Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Twitter Limits & NFL Win Totals: NFC Edition

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Twitter Limits & NFL Win Totals: NFC Edition · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings.
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: The crown is yours. We are an Action Network podcast.
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: I'm your host, Brandon Kravitz.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Back at it with the first Lady of the pod,
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Kendri Middleton, the Prime Minister of Dgen Nations. Stucky is back,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: and the man who puts the prime in primer, Evan
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Abrams is here.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: We are fully loaded. On a Tuesday.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: We're getting in the Western Conference Finals matchup that we
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: all wanted all NBA season. We had a Stanley Cup
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: playoff Game seven that just wrapped up.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Great time to do what we do.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about NFL specifically NFC win totals today
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: in AFC preview on Thursday, as we start getting in
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: some work and placing some debts before we get into
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: the summer months.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Kendra, before we get to any of them.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Well, first of all, let me let me not bury
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: the lead here. Stucky hasn't been on in weeks. He
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: has dealt with a family tragedy. Well he's back with us.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Our brother has returned, Stucky.
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: How you live it.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Good? I been updating NFL stuff and then also dealing
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: with all like the estate stuff for my dad, which
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: is just an incredible amount of paperwork and phone calls
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: and so. But my my dad was like my biggest fan,
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: always followed my bets was all in on me leaving
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: my entire career, which was a lot. Allow him to
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: thank for a lot of it before I left to
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: uh for to start action, and he followed along all
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: the time. He would be if he could talk to
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: me now, he would say, look at least I went
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: in May, so I do I do thank you for that.
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: And this wasn't in March or or during football.
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: Uh.
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's we're it's a it's a quiet time right
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: now in the NFL. But that will ramp up as
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: soon as June one hits here, and the big news
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: that everyone is assuming will occurs, you know, the A. J.
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: Brown trade. But we'll get some more news uh and
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: and moves after June one. And yeah, I'm excited. There's
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: what one hundred and we're probably like one hundred and
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: twenty ish days until the NFL season. So yeah, I
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: went seventeen weeks. Yeah, first round. I did my first
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: round of updates last night on the NFC And yeah,
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: I'm also just trying to spend time, refining processes, UH,
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: figuring out how you know, I can use a to
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: streamline things and make things make my life easier with
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: some of the stuff that I do. So that's this
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: is usually the time of the year that I do
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: do that. So but excited to talk NFL, excited to
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: talk about your your falcons and if.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: You're I'm a little puzzled by their women total. So
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: definitely gonna get into that. But our heart has been
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: with you the whole time. Awful what you've had to
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: go through, and for anybody that's been through any sort
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: of big loss, that first step back into work is
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: very difficult. So we we understand that this is this
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: is sort of a weird moment for you and UH and.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: It's UH, it's tough.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: It's tough to especially in the content world, to have
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: that first show back as you've been dealing with all
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: of this real life stuff. Uh, not an easy thing
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: to do. One thing that will make it easier, though,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: are the ridiculous things that are on Kendri Middleton mine.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: What would that be today?
• 4:06
  Speaker 5: But I gave you guys plenty of options, and I
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: think that we've picked the safest, most PG option that
• 4:19
  Speaker 5: we could.
• 4:20
  Speaker 6: However, I'm pretty pissed off about this, and I think
• 4:23
  Speaker 6: a lot of people are as well. Twitter because I
• 4:26
  Speaker 6: refuse to call it its stripper name, is limiting people
• 4:29
  Speaker 6: on what they are going to be able to do
• 4:31
  Speaker 6: on the app soon. So if you don't pay for
• 4:34
  Speaker 6: Twitter Blue, you are going to be limited to fifty
• 4:37
  Speaker 6: posts per day, two hundred replies per day, two hundred
• 4:41
  Speaker 6: reposts per day, five hundred direct messages sent per day,
• 4:45
  Speaker 6: which like, that's absurd, and then four email changes per hour,
• 4:50
  Speaker 6: and then once an account is following five thousand other accounts,
• 4:54
  Speaker 6: additional follow attempts are limited to are limited by account
• 4:58
  Speaker 6: specific ratios. My big thing about this during football season,
• 5:04
  Speaker 6: everyone on this show, except for Evan probably gets pretty
• 5:08
  Speaker 6: close every single Saturday and Sunday to those fifty posts
• 5:11
  Speaker 6: we I think are all verified here. But if you're
• 5:14
  Speaker 6: just like the average football fan who has, like, you know,
• 5:16
  Speaker 6: a decent sized account live tweeting during like whatever sport
• 5:19
  Speaker 6: you follow, that is not a lot of posts at all.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: I think we should I'm I'm actually with Elon on this.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: I'm saying that, but I think that we should all
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: be more judicious with the things and thoughts that we share,
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: and fifty still allows you to be quite verbose in
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: your opinions throughout the course of a day or even
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: an NFL Sunday.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: But putting I think in life in general.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: If I had like a general life theory, putting everything
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: you do through a more strict filter is a good idea.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: So I'm not a I'm not a post. This isn't
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: like restricting free speech and the two hundred replies. If
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: you are commenting on two hundred posts or sharing two
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: hundred comments throughout the course of the day, you need
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: to get a life and not worry about what Elon
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Musk is putting into his platform.
• 6:14
  Speaker 6: You're like the meme of the like don't tread on me, snake,
• 6:18
  Speaker 6: but with the ballgag in its mouth.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: I don't want to be related to any of them.
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: Tell me why I'm wrong.
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: I mean, there there are times where I would hit
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: this easily on like a college football or college basketball
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: SAT or NFL Sunday.
• 6:39
  Speaker 6: Starting in the morning and ending at night.
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: For you, yeah, you hit the ship by halftime of
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: the noon game.
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: This could be a single game, Yeah, especially if there's
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: some lubrication involved. Some lubricants I should say lubrication. The yeah, so,
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: I mean the lies, the yeah. I agree that that's
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: a big number, but I yeah so, I mean I
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: guess what are we asking? Are we against it?
• 7:11
  Speaker 7: No?
• 7:11
  Speaker 6: Just like are people rightfully freaking out and annoyed? Like
• 7:14
  Speaker 6: mostly sports Twitter for obvious reasons because on a game day,
• 7:18
  Speaker 6: like people get like a lot of people get pretty
• 7:20
  Speaker 6: probably pretty close to that number. Like the other things
• 7:22
  Speaker 6: I feel like don't really affect the general public that
• 7:25
  Speaker 6: much except for the following stuff, Like that's kind of insane.
• 7:28
  Speaker 6: I guess it kind of limits some of these like
• 7:30
  Speaker 6: big NFL guys who you click on their profile and
• 7:33
  Speaker 6: it's like they follow one hundred and fifty thousand people
• 7:36
  Speaker 6: and they have like a half a million followers. But
• 7:38
  Speaker 6: like it's it's more so the posting number that I.
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: Think my biggest question is what is the I I
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: get when people used to have like there used to
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: be tweet deck, which isn't around anymore. But these people
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: that follow like one hundred thousand people, how like how
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: do you met? What? What does your timeline look like?
• 8:02
  Speaker 7: They're definitely looking at just lists or lists like yeah,
• 8:05
  Speaker 7: you create a list that has like X number of
• 8:07
  Speaker 7: people on it and you're just following as a you know,
• 8:10
  Speaker 7: parameter of your account, let's call it.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: That is so overwhelming and insane to me, like to
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: see some of the like these big accounts that followed
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: just like everybody. But then you have some accounts to
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: just follow everybody back. But I guess there relying on lists.
