Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Week 18 Betting Preview

Transcript

The Favorites - NFL Week 18 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Moman of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: our Tuesday Week eighteen episode. We will break down the
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: entire slate of NFL games. We'll discuss our exact decision
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: our Simon says, we'll start to narrow down the options
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: for our five phaves to put into the last week
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: of The Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Pick Them contest. We went two and three this past week.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: A bit of a theme this year. Live from our
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Tommy John Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always buy my
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: co host, my companion, Mike and padre My BFF professional
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter Simon. I want to be the very
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: first to officially wish you and our audience and Matt
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Mitchell and Gifford and Evan happy Happy New Year's December
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: thirty first, the end of twenty twenty four. We're going
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: to ring in twenty twenty five. How you doing, buddy? Hell?
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Oh so I'm in.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: Happy New Year Chat.
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I'm gonna try to see if I can give
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: up my favorite thing in the world. For a month
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: after the New Year's and that's chocolate. So I'm going
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: hard today on chocolate. People are going out getting drunk,
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: going partying. Me just eating tons and tons of chocolate.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What kind? What are you eating?
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: I get a ton of chocolate from England for Christmas,
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: so I go to town on.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: That chocolate with nougat, chocolate with nuts.
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: Now you know me, I'm a milk chocolate guy. With
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: caramel's that's my go to.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Salt it do you put any salt? Is it salted?
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: It salted a little bit? I don't overdo it. I
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: mean that those chocolate pretzels I send you, those are
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: the that's the salted, perfect, the amount of chocolate. So yeah,
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: those should be out your doorstep any day.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: You those and you love giving those like you're so
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: excited to give those, and you'd like to tell me
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: how to eat them. I gotta let it all melt
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: in my mouth. I can't just chew on my fat.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Appreciated with your instructions on the gift giving h for Hanukah.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: My younger son knows me so well. He got me
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: a cookbook, A thousand ways to cook nuts in your house.
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: I swear to God, I wish you had opened up
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: and we've just been a joke of these nuts. That'd
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: have been great.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: I get that a lot here too. Listen. We joked
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night about how it's been an off year,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: uh for us. You know, if you want to your
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: contrarian better, if you're fading the public, if you like
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: the bed home dogs, if you're looking for places where
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: you think the bookmakers are leaning into what they expect
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: to be group think from the public and shading lines,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: shading favorites and tricky trap spots, this has not been
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: the year for you. It has not been the year
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: for us. Situations that have gone our way and Better's
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: ways for years have completely flipped, so much so that
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: when we had the Broncos at plus three and a
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: half on Saturday afternoon and lost on a late overtime
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: touchdown after both coaches had mismanaged the clock and the
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Bengals kicker hit the upright on a thirty three yard
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: field goal to win the game and give us the cover,
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: it didn't even seem like it was a fluke. And
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: you know what, Simon, it wasn't. Because on Sunday night
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: we lost another game in which we had the dog
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half after a coach mismanaged the
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: clock and a miss field goal to give us the
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: cover went awry and a touchdown in ot was scored.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: I like, I don't even I didn't even watch it.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know about you. I went to bed. Then,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: of course our two wins were booke ended the Chargers
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: on the road and the Lions on the road. So
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: you know that's the perfect example of the kind of
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: year has been, right.
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's sickening as someone who, like you just said,
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: has been doing this for almost half my life at
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: this point, and you know that Sunday game historically is
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: an easy, easy winner on that Atlanta team. Okay, the
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: favorites at that point, I believe, were what twelve and
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: three or eleven and three, whatever the number was, and
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: the public got really fat over Christmas break, and the
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: books usually slaughter them Sunday night they didn't. Okay, that's
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: fine by me, me and you. I thought our bet
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: on Detroit was absolutely dead. That bet never ever wins
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: the Monday night game after the public just has a
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: weekend like they did. Favorites are whatever at that point,
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: they're fifteen oh one straight up or fourteen oh one
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: straight up heading into that game, and you know the
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: guys I respect. I get a call on Sunday and
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: basically there's some guys I'm convinced their time travelers because
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: they just never bet.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: When they do bet, it's a winner.
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: They came in heavy on the forty nine ers, Like
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: as soon as that happened, I'm like, oh, gay Me
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: and Chatter are going one to four. That's a dead bet.
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: You know, Brock Pretty comes out is just cruising. They're
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: putting up twenty one. We're again, it's just an insane game.
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: And they lost and they didn't cover, like the kicker
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: missed the kick, like all.
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: These things happen.
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: Pretty throws a pick and they get a walk off
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: touchdown or whatever it was, and it's just been brutal,
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: like someone that's done. It's a long time. I've never
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: never experiencing like this. We're betting dumb, bad lines and
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: that's the only thing winning for us right now. Like
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: that Detroit bet, Yeah, we basically bet it because we
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: were just like Detroit's better. They close out games, they
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: play hard. The forty nine ers suck. They're gonna choke
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: that game away and they somehow didn't. It just is
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: never this easy. So it's been again. I can't wait
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: for the season to be over because this is just such.
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: A freak year.
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: And yeah, guys, are you know guys braggingly having sixty
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: percent this season? It's like you, I'm sure this is
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: the one of every ten years that they win big
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: because this is just the most flukiest random year ever.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Betting on favorites, well, let me give you some stats
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: from Evan Abrams to back that up. Favorites have now
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: gone seventy two percent straight up this year. That's the
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: most profitable season since two thousand and five, seventy nine
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: percent straight up since Week thirteen, the least profitable season
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: for underdogs on the money line since two thousand and five.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Teams getting at least sixty six percent of the spread bets.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: We talk about the public all the time. When we
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: see and we track in the action app the percentage
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: of bets on one side that is the public, That
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: is an indication that you usually want to fade it.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: This season fifty nine percent against the spread, those teams
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: are seventy three percent on the money line and thirty
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: eight and eight thirty six and eight eighty two percent
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: since week thirteen. Straight up home underdogs another bet we
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: love to play. It's been automatic for years. The wise
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: guys know it, the professionals know it. Home underdogs. There's
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: always value there because that means the team they're playing
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: is usually better. In the eyes of the public. It
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: gets shaded in their direction. This year forty three percent
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: against the spread, least profitable season since two thousand and five.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Here's one for you. Favorites of six or more twenty
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: nine and one straight up since week thirteen, the only
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: loss the Giants over the Colts. This past weekend. Favorites
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: are also sixty nine percent since week fifteen, sixty nine percent.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: We see it. Our only wins the past few weeks
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: have been on favorites. Yeah, you know, the playoffs are
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: just around the corner. So the question is going to be,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: and we love the playoffs, The question is going to be,
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: are we spooked by what's been happening? Are we gonna
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: revert to the patterns that we've played our entire lives?
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Do we think things will go back to normal when
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: there are two good teams playing like I do think
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: a big part of the issue this year has been
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: a real decrease in quality play from quarterbacks and increase
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: in variance high variants plays from coaches going for it
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: for two points, going forward and fourth downs, and the
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: fact that kickoffs have given teams in extra ten yards
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: and good teams can take advantage of that. You know
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have to talk about that, but first you
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: and I may be far, far far out of it
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: in the contest. We are pros. We don't rest on
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: the last week of the season, do we.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: Now we have to make picks.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Let's go to week eighteen. As a reminder, the Favorite
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: podcast is present by Bet three sixty five and now
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: new bed three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars place
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: at bet for five dollars to get one hundred and
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Waitever
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: the moment, It's never ordinary at Bet three six five
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: must be twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: restrictions apply. All right, last notice, It's our final week
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: of the season for the favorites one hundred thousand dollars
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Pro Football Pick Them contest forty thousand dollars first place
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: prize will soon be climbed. Tens of thousands more paid
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: out to the entire top ten. First place is currently
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: d Winsenburg with sixty one points two above every b else.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Can d Winsenberg stay the course and claim the forty
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: k extremely exciting race to the finish line. Good luck
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: to all of this year's participants. Matt Mitchell quickly in
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: the chat. Are we doing Saturday games this week? And
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: if so, do people have to get it in by
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: one pm? Sorry if this is later in the script
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: and I had missed it, But Sunday only Sunday only
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: this week? All right, Sunday only games this week? Just
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: so people know, Sunday only. Here's how I want to
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: lay this out. This show for listeners, Week eighteen is
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: so weird because of playoff scenarios, draft scenarios, people trying
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: to figure it out by googling playoff scenarios seventy five times.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: What I want for this episode. This is your one
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: stop shop. I wanted to provide a few things all
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: in one place for sports fans. We are nothing if
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: not utility driven. I want this to be what we
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: know to be the most up to date information about
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: which teams are playing starters and who isn't. I've been
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: tracking that, We've all been tracking that playoff scenarios impacting
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: their decisions. So I want people to understand which teams
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: are playing for something or nothing, draft orders, and those
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: scenarios impacting team decisions, and then we'll give our standard
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: betting advice based on all of the above. We are
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: not ignoring Saturday games. Cleveland at Baltimore. Baltimore is a
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: seventeen and a half point favorite.
