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Shapiroworld by Strictly Business · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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It's Monday, so it's time for Shapiro World with David Shapiro from Sasson
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Securities in Johannesburg.
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Here we are, David.
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The NASDAQ closed above 25,000 for the first time.
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The market's getting narrower, but the market's going up.
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Yeah, even today,
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I'm just watching it now and still absolutely intrigued by the way that the
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market's carrying on.
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And every time it goes up,
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more naysayers come to the fore or start calling this down.
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And even I was reading the report from Omaha,
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Berkshire's AGM.
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It's not the same.
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I think there were 12,000 people there.
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They only put 18,000 seats out.
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Normally, you get 40,000 when Buffett was around, although he's still there.
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And You know, I read through it and I said, why are you knocking this?
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You know, why are you knocking AI? You know, you can't keep applying these.
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And I mean, the old time values.
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I don't want to criticize Buffett or anything like that.
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But I'm saying there's something big happening here.
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You can't just ignore it and saying it almost doesn't exist.
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It's too expensive.
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It's going to come crashing down.
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You know, I can't see it that way.
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And what worries me, Lindsay, is that there are a lot of businesses.
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that are not preparing for what might happen.
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You know, we don't know what shape it's going to take, and we talk about that all
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the time.
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But something is happening.
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And as we spoke on Thursday, you know, people who have been invested in this have
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done well.
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Yes, and even if it does crack, it doesn't mean you're going to lose everything that
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you've invested in.
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So I'm starting to say, hold on, don't, you know, rather don't say anything.
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You can go your own way.
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as a so-called, and I'm going to put this in inverted commas, a value investor.
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But when I see what's happening now, the money that's being spent, the impact it's
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having on the
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US economy, you can't just turn your head and ignore that it's happening.
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No, you can't.
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But when you say companies that turn their back on it or don't embrace it, they're
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going to be the ones that suffer.
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How can you embrace something at a corporate level when you don't know what
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it is and when you don't know what form it's
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going to take?
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What if you're going to have an AI director or something that keeps trawling
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through the whole trawling is the word I'm
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looking for trawling through every single article and reading every single snippet
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of information about AI and then going
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back to the board and saying, we've got to do this and we've got to do that.
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The bloke will be dead in six months.
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Well, you've got operating businesses underneath you.
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And you've got to say, well, how are our operating companies doing?
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Can we?
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Can we match the competition?
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What are the opposition doing?
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And look, if you look at Berkshire,
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they've got a huge exposure to insurance, which opens the way.
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But I didn't get a feeling that they're embracing anything.
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They've got $350 billion in cash, which is about third of their market value.
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I know, it's more.
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Isn't investing 101 supposed to punish companies that have too much cash on their
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balance sheet?
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Yes, yes, especially if they're only getting 3.5% on it.
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So, you know, it's unfair of me to take on a man like Buffett.
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I mean, I have the utmost admiration for him and his philosophies.
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But, you know, I sit here every day looking at the screen and trying to
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understand exactly what
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you've asked companies to do.
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What does this mean?
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But when I see the money that's being generated and being put into data centers,
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it's obvious that this can't function without those data centers.
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And someone's got to put those up.
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Whether they end up giving you the kind of returns that you wanted, we don't know.
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But, you know, Viv just projected what could be earned, you know,
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in these languages.
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I mean, it's just phenomenal.
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So I'm saying that, okay, let's see, let this run.
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You know, let's see where this goes and how it develops before knocking it.
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You don't have to be stupid.
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You know, you don't have to be ridiculous and take wild bets that you can't support.
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But just watch it, you know, just monitor it.
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I asked the question of another fund manager in a previous podcast today.
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And I said, where is the $750 billion coming from?
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for capital expenditure that has been allocated to AI just for the next year.
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And that's probably actually been understated.
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It's probably more like a trillion that they're going to spend, something like
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that.
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But anyway, it's a lot of money.
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Where does it come from?
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And he said, well, they've been earning so much cash.
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It's not like the dot-com companies that weren't earning anything.
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These people are making real money.
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And they've got cash, but there's also private credit behind the scenes.
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Very, very willing.
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to raise money and lend to the really big tech companies and some of the
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medium-sized ones as well,
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and all the affiliated companies.
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So there's private credit, plus they borrow money in the normal way, you know,
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raising money through bonds and that sort of thing.
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But the fact is that it's there.
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The money is there, David.
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The only problem is, does the infrastructure surrounding the tech spend,
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the AI tech spend,
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is that going to be able to keep up?
