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Are American consumers finally starting to get thrifty? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 3: last week or two.
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Speaker 2: Here PAB, we got a piece.
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Speaker 3: That we're gonna kick this hour off with. It's from
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Speaker 3: market Watch, and I gotta be honest. The person who
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Speaker 3: did the title, I think thought that this week was
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Speaker 3: last week. They said it's a pivotal week for earnings.
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Speaker 2: Not really.
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Speaker 3: Last week was kind of the big one by market
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Speaker 3: cap where you had you know, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft,
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Speaker 3: you know them reporting that they're a little bit bigger
3:10
Speaker 3: deal than Live Nation who's in the subheader here. But
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Speaker 3: this is talking about Hey, this week, we have a
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Speaker 3: bunch of consumer focused companies that are reporting earnings. I
3:19
Speaker 3: mean Microsoft look is as you know, big of an
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Speaker 3: important company as they are no one.
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Speaker 2: No one goes out and like.
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Speaker 3: Buys a bunch of Microsoft surface tablets anymore, aside from companies,
3:28
Speaker 3: I don't even know if they make those anymore. Quite honestly,
3:31
Speaker 3: I think they do, because don't they doesn't.
3:33
Speaker 4: The NFL house has a deal with them, does anyone.
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Speaker 3: Aside from is that the whole thing. The NFL just
3:37
Speaker 3: gets free ones and they don't make them for anyone else.
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Speaker 4: I haven't seen any other people use them.
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Speaker 3: It's been a while since I've seen a surface tablet
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Speaker 3: in the wild, aside from the NFL. But this week,
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Speaker 3: in terms of consumer facing companies that we're going to
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Speaker 3: be getting, we've got most of them kickoff on Wednesday, McDonald's, Disney, Uber, Airbnb,
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Speaker 3: Door Dash, that's all on Wednesday. Thursday, we've got I
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Speaker 3: saw a couple more that we're floating around out there somewhere.
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Speaker 3: Maybe Thursday wasn't the day. Now, I guess that's it
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Speaker 3: for this week, and then we get a couple more
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Speaker 3: next week. But I think the big thing that you
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Speaker 3: want to be hearing from these companies, they're in a
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Speaker 3: few different price points in a few different industries. What
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Speaker 3: are you seeing from consumers and how are they spending
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Speaker 3: As we're into the second half of the year. For McDonald's, Hey,
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Speaker 3: are you still feeling pushback on pricing? How are you
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Speaker 3: dealing with that? What's going on there Disney? What's going
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Speaker 3: on with Parks? He's still getting people going for five
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Speaker 3: days or are they cutting those trips back to four
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Speaker 3: because they don't have as much money to spend? Uber
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Speaker 3: and DoorDash, what's going on with discretionary No one needs
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Speaker 3: to take an Uber, No one needs to order cheesecake
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Speaker 3: factory delivered to their house. Are you seeing any changes
4:52
Speaker 3: in those trends from Airbnb? Hotel chains, and airlines are
4:58
Speaker 3: telling us that travel is pulling back. Is Airbnb seeing
5:01
Speaker 3: that or are they the beneficiary of people who might
5:04
Speaker 3: not be staying in hotels, might be staying closer to
5:06
Speaker 3: home and that's how they're traveling instead. So I think
5:09
Speaker 3: there's a lot of meat that you can get from
5:11
Speaker 3: the consumer companies that report this week.
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Speaker 4: Yeah. The one that kicked it off that has.
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Speaker 5: You know, in US a little bit concerned on the
5:18
Speaker 5: consumer spending trend is Chipotle cut its annual outlook last
5:21
Speaker 5: week for the second time this year. Now, assuming that
5:24
Speaker 5: they're gonna be flat in terms of sales growth this year,
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Speaker 5: and that's a kind of discretionary food space where that's
5:32
Speaker 5: kicked off the earnings week, and we'll see if trends
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Speaker 5: fall in line with some of these other discretionary companies
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Speaker 5: over the course of this week.
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Speaker 3: I think the the other piece just that I'm interested
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Speaker 3: in hearing on hearing about from, you know, some of
5:47
Speaker 3: these companies. And again, these are not great ones for
5:51
Speaker 3: tariff impact just because again, like you look at it,
5:54
Speaker 3: and what's Uber gonna tell you about the tariff impact?
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Speaker 2: Nothing? Right, Like, they're not going to tell you anything directly.
6:00
Speaker 2: Uber does not.
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Speaker 3: Why would anything related to Uber have any tariff costs
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Speaker 3: associated with it?
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Speaker 2: They wouldn't.
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Speaker 3: But as you get out a little bit further, you
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Speaker 3: start getting into, you know, some of the other companies
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Speaker 3: that start reporting in the retail space, which is going
6:14
Speaker 3: to be a couple weeks out where you get you know,
6:15
Speaker 3: the Walmarts and Targets home depot lows. They're usually two
6:19
Speaker 3: weeks after all these ones, So it'll be like the
6:22
Speaker 3: week of August seventeenth, I think, is when a lot
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Speaker 3: of those will end up being. But how are they
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Speaker 3: dealing with pricing on that side, What are they seeing
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Speaker 3: and how's that all filtering into the system is going
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Speaker 3: to be kind of interesting to break down there. The
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Speaker 3: other piece when we look at restaurants in particular, big
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Speaker 3: theme in the second quarter, I guess in the first
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Speaker 3: quarter earnings was kind of broad weakness and restaurants. Remember
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Speaker 3: it was McDonald said that there was stuff going on.