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: Well, you want me to run through the list real
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: quick chat and break down all the scenarios for everyone?
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: No, No, I'm going to go through them with each game
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: so people can have it as we get to the game.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: They can include that in context for how we are
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: thinking about it from a betting point of view. That way,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: they don't have to remember all right, let me. I
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: don't want to make people go back be like all right,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: what was the scenario here? We'll give it to them
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: in context. So Cleveland Baltimore, Baltimore's a seventeen and a
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: half point favorite. Cleveland right now has the third pick.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: They they're basically guaranteed a top five pick. I don't
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: think that's going to impact the play here. The Ravens
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: a loss would give Pittsburgh the AFC North. If Pittsburgh
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: beat Cincinnati, Baltimore would then go to the five seed
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: and have a road game against the Texans in Round one.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: So I say this, they will play their best players
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: because they need to win this game. They don't want
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: to go on the road. They want to win the division,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: and they want to be the three seed. That's my
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: take on the game and the scenario. Do you have
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: strong thoughts on the seventeen and a half right now?
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: I would love to take Cleveland, but I won't do it.
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: Won't do it.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: Chad ain't gonna do it.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Won't do it because we've been getting burned because historian
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Thompson Robinson, who scored nine points and we waiting for
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: in two weeks are waiting for Jamis now.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: We've been burning.
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: Even if there is two points of value on this,
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: trust the books right now, the books have just been
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: laying bad giving out bad numbers. And you know, I
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: don't know what it is. Look, we just talked about it.
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: Maybe it is because every team started at the thirty.
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: If you literally get one first down, all of a sudden,
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: you're at the forty forty five yard line, and that
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: that's a big deal, rather than you've been at the
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: twenty five thirty yard line. So you're right, that's that's
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: a big deal. It's been huge for the favorites. And
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: this is pretty simple. The Ravens, they they win this,
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: they win the division. And on the flip side, if
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: they win this, like we just talked about Steelers, they
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: play later that day. They might not even play their
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: starters because there's nothing to play for it at that
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: point and they're kind of locked in. So yeah, they
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: want they need our money, clearly, Chad, there, it's seventeen
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: and a half. They need our money. This is all
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: Ravens money. For the minute it opened, it was.
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: All Ravens money.
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: So I'm in no rush. It's a great number, obviously,
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: seventeen and a half. That's a huge key number, but
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: I just I won't do it right now.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: Teams getting less than thirty percent of the betting tickets,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: so teams that the public has no interest in cover
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: the spread about sixty percent of the time if they
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: if they're off a game in which they scored single digits. Amazingly,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: there are several teams that qualify for this system this week.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: I think it's a tricky one because I think there's
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: so many bad teams and so much bad quarterback play.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: There's a real disparity in the league right now. The
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: league has lived on parody for so many years. I
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: don't think there is parody in this league right now.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know, if you're crazy.
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: NFC is the most parody it's ever been.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but the bad are so bad. I don't mean
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: like individual divisions. We can cherry pick the teams, but
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: some of these bad teams are just so bad. The
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: quarterback play is so bad you cannot count on them
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: to do the fluky thing to do the right things
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: to put themselves in a position to win. You Like,
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: we've seen it week in and week out. There's some
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: really bad football teams out there, and the Browns have
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: zero quarterback plays there is.
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: But I told you we're in the golden age of quarterbacks.
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: You're spoiled. Like when Baker Mayfield's thrown for five touchdowns
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: and Sam Darnold is throwing for three hundred and fifty
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: yards and three touchdowns and playing for the one seed,
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: You're spoiled.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: You sound spoiled.
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: It's like, how many good quarterbacks do you want? Chad
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: On a good I mean, if I go back and
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: look at the mid two thousands, if we had four
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: or five good quarterbacks, we.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: Were living the dream.
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: It was like, oh my god, we have Rogers, Peyton Manning,
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: Brady Phillip Rivers, like these guys are all great quarterbacks.
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: Now it's there's just so much good QB play that Yes,
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: when you see bad quarterbacks, it really stands out.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: And I agree the.
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: Browns they don't have a legit started quarterback on their roster,
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: and it is interesting to me though they have not
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: gone back to Winston like in that game against Miami.
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: Why don't go back to Jamis he must be really
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: seriously hurt.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, you know they listed him as having an
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: injured shoulder, and he was I think even inactive last week.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: That's one question I'm sort of looking at this week.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: Would they consider going back to him? Is he going
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: to practice? You know, I want to see how that
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: goes before we got deep into this game. Yeah, no
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: for me yet, Yeah, no, bet since he and Pittsburgh,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: this one is you know, racked with all sorts of circumstances. Right,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: we've leaned Cincy on Tuesday night when it was two
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: and a half. It's moved in the opposite direction. So
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: people are buying into the idea that what you said
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night? Could this be a get right game
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: for Russell Wilson? Do you back Mike Tomlin in the
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: raw ross spot where he's twenty two and sixteen straight
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: up as an underdog versus a divisional opponent, twenty six
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: ten and two against the spread as an underdog against
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: a divisional opponent. Will know something at this point, you know,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: the NFL is like the WWE. Right, they have set
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: this up so it's all TV drama. The Steelers will
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: know their circumstances. They'll know if they have got a
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: shot to win the division or if they're gonna move down.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: They do have some motivation. They could still move down
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: further in the playoff seedings if they lose this game.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: So I don't think they're gonna come out and rest starters.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: Even if the Ravens win the game.
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: That's fair to me, that would be a mistake. I
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: think they should. But obviously I'm a degenerate gambler and
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: I have money invested already in the Bengals, and I
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: love the Bengals. Yeah, it's I guess it's a big
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: deal if they flip seedings. But at the end of
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: the day, it's like, you know, I get it, Like
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: they win to get to play Houston, that's a big deal, right,
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: Like you want to face them rather than having to face.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: You want to face like the Bravens.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: Right, right, right, So, no, you're right.
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: I honestly love this one for since because it just
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: feels like this is the game. Since he wins, and
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: then you know it doesn't matter. They're not going to
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: make the playoffs regardless, and just the way Joe Joe
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: Brows been playing overcoming one of the worst defenses in
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: all football. It's really impressible, Like you just said it,
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: Like normally we hammer this and like tomlin spot, but
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: like so much unknown. I just don't know how motivated
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: they're going to be this exact scenario that. Yeah, I'm
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: still still on Cincy. Most professionals I've talked to at
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: this point they like, obviously this Pittsburgh team for what
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: we just talked about. It's it's a nice spot for
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: Tomlin to bounce back with an offense that you know
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: they've been struggling.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: But you know, we didn't really talk about it.
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: The Ravens defense has been much better the second half
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: of the season. Yeah, the Chiefs obviously one of the
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: better defense in all football. You already know the Eagles
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: have a top three defense. So going from playing three
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: of the hardest defense in the football and out of
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: playing one of the worst defense in football, we expect
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh to look good and be able to move the
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: ball here. But yeah, it's no.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: They moved it to one and a half now, I
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: can't help it.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: I got a bet since is this a Simon says,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: do you worry that I'll go back to no?
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: But I would grab her now if you want it.
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: Like, like we just talked about, like we don't know
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: the incentive of this Pittsburgh team and what they're going
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: to do if the brown I mean the Ravens doing
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: I know, we just said they're going to try to
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: play it out. But that bye week, at this point
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: of season, especially you just played three games in eleven days,
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: that's a huge deal. Like that little bit of MIDI
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: bye week they can take right here before the playoffs,
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: that's that's a really big deal. So yeah, it's tough
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: to get a read on this one.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Buffalo at New England. New England is a three point
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: underdog at home. It's come way down since it was
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: posted on Sunday night. It opened at five and a half.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: It was within fifteen minutes, it was down to one
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: and a half. It moved back up to two and
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: a half. Now it's at three. The Patriots have the
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: number one pick in the NFL right now, and they're
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: in a glorious spot because they don't need to draft
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: a quarterback. So the optionality with that pick, you gotta
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: want to keep it. The assumption is that Josh Allen
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: will at least play a series to keep his starting
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: streak alive, which apparently Matt Mitchell says is important him
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: and Matt Mitchell, you know, was our Buffalo correspondent. Do
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: we think the Pats will play Drake May? Will they
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: sit him to give them the best chance to win
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: the number one pick? I don't really have a strong
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: opinion on this game.
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, pretty interesting.
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: Bill is automatically locked in the two seeds. So this
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: is truly a meaningless game for them in.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: Every which way.
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: And yeah, why would they not want to let New
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: England beat them?
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: Not not let them get the top draft pick. But
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: I do love Patriots fans being like, oh, this is great.
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: We can use this as leverage a trade down and
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: get more draft capitable as if they can draft good players.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: It's like, we have no faith. I have zero faith
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: in their GM or head coach right now in New England.
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: And I'm a psychopath too.
