Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Super Bowl LIX Prop Bets

Transcript

The Favorites - Super Bowl LIX Prop Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: Oh.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: our Tuesday Super Bowl fifty nine Props episode. We are
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: welcoming in our very special Action Network colleagues. Two of
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: the best in the business might be the best in
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: the business prop betting experts, Chris Raybon and Sean Kerner.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: They are two of Fantasy Pros top ranked NFL player projectionists.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: You can hear them every week on the must listen
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Fantasy Flex Podcast. They'll give out some of their favorite
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: super Bowl props with us today. After Shawn and Chris,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell is going to go through the best
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: submissions from our BET three six ' five super Bowl
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: prop contest. At the very end, Well announced the contest
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: winner and have that person join the show. As a reminder,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Sharp calls, Big Balls, Biggest Bets, Scoot Roulette. All gonna
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: come on Thursday, our final episode before the super Bowl.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Very exciting week, Plenty of stuff to discuss live remember
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Tommy John Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always by my
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: co host, my companion, mikeem Bodre might BFF professional better signon,
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Hunter at Olsall, I'm.
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: In chad happy super Bowl Week, my man.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: We made it, brother, little melancholy. You know, we got
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Raybon on today. You know I love listening not only
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: do the Fantasy Flex with him and Kerner, which I
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: listened to every week when I'm prepping for our show.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: I also listened to the Action Network pod with Raybon
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: and Stuckey in the Sunday six Pack. And when I
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: listened to it this week, they had the show post
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: last night and Raybon at the end was like, it's
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: our last show with the season. You know, six years,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Raybun and Stuck you have been doing that. I love
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: the six Pack, And I was a little bit a
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: little bit sad, little bit teary eyed that we're coming
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: down to our last two episodes before the super Bowl.
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's sad that it's over, but I mean that's
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: how we we'd love and appreciate the season. Brother, It's
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: got to end so we can enjoy what it starts
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: up again next year. That's just part of life.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Don't be sad that it's over, signon, Just be happy
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: that it's happened. As a reminder of the Favorites podcast
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: is presented by Bet three sixty five and now new
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars. Sound
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: up using promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars. Place a
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. At Bet three six five. Must be
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Mister Sean Kerner, mister Chris Raybon, both of
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: you dressed in eagles gear, which worries me a little
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: bit as someone along with Simon who on the two
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: episodes last week, it often described how into the chiefs
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: we were, and Raybon I'm going to ask you specifically
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: about your side later in the show. Just explain to
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: me and to Simon and to those watching on YouTube. Cerner,
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: why are in your Eagle's hat which always makes me nervous.
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah, don't get nervous, Chad. It's not that big of
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: a deal. I would say all three of my props
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: involve Eagles players in some way, shape or form. Last week,
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: most props involved Chiefs players, so I was wearing a
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: Chiefs hat. So that's that's why I'm rocking the Eagles
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: hat today.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Got it, all right? Raybon? Give me the reason for
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: your Eagles gear. You'r Randall Cunningham throwback jersey.
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: During COVID, I had a lot of disposable income. I
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: didn't know what to do with it, so I bought
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: a bunch of jerseys, and really, this is the only
• 4:22
  Speaker 5: time I can wear them.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: All right, We're gonna get to it then, h Curner
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: and Raybon last week did the first version of their
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Propapalooza pod. They will do the second one on Wednesday.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: On last week's version, Remind me if I'm wrong, or
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong. Kerner's prop, one of them
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: was Drew Tranquil under seven and a half tackles. It's
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: currently minus one sixty. Also, there was violence inflicted upon me.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, who wants who wants to own it?
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: Raybon Hey, I you know Sean was explaining who Drew
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: Tranquil was and I just said, I'm not Chad Milman.
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: I know who Drew Tranquil is. This is not convinced me.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: For the record. For the record, I'm fully aware of
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: most starters on NFL teams. But it's when you bring
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: out your fucking let's go bet John Beck under a reception,
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: don't don't traumatic traumatic.
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: Experience, John Bates. It's bas there you go, Andrew Beck.
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: Andrew Beck is the other.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: That's what I mean. When you're bringing outt fourasting receivers
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: that don't even average a catch a game, that's when
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: I might not get it. Okay, So kra like Drew Trankwell,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Raybund liked under eight and a half total pass catchers
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: for Kansas City. I think Raybond like no miskicks up
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: to plus one seventy five. Crder liked most tackles and
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: assists is a long shot. Oorn Burks plus three twenty
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: am I missing anything from that one Fellas.
• 6:06
  Speaker 5: Yep, so long ago. They'll do the last week props.
• 6:11
  Speaker 6: Bro let's got on there. We got we got some
• 6:14
  Speaker 6: new ones for you Chad today.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: I know this week. This week you each have three
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: brand new props for me and Simon, some of which
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: I imagine is previewing prop a pal loser. Maybe these
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: are all special ones. Raybon, kick us off, give us
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: your current best prop.
• 6:31
  Speaker 5: All right, well, I'm not gonna kick us off, but
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: we're gonna go with field goals over one and a
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: half for Kansas City at minus one twenty five. I
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: would bet this up to about minus one fifty. So
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: I think that the Chiefs are going to struggle in
• 6:43
  Speaker 5: a red zone. That's kind of what's been the history
• 6:47
  Speaker 5: of Patrick Mahomes going up against Vic Fangio defenses. He's
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: been able to move the ball, but really struggled in
• 6:54
  Speaker 5: the red zone in Kansas City this year, just number
• 6:58
  Speaker 5: twenty six and fourth down attempts and they've only gone
• 7:00
  Speaker 5: for it twice all year on more than fourth and
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: one with Mahomes starting. So Andy Reid will take the
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: points here. Harrison Bucker fifteen to fifteen. The last two postseasons,
• 7:13
  Speaker 5: Eagles have allowed multiple field goal attempts in all three
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: playoff games, the Chiefs have made two or more and
• 7:19
  Speaker 5: eleven of eighteen Mahome starts two or more in seven
• 7:23
  Speaker 5: of eight against Fangio defenses with Mahomes and six of
• 7:27
  Speaker 5: eight playoff games over the last two postseasons. So I
• 7:30
  Speaker 5: think there's a high likelihood that you get at least
• 7:33
  Speaker 5: two Harrison Butner field goals. I don't even mind laddering
• 7:37
  Speaker 5: you know, three four as well, because I do think
• 7:40
  Speaker 5: that the Eagles are going to be able to get
• 7:42
  Speaker 5: some stops down in the red area.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Seven. You got any thoughts on that.
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: I mean, I hope he's right. I was gonna say
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: we're heavy. I'm heavy on the under so that would
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: be pretty nice for me. And I totally agree that,
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: you know, the few defenses that give the issues. I mean,
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: even this season, though we've seen their numbers, it was,
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: what but they round twenty second this year, Chris and
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: the red zone efficiency like exactly twenty. Yeah, this season,
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: they've already struggled with it. So I think it adds
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: to it the fact that you know they've struggled against
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: the defense and their kicker. Before his injury, he was automatic.
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: Even since he's been back, he's been pretty good. And
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: then the fact that they're in a dome, it only
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: adds to me, like in these kicker props even more.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, look, we love the kicker props. We love when
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Sean and Raybon talk about the kicker prop. So I'm
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: glad Raybon is euphemistically kicking it off with a Kicker
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: prop because I was going to ask them if they
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: were any up that they liked. So that's good, Kerner.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Give me your Eagles prop.
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: Well, I'm three of them. But the first one is
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: it's definitely a juicy one. It's Saquon Barkley to have
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: the most rushing attempts in the game at minus three
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: point fifty. This is one I would kind of bet
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: Tenny juice. But you know, Barkley's a massive favorite in
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: this market, rightfully so, but the press should be a
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: lot higher. I mean, his rush tent prop is around
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: twenty one and a half right now. The next closest
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: is cream Hunt at eleven and a half. Then you
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: have Jalen Hurts at nine and a half. Mahomes and
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: Pacheco are both around six unlike yards, where you know,
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: any given play a player can pop off for fifty
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: plus yards. It's a wide range of outcomes. You know,
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: a player can only get one rush attempt on any
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: given play, So the distribution of these props as much tighter.
