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NFL Week 4 BEST BETS | Extremely Tough Week · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: Three-team parlay turned to dust in your head. Now you
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: stare at the chips like they made you this mad.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Your name still means something to somebody for sure. Put
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: the glass down, baby.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Look at me now Hold on, hold on.
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: Not tonight, not now.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out That
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: fellow fights hard But he don't get the crown Hold on,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you, Toadstool Sports.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: This will be the NFL Week 4 edition. This is
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: the hardest board that I've seen so far this year
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: to handicap, so I mean, I really liked the board
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: last week, and that didn't go well, although I got
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: 11 picks right against the spread. Of course, all the
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: ones that I got wrong basically were in my contest
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: entry and were plays that I gave out on the show,
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: although the plays on the show went one and two,
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: but when you really think you're seeing the week well,
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: that's not what you want. Of course, the Chargers failing
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: to cover was just absolute bullshit. Let's get into it, man.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Let's get into this week. Is it week four? Am
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: I getting that right? I think I am, right? um
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: I feel like I'm like I don't know hitting deja
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: vu or something here I guess we don't have any
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: teams on by yet until uh week five I suppose
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: I feel like I already did like I feel like
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: I already did this show but I didn't right I
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: don't know what's going on here man uh let's get
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: into it I'm just gonna run through this uh I'm
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: treading very carefully this week I'm gonna give out two
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: plays and hopefully they're the they're actually the strongest two
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: uh we do have London action starting with Indianapolis and
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: Washington playing in London. What else is new? Not at Wembley,
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Way too many Europe games, man.
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: It's all fucking bullshit. Washington did play in London last year,
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: and I believe we lost on the show on that
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: game by a half point when it went into overtime.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: I believe we had Washington in that game against Miami,
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: and wound up taking a loss there. Feels like a long,
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: long time ago. Both teams, I think, might have actually
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: played in Europe last year, though, if I'm not mistaken.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. I mean, I don't think either
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: team has that much of a travel advantage here one
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: way or the other. I'm feeling this really feels like
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: deja vu. Like, my mind is so all over the place.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: It feels like I already talked about all these games.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: I guess I did not. But I think Washington is
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: in the worst spot here, though, if you just look
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: at the situation. They're coming off that big upset last week.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: It was their first win, which we'll give them credit
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: for their first win. And sometimes when a team gets
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: that first win, yeah, it gets that monkey off their back.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: They have the positive momentum moving forward. But the problem
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: is it was a big upset win over Seattle. That
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: was the one winner I gave out on the show
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: last week. But if you look into it, it was misleading.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: Seattle outgained Washington by nearly 200 yards in the game.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: So Washington did not legitimately win this game. There were
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: three turnovers from the Seattle side that really hurt them
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: in the game. Seattle actually lost the possession battle, but
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: they did win the yardage battle and the first down
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: battle by a lot. So this game was not really
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: what it looked like on the scoreboard. I'm glad we
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: got the win, but mistakes are part of that mental
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: lapse that you're handicapping here. So the fact that Seattle
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: made mental mistakes, that was part of the handicap here,
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: even though it is a fluky thing. The other thing
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: about this game is it was the injured player theory
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: for Washington. So Mariota was their starting quarterback after Daniels
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: went down. First game with Mariota, my feeling is that
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: that team usually steps up their game, that first game
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: of the backup QB. But then if they get a
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: big win in that game, the next part of the
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: injured player theory is that next game, they can take
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a step back because they feel like, okay,
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: you know, we can win with this guy. Even though
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: I know Mariota's played for them a lot because Daniels
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: keeps getting hurt, whatever, and he knows the system. So
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: it's not that bad of a downgrade for Washington. But
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: even so, I think Washington does take a little bit
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: of a step back in that second game off of
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: the big win. You know, you kind of relax like, okay,
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: we can win without our start or whatever. And on
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: the flip side of that, by the way, it was Darnold's.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: first game back from injury. So it was a reverse
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: injured player theory for Seattle where I feel like the
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: chemistry kind of, you know, might not be there necessarily
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: with the first time your quarterback comes back. And it
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: might be a little bit of an issue, you know,
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: with like the team might get a little bit complacent
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: is what I'm trying to say here. But anyway, we're
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: handicapping Washington here right now in this game. I don't
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: think it's a very good spot for them. Now, Indianapolis
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: is also coming off a big game. They just beat
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: Houston and they got their first win of the season
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: as well. Indianapolis did. That's a big win. No doubt
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: about it. But the Texans have not played well so far.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: They are 0-3. So maybe that win has a little
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: bit less luster on it. And it looked ugly, right?
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: Like Washington's win looks way better, like to the public eye, right?
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: The public's not going to care that Indianapolis won a low-scoring, ugly,
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: crappy game against a winless Texan team, whereas Washington won
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: this high-scoring game against the Super Bowl champions. That's going
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: to look way better in the public's eye. So I'm
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: going to be leaning towards Indianapolis here. Now, Indianapolis, yeah,
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: it's a big win, no doubt, against the Texans, but
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: it was also not a misleading win. They actually did
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: out-gain the Texans. in the game. And in fact, it
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: was Indianapolis that was negative three in the turnover department
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: and they still won. So that tells you they did
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: win legitimately in this game. They're going to have to
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: fix those, uh, turnovers though. And I believe they did lose, um,
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: Indianapolis is down. I think one of their, uh, wide
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: receivers again here, let me say, um, I believe it's Pierce, right?
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: Or Keenan Allen, I guess, is going to be out too.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Pierce is on IR. So yeah, Indianapolis
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: is down some of their wide receivers. Washington's a bad defense, man.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: Like really bad. I think worse than Indianapolis. So I
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: think the lean is Indianapolis here. I think it's a
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: better spot. Washington does have a divisional game next, by
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: the way, I believe against the Giants, although I know
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: it's not the Giants with Jackson Dart anymore. So that
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: has less appeal as well. But even so, Uh, Indianapolis
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: only plays the Steelers next, which I don't really think
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: is much of a look ahead. I'm disagreeing with the
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: market a lot this week, but this is not a
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: game where I'm disagreeing with it. Washington has 55% of
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: the tickets, 66% of the cash on Indy. Indy opened
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: a three point favor, but if you want Indy, you
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: kind of missed the boat on this. It's already up
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: to four and a half. Now I'm still going to
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: lean towards Indy though, laying the points, although it does
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: seem a little bit crazy, but the public is definitely
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: not going to want them. Um, Just seeing these teams,
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: seeing Indy look real ugly so far, the public is
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: not going to lay points like that. And yeah, it
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: is true that Indy has not won a game by
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: that margin yet this year. That is true. But I
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: think they're the right side in that game. That would
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: be my opinion. That's NFL Network at 9.30 a.m. Eastern
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: because it's one of the stupid London games. You've got
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: to make sure you're awake and you get your fantasy
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: lineup set and whatever. 1 p.m. slate, we have New
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: England at Buffalo. Buffalo, I mean, they're coming off a
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: bad game as a big favor, and a lot of
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: times I do want to look towards that team to
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: bounce back after a bad game like that. As a
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: big favor, Buffalo still wound up covering somehow against the Chargers.
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: Just total bullshit, man. The Chargers were winning most of
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: the game. The Chargers just kept failing in the red zone,
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: and Harbaugh made some really bizarre decisions, like going for
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: it on fourth and 10, only down four with six
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: minutes to go at their own 40. Makes absolutely no sense.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: Like Chargers defense have played well during the game. You're
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: just going to hand Josh Allen the football at your
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: 40 yard line. So stupid, dude.
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: Whatever. Whatever.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: But Buffalo coming off a scare, normally I would like that. And,
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: of course, we remember Buffalo lost in a highly publicized
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: primetime game last year against the Patriots here in Buffalo.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: So you could make the argument it's kind of a
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: revenge spot for Buffalo here. And Buffalo's going to want
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: to beat New England most likely after New England won
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: this division last year. However, New England's been playing like
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: such ass that I don't actually think Buffalo's the right
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: side here, even though I think both teams are going
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: to be motivated here. Buffalo's already got a big divisional
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: lead here, even though they haven't played any division games yet.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: So this game will matter, but still, I think Buffalo
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: might relax a little bit, and they maybe look too
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: good so far at 3-0, whereas nobody's going to want
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: the Patriots with the way they've looked so far. And
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: by the way, it is still true that Buffalo went
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: into New England and beat New England later in the
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: season last year. So you could make an argument it's
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: revenge for New England here, because New England... New England
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: lost the last game they played against Buffalo last year.
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: But really, I think the handicap here is New England's
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: coming off one of the worst losses that you'll see.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: They lost 35 to 6 to Jacksonville so nobody's gonna
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: want them and yeah Drake Mays been awful there's no
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: doubt about that I think he has like 10 turnovers
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: already only one touchdown and like six interceptions he's been
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: awful but That's something you can clean up, man. You
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: can fix mistakes like that. It's a mental thing a
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: lot of times. New England actually outgained Jacksonville in that game.