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: But uh yeah, I and it won't affect me, but
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: I can see how the the actual number of posts, uh,
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: for some people could help.
• 8:37
  Speaker 6: A lot of people are deleting Twitter, like people are pissed.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but here's the thing they've they've tried this whole Well,
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: let's go to blue Sky, Let's go to thread.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: Nothing else is popping off. So I do want to
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: be which one is threads?
• 8:51
  Speaker 7: Sorry?
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: I just went through people threads starting? Is that?
• 8:56
  Speaker 6: Yeah you should.
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, It's just.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Like I feel like the limit, the limit has to
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: be three. I can't be active on more than.
• 9:04
  Speaker 7: I mean, people are cheap. This could kill the conversation
• 9:07
  Speaker 7: if you're taking a large part of the audience away,
• 9:10
  Speaker 7: which I don't know, you know less and gable.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Well, so think about this, like like the trend's articles
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: that you throw out there, like what's the percentage of
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: people that are that are slamming fifty tweets a day.
• 9:20
  Speaker 7: I mean there's a lot, but there's a lot of
• 9:21
  Speaker 7: people who won't pay. Obviously, people don't want to pay
• 9:24
  Speaker 7: for anything. Well, listen, I didn't. I thought this article
• 9:27
  Speaker 7: was fake when I when I quickly was scrolling by
• 9:29
  Speaker 7: in the morning, Kendrick tells me it's real. And then
• 9:31
  Speaker 7: she starts reading off these numbers to me, and I'm
• 9:34
  Speaker 7: hearing them from the first time, and to be honest,
• 9:36
  Speaker 7: as I'm hearing each of these numbers, they feel higher
• 9:38
  Speaker 7: than maybe they should be. But I'm also a person
• 9:40
  Speaker 7: who doesn't tend to post a ton and losing the
• 9:44
  Speaker 7: live sport, live conversation I think could be a killer
• 9:48
  Speaker 7: for the platform, because that's what really makes it the best.
• 9:50
  Speaker 7: Uh So, I guess we'll see.
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: Keep in mind, we're we're like in content. We tweet
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: like ten to I think I before I've seen ten
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: percent of all Twitter users are responsible for five percent
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: of tweets. So sure there's a large silent minority that
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: are just replying here and there, that are just there
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: to see what people are saying. So I don't think
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: it's good. I don't think it's good.
• 10:20
  Speaker 6: I have to bully Evan into following me back on Twitter.
• 10:24
  Speaker 7: I just don't check it. You're great, You're a great
• 10:26
  Speaker 7: follow Don't worry, Hendrew.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: You know what this is just I think ultimately it's
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: a stuck East Point. Bad day for the trolls out there,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: bad day to be a troll. NFL wind totals have
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: been out for months now. The Draft is in the
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: rear view, free agency is in the rear view, the
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: schedule release is over and done with. I feel like
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: now is a really good time to get cozy with
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: these wind total numbers. Doesn't mean you need to go
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: run and bet them right now, but I think to
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: at least familiarize yourself with them as an NFL better
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: is an important thing to do. So we're gonna start
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: with the panel. Is there an NFC win total bet
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: that you have already legitimately made, Kendra, Yes.
• 11:08
  Speaker 6: I have the two that I gave out last week
• 11:11
  Speaker 6: and the one that I've I've been giving out the
• 11:13
  Speaker 6: Giants forever, so I've already got the over on the
• 11:15
  Speaker 6: Giants and I took the under on the Rams. I
• 11:18
  Speaker 6: am so heavy on both of those. I walked them
• 11:20
  Speaker 6: into the action app. I've we're here, We're live, we
• 11:24
  Speaker 6: are live, Evan.
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: What about you?
• 11:28
  Speaker 7: I touched that Arizona one we talked about before. We'll
• 11:31
  Speaker 7: talk about really low win totals on the show today,
• 11:33
  Speaker 7: which is just kind of funny stat that kind of
• 11:35
  Speaker 7: goes with the Arizona play. And I have another NFC
• 11:38
  Speaker 7: West one I like today. I just think that division's
• 11:41
  Speaker 7: a little bit raw for some unders, so all that
• 11:43
  Speaker 7: direction big time.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: We had three teams in double digits in terms of
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: wins last year. It's gonna be really tough to repeat
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: that on the Giants. Note that's one I completely agree
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: with in theory, but I have not agreed with with
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: my wallet yet. I just cannot get there. It feels
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: like they're the all hype team. But I felt that
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: way about the Patriots last year going into the season,
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: and it turns out that paid off for a lot
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: of a lot of folks. Stuck you a little about you.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Have you placed an NFC win total wager?
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: Yet?
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: No?
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: Not yet. I mean I updated all of my numbers
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: last night, all the schedules, and then all of my
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: power ratings. Five total popped on like what I would
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: bet if I was finished but all of my work.
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: But I'm like, I don't know eight percent finished all
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: of my off season work. But the ones, funny enough,
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: one of them numbers wise, Giants under was one that
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: I should value in. But and Falcons over. Actually it's
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: interesting to.
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: Me come to the dark side.
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: Well, we'll talk falcons a bit later. But I could see,
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: you know, you mentioned the NFCUS. I could see the.
• 12:59
  Speaker 7: Ivan.
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: I'm sure you're going to share these the trends on
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: low win totals, but I could see the Cardinals over,
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: you know, and also maybe the forty nine ers to
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: win that division. You keep in mind because I think
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: that the the Rams who have power at a number one.
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: But the Rams are what I think plus one thirty
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: ish to win the division. Then you have the Seahawks
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: are like plus one sixty plus one seventy. I'm just
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: going off the top of my head. And then I
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: think the forty nine ers are plus three twenty some
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: are in that ballpark depending on where you look. What
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: are on DraftKings? What is the division odds for the
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: NFC West updated?
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Let's see the NFC West plus one forty five on
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: the Rams plus one sixty on the Seahawks plus two
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: sixty on the forty nine Ers.
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so the keep in mind last year and you
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: don't want to anchor as it's easy to be like, oh,
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: the Rams and the Seahawks were are going to be
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: so good again, and then very well might be there.
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: There are two of the better teams in the in
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: the league, but they were two of along with the Patriots,
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: were the three healthiest teams in the NFL last year,
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: and that goes a long way every single season, and
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: the determining who has who exceeds expectations and who doesn't,
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: you know, just pure blind injury luck, and the Seahawks
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: and Rams were extremely healthy all year. Meanwhile, two of
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: the unluckiest teams in terms of injuries were the forty
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: nine Ers, who almost every year or on the unlucky
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: list outside of like one over the past six years.
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: We could talk about the substation or whatever, but you
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: have two of the unluckiest, the Cardinals and the forty
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: nine Ers, and two of the luckiest all in the
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: same division. So there could be some potential injury regression
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: both ways that could benefit Arizona and or San Francisco
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: and the Cardinals' roster I think is better than It's
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: not great, but it's better than I think people are
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: giving them credit to. I mean, keep in mind, this
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: is a team what they started out two and o
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: last year and then lost in ways you couldn't even imagine,
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: like they usually could have been five to oh out
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: of the gates, and I mean you go back to
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: the game where they fumbled into the end zone, the
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: forty nine ers game. They lost some insane games by
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: three or fewer points, and then all of a sudden,
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: it was an injury avalanche where they I mean every
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: week their injury report was this song, and then you
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: had weeks where the Seahawks wouldn't have anyone on their
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: injury report that matters. So that probably we're likely not
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: to see that repeat both ways again this year. But
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: the Cardinals they have, you know, they've been built, adding
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: some good young pieces on that defense, and if they
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: can stay healthier, this is a team that people forget
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: was very competitive early last year until all those injuries hit.
