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Best Bets NFL Week 13 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Today is our week thirteen, Thursday NFL episode we are
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: flying through this season. This is the episode where we
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: get feedback from the wise guys who listened to the show.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Simon was already previewing some of that for me before
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: we came out in the air. We will make our
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: survivor pick and build our money line Underdog Round Robin.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: We will give out our Foxhole bet and our Big
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Balls bet of the Week. We will also narrow down
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: our picks for the free to play Favorite Podcast one
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest because, as
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Colin Cowhard, our old buddy likes to say, there's a
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: sea money out.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: There, because there's a sea of money out there.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Follow along with our official bets, you can check them
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: out on the contest website Favorites dot Action Network dot
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: com when we lock them in before kickoff on Sunday.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: If you prefer using the award winning Action app, you
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: can also track all the bets. Simon and I lock
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: in by following two accounts, the Phase five and the
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast. It's time to bring in my co host,
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: my companion, my capadre, my b ff. I will be
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: hugging him all day long on Sunday at our live
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: event Professional Better Simon Hunter Heado, soymen.
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: Hello Chet. Sometimes when you say my name, I hear
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: I just hear the Saturday Night Saturday Night Live skit
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: like hello, my name is Simon. That's where it comes from.
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: It is. It's funny every time you do it, pops
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: in my head.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: That's exactly. It's like the most British name. My name
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: is Soymon. That's an old that's an old Mike Meyer
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: skid for those and he's uh, Simon, I like drawrings.
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: Hello, my name is Simon to do jewelry.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the favorite podcast is presented by Bet
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  Speaker 1: three six five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.
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  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Sign before we get to
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: sharp calls. I want to remind people this is the
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: last chance to RSVP for the Favorites Live show December
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: third at the Shepherd and the Knucklehead in Beautiful Hoboken,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: New Jersey. Enjoy the late afternoon games, then see us
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: record our Sunday recap show live and in person at
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: seven point thirty right before Sunday Night football Prizes, drinks,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: warm embraces from Me and Simon, so much more, just
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: RSVP using the link in the episode description. I think
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have to set a line on how long
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: after the show ends before Chad skidaddles and goes to bed. Yeah.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: I'm going with that because that'll be a long day
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: for us. Yeah, really long day, because We're gonna do
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Convince Me live in the studio that morning, also presented
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: by BED three sixty five. I'm gonna get up very
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: early in Connecticut, take the train in, and then we
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: got a whole day of watching games. You're gonna be
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: drinking because we're gonna be watching the Eagles and the Niners,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: and it's gonna be stressful for both of us. And
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: then we got to do a show. I'm gonna be pooped.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be.
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: Fun for me. I got a client dinner Saturday night,
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: meeting with some big Times, taking me some nice steak dinner.
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: Wake up, go to breakfast, maybe with Chad. We'll see.
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: Then go do the show, do our live show, and
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: then I have another party. Think our live show int
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: at nine point thirty. Will take a cab or whatever
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: back to New York at ten and I have to
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: go to a party that started at like nine o'clock
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: that ends at one.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: So what are you talking about? A party? A party?
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: I have friends outside of you chat you'd be shocked
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: to know. You'd be shocked to know this. But I'm
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: not much of a club scene guy. But what am
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: I doing here? It's like, how am I not going
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: to go out and party on a Sunday night. You
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: only live once, so it's gonna be a long day,
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: a lot, a lot of booze, and so I don't
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: know if people. People are telling me they're gonna keep me
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: shots at our event. I don't know if I can
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: do with people. I'm not much of a drinker, but
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: if you want to buy me a beer, I won't
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: say not. I'll drink a beer.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: All right. Well, listen, Week thirteen kickoff is approaching. I
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: can't wait to see everybody. We've got opportunities all over
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: the board. No more dailly dallying. It's time for.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Sharp calls.
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain range telephone range.
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: Somebody saying, I'll start with just the ones I'm split
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: on and games I reevaluated just because I'm hearing from
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: other guys about it and obviously weigh their opinions heavily.
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: Let's start with the Houston Texans in Denver. I liked Denver.
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: I thought I was getting a good number. The pros
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: like Houston. Man, they like Houston even at minus three
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: and a half. So interesting game there. Yeah, I thought
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: Denver's gonna be one of my bigger bets of the week.
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: The boys. They like Houston. They think they're being undervalue here,
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: so of course this game's gonna land right on three
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: and them. I feel like an idiot for not betting
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: this one, but for sure I'll take what they're saying.
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: I'll stay away from it from now. Another game is
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: split on that. I really like Tennessee Titans. Talked to
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: a couple of pros they like the Colts in this spot.
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man, I think I feel like they're
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: putting too much on Minshew and not not drinking the
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: Verbel koolid enough. Like Raybel just gets disrespected all the time,
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: and this just feels like a disrespected Rabel spot where
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: he's still a dog.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: You and I will talk about this more because I'm
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: with you. Fucking love the Titans here.
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: Me too, love the Titans. A couple guys like the Saints.
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: I can't get there. I just I don't care if
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: their car is acting super tough in the media room.
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: The dude's terrible in the reds He's just horrible. And
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: there's gonna be points in this game, So you know,
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: this could be the classic Taysom Hill game. Where somehow
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: he shows up and he's the reason this game is close.
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: But my minus four still, how do you not take Detroit? Now?
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: It makes sense why it stayed at four to four
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: and a half because the pros are the ones coming
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: in hitting this down. They like the Saints, they like
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: him at home in this spot. Unless Detroit's broken and
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: Golf is broken, this number does not make sense to me.
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: And I feel like they're betting on Golf being broken
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: because he's had two back to back really bad performances
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: and he's kind of reverted back to those old ways
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: of not taking what the defense gives him. He's trying
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: to force in passes and it's not working. Like he's
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: turning over the ball. I mean, back to back games,
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: multiple turnovers. That's the old Golf. Another team they like Panthers.
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: You're never going to talk me into it, so I'm
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: gonna waste my breath on it. I'm with you, this
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: is this is the one Chad wants to get to.
