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A Look At Retail, Markets, And Supply Chain Struggles · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. We have a perfect
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: segue there. Talking about retail sales, Greg Jarrett, we have
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Angie Solanki joining US, National director of Retail for US Colliers. Uh, Angelie,
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Here is Greg was
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: just mentioning really strong retail sales coming out this morning.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: You know, what do you make of it, because again
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: across the board the West, some concerned about the consumer,
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: but some really strong numbers this morning. Yeah, we're actually
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: quite surprised and also excited. I mean, we're forecasting for
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: year and somewhere around six percent increase in holiday sales,
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: and we just feel that people are still looking to
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: get back into the stores. The traffic is back. We
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: saw about eighty three to increase in foot traffic, whether
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: it was department stores, apparel stores, or beauty So people
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: are getting ready for the holidays. Is there going to
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: be enough stuff for them to buy? I mean, I'm
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: I'm already having visions of walking into the Toys r
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Us and seeing the shelves empty, although I don't know
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: they'll be walking into a Toys are Why aren't you
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: walking into a Toys r Us for Steve there? Yeah,
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: find a different store. But yeah, there aren't any more
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: or less in terms of physical stores. However, we do
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: still have the same concerns. So, you know, holidays shopping,
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: although it is starting early, we definitely think the reason
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: why is because shoppers are a bit worried about the
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: supply chain, may feel Holidays away from them, so they're
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: going to be potentially less merchandise well just may not
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: arrive on time. So there is you know, those concerns
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: still do exist. Um, so we'll probably see an early
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: shopping spree and that's going to actually, I think help,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: although um retailers hopefully are well prepared for this. Yeah,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: that's kind of where I wanted to go, because we
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: don't hear from the retail companies in terms of earnings
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: for a couple more weeks here. I mean, what are
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: the retailers saying about their inventories are about their ability
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: to get product when it's needed, because boy, we're hearing
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: it from so many others that there wrote backups at
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: the ports. For example, there's lacks of lack of truck drivers,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: trains are backed up, the containers and everywhere you look.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: It seems to really be a big issue. Yeah, it's
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: a bit of a mis uh mismatch. And what I
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: mean by that is possibly what is occurring right now.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Some retailers are receiving shipments that were prior season, so
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: that now they're conflicted with hold on a second, I
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: don't even have my holiday shipment. Now I have my
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: prior season merchandise. How am I going to put that
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: into the store? Do I need to discount that? So
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: the pressure that is being pushed onto retailers is just
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: it's just all over the map. And I feel for
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: them because it's a big struggle. Um, not only are
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: they struggling with you know, the merchandise coming in on
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: time or over a merchandise meaning that they probably have
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: either received multiple orders two or three times what they
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: planned for, So now they may have too much merchandise
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: during the holiday season, and will that extend their holiday
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: potential sales into January February. By the way, do you
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: think we saw savings rates jump during the pandemic and
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: they've come back down stabilized a couple of percentage points
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: above the historical average. Do consumers spend down back to
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: you know, the norm? I know we're actually going to
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: see an increase in spend based on some surveys we've
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: been reading, we actually see that consumers are going to
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: spend either a little bit more compared to prior year UM,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: but probably roughly around you know, about six to seven
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars on the average spend for gifts during this
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: holiday season. I think if people are still really in
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: the mood to celebrate, you know, the mass mandates are
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: relaxing quite a bit, especially in our more dense urban cities,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: So we will definitely see a bit more spend occurred
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: this year, and then we'll start to see hopefully and
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: softening UM and next year with the with the savings
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: and so forth. And you talked to us about real estate,
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: retail real estate. I'm here on Lexington Avenue between fifty
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: eight and fifty nine Street, UM. All of the retail
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: space with the exception of one very small Swiss chocolate
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  Speaker 1: store remain empty. Are what are we thinking about? What
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  Speaker 1: are the retailers saying about, you know, getting back into
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  Speaker 1: the physical stores now? They're definitely retailers are very excited.
