Latest / Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast / Inside The Data: What Do The Metrics Say About Eagles A.J. Brown's Separation Yards?
Transcript
- 0:09Speaker 1: Hello, welcome to another Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
- 0:13Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher. That is Sam Finkel, and he, as
- 0:17Speaker 1: always has the great analytics and data. He is our expert,
- 0:20Speaker 1: and as we do every week, we're gonna break down
- 0:23Speaker 1: the last Eagles game. It's a win, a thirty one
- 0:25Speaker 1: to twenty five win over the Tampa Bay Bucks. Eagles
- 0:28Speaker 1: are four and oh but that was about as polarizing,
- 0:31Speaker 1: not only of a game but as a win from
- 0:34Speaker 1: I guess the outside perspective, but even within the game, Sam,
- 0:37Speaker 1: I mean, you just look at how they threw the
- 0:39Speaker 1: ball in the first half, fifteen to sixteen and then
- 0:42Speaker 1: oh of eight. You don't see that kind of variance
- 0:44Speaker 1: from half to half very often.
- 0:46Speaker 2: No, you really don't. And you're absolutely right and very
- 0:50Speaker 2: excited to break this down.
- 0:52Speaker 1: Awesome, that's great. So Sam, in this episode, you know,
- 0:56Speaker 1: we've been following a sort of a formula of going
- 0:59Speaker 1: through some data. But Sam has some really excellent statistics
- 1:02Speaker 1: on AJ Brown. Analytical ones, really advanced data on AJ
- 1:06Speaker 1: Brown and his separation that we're going to get into.
- 1:10Speaker 1: And you know, it's obviously a big topic right now.
- 1:13Speaker 1: AJ Brown has made himself a big topic some of
- 1:16Speaker 1: the Eagles by not being able to get him the ball.
- 1:18Speaker 1: It's a guy who's had fourteen hundred yards three years
- 1:20Speaker 1: in a row and then last year was up over
- 1:23Speaker 1: I believe eleven hundred yards and missed some games and
- 1:25Speaker 1: probably would have been there. And right now he's like
- 1:30Speaker 1: a guy in the offense. Sam. It's kind of weird
- 1:32Speaker 1: to see aj Brown just not getting the ball.
- 1:36Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's not for lack of trying, as you'll see.
- 1:40Speaker 2: But we'll talk about it soon. I'm excited for that one.
- 1:43Speaker 1: All right, awesome, So we will start off and we'll
- 1:46Speaker 1: get to the charts in a second, but just in general,
- 1:49Speaker 1: before we do anything, as you were putting this together,
- 1:52Speaker 1: that jump out at you from an analytics or a
- 1:55Speaker 1: data standpoint that made you go, wow.
- 1:58Speaker 2: You know something that I said last week really inspired
- 2:01Speaker 2: me to add something new to the basic chart, and
- 2:05Speaker 2: that was the average starting field position. Right. I feel like,
- 2:09Speaker 2: particularly against the Rams, the Eagles did not win the
- 2:13Speaker 2: starting field position battle. I was a little bit surprised
- 2:15Speaker 2: to see that they won against the Buccaneers. I guess
- 2:18Speaker 2: not crazy surprise, but they did win the average starting
- 2:21Speaker 2: field position battle.
- 2:22Speaker 1: It sure helped that they didn't muff five kickoffs, Sam,
- 2:25Speaker 1: I mean there's.
- 2:26Speaker 2: No doubt about that.
- 2:28Speaker 1: I can really help you in the category for field position, Yeah,
- 2:31Speaker 1: something we also talked about last week jumped out at
- 2:33Speaker 1: me in the basic stats, and I'll pull that up
- 2:36Speaker 1: in a second, because in a lot of the basic
- 2:39Speaker 1: stats the Eagles did not win, but in one key
- 2:42Speaker 1: one that we talked about last week, they continue to
- 2:45Speaker 1: win and that makes a big difference. So I will
- 2:47Speaker 1: pull up the chart now and we will get right
- 2:50Speaker 1: to it. And as you can point out there, Sam,
- 2:52Speaker 1: the Bucks pretty much owned from a basic stamp. They
- 2:56Speaker 1: won the stat sheet there except for one critical critical
- 3:01Speaker 1: category that's been key for the Eagles, and that's the turnovers.
- 3:04Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think this is the first week the
- 3:06Speaker 2: Eagles lost time of possession two, right, So that's I
- 3:10Speaker 2: should have mentioned that as well as a key part
- 3:12Speaker 2: of this, Like we said, the way the Eagles want
- 3:16Speaker 2: to play football, the way they have been playing football.
- 3:20Speaker 2: Love that the way they've been playing football has been
- 3:26Speaker 2: winning the turnover battle and by holding the ball and
- 3:31Speaker 2: having the maximum amount of time of possession.
- 3:34Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, they have And when you get to so
- 3:38Speaker 1: I think that's why turnovers has become for them this
- 3:43Speaker 1: year so far through four games, their biggest or most
- 3:48Speaker 1: glaring stat for why they're four to zero and not
- 3:50Speaker 1: maybe three and one or two and two or even
- 3:52Speaker 1: worse having a losing record, because if you go and
- 3:54Speaker 1: look at when and where those turnovers ever happened, they've been.
- 3:59Speaker 1: So you go back to Week one where Dallas was driving,
- 4:03Speaker 1: they had the huge Miles Sanders run into the Eagles
- 4:05Speaker 1: territory and then Miles fumbles the ball. Week two, Travis
- 4:10Speaker 1: kelcey is literally about to catch a pass and go
- 4:12Speaker 1: into the end zone, except it bounces off his hands
- 4:15Speaker 1: and goes right into Andrew mccouba. I mean, that was
- 4:17Speaker 1: That's like a fourteen point swing right there. I believe
- 4:19Speaker 1: the Eagles converted that into at least a field goal,
- 4:22Speaker 1: so it was a it was a big swing. And
- 4:25Speaker 1: then of course to get the opening possession interception against
- 4:28Speaker 1: the Rams was huge because they were they would have
- 4:31Speaker 1: been down even more than the nineteen points that they were,
- 4:34Speaker 1: So each turnover that they're getting and again against the Bucks,
- 4:39Speaker 1: really critical one by Jahad Campbell there in the end zone.
- 4:43Speaker 1: In these one possession games are so critical. The Eagles
- 4:46Speaker 1: have won four games by a total of twenty points.
- 4:48Speaker 2: Yeah. And but what we've talked about before, and I'm
- 4:51Speaker 2: going to keep hammering at home, even though here's the
- 4:54Speaker 2: thing it has been replicable is you can't really rely
- 4:57Speaker 2: on these right that they're not going to consistently happ
- 5:00Speaker 2: throughout the course of a season. Right, They're gonna need
- 5:03Speaker 2: to make plays in other ways. But by not turning
- 5:05Speaker 2: the ball over, you put yourself in the best position
- 5:08Speaker 2: to win games. But you can't rely on other teams
- 5:10Speaker 2: to keep making these mistakes.
- 5:12Speaker 1: Fair enough, the one thing about the basic data that
- 5:15Speaker 1: we'll just take a quick look at that I think
- 5:17Speaker 1: is a little bit skewed or misleading. I would be
- 5:20Speaker 1: more concerned by the eagles lack of production than what
- 5:26Speaker 1: you're seeing from Tampa Bay's productions. What I mean is
- 5:31Speaker 1: Tampa Bay had three hundred and seventy six yards, which
- 5:33Speaker 1: is a decent amount of yards in a game. But
- 5:35Speaker 1: I think one hundred and sixty something came on two plays, right,
- 5:40Speaker 1: two sort of shot plays. One that you just scramble drill,
- 5:44Speaker 1: you know, John Campbell trying to cover Bucky Irving that
- 5:47Speaker 1: you know, that really speaks to the Eagles not getting
- 5:48Speaker 1: pressure enough on that play, and then Baker also doing
- 5:51Speaker 1: a good job of getting out and then obviously the
- 5:53Speaker 1: coverage breakdown on the Ekbuka touchdown.
- 5:57Speaker 2: If you tell us such a tight window throw too.
- 6:00Speaker 1: And it was yeah, yeah, And I know you can
- 6:03Speaker 1: those counts, so you don't take them away, but I
- 6:05Speaker 1: think that they skew the total yards, the yards per play,
- 6:08Speaker 1: and the yards per pass average. So yeah, I look
- 6:11Speaker 1: at that and I don't say this was a bad
- 6:13Speaker 1: defensive effort by the Eagles, but I look at the
- 6:15Speaker 1: offensive stats there and I say, man, that's concerning, especially
- 6:18Speaker 1: after that first half.
- 6:19Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's the right takeaway from the basic stats.
- 6:21Speaker 2: I think you hit the nail right on the head there.