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: A couple pros calling up and joked about what Chad
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: knew and asked me what Chad knows about Cleveland? Because
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: Chad was so animated and was so confident taking Cleveland
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: just two days ago, and now we're getting worded that's
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: Joe Flacco is going to be the starting quarterback. Amazing
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: stat from Evan Joe Flacco one and ten straight up
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: and his last eleven starts pretty incredible. I think they're
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: with Chad, but they're kind of It was kind of
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: more like a jokie call where it's like, who is
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: betting Cleveland this week other than their professionals, right, Like
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: who is going to be betting Cleveland? My pushback is,
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: how do you make a number on this when it's
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: Joe Flacco? Like, who has the right number for this
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: game when it's Joe Flacco? Vegas thinks they do. I mean,
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: they hung this number early, and they've hung it all
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: week and they've been taking money all week. I went
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: in and bet on the Rams, no limit, like they
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: took them money, which made me even more scared and
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: more confident, right because it was like, what you're okay
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: with taking these bets on the Rams at this number?
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: So weird? That number is not Budge, But the pros
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: that they agree with Chad. They think Cleveland's the sharp side.
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: They see this game ended on a three. It feels risky,
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: but once again, that's that's like betting on Joe flaccom
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: Me and Chad had been there many of times, and
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: it looks like we're back in twenty twenty three. Been
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: on Flaco for the last one or I guess two
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: the last ones real quick, Green Bay. They love the bet.
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: They thought, like Chad, I think you brought up that
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: I should have made that. My Simon says, had multiple
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: pro say why didn't you make it that your bet?
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: Like that's that was never going to stay at six
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: and a half. Some books might still the six and
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: a half. I'm seeing most books now at six, so.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: I don't see it anywhere it's been. It's been locked
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: at six for more than twenty four hours.
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: And this to me is the definition of pros rustows.
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: All the teasers, the money line parlays. So say, I've
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: talked to five different book makers now that I'm home,
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: which is I've missed so much going from the books,
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: just talking to people being in the books. All the teasers,
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: every teaser they've gotten so far, say three team teaser,
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: two team teasers. It's all Chiefs, Chargers and cowboys. They
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: can't stop getting all these teasers. So, I mean, last
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: week they had the biggest break they could get with
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: Detroit losing and that early slate, and that destroyed so
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: many teasers. They could get it this Thursday if somehow
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: the Cowboys don't cover a three and a half. Three
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: numbers so pretty interesting. So many people are all in
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: on this Chiefs team just after one good game. Really,
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: I honestly thought the Packers would be a public dog
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: just because they played so well in a standalone game
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: on Thanksgiving. Interesting that they don't. They don't buy it.
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: Everyone's on the Chiefs, even though this number keeps dropping
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: and the last one mean chedd are gonna talk a
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: bunch about the pros. People already know the pros. They
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: love the forty nine ers. They've moved the number. It's
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: up to three. I don't know a single pro that's
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: taken the three. They've all taken in the one, the two,
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: and the two and a half. None of them are
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: touching the three. I've heard some buyback on the three.
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: If you got the forty nine ers at minus one,
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: if you got them the plus one, you got a
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: great middle opportunity here. So if you've been waiting to
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: know what the pros have been doing in this game.
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: I think ninety percent got a good number on the
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: forty nine ers and they're just gonna hold on it,
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: and I believe the public at this point. To me, again,
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: I have no idea what the public will do with this.
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: I think they're gonna end up taking the Eagles. And
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: as an Eagles fan, if this doesn't go below two
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: and a half, it feels like we're dead. Like it
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: feels like as an egles better in a backer, like
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: the books know something here. They don't move five points
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: without professional money and not set people up. So everyone
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: out there, if you're just you know, an average better
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: and you're like, how is a team with one loss
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: at home that's only lost one game in two years
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: at home a three point underdog? The books they know
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: what they're doing. They're trying to set people up here.
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: But I'm still not gonna let it scare me off.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Chat.
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: If it's three three and a half in our contest,
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be hard for me to pass on that
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: number because Lane Johnson, like, I've talked to multiple people
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: and they say he's gonna play, and that's a big
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: deal to me. Like that to me, once he gets cleared,
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: I could see this number move off the three. I
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: could see it move half a point to two and
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: a half and close the two and a half comes Sunday.
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I'll go against my brethren because again, I
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: might know a handful of pros that've taken the Eagles,
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: but it's only a plus three and it's mainly just
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: to kind of get the middle position. It's really not
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: confidently betting this Eagles team.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: So yeah, that's been kind. That's been the line of
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: demarcation here. Yeah, totally all right, this is this is good.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: We got a lot of stuff to dig in on
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: because I have so many thoughts on these games and
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: what the sharps are saying and what you're saying, and
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: how we're gonna end up to five and that San
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Francisco Philly game is the most exciting game we've had
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: all year. As a reminder, catch every episode of The
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. For I was enjoying on YouTube.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. I mean, we got a
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: narrow down our picks and our games and get to
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: the fox hole and the big balls and survivor and etc.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: At this point, I've made fewer bets during the week
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: than I have all year because these lines haven't moved
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: very much other than that Eagles Niners game. And I
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: cannot believe we're gonna have to sweat that game with
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: a group of our hundreds of our closest friends on
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Saturday afternoon on Sunday afternoon, and then we're gonna have
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: to go right into the podcast afterwards. So first game up, Detroit,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: four point favorites. You like this a lot. Early in
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: the week, you were getting nervous that it wasn't moving
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: off of four. You didn't understand why it wasn't moving
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: off of four. It went to four and a half,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: went immediately back down to four. Not surprising that it
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: hasn't moved more and sooner. Detroit is the total bets
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: on Detroit eight. That's the highest for any team this season. No,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: eighty two percent is the highest for any team this season.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Detroit is at eighty six percent as of Wednesday night.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: So we're looking at a scenario where we've got eighty
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: percent or more on the road favorite, which tends to
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: be a good spot for the Dogs.
