Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / Don’t Miss a BIG Investment Opportunity in this VITAL Midterms Race

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Don’t Miss a BIG Investment Opportunity in this VITAL Midterms Race · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  We have so much going on.
• 0:03
  I wanna remind you,
• 0:04
  by the way,
• 0:04
  that we have a podcast out there.
• 0:05
  You can always get it wherever you,
• 0:06
  uh,
• 0:07
  subscribe to your podcast.
• 0:08
  Predictable with Stu,
• 0:10
  search for it,
• 0:10
  find it there,
• 0:11
  do the download thing.
• 0:12
  We would love to have you as part of the team.
• 0:14
  We're actually expanding the team quite a bit today.
• 0:16
  We'll tell you about that here
• 0:18
  in just a minute,
• 0:19
  and we have a candidate countdown.
• 0:20
  We'll look at
• 0:21
  Arkansas today.
• 0:22
  We're getting closer and closer to this election.
• 0:24
  Maybe
• 0:25
  for fun
• 0:26
  and as a distraction,
• 0:27
  we'll look a little bit at some of the
• 0:28
  NFL stuff that happened over the weekend as well.
• 0:30
  There's so much
• 0:31
  ahead of us and it's a big week.
• 0:33
  There's not that many of them left before we get to the election.
• 0:36
  So join us.
• 0:37
  It's at predictableshow.com
• 0:40
  or youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 0:57
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 1:00
  Uh,
• 1:01
  we've got a great show lined up for you today.
• 1:02
  We're only 50 days away from the election,
• 1:04
  50 days,
• 1:05
  that's it.
• 1:06
  Uh,
• 1:06
  until this election actually takes apart,
• 1:08
  and we're really excited.
• 1:09
  Let me start here
• 1:10
  by announcing a new partnership we have here,
• 1:13
  uh,
• 1:13
  at Predictable
• 1:15
  with Stu.
• 1:16
  Uh,
• 1:16
  it is on the first TV.
• 1:19
  Yes,
• 1:19
  the first TV 9 p.m.
• 1:21
  Eastern on the first TV.
• 1:22
  This show is there.
• 1:23
  This is the first
• 1:25
  ever
• 1:26
  prediction market show
• 1:27
  to be available
• 1:29
  on,
• 1:29
  let's say,
• 1:30
  DirecTV Channel 340.
• 1:31
  7.
• 1:32
  We've got DirecTV.
• 1:33
  We've got AT&T Uverse.
• 1:35
  We've got Samsung,
• 1:36
  Samsung TV Plus.
• 1:38
  We've got Fubo TV.
• 1:39
  We've got Pluto TV.
• 1:40
  We've got the Blaze TV.
• 1:42
  We've got the first TV.
• 1:44
  So many great places to watch us.
• 1:45
  We're now like 25 million homes
• 1:49
  across America
• 1:50
  starting today and we're so excited to be part of the first TV.
• 1:54
  Great lineup,
• 1:54
  uh,
• 1:54
  if you,
• 1:55
  if you're watching on the first TV,
• 1:56
  uh,
• 1:56
  it's your first night.
• 1:57
  If you Don't know,
• 1:58
  uh,
• 1:58
  um,
• 1:58
  my name is Stu Burgeer.
• 1:59
  I've worked with,
• 2:00
  uh,
• 2:00
  Glenn Beck on the Glenn Beck program for many,
• 2:01
  many years.
• 2:02
  Uh,
• 2:03
  28 years.
• 2:04
  Yeah,
• 2:04
  I mean,
• 2:05
  they felt even longer for Glenn than they did for me,
• 2:06
  I promise you.
• 2:07
  Uh,
• 2:07
  28 years there,
• 2:09
  uh,
• 2:09
  and of course I have lots of friends over at the first.
• 2:11
  I mean,
• 2:11
  I know pretty much everybody,
• 2:13
  uh,
• 2:13
  on the line over there,
• 2:14
  been on Jesse Kelly's show many,
• 2:15
  many times.
• 2:16
  Uh,
• 2:16
  so we appreciate,
• 2:17
  uh,
• 2:18
  the first TV and hanging out with the first TV.
• 2:19
  It's a great group
• 2:20
  of people and a great,
• 2:22
  uh,
• 2:22
  new team,
• 2:22
  and I,
• 2:23
  I,
• 2:23
  I.
• 2:23
  I thought it'd be interesting maybe to talk about this,
• 2:26
  what the show is a little bit for you if you've
• 2:28
  never watched this or maybe you've heard of prediction markets,
• 2:32
  maybe you've heard them only in the context of sports or,
• 2:36
  uh,
• 2:36
  you know,
• 2:37
  in,
• 2:37
  in,
• 2:37
  in that sort of conversation.
• 2:38
  The,
• 2:38
  the mainstream media conversation on this
• 2:41
  is kind of ridiculous.
• 2:43
  Like the discourse about prediction markets
• 2:45
  is bordering on insanity to me,
• 2:47
  frankly.
• 2:48
  Um,
• 2:49
  and what I like about prediction markets is they do things
• 2:52
  that you just can't get,
• 2:54
  uh,
• 2:54
  in other
• 2:55
  with other mechanisms.
• 2:57
  We,
• 2:57
  we've attempted to build a news sort of,
• 3:00
  um,
• 3:01
  uh,
• 3:01
  ecosphere over the years.
• 3:03
  Uh,
• 3:03
  we've seen it happen and we,
• 3:05
  we,
• 3:05
  you know,
• 3:05
  we saw how it developed,
• 3:06
  right?
• 3:06
  Like back in the day,
• 3:07
  you had the mainstream media only.
• 3:09
  Mainstream media hung around and they gave you whatever lies
• 3:12
  they wanted to give you and on their schedule,
• 3:14
  right?
• 3:15
  There's a few choices,
• 3:16
  uh,
• 3:17
  2 or 3 networks,
• 3:19
  you'd kind of watch them,
• 3:20
  they would tell you exactly what you were supposed to believe,
• 3:23
  and,
• 3:23
  and then that,
• 3:24
  uh,
• 3:24
  that kind of,
• 3:25
  uh,
• 3:26
  was it.
• 3:27
  You had to deal with it.
• 3:28
  That was your life on a day to day basis.
• 3:30
  You had to,
• 3:32
  you know,
• 3:32
  do your own deep research to find any
• 3:35
  questions or um disagreement with what the mainstream media was providing to you.
• 3:40
  And
• 3:41
  obviously we know that went away cable news grew out.
• 3:43
  Fox News was one of the first.
• 3:45
  They,
• 3:45
  uh,
• 3:46
  grew out of that atmosphere,
• 3:47
  of course,
• 3:48
  even before that,
• 3:48
  Rush Limbaugh talk
• 3:50
  talk radio
• 3:50
  was able to challenge those narratives
• 3:52
  and you know there's been a,
• 3:54
  a building,
• 3:55
  uh,
• 3:56
  opposition to what the mainstream media is telling you all the time.
• 3:59
  And
• 4:00
  that has served an incredible purpose.
• 4:01
  Like it's,
• 4:02
  it's been,
• 4:03
  it's advanced us,
• 4:04
  I think,
• 4:04
  in a,
• 4:04
  in,
• 4:05
  in a lot of really great ways.
• 4:06
  We're in a much better situation than we were
• 4:08
  many,
• 4:08
  many years ago
• 4:09
  because there was no way to hear,
• 4:11
  uh,
• 4:12
  opposing voices,
• 4:13
  um,
• 4:14
  and,
• 4:14
  and I think 11 of the reasons why I like prediction markets a lot
• 4:17
  is because it is another step in that same
• 4:21
  sort of advancement when it comes to talking about
• 4:24
  politics and talking about the news of the day.
• 4:26
  It is a way to cut through
• 4:28
  all the noise that we currently have
• 4:30
  because obviously when,
• 4:32
  you know,
• 4:32
  when conservatives were able to come out with their
• 4:34
  sort of opposition media and and media that challenged
• 4:38
  the mainstream narratives,
• 4:40
  the left did the same,
• 4:41
  everyone spreads all their,
• 4:42
  uh,
• 4:43
  what their view is of the truth
• 4:44
  and it's sometimes.
• 4:45
  It's hard to dig in and and figure out exactly
• 4:48
  what we're looking at.
• 4:49
  The election's a great example of this,
• 4:50
  and I covered this for many,
• 4:51
  many years,
• 4:52
  uh,
• 4:52
  over,
• 4:53
  uh,
• 4:53
  with Glenn,
• 4:54
  uh,
• 4:54
  uh,
• 4:54
  I'm at,
• 4:54
  uh,
• 4:55
  the Glenn Beck program over at The Blaze.
• 4:57
  I do a show on The Blaze called Stu and Dave Do America as well,
• 4:59
  um,
• 4:59
  and
• 5:00
  we talk about this stuff all the time.
• 5:01
  How do you cut through what the mainstream media is doing to get to the truth?
• 5:05
  And
• 5:06
  having opposing voices is a really important part of that formula,
• 5:09
  but it's not the only thing.
• 5:11
  Um,
• 5:11
  if you think about when you come down to election time,
• 5:14
  you have what the mainstream media is telling you is going to happen,
• 5:17
  and we've seen this over and over and over and over again with elections.
• 5:20
  They tell you one thing,
• 5:22
  they want to,
• 5:23
  uh,
• 5:24
  give you their
• 5:25
  view of what
• 5:27
  not only what they want you to believe is happening,
• 5:29
  but what they want you to believe.
• 5:31
  They,
• 5:31
  they want to sell you on a vision of the country,
• 5:34
  right or wrong,
• 5:35
  that agrees with with what
• 5:37
  they see as the right way for us to go.
• 5:41
  Obviously I disagree with that entirely.
• 5:44
  Uh,
• 5:44
  I think,
• 5:45
  you know,
• 5:45
  more voices,
• 5:46
  not fewer,
• 5:46
  is a is a good
• 5:48
  beginning point
• 5:49
  to try to to suss through all of this.