- 6:24Speaker 1: All right, let us go to the real juicy stuff,
- 6:28Speaker 1: the advanced stats, what jumps out to you.
- 6:32Speaker 2: Yeah, So first off, let me just say that I
- 6:34Speaker 2: built this table a little bit differently, so those who
- 6:37Speaker 2: have watched and followed the show. We compared the Eagles
- 6:41Speaker 2: season to you know, the Eagles and their opponent. Instead,
- 6:45Speaker 2: now offense and defense are going to be separated. So
- 6:49Speaker 2: the column on the middle, the middle column is the
- 6:52Speaker 2: Eagles on the season, and the one to the right
- 6:54Speaker 2: is how they did, how the offense did against Tampa Bay.
- 6:58Speaker 1: Right, Okay, so the right column is Tampa Bay's, it's
- 7:01Speaker 1: it's the Eagles. And now you're comparing it through the
- 7:03Speaker 1: first four games. So h it looks like the Eagles
- 7:07Speaker 1: were obviously worse in many categories against Tampa Bay than
- 7:12Speaker 1: they've been for the season.
- 7:13Speaker 2: Yes, get from an EPA standpoint, so much so that
- 7:16Speaker 2: their EPA per play is now negative from this.
- 7:20Speaker 1: So it was positive last week for the three games
- 7:22Speaker 1: it was Yeah, Wow, that's what a minus point seventeen
- 7:25Speaker 1: will do for you.
- 7:26Speaker 2: Yeah. So what that means is that they're actively hurting
- 7:30Speaker 2: themselves on scoring drives on average. Wow, very minuscule, it's
- 7:34Speaker 2: it's very minor. In fact, it's almost like zero, which
- 7:38Speaker 2: means that they're really just not helping themselves get into
- 7:41Speaker 2: scoring positions, which I think is what we see right
- 7:44Speaker 2: at what we have seen and saying that, I think
- 7:48Speaker 2: it it shows that these advanced stats do a pretty
- 7:50Speaker 2: good job of capturing that. Yeah, because it factors in,
- 7:53Speaker 2: you know, all all the football that the Eagles have
- 7:56Speaker 2: played this year, and I think on average they have
- 7:59Speaker 2: not helped them so into scoring positions.
- 8:02Speaker 1: Is there something interesting. Is this just coincidence or is
- 8:05Speaker 1: there something to be made that every each EPA for pass,
- 8:09Speaker 1: play and rush are all the exact same.
- 8:13Speaker 2: Yeah. I just think that was quirk Okay, I don't
- 8:16Speaker 2: think there's anything more than that. It was just a
- 8:18Speaker 2: quirky thing that happened. But I do think it's indicative
- 8:21Speaker 2: that regardless of how they were attacking the Bucks, it
- 8:25Speaker 2: was not really on average helping them. Now, these numbers
- 8:28Speaker 2: certainly would skew from the first in the second half,
- 8:31Speaker 2: but as you can see, it's more negative than positive.
- 8:34Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely. Would you have been able to get the
- 8:37Speaker 1: EPA per half for is that even available?
- 8:41Speaker 2: I don't think so. Okay, it would be very interesting
- 8:44Speaker 2: to see. I don't think so. It's possible. I could
- 8:46Speaker 2: look into it, but.
- 8:47Speaker 1: I was just I'm just thinking that it seems like
- 8:50Speaker 1: the the negativity of the second half was more negative
- 8:57Speaker 1: than the positivity of the positives in the first half.
- 9:00Speaker 2: If that makes sense, I would agree, But that's also
- 9:03Speaker 2: assuming that the first half was completely efficient. And I
- 9:06Speaker 2: know that fifteen for sixteen passing is but doesn't mean
- 9:09Speaker 2: that their rushing necessarily was either.
- 9:11Speaker 1: A great point. Yeah, they did struggle to run even
- 9:14Speaker 1: when they were moving the ball. Yeah, good point.
- 9:16Speaker 2: So that's the only thing I'd add on that, yep.
- 9:19Speaker 2: And then the Eagles only did two things in the
- 9:22Speaker 2: advanced stats better, and that was they got the ball
- 9:25Speaker 2: out much Hurts got the ball out much quicker, but
- 9:29Speaker 2: out of necessity, right, I mean by design, right, it
- 9:32Speaker 2: was out of necessity out and by design. And then
- 9:34Speaker 2: also the sack percentage was lower than on the season.
- 9:37Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, because well, and again that would be another
- 9:41Speaker 1: one to measure by the half, because Hurts had far
- 9:45Speaker 1: fewer dropbacks in the second half, but I think he
- 9:49Speaker 1: took three sacks on far fewer dropbacks, So I would
- 9:52Speaker 1: imagine his second half sack percentage is way is in
- 9:57Speaker 1: the red as opposed to being for the game in
- 9:59Speaker 1: the green at seven point seven.
- 10:01Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're absolutely right. And I think like
- 10:04Speaker 2: when we did the Rams episode last week, we talked
- 10:07Speaker 2: about how it was a game of two halves. I
- 10:09Speaker 2: didn't think we'd be saying that again, and it really was.
- 10:12Speaker 2: I mean, the Eagles have not been consistent in half
- 10:15Speaker 2: and I think that's going to catch up with them eventually.
- 10:18Speaker 2: But I think that that narrative I didn't want to
- 10:21Speaker 2: say that narrative again, but really you can't say anything else, right.
- 10:25Speaker 1: So, the time to pressure against the Bucks at two
- 10:28Speaker 1: three five compared to the time to throw two two
- 10:30Speaker 1: three or waited by the fact that the Bucks pressured
- 10:33Speaker 1: very quickly because they threw a ton of six and
- 10:35Speaker 1: seven man cover zeros at the Eagles in the first
- 10:38Speaker 1: half especially, they stopped that in the second half. It did,
- 10:41Speaker 1: and then the Eagles came out clearly understanding this, and uh,
- 10:45Speaker 1: fifteen of sixteen was largely on three step drops and
- 10:47Speaker 1: really getting the ball out quickly.
- 10:49Speaker 2: Yeah. And the thing is to Todd Bowles's credit, I mean,
- 10:54Speaker 2: the blitz had worked historically against Hertz, but honestly that
- 10:58Speaker 2: their halftime adjustment it's really worked as well. Yeah, So
- 11:02Speaker 2: big credit to Bulls in the defense there.
- 11:05Speaker 1: For sure. I made the point on the postgame show
- 11:08Speaker 1: that I felt like Todd Bowles sort of walked into
- 11:10Speaker 1: a blitz buzzsaw only because it's worked so well from
- 11:13Speaker 1: the past. But the Eagles have been getting blitz so much,
- 11:16Speaker 1: from the Kansas City Chiefs who did it at like
- 11:18Speaker 1: sixty percent, to even the Rams who went up from
- 11:21Speaker 1: their normal twelve percent to forty five percent, and then
- 11:25Speaker 1: even who is the Rams achieved the Cowboys in the
- 11:29Speaker 1: second half dialed up the pressure on them after not
- 11:32Speaker 1: so I feel like the Eagles just knew what was
- 11:34Speaker 1: coming and they've been prepared for it. And ironically, it
- 11:37Speaker 1: was when Todd stopped, when he started dropping, is when
- 11:40Speaker 1: the Eagles started to have you know, less success.
- 11:43Speaker 2: Kind of interesting that and honestly that worries me a
- 11:45Speaker 2: little bit, right, I mean, it shows that they had
- 11:48Speaker 2: a game plan that worked really well. But your game
- 11:51Speaker 2: plan only works so well as if the other team
- 11:54Speaker 2: follows what you expect them to do. You need to
- 11:56Speaker 2: be able to turn on a dime and change and
- 11:59Speaker 2: adjust to their And honestly, the fact that we didn't
- 12:02Speaker 2: see that is super concerning, and honestly it's not It's
- 12:05Speaker 2: not to be unexpected from a first year coordinator.
- 12:07Speaker 1: So agreed. So the Eagles for the season. I know
- 12:13Speaker 1: this is weird for people, but as you have it here,
- 12:16Speaker 1: they have a forty four point three percent rush success.
- 12:19Speaker 1: Now again, I think you should repeat what rush success
- 12:22Speaker 1: means so that people because people are gonna say, how
- 12:24Speaker 1: is that possible with Barkley not really having a great year.
- 12:27Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's just basically any time you run the
- 12:31Speaker 2: ball with a successful EPA right for play, Like basically,
- 12:35Speaker 2: anytime you have a run that puts you in a
- 12:37Speaker 2: position to score on the drive or keeps you ahead
- 12:40Speaker 2: of the schedule, that is a successful run. So it
- 12:44Speaker 2: doesn't necessarily have to be an explosive run, it doesn't
- 12:46Speaker 2: necessarily have to be a first down, but it's just
- 12:48Speaker 2: a run that keeps your drive going right.
