Latest / Independent Voter Podcast / Running for President as an Independent - EP5
Transcript
- 0:01S1: Olas media.
- 0:03S2: Welcome to the Independent Voter podcast from Independent Voter Project.
- 0:07S2: We're going to expand a little bit a new era
- 0:09S2: of independent voter news that the journalists just don't cover,
- 0:13S2: where we have these debates on a national level, really
- 0:17S2: taking on issues so that people have more educated disagreements
- 0:21S2: with each other. Let's just explain how the process really works.
- 0:32S2: Welcome back to the Independent Voter Podcast. This is the first,
- 0:36S2: I think, podcast where we're really talking about our new series,
- 0:39S2: how it really works. Um, this is something we're going
- 0:43S2: to be doing every month covering an issue. Obviously, Independent
- 0:47S2: Voter has covered issues like election reform for a long time,
- 0:51S2: really since our existence about 14 years. One of the
- 0:55S2: issues that always comes up, you always hear it no
- 0:57S2: matter where you're at, is like, first of all, we're
- 1:00S2: the lowercase I independent voter project, right? We don't pretend
- 1:05S2: to be for an independent party or candidates or pretty
- 1:08S2: much party agnostic, right? One thing you always hear on
- 1:11S2: if independents are so upset, why don't you just form
- 1:14S2: your own party? Or if if they don't like the
- 1:16S2: Republican or Democrat Party, why don't they just run as
- 1:18S2: an independent? So in our first How It Really Works series,
- 1:23S2: we thought it would be, you know, good to go
- 1:25S2: in and say, okay, well, what does it really take
- 1:28S2: to run as an independent for president? Right. People say
- 1:32S2: all the time they should run for independent. You know,
- 1:34S2: they're you know, we have 300 million people in this country,
- 1:37S2: and we end up with these two candidates that are
- 1:39S2: divisive and have, you know, 70% of the electorate want
- 1:43S2: to hear from at least a third voice. So why
- 1:46S2: why doesn't somebody run as an independent? Karen McCormick, who is,
- 1:52S2: you know, very involved in a lot of this, and
- 1:55S2: some of you who listen to our first episode have
- 1:57S2: already heard from her. Those of you in the reform
- 2:00S2: space are probably aware of Kara. As somebody who has
- 2:04S2: been an enormous driver of election reform, um, is here
- 2:09S2: with us today. She helped us with this series. Um,
- 2:13S2: and I want to, you know, welcome you again, Kara.
- 2:16S2: So say hi. And, uh, did you find this interesting
- 2:22S2: when we really sat down to say, well, what would
- 2:25S2: it take to run as an independent?
- 2:28S3: Hi, Chad. Yeah, it's great to great to join you.
- 2:30S3: I mean, you know the answer. And and I do
- 2:33S3: get asked the question all the time. And I have
- 2:35S3: gotten asked this question for, you know, more than 30 years.
- 2:38S3: How come nobody runs for president of the United States
- 2:40S3: as an independent candidate? And the answer is, you know,
- 2:43S3: after you do the research, that running as an independent
- 2:46S3: is extremely difficult, if not impossible. And that is why that,
- 2:50S3: you know, so very few people have ever even attempted
- 2:53S3: it and that none have won in modern history. Um,
- 2:57S3: so we've written this or we're working on this new
- 3:01S3: series called How It Really Works. And our first, uh,
- 3:06S3: project is running for president as an independent. How it
- 3:08S3: really how it really works.
- 3:11S2: Yeah. Well, our most recent example, I think the closest
- 3:14S2: thing we have to, you know, a high profile, quote
- 3:18S2: unquote independent candidate, right, was someone who started off as
- 3:23S2: running as a Democrat. Right. RFK ran for the the
- 3:27S2: Democratic Party nomination, then saw he wasn't going to be
- 3:32S2: successful there, then went to run as an independent. And,
- 3:35S2: you know, now he's joined a Republican administration. One thing
- 3:39S2: I always want to qualify this is forget the politics,
- 3:42S2: forget the personality. We're talking about the process. It doesn't
- 3:44S2: matter who who it is, right? Kara, you've had experience,
- 3:48S2: you know, going back, you know, on on a lot
- 3:51S2: of different fronts, right? You were very active in Americans Elect, which,
- 3:55S2: you know, got ballot access in all 50 states, which
- 3:58S2: essentially was just a mechanism for somebody to be able
- 4:02S2: to run as an independent. Right?
- 4:04S3: That's right. Yeah. We it was only 41 states. Um,
- 4:08S3: just just for the record, we were definitely on track
- 4:10S3: to get all 50 states to get ballot access in
- 4:12S3: all 50 states. Um, back in 2012 for the Americans
- 4:17S3: elect candidate. But we, um, ran out of steam.
- 4:20S2: Well, 41 states, that's 82% of the states. That's like
- 4:24S2: a B.
- 4:26S3: It's pretty awesome.
- 4:27S2: That's a good solid B, you know.
- 4:29S3: That's one of the reasons, you know, that is one
- 4:31S3: of the reasons. Thank you, thank you. Um, there are
- 4:35S3: rules in every single state. All of the rules are different.
- 4:38S3: It's incredibly complex. Um, and it's incredibly expensive. And I
- 4:43S3: think it's incredibly hard to do, especially with, with the
- 4:47S3: example of Americans elect. We didn't have a candidate. The
- 4:52S3: idea with that was to get ballot access for an unnamed, uh,
- 4:56S3: Independent candidate for president, and to have that person get
- 4:59S3: nominated through an online convention and then award whoever won
- 5:05S3: the online convention with the the ballot access to to
- 5:08S3: then run for president and compete against the Democrat and
- 5:12S3: the Republican.
- 5:13S2: So like, you know, putting that into context with, you know,
- 5:17S2: this most recent example we brewed up with RFK, right?
