Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Imminent Bitcoin Move?📉Crypto Market Update

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Imminent Bitcoin Move?📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: With all this fed talk today we're going to be
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: breaking down how the market could respond to this. There's
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: a couple of different angles here. Stay tuned. My name
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: is Paul Baron. Welcome back in the tech path. Let's
• 0:15
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• 0:56
  Speaker 1: over to a couple of points I want to hit
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: on first, and obviously in the news right now, everybody's
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: talking about Trump and Powell. But this could have a
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: real trickle down effect into the markets, both from the
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: bond side of things, but also crypto. The White House
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: now is trying to figure out if they can actually
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: fire Jerome Powell, and that would be a market shift
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: for sure. Further into this, this was kobeec Trump is
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: accusing the Fed chair Powell of playing politics and says
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: that interest rate should be coming down now. Europe is
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: cutting rates, but our guy wants to play cute, he says,
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: he's just not doing it. So as you can see,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: you know the typical Trump rhetoric that you get out there.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: When he doesn't like something, he starts the name calling,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: which is not a good thing. It's not presidential, but hey,
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: that's just his game. I want to go to a
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: clip real quick because this will get into the whole
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: point of how these tariffs have actually kind of flipped
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: against his strategy anyway of trying to get interest rates lower.
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: Take a look, and what you're seeing is the ECB
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: get ahead of the taroff shaw At the same time,
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: going into this shock, the European economy with softer inflation,
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: was on a downward trajectory and the ECB is responding.
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: So I don't want to say one is ahead of
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: the other. It's more that the economic situation and the
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: set of challenges facing the economy is much different in
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: Europe than it is in the United States. Well, that's
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: very much my view that you know, the fat ass
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: two objectives. One is low inflation and the other one
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: is job creation and solid growth. And the tariffs are
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: working against both those objectives. So what do you do?
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: All right? So Powell is in a bit of a
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: tough place right now, and this, of course, with the
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: teriffs themselves have started to structure into the bond market.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: I'll get into that in a second. But if this
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: is possible, if the FED were to be in a
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: position where maybe Pow would step down, what would that
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: do to the market. Take a look at this clip.
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: There's one thing you have to remember. I know that
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: the conventional wisdom is that this is an attack on
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: the independence of the FED. There was another way of
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: looking at this, which is this FED has sacrificed people
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: in the past. If you remember the president of the
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: Dallas FED, the president of the Boston FED. The vice
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: chair was sacrificed ahead of Congress looking into allegations of
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: inside the trading. If you remember, the potential side was
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: sacrificed to protect the monetary policy side. And it wouldn't
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: surprise me if President Trump is pushing on this, because
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: there's a real question for Chair Powe should he step
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: down to preserve the independence of the FED, because otherwise
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: the Federal will be the subject of a lot of
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: attacks going forward. You know, I could see a scenario
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: in which what Secretary Bassett said before the election plays out,
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: where they pre announced Kevin as the next chair, and
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: then that puts tremendous pressure and then chair power it
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: has to make a very difficult decision, all right.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: So you can kind of see a lot of moving
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: parts here. And part of this will be that there
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: is some history of a FED chair stepping down and
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: or at least a handful of the leadership within the
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Federal Reserve. And I think this is where it gets
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: interesting because if this were to happen, then you are
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: potentially going to see a market shift. Now, the question
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: is which way does the market shift with the current
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: pressure from both macro tariffs and the global stance right
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: now in monetary policy, the market could shift down. Here's
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Muhammed talking about that. Take a look.
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: So I think the market would look at Kevin Walsh
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: and think he's a very credible fet chair. And I
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: think the market would rather have a credible fetchair that's
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: not in continuous conflict with the White House than being
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: continuous comfortable. God the Harvard example gives you is an
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: illustration of what can happen. You can suddenly. We have
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: also some other things questioned about the FED. If it's
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: in direct conflict with the White House, isn't.
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: This conversation alone putting in question the independence of the FED.
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: We're talking about scenarios where we could basically get around
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: the White House to placate the president.
