Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Kook's Weekly - April 12 - The New Glenn Era and Meta's Space Validation
Transcript
- 0:06This is the AST Space Mobile podcast, just basically.
- 0:11From the phone and be seamless regardless of where you are.
- 0:15We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by
- 0:17satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we
- 0:22have is very, very, very large. Large.
- 0:27Good evening everyone, hope everyone had a good weekend.
- 0:30I am exhausted, but I spent my Sunday catching up doing the
- 0:35weekly just so I could make sure Stewie had something to read at
- 0:39the airport lounge, which he did admit to reading it, but he
- 0:43denies listening to the spaces, which is good because this is
- 0:46our place not not for experts. But as I reflect on the week,
- 0:51just kind of going through everything today, there's
- 0:54there's so many exciting things happening.
- 0:56So let's get right into it first.
- 0:58I think a lot of us right now are watching or maybe this was
- 1:01on delay, but the the erecting, I don't know what the right word
- 1:05is, but the to say the erection of new Glen 3 sounds sounds odd,
- 1:13but I think it is what they call it.
- 1:15And so they have the rocket out of the pad and they're lifting
- 1:18it up and it is super duper cool.
- 1:22And so we have a tentative launch date set, but I believe
- 1:26that these things aren't totally set in stone just yet because we
- 1:29have to hot fire it. So make sure you have a
- 1:32cancellation policy on your your flights to Orlando.
- 1:36But it's happening soon. And a really important thing to
- 1:40remember with this launch is it is Blue Origins third
- 1:44certification flight. And so I guess they call it
- 1:47upending. And so I hope New Glenn upends
- 1:52some of the false short thesis that it's out there.
- 1:55I saw some people tweeting that ASTS has a Blue Origin problem.
- 2:00We, we've always thought that ASTS has a really exciting Blue
- 2:03Origin opportunity. And so the general understanding
- 2:06is ASTS has SpaceX flights booked this year as fall back
- 2:13and that they're effectively fungible.
- 2:14I'm not totally sure how the contract structure works, but
- 2:18this is what I've certainly heard and what we've seen
- 2:21actually the company say. So it really is an opportunity
- 2:24for upside for Asts. If New Glen continues to be the
- 2:29successful program that we believe it it is and will be
- 2:33then we've become the anchor customer of really the the most
- 2:37capable launch vehicle out there while also getting the benefit
- 2:41of using SpaceX, which is obviously a very capable launch
- 2:45vehicle and then diversifying into another heavy launch
- 2:48vehicle that we have not yet had name but it but it sounds like
- 2:51it's already on, although it could easily be Japanese
- 2:54rockets. So all eyes are going to be on
- 2:57New Glenn this week. First the hot fire.
- 2:59Hopefully that goes well and then once we have the hot fire
- 3:05then they should be good for launch and that will be a very
- 3:09exciting event simply because the rocket is dropped in
- 3:12gorgeous. As many of you know I have many
- 3:15superstitions, one of which is not to order my model rocket
- 3:19from Kazakhstan until a successful launch.
- 3:22And so I'm eagerly awaiting reaching out to my my boys in in
- 3:27Kazakhstan to place an order for an ASTS liveried New Glen Three
- 3:33rocket to complement my collection of existing
- 3:37successful launch vehicles. So right behind me I have my
- 3:40PSLV rocket, which is beautiful and my LVM 3 is on its way, as
- 3:46well as my SpaceX because I'm going to have a nicer rocket
- 3:49collection than this pumper and pan man who bought a bunch of 3D
- 3:52printed crap. Oh no, not with Kook with me.
- 3:56It is aerospace grade rocket models made in a former Soviet
- 4:02bloc country with export controls on said rockets, which
- 4:05is why they take so long to get to me.
- 4:07So we have a lot riding on this, not the least of which is my
- 4:11model rocket collection. So what was also interesting is
- 4:15that we see more, I don't know that this would be a surprise,
- 4:18but just more evidence of the obvious, which is Blue Origin is
- 4:22building for scale. And so they filed the initial
- 4:26documents to build a new launchpad.
- 4:28And this is all just the build out of that company.
- 4:31And so the way the market is probably going to look at this
- 4:35for a while is that ASTS is in a way a loose derivative of the
- 4:40success of Blue Origin. I don't think that that's the
- 4:43right correlation, but I suspect that it might be viewed as such.
- 4:48And so in a way, people looking to get exposure to SpaceX can
- 4:52buy Asts for derivative exposure on the D to C opportunity, those
- 4:57lucky bastards, because they will accidentally pick the right
- 5:00horse. In the In the meantime, the
- 5:03unlucky people are using Asts as again a proxy for SpaceX and
- 5:07shorting it to hedge their risk. But then it the same way as
- 5:11excitement builds around Blue Origin, which I think it will,
- 5:15that's private company. And so the market being the
- 5:18market might do some silly things and view Asts as the
- 5:22derivative of that. I think that's going to be a
- 5:24loose correlation because they're certainly separate
- 5:26companies, but ASTS is a is a big customer of Blue Origin to
- 5:31the extent that the rocket flies.
- 5:34So last week we also had a little bit of drama with New
- 5:37Glenn. You know, I know a lot of us are
- 5:39really excited and then, you know, we're like, hey, raise the
- 5:42roof guys, raise the roof and they like blew the roof off.
- 5:45And so guys, come on like you, you can't let the space mob
- 5:49enthusiasm actually infect your company.
- 5:52And so Blue Origin did have a, a tank blow up when they were
- 5:56doing some pressure testing and so blew off the siding door.
- 6:01And so I guess something like this has happened before them.
- 6:05I this, this shouldn't impact will will not impact New Glenn
- 6:08three, apparently new van 4567 or 8:00.
- 6:12This might have been for New Glenn 9, although I'm not
- 6:14totally sure. I got to research this a little
- 6:16bit more and so, but just highlighting it here because
- 6:20some people noticed it. And again, the definitive answer
- 6:24is that that is a testing thing as they seek to find the limits
- 6:31of their equipment, which is good and found it in the tried
- 6:35and true SpaceX way of you don't know until you create an
- 6:39entertainment spectacle for people by blowing something up.
- 6:42But it certainly does not impact New Glen 3.
- 6:44And again, ASTS has a bunch of SpaceX launches planned as well.
- 6:48So 2026 should be really well covered with with plenty of
- 6:54launch vehicles. But then people go, well, yeah,
- 6:57but where where are the launches?
- 6:59And so my understanding is that is truly had been an ASTS delay,
- 7:04not a launch vehicle issue. And that's where some of this
- 7:07flexibility that they've dialed into their launch contracts.
- 7:10I don't have the contracts. Again, those weren't 8K to my
- 7:12knowledge, but I do believe you pay some fees as you have to
- 7:15reschedule. And I believe that that's what's
- 7:17been happening with SpaceX. But once the satellites are
- 7:20ready, SpaceX is like catching a, you know, a well oiled
- 7:24machine, you know, they you'll put you on the schedule.
