Latest / The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Treasury’s forecasts wrong on jobs & wealth effect
Both National and Labour are relying on Treasury forecasts of household and business investment growth happening at the same time as falling house prices. These are the forecasts Finance Minister Nicola Willis is using in the election campaign to say her Government’s policies will create 220,000 jobs over the next four years. The trouble is Treasury forecast in Willis’ first Budget in 2024 that it expected 258,000 over the next four years, but the economy has instead delivered no jobs growth. (See charts below, along with analysis below and in the videos above and below.)
That’s because…
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