• 5:52
  But the,
• 5:52
  the,
• 5:52
  the campaigns will also have their view of what's happening,
• 5:55
  and we know that they lie all the time,
• 5:57
  right?
• 5:57
  We know the campaigns are always saying,
• 5:58
  every,
• 5:59
  every candidate since the beginning of time has told me
• 6:02
  in every interview I've ever done with them that they're gonna win by 10 or 12 points.
• 6:06
  The,
• 6:06
  the
• 6:07
  some of them lose,
• 6:08
  of course,
• 6:08
  and
• 6:09
  the campaigns are out there
• 6:11
  with their view.
• 6:12
  They're incentivized to kind of lie to you,
• 6:14
  right?
• 6:15
  They want you to believe the best about their campaign.
• 6:17
  The mainstream media wants
• 6:19
  you to believe what they,
• 6:21
  uh,
• 6:21
  see,
• 6:21
  and,
• 6:22
  and they are kind of incentivized
• 6:24
  to not tell you the truth.
• 6:25
  And then you even have like,
• 6:26
  you know,
• 6:27
  all the,
• 6:27
  all the new media that's popped up,
• 6:29
  which is great to have different views,
• 6:31
  you know.
• 6:31
  Those people sometimes come along with their own
• 6:33
  rooting interests and their own interests as well.
• 6:35
  And so it's really hard to suss through all of that and figure out
• 6:39
  what the truth is.
• 6:40
  One of the things that I find to be almost universally true,
• 6:44
  however,
• 6:45
  is when you're talking to somebody and you're asking them a question,
• 6:47
  you're having a,
• 6:48
  a back and forth conversation
• 6:51
  about some issue.
• 6:52
  And
• 6:53
  they are hard,
• 6:54
  they're telling you exactly how it is,
• 6:55
  and this is how,
• 6:56
  how it's gonna be.
• 6:57
  It's gonna be there,
• 6:58
  you know,
• 6:58
  it's gonna be this way,
• 6:59
  it's gonna happen this way.
• 7:00
  I know what's gonna happen,
• 7:01
  you're wrong,
• 7:02
  and you hear that over and over and over and over again.
• 7:05
  One way to always cut into that and end that conversation is,
• 7:10
  Uh,
• 7:10
  you're gonna put your money where your mouth is?
• 7:14
  That that phrase has ended many,
• 7:16
  many Thanksgiving conversations,
• 7:18
  because
• 7:19
  most of the time the answer to that is no,
• 7:21
  they don't want to.
• 7:23
  When you are hosting a show on,
• 7:24
  um,
• 7:25
  you know,
• 7:25
  a mainstream media network,
• 7:26
  you're on NBC,
• 7:27
  CBS,
• 7:28
  uh,
• 7:29
  CNN,
• 7:30
  MSNBC,
• 7:31
  NOW,
• 7:31
  whatever the heck they're calling themselves these days.
• 7:34
  You don't have to put your money where your mouth is.
• 7:37
  You just come out and you're incentivized to please your audience.
• 7:41
  The same thing with these campaigns.
• 7:43
  They don't they don't,
• 7:43
  no one goes back after the campaign and says,
• 7:45
  well,
• 7:45
  wait a minute,
• 7:46
  3 days before the campaign,
• 7:47
  you told me you were gonna win by 10 points and you wound up losing by 5.
• 7:51
  How dare you?
• 7:52
  No one cares.
• 7:52
  They're out of your,
• 7:53
  they're out of your life,
• 7:54
  out of the world.
• 7:55
  And so,
• 7:56
  what prediction markets do,
• 7:58
  better than anything else,
• 7:59
  by the way,
• 8:00
  humanity is ever developed.
• 8:02
  Is to predict the future with real reliability.
• 8:05
  There have been studies done on prediction markets that have
• 8:07
  ranged from the tens of thousands of different markets,
• 8:11
  different questions,
• 8:12
  all the way into the millions
• 8:14
  of these particular contracts or questions.
• 8:17
  And what they found is they are almost perfectly calibrated.
• 8:21
  So when they say about
• 8:22
  something's gonna happen about 70% of the time,
• 8:24
  when you look back,
• 8:26
  about 70% of the time that thing happens.
• 8:28
  If they say it's 60%,
• 8:29
  it's about 60%.
• 8:30
  If they say 80%,
• 8:31
  it's about 80%.
• 8:32
  And this is a way because people have to put their money where their mouth is.
• 8:35
  When,
• 8:35
  when someone calls you and you wanna take a poll,
• 8:38
  uh,
• 8:38
  you can say,
• 8:39
  well,
• 8:39
  uh,
• 8:40
  you know,
• 8:40
  I,
• 8:40
  I,
• 8:41
  you can try to manipulate that poll.
• 8:43
  You can give them bad information,
• 8:44
  you cannot pick up your phone at all.
• 8:46
  With prediction markets,
• 8:47
  we get a really a perfect vision of what
• 8:50
  America believes about a particular
• 8:52
  topic
• 8:53
  and if you don't know anything about prediction markets,
• 8:55
  they basically the easiest way to understand them
• 8:57
  is they spit out a percentage to you.
• 9:00
  Um,
• 9:00
  they will give you a percentage of likelihood of a particular event and you
• 9:04
  can look and you can we and we look at these as investments,
• 9:06
  you know,
• 9:07
  some people are like,
• 9:07
  oh,
• 9:07
  you can gamble on this.
• 9:08
  That's not how we approach this at all.
• 9:10
  We are looking for real opportunities when it comes to actually
• 9:13
  uh increasing your profit,
• 9:14
  and that's part of this package
• 9:16
  as well.
• 9:17
  Because it's not only just distilling the best information possible,
• 9:21
  it's also looking for opportunities
• 9:23
  to correct those markets if they're wrong,
• 9:25
  and in,
• 9:26
  in doing so,
• 9:27
  uh,
• 9:27
  able to,
• 9:28
  uh,
• 9:29
  profit
• 9:30
  for yourself,
• 9:31
  for your family,
• 9:32
  maybe take your family out to a nice steak dinner,
• 9:34
  maybe take
• 9:35
  your family on a nice vacation,
• 9:36
  whatever it might be.
• 9:38
  Maybe you don't like your family,
• 9:39
  maybe you don't want to bring them.
• 9:40
  What,
• 9:40
  whatever it is.
• 9:42
  That's what we're doing here on Predictable with Stu.
• 9:44
  So we're gonna look for the best
• 9:45
  election information possible
• 9:47
  and we'll look for,
• 9:48
  uh,
• 9:48
  uh,
• 9:49
  you know,
• 9:49
  ways to kind of cut through the media lies
• 9:52
  and hopefully,
• 9:53
  uh,
• 9:53
  if you're interested in this particular part of it,
• 9:55
  almost,
• 9:56
  you know,
• 9:56
  it's,
• 9:56
  it's only about 20% of people that go
• 9:58
  to prediction markets actually invest in prediction markets.
• 10:01
  Uh,
• 10:01
  most people just go there to get the information and understand better,
• 10:05
  uh,
• 10:05
  to try to using markets.
• 10:07
  I mean this is something that's very,
• 10:08
  uh,
• 10:09
  central to conservatives,
• 10:10
  I think.
• 10:11
  is
• 10:11
  using markets
• 10:13
  to
• 10:13
  make the media landscape better.
• 10:16
  We do this all the time with other products,
• 10:17
  right?
• 10:18
  We lower the price of food.
• 10:19
  We
• 10:20
  innovations,
• 10:20
  uh,
• 10:20
  like,
• 10:21
  you know,
• 10:21
  your television and if you can remember the television you had 20 years ago,
• 10:24
  I bet the one
• 10:25
  that you're watching TV on today is a lot better.
• 10:27
  And probably when you look at it past inflation,
• 10:29
  it's probably cheaper too.
• 10:31
  Capitalism does a great,
• 10:32
  great job at,
• 10:32
  at making products better,
• 10:34
  and markets do a better,
• 10:35
  uh,
• 10:36
  a really good job at making things better,
• 10:37
  generally,
• 10:38
  certainly,
• 10:38
  um,
• 10:39
  and this can happen in the,
• 10:40
  in the new news space at all.
• 10:42
  It's not just about having a million different options.
• 10:44
  Uh,
• 10:45
  it's also about using markets
• 10:47
  to distill this information and cut through the noise.
• 10:50
  And that is actually something that's possible and is being done
• 10:53
  right now on prediction markets uh around the world.
• 10:57
  Now we've been talking about prediction markets for a while.
• 10:58
  We've been doing this show for a few months.
• 11:00
  Um,
• 11:01
  it is a,
• 11:01
  a pretty new show.
• 11:02
  In fact,
• 11:02
  it's one of the first prediction market shows that's ever existed.
• 11:04
  It's the first one that's ever been on,
• 11:06
  you know,
• 11:06
  DirecTV certainly.
• 11:07
  Um,
• 11:08
  and,
• 11:08
  uh,
• 11:09
  we have looked at,
• 11:10
  uh,
• 11:11
  primary races and what we've been doing
• 11:12
  is going through there looking for opportunities,
• 11:15
  looking to try to give you,
• 11:17
  uh,
• 11:17
  correct information
• 11:18
  about what's gonna happen in these,
• 11:20
  uh,
• 11:21
  in these elections,
• 11:21
  and look,
• 11:22
  I am a conservative.
• 11:24
  I make no apologies about that.
• 11:26
  I'm a,
• 11:26
  a proud conservative.
• 11:27
  I've been a conservative my entire life.
• 11:29
  When we're talking about prediction markets though,
• 11:31
  what we're seeking here is not necessarily
• 11:34
  a way to root on conservatives further.
• 11:36
  I will root for the candidate I want to win in every one of these races,
• 11:39
  but we're looking for who's going to win.