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: Where it's like Drake May, he showed little flashes, but
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: nothing compared to Jayden Daniels or bow Nicks of like,
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: even Caleb Williams had moments where I was like, Okay,
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: this guy's a legit start in this league. Drake May,
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: to me, there was a lot of fifty to fifty
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: balls that he's gotten lucky on and he can scramble.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: If this was a really good draft for quarterbacks, I
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: don't think they'd be hesitant to draft a quarterback. I
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: know that sounds crazy Patriots fans because I love Drake May,
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: but it's like, dude, they don't work that way in
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: the NFL.
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, Chad just talked about it.
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: He's sick of the qv play because there's only ten
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: guys that are like legit. That's how hard it is.
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: Like the odds of you drafting a legit guy is
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: just so rare. I'm just all about the Washington Even
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: the Eagles did it like we had Carson Wentz. We
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: took Hurts in the second round.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: Like I don't know.
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: People get to attach to these quarterbacks and their egos,
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: and it's I think they're unique opportunity if they if
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: they break down they love this draft class of quarterback
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: and they have their one pick, I think they should
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: look into it. But yeah, Travis Hunter, whoever they want
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: to go with at that top pick, or if they
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: do want to trade down to get more draft capital
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: to draft more players, sure, go for it new them,
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: but I easily see them could upset he winning this game. Right,
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: Like Mitch Trubisky, Chad knows we've been through it. He's
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: he can be good for a quarter, but we know
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: that eventually he's gonna throw a pick. So if Drake
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: made is in this game, I think it could be competitive.
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't hesitate to take the plus three. But yeah,
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: it's another game where it's a lot of we don't
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: know who's playing yet this point. I haven't bet it,
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: waiting to get more info on it. The only reason
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: I bet the three is just because I'm shocked they
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: went up to three. I thought this would be a
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: pick them. So that just shows how bad this this
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: Patriots team is. There basically a home dog to a
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: team of backups in Buffalo.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: It's very rare that anyone in the NFL is going
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: to not suffer from the sunk cost fallacy. Right, you've
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: got a quarterback, You've drafted a quarterback. You want to
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: invest in that quarterback. You want to grow that quarterback.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: You don't want to feel like the person who wasted
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: the year to pick the year before. You want to
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: realize that ROI the very few teams have done it.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: The most recent one I can think of is the
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: Cardinals had drafted Josh Rosen top ten and the next
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: year drafted Kyler Murray. Right, they immediately were like, this
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: guy sucks. We can improve our lot, no brainer, don't
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: worry about what we've done in the past. You don't
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: get teams drafting quarterbacks unless you're the Bears, and you
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: draft a quarterback in the top five every three years.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: And that's not because they're smart enough to walk away.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: They're just bad enough to choose the room.
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: They are smart enough, though, like you're saying they're not.
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: That was I mean, think how crazy the fans were.
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: They're like, no, we like Justin. We want to keep Justin.
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: It's like, god damn. People just get to attach to
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: these quarterbacks. They just they love potential. And again, the
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: Vikings and the reason I was down on them, they
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: punted on their first round pick. They got Sam Donald.
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: Then they drafted you know, JJ, like that was a
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: big deal. And now they're in a weird spot where
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: it's like, are they the Vikings gonna trade JJ and
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: just keep Sam Donald? Like their dream for JJ McCarthy
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: would to be what Sam Donald just did this season, right,
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: That's it's as good as it's gonna get. So that's
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: what I mean though, It's just you got to just
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: keep firing on these quarterbacks and you just have to
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: hit one unicorn and your franchise is set for fifteen years.
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: So it's like, I get a Patriots fans, your attached
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: to Drake May even though he's done nothing. You're the
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: worst team in football this year. You can blame your coach,
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: you can blame your lack of talent. Is that gonna
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: change next year? I'm already seeing they're rejecting Vrabel to
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: bring back that coach for one more one more year
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: in May. Like, they're just a terribly run organization, and
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: I think we're all starting to figure that out that
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: it was just really Belichick and Tom and nothing up top.
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: It was just blatant luck by Craft that he got
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: this incredible quarterback in the seventh, sixth round and he
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: got check instead of going to the Jets, he came there.
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: And it just that's how football is, right, you can
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: walk yourself into dumb luck. And right now it just
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: feels like this they're the most dysfunctional organization and I
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: don't know if you love it, but I love it
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: like I hated that Patriots run and they're cocky, know
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: what all fans? And now they are just the bottom
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: of the barrel. And enjoy your number one pick Patriots.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Quick Recap for Week seventeen in the Favorites one hundred
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars Pro Football to Come contest. Congratulations to Rodney
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: Valentine are week seventeen first place winner. He went five
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: and oh got with any yard of the tiebreaker. He
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: takes home our one thousand dollars a weekly prize. As always,
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell was selected the Producer's Cup award for the
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: entry that finished dead fucking last.
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: Have you about the loads loser? He's a Louis about
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: He still kids dry.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup goes to m M Haus who
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: went one five missed the tiebreaker by almost four hundred yrards.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: M M has please email our producer at podcast at
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: Action Network dot com to claim me prize. Houston at Tennessee.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: This one has been on a freaking roller coaster. Yeah,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: Texans cannot change their draft.
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: Locked in at four, Locked.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: In at four, They're the worst record of the division winners.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: Titans currently own the number two spot in the draft.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: They're desperate for a quarterback. This one huge moves up
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: and down. Opened it seven thirty five PM Sunday night
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: with Tennessee as a one point underdog. By the time
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: you and I we do the show seven thirty to
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: about eight eight fifteen. By the time we were on
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: the air midway through the show, Tennessee was a four
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. Now it's back down to
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: Tennessee minus one. No upside for the Texans, locked in
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: at the four. Like I said, why is this line
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Simon moving so much?
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: Simon says, give me Tennessee plus one.
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: When Simon says do it, we do it.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Minus one.
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: Beth Svive it is yeah, okay, yeah, I don't get it.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: I do not get it at all.
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: It's all public money too, Like I'm looking the Action
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: app and it's all public just hammering this Texan side
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: and we kind of talk about it. Like these NFL teams,
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: you saw it a lot, especially in that Giants locker
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: room after that game. They do not care about draft position.
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: Like these guys just want to win, and a lot
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: of them are playing for their jobs and playing for
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: their futures and say what you about the Tennessee being
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: terrible and them losing and not covering all these games
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: in a row, they at least been trying and being
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: competitive in these games. Like a lot of these games
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: are close games, Like, it's not them just getting rolled
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: by thirty forty points, right, it's a lot of times
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: I'm coming back losing by a touchdown or just failing
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: that last drive. And me and you have talked a
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: ton about this Texans team, about how bad they are
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: mainly because of injuries, right, And they were a top
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: heavy team coming of the year. They were stars of
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: the scrub type of team, right. And now in this game,
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: all the stars will be out. All the reasons they've
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: been even be able to keep this thing together is
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: going to be out for this Houston team. On the
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: flip side, I just could see Tennessee messing up their
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: draft position and wanting to win this game. And they're
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: desperate for a win. I mean they've gone months without
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: a win like that.
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: That just wears on you.
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: And we've already talked about how it's an anomaly them
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: against the spread, right, two and fourteen against the spread this.
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: Season against the spread ever.
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: Ever, and again, I know people don't give us crudest,
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: but like we've avoided them this whole time. We literally
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: have avoided them this whole time.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: But we deserve credit for our It's.
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: Been hard, honestly though, it's been hard because every week
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: the books are giving us a free two to three points,
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: no joke, like they're just begging for Tennessee money. And
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: every week it just was not coming through. And I
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: know some pros have just been chasing this for well
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: over a month on this Tennessee team.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I I I just.
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: Think Tennessee is in a good spot here playing against
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: a bunch of backups that you know, I don't think
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: he still is going to care at all about this game.
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: On the flip side, I think Tennessee is going to
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: care about getting this last win. Callahan just before the
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: end of the season, try to feel good about themselves.
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: And we've see it all the time teams like this
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: that I've a horrible year, nothing to play for.
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: They kind of steal one of these games the end
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: of the year.
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: So yeah, it makes me I've seen a normal year.
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: It feel good knowing the public's heavy on our road
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: favorite in Houston, but it has not been the case
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: this season. But I still I still like Tennessee at
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: this number. I do think it goes up by kickoff.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: Very interesting. Finally pulling the trigger on the Tennessee Titans.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: I got to tell you, I didn't see that one coming.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: I wanted to go in. I've hated them, Yeah, I
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: want Look, you walk me back from the last week,
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: like I was itching to bet the Titans, and you're like, no, no, no, no.
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: You're right.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: We do deserve credit for not falling prey and betting
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: the Titans all season long. Maybe no credit for betting
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: the Panthers sas long, but we totally deserve credit for
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: not betting the Titans when we absolutely when that number
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: was bloated every single week. Good for us, Simon, Simon,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: A new year is dawning. Now is the time to
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: make our resolutions, choose a path to live better in
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. For me, it's about living authentically, and
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: to me, there's nothing more authentic than being comfortable, especially downstairs.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: And with a special sale for our listeners, you can
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: share my resolution to make Tommy John a big part
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: of my new year with thousands of authentic five star reviews.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Everyone can see Tommy John will leave you comfortable, confident,
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: and able to live your life like a whole new
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: person for the long year ahead. Simon, why will you
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: be giving the gift of Tommy John in the year twenty
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: twenty five?
