, if you wanted to add to
• 35:45
  Lynn's to Lynn's point or or to my point?
• 35:49
  Yeah, No, Lynn's talking about something that I think is is
• 35:52
  really important and and and it's really kind of the
• 35:56
  dislocation of what like where you sit is what you're seeing.
• 36:01
  And you know my response to your to your original question was
• 36:05
  was much more broad and very generic as to like everybody's
• 36:10
  saying there's going to be a recession.
• 36:11
  And and my response was that it's it's going to be
• 36:14
  situational dependent on how fast they add it back in the the
• 36:17
  monetary units back in. But Lynn kind of enhances that
• 36:21
  in in a much better way. Because what she's what she's
• 36:24
  really saying is even if they add it back in that those
• 36:28
  monetary units are going to immediately nest themselves into
• 36:31
  certain industries that are going to benefit from that and
• 36:35
  then most industries aren't going to benefit from it and
• 36:38
  there's going to be a huge recession in in those areas.
• 36:42
  But what normally gets all of the media attention or what we
• 36:45
  talk about on Twitter and in between each other is really
• 36:48
  kind of the broad index or or like the S&P 500 or the OR the
• 36:52
  Dow when we're comparing financial markets.
• 36:56
  And so those are going to rip because those are, those are
• 37:00
  dominated by just a couple companies via market cap.
• 37:04
  And so that that also adds to the confusion is, is you're
• 37:08
  watching the financial news and they're like the markets are up,
• 37:10
  the markets are up. But for people that are that are
• 37:13
  maybe not part of Apple or Google or whatever, for them,
• 37:17
  they're living a very painful life and experience through yet
• 37:21
  another market cycle and they're adding all the stimulus into it
• 37:24
  and they just can't figure out like what is happening.
• 37:26
  Well, her new, her much more nuanced take that goes in there
• 37:30
  and really kind of describes in a whole lot of detail like
• 37:33
  what's going on in each one of these sectors is I think super
• 37:36
  important for people to consider when thinking about like why?
• 37:39
  Why does it look like this and why is it going to continue to
• 37:42
  look like this and and get amplified as we continue on the
• 37:44
  timeline? Gotcha, gotcha.
• 37:47
  So as we're heading into 2024, right and you guys covered the,
• 37:51
  you know the the, the recession topic in in Bitcoin world, the
• 37:57
  future seems very, very bright and if there is a potential
• 38:01
  recession press in, how do you think Bitcoin would perform in
• 38:05
  that environment? It it really depends on how
• 38:10
  ferocious the cascading impairment is.
• 38:14
  So going back to 2020's COVID, they like it was really quick
• 38:20
  because I think the whole world kind of came to this realization
• 38:23
  like, Oh my God, this pandemic is literally shutting down the
• 38:26
  planet. And so all all of this credit,
• 38:30
  all of these assets that everybody thought they knew,
• 38:33
  like where they were at, what kind of cash flows they were
• 38:35
  going to produce was flipped on its head almost overnight.
• 38:38
  And you saw cascading impairment across across the board in this
• 38:42
  credit fractional reserve system that that we currently live in.
• 38:46
  And so because of that speed and the magnitude of that event, we
• 38:51
  saw Bitcoin go from, I don't know where it was at, it was
• 38:54
  probably 10,011 thousand and it sold off sub 4000 for like over
• 38:58
  a 60% decline in days. Do I think that that's going to
• 39:03
  happen this time around? I don't know.
• 39:06
  But if we have a lot of impairment, like a lot of
• 39:09
  magnitude and a lot of speed, it could sell off pretty hard
• 39:13
  because you're comparing it to monetary Fiat units that are
• 39:18
  evaporating and becoming extremely scarce in a in a very
• 39:21
  short period of time. Basically, the dollar's
• 39:25
  aggressively getting bid in a scenario like that.
• 39:28
  But you can rest assured that they have to respond to it.
• 39:32
  They're not going to just replace the monetary units that
• 39:35
  went poof in that scenario. They're going to add more, a lot
• 39:38
  more. And when they do that, you're
• 39:41
  going to see a swift recovery. If that scenario would play out.
• 39:46
  I don't I don't think that's going to play out, but I have
• 39:48
  no, I I would have told you I didn't think COVID could happen,
• 39:51
  you know at the start of the of the new year.
• 39:53
  So you know there's it's really, it's situational dependent, but
• 39:57
  it when you understand how the system functions, you can kind
• 40:00
  of I guess keep a really open mind and a broad array of
• 40:04
  potential outcomes. But the thing I think people can
• 40:06
  really bank on is they're going to print more.