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I do show a little bit of value
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: on that over I don't hate that play, Evan. With that,
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: their win total is sitting at around like a four
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: point one, so I don't mind that over at all.
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: And San Francisco this is still a very solid roster
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: can if they stay healthy, they can certainly make a
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: run at this division.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: I have not placed an NFC win total bit yet.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: I have two in the app. Both are on the
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: AFC side. I'll dig into those on the Thursday episode.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: But I think, gun to my head right now, i'd
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: be on the opposite end of that San Francisco forty
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: nine ers bet.
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: I worry a little.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: Bit about regression hitting them hard in a division that is.
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah that I mean, that's a concern, But we'll get
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: to that.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: We're gonna plant the flag on an NFC bet coming
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: up later on in the episode. First to look at
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: the heavy hitters. An interesting trend from Evans Win Total Primer.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: Since nineteen ninety there have been about five point nine
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: teams with double digit win totals per season. Since nineteen ninety,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: eighty six of the two hundred and twelve teams with
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: double digit win totals over the last thirty six years
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: have exceeded their number. That's forty two point six percent.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: And what's even more alarming is that they're going under
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: by close to point six to one wins per season. Evan,
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: what is there to learn from this? Why have the
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: percentages remained steady even with since twenty two you're going
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: back to nineteen ninety. Since twenty twenty one, we added
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: a game to the schedule, and yet the percentages seem
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: like they're pretty pretty even.
• 18:07
  Speaker 7: Yeah, to be clear as well, since we added the
• 18:09
  Speaker 7: extra game, you average now about nine double digit win
• 18:13
  Speaker 7: total teams per season, so we've gone out, we've gone
• 18:16
  Speaker 7: up about three if you look at the average since
• 18:19
  Speaker 7: nineteen ninety and even in the seventeen game era, these
• 18:23
  Speaker 7: double digit win totals are nineteen and twenty five to
• 18:26
  Speaker 7: the over, so you know, forty three percent not fantastic.
• 18:30
  Speaker 7: Difference between the team is about a third of a
• 18:33
  Speaker 7: win per team in terms of the difference between the
• 18:36
  Speaker 7: win total and their wins per season. So I mean
• 18:38
  Speaker 7: in terms of why, I mean, I think depending on
• 18:41
  Speaker 7: the year, Like if you look at all the win
• 18:42
  Speaker 7: totals right now at a few different books, they usually
• 18:44
  Speaker 7: add up to more wins than there are in the NFL,
• 18:47
  Speaker 7: which is something like you know why unders tend to
• 18:49
  Speaker 7: be valuable in the win total game. I also think,
• 18:52
  Speaker 7: you know, last year was an outlier, insane. We had
• 18:55
  Speaker 7: seven double digit win totals. Last year they went one
• 18:57
  Speaker 7: in six to the over in terms of where they
• 19:00
  Speaker 7: closed on for double digit win totals. So this year
• 19:04
  Speaker 7: might be a tad different when we have ten teams
• 19:06
  Speaker 7: right now falling in that category. But I'll talk about
• 19:09
  Speaker 7: again in a second. I think there's different factors in
• 19:12
  Speaker 7: terms of these big win totals. In terms of why,
• 19:15
  Speaker 7: like Stuck mentioned injuries, I think rest is another interesting factor.
• 19:20
  Speaker 7: And the other thing is I looked at consistency, which
• 19:23
  Speaker 7: I think is kind of interesting. Teams who are in
• 19:26
  Speaker 7: their first year with a double digit win total have
• 19:29
  Speaker 7: tended to struggle. Win teams have consecutive years of expectations
• 19:34
  Speaker 7: tend to do better in terms of going over which
• 19:37
  Speaker 7: I thought was kind of interesting over time. So we
• 19:38
  Speaker 7: have like the Rams, the Seahawks, and the Chargers in
• 19:42
  Speaker 7: their first year with a double digit win total, all
• 19:45
  Speaker 7: at the eight and a half nine and a half
• 19:47
  Speaker 7: last year.
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: So spertrifically.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: Those are the teams that you're looking at potentially fading.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: The ones that exceeded expectation the year before were not
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: double digit win total teams going into the season a
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: year ago they are now for the first time.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: Within a two year span. Those are the teams that
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: are falling short.
• 20:07
  Speaker 7: I think that's a starting point. I think there's a
• 20:09
  Speaker 7: number of different factors. But I think looking at teams who,
• 20:12
  Speaker 7: especially with the injury bug not you know, being cleaned
• 20:15
  Speaker 7: throughout the season, going over your win total, exceeding expectations,
• 20:19
  Speaker 7: and then having those expectations, you know, in some places,
• 20:22
  Speaker 7: an extra win, an extra win and a half the
• 20:23
  Speaker 7: year after tend to go under. And I think that's
• 20:26
  Speaker 7: part of that percentage when you look at you know,
• 20:28
  Speaker 7: the unders throughout time.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so there's a little bit of a natural tax
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: on overs and then yeah, the better of the team.
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: I think historically that that tax has been a little
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: higher for the you know, the teams that are perceived
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: to be good. Most people are betting their overs. But
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: there's just natural regression that comes to teams. In the NFL,
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: which has historically been a parody driven league. We already
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: mentioned injuries, but close game luck, right, A lot of
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: teams that win twelve, thirteen to fourteen games most likely
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: they were fortunate in close games. That's hard to duplicate
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: in a year to your basis. Same with injury luck.
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: I mean, look at the Seahawks, very good, the injury
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: department very good in one score games, and then you
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: know there's turnover luck that will have that a's a
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: large say in the outcome of games. Hard to duplicate
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: in a year to your basis. Defense Also, as much
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: as you might say, like I know this defense is
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: going to be dominant, we've seen time and time again
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: that it is very hard to predict and there's regret,
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: just natural regression when it comes to defenses. Offenses are
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: much stickier and more consistent and easier to predict, which
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: might be another notch against the Seahawks, who are a
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: defense driven defense first team. So there's a number of
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: reasons why I think those tend to go under more
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: than they go over. Now I wouldn't just blindly bet them.
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: I would Everything, at least to me, is on a
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: case by case basis, But I think in general it
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: makes sense why those teams have gone under more times
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: than not.
• 22:13
  Speaker 6: I would be curious to see if there's any correlation
• 22:16
  Speaker 6: between that info and kind of how many games some
• 22:20
  Speaker 6: of these teams played into the postseason the year prior,
• 22:24
  Speaker 6: because I feel like something we've noticed over the last
• 22:26
  Speaker 6: couple of years is kind of that like super Bowl
• 22:28
  Speaker 6: hangover some of these teams that have played so deep
• 22:31
  Speaker 6: into the postseason, especially after the added game, Like look
• 22:33
  Speaker 6: at the Chiefs, look at the Eagles, they really kind
• 22:36
  Speaker 6: of have had that just second slap in the face.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: I would think that goes in line with the injury
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: luck theory that if you had good if you have
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: good injury luck, chances are and you're good, you're gonna
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: make it further than your competition in the playoffs. And
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: then that's the sort of thing that it's just hard
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: to replicate that. It's one of the reasons why for
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: the forty nine ers, I know they dealt with a
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: lot of injuries, but one key component that was healthy
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: last year was Christian McCaffrey. Yeah, Christian McCaffrey is a
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: hard time putting together back to back healthy seasons, and
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: he is the key cog to that offense. Their offense
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: was elite last year. If he drops off, if he
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: gets hurt, I don't think they're going to be the same.