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: Cause chat, it's the gift that last.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: That's right. Right now, you can shop Tommy John dot
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: com slash favorites for the holidays and get twenty five
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: percent off your first order. Save twenty five percent at
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: Tommy John dot com slash favorites. That's Tommy John dot
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: com slash favorites. Yesterday, yesterday, I made my younger son
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: give me a hug. He was being mean to me,
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, let's just hug. There's no reason to
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: be mean. And when we hugged, he uh said, wow,
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: this shirt is so soft? Is this Tommy John? And
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: I was wearing a quilted Tommy John pullover. We buy it,
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: we like it. Jacksonville at Indy, Anthony Richardson missed last
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: week and he's a five point favorite here with backspasms.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: If he is healthy, the cults say he will play.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: There's no word yet on if he is healthy. Obviously, like,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: there's not a ton on the line here. The Jags
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: have the fifth pick overall draft position, not likely to
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: impact any decisions about who will play. They've got the
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: quarterback they say they want, They've got some costs, They're
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: not walking away from Trevor Lawrence. Kind of a normal
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: handicap to me. A team that won't stop trying in
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: the Jags versus a team that feels like culturally in house,
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: it is in big trouble. I don't know if you've
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: been keeping up with Pat McAfee versus the Indianapolis Colts franchise,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: but he's been railing on this team and now they
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: are fighting back. And they were just so bad. They
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: had so many chances to win that game, staying contention
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: against the Giants defense could not stop Drew Locke. So
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: are the Jags way overvalued because they've been competitive? Are
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: the Colts undervalued? After last week's games? The numbers moved
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: down a little bit. It's pro Jo's game for what
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: it's worth. Tickets on the Jags, money on the Colts.
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, brutal, brutal a year for the Colts.
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: I saw the part of my take.
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: Boys had a crazy statu about Ballard and basically since
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: he's taken over, every team has won this division twice.
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: So the Texas have won it twice, Jacksonville's won it twice,
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: Tennessee's won it twice. They've won a zero times since
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: he's taken over. Come on, Yeah, it's pretty insane that
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: Ers has let this man hang around.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: At this and everyone always talks about what a brilliant
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: GM he is.
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: He honestly isn't some aspect where, like, you know, the
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: offensive line and some of the trafficks he hit on
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: were great, but he just obviously clearly never figured out
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: the quarterback situation. And every year he's just been throwing
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: darts and it's the wrong dart he just throws to
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: the So, yeah, another game of I want to take
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: Jacksonville this They've they've been playing, you know, with their
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: backups where you want to call it, for months.
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: They're used to it.
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: The Colts any guy with the even semi injured coming
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: out of last week, why would they play in this
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: game like they're that? How does that not just suck
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: your soul out? You put in so much work. I mean,
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: they're interviewing guys who've been there a long time in
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: the locker room and they're just like, it's the same
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: old every season.
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: This is how it goes, and like that that.
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: To me, like we just talked about that's the worst
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: loss of the season, right, You're playing for your, yeah,
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: your lives to make the playoffs and you lose to
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: a team that literally hadn't won a home game all
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: season and you lose to a quarterback and Drew Lock.
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: That just looked like an all pro against your secondary,
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: like tour you guys up.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: Every single time they got close and had a chance.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: They needed one stop, one stop multiple times to get
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: back in that game. If they do well, they drive
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: down the field, they score, they're taking the lead. They
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: could not freaking do it.
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: No, And like again, the game was summed up perfectly.
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: The announcer said the Colts had four drives and they
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: had six points. Drew Lock had three drives, he had
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: three touchdowns. Just insane to think about that, that type
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: of thing. That's why we love betting though. That's you know,
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: that was the one big dog that we just talked
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: about one outright, So, yeah, the Colts are just so bad.
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: This feels like way too much respect to this team,
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: especially at four and a half. Call me a sucker
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: for this Jackson. I just love the way they've been
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: playing down the stretcher. I'll take mac Jones Brian Thompson
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: Junior at plus four and a half.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: I agree with you, Like I kept thinking, like we're
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: seeing the Jacks compete every single week. This was a
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: great stat from Evan mac Jones. With Doug Peterson three
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: and three against the spread. He was something like, you know,
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: fifteen and thirty against the spread with the Patriots. So
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: clearly Doug Peterson is getting something out of mac Jones
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: that Bill Belichick wasn't getting. But he's got swagger and
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: he doesn't deserve it. But he's making bad throws that
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: Brian Thomas Junior continues to make him look good on him, like,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I.
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: Got a better one for you. He's got the same
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: amount of wins this year and whatever it is six
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: starts as Drake May has for the whole season.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: Suck on that. In New England.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: Washington at Dallas. This one opened Dallas plus five and
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: shortly after the Commanders won on Sunday night, moved down
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: to three. Now it's back up to four. Look there's
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: still playoff seating incentive for the Commanders, right, If they
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: do win, they're locked in at the sixth seed, they
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: get the Bucks or the Rams. They gotta travel, but
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: they get the Bucks of the Rams. If they lose,
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: they're the seventh seed. They're playing the Eagles. I mean
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: that's incentive to me, do you want to play the
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: Eagles or do you want to play the Bucks or
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: the Rams? So to me, this should be a totally
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: normal handicap.
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: Even more so, doesn't feel like this is the type
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: of game that Washington just absolutely rolls the Cowboys. Like
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: the Cowboys that think we realized they've had their Super
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: Bowl against that Tampa team in that primetime game.
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: And you know, as.
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: Bad as I looked against the Eagles, I don't know
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: how much better they're going to play against Washington. Right.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: These guys all have their trips booked, they're ready to go.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: Michael Parsons comments after the game were just madly insane,
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: Like it just seems to go a team that's kind
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: of lost their mind at this point. The Cowboys, Washington,
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: I feel like you just nailed it, right. This is
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: a game they really want to win because it really
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: defines who they're going to be playing in this playoffs,
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: and of course they want to come to Philly. Like
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: you don't want to say you don't want to face
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: the same same team three times? Right we all know that.
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: So yeah, the fact that this has moved the way
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: it's moved just makes total sense to me, Like the
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: pros and the public to me, will be on Washington.
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: I could see this keep going up, Like, to me,
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: this should be six by kickoff. So the fact you
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: can still get four and a half on Washington, I
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: don't hate that number.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: I don't hate that value.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: Get four at bat three sixty five. This is one
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: of those stats and system that we mentioned, Oh, play Cowboys,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Play the Cowboys, right, Teams getting less than thirty percent
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: of the tickets cover the spread sixty percent of the
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: time if they're off a game in which they scored
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: single digits. Again, it's a it's a weird stat because
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: it basically tells you to favor the worst teams. Right, yeah,
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: we're talking. We're talking about the Cowboys. This week we saw.
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: The hot big of a deal was the lu CD though, right, Yeah,
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: like not how was a big deal?
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: I will say this, Cooper Rush, he chucks it man,
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: he's willing to play, He'll throw it into the fire.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: He still makes some good throws. Brandon Cooks stepped in nicely,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: and we knew the Eagles are kryptonite for Cooper Rush.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: His worst games as a backup have come against the Eagles.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: And I don't necessarily think he's going to mail it in.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: He's a backup quarterback who wants to do as well
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: as he can. And I don't think Mike McCarthy's going
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: to nail it in. Nail it in because I think
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: he is still trying to win the games for next year.
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: If you if I had to bet on if he
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: will be the coach, I would say he will be
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: next year. Seems like the sentiment is that the tide
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: is turning on that so I don't it's to me,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: it's not an automatic with Washington. If it gets higher,
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: I might just want to play the Cowboys.
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: That's fair.
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: So we'll put him on the list because why not.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: How much worse can it get for us New Orleans
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: of Tampa Bay. You teased wanting to take the Saints
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: on Sunday Night. It's moved down half a point. This
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: is a normal handicapp to me. The Bucks need to
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: win to get in. Any year we are taking the Saints,
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: but this is not any year. My biggest worry is
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: that the Saints don't have any playmakers. I mean, they
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: truly are a JV team.
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: Cam Jordan.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: Five year old kna You know, I like to play
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: this game with my kid. You know, jersey retirement, Hall
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: of Fame team Hall of Fame statue, Cam Jordan, Where
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: do you think he qualifies?
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: Like?
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: He's one of the best players defensively the Saints I have
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: ever had.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he leads them in sacks, right.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: Pillar in the community, always a Walter Payton Man of
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: the Year Award nominee. Does he get a statue? Does
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: he get his jersey retired? Or is he in the Saints'
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: Ring of honor?