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with that i mean you saw really well saying right there's a load of money uh do
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do something with it
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if you if you can't do something with it if you see i mean if energy is not there
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to justify the data
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centers because eventually if
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there's too many data centers then the grid collapses well there's no they're not
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enough at the moment i suppose you will
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get to a point where there are too many but we have we far from that at the moment
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so I,
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you know, as they roll out and these data centers, so we sit here and watch, you
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know,
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watch and say, OK, I'm going to have a little bit of that.
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And when you look at what the what what these companies produced in cash and it's
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incredible.
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But the other part of it is you need you can see what R&D does, what research and
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development does.
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I mean, NVIDIA...
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or not only NVIDIA,
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all these companies keep coming out with more and more sophisticated chips, you
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know,
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with more and more power.
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So your funding this development would have taken generations if there wasn't the
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kind of money to get the number of scientists and
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that.
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And I mean, that's the exciting part of it.
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And Lindsay, I use it all the time.
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You know, when I say I use it, and this is the interesting part.
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We still speak to investment analysts and it's lovely to talk to them and have their
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views on that.
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But if you need some quick information and you need to put something together, I
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mean,
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just call it over the counter.
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I mean, it's absolutely remarkable what you can get and the speed at which you can
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get it.
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I've got a lawyer friend and he's a top advocate.
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Yes.
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And what he does, he says that he would get an opinion.
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And I'm talking about a senior counsel who's been around for years.
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He says he would get an opinion, obviously, from his juniors, and he would
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have to work on it.
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You know what I mean?
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And then he's got an opinion, which goes into how many pages, and he's got to
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rework the English.
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And he says he puts it in,
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and what it would have taken him two days takes him an hour, something like that.
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Not that he's lost the essence of the opinion, But it's put it into...
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you know, it's gone through, where he's repeated himself, whatever it is, you
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know, he looks at it and says, okay,
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this is much better than I could have done.
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So it doesn't change the, as you say, it doesn't change what the person is driving
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at,
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what the person is saying should be done, or whether this person is guilty or not
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guilty,
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or how much we should ask for in a compensation case, whatever the case may
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be.
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It's actually just making it more digestible.
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Is that what you're saying?
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Exactly.
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He knows that that's the right opinion.
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It's just that we struggle over expression.
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You know, sometimes we repeat ourselves, we get clumsy, and you've got, you know
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what I mean,
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and you get these editors that just do it.
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Now, that can take days off your life.
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I'm giving you a very simple example, you know, of you know your subject.
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You know, I can look at something and say, look, you're a year old.
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You know, this is from 2025.
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Just give me the updated version.
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I apologize and I'll get more information as well.
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So there are a lot of things and we're at the low end of this.
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You know, they're friends of mine and that who are able to code and do things and do
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things at a lot more sophisticated
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levels than I can.
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But I mean,
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it's made my life so much more productive and so much easier.
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I don't sweat over the things that used to take me forever to try and express.
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Talking about redoing things, I'm just reading something now, which I read
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before,
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and I have to read it three times to realise that this is the President of the
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United States saying it.
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It was written at about 11.30pm, his time.
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So I don't know what he's doing at 11.30pm, but he should be asleep.
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It's about two pages long, and it was a...
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Truth Media post.
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Oh, God.
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And I just want to read you just a little bit of it.
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He's talking about Bill Maher.
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Do you know Bill Maher?
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Bill Maher?
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I know Bill Maher.
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Yeah, he's very good.
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I always think he's very good.
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He's clever.
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He's very good.
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And he went to dinner at the White House because he was invited by
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Trump because he'd said something nasty about Trump.
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And so he wanted to get together with him.
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And he said we got on really well afterwards and they were seen shaking
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hands and everything.
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And he says, um, Bill Maher is a weak and ineffective person who I got to know very
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well during my dinner with him at the White House.
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He was nervous, scared, and the first word he uttered as he entered the Oval Office
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were, can I have a drink?
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It was very endearing, but at the same time, absolutely pathetic.
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He was much different from what people think.
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But last night, I happened to watch Gavin Newscum,
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an admittedly low IQ person who can't read.
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And he took...
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Bill Maher over the coals, Bill Maher was defenceless,
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and it goes on and on and then it changes subject in mid-sentence.
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And I thought, this is ridiculous.
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And just at the end, because it still staggers me, you look weak, stupid and
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effective, and I hate seeing that.
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Don't use Bill Maher any longer as a representative of you.
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He's talking to Fox News now.