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Speaker 3: Chipotle even then said that they had a few things.
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Speaker 3: The only restaurant company that said things were going great,
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Speaker 3: Tucker was a Chilis or Applebee's.
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Speaker 2: I always forgets Chili's. Chili's.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, the same store sales, we're up like thirty one percent,
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Speaker 3: and everyone else is sitting there going, oh, like yeah,
7:10
Speaker 3: we're seeing modest single digit declines, like we can't really
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Speaker 3: get anywhere. Is that what we're seeing across the board
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Speaker 3: from big chain restaurants still or are things starting to
7:20
Speaker 3: shift more positively there? Because Q one for restaurants was
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Speaker 3: not great. Now we've got one data point with Chipotle
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Speaker 3: saying yeah, things aren't aren't good for us. Starbucks, I guess,
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Speaker 3: I mean, I don't really consider them a restaurant in
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Speaker 3: the traditional sense. No, but they didn't either, so you know,
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Speaker 3: I want to see broadly, what are we seeing from restaurants.
7:40
Speaker 3: The one I always love looking at is Darden just
7:43
Speaker 3: because they've got such a.
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Speaker 5: They've got the mix of the high end and the
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Speaker 5: the mid mid end.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just such a broad portfolio where you go
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Speaker 3: from you know, Ruth Chris and Capitol Grill down to
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Speaker 3: Old and so like. It covers a lot of price points.
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Speaker 3: Then you got stuff in between like yard House and
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Speaker 3: stuff like that. So they're always an interesting one just
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Speaker 3: because you get a bunch of brands under one umbrella
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Speaker 3: and you can see what's going on there and how
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Speaker 3: things are moving on that front.
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Speaker 4: Take a quick break.
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Speaker 3: When we return, we're gonna be joined by Rebecca Risk
8:16
Speaker 3: from Robert Half talking about their latest survey on worker
8:20
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Speaker 3: As promised, We're now joined by Rebecca Risk from Robert
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Speaker 3: Half here to talk about their latest survey of worker
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Speaker 3: mobility trends. Rebecca, thank you so much for joining us today.
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Speaker 7: Yeah, thanks for having me.
9:46
Speaker 4: Can you talk a little.
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Speaker 3: Bit about some of the major data that you saw
9:50
Speaker 3: in terms of workers looking for new jobs and how
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Speaker 3: they're approaching that today.
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Speaker 7: Yeah, I think we're seeing that or at least from
9:58
Speaker 7: our our recent survey, we're seeing that about seventy three
10:00
Speaker 7: percent of workers plan to stay in their current role
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Speaker 7: through the end of the year, which is a little
10:06
Speaker 7: bit increased from years past. The main consideration in that
10:11
Speaker 7: is to maintain the flexibility that they have with their
10:14
Speaker 7: current employers. So that's an interesting trend that we're seeing.
10:18
Speaker 3: When you look at the decline in workers looking for
10:22
Speaker 3: a new job, what are the major reasons why we're
10:26
Speaker 3: still We're just not seeing more people looking around right now.
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Speaker 7: So I think it's definitely the trying to maintain their flexibility. Obviously,
10:34
Speaker 7: when you start a new job, you know there might
10:35
Speaker 7: be you know, a fully on site schedule or something
10:38
Speaker 7: along those lines. I also think there's an awareness of
10:40
Speaker 7: the fact that, you know, anyone looking for a new
10:43
Speaker 7: job is up against a lot of competition, so I
10:45
Speaker 7: think that that's one factor as well. But I think
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Speaker 7: it is the biggest factor that I think we're seeing
10:51
Speaker 7: is the flexibility. So I think employers, you know, should
10:55
Speaker 7: certainly take note and try to offer flexible schedules when
10:57
Speaker 7: they're trying to attract top talent.
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Speaker 3: Reconcile that with all of the companies that have been
11:02
Speaker 3: out there saying we're you know, mandating full return to
11:05
Speaker 3: work and things along those lines.
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Speaker 2: How does this all fit together?
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Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean I think it's a direct correlation, right.
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Speaker 7: I think a lot of potential job seekers are aware that,
11:14
Speaker 7: you know, they might have a good situation where they are,
11:17
Speaker 7: and their desire to maintain that flexibility might trump their
11:21
Speaker 7: desire to see an increase in salary or you know,
11:24
Speaker 7: more career growth.
11:26
Speaker 3: What about people deciding, hey, I want to go do
11:28
Speaker 3: something else. Are workers open to changing fields or do
11:32
Speaker 3: we see most people trying to stick with what's familiar
11:35
Speaker 3: to them.
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Speaker 7: I think a lot of people are very open minded
11:38
Speaker 7: to the idea of changing industries. The thought process being,
11:41
Speaker 7: you know, folks that are in industries that are having
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Speaker 7: layoffs or high turnover or just like lack of stability,
11:46
Speaker 7: they're looking towards industries that you know, historically don't have
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Speaker 7: quite as much of that.
