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The Blue State Exodus - Gradually, The Suddenly · Conversations: Special Guests with Preston Scott

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: And it's the third hour of the radio program effectually
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: known as Common Sense Amplified. It's the Morning Show with
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Preston Scott. He's Jse. I'm Preston, and this is our friend,
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: doctor Bob McClure, President of the James Madison Institute. You
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: might have listened to my monologue about why in the
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: world would anyone not want to be a conservative, not
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: a Republican A conservative. Big difference. Yeah, there is a
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: big difference. But I've I mean, I've always used the
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: kind of a joking expression, conservatism is always right. It is.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: It just is. It's a philosophy that doesn't have any
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: chinks in the armor when you do it right, when
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: you do it right. Yeah. Yeah.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: And you know what's fascinating about that, and is that
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: everybody's a conservative in their private lives, even the most
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: left wing liberal person in the universe. They're not going
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: to send their kids to lousy schools if they can't,
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: They're not going to live in a crappy neighborhood if
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: they can't. They're going to do what's best for them, right.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: And so even the most left wing person in their
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: private lives, they don't do social experiments on their own family.
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: They yes for THEE, but not for me, right, Yeah,
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: And so everybody's a conservative, some just won't admit it.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: And that's the truth. That's the way life is conservative.
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: Margaret Thatcher said that life is conservative, and she's right.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Boy, she write about a lot of stuff. You've got
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: a piece written for Fox tell us about it. I do.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: I have a piece today on foxnews dot com and
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: it is about the exodus from blue states to red
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: states and how by every single index that we have,
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Americans are choosing to vote with their feet. So there's
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: been a lot of conversation about the next census coming
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: up in twenty thirty. California is slated to lose four
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: congressional seats, which also means four electoral votes.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: They're trying to make up for that with redistricting, they.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: Are, Well, no, they're trying to make up with that
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: illegal immigration. Well, they're trying to make up for that
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: by redistricting Republicans out of existence, that's true, right, But
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: they're also trying to make up for that by illegal immigration.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: Most Americans don't know that illegal You don't have to
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: be a citizen to be counted in the census. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: and so California slated to lose four Illinois and New
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: York slated to lose two to four. California has not
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: picked up congressional seats since two thousand. Illinois New York
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: have not picked up a congressional seat since last century.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Do you have an estimate on what would happen if
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: illegals were not counted in some of these states?
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: Oh, my gosh, I haven't seen. I've seen, you know,
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  Speaker 2: numbers thrown around, but i'd be you know, remiss to
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: say for sure. I mean, if they're losing four now, yeah,
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  Speaker 2: I mean I would say, you know, six seven. Florida
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: and Texas are slated to pick up four each. So
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: my article essentially says that takes a line from an
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: old Ernest Hemingway novel. I'm a former English teacher, so
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: I'm always going back to literature.
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  Speaker 1: Uh.
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  Speaker 2: And it's about a character in there who goes bankrupt
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: and his friend says, you know, how did this happen?
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: And Mike's response is this guy named Mike Campbell from
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  Speaker 2: the Sun also risis. He said, I did it two ways,
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  Speaker 2: gradually and then suddenly, and so what's happened? What we've
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  Speaker 2: seen in these blue states, is they moved towards financial
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  Speaker 2: ruin is gradually they began to lose population. Illinois, New
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: York have been losing population, have not picked up a
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  Speaker 2: congressional seat since last century, California since two thousand and
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: now all of a sudden, there is a mass exodus
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: and they are looking for ways to make up for
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  Speaker 2: that in their budget. Mamdannie wants to raise taxes, right,
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: that will help, Right, California wants the wealth tax. And
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: we're seeing companies finally saying you know what, I'm finished.
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: Meta's left, Zuckerberg's buying in South Florida, Elon's gone to Texas.
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  Speaker 2: Wells Fargo is moving its headquarters to Palm Beach, Quantum
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  Speaker 2: is moving down to South Florida. King Griffin, the head
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  Speaker 2: of the largest hedge fund, most successful hedge fund in
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: the country, left Chicago. And of course we know about
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  Speaker 2: the exodus from New York. And so the whole point
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  Speaker 2: of the article is Americans are value freedom and capital
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  Speaker 2: and markets and opportunity in their chance the American dream,
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  Speaker 2: and they're choosing quietly just to leave states that refuse
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  Speaker 2: to allow them to do that. Back for doctor Bob
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  Speaker 2: McClure the James Madison Institute. We're talking about a piece
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  Speaker 2: that is live right now on Fox News. The title
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  Speaker 2: of the piece people want to look it up is
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  Speaker 2: gradually and then suddenly it's Yeah, if you gradually, then
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: suddenly blue State America is heading for financial disaster.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you'll find that if you google that real quickly
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  Speaker 1: on the Fox News site. Don't trust the Fox News
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: search engine, by the way, just google it and you'll
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  Speaker 1: find it a lot faster. Do lawmakers in Florida fully
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: embrace and understand this reality? They have for a very
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  Speaker 1: long time.