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I hate hearing that Bill Maher said, Bill Maher is a moron, though slightly more
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talented than Jimmy Kimmel.
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President Donald J.
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Trump.
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This is mad.
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That would be very,
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very easy to rejig by an AI bot or whatever.
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Well, you should do that.
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Do you know that?
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Look, I'm very, very careful about anything that I put out, and I always
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check the letters and that.
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Keep going over it.
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Read over it.
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Does it make sense?
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Does it explain what you want to say?
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And I mean,
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just to have these random kind of rants that are unintelligible is for a prison in
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the United States is mad.
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You know, there's people allowing to do so.
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You know what I mean?
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Is it because, David, he does it so much that we're numbed to it now?
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In other words, if he was someone like Barack Obama, Barack Hussein Obama, we
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can't call him just Barack Obama anymore.
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We have to put the Hussein thing in it as a little racist jibe, which is what Trump
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does all the time, which I also hate.
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But anyway, if suddenly Barack Obama had done something silly like that because
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he'd had
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too much wine at dinner or something,
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then there would be shock and horror and Congress would be called and they'd sit
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and discuss it and everything.
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But because it's 10 times a day, and I really mean 10 times a day, if you read
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his true social feed,
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Eventually, you just say, oh, so what?
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He does it every day.
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Does it matter?
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Does it really matter?
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Unfortunately, it does really matter, David.
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It does.
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You know what he's done?
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He's taken the US to the lowest common denominator.
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You know, it was always subject to criticism.
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But there were presidents that tried and tried to keep things level and fair and so
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on.
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But I just… I don't know what America stands for if this is the president.
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You know what I mean?
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The King of England came across that he remains, he's still a very dignified
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person,
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well-prepared, intelligent speeches and so on, you know,
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and he tries to maintain the dignity of the UK when he visits.
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You know, he's not going to put out those kind of true social comments or anything.
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Okay, admittedly, he's the head of state.
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is not the the Prime Minister.
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But, you know, you want America, if it can, you know,
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get back to some kind of dignity where the White House wasn't, you know,
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meant something or Congress meant something, where there was a dignity,
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where you respected your fellow person.
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Yes, you can criticize them.
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They go, if you go, you know, throughout history in the UK, the Westminster system,
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people would have a go at each other within Parliament.
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But there was a certain dignity outside of that.
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And that was parliament was full.
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But this is just low level.
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You know, you.
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It's very common, actually.
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He's obviously had a bad.
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We don't.
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Yeah.
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I've got you going on Trump and I shouldn't have done so.
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It was naughty of me.
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You got me on America.
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Yeah.
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And it's political America.
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It's not business America.
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It's political America.
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You know, where people hate each other.
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Do you worry about South Africa?
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Because I'm sitting in Europe now and there's talk of.
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a jet fuel running out,
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or at least being in short supply.
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And to have a European continent, which is so rich,
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and has just got such good infrastructure and everything, and such good processes,
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to not be able to get jet fuel, which is being projected,
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it's just unbelievable.
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And what was the point I was trying to make here?
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South Africa.
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That's it.
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Sorry, yes.
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And I was talking to somebody about the refining facilities and all that sort of
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thing.
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And just getting the stuff, first of all, to refine is going to be difficult.
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Do you think there might be a case that if the war goes on for a few more weeks or
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maybe even two or three months further,
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do you think that South Africa is going to be in deep trouble, not just trouble?
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We say no.
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And we say that there's plenty of fuel around, but it's going to be expensive.
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But even that could be a problem.
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The more expensive it gets, the more it weighs down on this economy in every
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respect, you know,
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just right through the supply chain.
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And that is my concern.
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The richer economies can handle it a lot better than we can.
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We're not a rich economy.
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We're a very poor economy.
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And, you know, made up of a lot of people who, I don't want to say live on the bread
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line, but we're...
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Each rand is very important to them.
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And they're very conscious of each rand that they earn.
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And when a huge amount of that is going just on transport, but not only that,
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it's also going to push up food prices, we are vulnerable.
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Yes.
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I don't want to stereotype the South African population, the majority of it,
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but the population does use taxis because there's no bus service to speak of and
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there's no
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train service to speak of either.
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So, Texas ordered...
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a terribly important part of the transport infrastructure.
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So they take taxis.
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The taxi driver, if he's paying more for his petrol, is not going to absorb that
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cost.
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He or she is going to pass it on to the passenger.
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And so that takes money out of the economy.
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And that takes money out of Trueworths and Fashini and ShopRite and everybody else.