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: So in my assimulation, I'm showing like a ninety six
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: percent chance he has the most rush attempts. But then
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: you have to factor in, you know, the chances of
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: him getting injured. He would have to get injured before
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: getting like fifteen rush attempts. If he has fifteen rush
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: attempts and he gets nucked out of the game, he'll
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: probably still take down this market. Or like the ideal
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: game script where the Chiefs get up early to a
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: big lead early Kareem Hunt ends up, you know, rushing
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: the ball twenty plus times, Eagles have to get in
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: a pass out of game script. Factoring all that in,
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: I'd say a very conservative project be about eighty five percent,
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: so like minus five sixty for Barkley to lead the
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: game in rush attempts. So I think even though it's
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: juicy and pricey at minus three fifty, I still think
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: there's some value.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Here that one doesn't correlate exactly to what I would
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: like to happen in the game. But it's interesting. Yeah,
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: it's true. I mean it's interesting the delta. I know,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: you know Raybon and Stuckey Raybon jump in here because
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: I know you and Stuck talked a little bit about
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Saquon's rushing total prop. And this market was so inflated
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: before the NFC title game opened up, I think a
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: little bit more reasonably for the Super Bowl, but has
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: still been coming down. Do you have any thoughts on
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: his rushing total yardage prop?
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 10:57
  Speaker 5: So I think it's still about five yards too high,
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: which you can expect that in a game like this.
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: But one thing that's interesting it kind of goes with
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: what Seawn is saying, is that Sequon Barkley's been busting
• 11:09
  Speaker 5: off these exposive plays almost every game. If he doesn't,
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: they're inversely correlated his yardage and his attempts, right, because
• 11:17
  Speaker 5: if he doesn't bust off a seventy yard or on
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: one carry, he might need you know, eight carries, ten carries,
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: you know, a whole drive worth of carries, whatever that
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: may be, to get that same amount of yards multiple drives.
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: Even so, that's how you kind of have to think
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: about the attempt So just if you want to fade
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: Saquon Barkley or back Saquon Barkley, it's not as simple
• 11:37
  Speaker 5: as just going like over attempts over yards. I think
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: attempts would indicate he's probably struggling a little more than
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: just necessarily. Okay, the Eagles are in a positive game
• 11:47
  Speaker 5: scrip like they're gonna run the ball no matter what,
• 11:49
  Speaker 5: like up down, They'll run the ball as long as
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: they can, especially now, So I think you know, that's
• 11:56
  Speaker 5: something to keep in mind, is that his yardage is
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: gonna be a little inversely correlated with the attempts.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: He also does tend to disappear sometimes there are there
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: are parts of the game where either there they've got
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: gain well in there for extended looks, or he just
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: sort of is one yard two yard, one yard, two
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: yard and then he breaks Yeah, how did he not?
• 12:19
  Speaker 5: Like he didn't even clear his his yardage prop last
• 12:22
  Speaker 5: in the championship game in the first run he got
• 12:24
  Speaker 5: like sixty sixty seventy yards, So yeah, that that kind of.
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: Well, he was dealing with that calf injury right like
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: he was out of the game.
• 12:31
  Speaker 5: He did Yeah, yeah.
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: I think if if he was healthy, I don't think
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: Gainwell plays more than just a handful of snaps. I
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: think that had to do with Barkley just like actually
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: being injured.
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: Yeah, but I mean he's also when you guys get
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: to that volume level, like you almost gotta project like
• 12:48
  Speaker 5: a half a carrier carry for the backup, just because
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: it's so hard to stay healthy for that many snaps.
• 12:52
  Speaker 5: Like we've seen Barkley. We have a few games now
• 12:56
  Speaker 5: where they're giving him like all the carry. I think
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: even in the Week one he had he missed a
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: couple of players, but it's happened a few times. But yeah,
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: I agree. I don't think Gang Will get much time.
• 13:03
  Speaker 5: Maybe some third down pass blocking stuff.
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think people just got unlucky. Right, this guy
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: had fifteen carries and it was in a blowout, and basically, Sirianni,
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: he's just been talking about saving him for this exact game.
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: So this game, I can't see him saving for anything, right,
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: There's no It's the offseason, so to me, I'd be
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: shocked to game Will getting many touches. What's your next prop, Chris?
• 13:24
  Speaker 5: All Right, So, speaking of which, I'm going with both
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: teams combined rushing yardage under two hundred and eighty five
• 13:32
  Speaker 5: and a half. You can get that at minus one
• 13:35
  Speaker 5: fifteen at bet three six five. I think this is
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: way too high. I have these teams projected to combine
• 13:40
  Speaker 5: for just under two hundred and sixty total rushing yards.
• 13:44
  Speaker 5: So Number one Kansas City. They've been struggling to run
• 13:48
  Speaker 5: the ball since they moved Joe Tony to left tackle
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: from guard. Ninety nine carries for the running backs three
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: point five to seven yards per carry since they made
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: that moves. And this is a top two run defense
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: in Philadelphia. On the other side, we've heard it all,
• 14:01
  Speaker 5: you know, all week. Kansas City, they haven't allowed one
• 14:04
  Speaker 5: hundred yard rusher. Now, I think they've had a very
• 14:06
  Speaker 5: easy schedule of opposing run offenses, has the Chiefs. But
• 14:11
  Speaker 5: I still think they're a good run defense because of
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: Steve Spagnol. Remember last two Super Bowls against Philly a
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: couple of years ago, they had a top five running offense.
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: He held them to three point six yards of carry
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: on thirty two carries. San Francisco comes in last year
• 14:26
  Speaker 5: top three rushing offense. Christian McCaffrey. How are we going
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: to stop them? Kansas City's one of the worst run defenses,
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: number twenty seven. They hold him to thirty one for
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: one to ten. The Niners total for the game just
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: three point five five yards per carry. So Spagnol's gonna
• 14:41
  Speaker 5: kind of he's gonna kind of switch into front's weight
• 14:44
  Speaker 5: in the down and kind of confuse them that way,
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: and you know, make Jalen Hurts make some checks and
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: things like that, so they'll find a way to slow
• 14:52
  Speaker 5: them slow Barkley down. I don't think he'll hop off
• 14:55
  Speaker 5: quite as much as he has the last couple of games.
• 14:57
  Speaker 5: And if you just look at the numbers philadelph you
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: combined rushing yards over this number in twelve or nineteen,
• 15:03
  Speaker 5: but Kansas City games hasn't happened all year. So you
• 15:06
  Speaker 5: look at the two teams combined, that's just twelve of
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: thirty eight, just thirty two percent. So and that's you know,
• 15:12
  Speaker 5: that's kind of what you're expecting here, which is why
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: I think this market is massively inflated, as you will
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: see for most of just offensive numbers to deal with
• 15:21
  Speaker 5: yardage and touchdowns. But yeah, I think this is about
• 15:23
  Speaker 5: twenty five yards too high, so it can be combining
• 15:25
  Speaker 5: rushing yards under two hundred and eighty five and a
• 15:27
  Speaker 5: half for both teams rushing that.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Does feel insanely high, going completely against expectation for the Chiefs,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: who the last what three or four games we've seen
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: since Isaiah Picheco came back, He's not being used in
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: the same way. He's not getting as many carries. It's
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: really much more about Kareem Hunt. Kareem Hunt banging it
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: up the middle. Kareem Hunt five six, seven, eight yards
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: at the most, except when you know we have under
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: ten and a half yards for his longest carry. Oh
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: does that you know once in a four game span.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: It just happens to be the game that we bet it.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: But generally like this is not a big rushing team.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: And with Joe Toney at left tackle, like Caliendo has
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: not been the same player.