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: And if we're looking at okay.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: So the teams that have double digit win totals right
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: now entering the season. Eagles ten and a half juice
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: to the under, Packers ten and a half juice to
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: the under, the Lions at ten and a half, a
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: standard minus one ten. These are all per DraftKings Rams
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: ten and a half juice to the over. They're catching
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: more hype than anybody else going into the season. Seahawks
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: ten and a half juice to the over they just
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: won the Super Bowl, and the aforementioned forty nine Ers
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: ten and a half juiced to the under. If we're
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: trying to if we're saying a couple of these teams
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: are definitely falling short. To me, forty nine ers are
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: absolutely on that list. I think the Eagles potentially would
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: be towards the top of my they're gonna fall below
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: ten and a half ranking the Packers. Kendrew, Who are
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: some teams among that list? Is there a team or
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: two that you look at and you're like, no way,
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: and not buy into that as far as them exceeding expectation.
• 24:23
  Speaker 6: Honestly, I'm really low on a lot of I'm really
• 24:26
  Speaker 6: low on the Packers. I gotta be honest, I don't
• 24:29
  Speaker 6: know what it is but I'm very low on the Packers.
• 24:31
  Speaker 6: I think we talked about it when we did our
• 24:32
  Speaker 6: NFC episode the other day. I just I'm not a
• 24:35
  Speaker 6: Jordan Love believer.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Micah Parsons also coming back from injury. They won nine
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: games last year, so they fell short of ten and
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: a half. A year ago, they lost their last four.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: Parsons got hurt in Week fifteen. They didn't win again
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: after that. He could be ready for the start of
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: the year. Stuckey, have you seen anything on Michael Parsons
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: and when any sort of confidence you having Green Bay
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: going in the next season, I would think has to
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: be tied to how healthy you think Parsons is at
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: the start of the year.
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I haven't seen anything specific. Let's see that. I
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: just would see if anything came out today. I don't
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: think so. I mean, he's just expected to be back
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: early in the season. But yeah, that'll certainly have an
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: impact depending on the timing of when he does return.
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: I mean, I was super high on the Packers last year,
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: and I do like the hire of Gannon. I think
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: he can be a really good defensive coordinator. I think
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: he does some really sharp stuff. That's the other thing
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: with the Cardinals. By the way, they still have a
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: really good defensive coordinator from last year. And yeah, I
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: mean this is a team they just injuries hit them
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: at the end of the year kind of fell apart.
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: I still think they're forced to be reckoned with in
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: the NFL. See a team that a team that I
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: it's scary to do because I have empowered at number
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: one would potentially be the Rams. Right, Like we talked
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: about the injury luck, I think that's it is probably
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: more important to the Rams than any other team in
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: the league. And the reason I say that, and they
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: were one of the healthiest teams last year. But the
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: Rams do not have great depth at a number of positions.
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: I mean, go through their depth chart and then just say, okay,
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: if this guy get hurt, you can look at any position.
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: And they've had to they've hit on the draft recently
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: and they were able to kind of make it work.
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: Credit to Less Sneid and company there, But last year
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: they were extremely healthy. If they get hit by injuries
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: at all, there's steep drop offs at a number of
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: positions that are more drafts then I think other teams,
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: and that's obviously going to be a very competitive division.
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: So again, with Stafford's age, I mean, it's it's not
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: like he's he's not getting any younger, So the chances
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: of him having to deal with an injury at some.
• 27:21
  Speaker 6: Point, that's what I want to talk about. Yeah, that's
• 27:25
  Speaker 6: what I want to talk about. Is because I gave
• 27:27
  Speaker 6: this out last week when we did our show, I
• 27:28
  Speaker 6: talked about it off the top here. It's not just
• 27:30
  Speaker 6: that Stafford's old and injured, but there's also a lot
• 27:33
  Speaker 6: of trouble in Paradise with these teams, all this stuff
• 27:36
  Speaker 6: that's going on with Pooka Nakua, the fact that they
• 27:40
  Speaker 6: seem still so pissed about the Ty Simpson debacle that happened.
• 27:45
  Speaker 6: They could have added somebody else to that roster and
• 27:47
  Speaker 6: Super Bowl ready roster to help them right now stuck, Like,
• 27:51
  Speaker 6: do you think that it's not just the fact that
• 27:53
  Speaker 6: Stafford's old, but there's there's a lot it seems like
• 27:56
  Speaker 6: there is tension between coaching and this To me, it.
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: Could be I don't know. That's to me too early
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: to tell, and those those things are always very difficult
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: to read into. But I did vehemently disagree with the
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: drafting of Ty Simpson for a number of reasons where
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: they did it, how they did it, the fact of
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: where their roster is and how close they are, and
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: there's a number of Now Simpson ends up being the guy,
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: but when is Simpson going to be the guy? Like
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: if I don't think he's ready now. So, like you know,
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: if Stafford goes down, it's like, is Simpson going to
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: lead you to a super Bowl this year? No? I
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: think it absolutely not. So like if Stafford sets.
• 28:43
  Speaker 6: It right, it would Benett, but potentially, I don't.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know that that's a disaster if Simpson can't
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: even win the backup job.
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: But the two years, so like if Stafford does stay healthy,
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: he's going to be here for two more years, and
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: then what Simpson then is starting as a rookie and
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: three years from now and he's only started one year
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: in college. I mean you're talking like he'd have one
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: year of starts over like a six year period. So
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: I don't know. We'll see how that that plays out.
• 29:13
  Speaker 6: But there was a second interview with McVeigh talking crap
• 29:17
  Speaker 6: about that pick though last week, So I'm saying trouble
• 29:21
  Speaker 6: in Paradise, baby.
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: But I mean they did go out the one thing.
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: I mean, the roster went healthy, just it was starting offense.
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: Their starting defense is as good as any in the NFL.
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: Mcveigh's obviously one of the best play callers maybe in
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: the history of the league. And the one the one
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: glaring need on their roster last year that I was
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: clamoring for, like going into the year during the year
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: was they needed like a lockdown corner, which they went
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: out and got, so they they addressed that that one need.
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: So to me, it's basically just comes down to for
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: their win total. I mean I project them at as
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: of right now, I project them at eleven point one.
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: I mean, you can find like an under eleven under
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: an eleven and a half out there, which I don't
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: hate right now I've done it, But like, do you
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: get the twelve plus wins that gott to stay healthy?
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: You you can't have like bad turnover lock bad close
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: game luck, and you know, you can't lose Stafford for
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: three a month and it's probably going to be a
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: tough division. So I would lean under on Rams at
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: eleven and a half as of right now.
• 30:38
  Speaker 7: And to answer your question, Kendra, I did a quick
• 30:41
  Speaker 7: look because I kind of liked that idea. So since
• 30:43
  Speaker 7: twenty twenty one, seventeen game schedule teams to go to
• 30:46
  Speaker 7: the conference championship game and then have a win total
• 30:48
  Speaker 7: of eleven plus, which would be the Rams three and
• 30:51
  Speaker 7: nine to the Under three and nine to the over,
• 30:53
  Speaker 7: so nine and three to the Under seventy five percent.
