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NFL Week 6 Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I am Schad Mollman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:18
Speaker 1: In a moment, I will be joined by my bff,
0:22
Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre, my co host on The Favorites,
0:27
Speaker 1: my co host on Convinced Me on Action Network, eh
0:31
Speaker 1: Q on Twitter on Sunday Mornings at a living in
0:35
Speaker 1: Eastern Mr Stunning Hunter, Professional better Extraordinaire, How are you,
0:43
Speaker 1: my friend? Hurting on a little bit chaff? Going to
0:46
Speaker 1: lie to you hurting a little bit gotta snacked around?
0:49
Speaker 1: This weekend, We're gonna get into all of it. We're
0:51
Speaker 1: gonna get into full slate. We're gonna get into our
0:55
Speaker 1: one and four in our fictional contest weekend. Some some
1:01
Speaker 1: really ugly happenings there. Kickers, man, what do we do
1:04
Speaker 1: to these kickers? Jesus? It's the kickers and the penalties.
1:08
Speaker 1: The NFL is is that that's a real problem. It's
1:12
Speaker 1: really becoming unbearable to watch because you can almost count
1:16
Speaker 1: every single time there is an important play. You can
1:19
Speaker 1: count on a holding or a past interference. It's it's
1:23
Speaker 1: it's actually become unbearable. Uh No, I saw it to
1:27
Speaker 1: up four to five penalty calls per game the season
1:30
Speaker 1: to last season. That's I mean, that's unacceptable. But let's
1:34
Speaker 1: forget about betters for a second, because like you call
1:37
Speaker 1: the NFL and be like, dude, there's too many penalties
1:39
Speaker 1: is killing my bats. They're not gonna have any sympathy
1:41
Speaker 1: for you, even if they are about to reap billions
1:44
Speaker 1: and billions and dollars in revenue because of legal lives betting. Um,
1:49
Speaker 1: it's a bad watching experience. It's a bad viewing experience.
1:52
Speaker 1: Like I'm watching these games and every other play that
1:57
Speaker 1: Bills Chiefs game, it's like you ken watch the game.
2:00
Speaker 1: It's watching the last two minutes of an NBA game.
2:03
Speaker 1: It's unbearable. Yeah, and as I can see why Bills
2:06
Speaker 1: fans are going crazy. You feel like every time on
2:08
Speaker 1: third down the Chiefs would miss a play, there's a flag,
2:12
Speaker 1: you know, holding in the second area. So it's it
2:16
Speaker 1: is getting to one of those points where I do
2:19
Speaker 1: think legal step. Then, just because everyone's gonn plaining, you've
2:22
Speaker 1: seen it every National meetia. I mean they had to
2:24
Speaker 1: kill an hour and a half on that Sunday night game.
2:26
Speaker 1: They were even talking about it. Um, so I do
2:30
Speaker 1: think there's gonna be an adjustment to it because it
2:31
Speaker 1: can't keep going towards this trend. I mean, it's that's
2:34
Speaker 1: a really high upgrade from the previous season. Up four
2:37
Speaker 1: to five calls per game. That's that's way too many.
2:41
Speaker 1: And it always feels like it's on a key third
2:43
Speaker 1: down or that's gonna turn a drive, or in the
2:48
Speaker 1: red zone, a pass interference in the end zone, a hold,
2:52
Speaker 1: a tug, a little grab around the waist. It's really um.
2:58
Speaker 1: It just makes it so difficult to enjoy the bet.
3:03
Speaker 1: It does. But Chad, we will celebrate one thing. Your
3:06
Speaker 1: Bears one, my Eagles one, and the Bills one. I
3:09
Speaker 1: think it's the first time and probably two to three years,
3:12
Speaker 1: all three of our teams one the same day. That's true,
3:14
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell's Buffalo Bills. Here's what we are going to celebrate.
3:17
Speaker 1: And I feel like your perspective on this says a
3:21
Speaker 1: lot about who you are as human being. This past week,
3:25
Speaker 1: you and I had the Minnesotive Vikings in our Survivor pool.
3:30
Speaker 1: Obviously that was a crazy game, and you and I
3:35
Speaker 1: happened to be texting about that game at the same time.
3:39
Speaker 1: We were sweating the Bengals packers and the five missed
3:43
Speaker 1: field goals in the final two minutes in overtime either
3:47
Speaker 1: way could have swung it for us one way or
3:49
Speaker 1: the other. We needed the Bengals, you know, to win outright,
3:53
Speaker 1: given that we had two and a half. Um, we
3:57
Speaker 1: have Minnesota. I happen to be in a contest where
4:00
Speaker 1: in the Survivor Pool contest where two times between before
4:05
Speaker 1: week ten, you have to choose two teams. Uh. And
4:08
Speaker 1: so this was one of the weeks that I did it,
4:11
Speaker 1: and I chose Minnesota and I chose Baltimore. And I
4:15
Speaker 1: wake up this morning and I'm thinking to myself someone
4:19
Speaker 1: I was I was slacking with somebody, Scott Miller from
4:22
Speaker 1: the Action Network. I was slacking with him. We were
4:24
Speaker 1: talking about this because he's in the same contest, and
4:27
Speaker 1: I said, and he said, You've you've used up all
4:30
Speaker 1: your good luck. I'm like, did I use up all
4:32
Speaker 1: my good luck? Or was this just sort of a
4:35
Speaker 1: reward for previous bad luck? What do you think? It
4:41
Speaker 1: depends on what side you're coming from. As someone had
4:43
Speaker 1: the colds, Mineline, I feel like I was very unlucky. UM,
4:47
Speaker 1: but I can't complain because I literally we talked about
4:50
Speaker 1: a lot of times down these survivor contests you need
4:53
Speaker 1: a lot of luck to win them. And this is
4:55
Speaker 1: insanity where the Patriots had to come back May one.
5:00
Speaker 1: I mean we had the week before the Bangals coming
5:03
Speaker 1: back against the Jaguars. There's just a bunch of different
5:05
Speaker 1: games that's got past couple of weeks that the public
5:09
Speaker 1: is I mean, that's what people want to point thus
5:12
Speaker 1: tip in a down week. The public killed it this week.
5:14
Speaker 1: It's no surprise me and you who like the bet
5:16
Speaker 1: with the book. Most weeks we got smacked around the public,
5:20
Speaker 1: every teaser, every little thing they needed came back and
5:23
Speaker 1: hit for him. So I say this often be careful
5:27
Speaker 1: this week. This is uh. This is setting up nicely
5:29
Speaker 1: for the sports books where people got some fat fat
5:32
Speaker 1: pockets out there after last week, and they're gonna try
5:35
Speaker 1: to get that money back this week. Can we talk
5:37
Speaker 1: about one more thing before we get to the games?
5:41
Speaker 1: M Sunday morning, I'm up. I'm stretching, you know, I
5:46
Speaker 1: like to stretch, get myself limber, getting ready for a day.
5:49
Speaker 1: I love Sunday's love the anticipation. Still get a rush
5:52
Speaker 1: about the bets and the shows and the traffic and
5:55
Speaker 1: the audience and how are we doing? And Simon you
5:58
Speaker 1: text me and you say, we gotta public around the
6:00
Speaker 1: Jets at plus three and a half. And I keep
6:03
Speaker 1: telling myself, don't react in the moment when Simon text
6:06
Speaker 1: you to say, we've got to do something because we
6:08
Speaker 1: need to have a measured response. But I get so excited.
6:11
Speaker 1: When you're excited. I'm like, yeah, let's do it. It
6:13
Speaker 1: usually works out for us. So and it works out.
6:15
Speaker 1: And you had the English flag and you're a brit
6:17
Speaker 1: and so we were excited, and that was not enjoyable.
6:22
Speaker 1: It wasn't. It wasn't. We had hope there for a
6:25
Speaker 1: second it was tied up or maybe maybe they're down
6:28
Speaker 1: three and we were back to cover in the three
6:29
Speaker 1: and a half they were down. It was no, they
6:32
Speaker 1: were down then seventeen and as the major part there,
6:39
Speaker 1: so they kicked the ball off and Matt Ryan gets
6:41
Speaker 1: it and I go this, We've seen this movie a
6:44
Speaker 1: million times three and out Matt Ryan, they're gonna kick
6:47
Speaker 1: it back to the Jets. The Jets were good on
6:49
Speaker 1: the field and score Matt Ryan will blow once again
6:51
Speaker 1: a twenty point lead uh didn't happen. Yet the one
6:55
Speaker 1: time it did not happen, we put in our contest.
6:58
Speaker 1: So no, no regrets. Um, I still believe in the bed.