• 16:15
  Speaker 5: Oh he's been terrible. Rights, So they both have like
• 16:19
  Speaker 5: they would both rank like bottom five. You know if
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: they had their PFF run blocking grade over the full year.
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: Since Tooney went to tackle and kali Endo went to guard,
• 16:28
  Speaker 5: it essentially made their run blocking worse at both spots.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: So yeah, right, the only difference is now maybe my
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: Holmes is a little bit more protected at left tackle.
• 16:40
  Speaker 5: Yeah, but he also has like these negative ten yard
• 16:42
  Speaker 5: kneel downs that Sean knows very well. So, uh, that's
• 16:46
  Speaker 5: another way that you could like get like an out
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: to get under this number, even if you're kind of
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: sweating it, you know, maybe it's hanging around that to
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: eighty mark. You know, if Mahomes does to take some
• 16:55
  Speaker 5: kneel downs, you're you're you're definitely going backwards.
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: Also, you even talk about, I mean these both these
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: teams bleed clock. So even if the run game is
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: not working, both teams will still run it. That's who
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: they are in the second half. So that's even better
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: where you know, it could be a lot of thirty
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: and eight thirty sevens that they ran a two times
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: and the both teams won't care if they pick of
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: the first town, they'll probably run it twice again if
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: either team has a lead, Like they just both teams
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: their scripts all season have been leaning on the run
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: heavy in the second half. It just bleeds clock. So
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: like you said, even if both teams aren't successful, they're
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: still going to keep doing it and still keep eating
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: away at that clock, which plays even more to this
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: prop going under.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: It's a really good point. Curner fire away.
• 17:34
  Speaker 6: All right.
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: Well, you know I already gave out a minus three
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: point fifty props, So let's go with a long shot here,
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: let's go. The first sack of the game is going
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: to go to Nolan Smith at sixteen to one. You know,
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: Smith was their first round pick last year, didn't do
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: much as a rookie, but he's really started to break
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: out over the final few weeks of the season and
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: ended the playoff. He actually leads the Eagles in pressures
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: since week fifteen with twenty three. He now is a
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: sack in each three rounds of the playoffs so far.
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: So if he gets a sack in the Super Bowl,
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: he'll be the first player ever to have a sack
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: in four playoff games.
• 18:15
  Speaker 6: So he's just on fire right now.
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: He might be going up against you know, right tackle
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: Jwon Taylor for most of the game, who's allowed a
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: team high forty one pressures.
• 18:23
  Speaker 6: So I love the matchup. You know, love is upside here.
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: He actually has my He's tied for the second highest
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: sack projection in this game. So you know, I show
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: a fair price for the first sack closer to plus
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: eight point fifty and we're getting sixteen to one on this.
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: This is offering too much value. It's also a fun
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: sweat too. I mean, who knows him the first sack
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: is going to be. But this is the market I
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: haven't bet on before. I haven't even seen a price
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: for this yet. But yeah, sixteen to one Nolan Smith
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: signed yep for that.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: That does seem like fun. But as soon as you
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: wrote it down, I'm like, that's every single time Kansas
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: City drops back, there's going to be a super, super
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: exciting sweat happening with Nolan Smith. Evan is reporting that
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: this is what five to one.
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: I got it? Okay, no, no, no, he's saying this
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: is basically five to one every book and the one
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: Shawn's giving out. Go get it at bedt through six
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: five because it's insanely great value.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: Ah got it all right.
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: And just to reiterate what he's saying, Nolan Smith has
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: already set the record for most sacks and Eagles history
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: in the playoffs. That's how impressive this kid has been.
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: He's gotten four sacks. Yeah, I know it's crazy, but
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: it was Brandon Graham at three and a half and
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: he just broke it by getting his fourth sack. So
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: when you really go through it, this kid every week,
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: like Shawn's breaking down, he's gotten better. This is the
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: type of game where they've been watching film on someone
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: for two weeks. They're gonna set them up, like they're
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: gonna know a move that's gonna work on this guy.
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: And like I like Sean saying, I love the those odds.
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: That's a great price for a guy to been waiting
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: two weeks. First, first drop back. He could set this
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: guy up for a little you know, knock his arms down, whatever,
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: swinging on them. Like, there's just a bunch of things
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: you go into when there's really good pass rushers against
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: subpar tackles. They know their weaknesses by this game, and
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: they know which is gonna work. So I love that value,
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: especially the fact that it's sixteen to one right now.
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: That's that's insanely high.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Well, you know what's interesting about having the two weeks,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: and I think this goes for all three of you,
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: really is it's no different than Andy Reid Spagnolo Fango.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: You've got two weeks to game plan for your weaknesses
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: and to game plan for another team's strengths. Right, So
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: let's say Kerner or Raybon or Simon Kerner start with you.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: Over these two weeks, how much do you have to
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: incorporate the idea that someone might be looking to defend
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: against a trend that you've been identifying that is on
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: thep swing?
• 20:58
  Speaker 6: What do you mean exactly?
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: So over let's say, like on a week to week basis, Yeah,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: there's only so much game planning someone can do to
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: improve their weakness against a team's strength. But over two weeks,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of time to try to figure out
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: what that answer is. Right, So you're basing this based
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: on models that are identifying what you think are opportunities
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: or deltas in numbers, whatever the case may be. But
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: coaches are probably looking at that and thinking, Okay, that's
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: a tendency we need to fix. So don't you have
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: to account for that when you're modeling.
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: Yeah, for sure, And I think, like, you know, I'm
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: going to use math for you know, ninety nine percent
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: of the way to get there and then kind of
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: incorporate that. And it kind of goes back to what
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: we're saying with Saquon Barkley, Like, obviously the Chiefs are
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: going to have a couple weeks. The game plan like,
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: how do we slow down Saquon Barkley? And I think
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: they have the scheme and coaching staff to do that.
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: So I'm probably a little bit lower on Barkley than
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: most in the market kind of going with what you're
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: saying is like the extra planning, uh to you know,
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: slow down somebody that's been unstoppable like Barkley. I think
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: it's more likely to be able to do that with
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: the extra week for sure.
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: Yeah, and Chad, I think what you're getting at is,
• 22:10
  Speaker 5: you know, stuck. You and I talked on the on
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: the pod about how a lot of times when you
• 22:15
  Speaker 5: have these pass thrushes and you know you're just gonna
• 22:18
  Speaker 5: get the ball out quick, and that's what's kind of
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: been happened with Mahomes and and and even Hurts, you know,
• 22:22
  Speaker 5: got the ball quicker in the championship. However, I like
• 22:25
  Speaker 5: Sean's bet because the Eagles are a lot more predictable
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: sack wise, pass rush wise, because Fangio already got burned
• 22:33
  Speaker 5: with the blitz. He's probably he usually does not blitz Mahomes.
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: It just doesn't really work, and so you're gonna have
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: you're not gonna get as many disguised pressures and guys
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: coming from every which way like you are with Spagnol,
• 22:47
  Speaker 5: who I think on the decisive play that Bills game,
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: I think he sent one of the corners. I think
• 22:52
  Speaker 5: he said it was either I think it was McDuffie
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: or somebody. So yeah, it's like that's with the Eagles.
• 22:56
  Speaker 5: You're not gonna get as much of that now. Of
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: course you could. It's the super Bowl to try to
• 23:00
  Speaker 5: break tendency, but they're gonna play it a lot more
• 23:02
  Speaker 5: straight up, just because they have that kind of talent
• 23:05
  Speaker 5: and you know, they've tried it the other way and
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: it hasn't really worked, so it's easy. I think it's
• 23:08
  Speaker 5: a little easier to bet their sacks and predict them
• 23:12
  Speaker 5: and model them than it is for the Chiefs.
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: Also, sometimes there's nothing you can really do, Like these
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: teams are so great. There's such at high levels. Like
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: my favorite thing everyone was talking about GM, you know
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: years ago after Mahomes came to the league and he
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: was like, yeah, well, guys know the books out on
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: him force them to his left right, so overload the
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: right side. And obviously Andy Reid they knew that the Chiefs.