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: Gotta retire jersey if you're the Saints. He's the all
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: time leader in sacks. That's it's just insane to think
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: with that organization. This guy is basically a de tackle
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: that is just dominated across what ten fifteen years, I
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: mean not long he's been in the league now.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: But I think seventy five years. I think he was
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: an original member of the of the NFL.
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: Even that game last week, like they needed a couple
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: of big plays on a couple of Creek third and
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: he felt like he was always the one that made
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: the big play for them. Yeah, obviously it didn't matter
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: because they're just a terrible team. But yeah, this number
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: is crazy. Ch had at one point it was up
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: to fourteen and a half, the Saints number, so obviously
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: professional when has come in at this point bought it back.
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: It's at thirteen and a half. Now, I won't do it.
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: I won't take it at a bad number. It if
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: it gets back up to fourteen fourteen and a half,
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: I'm happy to give it out and take it again.
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: But I'm not chasing this number after it already moved,
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: and no one would be safe, no one would be
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: shocked if Tampa just absolutely rolls on Tampa. That Bucky
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: Irving Baker Mike Evans combo is just one right now, terrifying. Yeah,
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: so you just nailed it. Like the Saints have nothing
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: offensively that can keep up with this Bucks team. We'd
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: basically need a really really bad Baker game, which, honestly,
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: at fourteen and a half, I feel way comfortable betting
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: on that because it can happen, like we've seen the
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: time and time again, he can't turn the ball over,
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: give short field to this Saints team. But at thirteen
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: and a half, it's like, I'm not chasing in that
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: bad number. Give me a better number here, sportsbooks.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: Baker has fifteen picks. That's one behind Kirk Cousins. But
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: he's also on pace to earn two point five million
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: dollars in incentives for individual stats. Evan has a great
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: story up in Action network dot com. There's five different
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: stats that if he finishes top five in the NFC
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: or top ten in the league across completion, percentage, yards, touchdowns,
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: et cetera, he gets five hundred grand for each one,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: and he's well within the range for all of them
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: right now. So I got a feeling Baker's going to
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: go out there and he's going to sling it, which
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: could spell doom right for the Saints.
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: I saw a crazy article though, just about how Tom
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: Brady left New England. Look what happened to them. He
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: left Tampa and they've still been able to win the
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: division now and they could win it again this year,
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: two times, which is just insane to think about, Like
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: you lose arguably the best player in football history. One
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: team went the way they should have right, the completely
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: fell apart. I've just been in despair for the last
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: five six years. Baker the ultimate shavior of Tampa. Like
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: truly incredible. This man went from being scout team D
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: line with Carolina to now potentially back to back divisional
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: winner of the South. It's really remarkable what Baker's done.
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: Someone needs to do this story. I mean to call
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: some my NFL writer buddies and get them on this,
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: just to go back to my old days with signing stories.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: But what exactly happened with Baker and Sean McVay in
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: Los Angeles in that last month of the season a
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: couple of years ago, right, because he points that as
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: being like a pivotal moment in his career where he
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: learned so much about playing quarterback and he's been brilliant
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: since then, and like that was at the end of
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: a long road of journeyman type stuff. I think that
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: was the last stop before Tampa if I'm not mistaken,
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: But he says that's where you learn to play quarterback.
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: I'd love to be in the room there. That's a
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: great story. I gotta get Wickersham on that call. Wicker Sham,
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: have him do that, Carolina at Atlanta. Atlanta's ain't a
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: half point favorite, Simon, It's gone up from seven and
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: a half. I mean, we're gonna do it, you know.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: The the Falcons have to win and the Bucks need
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: to lose for them to get into the playoffs. Nobody's
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: gonna know what's happening in this game because they're both
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: playing at the same time. Here's the scenario. The Bucks
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: are crushing the Saints at halftime, the Falcons are demoralized,
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: the Panthers find a way to cover. I don't hate it.
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: Get to bet the Panthers one last time.
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: So I was so distraught I couldn't sleep after that
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: Atlanta loss. On Sunday night against watchingon, I end upuying
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: a flame thrower, no joke, no way. Yeah, that's how
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: much his teams affect in my life.
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: This Atlanta team.
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: What are you going to do with the flame thrower? Uh?
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: Give rid of black I don't want to. I don't
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: want to slip on any black ice.
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: So I'm just gonna whip out the flame thrower through
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: the driveway off so I can walk out to my car.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: But isn't that terrible for the concrete? Doesn't it create
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: cracks and stuff?
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: I don't think so. But it's legal as well.
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: It's considered a farm tool in America, so God bless America.
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: You can buy a flamethrower people online if you want
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: America made.
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: What were you just on Amazon? You're like, find me
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: a flame thrower?
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: No, I was just going through all the motions. I
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: think I was playing some World War two game. I
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: was like, why do I not own a flamethrower? I
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: own everything else? And it was pretty simple to get
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: get a flamethrow here in America. I can't help myself.
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: I'm betting Panthers at plus eight and a half. I've
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: already bet their money line. I love this as an
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: upset for this this Carolina team. This is going to
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: feel like an actual playoff game for Panix in this
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: Atlanta team. And I can just see them getting tight
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: and no one's be back on this Carolina team after
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: them just getting rolled and blown out.
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: But we've seen that the Panthers. They bounced back from
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: those embarrassing losses.
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: And you know, Bryce Young obviously didn't play well last week.
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: I like him to bounce back.
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I, as people can tell, I just love
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: this Panthers team, especially now that's plus eight and a half.
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: Can't quit them one last time. Chad, give me the
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: Panthers in twenty twenty four.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: I feel like we have to, just because you got
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: to complete the circle. And you knows as smart as
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: we've been about Tennessee, we've we've been right about Carolina
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: the second half of the year. Obviously, not last week.
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: That was the first loss though we were five and
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: zero betting them. Yea, we were in a nice streak
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: with them. That was our first loss.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: I got. I got no issues going back to Carolina, Obviously,
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: I said, I feel like we're going to have to
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: do it. I'm glad we're doing it.
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: Plus three forty on the money line shocked the world.
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, we know they'll be in the money
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: line underdog round robin and probably in the bed. Three
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: sixty five boosted parlay Chicago at Green Bay. So the
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: Packers can only move up from the seventh seed and
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: facing the Eagles if the Commanders lose to Dallas. So
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: they're both playing at one at one pm, so we
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: could have another scoreboard watching situation like we have with Atlanta.
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: A couple stats because I can't decide if we assume
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: this is a normal handicap or not. I haven't seen
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: anything from Laflor to indicate which way they're going to go.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: My sense is they're at least going to start their starters,
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: see how the game is going, and if there's no chance,
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: maybe they pull them. So there's a couple systems that
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: the Bears fit. The Bears have a winning percentage of
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: less than twenty five percent. They are a bad team
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: in this scenario going against a good team that since
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: Week five has been covering by more than five points
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: per game, So that is the Packers. The team in
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: the bad team in the scenario covers fifty nine percent
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: of the time. Plus the Bears getting less than thirty
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets. I mean they're getting faded by
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: the public. They just scored single digits three points against
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: the Sea how at home, you know, so they cover
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: sixty percent of the time in this scenario. Two systems
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: both north of you know, one hundred and fifty close
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: to two hundred you know games as a sample set.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: But I'm not backing the Bears here.
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: No all right, I'm I'm all in on them. I
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: love them. I bet their money line as well for
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: this one.
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: I'm just Jesus Christ, I'm a sucker for these Week
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: eighteen games in the sense that I just love these
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: dogs in these exact spots of what you just talked about.
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: Everyone is totally out on this Bears team. The only
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: unfortunate part was this was ten and this numbers now
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: moved down to nine, nine and a half of most books.
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: I was really hoping we'd get the ten.
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: It'll go back up. I guarantee it'll go back up
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: before this game is kicking off.
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: I think you just touched on the key though, is
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: what Laflour's gonna say during the week. I think that
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: as is gonna dictate this line. Like if Laflooryd's basically
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: tell us people like, Okay, we'll pull starters in the
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: second half or whatever. If you know Commanders are winning
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: big against Dallas, whatever it may be, I think there
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: is value here to take advantage of. Then. I mean,
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: I remember when these teams played last time. I know
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: that feels like a lifetime ago. Because of the coaching
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: change and how bad the Bears have been down the
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: stretch here. But you know, the Bears, they should have
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: beat them, they should have upset them. And it seems
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: like this Bears team actually matches up pretty well against
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: this Green Bay team.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: So they don't, No, they don't. The Bears do not
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: know how to play defense.
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: They held Seattle to sixth coven on in.
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: The rain and a shitty night in Chicago on Thursday.
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: Those Thursday night games. You can't take anything defensively on
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: those games. And by the way, the Bears still don't
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: know how to score in the first half. They're going
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: to need to score thirty points in the second half
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: to cover this spread. I swear to God because because
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: what's gonna happen is lafleur. If anything, I would say,
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: let's take the Packers first half and then and let's
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: take the Bears second half.