7:03
Speaker 1: I thought it was a good number headed two and
7:04
Speaker 1: a half. I thought we were getting good value of
7:06
Speaker 1: three and a half. Thank God, though I know I
7:09
Speaker 1: wish we got it for the contest. I'll take the
7:11
Speaker 1: three though, because I had way too many teasers tied
7:13
Speaker 1: to the Jets, so I needed that field goal for
7:16
Speaker 1: my lung. So that was one of those I was sweating,
7:18
Speaker 1: all right. So if you were getting like because I
7:20
Speaker 1: was thinking like Zach Wilson gets sacked, stupid penalty, stupid mistake,
7:26
Speaker 1: not like that, that was our chance to cover. But
7:29
Speaker 1: if you still needed the field goal, I'm really glad
7:31
Speaker 1: for you. Alrights thought last night my kids said to me,
7:37
Speaker 1: My my nearly fifteen year old kid, he's two weeks
7:40
Speaker 1: away from being fifteen. We're watching the Monday night football
7:45
Speaker 1: game and he looks at me and he says, Wow,
7:50
Speaker 1: did anybody have John Gruden to get fired for hateful
7:55
Speaker 1: emails before Urban Meyer gets fired. I gotta say that's
7:59
Speaker 1: not a bed anybody was making. Oh God, what an awful. Look,
8:02
Speaker 1: it's time to get to the week six slate. Thursday
8:09
Speaker 1: Night football, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles. Oh boy,
8:15
Speaker 1: this is it's already going to test us, right. The
8:17
Speaker 1: Buccaneers on the road seven and a half point favorites
8:23
Speaker 1: of the bets. A defense that can't get right unless,
8:28
Speaker 1: uh they're playing Kobe Brissette and the Miami Dolphins against
8:33
Speaker 1: an Eagles team you know all too well that has
8:36
Speaker 1: been inconsistent, which jailor hurts? Are we getting? What are
8:40
Speaker 1: we doing here? Don't tell me. I already know we're
8:43
Speaker 1: taking the Eagles fly fly, of course, of course we are. Yeah.
8:53
Speaker 1: I had it at six points. I thought it was
8:54
Speaker 1: a fair line when they opened at six six and
8:56
Speaker 1: a half, that's that was a good number. But what
8:59
Speaker 1: happened as weep with the Eagles that they played Carolina Carolina.
9:03
Speaker 1: I believe we're up twelve or thirteen points in the
9:05
Speaker 1: fourth quarter. Sam Donald had three interceptions and a block punt.
9:09
Speaker 1: They only lost by three points. That's terrifying. That just
9:12
Speaker 1: shows how bad this Eagle's team is. They had three
9:14
Speaker 1: turnovers and a block punt. Uh man, I get why
9:19
Speaker 1: the public's coming in so having the Buccaneers, They're gonna
9:21
Speaker 1: meet everyone's teasers. Everyone's taking this money line in the Buccaneers.
9:25
Speaker 1: This feels like the exact same situation we had last
9:27
Speaker 1: year with the Bears were hosting the book hosting on
9:29
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers on a Thursday night game. Tom Brady, I
9:32
Speaker 1: don't know people remember this. He forgot what down it was.
9:34
Speaker 1: He thought he had one more down. He didn't. We
9:37
Speaker 1: have to take the Eagles in this position. Eagles are
9:39
Speaker 1: undefeated before, not undefeated, but I believe there's seven and
9:42
Speaker 1: oh on their last seven Thursday night games. A little
9:44
Speaker 1: fun fact for you. We love Thursdays in Philly. The
9:48
Speaker 1: fans will get up for it. So the Thursday night
9:50
Speaker 1: game again, people have been drinking since noon. It's it's
9:55
Speaker 1: a little bit of people are underrating the again. Buccaneers
10:01
Speaker 1: have one of the greatest rundee's we've probably ever seen.
10:03
Speaker 1: It's incredible what they've done this season as a round defense.
10:07
Speaker 1: But their cornerbacks that's such a real issue. And you
10:11
Speaker 1: know Brissette as a corpse. That guy can't move and
10:14
Speaker 1: he got injured in the first quarter and he was
10:15
Speaker 1: just done. They were out two of their top receivers
10:18
Speaker 1: in Miami. I should have known better than to really
10:20
Speaker 1: back that Miami team with all the injuries they had,
10:22
Speaker 1: But I thought Floors would have a defense was gonna
10:24
Speaker 1: step up, and again they give forty five points. I
10:27
Speaker 1: did not see that coming with that Miami defense. We've
10:30
Speaker 1: seen him with this Sea Was defense. They've played well
10:32
Speaker 1: this year. They've they really shut down a Carolina offense.
10:35
Speaker 1: They shut down the four nineers offense every game they've
10:38
Speaker 1: been in. I know you can see the Chiefs really
10:40
Speaker 1: blew them out. That that was just kind of I
10:43
Speaker 1: don't know how to say this, but you know, it's
10:45
Speaker 1: my homes. It's my homes. It's a little bit different
10:48
Speaker 1: where I can see this d line in after Brady,
10:52
Speaker 1: where I just didn't see it. They had advantage against
10:54
Speaker 1: Donald or Mahomes. I I ate a Bowl last week
10:57
Speaker 1: with Donald. He was terribly through thunor receptions. I don't
11:00
Speaker 1: know if thinking out that kind of luck against Brady again.
11:03
Speaker 1: But now that's up to seven and a half. Chat
11:04
Speaker 1: over a touchdown at home? Well what are you thinking here, buddy?
11:08
Speaker 1: I mean, how do we not bet this game? A
11:10
Speaker 1: couple of things. Number One, you said a Thursday everyone
11:13
Speaker 1: in Philly will be drinking since noon. That's a Monday,
11:17
Speaker 1: that's a Tuesday, that's a Wednesday, that's a Friday. It's
11:23
Speaker 1: not just it's not just a Thursday, Philly Number one.
11:28
Speaker 1: Of course, we're taking the Eagles here. Everything about it
11:32
Speaker 1: lines up the right way. I'm not taking too much
11:35
Speaker 1: from the Panthers game, and we're gonna get to the
11:36
Speaker 1: Panthers game because I don't know. Maybe Sam Donald isn't
11:40
Speaker 1: what we thought he was. Maybe we saw things that
11:44
Speaker 1: we just wanted to see in that Cowboys game and
11:47
Speaker 1: the way he played in the second half, and what
11:48
Speaker 1: he really was was the guy who struggled against a
11:52
Speaker 1: pretty good pressure defense, uh in the Cowboys, and then
11:55
Speaker 1: struggled a lot against a good pressure defense in the Eagles.
11:59
Speaker 1: So I don't know if like there's much to take
12:02
Speaker 1: away in terms of the quality of the Eagles play.
12:08
Speaker 1: He's just not a good quarterback. Um, he's just not consistent.
12:11
Speaker 1: That's the same problem with Sam Donald these Bees from
12:14
Speaker 1: twenty to thirty two. That's the reason they're in the
12:17
Speaker 1: bottom of the league. They're just inconsistent. I think we
12:20
Speaker 1: gotta take the Eagles. Here are the Eagles one of
12:22
Speaker 1: our five best are we are we so in on
12:25
Speaker 1: the Eagles that we want to make a stand that
12:29
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's even and a half. It's
12:34
Speaker 1: exactly like that was the same reason why we like
12:36
Speaker 1: the Colts like we don't. We didn't like anything about
12:39
Speaker 1: the Colts playing that Ravens team, But when it's at seven,
12:42
Speaker 1: seven and a half and we were just like, this
12:44
Speaker 1: is that's a big, big number. So again, that's how
12:47
Speaker 1: we feel about the Eagles. The Buccaneers defense again one
12:51
Speaker 1: of the best deliones we've ever seen. They have too
12:53
Speaker 1: many issues in the secondary to be favored by seven
12:55
Speaker 1: and a half on the road. Can we be gross
12:58
Speaker 1: as we get to the Sunday games? Can we start
13:01
Speaker 1: our conversation at nine thirty in the morning. Miami Dolphins
13:07
Speaker 1: at Jacksonville Jaguars. The Dolphins are three and a half
13:13
Speaker 1: point favorites. I hate how I've become so boring to
13:17
Speaker 1: our fans, And they knew the minute this line came up,
13:20
Speaker 1: All them Sars your favorite back and be the Jaguars
13:23
Speaker 1: plus three and a half Pro Joe game right now,
13:25
Speaker 1: that's on the Dolphins, money on the Jaguars, right I
13:29
Speaker 1: love the Jacks. Of course I'll take the three and half.
13:31
Speaker 1: We have two awful teams. Neither should like that. That's
13:34
Speaker 1: the only thing that scared me off is they're sucking
13:36
Speaker 1: me in with the hook again, just like the day
13:38
Speaker 1: with the Jets, where they feel like in a bad
13:40
Speaker 1: matchic you're getting the better number of the bad team.
13:43
Speaker 1: But man, that Dolphins team, they've just straight up quit
13:47
Speaker 1: in that Buccaneers game, Lisa Jaguars. They had more yards
13:50
Speaker 1: in the Tennessee Titans. They just couldn't execute finished drives.
13:53
Speaker 1: They missed field goals, they got stopped a couple of
13:55
Speaker 1: times in the in the red zone and got fourth
13:57
Speaker 1: down turnovers. Did Jack Is at least are putting up
14:01
Speaker 1: a fight where people think they would have quit on them.