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: He came in next year, he was perfect going to
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: his left, So now teams only do that anymore. Right,
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: it's all about getting up the middle on my homes.
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: So it's just funny where it's like, I'm with you, Chad,
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: there's there's gonna definitely moves. These guys will make the
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: just pieces, right, But at the end of the day,
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: it's like the Eagles run maybe four or five plays
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: honestly running the ball all season and no one can
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: stop it. Like that's how dominant they've been. So I
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: agree with you. There's gonna be things they're gonna try
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: to do and adjust in different looks, but at the
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: end of the day, it's like, you know, you just
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: can't stop great and this all you hope to do
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: is slow it down a little bit. So that's interesting
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: part of this one. It's like the already knows Spags
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: knows he can't stop this Seagull's rushing team. If he
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: can limit them in the red zone, that's gonna be
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: the key to this game.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: Well, let's hope that the Eagles and Chiefs combined for
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: less than two hundred and eighty five and a half
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: rushing guys Simon. The upcoming Super Bowl reminds me of
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: an old parable, the story of the scorpion and the frog,
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: who sit at the bank of a river. The scorpion
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: asks the frog to carry him across, but the frog resists,
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: fearing the scorpion will sting him as they cross. The
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: scorpion argues he'd never do that since it would doom
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: them both. So the frog agrees and begins swimming across
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: the river with the scorpion pawn his back. But sure enough,
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: midway across the river, the scorpion does sting the frog,
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: spelling disaster for them. Both philosopher ers argue about the
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: lesson of this tale as they grapple with the nature
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: of good and evil, But to me, the takeaway is simple.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Neither the fraud nor the scorpion we're able to make
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: rational decisions nor operate in their own best interests because
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: they have never experienced the breathable, policible comfort of our
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: beloved sponsor, Tommy John. You don't have to cross the
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: metaphorical river of daily routine with inferior underwear. You need
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: not sink to the muddy bottom of discomfort in scratchy
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: discount loungewear. Tommy John provides safe passage to the most
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: comfortable essentials, the softest shirts, the highest quality underwear, everything
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: you need to live better and act smarter. And with
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: a special sale for our listeners, frosting this river to
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: a better life just got easier. So come down to
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: the water's edge of luxurious comfort and join the thousands
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: here raving about Tommy John. Simon, why will you be
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: wearing more Tommy John in twenty twenty.
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: Five because comfort is king Right.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: Now, you can shop Tommy John dot com slash favorites
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: and get twenty five percent off your first order. Save
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites, Simon. The inevitable
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: question is which one of us is the scorpion and
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: which one of us is the frog.
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: M I'm probably the scorpion.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: I think you are too.
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's be honest.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: I think one hundred percent. I don't even think. I
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: don't even think there's a question. Matt Mitchell is killing
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: it with these. He is on a roll. Yeah, Like
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: I just look to these.
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: Honestly, that gave me a view in it what I've
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: been like you reading me a bedtime story chat, And
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: I don't know, I don't know how I feel about it.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: Really, I feel like, you know what, When I was
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: reading it, I did feel like I was reading it
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: in sort of the voice tone and temper that I
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: used to read stories to my kids, and I felt
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: like I was killing it. The stage is set for
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl fifty nine and all the bets to come.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: That means now is the perfect time to upgrade to
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: an Action Pro subscription. It's the only way to get
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: real time pick alerts from our experts like our guests
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: Chris Raybun and Sean Kerner, plus all the tools you
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: need to turn a profit betting in twenty twenty five.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: Right now, new subscribers can get forty dollars off a
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: year of Action Pro at Actionnetwork dot Com slash s B.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: That's forty dollars off for the full year, so you'll
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: be covered for the Super Bowl, March Madness, Baseball, NBA,
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: and even next college football and NFL season. Don't wait.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Visit Actionnetwork dot Com slash SB to get forty dollars
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: off Action Pro. Here's a prop like Everyone's opinion on this.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: Here's a prop on Nick Giffen raised when he was
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: on with Simon and I last week and then also
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: discuss on Propapalooza Part one that he did with Grant Nieffer.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: And I know, like the in the touchdown projections coroner,
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: Xavier Worthy has consistently been undervalued. So what about a
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown plus under five and a half receptions?
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Which Nick Giffen loved when we were discussing it last week.
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: Yeah, anything Nick Giffin does, I approve. I love the
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: idea because I mean Worthy can score a touchdown with
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: a design Russia attempt, so he has he already has
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: a clear have to do this. But I think, yeah,
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: his reception prop it's also a bit high. He's explosive,
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I think it makes a ton of sense.
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: And of course it came up, but that's that's a
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: genius idea.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's completely contrary, right, like because also there's a
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: lot of conversations like Xavier Worthy is going to be Simon,
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if you've noticed this, Like Xavier
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Worthy is going to be one of those players who
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: people want to bet on MVP. That isn't Jalen Hurt,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley, Patrick Mahomes right, because that's what always happens.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: You want to bet on that receiver, you know, who
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: has longish odds, who's the recipient of all the passes
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: as a contrarian play to the quarterback, who is most
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: likely to win it could be.
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: Also, I don't hate it just because we've already seen
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: the Eagles. As good as they are, they do have
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: some guys that are young in experience, and you saw
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: that with Terry McLaurin right, one mistackle and he broke it,
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: and the same can be saying here with Worthy. It's
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: like the type of defense that, yeah, if you make
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: one guy miss the way the Eagles play aggressive, especially
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: with their safeties, he could easily break one. But we've
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: seen the Eagles. They have some really good, great corners,
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: so you know if they put Quinny on Mitchell on him,
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: his night might be over and then you're good to go. Though,
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: you got the one catch right touchdown and this comes through.
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: So I definitely love the mind game of this one,
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: where it's like any Reid will find a way to
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: get this guy the ball, but it's all about the
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: matchup so he gets the wrong corner on him, he
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: just won't get the touches. So yeah, that feels a
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: little hot in me honestly, having him over five and
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: a half receptions. It's attack the Eagles, you attack the
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: middle of the field, right, We've seen that with the
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: tight ends these last couple weeks. So interesting that that's
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: that high.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: That was at about four to one last week when
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: Giffen talked about it on the show Ray Bond. You
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: and Stucky talked a little bit about Dallas Goddard on
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast on the six Pack. Stucky's been
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: making bank on Dallas Goddard during the playoffs. Do you
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: have any thoughts on his reception totals which are getting
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: kind of expect kind of high, and on his yardage totals. Again,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: he's been a guy who throughout the playoffs, everyone at
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: Action has been betting what do you like or not
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: like about his current prices?
• 31:15
  Speaker 5: So I think his reception prop is is too high,
• 31:18
  Speaker 5: Like you're betting him to get five catches. There's a
• 31:21
  Speaker 5: lot of ways that that could backfire. You know, Eagles
• 31:25
  Speaker 5: explosive plays in either facet that are not Dallas Goddard
• 31:29
  Speaker 5: Eagles to just have one of those games where they
• 31:32
  Speaker 5: pass on their you know, like twenty five times, which
• 31:36
  Speaker 5: is a very common thing for them. There's a lot
• 31:39
  Speaker 5: of ways that could go wrong. So I would rather
• 31:40
  Speaker 5: go with the yards because I think the Chiefs they've
• 31:44
  Speaker 5: given up the most yards to tight ends, like that's
• 31:46
  Speaker 5: they struggle with tight ends. Goddard. It's the most likely
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: to get a matchup on the weakest cheeks defender on
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: the field, whoever that might be Bolton, you know, whoever,
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: in coverage. So I think the yardage is better. But
• 32:00
  Speaker 5: and going back to the Worthy thing, I think what's
• 32:03
  Speaker 5: interesting with Worthy is and the reason why his reception
• 32:06
  Speaker 5: number is higher is because Andy Reid loves screens. In
• 32:10
  Speaker 5: the postseason, into two games, Worthy's had five screens thrown
• 32:14
  Speaker 5: to him total. Those are usually free catches, but he's
• 32:16
  Speaker 5: actually only caught three of the five. Usually you're expecting
• 32:19
  Speaker 5: him to catch five of the five. So I think
• 32:21
  Speaker 5: that's why the books are, you know, at that five
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: and a half number for Worthy, But five six catches
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: is a lot. It's easier to get when you get screens.