- 12:51Speaker 1: So, for example, if you get a Saquon Barkley three
- 12:54Speaker 1: yard run on you know, second and four and that
- 12:57Speaker 1: sets up a third and one, that's probably gonna have
- 12:59Speaker 1: a high A plus percentage in your EPA, especially as
- 13:03Speaker 1: with as good as the Eagles are converting third and
- 13:05Speaker 1: fourth down right. So it may not be anything that's
- 13:08Speaker 1: really attractive to the eye watching, but for an analytics standpoint,
- 13:13Speaker 1: that's good. But nonetheless, the Eagles were way lower on
- 13:17Speaker 1: their run success success according to your chart here, and
- 13:21Speaker 1: way higher on their run stuff for eight. Yeah to me,
- 13:25Speaker 1: this to me, sam is was very We went through
- 13:28Speaker 1: this on inside the tape with Greg Cosel. I picked
- 13:30Speaker 1: out six or seven my daughter will go six seven
- 13:37Speaker 1: Barkley runs that were blown up because of either a
- 13:42Speaker 1: missed block and it was like four different guys on
- 13:46Speaker 1: the line, it wasn't one guy all the time. Or
- 13:49Speaker 1: there were a couple of times where and this is
- 13:50Speaker 1: where I was a little confused, where they would have
- 13:53Speaker 1: a blocking scheme that didn't give them a mathematical advantage,
- 13:56Speaker 1: which is sort of what you're trying to do. Sure,
- 13:58Speaker 1: and a surprise that the play wasn't change so you
- 14:01Speaker 1: credit the bucks. But yeah, there were there are a
- 14:04Speaker 1: lot of issues right now at this running game, and
- 14:05Speaker 1: they're not all Saquon. They may not be any bit
- 14:08Speaker 1: to do with Saquon Barkley.
- 14:09Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's what I was gonna say. I
- 14:11Speaker 2: don't think it's Saquon. Yeah, really, I really don't think
- 14:15Speaker 2: it is.
- 14:16Speaker 1: But I do agree with this assessment. They're probably one
- 14:19Speaker 1: block or like a little bit away. I think the
- 14:21Speaker 1: breakout is gonna come.
- 14:22Speaker 2: Oh, it certainly is. Uh, there's a lot of minor
- 14:26Speaker 2: things that the Eagles need to fix, and I think
- 14:29Speaker 2: they are probably trying to and they're they're doing you know,
- 14:32Speaker 2: when they're breaking down film, you know, they see what
- 14:35Speaker 2: we're seeing. They also have a lot of experience in
- 14:39Speaker 2: fixing those things, so you gotta stay a little bit optimistic,
- 14:42Speaker 2: maybe cautiously optimistic, but I think it's coming. I think
- 14:45Speaker 2: you're right.
- 14:47Speaker 1: H What was what jumped out of you about the
- 14:49Speaker 1: stacked box percentage? Stacked box percentage, because there's something that
- 14:52Speaker 1: jumped out to me.
- 14:53Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I would have guessed it would have
- 14:56Speaker 2: been higher than a third of their plays, but who
- 15:01Speaker 2: knows where that came from the second half? Right? I mean,
- 15:04Speaker 2: I think if you look at them, if they did
- 15:06Speaker 2: have a split percentage based on the half, I think
- 15:10Speaker 2: it would be significantly higher in the first half. Right.
- 15:13Speaker 1: And by the way, this percentage is just of this
- 15:16Speaker 1: doesn't mess your success, just how often they saw one
- 15:19Speaker 1: or the other. Correct, right?
- 15:20Speaker 2: Correct?
- 15:20Speaker 1: So the Bucks basically said, we see that your run
- 15:24Speaker 1: game is struggling, and we're gonna give you a light
- 15:26Speaker 1: box on more than half of your alignments, which is
- 15:29Speaker 1: pretty interesting.
- 15:31Speaker 2: Yeah, And I do think that you have to eat
- 15:34Speaker 2: you almost have to view it in the two halves
- 15:36Speaker 2: because it was just two completely different games, for sure.
- 15:40Speaker 1: Gotcha? All right? Good stuff there on the offensive numbers
- 15:45Speaker 1: there for the Eagles, both on the season and how
- 15:47Speaker 1: they compared to against the Bucks. Let's get to the
- 15:50Speaker 1: star of the stat sheet. I like how you broke
- 15:52Speaker 1: it up first half. Jalen Hurts is definitely the star
- 15:55Speaker 1: of the stat sheet.
- 15:56Speaker 2: Yeah. I almost wanted to put like a first half
- 15:58Speaker 2: sticker on top of Hurts because I mean, that's really
- 16:03Speaker 2: where you're getting this start. I almost did two defensive
- 16:06Speaker 2: stars with the stat sheet, but I think based on
- 16:09Speaker 2: the format the way I've been doing it, it made
- 16:11Speaker 2: sense to still split it up offense defense. So let
- 16:14Speaker 2: let's talk about Jalen Hurts in the first half. Okay,
- 16:18Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts in the first half fifteen to sixteen on
- 16:20Speaker 2: passes for one hundred and thirty yards two touchdowns. He
- 16:24Speaker 2: recorded a seventy percent success rate in the first half,
- 16:27Speaker 2: which was the second highest start a game in his career,
- 16:30Speaker 2: and Hurtz had zero tight window throws in the first half.
- 16:34Speaker 1: Yeah, so I love that, Sam, that you put that.
- 16:38Speaker 1: So what this tells me, and I'm taking nothing away
- 16:40Speaker 1: from anybody, God it hurts, Patula, whatever, But what it
- 16:44Speaker 1: tells me is they came out with a plan that
- 16:48Speaker 1: was specific to what the Bucks do on defense, and
- 16:52Speaker 1: the plan worked. They got exactly what they wanted to
- 16:56Speaker 1: the point where they didn't even have to quote unquote
- 16:59Speaker 1: struggle as far as threading tight windows or making things
- 17:02Speaker 1: happen off script, except for the nice twenty eight yard
- 17:04Speaker 1: run that that Hurts had, but that was a big
- 17:07Speaker 1: part of it as well the efficiency. And then as
- 17:10Speaker 1: we get into the second half, you'll see when they
- 17:12Speaker 1: when the other team decided to change the plan, they
- 17:15Speaker 1: did not change with it as well.
- 17:17Speaker 2: Yeah, or whatever they tried to change just didn't work.
- 17:20Speaker 1: Well, that's yes, that's what I mean.
- 17:21Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know which was worse. I think that
- 17:23Speaker 2: distinction is important, right, because if they tried to change
- 17:27Speaker 2: and weren't successful, I think that's better than not changing
- 17:29Speaker 2: at all. Uh.
- 17:31Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree with you on that. And I listen,
- 17:35Speaker 1: these coaches been coaching for a while. I think they
- 17:37Speaker 1: can tell when a defense is going from six and
- 17:41Speaker 1: seven man rushers to three man rushers and a lot
- 17:44Speaker 1: of guys dropping. So I imagine that the play calling
- 17:47Speaker 1: was different to combat that it was. I think you
- 17:50Speaker 1: saw it. There was a variety of throws that were
- 17:53Speaker 1: either well defended or just not in the vicinity. But
- 17:56Speaker 1: if you want to tell me that you think from
- 17:58Speaker 1: a route concept, there was a poor adjustment to what
- 18:00Speaker 1: they're doing. I could believe that as well.
- 18:02Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred would want to talk about Hurts in
- 18:05Speaker 2: the second half, Yeah, let's go all right. Hurts only
- 18:09Speaker 2: had one successful drop back the rest of the game,
- 18:11Speaker 2: recording his second lowest success rate nine point one percent
- 18:15Speaker 2: in the second half of his career.
- 18:17Speaker 1: That's amazing in a.
- 18:19Speaker 2: Bad way, but certainly amazing.
- 18:21Speaker 1: Nonetheless, honestly, it was like watching two different games.
- 18:23Speaker 2: Yeah again, went oh for eight passing in the second half,
- 18:27Speaker 2: with five attempts into tight windows. So five of those
- 18:30Speaker 2: eight were into tight windows, and Hurts was only blitzed
- 18:33Speaker 2: one time.
- 18:34Speaker 1: Right, that's unbelievable. The five attempts into tight windows on
- 18:41Speaker 1: eight passes, I think has to make you wonder if
- 18:44Speaker 1: the change from heavy blitzing with occasional man although you
- 18:49Speaker 1: know there were a lot of zone behind those blitzes,
- 18:51Speaker 1: but into the second half of passing into coverage and
- 18:54Speaker 1: there was a lot of rotation, there was a lot
- 18:56Speaker 1: of uh, you know, Vic does this too, There was
- 18:59Speaker 1: a lot of it looks like one then it becomes
- 19:00Speaker 1: another thing. If that made those tight window throws for
- 19:04Speaker 1: Hurts because he thought he was getting an opening and
- 19:06Speaker 1: then he closed at the last second because of a
- 19:08Speaker 1: change in the defensive alignment.