14:03
Speaker 1: I just didn't believe that was why I took that
14:05
Speaker 1: number last week, was like, I still think this team
14:07
Speaker 1: will play for Urban man a lot of question marks there,
14:10
Speaker 1: So I wouldn't make this one of our best five
14:12
Speaker 1: because I think I need to start taking what you
14:14
Speaker 1: said last week, where it's like, can you can you
14:16
Speaker 1: step away from the numbers for a second just look
14:18
Speaker 1: at the situation. And that's what I did with the
14:21
Speaker 1: Oakland Raiders. I mean not to Las Vegas Raiders and
14:23
Speaker 1: the Bears. Last week we talked about we love the
14:26
Speaker 1: Bears money line plus two hundred just because all this
14:28
Speaker 1: stuff going on with the Las Vegas Raiders. Maybe it's
14:31
Speaker 1: the same people we need to take with the Jaguars team.
14:33
Speaker 1: And maybe until Urban's gone or at USC, we should
14:36
Speaker 1: start fading this team. But I can't chat. I love
14:39
Speaker 1: the numbers. This is what I do three and a half.
14:41
Speaker 1: I'll take the Jaguars, but this will not be one
14:43
Speaker 1: of our five jet jets. I don't think Jack can
14:46
Speaker 1: do the Jets or the Jags. Again, I I cannot
14:50
Speaker 1: at all. And I thought about this. It's a beautiful
14:54
Speaker 1: day here in central Connecticut. It's it's blue skies, the
15:00
Speaker 1: leaves are changing, It's a kaleidoscope of colors. Took the
15:04
Speaker 1: dog for a walk early this morning after I stretched
15:07
Speaker 1: and I was listening to our Tuesday podcast. I like
15:12
Speaker 1: to review, you know, see if there's anything in there that,
15:15
Speaker 1: uh that that I want to pick up on. And
15:20
Speaker 1: the conversation we had about the Jaguars and then being
15:25
Speaker 1: one of our best bets and me being sickened by it.
15:30
Speaker 1: You said this team could be down fourteen nothing in
15:33
Speaker 1: the first minute of the game against the Titans, and
15:35
Speaker 1: we're way off. They were down. They literally were down
15:38
Speaker 1: seven nothing in the first minute of the game. Like
15:41
Speaker 1: they're just a bad team. Bad things happened to bad teams,
15:44
Speaker 1: and look, we make our bed. We lie in it
15:47
Speaker 1: when we decided to bet on the Jets and the
15:50
Speaker 1: Bengals and the Jaguars and the Dolphins and the Texans
15:54
Speaker 1: and the Giants. Right, the Giants first string quarterback goes
15:58
Speaker 1: out in the first half, first dring running back goes
15:59
Speaker 1: out in first half. First string wide receiver Kenny Gallant
16:02
Speaker 1: that goes out in the first half, first string left tackle.
16:05
Speaker 1: One reason why we were comfortable because of their pressure
16:07
Speaker 1: rate was so the pressure rate against the Giants offense
16:10
Speaker 1: was so low because of Andrew Thomas. They lose everything, right,
16:15
Speaker 1: so we're playing with one hand tied behind our back
16:17
Speaker 1: when we've been on bad teams. I've just lost faith
16:20
Speaker 1: in this Jaguars team as being the team that is
16:25
Speaker 1: the rule. I think they are the exception to the rule.
16:27
Speaker 1: I think they're terrible. I don't think anyone wants to
16:29
Speaker 1: player for Urban Meyer. I think they're probably the right
16:32
Speaker 1: side because of the Dolphins and they're just as bad.
16:34
Speaker 1: But I don't want a piece of this game. And
16:36
Speaker 1: where people should know this is we're at the one
16:38
Speaker 1: third mark of this season. So I will let Chad
16:42
Speaker 1: do this right now and maybe for the next three
16:43
Speaker 1: or four weeks, but the second half of the season
16:47
Speaker 1: all in on the Jacks, Like these are the kind
16:48
Speaker 1: of teams where people are gonna feel just like Chad is,
16:51
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get a free three to four points every
16:53
Speaker 1: week towards the end of the season on these bad teams.
16:55
Speaker 1: So I'll let you do it right now because we're
16:57
Speaker 1: at the midway point and like, I finally have the
16:59
Speaker 1: number and data to be like, yeah, you're right. The
17:01
Speaker 1: books are pretty smart with a lot of these numbers.
17:03
Speaker 1: So I like the Jags, What am I getting crazy value? No,
17:06
Speaker 1: not enough that I would be like, we have to
17:08
Speaker 1: make this one of our five. But in three or
17:10
Speaker 1: four weeks we are going to have to be bet
17:11
Speaker 1: in the Jaguars because no one else is going to
17:14
Speaker 1: be So that's that's when you have to be bet
17:16
Speaker 1: in these teams. Yeah, let's get a couple of things
17:18
Speaker 1: straight here, Mr big shot, you don't tell me what
17:23
Speaker 1: you're letting me do? I let you switch all the
17:27
Speaker 1: Chargers and putting Carolina this week. Don't forget that, by
17:33
Speaker 1: the way, is revisionist history. We we very specifically had
17:39
Speaker 1: a conversation that we love the Panthers all week. We
17:42
Speaker 1: thought it was great at minus three, it was a
17:44
Speaker 1: good number. We didn't love the Chargers number as much.
17:46
Speaker 1: We were back and forth on it because of calls
17:50
Speaker 1: we were getting during the week about the Browns, like
17:54
Speaker 1: let's not, let's not, let's not play like you know know,
17:57
Speaker 1: me and me and Rory and the real reason because
18:00
Speaker 1: our heard your best friend like the Browns. That's why
18:02
Speaker 1: you're like, I don't know. I walked Hey, hey, I
18:07
Speaker 1: walked him off the Browns. Okay, I hope you did.
18:09
Speaker 1: Yeah I did. I walked him off the Browns. The
18:12
Speaker 1: next game up, and I'm not going to be against
18:15
Speaker 1: the Jaguars as we get later in the year three
18:18
Speaker 1: and a half against the Dolphins, I'm just not seeing
18:21
Speaker 1: any value, like two really bad teams. This game to
18:25
Speaker 1: me should be picked, Like there's value there. You just
18:28
Speaker 1: said that the games should be picked. There's good value.
18:30
Speaker 1: You just don't want to deal with the heart ak
18:31
Speaker 1: and headache. Yeah, you're right, Los Angeles Rams at New
18:36
Speaker 1: York Giants. Rams are a ten on a half point favorite.
18:40
Speaker 1: Right now. It's a weird game. There's just too much uncertainty.
18:43
Speaker 1: I don't know if we can really talk about it yet.
18:44
Speaker 1: We might have to reevaluate this on Thursday. Yeah, and
18:47
Speaker 1: we always like to fade Danny Jones at home. So
18:50
Speaker 1: if you use the quarterback, you probably would be on
18:51
Speaker 1: the Rams. But this is such a big number. No
18:55
Speaker 1: matter what you're gonna eat, things really go your way
18:57
Speaker 1: with this Rams team at that number, like you need
19:00
Speaker 1: a couple of things about your way then not to
19:01
Speaker 1: turn the ball over. I don't know if I have
19:03
Speaker 1: the faith in Matthew Stafford that way. He made me
19:05
Speaker 1: very uneasy in that Arizona Cardinals game. He made me
19:09
Speaker 1: very uneasy in that Seattle game. Even though you got
19:11
Speaker 1: the job done, there's just still like there's just something
19:14
Speaker 1: about Stafford that I'm just unsure about. So at that
19:17
Speaker 1: big of a number, I can't do it, can't take them,
19:20
Speaker 1: So I leaned towards the Giants. But yeah, until we
19:22
Speaker 1: know where the quarterback is, we can't touch this game. Yeah,
19:25
Speaker 1: we gotta pat well, we'll come back to it. I
19:27
Speaker 1: promise we'll come back to it. Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts,
19:32
Speaker 1: good old a fc SO South matchup that everybody's going
19:37
Speaker 1: to care about. The Texans are ten point underdogs the
19:41
Speaker 1: Colts short week coming off of a brutal, brutal beat
19:49
Speaker 1: um last night. I went to bed. The Colts were
19:53
Speaker 1: up but five? What was it? They were up? You
19:59
Speaker 1: know that? It was like, and they were driving in
20:04
Speaker 1: the field and Justin Houston had just gotten that penalty
20:07
Speaker 1: on Carson Wentz after sacking him. He got the personal files.