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, almost every almost every time, this is like the
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: time to take the dog. So yeah, it makes you
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: nervous where It's like I wanted to put this at
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: one our five and maybe I'll just avoid it just
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: because I know that the Pros got a bunch of
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: guys I talk to. They love the Saints at four
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: to four and a half, and they're happy to back
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: this defense at home here, and I just I'm just
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: not seeing it, Like I can't see the reason to
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: take the Saints here just because offensively, I think Detroit
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: is so far ahead of them, even if Detroit's defense
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: is terrible. And yes, this could be a great get
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: right spot for Derek Carr and this offense because they
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: got the talent. I mean we talk all the time,
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: like between the twenties, they can move the ball up
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: and down the field. They got Kamara alve it like
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: they have all these great weapons. But I can't. I
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: can't get there.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: It's just I had this number way bigger, and you
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: know this is maybe I'm just misreading this game and
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: I haven't adjusted enough to Detroit because maybe I overrated
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: Detroit this point. And I talked early in the season,
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: I moved them whatever a couple of weeks ago, I
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: moved them above the Cowboys and probably should adjust it. Right,
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: the Cowboys are clearly a better team than them, more
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: complete team, just because defensively they can get stops where
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: it doesn't seem like Detroit's defense can get the stops
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: right now, like their secondary is really suspect. And last
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: year they fired their dB coach and it flipped their
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: whole season, like all of a sudden, their defense completely
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: changed after firing, and I think what they went nine
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: to one down the stretch something crazy like that. Yeah,
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: then the season. I was surprised they didn't fire the
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: dB coach after that Green Bay game, like I thought
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: they were going to make some type of move because
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: it's getting away from him here right like, and then this,
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: if they lose this game, that one seed is totally
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: gone like that that that is totally gone here And
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: this would be the biggest one of the season for
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: the Saints, just because just like me, everyone's pounce once
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: for a loss. So a game I really don't know
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: what to deal with, because like I want to take Detroit.
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: My model says take Detroit. But the pros and even
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: Chad just talked about this Situationally, I usually love taking
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: dogs here in this spot, so might end up just
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: avoiding this one altogether.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: Well, it's also interesting to me beyond the defensive issues.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: I just think strategically the game plan for Dan Campbell, who,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: for all his risk taking and decision making, he's very
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: strategic about his risk taking and very conservative for lack
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: of a better term about his risk taking. He doesn't win.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: The percentages are to his advantage, and he's just willing
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: to do it every time.
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: Every week it's different and you don't know what it's
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: going to take.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Do not ever feel bad about a win, man.
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: They're too hard to come by, and we will accept it.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: He is an analytically minded coach, but I think he
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: also is a brilliant football coach, and he knows his
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: quarterback has been struggling and making a lot of mistakes,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: and that they have a powerhouse offensive line, they have
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: a powerhouse, dynamic rhythm in Brews backfield, and this is
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: an opportunity for him to run the ball down the
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: throat of a defense that is not very good in
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: this situation. So it just might be a close game
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: by virtual of the fact that they're going to have
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: a conservative play calling strategy by running the ball a lot.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: I think Detroit's going to win the game. I think
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: they're a much better team. I don't think we want
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: to back New Orleans in any scenario. So it's Detroit
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: or nothing. And it's just a question of do we
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: feel good about the number and what if someone know
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: that we're not thinking about, which probably takes it off
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: the list because it makes us nervous.
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's just it. I no longer see that
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: being as the favorite we will take in the contest,
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: like there's other favorites. Like I'd even rather take the
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: forty nine ers at two and a half than take
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: this Detroit team, because at least with the forty nine ers,
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: it's like they're playing their best football right now, like
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: Detroit they're not.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: So look, we're gonna talk about the Niners because I'm
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: in love with this team, and I'm in love with
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: this side. Up to three at the two and a half,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: and so we're gonna we're gonna have to get there.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: But I want to save that Atlanta at the New
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: York Jets. So this number was at three, it got
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: down to two and a half. It's gone back and forth,
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: and I still feel like the Jets are the right
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: side here. I'm surprised there wasn't a conversation and sharp
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: calls about the Jets a little.
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: Bit, but no one's putting big money on it because
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: I think everyone has the same view as me. Is
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: the fear is this team as quick like that's the
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: fear and the big motivator though, is Rogers came back,
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: and I'm hoping that might be the spark they needed,
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: right seeing him back out there, because that's why I
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: think he came back, Like I assumed he was probably
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: gonna come back in another week or two, but he
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: just moved it up because they see it's slipping away.
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: Like everyone anyone that's played football or watches football, he
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: kind of consensed these things with teams. And the Jets
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: are four and seven that game. I mean that they
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: were in it, they should have probably beat Miami or
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: at least made it more competitive. But you throw a
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: ninety nine yard hell Mary picked six that just totally
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: sucked the air out of that team, Like you got
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: the turnover, you had to pick six, and then you
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: have your own pick six. Just devastating to them. So
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: look at this one chat. I'm right there with you.
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: It's like, I love the Jets. We're going to Atlanta
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: outdoors after a huge divisional win at home, Like, how
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: do we not take the Jets in the spot?
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: How do we know? I was just simon, we have
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: to do what we know is right. Big balls though
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: even yes, it's that or fossil.
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: Let's make it. No, this is definitely big balls.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: This takes balls, big ball better the week Ne York Jets.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Here we go. We have to yeah, we have to.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Let me give you three stats from Evan. The Falcons
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: four twelve and one against spread after a win under
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Arthur Smith. Owing for this season Arthur Smith the last
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: twenty years, Evan, is this profitability or is this connected
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: to the statue just gave me? Can you tell me
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: in the chat? Profit Okay, the last twenty years, he
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: ranks one hundred and thirty fifth out of one hundred
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: and forty three coaches in terms of profitability, dead to
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: last of the forty nine coaches since he was hired
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. Okay, number one, Number two teams
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: to lose by twenty fours or more of the previous week.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: The Jets facing a team who didn't the Falcons sixty
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread since twenty twenty. Those three teams
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: were bet we already like one of them Washington, We're
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: going to take the other one New York Jets. The
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: third is Arizona, which I might want to. I might
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: want to. I might want to try to convince you
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: on Arizona. But so the Jets like we're doing the
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: right thing.
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: Again, I have no read on their quarterback position, but
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: just looking at both teams, neither team as a quarterback
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: really right. So it's like we're kind of betting on
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: the skill.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Give me the better defense at home outside.
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: That's a big thing to me. It's you're going a
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: good defense at home in a game that again Rogers
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: is back this week. They know that if they don't
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: win this one, basically the season is over. So I'm
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: happy to take the Jets you in the spot.
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: One more thing, I think the total in this is
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: like thirty three thirty four totals of thirty seven or
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: less or now twenty two four and one to the under.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Since twenty twenty, uh thirty eight or less thirty two
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: to eleven and one to the under. So I might
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: want to bet the under in this one too. Yeah,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: India Tennessee. Oh my god, I can't believe we love
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: the Jets and we're going to make him one of
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: our five. Here's what I would say, though, Matt Mitchell, Simon,
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: can I get a reading on this? This line's at
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: two and a half. I think it's very possible it
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: goes back up to three. Can we say that this
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: is our big balls, but we'd like to take it
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: at three if it gets back to three. Can I
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: get a judgment on that? Not how it works, big dog,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: not how it works, Matt Mitchell.