- 19:10Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that's totally plausible and makes a lot
- 19:14Speaker 2: of sense. But either way, I mean, he didn't convert
- 19:18Speaker 2: any of the tight window throws, which is interesting because
- 19:21Speaker 2: Hurts generally succeeds at tight window throws sort of out
- 19:25Speaker 2: of necessity, but it's also just the style of the
- 19:27Speaker 2: receivers that he has and the offense, they tend to
- 19:30Speaker 2: thrive in tight windows. Yeah, and they just didn't in
- 19:33Speaker 2: the second half.
- 19:34Speaker 1: And that as we go to the spray chart, which
- 19:37Speaker 1: is this is kind of a typical Hurts spray chart,
- 19:39Speaker 1: right where mostly, if not all, of throws are outside
- 19:42Speaker 1: the numbers here.
- 19:44Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think it's interesting that, you know, they
- 19:49Speaker 2: were testing the left side of the field a little
- 19:50Speaker 2: bit more than the right. I don't know if that's
- 19:53Speaker 2: always necessarily a thing, but I do think it's clearingly
- 19:57Speaker 2: obvious when you look at the spray chart that you
- 19:59Speaker 2: know there was a reason they were going that way.
- 20:02Speaker 2: And I don't know, it's it's very different than the
- 20:06Speaker 2: spray chart we saw last week, but you know, it's
- 20:08Speaker 2: a win. He's still got a win out of it,
- 20:10Speaker 2: so yeah.
- 20:12Speaker 1: Yeah, there are a couple more deep ball you see,
- 20:14Speaker 1: they're all now they're incompletions. But I think this is
- 20:17Speaker 1: the most amount of passes we've seen this year. I
- 20:21Speaker 1: think where he's had at least one to three of
- 20:25Speaker 1: twenty five to forty or more. Yards.
- 20:28Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, if you would expect.
- 20:30Speaker 1: I mean, when the guy when the defense comes out
- 20:31Speaker 1: to you. Although I think a lot of these came
- 20:33Speaker 1: in the second half weirdly, but I just shows you
- 20:36Speaker 1: how off kilt they were.
- 20:38Speaker 2: I think so too. I mean there's one that's that's
- 20:40Speaker 2: hiding it by the thirty plus thirty yards on the
- 20:44Speaker 2: left side. I don't know if you saw that one too. Yeah,
- 20:46Speaker 2: but I mean there's a decent amount. I think there's
- 20:49Speaker 2: four over twenty yards and five over fifteen yards. So
- 20:54Speaker 2: I mean that they did try to move the ball
- 20:56Speaker 2: down the field, but it just didn't. I mean the
- 20:59Speaker 2: only complete did one out of the four over twenty
- 21:03Speaker 2: and two out of the five over fifteen right right.
- 21:07Speaker 1: It's so weird, Like the signature Jalen Hurts play is
- 21:10Speaker 1: the deep shot down the sideline, and yet here you
- 21:12Speaker 1: basically see over three on those attempts. So just a
- 21:15Speaker 1: weird game, man, very weird game. All right, What else
- 21:20Speaker 1: about the offense here?
- 21:21Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Hurts had his rushing success rate of
- 21:24Speaker 2: fifty five point six percent with a plus zero point
- 21:28Speaker 2: eight EPA per attempt. So again, Hurts contributing by running
- 21:32Speaker 2: the ball, whether it's a scramble or a design quarterback run,
- 21:35Speaker 2: he is still being effective and probably was one of
- 21:40Speaker 2: the most effective players on the field, which is another
- 21:44Speaker 2: reason why I think he is the star of the
- 21:45Speaker 2: stat sheet, because I mean, listen, he is still contributing
- 21:50Speaker 2: positively when he's moving the ball, whether it's passing or running.
- 21:55Speaker 2: Speaking of running, Barkley had a rushing success rate of
- 21:57Speaker 2: thirty one point six percent, which was the lowest on
- 22:00Speaker 2: the team. It's Braiden Man.
- 22:04Speaker 1: Braiden Man's scramble in the end zone taking a safety.
- 22:07Speaker 1: That's got to count. They all count.
- 22:10Speaker 2: Yeah, Saquon Barkley's EPA per attempt was minus zero point
- 22:14Speaker 2: zero eight, which basically averages don't work this way. But
- 22:19Speaker 2: for the sake of argument, let's just say he basically
- 22:23Speaker 2: took away everything that hurts it brought. Yeah, I mean
- 22:26Speaker 2: the numbers again, it's average, so it's not like total.
- 22:29Speaker 2: You'd have to look at the total numbers to say that,
- 22:31Speaker 2: but just for the sake of illustration, we're just going
- 22:34Speaker 2: to say that he was again not his fault, I
- 22:38Speaker 2: don't think I wouldn't say, but it took away essentially
- 22:42Speaker 2: what hurts provided.
- 22:44Speaker 1: So I would also think that the fifty fifth because
- 22:46Speaker 1: we always talk about EPA, it's it's heavily weighted by
- 22:48Speaker 1: plays they give you an opportunity to score, and he
- 22:52Speaker 1: had that twenty eight yard run on the front, which
- 22:55Speaker 1: I thought, I think is actually the most important play
- 22:57Speaker 1: of the first half despite all the great passing, because
- 23:00Speaker 1: that was a backbreaker that I believe. The very next
- 23:03Speaker 1: play was the touchdown shovel to Goddard out of the
- 23:07Speaker 1: diamond formation, and you know you had them. You set
- 23:11Speaker 1: that up with a huge run right into their lower
- 23:14Speaker 1: red zone.
- 23:15Speaker 2: Yeah. I think you're absolutely right, and I think that's
- 23:17Speaker 2: a really good point.
- 23:19Speaker 1: All right, So pass catchers what jumps out here?
- 23:23Speaker 2: Yeah? No, pass catches were over forty yards, with Goddard
- 23:27Speaker 2: having thirty seven and two touchdowns which were really you know,
- 23:32Speaker 2: designer touchdowns for both for Goddard. I'm sure no one's
- 23:36Speaker 2: complaining about that, but I do think it's worth saying
- 23:39Speaker 2: Barkley had thirty one yards and Smith twenty nine. Notable
- 23:44Speaker 2: receiving EPA. Smith led the team at plus four point six.
- 23:49Speaker 1: Sixteen yard catch by the way, on third down on
- 23:51Speaker 1: the opening drive. I think it was third down. Yeah, no,
- 23:54Speaker 1: that was the week before. But he had a even
- 23:55Speaker 1: big left side catch on in the.
- 23:58Speaker 2: First half, absolutely, which I'm sure it was a big
- 24:00Speaker 2: part of you know, the expected points added. Goddard plus
- 24:04Speaker 2: three point seven and then AJ Brown minus seven point one.
- 24:09Speaker 1: Wow. So even in the first half with all the
- 24:12Speaker 1: passing fifteen to sixteen, You're right, that was mostly to Goddard.
- 24:15Speaker 1: Some dump the Barkley Smith that was a third down
- 24:17Speaker 1: It was a third and eight to DeVante Smith that
- 24:19Speaker 1: I believe he hit him on the left side for
- 24:21Speaker 1: about fifteen sixteen yards. Yeah.
- 24:23Speaker 2: A J.
- 24:24Speaker 1: Brown, who has you know, articulated as frustration? I wonder
- 24:28Speaker 1: how into the analytics A J. Brown is.
- 24:33Speaker 2: That's a good question. May maybe you could ask him that.
- 24:36Speaker 1: Now, I love your next stat.
- 24:39Speaker 2: She sets us up for our next part of the conversation.
- 24:42Speaker 2: All right, but why why didn't you introduce it?
- 24:44Speaker 1: So you have average separation yards? And I like that,
- 24:47Speaker 1: Johnny MATCHI leads all, I don't know what this says.
- 24:51Speaker 1: It's weird. They line him up in the backfield a
- 24:52Speaker 1: couple of times, and I had him run routes outside
- 24:55Speaker 1: of that, So I don't know if that helps, like
- 24:57Speaker 1: skew the average, but.
- 24:58Speaker 2: Oh, it certainly does, because it's when you're targeted, right.
- 25:02Speaker 2: So a lot of what they did was they designed
- 25:04Speaker 2: touches for him, or at least designed him open and
- 25:07Speaker 2: warts hit him when there was no one around him.
- 25:10Speaker 2: So that's why that happened.
- 25:12Speaker 1: Yep. And I know that the Barkley catches came against
- 25:15Speaker 1: blitzes where you know, seven guys would rush and he
- 25:18Speaker 1: would just throw it into a flat and Barkley was
- 25:19Speaker 1: wide open be able to make some plays there.
- 25:22Speaker 2: Yep.