20:10
Speaker 1: So now they're in field goal range. I'm like, all right,
20:12
Speaker 1: I'm done, go upstairs. I go to bed. Before I
20:14
Speaker 1: get Before I get in bed, the last thing I
20:16
Speaker 1: see in like seven minutes, uh, is a alert from
20:21
Speaker 1: the Action Network saying that the the Ravens had just
20:25
Speaker 1: tied the game. I'm like, what the hell happened? But
20:27
Speaker 1: I had already taken a melotone and I wasn't gonna
20:29
Speaker 1: stay for the game, so I went to bed. I
20:30
Speaker 1: woke up and they had one. Colts are not a
20:33
Speaker 1: good team. They're not. I would love to hear what
20:37
Speaker 1: are the betting splits in the action app on this game,
20:39
Speaker 1: like what's the public doing? What does It's it's too early,
20:42
Speaker 1: like there's there's so little volume on this game right now,
20:45
Speaker 1: less than there's like three thousand bets on this game,
20:49
Speaker 1: and it's it's relatively even. It's fifty two percent of
20:52
Speaker 1: the best done the Texans and forty percent of the
20:55
Speaker 1: bets on the Colts. Immediately when I saw this, I
20:58
Speaker 1: loved the Texas ran the numbers. It's a fair number,
21:03
Speaker 1: having an eight and a half nine. I've I've kind
21:05
Speaker 1: of keep moving it down now because the Colts have
21:07
Speaker 1: so many injuries to that defense you just talked about.
21:10
Speaker 1: They have a couple injuries also on their offensive line.
21:13
Speaker 1: And this Textans team, I want to hate him because
21:15
Speaker 1: of what they did to me last week. I'm blowing
21:17
Speaker 1: that game and like the kicker, I'm missing all the
21:19
Speaker 1: field goals, an extra points, and letting the Patriots come
21:21
Speaker 1: all way back to win that game. But it's the
21:24
Speaker 1: same reason I'm into this Texas team. They just they
21:26
Speaker 1: aren't as bad as they looked. Davis Mills, he isn't
21:30
Speaker 1: that terrible again, He's this is what these rookie quarterbacks are.
21:35
Speaker 1: They're like they're literally they're up and down each week.
21:38
Speaker 1: The weeks, you never really know what you're gonna get
21:40
Speaker 1: when you get numbers, it's high. It leaves a little
21:42
Speaker 1: bit of room for error. And you just talked about
21:45
Speaker 1: that Colds team. I don't even want to say it
21:50
Speaker 1: right now, but this is this is one. This is
21:51
Speaker 1: one of my favorite Survivor picks because when else are
21:53
Speaker 1: you gonna take them? Um at home against the Texans,
21:56
Speaker 1: they were at home against the Jaguars. It's just a
21:58
Speaker 1: great spot for this cold team team. But it's terrifying,
22:02
Speaker 1: Like Carson Wentz played a perfect game last night and
22:05
Speaker 1: the team is still lost. Um. They just have a
22:07
Speaker 1: lot of weird things like going with this cold team,
22:10
Speaker 1: like the same way I felt about taking that Vikings
22:12
Speaker 1: team the Vicacy, and they have a lot of great pieces,
22:14
Speaker 1: they're just bad. They're just a bad team and they
22:17
Speaker 1: don't know how to finish games. So well, we'll talk
22:20
Speaker 1: about on Thursday. Right now, I would say I like
22:22
Speaker 1: the Texas at this number, and I like the cultural Survivor.
22:26
Speaker 1: I bet by Thursday, and you're gonna very different views
22:29
Speaker 1: in this game, just because you know this line might
22:31
Speaker 1: move all the way down to the seven from nine
22:33
Speaker 1: and a half and there's not gonna be that much
22:34
Speaker 1: great value in the Houston anymore. But at this number
22:37
Speaker 1: nine and a half, ten, Yeah, I'd be happy to
22:40
Speaker 1: take Houston at that. What do you have this power
22:42
Speaker 1: rated at? I had an eight and a half and
22:44
Speaker 1: I bumped it down to eight and I might update
22:45
Speaker 1: it even more just because there's so many injuries right
22:49
Speaker 1: now for this cold team, it's hard not to keep
22:52
Speaker 1: bumping them down where it's like, again, Jonathan Taylor, incredible player,
22:55
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz playing really well. Can they really make up
22:58
Speaker 1: for all these injuries on that off on side? And
23:00
Speaker 1: they can? They helped make up for all the injuries
23:02
Speaker 1: to their defense. They might having a kicker, like I
23:04
Speaker 1: don't know what's going on their kicker either. You suppose
23:05
Speaker 1: it's a hip injury. Wait, way too much called this
23:08
Speaker 1: cold team to be taking them at minus to nine
23:10
Speaker 1: and a half. There was a moment watching that when
23:13
Speaker 1: a football game where Rodrigo Blankenship was on the sideline
23:16
Speaker 1: and he was sort of he was sitting with his
23:18
Speaker 1: legs spread open and he was bending over and he
23:21
Speaker 1: looked like he was five years old. He looked like
23:23
Speaker 1: but also like I was concerned, just like I felt
23:28
Speaker 1: sad for him. As mental health. Yeah, I thought I
23:30
Speaker 1: thought it was something regarding mental health, and the announcers
23:33
Speaker 1: weren't really saying anything. Then finally if someone says something
23:35
Speaker 1: about an injury. But I just thought I almost wanted
23:38
Speaker 1: the cameras to turn away. I thought we were in
23:40
Speaker 1: the middle of watching someone have a breakdown, and like,
23:45
Speaker 1: how this is painful and and scary and almost inappropriate
23:51
Speaker 1: to watch. That's what I should have bought out. I
23:53
Speaker 1: was like, this is gonna come down to a kicker.
23:54
Speaker 1: I should have known better than to let it ride,
23:56
Speaker 1: because as soon as I showed that, you were just like,
23:58
Speaker 1: oh god, what an awful And now a word from
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Speaker 1: step to five three three four two in Arizona. Let's
26:00
Speaker 1: get back to the show's Three Chiefs not playing Great
26:05
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team six and a
26:09
Speaker 1: half point world favorites. I know we here, easy bet,
26:14
Speaker 1: I don't even think about it. This is probably a
26:17
Speaker 1: guarantee we can give on a Tuesday. This will be
26:20
Speaker 1: one of our fives. Last year, me and Chad we
26:23
Speaker 1: faded the Chiefs all the way down the home stretch.
26:25
Speaker 1: We started this year fading them. Kind of got off
26:28
Speaker 1: the train a little bit there. I don't know what
26:30
Speaker 1: happened to me last week. I needed to be smacked around.
26:32
Speaker 1: Taking the Chiefs at minus three. I'm not messing up again.
26:36
Speaker 1: This defense. Way too many injuries. I I get it.
26:41
Speaker 1: Mahomes is incredible, Like they're gonna put up points. Can
26:45
Speaker 1: they get the stops? Can they Can they get the
26:47
Speaker 1: team to kick the field goals? That's what you're banking on.
26:49
Speaker 1: If you're taking the Chiefs, your bank on them getting
26:51
Speaker 1: the team to the field goals. This is a scary number.
26:54
Speaker 1: This is one of these The Vegas is giving it
26:56
Speaker 1: out and they're saying, go ahead, tease the chief each
27:00
Speaker 1: down to half a point, like you think the Chiefs
27:02
Speaker 1: are winning this game, go ahead and tease this number down.
27:04
Speaker 1: A little scary, Chad, I'm I'm kind of scared of
27:07
Speaker 1: this number. So I love the six and a half
27:10
Speaker 1: and hoping against the seven. That'd make it feel better,
27:12
Speaker 1: because that's what I had this game at. I have
27:14
Speaker 1: it at the seven, but introduced interesting with the bookmakers
27:17
Speaker 1: are doing and you're hanging a six and a half.
27:19
Speaker 1: Vanduel has the watching football team at plus seven right
27:23
Speaker 1: now plus seven actually minus one oh eight. It looks
27:27
Speaker 1: like so reduced juice. Good number on the Washington football team.
27:33
Speaker 1: Is this a simon sets? I would say it is
27:35
Speaker 1: because I just believe other pros like me, you're gonna
27:37
Speaker 1: come in on this number. We're not gonna let it
27:38
Speaker 1: get the seven a half just because the seven is
27:40
Speaker 1: good enough. So I have no problems before. I just
27:44
Speaker 1: want to get this number while last because I think
27:46
Speaker 1: it will go down to six and a half. Grab
27:47
Speaker 1: the seven right now plus seven vandel here we go,
28:02
Speaker 1: Simon says, Grab the Washington football team. Next up in
28:08
Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers. Boy, if this isn't a
28:14
Speaker 1: disappointing team visiting a team that we have completely lost
28:19
Speaker 1: our read on, I don't know who it is. The
28:22
Speaker 1: Panthers are one point underdogs at home against the Vikings.
28:30
Speaker 1: Who thou arn't you? Sam Donald? We bet the Vikings
28:36
Speaker 1: at home, we fade them on the road. The Vikings
28:38
Speaker 1: are now on the road, man, or this is this
28:41
Speaker 1: Viking seem bad? Or watch? I cannot get over that
28:44
Speaker 1: De Troy game. I just man, they are they got
28:48
Speaker 1: major issues. And Carolina at home on the grass against
28:53
Speaker 1: a fast team like the Vikings. This is just a
28:57
Speaker 1: very nice bounce back spot for this Carolina team. And
29:01
Speaker 1: we've seen it now. The teams that started three oh
29:03
Speaker 1: them in Denver, they've both kind of fallen off here.