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: So you want to talk about a misleading result? Statistically,
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: New England didn't outplay Jacksonville, even though they did outgain them.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: But still, they did not lose that game 35-6 statistically.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? The stat sheet will tell
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: you that this game was a lot closer than the
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: final score indicated. So I think New England's an undervalued team.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: coming into this one. And the other thing is you
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: can kind of just market read this where the number's
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: just sitting at seven, six and a half all week.
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: And the public's on Buffalo, 74% of tickets on them.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: Although 87% of the cash also on Buffalo, but I'm
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: not really buying that cash disparity. I think what we're
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: looking at here is Buffalo getting a lot of public
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: action here and the line has not moved. And in
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: the NFL, a lot of times the books will move
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: that number up to try to kill teasers. But in
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: this case, they haven't done that. And you know they're
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: going to get a lot of teasers on Buffalo this
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: week to just win the game. It looks really easy
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: to tease Buffalo down. By the way, I forgot to mention,
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: a good teaser this week would have been Cleveland teased
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: up from being a 2.5-point underdog, teased them up to 8.5.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: That would have been a really good teaser leg with
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: the fact that I like Cleveland anyway in that game.
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: And it was a low total. That's what you want
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: with these teasers. You want to go through. the key
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: number of three and seven. So I don't really do
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: much with teasers, but I probably should have mentioned that. But,
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: of course, it's a two-team six-point teaser is the only
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: teaser that is advantageous, and you have to find a partner,
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: like another leg. And obviously I'm not recommending Buffalo as
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: a teaser leg here. And you're not going through the
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: key number of seven because you're only on seven here
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: or six and a half. But my lean in this
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: game would be to take the points with New England
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: plus the seven here. And I think you can make
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: the argument New England's the better defense here. I know
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: that sounds really crazy, but Buffalo's defense has not been good, dude.
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: That's Buffalo's weak point is their defense. And I think
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: New England has actually been decent defensively here. So New
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: England might be able to kind of muck this game
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: up a little bit and hang around just with that
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: being the case as well. So, yeah, I would lean
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: New England here. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: I don't know why people continue to come back and
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: listen to me when I'm getting every fucking thing wrong.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: All right, next game is one of my actual bets.
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: Nobody's going to like this one, I don't think, but
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: we're going to take the New York Jets plus three
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: and a half here against the Chicago Bears, even though
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: I believe we're going to be fading my man Tyson
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: Bajent in this one, and I like Bajent, but really
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: the handicap is the situation here. Like, The public is
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: still going to be on the Bears. The public have
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: been high on the Bears since last year. They were
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: high on them after they scored 59 to open the
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: season against the Panthers. Public had a brief moment where
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: they jumped off the Bear train after they had that
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: horrible loss to the Vikings 9-3. But now they're going
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: to be right back on the Bears train, man, because
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: the public wants nothing to do with the Jets, basically, ever.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: And the Bears looked awesome on Monday night, right? Case
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: Keenum was in there. as their quarterback. And, you know,
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: I talked about that game. I had the lean correct
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: with the Bears plus the points there. I didn't think
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: they were going to win by 20 points, 27 to 7. But,
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: you know, it was another injured player theory. It's what
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: I talk about time and time again. First game with
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: the injured quarterback, the team usually steps up their game
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: and usually get a lot of value on that team.
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: The Bears are a big home underdog in that game. Well,
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: three and a half point underdog in that game. And
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: what happened there? Well, they looked awesome. Everybody knows the
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: Eagles are a pretty good team, and the Bears just, like,
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: murdered them, basically, on the scoreboard, at least, 27-7. So
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: everybody's going to want the Bears after that. But what
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: do I always say? Again, like I just said with Washington,
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: the second part of the injured player theory is if
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: the team does really well in that first game with
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: the injured player... They tend to take their foot off
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: the gas in the next game and think, okay, we
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: can do this. And it's going to be like, well,
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: if we can beat Philadelphia, then of course we're going
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: to be able to beat New York, right? That's going
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: to be the feeling amongst the Bears, amongst the public,
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: amongst everyone, right? Because everybody knows the Eagles are better
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: than the Jets, but this is the type of situation
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: you do not want to play Chicago because they're going
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: from a home underdog where the public didn't want them
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: to now being a home favorite where the public is
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: on them. That flip week to week is something you
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: look for in the NFL, and you want to fade
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: that because usually it's a little bit of an overreaction.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: So I don't like that. It will be Tyson Bajan.
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: And while I do think he's better than Case Keenum,
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: I think he has more talent. I actually like Bajan
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: a lot. I'm a fan. I think he's good. I
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: think he's better than Williams, to be honest. I still
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: do not like the spot for the Bears at all here.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: And this is about the spot, okay? I know they're
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: switching quarterbacks here. Bajan does know the system. In my opinion,
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: he is an upgrade from Case Keenum as well. Maybe
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: I'd prefer a little bit of Keenum got the job
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: again here, but I just don't really care. This is
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: all about the spot. I don't consider this to be
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: another injured player theory here. I still consider this to
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: be the game after the injured player theory game, right,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: where you're still playing a backup quarterback here. And worst
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: news for the Bears, by the way, this is a
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: sandwich spot because look who they play next.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: Even though it's a team that's not playing well right now,
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: the Green Bay Packers, that's like the Bears' number one rival, dude.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: Bears and Packers, biggest rival in the NFC North, biggest rivalry.
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: Those teams have a lot of history. They do not
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: like each other. That's a big game, man. So I
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: think the Bears could look right past the Jets here.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: Jets are sitting at 1-2, but they've actually been not
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: too bad here. The Jets almost beat the Packers, and
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: were hanging in that game against the Lions last week, too.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: And while normally I would not want a team that's
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: playing their third road game in four weeks, which, by
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: the way, I believe that is also the case with Indy,
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: I think. Is that right? Oh, no, Indy's playing a
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: neutral side game. What was I looking at then? Is
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: it New England? Let me see. Yeah, it's New England.
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: New England's also playing a third game in four weeks.
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: Third road game in four weeks, so... That is a
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: little bit of a concern with these teams. It is
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: a concern with the Jets as well, but this is
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: an easy travel spot, though, okay? They probably did not
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: go home, I would guess. I'd have to look to
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: make sure, but if they're traveling just from Detroit to Chicago,
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: that's an easy travel spot. And while normally I would
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: not want to play on a team like the Jets,
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: where they just came close as an underdog last time,
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: a fairly big underdog, a touchdown underdog at Detroit, normally
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: I would not want to play on the Jets after that,
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: but This is a horrible spot for the Bears. I
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: think the Jets will still show up for this game.
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: And the other thing I like about this is Geno
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: Smith has some of the best quarterback numbers in the
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: NFL against one deep coverage, basically, right? I think is
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: what it is. And that's what the Bears play the
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: majority of the time. Basically, they have, you know, like...
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: One guy in deep, like a cover one, basically, I
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: think is what it really is. The Bears play a
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: lot of that. Whatever the Bears are doing with their secondary,
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: that scheme that they run like over 60% of the time,
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: Geno Smith has like the best quarterback numbers in the
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: NFL this year so far against that specific type of defense.
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: So I think Geno Smith actually has a really good
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: matchup here. It's a Bears defense that's not good anyway.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: The Jets are the better defense. And you know, I
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: like that too. The better defense getting points. That's another
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: reason to play the Jets here. So I like it.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: This has enough to it to make the play. 61%
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: of tickets and 52% of the cash on the Bears.
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: So the Bears are the public side. The money is
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: not really coming in on the Bears here. So the
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: market read agrees with this. It's not a high total
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: either in the low 40s. So underdog a little bit
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: better when it's a low total like that. We'll take
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: the Jets. You know me with these ugly underdogs, man.
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: But I don't think the Jets are that hideous of
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: a team, to be honest. They've been a competitive team
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: so far this year. I think they're a little bit
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: of an undervalued team until further notice right now. Because
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: sitting at one and two, they still don't look good.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: But they haven't played that poorly. And I believe they
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: played fairly well statistically against the Lions as well. And
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: if you look at the Bears game against the Eagles,
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: by the way, Yes, the Bears did out-game the Eagles,
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: but the Eagles also committed three turnovers in the game.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: So while the Bears did win the game statistically, the
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: result was still skewed because the Eagles kept turning it over.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: Three turnovers. If you remember correctly, there was one drive
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: where the game was still in reach for the Eagles,
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: and Jalen Hurts got hurt briefly, and they took him
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: out of the game briefly. And the Eagles went with
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: Andy Dalton, and they were like right near the goal line,
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: and they stalled out, and I think they wound up
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: not scoring, I'm pretty sure. So that really fucked up
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: the Eagles in that game too. I'm not saying they
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: would have won if that didn't happen, but that was
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: just another thing that happened to the Eagles in that
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: game that, you know, Chicago kind of lucked out a
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: little bit when that happened. Maybe the game would have
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: been different if the Eagles scored there. You never know.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, your mental state can change. Alright, Jacksonville at Cincinnati.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: You know what I'm going to think about this game already. Now,
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: I have some opinions that I don't love. There are
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: some games where I'm disagreeing with the market really strongly.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: We have not hit any of those yet. We're hitting
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: one next, by the way, after this one, but this
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: is another one where I do agree with the market.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: so I'm highly unlikely to change my pick on this
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: and my pick-em pools and whatever. You know what I'm
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: going to do with this. I already talked about it.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: Jacksonville just beat the Patriots by a ton. Jacksonville's put
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: up over 30 points in two of their three games.