- 5:20S2: So a lot of people go, well, why did he
- 5:22S2: even try to run as a Democrat in the first place? Right. Well,
- 5:25S2: we kind of saw. Right. What happened? Um, you know,
- 5:30S2: the process. Yes. Is it public? Yes. It's public in
- 5:34S2: the sense that, you know, we have this primary process
- 5:38S2: and really didn't start until 1912. Most people don't know
- 5:41S2: that is that we didn't have a primary process for
- 5:44S2: president until 1912, right at the turn of the century
- 5:48S2: when the great Progressive ERA, right when we really created
- 5:51S2: primaries to get the selection process out of the back room. right? Yeah.
- 5:57S3: And you know, what's really interesting about that is that
- 5:59S3: that's also when all the, um, citizens initiatives and citizen
- 6:03S3: democracy and all the constitutions got amended around that same
- 6:06S3: time to give citizens more power to collect signatures, to
- 6:09S3: put issues on the ballot, to go before the voters.
- 6:12S3: That all happened, you know, a hundred years ago, too.
- 6:14S2: Right. And this was all in an effort because and
- 6:18S2: this is the conflict we still have today, right? Political
- 6:20S2: parties are private organizations, right? I'm not saying that in
- 6:24S2: a pejorative sense. Whether it's good or it's bad, the
- 6:27S2: reality is they're private organizations, right? But our election processes
- 6:32S2: are public, so that that's what creates the conflict here.
- 6:37S2: The primary election process was try to bring out some
- 6:40S2: of that backroom decision making that was really made by
- 6:43S2: the party bosses into the public eye. So the public
- 6:47S2: had more influence on the decisions that were made. Right?
- 6:51S3: Well, here, here I mean.
- 6:54S2: Right. And so that's the goal and that's the conflict.
- 6:56S2: But I think RFK became aware pretty quickly. Right. Despite
- 7:02S2: building up, you know, a grassroots support and having this
- 7:05S2: stuff that the institution, the private institution of the Democratic
- 7:09S2: Party wasn't exactly thrilled about RFK running for their nominee.
- 7:13S2: I think, you know so well.
- 7:15S3: Particularly since there was an incumbent president. Correct. An incumbent
- 7:19S3: president from from the the Democratic Party. Exactly. And and
- 7:23S3: you betcha. You know, the the DNC was totally ready
- 7:26S3: for a multi state strategy to either keep, um, RFK
- 7:31S3: on the ballot where they thought it would help them
- 7:33S3: or remove him from the ballot where they thought it
- 7:35S3: would hurt their candidate.
- 7:36S2: Right.
- 7:36S3: And.
- 7:37S2: You know, and in fairness, this exact this would happen
- 7:40S2: if it was on the Republican side, too. Right. And
- 7:43S2: so what RFK did is he go, okay, well, I'm
- 7:45S2: going to take a stab at doing it as independent. Right.
- 7:49S2: And I mean, we saw some of this stuff, right? Uh,
- 7:51S2: those who are following the news, like RFK, they challenged
- 7:55S2: his ballot access in New York and tried to move
- 7:58S2: it like the DNC, you know, had all, you know,
- 8:02S2: they went hard after and challenging his first being on
- 8:07S2: the ballot. And then when they thought it was in
- 8:09S2: their self-interest, his ability to remove himself from the ballot
- 8:13S2: after he joined, you know, the Republican side.
- 8:17S3: This is RFK talking about how he got out of
- 8:20S3: the race because he didn't want to be a spoiler
- 8:23S3: for Donald Trump.
- 8:24S4: Many months ago, I promised the American people that I
- 8:27S4: would withdraw from the race if I became a spoiler.
- 8:30S4: A spoiler is someone who alter the outcome of the
- 8:33S4: election but has no chance of winning. In my heart,
- 8:37S4: I no longer believe that I have a realistic path
- 8:39S4: to electoral victory in the face of this relentless, systematic
- 8:44S4: censorship and media control. So I cannot in good conscience
- 8:50S4: ask my staff and volunteers to keep working there long
- 8:54S4: hours or as my donors, to keep giving when I
- 8:56S4: cannot honestly tell them that I have a real path
- 9:00S4: to the white House.
- 9:01S3: Yeah. I mean, he he spent a lot of time,
- 9:05S3: you know, fighting challenges in Hawaii, in Nevada, in North Carolina,
- 9:10S3: in new Jersey, in Maine, in in New York. The
- 9:12S3: one that you were talking about. He, um, they tried
- 9:15S3: to get him off on a technicality, saying that he
- 9:17S3: didn't really live in New York. And he had filled
- 9:20S3: out his paperwork saying, you know, this is my address
- 9:24S3: in New York. And they said, you're you're not from
- 9:26S3: New York, you're from California. And they kicked they they
- 9:28S3: were successful. Um, I think I think I saw that
- 9:33S3: in 2024, in New York, there may have only been
- 9:37S3: two candidates on the presidential ballot, which is the first
- 9:41S3: time that that had happened, you know, in forever, where
- 9:45S3: literally there was only two candidates on the ballot. They're
- 9:48S3: so good at keeping people off the ballot in in
- 9:50S3: New York.
- 9:51S2: Yeah. So like, let's just summarize all this just as
- 9:54S2: it relates to ballot access, which is just one issue, right?
- 9:57S2: And that became a big issue in Rfk's attempt, you know,
- 10:00S2: to run as an independent. And Carrie, you had an
- 10:04S2: extraordinary experience. You got to 41 state ballot access and
- 10:07S2: 41 states, right. And but put this into context because
- 10:13S2: you see how much money is spent on presidential elections. Well,
- 10:16S2: if you're a Democratic nominee or a Republican nominee, your
- 10:20S2: costs are zero.
- 10:23S3: Well, it's not quite zero just to give them some
- 10:24S3: credit like they do have to pay a filing fee. Oh,
- 10:27S3: but but it's nothing like it's nothing like if you
- 10:30S3: want to do it as an independent, it's I think
- 10:33S3: we've calculated about 865,000 signatures nationwide. And you have to
- 10:38S3: collect them in the period of about 180 days overall.