- 7:27So it's interesting to see that space Mom, the reconnaissance
- 7:33force known as Space Mob was able to photograph a shipping
- 7:36container on its way to Midland. And so that looks like good
- 7:42news. You know, how many of these
- 7:43containers move around is something that is certainly
- 7:47something we follow. It can be indicative of
- 7:50shipments of satellites. So we're almost to the middle of
- 7:54April. We know from the company that
- 7:58the difficulties with the composite ring has been solved
- 8:01and then the engineering challenge and the testing
- 8:03related to stacking the satellites has solved.
- 8:07It is our belief that that is the the final critical path
- 8:10milestone for shipping the batch 1 of satellites.
- 8:15And we saw some truly ridiculous stuff from experts, quote UN
- 8:19quote that are currently having quote UN quote libations been so
- 8:23painful to listen to this guy who speculated that the company
- 8:27doesn't know how to stack its satellites.
- 8:29And I, I talked to some actual experts on this, people who, who
- 8:34do this for a living and stacking satellites, getting
- 8:37them ready for launch integration is just literally
- 8:40what happens every day. And so you ship one satellite at
- 8:42a time, or two or three, whatever the truck can bear, you
- 8:46get it to the payload processing facility and that, you know, so
- 8:50that's going to be at Cape Canaveral and that's where you
- 8:52made it to the rocket. And so for block one, that's
- 8:56what happened is they shipped 5 satellites.
- 8:59They're smaller obviously than FM one and two, but then they
- 9:02made it it to the launch vehicle and shot into space and work.
- 9:07This is literally what happens every time you don't ship the
- 9:10full fairing of satellites from Midland.
- 9:13And so this expert really revealed potentially just a lot
- 9:17a lack of payload engineering experience, which which I don't
- 9:21have, but I could very quickly figure out what the answer was.
- 9:25And so maybe a satellite engineer wouldn't know this, but
- 9:27then to go out and spread FUD about it really belies any sort
- 9:32of credibility someone might have.
- 9:35But the other thing that was really exciting, and I think we
- 9:40covered this last week too, but we're going to get back to it is
- 9:44this visit by Meta Facebook that visited the facility.
- 9:50And so we can see the the satellites and it's really
- 9:54consistent with what Catsy had been thinking.
- 9:56So it's good to see these pictures and then check it
- 9:59against what Space Mob is thinking.
- 10:01And so we're we're looking at the satellite and you know, the
- 10:06support structure that helps bear the load.
- 10:09So that's a little bit more information that we got.
- 10:13So another interesting analog we want to study this is going back
- 10:18to what I've so lovingly termed constellation Constipation,
- 10:21which again, I believe that our fibers about to kick in and
- 10:25we're going to get real regular real fast from the back half of
- 10:30April onward. But you can see and as Kevin did
- 10:33this really cool analysis on the pacing of Amazon's own
- 10:38constellation, we can look at the timeline there just to see
- 10:41what what's scaling A constellation looks like.
- 10:45So they launched their prototypes in 2023 and then
- 10:49about a year and a half later they had their first batch of
- 10:52production satellite. So they had their two test
- 10:54satellites and they popped out 27.
- 10:56Mind you, their little Leo satellites are teeny little
- 10:58things. They're not nearly the same
- 11:01engineering scale is what ASDS is doing.
- 11:03But then they've been popping out these like wildfire.
- 11:07And so they had a launch April 4th, and they have a launch
- 11:11April 27th and April 28th. And so they're banging these out
- 11:14now 25 at a time. So it went from April 2025, they
- 11:18had 27. Then we had three months later
- 11:23another 27, then a month later, 24, a month later 24, a month
- 11:28later 24. So then they went to a monthly
- 11:30cadence. Effectively now they're banging
- 11:32out multiple launches per month. And so as Kevin points out
- 11:36correctly, this is an excellent demonstration of production and
- 11:39launch cadence ramp going from barely any launches to a regular
- 11:43monthly cadence, including some months of multiple launches.
- 11:46So when you're looking at this, it is useful to do these sort of
- 11:49comparable curves and it just shows you just the industrial
- 11:57realities related to an industry.
- 11:59And so if you assume you know a good in class, best in class
- 12:03operator, you can start to appreciate the realm of the
- 12:06possible as companies encounter whatever challenges they're
- 12:09going to encounter and then resolve them to ultimately get
- 12:13to the cadence that they want. And it's our belief that ASTS is
- 12:19really at this tipping point and about about to get there.
- 12:23So looking at the Amazon Leo pace and pacing should be really
- 12:30dispositive of what ASTS is about to hit.
- 12:33Again, we have maybe the burden of knowledge among the space
- 12:36mob. I can see how a generalist is
- 12:38thinking like delays, delays, delays.
- 12:41And we're sitting here going, oh, yeah, OK.
- 12:42So they had to, you know, deal with some composite issues and
- 12:46engineering for stacking. And you know, of course it's
- 12:49nice to hit guidance and never they wish they would, but you
- 12:53learn new things when you're doing new things and you'd
- 12:57rather get it right than get it wrong.
- 12:59And so a bell more than anyone wants to go fast and hard, but a
- 13:04bell more than anyone also wants to get it right.
- 13:07And so does every owner operator of of any company, whether it's
- 13:11Elon or Jeff Bezos. So it's a good it's a good
- 13:14comparable just like the launch cadence is sort of on the way
- 13:19up. I thought it was pretty
- 13:21interesting to see Katzie's chart just on the subscriber
- 13:23count for the ASTS space mobile Reddit account.
- 13:28It it is pretty astonishing to you see how interest correlates
- 13:32with price. And you know, I'm as it should
- 13:36company gets bigger, gets the risk, more people hear about it,
- 13:38more people get interested in it.
- 13:40You know, I certainly see this in in my own community.
- 13:43I was just last night, I was out camping and a guy comes up to me
- 13:46and he's like, hey, thanks for thanks for that tip on AST space
- 13:50mobile. And I was actually pretty
- 13:51shocked when he then started like rattling off a bunch of
- 13:54fundamental information about the company.
- 13:56He's smart. He's a smart guy.
- 13:57He's in the cosmetics business. So not certainly not an expert.
- 13:59And he was, you know, he had already dug into the launch
- 14:02cadence and some of the technical specs.
- 14:05And so that's just pretty indicative of how many smart
- 14:09people sort of hear about it from, from other people that
- 14:11they deemed to be smart. You know, Asterisk, I'm not
- 14:14saying that I'm smart, but he might think I am.
- 14:17He might think I am smart. And, and then they dig in, they
- 14:19do a little bit more, they join the, the community, which means
- 14:22that they bought it and the stock went down 20%.
- 14:24And that's of course how you join a community.
- 14:26And then people, you know, when they join this community, they
- 14:28stick around. I still think that this space
- 14:31secular theme is the big one. And so I still think that we're
- 14:35very early in the discovery of this community.