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: Everyone's in love with Jacksonville, man. The public loves Jacksonville.
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: It seems crazy to think about that when I think
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: the Bengals probably have the better offense here. Even though
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: Jacksonville does have the better defense, so I will admit,
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: I think Jacksonville's the better defense getting points in this game.
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: A lot of times I do look that way, but
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to be looking that way in this game, man.
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: Jacksonville's 0-1 on the road already, although yes, they were
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: winning most of that game against the Broncos. But still,
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: we're looking at last week. Jacksonville destroyed the Patriots. Everybody
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: knows the Patriots made the Super Bowl last year. That
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: win looks really good for Jacksonville. But I already showed
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: you the box score. The Patriots actually out-caned Jacksonville in
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: the game by two yards. So Patriots were minus three
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: in turnovers. That game was not what it looked like
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: on the scoreboard, okay? On the scoreboard, it should have
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: been like a close win for Jacksonville. So it was
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: a very misleading result for Jacksonville. It looks like a
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: really good win. where I don't really think it was.
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: Now Jacksonville's going on the road here, and while I
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: know the Bengals did beat them last year here at home,
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: and I believe the Bengals wound up pulling some bullshit
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: cover out of their ass in that game last year,
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: if I remember correctly. I think Jacksonville 3.5 might have
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: even been one of my plays, if I remember correctly.
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: I think the.
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: Bengals should have lost that game, and they somehow pulled
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: a four-point win out of their ass in that one.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: I still don't think that's really much of a revenge
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: spot for Jacksonville. Yeah, they might remember going to Cincinnati
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: and losing last year, but whatever, man. I just don't
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: think that's that big of a motivating factor here. The
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: revenge gets overstated. The revenge that really matters is when
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: you're playing the team that knocked you out of the playoffs.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: The team that eliminated you, the team that ended your
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: season last year, you're playing them for the first time.
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: That's the type of revenge that really matters here. That's
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: not what we're looking at here. And also, Cincinnati didn't
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: look that good last week, right? They lost to the Steelers,
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: and that's going to look even worse now that the
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: Steelers just lost to the Browns on Thursday night. So
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: I think the public is going to be a little
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: bit off of Cincinnati here. But that was a tough
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: divisional matchup, man. I liked the Steelers in that one.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Steelers got the job done. My concern is that maybe
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: that was considered to be a big game, though. I
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: don't like teams coming off close divisional games like that
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: a lot of times, so I don't think I really
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: want to put this on my card or anything, but
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: I'm going to lean towards the Bengals in this one,
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: and the money is definitely agreeing with that. 60% of
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: tickets on Jacksonville, so they're the public side, but Cincinnati's
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: a slight favorite here. 74% of the cash on Cincinnati.
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's a two, two-and-a-half point favorite. And a lot of
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: times when it's a price in that range, I don't
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: really like playing the favorite because it looks like, Oh,
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: it's under a field goal. Like it might be too
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: easy to play that team. But when the public is
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: on the other side of that game, it's not one
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: of those games where I consider it being a number
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: that looks too easy to play. Right. Cause the public
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: doesn't even want Cincinnati, even though they're below a field goal.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: So I like Cincinnati in that game. Um, Yes, that's right.
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: Andy Dalton threw a pick in the end zone. Correct.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know why I was thinking it was a
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: turnover on downs. Wayne, what's up? Yeah, I think you're right.
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: It was a pick in the end zone. Uh, so yeah,
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: likely if a Hertz was not hurt at that time, uh,
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: they likely would not have turned it over at the
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: very least. All right. Um, Arizona and New York giants.
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: This is a game where I'm disagreeing with the market
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: read strongly. Um, If I stick to my guns on
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: this one, my instinct on this has me leaning to
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: the Giants here. This is a spot where Arizona is
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: playing a third road game in four weeks. But not
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: only that, but this is the first time they're leaving
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: the Pacific time zone, basically, where they played once at home. Arizona,
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, I still basically consider that to be the
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: Pacific time zone. So this is going to be their
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: first time not doing that. They have to go all
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: the way east, which I think is a little bit
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: difficult for these West Coast teams. Although, you know, I
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: always say the East Coast team going west for a
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: night game is worse. But still, it's not exactly good
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: for a West Coast team to have to go east
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: like this. And look at what Arizona's coming off of.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: They just played a pretty good game against the 49ers, man,
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: where they were 7.5 underdogs in this game. when it
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: closed at least, and Arizona was down 17 in the
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: second half, and they came all the way back to
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: within three in the fourth quarter before they kind of faltered,
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: and they were actually back within two points with a
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: couple minutes to go in the game. So Arizona played
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: a really tough game against a divisional foe, and you
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: know I talk about this. Although Arizona actually did, you know,
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: statistically it looked pretty good that they dominated the time
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: of possession in that game, so that's good for Arizona,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: but they did get out-yarded in the game by quite
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: a bit by San Francisco, but either way you look
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: at it, I see it as Arizona's coming off a
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: huge divisional game as an underdog where they almost pulled
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: off the upset, and you know I look for teams
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: to be flat after that. Plus, they're having to go
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: all the way east for this. So I don't like
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: Arizona in this one, man. I do not. I think
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: Arizona looked really good in that loss, and that's the
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: type of team I want to fade as well. Whereas
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: the Giants, what I always say, they looked really bad
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: in a win last week. The Giants, you know, without
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: Jackson Dart, what did they do? They had Jameis Winston
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: in there, and they beat the lowly Titans 12-7. Nobody's
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: going to like that result, right? And I, you know,
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: I do talk about how that second game with the
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: injured player, I usually don't like a team in that spot.
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: So yes, that is a negative for the Giants. After
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: they won a game in the injured player theory spot
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: last week, yes, they were able to win with Jameis
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: Winston there. And that's usually the game where the team
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: steps it up a bit. usually that team does have
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a step back in the next game.
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: And yes, I do realize this is not that big
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: of a game for the giants. They do face Washington next,
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: which is a bigger game, but the Cardinals play the, uh,
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: I believe they're playing the Seahawks next, right? Let me see.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: Oh no, they're playing the lions. My mistake. That's still
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: a pretty big game though. The lions are one of
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: the best teams in the NFC. So that still could
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: be a look ahead for Arizona there. Either way. I
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: think the giants are the right side in this game. Um,
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: I don't feel strongly enough about it to put it
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: on my card or anything, and the money is completely
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: disagreeing with me on this. Although Arizona does look like
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: they're the somewhat public side too, which I did expect.
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: 60% of the tickets on them, but 85% of the
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: cash also on them. And the favorite flipped in this game.
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: Giants open one and a half, and now so much
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: money is coming in on Arizona that it's all the
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: way up to two and a half on Arizona. But
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: I think if it hits three, I think you will
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: see some money come back in towards the Giants here
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: just on... a pure numbers outlook. You know what I mean?
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: Like getting three, it's a key number. So some money
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: will come in on the Giants if people have the
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: ability to get plus three. And that is what I
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: would do if I was going to play this game.
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: I would try to see if it gets to three
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: and take the points with the Giants in that one.
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: But I don't feel strongly enough about it. I'm disagreeing
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: with the market in that one, which I don't really like.
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: I told you a lot of these games are tough
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: to figure out, man. Rams at Philadelphia. The Rams are
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: coming off a Sunday night game, a tough game and
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: mile high. And a lot of times I do look
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: to fade a team coming off a game like that.
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: But I don't think the Rams are going to overlook
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: the Eagles, man. So I think the Rams will show
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: up for this. However, the Rams have had difficulty in
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia recently, although last year really pisses me off because
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: the Rams, they were either one of my plays or
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: they were at least one of my picks in my
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: contest that I was in. The Rams at the Eagles.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: And if you remember, the Rams were kicking a field goal,
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: which would have, I believe, been a game winner if
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: they made it at the end of the game. Had
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: the Rams like plus four and a half or something.
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: And instead it got blocked and returned the other way
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: for a touchdown for the Eagles. That's the only way
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: that the Eagles are going to cover that number was
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: to block the field goal. and return it for a
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: touchdown on literally the last play of the game, and
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: that's what happened, and the Eagles won by six, it
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: was complete fucking, or yeah, five or six, I forget,
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: it was complete fucking bullshit, though, yeah, just such horse shit, dude,
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: but the Rams, you know, they lost in the playoffs
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: to the Eagles, the year prior to that, although that
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: was a weird, like kind of snow game, but the
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: Rams did play well in both games. I will give
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: them that both games are competitive, but there are things
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: that I don't like about the Rams, uh, as well.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: Like I said, they're coming off a big game against Denver. Um,
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: Things that I do like, though, they outgained Denver by
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: over 200 yards in this game. So even though the
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: Rams lost this game, they were winning the game 16-0
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: at halftime, and then somehow they fell apart, and they
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: still never trailed until really late in the fourth quarter
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: when they threw a pick six. Stafford threw a pick six,
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: and that was the first time, I believe, that Denver
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: took the lead in the game. And then the Rams
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: still took the lead back after that, by the way,
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: and then they lost anyway after that. But the Rams
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: played way better in this game than it looked. So
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: that is one positive for the Rams coming into this
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: game this week is that the Rams completely dominated this
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: game against Denver. It was a very misleading result that
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: the Rams lost that game. They totally dominated the yardage. However,
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: I still kind of leave Philly in this one, though,
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: because Philly, we just saw what they did, right, on
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: Monday night. And I know it's a quick turnaround time,
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: and I just use that as a reason to fade
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: the Bears, a quick turnaround time. Bears are staying at home, though.
