Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Crypto vs CLARITY Uncertainty📉Technical Analysis ‪with Evan Aldo‬
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Let's get into it today. A clarity rally uncertainty is underway.
- 0:04Speaker 1: I'm going to break it down with you. Evan's going
- 0:06Speaker 1: to be joining me here in a minute. We're going
- 0:07Speaker 1: to chart a whole bunch of tokens. You don't want
- 0:09Speaker 1: to miss it. Let's just get started. I do want
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- 0:39Speaker 1: I've got the first topic I want to hit on,
- 0:42Speaker 1: and that, of course, is a clip here of Tucker
- 0:45Speaker 1: Carlson and mister Wonderful talking about crypto of all things.
- 0:50Speaker 2: Take a look now you're coming into my space. I'm
- 0:52Speaker 2: an indexer for sovereign wealth. The only reason fifty two
- 0:56Speaker 2: cents of every dollar comes to America is the transparency
- 1:01Speaker 2: of our laws. So you may't hate the sec you
- 1:05Speaker 2: may not like you know, regulations, but in fact it
- 1:08Speaker 2: gives an infrastructure where most capital comes here.
- 1:10Speaker 3: It's a balance.
- 1:11Speaker 2: That's why we trust the government.
- 1:13Speaker 3: A lot of people don't like them.
- 1:14Speaker 2: We say, look at the end of the day, you
- 1:16Speaker 2: know the great example that we could use that you
- 1:18Speaker 2: both know. I don't think crypto is going to work
- 1:20Speaker 2: until they passed the bill about crypto. They got to
- 1:23Speaker 2: finish this Infrastructure Act so that finally crypto can find
- 1:28Speaker 2: its place inside of the eleven sectors of our economy.
- 1:32Speaker 2: No one's going to I'm not investing in crypto until
- 1:34Speaker 2: they get that friggin think through the heaven.
- 1:38Speaker 1: All right, So there you have. Welcome to the show,
- 1:40Speaker 1: mister Evan Aldough. All right, Evan, you saw that clip.
- 1:45Speaker 1: Where do you stand right now in clarity?
- 1:47Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I guess I think in a few months,
- 1:51Speaker 3: you know, potentially, you know, end of summer is my guess,
- 1:54Speaker 3: you know, maybe July August, and it would segue if
- 1:57Speaker 3: we do see a correction, it would segue two kind
- 1:59Speaker 3: of by the rumor, if it is officially passive, we
- 2:03Speaker 3: get some you know, bearage price action, which I think
- 2:05Speaker 3: potentially or next month two months, and that could potentially
- 2:09Speaker 3: mark a bottom, especially for some all coins on their
- 2:11Speaker 3: bitcoin pairs. I think it may may be good for
- 2:14Speaker 3: all it's especially.
- 2:16Speaker 1: Well listen, we're looking at bitcoin blow seventy nine right now.
- 2:19Speaker 1: You've got that along with this right here, which is
- 2:22Speaker 1: the volatility that we're probably going to see. So is
- 2:26Speaker 1: this a sell the news event if you go in
- 2:30Speaker 1: and chart bitcoin right now? I don't know. I know
- 2:34Speaker 1: you have some positions, you know of where you think
- 2:36Speaker 1: the perfect entry is. Where would you stand right now
- 2:40Speaker 1: on bitcoin?
- 2:42Speaker 3: Yeah, So the biggest thing on bitcoin we got to
- 2:44Speaker 3: realize is you have your daily two hundred at SMA
- 2:47Speaker 3: right here, which is just a major major point. We
- 2:49Speaker 3: kind of have been rejecting from it so far. When
- 2:51Speaker 3: you look at the way money flow is going, it
- 2:54Speaker 3: looks like price wants to reject and potentially come back
- 2:56Speaker 3: to seventy two K. And in a second I'll tell
- 2:59Speaker 3: you why. Potentially I think you could go down a
- 3:01Speaker 3: bit further too, potentially over the next month two months.
- 3:04Speaker 3: It's seasonality, you know what we normally see higher low,
- 3:07Speaker 3: double bottom situation. But what would invalidate that and turn
- 3:10Speaker 3: me a little bit more bullish because there's always an invalidation.