• 11:41
  And so far through the primary season we've done very,
• 11:44
  very well.
• 11:45
  Now just a little bit about myself.
• 11:47
  I go back to this,
• 11:48
  you know,
• 11:48
  when I was on the Glenn Beck program,
• 11:49
  I was on prediction markets back in the mid 2010s.
• 11:52
  I mean,
• 11:52
  I've been doing this for over a decade now,
• 11:54
  uh,
• 11:54
  and we've had really good,
• 11:55
  uh,
• 11:56
  luck on
• 11:57
  being able to
• 11:58
  win,
• 11:59
  uh,
• 11:59
  consistently on prediction markets
• 12:01
  over a long,
• 12:02
  long period of time.
• 12:03
  This is what we've done so far in the primary season.
• 12:05
  This is a couple of weeks old.
• 12:07
  It goes back.
• 12:08
  I know we have at least one more loss than this
• 12:09
  because it was Francesca Hong.
• 12:11
  Uh,
• 12:12
  she haunts me
• 12:13
  throughout this primary season,
• 12:14
  but,
• 12:15
  uh,
• 12:15
  the,
• 12:16
  uh,
• 12:16
  you know,
• 12:16
  these are the sizes of prediction market positions that we take.
• 12:20
  Um,
• 12:20
  they're called markers
• 12:21
  because marker is like the smallest position that would help you,
• 12:24
  uh,
• 12:24
  kind of just market a particular market.
• 12:26
  So you'd want to be able to check on that small,
• 12:28
  medium,
• 12:28
  large,
• 12:29
  and all in,
• 12:29
  right?
• 12:30
  This is what we have here.
• 12:30
  We hit about 74% of our smallest positions.
• 12:33
  Uh,
• 12:33
  the,
• 12:34
  uh,
• 12:34
  next biggest position is 83%,
• 12:36
  98% of medium
• 12:38
  positions,
• 12:38
  and then all of the positions that we've hit when we've really invested.
• 12:42
  Uh,
• 12:42
  in a big way
• 12:43
  to,
• 12:43
  uh,
• 12:43
  with real confidence,
• 12:44
  uh,
• 12:45
  we're 33-0.
• 12:46
  That goes back a couple of weeks,
• 12:47
  but
• 12:48
  that's
• 12:48
  what we're trying to do here.
• 12:50
  We're not trying to present to you,
• 12:51
  uh,
• 12:51
  uh,
• 12:51
  you know,
• 12:52
  a,
• 12:52
  a,
• 12:52
  a situation.
• 12:53
  I see this all the time in the media where they're like,
• 12:54
  oh gosh,
• 12:55
  it's who knows who's gonna win.
• 12:56
  It's 50/50.
• 12:57
  Who knows
• 12:57
  when everybody knows who's gonna win,
• 12:59
  and they're not telling you.
• 13:00
  This happens in the media all the time.
• 13:02
  We're trying to cut through that.
• 13:03
  That's what we do here on Predictable with Stu.
• 13:05
  We're really happy that you're joining us
• 13:07
  and checking it out.
• 13:08
  Um,
• 13:08
  I wanna give you another thing,
• 13:10
  and this is,
• 13:10
  um,
• 13:11
  something.
• 13:11
  That we're launching today.
• 13:14
  Uh,
• 13:14
  one of the,
• 13:15
  one of the issues that I've over the years
• 13:18
  found when trying to find reliable information is you can't just a lot of,
• 13:22
  you know,
• 13:22
  a lot of these news sources will be like,
• 13:23
  oh,
• 13:23
  here's the poll,
• 13:24
  and that's what's gonna happen.
• 13:26
  Well,
• 13:27
  that's a terrible way to look at an election.
• 13:29
  You can't just look at a poll,
• 13:30
  as you know,
• 13:31
  uh,
• 13:32
  my guess is you've probably never talked to a pollster.
• 13:35
  And that's because you're a human being,
• 13:37
  hopefully with a life,
• 13:38
  right?
• 13:38
  Like you get a call from someone who's like,
• 13:40
  hi,
• 13:40
  my name's
• 13:41
  Sally and I'm gonna
• 13:43
  ask you questions about the election.
• 13:45
  Most people just wanna hang up on that person.
• 13:47
  Uh,
• 13:47
  poor Sally,
• 13:48
  uh,
• 13:48
  she's gonna have to call somebody else.
• 13:50
  Polling is getting more and more difficult even if you take the best,
• 13:54
  best,
• 13:54
  uh,
• 13:54
  of their,
• 13:55
  uh,
• 13:55
  intentions when you talk about pollsters,
• 13:58
  it is almost impossible to get people on the phone.
• 14:00
  It's really,
• 14:01
  really difficult to project these things right now and they have all sorts of,
• 14:05
  of real,
• 14:06
  uh,
• 14:06
  pitfalls in trying
• 14:08
  to project
• 14:10
  what
• 14:11
  message and what election outcome,
• 14:14
  uh,
• 14:14
  to tell you about
• 14:15
  even when they're trying to do it right,
• 14:17
  it's really hard.
• 14:18
  So we don't look at a poll,
• 14:20
  but we look at polling averages.
• 14:22
  We look at fundamentals.
• 14:24
  We look at fundraising totals.
• 14:26
  We look at
• 14:26
  questions about the candidate and candidate quality.
• 14:28
  We do film work,
• 14:30
  right?
• 14:30
  Like,
• 14:30
  you know,
• 14:30
  just like you're watching a sports broadcast,
• 14:33
  we'll watch those debates.
• 14:34
  We'll watch how these people interact
• 14:36
  in,
• 14:36
  uh,
• 14:36
  their,
• 14:37
  uh,
• 14:37
  campaigning.
• 14:38
  We try to get into each local,
• 14:40
  uh,
• 14:40
  issue,
• 14:41
  right?
• 14:41
  There's a candidate that was a race that was very,
• 14:43
  very close recently because.
• 14:45
  Of a particular plant that had been built
• 14:47
  in a city that local people
• 14:49
  didn't
• 14:50
  didn't want
• 14:51
  and you know we talked to you about the risk of,
• 14:53
  of,
• 14:54
  of this where it seems like,
• 14:55
  oh gosh,
• 14:55
  well everyone knows,
• 14:57
  you know,
• 14:57
  I don't know I can't remember the exact race it was,
• 14:59
  but like the Republicans going to win.
• 15:00
  It's a big red state,
• 15:01
  of course the Republicans are going to win.
• 15:03
  Yeah,
• 15:03
  but there's questions
• 15:04
  about a particular
• 15:05
  local issue that,
• 15:07
  you know,
• 15:07
  you're living in New York may have no idea about.
• 15:09
  These races make a difference though.
• 15:11
  Gubernatorial races certainly make a difference within those states.
• 15:14
  Uh,
• 15:15
  House races and Senate races quite obviously make
• 15:17
  a difference to you and your everyday life,
• 15:19
  and knowing who's going to win,
• 15:21
  who's going to lose,
• 15:22
  understanding it,
• 15:22
  and seeing if you can potentially make a profit off of it,
• 15:25
  uh,
• 15:25
  which is,
• 15:26
  I think,
• 15:26
  just an added bonus,
• 15:27
  is a,
• 15:28
  a real thing that these markets do well
• 15:30
  and they've done well for a very.
• 15:32
  Long time politicians have been making money off of you
• 15:34
  your entire life.
• 15:36
  Maybe it's time
• 15:37
  that you turn the tables on them a little bit,
• 15:38
  and that's what we do here
• 15:40
  on Predictable with Stu.
• 15:41
  Now we have a website,
• 15:42
  it's called PredictableShow.com.
• 15:44
  You can go there,
• 15:44
  you can get all sorts of,
• 15:45
  uh,
• 15:46
  different,
• 15:46
  uh,
• 15:46
  you know,
• 15:47
  articles about,
• 15:48
  uh,
• 15:49
  the election and everything else.
• 15:50
  This is a brand new thing we have launching today.
• 15:52
  Uh,
• 15:53
  this is called the predictable midterm consensus,
• 15:55
  and what it is is as an election model.
• 15:58
  Um,
• 15:58
  let me talk to you quickly about this before we go through all of,
• 16:01
  all of the pictures on the screen.
• 16:03
  It is a,
• 16:04
  it's a
• 16:05
  something that I had to do looking for all this is
• 16:07
  I just described like 10 different categories,
• 16:09
  right,
• 16:09
  of information.
• 16:11
  Distilling that into
• 16:12
  whether someone's going to win or what someone's going to lose is very,
• 16:15
  very difficult,
• 16:16
  um,
• 16:17
  and it also is really time consuming,
• 16:18
  right?
• 16:19
  I used to have to go to 10 and 20 websites and,
• 16:21
  and search through all sorts of government data and,
• 16:24
  uh,
• 16:24
  all this reporting data when it comes to fundraising,
• 16:27
  all this stuff.
• 16:28
  It's just really,
• 16:28
  really hard.
• 16:29
  And it took a long time.
• 16:30
  So when I was,
• 16:31
  uh,
• 16:31
  on with Glenn a couple of years ago for the presidential election,
• 16:34
  we were,
• 16:35
  uh,
• 16:36
  able to build something that we call the Pulsecast,
• 16:37
  and it was a,
• 16:38
  a kind of an idea to try to get a consensus of all of these experts,
• 16:42
  not my opinion about what's going to happen,
• 16:44
  but
• 16:45
  what is the opinion of every,
• 16:47
  all the data?
• 16:47
  What does it tell us?
• 16:48
  What does it really show us?
• 16:50
  Not,
• 16:50
  we're not injecting opinion here.
• 16:52
  We're trying to figure out exactly what the data shows
• 16:54
  us and then we can judge it for ourselves.
• 16:56
  We can say,
• 16:56
  hey,
• 16:57
  that actually sounds right.
• 16:58
  I think that's gonna happen,
• 16:59
  or I think they're way off based on this.