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: But still, I think when you're staying at home off
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: a big win, you're listening to the press, and it
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: makes you more overconfident. That's what I think is going
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: to happen with the Bears. Now, Philadelphia, though, they looked
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: horrible on Monday night, okay? And I like to play
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: on teams that look horrible on Monday night. They're coming
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: back home.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: Yes, they have to travel with one fewer day of rest,
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: but coming back home, it's easy. You know, it's not
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: like returning home from a road trip like I talk
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: about in other sports because you have so few games
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: in the NFL. The return home spot isn't really a
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: thing in the NFL. Philly just looks so bad on
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: Monday night, dude, that usually when a team looks that
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: bad in a very public game like that, oh, my God,
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: they lost 27-7 to Case Keenum. Maybe this Philly team's
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: not that good. That's what the public's going to be saying.
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: So I like Philly in this one. I don't feel
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: strongly enough about it because I think there are some
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: Some reasons to like the Rams here as well. The
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: Rams look like they're kind of public, but the money
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: is also coming in on them. They got 66% of tickets,
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: 80% of the cash on them. And that line has
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: gone up from basically two and a half through the
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: key number three to three and a half. So that
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: is a pretty key move on the Rams. So there
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: has been some real money driving that line on the
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: Rams up through that key number. So it looks like
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: the real money is on the Rams in this game
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: to some extent, but maybe at the three and a half,
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: it'll start coming back on the Philly side. I think
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: I need Philly, man. I don't know if I'm going
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: to change any of these opinions here, but like I said,
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: I'm disagreeing with the market in a lot of these
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: games this week, and I don't love it. That's why
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: I'm treading really lightly with my plays as well because
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: most of these games that I'm disagreeing with the market,
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: there are some reasons to agree with the market as well.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean?
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: Even though I disagree, I think there are more reasons
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: to disagree, but it's games that I could see arguments
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: for both sides. All right. Green Bay and Tampa Bay.
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: What do we do with this game? I see arguments
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: for both sides in this one, too. Green Bay looked
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: really bad on Thursday night. They lost horribly to the Falcons,
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: although we know that the Falcons' offense is better with
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: Pennix in there. I mean, that's obvious, okay? So that
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: wasn't the Falcon team that we saw the first two weeks,
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: but still, Green Bay looks really ugly coming off that
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: loss to the Falcons. Green Bay didn't play that well
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: against the Jets either. However, in week one, Green Bay
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: actually dominated the Vikings yardage-wise, and that was one of
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: the most misleading results of the year. The fact they
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: somehow lost that game by 17 with a 200-yard edge
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: in the yardage. I don't get that. So I think
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: Green Bay's better than people think they are right now,
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: and they have extra rest here, right? Coming off a
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: real ugly game that everybody saw on Thursday. A lot
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: of times I do like to play on those teams
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: to bounce back after a game like that. The problem is,
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: Green Bay's laying points on the road here. The Buccaneers
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: are going to be in desperation mode with no wins
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: on the season. Green Bay has a third road game
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: in four weeks here, which is not that easy. And
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: Green Bay has to play the Bears next. And then
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys and the Lions. So those are all big games. Bears,
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: of course, again, is their primary rival. So you could
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: make the argument it's a look ahead for Green Bay.
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: Although I don't think they can afford to look ahead,
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: you know, coming off a bad loss like that. So
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: I still think it's kind of a positive thing. for
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: Green Bay, but I think it's a positive for Tampa Bay, too,
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: in the Battle of the Bays, because Tampa Bay, they're 0-3, dude.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: They gotta get a win, so you're gonna be facing,
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: I think, a desperate Tampa team, and we took a
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: loss with Tampa last week, and they should not have
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: lost this game. Minnesota, in this game, Minnesota did not
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: even run any single play in the red zone all game. Yes,
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: that is correct. Minnesota never took an offensive snap, in
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: the red zone all game, and they still won 23
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: to 16. And that was because they had a punt
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: return touchdown early in the game. And then Baker Mayfield,
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: by the way, got hurt and exited the game. So
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: we got fucked in this game, dude. And then Minnesota
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: had some field goals that they made from outside the
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: red zone. And their only touchdown was also from outside
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: the red zone. Their only offensive touchdown. So this is
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: a misleading result. Tampa Bay lost the turnover battle. They
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: won the yardage battle. They got kind of screwed in
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: this game. You know, I'm pissed, obviously, because we had
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: a play on Tampa, and that one, of course, Baker
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: Mayfield went down. But what am I about to say,
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: other than the fact that this is a misleading result
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: with Tampa Bay? Yeah, it's the injured player theory spot
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: for Tampa Bay here, and they are going to be
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: going with Jalen Daniels, who's going to get sued by
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: Jaden Daniels, probably, who seems very litigious. you know, against
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: people using his number five at LSU or whatever. But
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: he probably is not going to allow Jalen Daniels to
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: quarterback with a similar name to him. No, I don't know.
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: I'm just joking around. But yes, Jalen Daniels will make
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: his NFL regular season debut here. He's a rookie, I believe,
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: was drafted by Tampa this year out of University of Kansas. Now,
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: he's going to be a different look from Mayfield, okay?
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: Like Green Bay, they were going to normally have to–
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: prepare for Mayfield here Jalen Daniels is more of a
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: dual threat quarterback he can run the football a bit
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: so Green Bay is going to have to prepare for
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: that that element from Tampa Bay's offense now whereas normally
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: they wouldn't have to and you know what I always
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: say with the injured player theory I think the team
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: steps up their game extra um and you uh you
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: get a little bit of line value on that team, right?
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: Because the line's going to overreact to the Baker Mayfield injury.
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: That's why Green Bay is a road favorite to the
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: degree that they are. So I think you get line
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: value on the injured team, like I said, on the
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: team with the injured quarterback. And I think the team
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: knows they need to step up their game. And if
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: they like Daniels, they're going to rally around him and
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: try to get him a win in his debut. You
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? Oh, he was undrafted?
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: For some reason, I thought he got drafted. I mean,
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: I thought he got drafted because he's in the NFL.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: But all right, I guess he was undrafted. Either way,
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: that's who Tampa Bay is going with here. But I
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: think he's going to be a little bit difficult to
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: repair for just because he's a dual-threat quarterback, and there's
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: no film on him yet, really, except for preseason, right?
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: So you don't really know what Tampa's going to do offensively.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: And Tampa, at 0-3, I think it's just going to be,
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: you know, Tampa's just going to say, fuck it, in
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: my opinion, and just play loose, and it's just like, whatever.
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? pressure will be completely off
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: of Tampa. So I'm going to lean Tampa in this game.
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: But I do agree that there's a positive for both
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: teams here. I think both teams are in a positive
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: spot here. I just think there are more negatives for
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: Green Bay here. And Green Bay is the road favorite here,
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: and it's a low total. So, you know, I don't
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: like laying road favorites with a low total. 63% of tickets,
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: 63% of the cash on Green Bay. They're laying 3-3.5 here.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: Low total, like I said, of 38.5. expected the points
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: are going to be at a premium. I would take
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: the points if I was going to do it. Fucked
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: your mother gay. What's up, man? I wouldn't say it's easy,
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: but I'm going to lean towards Tampa in that game.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, nothing is easy. I don't call anything a
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: lock here, but that game is certainly not one I'm
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: going to play. Again, I think both teams have a
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: reason to show up in that game. So it's a
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: very difficult handicap, in my opinion. Tennessee at Baltimore. This
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: game is not as difficult of a handicap to me.
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: I have a side that I like in this game,
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: and this one probably is going to make my pick
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: five entry, to be honest. Uh, Baltimore is coming back
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: from Brazil. And while I believe Brazil, uh, Rio, I
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: believe is in the Eastern time zone. Still, that was
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: a big game, man. You got to have, you know,
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: you have an unfamiliar travel spot, Baltimore, um, Played a
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: big game against Dallas on an international stage. High-scoring game,
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: so it was a good-looking win for Baltimore. People will
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: give them credit for beating the Cowboys and putting up
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: a bunch of points, even though the Cowboys' defense is ass,
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: so maybe you shouldn't give Baltimore that much credit for that.
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: And Baltimore probably should have won that game more easily,
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: by the way. They let the Cowboys get back in
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: that game and score right near the end of the game,
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: pretty much. But I think Baltimore might just look right
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: past Tennessee. I mean, Tennessee's done nothing to look good
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: so far. Baltimore has a primetime game coming up next.