- 3:13Speaker 3: If you can break above this hold, like eighty three K,
- 3:16Speaker 3: then we could start talking about super cycle ninety two
- 3:18Speaker 3: K and all that. But right now I would lean
- 3:21Speaker 3: a little bit more bearish. The other thing that's huge
- 3:23Speaker 3: is your two hundred weekly SMA, and this is generally
- 3:27Speaker 3: always where bitcoin is bottom historically. I mean, the last
- 3:30Speaker 3: bear market got a little bit worse, but it was
- 3:32Speaker 3: still deep value. You know, when you hit it essentially,
- 3:35Speaker 3: and I think you got a decent shot by the
- 3:37Speaker 3: time we actually hit it in maybe sixty five K
- 3:39Speaker 3: and let's say June, July, August, maybe somewhere like this
- 3:43Speaker 3: for a double bottom, higher low, And that's always what
- 3:46Speaker 3: happens with bitcoin. That's always how bitcoin's bottom. So I
- 3:50Speaker 3: think there's a high likelihood of that. If you look
- 3:51Speaker 3: at some of these timeframes, these higher timeframes, like you're
- 3:54Speaker 3: six D the buyers are starting to look exhausted, money
- 3:57Speaker 3: flows coming out. I think you need to have some
- 3:59Speaker 3: type of health correction. Bitcoin is always known to have,
- 4:02Speaker 3: you know, fifteen twenty percent corrections all the time. Sixty
- 4:05Speaker 3: five K would be a twenty percent correction, So that's
- 4:08Speaker 3: what I would you know make in mind. Okay, yeah,
- 4:11Speaker 3: that's what I would say is most likely SNAr.
- 4:12Speaker 1: So sixty five K would be a major correction, obviously,
- 4:16Speaker 1: a great entry, and maybe what could even happen after clarity?
- 4:21Speaker 1: Do you think that is something that could happen if
- 4:24Speaker 1: Clarity drags on through the summer and we get a
- 4:27Speaker 1: late maybe late July or you know there's even been
- 4:30Speaker 1: because remember August is they're pretty much out. Uh, there's
- 4:34Speaker 1: a little bit of time in September. I was talking
- 4:36Speaker 1: to out of Minehart the other day. He mentioned September.
- 4:40Speaker 1: He's an analysis that's been on DC for a long time,
- 4:42Speaker 1: so he knows kind of the timing here. I would
- 4:45Speaker 1: disagree with that. What are your thoughts, I mean, where
- 4:47Speaker 1: bitcoin would be in June and July. Do you think
- 4:51Speaker 1: this is the window right now?
- 4:53Speaker 3: I think that if yeah, I think that that could
- 4:56Speaker 3: mark the bottom. Let's say big, I mean bitcoin could
- 4:58Speaker 3: be I mean it's a twenty p correction, which is significant,
- 5:01Speaker 3: but nothing insane obviously, So I think a month to
- 5:04Speaker 3: two months is easily where you could see that mid
- 5:07Speaker 3: July and then you pass that Clarity bill. This first
- 5:10Speaker 3: breakthrough on the Clarity bill. Let's say that's more of
- 5:12Speaker 3: a sell the news situation right in the next actual
- 5:15Speaker 3: passage of the Clarity Bill, if by the rumor and
- 5:18Speaker 3: that kind of marks your bottom. Potentially, I don't know, July, August,
- 5:22Speaker 3: I mean Septembers possible. I think August would be. People
- 5:25Speaker 3: would still remember it when they go into the voting booth.
- 5:27Speaker 3: If you pass into August, could pass it tomorrow, maybe
- 5:31Speaker 3: a little early.
- 5:33Speaker 1: All right, Listen, I want to go over to some
- 5:34Speaker 1: of the macro side of things. I've got a clip
- 5:36Speaker 1: here of President Trump talking about American's financial situation. Listen
- 5:42Speaker 1: to this one.
- 5:44Speaker 2: Do you agree with the president's position that americans financial
- 5:48Speaker 2: situations should not be a consideration in that decision making process.