• 17:01
  But it's important to understand what that baseline is
• 17:03
  and to actually get it,
• 17:04
  you can go to one site and get an opinion.
• 17:07
  Uh,
• 17:07
  and that will take you a couple of minutes,
• 17:09
  but when you really wanna get the entire,
• 17:12
  uh,
• 17:12
  breadth of information,
• 17:13
  it takes a long time to go through that.
• 17:15
  So we built something,
• 17:16
  uh,
• 17:16
  that was,
• 17:17
  uh,
• 17:17
  tried to do that,
• 17:18
  uh,
• 17:18
  and I think did it pretty well.
• 17:20
  We've improved on that quite a bit with this,
• 17:22
  which we're releasing today.
• 17:23
  It's called the predictable,
• 17:24
  uh,
• 17:24
  predictable,
• 17:25
  uh,
• 17:25
  midterm.
• 17:26
  Consensus and this is kind of what it looks like
• 17:28
  we showed you a little preview of it here,
• 17:29
  but
• 17:30
  it is a um
• 17:32
  uh we you know kind of call it the PMC for short,
• 17:34
  but
• 17:34
  uh it'll this is if you go to predictableshow.com you can see it.
• 17:38
  It kind of explains,
• 17:39
  keep scrolling
• 17:39
  this kind of explains basically
• 17:41
  what it is and one of the things that we've done here.
• 17:44
  If we took the prediction market
• 17:47
  data out of the model.
• 17:49
  And you think,
• 17:49
  OK,
• 17:49
  we're a prediction market show.
• 17:51
  Why would we want the prediction market data out of the model?
• 17:53
  Well,
• 17:54
  there's a reason for that because we're gonna,
• 17:55
  we wanna show you what the gap is,
• 17:56
  right?
• 17:57
  This is,
• 17:57
  if you see here,
• 17:58
  now everybody knows,
• 17:59
  uh,
• 18:00
  history tells us
• 18:01
  that this is gonna be a challenging year for Republicans
• 18:04
  right now,
• 18:04
  these election,
• 18:05
  you know,
• 18:06
  gurus,
• 18:07
  uh,
• 18:07
  you know,
• 18:08
  and polling experts and,
• 18:09
  and,
• 18:09
  uh,
• 18:10
  expert opinion and all that stuff,
• 18:11
  they have it at an 82.9% chance the Democrats are gonna win the House.
• 18:15
  The markets are actually
• 18:17
  more aggressive for Democrats there.
• 18:19
  If you kind of scroll down just a little bit so we can see that next box,
• 18:21
  85.5% calci,
• 18:23
  uh,
• 18:23
  86.5% poly market,
• 18:26
  they believe even that Democrats are gonna win more.
• 18:28
  It's the opposite with the Senate,
• 18:30
  where,
• 18:30
  uh,
• 18:31
  the Senate,
• 18:32
  the markets are more favorable for Republicans
• 18:35
  than the experts.
• 18:37
  Uh,
• 18:37
  this is something that you can do to try to find out.
• 18:40
  Uh,
• 18:41
  1,
• 18:41
  what really the data is actually telling you and,
• 18:44
  and be able to judge that for yourself for the election.
• 18:46
  And number 2,
• 18:48
  be able to look for the gap.
• 18:49
  The gap here is important because if the gap
• 18:52
  is large,
• 18:54
  you have a potential
• 18:55
  value proposition in front of you,
• 18:57
  right?
• 18:58
  Is it,
• 18:58
  which one is right?
• 18:59
  Are the markets right?
• 19:00
  Uh,
• 19:00
  or,
• 19:01
  uh,
• 19:01
  are these experts right?
• 19:03
  You can judge that.
• 19:04
  Um,
• 19:05
  now,
• 19:05
  everybody,
• 19:06
  uh,
• 19:06
  gets this for free.
• 19:07
  This is a free tool that I want you to be.
• 19:09
  To see because I want you to be able to have the best picture possible
• 19:12
  about what's coming up in this election.
• 19:13
  We all know House control and Senate control.
• 19:15
  We've seen some of the candidates.
• 19:17
  These guys are running,
• 19:18
  OK?
• 19:18
  We've seen where we've seen these parties,
• 19:22
  uh,
• 19:22
  you know,
• 19:22
  particularly the Democrats move
• 19:24
  from,
• 19:25
  you know,
• 19:25
  someone I,
• 19:26
  I still thought they were terrible,
• 19:27
  honestly,
• 19:28
  a while ago,
• 19:29
  but going farther and farther and farther and farther
• 19:31
  to the left to the point that they're running,
• 19:33
  uh,
• 19:33
  avowed socialists for these
• 19:35
  races.
• 19:36
  Who's going to control the House and the Senate
• 19:39
  is really,
• 19:39
  really important,
• 19:41
  and it's gonna be important to your life on a day to day basis.
• 19:44
  Unfortunately,
• 19:44
  I,
• 19:45
  I,
• 19:45
  I would choose to live in a world
• 19:47
  where the government didn't affect,
• 19:48
  uh,
• 19:49
  us as much that we could just live our lives and we didn't have to deal with them
• 19:52
  taking all of our money and making all sorts of rules and all of that.
• 19:56
  Uh,
• 19:56
  I don't,
• 19:56
  we don't frankly live in that role right now.
• 19:58
  I think we should work toward it,
• 19:59
  but
• 20:00
  right now this is the world that we live in and that's,
• 20:02
  that's what we have to look at.
• 20:04
  Um,
• 20:04
  if you are a premium subscriber,
• 20:06
  we have a premium,
• 20:07
  uh,
• 20:07
  subscription as well at predictableShow.com.
• 20:10
  This is for you if you happen to be
• 20:11
  someone who is interested in investing in these markets.
• 20:14
  We have some great tools for you,
• 20:15
  uh,
• 20:15
  if you'd like to try to make a profit off these markets,
• 20:17
  and,
• 20:18
  uh,
• 20:18
  a lot more,
• 20:19
  right?
• 20:20
  If you go back to the,
• 20:21
  uh,
• 20:21
  the PMC here for a minute,
• 20:22
  the predictable market consensus,
• 20:24
  um,
• 20:25
  and you kind of scroll down below that first initial map,
• 20:27
  uh,
• 20:28
  that shows,
• 20:29
  uh,
• 20:29
  where we are,
• 20:30
  um,
• 20:30
  you kind of see this is how the odds have changed over time.
• 20:32
  Keep scrolling down.
• 20:34
  Um,
• 20:34
  and you'll see,
• 20:35
  uh,
• 20:35
  there's a kind of a national picture and then it goes into the,
• 20:38
  the paid subscription,
• 20:39
  which for some reason our own control room is not a paid.
• 20:42
  Can you,
• 20:42
  can you freaking pay cough up the cash?
• 20:45
  I mean,
• 20:45
  what the heck?
• 20:46
  You're not a paid subscriber to our own freaking show?
• 20:49
  Unbelievable.
• 20:50
  Uh,
• 20:51
  below that,
• 20:51
  which,
• 20:51
  uh,
• 20:52
  for whatever reason isn't there today,
• 20:53
  uh,
• 20:53
  is,
• 20:54
  is the,
• 20:54
  uh,
• 20:55
  is the map of,
• 20:56
  uh,
• 20:56
  all of the Senate races individually.
• 20:58
  That's,
• 20:58
  uh,
• 20:59
  so you know,
• 21:00
  everyone gets the House and the Senate for free,
• 21:02
  and then every individual race
• 21:03
  is available there.
• 21:04
  There are some major gaps
• 21:06
  between what the experts say sometimes in double digits points between what the
• 21:10
  mark where what the markets are saying and what the experts are saying.
• 21:13
  Those are the types of markets and interesting opportunities
• 21:16
  that are out there,
• 21:17
  uh,
• 21:17
  potentially if you're looking.
• 21:19
  Uh,
• 21:19
  to profit
• 21:20
  in these markets as well.
• 21:22
  That's kind of where we come at this.
• 21:24
  We're gonna be,
• 21:24
  uh,
• 21:24
  there we go,
• 21:25
  now you can see
• 21:26
  if you kinda click on the states here,
• 21:27
  click on one of the states,
• 21:28
  maybe Texas or whatever,
• 21:29
  um,
• 21:30
  and you can kinda see how that stuff builds out.
• 21:32
  Um,
• 21:33
  Democrats now have an edge according,
• 21:35
  uh,
• 21:35
  to expert opinion.
• 21:38
  Democrats had a great polling week,
• 21:39
  by the way.
• 21:40
  Part of this.
• 21:42
  What they're not telling you
• 21:43
  is that they have changed from their registered voter
• 21:47
  models to their likely voter
• 21:49
  screens.
• 21:49
  So
• 21:50
  basically what that means is usually they'll be like,
• 21:52
  Hey,
• 21:52
  are you registered to vote?
• 21:53
  If you are,
• 21:54
  you can,
• 21:54
  you can,
• 21:55
  uh,
• 21:55
  you know,
• 21:55
  get your opinion in the poll.
• 21:57
  When they get closer to the election,
• 21:58
  they start changing that to likely voters.
• 22:00
  Uh,
• 22:01
  so when they do that,
• 22:02
  people,
• 22:03
  like if someone says,
• 22:04
  Well,
• 22:04
  yeah,
• 22:04
  I'm registered to vote,
• 22:05
  but I haven't voted in the last 6 elections,
• 22:07
  they won't count you.
• 22:08
  You're still on the phone with them,
• 22:10
  they're still interrupting your dinner,
• 22:11
  uh,
• 22:12
  but they don't count you in the poll a lot
• 22:13
  of times when they go to a likely voter screen.
• 22:15
  When that is happening,
• 22:17
  they're saying,
• 22:17
  OK,
• 22:17
  who are the people who are dedicated to vote,
• 22:19
  who are really passionate to vote,
• 22:20
  who have the,
• 22:21
  uh,
• 22:21
  the energy?