• 40:09
  It's going to be a lot more. The pace is kind of
• 40:12
  questionable. And the way Bitcoin reacts to
• 40:14
  that is, is dependent on how they how they kind of respond to
• 40:17
  a certain extent, not completely, but to a certain
• 40:20
  extent. And same, thank you, Preston,
• 40:22
  same question for you, Lynn. How do you believe Bitcoin will
• 40:27
  behave in a recessionary environment?
• 40:30
  So I think it'll be more about liquidity than the recession.
• 40:32
  There's different types of recessions.
• 40:35
  You know the the some of the recent recessions we've had, so
• 40:38
  the the, you know, the 2020 kind of lockdown crash as well as the
• 40:42
  2008 banking implosion, those types of recessions had this big
• 40:48
  illiquid cascade, right, that basically liquidity dried up,
• 40:54
  the dollar got very strong and pretty much everything,
• 40:56
  everything correlates to one in those scenarios because there's
• 41:00
  all these forced sellers. And one way to think about it,
• 41:02
  especially on the global scale, is that if there is a sharp
• 41:05
  slowdown in economic activity, the debt starts to become a
• 41:09
  problem. So all all these entities have
• 41:12
  debt in the US outside of the US, outside of the US is often
• 41:16
  denominated in dollars, even though it's not even owed to the
• 41:19
  US. Like you know some country in
• 41:21
  Latin America will owe dollars to China or some country in
• 41:24
  Africa will owe dollars to France, for example.
• 41:29
  You know some some entity in Indonesia will own owe money O
• 41:33
  dollars to an entity in Japan. And when this happens, you know
• 41:38
  cash flows dry up, but those debts and those interest
• 41:40
  payments are still due and so that becomes a dollar shortage.
• 41:43
  That becomes like a currency shortage ironically because they
• 41:45
  they're always putting more of it, but you can also have brief
• 41:47
  shortages. And So what happens is basically
• 41:49
  a lot of entities become four sellers of any asset they have.
• 41:53
  And you know, before Bitcoin was around, people would look at
• 41:56
  gold during recessions and often in the very early stage gold
• 41:59
  would sell off. But then once liquidity measures
• 42:01
  came in, gold would recover more quickly than stocks.
• 42:05
  And it ended up being a really kind of good play through that
• 42:08
  cycle with Bitcoin. I I think generally speaking you
• 42:12
  know if you have a specifically a liquidity crisis that's when
• 42:16
  you can get kind of a sharp sell off in in Bitcoin.
• 42:19
  And I think it'd be brief because I think you know that
• 42:21
  liquidity issue would be resolved.
• 42:23
  But not every recession has a big liquidity crunch associated
• 42:27
  with it especially when you look back further and especially when
• 42:29
  you look at certain emerging market recessions you just don't
• 42:33
  really. And and I think, you know, some
• 42:34
  of the some of the recessions that we're going to see in
• 42:36
  developed countries have emerging market characteristics
• 42:39
  just because of how large some of the fiscal deficits are.
• 42:43
  And so, you know, I wouldn't necessarily count on Bitcoin
• 42:47
  going down sharply now, you know, it could go up to 60,000
• 42:51
  and then come back down to 40,000 and then go back up
• 42:55
  again, right. So it's there are people that
• 42:57
  are not buying Bitcoin that weren't buying Bitcoin at 2030
• 43:00
  thousand because they're worried about a correction next year.
• 43:03
  And it's like, well, where does that correction come from?
• 43:06
  You know, does it, does it come down from a level that's twice
• 43:08
  as high as now and still higher than now?
• 43:11
  Does it, does it start 50% higher than now and come back
• 43:13
  down to where it is now? Would we even get a liquidity
• 43:16
  crunch? And so I think that the question
• 43:18
  is less about recession itself, like it's not really directly
• 43:21
  tied to employment in the US, it's not really directly tied to
• 43:24
  you know, just kind of various recessionary measures.
• 43:28
  It's really kind of tied to that liquidity, which is things like
• 43:31
  the dollar index, you know, whether markets are functioning
• 43:35
  with liquid fashion, are there 4 sellers, things like that.
• 43:39
  So I, you know, I, I would incline towards, yeah, you
• 43:42
  probably would have a period of of liquidity shock like if you
• 43:44
  run out of the reverse repo facility and we have a
• 43:47
  significant liquidity shock, you know, Bitcoin might have a a bad
• 43:50
  couple weeks, but I, you know, I'd be a buyer of those dips.