- 10:42S3: But there's deadlines for everything. You know, every state has
- 10:45S3: has it different. And you know, with Americans elect, I
- 10:48S3: think it was between 15 and $20 million that it
- 10:51S3: cost us to do that. So the disparity for an
- 10:55S3: independent candidate versus, uh, either the Democratic nominee or the
- 11:01S3: Republican nominee, that that access to the general election ballot
- 11:06S3: is super expensive if you want to do it independent
- 11:09S3: from one of the two major political parties.
- 11:12S2: Uh, so that I mean, that's that's one issue, ballot access. Right?
- 11:16S2: That it's a big issue.
- 11:19S3: And it's been an issue forever, like it's been an issue.
- 11:22S3: We were looking back, um, we got back as far
- 11:25S3: as 1980. There was the ten term Congressman John Anderson
- 11:29S3: from Illinois, who ran as an independent after he lost
- 11:32S3: the Republican primary to Ronald Reagan. And he got all
- 11:36S3: kinds of hung up in places like, you know, Ohio and,
- 11:40S3: you know, many different states. And so what happens is
- 11:42S3: all of a sudden you're trying to get on the
- 11:44S3: ballot in Ohio, or you're in danger of not getting
- 11:47S3: onto the ballot in Ohio. And then there's all kinds
- 11:49S3: of other repercussions based on which states you do get
- 11:53S3: on and which states you don't get on. And also
- 11:55S3: the parties make calculations about where they're going to fight
- 11:59S3: based on, you know, they'll fight you in a in
- 12:01S3: a swing state like Pennsylvania, for example.
- 12:04S2: Right, that, you know, you need to be on and
- 12:07S2: that you know, that they've calculated that an independent is
- 12:10S2: likely to hurt them in the, you know, in the
- 12:13S2: context of the two party, you know, fight that's going on.
- 12:17S2: That's right. But ballot access, that's just one. Right. So
- 12:20S2: that's just one one issue.
- 12:22S3: That's kind of like yeah, that's kind of the first one.
- 12:24S2: Yeah. And Carrie, you kind of broke these down though
- 12:26S2: into like seven kind of buckets of big issues. And
- 12:31S2: so like okay we got ballot access. Let's go in
- 12:34S2: the next one that people don't really talk about right. Okay.
- 12:37S2: You can talk about the money it takes the ballot
- 12:40S2: access and all this stuff. But like just the political infrastructure,
- 12:45S2: like getting a consultant, having a database like Explain. Explain what?
- 12:52S2: You know, that kind of process, like when you're trying you.
- 12:55S2: I mean, you've done a lot of work of building
- 12:57S2: an infrastructure outside the two parties. Established infrastructure. Like, what
- 13:02S2: are the hurdles there? So what do you face when
- 13:05S2: you're a presidential candidate and say, I'm going to do
- 13:07S2: it on my own?
- 13:09S3: Well, I think if you were going to do it
- 13:11S3: on your own, maybe one of the first things you,
- 13:13S3: you know, you'd need to raise money, right? So you'd
- 13:15S3: need a sophisticated national voter database. Um, you would need some, uh,
- 13:23S3: voter mobilization. You would need, um, you need data. You
- 13:27S3: would need. And so in the end, you need fundraising
- 13:31S3: networks that you could go back to, like, you know, networks,
- 13:35S3: networks of people. And you'd also need a really experienced
- 13:37S3: campaign staff. So, um, the Democrats and the Republicans are far, far,
- 13:42S3: far down the road when it comes to these databases.
- 13:45S3: The Republicans use, um, a voter database called the Data Trust,
- 13:50S3: that is the leading provider of voter and electoral data
- 13:53S3: to the Republican candidates and to conservative campaigns.
- 13:56S2: So what you're saying, though, like, okay, I'm running as
- 13:58S2: a Republican now. I just get access, right?
- 14:00S3: I get I call them up and you say, hello,
- 14:02S3: data trust. I'm a Republican running in the 27th district
- 14:06S3: of California, and I would like to, um, pay a
- 14:10S3: subscription to your trust and get access to all of
- 14:14S3: your data and all of your organizing tools.
- 14:17S2: And I'm a.
- 14:17S3: If you're on the Democratic side. Oh, yeah. And I'm
- 14:21S3: a and if I call data trust and said, hey,
- 14:23S3: data trust, this is this is Kara McCormick. I'm running
- 14:25S3: as an independent for Congress in the first Congressional District
- 14:29S3: in Maine. They would tell me to go pound sand.
- 14:34S2: And so and then the Democrats, you know, obviously, there's
- 14:36S2: a lot of news about NGP van. That's the big one.
- 14:41S3: That's a huge one. That is $44 million. We looked
- 14:45S3: at this and we found $44 million just in the
- 14:48S3: last political cycle going, you know, was paid to NGP
- 14:52S3: van from all these federally regulated campaign committees. So here's
- 14:56S3: an NP van promotional video that I found that gives
- 14:59S3: you an idea of the kind of services that they
- 15:01S3: provide to to Democrats.
- 15:03S5: Campaigns are social. Whether it's knocking on doors, making phone
- 15:09S5: calls or going to events. For years, NGP van has
- 15:13S5: helped you not only knock those doors and make those calls,
- 15:16S5: but we've helped you knock the right door and make
- 15:19S5: the right call. And now we're combining the power of
- 15:22S5: the van with the power of Facebook. Unfortunately, although it's
- 15:26S5: obvious that friends respond better to friends, there hasn't been
- 15:29S5: a way for campaigns to use those friendships in a
- 15:32S5: targeted way. That's why we created social organizing. Social organizing
- 15:36S5: is the only social media application that seamlessly connects Facebook,
- 15:41S5: the most widely used social network, to the van, the
- 15:44S5: most widely used voter and membership database for Democrats and progressives. So.
- 15:49S2: You know, that's their prerogative. Their private organizations, NGP van's
- 15:53S2: a private business. They can make those decisions. But that right.
- 15:56S3: Without a doubt. But we're.
- 15:57S2: Not.
- 15:58S3: The fact remains that there's no like NGP van or
- 16:00S3: data trust for an independent candidate.