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  Speaker 1: It's actually been a very busy year. I have to
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: stay within our organization at Colliers. We've just and the
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: transactions are speeding up. I think what we're seeing is
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: the falling right now. Fifty fine million square feet of
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: retail has been absorbed across the US year to date,
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: and there's another fifty million square feed about that is
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: under construction. So we are seeing momentum. There's movement from
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: other markets, global markets where retailers are coming into our
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: into the US. But what we're seeing is a very
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: strategic approach. So they're really taking the time to say, Okay,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: if we're going to expand, where should we expand first.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: So what I mean by about is, of course, a
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: lot of people left the city and so when they left,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: um retailers follow. And so the retailers are saying, let's
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: go into some of these suburban markets where we're seeing
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: you know, year over year sales increases from our competitors. Uh,
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: and there's some great locations. Let's try to get in
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: now and then we'll start to look at or relook
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: at some of our urban markets. But it's not going
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: to you know, there's still it's still you know, viable space. Please.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: You know, remb umber that rechire not going away, and
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: the physical footprint is definitely not going away. I wonder
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: if anybody wants to move back to Midtown. Our stores
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: are empty, right, Paul? Is it still pretty empty around
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: the Bloomberg office. Yeah, but the tourists are slowly coming back.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: I was again, I was out in the city having
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: dinner last night, and I noticed that the tourists are
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: starting to come back. So it's the worst of both
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: worlds exactly. They're always welcome, of course. Of course, Hey, Angie,
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Angie Solanki, their national
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: director of retail for the US. Over at call, you're
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: talking to us about what do you expect this holiday
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: season after we had some real bang up numbers on
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: the US economy. Let's bring in a j Odin right now.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: He's an investment strategist at b n y Melon Investor Solutions,
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: and um, we're looking at another rally today after yesterday
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: we had the biggest games. I believes in March. What's
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: driving us higher in the face of inflation concerns, supply
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: chain issues, labor shortages. Thanks for having it, That's a
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: great question, and I think a lot of it has
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: to do with we're chipping away slowly at that wall
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: of worry that we saw in September. September were sort
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: of everything sort of came together in this perfect storm,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: and we saw the death ceiling issues sort of added
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: to that persistent inflation question, and then the news that's
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: trying to about the potential for real estate um position
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: more contagion issue, but obviously became more contained. And so
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: all of that created a lot of volatility in October
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: and now obviously I mean in September, but obviously now
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: we chipped away a little bit. The death citing issue
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: pushed off until December, and although supply chain issues haven't
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: been resolved, the labor market numbers that we're getting being
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: a little bit stronger, moving from five down to four
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: point eight were we I think the market is digesting
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: the fact that although we're still going to have some
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: persistent inflation, supply chains are gonna take a little bit
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: time to normalize that the markets are still supportive of
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: rich assets and inflations. Clearly here that's why you're seeing
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: fixed incomes fell off, But where investors are going is
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: to where they can get some sense of inflation protection.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: That's I guess, while you're also seeing movement in the
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: crypto market as well. So clearly the quality names, the
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: ones that have pricing power, are going to have staying
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: power and the age and ability to ride out some
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: of this inflationary turbulence that we're gonna see for the
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: next few months. And I think that's why you're seeing
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: the doubt out performing the rest of the major industry.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: So a J do I Do I stick with that
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: rotational trade? You know, a lot of folks made back
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: boys September of last year really arguably into the more
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: cyclical names, maybe the banks, the energy names. Do I
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: stick with that? Order? I try to again take a
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: look at the quality top line growth stories, whether it's
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: tech or healthcare. How do I think about that? I
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna be a little bit of both. You
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: want some income, right, you want diving in um yield
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: as well, all as you want those quality names. UM
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: We're gonna see turbulence overall, But it seems like this
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: is reopened three point oh in a sense. Right, we
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: keep coming back to to you know, it's reopening the economy.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Then there seems like we pull back a bit. But
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: even seeing the news about international travel restriction being lifted
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: for vaccinated UM consumers, that's that's that's all positive news.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: And and it seems like this time hopefully that we're
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: gonna we're gonna be staying in that reopen trend. So
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: to your point, I think it's gonna be a little
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: bit of both. It's gonna be income quality with those
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: with pricing power, but also reefs as well. We like those, um,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: going going forward as we we we navigate this inflationary pressure. Um.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: What about property here? I wonder you like reads, Um,
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: do you buy real estate even even in this inflated market?