• 43:53
  Interestingly, we saw back in the March 2023 kind of banking
• 43:57
  mini crisis, Bitcoin did really well right away and so did
• 44:02
  assets basically assets all basically immediately said oh
• 44:04
  the Fed's going to have to at liquidity here.
• 44:07
  And so Bitcoin and other assets went up in what otherwise could
• 44:11
  have been a liquidity problem just because they understood how
• 44:13
  fast some of this response time is.
• 44:16
  And so I I generally err on not trying to be to to kind of I I
• 44:21
  think there's going to be there there's periods where people are
• 44:23
  going to get too smart with it and therefore they're not going
• 44:25
  to do well right. The the people that were waiting
• 44:27
  to buy Bitcoin at 12,000 for example are probably never going
• 44:31
  to see 12,000 would be my guess. And you know people that are
• 44:35
  always kind of waiting for the next correction.
• 44:37
  I I think instead the right answer is either either you know
• 44:40
  lump sum and then keep dollar cost averaging or just maintain
• 44:44
  a position size so that if the asset goes down 30% or 50% in
• 44:48
  purchasing power you're not affected.
• 44:50
  Bitcoin really should be capital that you don't need to access
• 44:53
  for five plus years so that you can let the thesis play out.
• 44:58
  And if you position it like that and your position size is not so
• 45:02
  big that you're having sleepless nights because the acid's having
• 45:05
  a correction, then I think, I think you know that that's how I
• 45:09
  play it. And and and just just to kind of
• 45:12
  add to that Lynn, I, I think a lot of the psychology behind the
• 45:18
  people wanting to buy the dip so to speak, I think it comes from
• 45:24
  the unit bias and also which is the theory of the really the
• 45:29
  this cycle and American huddle did a great job tweeting about
• 45:32
  this, which is the theory of diminishing returns.
• 45:36
  What's your take on that, Linda? I saw Preston laugh.
• 45:39
  Maybe I should pass it on to Preston?
• 45:41
  First, it could have Preston, first Preston.
• 45:44
  I I am AI support this stock to FOMO chart and I say that kind
• 45:56
  of jokingly. And I because people who look at
• 46:00
  this and are saying, Oh well, once it gets to a million, I'm
• 46:04
  going to sell and I'm going to take some massive, you know,
• 46:08
  returns they don't. What they're really saying is
• 46:11
  they have no clue what's actually playing out here,
• 46:14
  'cause if this, if if this goes to a million, it's going to 10
• 46:18
  million, it's going to 100 million, it's going to look like
• 46:20
  a Zimbabwe note of 100 trillion units.
• 46:26
  And that's what I think if you think it's just going to go up
• 46:31
  to 500,000 and then it's going to kind of stop there, and
• 46:34
  that's kind of like where it where it ends and like that's
• 46:37
  the end of Bitcoin. It's now, you know, stabilized
• 46:40
  at 500,000. You really do not understand
• 46:42
  like what's playing out here. And and I think the higher that
• 46:47
  you go like that, the more the more aggressive the bid is
• 46:51
  actually going to get and and kind of get away from legacy
• 46:55
  policy makers and people controlling currencies, Fiat
• 47:00
  currencies as as we know them. Now when, when does that happen?
• 47:04
  I don't know when that happens. I don't know if it's this cycle,
• 47:07
  next cycle or whatever, I I don't know.
• 47:10
  But people that are that are suggesting that Bitcoin is going
• 47:14
  to have smaller and smaller returns into the future, I think
• 47:18
  are getting duped a little bit as to like what kind of plays
• 47:22
  out in the middle of that S curve.
• 47:26
  I I think that's what's happening with with those kind
• 47:28
  of ideas and comments. You are extremely bullish,
• 47:32
  Preston. I, I, I, I like that answer.
• 47:35
  Makes me wanna just. Go ahead.
• 47:37
  I I don't see it as being bullish.
• 47:38
  I just I see it as being I'd I'd like to think it's just very
• 47:42
  logical like for for us to go from something that was worth a
• 47:46
  couple pennies to $1,000,000 for an imaginary Mario coin like
• 47:51
  thing that that's just a Ledger entry on a, you know, on a
• 47:54
  global database For somebody that would hear that 5-10 years
• 48:00
  ago, they would have literally laughed you out of the room and
• 48:02
  said there's no way that could happen.