• 22:22
  This should worry you if you're a conservative
• 22:24
  in that
• 22:26
  Democrats are doing better in the likely voter screens than Republicans.
• 22:29
  Again,
• 22:29
  polls are polls.
• 22:30
  There's only one part of the,
• 22:31
  uh,
• 22:31
  piece,
• 22:32
  the only one part of the,
• 22:33
  uh,
• 22:33
  the sort of.
• 22:34
  Um,
• 22:35
  a picture of all of the information that we have to look at when we view,
• 22:38
  uh,
• 22:38
  an election,
• 22:39
  but this is gonna give you a basic sense.
• 22:40
  You can go to predictableShow.com.
• 22:42
  You get all that information
• 22:43
  for free.
• 22:43
  You get one of the individual Senate races.
• 22:45
  That's part of the predictable
• 22:46
  show.
• 22:46
  There's a great community there.
• 22:48
  There is a live stream of the broadcast as we do it every day.
• 22:51
  Uh,
• 22:51
  there is,
• 22:52
  uh,
• 22:53
  there's,
• 22:53
  you know,
• 22:53
  tons of stuff we actually.
• 22:55
  I have all of my prediction market positions that you can look at and either
• 22:59
  come along with me on the journey
• 23:01
  or make fun of me because I'm an idiot,
• 23:02
  one of the,
• 23:03
  one of the two,
• 23:03
  that's fine too.
• 23:04
  Uh,
• 23:04
  uh,
• 23:05
  over 300 market positions that I currently hold
• 23:08
  are up on predictableShow.com.
• 23:10
  As well,
• 23:11
  so
• 23:11
  that's all up there.
• 23:12
  We have a bunch of tools for you too if you're just getting started.
• 23:14
  We have a predictable 101,
• 23:16
  uh,
• 23:16
  tool so you can kind of see how these markets work and understand them.
• 23:19
  If you wanna try to buy or sell,
• 23:21
  how does that all work?
• 23:22
  And then we also have the predictable constitution where we have,
• 23:25
  uh,
• 23:25
  kind of a,
• 23:26
  a bunch of rules of the road,
• 23:27
  if you will,
• 23:28
  so we don't make stupid mistakes.
• 23:30
  And the,
• 23:30
  the,
• 23:30
  the worst part about it,
• 23:31
  I think there's 18 amendments,
• 23:32
  and I've made all the mistakes on there myself.
• 23:34
  I've been making those mistakes for years and years,
• 23:36
  so you don't have to.
• 23:38
  Anyway,
• 23:38
  uh,
• 23:38
  this is what we do here on Predictable with Stu.
• 23:41
  Thanks so much for joining us.
• 23:42
  We've got a lot coming up.
• 23:43
  We're gonna talk to you about a race,
• 23:44
  uh,
• 23:44
  in just a moment that is gonna give you kind of a preview of,
• 23:47
  of,
• 23:48
  of where there are opportunities and certain types of opportunities
• 23:51
  in these markets.
• 23:52
  We'll look at that coming up next.
• 24:14
  We are 50 days away from the midterm elections right now,
• 24:18
  and you know that sounds like a a long way away.
• 24:21
  Uh,
• 24:21
  we do still have
• 24:23
  one primary election left.
• 24:24
  Yes,
• 24:25
  we'll talk about it a little bit tomorrow.
• 24:26
  It's Delaware.
• 24:27
  Delaware is the only one left September 15th,
• 24:29
  which is tomorrow,
• 24:31
  uh,
• 24:31
  if I'm not mistaken,
• 24:32
  tomorrow,
• 24:33
  the last very primary that I'll give you,
• 24:35
  you know,
• 24:36
  again,
• 24:36
  we kind of know how Delaware elections typically go,
• 24:39
  but we'll go through some of the details of that,
• 24:40
  uh,
• 24:41
  tomorrow.
• 24:42
  Um,
• 24:42
  and you think,
• 24:43
  OK,
• 24:43
  well,
• 24:43
  the primary season ends tomorrow then,
• 24:44
  wow.
• 24:45
  So how many days between that and,
• 24:46
  and the election are there?
• 24:47
  And you might say,
• 24:47
  oh,
• 24:48
  well,
• 24:48
  what is it,
• 24:48
  49 or whatever.
• 24:49
  No,
• 24:50
  not really.
• 24:51
  There's basically 3 days.
• 24:53
  The reason I say that is because early voting starts in 4 days
• 24:58
  for the midterm election,
• 24:59
  which is being held in 50 days.
• 25:01
  This is completely ridiculous.
• 25:04
  We're 46 days early.
• 25:07
  I mean,
• 25:07
  this makes no sense.
• 25:08
  This is where this starts though.
• 25:09
  Minnesota,
• 25:10
  South Dakota,
• 25:11
  and Virginia starts on September 18th,
• 25:13
  September 19th,
• 25:14
  early voting in Vermont,
• 25:15
  September 24th in Illinois,
• 25:17
  October 4th in Maine,
• 25:19
  and of course many states will follow,
• 25:20
  uh,
• 25:20
  after that.
• 25:21
  But those,
• 25:21
  that's your first sort of early batch
• 25:24
  of states,
• 25:25
  and we do this every single day.
• 25:26
  One of the reasons we,
• 25:27
  you know,
• 25:27
  as I mentioned,
• 25:28
  all of my picks,
• 25:29
  uh,
• 25:29
  for these races
• 25:31
  are up at predictableshow.com.
• 25:33
  Um,
• 25:34
  but we try to feature a different one every day,
• 25:35
  looking for kind of weird sort of
• 25:37
  opportunities that maybe wouldn't exist.
• 25:39
  And,
• 25:40
  you know,
• 25:40
  a lot of people say,
• 25:41
  uh,
• 25:41
  you know,
• 25:42
  when we're talking about prediction markets,
• 25:43
  if,
• 25:43
  you know.
• 25:45
  It can feel like,
• 25:46
  oh gosh,
• 25:46
  I you see all the time on,
• 25:47
  on TV.
• 25:48
  It's like,
• 25:48
  oh this is gambling.
• 25:50
  Let me show you an example of how
• 25:51
  we do this differently here at predictableShow.com.
• 25:54
  Um,
• 25:54
  your
• 25:55
  bank account.
• 25:57
  Probably pays you like 3% per year,
• 25:59
  right?
• 25:59
  I mean,
• 25:59
  it depends.
• 26:00
  Honestly,
• 26:00
  some of them right now are paying like 0%
• 26:03
  per year.
• 26:03
  Um,
• 26:04
  and we find that there are many more better opportunities on prediction markets
• 26:09
  than that type of return.
• 26:10
  Now,
• 26:10
  these prediction markets,
• 26:11
  by the way,
• 26:11
  will also pay you 3.5%
• 26:14
  on the money that you have on them anyway.
• 26:15
  I will note that it is not FDIC insured,
• 26:18
  uh,
• 26:18
  but
• 26:19
  it is,
• 26:19
  uh,
• 26:19
  we do look at
• 26:20
  those,
• 26:21
  um,
• 26:21
  markets,
• 26:21
  and they've been,
• 26:22
  these are major,
• 26:23
  major companies that are worth
• 26:24
  tens of billions of dollars
• 26:26
  and have been reliable,
• 26:28
  at least for me,
• 26:28
  for the entire time I've been on there.
• 26:30
  So again,
• 26:30
  I'm not pitching for them individually,
• 26:32
  I'm just telling you,
• 26:33
  uh,
• 26:33
  what my experience has been.
• 26:35
  Uh,
• 26:35
  we're not an investment advice show.
• 26:37
  Uh,
• 26:37
  but we do
• 26:38
  talk about the positions that I take personally in these markets
• 26:41
  and look for ways to grow our cash.
• 26:43
  So let me,
• 26:43
  uh,
• 26:43
  give you a little bit of a picture of one of the candidates
• 26:46
  that we're talking about in our candidate countdown
• 26:48
  with sort of a unique opportunity that's presented itself
• 26:51
  for a small but interesting profit.
• 26:53
  This is,
• 26:54
  uh,
• 26:54
  50 days until,
• 26:56
  uh,
• 26:56
  the midterms.
• 26:57
  Our candidate countdown
• 26:58
  pick of the day today
• 27:00
  is Senator Tom Cotton.
• 27:02
  Now Tom,
• 27:03
  you of course,
• 27:04
  uh,
• 27:04
  know him,
• 27:04
  he's been,
• 27:05
  he's on TV a decent amount.
• 27:07
  Um,
• 27:07
  and talking about all sorts of various things,
• 27:09
  conservative Republican in a bright red state,
• 27:11
  and that's why,
• 27:12
  uh,
• 27:13
  of course it's the easy pitch to understand why this market is here.
• 27:16
  Let me tell you why it's interesting here in a second.
• 27:18
  Let me give you the case for Tom Cotton.
• 27:19
  Now look,
• 27:19
  he is,
• 27:20
  of course,
• 27:20
  in a Republican state.
• 27:22
  Donald Trump won Arkansas by about 31 points
• 27:25
  in 2024.
• 27:26
  Sarah Huckabee Sanders.
• 27:27
  Won by 28,
• 27:28
  uh,
• 27:28
  in 2022 when she was running for the gubernatorial race.
• 27:31
  These,
• 27:31
  these races are not typically all that close.
• 27:34
  Cotton has won statewide already twice.
• 27:37
  First time by 17 points
• 27:39
  over Mark Pryor.
• 27:40
  Second time over actually the Democrats didn't even
• 27:42
  bother fielding a candidate the second time he ran
• 27:45
  in 2020.
• 27:45
  Cotton won by 33 points,
• 27:47
  um.
• 27:49
  This is basically what Arkansas is,
• 27:51
  right?
• 27:51
  It is a bright red state.
• 27:52
  You're talking 1020,
• 27:54
  30% victories for conservatives typically.