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  Speaker 2: You and I at the beginning of this conversation, we're
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: talking about conservatism, which is not republic the Republican.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Party right correct.
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  Speaker 2: For many years, we have been very fortunate in Florida
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: because we've had what I call movement conservative leaders at
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: the state level. Now, we don't always agree with everything
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: that they do all the time, but we have. We
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: started with Jeb who was considered radical when he was governor,
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: like crazy radical because he wanted a tiny little school
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  Speaker 2: choice program and he was trying to eliminate the intangibles taxe.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: You know, remember the Palm Beach Post the old Saint
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: Pete Times which is now Tampa Bay Times. And that
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: was when newspapers mattered, and it was I mean, they
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: just drove. I mean, we had Jeb for eight years,
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  Speaker 2: great redid the state government. We had Rick Scott for
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: eight years. We have had Ron DeSantis for eight years.
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  Speaker 2: And we had Charlie crist As a blip on the screen, right,
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  Speaker 2: a windsock.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Right.
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  Speaker 2: We've had a legislature that understood the times by and large,
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  Speaker 2: not always, but at order that you know, eighty percent
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: my friend is not twenty percent my enemy, as Reagan said. Right.
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  Speaker 2: So we've had leaders like Alan Benz and Paul Renter
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: and all kinds of great leaders at the legislative level.
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  Speaker 2: And we have become a movement conservative state. And what
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: do we see. We see people moving here by the
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: thousands right now. Do we have issues? Of course we do.
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  Speaker 2: Is affordability an issue?
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  Speaker 1: Yes?
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  Speaker 2: Is housing an issue?
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Yes?
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  Speaker 2: All of those things are true. And the legislature has
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: for years understood this. We've gotten tort reform, universal school choice,
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: tax reduction. The governor is now driving the debate on
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: property taxes. Where that goes, nobody knows, but he is.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: He's he's got big ideas, right. Rick Scott had big
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: ideas about Remember he took over during the eight meltdown,
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: and it was just complete jobs, job jobs. It was
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: it was you know, remember Governor Scott, how are your kids. Well,
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: let's talk about jobs in Florida. Hey, Governor Scott, I
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: heard you just had a grand baby. Well let's talk
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: about jobs. And five he's great right tunnel vision. Right,
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  Speaker 2: So you had jeb Rick Scott, Rod Desanchez. They've all
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: done great things.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: And what do we see.
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  Speaker 2: We see Americans move into states that that that are
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: moving to a state like Florida. The legislature has understood that.
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: My concern is right, as you know, preston iron sharpens iron,
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: and they have super majorities in the legislature, some of
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: them as I think it was Coach Bowden or urban Meyer.
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: Somebody once said that they they were they were born
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: on third base and they think they hit a triple. Okay,
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  Speaker 2: some of the legislators are benefiting from what has come
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: before them.
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  Speaker 1: So my hope without fully understanding how we got there.
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  Speaker 2: Correct, So my hope is, and that's our role at
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  Speaker 2: the James Madison Institute. A good policy is good politics.
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  Speaker 1: Right.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, So we have to continue to focus on the
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  Speaker 2: principled policies of lower taxes, fewer regulations supporting small business,
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  Speaker 2: allowing Floridians to choose their version of the American dream,
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  Speaker 2: and hopefully this legislature will continue to understand how we
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: got here and why we need to stay here. Perfect example,
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  Speaker 2: last year, trial lawyers tried to really clawback all the
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: reforms that we had in place to beat down all
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: those billboard trial lawyers. Fortunately we held them off, but
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: you know, success is never final, so we have work
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: to do always.
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  Speaker 1: Every year. We've talked about the piece you've got in
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: the Fox News website. Let's circle back to the legislative session,
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  Speaker 1: and I know that we've talked at some point about
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  Speaker 1: property tax it looks as though it's stalling.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: Well. The governor has said early on that he wanted
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: to have a special session that focuses solely on property taxes.