- 16:02S2: Right. Which makes sense because there's no institution there for
- 16:06S2: an independent candidate. So, you know, there's another issue. Um,
- 16:11S2: I mean, we can go we can go on all
- 16:13S2: day just on each one of these issues. But, you know,
- 16:16S2: we don't have that much.
- 16:17S3: Scene Actblue have you ever seen Actblue. And there's a
- 16:20S3: there's a counterpart for that. So there's fundraising, right? Right.
- 16:23S3: So there's one for the for the Democrats. That's called
- 16:26S3: Actblue PAC. They raised $3.8 billion for Democrats just in
- 16:31S3: the last political cycle. And then on the Republican side,
- 16:35S3: there's Winred and they raised 1.68 billion for Republicans, um,
- 16:41S3: in the cycle. And they have, you know, all the
- 16:42S3: fundraising technology. And everybody gets in on it, whether it's
- 16:46S3: the Republican National Committee or the National Republican Senatorial Committee
- 16:50S3: or the National Republican Congressional Committee, they're all using these
- 16:55S3: fundraising tools and these fundraising networks and these lists, and
- 16:58S3: there is no sort of independent version of a fundraising
- 17:03S3: network that if you're running as an independent candidate for president,
- 17:06S3: that you can just tap into, like either one of
- 17:08S3: these real world examples. This is really what's happening. This
- 17:12S3: is how this really works.
- 17:14S2: Okay. So now you're you're a candidate. You're running as
- 17:16S2: an independent. You say, I don't care, I'm going to
- 17:19S2: run this marathon. I'm going to jump over these hurdles. Right.
- 17:22S2: And now you're Ross Perot or you're Gary Johnson, or
- 17:26S2: you're Ralph Nader or Jill Stein or somebody, you know,
- 17:28S2: somebody running outside the system. And somehow, someway, you've managed
- 17:33S2: to gather momentum. Right. And, you know, look at Gary Johnson, 2016.
- 17:40S2: I mean, he was he was pulling over 10% without
- 17:43S2: any media coverage and without really any of that support.
- 17:49S2: Then what happens? Right. This is the kind of the
- 17:51S2: third bucket you put together. And what it really takes is,
- 17:53S2: is like, I mean, you title it the spoiler effect.
- 17:57S2: So explain that, explain that phenomenon.
- 18:02S3: Well, the spoiler effect basically puts voters into this strategic
- 18:07S3: voting mindset when they go into the ballot box. And
- 18:11S3: it's it's it often sort of forces them to choose
- 18:15S3: between the lesser of two evils because they're afraid of
- 18:18S3: spoiling the election. So instead of voting for the candidate
- 18:22S3: that they genuinely prefer, like, say, you really, really like
- 18:26S3: have a thing for Gary Johnson or for Ralph Nader
- 18:28S3: or for Jill Stein, or for whoever it is who's
- 18:31S3: on the ballot. You really like that person the most,
- 18:34S3: but you feel pressured to choose one of the two
- 18:37S3: major party candidates because they, one of the two major
- 18:41S3: party candidates, will have the best chance of blocking the
- 18:44S3: person that you don't like the most, right? People are
- 18:48S3: frequently discouraged from supporting independent candidates because of the spoiler effect. And, uh,
- 18:54S3: you know, it it even discourages independent candidates from running
- 18:59S3: in the first place.
- 19:01S2: Right. And I mean, well, I'm sure you could go
- 19:03S2: on IBM and find a million articles on on issues
- 19:07S2: related to, you know, plurality voting, voting, which a lot
- 19:11S2: of you may say, you know, that's a wonky terminology
- 19:13S2: or stuff, but, you know, the reality is we have
- 19:16S2: a what's called a winner takes all system, right? You
- 19:18S2: don't actually have to get a majority to win. And
- 19:20S2: so the spoiler effect, when you have a credible third
- 19:24S2: party candidate, I mean, I've seen all the time on,
- 19:26S2: you know, I've worked on senatorial campaigns where you have
- 19:29S2: polling that shows the independent candidate versus the Democrat wins
- 19:35S2: by 20%, the independent versus the Republican wins by 10%.
- 19:40S2: But then when you put it into the election and
- 19:42S2: then you get the coverage and then the the party
- 19:45S2: vehicles motivated and then the media which portrays the The
- 19:50S2: Independent as the spoiler. I mean, you put them all
- 19:54S2: together and then the independent drops from beating them both
- 19:57S2: to literally 5 or 6%. Right. It's it's a powerful.
- 20:02S3: They they get it is it is they get they
- 20:05S3: get um you know dismissed as wasted votes. They get
- 20:08S3: called spoilers. It's like it's it's so, uh, so hard
- 20:13S3: to gain traction and any kind of electoral viability when
- 20:17S3: you're being called the spoiler and when people who want
- 20:21S3: to vote for you are thinking that their votes are
- 20:23S3: going to be wasted or. I remember, um, I worked
- 20:26S3: on a race in Maine where it was a vote
- 20:30S3: for this person is actually a vote for that person. Right.
- 20:33S3: You know, like a vote for the independent is really
- 20:36S3: a vote for Trump or a vote for the independent
- 20:38S3: is really a vote for Harris.
- 20:40S2: Yeah.
- 20:40S3: And you know, like.
- 20:41S2: Yeah.
- 20:42S3: That's really a vote for that person, but. Well, you.
- 20:45S2: Were telling me about that. You know, I think you
- 20:46S2: saw it on John Oliver or something like, you know,
- 20:49S2: from years ago when you were researching for this story.
- 20:52S3: I did find a really great, uh, clip from last
- 20:56S3: Week Tonight. Uh, and it ends with a screed from
- 21:00S3: Gary Johnson, who was an independent candidate in 2016, talking
- 21:04S3: about the spoiler issue again.