- 25:23Speaker 1: But the two wide receivers that really jumps out one
- 25:27Speaker 1: point six for a j. Brown at one point four
- 25:30Speaker 1: Devonte Smith. Hey, you know that one guy in the
- 25:32Speaker 1: group chat who hit a five leg parlay a week
- 25:35Speaker 1: one and he wouldn't shut up about it for the
- 25:37Speaker 1: rest of the season.
- 25:38Speaker 3: Sounds like kaplan, right, Yeah, yeah, it.
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- 27:36Speaker 1: Your first stake on the app is risk free. That's
- 27:39Speaker 1: code birds for a risk free first stake. Did you
- 27:43Speaker 1: feel like the Bucks in general covered well? I thought
- 27:45Speaker 1: that they did. They bet their hands on some balls.
- 27:48Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, they were very complimentary in their defense. Not
- 27:53Speaker 2: only were they pressuring pretty decently, but they were also
- 27:56Speaker 2: marring that with some decent coverage schemes.
- 27:59Speaker 1: Right. So I made an observation after the game. I
- 28:02Speaker 1: asked you to look into it because I felt like,
- 28:04Speaker 1: even though aj Brown himself is not getting targeted the
- 28:08Speaker 1: right way or as much, but even when he catches
- 28:11Speaker 1: the ball, I've said to you, it seems like, you know,
- 28:15Speaker 1: he's using his late hands, he's using his body. And
- 28:18Speaker 1: I said, I I haven't seen yet a play from
- 28:21Speaker 1: maybe a couple of years ago where he also toasts
- 28:23Speaker 1: a cornerback by five or ten yards down the side.
- 28:26Speaker 1: That's a little excessive, but you know, three to five
- 28:28Speaker 1: yards down the sideline to get separation. So you looked
- 28:31Speaker 1: into the separation analytics and what did you come up
- 28:35Speaker 1: with here?
- 28:35Speaker 2: Your inkling was absolutely correct. So I thought that the
- 28:40Speaker 2: best way to do this was to break it down
- 28:42Speaker 2: on a per game basis or an average basis, just
- 28:45Speaker 2: because we're only four games into this season and I
- 28:47Speaker 2: don't think it's fair to compare unless you're looking at rates.
- 28:51Speaker 2: So that being said, I think it's interesting looking at
- 28:54Speaker 2: his time with the Eagles that his targets per game,
- 28:58Speaker 2: you know, they have gone down, but it's not too
- 29:01Speaker 2: far from what it was last year, which again may
- 29:04Speaker 2: have not been the best year for him. But his
- 29:07Speaker 2: receptions per game has been was pretty consistent around you know,
- 29:10Speaker 2: five to six, and now it's at three point five,
- 29:12Speaker 2: so that that has dropped pretty significantly. Wow, the yards
- 29:16Speaker 2: per game has dropped significantly. He was consistently in the
- 29:19Speaker 2: eighties last three years and now thirty seven point eight,
- 29:23Speaker 2: and then you look at the yards per reception and
- 29:27Speaker 2: you know it kind of had a little bit of
- 29:29Speaker 2: variance through over the years, but it's low. I mean, look,
- 29:32Speaker 2: if you look at the bottom, this year is the
- 29:33Speaker 2: lowest in almost every category, including air yard per target,
- 29:37Speaker 2: but air yard per target's not that far off. But
- 29:40Speaker 2: what really stands out is the point that you wanted
- 29:43Speaker 2: me to look into, and the point of this chart
- 29:45Speaker 2: is his average separation.
- 29:47Speaker 1: You know, that's when targeted, right, correct, when targeted? Yeah, okay,
- 29:51Speaker 1: that is a that's a pretty big drop from two
- 29:53Speaker 1: point six and twenty twenty two to two point four
- 29:55Speaker 1: to two point one to one point seven. And then
- 30:00Speaker 1: and your next category is your average separation ranking. So
- 30:02Speaker 1: look where he ranks.
- 30:04Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's out of qualified receivers. And basically if
- 30:09Speaker 2: you look at twenty twenty two, I mean, he was
- 30:11Speaker 2: sixty eight out of eighty four, it's not that's not
- 30:13Speaker 2: his game, right, He's not. What he's a lead at
- 30:17Speaker 2: is because you can throw to him regardless of separation, right,
- 30:20Speaker 2: So it's not doesn't need to be a big part
- 30:21Speaker 2: of his game. But then it went from sixty nine
- 30:24Speaker 2: to eight out of eighty one. And last year was
- 30:27Speaker 2: the worst, it was eighty three out of eighty four.
- 30:29Speaker 2: This year not much better, seventy seven out of seventy nine.
- 30:33Speaker 1: Yeah, so the rankings to me are the average separation
- 30:36Speaker 1: number is a little more alarming than the rankings for
- 30:39Speaker 1: what you just said. Plus, he only went from two
- 30:42Speaker 1: point six to two point four, or he went from
- 30:45Speaker 1: two point six to two point four in twenty twenty
- 30:47Speaker 1: two and twenty twenty three, and his ranking kind of
- 30:49Speaker 1: stayed the same, and then it dropped a little to
- 30:51Speaker 1: two point one, and the rankings dropped a lot. So
- 30:55Speaker 1: that that all. That's when you're being compared against others, right,
- 30:58Speaker 1: But it's really you're just compared against yourself though, right,
- 31:01Speaker 1: your your average separation to go from two point six
- 31:04Speaker 1: and twenty twenty two to one point set, we're almost
- 31:06Speaker 1: talking about a full yard in the last four years,
- 31:10Speaker 1: is a little bit of a red flag for me,
- 31:12Speaker 1: just because that's an individual stat like, are you not
- 31:14Speaker 1: getting the separation you used to get? And why not?
- 31:18Speaker 2: Well? I think part of it is that, But I
- 31:20Speaker 2: do think another part of it is trust, right, I mean,
- 31:23Speaker 2: if you trust your guy, you're gonna throw him in
- 31:26Speaker 2: tighter windows. And I think that the chemistry between aj
- 31:29Speaker 2: Brown and Jalen hurts certainly contributed to some of this,
- 31:33Speaker 2: some of the reduction. I mean, Hurts is has and
- 31:36Speaker 2: will put the ball in tighter windows to aj Brown
- 31:38Speaker 2: because he knows he's gonna make it. I don't think
- 31:40Speaker 2: that explains all of it, but I do think it's
- 31:42Speaker 2: worth acknowledging the fact that that is part of this explanation.
- 31:45Speaker 1: Mm hmm. Definitely.
- 31:46Speaker 2: It's probably the more optimistic outlook, and it's probably not
- 31:50Speaker 2: the largest factor. I think the largest factor is the
- 31:53Speaker 2: fact that he's just not separating well.
- 31:55Speaker 1: Yeah, and then I throw in the fact that he
- 31:57Speaker 1: has constantly battled some knee issues and over the course
- 32:00Speaker 1: of four years, especially with the first two where he
- 32:03Speaker 1: was used a lot for like you have here, eight
- 32:06Speaker 1: point five targets, nine point three targets in twenty twenty three,
- 32:09Speaker 1: eighty eight yards per game eighty five. Then he had
- 32:11Speaker 1: a hamstring injury last year. He had a hamstring injury
- 32:15Speaker 1: all throughout camp this year, which may contribute to some
- 32:18Speaker 1: of this. But if you combine the hamstring and the
- 32:21Speaker 1: knees and the aging, now I mean, he's not twenty
- 32:23Speaker 1: three anymore. I just think this. I asked you to
- 32:26Speaker 1: do this because I wanted to see if there's a trend.
- 32:29Speaker 1: We know that there's a trend. It's a small sample size,
- 32:32Speaker 1: but I really do want to revisit this halfway through
- 32:35Speaker 1: the season and at the end of the season and say, hey,
- 32:38Speaker 1: is any of this a sign that aj Brown is
- 32:41Speaker 1: not the receiver he used to be physically and not
- 32:44Speaker 1: getting the separation over the long haul. If all these
- 32:47Speaker 1: numbers regress back to somewhere close by the end of
- 32:50Speaker 1: the year to the mean for him, then it's not
- 32:53Speaker 1: a red flag. And I'm not making a red flag now,
- 32:55Speaker 1: but it's just something I wanted to have you bring
- 32:57Speaker 1: to everybody's attention. Yeah.
- 32:59Speaker 2: Absolutely, And my guess is there will be a positive
- 33:02Speaker 2: regression to some extent. Whether it goes to his average
- 33:06Speaker 2: or whether it's resembling what we've seen in the past,
- 33:09Speaker 2: who knows, but I think there inevitably will be a
- 33:13Speaker 2: positive regression, right.
- 33:14Speaker 1: Or a progression as as we would say, right, I
- 33:18Speaker 1: like a positive regression. I guess it sounds like what
- 33:21Speaker 1: do you call that? A oxymoron?