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: We can do that. But yeah, for our pick contest
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: obviously doesn't work, now, you know, I just these are
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: the type of games that just the Bears win. This
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: a meaningless game that affects their draft position. That's another reason.
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: It's just like you just said, they're just everything they
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: do they do to torture their fan base. And this
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: feels like another game. But you wouldn't be happy if
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: they beat Green Bay. I mean when the last time
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: you guys beat Green Bay?
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: I don't care. It's not even a rivalry shit, So.
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know. It's it's really about the number. Yeah,
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: I'm not rushing to bet this one because Chad's right,
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: this could easily go back up depending what quotes come
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: out this weekend. We've already missed the ten, so I'm
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: not going to rush that bet at but it's definitely
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: a game on my radar of a dog.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: I like bears, haven't won a road game on a
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: Sunday in three full calendar years, twenty straight games. The
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: last QP to do it in this spot Nick Foles
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: December of twenty one. There you go. He's the only guy.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: He's the only quarterback who can make us both happy Giants.
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: Willy, you guys, didn't you go up to New England
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: and beat New England on the road on a Thursday
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: night game or something like that?
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: I said, Sunday.
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: Oh fuck, that's a good disclaimer.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: Sunday Okay, Yeah, New England and Philly, Philly is this
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: is priced as if Philly is benching. Everyone has moved
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: from four and a half to three. Giants, you know,
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: had the number one pick, and now it's over. If
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: they win, they could actually fall out of the top five.
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: My week, neighbors, I think wants to go off in
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: this game. And this is one of those games where
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: you back the team with a win percentage of twenty
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: five percent or less. So the Giants are just stupid
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: enough to keep trying to win here, and.
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: I'm pissed the move. This was gonna be my signment,
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: says play. I loved it. It was four when we
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: talked about Sunday, and like you just said, it's now,
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: it's down to three. At most books still would better now.
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: I still think it's gonna keep dropping. Obviously, Terry McKee
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: looked good for his four passes. He came in and
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: played for the Eagles. But you expect the Giants to
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: keep playing hard with the Eagles. This is a vacation week.
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: I know they're gonna their backups in there. We're gonna
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: be trying, but you know, just looking at this matchup,
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: it just feels like another game that as the game
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: goes along, Eagles will keep pulling out guys right, putting
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: special teamers in the play linebacker, safety, or corner, like
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: just giving them reps in time that they never get
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: in the regular season. And the flip side of the Giants.
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: I totally get why people want to fade them. Right
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: after Drew Lock's best game, you expect it to drop off, right,
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: You expect them they'll just lay down and have a
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: bad game here. But I think Chad's right, like this
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: just feels like another team that could script their draft position,
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: come out, play hard. You know, they don't care, like
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: they just they want to win. They don't care about
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: what the draft. They don't even if they be on
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: this team next year, let alone. So yeah, just all
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: about the number. Feels like this is still too high
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: plus three. The value just is all on this Giants team.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: At this point, Chargers are five point favorites against five
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against the Raiders. The Chargers
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: kind of know what they need. When they play Steelers win,
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: Chargers will be a six seed. If the Steelers lose,
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: then the Chargers have to win to be the fifth seed.
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: At five, they get the Texans at six, they get
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: the rate events. Do we take the Chargers now as
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: a hedge in case the Steelers lose and this line
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: goes up because of motivation. Normally you'd want to fade
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: the favorite against the bad team.
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: But.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: We like playing the Chargers. They don't stop trying, especially
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: if they have a little bit of motivation. And I
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: think we're at the top of the market on the Raiders.
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's interesting.
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: A lot of pros I've talked to Chad, they actually
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: really like the Raiders here. They like this r they do.
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: I know why, because the pros all season long they
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: like the shitty teams that are underdogs and that's why
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: they've been fucking losing.
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: Not even that, I think it's it's more about how
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: they've been playing down the stretch here, Like they've been
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: really competitive against bad teams. And I think I agree
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: with you and the fact that this Chargers team is
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: such a huge step.
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: Above those teams they've been being up on.
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: Like this is a legit good team that you know,
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: Vegas is gonna have an O'Connell making mistakes, They're not
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: going to get the ball back right. This Chargers team
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: is going to dominate them if they do make the
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: stupid mistakes. So nothing changed for me. I'm still with
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: you on the Chargers team still like at a five
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: and a half. You know, I get where the pros
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: are coming from. The Vegas has been playing better, but this,
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: this Chargers team just feels like they're.
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: Hitting on every level right now.
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: Like they just seem like so in control offensively, defensively,
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: it feels like they found their identity as well. Like
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: even Khalil Mack and Bosa have been playing really well
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: down the stretchers. So yeah, Chargers team is probably a
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: little underrated here at this point. Chad, You're right, this
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: probably could get up to six and a half seven
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: by kickoff if they are playing all out for this game.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, totally. Okay, are you ready four my executive decision?
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: Do it?
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: I'm going with a road favorite, the Seattle Seahawks minus
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: three against the Los Angeles Rams. The choice between the
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: unthinkable and the impossible?
• 54:59
  Speaker 3: Are you Heavyrwners? Thanks for your executive decision.
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: The Rams actually have something to play for. If they win,
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: they get the three seed. They play Green Bay or
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: Washington at home. If they lose, they played Minnesota Detroit
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: at home. But Sean McVay set on his radio show
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: yesterday this is how deep we go that he's leaning
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: towards resting his starters. He even said he was excited
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: to see how Jimmy Garoppolo could do. He's excited to
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: see how Blake Korham could do with more carries. Pretty
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: good indication to me that the Rams are going to
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: be resting the Seahawks while they beat the Bears. Are
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: still one of those teams where they're getting less than
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: thirty percent of the public ticket of the betting tickets,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: so the public is fading them, and they're coming off
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: a game in which they scored single digits. And then
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: there's this Gino is due four million dollars in incentive
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: if he throws for another one hundred and eighty six
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: yards and he finishes with a completion percentage of sixty
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: nine point seventy five. He's at seventy point two. So
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: for each of those he gets two million dollars. He's
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: going to come into this game. He's gonna want to
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: fire away. The Rams are going to be resting their starters.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: Give me the Seahawks and Gino going for four Mili
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: minus three.
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: I don't hate it.
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: And the only scary part is, yes, Seattle is not
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: playing for a single thing, right, Gino is the only
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: one really sounds like he's motive here.
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: I'm so there's other guys that have.
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: Money incentives, but yeah, the biggest thing to me is
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: just the fact that the Rams had a pretty bad
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: offensive line. Now they're putting their backups in with Jimmy Garoppolo. Like,
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: to me, that's that makes you really fired up to
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: back the Seattle team. That they do have a good
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: pass rush, and like we just said, they're playing their
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: starters so that they're gonna playing their So I agree
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: with you.
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: I like Seattle in the.
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: Spot, especially the fact that we're getting against a Ramps.
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: Seem that there are another team that's top heavy, right
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: there are Stars and scrub team, and they've drafted well
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: now like these last couple of years, they have drafted
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: really well, and they have some really good young talent.
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: I've read that none of those kids are going to
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: play either. Like McVeigh is basically going to set all
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: these guys. Try to give them this by a week
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: so huge deal. Like Chad just said, if you can
• 57:23
  Speaker 3: get them minus three, that's that's really a great number
• 57:26
  Speaker 3: for the Seattle team.
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: I'm glad We're in an agreement on that. I also
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: like that they've got a first year coach. They're going
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: to want to finish as strong as they can. They
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: want to win as many games as they can. A
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: lot of these guys are going to be back next year,
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: so it is going to matter to them how they
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: finish the season, how they show up on tape. Miami
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: at the New York Jets. The Jets are plus one,
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: two is still questionable. Miami is only in if Denver
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: loses to case. I'm not sure. I'm worried about the
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: quarterback status here, to be honest, Like we were willing
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: to bet Huntley, you know, back in the day in
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: the playoffs against good teams, and he played well against
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: the Browns. Eighty percent of his passes were completed twenty
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: two to twenty six to twenty five in a touch like,
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: what are the Jets plan for here? It makes no
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: sense to me. There is money coming in on the
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: Jets right now. Why are professional betters week after week?
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: I know you to bet the Jets. Sauce Gardner and
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: Dj Reeder already talking about guys who quit. I know
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: we want to back the teams after a blowout, But
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: what are we doing here? This is just silly.
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: What if it's our guy, Tyra Taylor?
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: Though you think it will be, I don't know.
• 58:43
  Speaker 3: I've the stuff I read. It seems like the hate
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: is mutual between Rogers and ownership, and I would honestly
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: love for them to sit him so he can't get
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: his five hundredth passing touchdown. To Adam I mean to
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: Adams really wants Rogers, wants to do it with them.
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: I would love if they sat him, and they're just like, Nah,
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: you don't deserve it. I saw another really funny meme
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: and it was basically it was four quarterbacks played in
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: that Bills game. Three of them all had touchdowns passing.
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: The only one that did it was Aaron Rodgers. Yeah,
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: I mean Mitch u Bisky, tyrod Taylor just outshining Rogers.