- 21:06S6: But the best known of the lesser known candidates are
- 21:09S6: clearly Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
- 21:13S6: In a poll just last month, more than a third
- 21:16S6: of young voters said they are considering voting for one
- 21:19S6: of them, so they are worth taking seriously. And before
- 21:22S6: we go any further, we should probably address the common
- 21:24S6: critique that third party candidates can siphon off votes and
- 21:27S6: potentially wind up electing an ideological opponent, and there is
- 21:31S6: some historical precedent for that. From Teddy Roosevelt's 1912 run,
- 21:35S6: which arguably helped to elect Democrat Woodrow Wilson to Ralph
- 21:38S6: Nader in 2000, winning nearly 100,000 votes in Florida, a
- 21:41S6: state which al Gore famously lost by just 537. But
- 21:46S6: third parties are a little touchy about that whole spoiler tag.
- 21:49S6: Just watch Gary Johnson respond after it's brought up.
- 21:52S7: What do you guys make of the idea that you
- 21:55S7: are a spoiler candidate?
- 21:57S8: It's just that it's just it's horrible. Why would you
- 22:00S8: even say that? We're giving people a chance to vote
- 22:03S8: for something, as opposed to the lesser of two evils?
- 22:06S8: We're not spoilers. We are the first vote. So I
- 22:10S8: guess we should drop out. Is that what you're saying?
- 22:13S8: Is that. Is that your editorial here?
- 22:14S6: Johnson's anger is understandable. Just dismissing third party candidates as
- 22:18S6: spoilers shuts down debate. And while the argument that the
- 22:21S6: only thing that stops Trump is a vote for Hillary
- 22:24S6: Clinton is a powerful one, so is the argument that
- 22:26S6: people should vote for the candidate who most closely shares
- 22:29S6: their values?
- 22:30S2: I think that that clip's a pretty good segue into
- 22:32S2: the next the next issue of debate exclusion. I mean,
- 22:36S2: Gary Johnson was really that was, you know, full disclosure
- 22:40S2: as somebody, you know, I was hired. I was hired,
- 22:44S2: I have a communications company. I've worked for all kinds
- 22:46S2: of campaigns. I've worked for campaigns on the right, campaigns
- 22:50S2: on the left, and I've worked for third party campaigns. Right. Um,
- 22:54S2: I work for Independent Voter Project. I'm not the Independent
- 22:57S2: Voter project. I love the Independent Voter project. Um, but
- 23:02S2: one of the things I had the privilege of doing
- 23:05S2: in 2016 was I was contacted and said, hey, we
- 23:08S2: got Gary Johnson. You know, former Republican governor is running
- 23:12S2: as a libertarian. Can you help do communications and and
- 23:16S2: raise raise funding for this, you know, third party candidate
- 23:20S2: effort and said, sure. The issue that came up where
- 23:24S2: we got literally millions of people to sign up was
- 23:28S2: a campaign we called 15 for 15. It was, hey,
- 23:32S2: will you donate $15 so that we can get Gary
- 23:36S2: Johnson to 15%, right? Why does that matter? Well there was,
- 23:42S2: you know, the whole debate process kind of up in
- 23:45S2: up in the air right now. But the Commission on
- 23:48S2: Presidential Debates said that a candidate can only participate if
- 23:52S2: they are polling at 50% of the electorate. So nobody,
- 23:58S2: I think, has more knowledge and more, you know, uh,
- 24:02S2: a detailed view of this issue than yourself and your
- 24:05S2: work with the great late Peter Ackerman and level the
- 24:08S2: playing field. But can you, can you explain to some
- 24:12S2: folks what you know, your fourth bucket debate, exclusion and
- 24:16S2: the 15% rule, what that means to a candidate who
- 24:21S2: is not running as a Democrat or a Republican.
- 24:26S3: So the 15% rule is, um, the the rule that
- 24:30S3: is promulgated by this bipartisan organization called the Commission on
- 24:34S3: Presidential Debates, known as the CPD. It's managed by the
- 24:40S3: two former leaders, usually of the two major parties, and
- 24:44S3: they have controlled who gets on the debate stage since
- 24:47S3: going back to 1987. And they use really strict criteria, um,
- 24:53S3: notably this 15% polling threshold requirement that you just spoke about, Chad.
- 24:58S3: And so what that means is a certain number of
- 25:01S3: weeks before the election, the Commission on Presidential Debates looks
- 25:05S3: at five major polls. They decide which polls that that
- 25:08S3: they're going to look at. And if the third party
- 25:11S3: candidate at that time is not polling at more than 15%
- 25:15S3: of the national electorate in at least five different polls
- 25:19S3: held about six weeks before the election, they are barred
- 25:23S3: from the debate stage by the Commission on Presidential Debates, which,
- 25:27S3: you know, is controlled by the two major, major parties.
- 25:31S3: And that is why you haven't seen anyone, an independent
- 25:34S3: on the debate stage since going back to 1992. And
- 25:38S3: even then, um, Ross Perot would not have even qualified
- 25:42S3: for those 1992 debates had the current rule been in
- 25:45S3: existence at that time. In that case, Clinton and Bush
- 25:49S3: both agreed to let Perot onto the debate stage, and
- 25:52S3: at that time, too, it was the most watched debate
- 25:56S3: in the history of, uh, of American elections. And the
- 26:01S3: and Ross Perot, of course, went on to become the
- 26:03S3: most successful ever independent candidate, um, when he got 19%
- 26:07S3: of the vote. Right after that, they changed the rules
- 26:10S3: at the Commission on Presidential Debates, and they put in
- 26:13S3: this 15% rule. And no independent presidential candidate has been
- 26:16S3: on the stage ever since then. Here's a blast from
- 26:19S3: the past. This is Ross Perot announcing that he'll run
- 26:23S3: for president on the Larry King Live show. If the
- 26:26S3: people gather signatures to put him on the ballot.
- 26:30S9: And everybody's saying, why are we in this mess? First
- 26:32S9: thing I'd like for you to do, all of you,
- 26:33S9: is look in the mirror. We're the owners of this country.
- 26:37S9: We don't act like the owners. We act like white
- 26:39S9: rabbits that get programmed by messages coming out of Washington.
- 26:42S9: We own this place.
- 26:43S10: Is there any scenario in which you would run for president?
- 26:46S10: Can you give me a scenario in which you'd say, okay,
- 26:49S10: I'm in.