• 32:29
  Speaker 5: But got her to get five is that's that's kind
• 32:31
  Speaker 5: of a stretch. You know, I think the median is
• 32:34
  Speaker 5: closer to four, but so I would go yardage if
• 32:36
  Speaker 5: I'm trying to to bat Goddard at this point.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah. What's interesting about those screens, and it speaks to
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: what you talked about earlier, Raybund, is what the Chiefs
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: have done is turn themselves into a quick passing screen,
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: long handoff offense. Maybe it's because of how they're being
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: played downfield, but also because I think Andy Reid is
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: just trying to account for that that is offensive line. Yeah,
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: it's just completely trash. There's nothing else he can do.
• 33:07
  Speaker 5: Yeah, and he has some speed now, he has some
• 33:09
  Speaker 5: speed at the receiver positions with Brown and Worthy, so
• 33:11
  Speaker 5: now they can make it work. I mean, if you
• 33:13
  Speaker 5: think about their receiving corps, Hopkins, Juju and Marky's Brown,
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: like they're kind of like afterthoughts, but like these guys
• 33:20
  Speaker 5: are all like thousand yard you know, former number one
• 33:24
  Speaker 5: receivers not even that long ago. But and then we're
• 33:27
  Speaker 5: these kind of the key cogs. So they have they
• 33:28
  Speaker 5: have enough pieces now to kind of make it work
• 33:30
  Speaker 5: with the quick game.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but when you name all those players Hopkins, Juju, Brown,
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: and you compare them to aj Brown DeVante Smith. Like,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: there's so many places in this game where the roster
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: is overwhelmingly talent wise in favor of the Eagles. The
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: only thing the Chiefs have happens to be the two
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: most important things, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
• 34:03
  Speaker 5: Yeah, because even Spags, Spags and Fangio, I mean Fangos,
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: no Spags. But he's up there, he's up.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Oh No, I listen to me. This game is about Spags,
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: Read and Mahomes. That's why you bet I'm the Chiefs
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: At the end of the day. I want to get
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: into the sides and the totals a little bit, you know,
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: at the end, before we get out of here. But Crooner,
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: give me your next best prop.
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'm going to go with this, Will any
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: player have one hundred plus rushing yards?
• 34:33
  Speaker 6: I'm going to go with no at plus two ten.
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: And obviously Saquon Barkley is a serious threat to this prop.
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty much in line with his his rushing yard prop.
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: I have it around one hundred and ten. Uh. I
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: agree with raybun earlier saying, you know, it could be
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: a little bit high still, but at the end of
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: the day, I'm giving him around a fifty eight percent
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: chance or you know, minus one forty to clear one
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: hundred yards. But if he stays under that, like, who
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: the hell else is going to clear this number. Both
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: quarterbacks have rushing upside, but neither one has cleared one
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: hundred yards of the season. The last time either one
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: has cleared it was Jalen Hurts back in Week twelve,
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: three seasons ago, back in twenty twenty two. You know,
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: Cream Hunt might need thirty plus carries to clear one
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: hundred yards. So I'm showing about, you know, a five
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: percent chance a non Barkley player clear's one hundred yards.
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: But if you think about it like that five percent
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: of the time most of the time, like Barkley's also
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: clearing hundred yards. So you know, in that situation you'd
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: have two players clear hundre yards. So in my sim
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: I have it closer at about you know, sixty one
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: percent chance we do see a player, probably Saquon Barkley,
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: clear it. So I have the fair price of no
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: player closer to you know, plus one fifty five to
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: not clear one hundred yards. So I'm showing quite a
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: bit of value on this. No at plus two to
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: ten right now.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: I am I'm not surprised at all that the pattern
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: we are seeing develop here is lower rushing totals, which
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: is in line with expectations. The Chiefs are doing something
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: to put the Eagles in a disadvantageous position where they
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: have to come back. Raybon, what's your last bet?
• 36:24
  Speaker 5: So I actually think that the the theme is just
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: offensive numbers in general are inflated. So for this one,
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: I'm going with combined passing touchdowns for both teams under
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: two and a half at plus one point fifty. And
• 36:41
  Speaker 5: this may seem scary, but if you look at the
• 36:44
  Speaker 5: Eagles playoff games under two and a half passing touchdowns
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: combined has Hitten all three, they've had two exactly in each.
• 36:52
  Speaker 5: Kansas City even had a playoff game where they only
• 36:56
  Speaker 5: had one combined passing touchdown in that in that used
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: to game. So four out of the five playoff games
• 37:02
  Speaker 5: between these two teams thus far, you've gone under this number.
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: And then you look at it for the season, and
• 37:11
  Speaker 5: Kansas City about seven of eighteen and the Eagles eleven
• 37:16
  Speaker 5: of eighteen, so it's about a fifty to fifty shot.
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: So I think this should be a lot closer to
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: even money. I have it at about about plus one
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: twenty five fair odds, so I bet this to about plus
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: one thirty here. But you know, just going off to
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: pass data, it's about even money. And if you look
• 37:34
  Speaker 5: at Hurts one or fewer passing touchdowns eleven of eighteen starts,
• 37:38
  Speaker 5: he has no three touchdown games, so Mahomes has about four,
• 37:44
  Speaker 5: so he could ruin it. But there's a very good
• 37:46
  Speaker 5: chance that you know, with the Eagles red zone defense strength,
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: and you know the way the Eagles like to do
• 37:51
  Speaker 5: their business with the touch push and whatnot, that you
• 37:54
  Speaker 5: stay under this number. And I think it's being its
• 37:57
  Speaker 5: being undervalued here because who wants to bet under you know,
• 38:01
  Speaker 5: two and a half touchdowns with passing touchdowns with Mahomes
• 38:04
  Speaker 5: with nobody, So yeah, give you under two and a
• 38:07
  Speaker 5: half combined passing touchdowns at plus them fifty.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: Well. Also, this is perfectly correlated to your first prop,
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: which is over one and a half field goals by
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs. If you believe that the Chiefs will kick
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: more than one and a half field goals, then part
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: of you has to believe the Patrick Mahomes is not
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: going to throw multiple touchdown passes, which makes this a
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: perfect combination.
• 38:31
  Speaker 6: And he can also run.
• 38:31
  Speaker 5: He's running a lot more. You know, he showed he'd
• 38:33
  Speaker 5: even you know, take a designed run around and go on.
• 38:36
  Speaker 5: So there's a lot of different a lot of different outs.
• 38:38
  Speaker 5: But yeah, in general, I think offensive numbers are are
• 38:41
  Speaker 5: inflated in the market, and you know, probably waiting too
• 38:45
  Speaker 5: closer to the end of the week some of the
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: other prop shows we'll do to do some player props
• 38:48
  Speaker 5: because those are going to keep going up. But that's
• 38:51
  Speaker 5: kind of the theme for I think both of us
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: is just kind of finding these inflated offensive numbers pass
• 38:55
  Speaker 5: or run.
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: I love this point too, because both these teams player
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: and stuff out on offense, which is super conservative and safe,
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: and we know the deal when you get in the
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: red zone, that literally can kill the game, right if
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: you make a red zone turnover. So one of my
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: favorite bets of correlates with this is Eagles over one
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: and a half rushing touchdowns. It's minus one thirty. A
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: lot of books I'm seeing Bethtew six five is already
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: up to minus one forty. I still love that price
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: for that prop, just because I think Eagles, you've seen
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: it time and time again, Like it can be second
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: and eight thirty eight and the Eagles are running on
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: that down if they can just get it to two yards,
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: and they usually think the defense will dropped back. So
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: I think there's a lot of opportunity to playing that.