- 14:38And I wouldn't be shocked if space Mob, if you will, the
- 14:41Reddit user community is ultimately 2, three, 400,000
- 14:45people. And it's a lot of people.
- 14:49And that's all, you know, a lot of people buying shares.
- 14:51And when you tie that against the fundamentals, you have to
- 14:54ask yourself, what's the development of a company's
- 14:56fundamental? So is there, is there actually
- 14:58value being traded? So I'm not interested in trades.
- 15:02I'm not interested in meme stocks.
- 15:03I'm not good at it. I wish I were.
- 15:05But every time I try to buy a stock because I think there's a
- 15:08meme momentum, as sure as the sun will rise, I lose money it.
- 15:11I mean, if you don't believe me, ask King Tut.
- 15:14It's comical at this point that I touch a stock and it turns to
- 15:17shit like instantly. And so that is just not who I
- 15:20am. And so I'm a fundamentalist at
- 15:24at heart, Very, very strong first principles on what?
- 15:28What generates value? And so first and foremost for
- 15:31me, there has to be a company that generates a lot of value.
- 15:34But to have a stock go up, you have to have other people
- 15:36identify that value and be interested.
- 15:38And that's where I think that the surefire way to do that is
- 15:41find a winner in a big secular theme because then everyone
- 15:46wants to get a piece of it. You don't have this generalist
- 15:48dilemma where it's some niche thing that no one really knows
- 15:51or some illiquid special situation where the only
- 15:55liquidity coming into it is some, you know, jerky hedge fund
- 15:58or you're praying to God someone pumps your bags.
- 16:02That's a that's a tough, tough putt versus find something,
- 16:07finding something that's going to be sort of like a NASDAQ 100
- 16:09winner, then the money is going to hit.
- 16:12And stock prices are at all times a function of liquidity.
- 16:16And, and again, in my view, must be some more supported by very
- 16:19strong fundamentals so that, you know, things aren't just pump
- 16:22and dump. But I believe that there's going
- 16:25to be a wave of people discovering this in a wave of
- 16:27money. And that's going to allow the
- 16:29price discovery, if not a premium to what price discovery
- 16:33should allow on where the stock will go, which is why I feel
- 16:36very, very comfortable owning it.
- 16:39And I always sort of when I look in the mirror, first of all, I'm
- 16:40like, maybe I should use more moisturizer.
- 16:43But then I look deeper in the mirror and I go, wow, I'm a
- 16:48sociopath. Like how do I sleep with the
- 16:50stock position? It is a funny thing.
- 16:52You know, I had a little fight the other day with that out
- 16:54valuations guy or something and he's like kook, I really want
- 16:57you to diversify. And I actually think he
- 16:59genuinely really does want me to and, and I probably should, but
- 17:03when you know what you own and you really think like an owner,
- 17:06it is pretty funny. Where like I lose more sleep on
- 17:11.1% positions that I'm down on then AFC space mobile where I
- 17:17believe I'm the single largest non institutional non management
- 17:20holder. I don't even like think about
- 17:22it. I mean, I think about like, oh
- 17:24wow, I didn't do my my weekly yet.
- 17:26And their people are going to be giving me crap on the Internet.
- 17:28And they did some guys like, Hey, kook, are you OK?
- 17:30I'm like, dude, I know, I know, I know it's coming.
- 17:32And so I think when you, when you find something that you
- 17:36know, if you really believe it's going to be globally relevant
- 17:39and everyone's going to be talking about it, that's the
- 17:42place to be. And that's the the real goal I
- 17:44have is having seen this enough times in my career, I want to
- 17:48nail one and, and this is it. It's good to have other smart
- 17:52investors like Google apparently lined up.
- 17:55Now, is Google thinking of this sort of as like APA trade?
- 17:59Probably not. Probably a strategic investor,
- 18:02but it is really interesting to see Google's track record.
- 18:05It is astonishing when, when you think about it for a hot 2nd of
- 18:11how good they are at some of their investments.
- 18:13But then it's not astonishing at all when you realize that Google
- 18:17has the best information, really the best perspective of really
- 18:20anyone in the world of where the trends are not the least of
- 18:25which is due that they make the trend.
- 18:27And so when you create your own weather, it is pretty good to
- 18:32invest behind that. So it's pretty cool when we saw
- 18:35Catsy's analysis of your showing when Google invested in SpaceX
- 18:41and some some of the similarities.
- 18:43What is also really cool is that you have to look at SpaceX on a
- 18:47base 10 log chart because the value went so high and same
- 18:54where the ASD space model now. But there's a lot of really neat
- 18:58things that are happening. And I've always thought that
- 19:01Google made sense as a potential strategic acquirer of the
- 19:04business, but certainly a strategic party is very
- 19:07interested and having a front row seat to the business.
- 19:13So what's the commonality of Google and Meta both missed the
- 19:18boat when it comes to space. So Google did have a good
- 19:20investment in SpaceX, but from my understanding doesn't really
- 19:24have their own thing. Meta is in the same camp.
- 19:27And as we talked about last week, Meta is unique to Google
- 19:31in that is still run by an owner operator.
- 19:35And so Mark effed it up. Mark bet on VR, which is a
- 19:40reasonable thing, I guess in hindsight, you know, there were
- 19:43already the the flaws and concerns around adoption of VR
- 19:46looked at this market a lot. But you know, he had to take a
- 19:49shot. And now he's probably regretting
- 19:53not doing space. But he's making up for a lost
- 19:57time. And so again, this guy, Vinod
- 20:01Samara Wickrama, runs what's called the Vamos in Acaso
- 20:06programs. Which are Meta's global
- 20:09initiatives to optimize voice and video call quality.
- 20:12So we all saw this last week, stock was ripping on it, pretty
- 20:15exciting. You know Meta visits Asts, but
- 20:18you want to make sure you double click and understand why what is
- 20:22going on here. It is curious that we've seen
- 20:26quite a few things with Meta at this point.
- 20:29We've seen them working with the Vodafone JV in Spain and so we
- 20:34get some more information from this visit.
- 20:37And so Vinod was kind enough to share with us on LinkedIn some
- 20:40of his notes and so quote, he came away genuinely inspired by
- 20:45the boldness of their approach in space based connectivity and
- 20:49then also how fundamentally different the model is.
- 20:52So here you directly compares it to SpaceX, not thousands of
- 20:57small satellites, but a few massive high-powered phased
- 21:00arrays designed to connect directly.
- 21:02And it's exciting because Facebook needs to find new
- 21:06growth and WhatsApp is one of those powerful levers of growth
- 21:15and as a European would say levers of growth.
- 21:18So I might start acting a little bit more sophisticated on the
- 21:21spaces as more people join. So when we want to think about
- 21:24the levers of growth, WhatsApp is really a big deal and
- 21:31emerging economies. And so I use it just to complain
- 21:34to Ann Pan man about the stock price and to tell Tut whatever
- 21:38meme stock I'm about to buy. So he knows to short it.