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Do you think you're so you're saying about the actual
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: individual housing? Um? Yeah, you know, I think I think
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: prices prices are a bit high, um. And so from
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: from individual perspective, I mean, if I think about myself,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: I would probably probably hold tight a bit um. And
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: but I mean from a reef financing perspective, it seems
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: like that's what a lot of consumers are doing, and
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: it doesn't make sense while rates are low, um, even
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: though they are creeping up, creeping up a bit um,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: you do you do get the value. I mean, you know,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: housing prices, Hopefully you'll hold the value. I mean it
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: in a sense that that real act, that the ability
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: to just sort of in a sensive access as an
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: equity in and keeping keeping too inflation trends, so I
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: I would caution it just because of prices and hopefully
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: you know when when things normalize a bit, maybe prices
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: come back when it comes to individual housing. But from
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: the res perspective, we do like the income um and
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: and instability to sort of deal with the tapering and
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: the potential for area likes that are coming into Paul
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Paul is not the best time to buy an individual,
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: but converse league a great time to sell a j
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: We've we had some good financials. Have earnings results in
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: the financials UH this week capped off here by Goldman
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Sax today. What are you looking for UH in this
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: earning period as we kind of get into the meat
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: of over the next couple of weeks. I mean, it's
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: super spinning is so important, right, I mean, we have
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: to think about with this pandemic, everything sort of came
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: to a stand cell and we've been looking for organic
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: growth to take over, and it's to be it's that
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: handoff for that bridge between fiscal and monetary policy to
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: come over into really just from the economy itself sort
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: of standing on its own. And so continuing to see
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: strong earning numbers is important for us because we need
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: to know that that baton handoffs can happen, and that
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: as we see capering and potential for rate hikes down
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: the future, that we won't see any sort of pullback
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: in the economy. So I think to continue to see
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: stronger earning numbers is going to be important overall. And
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: the earnings that we've seen so far, you're impressed, I
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: mean you're be with the for example, the financials we've seen.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: I think it's showed divertification from the banks. I mean,
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: when we think about the banks, can we think about uh,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: it's usually it's a lot of it has to do
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: with the yield curve, but their ability to do so
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: in a low interest rate environment and still produced is
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: a positive for the market. So I think that strong financials. Uh. Overall,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: it's definitely a positive seeing as that we're still at
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: you know, a zero percent fund. Ray All right, A
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: j thank you so much for joining us. We really
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: appreciate getting your thoughts here. A j Oden investment strategist
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: for b n Y Melan Investors Solution. So, Matt, not
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: a good time to be a buyer real estate. I
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: think that's terribly unfortunate in my case. Um, I'm if
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: it's your if it's your primary residence, I think there's
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: not much you can do. And yeah, but you're just
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: not going to be headed home pretty soon. I feel
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: like if I if I rent a place, I'm just
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: gonna be I feel like I'm just giving money away hurt. Yeah,
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: but you gotta think that the market's not gonna be
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: this crazy for this long. But who knows. Um so,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: but it's even a rental markets in the city, it's
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: gotten very tight, very quickly. But maybe on the burbs
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit better. Well, they buy the dippers
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: seemed to have won the day again today. Let's get
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: a sense of maybe where we go from here. As
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: we get into the meat of this third quarter earning season,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: we bring in a grizzled voice from the investment community.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Christine Hooper, chief Global market strategist for Investment, Well, I
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: say grizzle because listen to this. They have one point
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: five trillion dollars in assets under management. So when Christina speaks,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: people listen, and we are so approached to having Christina
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: on our show over time. Christina again. It feels like,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: just when people were starting to get a little worried,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit spooked about this market, the wall of
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: worry and all those things that are out there, the
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: past couple of days, I kind of erased that a
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: little bit. Well, certainly, but I wouldn't say we're out
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: of the woods yet. I would expect continued volatility. What
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: we learned from the f O m C minutes is
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: that the FED is full speed ahead and likely to
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: announce and begin tapering in November. I think that will