• 27:57
  There is reason,
• 27:58
  of course,
• 27:58
  to believe,
• 27:59
  uh,
• 27:59
  that this might be a little bit closer,
• 28:01
  uh,
• 28:01
  than,
• 28:02
  uh,
• 28:02
  than what we're looking at,
• 28:03
  um,
• 28:04
  you know,
• 28:04
  in,
• 28:04
  in these past races,
• 28:05
  and I think that's actually true.
• 28:07
  I don't expect it to be a 30 point margin here,
• 28:09
  uh,
• 28:10
  when we're talking about Tom Cotton's race.
• 28:12
  She,
• 28:12
  he is going to get someone named Haley,
• 28:14
  uh,
• 28:15
  uh,
• 28:15
  Schaffner.
• 28:17
  Hayley Schaffner,
• 28:18
  uh,
• 28:18
  she is,
• 28:19
  uh,
• 28:19
  in this race,
• 28:20
  and she's kind of presenting herself as,
• 28:21
  well,
• 28:22
  you know,
• 28:22
  Tom Cotton's always going on Fox News.
• 28:23
  He's always talking about these national issues.
• 28:25
  I'm a farmer.
• 28:26
  I live here.
• 28:27
  I'm from your community.
• 28:28
  It's that type of pitch,
• 28:29
  uh,
• 28:29
  for her
• 28:30
  now.
• 28:32
  There's a lot of different things that Democrats are
• 28:33
  doing to try to win in bright red states.
• 28:35
  The,
• 28:35
  the most common one,
• 28:37
  that they are pursuing
• 28:38
  is presenting
• 28:40
  Democrats as independents,
• 28:42
  and,
• 28:42
  you know,
• 28:42
  look,
• 28:43
  I'm,
• 28:44
  I'm not gonna sugarcoat it.
• 28:45
  They're trying to lie to all the voters and tell them that they're not Democrats,
• 28:48
  right?
• 28:48
  This is happening in Nebraska.
• 28:50
  Uh,
• 28:50
  very,
• 28:50
  there's several states where this is happening.
• 28:52
  Nebraska is the most prominent though
• 28:54
  with,
• 28:54
  uh,
• 28:54
  Dan Osborne as the independent candidate who is just 100% just a Democrat,
• 28:58
  right?
• 28:58
  Like he's just a Democrat.
• 29:00
  He's a big union guy.
• 29:01
  He's just saying he's an independent so that there's a
• 29:04
  chance he has a chance to win in Nebraska because
• 29:06
  if he was saying he's a Democrat,
• 29:07
  the chances of him winning were very,
• 29:08
  very small,
• 29:09
  um,
• 29:10
  but when you look at something like Tom Cotton's race.
• 29:14
  Normally what you would see
• 29:15
  is a race that is in the 96,
• 29:17
  97,
• 29:18
  98% chance of cotton winning.
• 29:20
  There's always an outlier,
• 29:21
  right?
• 29:22
  There's always,
• 29:22
  we talk about this with the predictable constitution.
• 29:25
  Uh,
• 29:25
  the Fifth Amendment is time equals risk,
• 29:28
  right?
• 29:28
  Whenever you have a,
• 29:29
  a long time window,
• 29:30
  something weird can happen.
• 29:32
  So there's a reason why it's not 100% and why it's 98%.
• 29:36
  You have to allow for that type of,
• 29:38
  of risk,
• 29:39
  and there are
• 29:40
  probabilities,
• 29:41
  uh,
• 29:41
  that are,
• 29:42
  that need to be applied here.
• 29:43
  You can't just say it's a 100% chance,
• 29:45
  but
• 29:45
  the chance of,
• 29:46
  of cotton winning in this race in a Republican state like this,
• 29:49
  very,
• 29:49
  very
• 29:49
  high,
• 29:50
  and it was looking at that 98% for a while.
• 29:52
  But Haley Schaffner's had some good
• 29:54
  data that has come her way.
• 29:56
  For example,
• 29:56
  there's a poll that came out where she was pretty close.
• 29:58
  So we have the,
• 29:59
  um,
• 30:00
  well,
• 30:00
  I should show you this first.
• 30:01
  This is the uh Dem hopes.
• 30:03
  Democrats see rare signs of hope in solidly red Arkansas midterms.
• 30:07
  Now,
• 30:07
  the reason for this,
• 30:08
  and this is something that we explained,
• 30:10
  we have a whole Senate preview
• 30:11
  up on the site,
• 30:12
  PredictableShow.com,
• 30:14
  and we explain this in depth.
• 30:15
  The history of midterm elections,
• 30:17
  you probably know this at least on the surface,
• 30:19
  is really bad for the party in power.
• 30:22
  That is just,
• 30:23
  you know,
• 30:23
  the truth of it.
• 30:24
  Uh,
• 30:24
  usually when you have a president in power,
• 30:26
  especially when you have someone with a president,
• 30:28
  House,
• 30:28
  and Senate
• 30:29
  as it is right now,
• 30:30
  usually
• 30:31
  those parties do particularly poorly
• 30:33
  in the midterm elections,
• 30:34
  even when things are going relatively well.
• 30:36
  And of course we know the,
• 30:37
  the,
• 30:37
  the the polls right now are not particularly positive,
• 30:40
  uh,
• 30:41
  for Republicans in the,
• 30:42
  in the state of,
• 30:43
  uh,
• 30:43
  where we are and where we're going.
• 30:45
  So we expect some bad news for conservatives here in the midterms.
• 30:49
  The question is,
• 30:50
  is it going to be really,
• 30:51
  really bad?
• 30:51
  Are they gonna turn it around somehow?
• 30:53
  What's gonna happen?
• 30:54
  Um,
• 30:55
  Democrats,
• 30:55
  uh,
• 30:56
  looking for hope in,
• 30:57
  in Arkansas.
• 30:57
  They say because the annual Mount Nebo Chicken fry,
• 31:01
  which is a mainstay of Arkansas politics for generations,
• 31:05
  saw a break in tradition
• 31:06
  in election years,
• 31:07
  Democrats and Republicans usually rent two cabins
• 31:09
  as their headquarters for the day.
• 31:11
  This year,
• 31:11
  the Libertarian Party rented out.
• 31:15
  Rented out the Republican one,
• 31:17
  so.
• 31:18
  We're supposed to say that that's a hopeful sign for Democrats.
• 31:21
  Now look,
• 31:21
  some of the polling there has been concerning,
• 31:24
  uh,
• 31:24
  if you are a uh Republican or Tom Cotton supporter.
• 31:28
  Here's what the polls,
• 31:29
  the most recent polls look like in uh Arkansas.
• 31:32
  Um,
• 31:32
  you see,
• 31:33
  uh,
• 31:33
  I'm gonna focus on,
• 31:34
  uh,
• 31:35
  the two in the middle here.
• 31:36
  Hendricks College had a,
• 31:38
  uh,
• 31:38
  Schaffner actually leading this race by 347 to 44,
• 31:42
  and the 2040 strategy Group,
• 31:43
  which was a poll sponsored,
• 31:45
  paid for by Haley Schaffner,
• 31:47
  shows her,
• 31:48
  uh,
• 31:49
  up by or only down by 3.
• 31:52
  The more recent poll,
• 31:53
  JL Partners has Tom Cotton up by 16.
• 31:56
  We often will see these types of polls in years where
• 32:00
  the current is moving against one side or the other.
• 32:02
  In good Republican years,
• 32:04
  you can count on the fact that you will see a good poll
• 32:07
  for the Republican candidate in like New Jersey
• 32:10
  or maybe New York or maybe.
• 32:12
  Uh,
• 32:12
  Virginia,
• 32:13
  some of these states where,
• 32:14
  uh,
• 32:14
  that have moved more blue over the years,
• 32:17
  there's that like feeling of hope if you're a Republican.
• 32:19
  All of a sudden it seems like,
• 32:20
  oh gosh,
• 32:20
  I might be able,
• 32:21
  maybe they're gonna pull this one off this time and then,
• 32:23
  you know,
• 32:23
  without fail,
• 32:24
  usually at the end of the time,
• 32:26
  the people wind up coming home.
• 32:27
  Um,
• 32:28
  that is what
• 32:29
  seems to be happening in states we,
• 32:32
  we talked about,
• 32:32
  uh,
• 32:33
  some of the states,
• 32:33
  um,
• 32:34
  uh,
• 32:34
  you know,
• 32:35
  you saw it in,
• 32:36
  um,
• 32:37
  for example,
• 32:38
  Texas is an interesting example of this.
• 32:40
  What we're seeing right now is a,
• 32:42
  uh,
• 32:42
  in an area in Texas where,
• 32:43
  uh,
• 32:43
  in the Senate race,
• 32:45
  uh,
• 32:45
  Ken Paxton seems to be losing right now to James Tallarico.
• 32:48
  We will see if that
• 32:50
  continues.
• 32:50
  What we normally see in these cases
• 32:52
  are,
• 32:52
  uh,
• 32:53
  when you have a hard fought primary on one side of the election.
• 32:56
  Uh,
• 32:56
  the people who lost that primary
• 32:58
  get kind of angry for a while.
• 33:00
  They get kind of annoyed at the world,
• 33:01
  right?
• 33:01
  They're like,
• 33:02
  wait a minute,
• 33:02
  I didn't like that guy.
• 33:03
  I didn't want him to win the primary.
• 33:04
  I'm not voting for him.
• 33:06
  But think about that moment
• 33:08
  in November when you walk into a booth and you think about
• 33:11
  if you're a Republican,
• 33:12
  the Democrats controlling Congress,
• 33:14
  the Democrats controlling the Senate.
• 33:16
  Might be a scary thought to you,
• 33:18
  right?
• 33:18
  And even if you don't really love the candidate,
• 33:22
  a lot of times people wind up coming back home to uh where they normally are.
