Latest / AG Bull / Ag Squawk | Jared Dillian & Davis Michaelsen | How To DJ Techno And Hedge Chaos

Transcript

Ag Squawk | Jared Dillian & Davis Michaelsen | How To DJ Techno And Hedge Chaos · AG Bull

0:13
SPEAKER_01: I may be about to walk into an intellectual wood chipper today.
0:18
SPEAKER_01: My guest is a deep thinker.
0:20
SPEAKER_01: Decades of experience in the markets.
0:23
SPEAKER_01: My go-to strategy is to kind of wind them up and let them go, but I do have some very, very specific questions.
0:31
SPEAKER_01: Stick around.
0:32
SPEAKER_01: We'll see how that works out.
0:44
SPEAKER_01: From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson, the handsome newsman.
0:51
SPEAKER_01: So glad to have you on this afternoon's edition of Ag Squawk.
0:55
SPEAKER_01: We are the financial channel obsessed with agriculture.
0:59
SPEAKER_01: Today, we're going to kind of lean into the financial side.
1:02
SPEAKER_01: My guest today drops knowledge in a daily newsletter by day and drops sick beats and brings the boogie by night.
1:09
SPEAKER_01: We'll get to know Jared Dillion in just a moment.
1:13
SPEAKER_01: But first, let's, you know what?
1:14
SPEAKER_01: I'm going to start it right off with a shout-out.
1:18
SPEAKER_01: We got something old school sent to us through the mail, and it's it's today's shout-out.
1:24
unknown: Come on.
1:25
SPEAKER_01: Shout out to Diane from Illinois.
1:28
SPEAKER_01: Diane did something super classy.
1:30
SPEAKER_01: We we sent her a little gift, as we here at Ag Bull are known to do, and she sent us a thank you note.
1:38
SPEAKER_01: Who sends thank you notes anymore?
1:39
SPEAKER_01: I don't send nearly enough.
1:41
SPEAKER_01: It's an excellent reminder for me.
1:43
SPEAKER_01: Hey, everybody, when when you appreciate something, a thank you note.
1:47
SPEAKER_01: Like, who even does that anymore?
1:50
SPEAKER_01: Wonderful, wonderful.
1:51
SPEAKER_01: Shout out to Diane and Gold Star Awarded Diane.
1:55
unknown: Come on.
1:57
SPEAKER_01: All right, let's get into it.
1:58
SPEAKER_01: Sentiments improved according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiments Survey.
2:03
SPEAKER_01: Both current conditions and expectations beat forecasts, both up by about 10 points from the previous report.
2:10
SPEAKER_01: Meanwhile, inflation came in below forecasts.
2:13
SPEAKER_01: I might see if Jared has any thoughts on sentiments.
2:17
SPEAKER_01: I know I have an idea how he feels about trading sentiments.
2:21
SPEAKER_01: So we'll we'll get his thoughts on that.
2:24
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2:43
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2:46
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2:51
SPEAKER_01: As far as the markets go, corn crept gingerly higher just after the open with beans and winter wheat adding a few cents.
2:57
SPEAKER_01: Cattle futures were under moderate pressure from the jump, but lean hogs posted decent gains early.
3:03
SPEAKER_01: Corn was up around two cents at lunchtime, beans up seven or eight around then.
3:08
SPEAKER_01: KC wheat was up double digits with Chicago higher as well.
3:11
SPEAKER_01: Cattle continued to fall, but hogs held on to those early gains through the noon hour.
3:17
SPEAKER_01: I'm going to look over here to my plus 500 T4 software, which is what I use, and all of us here on the Egg Bull Squad use plus 500 T4 software for up to the minute futures and options quotes in a host of features plus 500.
3:31
SPEAKER_01: That's plus 500.
3:33
SPEAKER_01: I'm looking at December corn.
3:35
SPEAKER_01: Well, we're not we're not settled yet.
3:37
SPEAKER_01: So it's just after 1 p.m.
3:39
SPEAKER_01: Central time.
3:40
SPEAKER_01: So the markets are still open here on the grain side.
3:42
SPEAKER_01: Dece corn, I've got them up three and a quarter, 467 and a quarter.
3:47
SPEAKER_01: Novi beans having a pretty good day up seven and a half.
3:50
SPEAKER_01: There's a 12 handle on Novi Beans, 12.02 and a half presently.
3:55
SPEAKER_01: It's it's still one o'clock.
3:56
SPEAKER_01: There's time.
3:57
SPEAKER_01: There's time, but hopefully we can hold on to that 12 handle.
4:01
SPEAKER_01: Uh meal was lower, soybean oil higher.
4:03
SPEAKER_01: Let's look at the winter wheats.
4:05
SPEAKER_01: You got Chicago.
4:05
SPEAKER_01: Let's talk December up seven and a quarter presently at 698 and a quarter.
4:10
SPEAKER_01: And the December KC wheat up 13 and three quarters at 745 presently.
4:17
SPEAKER_01: Once again, still not settled.
4:19
SPEAKER_01: So there's there's a little time for things to shimmy and shake just a little bit.