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  Speaker 3: But we've seen that scenarios where they've gone around to
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: Congress to placate the Congress. We've seen a situation where
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: in the beginning they sacrifice it with entest one. Michael
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: Bob was a vice chair and he stepped down. So
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: I don't think this is a much structural break, but
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: I do think there's a very delicate judgment, and Marie
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: here very delicate, and I'm glad I don't have to
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: make it all right.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: So as you can see, guys, this is why it's
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: very important to really kind of look at where the
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: market situation is right now. But I want to go
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: to this point right here, and that is, could Trump
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: remove Chair pal now remove? Or step down? Is the question?
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Market for the poly market bed because I think this
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: would be remove that I think is very low. The
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: real question would be would chair Pale step down? Now?
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: That would be a poly market I don't think there's
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: one up there yet. Would he step down? That could
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: be on a greater scale. And that's what Mohammad was
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: talking about. There is precedence for this to occur, and
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: he is right in the sense that with the Fed
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: and the White House both battling, we could see a
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: continued stress in the markets. Darius Dale, who's been on
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: our show many times, hits on a couple of things
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: in terms of Potus versus Powell, and a couple of
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: things he hits on it would be disastrous for the
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: bank of the bond market, for the Federal Reserve to
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: demonstrate a lack of independence and disregard for inflation. I
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: agree with that, because if inflation does in fact go
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: up because of these terrors. That's still a question that
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: we have not seen yet, but it does look as
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: though it will. For the first time in years, is
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: no longer attractive in cross currency adjusted basis for foreign
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: investors to invest in our bond market. That would be
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: a problem. And that is what he's getting at, because
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: when you look at it, Trump has created a crisis
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: of confidence in US assets and this is a thing
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: that will continue to see. This obviously is rolling out
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: because of the tariff policy. I think Darius is right here,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: but you also look at the US dollar, which is
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: also in free fall. That means that people are looking
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: to other asset classes. Why you're seeing gold move, why
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: we're starting to see bitcoin holding a stable percent position
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: over eighty k Within that, you look further in there,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: the rest of the world has a fine, has been
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: fine giving US cash in exchange for IOUs to live
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: on the high on the hog unit. You kind of
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: get the whole point, but it cannot be over saved.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: The US exceptionalist was a primary function of that. Largest
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Now now I look at it in this sense is
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: that when you look at the US, the financial system
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: is definitely the premium financial system globally. Everybody wants to
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: be a part of it. That's why the bonds continue
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: to be a great opportunity. But it also has two
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: other maje major pillars, and that of course is going
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: to be the technology advancement here in the United States. Still,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: to this day, China continues to steal a lot of
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: the IP because of the lack of inventive innovation there. Now,
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: can the US maintain that, that's a big question. We've
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: been able to hold that over the EU, hold it
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: over almost every developing country, even with the fact that
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: we started to see a shift in blockchain moving mostly
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: into the Asian markets, and now I think you're going
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: to see a lot more of it here in the
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: United States. And then the third is going to be consumer.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: The consumer itself is the most powerful consumer on the planet.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Everybody needs this consumer base because it does contribute to
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: almost thirty percent of the GDP in terms of the
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: global transactions around sales. J Powell knows all of this,
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: and he's doing what he can to preserve what is
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: and I agree, an absurdly cost of capital right now.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: What every central bank would do to stem capital outflows
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: during a crisis. Mainly, what he's talking about here is
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: just get into a position of continue to push on inflation.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: And I think that's the big question forward. The fact
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: that bond's rally durn Pal's an incredibly hawkish speech is
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: a confirmation I would agree with that, with what Darius
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: is saying. I still believe though that the US is
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: in a very good position, even though these tariffs do
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: start to change the bond market in a way. I
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: don't know if I agree with Jamie Diamond where he
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: thinks that we are in a monetary global monetary shift,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: something bigger than a recession, something much greater. Could it
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: be the next digital Breton Woods that is about to
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: happen right in front of us. Further into this, you've
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: got kobeec talking about foreign investors dumping US stocks. This
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: is probably going to happen across the US investors dumping
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: foreign stocks soon. Investors oversee almost about six point five
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: billion in US equity funds over the last week, not