• 33:26
  And the reason why
• 33:28
  normally a race like this would be 98% or so for the Republicans.
• 33:31
  Can we show this,
• 33:32
  uh,
• 33:32
  race right now?
• 33:33
  Uh,
• 33:33
  this is Tom Cotton in Arkansas.
• 33:34
  This is what the markets look like.
• 33:36
  This is from Calci,
• 33:36
  one of the big prediction markets,
• 33:38
  and you don't see much movement.
• 33:39
  Honestly,
• 33:39
  these lines look pretty straight,
• 33:41
  uh,
• 33:42
  for a very long time.
• 33:43
  If you go back to,
• 33:44
  let's say April though,
• 33:45
  you'll see there's a peak there in April.
• 33:47
  Um,
• 33:48
  Tom Cotton is at 98.4% chance to win.
• 33:52
  Because of the poll
• 33:54
  that,
• 33:54
  uh,
• 33:54
  that I showed you here that has
• 33:56
  Haley Schofter being very competitive,
• 33:57
  it's,
• 33:58
  it's again,
• 33:59
  one poll,
• 34:00
  again,
• 34:00
  she's,
• 34:00
  she paid for the other 11 poll that shows this,
• 34:03
  and a more recent poll shows Tom Cotton up by 16 points.
• 34:07
  However,
• 34:07
  you see 98.4%
• 34:10
  chance for Tom Cotton to win.
• 34:11
  That has now dropped.
• 34:12
  Where are we now?
• 34:13
  Uh,
• 34:13
  if we look at this,
• 34:14
  uh,
• 34:14
  93.9%.
• 34:16
  Now,
• 34:17
  uh,
• 34:17
  this was,
• 34:17
  uh,
• 34:17
  if you go back just a little bit,
• 34:18
  it was even a little bit lower,
• 34:20
  I think,
• 34:20
  if you can kind of see what's the low number there cause I was buying it lower than 93%.
• 34:24
  You know,
• 34:24
  we're in the 92s,
• 34:26
  91.9%.
• 34:27
  I mean,
• 34:27
  91.9%,
• 34:29
  you're talking about
• 34:30
  the way this works
• 34:31
  is you purchase uh a share of Tom Cotton at let's say 92 cents.
• 34:35
  Um,
• 34:36
  so every
• 34:37
  share that you buy at 92 cents,
• 34:39
  you would get 8 cents profit on that.
• 34:41
  It's not a huge number,
• 34:42
  right?
• 34:42
  It doesn't certainly doesn't feel like,
• 34:44
  you know,
• 34:44
  uh,
• 34:45
  going to Vegas and spinning a wheel,
• 34:47
  right?
• 34:47
  You're talking about
• 34:48
  about 9 or 10% profit.
• 34:51
  On an investment of 92 cents,
• 34:53
  so,
• 34:54
  uh,
• 34:54
  you,
• 34:54
  you put in $92 you'd win $1 100 dollars,
• 34:57
  you'd win $8 on that.
• 34:58
  It doesn't sound like a lot of money,
• 35:00
  but it's a nice return
• 35:01
  and you're talking about 50 days
• 35:02
  again.
• 35:02
  I bring you back to where what your bank account
• 35:05
  pays you.
• 35:06
  Is your bank account paying you,
• 35:07
  uh,
• 35:08
  8% returns
• 35:09
  in 50 days in 7 weeks.
• 35:12
  My guess is no.
• 35:13
  Probably not.
• 35:14
  Probably not even close to that.
• 35:15
  The APR on,
• 35:16
  on,
• 35:16
  on this,
• 35:17
  you're talking about,
• 35:17
  you know,
• 35:18
  48,
• 35:19
  50%
• 35:20
  uh APR annual percentage rate.
• 35:22
  Um,
• 35:22
  we stack those gains,
• 35:24
  and one of the things we try to do is build our
• 35:25
  portfolio for November where there's gonna be a lot of these opportunities.
• 35:28
  Opportunities like this,
• 35:30
  however,
• 35:30
  tend to go away because,
• 35:33
  uh,
• 35:33
  the markets react to news and then they correct over a long period of time.
• 35:37
  And as polling comes out
• 35:38
  over this,
• 35:39
  and it doesn't seem like it's,
• 35:40
  uh,
• 35:40
  you know,
• 35:41
  that close of an election if that's the way this goes,
• 35:43
  uh,
• 35:43
  those numbers will start moving closer.
• 35:45
  To 100% again and maybe get it back up to that 98.4%.
• 35:49
  Look,
• 35:50
  any Republican
• 35:51
  is gonna have lower numbers right now
• 35:53
  than they typically would,
• 35:54
  and that's because of just the climate that we're dealing with.
• 35:57
  We're,
• 35:58
  we're looking at
• 35:59
  the,
• 35:59
  the data that points to Democrats having a favorable year.
• 36:03
  We can sit here and,
• 36:05
  you know,
• 36:05
  you can act in your own life,
• 36:06
  right,
• 36:07
  about what you're gonna do about that.
• 36:09
  You can,
• 36:09
  if you're a conservative,
• 36:10
  you can get out there,
• 36:11
  you can campaign hard,
• 36:12
  you can call people,
• 36:13
  you can,
• 36:13
  you can work the phones,
• 36:14
  you can do everything you can make every argument you can on social media
• 36:17
  to try to influence people,
• 36:18
  to change their mind
• 36:20
  and maybe move some votes,
• 36:21
  right?
• 36:21
  That's kind of the part of the American way.
• 36:23
  Another thing that you can do here is look for these opportunities
• 36:26
  and try to help yourself financially with them.
• 36:29
  They're out there.
• 36:29
  These are,
• 36:30
  uh,
• 36:30
  reg,
• 36:30
  by the way,
• 36:31
  is regulated by the CFTC,
• 36:33
  by the federal government.
• 36:33
  These are
• 36:34
  exchanges like,
• 36:35
  you know,
• 36:35
  kind of.
• 36:36
  Creating hog futures,
• 36:37
  right?
• 36:37
  Like it's that type of thing.
• 36:38
  It is under a lot of the same mechanisms
• 36:41
  that exist there.
• 36:43
  And
• 36:43
  instead of though,
• 36:44
  something,
• 36:44
  and you may very well like hogs and hog futures,
• 36:47
  you may know tons about hog,
• 36:49
  hogs and hog futures.
• 36:50
  I don't know anything about them,
• 36:51
  frankly.
• 36:52
  Uh,
• 36:52
  I have no accessibility to that at all.
• 36:54
  I do have
• 36:55
  information
• 36:55
  that I think helps me on these prediction markets
• 36:57
  and they've led to a long,
• 36:59
  uh,
• 36:59
  you know,
• 37:00
  run of success on them.
• 37:01
  I think
• 37:02
  it's something that if you are
• 37:04
  If you're like me
• 37:05
  and you're watching the first,
• 37:06
  you're watching Blaze TV,
• 37:07
  you're,
• 37:08
  uh,
• 37:08
  you're,
• 37:08
  uh,
• 37:09
  on,
• 37:09
  uh,
• 37:09
  you know,
• 37:10
  listening to talk radio,
• 37:11
  and you kind of think about these things all the time.
• 37:13
  These issues are important to you.
• 37:15
  You know these people,
• 37:16
  you know these players,
• 37:17
  you understand these elections.
• 37:18
  You're obsessed with news and politics like I am.
• 37:21
  If you're like that,
• 37:21
  there are tons of things that you can use that information.
• 37:24
  To actually improve,
• 37:26
  uh,
• 37:26
  your financial picture.
• 37:27
  And this is just one little,
• 37:28
  uh,
• 37:28
  example of this.
• 37:29
  Uh,
• 37:30
  we talked about some last week that were 50,
• 37:32
  60,
• 37:32
  70% profit margins.
• 37:34
  We're kinda going all over the board.
• 37:36
  I wanna show you some of these though too.
• 37:37
  That if you're not,
• 37:38
  if you're kind of risk averse,
• 37:39
  you're like,
• 37:39
  I don't wanna take a risk,
• 37:40
  that race looks way too close,
• 37:42
  you can look for uh opportunities
• 37:44
  like this one
• 37:45
  and take just a little bit of a profit.
• 37:47
  Uh,
• 37:47
  maybe it's not that much percentage-wise,
• 37:49
  but
• 37:50
  it's gonna beat your bank account by quite a bit probably.
• 37:52
  And in addition to that,
• 37:53
  it's gonna use the information that you kinda grow every single day as you read,
• 37:57
  as you study,
• 37:58
  uh,
• 37:58
  just your life experience
• 38:00
  and you know about these issues,
• 38:01
  you know about these markets.
• 38:02
  There are ways to take advantage of that
• 38:04
  and I think it's a really cool thing and it also
• 38:06
  helps everyone else understand what's really going on in the world,
• 38:08
  so
• 38:09
  Uh,
• 38:10
  join us at predictableShow.com,
• 38:11
  predictableShow.com.
• 38:13
  Got lots of information there,
• 38:14
  tons of stuff,
• 38:15
  tools to make this easy for you if you're just getting started.
• 38:18
  And,
• 38:18
  uh,
• 38:18
  stuff that goes very,
• 38:19
  very advanced.
• 38:20
  In fact,
• 38:20
  some of the biggest traders in the world are members
• 38:23
  of PredictableShow.com,
• 38:24
  people who have made literally millions and millions
• 38:27
  and millions of dollars on prediction markets.
• 38:30
  They're in like the chat rooms of PredictableShow.com
• 38:33
  talking with other people,
• 38:35
  uh,
• 38:35
  other traders,
• 38:36
  uh,
• 38:36
  who are looking at these markets and trying to,
• 38:38
  uh,
• 38:38
  make information,
• 38:39
  uh,
• 38:39
  get information to,
• 38:40
  to make a profit
• 38:42
  on these elections.
• 38:43
  And by the way,
• 38:43
  other things too.