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: I agree with Chris that you know, both these teams
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: when they do get down there, they do play conservative,
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: like they just don't want to turn the ball over.
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: That's just both been their remo because they've just believe
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: in both their defenses. So I do love this play,
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: and there's a lot of ways to correlate it with
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: a lot of other props.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Well, look, these are all props that are tending towards
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: a game in which we expected to go under, and
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: that under now is anywhere from forty eight and a
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: half to forty nine and a half. Most places forty
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: eight and a half be three. SIS five is still
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: at forty nine and a half. I guess that in
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: any other game it makes sense. But if you look
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: at the past Super Bowls, the second half for five
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: six touchdowns scored with the Chiefs, all in games other
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: than that Bucks game where I think they were losing
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: by a touchdown. By ten points. How do we factor
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: in the explosive nature of sort of unexpected outcomes in
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: a Super Bowl? Simon, I mean.
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: It's tough to say. Like a lot of a lot
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: of the players that talk about it say it's because
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: of the halftime, right, They're just they're not used to
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: going from ten minute halftime to thirty minute halftime. And
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: that's just you know, the human element of that. That's
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: a big deal. Right, That's a lot of really high adrenaline,
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: especially heading to the game the first half, and now
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: you're just relaxing for thirty minutes. And to me, both
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: these teams should know how to handle, right, I mean
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: they were literally played against the other just two years ago,
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: and like to your point, the Chiefs they've been the
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: best team. I mean maybe, I mean, I guess Tom
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: Brady was great at it two, but they're incredible second half.
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: I Mean every time Mahomes is down, you know, ten
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: points or whatever going to halftime in the Super Bowl,
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: he comes out on fire. And even that Eagles game,
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: you go back and watch it, I think he scored
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: three straight touchdowns and then kicked the field goal at
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: the end to win it all. So yeah, that's that's
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: an interesting point you bring up chat. It's it's clear
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: effected the defense is more so than the offense. We've
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: seen both teams usually come out on fire in the
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: second half rather than the first half.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: The first half total right now, I'm just checking here
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: in the Action Network app is twenty four, twenty three
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: and a half or twenty four and a half depending
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: on where you look. Does anybody have an opinion on
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: the first half total knowing there might be some cookiness
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: in the second half, and for the ranking for the
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: for the record, like luck rankings Kroner we had Nick
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: on there is no advantage luck rankings wise in this
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: game for the total or the side for that matter.
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I do tend to lean towards the under here.
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: We've been talking about it. Both teams play pretty methodically.
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: They run the ball a ton. Maybe we won't see
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: a Saquon Barkley sixty plus yard rushing touchdown here, and
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: it actually takes them, you know, seven or eight more
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: plays to score if they do. But yeah, I'm leaning
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: towards the end. That's an interesting take to just take
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: the first half under. I might consider that, especially, you know,
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: a number like twenty four. If you can get that
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: key number, I think that makes a ton of sense.
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: But I think if anything, yeah, I'll be on the
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: under here.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: All right, Well that's what was gonna be my next question, Raybon,
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: I know where you stand. Tell the listeners, tell the
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: viewers your opinion on the side, total winning team, whatever
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: it is.
• 43:02
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the chiefs of the right side. I
• 43:04
  Speaker 5: think the Eagles have the better roster. I do agree
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: with that. But I look at the way Spagnolo has
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: been able to scheme against top rushing attacks in the
• 43:13
  Speaker 5: last two Super Bowls just you know, like those are
• 43:17
  Speaker 5: bad Kansas City run defenses that he used, you know,
• 43:20
  Speaker 5: kind of disguises and he just kind of pulled different
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: things out of his hat, and you keep thinking he's gonna,
• 43:24
  Speaker 5: you know, run out of ways, and he keeps figuring
• 43:26
  Speaker 5: it out. And I think the real key matchup here
• 43:29
  Speaker 5: is but I like, I think Saquon will get his
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: you know, like as he has. Oh yeah, you're not
• 43:34
  Speaker 5: gonna fully stop Saquon. So but I think the key
• 43:36
  Speaker 5: for Spags is he can do a lot of things
• 43:39
  Speaker 5: pre snap that just makes Jalen Hurts think, you know,
• 43:43
  Speaker 5: a lot of different looks blitz is from all over
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: the place, switching into different fronts in the run game,
• 43:49
  Speaker 5: and you know coverage wise that you're gonna challenge Hurts
• 43:52
  Speaker 5: to make checks at the line of scrimmage over and
• 43:54
  Speaker 5: over and he's he's gotten better at that. But still
• 43:57
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't say he's you know up there. Yeah, So
• 44:00
  Speaker 5: I think that's really the key. And on the other side,
• 44:02
  Speaker 5: I think we saw that the even the Commanders moved
• 44:05
  Speaker 5: the ball against the Eagles, it was just the turnovers
• 44:08
  Speaker 5: they couldn't overcome. You know, you're not gonna probably get
• 44:10
  Speaker 5: that with the Chiefs. You know, I would be surprised
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: if the Chiefs turn it over more than maybe once
• 44:16
  Speaker 5: if that, And so you're gonna be able to just
• 44:18
  Speaker 5: kind of dink and dunk and you'll probably have to
• 44:20
  Speaker 5: kick some field goals. But at the end of the day,
• 44:23
  Speaker 5: I trust bags and I trust my home. So rolling
• 44:26
  Speaker 5: with the Chiefs minus one and a half. And if
• 44:29
  Speaker 5: you want to take like an exact like the last
• 44:31
  Speaker 5: two Super Bowls have been exactly three point three points
• 44:36
  Speaker 5: in favor of the Chiefs too, so you can take
• 44:39
  Speaker 5: like an exact or but I wouldn't I wouldn't hesitate
• 44:42
  Speaker 5: to kind of take something in that real like Chiefs
• 44:44
  Speaker 5: by one to six or something like that too.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: Coner, you hinted under a strong opinion about anything.
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: Well, I tend to I'm going to have, like, you know,
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: fifteen to twenty props, so I kind of see what
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: I'm going to be rooting for and what correlates and whatnot.
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: But I'll probably pass on, you know, the side, but
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: I think, yeah, the under waiting to see I'm curious,
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: do you guys think it'll go back up go down?
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: But I feel like waiting on the under would make
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: sense because you're going to get more money to come
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: in towards the end, So just trying to time what
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: the best number would be. Maybe like you just recommended
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: looking at the first half, but I feel like when
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: you're waiting for the under, you can just kind of
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: see if the market will go up once we get
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: a little bit more public money in on the over.
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Simon, I'm curious your thoughts on that.
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And I'll just start with Chris's point, either team
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: to win by exactly three right now, I bet through
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: six five, Yes, is plus four hundred, So that's a
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: nice exact little bet. And you know, we've seen mahomes,
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: you know, other than that crazy overtime usually likes to
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: win these games by three, right, That's that's the their
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: mo They play the clock, they let it run and
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: they kick the field and they win. Or if they're
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: up by three, they'll just run the clock out. So yeah,
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: it's it's a pretty good number right now. Over at
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: Beth through six five. Yeah, my view of a chat was,
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: I'm I was with Sean. I thought I could be
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: patient on this total, and you know, I'm having a
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: good time over the weekend, and I get you a
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: message that some respected money was coming in on the
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: under and a lot of books were about to move it.
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: I had to run around try to find as many
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: fourty nine and a half as I could, and it's gone, Like,
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: I know, you just said you think it's a Betris
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: six five. I think it's just a glitch on our app.
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: But I'm looking at their book right now it's forty nine.
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: So oh really, Okay, if you could still find the
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: four and a half, I definitely grab it as a
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: key number. But it's pretty insane. The books took a
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: stand on this just because Sean just broke it down.
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: Like all the money right now early is on the
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: over that's gonna be four times the amount comes Sunday.