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: They're playing Sunday night. And I know it's only against
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: the Atlanta Falcons, but still a Sunday night game. You
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: might look ahead to that because it is a primetime game.
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: So there is the potential look ahead there. By the way,
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: next week's Monday night game is Bill's Rams. And I
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: don't think either team is going to, I don't think
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: either of those teams is overlooking their, game this week
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: uh you know head to that game though so I
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: don't think that's much of a factor even though I
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: don't like either of those teams this week really but
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: yeah I'm just pointing it out um the Thursday night
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: game with a quick turnaround time wait who is it
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: again oh Tampa is in that game against Dallas so
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: yeah I guess that that is a slight negative for
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: Tampa I guess um in their game here so that's
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: another thing that would give me a little bit of
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: hesitation on Tampa as they have a quick turnaround time
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: playing Thursday night against Dallas. That's a pretty big game. However,
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: Tampa's 0-3, man, so they can't afford to look past
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: anybody here. So I still think Tampa shows up for
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: that game. Anyway, Baltimore, I think they might look past
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: Tennessee here, man. It's kind of a sandwich spot with
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: the Sunday night game upcoming and coming back from a
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: big game in Brazil. Yeah, I like the Titans getting
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: the points here in this one. Titans haven't looked good,
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: you know. I mean... They look good against the Eagles, though,
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: two weeks ago, but people are going to forget about
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: that because the Titans looked really bad losing to the
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: James Winston Giants. Yeah, that's not good, obviously, but nobody's
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: going to want the Titans off of that. So you
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: know the public's going to only be playing Baltimore here,
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: and you're laying a lot of points. Baltimore has 66%
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: of tickets and cash on them. It's an 11.5 point spread,
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: and the total is not high. Total's 41.5, 42.5. Yeah.
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: I think it's a game where Baltimore just wants to
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: get in, get out, uh, get the win. I think
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: that they, I think it's likely they don't cover. I
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: like Tennessee plus the points in that one. That would
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: be my opinion in that game. Um, again, getting a
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: ton of points with a low total also is something
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: I like to look for. So that one might make
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: my contest entry because, um, you know, uh, Nancy, what's up? Um, No,
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: it is not a Derrick Henry revenge spot. He hasn't
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: been on Tennessee for years, and a running back giving
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: that much of a shit about the team that let
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: him go? No, it doesn't matter. It matters with maybe
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: a starting pitcher in baseball. That's pretty much about it.
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: Maybe a quarterback, I guess. Doesn't matter at all. Henry
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: has already faced Tennessee multiple times since then. Does not
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: matter at all. That has zero bearing on this game whatsoever.
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: I don't think Baltimore gives a shit about that game.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: I think they overlook Tennessee. Tennessee is the right side
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: in that game. That is probably going to make my
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: contest entry at the very least. It's not a play
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: for me on the show here, but I think I'm
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: going to have to put that in the contest entry
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: because I feel more strongly about that than a lot
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: of these other games. All right, the other side of
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: that Rio game, Dallas just played a big game against Baltimore.
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: Now they're coming back from Rio as well, and they
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: have to play an 0-3 Houston team I'm going to
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: be leaning towards Houston in this one, man. Dallas does
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: have the quick turnaround time to Thursday, although I don't
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: know if they're going to look ahead to Tampa Bay
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: because Tampa Bay hasn't looked good, but that is still
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: at least an NFC matchup where, honestly, I don't think
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: Dallas is going to care that much about Houston here.
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: Houston's got the better defense at the very least, which
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: I usually like to play the better defense getting points,
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: and Houston is actually laying points in this game. But
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: I still like Houston here for a whole bunch of reasons. Houston,
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: I know they're coming off a big divisional game and
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: they lost, so sometimes I won't want to play on
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: a team after that, but come on, man. They're 0-3,
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: and Houston versus the Cowboys is like a one-sided rivalry.
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: There's no way that's true. There's no fucking way that's possible.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: He's been on the Ravens for, what, like three years
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: at least? There's no way that that's true. And even
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: if it is, it does not matter at all. It
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: does not matter. Tennessee is the right side in that game. Houston...
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: this is a one-sided rivalry. Do the Cowboys don't really
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: give a shit about Houston, but Houston is the little
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: brother to the Cowboys in the state of Texas. Cause
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: obviously the Cowboys, they're America's team. They used to be
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: the only team in Texas, whatever. Well, it was them
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: and Houston Oilers for a while. Um, but Houston, Texas,
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: they're an expansion team. The Cowboys don't consider them to
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: be a threat or whatever. Um, You know, so I
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: think this is a bigger game for Houston. It's also
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: bigger because they're 0-3. And the other thing I like
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: about this is the public's going to look at this,
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: and the public likes offense over defense, right? And they're
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: going to see, well, the Cowboys have a good offense,
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: and they at least have one win. So why would
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: I want to lay points with a team that can't
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: score like Houston? That's 0-3, right? That's what the public
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: is going to think. Like, why would you lay points
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: with an 0-3 team with a bad offense against a
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: 1-2 team with a good offense, right? But that's exactly
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: why I would want to do that here. I think
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: this is one of the better opinions of the week, actually.
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: I like Houston. Houston also, I believe, is getting Nico
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: Collins back finally this week, so that should help their
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: offense at least, even though I don't think Stroud is
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: that good. I think he was a flash in the pan,
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: you know, his– rookie season, and then the league figured
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: him out after that. But even so, I like Houston
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: in this game. I like the better defense. I like
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: the spot better for Houston. Weird spot for Dallas coming
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: off that big game against Baltimore, coming back home here.
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: It's a misleading-looking line. Like, how could you possibly have
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: an 0-3 team that's favored, right? 0-3 teams are almost
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: never favored. I'm going to take a guess that In
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: the rare case where you have an 0-3 team that's favored,
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: I'm going to guess that they have a good record
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: at winning that game at the very least. I'm going
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: to guess that the majority of 0-3 teams that are
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: favored in their game win that game. That's just the
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: way that this works, man. And the money is all
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: over Houston here. The public is on Dallas. 72% of
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: the tickets on Dallas. The real money is back in
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: Houston to some extent. 53% of the cash. They've actually
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: moved up from 1.5% now to 3%. It's moved up
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: to that key number three. Obviously, I would have liked
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: it better if you could get it below three. If
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: you can find a two and a half. You know,
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: if maybe the public is going to hold this thing
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: down and maybe you can find a two and a
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: half on this. But, yeah, I think Houston's the right side.
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: Maybe that one makes my... That one might make my
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: contest entry. I'm not sure yet, man. I'm kind of pissed. JC,
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: what's up? Oh, my God. Hi, JC. Yes, hello, everybody.
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to... You know, I'm still pissed that I
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: didn't put the Browns in my contest entry, man. I
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: almost did. I thought it was a letdown spot for
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: the Steelers, and the Browns had all that history on Thursday.
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: I was just worried about the Thursday night history of
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: rookie coaches, basically. Like, that wasn't a good history. But
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: the Browns still got the job done. All right, Miami
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: and Minnesota. I think Minnesota's the most overrated team in
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: the NFL right now. They're 3-0, and they've done nothing
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: to deserve this 3-0 record, okay? They got outgamed by
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: 200 yards by the Packers in Week 1. Packers should
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: not have lost this game, and yet Minnesota somehow won
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: this game by 17 points. I have no fucking clue
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: how that happened, other than Green Bay had 12 fucking
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: penalties in the game. But Green Bay outgamed them by
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: 200 yards here. So that was a misleading result. Then Minnesota,
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: they won 9-3 against the Bears. Okay, great. You know, whatever.
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: Minnesota has a good defense. I'm not going to deny that.
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: Their defense is good. But then I told you last week,
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: Minnesota did not even get into the red zone on offense.
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: They had no snaps in the red zone last week
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: against the Buccaneers and somehow won that game because they
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: had one long touchdown pass and they had a punt
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: return touchdown there. And then Baker Mayfield got hurt. So
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: Minnesota is an extremely misleading 3-0. I know Kyler Murray
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: was hurt for the second game. I don't even give
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: a shit, dude. Minnesota's offense is pathetic. This is one
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: of the worst offenses in the NFL. I don't care. Yeah,
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: I know they put up 39 points in the first game. Whatever.
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: And Murray barely played in that game, by the way.
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: So Murray has only played like one real game so far.
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: And the offense was... putrid with him out there last
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: week against the Buccaneers. I don't think Murray's good. I
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: think he's a loser. I think he's a career loser.
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: You know, he wasn't good in Arizona. I don't think
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: he's going to be good in Minnesota either. Minnesota sucks.
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: I think the Dolphins are the right side in this game.
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: Minnesota is the most, I'm telling you, they're the most
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: overrated 3-0 team that I've seen in quite some time.
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: They've lost the yardage battle in every single game, by
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: the way. Minnesota has not put up more than 240
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: yards of offense in any of their three games so far.
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: They're the only team in the NFL to do that,
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: by the way. I believe every other team has had
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: at least one game where they've put up more than
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: 240 yards of offense. Minnesota has not done that. They're
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: debatably the worst offense in the NFL so far. They suck.
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: And is that really what you want when you're going
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: to lay double digits? Do you want a pathetic offense
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: when you have to win by double digits?