- 21:40And as is why Tut has some of the best returns in the market
- 21:43is he just waits for me to get interested in something and then
- 21:46he shorts it. And so that's my use case of
- 21:48WhatsApp, but I've seen it be used by certainly in other
- 21:52countries. It was really sort of the
- 21:53foundational platform and where a lot of commerce happens.
- 21:57There's some interesting things about WhatsApp I learned.
- 21:59And so in some countries with crappy cell phone service, you
- 22:05can have more of an asynchronous approach.
- 22:08And so like an app can just like break if it doesn't have a good
- 22:11connection. WhatsApp does a little, you
- 22:13know, better job forgetting all the details, but I was
- 22:16investigating this maybe a year ago.
- 22:18WhatsApp does a little bit of a better job queuing things.
- 22:20So if you're, you know, waiting for, you know, an order or
- 22:24something, you have more confidence that it just didn't,
- 22:28the cycle didn't break, which helps helps consumers, but
- 22:31WhatsApp has a very big interest in having the quality and the
- 22:35integration with M and OS into WhatsApp as as good as possible.
- 22:40So what I was digging into a little bit, you know, just a
- 22:43little AI digging is really what is, what is Meta want or need
- 22:48that they don't already have. And so I have a cell phone in my
- 22:51pocket with AT&T, and all these apps magically work.
- 22:55I have no idea what Meta has or has not done with AT&T in order
- 22:59to make their apps run the way they run on my phone, or whether
- 23:03that's really how they would run natively if Vinod didn't exist.
- 23:07And then you'd ask, well, why would they have this executive
- 23:10if they didn't do something? And so the first obvious thing
- 23:18is that WhatsApp might want access to customers where M and
- 23:22OS aren't and so in emerging markets and things like that.
- 23:25So that's the obvious thing is that Meta might want to do
- 23:28something directly with ASTS, especially as Asts begins to
- 23:34have spectrum, they can open up met new opportunities for both
- 23:38parties. That's neat.
- 23:41But even though most people get their services through an M&O
- 23:46effectively, so me for example, for AT&T and Meta rides on top
- 23:50as a app. Meta has a history of wanting to
- 23:53be closer, closer to the infrastructure layer and not
- 23:55just be an application. And so they've made massive
- 23:58investments and things like subsea cables and they've done a
- 24:01large partnership in India with Geo, which I don't know anything
- 24:05about and and some other initiatives, some of which
- 24:08haven't gone anywhere. But there's a pattern where Meta
- 24:11invest directly in connectivity infrastructure when it expands
- 24:15the addressable market of their own products.
- 24:18That makes sense. It makes sense for Meta.
- 24:20It also makes sense for Google, makes sense for all of the MAG 7
- 24:24to have things be connected more often.
- 24:30And so we don't know if there's going to be a specific deal that
- 24:34prints or not or you just have to wait.
- 24:36But something seems to be cooking.
- 24:38And so Meta has done large equity stake investments, but we
- 24:44just really don't know. But what we do know is that
- 24:47Vinod is not just a typical Corp dev person looking at financial
- 24:51investments. So he's an operational leader.
- 24:54And so he's doing the real work to make sure ASTS as a
- 24:59technology works, not a financial bet.
- 25:02And so all else equal, that's probably better for us as space
- 25:08mobbers to know that the people who want to make sure things
- 25:11work are at the ASTS shop and impressed with what they're
- 25:17seeing. That's the type of actual
- 25:20expert, not the PowerPoint expert who consults for a couple
- 25:24100 bucks an hour. This is the person making sure
- 25:27that Meta is working at the infrastructure layer.
- 25:31And he's kicking the tires and apparently really likes what he
- 25:33sees, so much so that he's actively basically throwing some
- 25:37shade at SpaceX. Good information helps me sleep
- 25:41at night so you know of all the things that can go wrong, which
- 25:48I'm humble that there are many. It is good information to know
- 25:53that people like this are taking their teams to our factory,
- 25:57looking at batch 1 satellites and coming away impressed.
- 26:02That is all else equal, good news.
- 26:05Yet the Bears will say the tech doesn't work that I just don't
- 26:09get it how these people always hide behind the well.
- 26:14Niccolo had an investment from GMGMSA.
- 26:16Bunch of dip shits. Like you had that Lady who's
- 26:19freaking out, trying to be cool, getting into the moment, not
- 26:23doing any work and got totally duped.
- 26:26But then you have these M and OS, which are like the most
- 26:28conservative companies in the world, dragging everything out
- 26:30for five years, torturing Asts to death to get these DA's
- 26:34across doing, you know, FCC water torture on on filings and
- 26:40reviewing interference and comments.
- 26:42You know, basically, I can't think of anything more painful
- 26:45and from a from a more diverse and, you know, pool of
- 26:50international interested parties who have all arrived at the same
- 26:55answer. Seems to me to be dispositive of
- 26:58we have a really interesting technology.
- 27:00So yet the bears still try to introduce doubt.
- 27:05The other thing that was cooking this week is this article that
- 27:10in or out, in or out Italia. I can't say his name.
- 27:16God, can you guys pick easier names like Kook?
- 27:18So Italia 51 found this neat article and it notes Hughes,
- 27:24which is a, you know, a big company had discussions with the
- 27:27Department of Defense revealing significant interest in direct
- 27:29to device solutions. Specifically, the Department of
- 27:32Defense is exploring commercially based standards and
- 27:34products to rapidly deploy services quote without having to
- 27:38acquire yet another terminal or device.
- 27:42You know, that's pretty cool. And it really speaks to, again,
- 27:50the efficiency of something like AST Space Mobile.
- 27:53There's no lock in open architecture, standards based,
- 27:57and you can use the existing terminals.
- 28:00Big deal. And I read some other quote, I
- 28:02think it was in this article, is that soldiers have to choose
- 28:04when they're packing their bags. Do they want bullets, Mr. ES or
- 28:08comms? I would say if we can shrink the
- 28:11comms, it's probably a better idea for our soldiers to have
- 28:14more bullets and food then carrying around big monkey
- 28:17phones seem seems obvious and the Department of War seems to
- 28:24agree. They're also increasingly, and
- 28:27they shouldn't be new to anyone, they're increasingly viewing Leo
- 28:30as strategic. And so they want to deploy this
- 28:33next generation of commercial technologies on the battlefield
- 28:37and and harden them in a way to make them suitable for defense,
- 28:42yet not mess around with them so much that you change the
- 28:47underlying reason why their commercial systems.
- 28:53And so my view is that with each war, there's always a new
- 28:55learning. And so back in Desert Storm,
- 28:58people are driving around in Hummers, other people figured
- 29:02out improvised, the explosive devices, Hummer is no longer
- 29:05really viable, blah, blah blah, M raps, enter the scene.
- 29:10You know, there's always a new learning from each war, sadly,
- 29:13that we have wars, but there's always a new learning.