29:06
Speaker 1: They've dropped too straight, both of them. Um I don't
29:11
Speaker 1: know what to think, but as as a as a
29:13
Speaker 1: better here, as long as it's not minus three for Carolina,
29:16
Speaker 1: which I had a minus two and a half for Carolina,
29:19
Speaker 1: I think I'm getting a good number with Carolina, So
29:22
Speaker 1: I get the worry, Sam Donald, that was just brutal,
29:26
Speaker 1: as it better like that was one of the few
29:27
Speaker 1: games I had on the main TVs. And uh, I
29:33
Speaker 1: he he didn't look right in the first half. He
29:34
Speaker 1: was kind of getting away with it, but then when
29:36
Speaker 1: the second half came. I think they scored three points
29:38
Speaker 1: total in the entire second half at home. It's red flax.
29:42
Speaker 1: It's major red flax. So I do really like this game,
29:44
Speaker 1: but I don't know if i'd make it one of
29:46
Speaker 1: our best five. Joh, I wouldn't either. I agree with you.
29:49
Speaker 1: I I sometimes even if the number is right, this
29:53
Speaker 1: is where I like to match the human element with
29:57
Speaker 1: the number element. It can't just be all one thing right.
30:01
Speaker 1: We need uh, we need some fusion, and you can
30:08
Speaker 1: bet the number, and you can bet the team when
30:12
Speaker 1: they're sort of matching, when the then diagram comes together.
30:16
Speaker 1: To me, this isn't coming together. The number feels right
30:19
Speaker 1: like Carolina is at one point under dog at home.
30:22
Speaker 1: But Sam Donald that Cowboys game and that that that
30:28
Speaker 1: game against the Eagles, he looked like what he always
30:31
Speaker 1: was and not like what he had been these first
30:33
Speaker 1: three games when everybody is always hyping them up again,
30:35
Speaker 1: is already hyping up again. I need to see more
30:38
Speaker 1: like sometimes I'm just gonna walk away. Yeah, and just again,
30:41
Speaker 1: you're just you're feeling the same thing off, feeling the
30:43
Speaker 1: guys turning the ball over to too much right now
30:45
Speaker 1: to really put a lot of money on them. So
30:46
Speaker 1: I got it completely. I can't live this way. I
30:49
Speaker 1: can't live in fear of Sam Donald turning the ball over.
30:54
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens Ravens minus three. This
31:00
Speaker 1: line has dropped opened at minus five and a half
31:03
Speaker 1: now and minus three tricky. One same reason I was
31:07
Speaker 1: into the Browns before the whole Baker thing. We we
31:10
Speaker 1: like teams that can run against his Chargers team. They
31:12
Speaker 1: can be run on. That is the biggest issue with
31:14
Speaker 1: this Chargers team. But it's terrifying, like you have to
31:18
Speaker 1: throw out all my analytics on all my math because
31:21
Speaker 1: Brandon Staley is going for it on fourth and three
31:24
Speaker 1: or from his own twenty two, Like it's it's really
31:28
Speaker 1: hard to handicap against the guy like this, where his
31:31
Speaker 1: team could be down by fourteen, it's irrelevant because all
31:34
Speaker 1: it takes is a touchdown, a three out of their team,
31:36
Speaker 1: another touchdown, it's tied up, and he can do that
31:38
Speaker 1: with Herbert, I mean, the guy. It's It's what I
31:41
Speaker 1: love about some of these DC's becoming head coaches. It's
31:44
Speaker 1: not like the old school way where the defensive cordineer
31:46
Speaker 1: comes a head coach and they played like a coward.
31:49
Speaker 1: He looks at the other way where he played against McVeigh,
31:52
Speaker 1: you know, all those years, and he just kind of
31:54
Speaker 1: saw where what do you not want the offense to do?
31:56
Speaker 1: You don't want them to go for a fourth down
31:58
Speaker 1: because it is a backbreaker of that defense. It changes
32:01
Speaker 1: all it changes the games momentum as well. And that's
32:04
Speaker 1: what happened with that Browns game. Um, I think the
32:06
Speaker 1: Browns are up fourteen points and it never really feel
32:09
Speaker 1: like you're out of it. As a Chargers better Uh,
32:11
Speaker 1: they just this turbot thing. It's kind of scary where Uh.
32:15
Speaker 1: It's same thing with the Cowboys this year. The Cowboys
32:17
Speaker 1: are just winning and covering at an alarm and rate,
32:19
Speaker 1: and the Charges are doing things where that's how you
32:22
Speaker 1: know they're one of these elite teams there. It's just
32:24
Speaker 1: they're winning. They're winning that they're winning games they should
32:27
Speaker 1: and they're dominating, and they're winning in different ways. They're
32:30
Speaker 1: winning some of the games by defense or winning some
32:31
Speaker 1: games by offense. But it all comes down to Herbert
32:34
Speaker 1: as a pro, I like the number of course I
32:37
Speaker 1: would be on the Ravens like this is this is
32:39
Speaker 1: a smart side to be on the Ravens. Here. It's Baltimore, gentlemen,
32:43
Speaker 1: the gods will not save you. Everyone's gonna come in
32:47
Speaker 1: on the Chargers. They're the darlings. We all feel like,
32:50
Speaker 1: you know, the Ravens have gotten lucky these last couple
32:52
Speaker 1: of weeks that went against Detroit, they got pretty lucky.
32:55
Speaker 1: Last night, they got pretty lucky. Lamar is playing out
32:58
Speaker 1: in this world. It's it's really hard to fade him
33:00
Speaker 1: in a matchup where you're playing against a team that
33:03
Speaker 1: can can be ran on. The Chargers can be can
33:05
Speaker 1: be ran on, and it's a bad, bad matchup for
33:11
Speaker 1: what the Chargers defense likes to do. But there just
33:14
Speaker 1: isn't that much value on either side, Like if if
33:16
Speaker 1: it was four, if it was still five and a half,
33:18
Speaker 1: like you said, the Chargers were, we love that number, right,
33:21
Speaker 1: that'd be That's a huge number. Sitting here at three.
33:24
Speaker 1: It's kind of feels like the same way with the
33:25
Speaker 1: Chiefs and the Bills last week, where it's like, yeah,
33:28
Speaker 1: like the home team, but I don't really think I'm
33:30
Speaker 1: getting that much value. It's it's gonna be it's gonna
33:34
Speaker 1: be a heavy bet game where everyone's gonna be coming
33:36
Speaker 1: on this Chargers team. That's just you're happy to get
33:39
Speaker 1: Herbert as a dog in this position, and so I
33:41
Speaker 1: can't really make you pick a side of your chat.
33:43
Speaker 1: But I I leaned towards the Ravens. It might get
33:47
Speaker 1: to Ravens two and a half and that's when I
33:50
Speaker 1: hit him, and like, I'm already dreading it because I
33:53
Speaker 1: hate betting against the Chargers team. That's why I was
33:55
Speaker 1: so happy I took them last week. Everything they're doing
33:58
Speaker 1: is why I like them early in the year. We
34:00
Speaker 1: better than to win the Super Bowl. They're just an
34:01
Speaker 1: exciting team with the second year the second year quarterback
34:04
Speaker 1: taking that lead and a head coach that does not
34:07
Speaker 1: care like this guy is going for it again fourth
34:09
Speaker 1: and three from his own twenty like we never see that.
34:12
Speaker 1: I think it was midway through the second quarter or
34:13
Speaker 1: a third quarter. Crazy, so I'm terrified to bet against
34:17
Speaker 1: the Chargers team. As we're talking, the line moved. We
34:22
Speaker 1: had a line change. It went from minus three minus
34:25
Speaker 1: one ten to minus three minus one fifteen, So not
34:30
Speaker 1: too much changing. I saw on the Action Network screening
34:35
Speaker 1: that I'm looking at it right now that anybody has
34:38
Speaker 1: access to the public betting and the odds. It lit
34:42
Speaker 1: up red and then it's changed. I love it. Cincinnati
34:46
Speaker 1: Bengals at Detroit Lions. The Cincinnati Bengals will be three
34:51
Speaker 1: point favorites against the Detroit Lions in Detroit. I'm going
34:54
Speaker 1: to say it right now. This is a bet Detroit
34:57
Speaker 1: on the money line game. Hello, Detroit already did it,
35:07
Speaker 1: and I bet the three and a a half ro would
35:09
Speaker 1: have opened just a little scared of the pros are
35:11
Speaker 1: coming on just because of Joe Burrow. We don't really
35:13
Speaker 1: know what's going on with him. Apparently he's back in
35:15
Speaker 1: the building again. I don't really know the whole story
35:17
Speaker 1: with that throat contusion. I've never heard of that before. Uh,
35:21
Speaker 1: something like his issues talking or breathing or something like that. Wow,
35:25
Speaker 1: this Lion's team. I can't get over how bad their
35:27
Speaker 1: luck is and no doubts. Feels like we're gonna come
35:30
Speaker 1: in on them here and they're just gonna get dominated.