• 48:04
  And then the question you should have asked that person is OK,
• 48:07
  well at what price would you stop laughing and take it very
• 48:10
  serious, which was the actual question that was proposed to
• 48:13
  Andrew Sorkin this week on CNBC. And as you noticed he refused to
• 48:17
  answer the question and and him not answering the question is
• 48:20
  telling you what he actually believes, which is I I don't
• 48:25
  want to be wrong and I don't want to, I don't want to say
• 48:28
  100,000 or 500,000 because in the back of his subconscious
• 48:32
  mind, it's going there. That's why he's not going to
• 48:34
  answer that question. And so once you start getting to
• 48:38
  those levels, what what's really being communicated through the
• 48:42
  money is all trust is breaking down in the legacy monetary
• 48:46
  units, OK, make no mistake about it, that trust is eroding.
• 48:51
  That's why somebody's willing to squat on an imaginary, you know,
• 48:55
  entry in in a million a million a coin price is because they
• 49:02
  they actually have way more trust in that system than the
• 49:04
  legacy system. And if you think that that trust
• 49:06
  is going to kind of like stop or plateau at that point, I don't
• 49:10
  know what to tell you. You, you, I'm sorry, you don't
• 49:12
  understand it like point blank. Yeah, what about you Lynn?
• 49:17
  What's what's your take on the Preston Preston's?
• 49:20
  Preston's put a lot of thought into this, I could tell.
• 49:24
  Lynn, what's your take on this? Are you a believer of the
• 49:27
  diminishing returns or are you a non believer?
• 49:31
  So I think it depends on details.
• 49:32
  Last cycle I, I, I, you know, before the cycle played out,
• 49:36
  when it was when I was kind of recommending it to people in
• 49:38
  2020, I assumed A diminishing cycle.
• 49:42
  And you know because the numbers in that kind of intermediate
• 49:45
  term period I think would be pretty big for that one cycle
• 49:49
  and you know it actually underperformed even my
• 49:51
  diminishing like I I thought we'd hit 100K for example.
• 49:55
  Actually my initial estimate when it was like under 10K was
• 49:58
  like 30 to 50K at least it was like a really conservative one.
• 50:01
  And then we hit that. I was like why?
• 50:03
  I think it's going over 100 and we never really hit that second
• 50:06
  target. You know, we later found out
• 50:08
  that there was a lot of rehypothecation and you know,
• 50:10
  people naked shorting Bitcoin like FTX.
• 50:13
  And you know, there's a lot of things that went into that.
• 50:15
  We also had like the fight the the tightest Federal Reserve
• 50:19
  policy, the most rapid tightening in a very long time
• 50:22
  as they try to fight back against the inflation that they
• 50:24
  they partially caused along with the fiscal authority.
• 50:28
  And so I I did expect diminishing turns last cycle.
• 50:31
  This cycle I'm much less confident that it's going to be
• 50:34
  diminishing returns. I think there's a there's a good
• 50:35
  case we made that this cycle or the next cycle has a surprising
• 50:41
  breakout where there's not diminishing returns and and so
• 50:46
  you know everybody kind of has it in their mind and what's
• 50:47
  going to play out and I think it's going to surprise one way
• 50:50
  or another last time it's surprised to the downside.
• 50:52
  I think this this time could easily surprise to the upside
• 50:55
  and the people that think they're bullish at like 100K or
• 50:57
  200K, UH could get completely shocked by the numbers it hits.
• 51:03
  But then again, maybe not. Maybe if it goes to 150 and then
• 51:05
  maybe it corrects down to half that and then goes up the next
• 51:08
  cycle. There's there's so many, there's
• 51:10
  so many variables that go into these things that I try not to
• 51:13
  give any sort of specific price, any sort of two year time frame.
• 51:16
  You know the the, the statement that I generally have pretty
• 51:18
  high conviction on is that usually Bitcoin does well in
• 51:21
  global liquidity positive environments and usually it
• 51:24
  struggles in in lower liquidity environments.
• 51:26
  That's one of the biggest factors that goes into it.
• 51:29
  But I never really associate a specific magnitude with those
• 51:33
  kind of more directional observations and you know you
• 51:37
  mentioned unit bias. I do think that's one of the
• 51:39
  things that holds people back. You know they see they see
• 51:42
  $40,000 a coin and they you know some people don't even know it's
• 51:45
  divisible that's you know that's that's stone thing but even
• 51:48
  people that know it's divisible it seems expensive.
• 51:52
  So what I would point people to is market cap right?
• 51:55
  Market cap I think is a more sensible way of looking at it,
• 51:57
  which is that should, should this asset be bigger or smaller
• 52:00
  than one company like NVIDIA, right?
• 52:04
  Should it be bigger or smaller than gold?