4:24
SPEAKER_01: Over to the livestock.
4:26
SPEAKER_01: Not quite as bad as yesterday in the cattles, but still a down day.
4:30
SPEAKER_01: October uh feeder cattle, buck 90 lower, 332.55.
4:35
SPEAKER_01: Not settled, but at 332.55.
4:39
SPEAKER_01: The October fats down a little over 260, around 220 and 62 and a half.
4:46
SPEAKER_01: Lean hogs.
4:47
SPEAKER_01: Hooray for the hogs.
4:48
SPEAKER_01: They're they're having a good day today.
4:50
SPEAKER_01: We're up.
4:51
SPEAKER_01: I'll look at the December up 70 cents.
4:53
SPEAKER_01: The October presently up 92 and a half.
4:55
SPEAKER_01: And we've been looking at that, looking at that August hog contract.
4:59
SPEAKER_01: Uh yesterday held on to 100.
5:01
SPEAKER_01: Today, up above 101.
5:05
SPEAKER_01: Looks like we're uh probably gonna wind up somewhere around 101.57 or so.
5:11
SPEAKER_01: All right.
5:12
SPEAKER_01: That's how the that's how the market settled out.
5:13
SPEAKER_01: If you if you got bugs under your skin, you gotta know exactly where the markets closed out or whatever.
5:18
SPEAKER_01: You want more deeper information, you want to know what to do about it, go to agbull.com and subscribe.
5:23
SPEAKER_01: We'll we'll we'll get you more information than you will know what to do with.
5:27
SPEAKER_01: And with that, I'm super excited about this.
5:29
SPEAKER_01: I've got special theme song music and everything.
5:33
SPEAKER_01: It's perfect for a Friday kind of feeling.
5:39
SPEAKER_01: Let me bring in Jared Dillion from the Daily Dirt Map and the Macro Dirt Podcast.
5:44
SPEAKER_01: Author, musician, philosopher, thinker, humanitarian.
5:48
SPEAKER_01: Jared, can I throw humanitarian in there as well?
5:51
SPEAKER_00: I like philosopher.
5:52
SPEAKER_00: I like that.
5:53
SPEAKER_00: Nobody's ever said that before, but I like that.
5:55
SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
5:55
SPEAKER_01: Well, dude, I've been I've been reading your stuff this week, and I'll be honest, I wasn't familiar.
6:01
SPEAKER_01: The good folks at Nesvik turned me on to you, and bro, there's there's an awful lot in there.
6:08
SPEAKER_01: I guess beyond beyond philosopher, I would say musician and existentialist.
6:15
SPEAKER_01: If that's the classification, you're my kind of people, brother.
6:18
SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the show, welcome to Xquad.
6:20
SPEAKER_01: Thank you.
6:21
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, this is gonna be great.
6:24
SPEAKER_01: There are some specific things, as I said in the intro, that I that I'd like to talk to you about.
6:28
SPEAKER_01: I don't want to be too directive with this conversation because I feel like you you know what you want to say.
6:35
SPEAKER_01: Well, you will in the moment, probably.
6:38
SPEAKER_01: So let's let's start here.
6:40
SPEAKER_01: I mentioned existentialism, but I also mentioned musician.
6:44
SPEAKER_01: Are you playing Chattanooga this weekend?
6:46
SPEAKER_00: No, I'm so that's not definite yet.
6:48
SPEAKER_00: I'm supposed to play Chattanooga September 19th.
6:51
SPEAKER_02: Okay.
6:52
SPEAKER_00: So that's coming up tonight.
6:53
SPEAKER_00: I am playing at Night We Met in Nashville.
6:57
SPEAKER_00: So excellent.
6:58
SPEAKER_00: It's down in the gulch.
7:00
SPEAKER_00: If you're in Nashville, come on out.
7:01
SPEAKER_00: I'm playing 9 to 11.
7:03
SPEAKER_00: The headliner is a guy named Duranty who's really good.
7:06
SPEAKER_00: So I'm gonna have a great opening set.
7:09
SPEAKER_01: And describe what you do.
7:11
SPEAKER_01: You the term is DJ, and I feel like that's unfair to the art form because people think, oh, well, he spins records on the on the radio, or oh, he plays, you know, sweet Caroline at dances.
7:23
SPEAKER_01: That's not what you do at all, brother.
7:25
SPEAKER_01: Give us a give us a picture of of what you do in those evening hours.
7:30
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so there's when you're talking about DJs, there's basically two types.
7:35
SPEAKER_00: One is like a wedding DJ, he'll play at a wedding.
7:39
SPEAKER_00: If you have a request, he'll play your request.
7:41
SPEAKER_00: He plays party rock is in the house tonight, and the chicken dance, and the Macarena, and the electric slide, and not to denigrate wedding DJs because that definitely is a skill, but I wouldn't call it an art form.
7:54
SPEAKER_00: What I do is an art form, I am looking for very, very obscure underground house and techno records and building a vibe, building a set over the course of the night, and creating an environment in which people want to dance.