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Speaker 5: You know.
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Speaker 7: The main thought that I have there would be, like
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Speaker 7: accounting and finance is something that I think a lot
11:55
Speaker 7: of people are trying to figure out, right, what transferable
11:57
Speaker 7: skills do I have that could help me to you know,
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Speaker 7: get my foot in the door into a career like,
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Speaker 7: you know, those that I mentioned that might have a
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Speaker 7: little bit more stability in the future.
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Speaker 3: One of the stories that I've been seeing over the
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Speaker 3: last six months or so is recent grads struggling to
12:15
Speaker 3: get into the job market. For those that do have jobs,
12:19
Speaker 3: the gen zers that are you know, in place, are
12:22
Speaker 3: they content with where they are or are we seeing
12:24
Speaker 3: them moving jobs at a higher rate than other demos.
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Speaker 7: I think in certain sectors we're seeing people of all
12:33
Speaker 7: demographics moving jobs, but for recent grads probably it's more likely.
12:37
Speaker 7: We're definitely more likely to see those people be the
12:39
Speaker 7: ones that are open minded to a career choice or
12:41
Speaker 7: career change.
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Speaker 1: You know.
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Speaker 7: I think that recent grads what we're seeing, or just
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Speaker 7: the younger demographic in the workforce, they are tending to
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Speaker 7: put perks and benefits above other things in their job search,
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Speaker 7: which I think is interesting because it's definitely a different
12:58
Speaker 7: motivator than we've seen in the past. According to data
13:02
Speaker 7: that we've seen recently.
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Speaker 3: How important is compensation as a driver in this You
13:07
Speaker 3: mentioned flexibility is a key reason why people are staying.
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Speaker 3: Is compensation the main reason why people switch? Or is
13:13
Speaker 3: that a reason why they report their staying as well.
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Speaker 7: So I think, I mean, compensation is always going to
13:18
Speaker 7: be important, right, compensation career growth. But like I said,
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Speaker 7: this is the first time since this kind of data
13:24
Speaker 7: has been reported that we're seeing that perks and benefits
13:28
Speaker 7: are actually more important to job seekers than salary. But
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Speaker 7: I think for people that are choosing to stay in
13:36
Speaker 7: their job, that's where the flexibility piece is the most important.
13:41
Speaker 3: It's still fair to refer to this job market overall
13:44
Speaker 3: as one where there's not a lot in the way
13:46
Speaker 3: of layoffs, but hirings also relatively slow as well.
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Speaker 7: I think yes and no. I think that there's a
13:53
Speaker 7: lot that the market seems to have slowed from where
13:56
Speaker 7: it was, you know, two three years ago, obviously, but
13:59
Speaker 7: there's still a pretty heavy demand for critical roles, you know, accounting, finding,
14:04
Speaker 7: HR technology, things like that are still hiring at a
14:08
Speaker 7: fast clip, and we're seeing a lot of demand in
14:10
Speaker 7: those spaces.
14:11
Speaker 3: Fantastic, Rebecca, anything else that you want to add as
14:14
Speaker 3: part of this survey, anything else that we didn't cover.
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Speaker 7: The only thing I would add is that I think
14:19
Speaker 7: it's really important, I think for employers to take note,
14:21
Speaker 7: you know, and kind of adjust their approach to attracting
14:25
Speaker 7: top talent. You know, benefits, perks, those things are really important.
14:28
Speaker 7: Flexibility is really important. Things of that nature that they
14:31
Speaker 7: might not have considered above and beyond salary in the
14:33
Speaker 7: past will help to attract you know, talent that you
14:37
Speaker 7: know will be you know, potentially better than some of
14:39
Speaker 7: the other folks they're currently attracting.
14:41
Speaker 3: Fantastic, Rebecca, thanks again for joining us, and we will
14:44
Speaker 3: catch up with you soon.
14:45
Speaker 7: Thank you.
14:46
Speaker 3: That is Rebecca Risk from Robert Haff talking about their
14:49
Speaker 3: survey about worker mobility.
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Speaker 3: Before we get to our next story, Paul, I just
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Speaker 3: saw a little chiron come across the screen from CNBC
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Speaker 3: that UH chat GPT just hit seven hundred million weekly
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Speaker 3: users for the first time ever. That's up four x
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Speaker 3: from this time last year.
16:00
Speaker 2: Wow.
16:01
Speaker 3: So there's that American consumers are getting thrifty again. This
16:07
Speaker 3: is a headline from the Wall Street Journal. And I
16:13
Speaker 3: guess my question is and look, so here here's the
16:17
Speaker 3: deal for anyone listening who's not familiar with our show.
16:20
Speaker 3: I'm a millennial, which no longer means that I'm twenty three, okay,
16:24
Speaker 3: it means that I'm you know, closer to forty than
16:26
Speaker 3: anything else. And ultimately it means that most of my
16:31
Speaker 3: adult life has been in an economy that generally was
16:36
Speaker 3: mostly slow. I would say, you know, the first two
16:41
Speaker 3: thirds of the twenty tens were pretty slow, late two
16:45
Speaker 3: thousands were pretty slow, and.
16:47
Speaker 4: The last by economic growth or yeah what else?
16:50
Speaker 2: Yeah what else?
