Latest / The Game Business Show / Major publishers plan to delay games in face of GTA 6 threat… but are they right to?

Transcript

Major publishers plan to delay games in face of GTA 6 threat… but are they right to? · The Game Business Show

0:00
SPEAKER_01: So in the UK,
0:02
SPEAKER_01: 94% of all revenue made on video games the week GTA came out,
0:04
SPEAKER_01: GTA 5 came out,
0:05
SPEAKER_01: was on GTA 5.
0:07
We also don't know the extent to which Rockstar will find
0:09
itself competing with itself.
0:11
SPEAKER_02: This is something that Nintendo is actually facing as well.
0:16
SPEAKER_01: Hello and welcome to The Game Business Show with me, Christopher Dring.
0:20
We are a new publication all about the business of video games
0:23
and will offer,
0:24
SPEAKER_01: to quote the fancy press release that went out yesterday,
0:27
SPEAKER_01: essential insights,
0:28
trends and strategic opportunities shaping the future of
0:31
interactive entertainment.
0:33
SPEAKER_01: You're listening or watching the show right now,
0:34
SPEAKER_01: but alternatively you can receive all the key takeaways,
0:37
quotes and insights by signing up to our newsletter at thegamebusiness.com.
0:42
SPEAKER_01: So you're listening to the show and we have two types of show.
0:45
SPEAKER_01: We have our feature show,
0:46
which will usually be an interview with a games leader or some description.
0:49
SPEAKER_01: It might also be a deep dive into an individual topic.
0:52
SPEAKER_01: But what we're listening to today is our first episode,
0:54
SPEAKER_01: and it is on our news and analysis show,
0:57
where we will look at a series of different developments going
1:00
on in the video game space.
1:02
SPEAKER_01: If you happen to have ever listened to the gamesindustry.biz microcast,
1:05
SPEAKER_01: which I used to co-host,
1:06
SPEAKER_01: then you'll have some idea of what this show might be like.
1:10
SPEAKER_01: But there is one key difference.
1:11
SPEAKER_01: I used to host that podcast with James Batchelor,
1:14
SPEAKER_01: who was the former editor in chief of gamesindustry.biz.
1:16
SPEAKER_01: But James has gone and got a job in the industry working for a publisher,
1:20
SPEAKER_01: which I'm sure you'll all agree is outrageous.
1:23
So we set out on a mission to find someone to fill James's shoes,
1:27
James's very large shoes.
1:28
SPEAKER_01: And in the end, we couldn't settle on any one person.
1:31
SPEAKER_01: So we're going to have guest hosts for this part of the show.
1:33
And the cool thing about that is that not only do I get the
1:36
chance to work with
1:36
SPEAKER_01: brilliant journalists and analysts,
1:38
but hopefully we'll be able to bring on people from different
1:40
walks of life,
1:40
SPEAKER_01: different backgrounds,
1:41
SPEAKER_01: different experiences,
1:42
SPEAKER_01: different parts of the industry.
1:44
SPEAKER_01: And if you think that might be one of you,
1:46
SPEAKER_01: or if that person might be you,
1:47
SPEAKER_01: or if there's someone you know who you think would be great for this,
1:50
SPEAKER_01: drop me a line.
1:51
SPEAKER_01: I'm on chris at thegamebusiness.com.
1:52
SPEAKER_01: I really do want to hear from you.
1:54
SPEAKER_01: But for week one,
1:56
SPEAKER_01: I have a video games media royalty with us,
1:58
SPEAKER_01: hailing from Kotaku,
2:00
SPEAKER_01: MTV News,
2:01
SPEAKER_01: Axios,
2:01
SPEAKER_01: and now runs Gamefile,
2:02
SPEAKER_01: a video game news that you really,
2:04
SPEAKER_01: really should subscribe to.
2:05
SPEAKER_01: It's none other than Stephen Tortillo.
2:08
SPEAKER_01: Hello, Stephen.
2:08
SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the show.
2:09
SPEAKER_01: Thank you for having me, Chris.
2:10
SPEAKER_01: It's exciting to be the first.
2:12
SPEAKER_01: I know you are.
2:13
SPEAKER_01: You are.
2:14
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
2:15
it's exciting exciting is the word um i'm also absolutely
2:19
terrified um but um we
2:21
saw it till the last week we were i saw you at a next fix event
2:24
and i uh and uh
2:26
shortly after the gdc awards is that the right way of saying it
2:30
um how did how was
2:31
SPEAKER_01: the show did you enjoy it
2:33
SPEAKER_02: My show, yeah, the show was good.
2:35
SPEAKER_02: It was nice.
2:36
SPEAKER_02: I've managed to master going to shows and not coming home sick,
2:40
which was a challenge for a long time between getting COVID
2:45
from recent trade shows
2:46
SPEAKER_02: or just like,
2:47
SPEAKER_02: you know,
2:47
SPEAKER_02: you keep long hours.
2:48
SPEAKER_02: You're kind of working from the moment you wake up.
2:50
SPEAKER_02: You stay out late, schmoozing, networking, whatever.
2:53
SPEAKER_02: You don't sleep a lot.
2:54
Well,
2:54
for me,
2:55
I guess a weak constitution,
2:56
but I'm feeling healthy,
2:58
hell,
2:59
hearty right now.
3:00
SPEAKER_02: Things are good.
3:01
SPEAKER_01: I know that you had a bit of an adventure getting home.
3:04
SPEAKER_01: Yes.
3:05
SPEAKER_01: We're recording this on Monday.
3:06
SPEAKER_01: We're launching this show this week.
3:08
SPEAKER_01: So I was very eager to get home from GDC in a reasonable time.
3:12
SPEAKER_01: So I actually was going to miss the final day, fly back Thursday.
3:16
SPEAKER_01: And if you saw the news,
3:18
SPEAKER_01: Heathrow Airport,
3:19
SPEAKER_01: London Heathrow,
3:20
SPEAKER_01: the biggest,
3:21
SPEAKER_01: the most busiest airport in Europe,
3:23
SPEAKER_01: closed on Friday because of a fire.
3:26
SPEAKER_01: That fire happened while I was in the air.
3:30
SPEAKER_01: five hours into the flight.
3:34
I was sort of partly asleep when we always came over the tannoy
3:38
and I woke up to
3:39
SPEAKER_01: see loads of people milling about and moving about.
3:41
SPEAKER_01: Had to turn back.
3:42
SPEAKER_01: So I got to see the full... I have to say, I was very stressed.
3:45
SPEAKER_01: I wanted to see my kids.
3:46
SPEAKER_01: I wanted to get this ready.
3:47
But my last impromptu day at GDC was spent in a pub with the
3:53
heads of Curve and
3:54
SPEAKER_01: Devolver and Raw Fury and Playstack.
4:00
SPEAKER_01: sort of indie development publishing leaders.
4:03
And there was a lot of gossiping and it sharing,
4:05
which will inevitably come up at some point.
4:07
SPEAKER_01: So I actually had quite a lovely final day.
4:09
SPEAKER_01: I did manage to get a flight home earlier.
4:11
SPEAKER_01: I had to go via Washington.
4:12
SPEAKER_01: I did get home in time.
4:14
SPEAKER_01: And I don't get jet lag coming home.
4:17
SPEAKER_01: It's only out in the US, I get it.
4:18
SPEAKER_01: So I'm feeling also vibrant and fresh.
4:21
SPEAKER_02: So when you're five hours into a flight,
4:23
SPEAKER_01: they don't just land at the nearest airport,
4:24
SPEAKER_02: they send you back to where you started?
4:26
SPEAKER_02: That's outrageous.
4:27
SPEAKER_01: Some places they landed,
4:28
but I think the thing is with this is that with every flight
4:31
goes to different
4:31
locations and then they need to try and get things back into
4:34
running order again.
4:35
Having a plane that needs to be in Heathrow or San Francisco in
4:39
like Iceland or
4:40
SPEAKER_01: Paris and having lots of that stuff,
4:42
SPEAKER_01: I think became a bit of a nightmare.
4:43
SPEAKER_01: And I think it
4:44
SPEAKER_01: That's my guess.
4:46
That's my reading between the lines of trying to get things up
4:49
and running.
4:49
SPEAKER_01: And they did get things up and running again.
4:50
It is now,
4:52
people are still being flown home,
4:53
but it seems to have recovered from the fire.
4:58
SPEAKER_01: Blew up a substation or something, electricity substation.
5:01
SPEAKER_01: But yes, I had a good show.
5:02
SPEAKER_01: What I felt about the show is the mood of the industry really affects me.
5:07
SPEAKER_01: And when I was at GDC last year,
5:09
SPEAKER_01: Honestly, I felt panicked almost.
5:12
SPEAKER_01: And whereas this year,
5:14
SPEAKER_01: I don't want to say optimistic,
5:15
but there seemed to be an element of clarity about the games
5:17
market at the minute.
5:18
At least my vibe I got was people maybe accepting what the
5:23
reality is and stages of grief.
5:28
SPEAKER_01: Stages of grief.
5:29
Well,
5:30
it's not very funny to laugh at,
5:31
but there's an element of truth to that,
5:32
right?
5:33
SPEAKER_01: And they have a plan, you said.
5:38
SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
5:38
SPEAKER_01: and when people have got a plan,
5:40
SPEAKER_01: I think people feel a bit better,
5:41
SPEAKER_01: even if it's going to be really difficult.
5:43
SPEAKER_01: At least that's the vibe I got from the show.
5:45
SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you've got any positives or...
5:50
I think I saw from some people a sense of disappointment or
5:54
frustration where
5:55
SPEAKER_02: they're at,
5:56
SPEAKER_02: worry from some.
5:57
SPEAKER_02: I was hearing,
5:58
I was speaking to one PR person who they're talking about their
6:02
clients kind of
6:03
SPEAKER_02: losing funding and high stress amongst those.
6:06
And then I spoke to somebody at a publisher and they said
6:10
they're doing great
6:11
because they had a recent hit and they feel flush with cash and
6:16
things are going well.
6:17
SPEAKER_02: When I was at DICE,
6:19
SPEAKER_02: another games industry convention,
6:20
SPEAKER_02: right,
6:22
SPEAKER_02: back in February,
6:23
I was talking to somebody who said that they felt like the
6:26
industry was at a stage
6:27
SPEAKER_02: where there's very clear winners and losers,
6:30
SPEAKER_02: and that might not be what many people in the industry think of,
6:34
that a lot of people feel like kind of everybody's got to be up
6:38
or everybody's got
6:38
SPEAKER_02: to be down,
6:39
SPEAKER_02: and they feel a little bit of maybe what you were describing,
6:41
SPEAKER_02: a collective sense of we're all succeeding or,
6:44
SPEAKER_02: oh,
6:44
SPEAKER_02: no,
6:45
SPEAKER_02: they're struggling,
6:45
SPEAKER_02: so we're all struggling.
6:46
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
6:47
SPEAKER_02: And maybe it sounds more mercenary.
6:49
SPEAKER_02: I don't think this person meant to sound cruel or heartless.
6:53
SPEAKER_02: But they were just saying,
6:54
SPEAKER_02: look,
6:54
the games industry of 2025 is one where you're going to have
6:58
winners and you're
6:58
SPEAKER_02: going to have losers.
6:59
And it's possible to be succeeding or thriving even when
7:02
somebody else is struggling.
7:05
SPEAKER_02: That was technically the case all along.
7:08
SPEAKER_02: But they felt like that was a realization that...
7:11
SPEAKER_02: maybe more people would need to come around to.
7:14
SPEAKER_02: And it sounds like maybe that's part of the reality of it.
7:17
SPEAKER_02: One more point on that is that I was in the Yerba Buena Park.
7:21
SPEAKER_02: For those who haven't been to GDC, it's in San Francisco.
7:24
SPEAKER_02: It's set in the Moscone Convention Center,
7:26
SPEAKER_02: which has multiple buildings that all kind of surround this one big park.
7:29
SPEAKER_02: It's quite beautiful green space.
7:31
SPEAKER_02: And a lot of people will gather and mill about in there.
7:33
SPEAKER_02: Chris, I don't know if you go to the park very often.
7:36
SPEAKER_01: I've never been there before.
7:37
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
7:38
SPEAKER_01: This show, though, I was there several times.
7:40
SPEAKER_01: I actually did a bit of filming there.
7:43
You may have seen that there's this new video game union in the
7:46
United States that
7:47
SPEAKER_02: announced its formation during GDC,
7:50
SPEAKER_02: and they held a rally in there.
7:51
SPEAKER_02: And so their rally chanting about,
7:54
SPEAKER_02: you know,
7:54
SPEAKER_02: we're better together,
7:55
SPEAKER_02: weaker,
7:56
SPEAKER_02: divided,
7:56
SPEAKER_02: or however the chant went,
7:58
SPEAKER_02: was definitely a...
8:00
verbalization,
8:00
a vocalization of the frustration of the game worker,
8:03
right?
8:04
SPEAKER_02: And so that is,
8:06
whether you see that as hopeful or a sign of a kind of
8:08
challenge in the industry,
8:09
SPEAKER_02: that's one thing.
8:11
SPEAKER_02: Standing right nearby,
8:12
I was speaking with somebody from a Japanese game studio that's
8:16
been successful of late,
8:17
SPEAKER_02: and their sentiment was,
8:20
SPEAKER_02: hey,
8:20
SPEAKER_02: I don't really relate to that
8:23
Directly,
8:23
I understand it,
8:24
but in my area of the business,
8:26
things are doing really well.
8:28
And they weren't criticizing them,
8:30
but it was another manifestation of this.
8:32
SPEAKER_02: Some people may be down while other people are up.
8:35
I did a piece last year that got criticized by certain corners
8:39
of the industry.
8:39
SPEAKER_01: I'd spoken to a lot of investors and game bosses,
8:42
SPEAKER_01: and they basically said to me,
8:42
SPEAKER_01: we're looking at two years worth of pain.
8:45
SPEAKER_01: And when I did that piece,
8:48
there were some people hopeful that GDC 2024 would be a moment
8:51
that the industry
8:52
SPEAKER_01: sparks back into life again.
8:53
SPEAKER_01: And there was very much,
8:54
SPEAKER_01: I was unintentionally pouring cold water on that,
8:57
SPEAKER_01: but it turned out to be quite true.
8:59
SPEAKER_01: But even in that piece, I was saying what other people were saying.
9:02
SPEAKER_01: was that it's not gonna go from it's really bad,
9:05
SPEAKER_01: everything's awful,
9:06
SPEAKER_01: to suddenly everything's amazing again.
9:08
SPEAKER_01: There is gonna be a journey to that point.
9:10
SPEAKER_01: And I don't ever think it's never going back to where we were before.
9:15
SPEAKER_01: But I do think we are seeing that.
9:16
SPEAKER_01: You're seeing a lot of positive stories amongst all the misery.
9:19
SPEAKER_01: And of course, the negative stories do go further.
9:21
SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, I think that's sort of what you're saying.
9:24
SPEAKER_01: GDC seemed quieter.
9:26
SPEAKER_01: I don't have any official figures out there.
9:28
SPEAKER_01: The expo certainly seemed quieter,
9:30
which isn't surprising to me because people have less money and
9:35
it's an expensive
9:35
SPEAKER_01: event to go to.
9:37
SPEAKER_01: I don't know how you felt about that.
9:40
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
9:40
SPEAKER_02: In terms of attendees,
9:41
SPEAKER_02: you know,
9:41
I ran into students who are often able to go there based on
9:44
their schools,
9:45
SPEAKER_02: able to send them.
9:46
Although I imagine I don't know if the school pays for them or
9:48
how that works,
9:49
SPEAKER_02: but I ran into students and others,
9:50
SPEAKER_02: you know,
9:51
SPEAKER_02: media folks like ourselves who don't necessarily have to have to pay.
9:54
SPEAKER_02: I'm on a, you know, I get in there for free as press.
9:58
SPEAKER_02: But it's over $1,000, I believe, to go for a lot of people.
10:01
SPEAKER_02: There's different tiers of passes.
10:03
SPEAKER_02: But even just the show floor.
10:06
I was stunned when I went down the big escalators in Moscone
10:10
North and then looked
10:11
SPEAKER_02: over at what I expected to see.
10:13
SPEAKER_02: Yay.
10:14
SPEAKER_02: show floor packed with booths,
10:16
as it has been every year that I can ever remember going to GDC
10:19
for more than 10 GDCs.
10:22
SPEAKER_02: And instead, much smaller footprint in terms of booths.
10:26
And you got to think that's one of the moneymakers for GDC to
10:29
be able to rent out floor space.
10:31
SPEAKER_02: And Epic wasn't there.
10:33
SPEAKER_02: Unity wasn't there.
10:35
SPEAKER_02: There were some big players that I'm used to seeing.
10:37
SPEAKER_01: I didn't see them.
10:40
is union costs in the us you don't get this in europe union
10:42
costs us are huge and
10:45
it really does it's ultimately one of the things that killed e3
10:48
i and the last i
10:49
worked i didn't say worked on i've sort of connected to that
10:52
last cc it never
10:52
happened and somebody somebody on that team told me it was
10:56
cheaper to book space at
10:58
e3 than it was to book space at the london show that we run
11:01
called egx it's
11:02
actually cheaper to book it but then when you throw in all the
11:05
additional costs it
11:06
SPEAKER_01: becomes
11:08
much much much more expensive and yeah and i would the trip i'd
11:11
be the same for the
11:12
moscone you know exola booked out basically a building and it
11:15
was cheaper to do
11:16
that than it was to have a booth on the show floor but i will
11:19
say this i think we
11:20
need to be careful of and i'm not saying so i think exola paid
11:23
you know sponsored
11:24
the event as well but um i think we have to be careful as an
11:27
industry not to leach
11:28
SPEAKER_01: off these events um all of us if we all do it um
11:32
event will go away and then you end up with with nothing and i
11:36
also you know i know
11:37
leeching what do you mean how do you mean leech what are we
11:39
talking about you had
11:40
it with you have it you remember when e3 you know and people
11:43
started putting on
11:44
things outside of the show ah right right i see what you mean
11:47
so they weren't going
11:48
on the show but they're down the road i see what you mean or
11:50
they were crossing the
11:51
hotel or whatever right right a couple of companies that's a
11:54
victim of a success
11:55
SPEAKER_01: thing big company that always happens at events
11:57
SPEAKER_01: But if everyone starts doing it,
11:58
SPEAKER_01: then the event itself dies and you end up with not the gravity,
12:02
SPEAKER_01: not the anchor that actually puts everyone in that space.
12:06
SPEAKER_01: I'm a bit disappointed Epic wasn't there.
12:08
SPEAKER_01: I know they're doing their address in June, I think.
12:12
SPEAKER_02: And that's the thing is I don't think everybody was,
12:16
all the absences were explained by people counting their
12:19
dollars and pinching their pennies.
12:21
SPEAKER_02: I think some of it was shifting priorities.
12:23
And so Epic now wants to put more focus on their event in Orlando,
12:27
their Unreal Fest.
12:29
So why then do the state of Unreal at GDC,
12:31
even though they had been doing it there for years?
12:33
SPEAKER_02: And to your point,
12:35
SPEAKER_02: of people all bail.
12:36
SPEAKER_02: In the case of State of Unreal,
12:38
SPEAKER_02: that was actually at a peripheral event,
12:41
SPEAKER_02: but then they would also have a boost location.
12:45
Union costs may have been a factor in making it more expensive
12:47
for E3 or GDC,
12:49
SPEAKER_02: but most of these big companies that have these giant boosts,
12:52
SPEAKER_02: they're not exactly incapable.
12:54
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
12:54
SPEAKER_02: Stomach.
12:55
SPEAKER_02: Higher costs.
12:57
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
12:58
SPEAKER_01: I guess
13:00
SPEAKER_01: If Epic have moved purely to boost their other event up,
13:05
SPEAKER_01: I do feel that's not very thoughtful of the audience.
13:07
SPEAKER_01: And this is the point I always get with stuff like this.
13:12
SPEAKER_01: If people have less money this year and they might be choosing,
13:14
SPEAKER_01: do I go to the Unreal event or the GDC event?
13:16
SPEAKER_01: They probably ought to feel like they ought to go to both.
13:18
and that that's a traditional cost and i had it with e3 and
13:21
it's a very specific
13:22
thing to moan about but when xbox did that when xbox took over
13:25
the theater and you
13:27
had to the amount of times i was going out of e3 walk across
13:30
the road go through
13:31
security right to meet someone at xbox and go back out of that
13:34
building and go back
13:34
to security d3 i'm like just put the booth on in the show for
13:38
goodness sake it's uh
13:40
it's not you know it's not good for not good for the attendance
13:43
attendee experience
13:43
SPEAKER_01: anyway
13:44
SPEAKER_02: Right.
13:45
SPEAKER_02: But GDC was,
13:46
SPEAKER_02: you know,
13:46
I think it's important to say GDC is a place where tens of
13:48
thousands of game
13:49
SPEAKER_02: developers gather.
13:51
SPEAKER_02: And from my experience,
13:52
SPEAKER_02: talking to a lot of them,
13:54
SPEAKER_02: many of them may have been frustrated and have,
13:56
SPEAKER_02: I spoke to developers who were laid off,
13:57
SPEAKER_02: developers who were students who were
14:00
worried about their job prospects or not finding job prospects
14:03
as they've graduated.
14:05
SPEAKER_02: Nevertheless, a lot of them are really enthusiastic about making games.
14:09
And I was at an indie showcases where people were showing
14:12
really creative stuff.
14:13
You gather a lot of people who have a passion for making games
14:17
and you gather them
14:18
SPEAKER_02: in one place and you get a lot of inspiring
14:21
um just kind of talk and and and and you know there's just a
14:25
lot of incredible
14:26
things that people are talking about people are showing in that
14:29
sense even a gdc
14:33
during cloudier times is one that i think shines through to be
14:36
a little corny i
14:37
guess yeah well let's move on from gdc because actually i i was
14:41
reading a great
14:42
game file uh analysis of the brand new assassin's creed shadows
14:46
which launched uh
14:46
SPEAKER_01: uh
14:48
SPEAKER_01: last week.
14:48
SPEAKER_01: I haven't played the game, but you loved it, didn't you, Stephen?
14:52
SPEAKER_01: Yes, yes.
14:54
SPEAKER_02: Love is a strong word beyond my family.
14:58
SPEAKER_02: I don't know how much I truly want to use it,
15:00
SPEAKER_02: but I did say it was astounding in the headlines,
15:05
SPEAKER_02: so thank you for the comments.
15:06
SPEAKER_02: I've played 51 hours at this point.
15:08
SPEAKER_02: That means four hours since I wrote in my review that I played 47.
15:12
SPEAKER_02: It's impressive.
15:13
SPEAKER_02: I'm a sucker for Assassin's Creed, though.
15:14
I like the whole phenomenon of them transporting you to some
15:17
other time and place in history.
15:19
And I like how they stitch it all together with this weird
15:22
sci-fi idea that you're
15:23
SPEAKER_02: in these machines,
15:24
SPEAKER_02: you know,
15:24
SPEAKER_02: taking you back into these into these places.
15:27
SPEAKER_01: But yeah, quite fun.
15:28
SPEAKER_01: Well, it's a really crucial launch for Ubisoft.
15:31
SPEAKER_01: Let's not undersell it.
15:34
They're already dealing with difficult costs of making games
15:38
for them is getting so
15:39
SPEAKER_01: much higher because they have so many staff.
15:42
SPEAKER_01: But last year,
15:43
SPEAKER_01: They really came off a really rough year.
15:45
They launched multiple titles,
15:47
but I'm just thinking,
15:47
top of my head,
15:49
Skull and Bones.
15:50
SPEAKER_01: I don't think people were expecting that to be a big hit, and it wasn't.
15:54
SPEAKER_01: X Defiant started strongly,
15:56
but I think a load of those people that rushed in day one were
15:59
Call of Duty players
16:00
SPEAKER_01: and ended up going back to Call of Duty.
16:01
SPEAKER_01: So that ultimately fell away too.
16:03
SPEAKER_01: And the biggest one for me was Star Wars Outlaws.
16:06
SPEAKER_01: which when it was first revealed at Summer Game Fest 2023,
16:10
SPEAKER_01: or at least when it was shown there,
16:12
SPEAKER_01: the buzz around it was extremely high.
16:15
SPEAKER_01: And it was coming out with,
16:16
SPEAKER_01: you know,
16:17
SPEAKER_01: the biggest traffic drivers,
16:18
SPEAKER_01: the biggest social media discussion was around that game.
16:20
Over the course of the following year,
16:22
that excitement seemed to fade away.
16:24
SPEAKER_01: And although the game, I don't think the game was bad.
16:26
SPEAKER_01: I haven't played it.
16:26
SPEAKER_01: I just looked at the reviews.
16:28
SPEAKER_01: It missed quite dramatically.
16:31
SPEAKER_01: That prompted Ubisoft to delay Assassin's Creed Shadows.
16:36
SPEAKER_01: And they moved it to February initially and then to March.
16:38
SPEAKER_01: Assassin's Creed is their big killer IP.
16:40
SPEAKER_01: So its success is crucial at this point.
16:45
SPEAKER_01: There's lots of discussions around what they're going to do.
16:46
SPEAKER_01: They're already closing studios.
16:47
SPEAKER_01: They're cutting things.
16:48
SPEAKER_01: There's talks of Tencent money floating around for them.
16:51
SPEAKER_01: But a lot is hinging on Assassin's Creed Shadows.
16:55
SPEAKER_01: And the early data,
16:56
SPEAKER_01: because Monday,
16:57
SPEAKER_01: the only game came out last week,
16:58
SPEAKER_01: is actually quite promising.
16:59
SPEAKER_01: So Ubisoft have shared 2 million players.
17:02
SPEAKER_01: Ampere Analysis has just sent me an update.
17:05
SPEAKER_01: Their estimate is 2.7 million players.
17:08
so that's that's pretty strong i mean i've got the uk data for
17:11
physical that the
17:12
reason why people have a go at me a lot by stephen for saying
17:15
why are you obsessed
17:15
with uk physical game sales it's not that it's just that data
17:18
comes in first it's a
17:19
small island yeah well we are oddly as a small but it's quite
17:23
reflective um because
17:25
SPEAKER_01: of the popularity of consoles in this space and it's you know but um
17:31
it's because the UK physical data comes in first it's the first
17:33
thing over the
17:34
lines it's the first thing it gets reported on so when I do
17:36
report on that European
17:37
digital data later on people are bored now they've moved on
17:40
I've given them the UK
17:41
you have a true shadows we do have it for shadows and it's
17:44
physical data this is
17:45
really really not indication in an indicator of um of anything
17:49
but actually it's
17:50
SPEAKER_01: it's it's pretty good so it's not Valhalla numbers
17:54
SPEAKER_01: It's about two-thirds down on Valhalla.
17:58
SPEAKER_01: But Valhalla launched a COVID period.
17:59
SPEAKER_01: It was a huge physical launch that game as well.
18:01
SPEAKER_01: It came out in November.
18:02
It's two-thirds of Valhalla or it's two-thirds down,
18:05
meaning it's one-third of Valhalla?
18:07
SPEAKER_01: It's one-third.
18:09
SPEAKER_01: Oh, okay.
18:10
SPEAKER_01: But it's physical sales.
18:11
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, physical.
18:12
SPEAKER_01: Who buys physical anymore anyway?
18:14
SPEAKER_01: But if you compare it to last year's Star Wars Outlaws,
18:16
SPEAKER_01: Star Wars Outlaws Shadows sold more in three days,
18:20
SPEAKER_01: because it's the first three days of sales,
18:22
SPEAKER_01: than Star Wars Outlaws sold in three months.
18:26
SPEAKER_01: UK physical cells.
18:27
SPEAKER_01: So compared to more recent data,
18:30
SPEAKER_01: it's similar to Mirage's numbers,
18:32
SPEAKER_01: which I know Mirage was more of a spin-off game,
18:34
SPEAKER_01: but in terms of revenue,
18:35
SPEAKER_01: it's much,
18:35
SPEAKER_01: much higher.
18:35
SPEAKER_01: You need to remember the cost is significantly strong.
18:39
SPEAKER_02: In the States, right, Mirage was 50, I believe, and Shadows is 70.
18:45
SPEAKER_02: Notice the metric players, right?
18:47
They're not talking about copies sold because everybody these
18:50
days has some other
18:51
SPEAKER_02: way they offer games other than paying for them directly.
18:54
SPEAKER_02: So part of the...
18:55
SPEAKER_02: story for Ubisoft for Assassin's Creed Shadows is Ubisoft Plus.
19:00
They have,
19:00
some people might not even realize this,
19:02
their own subscription service.
19:04
And if you spend $18 US a month,
19:07
you get access to their full premium releases.
19:10
SPEAKER_02: So they're probably using the
19:12
phrasing of players reached rather than copies sold because
19:17
they're including that.
19:18
SPEAKER_02: It's a good deal if they are prolific enough to make.
19:22
I think it's a good deal if you're going to buy more than two
19:25
Ubisoft games a year.
19:27
SPEAKER_02: Ubisoft's challenge currently,
19:29
SPEAKER_02: as you alluded to earlier,
19:31
SPEAKER_02: is whether they can make more than two games worth getting a year.
19:35
SPEAKER_02: And so that's got to be bundled into it.
19:38
SPEAKER_02: And who knows what percentage that is.
19:40
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I wouldn't imagine it's too high, but then maybe I'm wrong.
19:43
It's interesting with Ubisoft,
19:44
that process,
19:45
because you can subscribe for a month.
19:48
SPEAKER_01: So you can rent the game, effectively, if that's what you want to do.
19:51
SPEAKER_01: And Ubisoft are kind of OK with it.
19:52
There was a stat they revealed last year when I spoke to them
19:54
that one in 10 of the
19:55
people that do that are people that have never played a game in
19:58
the franchise before.
19:59
SPEAKER_01: So it does unlock new players for them, having that option.
20:03
SPEAKER_01: But yeah, you're right.
20:04
SPEAKER_01: It's part of that.
20:07
SPEAKER_01: I keep saying Uplay, it's not.
20:08
SPEAKER_01: It's Ubisoft Plus, isn't it?
20:10
SPEAKER_01: Ubisoft Pro?
20:11
SPEAKER_02: Ubisoft Connect, Uplay.
20:13
SPEAKER_02: I think there's other ones.
20:14
SPEAKER_02: It does get a bit confusing.
20:16
They're also just funny in terms of how they talk about their
20:19
performance of their games.
20:20
SPEAKER_02: When Valhalla came out,
20:22
It was like,
20:22
you know,
20:23
in math class,
20:24
they have like word problems and everything.
20:25
SPEAKER_02: So I'd pulled this up.
20:26
SPEAKER_02: This was the press release from November 12th, 2020.
20:29
Ubisoft's Assassin's Creed Valhalla delivers massive day one
20:32
player engagement.
20:33
SPEAKER_02: So you expect to get some numbers in here.
20:35
SPEAKER_02: And here we go.
20:36
SPEAKER_02: Today,
20:36
Ubisoft announced exceptional player activity for Assassin's
20:39
Creed Valhalla,
20:40
SPEAKER_02: blah,
20:40
SPEAKER_02: blah,
20:40
SPEAKER_02: blah.
20:40
SPEAKER_02: And here we go.
20:41
SPEAKER_02: Here's a big stat.
20:42
SPEAKER_02: You ready?
20:42
The number of active players on launch day for Assassin's Creed
20:46
Valhalla doubled dramatically.
20:47
SPEAKER_02: that of Assassin's Creed Odyssey,
20:49
a trend that is expected to continue as sales of the new
20:52
generation of consoles increase.
20:55
SPEAKER_02: No actual number.
20:56
SPEAKER_02: This is the kind of creative non-hype hype where we don't,
21:02
SPEAKER_02: non-specific hype,
21:02
SPEAKER_02: I guess,
21:03
SPEAKER_02: that game companies have been specializing in for some time.
21:06
So you obfuscate the numbers,
21:08
you try to find some relative comparison,
21:10
and who knows?
21:10
You can always find something to compare your new game to your
21:14
old game to and make
21:15
SPEAKER_01: it sound great.
21:16
SPEAKER_01: And obviously,
21:16
SPEAKER_01: it did a billion dollars eventually,
21:18
SPEAKER_01: which is obviously pretty significant numbers.
21:21
SPEAKER_01: My looking at it,
21:22
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
21:22
SPEAKER_01: obviously,
21:22
SPEAKER_01: I've only got physical data,
21:23
SPEAKER_01: but Ampere's analysis,
21:24
SPEAKER_01: Ubisoft's own releases,
21:26
SPEAKER_01: I think this is probably okay.
21:29
SPEAKER_01: Is that enough?
21:30
SPEAKER_01: That's the question.
21:30
So,
21:31
you know,
21:32
looking at it,
21:32
it seems to be in line with most Assassin's Creed games.
21:34
SPEAKER_01: Assassin's Creed is a big hit.
21:36
I think,
21:36
oddly,
21:37
the metric that I'm most impressed by is the Steam reviews,
21:40
which are...
21:41
SPEAKER_01: Positive, very positive, I think, if I read that.
21:43
SPEAKER_01: And there was,
21:45
SPEAKER_01: let's be honest,
21:45
one of the concerns around this game wasn't just the fact that
21:47
the previous Ubisoft
21:49
SPEAKER_01: titles last year did so well.
21:50
SPEAKER_01: There was an awful lot of negativity around the game,
21:52
which I actually never quite understood because every time I
21:54
saw the game,
21:54
SPEAKER_01: I thought it looked amazing.
21:55
SPEAKER_01: But obviously there was a bit, you know,
21:57
SPEAKER_01: By negativity, do you mean a hate campaign perhaps?
22:00
SPEAKER_01: Yes, I do mean that.
22:01
SPEAKER_01: I mean a confusing hate campaign against the game.
22:03
But the thing is,
22:04
that stuff can really create an element of toxicity around Atari.
22:09
SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
22:10
I think Ubisoft perhaps maybe gave it a bit of attention,
22:13
and they shouldn't have done.
22:17
uh i'm looking at the numbers the numbers this game monday
22:19
things can change but i
22:20
think these are pretty good numbers um in the uk physical sales
22:24
is actually the
22:24
biggest launch of the year ahead of monster hunter wilds so
22:28
it's it's obviously
22:29
again when we factor in the wider figures um um uh it certainly
22:33
hasn't done a star
22:34
wars outlaws it hasn't been um a big spectacular miss i think
22:38
selling millions of
22:38
SPEAKER_01: units in this market is really difficult
22:42
SPEAKER_02: Right.
22:43
I think the big question mark around Star Wars Outlaws is that
22:45
there is a number of
22:46
SPEAKER_02: things that might have been the reason for its poor sales performance.
22:50
SPEAKER_02: One is that there was a negative campaign,
22:53
SPEAKER_02: a social media vibe and buzz around it,
22:55
SPEAKER_02: hate campaign,
22:56
SPEAKER_02: if you want to call it.
22:58
questions of whether the lead character was attractive enough
23:00
and other ridiculous
23:01
SPEAKER_02: things like that.
23:02
But it also was a game that had a very rough first three hours
23:05
of gameplay,
23:06
SPEAKER_02: required stealth that was instant fail,
23:08
SPEAKER_02: that put off a lot of reviewers.
23:10
So there was a lot of negativity within the reviews,
23:13
more lukewarm review scores.
23:15
SPEAKER_02: And then Star Wars itself is a very divisive...
23:20
SPEAKER_02: Whereas I think even when the game was announced,
23:23
SPEAKER_02: you would not have expected Star Wars to be as controversial a topic.
23:29
SPEAKER_02: You would have thought, okay, this is a license to print money.
23:32
SPEAKER_02: Ubisoft open world design expertise plus Star Wars.
23:35
SPEAKER_02: Surely that's going to do well.
23:36
SPEAKER_02: So you had this combination of...
23:38
SPEAKER_02: And any of those or any mix of those,
23:41
a proportion of those could be the reason that Star Wars
23:43
Outlaws struggled.
23:44
SPEAKER_02: I really enjoyed the game, but I also found the beginning quite rough.
23:47
By contrast,
23:48
the beginning of Assassin's Creed Shadows is quite strong and
23:51
it carries through.
23:52
And while there are some reviewers who point out some issues
23:54
with maybe the game
23:55
SPEAKER_02: goes on a bit too long,
23:56
SPEAKER_02: there's some activities in it that aren't as interesting.
23:59
SPEAKER_02: Some people question the dual protagonist design,
24:01
SPEAKER_02: whether both characters are interesting to play.
24:04
SPEAKER_02: But ultimately,
24:05
SPEAKER_02: it's a stronger,
24:06
SPEAKER_02: more consistent,
24:08
SPEAKER_02: better design game with more consistent quality throughout.
24:10
So they didn't have the drag of negative reviews,
24:15
you know,
24:16
possibly pulling them back.
24:17
SPEAKER_02: And so the campaign against how could there be a black samurai?
24:21
SPEAKER_02: Oh, this is DEI, the stuff that Elon Musk was pushing of DEI kills art.
24:26
SPEAKER_02: That stuff was pretty easily exposed as being nonsense,
24:31
as being irrelevant to the actual game because people started
24:35
playing it and the
24:36
SPEAKER_02: game immediately explains why there's a black man as a samurai in it.
24:40
SPEAKER_02: It makes sense.
24:41
SPEAKER_02: It's actually interesting.
24:42
And then the quality of the game sustained so that you have
24:44
people who are playing
24:45
SPEAKER_02: it and writing up Steam reviews or other user reviews.
24:49
SPEAKER_02: I think just recognizing this is a game we enjoy.
24:52
And so you have this kind of much more positive,
24:56
I think,
24:56
sentiment around it.
24:57
SPEAKER_02: But, I mean, Chris, you described it as it's doing okay.
25:01
SPEAKER_02: And I guess the question,
25:02
SPEAKER_02: right,
25:02
is whether an Assassin's Creed game that took this long to make
25:05
doing okay is...
25:07
really all won't give yourself home yeah i mean okay i do mean
25:10
okay by their
25:11
standards i mean i think it's okay i think it's brilliant by
25:13
most game standards
25:14
today like still there's many units i just think an assassin's
25:18
creed does carry
25:19
with it a certain level of a commercial expectation and it
25:22
certainly looks like
25:23
it's broadly broadly still hitting big big numbers it's just
25:26
whether or not numbers
25:27
SPEAKER_01: Are they big enough for Ubisoft?
25:29
SPEAKER_02: Right.
25:29
And their stock price,
25:31
I don't think their stock price moved up at all in any
25:35
significant way.
25:35
SPEAKER_01: It was pretty flat, even slightly down last week.
25:38
They probably need to hear a little bit from Ubisoft on their
25:41
take of it,
25:41
obviously.
25:42
SPEAKER_01: But we'll hopefully hear something soon.
25:44
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
25:44
the other thing about games like this is we live in a market
25:46
where there's so many
25:47
SPEAKER_01: games to play.
25:48
SPEAKER_01: And we've got so many things, not just games, TV shows, films to watch.
25:51
SPEAKER_01: We've got so much stuff competing over our time.
25:54
SPEAKER_01: A decent open world game like Star Wars just isn't
25:57
SPEAKER_01: Not even that is good enough.
26:00
SPEAKER_01: You need to do something to really entice people across.
26:02
SPEAKER_01: We're talking about Assassin's Creed,
26:04
SPEAKER_01: and I hope the game continues to do well,
26:05
SPEAKER_01: obviously,
26:06
SPEAKER_01: for the sake of Ubisoft,
26:07
but also because I hear it's brilliant and I have a code for it
26:10
and I'm looking
26:10
SPEAKER_01: forward to giving it a go.
26:12
SPEAKER_01: I'll go back to GDC,
26:14
SPEAKER_01: actually,
26:14
SPEAKER_01: because while I was at GDC,
26:15
SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you saw this,
26:16
SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you wrote about it,
26:17
SPEAKER_01: but the ESA announced,
26:19
SPEAKER_01: because Ubisoft's part of this,
26:19
SPEAKER_01: by the way,
26:20
SPEAKER_01: there's a connected tissue.
26:22
SPEAKER_01: The ESA announced the, let me make sure I get the name of this,
26:28
SPEAKER_01: I keep calling it the Accessibility Initiative, isn't it?
26:30
SPEAKER_01: The Accessible Games Initiative.
26:33
SPEAKER_01: There you go.
26:34
This is basically a series of tags that developers can use on
26:37
digital storefronts.
26:38
SPEAKER_01: They can possibly use it on boxes as well,
26:39
SPEAKER_01: if that's what they want to do,
26:41
SPEAKER_01: to inform gamers of the accessibility features in their games.
26:44
SPEAKER_01: And they cover audio,
26:47
SPEAKER_01: audio input devices, gameplay and visuals.
26:50
There's specific tags that can range from like,
26:52
this game has narrated menus.
26:54
SPEAKER_01: This game has large subtitles.
26:56
SPEAKER_01: You can control this game with a mouse, that kind of thing.
26:59
The goal of the whole initiative was simply to create a common
27:02
language because
27:03
apparently lots of people refer to these things as different
27:05
things internally and externally.
27:07
SPEAKER_01: to make it clear that,
27:08
SPEAKER_01: hey,
27:08
SPEAKER_01: when we're talking about narrating,
27:10
this is what we mean so that gamers understand what it is
27:13
they're getting so that
27:14
you don't have gamers with accessibility needs who have bought
27:17
a game thinking it
27:18
SPEAKER_01: satisfies those.
27:19
SPEAKER_01: And it doesn't equally,
27:20
people that are put off from buying a game thinking it doesn't
27:22
have certain features,
27:24
SPEAKER_01: and it does.
27:26
It was actually started off as a partnership between Google and
27:29
Microsoft and then
27:30
SPEAKER_01: very quickly Ubisoft,
27:31
SPEAKER_01: Nintendo,
27:31
SPEAKER_01: Sony,
27:32
SPEAKER_01: EA and the ESA jumped on board.
27:34
SPEAKER_01: That means this project was a collaboration between Sony,
27:37
SPEAKER_01: Nintendo and Microsoft,
27:39
SPEAKER_01: which and it was fun to see.
27:40
SPEAKER_01: Sony weren't on the stage,
27:41
but it's very fun to see Nintendo and Microsoft and those sort
27:43
of competitors on stage.
27:46
SPEAKER_01: at the event.
27:47
SPEAKER_01: And afterwards,
27:48
SPEAKER_01: I had a little chat with Ubisoft's director of accessibility,
27:53
SPEAKER_01: David Tisserand,
27:54
SPEAKER_01: who I've worked with them before.
27:56
SPEAKER_01: Ubisoft's actually quite really good with this stuff.
27:57
SPEAKER_01: Chris, do we have a clip?
28:00
SPEAKER_01: We have a clip.
28:00
SPEAKER_01: Do you want to see the clip?
28:02
SPEAKER_00: We had this common goal that we all, absolutely all believed in 100%.
28:08
SPEAKER_00: So whatever,
28:10
SPEAKER_00: you know,
28:11
differences or different opinions or different ways to look at
28:15
the problem,
28:15
SPEAKER_00: different perspective,
28:16
SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
28:17
SPEAKER_00: could come up in the conversation.
28:19
We always went back to those initial meetings where we created
28:23
the visions,
28:23
SPEAKER_00: we created what we want to achieve,
28:25
SPEAKER_00: how we want to achieve it,
28:26
SPEAKER_00: et cetera.
28:27
SPEAKER_00: So, of course, it was five years of work, right?
28:32
SPEAKER_00: So it's not like, you know, it didn't happen overnight.
28:34
SPEAKER_00: So,
28:34
SPEAKER_00: of course,
28:35
SPEAKER_00: through that,
28:35
SPEAKER_00: we had to be flexible,
28:37
SPEAKER_00: to be understanding to the others,
28:41
SPEAKER_00: to take each perspective into account before making a decision.
28:45
SPEAKER_00: Hence, it took that long, right?
28:48
SPEAKER_00: But also that initiative,
28:49
SPEAKER_00: although it may not look like it at first glance,
28:53
SPEAKER_00: is really focused on the words we use,
28:58
SPEAKER_00: the criteria we use,
28:59
SPEAKER_00: etc.
29:00
SPEAKER_00: Everything is almost pixel perfect, as we would say in games, right?
29:03
So,
29:04
of course,
29:04
it needed a lot of discussion to make sure that everyone agreed,
29:07
right?
29:08
But as we said in the panel today,
29:10
I think we used those constraints to our advantage.
29:13
We knew that we had to succeed and therefore it really made
29:18
everyone be flexible,
29:22
SPEAKER_00: be understanding,
29:24
accept that sometimes maybe their opinion wouldn't be the one
29:29
that we would use in
29:31
SPEAKER_00: the end.
29:31
SPEAKER_00: And we all did that.
29:33
SPEAKER_00: Everyone was very, very collaborative during that effort.
29:37
um yes that was so what i was asking david there but it was
29:40
like working with um
29:41
all of the uh the various different um uh parties in it and but
29:45
it took five years
29:46
but it was it was there was a uh a determination there the one
29:50
thing from that um i
29:51
don't know if you've got any views on this stephen but the one
29:52
thing from this that
29:53
SPEAKER_01: i i took away from it was it's a very it's a us event project it's it's
29:56
SPEAKER_01: through the ESA.
29:58
SPEAKER_01: I'd like to see this go global.
29:59
SPEAKER_01: I think that would be wonderful.
30:00
SPEAKER_01: I get it,
30:01
SPEAKER_01: global,
30:02
SPEAKER_01: different countries have different rules and regulations,
30:03
SPEAKER_01: but work with the local trade bodies there.
30:05
SPEAKER_01: I hope the ESA will do that so it's not just for US storefronts.
30:10
I'll just say I think it's really great that whether it was a
30:13
decade ago or at some
30:14
point it seems like there was a collective understanding that
30:17
took root within the
30:18
games industry as well as in just kind of video game culture
30:22
that it is an ultimate
30:23
social good and it is a good overall for more people to be able
30:27
to play video games
30:28
and for people to not kind of cut that off at oh you can't hear
30:32
so games aren't for
30:33
SPEAKER_02: you you can't see games aren't for you you don't have
30:37
SPEAKER_02: the same ability to manipulate buttons with your hands or your fingers,
30:40
SPEAKER_02: then games just aren't for you.
30:42
SPEAKER_02: And instead,
30:43
SPEAKER_02: there's been a whole lot of effort by the industry,
30:45
by advocates who really need to be celebrated for pushing this
30:48
to the fore to say,
30:50
SPEAKER_02: no,
30:51
games should be able to be playable no matter what limitations
30:54
you might face in life.
30:55
SPEAKER_02: And I think that's a really good thing.
30:56
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
30:58
SPEAKER_01: I'm conscious we're running,
30:59
SPEAKER_01: I've not even got to the main topic yet,
31:01
but I'll quickly run through one last topic because I think
31:03
we'll be talking about
31:04
SPEAKER_01: this on various shows going forward.
31:05
SPEAKER_01: And it's the situation with the tariffs in the US.
31:10
SPEAKER_01: It's a big topic at the moment going on.
31:12
SPEAKER_01: There was,
31:12
SPEAKER_01: I spoke to,
31:13
SPEAKER_01: interestingly,
31:13
SPEAKER_01: there wasn't as many people,
31:14
SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you had this as even at GDC,
31:16
but there wasn't as many people talking to me about this as I
31:18
thought there would be.
31:20
But I did speak to a couple of people that were a little
31:23
anxious around it,
31:23
SPEAKER_01: but the anxiety seemed to be around
31:26
primarily around what it might do to people's ability to spend
31:29
on luxury items such
31:30
SPEAKER_01: as video games.
31:32
SPEAKER_01: I did do a little bit of digging on the impact upon actual,
31:36
SPEAKER_01: what's it gonna do to the cost of making these games,
31:38
SPEAKER_01: distributing these games.
31:39
SPEAKER_01: And the response I got,
31:41
SPEAKER_01: this is a quote from somebody,
31:43
platform holders acted swiftly after the actions of the last
31:46
Trump administration.
31:48
SPEAKER_01: And as a result of that,
31:49
SPEAKER_01: what that person was talking about there is that they basically,
31:53
SPEAKER_01: a lot of games consoles are made in Vietnam.
31:56
SPEAKER_01: For instance,
31:56
there are obviously some chips and costs which might be
31:58
affected by this as raw
31:59
SPEAKER_01: material challenges.
32:01
SPEAKER_01: When it comes to games themselves,
32:02
SPEAKER_01: physical games,
32:03
SPEAKER_01: if you look at Nintendo Switch,
32:04
SPEAKER_01: which is the biggest physical games market in Nintendo games,
32:08
SPEAKER_01: those games are manufactured in Japan.
32:11
shipped over to whatever country they shipped over to,
32:14
and they boxed and packaged there.
32:15
SPEAKER_01: In the US,
32:16
SPEAKER_01: they tend to use,
32:17
SPEAKER_01: well,
32:17
SPEAKER_01: it varies from company to company,
32:18
SPEAKER_01: but they tend to use companies like,
32:19
SPEAKER_01: I always get it pronounced as Vantiva,
32:21
SPEAKER_01: used to be Technicolor.
32:23
SPEAKER_01: So in terms of actually the impact upon it,
32:25
SPEAKER_01: companies had,
32:26
SPEAKER_01: smart platform holders had a warning around this might happen before,
32:30
SPEAKER_01: and they did do things to mitigate the impact upon cost,
32:34
SPEAKER_01: impact upon their products.
32:36
SPEAKER_01: That doesn't mean there won't be any,
32:37
and obviously there is that concern around what it's gonna do
32:39
to the economy.
32:41
SPEAKER_01: But broadly speaking,
32:43
SPEAKER_01: when it came to that side of things,
32:44
SPEAKER_01: the industry is relatively prepared for this.
32:48
SPEAKER_01: But we will be talking about it more.
32:50
Well,
32:50
prepared as one can be,
32:51
you never know which country my president is going to attack.
32:56
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, suddenly Japan's next and Vietnam is next.
33:01
SPEAKER_02: And I think it'll be impactful when presumably...
33:03
SPEAKER_02: Actually,
33:04
SPEAKER_02: I don't even know if this will be the case,
33:05
SPEAKER_02: but you expect that next week when Nintendo does their Switch 2 showcase,
33:09
SPEAKER_02: they'll announce a launch date and a price?
33:11
SPEAKER_02: Because if they are to do that,
33:13
then I think people will begin to process more of the economic
33:18
impact of buying a
33:19
SPEAKER_02: Switch 2.
33:20
SPEAKER_02: And so to your point,
33:21
whether it's more of the tariffs impacting the economy and
33:24
people's spending patterns,
33:25
or we'll see Nintendo baking in sort of a tariff-proof price so
33:29
that it's not going
33:30
SPEAKER_02: to come to their bottom line.
33:31
SPEAKER_02: And when we see that price for the Switch 2,
33:33
which I think for many gamers would be their biggest gaming
33:36
purchase of the year,
33:38
that could alter the conversation or at least heighten this as
33:41
sort of an agenda
33:42
SPEAKER_01: item for a lot of people.
33:44
SPEAKER_01: You're assuming there,
33:44
SPEAKER_01: Stephen,
33:45
SPEAKER_01: that Rockstar is not going to charge $500 for Grand Theft Auto 6,
33:52
SPEAKER_01: which they probably could do.
33:53
SPEAKER_01: Let's segue then to our main topic.
33:56
This is not particularly timely,
33:58
but there is a big game coming out this year.
34:00
SPEAKER_01: You may have heard of it.
34:01
SPEAKER_01: It's called Grand Theft Auto 6.
34:03
SPEAKER_01: EA last month effectively said,
34:06
SPEAKER_01: without saying,
34:07
that if GTA 6 coming into the year may result in Battlefield
34:10
being pushed out of 2025,
34:11
their new Battlefield game coming out of 2025 and moving into a
34:14
different window.
34:16
So I asked around,
34:17
you know,
34:17
I assumed,
34:18
how's everyone else feeling about this?
34:19
SPEAKER_01: And the answer is exactly the same.
34:23
SPEAKER_01: This is a quote from probably one of the biggest...
34:24
I couldn't get them to go on the record about it because also
34:26
some of these games
34:27
SPEAKER_01: haven't been announced yet they're talking about.
34:28
SPEAKER_01: But this is one of the biggest...
34:30
games publishers in the world telling me this rockstar games
34:33
always suck a lot of
34:34
money and more importantly time out of the market we don't want
34:36
to be anywhere near
34:37
that we're working up multiple different plans for our title
34:40
another senior
34:41
executive from a different company even without gta it's
34:44
immense immensely
34:45
difficult to find free time for new games to shine time is the
34:48
real scarcity for us
34:49
SPEAKER_01: not money it's tough out there um then there was um
34:54
SPEAKER_01: I spoke to a European head of a AAA publisher.
34:56
SPEAKER_01: Again, it's all off the record.
34:58
SPEAKER_01: We don't want to launch just before or just after the game.
35:01
SPEAKER_01: If it arrives in late October,
35:03
SPEAKER_01: that means you either have to launch early,
35:04
which a lot of people seem to be doing with the recent glut of
35:06
summer release dates,
35:07
SPEAKER_01: or go later,
35:08
SPEAKER_01: putting you up against the Black Friday sales,
35:10
SPEAKER_01: or alternatively,
35:11
SPEAKER_01: just get out of the year entirely.
35:15
This is actually causing a bit of habit because they don't know
35:19
when Rockstar are
35:20
SPEAKER_01: going to launch.
35:22
SPEAKER_01: One of the contingencies they're having to draw up,
35:25
SPEAKER_01: this again,
35:26
SPEAKER_01: same European boss,
35:27
SPEAKER_01: if we move out of 2025,
35:29
SPEAKER_01: what if Rockstar do too?
35:31
SPEAKER_01: Will we have to push our game up or will we have to delay further?
35:34
SPEAKER_01: It's proven to be very stressful.
35:37
SPEAKER_01: Now,
35:38
SPEAKER_01: I don't think any of this is,
35:38
SPEAKER_01: this doesn't surprise me that everyone's looking to move out of the game,
35:42
SPEAKER_01: but it isn't just,
35:44
SPEAKER_01: It isn't just game launches.
35:45
SPEAKER_01: So if you go to a bunch of live service game developers,
35:48
SPEAKER_01: and I got quotes from two,
35:50
SPEAKER_01: again,
35:50
SPEAKER_01: off the record,
35:51
quotes from two live service game developers of top 10 live
35:55
service games.
35:57
GTA 6 is basically a huge meteor,
35:59
and we will stay clear of the blast zone.
36:00
SPEAKER_01: We will nudge our updates back or forward three weeks to avoid it.
36:04
SPEAKER_01: Of course, the problem is everyone is going to do the same.
36:06
So three to four weeks before or after GTA 6,
36:08
you're going to get a load of live service.
36:10
games they're talking about here dropping content in what they
36:13
believe will be the
36:13
safe zone um it's obviously it's going to get a little it's
36:17
obviously going to get
36:18
a little bit messy um um so as part of this i decided actually
36:22
are they right to
36:23
delay the game is is is this is this really the smartest move
36:26
and well i mean the
36:28
answer was yes the uh the last time new grand theft auto was
36:32
released it was back
36:33
in september 2020 2013 which means if you were 18 when you
36:36
bought gta 5 you're now 30.
36:38
SPEAKER_01: um
36:41
SPEAKER_01: 50% of all game revenue made during that month,
36:44
SPEAKER_01: so September 2023 in the US,
36:45
SPEAKER_01: was for GTA V.
36:47
SPEAKER_01: That's Sakana data or MPD as they were called at the time.
36:50
SPEAKER_01: That's despite the fact the game only arrived halfway through the month.
36:52
SPEAKER_01: Now, in the UK, I can get the weekly figures.
36:54
So in the UK,
36:55
94% of all revenue made on video games the week GTA V came out
36:59
was on GTA V.
37:01
The following week,
37:02
FIFA launched,
37:03
and so it's the big launch three-week period anyway.
37:05
SPEAKER_01: FIFA's huge in the UK.
37:06
SPEAKER_01: It's normally number one.
37:08
SPEAKER_01: But over the course of those three weeks,
37:11
SPEAKER_01: what they call the blast zone,
37:14
SPEAKER_01: Grand Theft Auto V account for two-thirds of all games sold in the UK.
37:17
SPEAKER_01: So...
37:19
SPEAKER_01: you're looking at an absolutely ginormous law.
37:22
SPEAKER_01: And so that was GTA 5.
37:24
SPEAKER_01: We weren't waiting that long for GTA 5 compared to GTA 4.
37:27
SPEAKER_01: So you can see from pure numbers that there is going to be a big scary,
37:34
SPEAKER_01: it's going to cause a big bit of a moment in the market.
37:38
SPEAKER_02: Yes.
37:39
And as you noted,
37:41
one of the big questions is,
37:43
does Rockstar actually shift GTA 6 in late 2025?
37:47
So I mentioned that I was at the DICE convention in February
37:51
back in Las Vegas.
37:52
SPEAKER_02: And so while the DICE convention was happening,
37:55
Sony aired its state of play showcase for a lot of the games
37:58
that were going to be
37:59
SPEAKER_02: released first and third party on PlayStation through the year.
38:02
And there was quite the buzz at DICE amongst these industry
38:05
folks who were there
38:06
when the event aired because the Borderlands 4 release date was
38:11
announced for
38:11
SPEAKER_02: December 23rd.
38:13
SPEAKER_02: Borderlands 4 published by the same publisher as Grand Theft Auto 6.
38:17
SPEAKER_02: That's Take-Two Interactive.
38:19
SPEAKER_02: And this is the first and only mega game,
38:21
SPEAKER_02: as far as I know,
38:21
that has been given a release date for the final several months
38:25
of the year.
38:26
SPEAKER_02: And so people took away from that.
38:28
Well,
38:28
Take-Two isn't going to release their big games on top of each other.
38:31
SPEAKER_02: So if September 23rd is Borderlands 4,
38:34
then the two or three weeks in front of it or behind it are
38:37
going to be safe.
38:38
You're not going to have to contend with GTA 6 during those weeks,
38:42
even September 23rd itself.
38:43
Clearly not the GTA 6 release because they're not going to put
38:46
it out the same day,
38:47
SPEAKER_02: both Borderlands and GTA.
38:49
So there was this feeling of clarity or enthusiasm that,
38:52
hey,
38:52
at least we know a little bit.
38:54
SPEAKER_02: We've decoded the...
38:55
SPEAKER_02: It was a little bit,
38:56
SPEAKER_02: I guess,
38:57
done a little bit of rise of the Golden Idol logical deduction
38:59
there to figure out
39:01
SPEAKER_02: what the GTA 6 launch will happen.
39:04
SPEAKER_01: You assume 2K at least have an idea.
39:06
SPEAKER_01: But I think if that does mean it's three weeks later,
39:09
SPEAKER_01: if it does put it at the end of October,
39:10
SPEAKER_01: that's a really tough...
39:11
window to launch in because it means basically wipes out
39:14
october um and then you
39:16
are and then the time it comes feels safe to perhaps drop
39:18
against gta you're into
39:19
black friday sales so you're in a sort of um and that's
39:22
assuming that it is three
39:23
weeks before we are there's we are heavily into the speculation
39:26
territory one of
39:27
the other interesting things about i do think if it does delay
39:29
out of 2026 which by
39:30
the way everyone at 2025 i think everyone is you know that's
39:34
not what take to us
39:35
saying is going to happen i think the only company that really
39:37
benefits from it
39:38
SPEAKER_01: will possibly nintendo
39:40
SPEAKER_01: because they obviously are going to be going hard this Christmas,
39:44
SPEAKER_01: this Q4,
39:44
SPEAKER_01: this holiday season,
39:45
SPEAKER_01: because of their hardware.
39:47
SPEAKER_01: And the idea that GTA doesn't compete with Nintendo, I think is not true.
39:53
SPEAKER_01: I think there will be people,
39:54
SPEAKER_01: you know,
39:54
SPEAKER_01: you need to remember that when I was a kid and I used to go,
39:56
SPEAKER_01: mum,
39:57
SPEAKER_01: I want a new games console,
39:58
SPEAKER_01: and she would buy me one that she thought,
39:59
SPEAKER_01: you know,
39:59
SPEAKER_01: she might get me a Nintendo.
40:01
SPEAKER_01: But nowadays, the parents also want the games console.
40:05
SPEAKER_01: So when you're talking about people who are spending that money,
40:09
SPEAKER_01: PlayStation 5, it's going to be a big moment for PlayStation 5, this.
40:11
SPEAKER_01: And Xbox as well, but mainly PlayStation 5.
40:14
SPEAKER_01: And so it is a...
40:17
SPEAKER_01: Therefore,
40:17
you'll see Nintendo Switch launch in a relatively quiet point
40:20
for the PlayStation
40:21
SPEAKER_01: and Xbox,
40:22
SPEAKER_01: whereas Switch 2 will launch at a particularly noisy point.
40:24
SPEAKER_01: So I think that's what it's the first holiday will be.
40:26
SPEAKER_02: Right.
40:28
SPEAKER_02: How much does the perspective of Switch 2 game player...
40:32
SPEAKER_02: You said, yes, parents are going to want GTA 6 as well, possibly.
40:37
SPEAKER_02: But if there's any company that makes games that would be relatively
40:41
SPEAKER_02: non-overlapping with GTA 6,
40:44
SPEAKER_02: it would be Nintendo.
40:46
SPEAKER_02: And look...
40:48
There's another big game that came out in 2013 that has sold
40:51
tens of billions of copies,
40:53
SPEAKER_02: and that's Mario Kart 8,
40:54
SPEAKER_02: which has had an incredible lifespan.
40:57
SPEAKER_02: And unless Nintendo's doing something really strange,
41:00
SPEAKER_02: they've already teased the next Mario Kart,
41:02
SPEAKER_02: which I think is 10,
41:03
SPEAKER_02: not 9,
41:04
SPEAKER_02: because I think that Tor on mobile counts as 9.
41:06
SPEAKER_02: I could be wrong.
41:07
SPEAKER_01: I think Home Circuit counts as 10.
41:08
SPEAKER_01: I think you need to...
41:13
So whatever this new one will be,
41:15
likely will be a launch or launch window title.
41:18
SPEAKER_02: And so, you know, put GTA up against the new Mario Kart.
41:23
SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
41:24
SPEAKER_02: Those are all monsters.
41:26
We are assuming GTA isn't coming out on Switch 2,
41:30
which is a really fun thing.
41:32
SPEAKER_01: So I actually did look at overlapping data.
41:33
SPEAKER_01: You mentioned overlapping data there.
41:35
And it's actually quite difficult because the people that are
41:37
playing GTA today are
41:39
SPEAKER_01: actually online players,
41:40
SPEAKER_01: I think.
41:41
SPEAKER_01: So I can use Ampere data here.
41:42
SPEAKER_01: Again, I mentioned Ampere earlier there.
41:45
they've got some i can see throughout last year what percentage
41:49
of players played a
41:51
game who also played gta in the same month and but because it's
41:54
gta gta in 2024
41:56
they don't go bad data doesn't go back to 2013 annoyingly
41:59
because it's gta players
42:00
in 20 they're online players they're kind of different it
42:02
doesn't there's not
42:03
SPEAKER_01: character in the full gta audience so
42:06
Unsurprisingly,
42:07
the games that crossover most with GTA in 2024 were all live
42:10
service games.
42:10
SPEAKER_01: Roblox had an average 22% audience crossover, depending on the month.
42:15
EA Sports FC had about a 13% audience crossover in September
42:19
when that game launched.
42:21
When Call of Duty Black Ops 6 launched,
42:23
12.3% of Call of Duty players also played GTA.
42:26
SPEAKER_01: That's the high crossover numbers.
42:30
SPEAKER_01: So big action games, shooter games, sports games, mainstream games.
42:34
um lots of crossover the numbers are much much lower for single
42:37
player games just
42:38
3.1 percent of warhammer 40 000 space marine 2 players also
42:41
played gt online when
42:42
space marine 2 launched in september last year star wars
42:45
outlaws had a slightly
42:46
higher number 5.3 percent but generally speaking it's quite low
42:49
but again we're
42:50
talking about online players here you know i don't think that's
42:52
reflective of who
42:53
SPEAKER_01: might be buying gta 6 week one
42:55
SPEAKER_01: So the date is a little inconclusive there.
42:57
I did decide to look at the lower end to try to find a game
43:00
that had very little
43:01
SPEAKER_01: crossover with GTA.
43:02
SPEAKER_01: And the one I found was Metaphor Re Fantasia.
43:07
SPEAKER_01: 1.3% audience crossover.
43:08
SPEAKER_01: That's not just Japanese RPGs.
43:09
Japanese RPGs tend to be a little bit higher,
43:11
3%,
43:11
4% like Dragon's Dogma and Final Fantasy.
43:13
SPEAKER_01: But that game was just 1.3%.
43:15
there was also some 4x games i looked at the the release dates
43:19
were a bit muddy but
43:20
they also had quite low crossover some of the interestingly
43:23
some of the games that
43:24
had high i expected to have a low crossover like the bluey
43:26
video game um didn't
43:28
because it was in i think it was in game pass which was also
43:32
which grandpa thought
43:32
it was also in which meant there was actually quite a high
43:35
crossover there um so it
43:37
SPEAKER_01: was a bit it's a bit inconclusive but but
43:41
SPEAKER_01: The problem with,
43:42
SPEAKER_01: even if your game is like kids gaming,
43:44
SPEAKER_01: a proper kids game named a kid or proper nerdy or niche title,
43:49
SPEAKER_01: you're talking about getting coverage.
43:51
So I asked the sort of press engine that sort of sends out
43:55
press releases and codes
43:55
SPEAKER_01: on behalf of games publishers to give me some data about,
43:59
SPEAKER_01: I wanted to find out what do big games mean for media coverage?
44:02
So the firm gave us a ranking of the top 10 most covered games
44:07
during the launch
44:08
SPEAKER_01: weeks of Elden Ring,
44:09
SPEAKER_01: Starfield,
44:09
SPEAKER_01: and Pokemon Scarlet and Violet.
44:10
SPEAKER_01: I picked those three initially.
44:12
And those games all accounted for over 40% of all the published
44:16
articles just from
44:17
SPEAKER_01: those top 10 games.
44:18
SPEAKER_01: It didn't track every game.
44:19
in the case of zelda here's the kingdom that number was above
44:22
50 percent um now
44:25
obviously a lot of that's guys content but that is what if you
44:28
ever speak to the
44:28
media today i know we're in the media but we talked to big
44:31
publishers today they
44:32
refer to it as money boiling it or uh you know basically using
44:35
the data that's what
44:36
all the players are googling that's what they're all searching
44:38
um we're going and
44:40
that is what we need to be focusing all of our energies and
44:42
monies and freelance
44:43
SPEAKER_01: spend on um
44:44
SPEAKER_01: The reason why I even looked this up was I'm a fan of,
44:47
SPEAKER_01: there's pictures on the wall there,
44:49
SPEAKER_01: which is from Conker's Bad Third Day.
44:50
SPEAKER_01: It's one of my favorite games.
44:51
SPEAKER_01: And the creator of Conker's Bad Third Day,
44:52
SPEAKER_01: Conker's Bad Third Day,
44:53
a guy called Chris Siever called me up when he'd released a
44:56
game in 2018 called The
44:57
SPEAKER_01: Tale of Rusty Pup.
45:00
SPEAKER_01: Now, Rusty Pup came out and nobody covered it.
45:03
SPEAKER_01: Didn't get anywhere, didn't do anything.
45:04
SPEAKER_01: I didn't know about this game, and I like Conqueror's Bedford.
45:06
SPEAKER_01: How'd I miss that?
45:08
SPEAKER_01: It's quite a good game.
45:09
So he called me up and said,
45:10
I would like to do something on it,
45:11
please,
45:11
if you're up for it.
45:12
SPEAKER_01: And I said, I'd love to talk to you, Chris.
45:13
SPEAKER_01: That'd be great.
45:14
SPEAKER_01: I said, what went wrong?
45:15
SPEAKER_01: And he said, I released it next to Red Dead Redemption 2.
45:19
SPEAKER_01: Now,
45:19
SPEAKER_01: in his mind,
45:20
SPEAKER_01: not a publisher,
45:21
SPEAKER_01: his idea was,
45:22
let's put the game out there because that way we could be the
45:26
alternative game.
45:26
SPEAKER_01: If you're not interested in that, play our game instead.
45:28
SPEAKER_01: That was his thinking.
45:29
SPEAKER_01: But then he couldn't get anyone to cover it.
45:31
SPEAKER_01: They were all very busy covering Red Dead Redemption 2.
45:35
SPEAKER_01: So anyway,
45:36
SPEAKER_01: my concluding point,
45:37
SPEAKER_01: I guess,
45:37
SPEAKER_01: is that if you're going to release,
45:38
SPEAKER_01: even if you are gonna release a game that's completely different,
45:40
SPEAKER_01: you might find getting cut through share of voice,
45:42
SPEAKER_01: whatever term you wanna use to describe marketing and attention,
45:47
SPEAKER_01: you might struggle.
45:51
SPEAKER_01: If I'm gonna be a bit more positive around the impact of GTA,
45:54
SPEAKER_01: again,
45:55
SPEAKER_01: Ampere told me something that I thought was really interesting.
45:57
SPEAKER_01: Ampere tracked the stickiness of video games.
46:00
SPEAKER_01: And by that they mean,
46:02
SPEAKER_01: how often a player returns to a game in a given month.
46:06
So the average GTA 5 slash online player comes back to that
46:10
game four to five days a month.
46:12
SPEAKER_01: By comparison,
46:13
SPEAKER_01: the average Call of Duty player returns six to seven days a month,
46:16
SPEAKER_01: while Fortnite players are seven to eight days a month.
46:18
SPEAKER_01: If you go to MMOs, the number's much, much higher.
46:20
SPEAKER_01: Like the amount of people who come back to MMOs is a lot more frequent.
46:22
SPEAKER_01: Now that's the average player.
46:24
So actually stickiness,
46:25
Grand Theft Auto's on the lower end of the spectrum here.
46:28
SPEAKER_01: So you
46:29
SPEAKER_01: In terms of what that means,
46:30
SPEAKER_01: of course,
46:31
SPEAKER_01: we don't know what they're planning with GTA Online this year,
46:33
SPEAKER_01: if they're planning anything with GTA Online this year.
46:35
SPEAKER_01: But as a game,
46:35
SPEAKER_01: as a franchise,
46:36
players are willing to put that down more than perhaps they are
46:39
of other live
46:40
SPEAKER_01: service titles.
46:41
SPEAKER_01: So for all those players that are,
46:44
all those live service companies a bit worried about the impact
46:47
GTA might have on them,
46:48
SPEAKER_01: it does seem possible to be able to
46:50
SPEAKER_01: to pull those players back in time.
46:53
SPEAKER_01: But that's the one positive I'll say about the game.
46:56
There is opportunity from the perspective of other publishers
46:59
and developers.
46:59
SPEAKER_01: A few thoughts.
47:01
SPEAKER_02: One, I need to issue a correction.
47:02
SPEAKER_02: Mario Kart 8 came out in 2014, not 2013, so apologies.
47:07
SPEAKER_02: But likely these two franchises may clash.
47:10
SPEAKER_02: They clashed pretty close last time.
47:11
They might clash more directly this time,
47:13
so we'll see what happens with that.
47:18
SPEAKER_02: We're assuming a few things.
47:19
SPEAKER_02: One,
47:19
we're assuming that not only will this game be a cultural
47:22
phenomenon when it comes out,
47:23
SPEAKER_02: which is not in doubt,
47:25
SPEAKER_02: but that it will also resonate with players in a great way.
47:30
SPEAKER_02: It's hard to imagine
47:32
SPEAKER_02: The game being bad or being negatively reviewed,
47:35
SPEAKER_02: Rockstar is also very protective of,
47:38
SPEAKER_02: you know,
47:38
even just the review process and do all they can to make sure
47:41
that reviewers truly
47:43
SPEAKER_02: understand the quality of their game.
47:45
So it's hard to imagine a GTA 6 coming out with something less
47:48
than stellar review scores.
47:50
But this is also only the second Rockstar game developed since
47:55
GTA V back in 2013.
47:58
SPEAKER_02: Only Red Dead between that, unless I'm forgetting something.
48:01
And there's been a lot of changeover in terms of creative leadership,
48:05
in terms of...
48:08
SPEAKER_02: That's right.
48:09
SPEAKER_02: So some of the top people, the game may just have a different flavor.
48:12
SPEAKER_02: It might necessarily be worse,
48:14
SPEAKER_02: might even be better than the previous ones,
48:15
but it might have a different flavor to it that might resonate differently.
48:18
GTA V launched without the online component,
48:20
which came out a month or so afterward.
48:22
SPEAKER_02: In this case, GTA VI
48:25
SPEAKER_02: We don't know if it'll come out with its online component.
48:27
SPEAKER_02: And the thing that's really given GTA 5 legs has been the online,
48:32
SPEAKER_02: which has become a staple of Twitch streaming.
48:34
We also don't know the extent to which Rockstar will find
48:36
itself competing with itself.
48:38
This is something that Nintendo is actually facing as well in
48:41
that GTA 5 online is
48:44
SPEAKER_02: still widely streamed.
48:46
SPEAKER_02: We assume people will move to the next,
48:48
but Valve has run into these challenges in different times when
48:51
trying to move
48:51
SPEAKER_02: people from one version of Counter-Strike to the next.
48:54
SPEAKER_02: And it's not always a smooth transition.
48:55
Nintendo is going to face having a backwards compatible Switch
48:59
2 and whether or not
49:00
SPEAKER_02: they're going to be competing with themselves as well.
49:03
SPEAKER_02: And so there's a number of X factors in here,
49:07
SPEAKER_02: which don't necessarily suggest that GTA 6 will flop,
49:10
SPEAKER_02: but its launch may feel different than GTA 5's.
49:15
That may create other opportunities for competitors,
49:18
for counter-programming or what have you.
49:19
SPEAKER_02: Remains to be seen, I think.
49:21
SPEAKER_01: And interesting,
49:21
SPEAKER_01: you brought up Nintendo there,
49:23
SPEAKER_01: Breath of the Wild,
49:24
SPEAKER_01: they had a bit of that problem with Tears of the Kingdom,
49:26
because I think it wasn't long before Breath of the Wild sales
49:28
started outstripping
49:29
SPEAKER_01: Tears of the Kingdom again on a quarterly basis.
49:32
SPEAKER_01: Partly because,
49:33
SPEAKER_01: yes,
49:33
SPEAKER_01: Nintendo did have a very big success with Tears of the Kingdom,
49:36
but ultimately Breath of the Wild still became the staple
49:40
online shared game.
49:42
SPEAKER_01: The default.
49:43
SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
49:44
SPEAKER_01: I'm very conscious of the time.
49:45
SPEAKER_01: We are supposed to be trying to keep these short.
49:47
SPEAKER_01: I've not called it a microcast this time,
49:48
SPEAKER_01: so I wouldn't get quite so criticised every time we ran over.
49:51
SPEAKER_01: But obviously, I think people are probably right to run away from GTA.
49:55
SPEAKER_01: But you're right.
49:59
SPEAKER_01: You might move your game.
50:00
I remember talking to Remedy about Alan Wake 2 and about the
50:03
fact they launched
50:03
SPEAKER_01: during a busy period for Alan Wake 2.
50:04
SPEAKER_01: They launched next to Spider-Man and stuff like that.
50:06
SPEAKER_01: And they said to me,
50:09
SPEAKER_01: if we decided to push it into February,
50:11
SPEAKER_01: say,
50:12
SPEAKER_01: we'd have just gone up against Helldivers instead.
50:14
so there is who knows what's a safe uh there's nowhere to run
50:19
there's nowhere to
50:19
run well that is thank you stephen i really appreciate your
50:22
time and joining me on
50:23
the first ever games business game business show um i hope i
50:28
hope you'll rejoin us
50:29
in the future maybe we can talk about um other things in the uh
50:32
in the intro but
50:32
SPEAKER_01: yes thank you for joining us
50:34
SPEAKER_02: I would love to.
50:34
SPEAKER_02: Thank you for having me and congratulations.
50:37
You have made your own professional transition and I'm very
50:41
excited for everything
50:43
SPEAKER_02: that you're going to do at the game business.
50:45
I think you also gave people a great taste of it with the
50:47
analysis and the
50:48
SPEAKER_02: reporting that you shared during the show.
50:50
SPEAKER_02: So I'm really excited to see your version,
50:54
your own personal GTA 6 as your sequel comes out and everyone
50:58
runs from you.
51:00
SPEAKER_01: Oh, good.
51:01
SPEAKER_01: Well, I don't think they'll do that.
51:01
SPEAKER_01: But anyway, thank you.
51:02
SPEAKER_01: Thank you for the kind words.
51:05
SPEAKER_01: So again, for everyone listening, thank you for listening as well.
51:07
SPEAKER_01: The Game Business Show will be back later today,
51:09
SPEAKER_01: actually,
51:09
SPEAKER_01: and indeed later in the week with our feature shows.
51:12
And one of those feature shows will be a deep dive into the
51:14
state of video game
51:15
SPEAKER_01: investment you'll be able to hear about from game investors on Thursday.
51:19
SPEAKER_01: In terms of our next news analysis show,
51:20
that will take place on Thursday next week as we react to the
51:23
reveal of Nintendo
51:24
SPEAKER_01: Switch 2.
51:25
SPEAKER_01: And so to make sure you don't miss any of this,
51:27
SPEAKER_01: head to thegamebusiness.com,
51:29
SPEAKER_01: sign up to our emails,
51:30
read it there if that's how you like to do things like the old
51:33
fashioned way.
51:34
SPEAKER_01: Until next time, thank you for tuning in.
51:38
SPEAKER_03: I've talked to Roblox studios that are smaller,
51:40
younger teams that are like super happy with like how they're
51:42
monetizing and how
51:43
SPEAKER_03: they're able to support themselves.
51:45
SPEAKER_03: But on like a venture scale,
51:47
SPEAKER_03: you know,
51:47
SPEAKER_03: that's a different question than like,
51:48
SPEAKER_03: are you able to like make something that's a hit and,
51:51
SPEAKER_03: you know,
51:51
have fun and reinvest back into your studio and make more
51:54
content and stuff.
51:55
SPEAKER_03: But then it's like,
51:56
are you able to earn enough to kind of get either out of Roblox
51:59
or do something
52:00
that's really going to be like a big hit the way it would be on
52:02
like PC or console
52:03
SPEAKER_03: or something like that?
52:04
SPEAKER_03: That's still kind of a question mark.
52:06
SPEAKER_03: You know,
52:06
SPEAKER_03: there's a lot that's really interesting about it and exciting,
52:08
SPEAKER_03: but maybe not particularly from like a VC investable angle.