• 52:06
  Should it be bigger or smaller than Apple?
• 52:09
  Should it be bigger? You know how, how, what
• 52:10
  percentage of global assets or global purchasing power should
• 52:14
  this be, right. I think that's a that's a better
• 52:16
  way to to think about it because it's a divisible asset, there's
• 52:19
  2.1 quadrillion satoshi's and so the unit, the unit can be
• 52:24
  whatever we want it to be pretty much.
• 52:26
  And it's really about just the overall purchasing power of the
• 52:29
  network and your share of the network and and so I think
• 52:33
  that's that's kind of a way to approach it.
• 52:35
  And for people trying to trade it, it's like you know people
• 52:39
  are waiting for these specific price targets either they want
• 52:41
  to exit at a certain price level or they want to get in at a
• 52:44
  certain price level. And I just don't think that's
• 52:45
  the best way to think about it. I think the the the way that the
• 52:49
  time it makes sense to either take take chips off the table or
• 52:53
  add to your position is more so about risk management,
• 52:57
  volatility management, you know, making sure that your your your
• 53:01
  portfolio's not kind of keeping you up at night.
• 53:03
  So for example, if Bitcoin goes up tremendously and the daily
• 53:08
  moves begin to, you know, just overwhelm the rest of your
• 53:11
  assets and you're always thinking about it, yeah, it can
• 53:14
  make sense to take some off the table and put it back into
• 53:16
  equities or by a by a real estate with it or, you know,
• 53:19
  whatever, whatever you're if you're holding back on a
• 53:21
  consumption, that might be the time to do it.
• 53:23
  On the other hand, if it's if it's in despair and you know
• 53:26
  it's got completely crushed and you have liquidity from income
• 53:29
  or other sources, maybe that maybe that's the time to lean
• 53:31
  into it. The way I approached it last
• 53:33
  cycle was I didn't touch my cold storage at all.
• 53:36
  I do run these model portfolios you know for for research
• 53:40
  clients and that's got this you know Bitcoin slice in it with
• 53:43
  things like GBTC or or you know different brokers have different
• 53:47
  way to get Bitcoin price exposure.
• 53:49
  And for that you know I would take some chips off the table
• 53:52
  and then put some chips back in every 18 months or so.
• 53:56
  And it's not based on the specific price target, it's more
• 53:58
  just based on is this asset going way above the allocation
• 54:02
  percentage that you know would would I think would scare away
• 54:05
  people kind of following this portfolio.
• 54:08
  And then when it when it dips back down, it's like OK, now
• 54:10
  it's cheap, now it's under allocated, I'm going to add back
• 54:12
  into it. But that's really more about
• 54:15
  kind of that portfolio management whereas cold storage
• 54:18
  Bitcoin, you know I'm one of those people that's just there's
• 54:21
  the, the price that would get me to sell those coins is is not
• 54:25
  really a price. It's more about what can I buy
• 54:27
  with those coins. Yes, I I agree with that matrix
• 54:30
  meme of like, you know, like you're telling me I can, I can,
• 54:34
  you know, trade it for millions one day.
• 54:35
  And it's like, no, when you're ready, you won't have to.
• 54:38
  Which is basically the implication that I would
• 54:41
  generally hold it until I either want to.
• 54:43
  Basically, it's money, right? So I would hold it until there's
• 54:46
  something I want more than that money, right.
• 54:48
  It could be, I want to consume something.
• 54:50
  It could be there's an investment that I finally
• 54:52
  perceived to be kind of better than Bitcoin because bitcoin's
• 54:54
  already huge now and it's like you know, it's it's it's closer,
• 54:57
  there's total addressable market and maybe there's a really cheap
• 55:00
  investment that I think is going to actually outperform it.
• 55:02
  You know, I, I would you know diversify, relocate into into
• 55:05
  some of those assets. But that's that's a zip code
• 55:08
  away in terms of price from from where we are now.
• 55:12
  I I got one follow up on the unit bias piece.
• 55:17
  So when when BlackRock rolls out their ETF or any of these other
• 55:24
  ETFs, and I am definitely not encouraging people to own these
• 55:27
  things, but I think it's going to solve some of that unit bias
• 55:30
  that is so prevalent. I can't even tell you how many
• 55:34
  times I've talked to people and they said, oh, Bitcoin, yeah, I
• 55:37
  can't, I can't own that. I can't, I can't afford a
• 55:39
  $40,000 imaginary coin. And I and I'm sure everybody
• 55:45
  listening to this has had that same comment said to them so
• 55:48
  many times. So if I was BlackRock or any of
• 55:51
  these other ETF providers like when I roll out the, the, the,
• 55:55
  the product, you know, right now bitcoins at $43,600, I would, I
• 56:00
  would make it $4.36 per share to buy.