- 29:16And so as Mario Nawal points out that the Iran war is expensive,
- 29:25but it's not the cost of burning the oil that is potentially the
- 29:29thing that is catching people's attention.
- 29:31It's the destruction of some of the assets that the US has which
- 29:35are the hardest to replace. So the eyes in the sky.
- 29:38And so Iran, apparently not that dumb, figured out that hitting
- 29:44America's radar systems was in fact the highest and best use of
- 29:49their missiles if they could land them.
- 29:50And so, sadly, they did land some.
- 29:53And so some of our radars, which were half a billion dollars
- 29:56each, were struck in Jordan and Qatar.
- 29:59And then one of those early warning aircraft was hit.
- 30:03Everyone saw in Saudi Arabia. I don't believe they're making
- 30:06those anymore, but $700 million. So pretty expensive and pretty
- 30:12strategic destruction when if you're calling a spade a spade,
- 30:17Iran was targeting the right things.
- 30:20It's sort of the war equivalent of, you know, give a man a fish,
- 30:25you feed him for a day, teach him how to fish, you feed him
- 30:28forever. In war, if you can knock out all
- 30:30the radar systems, you ground all the missiles.
- 30:33So why hit a missile system or knock out a missile or or hit a
- 30:39tank if you can just whack the actual radar and really degrade
- 30:44the war fighting capability? So the US needs to do everything
- 30:47possible to prevent that from ever happening?
- 30:50Seems logical. If I were in the Department of
- 30:52War this is what I'd be focused on is how to have the most
- 30:56efficient multi layered radar system possible, especially one
- 31:01that would be impervious from destruction in the next go
- 31:06round. And I think the answer is really
- 31:09clear. Leo satellites.
- 31:12And so I think the writing's on the wall that ASTS and others
- 31:15are going to get business like this and it's going to be a
- 31:17burgeoning secular theme. And I think it could be a big
- 31:20one. No one.
- 31:21I would say no. I'm sure someone knows, but I
- 31:23don't know what the size of this opportunity is.
- 31:25But as an investor, I'm banking on it being large and in tandem
- 31:31with the other very large things I think are also possible in
- 31:34other business lines, commercial, for example.
- 31:37All these large things, only a couple of them have to pan out
- 31:41as really large to have an amazing investment outcome.
- 31:44And you're seeing more writing on the wall here.
- 31:47And so if it weren't a big opportunity, the company
- 31:50wouldn't be hiring against it. Very simple philosophy over here
- 31:55at Koch Report is meet the team. People are what build companies.
- 32:01I really hadn't appreciated this in my younger days.
- 32:04Now, given what I do for a living, I have appreciated that
- 32:09not to be too trite into West Coastie, but people are
- 32:12everything. But not in the sort of like, hey
- 32:15guys, great, great job hitting the quarter and you know, you
- 32:18buy the team a pizza or something.
- 32:20You know, it's really making sure you have elite talent in
- 32:24the roles that drive important outcomes for your company.
- 32:27And so following the hiring of these roles is important.
- 32:32And for me, I don't do it as closely anymore because people
- 32:35like ASTS, investors and others do a great job.
- 32:38So I just document it, but early on when I was building
- 32:40conviction in my investment, I had done this tweet thread
- 32:44called Meet the Team. And it was just me going through
- 32:47every single employee I could find and just learning about
- 32:50them and seeing what they had accomplished.
- 32:52Seeing if they look like a A level hires looking of like they
- 32:56were poached from their employers.
- 32:58Like people who had options and yet chose to Yolo their future
- 33:04on this company. Because employees are not
- 33:07diversified. How you invest your time in your
- 33:09job is a big decision. And for people with options you
- 33:13can usually only have one job. This is no longer the COVID
- 33:16remote work thing where engineers could have like 10
- 33:18jobs. Although I'm sure some of you
- 33:20guys still figure out how to pull that off.
- 33:22But normal people don't do that. And so ASTS hired David Lynch as
- 33:26a program manager and the job description is to oversee a
- 33:31complete, oversee the complete portfolio of defense programs at
- 33:35AST. Space mobile programs, plural.
- 33:41Exciting. So prior to that, use at Sierra
- 33:43Nevada Corporation doing the same thing.
- 33:48You've been the chief engineer at Northrop Grumman.
- 33:50Have you heard of that? They make mail trucks, canoes
- 33:54and B2 bombers, among other cool things.
- 33:59And then he was a systems engineer at Raytheon for a long
- 34:02time. So here's a very technical
- 34:04person who now seems to be able to very credibly speak to the
- 34:12world's most demanding counterparty, U.S. military and
- 34:15others around the capabilities of our systems.
- 34:17So I'm very excited to see that our enthusiasm as space mob for
- 34:22these opportunities is being matched by the company
- 34:26attracting elite talent to bring that value to fruition, which
- 34:32ultimately someone's got to be on the field to come down with
- 34:35the ball that that has to happen.
- 34:37The ball doesn't come down if the players not there to catch
- 34:39it. And so you want to make sure
- 34:41that we have a lot of receivers on the field to come down with
- 34:43the ball and score a touchdown. And when you look at Asts and
- 34:47their talent flows, you're seeing a lot of people who are
- 34:51able to come down with the ball and that is important and
- 34:54necessary. Talent drives outcomes.
- 34:57Simple observation that can save you a lot of angst in your life.
- 35:03It's also good to check in with M and OS.
- 35:07And so radar systems are all fun games, but M and OS are probably
- 35:11what are going to butter our bread and certainly a very large
- 35:15market for us. And so we have the guys out of
- 35:18New Zealand. One NZ.
- 35:20Truly an astoundingly beautiful country that I hope to visit
- 35:23again. And what's cool is they come out
- 35:26and they're just again doing our research for us.
- 35:28And so Kevin Chen found a really cool article and they just talk
- 35:35about how the service works with unmodified phones.
- 35:39That's exciting and also hits on this day of sovereignty Point,
- 35:44which we've talked about many, many times.
- 35:46And so ASTS, because it is bent pipe architecture, which means
- 35:51it really just reflects the signal from the user, user
- 35:56handset to the base station on the ground.
- 35:59So the network core, the network operator doesn't ever lose
- 36:03control of the data. It's not processed by some
- 36:07foreign entity. ASTS being the foreign entity,
- 36:10SpaceX is a foreign entity in the eyes of New Zealand.
- 36:14And so if you rely on that, you're giving your data to a
- 36:16foreign company that can do whatever they want with it.
- 36:19And so the US could search to run, you know, who knows what
- 36:22the US is going to do with the data.
- 36:23I mean, we of all watch homeland, we all know.
- 36:26And so as much as I would like the US to have access to
- 36:28everyone's data for our own purposes, each country is
- 36:32equally motivated to not have that happen.
- 36:35And so for a company and which is the the right outcome is that
- 36:39company country should have sovereignty over their stuff
- 36:43despite other countries desire to infringe upon that
- 36:47sovereignty. And so ASTS is first principled
- 36:51company and preserves data sovereignty for each of its many
- 36:55customers. So the data never leaves New
- 36:58Zealand's jurisdiction and that's a big time selling point
- 37:03with foreign government customers M and OS.