16:51
Speaker 4: Stock market? It's pretty in the stock market.
16:54
Speaker 2: You can't eat the stock market.
16:56
Speaker 3: You know okay, I mean you can, but just doesn't
16:58
Speaker 3: taste very good. So ultimately, like I've lived my adult
17:03
Speaker 3: life in an economy that generally hasn't seen great economic growth, okay,
17:08
Speaker 3: you know, like housing crash in the aftermath and then
17:12
Speaker 3: like high inflation and now slowing growth and stuff. It's
17:15
Speaker 3: basically you kind of look at and you go, Okay,
17:17
Speaker 3: the last three years of Trump's first term were a
17:22
Speaker 3: really good economy, and the first two thirds of twenty twenty.
17:27
Speaker 2: One was a really good economy.
17:30
Speaker 3: And other than that, there's always been something that's kind
17:32
Speaker 3: of a mess, but that that's always the case. Like
17:33
Speaker 3: I'm not special, I'm not some unique flower. Like everyone's
17:36
Speaker 3: always going through stuff. But I guess my point is,
17:40
Speaker 3: during the time that I've been an adult, I see
17:43
Speaker 3: these stories about consumers being thrifty all the time. It's always, well,
17:47
Speaker 3: people are trying to make ends me, Like, I don't
17:49
Speaker 3: think that this is anything new that people are trying
17:51
Speaker 3: to like buy in bulk and buy generics and stuff
17:55
Speaker 3: like that. I think the periods where people feel comfortable
17:58
Speaker 3: economically in my adulthood are kind of the outliers.
18:02
Speaker 5: Sure, the COVID timeframe is the only time frame that
18:06
Speaker 5: would come. Yeah, that is an outlier that would contradict
18:08
Speaker 5: that where the savings rate reached the rate that's probably
18:12
Speaker 5: never gonna eclipse again in this country, just because generally
18:16
Speaker 5: speaking this country, everyone spends pretty much everything that comes
18:20
Speaker 5: in their pocket. That's not everybody, but it's a pretty
18:23
Speaker 5: good categorization of the way things go, and they're always
18:27
Speaker 5: trying to get up to that ceiling and looking for
18:30
Speaker 5: ways to cut on costs in certain areas. It's hard
18:34
Speaker 5: to point to a time that there was a ton
18:36
Speaker 5: of surplus spending except for the time where you couldn't
18:38
Speaker 5: do anything on the luxture the travel side.
18:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, but like I wasn't an adult in the nineteen nineties,
18:43
Speaker 3: which from everything I've heard, like the mid to late
18:46
Speaker 3: nineteen nineties were like the best time economically to be
18:49
Speaker 3: alive as as a human. Likewise, was not an adult
18:53
Speaker 3: in the early two thousands where everyone was taking out
18:55
Speaker 3: a mortgage to buy whatever the heck they wanted because
18:57
Speaker 3: home prices only go up was the you know the logic,
19:00
Speaker 3: and obviously that ended very really badly for everyone pretty much.
19:05
Speaker 3: So you know, you see this story about American consumers
19:08
Speaker 3: getting thrifty again. And I think ultimately where I come
19:14
Speaker 3: back to is, look, the last twenty years or so
19:18
Speaker 3: has been Americans needing to get thrifty for a whole
19:21
Speaker 3: bunch of different reasons, and aside from you know, twenty
19:24
Speaker 3: one in parts of twenty two, like, it's kind of
19:27
Speaker 3: just how it's been.
19:28
Speaker 4: Let's take a quick break.
19:29
Speaker 3: We got the Trivia answer next.
19:39
Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day,
19:43
Speaker 1: it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:49
Speaker 1: Time now for Wall Street. Watch a complete look at
19:52
Speaker 1: what's moving market so far today right here on the
19:56
Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:59
Speaker 6: Well after a while week that results in a selloff
20:02
Speaker 6: on Friday driven by the weaker than expected July jobs report,
20:06
Speaker 6: markets today are strongly rebounding.
20:09
Speaker 2: Right now.
20:09
Speaker 6: The doll is up one point one percent or four
20:12
Speaker 6: hundred and eighty seven points, SMP five hundred up one
20:15
Speaker 6: point two percent or seventy four points, NASDAC up one
20:19
Speaker 6: and a half percent or three hundred and twenty four points.
20:22
Speaker 6: Russell two thousand is up one point three percent. Ten
20:25
Speaker 6: year treasure reeled flat at four point two to one
20:27
Speaker 6: six percent, and crude oil down one percent, trading at
20:31
Speaker 6: sixty six dollars in sixty nine cents a barrel after
20:36
Speaker 6: earlier pay deals were shot down by a judge. Tesla's
20:39
Speaker 6: board approved a compensation package for CEO Elon Musk, valued
20:43
Speaker 6: at twenty four billion dollars. Tesla stock today is up
20:48
Speaker 6: by one percent. Meanwhile, Boeing shares it down modestly after
20:54
Speaker 6: the company's defense workers our following news that the defense
20:57
Speaker 6: workers are readying to strike at midnight after rejecting the
21:00
Speaker 6: aerospace maker's latest contract offer. Elsewhere, On Semiconductor met earnings
21:05
Speaker 6: expectations for the previous quarter, while it's a revenue b forecasts. However,
21:10
Speaker 6: it's third quarter guidance disappointed, sending shares down by eleven percent.