- 5:52Speaker 4: Well, I don't think the President said that.
- 5:54Speaker 5: I think that's a misrepresentation of what the President said.
- 5:57Speaker 6: I don't think about American situation. I don't think about anybody.
- 6:04Speaker 1: Well, yeah, he's sorrying about defense basically is what he's
- 6:08Speaker 1: getting into if you continue on that clip. But his
- 6:11Speaker 1: point is sometimes he just says the most off the
- 6:14Speaker 1: wall stuff, you know, just like they're gonna clip this
- 6:17Speaker 1: and they're gonna go hard against you in the especially
- 6:20Speaker 1: in the midterms on this because this is a problem
- 6:22Speaker 1: right now. American's financial situation is dire. We're seeing inflation rising.
- 6:29Speaker 1: All of this happening right now. Not a good look
- 6:33Speaker 1: right now for the administration for sure. Last next question
- 6:37Speaker 1: I want to hit on right quickly is chair Palell.
- 6:41Speaker 1: He's gone today is his last day. Do you think
- 6:44Speaker 1: we'll get a rate cut this year at all?
- 6:46Speaker 3: You know it's gonna be top Paul. I think you
- 6:48Speaker 3: need to see a significant well, you need to see
- 6:52Speaker 3: the S and P five hundred come down, you know,
- 6:53Speaker 3: three to six percent at least, and that as that
- 6:55Speaker 3: come down, you need to see a little bit more
- 6:57Speaker 3: uncertainty and that would hopefully bring yields down and then
- 7:00Speaker 3: maybe just maybe you could eke out one into rate
- 7:03Speaker 3: cuts later in this year. Yeah, but inflation's hot right now,
- 7:07Speaker 3: so as of right now, it does it's not looking
- 7:09Speaker 3: too good.
- 7:10Speaker 1: I want to go to a clip real quick, Evan,
- 7:12Speaker 1: because this, of course is Tom Lee and he's talking
- 7:16Speaker 1: about this. Take a look.
- 7:18Speaker 6: You know, this is still going to be a very
- 7:20Speaker 6: tricky year because we have a new FED chair coming
- 7:22Speaker 6: in the market. It's going to test that FED chair.
- 7:24Speaker 6: But once we get through that subsequent turbulence. We are
- 7:29Speaker 6: probably entering, you know, an eighteen to twenty four month
- 7:31Speaker 6: period that might be the one of the best we've
- 7:33Speaker 6: ever seen in our life.
- 7:35Speaker 1: All Right, So he's talking about some turbulence. How long
- 7:38Speaker 1: do you think this turbulence could last?
- 7:42Speaker 3: Couple of months, you know, potentially into yeah, probably just
- 7:46Speaker 3: a few months, just the end of summer, and then
- 7:47Speaker 3: I think you'll see a little bit of rebound, you know,
- 7:50Speaker 3: potentially okay to midterms, which is normally kind of what
- 7:53Speaker 3: you see. So yeah, I mean, I'm not overly concerned.
- 7:57Speaker 3: I think that ETH right now, you know, just talking
- 8:01Speaker 3: about Tom Lee eth versus bitcoin is breaking down right here,
- 8:04Speaker 3: as you can see in my chart, and that's where
- 8:06Speaker 3: it gets a little bit, you know, more concerning. So
- 8:10Speaker 3: I converted my ETH for now over to bitcoin and
- 8:13Speaker 3: micro strategy, and I'm waiting for some momentum. I want
- 8:16Speaker 3: to see upward action something like that, and then I hope,
- 8:20Speaker 3: you know, if you kind of hear that, that's a
- 8:21Speaker 3: better evaluation to get into ether, you know, over bitcoin.
- 8:24Speaker 3: So that's what I'm looking at the other thing too.
- 8:27Speaker 3: You're on some thin if you look at bmin R
- 8:29Speaker 3: versus bitcoin yeah, you're fight. You're breaking down as well,
- 8:32Speaker 3: and you lost those lows from July of twenty twenty five.
- 8:35Speaker 3: So right now I'm out of bmin R, but I'll
- 8:38Speaker 3: be glad to get back in if we see you know,
- 8:41Speaker 3: more momentum, see something.
