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Geopolitics, Oil Spikes, and the AI Barbell · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Rise and shine , Spy Traders !
• 0:02
  It’s 6 am on Monday , April 20th , 2026 , out here on the Pacific coast .
• 0:08
  I’m your host , Sunny Portfolio , and we have a lot to unpack this morning as the markets wake up to a bit of a tugofwar .
• 0:15
  Last week was one for the history books .
• 0:18
  We saw the S&P 500 , or the SPY as we like to call it , cross that massive 7,100 mark to close at 7,126.06 .
• 0:29
  The Nasdaq notched thirteen straight days of wins , ending at 24,468.48 .
• 0:36
  But , as often happens , the weekend brought some news that has futures looking a little red today .
• 0:42
  We are dealing with a USIran standoff in the Middle East .
• 0:46
  Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz , and that has sent Brent oil prices jumping over 5% to about 95 dollars and 62 cents a barrel .
• 0:57
  This is creating some volatility because it threatens to push inflation even higher than the 3.8% we saw in March , which keeps the Federal Reserve in a higher for longer mood with interest rates .
• 1:08
  Looking at sectors , Technology is still the superstar .
• 1:12
  We are looking at a huge 45% jump in earnings for Q1 .
• 1:17
  It is not just about apps anymore ; it is about Physical AI and the hardware that runs it .
• 1:22
  On the flip side , Health Care is lagging .
• 1:26
  UnitedHealth Group , or UNH , has had a rough year due to funding shortfalls , but they report earnings tomorrow , and a small win there could actually help the whole sector bounce back .
• 1:37
  In the world of Industrials , GE Aerospace and Caterpillar are staying resilient as we build more things here at home .
• 1:44
  GE Aerospace is actually expected to see 9.4% profit growth when they report tomorrow morning .
• 1:51
  So , how should we play this ?
• 1:53
  I am looking at a Barbell Strategy today .
• 1:56
  On one side , keep your growth going .
• 1:58
  The Invesco QQQ Trust or the XLK tech fund are your best bets because that is where the earnings are .
• 2:05
  Specifically , keep an eye on Tesla , ticker TSLA .
• 2:09
  They report this Wednesday , and if they show progress on their Terafab AI facility , that stock could really take off despite their recent delivery miss .
• 2:19
  On the other side of the barbell , you need to protect yourself from inflation .
• 2:24
  I like the Energy Select Sector SPDR , ticker XLE , and some Gold through the GLD ETF .
• 2:32
  Specifically , ExxonMobil is a great hedge right now because of those rising oil prices .
• 2:38
  For quality , look at GE Aerospace .
• 2:41
  If it dips today before its earnings report tomorrow , it might be a great time to pick some up given their massive 190 billion dollar backlog .
• 2:51
  Finally , for safety , keep some money in bonds like the iShares Core U.S.
• 2:55
  Aggregate Bond ETF , ticker BND , to keep your core stable while the geopolitical dust settles .
• 3:02
  That is the outlook for this Monday morning .
• 3:05
  Stay sharp , watch those levels , and I will be back in a few hours with another update .
• 3:11
  Happy trading !