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: a lot, but that is a significant amount in comparison.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Net outflows were below seven point five billion during the
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: week in the twenty twenty three bank crisis, and Apollo
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: is talking about this right now. Eighteen five trillion eighteen
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: point five trillion of US stocks, or twenty percent of
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: the US equity market are so foreigners. So that is
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: a big deal even with twenty percent of the market.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: But I don't know that you'd see a twenty percent
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: evacuation there because I think there's going to be deals made.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: There's going to be deals made that will, you know,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: smooth this down. It will have to happen. I think
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: the key is Trump is going to look for those
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: windows to try to claim wins going forward, and this
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: is what they're looking at right now. On the chart
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: you can kind of see this is the exodus that
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: we are starting to see on US equity. So that's
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: why we're seeing the S and P five hundred moving downward.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Question is is when and how long are we going
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: to see this position play out? Because what we're seeing
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: right now with gold, bitcoin and possibly some other assets,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: but cash right now is definitely king. Now let's take
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: a look at bitcoin because there's a couple of people
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: that are looking at different strategies here. What can happen
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: to bitcoin as this plays out. Some people are looking
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: at volatility, which could say, all right, maybe this plays
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: out for a little bit of time. And do we
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: see it start to move into a position right now?
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: This cryptoquant revealed that about one hundred and seventy thousand
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: dollars bitcoin or one hundred and seventy thousand bitcoin owned
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: by entities where the purchase date between three and six
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: has begun to circulate. So could we start to see
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: a little bit movement. Remember that's been a good move
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: up for bitcoin owners, so could we see some volatility?
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Large movement from this group often signal that they mean
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: volatility is inbound, and that is the real question mark.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: Further into that, you look at bitcoin versus gold, this
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: is the counter to that because it's still very easy
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: to get access to bitcoin, and when you're in a
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: market like you are right now, where things are moving
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: so quickly, people are trying to go for quick and
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: fast to get into something that they feel can hold value.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: And you look at this right here. Both Bitcoin and
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: goal are available in the form of tokenized assets. But
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: the question really is owning these assets in their original
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: form reveals a lot of big differences and buy and bitcoin,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: as we know, very fast in comparison to gold. There's
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: the breakdown, you know when you look at it and
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Let me know in the comments down below.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Do you is bitcoin your alternative? I think if you're
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: watching our channel, but you also may be looking at
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: diversification and saying no, I think I'd like to own
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: a little bit of gold as well. What routes are
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: you guys taking to try to avoid what we're seeing
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: right now, which is really a securities meltdown and it
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: may continue as well as with the bonds. Last point
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: I want to hit on, and this is Lynn Alden
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: who's been on our show before. We're going to have
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: her back on. She has a really good prediction here
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: that I think is relevant. Let me kind of zoom
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: in on this for you guys. So Bitcoin likely to
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: trend higher for another year or so, So that in
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: itself could be very positive for bitcoin investors, especially trading
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: at eighty five today. Black swan event could happen rare
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: and anticipate unanticipated event that could cause a problem. The
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: thing that I am worried about right now is still
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: China and the US because as we continue in this crosshair,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: it could put a lot more pressure on technology in Taiwan,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: which of course we all know what that means. That
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: would be the kind of black swan that could really
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: shake things up. But if you look at this, even
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: in that scenario, it could be around a thirty percent
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: market crash or correction and then rebuilding from there. So
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: if we do see growth on bitcoin, maybe now is
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: the right time. There are a lot of other assets
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: on the all coin sector that could still be in
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: a massive run up, especially if you start to see
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: interest rates coming down. So you see how this stuff
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: is kind of balancing right now. It's a very tight
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: rope that we're walking though. Short answer though she's talking
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: about I think longer term bitcoin's run still happening, though
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: she is not a big proponent of the cycles, which
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: I have talked about for a lot of times here
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: on the show, and me neither. I think we've kind
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: of moved beyond that now with where crypto is and
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: in general. But it does put us in a position
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: right now where twenty twenty six could actually be the
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: bad year. Twenty five is just a very volatile year
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: where there's a lot of opportunity. Let me know how
• 14:15
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