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, right now it's it's minus one twenty minus two
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: and a half Atlanta on bet three six five. So yeah,
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: like we're right there for the three, but technically, Chad,
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: it is two and a half.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: Brother, Well, I just want every want to know. I'm
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: waiting until it gets back to three to officially bet. I. Well,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: let you know it's not gonna matter. Matt Mitchell is
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: such a dick sometimes, even Indianapolis at Tennessee, you and
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: I love the Titans here. As of Tuesday, this was
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: one of your biggest bets since the pod has been reported.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor will be out. I'm actually surprised that the
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: number hasn't moved because it was at one and a
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: half one and really hasn't moved off. For that, I
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: don't know why anyone likes the culture.
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: That's good for us though, because if it flipped to
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: them being a favorite chat we would have getten scared
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: off because we hate that stat about dogs favorites. Yeah,
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: I'm looking at the action apper. Now only one book
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: hasn't at minus one and a half. The rest is
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: that minus one, So this is gonna easily flip. Nothing
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: changed for me. We always played Tennessee in this spot,
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: we live and die with it. We're fading a backup
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: quarterback on the road against a Rabel led defense. How
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: can we not take this like it's just you're a
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: fan of this show, you live and die with us.
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: This is it's just like us take in Pittsburgh just
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: about every week. It's like you got to ride with
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: these certain picks. And we don't always back Tennessee blindly.
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: Especially this year. We've done really well buying in on them,
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: then fading them, buying in on them and then fading them,
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: And to me, this is a byspot. So I'm right
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: there with you, Chad. Like Levis versus banged up Colts secondary,
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: I think he could have an actually big game, Like
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: this is a good match up for him passing wise,
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: So as long as we're not getting some tsunami terrible
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: weather actually, and that might even help us even more.
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: Was gonna say more, But the only thing that may
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: gives me any type of policy here is Chad knows.
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: I just I had zero faith right now this guy
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: Will Levis. But it's it's more bet On Varibel and
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: this defense at home catching points against a team that
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: they've been great, the Colts this year. I mean incredible
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: to be six and five with the backup quarterback, you know,
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: forst year head coach. But these are the kind of
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: spots that these teams just don't win. Like if they
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: win this game, then congrats to the Colts, like they're
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: probably going to be that seventh seed the playoffs. This
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: is usually a scheduled loss, so not shocking. The public
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: is all over the Colts here in the pros they
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: like Tennessee or so Pros vs. Shows game. We're going
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: to back the Pros here every time.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: Two stats that I'm stealing from Chris Raybund, who also
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: talked about this on the Sunday six Pack with Stuckey
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: who Tennessee. He like Tennessee weeks one through six with
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: defensive tackle Grover Stewart in the lineup for the Colts.
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: I love and death research from Chris. This is amazing.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: He's the fucking best fourteenth in EPA without Grover Stewart,
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: who's been out of the lineup because of a PUD
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: suspension thirty first. Meanwhile, Tennessee's run defense number two according
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: to DVA, So there is an opportunity here, Like you
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: just said, take the ball out of Levis's hands, give
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: it to Derrick Henry, make it a shorter game.
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: And that's what they did last week against Carolina. They're like, well,
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: let Carolina make mistakes. We'll just play our game of
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: giving the ball to Derek and on the law the
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: three downs, that's when we'll have will throw, but we
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: won't make him the focal point. And liked I just
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: said it right there. Like Tennessee's run defense, they are
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: really good. Their past defense is terrible.
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: Jeffrey Simmons is just a baller.
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so take away, make make Minshew beat you. I
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: mean I am more than happy to make Minshew have
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: to throw the ball on the road outdoors. So I'm
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: right there with you, Chad. Just we loved that and
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: seeing the spot, and that gives me a little bit more.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: Confident in it all right right now, the quarterbacks were
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: betting on Tim Boyle and Will Levis moving on Miami
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: at Washington. This was Simon says Washington plus nine and
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: a half. I'm a little worried about this one, only
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: because it's becoming a public dog in the same way
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: we were on the Raiders last week and it was
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: a public dog, and you know, Sam Howell is having
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: one of those blow them up kind of years. I
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: do think that the Commander's offense is good and they've
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: got opportunities to score, but their defense is so bad
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: that it's gonna They're gonna have to score every time
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: they have the ball in order to keep up with
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins. So I'm a little I bet it. I'm
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: a little antsy about it.
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they're literally the worst defense against balls that travel
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: more than twenty yards downfield. And what does Miami want
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: to do? They want to push the ball downfield to
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: They're really fast receivers, so your balls make sense, chat,
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: but it's make you feel little better. Supposed get some
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: bad weather, some wind, some rain in Washington for this game, hopefully,
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: I like it. Yeah, that that helps us. I'm now
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: looking at one of the more public books out there
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: that give out their numbers. They have eighty percent of
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: the bets seventy nine percent of the money right now
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: in Miami.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: So oh that's good.
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: Right, So that's It's definitely depends on the books you're
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: looking at it. I like checking the most public book
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: because it really is a great Again, this book takes
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: zero professional money. All they're taking is public money. So
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: it's nice to see that it's eighty eighty pretty much
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: on Miami here. But yeah, the reason we're taking commanders
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: is just the offense. Like in what I would expect
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: to be a back and forth game, I think the
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: offensive Washington stay in it. And just looking at this
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: matchup defensively, people are going to be like, well, look
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: how different Miami's been since, you know, Jalen Ramsey came back,
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: which is true, Like if you just go and watch
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: their defense and how they play, right when he came back,
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: they basically made him half the field, right, they did
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: the Rebus treatment. They're like, you know what, Ramsey half
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: this field, jurors will let Howard and whoever else work
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: on the other side of you. And you know, somehow
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: it's been working. And when I went back and looked
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: about why it's been working, let's have a little peak here.
