Latest / Racers Odds / NASCAR San Diego Preview: Will SVG Be Your Wingman?

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NASCAR San Diego Preview: Will SVG Be Your Wingman? · Racers Odds

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to another episode of Racer's Odds.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_01: I'm David Styles.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_01: He is Andrew Curland, and Deenny Hamlin completes the trifecta at the tricky triangle, making it three in a row for him on the season.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: And that points lead is getting ever slim for Tyler Reddick.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: He's now within 19 points.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Andrew, great race in Pocono.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: Very different style of track, but Toyota still very strong.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: We did pretty well in our bet slips.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_01: You had Hamlin as a race winner.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: You were able to cash that, and it turned out to be pretty lucrative for you.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: You're still up$300 plus dollars on the bet book.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: You're still positive.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: Um I'm trending in the right direction.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: I've fluctuated ever so slightly back and forth all season long.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: I'm$13 to the negative.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm still all right.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you can you can change that this weekend.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: How much you got how much you got to put on SVG to gain$13?
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: That's what I think you should do.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_01: Well, let me break out the calculator and we'll do the math because as we get ready to go to San Diego and Naval Base Coronado, the odds on the winner are absolutely bonkers across the three different sports books that we frequent pretty genuinely.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_01: Caesars has Shane Van Gisbergen to win at minus one seventy-five on DraftKings, minus one sixty, and then on BetMGM minus one forty five.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_01: So the best odd that you can find him on the three books that we use pretty regularly, BetMGM minus one forty five.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: If you're going to do that, if you put$10 on him at minus$145, you would get six dollars and ninety cents back plus your original ten dollar bet or ten unit bet for a total of sixteen dollars and ninety cents.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: So there you go.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's that's kind of a price breakout.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: So I'd gotta I gotta bet uh 10 units on SVG to win at minus 145, and I I'm I'll get sixteen dollars back and I'll be three dollars within within the margin.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't think this week is really the week to bet on your long shot winners because we've never raced at this place before.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_01: It is a racetrack conjured up out of the ground on a naval base.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_01: And Andrew, this one is going to be wild.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: I think we'll see some interesting things happen.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of bumps in this track.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: It looks at one point like the cars could almost go airborne, but if it's good money plus money on Shane Van Gisbergen, take it because there is not any bet that I have found on the sports books where he is plus money.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: I think his top ten on DraftKings is minus two thousand.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: Just absurd numbers.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, if there's any week to go with a minus odd on a race winner in a cup race, it's this weekend.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: SVG, man, minus 145.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: Give me that, and I think I'm gonna take a little bit of a swing.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna put 50,$50 on SVG to win at minus 145.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: That will give me a little bit of my return, hopefully.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: And David, you know, you said I'm 300 up, so might as well start taking some swings now.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, man, he's led in 13 of his 14 road course starts.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: He's trying to be the first driver, I think, in history, to win his first eight cup races on a road course.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's just gonna be a matter of a race for second, and if something happens to SVG, and this is a difficult racetrack, there is a really significant dip in the road uh going into turn number one, right about when you're at your braking zone.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: I uh got a chance to run some laps on iRacing around San Diego, and that is really sketchy.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: The breaking zone into turn number two is really sketchy.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: There's another big dip right when you hit the brake pedal.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: Um at one point you cross over railroad tracks.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_01: So I was gonna say they have trolley tracks in the middle of this race course.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_01: Like that a lot of bumps.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I saw there's one spot where there's actually new pavement, and it's like you want to gas up over the new pavement before you go back onto the old racing surface, which is part of a runway.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_01: And then there's one turn, I think, where you actually come down and you're looking at the aircraft carrier.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_01: So this turn two race.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: And that's that's where there's a big dip in the road.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, this race is gonna have lots of wild things happen, I think.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_01: And then there's a good passing zone where there's some S's where it looks like you could set someone up for a good corner, but I I don't I don't really know what the telemetry is of that of even setting up that pass.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_01: You would know more than me.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, I mean, I ran single laps around it, and by no means am I an expert because I don't think I made a single lap around the track without spinning out.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: So um turn 11 was my nightmare spot, but the biggest thing that I noticed, at least for me visually, is there are some blind chicanes, especially towards the end of the lap.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: You take a hard left-hand corner, there's a wall that kind of hides the tire barrier that um you gotta make sure that your right side tires are on the correct side of uh by the time you get to it.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, it's gonna be a difficult racetrack.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: I think SVG is gonna dominate.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: Really, the question is who's gonna be the next best guy?