• 56:05
  And that way it kind of tracks the price of Bitcoin at a much
• 56:09
  lower unit cost in their minds. And if it goes up any base 10
• 56:16
  growth, now it's $43.60 a coin, you know, and then just debase
• 56:23
  those shares down so that you kind of keep it at a small unit.
• 56:26
  And I think you would attract a whole lot of people into that
• 56:29
  product just out of sheer, I hate to say this stupidity, but
• 56:34
  it is. Yeah.
• 56:38
  So guys, I do want to be respectful of your time.
• 56:40
  We are getting to the top of the hour and I and I do want to
• 56:44
  leave the conversation with one more question.
• 56:46
  And the question is, you know the next five years, very
• 56:50
  turbulent times. We have a crazy election year in
• 56:54
  the States to say the least next year.
• 56:58
  And you know of course the, the the disintermediation of money,
• 57:02
  the disintermediation of money. And the question is what keeps
• 57:08
  you up at night. So I'll start 1st and what keeps
• 57:11
  me up at night is and I had this experience recently with my
• 57:16
  friends and family because I am the Uncle Jim of the family and
• 57:20
  I realized very, very quickly that they've had their Bitcoin
• 57:23
  in cold storage since 2016. But if anything ever happened to
• 57:27
  me forget, I don't even know. I don't know if they're going to
• 57:29
  be able to access it again. So I think that Bitcoin self
• 57:33
  custody is not AS easy as people think.
• 57:37
  I think it's not, as it just the incentive isn't there for people
• 57:42
  to learn it. That's what worries me.
• 57:44
  That's what keeps me up at night.
• 57:45
  Hopefully some great entrepreneurs, some great
• 57:48
  bitcoiners are able to tackle that problem.
• 57:51
  So I'm gonna pass it on to you, Preston.
• 57:53
  What keeps you up at night these days?
• 57:56
  Nothing. I want to keep Jamie Dimon up at
• 57:58
  night. I sleep really well.
• 58:01
  I, you know, there's things that I'm working on like the Fin Send
• 58:04
  response and other things that I'm trying to put out into the
• 58:08
  community that other people can fork, that they can use
• 58:12
  themselves. It just because I'm I'm saying
• 58:15
  that doesn't mean that I think that there aren't things there
• 58:17
  that I think we should be focusing on and improving.
• 58:20
  Ocean just came out with their new pool which I think is is
• 58:24
  really smart. There's a lot of people that are
• 58:26
  talking about how they they they're they're criticizing the
• 58:30
  fact that the the the template the block template that they're
• 58:34
  that they're currently producing is is not intelligent the way
• 58:38
  that they're cutting out a lot of the ordinals and inscription
• 58:41
  things. But what I think people really
• 58:44
  need to pay attention to is the road map, which is if you're
• 58:47
  providing A mining rig into that pool and you find a block with
• 58:51
  your rig, you're going to be able to supply your block
• 58:54
  template and not have some mining pool unilaterally tell
• 58:58
  you what block template you're going to use.
• 59:01
  And that to me is a huge innovation and something that
• 59:05
  really needs to be paid attention to and huge kudos to
• 59:08
  Luke Dasher and other people that are working towards that
• 59:11
  end goal of allowing the the rig provider to provide the block
• 59:16
  template that is actually mine because that's not how things
• 59:20
  currently work. I think that that's, you know,
• 59:23
  an area that has recently been resolved and I would love to see
• 59:27
  other pool operators kind of implement something similar in
• 59:31
  the future. And hopefully there are
• 59:32
  trendsetter. But don't take my comment as
• 59:35
  being egotistical, please take it as I like to be constructive.
• 59:39
  I like to be constructive in a way where I'm not necessarily
• 59:42
  broadcasting everything that I that I think are vulnerabilities
• 59:46
  and I think that the people who need to be sleeping really
• 59:49
  poorly at night is everybody on Wall Street. 100% and and I, I
• 59:53
  think they are, I think Christine Lagarde is having my
• 59:57
  producers going like this in the background.
• 59:59
  Loved your response, Preston. So Lynn, what about you?
• 1:00:03
  What, what keeps you up at night?
• 1:00:04
  Is there something that worries you about the US economy,
• 1:00:08
  perhaps about Bitcoin adoption, etcetera, etcetera?