21:15
Speaker 6: Now Wayfair stock is up by eleven percent after the
21:19
Speaker 6: furniture retailer handily beat street forecast for the second quarter.
21:24
Speaker 6: Tyson Foods also beat quarterly expectations, sending shares in the
21:28
Speaker 6: meat producer up nearly four percent. Connecticut based in interconnect
21:33
Speaker 6: systems producer and Fanol agreed to a ten and a
21:36
Speaker 6: half billion dollars deal to buy Comscopes, broadband connectivity and
21:40
Speaker 6: cable unit and Fall stock is climbing three percent, while
21:44
Speaker 6: Comscope shares are now surging seventy two percent higher. And
21:48
Speaker 6: after today's closing bell, we'll see second quarter results from
21:52
Speaker 6: Pall Andeer. I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wallstree Watch.
21:56
Speaker 6: And in the previous segment we asked you the trivia
21:59
Speaker 6: question who was the owner of the New Jersey Generals
22:03
Speaker 6: of the USFL That would be Donald Trump. Richard from Quincy,
22:08
Speaker 6: Mass is our winner today, taking home a Financial Exchange
22:11
Speaker 6: Show T shirt. Congrats to Richard, and we play trivia
22:14
Speaker 6: every day here in the Financial Exchange. See complete contest
22:17
Speaker 6: rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
22:20
Speaker 3: Beach in the Wall Street Journal, millennials are richer now,
22:22
Speaker 3: So why can't they stop worrying? How come, Paul, why
22:26
Speaker 3: so worried?
22:26
Speaker 5: Well, I guess you could reference what kind of you
22:28
Speaker 5: were mentioning previously in the other in the segment before
22:32
Speaker 5: the break, where you felt as if the economy had
22:35
Speaker 5: been growing tremendously during your sort of adult life. And
22:40
Speaker 5: also you came to the job market, I believe right
22:42
Speaker 5: as the two two thousand and nine.
22:44
Speaker 4: So certainly that's.
22:46
Speaker 5: A formative experience to have there where that will always
22:49
Speaker 5: be in the backdrop, though, I would mention that I'm
22:54
Speaker 5: sure this applies to every single generation. There always is
22:57
Speaker 5: going to be worries and.
23:00
Speaker 4: Years out there.
23:00
Speaker 5: I'm sure if you pulled many many of the Baby
23:02
Speaker 5: Boomers who are in retirement now perhaps comfortably, that they
23:05
Speaker 5: would have had the same sentiments echoed during their you know,
23:10
Speaker 5: rise through their career.
23:12
Speaker 2: Yeah.
23:12
Speaker 3: Look, I'm a big believer that there's no generation that
23:15
Speaker 3: has a monopoly on the economic pain or anything.
23:20
Speaker 1: Like.
23:20
Speaker 3: Everyone goes through things at different points in their lives
23:24
Speaker 3: and careers where no like, no one gets out unscathed. Like,
23:28
Speaker 3: we all have stuff that we have to deal with.
23:32
Speaker 2: You know.
23:32
Speaker 3: The Boomers great, they you know, got to go to
23:35
Speaker 3: woodstock and then got hit with you know, a whole
23:36
Speaker 3: bunch of inflation for the first ten years that they
23:38
Speaker 3: were working. Everyone looks back now and they're like, oh,
23:41
Speaker 3: like it was so great that they could buy home
23:42
Speaker 3: so cheaply in the late seventies. Yeah, it was except
23:46
Speaker 3: interest rates for twenty percent on a mortgage, So it
23:48
Speaker 3: wasn't exactly that easy for them to do so back then,
23:51
Speaker 3: especially with unemployment being high. Then you get to Gen X,
23:55
Speaker 3: who everyone just forgets about every time that you talk
23:59
Speaker 3: about generations, and it's kind of their own little bird
24:01
Speaker 3: that they have to carry, is that no one mentions them.
24:03
Speaker 3: So they're just happy that we're talking about them on
24:04
Speaker 3: our show right now, Like that's that's you know, their
24:08
Speaker 3: thing kind of uh, you've got you know, obviously the
24:11
Speaker 3: millennials gen z most of them. Hey, they came into
24:15
Speaker 3: the workforce, got hit with a pandemic and then had
24:17
Speaker 3: high inflation for.
24:18
Speaker 2: A couple of years.
24:19
Speaker 3: Like, no one gets out of this unscathed. And so
24:22
Speaker 3: I think the thing that I always have kind of
24:25
Speaker 3: come to, you know, realize with this is just because
24:30
Speaker 3: a generation is showing something statistically at any particular point
24:34
Speaker 3: doesn't mean that's how.
24:35
Speaker 2: It'll be later.
24:35
Speaker 3: Because everyone used to talk about the millennials back in
24:38
Speaker 3: twenty twelve and thirteen and be like, all those.
24:41
Speaker 8: Poor millennials, they're never gonna be able to buy houses.