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: contribute to volatility, as will the continuation of earning season.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Not so much. I think for any negative surprises, I
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: certainly will get a few of those, but I think
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: it's more about the guidance for the future and issues
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: like supply chain disruptions. So what about um inflation? Is
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: the FED moving you think quick enough to keep this
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: under control. Well, um, hopefully it is. I think so,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: just because I'm of the camp that that most of
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: the inflation we're seeing is relatively transitory. Now keep in
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: mind that transitory doesn't mean that it goes away in
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: a month or two um. In fact, there's some some
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: dictionaries that would define transitory is not permanent. But I
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: do think we're likely to see elevated prices, higher inflation
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: war of the coming months, and that it may not
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: uh may not moderate until the middle of next year.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: So we have to to buckle our seatbelts and expect
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: that to be problematic, and that some of the headlines
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: could be scary, but this really shouldn't impact long term investors. So, Christina,
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: we had a lot of the big bank's report results
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: this week, have to buy some just some eye popping
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: numbers out of Goldman Sacks today. What did you take
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: from the financials and what we saw this week? Well,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: I certainly expected financials to be a highlight of earnings.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: Right that there are certainly far more tail winds than
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: headwinds for the financial space, So this isn't surprising. I
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: just don't want us to be lulled into a false
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: sense of security because some some sectors, some industries are
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: not going to fare as well in this environment as
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: financials have. So which ones are are you most concerned about? Well,
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: I think certainly the ower marchin industries um UM, transportation,
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: general retail, um, autos um, those that are certainly being
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: um impacted by supply chain disruptions. I think that's where
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: we're going to see some of the pain uh this
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: this earning season. And again though I don't think it
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: should deter investors. I think we just need to be
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: prepared for this. Yeah, I'm looking at my map go
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: function on the Bloomberg terminal and I like to look at,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: you know, the the number of ships cargo ships that
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: are outside Los Angeles or Savannah, New York and some
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: of the big U s ports. It ain't get any
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: better out there. And I'm kind of concerned over the
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: next couple of weeks when we hear from consumer products companies,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: technology companies, industrial companies that we're going to hear a
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: lot about supply chain issues. It just feels like it's
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: going to be a longer term issue that perhaps the
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: market is not fully discounting how do you think about that? Well,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: I think the market is certainly store in to discount it. Um.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: This is very understandable. We're coming out of this incredible
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: economic disruption in the pandemic. UM. So it makes sense
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: that we're experiencing all these issues and it makes sense
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: that it will take some time for them to be
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: worked out. Um. Having so, having said all that, I
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: would expect, especially not only companies UH in those areas,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: to talk about difficulties thus far, but to give guidance
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: for the fourth quarter. I'm quite frankly this situation has
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: gotten worse in the last couple of weeks, so it's
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: it's more going to be about UH next quarters earnings
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: and the impact there. So I think guidance is absolutely critical.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: UH to the extent that companies have visibility, I was
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: going to say, don't you think visibility is lacking right now? Um,
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: Certainly some have greater visibility than others. I think as
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: think companies have. Some companies at least have a better sense,
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: for example, of semiconductor supplies and how that situation is
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: of versus what we're seeing in in in other areas
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: in terms of supply chain disruptions. But yes, UM. In general,
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: visibility is going to be a challenge. Do you think
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: earnings have come down enough to reflect some of these
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: margin pressures that we might see in Christina or do
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: you think there's maybe some risk to this market from
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: from earnings. Well, I certainly think that that earnings UM
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: are are going to be negatively impacted. And I think
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: it doesn't mean that we're going to see anything terrible UM,
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: but certainly for those companies with the narrow margins, it's
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: going to have a significant impact. But again, it's a
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: relatively short term problem in the grand scheme of things.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: It seems like a long term problem right now because
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: it could last several quarters UM, but UM for those
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: with a long time horizon, these are kinds of issues
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: that could present buying opportunities if they're reflected in stock prices.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: I just want to quickly get your take on rates.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: We've seen the ten year climb back up to one
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: sixty basically right now. One where do you see rates going? So?