• 1:00:12
  I think the biggest risk for the world is energy security in in
• 1:00:16
  the multiple years ahead. Not not, you know the next six
• 1:00:19
  months, but just you know over the next decade next 15 years.
• 1:00:23
  I I think navigating this kind of upcoming cap CapEx cycle.
• 1:00:26
  There's there's, you know there's this like lack of I
• 1:00:30
  think education around where energy comes from the the
• 1:00:34
  difference between different energy sources, politicians
• 1:00:38
  dictating what energy gets produced rather than engineers,
• 1:00:41
  when it's really it's a tactical engineering kind of problem.
• 1:00:46
  And so I think, you know there there's lots of things that can
• 1:00:49
  happen like recessions and problems like that that you know
• 1:00:53
  don't really, they're not really doomy, they're just, they're
• 1:00:55
  just kind of hurdles. Whereas the thing that can be
• 1:00:58
  really doomy for people is acute energy shortages that can be
• 1:01:03
  just absolutely death. People can die from things like
• 1:01:05
  that especially in developed developing countries.
• 1:01:07
  But basically that that I think is a a a key thing for humanity
• 1:01:13
  in general to navigate in the in the next years and decades.
• 1:01:17
  For Bitcoin specifically, I think you know there I agree
• 1:01:19
  with precedence about being constructive is saying OK what
• 1:01:22
  what about the network could use more work And so I know I agree
• 1:01:26
  with you that that you know custody is is something to
• 1:01:29
  improve when we look at you know overall kind of you know just
• 1:01:36
  levels of decentralization of the network, right.
• 1:01:38
  Pure decentralization is a platonic ideal that we always
• 1:01:41
  kind of reach for. You can never really achieve
• 1:01:42
  100% decentralization. So it's like OK, how can you how
• 1:01:45
  can you ask and totally approach pure decentralization you know
• 1:01:49
  what is what is currently imperfectly decentralized.
• 1:01:53
  I do think, you know mining pools could use more
• 1:01:55
  decentralization stratum V2 things like ocean that I think
• 1:01:58
  that's helpful for that. I think supply chain
• 1:02:02
  centralization is not probably talked about enough which is
• 1:02:06
  basically that there's very few foundries in the world that that
• 1:02:08
  produce leading ASICS. And so you know that's kind of
• 1:02:12
  an attack vector that I think is is worth you know distributing
• 1:02:17
  more than it currently is. You know there are some
• 1:02:19
  companies working on that. But overall, I mean the the UX
• 1:02:23
  and the quality of the network is better than it was five years
• 1:02:25
  ago and five years ago was better than the five years
• 1:02:28
  before. And I know that because, you
• 1:02:30
  know, even though I, I didn't get into Bitcoin until several
• 1:02:32
  years ago, I looked at it back in 2010, 2011.
• 1:02:36
  I mean that's, you know, it's, I kind of hate to say it, but
• 1:02:38
  yeah, basically like I was never one of those people that was
• 1:02:41
  against Bitcoin. But, you know, it's like I've I
• 1:02:44
  heard about it. I thought it was neat.
• 1:02:46
  I was like, oh, you know, maybe I should mine something because
• 1:02:48
  I knew someone that was mining it on her computer and I was, I
• 1:02:50
  kind of looked into it. I like this seems complicated.
• 1:02:53
  I'll get, I'll get to it next week and it just didn't do it.
• 1:02:55
  And then, you know, a few years after that I was like, well, let
• 1:02:58
  me just buy some because at that point it was, you know, you
• 1:03:00
  can't really mind it anymore, but I was like, let me, let me
• 1:03:03
  buy some. And so I would look at at the
• 1:03:05
  exchanges and they were really sketchy looking and I was like
• 1:03:08
  I'll spend more time next week to figure out how to buy this
• 1:03:11
  and not get scammed. And I just never, never followed
• 1:03:14
  up on it. And so it took a couple cycles
• 1:03:17
  to really, you know, to to to, you know, get into it.
• 1:03:20
  But that gave me the benefit of kind of first hand, at least
• 1:03:23
  seeing the UX along the way almost since inception.
• 1:03:27
  And the UX is definitely getting better every year and especially
• 1:03:30
  every kind of, you know, three-year or five year
• 1:03:32
  increments that the UX is just totally different than it was
• 1:03:35
  years ago and much better. And a point that I made with
• 1:03:38
  with Preston in our fireside at Pacific Bitcoin was, and this is
• 1:03:43
  kind of my last point about unit bias, I want to return to that,
• 1:03:48
  is that for people in Bitcoin, everybody's seen the log chart
• 1:03:51
  of of Bitcoin price, which is, you know, like, you know, 4
• 1:03:55
  cycles of just higher highs and higher lows.