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: No.
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: Fuck no. I know how bad Miami is, and I
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: have hesitations about Miami because... Well, they should have covered
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: last week, first of all, against the Chiefs, so I'm
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: pissed about that shit because that was in my contest entry.
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: And if you saw that game, Miami was down seven
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: with like four minutes left in the game. And what happened? Oh, yeah,
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: a bullshit roughing the passer call in the end zone
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: when Miami was about to get the ball back down seven.
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: They hit Mahomes in the end zone, but they hit
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: him while he was throwing. It was a completely legal hit.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: And because it's fucking Mahomes, up here comes the flag.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: It's roughing the passer. Chiefs get an extra set of downs,
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: and then what do they do? Oh, yeah, they wind
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: up fucking scoring a touchdown. Chiefs never should have fucking
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: covered that number. I think the Chiefs didn't even score
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: in the first half of that game or something, if
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: I remember correctly. It was a very low score, at least.
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: The Chiefs scored two touchdowns late in the game. That
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: was a game that Miami was hanging around in that game.
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: So I think Miami, they do have the ability to
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: hang around, man. If they could do that against the Chiefs,
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: The Vikings have no offense. So I think Miami should
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: be able to hang in this game. I like Miami.
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: I know it's a third-row game in four weeks, whatever.
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: I'm not laying points with this Vikings offense. They're complete ass. And, yeah,
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: I know Miami's offense is ass, too. Miami might be
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: the only offense in the league that's worse than the Vikings, okay? Fine.
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: I'll give you that. Miami might be the other team
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: that may have done that, that's put up fewer yards
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: than the Vikings or whatever. Whatever. You need the Vikings
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: to win by more than 10 points here. I'm not
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: doing it. Miami's the right side in this game. Let
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: me see. Minnesota's got 66% of tickets, only 65% of
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. Look at the fucking total in
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: this game. It's 38 and a half. And you want
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: to lay 10 points in Minnesota? Yeah. Good luck with
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: that shit. No. Miami's the right side in this one.
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: Getting double digit points with a total of 38 and
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: a half in the NFL, it's almost like an automatic play.
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: And Again, my one hesitation with Miami really is that
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: that was a big game for them against the Chiefs.
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: When a team is hanging around like Miami did last
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: week as a big underdog, I don't love backing them
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: in the next game, but I think it's the right side.
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: Minnesota is just so overrated. This is a 3-0 team
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: versus an 0-3 team. I think it's the only one
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: of those. By principle alone, you've got to take the
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: 0-3 team against the 3-0. You've got to just do it.
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: I think this is the only scenario where... uh that
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: where we have that this week yeah i'm assuming that
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: long term if you play the own three team against
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: the spread against the three and all you're going to
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: win so yeah that's what we should do in that
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: game um you're taking a specific player to pick off
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: CJ Stroud. I would not do that. There's no way
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: I would play those fucking like lottery props. Just know
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: that it's basically a lottery ticket. You're just trying to
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: get really lucky. Um, I've already touched both JC. Um,
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: the week two game was a, was a weather game for,
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: for who, for Tampa Bay. It was, um, Which game?
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: Whose game are you talking about? Oh, the Chicago-Minnesota game,
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: you mean? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, it was, but I
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: don't even care. Dude, Minnesota's offense is still complete ass.
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: You saw what they did last week, which was literally nothing.
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: So that offense is terrible. I'm not, I mean, I'm
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: not wrong about that. Dirty Sock, yes. What's up? Yes,
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: thank you. That's not going to fucking happen, dude. The
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: Dolphins are the right side. I mean, knowing my luck,
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: that will be what happens, but it's not going to
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: be a play for me. Yes. Yes, Vikings-Bears. Yeah, correct.
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: You're right. That was a bad weather game.
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: That was the first game of the 4 p.m. slate here.
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: We have Kansas City and Las Vegas, a battle of
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: two 3-0 teams. Yeah, okay. We know who the better
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: team is here. It's the Chiefs. I'm not going to
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: buy this bullshit with the Vegas Raiders, dude. I know
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: the Raiders are 3-0. I know Kirk Cousins looks pretty good,
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: but they beat the Dolphins in week one. Okay, the
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL. Who cares?
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: Then they beat this Chargers team that can't get out
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: of their own way. The Chargers are 3-0. Does that
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: win look as good right now for the Raiders? Not really.
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: And then what happened last week? Oh, yeah. The Raiders
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: were losing by two scores to the Saints yesterday. in
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: the fourth quarter, and what happened? The Saints made history
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: last week, and they turned the ball over on four
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: straight possessions in the fourth quarter. That's never happened before
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: in NFL history, I believe. That's how the Raiders won
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: that game against the Saints. You want to talk about
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: a misleading result? Four straight turnovers in the fourth quarter
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: by the Saints. Never fucking happened in NFL history, and
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: that's the reason the Raiders won that game. They never
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: should have won this game against the Saints. The Saints
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: out-gamed them. The Saints were minus three in turnovers. Total
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: bullshit is what happened in that game. The Raiders are
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: not this good. I know the Raiders will get up
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: for a game against the Chiefs, but this game is
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: Chiefs or pass for me. People are going to look
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: at this and say, oh my God, it's 3-0 versus 3-0.
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: Let's take the home underdog here. no i'm not buying
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: it kansas city's coming off an ugly game against the
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: dolphins where i think kansas city just went through the
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: motions and yes i know they're having to go east
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: coast to west coast but the good news for them
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: is this is not a late game it's only a
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: 4 25 p.m eastern game so it's not a night
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: game for them and yeah so i don't think it's
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: that bad for them i think this game chiefs to
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: the right side in this game in my opinion the
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: money doesn't agree i told you the money was going
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: to disagree with some of my uh opinions here chiefs
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: are laying four and a half here 51 of the
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: tickets on kansas city 56 of the cash on vegas
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: but when are you going to get a kansas city
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: and raiders game where the public is not heavily on
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: the chiefs right like that's kind of what i'm thinking
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: like the public doesn't really want to back the chiefs
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: here yet they're clearly the better team uh you know
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: i mean we're still talking about chiefs raiders like even
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: if the raiders are a little bit better right now
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: The Chiefs are still like a Super Bowl contending team,
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: and the Raiders are still the fucking Raiders. You know,
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: even if they're a little bit better, Kansas City's still
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: going to be able to beat them. Yes. The Chiefs
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: have a bye next. Yeah, I mean, I don't put
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: much weight into the bye. Like, you know, I mean...
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: I think the only thing that the bye does is
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: it can delay a look-ahead spot. If a team has
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: a big game after the bye, I think that look-ahead
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: gets mitigated a little bit. Other than that, I don't
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: care if a team has a bye coming up next
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: unless the team's really, really roughed up and it looks
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: like they're just going to not care about a game
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: right before going into a bye and want to use
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: that bye to rest up. I don't think that's the
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: case here with Kansas City. Kansas City's coming off a
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: game where they didn't look good. against Miami. Again, what
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: do I say? When a team's a big favorite and
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: they don't play well, which was the case with Kansas City,
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: I think they play better in the next game. So
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: that's my opinion there. Denver and San Francisco, this is
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: one of the games where I'm disagreeing with the market
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: the most. I like the 49ers in this game. Denver...
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: They're coming off a game where they looked way better
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: than they were. It was a primetime game. Everybody saw
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: that game. Everyone loves the Rams here. The Rams are
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: still one of the Super Bowl favorites this year. Denver
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: beating the Rams on primetime looks awesome. You know what
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: I mean? So I think immediately that sets up a
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: spot where Denver's going to be a little bit overvalued.
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: Denver could be in a letdown spot off a big
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: game like that. That was a huge game. But it
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: was also misleading, as I already pointed out. The Rams
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: dominated this game. The Rams were winning almost the entire game.
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: The Rams had a huge yardage edge in the game.
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: They won the yardage battle by over 200 yards in
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: this game. So this game was not what it looked
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: like on the scoreboard. And you want to talk about scoreboards,
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: by the way. Denver's 2-1, yet Denver has only led... for,
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe about five minutes of game time
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: at most this entire season. Denver, this year, looks like
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: what Tampa Bay looked like last year. Remember, I kept
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: talking about how Tampa Bay was winning in the final
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: two minutes, like, you know, overcoming these late deficits in
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: every fucking game? Well, that's the Broncos right now. The
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: Broncos got killed by the Chiefs and never led in
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: that game, I don't believe. Then, The Broncos only led
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: late in the game against the Jaguars after they came
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: back and won. And then Denver against the Rams, they
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: were losing that entire game too pretty much, and they
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: only took the lead really late in the game as well.
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: So Denver has barely been leading at all this entire season.