• 30:56
  Speaker 7: So definitely says to having to play further into the
• 30:59
  Speaker 7: post season then having really high expectations to do it
• 31:03
  Speaker 7: again the year after.
• 31:04
  Speaker 6: Interesting, I might even double down on my Rams under
• 31:08
  Speaker 6: right now.
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: Ken just stunting on them with that one.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: Two others that I want to isolate real quick, because
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: I would be remissed if we talked about double digit
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: win totals in the NFC and didn't talk about the
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: team that just won the Super Bowl. The Seahawks lost
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: some pieces, but not many. They lost Kenneth Walker, they
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: lost Riek Wollan, they lost Kobe Bryant. On the defense,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: they were ahead of schedule, and those teams are difficult
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: to forecast because they weren't building towards the Super Bowl run.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: Nobody really saw this coming. It just sort of happened.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: So did they overachieve or did they become one of
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: the league's dominant teams for years to come.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: One of those two things is.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: Probably true, and what you bet into as far as
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: win total is going to be indicative of which of
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: those you believe they have the best receiver in the
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: game in Jackson Smith and Jigba. Sam Darnold's been really
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: good for two years now, so I don't think we
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: could call him a fluke. He's got back to back
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: four thousand yard seasons, first quarterback to win thirty plus
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: games in a two year span for two different franchises.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: It's not a fluke for Sam Darnold. But is it
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: a fluke for the roster? I think that's the question
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: that we have to ask ourselves. Is anybody planting any
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: sort of a flag on how they feel about Seattle
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: going into the season.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: I think they're really tough read.
• 32:26
  Speaker 6: I have a comment before we get into this, because
• 32:29
  Speaker 6: we didn't talk about it off the top, but I
• 32:31
  Speaker 6: tweeted about it and you tweeted about it. Jackson Smith
• 32:34
  Speaker 6: and Jigba receiving the wrong award in the mast Stucky.
• 32:39
  Speaker 6: Did you see this?
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: Yeah? Amazing, Might as well keep it.
• 32:44
  Speaker 6: Did they make two of the trophies? Like? Did they
• 32:46
  Speaker 6: send them each to the wrong person, Like, what is
• 32:48
  Speaker 6: going on?
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: I was looking at.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: That after the production of the trophy going we nailed this,
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: then nailed it.
• 32:56
  Speaker 7: Should it had to have been mailed to like the
• 32:59
  Speaker 7: raw But I guess I don't know. That's insane. And honestly,
• 33:03
  Speaker 7: when I saw that, I just.
• 33:06
  Speaker 6: I have so many questions about did they outsource these?
• 33:12
  Speaker 6: Were these made in China? Like I need I need
• 33:15
  Speaker 6: to know?
• 33:16
  Speaker 7: Probably?
• 33:17
  Speaker 6: Yeah, seriously what was the question?
• 33:20
  Speaker 7: Though?
• 33:20
  Speaker 6: I'm sorry I got distracted.
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: Are you are you?
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: Are you up or down on Seattle? So Seattle? Seattle
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: fits the bill of a team that made it. They
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: exceeded their win total going into the year, They made
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: it far into the playoffs, won the Super Bowl. So
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: they played more games than anybody but New England, and
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: they enter the season with a win total of ten
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: and a half. They fit your mold of deal hitting
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: the under. It just depends on where you think this
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: team is in their climb. Is this where they're gonna
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: stay for a minute or are they falling back down?
• 33:56
  Speaker 6: I think that I this is what I don't know
• 33:59
  Speaker 6: if it's like Boyfriend trauma or Jaguars trauma. I want
• 34:02
  Speaker 6: to believe in Sam Donald, but I just don't. He's
• 34:05
  Speaker 6: like one of those boys that just is like hot
• 34:07
  Speaker 6: and cold all the time with you. I just I
• 34:11
  Speaker 6: don't know how I feel about him. And it's crazy
• 34:13
  Speaker 6: because he's proven this. He has the touch of koc,
• 34:15
  Speaker 6: he's he has all of the things that you would want.
• 34:18
  Speaker 6: But there just is still like a red flag buried
• 34:22
  Speaker 6: deep down inside of there, somewhere that I'm not sure
• 34:24
  Speaker 6: that I can get over, even though he seems perfect
• 34:28
  Speaker 6: on paper, you know what I mean. I just I
• 34:30
  Speaker 6: don't know what it is like. I am not.
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: I think that you're not.
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: I think you and a lot of people out there
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: are not able to get past his pa.
• 34:37
  Speaker 6: I'm an apologist for him, and I always know. I
• 34:40
  Speaker 6: literally was the one person at my station last year
• 34:43
  Speaker 6: who was waving my flag for Sam Donald, saying he's
• 34:46
  Speaker 6: not who he used to be, He's not the Sam
• 34:47
  Speaker 6: Donald from the jet.
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: Where is that person right now we're looking for?
• 34:52
  Speaker 6: I really I was that person last year. But now
• 34:55
  Speaker 6: that he's done the thing and proven that he's not
• 34:58
  Speaker 6: that person, I almost feel like it's like it's like
• 35:00
  Speaker 6: the person who is like, all right, I'm going to
• 35:02
  Speaker 6: run a marathon and then they run the marathon and
• 35:05
  Speaker 6: then they they're like, all right, I did it. That
• 35:07
  Speaker 6: was my goal. I'm going to go back to eating
• 35:08
  Speaker 6: snickers on my couch now. Like that's the type of
• 35:11
  Speaker 6: person I envisioned him becoming.
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: Somebody clipped that that's too good. Uh.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: They also us their offensive coordinator stuck you. I imagine
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: that that's part of the read for you on Seattle.
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's definitely one of the most noteworthy changes
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: of Seattle. I also don't think Donald deserves a ton
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: of credit. But Donald wasn't the the reason that they
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: won a super Bowl. It wasn't like he no.
• 35:39
  Speaker 6: He wanted to. He wanted our interception prop to hit
• 35:42
  Speaker 6: so bad. He was trying so hard to throw that
• 35:45
  Speaker 6: pick six. I was, okay, let's get Hooters.
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: Let's let's make sure that we separate these two. This
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: is not a do you think Seattle is winning the
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl again?
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: Conversation? This is do you think they they could win
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: ten games?
• 35:58
  Speaker 7: They could win ten games win the Super Bowl?
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the one they're gonna be one, Sam
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Donald to be great if they're gonna win eleven games.
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah. What I'm saying is, though that the main drivers
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: of their success last year, and I'm I'm a huge
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: McDonald guy. Like so, like I mentioned before, it's very
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: difficult to maintain an elite level of health, defense, and
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: special teams, and they hit all three of those marks,
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: and there were four games above five hundred and in
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: one possession games. Those are very difficult to duplicate. Now
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: it basically comes down to the number I'm at, like
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: around ten and a half my initial projection. Still have
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: a lot of work to do there. So, like I
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: thought I was going to be all about the Seattle under,
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: I'm not there yet. If I had to bet it,
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: it would be under or nothing. There's just a lot
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: of flashing signs that say that there's gonna be a
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: couple more bumps to deal with this year, including the
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: offensive coordinator. But can the defense now? I trust that
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: McDonald was like at the forefront of everything. Modern defense
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: is like what defenses are doing right now, and he's
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: a wizard in that aspect. I mean, look at the
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: Ravens under him, the ravens without him. Look what he's
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: done in Seattle. So, but there's still questions on this offense.