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: They played the Eagles and they lost seventeen thirty one,
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: and Ramsey came back the next week, right, I think
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: they went to Germany played the Patriots. I'm pretty sure
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: that's what happened, right, They won thirty one seventy oh. No,
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: Then they played the Chiefs in Jerremany. Sorry, they beat
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs fourteen twenty one, had their bye week, then
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: they played the Vegas and the Jets. So in their
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: last four games, they played mac Jones terrible. They lost
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: them a homes by seven points. You know, can't fault
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: them for that. Then they beat Aidan O'Connell twenty to thirteen,
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: and then they beat the Jets thirty four to thirteen.
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: It's like they really haven't faced a good quarterback, right,
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: they kind of When they have played good quarterbacks, these
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: good quarterbacks tend to play well against them. So I
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: don't know how good Sam. How is I know he's
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: not worse than Aid O'Connell and these other guys. They've
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: kind of beat here these last couple of weeks. So
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: we'll see Miami's defense. People say they've improved. This is
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: a good test, Like Eric Lenamy runs an incredible offense.
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: Sam Houise played really well on the offense. We'll see
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: which one breaks first. But yeah, if we wake up Sunday,
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: Chain and you're just like, I can't do it. I
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: can't put Washington in, I'm not going to fight. You're
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: on it, but I'm in on it. I've taken the
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: number like most I was hoping I was going to
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: get to ten. I just knew him back in my
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: mind that was never really going to get there. And yeah,
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: now that we've seen some pros come in on Miami,
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: this could get ten by Sunday. If you want to
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: keep waiting, you can. I just thought all the pros
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: coming on this number just because we're getting a Miami
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: team that's a little overrated outdoors on the road in
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: bad weather. I'm shocked this number has gone up.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: By the way, Washington another one of those teams big
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: loss the week before facing the team that didn't sixty
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread since twenty twenty. Arizona Washington Jets
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Big Home Dogs are on a run right now, home
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: dogs of seven or more since twenty twenty, covering about
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: I'd say close to sixty percent against the spread out
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: of one hundred games. They are fifty nine wins and
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: twenty one to nine and one against the spread since
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: the start of the year, since the start of last year,
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: So percentages are on our side.
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we usually so, like, yeah, long term, this spot's
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: been good to us people.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: So right now New Jersey, New York Jets, Tennessee, Washington,
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: and I don't know, for some reason, we.
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: Gotta find a favorite brother fin of favorite.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: Well, we're going to get there. The last game we
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: want to talk about before we get to the game
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: that we want to talk about, Kansas City at Green Bay.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, you talked a little bit about it. But
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: what's worrying me is this is becoming one of those
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: games where all the wise guys love Green Bay because
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: they think they're seeing something in Jordan Love. You did
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: your favorite film room about Jordan Love and his performance
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: and progression EPA per play, expected points per play, amongst
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: QBS since week seven, Jordan Love is ninth, Mahomes is tenth.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Jordan Love ranks inside the top five of EPA success
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: rate since week nine, top five offensive line and every metric.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: The Packers right now, the Chiefs unders are eleven or
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: zero this season in the second half. So like, this
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: is not a team score a lot of points. It's
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: not a team overachieving on offense. Again, it's a Green
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: Bay team that is starting to play a lot better.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: So you know, reasons why everyone loves green Bay and
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: why we're probably going to put him in the contest.
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And I push it back against people keep saying
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: that the Chiefs maybe they figured out God are right,
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: was It's always tough to judges teams after they played
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: divisional games, right, because you know, maybe Mahomes just has
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: their number, right, the Raiders' number, and maybe just has
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: the Chargers number. And if you go look at their
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: schedule this year, when they played the Chargers October twenty second,
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: they won thirty one seventeen. I remember everyone's kept saying, well,
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: it looks like Mahomes figured out the offense again, right,
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: He's kind of got his groove back. The next week
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: they put up nine points against Denver, so again all
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: the questions came back. The following week, they got totally
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: shut out in the second half against Miami. They won
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: twenty one to fourteen, and then they played the Eagles,
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: and then they just again played Vegas. They put up
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: thirty one again, so it's like, did they figure it
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: out offensively or did they just play against a divisional
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: opponent again, So I'm trying to not overreact to it
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: where I'm with people where it's like, this does feel
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: like the public, not public, but the pro's dog of
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: the week, Like every probably talk dude, like Chad just
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: said they like Green Bay. Here. I didn't hear a
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: single guy say he's on the Chiefs. But when I
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: went to the books and made bets, I told you
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: had every guy I talked to, all the bookmakers, it's
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: all Chiefs money. On teasers, parlays, moneyline parlays, it's all
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: Chiefs money. So there's always one of these games every
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: week that just gets broken up. I don't know if
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: I'll be this one, but I feel confident that if
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs do win, it won't be by more than
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: six points. So like I do think six such a
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: key number. It sucks if you miss the six and
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: a half, but I would grab the six, like you're
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: not missing any real value. I still think that's such
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: a key number. So yeah, we've seen it this year.
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: This this Chiefs team doesn't have the weapon that can
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: blow teams out with right. I mean, I'm looking at
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: their schedule right now. They have one really big blowout
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: win and that was again it's the Bears in Week
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: three they won forty one to ten. It's just the
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: rest of their games for the most part, have been
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: really close this year. So that biggest game, Man, we
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: were in it that whole game and then.
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: It just kind of fell freaking game.
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: I don't see green Bay having that same kind of
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: falling apart in this game. Like it feels like green
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: Bay the way they've been playing, how they're playing down
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: the stretch here, they've just been getting better every week.
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: So yeah, it could. I apologize at a time people
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: if this doesn't hit for us just because we are
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: buying a little high on green Bay here, Like I'm
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: not gonna lie to you. It's we're back in a
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: team here that, like Chad just said, they're they're a
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: favorite of everyone like we got them plus seven Sunday night.
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: They've moved down to six now here on Thursday. So
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: clearly the pros have been hitting this one. But I
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: still think we're getting good value, and it's just if
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: we can get six and a half in the contest.
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: I just don't know how we don't play it. It's
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: just such a key number and a matchup where I
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: just see it being a close game.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: The I didn't see Evan stat because I was looking
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: for a different one.