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: Now they're going back out on the road to the
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: Pacific Coast after they were at home a mile high
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: the last two games. And by the way, Denver is
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: 0-1 on the road so far this year, so they
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: haven't been good on the road so far. They lost
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: to the Chiefs. And if it's of any importance, I've
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: been right about all three of Denver's games so far,
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: even though probably I shouldn't have been right about the
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: game against the Rams. As you can see, the Rams
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: actually dominated them, but I was correct in that game
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: about the final score, whatever. I don't like Denver here, man.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: I just don't. And Denver does have the Chargers next too,
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: so I don't know. The 49ers might be a game
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: of less importance. to Denver right with a divisional game
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: up next even though the Chargers haven't looked good that's
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: still a divisional game coming up next for Denver so
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: they still might look ahead to that and as far
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: as the Niners the Niners didn't look that good last
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: week they're staying at home and they're coming off an
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: ugly game where they let the Cardinals get back into
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: that game and San Francisco had a close call in
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: that game what do I always say When a team
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: has a close call, is a big favorite, like what
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: happened to the 49ers, usually they refocus in the next
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: game and they do better. And the 49ers have been
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: at home since week two. They've had no true road
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: games so far because that first game was considered to
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: be a home game for the Rams, I believe. But
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: it was in Australia, so it was not a true
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: road game there. But whatever. I like the 49ers in
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: this one for all the reasons I stated. I know
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: the 49ers are a very injured team. What else is new?
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: They got to get rid of that electrical substation, man.
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: They got a lot of injuries, although wide receiver on
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: my fantasy team, Mike Evans, does look like he will
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: probably play here, and they do still have Debo, CMC, Purdy, Kittle.
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: Those guys are all here, so it's not too bad
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: for them, although they did lose Nick Bosa again, though.
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, again, what else is new? So they do
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: have some defensive injuries here as well, but Hopefully their
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: defense can pick up the slack a little bit there.
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: Denver's offense is not a prolific offense, though. But we
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: do see the money heavily indicating on Denver in this game,
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: and I do not agree with this. 61% of the
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: tickets on San Francisco, 64% of the cash on Denver.
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: So the money is backing Denver in this one. I
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: just don't agree. What else can I say, man? You're
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: looking at two and a half with San Francisco here, basically,
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: or three. I would lean towards laying it with San Francisco.
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: It's definitely not going to be on my card, but
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: I don't agree with the market in that one. Denver,
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: they had a lot of close wins last year. I
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: will say that. They had an easy schedule last year,
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: and they overperformed. They were better than they looked last year. What,
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: road team first half a mile high? What are we
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: talking about? This game is in San Francisco, and the
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: Broncos are the road team. And no, I lean San
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: Francisco in that game. All right. I think the spot
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: is better for San Francisco. Chargers and Seattle. Both teams
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: are going from East Coast to West Coast here, and
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: it's not a late night game, but Seattle's more used
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: to that type of travel, right? Because Seattle's a West
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: Coast team. Well, no, they both are. What am I saying?
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: They're both West Coast teams. What am I saying? Never mind.
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: But Seattle's used to returning home, at least to Seattle, right?
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: The Chargers don't play in Seattle very often. So the
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: Chargers are having to play a bunch of road games here,
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: or at least two road games in a row. Yeah,
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: so Chargers are having to play two road games in
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: a row here. Chargers just almost pulled off that win
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: against the Bills. That would have been a big win
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: for them. And what do I always say, man? When
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: a team has a big game like that and they
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: fall just short, I think they come up flat more
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: often than not in the next game, even though I
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: know It's the returning champion Seahawks. I don't love the
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: spot for the Chargers here. And they do play the
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: Broncos next, as I mentioned. That's going to be a
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: game that means more to the Chargers than the Seahawks
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: game does. Even though I know the Chargers are 0-3
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: and they kind of need to win every game. I
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: don't like them in this spot. And I think Seattle
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: is going to be focused here. So even if the
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: Chargers are going to be focused... I still don't like
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: them because Seattle's coming off that game against Washington where
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: I gave Washington out as a play last week. But
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: it was a misleading win for Washington. As I already
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: pointed out, Seattle won the yardage battle by 200 yards
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: in this game, basically. They were minus three in turnovers,
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: which does show that they did lack focus. in this game.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: And it was Sam Darnold's first game back as well.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: So I think there were multiple positives for Seattle here
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: coming back home. They're coming off a misleading loss. They're
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: coming off a loss where they got upset. So I
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: think both of those things indicate towards Seattle here. I
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: like playing teams off of games where they were a
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: favorite and they got upset. They tend to bounce back. Also,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: Sam Darnold, First game back, that was one of the
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: reasons why I faded them last week, right? The reverse
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: injured player spot was part of that handicap where I
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: think when a team gets their quarterback back, especially when
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: they're 2-0, they can tend to take their foot off
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: the gas a little bit and think, oh, yeah, we're
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: getting Darnold back. This is going to be easy. So
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: they tend to not play quite as hard. And sometimes
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: there's like a chemistry thing where they have to, you know,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: work their way. Like the offense has to kind of
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: work its way back with the quarterback there, right? But
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: I think after they get that game out of the way,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: if they play a bad game, that second game with
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: him back, I think they tend to play much better.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: I think that's what you're going to get out of
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: Seattle this time. I have to lead Seattle in this one.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: I know... They look like they're going to be a
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: public favorite here. Money looks like it is coming in
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: on Seattle, though. They have 62% of the tickets. The
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: public is definitely not playing the Chargers, but 80% of
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: the cash on Seattle. So this game does look like
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: the market does kind of agree with it. And this
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: number has gone up a little bit. It opened 6.5,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: and it's kind of gone through the key number 7.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: So this is one where the books did not want
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: to leave the number. at six and a half below
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: that key number where it looks really inviting to take Seattle.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: You're seeing this number creep through the key number seven
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: and a half. So that kind of tells you that
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: the books kind of do want to move this one
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: and start kind of, you know, eliminating those teasers a
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: little bit here. Um, so it seems like they're a
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: little bit more worried about Seattle winning this game outright
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: than say Buffalo, where we have not seen that number, uh,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: go to seven and a half. Uh, so I would
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: leave Seattle here. Um, You have to lay seven now
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: with them, though, probably. I would not lay seven and
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: a half with them. Maybe seven if you're really going
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: to do it. Or, again, you could put them in
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: a Moneyline parlay. But the good news, I guess, is
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: if they hit seven and a half, then you could
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: tease them down to one and a half. So you
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: could do it that way. So, you know, if the
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers were going to really kill the teaser, they'd have
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: to move this to nine. So you could only tease
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: them down to three with a 6.2 team teaser. But whatever,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: you know, based on the situation, I think Seattle's the
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: right side there. Detroit at Carolina is the Sunday night game.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: Both teams, I think, are in positive spots here to
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: some extent. Detroit's coming off not looking that good against
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: the Jets as a favorite. You know, I talk about
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: when a team has a close call as a favorite
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: like Detroit did. I think a lot of times they
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: play better in the next game. However, this is a
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: road-outdoor game, and Detroit's played one of those so far,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: and it didn't go well. They lost at Buffalo. I'm
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: not so sure this is going to go that well
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: for them either, man. Road-outdoors game for Detroit, not exactly
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: the best scenario for them. Carolina sitting at 1-2. Carolina
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: looks real bad in losing to the Browns last week.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: Nobody's going to want Carolina after they lost to Cleveland
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: last week, but if you look at this game, it
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: was kind of misleading, man. Carolina won the yardage battle
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: by over a hundred yards. And I don't know how
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: they lost this game to be honest. Um, I think
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: maybe it was some turnovers on downs or something. Uh, yeah,
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: they were old for three on fourth down. So yeah,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: they had three turnovers on downs. Browns only had one. Uh,
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: so that was kind of it. Carolina didn't really have
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: many turnovers here. Um, Yeah, I think it was kind
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: of a misleading result here, and it looks bad on
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: the scoreboard. Nobody's going to really want Carolina after they
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: lose to the Browns. Even if the Browns did beat
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: the Steelers, Carolina's still not going to get much credit
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: for losing to the Browns. But the good news for
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: Carolina is the Browns are a better defense than Detroit is.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: The Lions' defense is not very good, so I think
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: Carolina should be able to put up more offense in
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: this one against Detroit. Now Detroit's going to put up
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: their offense as well. Their offense is really good. Carolina's
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: defense is not that good either. So I would not
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: want to be in an under in this game, even
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: though you know what I always say about these primetime games.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: The public always plays the over. But if you want
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: to play the over in this game, you basically already
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: missed the boat because it was at 48 and a
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: half and it's already up through the key number of 51,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: basically at a 51 and a half. Now, if you're
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: really going to play the over, I would try to
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: find the 51, which is the next key number, basically
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: after 47 or maybe 48. I would not play the
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: under in this game. I'll tell you that. I think
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: you're looking at Two teams where the offenses are going
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: to have the edge here. Two bad defenses, but I
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: don't love overs in public games. Public usually likes the over,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: but the money is coming in on the over. 83%