- 26:50S9: Well, number one, I don't want Taylor.
- 26:52S10: I know, is there a scenario?
- 26:54S9: You know, if you're that serious, you. The people are
- 26:58S9: that serious. You register me in 50 states, and if
- 27:02S9: you're not willing to organize and do that, then this
- 27:07S9: is all just talk. Wait, wait, wait. Larry. Are you
- 27:10S9: saying to the ordinary folks, if you're dead serious, I want.
- 27:15S10: To see.
- 27:15S9: Some sweat. I want to see some sweat. Why do
- 27:18S9: I want to see some sweat? I said it earlier.
- 27:20S9: I want you in the ring.
- 27:21S2: Well, so, you know, it's almost ten years ago now.
- 27:23S2: I think Alexandra Shapiro led the lawsuit. You know, where
- 27:27S2: Peter Ackerman was supported, you know, in yourself with level,
- 27:31S2: the playing field. I mean, what you probably submitted thousands
- 27:34S2: and thousands and thousands of of pages of evidence, and
- 27:38S2: had estimated that what it would cost $250 million just
- 27:44S2: to create. To pay for enough exposure to have the
- 27:48S2: potential to get to 15% in these polling. But also,
- 27:54S2: you know, you mentioned their strict 15% rules. Yeah. Well,
- 27:58S2: it's strict in the sense that you have to get 15,
- 27:59S2: but then it's also subjective to where you have three
- 28:03S2: Democrats and three Republicans sitting on a board that decide
- 28:08S2: which pollster are you going to, you know, use to determine,
- 28:13S2: you know, with this, they get to determine what questions
- 28:17S2: are asked and how. Right. So, for example, a pollster
- 28:21S2: could go out and say, okay, who is your favorite
- 28:24S2: candidate among these three? They can go and say, hey,
- 28:28S2: who is your candidate favorite candidate among these eight? Or
- 28:32S2: they could ask, do you support the Republican candidate? Entity.
- 28:36S2: Do you support the Democratic candidate? Well, if you don't
- 28:40S2: support them, then do you support one of these ten candidates?
- 28:44S2: I'm only giving that examples because polling can be so misleading. Right.
- 28:49S2: And so when you go back to a commission saying, well,
- 28:51S2: here's how we're going to select who's going to come in,
- 28:53S2: it's anybody who's gotten an average of 15% in these
- 28:57S2: five polls. Well, the poll may have been conducted in
- 29:00S2: a way that like by the time somebody is able
- 29:04S2: to say that they would support a third party candidate. Right.
- 29:08S2: They're already like halfway down the poll, and then that
- 29:11S2: candidate's been mixed in with like eight other people. And
- 29:15S2: whether it's overt or it's not, is it? It's kind of,
- 29:20S2: you know, like you said, it's a strict rule, but
- 29:23S2: you could pretty much make it so that it's impossible.
- 29:27S2: Is that right, Cara?
- 29:28S3: I mean, it's very, very hard to do in five polls,
- 29:31S3: particularly when you've been, you know, called a spoiler. You're
- 29:35S3: kicked off of several ballots, all the other things that
- 29:37S3: you're having to go through this 15% rule is, you know,
- 29:41S3: it can be sort of the death knell for for
- 29:44S3: an independent candidacy. And yeah, you would have to be
- 29:46S3: we we figured out that you would have to spend
- 29:48S3: about and this was ten years ago, about $280 million, um,
- 29:55S3: getting your name recognition up so that you would be
- 29:58S3: able to compete with the two major party candidates in
- 30:02S3: a national poll on that level. So you would really
- 30:05S3: have to have your name recognition be be very, very high, um,
- 30:09S3: and have people know who you are because they're not
- 30:11S3: going to vote for you to, you know, in a
- 30:13S3: poll and say that they're going to vote for you
- 30:15S3: if they don't even know your name. Right. You have
- 30:17S3: to be known to be liked.
- 30:20S2: Yeah. Well, I mean, like we're using Gary Johnson because
- 30:22S2: it's the last, like, you know, candidate that almost made
- 30:25S2: the debate stage. I mean, he was very close to 15%. Um,
- 30:30S2: but like.
- 30:31S3: He yeah, he was so close that the kind of
- 30:33S3: funny business that you're talking about when you're looking at
- 30:35S3: polling and weighting and sample sizes and timing and all
- 30:39S3: of those things, you know, can definitely, uh, if you're
- 30:42S3: right on the edge of, like, you know, and the
- 30:45S3: margin of error. So what if you have 15%, but
- 30:49S3: with the margin of error, it's only 13.5.
- 30:51S2: But at the same time, the polls were saying that
- 30:53S2: more than 70%. So even people that wanted a Democrat
- 30:57S2: candidate or Republican candidate said, yes, we want at least
- 31:02S2: a third voice on the stage, right?
- 31:04S3: Of course, of course, people.
- 31:06S2: Despite.
- 31:06S3: That, there's this like there's this star chamber of people
- 31:09S3: called the Commission on Presidential Debates who make that decision
- 31:12S3: a private corporation.
- 31:14S2: Yeah, they could very easily make the rule. There's got
- 31:17S2: to be a third person, because 70 something percent of
- 31:20S2: the electorate want at least a third voice, and that
- 31:23S2: third person is the highest, highest polling, you know, third
- 31:27S2: party candidate of anybody. Right. That would be a way
- 31:29S2: to guarantee at least a third voice and support, What?
- 31:34S2: 70 something percent of the population wants, including Democrat and
- 31:39S2: Republican voters. But they could adopt that rule. Right. But
- 31:44S2: they decided not to. Right.
- 31:47S3: So because they are they are completely incented to always have,
- 31:52S3: you know, systemic exclusion of independence. This is you know,
- 31:57S3: this is how it really works.
- 31:58S2: Okay. And so now we get past the debate issue
- 32:01S2: and somehow, um, you know, some somehow the candidate running
- 32:06S2: for president as an independent still in the game. Right.
