Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / SpaceX Starship Flight 12 Update - Hardware Details, Flight Information, News from Starbase Texas

Transcript

SpaceX Starship Flight 12 Update - Hardware Details, Flight Information, News from Starbase Texas · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:00
  SpaceX is preparing to launch the first Block 3 Starship.
• 0:04
  Flight 12 will fly Booster 19 and Ship 39, two vehicles that
• 0:07
  look similar to the ships and boosters that came before them
• 0:10
  but are fundamentally different under the skin.
• 0:13
  Block 3 is the first orbital capable generation of this
• 0:16
  system. Every flight before this was a
• 0:18
  technology demonstration. Flight 12 is the beginning of
• 0:22
  the operational era. The launch window opens in late
• 0:25
  February or March of 2026, which means we are roughly 6 to 10
• 0:30
  weeks away from watching Raptor 3 engines fire in space for the
• 0:35
  first time. Now that part is wild.
• 0:37
  SpaceX has never flown Raptor 3 on an orbital mission. 33 of
• 0:41
  them willpower the booster. 6 willpower the ship.
• 0:44
  If this works, the path to orbital refueling in June and a
• 0:47
  lunar landing demonstration in 2027 is a clear runway.
• 0:50
  If it does not, though, NASA's Artemis program has 0 backup
• 0:55
  plan. Booster 19 was fully stacked on
• 0:57
  December 24th, 2025. Space completed the assembly in
• 1:01
  25 days, half the time it took to stack Booster 17, the final
• 1:05
  Block 1 vehicle. Now that production speed is
• 1:08
  crazy. Block 3 boosters are
• 1:09
  approximately 1.5 meters taller than Block 2, with an integrated
• 1:13
  vented interstage fused directly into the methane tank.
• 1:16
  Now the unpressurized interstage section that added structural
• 1:20
  mass on earlier boosters is completely gone.
• 1:23
  The 33 Raptor 3 engines generate an estimated 9240 metric tons of
• 1:29
  thrust at sea level, compared to 7590 metric tons in Block 2.
• 1:34
  That is a 19 to 22% increase. And we're going to talk about
• 1:37
  what changed in the engine design today, why SpaceX is not
• 1:40
  attempting a booster catch on this flight, and what this COPD
• 1:43
  failure on booster 18 means for ship 39.
• 1:46
  And we'll get right into that right after this very short
• 1:49
  break. Raptor 3 is the new power plant.
• 1:52
  Each engine produces approximately 280 metric tons of
• 1:54
  thrust at sea level, compared to 2:30 and 2:35 metric tons for
• 1:58
  Raptor 2. That's a 40 5 to 50 metric ton
• 2:01
  increase per engine. Chamber pressure rises to
• 2:05
  roughly 350 bar, up from 300 bar on the previous version.
• 2:09
  Despite all the additional performance, Raptor 3 is lighter
• 2:12
  than Raptor 2. The design is simpler, the part
• 2:14
  count is much lower, and manufacturing has speed up, and
• 2:18
  SpaceX needs that production speed to hit the launch cadence
• 2:21
  required for Starlink deployments, orbital refueling
• 2:25
  operations, and eventually Mars missions.
• 2:27
  Raptor 3 also supports multiple lights and vacuum, which is
• 2:31
  essential for deorbit burns and the propellant transfer
• 2:34
  demonstrations planned for later this year.
• 2:36
  Ship 39 was fully stacked in November 2025.
• 2:39
  It is also approximately 1.5 meters taller than Block 2
• 2:42
  ships, with a redesigned hot staging ring that integrates
• 2:45
  more efficiently with the booster interface.
• 2:47
  The forward flaps have been repositioned and resized to
• 2:50
  minimize reentry heating while maintaining control authority.