• 38:44
  We have sports,
• 38:45
  we have,
• 38:45
  uh,
• 38:46
  culture.
• 38:47
  The Emmys are tonight.
• 38:48
  I don't know anything about these shows,
• 38:49
  frankly,
• 38:49
  so I don't have any positions on the Emmys right now.
• 38:51
  Uh,
• 38:52
  but you have the,
• 38:53
  you have the culture stuff,
• 38:54
  you have,
• 38:54
  uh,
• 38:55
  finance,
• 38:56
  you have,
• 38:56
  uh,
• 38:57
  when I say climate,
• 38:57
  I'm talking a lot of times about the electoral climate,
• 38:59
  but
• 39:00
  actual like weather and climate,
• 39:01
  uh,
• 39:02
  different markets like that.
• 39:04
  All this stuff is there.
• 39:05
  Uh,
• 39:05
  it's worth checking out even if you just go to kind of see the information and see,
• 39:08
  hey,
• 39:09
  what's,
• 39:09
  what do people really believe?
• 39:10
  Not what they're telling me on TV.
• 39:12
  What do they really believe?
• 39:13
  It's all up at predictableshow.com.
• 39:27
  Welcome back to Predictable with Stu.
• 39:29
  One of the things that,
• 39:30
  uh,
• 39:30
  kind of prediction markets are known for
• 39:33
  are,
• 39:33
  are the sports elements.
• 39:34
  And,
• 39:34
  you know,
• 39:34
  we'll,
• 39:35
  we'll spend some time talking.
• 39:36
  I love sports,
• 39:37
  uh,
• 39:37
  just so you know,
• 39:37
  I love the NFL,
• 39:38
  I love,
• 39:39
  uh,
• 39:39
  baseball,
• 39:40
  I love basketball.
• 39:40
  Those are the,
• 39:41
  the big three for me.
• 39:42
  Um,
• 39:43
  but you know,
• 39:44
  we don't spend tons and tons of time talking about sports,
• 39:46
  but it is something that people kind of understand,
• 39:48
  and it's an easy way to kind of frame this
• 39:50
  stuff if you've never looked at these things before,
• 39:52
  and I wanna kind of show you just a little bit about how
• 39:54
  these markets react to new information,
• 39:56
  and we'll use the NFL here kind of as a guiding example.
• 39:59
  Um,
• 40:00
  if you,
• 40:00
  uh,
• 40:00
  watch any of the games this weekend,
• 40:02
  you saw the Rams,
• 40:03
  uh,
• 40:04
  lost,
• 40:04
  uh,
• 40:04
  this week.
• 40:05
  They,
• 40:06
  uh,
• 40:06
  kind of,
• 40:07
  you know,
• 40:07
  what they made them fly to Australia,
• 40:09
  um.
• 40:10
  And,
• 40:10
  uh,
• 40:11
  and then they got smoked,
• 40:13
  uh,
• 40:13
  by San Francisco,
• 40:14
  uh,
• 40:15
  while they were out there.
• 40:16
  And like this is,
• 40:16
  you could see with these markets,
• 40:18
  um,
• 40:19
  let me see the Rams one if you will.
• 40:20
  Uh,
• 40:20
  you see the Rams sitting up there at about,
• 40:23
  I don't know,
• 40:24
  12.5 wins,
• 40:25
  and now it is lowered down to,
• 40:27
  what are we at?
• 40:27
  11 wins now.
• 40:29
  That keeps dropping.
• 40:31
  And you,
• 40:31
  you see the game,
• 40:33
  you can kind of see how it's flat for a long time as everyone looks at
• 40:35
  this and you spent all this time preparing and all this time like watching the,
• 40:38
  you know,
• 40:38
  all the transactions and if you're in a fantasy drafts,
• 40:41
  you're drafting players and all this,
• 40:43
  and everything stays pretty even there for a very long time.
• 40:45
  People are a little optimistic on the Rams.
• 40:47
  They have one loss and all of a sudden they're down,
• 40:49
  uh,
• 40:49
  to 10.9,
• 40:51
  uh,
• 40:51
  10.8 wins,
• 40:53
  uh,
• 40:53
  right now.
• 40:54
  Um,
• 40:54
  let me give you the Cowboys.
• 40:55
  Cowboys lost last night.
• 40:56
  Now I love that because I can't stand the Cowboys,
• 40:58
  and I want them to lose every night.
• 41:00
  I love seeing a chart that looks like that for the Dallas Cowboys,
• 41:03
  but
• 41:04
  they're still,
• 41:05
  uh,
• 41:05
  over favored by 9,
• 41:06
  about 9 wins,
• 41:07
  went from about 10 10.5 there
• 41:10
  down to.
• 41:11
  About a little bit over 9 wins as their projection for the season.
• 41:15
  So now the markets are saying,
• 41:16
  OK,
• 41:17
  look,
• 41:17
  we saw that first effort.
• 41:18
  We didn't think it was very good.
• 41:19
  We now think they're gonna probably more like 9 and 8 instead of 11 and 6.
• 41:23
  let's see,
• 41:24
  Chicago had a huge game,
• 41:25
  one of the biggest offensive performances,
• 41:27
  uh,
• 41:28
  in the last few years.
• 41:28
  They scored 59 points.
• 41:30
  You see
• 41:31
  this huge rise after the game
• 41:33
  and then a little bit of a fall off after that.
• 41:35
  Uh,
• 41:36
  let me give you the biggest loser of the week,
• 41:37
  by the way,
• 41:38
  in case you were curious,
• 41:39
  uh,
• 41:39
  the Chargers,
• 41:40
  uh,
• 41:40
  who everyone was very optimistic on,
• 41:42
  the LA Chargers dropped.
• 41:44
  Uh,
• 41:44
  they dropped,
• 41:45
  interesting,
• 41:45
  they're kind of bouncing back up here.
• 41:47
  They went from about 10.5 down to 8 wins and now bouncing up to a little bit over 9.
• 41:52
  The biggest winner of the week,
• 41:53
  uh,
• 41:53
  was the Jacksonville Jaguars.
• 41:55
  Jacksonville,
• 41:56
  uh,
• 41:56
  looked very impressive in their first win.
• 41:58
  But again,
• 41:58
  like,
• 41:58
  look at the way the markets are reacting.
• 42:00
  We saw this in several of these markets.
• 42:02
  It shoots up and then it comes back down.
• 42:04
  It's one of the things we do all the time in all these markets.
• 42:06
  We're constantly looking
• 42:08
  to play against the hype.
• 42:10
  Hype is something that affects these markets dramatically.
• 42:14
  You see markets numbers shoot up and shoot back down.
• 42:16
  The sports markets are the most liquid.
• 42:18
  They move around a lot,
• 42:19
  and that's why they're good examples of this.
• 42:21
  But
• 42:21
  this happens all the time with all sorts of different things,
• 42:24
  you know.
• 42:25
  People,
• 42:25
  they the markets react quickly to one poll.
• 42:27
  If you can kind of look through that poll and say,
• 42:29
  wait a minute.
• 42:30
  The,
• 42:30
  the,
• 42:30
  the,
• 42:30
  the candidate that did well in that poll is the one that paid for it.
• 42:33
  It's it's their poll.
• 42:34
  I,
• 42:34
  I,
• 42:34
  I do I,
• 42:35
  should I trust this?
• 42:36
  You can kind of go against that hype and
• 42:38
  you can wind up profiting in these elections and understand
• 42:41
  what the media is,
• 42:42
  is selling you.
• 42:42
  That media diet,
• 42:43
  not necessarily the most healthy one.
• 42:45
  You can kind of cut through that information and understand these markets better.
• 42:48
  All right,
• 42:48
  back in a second.
• 42:58
  If you missed the news,
• 42:59
  we are on
• 43:00
  the first TV.
• 43:02
  Yes,
• 43:02
  we are excited about it.
• 43:03
  If you have DirecTV,
• 43:05
  if you,
• 43:05
  we're on channel 347,
• 43:07
  if you have,
• 43:07
  uh,
• 43:08
  Fubo
• 43:09
  or AT&T Uverse or Pluto TV or so many different options
• 43:14
  for you to check out Predictable with Stu weeknights 9 p.m.
• 43:16
  Eastern is,
• 43:16
  is our time on
• 43:18
  DirecTV.
• 43:18
  We also uh have as well
• 43:20
  Blaze TV which we love as well.
• 43:23
  Lots of great people there at both places actually.
• 43:25
  Uh,
• 43:26
  great lineups and,
• 43:27
  uh,
• 43:27
  of course,
• 43:27
  uh,
• 43:28
  everywhere,
• 43:28
  uh,
• 43:28
  on podcast is a great way to listen.
• 43:30
  If you're,
• 43:30
  I,
• 43:30
  I like to listen to podcasts a lot too.
• 43:33
  I don't know,
• 43:33
  maybe I'm old school,
• 43:34
  but I like going to the podcast app.
• 43:35
  I like sometimes just listening to podcasts.
• 43:37
  Go there and subscribe.
• 43:38
  We put the shows up all the time.
• 43:39
  We have extra content that goes up there as well.
• 43:42
  And of course,
• 43:42
  you can join us on predictableshow.com
• 43:45
  where we have the shows posted.
• 43:46
  We have uh news stories and kind of
• 43:48
  a bunch of different stuff about prediction markets,
• 43:49
  where those ops.
• 43:50
  Opportunities are
• 43:51
  every pick that I have,
• 43:52
  every position that I have in prediction markets listed at predictableshow.com,
• 43:55
  over 300 of them.
• 43:57
  Our new predictable,
• 43:58
  uh,
• 43:59
  election model,
• 43:59
  it's called the PMC,
• 44:00
  the Predictable Market,
• 44:01
  uh,
• 44:01
  midterm consensus
• 44:03
  that is up there
• 44:03
  starting today as well.
• 44:04
  So go check it out at predictableshow.com.
• 44:07
  Thanks.