- 37:06In fact, governments might require as much from their M and
- 37:11OS. So I think this is one of these
- 37:13subtle points that ends up mattering in a big time way.
- 37:19And on the margin, it just helps validate your thesis.
- 37:24I don't know that it like swings you one way or another really
- 37:27hard, but just to understand it is to understand this mosaic of
- 37:29many things that are happening to AST space mobile, which which
- 37:34are important. And let me just see what my next
- 37:37tweet was another Kevin Chen. He's going to call this the
- 37:40Kevin Chen Show tonight. And so he found another cool
- 37:43article from an industry consultant named Joe Madden,
- 37:49who's more than a typical consultant.
- 37:51This guy is actually really plugged in.
- 37:53He's gone and visited the facility, done detailed first
- 37:56hand research. He's hired by M and OS and
- 38:00others for real advice. So I think unfortunately we've
- 38:04degraded the term expert consultant in our, you know,
- 38:10basically diminishment of all Tim Ferrar's accomplishments.
- 38:14But there are actually some of these people that do good work.
- 38:17And Joe Madden is certainly one of those people that I've been
- 38:20following for a while and can attest that that person
- 38:24certainly has good perspective. And so he points out that
- 38:31there's a lot of buzz on Starlink IPO blah, blah, blah
- 38:35and says that a lot of people really just don't know what the
- 38:38Tam is for the DTC opportunity, which is fair.
- 38:41It's a hard question to answer. But he points out that if AST
- 38:46Space Mobile can really achieve some indoor performance, the
- 38:48size of the revenue pool could double or triple in size.
- 38:51And that just goes to whether or not ASTS has been able to create
- 38:54the killer app. And I believe they have.
- 38:58And it's just important to recognize that the competing
- 39:01systems are not the same. Using low band spectrum with the
- 39:05characteristics and beamforming ability of Asts allows you to
- 39:10use the service much more like a typical cell phone versus the
- 39:14line of sight outdoor services that some of us currently have
- 39:17access to. And so this weekend, for
- 39:19example, I was out like truly in the middle of nowhere, kind of
- 39:24on the border of California and Nevada and didn't have cell
- 39:26phone service. I was kind of behind a mountain
- 39:28and I didn't realize none of my texts had gone through.
- 39:31And so my wife hadn't heard from me for 10 or 10 plus hours.
- 39:36And she will say those were the 10 best hours of her life, pure
- 39:40peace and quiet now. But eventually she was like, uh
- 39:42oh, this guy's usually pretty good at letting me know that
- 39:46he's OK. And so I had never used the
- 39:49Apple system before. And so it's, I think the system
- 39:53recognized that I needed it. And so I went out.
- 39:56I was able to hit a satellite and get connected and send some
- 39:59texts and it was great. It worked.
- 40:01It worked well. And in that moment, you know, I
- 40:04didn't have cell phone service for, you know, a good 12 plus
- 40:07hours plus overnight. I was I was grateful to be
- 40:10connected. And it just so happened I was
- 40:12sort of in a desert with literally nothing between me and
- 40:15a satellite except for the atmosphere.
- 40:18Pretty good environment for it. And true to form, it worked
- 40:21really well. And you can see that this is
- 40:23going to be the expectation. But then, of course, I got
- 40:25greedy. You know, what person is like
- 40:29content with just a couple of texts to their wife?
- 40:31I want to go on X in doom scroll.
- 40:34I didn't know what sort of things I'm supposed to be mad
- 40:36at. I didn't know that Martin
- 40:38Shkreli was posting videos of Eric Swalwell.
- 40:41These are the things that I did not know, and I could not know
- 40:44because I only had Apple's tech satellite service.
- 40:47I was out of the loop, couldn't do the weekly things like that.
- 40:50And so people get greedy. Once you get a taste and you
- 40:54get, you know, a little satellite text, you immediately
- 40:56want the full enchilada and you want mobile broadband, basic
- 41:00human tendency, you know, give me an inch.
- 41:03I want a mile. And that's, that's what ASTS is
- 41:07going to do. And so we're the killer app and
- 41:10that's going to, I believe explode the market potential
- 41:13beyond what people generally think.
- 41:15And that's where we'll end up looking like smart, smart
- 41:18investors. If that pans out, the MNO
- 41:22perspective is somewhat similar. They will get a lot of spectrum.
- 41:28But then one reason or another, they're only given an inch, but
- 41:32they want a mile too. So Katzie does an interesting
- 41:35job analyzing what is this 5G issue, which I remember this
- 41:40back from the day where all of a sudden there was, you know,
- 41:42these issues, issues with 5G screwing around with airports.
- 41:46And so I think a lot of people usually mystified, like why
- 41:49don't I have good cell phone coverage at an airport?
- 41:51Well, the reason is because you can't have 5G near, you can't
- 41:54have those antennas nearby because it's screwing up
- 41:57airplanes. And so all the M and OS spent a
- 42:01vast fortune to buy all of this C band spectrum, but haven't
- 42:10been able to deploy it efficiently because of
- 42:13interference issues with airplanes.
- 42:15And so there's I guess a grand bargain with the regulators, but
- 42:19it's going to take many, many years to do in terms of
- 42:21switching out the avionics of aircraft with the right sort of
- 42:27electronic filters. I'm not an expert on this by any
- 42:30means, but what is interesting and it's very similar to Legato,
- 42:33is Legato created a problem with GPS because Legato as originally
- 42:38envisioned was going to use ground stations.
- 42:44That's where the power was is on the ground and that's what was
- 42:48going to overpower the faint GPS signal.
- 42:50When you use Legato spectrum from a satellite, the power is
- 42:55very far removed from ground, therefore no interference.
- 43:02So what's interesting here is the M and OS might be able to
- 43:06really dramatically shrink the time to value on these massive
- 43:10spectrum investments they've made by lighting up that
- 43:12spectrum via satellite immediately.
- 43:15And then over time they can swap it as they as they see fit.
- 43:20But it's just another example where M and OS and people like
- 43:24us might have very different perspectives on why the value of
- 43:30satellite enabled spectrum is there.
- 43:33And this goes against the simple consumer minded thinking of,
- 43:36well, I have good cell phone service in the middle of New
- 43:39York City. So this must be a short that's
- 43:42sort of the Patagonia vest way. And they'll, they'll even say
- 43:46tonight, you know, Coop just defined the bear case because he
- 43:49only used his satellite service when he was literally in the
- 43:51middle of the desert. Oh, yeah, I did.
- 43:54But there's so many different angles to where satellite
- 43:58enabled spectrum becomes useful when lighting up pieces of
- 44:03spectrum that might otherwise have some interference issues or
- 44:07deployment issues, for example. So that's what gets really
- 44:10interesting to just keep absorbing some of these
- 44:12perspectives so we can really have a better vantage point.