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: I mean the offense it was hit or miss last
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: year at times, and you have to remember, so I
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: would lean unders in my question. We have to remember Seattle,
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: and this happens in any almost every sport. When you
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: win a championship, you need some breaks and without so
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: it helped that they stayed healthy, and it helped that
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: Arizona and San France were decimated. But then the team
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: that was also healthy that they beat out for the
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: division that got them the home game in the playoffs.
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: That was basically a coin flip that they won, to
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: their credit, but that came down to a miraculous comeback
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: win and a two point conversion play where a ball
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: tipped forward and then got recovered, and like without that,
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: they're they're on the road. Like that, the Rams were
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: in the first round, the Rams are hosting that game,
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: and who knows how it all plays out. Instead, they
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: get the play you know, they get the one seed,
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: they get a bye. They played the forty nine ers,
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: you know practice squad thrown the Jake Tanjas one hundred times.
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: And then they win that coin flip against the Rams
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: at home, and then they get the the Patriots who
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: got you know who are a fraudulent AFC Super Bowl participant.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: That's another under another under contestant.
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: But thay so like they look, they got they caught
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: some breaks, they did, they were well deserved super Bowl
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: champ But there's there's certain things that would worry me.
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: I mean, can their special teams the people don't that
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: the Seahawks special teams was dominant all year that by
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: the way, the punt return led to the the come
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: back against the Rams which ended up getting in the
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: one seat, which went a long way and getting into
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. So it's gonna be tough for them
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: to have same health, same level of defense, and level
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: of special teams. And then there's questions about the offensive
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: coordinator change, which just led to it led to a
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: lot of big plays that Darnold made and big throws,
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: like the consistency on a down the down basis might
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: not have always been there, but he made a lot
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: of big time throws and they hit a lot of
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: explosive plays. So but there's still some questions on the
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: offensive line in the backfield and then that offensive coordinator.
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: So lean under, but I don't think you're like stealing
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: by betting it more of.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: The favorites coming up or planting our flag later in
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: the show, and I assure you the only place, the
• 39:47
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• 39:50
  Speaker 1: our bets, is over at Draft Kings.
• 39:52
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• 40:40
  Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about some movements that we've seen.
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: Two we have to talk more about that. We talk
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: about like the NFC West for like thirty five minutes.
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: Yes we did.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: No, I'm going to put a moratorium on NFC West talk.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: We will talk about anybody else moving forward. Two NFC
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: team win totals have moved all ready, buy or sell
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: this movement now, Evan, I'm gonna need your help with
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: this one because I am seeing conflicting reports out there.
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: As far as some line movement.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: In the market, the Dallas Cowboys moving from nine and
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: a half to ten and a half. Keep in mind
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: any movement that we talk about, there's a lot of
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: juice that's involved in the discussion. So sometimes you can
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: still find the nine and a half, but you're just
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: gonna have to pay up for it. The Falcons are
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: another one at seven and a half. They have moved
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: to eight and a half. Am I right on the teams?
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Is there anybody else that we need to add to
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: this discussion As far as movement since the schedule release.
• 41:38
  Speaker 7: I mean, for what it's worth, and again, all these
• 41:40
  Speaker 7: numbers change. I had Dallas up to nine and a half,
• 41:43
  Speaker 7: so you're right on the movement. I had them, just
• 41:45
  Speaker 7: they're not a double digit yet. Atlanta I had up
• 41:47
  Speaker 7: to seven and a half, and I think I had
• 41:49
  Speaker 7: one fall down. I think I had indied eight and
• 41:52
  Speaker 7: a half go down to seven and a half. This
• 41:55
  Speaker 7: a big bit of an aggregate. But those were the
• 41:57
  Speaker 7: three movements I saw from like a week before the
• 42:00
  Speaker 7: released to about now period. But you know, I think
• 42:03
  Speaker 7: I've seen some things where some books have moved Carolina
• 42:06
  Speaker 7: a little bit, but mostly those are the three teams
• 42:08
  Speaker 7: that I saw.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Carolina was moved at draft Kings. They were moved
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: from six and a half at minus one fifty which
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: is now minus one sixty five. Seven and a half
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: is at plus one ten to the over, so they
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: are getting some action towards the over on their win total.
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: I'll let you guys, pluck from any one of these
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: teams as far as buying or selling the movement Dallas Cowboys,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Kendra, any of those you're buying,
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: clearly buying or clearly selling.
• 42:43
  Speaker 6: I don't want anything to do with any of them,
• 42:45
  Speaker 6: none at all, No, thank you, goodbye. I don't want
• 42:48
  Speaker 6: anything to do with your dirty Birds. See, y'all.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: I kind of love all of these teams. I'm having
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: to talk about, Oh bit stuck. You throw the Falcons specifically.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: You guys know how I feel about them, and at
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: this point it's just like a stubbornness with them. I
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: the more I look at Dallas, the more I'm buying
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: hype on the Dallas Cowboys.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: What they've done defensively.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: Their defensive line looks much improved, and we know they're
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: gonna put up points.
• 43:15
  Speaker 6: Okay, we talked about Michael Parsons for a minute. I
• 43:18
  Speaker 6: have something controversial to say. At the time, people were
• 43:24
  Speaker 6: like packers, fleece, Cowboys totally suck screw Jerry Jones. In
• 43:29
  Speaker 6: a weird way, I feel he won this trade just
• 43:35
  Speaker 6: by being so stubborn and spiteful. But like MICHAEH. Parsons
• 43:39
  Speaker 6: wasn't healthy last year, I don't know how healthy he's
• 43:42
  Speaker 6: going to be now. Like, in a weird roundabout way,
• 43:45
  Speaker 6: did he sell him at the right time? And he
• 43:48
  Speaker 6: didn't do it because he is a genius or knew
• 43:50
  Speaker 6: anything going on. He did it because he's a cranky
• 43:52
  Speaker 6: old fart.
• 43:53
  Speaker 7: I'm just saying I think we find out some of
• 43:56
  Speaker 7: that this season. I think we find out this season,
• 43:58
  Speaker 7: Like if he gets hurt again, I think people still
• 44:00
  Speaker 7: to make proclamations. But he's an unbelievable player that it
• 44:04
  Speaker 7: just depends on if Dallas wins two right, Like I
• 44:06
  Speaker 7: think if Dallas wins, we tend to try to think
• 44:09
  Speaker 7: he won the trade. If Green, I think success on
• 44:12
  Speaker 7: the field has a little bit to do with it.
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: You also, i'd be you just can't predict injuries, but
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, so, I mean tearing uh you that's
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: what it took to to win the trade then, like
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: it probably wasn't terrible. But as far as those teams
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: you mentioned, like the Falcons, to me, I still have
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: a lot of work in the NFC South, But look
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: they do. There's the Bucks had a lot of injuries
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: last year. Like on Dragons, the Bucks are plus one
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: sixty to win the division. The Falcons are plus four fifty.
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: That's crazy to me. Like at the end of last
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: year the Falcons, I had the Falcons power at it
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: as the best team in the division. And if they
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: didn't have horrendous special teams which they've revamped, and horrendous
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: in game coaching WHI which they've revamped that cost them
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: a number of games. Uh you know, and they also
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: dealt with with some key injuries. But they I think
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: win that division with these Like all they needed was
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: one more of these crazy games they lost. I mean,
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: go back to the Jets game, which was a special
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: teams loss. You know they lost that in New England
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: when they missed an extra point. Like you can go
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: on and on. There's a couple games the missuse miss
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: field goals. So there's special teams in coaching, just those
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: that low hanging fruit gets better in this division. I
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: don't think, like I like what the Panthers did in
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: the draft and and and their offseason. I think that
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: they have more talent on their defense now. And I'm
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: a big Canalis guy, but I don't think and the Saints,
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: I think you're getting too much hype like that for
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: ye how they closed that at the end of the day,
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: I project all these teams like around eight wins, and
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: I don't think that there's much difference between them. So
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: like the Falcons at plus four fifties is crazy to me.