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: Right because and there's a point. I mean, the Florida
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: legislature meets nine weeks a year, so it is a
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: it is a bum rush to get everything done. And
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  Speaker 2: his philosophy is, let's set that aside for a special session. Okay,
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  Speaker 2: I'm sure there's no intent that it also increases the
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: amount of pressure on these folks to pass some meaningful property.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: I'm sure that has nothing to do with a special session.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: But and they want to go home in politic right,
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  Speaker 2: because this is an election year. So the governor's smart,
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  Speaker 2: I mean, he's we know, I'll know that there are
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: some things in the legislature now that are that are
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: going through, but there's so many of them it's still
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: too early to know.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Does the number endanger the whole idea because so much
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: muddy is the whole thing and causes people to just
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  Speaker 1: tune it out. You can, you can?
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  Speaker 2: I mean obviously they are very smart legislators that can
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  Speaker 2: kind of move things along and tack this to that
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  Speaker 2: bill and you know move you know, the sausage making
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  Speaker 2: that nobody likes about politics. But I do believe something
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: meaningful is going to get done. I mean, we have
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: seen the CFO travel the state and highlight in red
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  Speaker 2: counties and in blue counties at numerous press conferences. Full disclosure.
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  Speaker 2: JMI has spoken at almost all of his press conferences waste,
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  Speaker 2: you know, spending money on things that maybe government not
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: maybe government should not be spending their money on, right,
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  Speaker 2: So there is.
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  Speaker 1: To justify the increased amount of revenue that they're taking.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: That's right, that's right. So there is opportunity for waste
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: to be cut out, you know, obviously. So the reality
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  Speaker 1: the question though, back to your question, is where where
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: do we go from here? And I don't know.
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: They could raise this the homestead exemption to I don't know,
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: let's just pick a number million dollars.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know. It's kind of like.
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: When Trump raised the standard deduction massively in the Big
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: Beautiful Bill, right or actually in twenty sixteen, but renewed
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: in the Big Beautiful Bill. Simplifies things people under a
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: million get at, you know, their taxes. What I don't
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: want to happen pressing and that this makes me nervous,
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: is we give people over sixty five this tax break,
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: and we give veterans this tax break, and first responders
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: this tax break. I'm four the people over sixty five,
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: veterans and first responders getting tax breaks. But it should
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: be everybody, absolutely it should. So it should be simple. Yep,
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: it should be easy. That's the definition of fairness across
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: the board. That's right, because think about it, if you
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: I mean if they put something for someone over sixty
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: five on the ballot, how many thirty year olds are
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: going to vote for that?
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  Speaker 1: Even bother to think about it. They're thirty five years away.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: My children are trying or are going to eventually move
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: back to Tallahassee. They're going to want to buy a home.
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: They're not thinking about that.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Only if they, like their parents are in laws or
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: they get to think about that, right.
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: Right, right, So it needs to be simple, it needs
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: to be broad, and it needs to be significant, like
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: massively significant. So for us at JMI, I'll say real quick,
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: we think the simplest thing is to have a levy
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: cap where you tell local municipalities this is how much
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: you can spend, not what you can spend it on,
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: but this is how much you can spend. So since
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: pre COVID, you know, the money at the local level,
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: spending has gone up to explode it to Some of
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: it's COVID money, some of it's just the way local
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: municipalably spend money. So roll it back, roll it back.
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: I don't know twenty twenty two spending twenty twenty three,
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: some people think twenty nineteen. I think that's too far back.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: Because there has been massive inflation and population growth. So
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: let's say you roll it back to twenty twenty two,
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: you cap it at the local level, and you say
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: you can spend what you spent in twenty twenty two.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Make it work.
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: We all have to deal with our budget, but then
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: index it to population growth and inflation CPI. That simplifies
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: things because that catches fast growing counties like call your
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: County in Naples and Palm Beach County and Palm Beach
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: and Orange County and Orlando. But it also protects rural
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: counties like Madison County and Gadsting County where if you
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: just if you just you know, put on a million
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: dollar home set exemption and those counties are going to
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: get hammered. But if you roll back their spending to
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: say twenty twenty two, and you say population and inflation,
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: they get to have room to maneuver. And then you're
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: not telling them how to spend, you're telling them how
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: much they can spend.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: There's a big difference. Yeah, It inevitably comes back to
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: we wish informed voters then deciding based on the priorities
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: that local elected officials make on spending, whether they like
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: it or not correct. Correct.
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: The whole discussion right now at the Leon County school
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: Board and where the money and whether to close schools,
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: let them have it out. That's between them. State needs
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: to stay out of that. But here's how much you
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: can spend because you guys, everybody, not just Leon County,
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: have been spending like drunken sailors, right
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: And they're looking to tax us by thirty million more, right,