- 33:22Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly, but it's just regressing to the meme regardless
- 33:26Speaker 2: of direction. It's just it is an interesting concept for sure.
- 33:31Speaker 1: All right, let's go on to the offensive line. And
- 33:33Speaker 1: I can tell you just from a tapewatch. As I
- 33:35Speaker 1: already mentioned, the interior of the old line has not
- 33:38Speaker 1: been great this year, and they missed some blocks in
- 33:40Speaker 1: the run game, especially against the Tampa Bay Bucks.
- 33:44Speaker 2: Yeah, and we don't have to spend a lot of
- 33:45Speaker 2: time here, but I think you're right. I think the
- 33:48Speaker 2: interior offensive line was a significant issue, mostly because Steen
- 33:53Speaker 2: allowed a pressure every seven snaps and landa Dickerson every
- 33:58Speaker 2: eight snaps.
- 33:59Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, and again. And this is this isn't run block,
- 34:02Speaker 1: this is past blocking.
- 34:03Speaker 2: This is fast block.
- 34:04Speaker 1: People all understand. I see more positives. And I mean
- 34:07Speaker 1: obviously when you face a team with a good defensive
- 34:10Speaker 1: front that blitzes a lot, and you have to really
- 34:11Speaker 1: be on your your cues. And I mean, great job.
- 34:14Speaker 1: I joined my lot of there. Good on Matt Pryor.
- 34:16Speaker 1: In the four snaps he played, Fred Johnson once again
- 34:19Speaker 1: comes in plays well lane Johnson two hurries, okay, but
- 34:23Speaker 1: he was also playing with obviously an injury that made
- 34:25Speaker 1: him leave in twenty seven snaps. Steen's four and twenty
- 34:30Speaker 1: eight is not great. I agree with that, and then
- 34:33Speaker 1: of course Dickerson's two and thirty two. I mean, six
- 34:36Speaker 1: hurries between your two guards and then one between your
- 34:38Speaker 1: center is not great. I think you're the one who
- 34:41Speaker 1: always says centers really should have zero, right, because they're
- 34:43Speaker 1: always usually in a double team. Although I guess when
- 34:46Speaker 1: you're seeing this many blitzes there probably were in a
- 34:48Speaker 1: five out situation a lot.
- 34:50Speaker 2: Yeah, in that case it should be more than zero.
- 34:53Speaker 2: But center is usually you're you're you know, you're you're
- 34:56Speaker 2: in the trenches. You're deep within the trenches. You should
- 34:58Speaker 2: usually be okay, right right.
- 35:01Speaker 1: Overall, I don't think anything here is overly bad. Would
- 35:05Speaker 1: you agree?
- 35:06Speaker 2: I wouldn't say overly bad, no, but concerning.
- 35:08Speaker 1: Yes, yeah. I mean again, if they were facing just
- 35:11Speaker 1: a four man rush a lot and I saw these
- 35:13Speaker 1: kind of hurry numbers, I would be like, oh man,
- 35:14Speaker 1: But they were facing a lot of pressure in the
- 35:16Speaker 1: first half for sure, manufactured pressure. All right. So let's
- 35:22Speaker 1: talk about the defense now.
- 35:24Speaker 2: Yeah, so again, just change the format how to explain it,
- 35:28Speaker 2: just because I think this is a better way to
- 35:30Speaker 2: understand it. Again, the middle column Eagles on the season.
- 35:34Speaker 2: The one on the right is the Eagles versus Tampa
- 35:36Speaker 2: Bay and this is in the defense. So again, negative
- 35:39Speaker 2: numbers are better here. Positive numbers are worse, at least
- 35:43Speaker 2: in the EPA context.
- 35:45Speaker 1: Right, And clearly they did better defensively against the Bucks
- 35:48Speaker 1: than they were doing for the season. They made it
- 35:50Speaker 1: hard on the Bucks.
- 35:51Speaker 2: Yeah, that was obvious.
- 35:51Speaker 1: Watching the game.
- 35:53Speaker 2: And again, save those two explosive plays from the Bucks,
- 35:56Speaker 2: and these numbers would be completely different.
- 35:58Speaker 1: Right.
- 36:00Speaker 2: The Eagles defense played pretty lights out besides those two plays. Right,
- 36:05Speaker 2: I will say that, you know Fangio's comments about the
- 36:09Speaker 2: kicking balls and the fact that they were able to
- 36:11Speaker 2: make extra those aren't field goals in last year's NFL
- 36:16Speaker 2: or any time before, I agree, which I think is
- 36:19Speaker 2: an important point. That just shows that this defense really
- 36:23Speaker 2: did a good job limiting the Bucks.
- 36:25Speaker 1: Yep. And it took them longer to get pressure, and
- 36:30Speaker 1: the Bucks have more time to throw right than ordinarily,
- 36:33Speaker 1: But I feel like that was because of Baker's ability
- 36:35Speaker 1: to kind of move around and Yeah, and then not
- 36:38Speaker 1: a lot of those times there were completed passes, so
- 36:41Speaker 1: he was able to hold onto the ball. He wasn't
- 36:43Speaker 1: getting pressured as much, but he also didn't complete a
- 36:46Speaker 1: high percentage of passes.
- 36:48Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, that the best way you can say it.
- 36:50Speaker 2: And you can see that net time before throw has
- 36:53Speaker 2: been better on the season. H just exactly to the
- 36:56Speaker 2: point you just made, right, And.
- 36:57Speaker 1: That's why the Egles have a higher pressure and set
- 37:00Speaker 1: percentage in this game than they had in previous games. Yep,
- 37:05Speaker 1: all right, Bucks receivers got a little bit higher of
- 37:10Speaker 1: an average separation.
- 37:12Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 37:12Speaker 1: Probably. Wait is that skewed a little bit by the
- 37:15Speaker 1: two big plays or is that not councul So those
- 37:18Speaker 1: were not real separation plays.
- 37:19Speaker 2: Well, the one tight window one was not separate. That
- 37:22Speaker 2: didn't have much separation, right, Baker threaded that ball. It
- 37:26Speaker 2: was one of the best throws I've seen, honestly, do
- 37:30Speaker 2: so much credit to Baker Mayfield in that throw. Most
- 37:33Speaker 2: quarterbacks as an incompletion or an interception. Yeah, but the
- 37:38Speaker 2: one did Bucky Irving. I believe he was pretty wide open,
- 37:40Speaker 2: so that one certainly.
- 37:42Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it was sort of like he just
- 37:44Speaker 1: led him with a bit because he had already slipped
- 37:45Speaker 1: past Campbell and scramble drill and slipped past him. Yeah.
- 37:50Speaker 1: Run stuff percent so the Eagles. So this means Eagles
- 37:53Speaker 1: have been stuffing runs at a twelve point four percent rate,
- 37:56Speaker 1: but only did it at eleven point five percent rate
- 37:58Speaker 1: against the Bucks.
- 37:59Speaker 2: Is that correct?
- 38:00Speaker 1: Okay? I think that is that fair? Saic sort of
- 38:03Speaker 1: negligible that number.
- 38:04Speaker 2: I would say that's negligible.
- 38:05Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, because it's not like the Bucks. I thought
- 38:07Speaker 1: the Eagles missed some tackles and that needs to be
- 38:11Speaker 1: cleaned up. But I didn't think that they were like
- 38:13Speaker 1: out of gaps. You know, remember Week one against the
- 38:15Speaker 1: Cowboys who ran up the middle pretty easily, and against.
- 38:19Speaker 2: That, Yeah, and honestly, Cooper Degene and the alley that
- 38:24Speaker 2: cleans up very well. Yes, And honestly it makes sense
- 38:28Speaker 2: why you'd want to keep him inside because he's just
- 38:31Speaker 2: so good at stopping runs. You know, passed as well.
- 38:37Speaker 1: Huge part of it. The Eagles stacked the box less
- 38:41Speaker 1: frequently than they have on the season, and they showed
- 38:46Speaker 1: lighter boxes, yep less frequently. So not a whole lot
- 38:50Speaker 1: of respect for the Tampa Bay run game, which wasn't bad.
- 38:53Speaker 1: I mean, I just don't think they feared it as much. Sure, yeah,
- 38:57Speaker 1: all right, I love your start. By the way, I
- 38:59Speaker 1: don't know if you heard it, but this is a
- 39:04Speaker 1: rare w for me. In the pregame show, we always
- 39:07Speaker 1: do a score prediction and a player of the game prediction,
- 39:10Speaker 1: and I like to like not always take the quarterback
- 39:13Speaker 1: because I think that's sometimes obvious. So I chose Quinjon
- 39:16Speaker 1: Mitchell as my pregame show player of the Game and
- 39:21Speaker 1: I feel really good about that.