• 1:03:58
  But I think it's important to keep in mind that the vast
• 1:04:00
  majority of people have never seen that chart.
• 1:04:03
  You know, years ago when I first looked at Bitcoin in logarithmic
• 1:04:07
  terms, I was like, oh that that's what it looks like.
• 1:04:11
  Because whenever you look at it in linear terms, you always see
• 1:04:13
  one or two things. Either it looks like you're an
• 1:04:15
  insane bubble, or it looks like a massive bubble just popped and
• 1:04:19
  the thing's dead. Whereas when you put it in log
• 1:04:22
  form, you see this more rhythmic, like this heartbeat of
• 1:04:26
  Bitcoin that this like district, this like accumulation cycle,
• 1:04:29
  this leveraging cycle that breaks and then it kind of
• 1:04:31
  rebuilds and goes up again. It's a very firm trend.
• 1:04:35
  You know, the magnitude varies and things like that.
• 1:04:37
  But the cycle and there's no guarantee that that timing
• 1:04:39
  remains exactly as it is. Basically, it looks much less
• 1:04:43
  like a bubble or broken bubble whenever you look at it in those
• 1:04:46
  terms. And I think it's important to
• 1:04:47
  remember that, you know, everybody in Bitcoin, Twitter
• 1:04:49
  and and Noster, you know, everybody's seen that chart, but
• 1:04:53
  90% of the world has not seen that chart.
• 1:04:56
  And So what they see is they don't see the full history of
• 1:05:00
  Bitcoin. All they really see is the
• 1:05:02
  cycles that they were aware of, right.
• 1:05:04
  So for most people, that's not the early cycles.
• 1:05:07
  They saw probably the 2017 cycle, they saw the 20/20/21
• 1:05:10
  cycle. And so for for a lot of people,
• 1:05:14
  it's not how many cycles has Bitcoin had, it's how many
• 1:05:17
  cycles have they seen, right? Because if they see a high, a
• 1:05:20
  high, then a crash, and then a higher high, and a crash, and a
• 1:05:23
  higher high and a crash, eventually they're like, well,
• 1:05:25
  wait a second, what's going on here?
• 1:05:27
  Maybe my, maybe my original assessment was wrong.
• 1:05:30
  And so I think that it's not just how many cycles people had
• 1:05:32
  it's how many cycles they've seen.
• 1:05:34
  And I think that that's that's going to be really relevant for
• 1:05:36
  the cycle because the past, you know the past two cycles were
• 1:05:40
  big enough to be pretty public and well known and you know all
• 1:05:42
  over CNBC. And so when we have a, you know
• 1:05:46
  a third cycle 1/3 higher high within these these past kind of
• 1:05:50
  you know this, this this quote UN quote big era of Bitcoin.
• 1:05:54
  I think that's really relevant price and I think that's that's
• 1:05:57
  how you can get some of these non linear events because
• 1:06:01
  there's only so many times you can see the cycle, keep going up
• 1:06:03
  and realize that some of your prior concerns about it being a
• 1:06:06
  bubble or dismissing it were were incorrect.
• 1:06:10
  Absolutely. Well, Lynn Preston, it's been
• 1:06:13
  absolute honor. Thank you guys so much for, for
• 1:06:17
  joining us today. And we want to give a shout out
• 1:06:19
  to Lynn's book Broken Money, why our financial system is failing
• 1:06:23
  us and how we can make it better.
• 1:06:25
  You can check you can there's a there's a link in the video
• 1:06:28
  description. And also of course press and
• 1:06:31
  pitch his podcast. Check out his latest episode
• 1:06:33
  Finance, GBTC, Fin CEN and more with Joe Carlosari and of course
• 1:06:37
  the one, the only the legendary American huddle.
• 1:06:41
  Guys, thank you so much like I said for for joining me today on
• 1:06:44
  Simply Bitcoin IRL. I'm gonna wrap it up real quick
• 1:06:48
  guys. We'll be back tomorrow Simply
• 1:06:51
  Bitcoin Simply Bitcoin Live from the floor at Unconfiscatable.
• 1:06:56
  We'll also be doing interviews with Jimmy Song, Giacomo,
• 1:06:59
  Natalie Burnell, Mark Moss, James Lavish and many, many
• 1:07:02
  more. Thank you guys so much for
• 1:07:04
  tuning in. I'll see you guys tomorrow.
• 1:07:06
  Bye everybody.