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: So yeah, it's it's all bad in New York. And
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: you're right, Chet, I'm a sucker like these their professionals.
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: Immediately when I saw this number, I was like, oh,
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: I can't wait to bet the Jets, but time I've
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: had to sit on it. I don't want to put
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: any money any more money on this Jets team. Or
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: even involve myself in a game with them. So I
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: get if you're on Miami's side. It's the chalk the
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: public has been winning on these road favorites. Like, I'm
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: not going to try to talk anyone off bet in Miami.
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: I just my instincts. I can't do it, and I
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: just I hate the Jets at this point, I do
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: not want to put any more money in this team.
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: So this is the game I'm gonna happily pass on.
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: Wow, I'm surprised to hear that the dolph and seemed
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: like such the obvious play.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: The Dolphins suck. They got lucky as hell that the
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: Cleveland just laid down and died last week. So I
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 3: give you coming from though. Like as far as vibes go, Yeah,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: Miami is way better right now than this Jets team.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: Sempster's scoring Arizona, congrats to anyone like Evan Abrams who
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: bet the Cardinals is underdogs before the brock Purty injury
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: last night. Yeah, questionable status like to me given the
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: injury status, uh, and the Cards now with three point favorites,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: this is a game, Like, we got plenty of games
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: we can choose from. For five we got two more
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: games more to discuss. I don't have a strong opinion
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: on this game.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's looking like the pastor not's gonna be the quarterback, right,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: So pretty pretty insane. Now that Brock purty reinjured that
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: elbow he had surgery on what was a year and
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: a half ago.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: He said it wasn't the elbow. Everyone has been saying
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: that it feels okay, nerves. I haven't seen the latest updates.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: That was what I saw before we came on the
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: air today, so you know what, what's new. Supposed to
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: get some MRI today. But he was saying yesterday that
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: it was more nerves than elbow.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: That's why I thought was elbow though, because that is
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: all connected to your your hands and your fingers where
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: he couldn't grip the ball apparently, and it's like that
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: that's usually it could be something frequent, it's a back
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: problem or like these doctors are saying that could be
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: from his elbow surgery. So maybe he's just trying to
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: say face. We know obviously, you know, big off season
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: for Purdy. He's trying to get a contract right now,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: and you know, I was looking like he's basically gonna
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: lock it up in that game if they felt like
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: if they had won that game and he didn't have
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: those true those two interceptions, it felt like they probably
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: would end up giveting the deal. But that that second pick,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 3: they showed John Lynch up in the box of just
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 3: pure disgusted.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, you could see the money draining from his
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: bank account as he threw those picks and Kyle Shanahan
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: going nuts, going he's so mad. He's so mad that
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: he's got to cover his face with the play sheet
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: when he's talking into the mic after that first overthrow
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: interception that Purty threw, Like you can't imagine what he
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: was saying. I haven't seen the press conference to see
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: if anyone asked what he was saying, because it was
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: so obvious and such a great piece of television video
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: to see him just losing and then John Lynch losing
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: his mind after the second one. Those were not good
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: throws and like he was brilliant, but those were money
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: losing throws last night.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 3: But I mean, I saw a lot of the tweets
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 3: about it, like this has been the problem with Brock Purdy.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: When his team is behind, he is horrible statistically, Like
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 3: he has I believe when he's been trailing in his career,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: he has three touchdowns to seven interceptions. Like, he's just
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: struggled really bad in those exact scenarios where he's coming
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 3: from behind, need to push the ball downfield and the
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: defense knows he's having to push the ball downfield, and
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: he struggled. So my immaily thought was like Sam Darnod
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 3: agent just texting a bunch of money bags to John
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: Lynch like that. That's me my first initial thought. So, yeah,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: in this game, it's all about where the number goes, Chad,
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: if this gets up to three and a half, how
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 3: do we not fail? Fade Kyler Murray Like this is
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: the exact game he does not win. He's just he's
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: been so disappointed Kyler Murray. And you know, I am
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 3: tempteded to forty nineers here, but you just said it's
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 3: like I'm on a rush about this one. There's plenty
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 3: of other games I'm happy to bet where we have
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: more infos. So once again, if it gets them three
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: and a half, four, I almost like you gonna be
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: the forty nine ers at this point, I'm not betting it.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: Casey at Denver. Denver's a ten point favorite. I just
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: keep feeling like this number is so high. And the Chiefs,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs are a one loss team who have been
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: playing second stringers in various positions all season long. I
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: know they're gonna play Carson Wentz. But if anybody can
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: make Carson Wentz a serviceable quarterback and put him in
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: the position to make the exact right play at the
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: exact right time three or four times in the game,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: isn't it Andy Reid against like bow Knicks, who I
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: have a great stat for you, great stat. But let's
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: be serious about bo Nicks. He's been throwing picks like
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: he's just like he just gives the ball away the
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: last four or five games, including against the Bengals. So
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: why am I so confident in a Denver team is
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: a ten point favorite. I know they got to win,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: but feels like a lot.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and this is going to be part of my
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 3: little money line round Robin brother. Like the Chiefs plus
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: three ninety, you know, Bears plus three ten, and the capitolf.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: Of Carolina plus three forty.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: I just I think all these numbers too big, too much,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: you respect, and that any of these teams could pull
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 3: an upset on these teams, and you know the public
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 3: perception of the Chiefs will just roll over and die
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: here and that they want this team to win in Denver, right,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 3: they'd much rather have the Denver make the playoffs.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: How does that help them in any way?
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: Denver is going to play the Bills like they don't care.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 3: They're trying to win this game. Especially Carson Wentz, this
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: is a big mum for him to show off that
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: he's still got it and he's hoping to get picked
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: up by another team. And we've seen that in these
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: last weeks, right. I mean the one that really jumps
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: out to me will always be the teams that start
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: the backup quarterback and they could come out and just
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 3: like the light it up and they can get a
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: contract that way. And this feels like this exact scenario
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: for Carson Wentz and I agree. You know, the fear
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: is this Chiefs offensive line is really really bad, even
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: the starters, that their backups are going to be absolutely brutal,
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: and denverroll be able to attack that. I think there's
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: gonna be ways for Rain to redaccounter that, like he's
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: no dummy. If he needs to keep another tight ending
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: and keep their running back in there. He'll do that happily.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: And we've seen with Carson Wentz that he can have
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: a game where he can look like an all pro,
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: or he can go the other way. He can just
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: be absolutely terrible from the get go right and we're
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 3: burned right away. But at ten points, we have a
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 3: lot of built in insurance on that, like we're it's
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 3: already built in the fact that this is all backups
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 3: and Carson Wentz can struggle in these tepe scenarios. So
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: you're right, ten point being a ten point favorite for
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: a rookie way way too many points, way too much respect.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: And I think the.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 3: Not the books, but the public is really like, there's
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: no chance this Chiefs team is gonna win or cover
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: this number. Now I've seen some like smart books have
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: taken some really smart money all this Chiefs team, and
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: they even against it, have moved it up. So they
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: moved it from nine to nine and a half up
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 3: to ten. So a little nerve wracking because it's basically
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: them taking a stand here on this Denver team. But
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: I do love this spot for this Chiefs team, even
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 3: with Carson Wentz.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: So let me lay the stat on you ready Bonix
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: has closed as a favorite seven times and teen career starts.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Evan seven and oh straight up and against
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: the spread, covering by twelve point one points per game,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: the lone remaining QB undefeated against the spread as a
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: favorite this year.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that is in insane set seven and zero. That's crazy.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: It's crazy, right because he was.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: So dominant on the as a road as a road
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: you know, bet, Like that's why we loved him yes
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: week is he had basically covered every week as a
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: road road dog. So that's that's that's an insane run
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: he's been on.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: All good streaks come to an end, and I believe
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: this could be the week.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: Let's go.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: That's Minnesota at Detroit.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: I love this freaking team. I love the coaches, I
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: love the players, I love everything about it. Man, we
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 3: are so freaking hardened. Even when she doesn't go the
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 3: way we want it to, maybe you find a way.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: Look, I love the NFL. They're so fucking smart. Like
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: they made us all wait until Monday to get the schedule.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: Then they've got it all worked out, so no team
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: knows like their situation except for one or two until
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: they all play at the same time. It's just it's
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: so good, and then they cap it with the game.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: When they made the schedule, they're hopeing like these late
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: season division games will have a scenario like this Minnesota Detroit,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: Detroit's two and a half point favorite. I'm a little
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: surprised this hasn't moved in the Vikings direction after last
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: night because everything the Niners did, which is everything the
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: Bills did a couple of weeks earlier, which is everything
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: the Packers did against the Lions the week before, that
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: is what the Vikings can do. Move the ball with
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: ease against a beaten up and beaten down defense. The
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: total has moved since last night from fifty two and
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: a half to fifty seven and a half, highest total
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: in a game since twenty twenty one. I still like Detroit.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 3: Now let's go from Let's start from the top. Though
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 3: this is basically before the season started, me and Chad
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 3: talk about our favorite team to win this division.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: We both like Detroit.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 3: I already talked about I like parlaye these divisional winners together.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 3: So if you are someone that followed that and you
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 3: have Detroit paired with the Chiefs and the Eagles or whoever,
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 3: This is like the dream scenario for hedging, like if
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 3: you can get especially if you can find a plus three,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 3: I don't know if it's going to get back to it.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: You might have to unfortunately buy half a point to
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 3: get up to that plus three. But we already talked
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 3: about this one. This feels like whoever's the possession last
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 3: wins this game Like this, both defenses we know can
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 3: be moved against, like they're the Vikings have been a
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 3: team that have excelled this season because of takeaways. Right,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 3: That's kind of been the thing that the saving grace
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 3: for that defense that you know just doesn't have that
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: much talent, right that we knew that coming to the season,
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 3: but between scheme and takeaways, they've been able to really
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 3: piece it together defensively. On Detroit side, Oh my god, Chad,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 3: like they just have nothing nothing.