- 8:42Speaker 1: Like this, Well this is probably what Tom Lee's talking about,
- 8:44Speaker 1: all right, Evan, Now that you're talking about ethereum, let's
- 8:47Speaker 1: go ahead and look at the chart. Where do you stand.
- 8:50Speaker 1: Let's get a price point for you this summer? How fall?
- 8:53Speaker 1: How far down do you think this could correct?
- 8:57Speaker 3: So ethereum, Yeah, looking a little bit more bare. It's
- 9:00Speaker 3: just like bitcoin right now. Obviously you know I was
- 9:02Speaker 3: talking about a twenty percent drop for a bitcoin. Eth
- 9:05Speaker 3: is already dropping. You know, it's been dropping more so
- 9:08Speaker 3: kind of from where we are right now, or like
- 9:10Speaker 3: you know, twenty two hundred about you know, twenty percent
- 9:12Speaker 3: would be fifteen to twenty percent would be nineteen hundred.
- 9:15Speaker 3: You do have a major trend line right around two thousand.
- 9:17Speaker 3: So the hail Mary here would be hopefully you get
- 9:21Speaker 3: to jump here and you start to perform bitcoin and
- 9:23Speaker 3: do well there. But if you know, I mean, I'm
- 9:26Speaker 3: okay with nineteen hundred I think if you lose nineteen hundred,
- 9:29Speaker 3: that's where it gets scarier because you're losing like major
- 9:32Speaker 3: trend lines, major momentum here from you know, a long
- 9:35Speaker 3: time ago, and this is just losing momentum. If you're
- 9:37Speaker 3: you know, going all the way down to like sixteen
- 9:39Speaker 3: or fifteen hundred. You know, if I had a guess here,
- 9:42Speaker 3: what would happen. I think you got a decent shot
- 9:44Speaker 3: of actually surprising a lot of people. And I'll bet
- 9:47Speaker 3: on Tom Lee a little bit here. Maybe you jump
- 9:49Speaker 3: off a two thousand and then you start to perform bitcoin.
- 9:52Speaker 3: So I think a lot of people are probably going
- 9:55Speaker 3: to get in towards the end of the summer. Say
- 9:56Speaker 3: let's say Clarity acts. People get in towards end the
- 9:59Speaker 3: summ run Clarity Act passes maybe around twenty two undred,
- 10:02Speaker 3: maybe around two thousand. You know, that could be huge.
- 10:05Speaker 3: That could definitely be huge.
- 10:06Speaker 1: That's what I'm looking for, all right, So that's that's
- 10:10Speaker 1: a good point for ethereum. I want to play a
- 10:13Speaker 1: clip from Gareth because he had a shocking stat that
- 10:17Speaker 1: he showed that I think makes a lot of uh
- 10:21Speaker 1: a lot of interesting debate here. Let's go to it.
- 10:24Speaker 4: We're getting way beyond the ridiculousness of this.
- 10:27Speaker 3: Now.
- 10:28Speaker 4: What's interesting about this is it's coming on the back
- 10:31Speaker 4: of the Trump g summit where really nothing got done
- 10:35Speaker 4: at least as of now, and so, believe it or not,
- 10:38Speaker 4: it's not expected that China's going to actually buy these chips. Now.
- 10:41Speaker 4: The whole reason for the last few day rally was
- 10:43Speaker 4: that China was going to be granted the ability to buy,
- 10:46Speaker 4: and it was assumed that there would be a deal
- 10:48Speaker 4: to buy x amount. There was not. Really, there's no
- 10:52Speaker 4: major trade deals here, there's no movement on a ran
- 10:55Speaker 4: oil is spiking today. Check this one out. Never before
- 10:59Speaker 4: has the market been making new all time highs while
- 11:01Speaker 4: the breath has been so negative. In fact, almost ten
- 11:04Speaker 4: percent of the S and P five hundred has been
- 11:07Speaker 4: making new fifty two week lows while the markets are
- 11:11Speaker 4: making all time highs. Think about that.