- 39:23Speaker 2: Well, congrats on that. Maybe you should give me the
- 39:27Speaker 2: Powerball numbers too.
- 39:29Speaker 1: I mean, how many people actually pick a cornerback for
- 39:31Speaker 1: player of the game, right, like in very rare.
- 39:34Speaker 2: But to be honest with you, he was the player
- 39:36Speaker 2: of the game totally. He was the person that, regardless
- 39:40Speaker 2: of anyone, had to be the star of the statue.
- 39:42Speaker 2: The other one I was considering, I actually had like
- 39:44Speaker 2: a box for it was Zach Bond and I'll explain
- 39:47Speaker 2: that later, but truly it is Quinon Mitchell.
- 39:51Speaker 1: Two receptions for six yards on six targets twenty two
- 39:55Speaker 1: matchups against Igbuka. Six came in tightwin. I mean, he
- 39:59Speaker 1: just did everything he had. He had an amazing pass
- 40:01Speaker 1: breakup on Godwin where he was diving and he used
- 40:05Speaker 1: his left hand. This was a third down. Baker scrambled
- 40:08Speaker 1: to the right, threw it off the back foot onto
- 40:11Speaker 1: an out route on Godwin and he was there and
- 40:13Speaker 1: as they're both in the air, sort of scrolled out.
- 40:15Speaker 1: He uses his left hand to disrupt the ball, dislodge
- 40:18Speaker 1: it from Godwin who catches everything. And I'm like that,
- 40:21Speaker 1: that's like a living that's a matrix type of player.
- 40:24Speaker 4: You're feet are.
- 40:25Speaker 1: Off the ground and you are horizontal and you still
- 40:28Speaker 1: have the aptitude to be able to break a pass
- 40:30Speaker 1: up in the moment. That was unbelievable.
- 40:33Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean to be honest with you, not only
- 40:35Speaker 2: the fact that he played well, but the fact that
- 40:37Speaker 2: he was targeted significantly.
- 40:39Speaker 1: Yeah, that one I don't understand. I mean, you got
- 40:42Speaker 1: keelyy Ringo on the other side and they still went
- 40:44Speaker 1: at Quinyon Mitchell.
- 40:46Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't know if they were trying to make
- 40:48Speaker 2: a pointer, just saying that our guys are better and
- 40:50Speaker 2: we want to go to our best players. And you know, again,
- 40:53Speaker 2: Quinyon Mitchell took away the best options. Yeah, every time
- 40:57Speaker 2: he was on the field.
- 40:58Speaker 1: To give our listeners these great stats have.
- 41:00Speaker 2: Yeah, so first off, that the tight windows, the six
- 41:03Speaker 2: targets coming in tight windows is tied for the most
- 41:05Speaker 2: in any wide receiver quarterback matchup in a game since
- 41:08Speaker 2: twenty eighteen.
- 41:09Speaker 1: Wow, I would love to know which game that wasn't
- 41:11Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, but wow.
- 41:13Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely interesting. Uh, maybe it was. Uh, you know,
- 41:18Speaker 2: Mike Evans Lattimore wouldn't surprise me too much.
- 41:22Speaker 1: That's a good one. Yeah.
- 41:24Speaker 2: But also the Buccaneers lost minus five point seven EPA
- 41:29Speaker 2: when targeting AGBUCA against Mitchell and coverage. Let me say
- 41:33Speaker 2: that again. They lost minus five point seven expected points
- 41:37Speaker 2: at it. Wow, they lost essentially a touchdown by going afterwards.
- 41:41Speaker 1: That's unbelievable. Oh my god. I can understand why even
- 41:48Speaker 1: with Ringo on the other side. I mean, who else
- 41:50Speaker 1: without Mike Evans did he have to trust to throw
- 41:52Speaker 1: the ball or strolling Shepherd or I mean Godwin but
- 41:57Speaker 1: Godwin was a Yeah, I guess I would have on Godwin,
- 42:00Speaker 1: but Godwin's a slot guy mostly and he was probably
- 42:03Speaker 1: facing de Jene, so it's not easy.
- 42:05Speaker 2: Yeah, no, you're right. But also I think it's worth
- 42:09Speaker 2: noting what you were saying, right when not matched up
- 42:12Speaker 2: against Mitchell or yeah, when not let against Mitchell, Iguka
- 42:15Speaker 2: exploded for the two for four ninety five yards a touchdown,
- 42:18Speaker 2: which again very very tight window throw.
- 42:22Speaker 1: Right right, unbelievable. In Mitchell's other coverage opportunities, zero catches
- 42:27Speaker 1: on three. I mean, he was just unbelievable. And the
- 42:29Speaker 1: fact that he uncertained are going to be sharing the
- 42:31Speaker 1: field on Sunday for the Bronco That's pretty awesome.
- 42:35Speaker 2: It's a treat for people that love defensive football. Yes,
- 42:38Speaker 2: but Mitchell led the team in QBR with thirty nine
- 42:42Speaker 2: point six and coverage EPA minus nine.
- 42:45Speaker 1: Wow. That's so that's more than a touchdown at that point.
- 42:47Speaker 2: Amazing, amazing touchdown when everybody's involved. But I'm just saying,
- 42:51Speaker 2: just ongmuka right the way a touchdown.
- 42:54Speaker 1: Right, That's that's that's phenomenal and almost hard to believe
- 42:58Speaker 1: given the Eagles years and years and decades of missing
- 43:01Speaker 1: a cornerback that they were to hit so well on this,
- 43:04Speaker 1: I guess you know when you missed that long, when
- 43:06Speaker 1: you hit, you're gonna hit like a bonfire.
- 43:09Speaker 2: I mean, listen, when we were at the Senior Bowl
- 43:11Speaker 2: that year, we saw him, he just looked different than
- 43:14Speaker 2: everybody else. Yeah, I mean, he truly did. And when
- 43:17Speaker 2: the fact the Eagles took him, I mean, we weren't surprised,
- 43:20Speaker 2: but it's incredible what he's turned into.
- 43:23Speaker 1: All Right, I was surprised. Eagles took him. I surprised
- 43:25Speaker 1: you're still there. All right, let's let's go to the
- 43:30Speaker 1: rest of the defense here. Yeah.
- 43:32Speaker 2: So the Eagles defense generated a forty point nine percent
- 43:35Speaker 2: pressure rate on Baker Mayfield, their highest marxist the start
- 43:38Speaker 2: of the twenty twenty four season.
- 43:40Speaker 1: Okay, that's interesting because one of the bigger issues with
- 43:43Speaker 1: the Eagles is edge pressure. But also this is a
- 43:46Speaker 1: pressure rate, and we know that Vic is blitzing a
- 43:49Speaker 1: whole lot more this year than he has in the past,
- 43:52Speaker 1: so he's creating a manufacturing pressure because he's clearly not
- 43:56Speaker 1: thrilled right now with his fore man rush. Yeah.
- 43:59Speaker 2: I think you're right, and I think that's important context
- 44:02Speaker 2: because they probably could have gotten much higher if they
- 44:05Speaker 2: were doing the blitz rate at what they are this year.
- 44:08Speaker 2: But a very something that's that's exciting is ten different
- 44:13Speaker 2: Eagles defenders generated at least one pressure, including five of
- 44:18Speaker 2: them with at least three pressures. Depending on which stat
- 44:22Speaker 2: you look at, they're different. This is next Gen stats,
- 44:25Speaker 2: but PFFS actually has a little bit higher numbers for
- 44:29Speaker 2: some of these guys. But based on next Gen stats,
- 44:32Speaker 2: Bond was at five, Ojomo was at five, Smith was
- 44:35Speaker 2: four was four and Carter was three.
- 44:38Speaker 1: Which smith would that be? Oh, Zidarius?
- 44:40Speaker 2: Right?
- 44:41Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, And I think that this illustrates exactly what
- 44:44Speaker 1: I'm saying. Bond is your leader in pressures with five
- 44:49Speaker 1: and he only pressures on sim pressures when VIC is
- 44:53Speaker 1: manufacturing them as opposed to just natural four man rush.
- 44:57Speaker 1: So that's an example right there.
- 44:58Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it hits your point home very well.
- 45:02Speaker 2: Twelve of the eighteen pressures came under two point five seconds,
- 45:06Speaker 2: the first time the Eagles recorded a double digit quick
- 45:09Speaker 2: pressure total in a game since Week five, twenty twenty three.
- 45:12Speaker 1: Wow, that's pretty good.
- 45:14Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they're getting there quickly. It's definitely a
- 45:18Speaker 2: you know, a good sign.
- 45:19Speaker 1: Yeah. I definitely thought Mayfield was on the run a lot,
- 45:21Speaker 1: scrambling thrown off his back foot. And of course, you
- 45:24Speaker 1: know the bucks we mentioned they had, they got better
- 45:26Speaker 1: on the old line with the worst coming back with
- 45:28Speaker 1: their right guard and right tackle were like third stringers.