• 2:54
  The tile design has been up. 6 Raptor 3 engines power the upper
• 2:57
  stage, each capable of roughly 200 80 metric tons of thrust and
• 3:02
  vacuum optimized configuration and Block 3 ships also
• 3:05
  incorporate hardware for in space refueling operations,
• 3:09
  including docking ports and a redesigned quick disconnect that
• 3:13
  makes them suitable for orbital propellant transfer tests
• 3:16
  planned for June of this year. In late November 2025, Booster
• 3:20
  18 experienced a liquid oxygen tank rupture during gas system
• 3:25
  testing at Massey's outpost. SpaceX attributed the failure to
• 3:28
  a composite overwrapped pressure vessel, or COPV, located near
• 3:32
  the tanks chimes. The COPV is a high pressure
• 3:35
  container made of metal lined with composite fiber used to
• 3:39
  store gases like helium and nitrogen that pressurize the
• 3:42
  propellant tanks. The failure destroyed Booster 18
• 3:45
  before it even flew. In response, SpaceX conducted A
• 3:48
  precautionary inspection of Ship 39 and likely replaced COP VS on
• 3:53
  the vehicle with upgraded versions featuring additional
• 3:56
  composite fiber layers and improved thermal and vibration.
• 4:00
  Test tank B18 Point 1A Block 3 booster test article underwent
• 4:05
  extensive cryogenic load testing in mid-december, including 15
• 4:09
  hour continuous load cycles to validate the new COPD design
• 4:13
  under extreme reusability scenarios.
• 4:15
  Now I've been digging through the analytics of the show and
• 4:17
  noticed that 37% of you are actually following this channel
• 4:20
  and I love you. Thank you so much for all of
• 4:23
  your support and the other 63% of you haven't hit the follower
• 4:26
  subscribe button. And I've been an independent
• 4:28
  journalist covering SpaceX, Elon Musk, and Space Flight and tech
• 4:31
  for the last seven years. And I'll continue for the next
• 4:34
  10 years. And all I ask for you is one
• 4:36
  second of your time to hit the follow or subscribe button on
• 4:39
  whatever platform you're listening or watching right now.
• 4:42
  Thank you so much. Now, Flight 12 will be the first
• 4:45
  orbital launch from Pad 2 at Starbase.
• 4:48
  The tower was fully stacked in 2024.
• 4:49
  The orbital launch mount was installed in May 2025.
• 4:52
  Ground systems integration is now in progress.
• 4:55
  Pad 2 is Spacex's next generation launchpad
• 4:59
  architecture and will serve as the template for all future
• 5:02
  Starship facilities, including LC39A at Kennedy Space Center
• 5:06
  and SLC 37 at Cape Canaveral. And one critical innovation is
• 5:10
  the elimination of Raptor quick disconnects on the boosters.
• 5:14
  Propellant loading now relies on 2 dedicated booster quick
• 5:17
  disconnects, one for liquid methane and one for liquid
• 5:20
  oxygen, simplifying assembly and reducing interface complexity.
• 5:25
  And the flame trench has been upgraded with a dual flame
• 5:27
  bucket configuration, one at each end and effectively
• 5:30
  doubling thermal capacity to support higher Raptor 3 thrust.
• 5:35
  SpaceX will not attempt to catch booster 19 at the pad.
• 5:38
  That is a conservative decision, reflecting the unknown
• 5:41
  surrounding Raptor 3 engine performance and the risks of the
• 5:45
  new hot staging ring design. Instead, the booster will
• 5:49
  execute a boost, backburn and splashdown in the Gulf of MEX.
• 5:52
  The grid fin configuration has been reduced from 4 fins to
• 5:55
  three arranged in a ninety 9180° pattern and reposition lower on
• 5:59
  the vehicle to reduce thermal exposure during stage
• 6:03
  separation, and these fins also serve as dual purpose catch
• 6:06
  points for future flights. The reduced thermal environment
• 6:08
  will be validated during Flight 12 and the data will inform
• 6:12
  whether SpaceX attempts a booster catch on Flight 13 or at
• 6:17
  a later flight. Ship 39 will attempt a
• 6:19
  controlled reentry over the Indian Ocean with all thermal
• 6:22
  protection intact, unlike Flights 10 and 11 which
• 6:24
  intentionally stress tested the heat shield by removing tiles
• 6:27
  and vulnerable areas. Flight 12 will pursue a cleaner
• 6:31
  re entry profile and the mission objectives include validating
• 6:34
  the new tile design, demonstrating in Space Raptor 3
• 6:38
  relight capabilities, also testing guidance algorithms
• 6:42
  tuned for Block 3's different mass distribution and
• 6:45
  aerodynamics, and also gathering real world data on heat shield
• 6:50
  performance. Ship 39 will execute a landing
• 6:53
  flip, landing burn sequence and a soft splashdown.