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: I think that that the movement is going to be higher,
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: but I don't think that it's going to be a
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: smooth move and they're certainly going to be headlines events,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: data releases that can send the yell lower temporarily, UM.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: But in my mind, we're going to be closer to
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: two than one percent when we finished this year, and
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to be higher than where we
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: are today. So and again, just following up on that,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Christine UM, just wondering about the FED, UM, do you
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: expect this tapering, in this eventual rate increase policy that
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: we're likely to see over the next six and twelve months.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Do you expect this to be I guess well received
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: by the market or rational received by the market. I
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: think it will. Let's keep in mind that the stock
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: market has become so incredibly dependent upon accommodative monetary policy,
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: and so this is a situation in which UM, the
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: market is going to welcome, UM a a very slow
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: normalization process. And so I think in particular, things like
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: when J. Powell says that there has been a very
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: conscious un coupling of tapering from rate hikes, I think
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: that's a very well received because right now markets have
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: come to accept the fact that we're going to see
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: tapering start soon. UM, They're more wary about rate hikes
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: and where that might take us. So I think that
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: this this approach is and will be well received by markets.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: All right, thanks so much for joining us, Christina. Always
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: great to get your insight. Christine and Hooper their chief
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: global market strategists over at Investco. As Paul said, they
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: have about one and a half trill billion dollars of
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: assets under management out of Atlanta. That does it for
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: this Friday. This is Bloomberg. Now let's get to Mark Noble.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: He's the executive VP of E T F Strategy at
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: Horizons E T S and we want to talk about
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: the supply chain issues the semiconductor industry, how that's reshaping
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: supply chains. Um, Mark, what do you think about where
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: we stand right now? Is there any light at the
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: end of the tunnel here? I? I don't think so. Um.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: I actually think that you know right now the semiconductor
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: issue with supply chains and the fact that semiconductors have
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: become probably the most highly politicized industry globally, means we're
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: probably looking at three for us to get some sort
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: of supply chain movement where these can get to market.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: UM very much viewing what's happening with a semiconductor's market
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: to be similar to what we saw in the seventi
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: three oil shock, where the pandemic has really shown the
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: fragility of the supply chain where we've been so heavily
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: reliant on Asian manufacturing. The vast majority of semi connector
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: components are manufactured in Asia, the majority of i P
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: is in North America but not manufactured there. And it's
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: resulted in a situation where you know, the United States
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: and China are very much at odds to get control
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: of the semiconductor, which has really come to the four
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: as the key technology used for all consumer electronics, from
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: everything from you know, smart TVs and artificial intelligence to
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: of course what we've seen with automobiles. So it is
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: almost at a crisis situation, and you know, no amount
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: of money being thrown at it is probably going to
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: allow us to have reassoring of this commodity. And I'm
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: very much unu as a commodity until there's you know,
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: more excess manufacturing capacity, which will take a couple of
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: years to built. Mark, I don't even know how we
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: out here. I don't even have cocktail our kind of
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: knowledge of this topic. How did we get here? Well,
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: the reason that we got here was that for the
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: last fourty years, globalization has occurred where supply chain has
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: all been focused on just in time delivery of technology.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: And so the United States benefit in technology has really
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: come from the I P which is developing the technology.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: You know, you have Silicone Valley providing sort of the
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: brain trust for development of technology. But to actually build components,
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: you have components built all around the world. So for example,
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: if I'm doing etching on semiconductors, that's likely happening through
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: a SML in in Netherlands, but I'm actually building the
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: key components that go into you know, glaphics processing units,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: which are the major driver of things like artificial intelligence