35:32
Speaker 1: But I love this team. Like the head coach him
35:35
Speaker 1: crying after the game, was talking about how much his team,
35:37
Speaker 1: his team cares, and how hard they played for him,
35:40
Speaker 1: everything about it. We love this Bengals team coming off
35:43
Speaker 1: that that. I mean again, they should have had the
35:45
Speaker 1: kicker missing all those kicks now go on the road.
35:48
Speaker 1: I find it feels the same reason we're fading them. Um,
35:51
Speaker 1: you know when they travel to play in Chicago, it
35:54
Speaker 1: was the hips get a little too high. Now in
35:56
Speaker 1: the Bengals, they're they're really feeling themselves. We want to
35:59
Speaker 1: come back on the other side. So I'd feel better
36:01
Speaker 1: if it was at three and a half, just like
36:03
Speaker 1: I fell last week with the Bengals, who are three
36:04
Speaker 1: and a half against Green Bay. But a three is
36:07
Speaker 1: a good number. We'll take the plus three at home
36:09
Speaker 1: with this Lions team. Yeah, I completely agree. I feel
36:12
Speaker 1: like even with the loss, the way the Bengals played,
36:15
Speaker 1: the football fans who bad are paying attention to that game.
36:20
Speaker 1: They saw them show up, saw them go toe to
36:22
Speaker 1: toe with the Packers, saw them have a chance to win,
36:25
Speaker 1: and they're automatically gonna think, oh God, this team is
36:28
Speaker 1: so much better than the lines. And if you're not
36:30
Speaker 1: paying attention, then you're not really seeing that. The Lions are.
36:34
Speaker 1: They're hanging in every game. There's scrappy, they fight, Jared
36:39
Speaker 1: Goff really doesn't know like how bad it is. And
36:43
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell, like, I think he's drinking every single bit
36:47
Speaker 1: of the kool aid that Dan Campbell was brewing up.
36:50
Speaker 1: Now they're they're They're They're probably the ugliest fun fun
36:53
Speaker 1: team this season so far. Speaking of ugly Green Bay
37:02
Speaker 1: Packers at Chicago Bears, the line is four and a half.
37:07
Speaker 1: Bears are four and a half point home underdogs. A
37:11
Speaker 1: couple of things to keep in mind, home underdogs getting
37:15
Speaker 1: twenty of the bets. Simon no Rainer Foxhole. Let's clide
37:25
Speaker 1: down into the foxhole. We are in it together. We
37:31
Speaker 1: are in the Foxhole on the resurgent Chicago Bears, who
37:37
Speaker 1: are three and two and are going to fight for
37:40
Speaker 1: the right to win the n f C North with
37:46
Speaker 1: Justin Field as the quarterback. People don't realize this is
37:51
Speaker 1: for the first place in the North chet that's where
37:53
Speaker 1: it is. This is mental. They didn't play great last
37:57
Speaker 1: week that Justin Field and miss Coomes big past is
38:00
Speaker 1: coming home. We've seen it. They've just played better at
38:03
Speaker 1: home this season. They the defense plays better, the offense
38:07
Speaker 1: plays better. I'm not gonna lie. I was nervous by
38:10
Speaker 1: Montgomery of being out. I thought that was gonna be
38:12
Speaker 1: a pretty big deal for this Bears team because he
38:14
Speaker 1: just runs so hard for them. The backups played well
38:17
Speaker 1: in that game for them. They're running the ball really
38:19
Speaker 1: well against this Raiders team. So you're giving me four
38:22
Speaker 1: and a half a divisional game at home, Oh well,
38:27
Speaker 1: we'll take the Bears. The only thing I won't recommend
38:30
Speaker 1: is the money line. Just because Rogers has burned me.
38:33
Speaker 1: You leave him thirty seconds on the clock all he
38:35
Speaker 1: needs a field goal to win. He burns me every time.
38:38
Speaker 1: So that's the only fear here where Naggy and Justin Fields.
38:42
Speaker 1: I don't know if I had the faith in them
38:43
Speaker 1: to melt this game away with a lead, but a
38:46
Speaker 1: four and a half anything above before you take this people,
38:49
Speaker 1: you're very happy to take this because I had just
38:51
Speaker 1: have three and a half, So love love the number
38:54
Speaker 1: of four and a half. I mean, the only thing is,
38:56
Speaker 1: you know, will it go higher? That's the one thing
38:58
Speaker 1: we have to ask ourselves. It won't because pros are
39:00
Speaker 1: gonna come in on it. This is such a pro
39:02
Speaker 1: pro will love this game. You have a great Bears
39:05
Speaker 1: defense at home against green Bay just has their little issues.
39:09
Speaker 1: They had their issues against the Bengals, they had their
39:11
Speaker 1: kicking issues. Their their defense is still suspect of all
39:14
Speaker 1: the injuries they've had to it. There's just something missing
39:17
Speaker 1: there that green Bay team. So a four and a half,
39:21
Speaker 1: it's just a no brainer play for me. A lot
39:23
Speaker 1: of home teams again this week. Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns.
39:28
Speaker 1: The undefeated, best team in the NFL. Arizona Cardinals are
39:33
Speaker 1: on the road against the Cleveland Browns. This is the
39:35
Speaker 1: most interesting game on the board to me. At one
39:39
Speaker 1: point at on Sunday evenings, shortly after the Cardinals had
39:43
Speaker 1: barely beaten and struggled against Trey Lance and Er, shortly
39:47
Speaker 1: after the Browns had blown big leads and then lost
39:50
Speaker 1: a heartbreaking game to the Los Angeles Chargers, this line
39:54
Speaker 1: was four and a half Cardinals plus four and a half.
39:59
Speaker 1: It got down to three. Now it's two and a half.
40:03
Speaker 1: Brown's favorite by two and a half. UM. I don't
40:07
Speaker 1: know how you don't take a very short less than
40:12
Speaker 1: a field goal home favorite in this game. It feels
40:15
Speaker 1: like a trap. It feels too easy. I love the Browns,
40:19
Speaker 1: love them, love them, love and love them all, all
40:21
Speaker 1: the different matchups and all favorites the Browns. Scary, scary line.
40:26
Speaker 1: I don't know why it's come down so much. I
40:28
Speaker 1: don't know what the professionals are seeing with the Cardinals
40:30
Speaker 1: and why they're betting this line down so much, But
40:33
Speaker 1: they ever read on this, so this is one of these.
40:35
Speaker 1: I'll wait to talk to their pros and see what
40:37
Speaker 1: they're seeing and why they're betting this number. But right
40:39
Speaker 1: when this opened, I like Cleveland. I love this matchup.
40:43
Speaker 1: The The Cardinals aren't as good as their record says
40:46
Speaker 1: they are. UM, and Cleveland isn't as bad as their
40:49
Speaker 1: record says they are. They've just played a really hard schedule.
40:52
Speaker 1: That Chief lost, the Chargers lost. Those are two of
40:55
Speaker 1: the best, you know, five six teams in the FC.
40:58
Speaker 1: So it's it's scary, it's scary to be Chad, but
41:01
Speaker 1: of course we love we love the Mince two and
41:03
Speaker 1: a half. I just I'm gonna wait on betting it
41:05
Speaker 1: just until I talk to more people. This will be
41:07
Speaker 1: one of the games when we talk Thursday and we
41:09
Speaker 1: do Sharp Calls on Thursday. You know, for anyone listening,
41:12
Speaker 1: we'll do another podcast on Thursday when they were down
41:14
Speaker 1: the field. We'll talk about the games that we love
41:16
Speaker 1: the most and you try to set up our five
41:17
Speaker 1: favorite for Sunday. This will be one of the Sharp
41:20
Speaker 1: Calls conversations where your wise guys will call you in
41:23
Speaker 1: the next forty eight hours and then we'll pick apart
41:25
Speaker 1: what they said in the games that they said you
41:26
Speaker 1: were right and wrong on will be one of them.
41:29
Speaker 1: And like I've been texting guys about it, we're all
41:32
Speaker 1: really interested in this line because this is one of
41:33
Speaker 1: the more interesting lines of the week, just the movement
41:36
Speaker 1: on it, where it started at now where it's down to.
41:38
Speaker 1: It's just it's interesting thinking, well, group and what pros
41:41
Speaker 1: are hitting the snob or bring it down. You gotta
41:44
Speaker 1: find out what people are thinking, well, what are the
41:47
Speaker 1: syndicates saying Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots. Cowboys are
41:53
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites on the road right now.