- 11:14Speaker 1: What if you look at the SPX right now, how
- 11:16Speaker 1: do you feel this thing is performing. Do you think
- 11:18Speaker 1: this is going to continue to see some all time
- 11:21Speaker 1: highs after a retracement.
- 11:23Speaker 3: So I think if you're Trump right now, you want
- 11:26Speaker 3: your SPX to go down just a little bit over
- 11:29Speaker 3: the next few months. Bring inflation down, bring your interest
- 11:32Speaker 3: rates down? You went up looking you know this, this this
- 11:35Speaker 3: looks very healthy to you. I mean, it looks like
- 11:37Speaker 3: you need some type of correction. I would argue that
- 11:39Speaker 3: if you lose seven forty on your spy right here,
- 11:42Speaker 3: you like to go down around seven thirteen, which is
- 11:45Speaker 3: a very likely seasonal, you know, kind of correction five percent,
- 11:50Speaker 3: maybe even seven percent. This is a huge area back here.
- 11:53Speaker 3: And what do you need to bring inflation down? What
- 11:55Speaker 3: do you need to bring some interest rates down? So
- 11:56Speaker 3: you get a cut or two. You probably need to
- 11:58Speaker 3: come down to seven hundred again. And so I could
- 12:01Speaker 3: see something like this potentially happening over the next few months.
- 12:04Speaker 3: I don't know if it's going to be this much down,
- 12:06Speaker 3: but you definitely could see a correction nasdek as well,
- 12:09Speaker 3: potentially coming back to maybe six six'. Eighty you know around.
- 12:15Speaker 3: Here you want some type of, correction get people a
- 12:18Speaker 3: little bit, scared get your yields down a little, bit
- 12:21Speaker 3: and then just maybe you can get a rate cup
- 12:23Speaker 3: by the end of the. Year All, right we covered.
- 12:25Speaker 1: EIGHTH i want to get into micro. Strategy Michael saylor's
- 12:30Speaker 1: strategy is estimated to have bought thirteen thousand bitcoin today via.
- 12:35Speaker 1: Stretch we've talked about stretch. Before it's a thirty x
- 12:39Speaker 1: on the amount of daily. Bitcoin mind so obviously supply
- 12:42Speaker 1: side is going to get intriguing. Here micro, strategy how
- 12:46Speaker 1: would you play this?
- 12:47Speaker 3: One SO i sold a couple of cash secured puts,
- 12:51Speaker 3: yesterday strike price around one, FIFTY i, think and expiration
- 12:55Speaker 3: like six weeks from now or something like, that five six.
- 12:57Speaker 3: WEEKS i think in all, likelihood you, know gap to
- 13:00Speaker 3: our size. Here it's, good you know for obviously the,
- 13:03Speaker 3: macro but you're gonna need some type of. Correction if
- 13:05Speaker 3: bick one comes, down you, know twenty, percent this likely
- 13:07Speaker 3: comes down probably a little bit. MORE i think the big,
- 13:10Speaker 3: area big line in the, sand is one. FIFTY i
- 13:12Speaker 3: don't think you would lose one fifty IF i had a,
- 13:15Speaker 3: FIGHT i guess. HERE i don't think you'd lose in.
- 13:16Speaker 3: FIFTY i think you'll, see you know that drop down
- 13:19Speaker 3: a one fifty and then into kind of end of
- 13:21Speaker 3: year or you, know later, summer end of, year you
- 13:24Speaker 3: come back up to, here and then potentially by end
- 13:26Speaker 3: of YEAR i could see two thirty maybe you know
- 13:29Speaker 3: something like. That so, YEAH i think you're gonna say
- 13:31Speaker 3: a healthy correction then, recover.
- 13:33Speaker 1: All, Right so this is big. News whales are not
- 13:36Speaker 1: selling THEIR xrp while it's holding at least ten. MILLION
- 13:40Speaker 1: xrp now control forty five point eight billion tokens worth
- 13:45Speaker 1: of roughly about sixty eight point five billion. Total this
- 13:49Speaker 1: is the largest whale balance since twenty. Eighteen SO xrp
- 13:54Speaker 1: standing strong Here in terms of the, community where would
- 13:57Speaker 1: you PUT xrp In? June If bitcoin is falling below
- 14:03Speaker 1: seventy k this.