- 32:09S2: And then we run into your next bucket, which is
- 32:12S2: the Electoral College inequality. So explain that one, Cara.
- 32:18S3: So to win an election, a presidential candidate has to
- 32:21S3: get a majority of at least 270 out of 538
- 32:27S3: electoral college votes. Most of the states have um, as
- 32:32S3: Chad was talking about what's called a winner take all system,
- 32:36S3: and that means that whoever wins the most votes in
- 32:40S3: a particular state gets 100% of that state's electoral college votes.
- 32:46S3: And this creates a total disadvantage for independence, because Electoral
- 32:51S3: College votes are not awarded in proportion to popular support.
- 32:56S3: So even an independent candidate who say that person got 25%
- 33:00S3: of the vote in all 50 states, a quarter of
- 33:03S3: the people went and voted for that person. They would
- 33:06S3: wind up with zero Electoral college votes, right?
- 33:10S2: This is a much broader conversation. I think there's probably
- 33:13S2: lots of areas of disagreement, even among the election reform
- 33:16S2: world in the independent film world. But the short of
- 33:20S2: it is, I mean, I think we have a lot
- 33:21S2: of stuff we've written about this over the years. This
- 33:23S2: may be how it really works. Uh, episode just on
- 33:27S2: the issue of the Electoral College here in the future.
- 33:30S2: But like you think about over the years when the
- 33:33S2: Electoral College was first designed, right? Presidential candidates didn't actually
- 33:40S2: run to get the votes of voters. And I mean,
- 33:43S2: this is even more esoteric. You're actually not voting for
- 33:45S2: a presidential candidate when you vote for president. But that's
- 33:48S2: a whole nother story. You know, longer story after this debate. But,
- 33:53S2: you know, you were supposed to have people that represented
- 33:56S2: the district that had, you know, in the Federalist Papers
- 34:00S2: that had, quote, no political ties like they were supposed
- 34:03S2: to be, just people that weren't involved in politics, that
- 34:07S2: went to this, quote unquote, electoral college to cast a
- 34:10S2: vote for their district, casting that vote among a bunch
- 34:14S2: of other people representing other districts. Right. And it was
- 34:18S2: supposed to be a spirited discussion and stuff well, over
- 34:21S2: the years. And, you know, as as things got more
- 34:24S2: institutionalized and centralized and then the parties kind of took over, right?
- 34:28S2: We've gotten to this place where, aside from a few
- 34:30S2: states like Nebraska, like California or Texas. They send all
- 34:38S2: of these electors on behalf of the major party, right?
- 34:43S2: They're not, you know, why would a state like California,
- 34:48S2: which has 55 electors last time, say, if you get 50%
- 34:54S2: plus one of the votes, you get all 55. But
- 34:57S2: if it was, you got 50% minus one vote. You
- 35:01S2: get zero. Right. Right. That's when you're talking about an
- 35:05S2: individual voting rights issue. I you know, I think that's
- 35:09S2: something that's very under-discussed, but also it affects the whole
- 35:14S2: incentives of the presidential process itself. Like, why would any
- 35:19S2: candidate spend any time in California or Texas if you
- 35:24S2: already know 100% of those electoral votes are going to
- 35:27S2: go to one side or the other? Now, put it
- 35:30S2: in the context of an independent candidate. Say, well, what?
- 35:36S2: You have to go and win all the votes in
- 35:39S2: one in in a given state, you can't pick up,
- 35:42S2: you know, some votes here in California and pick up
- 35:44S2: a few in Florida and pick up a few in Kansas. Kansas,
- 35:48S2: because all the states have really delegated that process over
- 35:52S2: to the parties and said whichever party wins gets all
- 35:56S2: of them.
- 35:58S3: Right. And so, like, you have a real world example
- 36:00S3: of this in the series that we did, which is
- 36:02S3: Ross Perot. Ross Perot, he captured 20 million votes. He
- 36:07S3: got 18.91% of the of the popular vote. And that,
- 36:11S3: you know, was an unprecedented total at the time for
- 36:15S3: any non-major party candidate. And, Chad, I wonder if you
- 36:18S3: can answer the question, how many Electoral College votes did
- 36:22S3: Ross Perot end up with after getting 20 million votes
- 36:25S3: from Americans?
- 36:27S2: Uh, probably zero.
- 36:29S3: That's right. He did not win a single state outright
- 36:32S3: under the current system, and he got zero for all
- 36:35S3: of his trouble.
- 36:36S2: All right. So we got Electoral College inequality. And then
- 36:39S2: I mean we've already kind of touched on this campaign
- 36:41S2: finance disparities. I mean, besides the donations you raise as
- 36:45S2: a candidate, you have PAC networks, institutional donors. I mean,
- 36:50S2: we can have a whole how it works series on
- 36:52S2: on political party communications. These are special rules that political
- 36:56S2: parties can spend money and communicate with their voters. Right.
- 37:01S2: That if you're outside the system, you don't get these
- 37:04S2: special rules. Right. And then your seventh bucket on internal
- 37:09S2: party controls. Right. Even if you're running within the party,
- 37:13S2: some of you may remember when Bernie Sanders was very successful, um, in, uh,
- 37:18S2: was that 2016, he actually won the state of Virginia.
- 37:22S2: The party gave the delegates to Hillary Clinton. The Bernie
- 37:27S2: people go to court, right, and say, wait a second.
- 37:31S2: The party rules say that Bernie won. He should get
- 37:34S2: the delegates from the party. And what did the court say?
- 37:36S2: I don't know if you recall that, Kara, but the
- 37:39S2: court literally said, yeah, that was your rules. But the
- 37:42S2: Democratic Party's a private organization. And you know what? If
- 37:46S2: an organization like McDonald's wants to change the rules, then
- 37:49S2: they can change the rules. And, you know, you don't
- 37:51S2: really have jurisdiction to bring that into state court. Right.
- 37:55S2: So we see that happen over and over again.