- 45:30Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, And then finally just a general thing on Bond.
- 45:34Speaker 2: He recorded five pressures, one sack, six defensive stops, and
- 45:38Speaker 2: allowed just one reception for one yard and coverage. He
- 45:42Speaker 2: generated four of his five pressures under two point five
- 45:45Speaker 2: seconds and now leads all linebackers save if it changed
- 45:50Speaker 2: on the Monday night games. But before that linebackers was
- 45:54Speaker 2: seven quick pressures this season.
- 45:56Speaker 1: Wow. You know, there's a whole generation of Eagles fans,
- 45:58Speaker 1: probably around your age, Sam, that just can't comprehend the
- 46:01Speaker 1: Eagles having a lockdown cornerback, a lockdown slot cornerback, and
- 46:07Speaker 1: also two off the ball linebackers who are incredible.
- 46:11Speaker 2: That's not even talking about Nakcobe Dean yet coming back eventually.
- 46:14Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, all right, going to the d line and
- 46:17Speaker 1: the pass rushing stats and can compel to you positively
- 46:22Speaker 1: or negatively here.
- 46:23Speaker 2: So for this one, obviously a car Quon quote hopefully
- 46:28Speaker 2: I didn't Butcher that, Wow, isn't out for the season.
- 46:34Speaker 2: He's out for the season. So it's kind of I
- 46:36Speaker 2: do want to say it's impressive as get off was
- 46:38Speaker 2: point six. Yeah, but when you have a point six
- 46:40Speaker 2: get off and generate no pressures, you know that doesn't
- 46:43Speaker 2: feel great. But then you look at the pass rushing
- 46:45Speaker 2: it's only two and you're like, okay, that kind of
- 46:47Speaker 2: makes sense. But that's it's a shame to lose him
- 46:51Speaker 2: because I mean that that's very exciting to see point
- 46:54Speaker 2: six get off. You don't really see that so much.
- 46:58Speaker 2: That's pretty elite. But either way that it's a shame
- 47:02Speaker 2: they're gonna have to figure something out. I will say that,
- 47:05Speaker 2: you know, you look at the other guys, uh, and
- 47:08Speaker 2: they're all under point eight for get off. You feel
- 47:11Speaker 2: really good about that. And then you see Ouch is
- 47:13Speaker 2: back at fifty five point six percent win rate on
- 47:17Speaker 2: seventeen and generated five pressures. You feel really good about that.
- 47:22Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely. I like the fact that is Darius Smith
- 47:25Speaker 1: had the slowest get off but the second highest pressure
- 47:31Speaker 1: rate and almost as many hurries as and pressures as
- 47:35Speaker 1: Uce On. Well, he did play twice as many steps,
- 47:38Speaker 1: but still.
- 47:40Speaker 2: It goes to show you that just because you get
- 47:42Speaker 2: there fast doesn't mean you're gonna win, right. I mean
- 47:46Speaker 2: Smith is technical, I mean he gets through, he gets
- 47:49Speaker 2: he got there still very fast, but he was able
- 47:52Speaker 2: to still win just because of his skill set and
- 47:55Speaker 2: moves right.
- 47:57Speaker 1: And I like how you put it here. For those
- 47:59Speaker 1: who are new, win percentage is when you beat the
- 48:01Speaker 1: blocker within two point five seconds of the snap, and
- 48:06Speaker 1: you know then there's some extra content. Elite is twenty
- 48:09Speaker 1: percent or more. Average ten to fifteen, so Zadaria Smith
- 48:12Speaker 1: thirty point eight and fifty five point six on just
- 48:15Speaker 1: seventeen snaps were very very good.
- 48:18Speaker 2: Yeah, and typically these numbers are like those elite numbers
- 48:21Speaker 2: are much better if you look at the season. Yeah,
- 48:24Speaker 2: but you know, in this little context, is still awful.
- 48:28Speaker 1: And then same thing with the interior defensive line. There
- 48:32Speaker 1: were a couple of times that the Eagles executed some
- 48:34Speaker 1: really good stunts, like the Ojomo sak on third down
- 48:37Speaker 1: that was huge in the fourth quarter. Came on a
- 48:40Speaker 1: stunt as well. Byron Young got in on a stunt
- 48:44Speaker 1: which did a nice job. So again, Vic, a lot
- 48:46Speaker 1: of this is VIC manufacturing things and the D line coach,
- 48:49Speaker 1: you know, really scheming. Well.
- 48:50Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, and again notably with the interior, like
- 48:56Speaker 2: anything under one second is pretty good, and everybody was
- 48:59Speaker 2: under one second.
- 49:00Speaker 1: Yeah, Almo's best game of the season, by the way,
- 49:03Speaker 1: because we've been talking about a Jomo and really where
- 49:06Speaker 1: has he been, Like, he had a great training camp,
- 49:07Speaker 1: This was his best.
- 49:08Speaker 2: Game and I don't think it will be his best
- 49:11Speaker 2: game by end of season, probably not, but I do
- 49:14Speaker 2: think so far, You're absolutely right. Yeah, I mean, listen
- 49:18Speaker 2: him and Carter, both having eighteen point eight percent win rate.
- 49:22Speaker 2: Great the get off, you know, both of them decent getoffs,
- 49:27Speaker 2: pretty good get offs actually had especially Yeah.
- 49:31Speaker 1: A little bit of a step back for Jordan Davis,
- 49:33Speaker 1: but you know that's you know, you're not gonna be
- 49:37Speaker 1: amazing every game.
- 49:39Speaker 2: That's true, and he still contributed so and he got
- 49:42Speaker 2: one pressure.
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- 52:08Speaker 1: the two things that sort of jump out at me,
- 52:11Speaker 1: Sam are one to monitor in the future of the
- 52:15Speaker 1: aj Brown separation stats and see how that does. And
- 52:19Speaker 1: two from a defensive standpoint, this defense is starting to
- 52:26Speaker 1: become backwards from what the Eagles used to be, which
- 52:29Speaker 1: is front four rush or pressure up front rush and
- 52:33Speaker 1: then help out the back end. It seems like the
- 52:36Speaker 1: back end is the star and helps out the rush.
- 52:39Speaker 2: It's so weird to say that, but you're right, You're
- 52:42Speaker 2: absolutely right.
- 52:44Speaker 1: And then when I say back, I'm not even just
- 52:46Speaker 1: talking about the corners, but like from off ball linebacker
- 52:49Speaker 1: to corner to safety. The is really just a full
- 52:53Speaker 1: complete one eighty from what the Eagles used to be.
- 52:55Speaker 2: You're absolutely right, and I think Fangio is savvy and
- 53:00Speaker 2: that he realizes that, and it's it's incredible to see,
- 53:04Speaker 2: you know, have that consistency at defensive coordinator, someone who
- 53:07Speaker 2: knows the game extremely well and is able to adjust
- 53:10Speaker 2: to it. And I'm not I don't think the Eagles
- 53:13Speaker 2: are done acquiring people. I do think you're going to
- 53:17Speaker 2: see potentially another edge, either signed or traded. Something's going
- 53:23Speaker 2: to happen there. I have a feeling, and honestly you
- 53:25Speaker 2: would know way more about that than I would. But
- 53:27Speaker 2: that's my gut, well.
- 53:29Speaker 1: You know my gut. And then plus knowing the team
- 53:32Speaker 1: is that and knowing getting no Vic is that Vic
- 53:36Speaker 1: probably is not happy that he's had the Blitz at
- 53:38Speaker 1: a thirty five to thirty six percent when he's normally
- 53:41Speaker 1: in the eighteen to twenty two percent. So I mean,
- 53:44Speaker 1: it's working for them, and he has players to do it.
- 53:46Speaker 1: But you know, I think he loves I. If you
- 53:48Speaker 1: shot him up with true siam, which you don't have
- 53:50Speaker 1: to do because he's pretty honest anyway, I think he
- 53:52Speaker 1: loves the fact that they won the Super Bowl without
- 53:55Speaker 1: blitzing a single time.
- 53:56Speaker 2: You know, yeah, I think so too. I mean it
- 53:59Speaker 2: was incredible feat by everyone, but especially by Vic. And
- 54:04Speaker 2: the Eagles are spoiled right now, they really are.
- 54:08Speaker 1: They are all right, great stuff, Sam. Thanks. We'll do
- 54:10Speaker 1: it again next week after the Eagles play the Broncos,
- 54:13Speaker 1: and then we'll go have to figure out some short
- 54:15Speaker 1: turnaround for that Giants. We'll have to pump this out
- 54:17Speaker 1: a little quicker as the Giants play on Thursday night
- 54:20Speaker 1: of the following week. So for Sam Finkel, I'm Jeff Mosher.
- 54:24Speaker 1: You've been watching Inside the Data on Inside the Birds