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: Like the Joe public betters, they haven't really bet this
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: game yet. They're they're just you know, waiting until that
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: next paycheck come on Friday and they'll lay it into
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: the Super Bowl year. So to me, if you missed
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: a four and a half, be patient, Like the book,
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: they might move it through the key number of forty
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: eight and a half, but I would be shocked, just
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: because they have no need to. Like the amount of
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: money pouring in right now on the over, it just
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: has to offset this professional mind that is coming on
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: this under. So yeah, I would say, if you missed
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: the forty nine and a half, be patient. I do believe
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: we'll go back, because right now it's overwhelming the out
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: of money right now on the over. So the fact
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: they have moved that a couple forty and a halfs
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: to a couple of respective books, it is pretty shocking,
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: all right.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: So many more super Bowl props from Raybond, from Kerner,
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: from Nick Giffen from Grant Need for our final two
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: pack of Super Bowl prop live shows is tomorrow, February fifth,
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: there'll be another tandem of thirty ish minute live shows
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: on the Action Network YouTube channel. Try to catch these lives.
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: The numbers get crushed, they just do. Like I couldn't
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: watch live last week. I was traveling by the time
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: I could listen to the show. Trying to get some
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: of these numbers not that easy. So listen live if
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: you can, and good luck if you can't. Just like
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: last week. Part one will be at four pm Eastern
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: with Nick and Grant, Part two with Raybaon and Kerner
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: at six pm once again. Wednesday's Super Bowl prop shows
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: four pm Eastern, six pm Eastern Action Network YouTube page.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: Want to make extra money daily from your sports betting?
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: Simon knows I'm always trying to find ways to take
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: sports betting to the next level. That's why I'm excited
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: to tell you about edge boost, the financial platform that
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: pays you cash back to wager. Edge Boost is an
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: online bank account that pays you for every deposit with
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: the edge Boost Visa debit card, you receive up to
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: half a pet percent cash back on all your sportsbook,
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: daily fantasy site and casino transaction that transactions. That's free
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: money back in your pocket for doing what you're already doing.
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: It's a no brainer. Plus, your edge Boost debit card
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: starts with a two hundred fifty thousand dollars daily limit
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: and will never be declined for gambling activity. They've got
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: built in tools to help you stay responsible and there
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: are absolutely no hidden fees or minimum required balances stop
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: leaving money on the table. Visit edgeboost dot bet today
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: to learn more and sign up. That's edgeboost dot Bet.
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: I gotta say I used it used this past week.
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: Not only was it super easy, but then I did
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: get the cash back in my account. It was great.
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: I was so excited. We'd announced after the conference championship
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: games that we were doing our Super Bowl fifty nine
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: Get your prop on the board at bet three six
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: y five contest. This is a contest that I started
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: back in my ESPN days when we were doing the
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: Behind the Bets podcast with bookmaker Bob Scooty who ran
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: all the Boyd Gaming casinos as the bookmaker at in
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas, and he was the regular co host for
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: the show both when I was at ESPN and in
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: the early days. Are the Favorites here with Action and
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Scooch would open it up. We'd have listeners send in
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: their quippiest yet bedible props and Scooch would put him
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: on the board. Bet three sixty five carries on the tradition.
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: We had so many entries. Matt Mitchell, You're going to
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: give us some honorable mentions and the finalists stick around
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: and you'll get an interview that me and Simon did
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: with the winner of the contest, Matt Mitchell. Hot damn.
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: This is fun.
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Chad.
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: I will note before I begin that's that this began
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: so long ago. I can remember listening to these episodes
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: at my normal terrible nine to five human job, and
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: I would submit every year, and mine might have been
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: the worst of all.
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: So like, I do want to.
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: Stress that my selections here of what I liked and
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: what I submit to be through six five is not
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: a judgment on those that did not make it. I'm
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: sure they were far better than the ones that I
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: did ten years ago. Okay, First of all, I want
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: to call out two that played into the hands of
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: our sponsor, Tommy John, who again is in no way
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: affiliated with us, but it was good pandering, and I
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: love good pandering.
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: The first is Sam.
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: Householder, whose prop was big sacks total sacks over hundred
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: three and a half and our beloved super fan Chloe
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: Chris Acopolis give me that D, which was Devide Smith,
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: DeAndre Hopkins and the Big D himself, Dallas Goddard all
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: over their receiving yards.
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: Ball tis standing.
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: Yep, So no big sacks or give me that D.
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: You're free to bethos yourself under whatever title you'd like. Okay,
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: So now here are the official honorable mention. So these
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: were ones that just missed the cut of being submitted
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: to BET three sixty five also from our friend Chloe,
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: Go go Goddard, Dallas Goddard, five or more catches, sixty
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: or more yards a touchdown and Super Bowl MVP. This
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: one from Pierre's Eton. This is Big City Lights one
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: touchdown reception each for Hollywood Brown, Dallas Goddard, and Paris Campbell.
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: A little play on the three.
• 52:26
  Speaker 7: Of their names.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: That's fantastic.
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty good, pretty good.
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: It's a shame that Paris Campbell's like non viable entity
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: in the in the playoffs, but it's very clever. Points
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: for being clever. Michael Freeberg had two that play into
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: the storyline that it is both Saquon Barkley and Cooper
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: Dejane's birthday on Super Bowl Sunday. First is the Eagles
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: birthday bash. Saquon two touchdowns and a Cooper interception. And
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: this one, which I found very clever, Saquon's twenty eight
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: saque to record twenty eight run plus receiving yards in
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: each quarter.
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: Ooh that is good.
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we have a Oh this was Gideon Martin. I'm
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: sorry Gideon that you did not win, but you did
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: submit to that I really enjoyed. First is winning hurts,
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: Losing hurts. Eagles money line hurts does not win MVP.
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: And one of my very favorites a return from Wentz.
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: Ye came Carson Wentz to attempt a pass.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: Ah, well, look that was a big one. Ray Bond
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: and Stuck you had a long conversation about, you know,
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: would someone other than a quarterback attempt to pass. I
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: feel like we should have gotten bet Maybe we can
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: get bet three six five to do an alternative one
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: just for that, because that's pretty good and that's going
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: to be one that I think a lot of people
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: would be interested in.
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: Dave Helfen submitted failed to the Chiefs. The Eagles win
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: on a go ahead score with under thirteen seconds remaining
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: in regulation. I'll special fuck you to me the person
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: reading it. So thanks Dave, It's true. Stephen Contrerez, another
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: great one, Obi Juan Mahomie and Kwan Solo, Sequon and
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: Mahomes to combine for four hundred plus passing, rushing and
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: receiving yards.
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: Well, that one feels really interesting. Kerner and Raybon, can
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: you do top of your head projections? Saquon, you both
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: have like one between one oh five and one ten
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: rushing Mahomes. I don't know what you have for his
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: passing yard.
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: Of general.
• 54:41
  Speaker 5: Fifty so that's uh, that would be about three.
• 54:44
  Speaker 6: Sixty men Mahomes and others Berkley.
• 54:46
  Speaker 5: Yeah, and then you have about thirty rushing for Mahomes.
• 54:49
  Speaker 5: That's that's three ninety, and then another like ten to
• 54:52
  Speaker 5: fifteen receiving for Yeah, I guess the median would be
• 54:56
  Speaker 5: around four hundred ish.
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: That's incredible. Wonder how much research, because you know, it
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: was fun about these back in the day. People would
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: send research, they would send spreadsheets, they would send images
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: about how they were doing it. So I wonder if
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: this guy went back and did a lot of research
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: because people usually do that. It's fascinating.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: Oh, I still got nine thousand page emails with people
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: showing me their math, and I want to be like,
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: I can't stress this enough. Bet three, six, five will
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: do the math. You don't need to do the math there.
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: They're not going to take your word for it. How
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: this should be priced?
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: I love it, It's great. This one is very important.
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: Before I get to our six finalists, I do want
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: to congratulate longtime listener Brian Goldberg and his son Gerald,
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: who I think of every time I let one of
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: you use extended profanity. Sorry earmuffs, Gerald, but I want
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: to thank you because your submission allowed me to go
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: on this quick rant.
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: This one was.