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: Mahomes losses. Sorry, Ten of mahomes twelve losses as the
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: start of twenty twenty one are outside the division, so
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: not a shock.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Well, I wanted to make a point about what you
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: just said about sort of lack of big plays and
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: targets for Mahomes. Anthony Dubundo, one of our writers, does
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: a great column every week sort of and identifying pass
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: lean pick for every game on the NFL slate. He
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: had this stat. He's also betting the Packers and also
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: targeting the second half under for the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: dropped back thirty one times against the Raiders, only four
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: targets to non Rashi Rice wideouts. It's all about backs
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: and tight ends, and we lost that game because the
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: Raiders were passive, not because Kansas City had any great
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: sort of offensive breakthrough. I thought that was a really
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: good stat from from Anthony. So yeah, we'll be on
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: We'll be on Green Bay. So right now, right now,
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: there's two games that I think I still want to
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: talk about Jets Tennessee, Green Bay Washington. I want to
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: convince you of Arizona. I think it's the wise guy play.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: We got two games that are sort of blinking bright
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: red in the luck rankings, with both which you and
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: I both love. One of them is Arizona. And I
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: feel like the market is so overvaluing the Steelers because
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: they had one good offensive game against a team that
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: is in turmoil, and all of a sudden, this line
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: exploded by more than two points from the look ahead
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: from three to five and a half. It feels like
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: it's a bad spot for Tomlin as a favorite of
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: more than a field goals just thirty seven percent in
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: his career. It's the luck rankings dogs off the loss
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: of twenty or more sixty percent covered the next week.
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: It just feels like we're missing an opportunity here.
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I told you. My pushback in my fear is
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: just they can't stop the run, the Cardinals and Pittsburgh.
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: The only thing they can do well is run the
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: ball like they have a two really dominant, two headed back.
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: So the bros are with you, I tell you that much.
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: Like I talked to a couple of guys. They liked
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: the Cardinals too, but it's just not one of their
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: bigger bets. It's like they're kind of playing the spot
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: like you just talked about, but they're betting with zero
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: confidence or like the argument again is you're taking a
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: little Kyler Murray out on the outside in the cold.
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: Probably not the best spot to take this kid who's
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: just not played well in these kind of positions. So
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I view it as you're right, this
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: number fields inflated. It's the same reason I took Arizona
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: a couple of weeks ago against Houston. It was like the
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: number felt too big. Probably one of my luckiest bets
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: of the year. I think it literally landed on five.
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: So it did. Can we hit? Should we? I mean
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: play the odds chat and do it again? Where this
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: game is going to land on five? Because that's what
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: the book's telling you right now, like the money was
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: pouring in on Pittsburgh at six, moved down to five
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: and a half and the first line move yes, So
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: pretty telling the books here. They're not scared of Pittsburgh money.
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: They're happy to take it right now. They are with
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: you in alignment. They like the Cardinals here too. So
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: you can't get me there right now, Chad, but maybe
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: three days from now I could be talked into it.
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: I just I want the six and a half on
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: the Cardinals. That's my biggest thing. It's like if it's
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: six and a half in contest, I like it a
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: five and a half. It just makes me a little
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: uneasy just because I just don't really trust this team
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: here outdoors, and as the weeks have gone on, I've
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: had less and less confidence in their coaching staff as well,
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: Like they just I don't think they've made great adjustments. Defensively,
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: they have not made good adjustments, and then you just
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: go through it. It's like maybe they just don't have
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: the dogs, Like maybe they don't have the talent that
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: team to really stay in these games. So this is
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: definitely a spot where you're just playing the numbers and
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: fading Tomlin as a big favorite. So I totally ge
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: where you're coming from these kind of spots.
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: Well, look Sunday afternoon, Sunday, Sunday midday, after the show,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: when we finalize our picks, we'll be together. Maybe we
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: can go get an espresso over at Italy next to
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: the office and you know, fire up the laptop and
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: we'll put on our picks together. All right, last game
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: to talk about if we need a favorite, We're going
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: to get the forty nine ers at minus two and
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: a half in this contest. This is the biggest luck
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: rankings game on the board, biggest discrepancy between luck and unly.
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: So here's a couple other things. I was listening to
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: Chris Long's green Light podcast right. He made a really
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: good point. He was talking about the Eagles and they
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: were on the plate on the field for ninety five
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: plays the other day in the rain. It was a
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: war of a game. Fletcher Cox banged up, Jordan Davis
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: banged up. We think Alane Johnson is going to play.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: Even if he does, he'll be banged up. You need
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: every hour you can get, this was interesting to me.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: Every hour you can get to recover. Meanwhile, everything the
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: forty nineers like to attack is where the Eagles are
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: weakest defensively, meaning in the middle of the field. Right
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: the one place they haven't overinvested is linebacker. That's what
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: the forty nine ers like to do. We just did
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: the film room breakdown of Deebo Samuel and what he
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: can do and how Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel together.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: This team is eight and zero when they play together,
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: winning by twenty one points. And while the Eagles just
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: came off the battlefield against the Bills in a physical
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: game in the rain, the Niners are as healthy as
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: they've ever been and haven't played in ten days.
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: I think that's the biggest thing right there is what
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: you just said. It's the like they gave extended rest
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: plaint against a team that you just said. They played
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: an incredible amount of snaps on defense against a very
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: physical team in the Bills, Like that was a really
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: tough game. And yeah, this is a blind spot for me.
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: If if I didn't have so many pros calling me
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: up and telling me I have to take the two
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: and a half, I easily would have taken the Eagles
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: in our contest. But yeah, it seems like this is
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: the pro spot take the forty nine ers. They're gonna
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: win this game. I gotta get over it.
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: I never see you as a biased better when it
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: comes to the Eagles. You're a professional. You don't let
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: your emotion out.
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: I honestly prefer to fade the Eagles because then I
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: can't lose where it's like like that the dream scenario,
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: the Eagles win and I win my bet, Like that's
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: what I live for. You will that never catch me
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: being biased. I'm all about the money, not about the Eagles.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: We need we owe a foxhole. Is it green Bay?
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: Is it Tennessee?
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's do Green Bay because we've talked so much
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: about that, Like I probably should have made my assignment, says, well,
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: let's make our foxhold at six foxhoil Greenen Bay. You
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy.
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: I'm a foxhole guy.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: We're in the fox Bay Packers at plus six.
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: You have no interest in Houston at minus three and
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: a half.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: I think it's the right side stuck you all over Houston.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: He just thinks like you're getting peak Denver because Denver's
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: been winning so much because of turnover luck. Yeah at
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: three and a half, I don't love the number, all.