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: I look at two drivers in particular, and this is a bet that I think would be kind of a fun race within the race to follow, and that's the top Toyota.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: I look at Tyler Reddick and Ty Gibbs to be those two guys competing for the top Toyota spot.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you can pick Tyler Redick at plus 110 to be the top performing Toyota.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: I do like that.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: Um I like I like Ty Gibbs as well.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, he finished second at the last street race that we had at Chicago last year.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: Um, he's minus 150 to top 10.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: I feel really solid about that.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: Um and then there's Connor Zilich, who has had just like the worst run uh as of late and the worst luck that a rookie I feel like could have in the cup series.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: But when it comes to this type of racetrack, you can't ignore him.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: Um and I feel like he can be a guy who can get a top 10.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: He's one of the best passers in the field at road courses.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: So Connor Zilich is another guy that I'm watching to kind of be the race within a race.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_01: Just a straight up forecast.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_01: I think a Blaney top 10 at plus 110.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_01: He's the first driver that has plus odds when you do the top 10.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: He's sneaky good at road courses.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_01: I know that he doesn't have the wins, but he usually runs well in the stages, has good track position.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_01: If they can keep that car in the mix, I think he could top 10.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: That's plus 110.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: I think I'm gonna put a few units on that as well.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_01: If you're looking for the cash out game, this was a this is a reach deep down in the bag.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_01: Michael McDowell, plus 1,600 to win.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_01: I think McDowell will be pretty solid at this race course.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_01: Um cash out game would probably be pretty strong on him.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_01: And then if you're looking for someone who has experience and hasn't win on the other Chicago Street course, Alex Bowman in some kind of bet might be decent.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: I know he's been off of his metric this year so far, but I'm I think they're starting to gain a little bit of momentum.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_01: I know they're mired 32nd in points.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: He's deep down in the points lead.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_01: So they're they're gonna do something, I think, to try to flip their strategy and maybe get back in this a little bit to just give them uh some more momentum as they go on through the season.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_01: So transitioning a little bit, those are just some, you know, straight up race winner or some cash out game stuff.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: You know me, I'm gonna default to these matchups.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of different matchups that you can go.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_01: I picked eight different ones across two different sports books, and I settled on three of them that I like.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: Uh Chase Elliott versus Kyle Larson.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: Both of them minus 115.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: This one's on Caesars.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to put a little bit of units on Kyle Larson.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: That's just an intuition thing.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's ran pretty well at Sonoma in the past.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_01: He's been decent on uh different street courses that we've gone to.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: I know Chase Elliott used to be the road course king, but in the next gen car, he's just not been up to snuff as some of our other drivers.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_01: So in that matchup, I like Kyle Larson minus 115.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the other one, you mentioned Ty Gibbs being the other really good Toyota in the field.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_01: He's matched up with Michael McDowell.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_01: McDowell plus 110, Ty Gibbs minus 140.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna put a few units on McDowell because he is plus money.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_01: And if he finishes ahead of Gibbs, I that's a pretty good win for you there.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: My third and final matchup, Blaney versus Hamlin.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_01: This one's on DraftKings.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_01: Blaney's favored, minus 130, Hamlin minus 105.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna lay a few units on Blaney at minus 130.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: So that's that's about all the bets that I have.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, this this week is very strong on Shane Van Gisbergen.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: Bet the favorites and bet anyone that you have a little bit of an inclination on that they may be good on the road course.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: And there's a few of those.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we've mentioned them already.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_01: And one guy that we haven't mentioned, AJ Almendinger.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: Um, there's a matchup with him between him and Chase Briscoe.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_01: They're both even minus 115.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: That may be another person that you look at in a matchup bet to kind of diversify your portfolio a little bit here as we get ready to short this one.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: AJ's had top 20 finishes in the last seven road course races that he's run at.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: Um more so in that 10th to 20 range, but uh is a front half of the field type of guy when it comes to road courses.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: Larson concerns me just a little bit.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I mean, he's only got two top 10 finishes in his last eight road course races.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: Um but like you said, Chase Elliott is also on some sort of cold streak when it comes to racing at the road courses.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: Um but let's see, I've got my notes here.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: Who else do I have?