- 14:05Speaker 3: Could hold up pretty. Well cautious. Optimism it looks better
- 14:09Speaker 3: than most things right, Now, PAUL.
- 14:10Speaker 1: I mean really, okay, YEAH i.
- 14:13Speaker 3: MEAN i think you'll probably come back to one. THIRTY
- 14:15Speaker 3: i could see a double, bottom maybe one, twenty you,
- 14:18Speaker 3: know something like, this just Like, bitcoin but you might
- 14:21Speaker 3: be able to hold one. Thirty this thing's kind of
- 14:23Speaker 3: in its own orbit, sometimes and if you will GET
- 14:25Speaker 3: xrp Versus, bitcoin you, know it's been up in the
- 14:28Speaker 3: last you know, Week so, YEAH i don't. Know some
- 14:32Speaker 3: people would probably be fading this rally it is. Rejecting,
- 14:34Speaker 3: well have to see what. Happens but as long as
- 14:36Speaker 3: you could kind of hold you, know these lows on
- 14:38Speaker 3: Your bitcoin, evaluation there's some. Potential this looks a lot
- 14:41Speaker 3: better than pretty much every other alt right now in my,
- 14:44Speaker 3: opinion or at least major alts.
- 14:46Speaker 1: There it is king of alts right now in terms
- 14:48Speaker 1: of performance wise ON, xrp let's move over To. Solana
- 14:55Speaker 1: solana right now has a bit of an edge over e,
- 14:58Speaker 1: theoryum especially in dex. Trading you look at, this and
- 15:05Speaker 1: AFTER i went to The Salana, ACCELERATE i was surprisingly
- 15:11Speaker 1: optimistic about WHAT i saw there in terms of the,
- 15:15Speaker 1: builders just you know the way that THEY i think
- 15:18Speaker 1: we're attracting good talent in terms of, growth and maybe
- 15:21Speaker 1: this is why we're seeing a lot of new projects
- 15:23Speaker 1: rolled out ON. Soeul where do you think this thing
- 15:26Speaker 1: slipped under ninety after popping up? There where do you
- 15:29Speaker 1: think this goes In?
- 15:30Speaker 3: June, YEAH i think it's probably going to head back
- 15:33Speaker 3: to somewhere between eighty to seventy three or something eighty
- 15:38Speaker 3: to seventy, three kind of this range down, here the
- 15:40Speaker 3: same range you've been. IN i, mean it is a
- 15:41Speaker 3: pretty elongated accumulation phase time based capitulation crab, market you
- 15:46Speaker 3: know that type of. SITUATION i think from there you'll
- 15:49Speaker 3: probably get more of a bounce towards the end of
- 15:51Speaker 3: the year and end the year target you can GetUp
- 15:53Speaker 3: to one twenty by in the.
- 15:54Speaker 1: Years sub eighty is is a buye? Okay?
- 15:57Speaker 3: Yeah or if you when you see more moments him against,
- 16:00Speaker 3: bitcoin because what's? Happening this looks worse than next our
- 16:02Speaker 3: penut and bitcoin it jumped up a little, bit but
- 16:04Speaker 3: now it's you, know maybe maybe rolling over maybe What
- 16:07Speaker 3: eth has kind of been. Doing so we definitely got
- 16:10Speaker 3: to keep an eye, here eye on. This, yes a
- 16:12Speaker 3: lot of versus. Bitcoin not enough momentum yet for me
- 16:15Speaker 3: to want to buy soul over, Bitcoin, okay but maybe that'll.
- 16:19Speaker 1: Change, WELL i understand. It you guys know what to.
- 16:22Speaker 1: Do evanaldo's. Program you guys can get crypto trading, markets siffer,
- 16:26Speaker 1: tutorials all kind of cool stuff over. There check it
- 16:28Speaker 1: Out evanaldo over on. YouTube, evan thanks for coming in, today.
- 16:32Speaker 3: Man always a, Pleasure, paul it was all.
- 16:34Speaker 5: Right if you like this, video like and, subscribe drop
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