- 37:59S3: Yeah. That 2016 election was was really interesting. The former, um,
- 38:04S3: DNC interim chair, a woman named Donna Brazile, she investigated
- 38:09S3: and discovered an agreement that specified that in exchange for
- 38:13S3: raising money and invested in investing in the DNC, that
- 38:17S3: Hillary Clinton would, in turn, get to control all of
- 38:19S3: the party's finances, their strategy, all the money that got raised,
- 38:24S3: who would be the party communications director, who would make
- 38:27S3: final decisions for the DNC. But this is when Bernie
- 38:30S3: Sanders was running as a Democrat. Um, you know, the
- 38:34S3: nominee had not been chosen yet, but the DNC was clearly, um,
- 38:39S3: you know, trying to tip the scales in favor of
- 38:41S3: Hillary Clinton, who was in charge of the DNC, sort
- 38:44S3: of informally, actually, not even informally. They they they found
- 38:47S3: an actual agreement. Um, but the DNC argued back that
- 38:51S3: they just like you were saying, they were a private
- 38:53S3: organization and that they had no legal obligation to follow
- 38:57S3: any kind of impartiality guidelines. And so, you know, that
- 39:02S3: just goes to show you that outsiders, even if they're inside,
- 39:07S3: it's it's really tough to, to get through pretty.
- 39:10S2: Pretty democratic, small D Democratic. Right. And we're not picking
- 39:14S2: on the Democratic Party. The Republican Party has there. Right.
- 39:18S2: It's just it's the institutions, right. That's what this how
- 39:21S2: it really Works series is all about. Right. This is
- 39:24S2: our first time, like, you know, I hope you whether
- 39:26S2: if you're on YouTube or on social media. Or you
- 39:29S2: can send us an email if you if you see
- 39:32S2: this and you like it or you don't like it
- 39:34S2: or you have a comment is contact us, we want
- 39:36S2: you to say, how can we do this better? What
- 39:38S2: did we miss? Right? We're not perfect. We all have
- 39:41S2: our biases. Cara has hers, I have mine, we have our,
- 39:44S2: you know, other authors and and followers, everybody. We're not
- 39:48S2: an unbiased network and we don't want to be an
- 39:51S2: unbiased platform, right? We're a platform for all the biases
- 39:54S2: to come together. Yes. Ivn has a simple etiquette. You
- 39:57S2: go to ivn us and you should check out the etiquette.
- 40:01S2: It's it's pretty simple. No partisan attacks, no personal attacks,
- 40:04S2: no self-promotion. Let's just have a discussion. And yes, we'll
- 40:07S2: bring things up and go, well, yeah, that was a
- 40:09S2: pretty anti Democratic Party comment or something like I'm not.
- 40:13S2: None of us are even we're not anti party. We're
- 40:16S2: pro-competition the independent voter network. How do we have a
- 40:19S2: better process for all voters. Right. Cara. One reason I'm
- 40:24S2: so happy that you're, you're on here with me and me.
- 40:27S2: You have this depth of perspective of things that you've
- 40:30S2: worked on, right? So I want to thank you for
- 40:32S2: your time, for being a part of of this event. Um,
- 40:35S2: you know, uh, experiment as we go forward. Um, and
- 40:41S2: just reiterate.
- 40:42S3: It's a it's a pleasure to to be with you.
- 40:44S3: It's it's really important. Just I think it's true that,
- 40:48S3: you know, of course, everybody has their own biases, but
- 40:54S3: a lot of times you can have a bias but
- 40:57S3: not necessarily an agenda. And our agenda, I think, is
- 41:01S3: to get information out, um, that, you know, to answer
- 41:04S3: some questions for people about, you know, when you when
- 41:07S3: you look under the when you look under the hood,
- 41:09S3: as Ross Perot famously said, you know, you can find
- 41:12S3: a lot of reasons for the dysfunction that we're currently experiencing, um,
- 41:18S3: in our politics. And also when you look under the
- 41:21S3: hood and you find problems, it gives you the opportunity
- 41:24S3: to maybe get involved, to try to fix some of
- 41:27S3: these things or to try to do as I've done,
- 41:30S3: you know, work within the system as it exists in
- 41:33S3: order to discover more about how it needs to change.
- 41:36S3: So not always with the expectation of always winning or always,
- 41:39S3: you know, getting to 50 states, you know, doing 41 states,
- 41:43S3: that taught me a lot.
- 41:44S2: It taught you a lot. And I mean, it's it's
- 41:46S2: the road to having changes. Right. And so and on
- 41:50S2: that point, like as I mentioned, if you're listening, I
- 41:53S2: hope you if you're a listener, you can subscribe to
- 41:55S2: the podcast, you know, on, on Spotify or Apple Music
- 41:59S2: wherever you listen to your podcasts. Um, go to YouTube,
- 42:02S2: subscribe to us there. Go to the website, find us
- 42:05S2: on on Facebook. You know, share. Share. If you like it,
- 42:08S2: share it with your friends. If you don't like it, fine.
- 42:12S2: Put it. Put a put a thumbs down sign. You know,
- 42:14S2: make a nasty, you know, a comment. You guys you
- 42:16S2: guys don't know what you're talking about. But but seriously,
- 42:19S2: we always say if you disagree or we got something
- 42:23S2: wrong or write something yourself, you know, submit it to
- 42:26S2: the editor at IBM. Submit an article. Submit something that
- 42:31S2: we'll publish it. We publish things all the time. Um, that,
- 42:34S2: you know, maybe the Independent voter Project has taken a
- 42:37S2: position against. We've published stuff that, you know, that challenges it.
- 42:43S2: That's what we're all about. Want to encourage a better dialogue?
- 42:47S2: We think we have better discussions because of it, and
- 42:49S2: you end up with better policy and a more informed electorate.
- 42:52S2: So I want to I want to thank you again, Kara. Again,
- 42:56S2: I'm Chad Pease, I'm your temporary host of the Independent
- 42:59S2: Voter podcast. Um, we're very excited. This is the kind
- 43:03S2: of inaugural How It Really Works episode. Um, looking forward
- 43:08S2: to doing a lot more of them. And I want
- 43:10S2: to thank everybody for listening.
- 43:23S1: OlasMedia.