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_00: All right, here's something interesting.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and this is if we want to put a little parlay together here on top 10 finishes.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I like SVG, you know I like Reddick, you know I like Ty Gibbs.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_00: If all three of them finish in the top ten, it's at plus 145.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: I really like those.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: Um I feel like you're gonna have to have something go wrong to get any one of those three guys to finish outside of the top 10.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_00: Um, now there's a ton of unknowns, obviously, with this race.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: There's drivers who don't even know how much grip we're gonna have once we actually get to the racetrack.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: Eric Jones said in some of the media availabilities that he's had over the past couple of weeks that they showed up to Chicago thinking they were gonna have the lowest amount of grip and just like zero zero ability to to wheel and maneuver the car, and it actually ended up being one of their higher gripped up tracks for them at Legacy Motorsports Motor Club.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: So you really don't know what's gonna happen, but uh I think this is the week where you go SVG.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: I'm a little worried about Chris Ferbel.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: He's got the road course prowl.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just concerned about his ability to shift.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: I know Brent Cruz will be on standby for Bell.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: I just think it's gonna be a wonky weekend for him and the 20 team while he's still battling this uh fracture of his left wrist.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: And when it comes to road courses, yes, it's not his shifting hand, but when you're shifting, your other hand's gotta be on the wheel.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: Your other hand's gotta be steering.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: And um I don't know.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: I'm I'm just staying away from Bell.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not saying he's gonna have a bad weekend.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just cautious when it comes to uh what I think he's gonna do.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_01: I don't have him on any of my bet slips this week.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I'm I'm like you, I'm kind of staying away from him.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_01: I hope that he heals up really quickly because he is good on these road courses, and we've got a number of them back to back.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_01: We go to Naval Base Coronado this week, and then next week we'll be in Sonoma.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_01: So uh, and that'll start this in season bracket challenge that we have coming up, and that's also a different wrinkle.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_01: I know we did it last year, but it's a different wrinkle as far as the betting side goes.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_01: I know right now you can only bet on the winner of the uh in-season bracket challenge, and so I'm interested to see if we will get these actual matchups that are in the bracket that we can bet on next week because like I keep saying it, I like the matchups.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_01: The matchups, I'm I'm pretty good at picking one versus one versus one versus the field.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_01: So uh, you know, that that's kind of been my bread and butter, and and I'm starting to inch back up into the positives, like we said on the dashboard.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_01: I'm only down about 13 units.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_01: So hopefully if that comes into fruition for next week, we can get a lot of those onto the show and maybe help you do a good job picking your bracket.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_00: So why don't we get into pick them, David?
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: Going into San Diego this weekend.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_00: I am worried because the first pick for this is gonna be a big one.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I played it perfectly.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_00: You picked Suarez, you got 32 points.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: Dang guy runs good.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_00: Are you kidding me?
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_01: I picked Cole Custer.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_01: He got 13.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_01: So I have I have chagrined my way into the pick.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: I just can't screw it up.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm gonna pick Shane Van Gisbergen.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_01: And that's the smartest pick I can make.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_01: I hope he wins every stage and wins the race and gets 75 points because I'm down about 80-ish, 90-ish points.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_01: And if I do that, maybe I can make up some ground, and as we get closer to the end of the season, I'm I'm gonna start shooting my bigger bullets and we'll we'll see what happens.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_00: Alright, so you took SVG and that stinks.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna go with his teammate, uh, Connor Zilich, who's had a pretty rough rookie year.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: I think if he has any good run this season, we're down to two road course races left.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: Give me Connor Zilich.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_01: I like it.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_01: He had a shot at Watkins Glenn, cooked his tire.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_01: I know it.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_00: I know it.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_01: But he's an up-and-comer.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_01: Uh uh, let's not crown him before you know that his career blossoms fully, but he's a good race car driver.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_01: He's just had a lot of rookie mistakes.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_01: I like that pick, though.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_01: So SVG versus Connor Zilich, teammates in the pick'em.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_01: I think I I think I've played it right.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_01: What do you think?
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_01: Did I play that I played it well?
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: Well, guess who I'm picking at Sonoma?
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'm picking SVG because no matter what happens, you can't pick him.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: So um, I at least feel better about uh being able to do that.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_01: Well, there you go.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: So again, SVG is your favorite.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_01: He's minus 145.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: That's the best odds we can find for him.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_01: Put a few units on him, see what happens.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, it'll be a great race.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_01: First time we've ever raced at this road course.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks for checking out the show.
• 15:09
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• 15:16
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• 15:19
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• 15:23
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• 15:32
  SPEAKER_01: Andrew, any closing thoughts here as we wrap this one up?
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_00: No, I'm I'm gonna be just curious to see what happens, really.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: Um my curiosity, my interest is peaked when it comes to San Diego.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's gonna be a cool weekend.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I hope the racing's good, uh, but at the very least, I think the visuals that we're gonna get on TV and uh the action that MRN is gonna give us over the air is gonna be uh pretty interesting.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we'll have a triple header.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_01: It'll be Trucks, O'Reilly, and Cup.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_01: So it's a big weekend for NASCAR as we head out to Naval Base Coronado.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_01: For Andrew Curland, I'm David Stiles.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks for stopping by, Racer's Odds.