41:54
Speaker 1: This game opened with the Cowboys. You know, this is
41:57
Speaker 1: a big look aheadline, and the Cowboys were one and
42:00
Speaker 1: half point dogs. Huge swing, So we have to ask ourselves,
42:04
Speaker 1: the Cowboys really five points better than what we thought
42:07
Speaker 1: they were, say two or three weeks ago against the Patriots. No,
42:11
Speaker 1: but I would have been way happier if the if
42:13
Speaker 1: the Patriots had lost to the Houston because this would
42:15
Speaker 1: have been a great position with them the bounce back
42:17
Speaker 1: and at home with Belichick and that defense. But I'll
42:22
Speaker 1: just stay away from it. I'll take the Patriots, but
42:24
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna make people take it with us just
42:26
Speaker 1: because the Cowboys are the best team against the spread.
42:29
Speaker 1: They're just blowing teams out. They're just they're cruising right
42:31
Speaker 1: now that they're kind of one of these teams they
42:33
Speaker 1: break the rules, and as a pro I have to
42:35
Speaker 1: take this number. It's inflated at four and four and
42:38
Speaker 1: a half. But I'm not gonna asking you guys that
42:40
Speaker 1: beout this number because I just hate losing people money.
42:43
Speaker 1: Only only pros are betting the Patriots. If you want
42:46
Speaker 1: to bet with the Pros this week, you bet the Patriots.
42:48
Speaker 1: It's just probably when, like you know, my three or
42:50
Speaker 1: four bigger bets I'll have this week will be the Patriots.
42:53
Speaker 1: But really, yeah, just because it's I really do think
42:58
Speaker 1: Dallas is legit, Like I bet them super all best
43:00
Speaker 1: record in football, but the turnover luck they've had, the
43:03
Speaker 1: injury luck they've had during their games, and certain guys
43:06
Speaker 1: going down the other team, all these little things have
43:08
Speaker 1: just really broken the Cowboys away. And I have to
43:12
Speaker 1: trust Belichick at home in this situation. So not that
43:16
Speaker 1: I love doing it. Um, just again we talked about
43:18
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are five and oh eight t s to
43:20
Speaker 1: start the year. There, they are literally on fire. But
43:23
Speaker 1: I have to take the Patriots. That's just four at home,
43:27
Speaker 1: way way too big of a number. What are the
43:30
Speaker 1: other three or four big bets that you have this week?
43:32
Speaker 1: Have we not hit on them yet? I know we
43:35
Speaker 1: hit it. I hit the Bears early. That was one
43:38
Speaker 1: of my bigger bets. And then you know, again it's
43:42
Speaker 1: not my biggest bet. We haven't gotten to it yet,
43:45
Speaker 1: but well hold on, we'll get there. Okay, don't say yet,
43:49
Speaker 1: but I'm surprised, Like what from my point of view.
43:54
Speaker 1: Why wouldn't I want to go with what your three
43:57
Speaker 1: or four biggest bets are. You're saying we're not going
43:59
Speaker 1: to talk about the Patriots. I'm gonna not think about
44:00
Speaker 1: putting it in. But now I'm intrigued. I almost feel
44:03
Speaker 1: like I have to. Well, I mean we can talk
44:05
Speaker 1: about Thursday. I would just I just want people to
44:08
Speaker 1: better right now. I just think you could wait and
44:10
Speaker 1: you might be able to get a better number because
44:12
Speaker 1: the public is gonna come in really heaving on this
44:14
Speaker 1: Dallas team. This is every money line party, every teaser
44:17
Speaker 1: will have Dallas turn in there just because everyone's like me,
44:20
Speaker 1: No one thinks that Patriots are a good team. I
44:23
Speaker 1: just don't think the Patriots are as bad as people
44:24
Speaker 1: think they are right now. So that's why. Yeah, well
44:27
Speaker 1: we'll see how you feel on Thursday. It's just as
44:29
Speaker 1: we sit here right now. Chat, I wouldn't say no,
44:31
Speaker 1: take that four you have too? What do you have
44:33
Speaker 1: this power? Rated? App three? I did a field goal.
44:36
Speaker 1: I just saw it, you know, like the Cowboys women
44:39
Speaker 1: by field goal that that's a that's a normal game,
44:42
Speaker 1: or like because of all the kicking crap, I've changed
44:45
Speaker 1: my numbers a lot where we're like two and two
44:47
Speaker 1: and a half as a key number now, So it's
44:49
Speaker 1: it's interesting that they've moved this all way up to
44:52
Speaker 1: four or four and a half in with his books.
44:56
Speaker 1: The next game on the board, Las Vegas Raiders at Denver.
45:00
Speaker 1: An goes your reference before we came on. It's stucky
45:03
Speaker 1: in the years past, and we'll have to update this story.
45:06
Speaker 1: Has done a great story about the first game four
45:09
Speaker 1: teams after a coaches fired. Are we taking advantage of that?
45:13
Speaker 1: With the Raiders is three and a half point underdogs
45:16
Speaker 1: at Denver. This is one of my bigger bets. Chat No, Yeah,
45:21
Speaker 1: love love love the Radors in this position, Uh, Denver,
45:27
Speaker 1: it's kind of fool's gold, vic Fango. I kind of
45:29
Speaker 1: bought into the hype because of the season started, because
45:31
Speaker 1: they were playing so well against all these bad teams.
45:34
Speaker 1: They just haven't had it. Yeah, I thought it was
45:36
Speaker 1: kind of bullshit, but I expected it from them. Their
45:39
Speaker 1: secondaries not look good. Now they're playing against a team
45:43
Speaker 1: here in Las Vegas that how can you not think
45:46
Speaker 1: they're gonna bounce back in a big way. Again, I
45:48
Speaker 1: didn't love the Raiders when I think it was out
45:49
Speaker 1: a pick or minus one, but now you're giving me
45:51
Speaker 1: three and a half just because Gruden got fired. Love it.
45:55
Speaker 1: I like a team in TURMOI where they kind of
45:57
Speaker 1: got rid of Not that we're saying ruins a can here,
46:01
Speaker 1: but he talked I mean, you talked down about the
46:02
Speaker 1: gay community, you talked down about the black community. He's
46:05
Speaker 1: a gay player, He's a bunch of black players on
46:07
Speaker 1: the team. How do you think they felt last week
46:09
Speaker 1: playing for this guy? So that's gone. It just feels
46:12
Speaker 1: like this is gonna be a real team unity moment
46:14
Speaker 1: for them. They're playing against the different team that's reeling.
46:17
Speaker 1: I don't know why they would be favorite at three
46:19
Speaker 1: and a half against anybody at home, let alone a
46:21
Speaker 1: division rival. So love love this number three and a
46:24
Speaker 1: half of the Traders team, Simon. I feel like we're
46:27
Speaker 1: we're bearing the lead here. This is one of your
46:30
Speaker 1: biggest bets of the week. It's gonna be on a
46:33
Speaker 1: team that's reeling, that just fired its coach. Almost by definition,
46:38
Speaker 1: this is a big balls better the week. This definitely
46:46
Speaker 1: just gonna take balls. This will this bet will Uh.
46:49
Speaker 1: It's scary when I bet it, and I'm still scared
46:51
Speaker 1: even looking at it. I think we've just nailed it.
46:53
Speaker 1: I think our Simon says bet is the Washington football
46:56
Speaker 1: team plus seven against the Kansas City Chiefs. And I
47:00
Speaker 1: think our big balls better than week has got to
47:02
Speaker 1: be the Las Vegas Raiders plus three and a half
47:05
Speaker 1: against the Denver Broncos, bing bang boom. Love it. You
47:12
Speaker 1: find my enthusiasm to be infectious. I do. I can't
47:16
Speaker 1: believe you still cracked me up all these years in Chad.
47:19
Speaker 1: I figured i'd be sick of you bright now, but
47:20
Speaker 1: now still you still got it button. By the way,
47:24
Speaker 1: there are times, even last night, where I did something
47:28
Speaker 1: uh and my wife started laughing, and nobody get any ideas.
47:33
Speaker 1: I said something funny and I looked at her and
47:36
Speaker 1: I go, you still think I'm funny? She just does.
47:41
Speaker 1: I'm impossible not to think. It's impossible not to think
47:44
Speaker 1: I'm funny. It's my reaction. My uh son, who's a
47:50
Speaker 1: way of college, would say, uh that I'm just way
47:53
Speaker 1: extra uh in my enthusiasm, and that's why people laugh
47:57
Speaker 1: at it. But I don't care. I don't care why.
48:00
Speaker 1: As long as people are feeling entertained and connected to
48:02
Speaker 1: me through laughter, that's what it's all about that's all
48:06
Speaker 1: that matters. My friend Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers. When
48:11
Speaker 1: they booked this game for Sunday Night Football, they were
48:16
Speaker 1: definitely thinking it was going to be a much better
48:18
Speaker 1: matchup than this one. I hate the Camplex yet like
48:22
Speaker 1: the Ravens, Chargers, Cardinals, Browns. Like either of those so
48:27
Speaker 1: much better than this game. Four and half point favorites.