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So it's a knock-on effect.
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I was looking at the crystal challenge today and the people at the bottom
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I'm number 425 David.
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I'm 425th and you're 269th.
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I looked at it today on LinkedIn.
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I know.
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I have to how can this be?
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But it's because I chose South African companies.
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You know why?
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It's such a simple competition.
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It's a great competition.
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But it's so revealing.
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You know why?
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Because Here you are at the beginning of the year, we all start off, and I'm in the
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same camp as you.
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You know, I thought that this was going to be a very good year for us.
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Interest rates coming down and improvement in global economy, spending picks up, you
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know, growth, whatever.
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And suddenly, someone bombs Iran, and that's it.
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And now we have an oil price at these levels.
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And it just shows you what happens, you know, how it affects markets.
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So it's a very important exercise.
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You chose it.
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You made your bed, sleep in it until the end of the year.
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I've got six months.
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How long have I got?
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Six months.
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When does it finish?
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Six months.
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But I mean, it does expose the vulnerabilities and the frailties of
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markets and how difficult it is because
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everybody on the outside just assumes it's easier.
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Okay, well, let's see you.
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You've got a big mouth.
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Choose five shares.
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That's all I'm asking.
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Choose five shares.
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A lot of people don't want to expose themselves to this competition, but that's
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the fun of it.
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Well, next year, your aim is to get 1,000 because it's gone up to nearly 500, and
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I'll help you with that.
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But, David, again, I got you off the point.
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The point is, is there a serious case for a serious downturn in South Africa, and
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not just on the stock market,
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but in household finances, in GDP growth, and everything else?
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Yes, definitely.
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And I don't think we're, you know what I mean, I don't think we're fully
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discounting it.
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I look at it all the time in terms of, you know, in terms of how the market's
19:22
performing.
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And, you know, from that point of view, yes, I am.
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I'm very, very cautious.
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I wouldn't.
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I don't know where to go in South Africa.
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You know, I've got no feeling of where it's safe.
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You know, I'm looking at the market as we talk at the moment.
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It's all over the place.
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Iran's now at 1673. Gold's not performing well.
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I know there's worries, but it shouldn't worry about interest rates.
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You know what I mean?
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Gold is a protection.
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It's a safe haven.
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You don't worry about interest rates.
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if you're buying a safe haven, you're buying your safety, you know, something
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you put in your pocket and run away with.
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And it's coming down.
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Platinum's coming down.
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So, excuse me.
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So I look at it and say, no, this is not performing well.
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This is not doing what it should be.
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And there's still a lot of strategists out there, investment officers who are still
20:24
forecasting gold.
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I might be wrong.
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But when it gets down to 45, having been where it was, that to me is weakness.
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And it needs a massive turnaround in things, you know, falling interest rates
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and so on,
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and pressure on the United States to bring them back.
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So from my point of view, you know, that area of the market is still vulnerable.
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NASPAS process have not performed.
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Tencent has been under pressure this year.
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It's been down 20-odd percent.
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It's not showing any kind of turnaround at the moment.
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That's reflecting on our markets.
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I say, well, where do we go?
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ABN Bevel or British American Tobacco.
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I don't buy those stocks.
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So anyway.
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Okay, so you're cautious.
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You've always been cautious, but you've been cautious now.
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Never mind the crystal challenge.
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Nobody could have predicted what happened in March or end of February whenever it
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was.
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But, OK, David, thank you very much for that.
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Congratulations on sticking to your guns and staying with the AI boom.
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And even though there were bombs going off, the boom was still going on as well.
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So well done.
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And long may it continue.
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And you let me know when you're going to, I'm sure you will, where you're going to
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start to say, well, no, enough is enough now.
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Is enough enough in the premiership?
21:43
Because I think Arsenal's 3-0 win against Fulham.
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And the confidence in the team, which has suddenly returned, injuries
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notwithstanding,
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they are now four goals better off and six points better off than Manchester City.
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If City draw tonight, then quite honestly, it's probably all over.
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If they lose tonight, definitely all over.
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And well done to Arsenal because they were teetering at one point.
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It's a pusher on Pip.
22:09
Yeah.
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I think, you know what he did?
22:13
Arteta, he just changed the composition of his team.
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He brought in this youngster, Miles Kelly.
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What's it?
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Yeah.
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Anyway, double-barrel names.
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But from Zubamendi, who was always cautious, a great player, an Italian
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defence-type player,
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and he made the difference.