24:48
Speaker 8: Once your earnings are impacted by an early career recession,
24:52
Speaker 8: they'll never come back up. And now you got people
24:54
Speaker 8: writing about millennials saying, wow, at the same point in
24:57
Speaker 8: their lives, they own, you know, a higher percentage of
25:00
Speaker 8: houses then their parents did, and their portfolios have rebounded.
25:04
Speaker 8: Look at this, all these gen zers are envious of millennials,
25:09
Speaker 8: and it's kind of like, okay, like check out with
25:11
Speaker 8: us maybe in like fifteen years, Like who knows how
25:12
Speaker 8: we're doing them? Like it's this is always evolving. And
25:17
Speaker 8: I do think that psychologically, I do think that you
25:21
Speaker 8: are very much kind of your your your baseline is
25:25
Speaker 8: is always based.
25:26
Speaker 3: On kind of what you went through in your twenties.
25:27
Speaker 3: From an economic perspective, you talk to anyone who grew
25:31
Speaker 3: up in who came of age in the Great Depression
25:35
Speaker 3: that really had they didn't invest in stocks for stick
25:38
Speaker 3: sixty years. Here was just put my money in CDs
25:40
Speaker 3: where it's FDIC insured because I don't want anything to
25:43
Speaker 3: do with this. And you know, like it's it's just you.
25:47
Speaker 3: You're always fighting that same battle because that's the first
25:51
Speaker 3: economy that you you were in. So I think millennials
25:54
Speaker 3: to a certain extent are no different in that respect.
25:58
Speaker 3: I suspect that if we look, you know, twenty years
26:02
Speaker 3: out at gen z, you know, once they're getting to
26:04
Speaker 3: forty or so, you know, again we'll be saying, hey,
26:08
Speaker 3: they've always you know, been big risk takers because inflation
26:12
Speaker 3: ate away their earning power when they were you know,
26:14
Speaker 3: first in the workforce, and so gen Z is you know,
26:18
Speaker 3: bigger risk takers because of that, and housing was so
26:22
Speaker 3: expensive so they needed to yolo to try to make
26:24
Speaker 3: down payments and like that. That could be their defining
26:27
Speaker 3: characteristic for sixty years. So I think that when looking
26:32
Speaker 3: at characterizations of different generations, like yeah, there's no one
26:38
Speaker 3: who has it worse than anyone else. It always bothers
26:41
Speaker 3: me when people are like, well, back in my day,
26:43
Speaker 3: and trust me, I'm getting there in age at this point.
26:46
Speaker 3: But we all have to go through stuff and ultimately
26:52
Speaker 3: no one has a monopoly on things were better in
26:54
Speaker 3: my time or things were worse like they just are.
26:57
Speaker 9: Well, I will say with the world wars, those are
26:59
Speaker 9: tough times economically, economics, okay, sure, yeah, yeah, I still
27:04
Speaker 9: maintain Look, if you wanted to have a kid at
27:07
Speaker 9: any time in human history, there's no better time than
27:09
Speaker 9: right now now.
27:10
Speaker 3: Granted I might be just talking myself up because I
27:12
Speaker 3: have a couple kids and I don't want to you know,
27:13
Speaker 3: ready to go for three Look you no, no, no,
27:17
Speaker 3: we're good in the water's nice.
27:19
Speaker 4: I just look at it and I go.
27:22
Speaker 3: People will be like, oh, well, what about this?
27:24
Speaker 4: What about that?
27:24
Speaker 8: Man?
27:25
Speaker 3: The twentieth century? Have you seen like what happened in
27:29
Speaker 3: the twentieth century?
27:30
Speaker 4: Right right?
27:31
Speaker 3: Yes, you know people are like, oh, like when you
27:32
Speaker 3: want to grow no, like okay, So, yeah, you got
27:35
Speaker 3: World War one, World War two, then you got the
27:37
Speaker 3: Korean War, a whole bunch of inflation. Then you get
27:40
Speaker 3: you know, one president assassinated, then you get a bunch
27:42
Speaker 3: of inflation again, then you get another president attempted to
27:46
Speaker 3: be assassinated, an impeachment, Golf War one, tech bubble popping,
27:50
Speaker 3: Gulf War two, nine to eleven, like it's and those
27:55
Speaker 3: just the big ones. So there's always stuff going on.
27:57
Speaker 3: So like people are like, oh, like, how can you
27:59
Speaker 3: deal with it? With all the there's always stuff going on.
28:02
Speaker 3: There's so much stuff that we don't have to deal
28:04
Speaker 3: with now that we used to, like, oh, I don't know,
28:08
Speaker 3: you know, we actually have medicines that work, and you know,
28:09
Speaker 3: you don't get a little cut and you know, die
28:12
Speaker 3: in your yard because of infection and stuff like that.
28:14
Speaker 3: So sorry, I got way off track here, But the
28:17
Speaker 3: important thing is that the Armstrong Advisory Group has a
28:21
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28:25
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28:27
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28:35
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28:43
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28:46
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28:52
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28:57
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29:00
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29:43
Speaker 3: Tim Cook, after Apple earnings last week, had an all
29:45
Speaker 3: hands meeting where he said, quote, well, it's not really
29:48
Speaker 3: a quote.
29:49
Speaker 2: This is people at the meeting who are reporting this.
29:52
Speaker 3: Apple must do this, Apple will do this. This is
29:54
Speaker 3: ours to grab talking about AI. To this point, it
29:59
Speaker 3: really hasn't been. And I struggle to figure out what
30:04
Speaker 3: to make of this because Apple's AI efforts have been
30:07
Speaker 3: lackluster thus far. But I do think there's like they
30:11
Speaker 3: have an interesting approach that they want to take, which is, look,
30:15
Speaker 3: we don't want to spend a bunch of money on
30:18
Speaker 3: data centers and stuff like that. Instead, we want to
30:20
Speaker 3: leverage what's called edge AI, which is basically on device
30:23
Speaker 3: AI capability.
30:25
Speaker 2: But to this.
30:26
Speaker 3: Point, it's kind of a problem in search of a
30:30
Speaker 3: solution in search of a problem, in that I just
30:34
Speaker 3: don't know what the average person, aside from like needing
30:38
Speaker 3: to search for stuff like in a search engine sense,
30:42
Speaker 3: what does the average person need generative AI for on a.
30:45
Speaker 4: Daily basis, just for regular use?
30:49
Speaker 3: Like they tried these AI news summaries, and it's kind
30:51
Speaker 3: of like, why do I why do I need that?
30:54
Speaker 3: Now you're making it so that I'm reading the piece
30:55
Speaker 3: even less and your AI summaries are wrong.
30:58
Speaker 5: Right, So to me, it's with Apple. I know they
31:03
Speaker 5: make this point here that they were late to the
31:05
Speaker 5: game on PCs and the smartphone market, and obviously that
31:08
Speaker 5: worked out well for them, same thing with tablets. But
31:11
Speaker 5: I mean, we're coming up on three years since CHATCHIBT
31:14
Speaker 5: was relief. I believe it was November of twenty twenty two,
31:16
Speaker 5: and Apple has done basically nothing on the AI front.
31:20
Speaker 5: I'm sure that there's some arguments can be made that
31:23
Speaker 5: they've kind of dipped their toes in the water, but
31:26
Speaker 5: ultimately it's kind of I laugh a little bit just
31:30
Speaker 5: to hear them say, Okay, now we're in on it.
31:32
Speaker 5: It's like, hey, it's two or three years in here.
31:35
Speaker 5: That's not to say that they couldn't still they have
31:37
Speaker 5: a tremendous platform to leverage, but it's an area where
31:41
Speaker 5: it's just been unclear what their strategy is. They probably
31:45
Speaker 5: are also releasing this I would think Chuck as sort
31:50
Speaker 5: of wetting the or meeting the demand from the investment
31:54
Speaker 5: community to hear that they're actually focused on AI. I
31:56
Speaker 5: feel like this is kind of a shareholder play too,
31:59
Speaker 5: where they just want to make sure it's a priority
32:01
Speaker 5: because every single earnings call recently, that's what everyone's been
32:04
Speaker 5: looking for on the investment community side of things.
32:06
Speaker 3: I just don't know what they want to do with it, right,
32:09
Speaker 3: That's that's not they do either, you know, like why
32:11
Speaker 3: do I.
32:12
Speaker 8: Need AI news headlines?
32:14
Speaker 3: Or you know, I don't know, it's why do I
32:17
Speaker 3: need AI summaries of text messages? Like our text messages
32:21
Speaker 3: short enough that I can read them hopefully, you know,
32:24
Speaker 3: unless you get that, unless you get it from that
32:26
Speaker 3: one relative who sends you the wall of text and
32:29
Speaker 3: you're like.
32:31
Speaker 2: This group text.
32:33
Speaker 6: You know, you ever open your phone and there's like
32:34
Speaker 6: seventy eight messages in a group text or something like,
32:37
Speaker 6: oh Jesus true, I gotta sift through this.
32:39
Speaker 3: Okay, So let's just let's just not talk to our
32:42
Speaker 3: friends an yeah, just you know, our ais take it
32:45
Speaker 3: to each other, everybody, and we're just gonna call it
32:47
Speaker 3: a day. I guess why even be human. You know,
32:51
Speaker 3: let's take a quick break. When we come back.
32:53
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33:01
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33:35
Speaker 3: All right, Paul's do a little bit of stack rud.
33:37
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the lead here.
33:38
Speaker 4: If that's cool, go for it.
33:40
Speaker 3: Piece in the Wall Street Journal the generation is turning
33:44
Speaker 3: to buy now, pay later for botox and concert tickets.
33:47
Speaker 3: Subheader Young Americans attorney to easy, high interest loan products.
33:50
Speaker 3: Research shows some are spending more. Paul, nature is healing.
33:56
Speaker 3: There's one thing Americans love to do. It's find new
33:59
Speaker 3: ways to borrow money and fun ways to spend it
34:01
Speaker 3: that don't reflect economic reality. This isn't good, But again,
34:06
Speaker 3: it feels like this is trying to make out. Gen
34:07
Speaker 3: Z is like this group of kids that just oh,
34:11
Speaker 3: they don't get it, and it gets said about every generation.
34:14
Speaker 3: No one gets in their twenties like you always spend
34:16
Speaker 3: a dumb amount of money on dumb stuff in your twenties.
34:19
Speaker 5: No, they had to step in with the credit cards
34:22
Speaker 5: that were just being mailed out to people. The I
34:25
Speaker 5: think it was the CPFB had to step in and
34:27
Speaker 5: basically make that no longer a practice where you could
34:30
Speaker 5: just mail an eighteen year old in college a credit
34:33
Speaker 5: card and let them go wild. The same thing applies here.
34:36
Speaker 5: I've never really understood the appeal to investing in companies
34:41
Speaker 5: like a firm or Klina, because to me, it's just
34:43
Speaker 5: another way to spin layaway or all these other programs
34:47
Speaker 5: that have been around historically for years. This idea Klarna
34:52
Speaker 5: and a firm are. They're all about by now pay later.
34:55
Speaker 5: It's the same simple, same, the same song and dance
34:59
Speaker 5: where you, you know, let them buy something, maybe a
35:02
Speaker 5: younger consumer, and all of a sudden they're hit with
35:05
Speaker 5: an interest rate of thirty percent because they're unable to
35:07
Speaker 5: pay back in time this specific item that they may
35:11
Speaker 5: have purchased, whether it's a concert or furniture or botox, whatever.
35:15
Speaker 4: The case may be.
35:17
Speaker 5: To me, it's it is really just something that it's
35:22
Speaker 5: it's always going to be a factor out there. The
35:24
Speaker 5: interesting thing on the credit score piece of things is
35:27
Speaker 5: that I believe as soon as this fall, they are
35:30
Speaker 5: now going to incorporate the big credit major caredit bureaus,
35:33
Speaker 5: these buy now, pay later loans as a way to
35:37
Speaker 5: make sure that they're being captured within your credit store,
35:39
Speaker 5: because typically they are not categorized there. If you look
35:42
Speaker 5: at the outstanding credit that you have for your own
35:45
Speaker 5: personal self, if you have a buy now, paylert loan,
35:47
Speaker 5: it will not show there. They're now debuting a score
35:50
Speaker 5: that would capture that debt out there. It's it's been argued,
35:54
Speaker 5: you know, whether or not that is debt because it's
35:56
Speaker 5: something that is theoretically going to be paid off later.
35:59
Speaker 5: But they're now trying to account for that on this.
36:01
Speaker 2: End of things.
36:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, so this I think. Look, I'm not saying this
36:04
Speaker 3: is good. I'm just saying a lot of times we
36:06
Speaker 3: see different ways that debt manifest itself amongst people in
36:09
Speaker 3: their twenties.
36:10
Speaker 2: This is just a new wrapper on it.
36:12
Speaker 3: And we've seen prior generations that have unfortunately made these
36:15
Speaker 3: same mistakes and have to figure out how to get
36:17
Speaker 3: themselves out of some tough times.
36:18
Speaker 5: Then Delta is getting blowback for using AI to set
36:22
Speaker 5: its airfares. They are boasting Delta. This is about a
36:27
Speaker 5: new super analyst that could work around the clock and
36:31
Speaker 5: process massive amounts of data to help maximize revenue, and
36:34
Speaker 5: it is AI. The concern with this is that AI
36:39
Speaker 5: could utilize personal data. For example, if you just got
36:43
Speaker 5: a big bonus or we're sitting flushed with cash, maybe
36:47
Speaker 5: there is some incentive there for AI to use that
36:51
Speaker 5: browser history and personal information to jack up fairs. That
36:54
Speaker 5: led me down the rabbit hole of I thought that
36:56
Speaker 5: the browser history thing was already a thing in place
36:59
Speaker 5: that airlines did, that they were able to track searching
37:03
Speaker 5: within the cookies on your computer and things like that.
37:06
Speaker 5: But it was a surprise to me that there are
37:09
Speaker 5: pricing analysts Chuck that still work on monitoring dozens of
37:12
Speaker 5: routes for airlines out there to set pricing. It does
37:15
Speaker 5: seem like to me that this would be a very
37:17
Speaker 5: natural evolution to trend to. I'm not saying I agree
37:20
Speaker 5: with it, because I think it could lead to some
37:22
Speaker 5: price gouging on areas where there was tremendous demand, But
37:28
Speaker 5: something that seems like it would be a very easy
37:30
Speaker 5: way for the airlines to cut costs and allow for
37:33
Speaker 5: the use of this technology to run twenty four to seven.
37:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, I this to me feels like
37:39
Speaker 3: we covered the story last week about the grocery stores
37:42
Speaker 3: that are putting the electronics signage in so that they
37:45
Speaker 3: can change prices on demand. It's just another variation of, Hey,
37:49
Speaker 3: we're not improving the product, We're just finding a way
37:51
Speaker 3: to maximize revenue of that product more, which doesn't make
37:54
Speaker 3: me feel good because it's kind of like you're not
37:57
Speaker 3: giving me a better seat on the plane. You're just
37:58
Speaker 3: figuring out a way to charge us more in the
38:00
Speaker 3: aggregate from that perspective, but ultimately, it's my decision whether
38:05
Speaker 3: I'm gonna buy the seat or not, and so if
38:08
Speaker 3: I don't like the price, I'm not gonna buy it.
38:11
Speaker 4: Let's take a.
38:11
Speaker 3: Quick break for the entire rest of the day. Stocks
38:13
Speaker 3: remain broadly up, and we will see you tomorrow.