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: Right, that makes sense you have. I have no real
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: feeling either, Like I wanted to take Denver, got talked
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: out of it. No real feel on it. So yeah,
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: I'm cool with thats on that one.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: And then the other one we were skipping over is Cleveland,
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: which as soon as I made it my executive decision,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: I wanted to walk it back. I'm sticking with it
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: because it's too great. Yeah, but like it made me
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: nervous from the second I said it, even though the
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: number has moved in the direction of Cleveland.
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: The line opened two and a half minus two and
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: a half Rams, and it's only moved a point after
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: that incredible win they had against Arizona, and now we
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: know for fact it's Joe Flacco and Miles Garrett as
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: a bumped shoulder. So I have no idea what this
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: line is. People like to me, it's all screaming rams,
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: But the books they think they know something. They think
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: this is going to land on three. That is one
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: of the more bizarre lines of the week. That that number.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: There, Noman is show. That's what they say.
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: It's true.
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: Milman is sharp. By the way, I didn't mention because
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: we have a live event on Sunday night and we
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: will be watching at least some of the Packers Chiefs
• 42:13
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• 42:16
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• 42:26
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• 42:31
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• 42:43
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• 42:51
  Speaker 1: us Simon. This holiday season is about more than just
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• 44:09
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• 44:11
  Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love Game
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  Speaker 1: track our official content picks in the Action Contest picks
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: in the Action app under the Phase five account. Again,
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: if you want to see the unofficial picks we enter
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: on Thursday, go to the contest website Favorites dot Action
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: Network dot com and search the faves five that's us.
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: Before we get to our money line Underdog round Robin,
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: reminder that the Week thirteen contest tiebreaker is total passing
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: yards on Monday Night Football are predictive analyst Billy Ward
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: writes a weekly article about tiebreaker strategy, and a link
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: to that article can be found in the episode's description.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: If you want a leg up in the contest, good
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: luck everybody, Money Line, Underdog Round Robin Simon.
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: My dog likes your dog.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: Your dog likes mot Dog.
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: Jets Yeah, Titans, Yep, Eagles Nah, Saints Nah, Washington.
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we got, we got. I do the dead cat
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: bounce the cat.
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: Bounce Carolina Yeah, Denver.
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's pretty good too.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, New Jet, New York Jets, Tennessee, Titans, Washington, Carolina, Denver. Simon,
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: I want you to make Little Caesars, which is the
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: official pizza sponsor of the NFL, part of your game day.
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: The holiday season has finally arrived. Simon. If I wrapped
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: up a Little Caesars pizza, could I put it under
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: your tree?
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: That would mean so much to me.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: Chad order online during our Pizza Pizza pregame one hour
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: before NFL games and get ready for some football and fun.
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: Choose your favorite Little Caesars pizza or pick the toppings
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: you crave. Simon, I just invented this motto. Tell me
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: what you think if pizza gives you the Kringle Tingles
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: give Little Caesars a jingle jingle. However you order your pizza,
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: you win. And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenience
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: delivery or our in store pizzaa porter will pickup. So
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: grab some friends and friends and enjoy a few slices
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: during the game. When you say it means so much
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: to me, I bet just that just kills me. Do
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: you have that.
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: Planned p You're off the top of the head.
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: It just came you. That's so funny. Who's going to be.
• 47:20
  Speaker 5: I'm a survivor the Survivor pool pick of the week, So.
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: I'm down to two contests and one of them is
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: one of the biggest in the nation. There's only eighty
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: people left. I will not say the name was said contest,
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: but most people know. And we are fighting because it's
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: not just me, and it's me and like three other guys,
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: and we are fighting over who we're going to pick
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: this week because it's a week of you've got to
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: use these ugly teams and it's a good week to
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: do it. So Pittsburgh's got candidate. No one's used Pittsburgh.
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: They have a good spot. We just talked about Tampa
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: technically have a good spot. They're playing against Carolina here.
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: I've been fading Carolina. It's been really good to me
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: and Sir Roverpool. And then the last one is the
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: Rams because you don't know what else you're gonna use
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: the Rams if you look at their upcoming schedule. Really
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: tough week, Chad, So I'm probably gonna have splitting like
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: I did last week, just to try to play it
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: safe and maximize my chances of winning at this point.
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: So I'll do the Rams for one and then I'll
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: do Pittsburgh for the other one. So Tomlin's not great
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: at covering in this spots, but I do feel like
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: he usually wins in these kind of spots. Win this game, bro,
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: Win this game straight up, totally get if you're scared
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: off of it. I feel so bad for you because
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: it's so tough to make that decision. But if I
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: had to pick the one I feel the best about
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: and value wise, I'll do the Rams.
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: Remind me at this point your biggest bets of the week.
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: Well, I'm about to spend about one hundred K buying
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: out my Eagles position, which is gonna be a fucking
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: fun day. So I'll be doing a lot of that today,
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: which is gonna suck. Tennessee. Washington was Denver by again
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: buying out of my Denver position, which is fucking sucks.
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: The Ram Green Bay buy kickoff. It's probably gonna be
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: the Jets. Like Chad's right on it with the three.
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: You got to make these bets here on the Jets.
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: So yeah, right now, I don't have a lot on
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: the Jets, but I can tell you by Sunday this
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: is gonna be one of my five bigger bets.
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: Chad's on it. You know why, Sharp Chad Sharp, foxhol
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: Green Bay plus six big balls, Jets plus two and
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: a half exec Decision, Cleveland plus three and a half,
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: Simon says Washington plus nine and a half. As a reminder,
• 49:29
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  Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off in iowhare terms, conditioners restrictions
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  Speaker 1: apply all right, before we get out of here, Action
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams, who gives us all
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: the great stats, he is going to tell us why
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: all the bets we've made are such a good idea.
• 50:18
  Speaker 5: Evan the last word with Evan Abrams.
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: We're finished talking.
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: Well, what's going on?
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: Fellas?
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: So Joe Flacco is one and no, I'm kidding Weather
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: and Wind. I feel like we start there right December.
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: We're here, We're going to get it. So Indie Tennessee
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: and Cincinnati Jacksonville look like they're the closest win games
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: right now. Actually, Indie Tennessee up to ten mile an
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: hour wins, which seventeen and five and one to the
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: under seventeen to five and one this year and one
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: oh nine fifty five and one last three years, so
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: crazy wind usually goes under. In terms of cold games,
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: ca c Green Bay about thirty degrees, so is Pittsburgh,
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: New England, and then rain. You guys talked about it.