48:31
Speaker 1: I know you feel like you have to bet every
48:33
Speaker 1: single game, so you're gonna have a take on this game.
48:35
Speaker 1: But I don't think this is a game that we're
48:38
Speaker 1: like locking in for five five favorite No. I mean, like,
48:42
Speaker 1: at first glance, I kind of like the Seahawks just
48:44
Speaker 1: because you you know, yeah, he's bad, but he's worse
48:47
Speaker 1: than Roethlisberger. I feel like this is kind of an
48:49
Speaker 1: even matchup GV wise, Like Roethlisberger is just a corpse
48:52
Speaker 1: out there in Gina Smith. He can make plays area
48:55
Speaker 1: and we saw him drive the field ninety yards. It's
48:57
Speaker 1: coore a touchdown. UM also saw the inner steption, so
49:00
Speaker 1: it's like that's just gino. So yeah, it won't be
49:03
Speaker 1: one of our best five because you're no real value here.
49:05
Speaker 1: But I leaned towards the dog in this situation, just
49:08
Speaker 1: because that's a lot of points for Big Ben to
49:10
Speaker 1: be favorite at home. I know that Gino smits a backup,
49:15
Speaker 1: but are we sure Roethlisberg is not a backup. It's
49:19
Speaker 1: kind of one of these things where it's like this
49:20
Speaker 1: line would be fair three three and a half, which
49:23
Speaker 1: it was, and now it's up the four and a half.
49:26
Speaker 1: I'll take the Seahawks, but I don't feel great about it.
49:28
Speaker 1: That is one of the smartest, most cutting mean things
49:33
Speaker 1: anyone has ever said. We know he's playing against the backup,
49:37
Speaker 1: but are we sure Ben Roethlisberger isn't a backup? And
49:40
Speaker 1: you're not wrong? Like it doesn't look great out there.
49:45
Speaker 1: God help anybody who decides they're staying up super late
49:50
Speaker 1: because they're sweating the Steelers and the Seahawks on Sunday exactly.
49:55
Speaker 1: I will be in deep ram when that game is
49:58
Speaker 1: is is getting finished last and a teaser to ten
50:02
Speaker 1: and a half. That's that's a great number to have
50:03
Speaker 1: against Big Ben. Last game on the board, Buffalo Bills
50:07
Speaker 1: at Tennessee Titans. Oh goodness, Matt Mitchell. The Bills are
50:12
Speaker 1: five and a half point favorites. Right now again all
50:16
Speaker 1: the money. This feels. This feels Mike Rabel at home
50:21
Speaker 1: firing up the troops. Trap is zoid of a trap.
50:25
Speaker 1: I was with you until I logged onto bet Labs
50:28
Speaker 1: and I saw Josh Allen's record in primetime games, and man,
50:34
Speaker 1: this you couldn't have asked the worst matchup for this
50:37
Speaker 1: Tennessee's defense against Josh Owen. Everything he does well and
50:40
Speaker 1: everything that Bills do well is the worst thing that
50:44
Speaker 1: the uh, this Tennessee defense can defend. So weird number,
50:48
Speaker 1: scary number. I obviously love the Bills. It feels like
50:51
Speaker 1: I'm falling to a trap with the public here because
50:54
Speaker 1: the bookmakers know what they're doing hanging this funny line.
50:56
Speaker 1: They know that everyone's gonna come in on this Bills
50:58
Speaker 1: team and very will be taking the Tennessee Titans team.
51:01
Speaker 1: But I I looked at it long and hard. I
51:06
Speaker 1: cannot do it with this Tennessee team. I just can't
51:09
Speaker 1: take them at that number. If this was seven, I'd
51:11
Speaker 1: be into it. I would really like him as a
51:13
Speaker 1: home dog. Here. The fact that's still under six with
51:16
Speaker 1: the with this Bills team, I'll take that number in.
51:20
Speaker 1: You know, if Josh Allen has a bad game and
51:23
Speaker 1: I lose his bet. That's way more shocking the Tennessee
51:25
Speaker 1: team blowing out this Bills team. So I think you're
51:28
Speaker 1: get good getting value as only the stays under six
51:31
Speaker 1: for this Bills team. I mean, you hate this Tennessee's
51:34
Speaker 1: team in every everything. You really hate this I really did.
51:38
Speaker 1: I really dislike them, um, because they've they've They've just
51:42
Speaker 1: gotten lucky and so many different things where it's like
51:45
Speaker 1: that Seahawks game. If they don't win that, they'd be
51:47
Speaker 1: sitting here with one winning the season. And it begins
51:49
Speaker 1: this crappy Colts team and then they beat the Jaguars
51:52
Speaker 1: and it's like every little thing is going right for
51:54
Speaker 1: this Tennessee team. Maybe I antrew down on them, but
51:57
Speaker 1: this is a horrible, horrible matchup for this Tennessee's defense.
52:00
Speaker 1: And it's nothing against Tannehill. I just don't think he
52:04
Speaker 1: is as good as he had looked the previous two years.
52:06
Speaker 1: He's kind of come back to earth this season. I
52:08
Speaker 1: think that's what he is. Where Josh Allen, this guy
52:11
Speaker 1: is ascending. He's becoming a top three quarterback. Tannehill is
52:14
Speaker 1: kind of going back to the pack of bean, you know,
52:17
Speaker 1: middle fifteen, middle twenty quarterback in this league. He's just
52:20
Speaker 1: not a winner, where Derrick Henry is the game changer
52:23
Speaker 1: on that team. So we'll see what the Bills do.
52:26
Speaker 1: I see the defensive stop for the Bills. They're just
52:28
Speaker 1: gonna come and shut down the run. I let Tannell
52:30
Speaker 1: beat them. I just don't think you can do that
52:32
Speaker 1: at this number. Matt Mitchell, you have anything you want
52:34
Speaker 1: to add about this game? Are you feeling any particular
52:38
Speaker 1: way right now? The Bills make something, throw your hand something,
52:46
Speaker 1: throw your hands, making it happen now. I just said
52:52
Speaker 1: the Bills are an unstoppable war machine who will stop
52:56
Speaker 1: at nothing to dominate not only the National Football League,
52:59
Speaker 1: but would argue that the world at large also. Revenge
53:03
Speaker 1: game from last year one of the weirdest primetime games,
53:06
Speaker 1: Josh Ellen felt flat. Yeah, it was a bizarre game,
53:10
Speaker 1: and they bounced back after that after they got healthier.
53:12
Speaker 1: But I don't think that's going to be lost under
53:14
Speaker 1: Bills coaching step this year. They got their revenge against
53:16
Speaker 1: Kansas City and then hyping up the troops for another
53:18
Speaker 1: revenge spot taking names all season. Yeah, number one scoring
53:21
Speaker 1: offense and number one scoring defense, you're Buffalo Bills, Matt Mitchell. Yeah,
53:27
Speaker 1: those happening now. Feels a happy now're making it happy now,
53:34
Speaker 1: spirits a lot of spirit. Yeah, the spirit happening now amazing,
53:41
Speaker 1: just asking it like I've never had my team as
53:43
Speaker 1: number one see it at sports books to be gonna
53:46
Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. The Bills are the odds on
53:49
Speaker 1: favorite to win the Super Bowl this year. And enjoying
53:51
Speaker 1: this feeling, Managell. This is truly incredible. The shame they're
53:54
Speaker 1: not giving out ranks in the middle of October. It
53:56
Speaker 1: is a shame. Alright, We've gone through the entire slate.
53:59
Speaker 1: Here are the games that we're to narrow down and
54:00
Speaker 1: focus on on Thursday, pending any sharp calls from Simon's
54:05
Speaker 1: professional betting friends where they feel like our take is
54:08
Speaker 1: way on or way off and we need to make
54:10
Speaker 1: them some consideration. Also, will review the relevant line moves,
54:15
Speaker 1: injury updates, anything that is impacting lines markets our decision.
54:20
Speaker 1: Uh god, I can't believe that we love the Texans
54:25
Speaker 1: plus ten against the Colt, the Washington football team plus
54:27
Speaker 1: seven against case C. We like Detroit plus three and
54:32
Speaker 1: a half. Simon's probably gonna bet him on the money
54:34
Speaker 1: line too. Bears plus four and a half against the Packers,
54:38
Speaker 1: Browns minus two and a half. That one's making us
54:40
Speaker 1: a little itchy against the Cards, Uh Pats plus four
54:44
Speaker 1: one of Simon's biggest bets of the week. His biggest
54:47
Speaker 1: bet of the week so far, Big Balls better the
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Speaker 1: week Raiders plus three and a half against the Broncos.
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Speaker 1: Simon says, bet Washington Football team plus seven. We will
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Speaker 1: be back on Thursday to break it down even more
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Speaker 1: for Simon Hunter A M. Chad Noman. This has been
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Speaker 1: the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. Download from Spotify,
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Speaker 1: Apple Podcast. Until next time, I Love You,