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: I know that there's there's the schedule is difficult, especially
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: there's quarterback uncertainty, which you have to mention with the Falcons,
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: and you have two quarterbacks who have been known to
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: not really stay healthy, and how's that going to shake
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: out early in the season when their schedule is tough.
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: I mean, you look at Atlanta's schedule, it's you know,
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: you're at Pittsburgh to start the year, which is never
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: easy place to play, But then you're home against Carolina,
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: at the Packers, at the Saints for the Katrina Anniversary,
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: home against the Ravens, home against the Bears, home against
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: the Niners, at the Bucks, neutral against Cincy, home without
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: a bye against Kansas City. Like, think about all that
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: for a team to finish in third place in the division.
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: There's not many gimmes on that schedule early, so like
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: it could get ugly. But if they can just stay
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: in the fight before the bye week and then their
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: quarterback position is settled, I don't think that there's much
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: difference between any of these teams in the division. So
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: the Falcons certainly are intriguing to me as a potential buy.
• 47:07
  Speaker 6: Sorry to Kravitz, why there's.
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: No way they're winning a Super Bowl.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: I like the idea was just get me to the
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: playoffs with the seventy five to one and I'll figure
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: it out from there.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: That was the whole That was the whole concept.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: But we are, whether you like to admit it or not,
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: we're in lockstep here and I.
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: Haven't bet I haven't gone there yet. My main hesitation
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: is you but we'll see and then I yeah. With Dallas,
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: I don't think I've ever I mean, I shouldn't ever
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: I have, I'd have to go look. But generally speaking,
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: I don't. I never show any value into Dallas over
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: because I mean, they generally are getting bet by people
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: and I just never that's my assumption.
• 47:48
  Speaker 6: They haven't won a Super Bowl since before I was born.
• 47:50
  Speaker 6: Let that sink in.
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: So like I.
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: Project Dallas at every I'm like this year, I was like,
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: I'm going to bet on Dallas, but I project them
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: at eight point nine if right now? So like I don't,
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: but how I would rather invest in the Dallas If
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: you like Dallas more upside bets on Dallas, whether it's
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: Division Conference super Bowl, because you know, the offense went healthy,
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: is gonna put up points to move the ball. The
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: most insuring thing to me about Dallas this year is
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: and these are some of the teams that I usually
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: end up buying. Like last year it was selling Detroit
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: because Ben Johnson and then also buying buying the Bears.
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: Same thing with the Jaggs buying them because of Liam
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: Cohen selling the Bucks because of the same reason. One
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: of the reasons that I hated Dallas last year was
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: Eberfluse and that horrendous defense. Now you bring in a
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: guy who I think has a ton of potential, and
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: there's a lot of aarans there because he's you know,
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: coordinator for the first time, but I think he has
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: the chance to be the next hot name. And they
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: definitely upgraded the talent, and you know, even a guy
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: like Downs could come in and just have a huge impact.
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: And those are the guys that are now so important
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: to modern defenses. These like Swiss army knife that can
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: be used in a lot of ways. So and their
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: defense doesn't need to be great, it just can't be
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: a complete sieve like it was last year. So there's
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: some upside with the Dallas defense. So if I were
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: to look and then who knows that the Eagles, there's
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: variants there, like new offensive coordinator, how's that going to
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: work out? How's this new offensive scheme? Going to fit
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: with Hurts and with the Brown fall out, how's that
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: all going to work out? There's still some lingering offensive
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: line questions that the Eagles haven't had in a while.
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: And then you know there's giants I think are getting
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: a little bit too much hype. I'm not their commanders
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: have too many holes. So I could see the Cowboys
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: winning that division, and if the defense takes a big leap,
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: then there's some upside. But I can't bet a win
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: total on Dallas, but that there's definitely some some upside.
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: I might look at in a number of different markets.
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: It might be one that you want to hit the
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: slider on.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: If you're going to bet on Dallas is to bet
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: them over ten and a half at two to one.
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: Over eleven and a half would be plus three seventy
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: over on DraftKings.
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: It's kind of an all or not.
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: Either they're going to hit on all cylinders because the
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: defense is much improved and the offense will be one
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: of the best in the NFL, or yeah, or they're
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: going to be the Cowboys and they're gonna fall flat
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: on their face.
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: Evan, do you have something on this on the.
• 50:33
  Speaker 7: I think stuck you had it right, if it was
• 50:35
  Speaker 7: going to get up to ten and a half on Dallas,
• 50:36
  Speaker 7: I kind of would have liked the under and then
• 50:38
  Speaker 7: would have taken some escalators like one seed, two seed,
• 50:41
  Speaker 7: like things that you know, Super Bowl, NFC, things that like,
• 50:45
  Speaker 7: because you're right, defense much better ebra flues, get the
• 50:48
  Speaker 7: heck out of here, better offense. I think the Giants
• 50:51
  Speaker 7: getting too much hype. I'll talk about Washington potentially as well,
• 50:54
  Speaker 7: but I think their schedule is brutal.
• 50:55
  Speaker 6: So I do think there's this year. Why do you
• 50:59
  Speaker 6: want the commander?
• 51:00
  Speaker 7: No, no, no, I'm not one Washington. I'd rather yeah, yeah,
• 51:04
  Speaker 7: I'm anti Washington.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: So for Washington, I think it would be the post
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: type that's kind of like the post type sleeper team
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: because last year, last year they were the team they
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: fell flat on their face.
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: Underperformance again.
• 51:19
  Speaker 6: Is an l seven.
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: They are now is to you know, it's two wins
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: less than it was. Yeah last year, Like I loved
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: their under last year it was at nine and a half.
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: Now seven and a half. Uh, we do it before
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: we get to we plan our flag. All of the
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: fine people in the Midwest. We haven't really talked about. Uh,
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: we've talked about any teams besides Parsons, but we talked
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: about any teams in the NSC North. So I'll just
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: go we'll make this really really quick. Sure, as of
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: right now, you have to pick for you get a
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: three million dollars if you get it right, no risk,
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: but you got to take a stance right now. Who
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: you taking to win the division?
• 52:11
  Speaker 6: I already logged into the app the Lions plus one
• 52:14
  Speaker 6: eight FIVEY. I didn't give it out because it was
• 52:19
  Speaker 6: a win total question and not a divisional winner question.
• 52:22
  Speaker 6: But I talked about it last week, so I already
• 52:24
  Speaker 6: logged into the action app the Lions.
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm as of right now, I'm leaning up. I'd
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: go I'm picking Packers. But it's gonna be a fascinating division.
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: I can't wait to break it down some more. Revan,
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: how about you? Who you taking right now?
• 52:38
  Speaker 7: Yeah, it's Packers or Lions. I understand why everyone would
• 52:40
  Speaker 7: go Detroit. I mean the strength, the schedule, there's just
• 52:43
  Speaker 7: so much to like about that, and plus finishing the
• 52:46
  Speaker 7: last and getting that. But I'm still so stuck on
• 52:48
  Speaker 7: Green Bay. I feel like I got a jobbed last year.