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: Philly and Washington actually looked like they both could get
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: some showers, So watch out there now. Unders feel like
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: every show I do, I have to talk about this
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: because it's literally got to the point where it's insane.
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: Standalone games thirty four and thirteen to the under, night
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: games twenty nine and nine now Sunday Night Football and
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: Monday Night Football just feels made up at this point.
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: Twenty three and three to the under this year, forty
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: nine to seventeen last two years, but listen, cash in
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: fifteen straight and thirty two and three to the under
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: last thirty five games just stupid. At this point, you're
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: gonna like this one, guys. Word of caution for Philly,
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: So Eagles and Bills went to overtime last week. Teams
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: coming off OT one twenty five one fifty seven straight
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: up one thirty one fifty and two against the spread
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: last decade under also good in those games. But here's
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: a great one. You actually talked about it a few
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: minutes ago when you talked about plays off of overtime games, well,
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: teams coming off ot where opponent ran ninety plus plays
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: six and twelve straight up since two thousand small sample size,
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: but doesn't happen often. Last one dead cat bounce. We
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: love it on the show. Let's do it one more time.
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: Thirty six teams have fired their coach in the regular
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: season since two thousand and three, seventeen and nineteen straight
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: up in their next game. But twenty and sixteen against
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: the spread, and you're gonna say to yourself, kind of
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: a small margin, right, fifty five point six percent, But
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: if you look at it those teams thirty seven percent,
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: ats margin prior to the coaching can change. So maybe
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: a little bit of Carolina this week we're going to see.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: By the way, that was amazing context because as soon
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: as you said twenty and sixteen, I'm thinking to myself,
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: I don't give a fuck about that. That means nothing.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: That was great. Evan, Here's the question for both of you,
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: because Evan is practically a professional vetter in his own right,
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: at what point do we feel like we start fading
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: that under trend, Because like part of me hasn't been
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: betting it because I'm like, well, this is the week
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: it's going to end.
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: I mean I got asked this on GDD Green Dyed
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: Daily of the show We Do Want every Day Listen.
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: I think the problem is this the total, the average
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: total in all these games. It's the lowest it's been
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: in like ten or fifteen years. So books actually know
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: this is happening. They're actually making these totals lower and
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: it is still going under. Like that stat earlier on
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: the thirty seven and thirty eights being like twenty two
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: and four seen back to me is kind of the
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: answer for I just had to stay away from me,
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: like I'm not even touching this anymore because I feel
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: like I have to see like an uptick before I'm
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: willing to invest. Now, if you're gonna go get a
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: gate game to game and look at like you know
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: your projections and this and that, like I get it,
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: but just blindly doing it, I just can't.
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, make fuck it, Yeah they can make the adjustment,
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: doesn't matter. I've already bought the boat and I caught
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: a prime time under on the back of it, Like
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: they've already paid me out. So if you've rided this
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: bravery train since week one when Evan gave us had
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: an amazing stat and even last year we bet it
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: all last year. It's just every year people are like,
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: are they gonna catch up to it? And yeah, they
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: might catch up to it. Like Evan said, they've been
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: dropping the totals, but then we have a twelve ten
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: game on Monday Night against the Vikings and Bears. It's
• 54:08
  Speaker 3: like it doesn't matter. For some reason. These teams just
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: are getting tight in these primetime games and they're kicking
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: threes instead of getting sevens. And we've had the most
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: insane luck ever on these unders this season. So yes,
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: if you missed the party, don't start betting the unders
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: now you've missed it. Someone like me, I'm gonna keep
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: betting it. But yeah, like the last two weeks, I've
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: definitely lowered the amount of been put on these unders.
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: And of course I think it's what Evan. They've they've
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: had two overs the last two weeks. It's just been
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: four unders, so I keep thinking it's gonna catch up
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: and the books will catch up to it, but they
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: haven't yet. But totally agreement where it's like, next year,
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: don't miss the boat start week one with us bet
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: these prime time unders. It's a long term winner, Evan,
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: give us the stats. Long term it wins just because
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: the books will always inflate these prime time games. So
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: totally agreement with Evan. They've caught up to it. They
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: know what's happening, they know guys like me have been
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: taking advantage of it. They don't know what to do.
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: They can't make it. They can't keep making it so
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: low because eventually they will get caught by the professional.
• 55:10
  Speaker 3: So they're in a tough spot here. But lucky for them,
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: even this past week, the public was betting the overs.
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: Like the Vikings Bear game, most of the money was
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: on the over chad, so they don't really need to
• 55:23
  Speaker 3: do much. Luckily for them, the public just likes to
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: bet these overs. So historical year, crazy year, most properly
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: year of my life betting these unders. And I'm not
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: gonna stop. I'm gonna keep ryan at just I'm going
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: to lower my limit size on these games instead of
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: betting so big on it.
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: Well, look look at the Bengals Jaguars. That total was
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: it thirty eight and a half? Got that down to
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: thirty eight some places have it back at thirty eight
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: and a half and thirty nine now, right, so you
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: know it's getting bet up. I love that stat. Also
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: about the under thirty eight and under thirty seven. This week,
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: there are three games that are so far under thirty eight. Panthers, Bucks, Jags, Bengals,
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: and I think Falcons Jets are the three that are under.
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: So keep an eye out for that.
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: Patriots, like all these games, Patriots, Chargers games, all these games,
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: it's like, how do you not take the unders? I
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: know it's tough, but it's like I see these teams
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: settling for threes and not getting sevens like all those
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: games you just mentioned. So that's nkey.
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: Most field goals made per team and in NFL history
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: this year.
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: So wow, people just sell.
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: All right, here's a wrap up Foxhole, green Bay plus
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: six Big Balls, Jets plus two and a half exec Decision,
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: Cleveland plus three and a half, Simon says, Washington plus
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: nine and a half. Reminder of the round robin New
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: For now, if we had to put in the five
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: that we're going to do and Simon and I will
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: talk after this show. The faves five For now, I
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: think it's going to be Jets depending on the numbers
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: in the contest Jets Tennessee, Green Bay, Washington, Niners with
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: an outside shop for Arizona. If the number is six
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: and a half, sign up by right.
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: Simon sounds right, brother.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: Before we sign off, reminder, Simon and I will be
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: back with our Week thirteen recap episode live from New
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: Jersey on the Action Network YouTube page this Sunday, December third,
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: seven thirty pm. If you want to join us our
• 57:20
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• 57:39
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