• 6:56
  No operational payload will be deployed.
• 6:58
  Starlink deployment is expected on consequent block three
• 7:00
  flights once systems prove reliable in orbit and this
• 7:04
  testing timeline is very tight. As of early January 2026,
• 7:08
  Booster 19 is fully stacked and undergoing final preparation for
• 7:11
  cryogenic proof testing. That test loads the structure
• 7:14
  with cryogenic propellant to validate all welds in structural
• 7:17
  integrity. Booster 19 static fire is
• 7:19
  projected for mid January and the first hot fire test of all
• 7:23
  33 wrapped to three engines. Ship 39 cryogenic testing
• 7:26
  follows, then ship 39 static fire in late January.
• 7:29
  The wet dresser rehearsal, a full countdown simulation with
• 7:32
  propellant loading and import procedures is expected in early
• 7:35
  February. The FCC communications window
• 7:37
  opens January 23rd and extends through June 28th, 2026.
• 7:41
  The more likely launch date is late February or March 2026,
• 7:44
  depending on test completions. And the critical path requires
• 7:47
  approximately 8 to 12 weeks from current status to first launch
• 7:51
  attempt. And NASA's Artemis program
• 7:54
  depends on Starship success. This is huge.
• 7:56
  The agency has no alternative to the human Landing system than
• 7:59
  space. The orbital refueling
• 8:01
  demonstration planned for June of 2026 is the milestone that
• 8:05
  unlocks NASA's confidence in Starship for lunar missions.
• 8:08
  That demonstration requires 2 Starship launches, with one
• 8:11
  vehicle serving as a tanker and transferring propellant to the
• 8:14
  other in orbit. Any delay in Flight 12 cascades
• 8:17
  through the entire 2026 road map.
• 8:19
  If the refueling demo slips in time, so does the uncrewed lunar
• 8:23
  landing demonstration targeted for 2027.
• 8:26
  If that slips, the crew lunar landing on Artemis 3 in 2028
• 8:31
  becomes uncertain. Spacex's 2026 road map depends
• 8:34
  on Flight 12. Succeeding quarter one brings
• 8:36
  Block 3 validation with Raptor 3 performance data and hot staging
• 8:40
  ring proof. Quarter 2 brings the orbital
• 8:42
  refueling demonstration. The second-half of 2026 brings
• 8:46
  operational missions, including the Starling V3 test satellites
• 8:49
  and possibly early Human Landing System hardware validation
• 8:52
  flights. And by 2027, SpaceX is targeting
• 8:56
  an uncrewed lunar landing. By 2028, the goal is a prude
• 9:00
  return to the moon. It's an aggressive timeline, but
• 9:02
  it's also the timeline. NASA's counting on Blue Origins.
• 9:05
  New Glenn remains in development.
• 9:07
  China's Long March 9 program is proceeding in parallel.
• 9:11
  The geopolitical stakes of Spacex's exec, The geopolitical
• 9:15
  stakes of Spacex's execution are absolutely real.
• 9:18
  Flight 12 is not a test. It's a foundation for everything
• 9:21
  that comes next. For SpaceX.
• 9:23
  These are the lessons of 11 prior flights.
• 9:26
  The design is streamlined manufacturing a simplified
• 9:29
  structures integrated engine performance is tailored for
• 9:32
  usability. Spacex's iterative approach
• 9:35
  validating design changes on test articles before flying
• 9:38
  operation of vehicles has reduced the risk of encountering
• 9:41
  the same COPV failures in destroyed booster. 1839 COPV
• 9:45
  swap in the extended test campaign AB one 8.1 are amazing.
• 9:50
  Raptor 3 has undergone extensive ground testing, but on orbit
• 9:53
  validation introduces variables that ground test can't
• 9:56
  replicate. That is why SpaceX is forgoing
• 9:58
  the booster catch prior, prioritizing data over the
• 10:01
  spectacle of catching the booster.
• 10:03
  Success of Flight 12 clears the path forward, and failure would
• 10:07
  set the program back months, possibly a year, and create
• 10:10
  uncertainty that extends all the way to NASA headquarters.