- 44:19AT&T definitely got a vantage point when Kevin Chen singularly
- 44:24pulled off his own Russiagate and like tilted the outcome of
- 44:27an election. In terms of this poll on what
- 44:29was the most historic AT&T technology event, I guess it was
- 44:34ASTS against literally the invention of the phone.
- 44:38And ASTS was able to win the vote with how many of us we get
- 44:432900 votes, showing that ASTS was the most impactful
- 44:48innovation in the life of AT&T. So I would just think that
- 44:52that's the ultimate flex of our political power at this point.
- 44:57But it is also true that people are going to value kind of what
- 45:01do you do for me lately and having your phone work anywhere
- 45:04with broadband will be that thing and people are going to
- 45:06love it and Apple gets it. Catsy found some filings that
- 45:11showed that ASTS have been certified with Apple.
- 45:14So if we were SpaceX, we would have a front page Bloomberg
- 45:17story saying Apple working with AST Space Mobile on innovation
- 45:22that will displace everything. But because we're AST Space
- 45:25Mobile, we'll have no such article.
- 45:27It will be buried in FCC documents for only us to know.
- 45:31But it just points out the handset makers care.
- 45:35And so despite the large investment that Apple has made
- 45:39in Global Star and things like that, they're still working with
- 45:44AST space model. I don't think they're married to
- 45:48Global Star, for example. And we know that Samsung is
- 45:53working with them. So everything happens the way
- 45:58the way it should and SpaceX continues to be threatened by
- 46:02the company. So FCC filings are replete with
- 46:06complaints from SpaceX basically just saying that ASTS is a
- 46:11threat to their business. So AST investors did a great job
- 46:14in this somewhat long post, and I won't belabor it, but it's the
- 46:20same normal sort of law fair that SpaceX is waging.
- 46:23I don't take any of this stuff very seriously anymore.
- 46:25I try to read it to learn, but basically these companies are
- 46:29all posturing, especially over this global 2 gigahertz spectrum
- 46:33the ASTS is making a play for. And it just shows how vulnerable
- 46:37SpaceX feels in this regard. But we'll see.
- 46:41I think I'm going to be more like Scott in this where he
- 46:43doesn't really read these FCC filings anymore because it's
- 46:46just going to happen. But the more important thing for
- 46:48SpaceX is the slowing growth rate.
- 46:52And so there's an account called Lost Fundamentals, Lost
- 46:55Fundamental, which did some analysis just on the pretty cool
- 47:01ratios actually days to add a million net new Starlink
- 47:05customers. And so as the company was really
- 47:08ripping, it was hit a through of 47 days per million customers,
- 47:14but that was after some big promotional activity.
- 47:17But now it's been kind of constant and the number of the
- 47:22number of Starling customers added per day has started to
- 47:25basically steady off. I wouldn't call it a decline
- 47:28because it was sort of this peak promotional number, but it's
- 47:31kind of been steady and it's still a very high number.
- 47:34So we're not going to be calling SpaceX the next Blockbuster
- 47:38Video anytime soon, but it's going to be very hard to show
- 47:42upward inflecting growth for SpaceX really just as a function
- 47:45of the astounding results they've already achieved.
- 47:48Anyone like Tim Farrar that starts crapping on SpaceX, it's
- 47:52kind of like, yo, hey, dude, they like created a $2 trillion
- 47:55company or wherever it's going to trade.
- 47:57I would say they did a couple things right.
- 47:59So if there's growth is slowing, look at the level from which it
- 48:03is slowing, a level that is astronomically higher than a
- 48:07level than this little peanut brain could have ever possibly
- 48:10expected. But yet the dumb wits will come
- 48:13out and be like, SpaceX growth is slowing.
- 48:16I was right the entire time, You know, meanwhile, countless
- 48:19billionaires have been created. And so I don't want to be
- 48:23falling into this trap of crapping on on SpaceX for the
- 48:27astounding success that they've been, but they are.
- 48:30But I will, but they they are having the law of large numbers
- 48:36catch up with them. And that's why Elon has to
- 48:39continue to find new growth areas.
- 48:42And that's where D to C was really a reaction from him.
- 48:46But I believe that he's going to probably go a little bit more
- 48:50toward the AI data center pitch because that's kind of a bigger
- 48:54easier story. And what people are expecting
- 48:57that he's going to be out pumping the D to C opportunity.
- 49:00I just don't know if that's really what he wants to talk
- 49:02about because he doesn't have the M and OS to show for it.
- 49:05But we'll, we'll find out and he's got to find a good story to
- 49:13tell. And we do have an article from
- 49:16Ryan Connor found an article in the information that says Elon
- 49:20Musk is pitching Starlight mobile as a major driver of
- 49:22Spacex's valuation despite limited revenue and uncertain
- 49:26demand. I don't have the full story.
- 49:27I actually think I have a subscription of the information
- 49:30through my firm, so I'll go find it, but we kind of know the
- 49:33drill. I, I still just scratch my head
- 49:35because when all the M and OS are basically spoken for, I just
- 49:38don't really know where that growth is going to come from.
- 49:40But I could see the SpaceX phone happening.
- 49:44So I just saw that Grok is going to be coming out with a
- 49:47competitor to WhatsApp. I'm actually pretty anxious for
- 49:50that. I'd, I'd be interested to be
- 49:52using a WhatsApp that didn't require a phone number because
- 49:55then I could use it on my iPad when I want to complain to Mpman
- 49:58at any hour of the day. And so I could see myself using
- 50:01that. I'm a big user of X and I don't
- 50:05have a Tesla, but a lot of people do.
- 50:08And so I do. I do see a world where Elon
- 50:12comes out with a, a SpaceX phone and I see how it could be cool.
- 50:16And so that might be what he's really pitching because he does
- 50:19have the pieces in play now that are vertically integrated to
- 50:22make a go for that. And, and maybe he does, maybe he
- 50:25doesn't. But this just becomes really a,
- 50:28a movie where, you know, the empire must strike back and the
- 50:32M and OS are the empire. And it's not clear to me that
- 50:35Elon can defeat the world's M and OS.
- 50:39So if he tries to defeat the world's M and OS, you're going
- 50:44to have an intergalactic alliance of all M and OS and all
- 50:49many governments uniting all against him.
- 50:54And ASTS appears to be, you know, the arms dealer to all of
- 51:00those people to fight him. So we'll see how it pans out,
- 51:04but I like our odds. SpaceX is getting a gift from
- 51:11Brendan Carr as well. So it looks like the FCC is
- 51:14going to ease the satellite power rules.
- 51:17And so I've read this and all the briefings on this and I
- 51:21don't really know what the right answer is.
- 51:22And so the the power limits are currently in place to prevent
- 51:27interference, which is what the FC CS job is.
- 51:32SpaceX argues that these are outdated rules, which which
- 51:35might be true, but the data appears to show that SpaceX does
- 51:38interfere with adjacent frequency bands, which is a
- 51:42problem. And so in that respect, then
- 51:46easing the rules should not happen, but so we'll find out.
- 51:53And so if they do, if they do loosen the rolls, that is just
- 51:56more power that Asts can have as well.
- 51:59So a company with superior beamforming technology, they can
- 52:02already work under a much stricter regime if loosened up.
- 52:08Our ability to work indoors and things like that goes up on a
- 52:13log scale. So if they do loosen these
- 52:17rules, I think that the net beneficiary is still AST Space
- 52:19Mobile because our service goes from really good to astounding
- 52:23if that happens. So we'll watch that carefully.
- 52:27I could almost bet you my life that Catsy is going to do a
- 52:30really interesting post on this that will put a little bit more
- 52:33perspective on what happens if, for example, the power flux
- 52:37density rules go from -120 watts per square meter to 110 -110.
- 52:46And again, it's base 10. So it's not, you know, 10% more
- 52:50power. It's a big deal.
- 52:54So we'll wait for Katzie to help break that down a little bit
- 52:57more. And then you also had some total
- 53:00dope named Sasso, which is close enough.
- 53:04You know, I'll sell him an F. And he's now going to be Fafo
- 53:08doing some Flutter article about why the beamforming doesn't
- 53:12work. So I posted his work just in
- 53:13case people hadn't seen it. Then all it takes is 3 seconds.
- 53:17Just run it through AI and it'll tell you why it's wrong.
- 53:19I've never done you read my work on it, but it just shows where
- 53:23his research is all just tragically wrong, conflating a
- 53:26lot of concepts incorrectly, blah blah blah.
- 53:30So you got some fudsters out there.
- 53:33Just wanted to highlight this one as well as the rebuttal to
- 53:36it, just so that if anyone saw it and freaked out, you could
- 53:40unfreak out and go about your life.
- 53:43So there's there's that that's put out there.
- 53:46And then lastly, we are having more out with some spectrum
- 53:51holders they're looking to repurpose or get authority to
- 53:55use D to C on their spectrum. So grain management, which we've
- 53:59talked about for a couple weeks now has this T-Mobile spectrum
- 54:03and 800 megahertz band and they're, you know, looking to
- 54:08get authorization to use it for D to C.
- 54:11You have Antarex doing the same as well.
- 54:14So it looks, you know, like the catsy prophecy was right where
- 54:19spectrum will find its most efficient system.
- 54:24And so you have a lot of spectrum out there, Legato being
- 54:27sort of the first domino to fall, which someone owned but
- 54:31really couldn't figure out how to use it or use it efficiently.
- 54:34And now they're seeing this opportunity to light it up in
- 54:36this way. And that's going to hopefully, I
- 54:39think it will happen because Brendan Carr is, is really
- 54:42motivated to free up spectrum for this type of use.
- 54:45And that will give more capacity for these DTC applications,
- 54:48which should allow MN OS and the owners of this to monetize
- 54:52spectrum however they see fit. But although ultimately bringing
- 54:57these services to consumers, which ultimately will have
- 54:59revenue generation to the, you know, the system that is doing
- 55:03it. And so we're seeing more
- 55:05velocity around that. And there keeps continues to be
- 55:08a little clues around T-Mobile. And so will the flipping in
- 55:14happen of T-Mobile going to AST Space Mobile.
- 55:17We should get a calcium market on this.
- 55:20I'd be actually pretty curious to see what the invisible hand
- 55:23would say. So if anyone knows how to
- 55:25actually get a calcium market up, that actually would be a
- 55:27really good one. Is T-Mobile contracting with AST
- 55:30Space Mobile? I don't even know if you want to
- 55:32say flip entirely because that maybe they'll just have both.
- 55:36But this is something that I think we just have to say is low
- 55:39probability because it seems so sensational.
- 55:41But there seems to be enough little hints in the FCC
- 55:44documents that suggest they're analyzing it.
- 55:48And if it happens, that would be the ultimate gut punch to SpaceX
- 55:53and I think cause a true shock in the market in favor of AST
- 55:57Space Mobile. So in that respect, I hope it
- 56:00happens. But I think right now we have to
- 56:01assume it's pretty low probability, but something I
- 56:04certainly have my eye on. So thank you everyone for
- 56:07joining. We had another busy week.
- 56:09And this next week, it's really going to be all eyes on New
- 56:13Glenn. And remember that Blue Origin is
- 56:16a very conservative company. This is their third
- 56:19certification flight. So they have a monstrous
- 56:22incentive to get this one right. They're 2 for two in terms of
- 56:26reaching orbit. They're one for two in terms of
- 56:29landing the booster. And so hopefully, they're going
- 56:31to go 3 for 3/2 for three in each of those respective counts.
- 56:38Have a great night talk soon too.
- 56:40Good to be true. Will it work?
- 56:51We don't have a clue. Lily awaits.
- 56:58We will be there soon, swinging for the stars, the earth and
- 57:03moon. The whisper through the static
- 57:07hits. We love the risk.
- 57:14Yeah, we love the risk. We love the risk.
- 57:35We love the risk. Blue Bursar Connect The World.
- 57:41Fortune's Rise. The Sea.
- 57:43Travers, We hope, 'cause we're the model space of the race.
- 58:05Tears of joy from our first call.
- 58:12Reaching life, connecting all hills and seas where no tower
- 58:23stands, connecting voices in forgotten lands.
- 58:29Each day feels like a Bluebirds kiss, A journey to Leo.
- 58:36With this, we love the risk. We love the risk Bluebirds.
- 58:43Or connect the world. Right, let's see some food.
- 58:53We all live through the fear and bliss 'cause we're the marble
- 59:01space. We, we love the rich right
- 59:17spectrum. Chase the beam, never foolish in
- 59:21Earth. Hold, hold, hold only them.
- 59:31We love, we love it Bluebird soar, connect the world fortunes
- 59:46rise and sea jumpers we hold the line through the fear and bliss
- 59:54'cause we the marble space. We love the race, have spectrum
- 1:00:04chase, the being that a boy should know, Hold, hold, hold it
- 1:00:18in that time. 321 We love the risk.
- 1:00:48Thanks for listening to the AST Space Mobile podcast.
- 1:00:52If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the
- 1:00:55podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social
- 1:00:58media, or leave a rating and review.
- 1:01:01To catch all the latest news about AST Space Mobile, make
- 1:01:04sure to subscribe. Thanks again and I'll see you
- 1:01:07next time. We're doing something very, very
- 1:01:13big and I think with this technology we can really affect
- 1:01:16billion lives. AFP Space globally is the only
- 1:01:19company that has proven technology to deliver several
- 1:01:23mobile connectivity directly from state to do everyday
- 1:01:27smartphone people will just basically.
- 1:01:29Turn their phone. Can be syntax regardless of
- 1:01:32where you are. We don't want the user even to
- 1:01:34know that it's connected by satellite.
- 1:01:37Our role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership
- 1:01:40with the MMO Listen. Waffles.