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: Called pick licks lix. Will there be a pick six
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: in Super Bowl Lix? And I just want to say
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: that probably the simplest example of the decline of American
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: sports in general and are descent into academic and artistic
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: malaise more specifically, can be found in the NFL's treatment
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: of their beloved Super Bowl logo and what used to
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: be our annual national embrace of Roman numerals. Because we
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: used to have original designs for each of these Super Bowls.
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: Everyone on this show is old enough to remember those.
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: They were incredible, They were bright, and they were original.
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: They represented a time and a place, which is kind
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: of what the Super Bowl is. Every season is its
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: own thing. But then, because the NFL is a multi
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: billion dollar organization run with the artistic vision of a
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: Connecticut law firm, it's now delivered like a decade and
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: a half of the most soulless paint by number of
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: monstrosities of a logo. But worse of all, they've encouraged
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: the use of normal, non Roman numerals throughout the media,
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: which you'll never in the description of one of these podcasts,
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: and you know, people will complain, well, I don't know
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: Roman numerals. That's the whole goddamn point is every year
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: you get a brief lesson on Roman numerals, your dad
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: explains them to you, or a trusted adult or a
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: Roman and you'll learn a little bit about it, and
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: we say, isn't that kitchy and fun? And then we
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: go back to using regular ass numbers for everything else.
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: So I just wanted to thank you the Goldbergs for
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: letting me go on that free framet.
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, thanks Goldbergs. That was really Great.
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: Okay Now who are six finalists. These were submitted to
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: Bet three sixty five and their trading team selected the winner.
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: Number one Damien Glick, who was one of at least
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: forty people to submit a prop called Hurts So Good
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: aka the Ellen Camp. This one was Jalen Hurts two
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: hundred and fifty plus yards, fifty plus rushing yards, two
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: plus passing touchdowns, a rushing touchdown, Eagles money line, and
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: Hurts MVP. So basically, the Hurts So Good is the
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts career game.
• 58:18
  Speaker 5: They so good.
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: The second most common title is from Pierce Eton, who
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: had the best version of it, which is all Barkley,
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: no bite, Barkley fifteen or more rush attempts under one
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: hundred yards rushing, no touchdowns, which I felt like a
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: very Sean and Chris style prop.
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: Yes, totally, they basically gave. They basically just gave that yep.
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: Number three from John Reevey. Oh Say Kwan you see
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: saquon rushing yards verse is the national anthem length in seconds,
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: as Sakwan's total is currently at one fifteen and a
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: half somewhere around there, and Nashal anthem is somewhere around
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty one hundred and twenty one seconds.
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: So a very good prop, very cleverly named number four
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: Ray Hogan the three peat three for the Chiefs to
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: three peat by exactly three points on their third successful
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: field goal in the last three minutes of regulation.
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: Big time trying to play every time he does another one.
• 59:33
  Speaker 5: We thought he's made his all time best.
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: And look at this.
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: Unbelievable number five from someone just called Lesteif this is
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: the three cheat Philly to have three or more accepted
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: penalties than the Kansas City Chiefs.
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: Ah, I get it, I get it the favoritism.
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: Indeed, indeed, all right, our last one, which will be
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: revealed in full in the interview you're about to hear
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: between Chad and the winner, Jason Side. I will tease,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: but we'll tell you that as a reminder to find
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: this winning submission and bet it yourself. Just go to
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: bet three sixty five and look under super Bowl fifty specials.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: You will find this bet and loads more just like
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: it again bet three sixty five under super Bowl fifty specials.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: And now I'll turn it to you.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: Chad.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: It is time to reveal the winner of our Get
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: your prop up on Bet three sixty five's Super Bowl
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: Big Board contest. I feel like this prop. I don't
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: want to reveal it yet, but I know this prop
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: and its name is something that you can appreciate.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: I'm hoping it's it's Egles related.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: Then it will be Eagles related.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: Let's bring in.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: Let's bring in the winner of the prop contest. His
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: name is Jason Society from Claremont Lord.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 7: He is a.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: Control systems guru at Universal Studios in Orlando. Jason, congrats,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: welcome to the show, brother.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 7: Big guys, thank you. I'm happy to be here.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: Where does this honor rank? Do you think is sort
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: of your history of awards and accomplishments.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 8: Let's see, besides the birth of my daughter, in marrying
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 8: my wife is right behind that at number three.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: Those are barely two things that might qualify as being
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: better than this. I do want you to reveal the
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: name of the prop and tell people what it is,
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: and then I want to get into how you thought
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: of it and all that kind of good stuff. But
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: let's reveal the name of the prop that people can
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: go bet at Bet three sixty five right now.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 8: Yeah, So the prop name is I'm always Runny in Philadelphia.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 8: And then the prop is for the Eagles that have
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 8: over two hundred and eighty.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: Rushing yards, which would be a Super Bowl record, right
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: it will be a super record record. And right now
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: with bet three sixty five you can get that. I
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: think it's a plus sixteen hundred. You can get that
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five. Simon and always Sonny prop.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: That might be the most apt prop we've ever had
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: for this show.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 5: If life pushes you down, you gotta push back.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 3: If you're dump a bunch of lemons, you gotta take
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: those limits and stuff them down somebody's throat until I
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 3: see yell them, especially where that's an amazing record. I
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: had no idea it was that many rushing yards. So
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 3: I definitely love to play sixteen to one, come one,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: give us twenty to one. Bet better odds to you,
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: But yeah.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 5: I can't.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: You know, it's funny. We felt like that was pretty
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: good given the circumstances. Jason, how did you think of
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: the prop?
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 8: Well, so, a good prop really needs three things, right,
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 8: You need to catch your name, You need something you
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 8: can't really bet it's like a normal bet. And a
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 8: third thing, you need to have something that's you know,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 8: it's probably gonna have plus odds because, as you both say,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 8: the book is not your friend.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 3: They are here that issue. I'm definitely gonna betting this
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 3: because that's the best way for the Eagles to win
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: right now is for Saque to be running. So I'll
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: be happily going to be making this bet chat, especially
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: at those odds.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: As you and I have both said for the past
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks, we're on the Chiefs here. So the
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: best way to invest in the Eagles at a high
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: return with relatively low investment is a bet like this
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: because it does mean the Eagles are dominating the game. Jason,
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: do you have a betting interest in the game?
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 8: Have a Super Bowl ticket on the Eagles, and so
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 8: I will be rooting for the Eagles. One thing with this,
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 8: so I was looking at the Eagles box scores this year.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 8: They've hit this number twice, first time in the regular
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 8: season against the Rams, and then they hit it again
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 8: in the playoffs against the Rams.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 7: I'm hoping the Chiefs also can't stop sake one.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: How long you've been betting, I've been playing.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 8: Poker for a long long time, and so you know
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 8: a sports gambling was right right along with that.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 7: So you know, since I was a kid, probably awesome.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: We'll listen. We're thrilled you submitted it. There were great entries.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: This was the runaway hit Matt Mitchell. You know he's
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: the arbiter of all these things and it takes a
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: lot to mate Mac Mitchell. Laugh a little bit and
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: be tickled.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 3: Do you think it would kill you to say good
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 3: job Matt?
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: So Jason Siety, Claremont, Florida, Always running in Philadelphia plus
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: sixteen hundred. I'm Bet three sixty five right now. Thanks
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: for listening to the Favorites. Thanks for playing the contest.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: I hope this cash is I hope you make bank
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: on Super Bowl Sunday.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 7: Well, thank you, guys. I appreciate it.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: three six y five and now new Bet three sixty five.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: Favorites deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: to get one hundred and fiftyen bonus bets. Those bonus
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At bet
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: three six five. Must be twenty one or older in
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: President Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: or eighteen or older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler one eight hundred bets off in Iowa.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon or I will return with
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: YouTube page eleven am Eastern Thursday to talk our Super
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: Bowl best bets with Brandon Anderson. Download us from Spotify,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: Apple Pods, wherever you get your POD's rate, review, subscribe,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: a gift until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: hundred gambler