• 52:51
  Speaker 7: I feel like they probably had it so I'm between
• 52:53
  Speaker 7: those two. I don't know.
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a hypothetical free minute, anyone, oh Detroit, he
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: takes half the division.
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm taking all of you out to a hypothetical
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: steak dinner when we hit this hypothetical bet. One of
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: the things that blew me away and looking at the
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: Lions from last year, their win, their point differential last
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: year was plus sixty eight. That put them behind only
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: the Rams and the Seahawks in the NFC. They were
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: five and two going into the bye, and then after
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: that they were two and five and one score games.
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: They clearly missed Ben Johnson, they dealt with injuries, they
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: just felt like a team. They're the perfect example of
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: what we talked about to open this show. We spent
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: most of our time talking about double digit win totals,
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: teams that look so pretty in every single way, and
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: they're just gonna a lot of them are just gonna
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: fall short because it's the NFL and winning is hard,
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: and the Lions experienced that last year.
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: This is the this is the bounce back.
• 53:57
  Speaker 6: You're making it sound like when you take a girl
• 53:59
  Speaker 6: swimming on your first date and she's got like a
• 54:01
  Speaker 6: full beat and then all of her makeup comes off exactly.
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, you took the words right out of my mouth, Kendra.
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: What it sound like?
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: What let's plant our flag presented by DraftKings NFC win
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: total bets in a shut up.
• 54:17
  Speaker 7: I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: Okay, you're really planting your flag in that ding.
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: So we are planting our flag NFC wind totals.
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: After all of this discussion, you just win totals.
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: Just has to be a wind total here.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: This is a win total episode. So this is a
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: wind total bet. Kendrew, we will start with you.
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: I am all ten toes on the ground, standing firm
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: on the Rams under eleven and a half. Literally, all
• 54:48
  Speaker 4: ton of my toes are glued to the ground, not
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: even wearing sucks.
• 54:52
  Speaker 6: I'm raw dogging the floor.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: I am seeing a lot of unders here on this
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: document sitting in front of me.
• 54:57
  Speaker 7: So Rams fantast this loves the.
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: Under eleven and a half on the Rams. Evan, what
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: about you? What do you think?
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: Yes?
• 55:07
  Speaker 7: So my main approach here is doing exactly what our
• 55:11
  Speaker 7: best bets are. I think of these three teams, the
• 55:14
  Speaker 7: under will go two in one, and that's part of
• 55:17
  Speaker 7: my best bet thought process. So Kendrick took the Rams.
• 55:22
  Speaker 7: I'm gonna take Seattle under ten and a half. We
• 55:25
  Speaker 7: haven't talked about it on the show, but they fall
• 55:26
  Speaker 7: under a just a decent win total trend, which are
• 55:29
  Speaker 7: and I'll go through this quickly. In twenty twenty four,
• 55:31
  Speaker 7: Detroit won fifteen games with the win total of ten
• 55:34
  Speaker 7: and a half, going over by four and a half wins.
• 55:36
  Speaker 7: Then in twenty twenty five, Detroit had a win total
• 55:38
  Speaker 7: ten and a half. They were the eleventh team in
• 55:40
  Speaker 7: the last decade to have a double digit win total
• 55:42
  Speaker 7: the year after going over by four plus. Detroit won
• 55:46
  Speaker 7: nine games last year finished last. We know the whole deal.
• 55:48
  Speaker 7: Those teams are now two and nine to their over
• 55:51
  Speaker 7: following that year this year. That is the Seahawks UH
• 55:54
  Speaker 7: one fourteen last year with an eight and a half.
• 55:56
  Speaker 7: So there's a number of other factors we could talk
• 55:59
  Speaker 7: about here that have to fit ten playoff teams. The
• 56:01
  Speaker 7: rest and schedule thing is stuck. You talk about injuries.
• 56:05
  Speaker 7: So I'll take Seattle under. But I do think this
• 56:07
  Speaker 7: division also, I believe this division I'm double checking right
• 56:10
  Speaker 7: now faces NFC East and AFC West, which two pretty
• 56:16
  Speaker 7: strong divisions. And some strong opponents. So I'll go under
• 56:19
  Speaker 7: a Seattle.
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: Well, I said we weren't going to talk about the
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: NFC West anymore, and well that's where I am. Also,
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: forty nine ers under ten and a half wins. I
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: think it's pretty easy to predict that the NFC West
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: isn't going to produce three double digit winners and back
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: to back seasons.
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: The forty nine ers.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: To me right now, I feel like the biggest regression
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: candidate out there.
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: We all I mean, at least I don't think we
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: could all. We we can't go on three on these
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: first three.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: I don't think the title of this episode has to
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: be NFC West Preview because it just feels like we stuck.
• 56:52
  Speaker 7: Like, let me get Arizona's Arizona over.
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, let's just make this super correlated. But now
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: I'll go out to the NACS. The biggest edge that
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: I show right now is at DraftKings Falcons over six
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: and a half minus one fifteen.
• 57:07
  Speaker 6: Oh my god, I like it.
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: That's crazy to me, Like, I just don't see much
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: difference between the teams in that division.
• 57:16
  Speaker 6: Are we a dirty birds podcast this year?
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: So never trust the Falcons? Base backfires but that's that's
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: my biggest se as of right now. Even with all
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: the quarterback on certainty people, I think what people were
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: saying that they're only favored in two games or something
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: I saw, I mean, who cares, They're gonna They're gonna
• 57:33
  Speaker 3: be a ton of coin flip projected games.
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Ben money lines all year because.
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: Of that, They're gonna have a ton of short spread
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: coin flips. They lost a lot of those last year
• 57:43
  Speaker 3: because of the special teams, because of the in game coaching.
• 57:47
  Speaker 3: I think both will be significantly better this year. I
• 57:49
  Speaker 3: think it's a defense that's on the rise. And you know,
• 57:55
  Speaker 3: it's not an easy schedule for what you would think
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: with the Falcons and in that division and AF they're
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: finishing in third place and but a lot of their taller,
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: toughest quarterbacks are going to face at home. But if
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: they can just survive early, I think they're gonna shot
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: to win this division. And I think they get to
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: at least seven wins. So give Atlanta over.
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: Wow, if we had placed, if we had a bet
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: out there on Draft Kings, who on the Favorites podcast
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: was going to have the Falcons win total over on
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: the NFC Win Total podcast. I think Stucky would have
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: probably been priced at like three to one. I would
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: have been like minus six thousand.
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: Look at that. You never know what you're gonna get
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: on this podcast.
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: Rams under eleven and a half for Kendra, Evan is
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: under ten and a half for the Seattle Seahawks. I'm
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: going under on the forty nine ers at ten and
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: a half. Somebody's winning, somebody's winning, somebody's losing on that grouping.
• 58:50
  Speaker 7: And then this if we go three though, so.
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: Falcons over six and a half for Stucky over undraft
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: Kings where the crown is yours. That'll do it for
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: today's episode. Great to have you back, Stucky, thanks for
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: hopping in with us. Kenja Middleton, the one and Only
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: David Payne is back as well our producer Gifford Gold.
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: Go and check out the win Totals primer via Evan Abrams.
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: The Favorites will be back on Thursday AFC. Episode on
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: the Way on the Action Network YouTube page or wherever
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: you download your favorite podcast. Our show today has been
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours go.
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: Nixt Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: or someone you care about has a gambling problem.
• 59:47
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• 59:49
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