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And Trossard decided to turn up for a game, so they had a completely different
22:40
attitude.
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Saka also, after his absence, was superb.
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Gosh, wasn't he good for that first goal?
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I mean, the Fulham defender actually fell over without being touched because he was
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spinning around so much trying to track Saka.
22:55
It was very funny.
22:57
But I had to think of you yesterday.
22:59
I thought of you when I was watching the Man United-Liverpool game.
23:03
And I saw, first of all, I saw Main who just… Pass it straight to Zubov, to what's
23:08
his name?
23:09
Slobberstark.
23:13
And then to Cody Gagpo.
23:14
And then the goalkeeper.
23:15
I mean, the goalkeeper said, you don't have a free shot.
23:18
You tunnel up, cruising to victory, and suddenly it's 2-2 all again.
23:23
You know, lucky that Liverpool are so bad.
23:25
I mean, which allowed Man Utd to come back.
23:29
I mean, I just thought of you and the goalkeepers.
23:31
It infuriates me.
23:34
And the worst is Aston Villa's goalkeeper, Martinez.
23:37
I can go, I just say, get on with it.
23:39
He stands there for minutes just looking.
23:42
And the whole game comes to a stop.
23:44
I said, no wonder you lose.
23:46
You know, everybody's stuck.
23:47
They can't get their engines going.
23:50
It's hypocritical because what they're saying is we don't want to go back to the
23:54
70s or the 80s when a goalkeeper will get the ball and just punt it upfield.
23:58
We've got to play out from the back.
23:59
It all started with Barcelona, with Pep.
24:02
or actually with Johan Cruyff when he was the manager of Barcelona, the tiki-taka,
24:08
and everyone thinks that they're Barcelona.
24:10
I can tell you I've seen so many Ipswich goals this season being lost because they
24:13
think they're Barcelona.
24:15
Trust me, they're not Barcelona.
24:17
It just drives me mad.
24:19
I like a scop upfield, you know, but you've got to have the right kind of
24:23
forwards up there.
24:25
This is where the hypocrisy comes in, because if you don't like punting the ball
24:30
upfield from the goalkeeper, why is there such a sudden trend?
24:32
for long throws that just get punted into the box and the ball ping-pongs around a
24:35
bit.
24:36
Exactly.
24:36
It's the same principle.
24:40
Okay, David.
24:42
Thank you very much indeed.
24:43
Oh, did you do any reading over the weekend?
24:45
Let's get back to it.
24:45
Did you do anything interesting?
24:48
There wasn't much that came out, actually.
24:52
You actually covered it.
24:53
It's all around the oil price.
24:55
And I think also a lot around the numbers that came out from the tech companies,
25:00
which we've already covered, which I thought were superb and continue to
25:07
dominate where the market is at the
25:09
moment.
25:11
I'm looking now.
25:13
It's hovering, but the NASDAQ is up again.
25:14
The S&P is up slightly, but still.
25:17
At least the buyers haven't abandoned this market.
25:21
I can't say that about the JSC.
25:23
It's under quite a bit of pressure at the moment.
25:26
And I think for the reasons that we've covered, you know, people are nervous.
25:33
On Thursday, remind me to ask Viv about AGI.
25:38
Is it artificial general intelligence?
25:42
Generative.
25:43
Generative intelligence.
25:45
You've got a genetic and generative AI.
25:49
What does it mean?
25:49
It's the next level of AI that comes in that makes you more intelligent than a
25:54
human or something.
25:56
I don't know what it is.
25:58
That goes up from a genetic is where it writes its own code.
25:59
A generative is what we do.
26:00
We ask it questions.
26:03
There is a new one, though, that people are too afraid to unleash on the world
26:10
because the robots will start
26:12
taking over.
26:14
Anyway, I got impersonated, you know, and uh
26:16
There's an Instagram taken of me sitting here, and I haven't heard it yet,
26:23
etc., but people keep asking me, is that you?
26:25
I said, no, but I want to know about the impersonator.
26:28
Is he getting clients?
26:29
Because he might be onto something.
26:31
Maybe giving three stock tips a day is a way to get clients and to build our firm,
26:37
which this impersonator is doing.
26:40
So I'm a bit flattered by it, but I mean, I would like to see his results to see if
26:47
people are really… you know, joining him.
26:49
That's interesting.
26:51
We'll speak about that personally.
26:51
Okay.
26:52
David, thank you very much.
26:54
David Shapiro from Assassin Securities, I think, and he's in Johannesburg.
26:57
That was Shapiro World.
26:59
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