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 95% of the cash on that, on the over.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: And it's a high total. It's high for a reason,
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: although it might be skewed a little bit high because
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: of the public getting involved in a game like that.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: But I also am going to lean to Carolina here,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: as you probably could figure out by the way I
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: was talking. Money looks like it's on Detroit right now,
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: although they're going to kind of be the public side here.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: 60% of tickets, 72% of the cash on them. They're
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: laying 3-3.5 now, but I think based off of last
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: week's results, I think Detroit getting a win, albeit over
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: the Jets, I think in the public's eye that's at
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: least going to look better than Carolina losing to Cleveland.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: So the 3-1 Cleveland Browns, by the way. Um, yeah.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: And the public, you know, they just, they like Detroit
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: as the better team out of these two teams. And
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: while yes, Detroit is the better team. I'm not so
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: sure about the spot here. So I'm going to lead
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: towards Carolina, uh, Detroit. Um, yeah, I mean, they're, they're
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: only playing the Cardinals next. That's not really a big deal, but, uh, yeah,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: I think the lean would be. uh, towards, uh, Carolina now,
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: by the way, I did forget to mention San Francisco,
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: one negative for San Francisco is they do play the
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: Seahawks next, that is a big game, right, because the
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: Seahawks are the team that eliminated San Francisco, I'm pretty sure, right,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: in the playoff, or no, um, yes, that's right, I
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: think that's right, uh, yeah, I believe the Seahawks eliminated
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: San Francisco in the, uh, divisional series or whatever last year.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: So that is a big game for San Francisco. So
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: you can make the argument it is a look ahead
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: for San Francisco with the Seahawks coming up next. It'll
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: be a big revenge game for San Francisco. So that's
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: one negative for San Francisco in that game. That's not
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: to be overlooked, by the way, although I'm kind of
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: still leaning San Francisco there. And then we have Monday night.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: I know I've only given out one play so far
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: on the show, but I'll give you two. I'll give
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: out a Monday night play, even though I'm going to
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: talk about it again on Monday night. But just so
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: you have it now, We're going to take the New
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: Orleans Saints minus two here. And you know part of
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: the reason for that is, this is at home, by
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: the way, for the Saints. Part of the reason for
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: that is the way that they lost to the Raiders.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: People are going to think that's bad. Oh, my God,
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: New Orleans lost to the Raiders. But I told you
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: what happened in that game. The Saints had four turnovers
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: in a row in the fourth quarter. They were going
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: to win that game, and they turned it over four
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: consecutive times, I believe the first time in NFL history.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: So that was a misleading result. The Saints were the
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: better team in that game. And what have the Saints
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: done otherwise? Oh, yeah, they just almost beat the Lions
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: on the road and did beat the Ravens on the road.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: So it's not like the Saints team has a bad-looking
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: resume so far. They do not at all. They've actually
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: looked pretty good so far. For a 1-2 team, they've
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: looked about as good as possible, really. And this is
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: going to be a big divisional game for them. New
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: Orleans will be at home here. I believe New Orleans
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: has double revenge here as well for last year because
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: I believe they lost both games to the Falcons, if
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken. They lost at Atlanta in the final
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: game of the season last year, and yes, they lost
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: at home to Atlanta as well. So this is double
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: revenge for New Orleans. That might have them a little
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: bit more focused. And Atlanta's going to be in a
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: fade spot, man. I mean, look at what they did
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: last week. Yeah, they have extra time off Thursday night,
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: but they looked awesome against the Packers last week, and
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: that's what everybody last saw. And you know the public
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: latches on to what they saw last. And this is
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: still going to be a third road game in four
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: weeks for Atlanta, which is definitely a negative as well.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: Coming off a big win. I think the extra rest
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: actually hurts you when you have that much time to
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: think about it. It basically functions like a bye, in
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: my opinion, when you have a long week. I think
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: if you go into that long week on a negative,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: it helps you fix shit. But if you go into
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: it on a positive, I think that's bad because you're
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: just basking in it like, oh, man, we looked awesome.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: We got Michael Penix back. He's our guy. You know
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: what I mean? Whatever. Falcons are gearing up for hate week.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: What the fuck? Against the Saints. Whatever that is, that's
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: going to motivate the Saints even more, man. I don't
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: know what this is, but if they're calling this week
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: hate week... For the Saints, yeah, I actually don't like
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: that for Atlanta. I think that's going to motivate the
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: Saints more. So, yeah, we're going to take the Saints
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: on Monday night. I think it's a let down spot
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: for Atlanta New Orleans has 57% of the tickets right
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: now which actually surprises me you would think the public
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: would be on Atlanta right now 66% of the cash
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: on New Orleans they're laying two and a half or
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: actually you can find a two you might be able
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: to find a one and a half out there right
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: now too but yeah New Orleans is going to be
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: my other play this week so hopefully the market continues
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: agreeing with it but That's it, man. That's the show here.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: Get to do it in about an hour. That's not
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: too bad considering I'm bantering and yelling at you guys.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: Forgive me. I'm an asshole. I'm a stubborn asshole on
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: the show. I get real ornery on the show. I'm
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: more ornery when we're losing here. We had a 3-3
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: day today at least after going 0-3 early in the day.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: My college football contest entry didn't do well, so I'm
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: fucking pissed about that. But anyway, we have two plays
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: in the NFL here. We have the Jets plus the
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: points tomorrow. I know nobody's going to like that, but dude,
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: you got to get real ugly in the NFL. It's
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: what you got to do. I'm 31 and 18 so
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: far against the spread, picking all games against the spread.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: So I know what I'm doing, even though my best
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: plays didn't work out last week. And then we're going
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: to take the Saints on Monday night, minus the two.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: Or you could play Moneyline on this too, actually, if
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: you want to, like minus 125. That's in consideration as well.
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: I'll have to finalize that as far as how I
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: want to make that play, but that's going to do it.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: I appreciate everybody. Chat bumping tonight. Thank you, everybody. Had
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: several people in the chat tonight. I appreciate it. Learn
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: to tell it on Twitter. Learn to tell it on Instagram. Like,
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: subscribe to the channel here, and you'll get notified when
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: I go live, which will be tomorrow morning where we
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: have some more baseball, the handicap, and WNBA playoffs returns,
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: and we'll have some NHL to look at as well.
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: So it'll be a shorter... morning board, but it'll be
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: easier for me to focus. We'll see if I wind
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: up with any plays there. Hockey's off to a 3-0 start,
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: so I like that. I'm only 1-1 in Major League
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: Baseball playoffs so far, and let's not talk about the
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: WNBA at all. How about that? Maybe I should just
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: avoid it from now on and just Go with the
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: losing season. We had a winning season last year in
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: the WNBA. I'm still up overall with the WNBA. Even
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: though this season's been bad, I'm still up by three
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: or four plays, so whatever. Anyway, like, subscribe to the
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: channel here. Hype it on mobile, whatever the fuck that does.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: Leave good comments. Leave bad comments, and I'll get mad
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: at you and probably block you. Whatever. Do whatever you want, man,
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: at your own discretion. Listen on audio. We've had the
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: weekend spike again on audio. Let's keep that going. Hell yeah,
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: even though my college football sucked ass. I almost said
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: suck dick, and then I changed it to ass, and
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: it sounded like das. But there you go. Yeah, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker,
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: we're on there. Covered in Uke is my ukulele channel
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: on YouTube. You can check that out. Got to get
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: my latest couple of covers up there. Got to add
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: them to the Patreon feed as well. Spotify, Patreon, Uke feed.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: And you get requests that I might or might not do. Um,
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: it takes me a while sometimes, but I apologize. But
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: if you want to throw me some support, Patreon, learn
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: to toad, you can go over there. And we have
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: the loser cast, uh, every, uh, Tuesday night. And hopefully
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: that does not, hopefully my picks are not losers of
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: the week. Let's put it that way. Uh, I appreciate it. Um,
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: My hockey leans were good again? All right, well, that's good,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: I guess. Good read on hockey. We won the one
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: play I gave out on an empty netter. It would
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: have been a push otherwise, but the empty netter is
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: always in consideration, man. If you have a team that
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: you think is going to be winning towards the end
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: of the game, maybe we should have played it to
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: win in regulation. Maybe I should start doing that more
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: and switch up what I do. But the empty netter,
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: it happens so often now that when you have a
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: team up one or even up more than one late
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: in the game, you know, it helps you out if
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: you're on the favorites, so yes, so I'm not going
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: to say we got lucky on it, Tampa Bay was
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: the better team in the game, I'm pretty sure, I'll
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: have to look at the box score, but yeah, let's
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: do it, I appreciate it, thanks everybody, Dirty Sock, Nancy,
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: Fuck Your Mother Gay, JC, thanks for hanging out everybody, Wayne,
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: did I get everybody? Hopefully I did, I don't know,
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: I don't want to miss anybody, hopefully I did, I
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: appreciate everybody, I got to get some sleep soon, although
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: it'll probably be another hour before I do that, but Peace. Oh,
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: and I'm going to be on a podcast tomorrow night.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it's live or if it's being
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: recorded tomorrow. It's going to be, what the hell is
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: that dude's name? Tommy Burgos or some shit. I apologize.
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what the guy's name is. He's funny.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: He's pretty good on Twitter. I think it's that guy.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: I'm going to be on whatever his show is tomorrow.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: I might retweet it if he tweets it, whatever the
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: hell it is, but I guess be on the lookout
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: for that as well. That's going to do it.
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 3: Peace. If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 3: Let somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: To lose this round alone. Hold on, hold on, not tonight.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 3: Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 3: out That bad luck fights hard But it don't get
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 3: the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: You're still here now.