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: even automobiles. Now that's being done in Taiwan, and then
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: I have shipping coming through China, and I have you know,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: Japan and Korea also offering different pieces, and all these
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: these uh uh supply chain opponents would come together to
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: create this just in time manufacturing. When you have any
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: disruption of the supply chain, which we've seen with the
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: pandemic UH it results in a breakdown of any one
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: of these components, you end up with complete gridlock in
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: getting these semiconductors to market. But that's only one piece
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: of it. The more important piece is that data is
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: really you know, the idea of data. If we talk
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: about where the economy is going for the next two decades,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: really what we're moving forward is a digital economy, and
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: a digital economy requires semiconductors to move data. Very much
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: view data as the new oil. So semiconductors are the
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: new engine of that data. And if you want to
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: be you know, the lead economies in the next couple
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: of decades, you need to have exposure to semiconductors. And
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: what's happened is China, for example, realize that they have
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: a huge vulnerability relative to the rest of the world,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: and that they use semiconductors for all of their technology development,
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: but they don't actually manufacture them. So they've been holding semiconductors.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: They've been taking you know, I p and people from
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: Taiwan to come and work there. And the United States
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: has now double down, even introduced an act in called
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: the you know uh Chips in America Act where they're
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: also trying to double down to control the supply. So really,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: for your listeners, it's almost viewing it like the oil
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: shock in the nineteen seventies, again where the safety and
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: security of these massive global economies is focused on controlling
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: supply of semi conductor is the way that they were
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: focused on controlling supply of oil in the eighties. So, um,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: what's an investor to do in this situation? I mean,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: what's the best way to hedge against these problems? Well,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: it's interesting, you know, you would think this would create
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: volatility in the space, but actually creates an interesting opportunity
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: because one, there's only excess capacity being built and demand increasing.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: So where we expect the semiconductor market to probably be
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: about a trillion dollar market by it's roughly a five
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: billion dollar market now. And the one thing that's interesting
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: in this market that doesn't exist with other technology markets
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: is that there's going to be I believe, hundreds of
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: billion of dollars spent by governments globally to support an
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: underpinned development and manufacturing in semiconductors. So your baseline revenue
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: of these companies or subsidies is very well controlled, even
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: if you end up with volatility. So as a long
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: term buy and hold investment, uh, it's probably extremely attractive
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: simply because demand is not going away and you've got
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: massive public investment going into this, like you would with
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: an infrastructure investment. So even if you end up an
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: inflationary market, you have that being supported with money coming
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: in from the public. And then long term semi conductors
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: are only going to be more widely used in all
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: facets of our life, which means long term demand does
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: not decline. So this is definitely a long term investment
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: play that has a lot of opportunity even if it
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: becomes a political powder keg at certain periods during the
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: supply chain disruption. All right, Mark, thanks so much for
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: joining us. Really appreciate that. I certainly have a better
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: understanding here, but I'm disappointed that we can't just throw
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: money at the problem. It's usually my strategy their Mark Noble,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: executive VP of et F Strategy at Arise and ETFs.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: Why can't you just throw money and build a more
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: a new fab plant. But apparently that takes a while.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: I guess takes a while. It takes some time to
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: do that, and um, Unfortunately it looks like companies like
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: t SMC are willing to throw more money at it
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: than companies like Intel. Yeah. Interesting, but we got to
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: get some of that back on short. Sounds like as
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: we talked to some of the experts like Mark. Thanks
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Matt Miller three. Put on false Sweeney I'm on Twitter
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: at pt Sweeney before the podcast. You can always catch
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.