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: It's it's so sad to watch, Like the sideline shots
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: of Aaron Glenn, the poor guy, Like he's just he's
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: looking down at his play sheet and he's got those
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: fun glasses on they're always a different color, and he's
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: just he's looking for answers. He's yelling into his headset.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: There's just there's nothing they can do, like literally nothing.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: They just they're the Saints' offense, only you know, like
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: they just don't have the players, and they desperately desperately
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: need to win this game. They desperately desperately need to
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: buy to get some guys some rest, to get some
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: guys healthy so they can get two or three guys
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: back by the time they're playing in the playoffs. I
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: don't know how they're going to stop the Vikings, and
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 3: Who's betting Detroit. Honestly, after watching that game, I said,
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 3: I wanted to be on Detroit. When it was two
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 3: and a half, I was like, that feels like the
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: right number for them. But after watching that defenseive seeing
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 3: how their linebackers play, they have no speed. They have
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 3: no speed in the middle of the field. That means
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 3: you can attack the middle of the field at any
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: time you want, and we know that's what O'Connor wants
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 3: to do here.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: So Yeah, Sam Donaldi ist Sam Donald has been brilliant
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: throwing between the numbers this year, and.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 3: It's interesting looking at the early money here in the
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 3: action app. It's it's basically all Detroit, which is honestly surprising. Yeah,
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 3: the fact that this team is on a short week
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: and they're already devastated all those like we talked about
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: all those injuries. You know, I think they were talking
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 3: about the broadcast last night. They had one of the
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 3: earliest bye weeks in the whole season. So it's like
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 3: not a good matchup for a spot for this team.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: And you know, maybe it's a human all of it
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 3: to me, but I just I want the Vikings to
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 3: get this one seed at this point. Like as much
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: as I love this Detroit team, and I've already said
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 3: I'm on record about it, like Detroit the Bills heading
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: to this Super Bowl run. If I had to pick
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 3: a seam outside the Eagles, these are the teams I
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 3: want to win the Super Bowl. I love Detroit's fan base,
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 3: Bill's fan base, two best fan bases. No one has
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 3: been through more hell in those two fans. I mean,
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: guess the Browns. But like they broke the curse last year, right,
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 3: they had one playoff win in fifty years. They won
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 3: two playoff games last year. It was all lined up
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 3: for Detroit and they just got screwed, Like they got
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: screwed by injury bug. And you know, man Campbell he's
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 3: gonna be aggressive, he's gonna keep doing his fourth down thing,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: and you know Ben Johnson is just in his back
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 3: calling these great plays in these really unique situations. It's
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 3: gonna catch them. Like they they of all the teams
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 3: in the playoffs, they need the most amount of luck
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 3: because of how bad their defense is. And they basically
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 3: if golf has an off day, they're dead. That's the
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 3: honest truth. Like they, he is so dependent on right now.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 3: Obviously he's not an MVP discussion, but I mean he
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 3: should be. The way he's carried this team down the
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 3: stretch with all their injuries they've had, it's just been remarkable.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 3: So it's pain for him. It's pain for painful to
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: do right now, Chad. But I do love the Vikings.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 3: I think it's very telling. The books are holding strong
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: right now two and a half, So I'm not gonna
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 3: rush to bed Vikings, cause I do think maybe we'll
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 3: get back to a three with all this public lovel
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 3: in Detroit. But man, it's in a normal year, a
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 3: year where the books are right and laying good numbers
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: and people doubt the dog, this would be one of
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 3: my bigger bets. I love this spot so much for Minnesota.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: I just think offensively they're actually better to me in
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 3: my opinion.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: I think defensively they.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 3: Still have the guys who are healthy enough to.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: Make game changing plays.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: For Detroit, they just don't have the piece of defensively
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 3: to make the game changing plays like I know they
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: have right now. It was other safety that's leading the
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: league in interceptions. I forget who it is.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: Kirby Joseph.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, incredible season. But it's like, I don't know,
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: there's ways they can get around that on the Vikings team.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I can't believe it, but I do love
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 3: this Vikings here.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: Plus two and a half, Well, you need miracles like
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: Kirby Joseph last night with two picks against brock Perdity.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: Otherwise I don't know if they win that game. It's
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: funny you mentioned we talked about that was one of
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: our five picks, and in the middle of the game,
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: and you said you thought it was a dead bet.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: We're one and four. I had kind of forgotten. I'd
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: forgotten I bet the Lions minus three. I forgot we
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: had a minus three half in the contest. Well, I
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: was just I was actually just looking ahead and trying
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: to see, all right, has the number moved on the
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: Vikings yet? Because I was surprised with how badly the
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: lines defense was playing, thinking about the number not moving
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: because I was looking to sort of play the vikings
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: before the number got out of control. It hasn't and
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: it hasn't budged. No, And it's it's interesting to hear
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: you talk about the vikings because rationally, you're right. Emotionally,
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: I just want this Lion's team to win so bad.
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: Even as a Bears fan. I love Dan Campbell, I
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: love the story. I feel like with Ben Jonson, everyone
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: knows he's gone. This is this is a great shot
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: for them. I want them to get healthy. They deserve it.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: They deserve it for the way they pull See.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 3: This is probably my favorite team to watch. I do
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: believe this is my favorite team to watch this season.
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: Every game.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: Excite love this team, love their attitude. I want I
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: don't know if I can bet this game because I
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: want them to win so badly.
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: I don't want to throw the vikings in a teaser
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: then get up to eight and a half.
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: That's a nice number, all right, I'm gonna do that,
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: Like I can't. I just don't want to bet against.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 3: You can throw chargers in to win, outright, throw the
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 3: Vikings in the cover eight and a half.
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: That's a nice teezer.
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's what I'll do. That's that makes me feel better. Campbell,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: by the way, sixty four against the spreads as a
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: head coach. That is the best for any head coach
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: with a minimum twenty games in the Super Bowl era.
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 3: I listen, Man, just say that I'm proud of you.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 3: It would be a massive understatement composure to medication.
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: And how's this? The Lions the past four years seventy
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread. Don't forget Dan Campbell like a
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: short stint as the Dolphins head coach. That's why his
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: number isn't the same as the Lions. The best three
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: year against the spread stretch since the sixteen to eighteen
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: New England Patriots, and as of now, the best four
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: year stretch for any team in the Super Bowl era.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 3: And correct me if I'm wrong, Evan, but I have
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 3: this amazing memory of me and Chad Base We're all
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 3: in on this Detroit team and might have been twenty
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 3: twenty one. I was Man Campbell's first year and they're
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 3: zero for nine playing Minnesota. We had them in our
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 3: money line round robin. I believe it was fourth down,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 3: last play of the game. Jared Goff throws that touchdown
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: against the Vikings to get their first win of the
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 3: season for Detroit, And it's kind of full circle moment,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: like both these teams now three years later, fourteen and two.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 3: First time in history we've had two teams at fourteen
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 3: and two playing for their division and the loser will
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 3: be It's insane to think it'll be fourteen and three
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 3: and be the fifth seed. It's just I love this
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 3: matchup so much. This is this is truly a historical
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 3: game we're seeing here, all right.
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: Well, my exec decision on Seattle at minus three, since
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: I had mentioned it because I move numbers and it's
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: freakish how often it happens, is now up to four.
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 3: Charlotte A sharp, Sharp Sharp.
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: Chad Melman Sharp. As a reminder, The Favorite podcast is
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: presented by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: three six five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign up
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: using promo code. Favorites deposit ten dollars place a bet
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: At bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: older and presentent Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler or one eight
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Simon
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: and I We'll return next year in twenty twenty five
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: with our next episode of The Favorites. On the Action
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: Network YouTube page Lebonam Eastern Thursday to talk our final
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: best bets of the regular season. Download us from Spotify,
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: Apple Pods wherever you get your podse rate review, subscribing
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: with as five stars say whatever you want feedback is
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: a gift. Happy New Year. Until next time, Love you.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available.
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: Twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler