Latest / Drive with John Perlman / ENCA Mark data election polls

Transcript

ENCA Mark data election polls · Drive with John Perlman

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: You're with John Perlman on 702.
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: 18 past five, local government elections just over a week
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: away and just in time. A new election survey. It's
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: the work of ENCA and Mark Data. And there's some very,
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: very interesting numbers indeed. Let's go through at least some
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: of them and welcome to the show, Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman. Wayne,
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: a very good afternoon to you. I want to start
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: in Joburg. Your figures have the DA at 35, which
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: is higher than I think the News 24 poll had them.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: The ANC at 22, MK Party and EFF fairly close.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: MK Party 12.5, EFF 12. Action SA 10 and the
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Patriotic Alliance 3.7. Who gets to govern? I'm not sure
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: how you put coalitions together with those numbers. Good afternoon
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: to you.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Thank you, John. Correct. I think it's going to be.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Chaotic negotiations. Remember, you only.
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: Have 14 days once the results are tabled to form
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: those coalitions, so it doesn't leave a lot of time.
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: I think right now, if you were to take the
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: ENCA Mark Data poll, the scenarios on the table would
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: be Government of National Unity Light, i.e. the DA and
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: the ANC. Another option could be the same old, same old,
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: which would be the ANC, the EFF, Patriotic Alliance, Al-Jamaa,
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: and some other political parties. Another option, John, could be
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: the DA, the Freedom Front, Action SA, and the PA,
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  Speaker 3: but we know right now there's not a lot of
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: Christmas cards going between the DA and Action SA and
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: the DA and the PA.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't see how the ANC, and guide
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: me with the numbers, unless they... Do they have a
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: route to a coalition government without the MK party? The
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: numbers look very tight to me.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: It will be difficult.
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  Speaker 3: And that's the million-dollar question, is how will the ANC
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: approach Mkonto e Siswe after this election if they do
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: want to form a stable coalition without the Democratic Alliance?
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: Because the Democratic Alliance is, according to the polls, expected
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: to grow in this election. And a lot of those roots, John,
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: you're 100% correct, do go via Mkonto e Siswe, who
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: are expected to grow in this particular election. So that
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: is the million-dollar question. Is the ANC going to choose
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: to work with the DA or choose to work with
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: Mkonto S-Israel? If I look at the numbers quickly, John,
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: you are 100% correct.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: It's a very.
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: Unstable, unwieldy coalition because in Johannesburg, Mkonto S-Israel is on 13%.
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: If you take the DA's 35% and Umkonto, which is
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: where it's 13%, we know the Freedom Front are very
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: unlikely to go into coalition with the ANC if the
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: DA don't. So you're 100% right. In the city of Johannesburg,
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: it looks like an unwieldy solution.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: Let's go to Tswane, the DA, very similar again, according
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: to your poll, very similar to Joburg, 34%. I'll just
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: run through the next six parties. ANC 25, EFF 12,
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  Speaker 2: Action SA 11, Freedom Front Plus 8, MK Party 5,
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  Speaker 2: not as strong as in Joburg, and the Patriotic Alliance
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: with just 2%. Similar scenario and the same set of
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: questions with unclear answers.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Correct.
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: And just to take a step back, in Trani it's
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: quite clear that the ANC is losing votes to the EFF,
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: to Action SA, to Mkonto S-Israel and the DA. So
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: it's going in all directions. And again here, the simplest
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: would probably be a government of national unity between the
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: two largest parties. But if the ANC wanted to work
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: with the EFF and Action SA, they would probably need
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: to go knocking on Mkonto S's door again. So this
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: becomes complicated stuff if these results hold out. Because again,
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: just to do the math, the DA on 34, Freedom
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: Front Plus on 8, that's 42.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Mkonto S's were on 5.
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  Speaker 3: Around that 47% mark, it's hard to form a stable
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  Speaker 3: coalition without one of those parties involved.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: And it'll be similar in the East Rand as well,
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: in Nekuruleni. Yeah.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Let's have a break from Gauteng and its indeterminate solutions.
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: I find the Cape Town numbers interesting. DA at 52.6,
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  Speaker 2: rounded up to 53.
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  Speaker 1: The ANC.
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: Am I wrong in saying stronger than I've known them
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: to be in the Western Cape in the past? They're
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: at 24. And the Patriotic Alliance, which we've discussed many times, Wayne,
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: really making hay in places like Georgian Oats, but somehow
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: not making a dent in Cape Town, which is pretty
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: much what News 24 found as well.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Correct, John.
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: I was surprised at the ANC's robust numbers. We know
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  Speaker 3: nationwide in 2024, 24, The Western Cape was a major
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: challenge and the city of Cape Town. The ANC lost
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: about 33% of its support, a third of its support
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: in the city of Cape Town. So the polls showing
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: them to grow, I was surprised, but I mean, I trust.
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: The sampling methodology of this poll, but the Democratic Alliance
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: holding on. But again, what this poll suggests is that
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: on the Cape Flats, in areas like Mitchell's Plain and Athlone,
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: that some of that DA support is going to the PA,
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: some to the National Colored Congress, some to Al-Jamaa, some
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: to Action SA. Right. A bit like what's happening to
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: the ANC in the Ghateng townships, going in all directions,
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: not in one particular direction.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Right.
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  Speaker 2: And Itagwini, you don't find the MK Party absolutely over
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: the line, but very close to it at 48%. If
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: I'm correct in my recollection, higher than News24 found them.
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: That could be a time issue in that the MK
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: Party's gaining some ground. They don't quite have 50, but
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: if they're going to get 50, is there a little
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  Speaker 2: package of smaller parties, the NFP, for example, that might
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: get them over 50? And reasonably comfortably so, I would think,
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: because 50 plus one probably won't do it.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Correct.
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: So get ready, I think, to say the name, Mayor
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: Nkolisi Pakati, who's formerly from the ATM, who's the Mkonto
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: Esizwe's mayoral candidate in Etaqueni.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: You've got the EFF, you can get them over the line.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: And remember.
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: If you want to see a whole host of one-seat parties,
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: look right at Etiquette. And if my memory serves you correctly, John,
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: I think there are 12 parties with one seats now.
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: So if Mkwantu Isizwe is going to get near that 48% mark,
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: they will be very confident of forming a coalition and
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  Speaker 3: leading the third largest metropolitan municipality in South Africa after
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: these local government elections.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: And just finally, a broad question, Wayne, and briefly, if
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: you can. We're talking about unstable coalitions. Of course, you
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: can have a coalition, and then it becomes increasingly unstable
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: when it sets about the business of actually governing. Coalitions
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: built on who you dislike the least, I would have thought,
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: don't necessarily produce particularly good governance.
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: Correct, because ultimately you can be brought down by one
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: or two seat political parties who can hold the balance
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: of power and throw their weight around. And by the way,
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: in the ENCA Mark Data Survey, one of the most
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: interesting questions is the, and I know I'm going to
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: be quick, is the view of municipalities over the last
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: five years. And typically where we've seen smaller parties prop
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: up the ANC and there's been this perception of coalitions
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: of chaos, the respondents in the survey were very negative
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: towards those municipalities.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: Thanks so much. It's a fascinating study. Go onto the
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: ENCA website, check it out, and look at some of
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: those numbers and does it accord what we've shared with
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: you with what people are saying in your friendship and
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: work circles? I'd be keen to know.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: 26 past five.