8:10
SPEAKER_00: And you know, this this world, if it's foreign to you, if you've never really been exposed to it before, you know, the house heads, the people who really like to listen to house music are very picky about music.
8:22
SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of aficionados, and it's you should really check it out sometime.
8:27
SPEAKER_00: But there's not too many proper underground clubs in the US.
8:32
SPEAKER_00: Nashville is very lucky that they have one and maybe a couple of others that play house music, but let me put it this way there's none in Myrtle Beach, so I have to travel to play.
8:42
SPEAKER_01: So that surprises me.
8:43
SPEAKER_01: I feel like it's that that genre lends itself well to that sort of beachy feeling, but none in Myrtle Beach, eh?
8:51
SPEAKER_00: No, no, no.
8:52
SPEAKER_00: Myrtle Beach is lowbrow and despicable.
8:57
SPEAKER_01: Well, okay.
8:59
SPEAKER_01: I know I saw your your they've uh they've got you on the billing in September out in Seattle.
9:06
SPEAKER_01: Do you go under the name stochastics?
9:08
SPEAKER_01: Is that you?
9:09
SPEAKER_01: Stochastic, yes.
9:10
SPEAKER_01: Stochastic.
9:11
SPEAKER_01: I love that, man.
9:12
SPEAKER_01: I really do.
9:13
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, okay.
9:14
SPEAKER_01: Well, I would see my thing is I'm a musician too.
9:17
SPEAKER_01: I've been gigging since I was 17.
9:19
SPEAKER_01: I'm a little bit off it right now.
9:21
SPEAKER_01: I can barely bring myself to book gigs, and I know what happened.
9:24
SPEAKER_01: I started doing dueling pianos down here in Kansas City, and I love to play the piano, I love to sing.
9:30
SPEAKER_01: I just I I just I think I burnt myself out on it.
9:34
SPEAKER_00: There is dueling pianos plays in Myrtle Beach, actually.
9:37
SPEAKER_00: Oh, really?
9:38
SPEAKER_01: Well, that sounds about right.
9:39
SPEAKER_01: What did you call it?
9:40
SPEAKER_01: Despicable and degenerate?
9:42
SPEAKER_00: No brown and despicable, yes.
9:45
SPEAKER_01: So you see why I'm having a hard time motivating to get to get back out there.
9:49
SPEAKER_01: We'll we'll hit some more some more musical tidbits as as we're going along here, but I we could talk all day about music.
9:57
SPEAKER_01: Let's let's plug your new book, The Awesome Portfolio.
10:00
SPEAKER_01: Yes.
10:01
SPEAKER_01: Where can we get copies?
10:02
SPEAKER_01: What's in there?
10:03
SPEAKER_01: This isn't your first book, is it?
10:05
SPEAKER_00: This is book number seven, actually.
10:07
SPEAKER_00: And where can you get copies?
10:08
SPEAKER_00: You can pre-order it off of Amazon.
10:10
SPEAKER_00: Just search Jared Dillion, the awesome portfolio.
10:13
SPEAKER_00: It comes out September 8th, pretty soon.
10:16
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's coming right up.
10:18
SPEAKER_01: The awesome portfolio, Jared Dillion.
10:22
SPEAKER_01: You can get it on Amazon there.
10:23
SPEAKER_01: I'm looking through my notes, trying to figure out where we want to start here.
10:27
SPEAKER_01: You know what?
10:28
SPEAKER_01: I've I've here's here's how I'm gonna do today's show.
10:31
SPEAKER_01: Because you're a super smart guy and you tread in waters that are, I'm just gonna say it out loud, a little bit unfamiliar to me.
10:40
SPEAKER_01: So ahead of the show, I've been reading the Daily Dirt Nap.
10:44
SPEAKER_01: That's uh a newsletter that you put out each day, usually about three pages.
10:48
SPEAKER_01: There's some there's some pictures in there which which help me a great deal.
10:52
SPEAKER_01: But what I've done is just sort of pulled some things out from this last week's run of the Daily Dirt Nap.
10:59
SPEAKER_01: Can I just can I just throw some stuff at you and give you a give you a moment to expound on some of the ideas that you that you put in there?
11:06
SPEAKER_01: All right, excellent.
11:07
SPEAKER_01: This will help us both out.
11:09
SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna start here from Monday's edition.
11:11
SPEAKER_01: Quote, I'm tired, but my head's on a swivel, trying to put myself in a position where I can gain from disorder, but the disorder never comes.
11:22
SPEAKER_01: And then later on, you said if you're bullish anything, I am bullish on volatility.
11:28
SPEAKER_01: You're trying to gain from the disorder, but the disorder never comes.
11:32
SPEAKER_01: What would that disorder look like?
11:35
SPEAKER_00: Well, you know, back when I used to work at Lehman Brothers from 2001 to 2008, and I discovered Nassim Taleb when he wrote his first book, which was called Dynamic Hedging.
11:47
SPEAKER_00: Most people think his first book was Fooled by Randomness, but it was actually an options book by called Dynamic Hedging.
11:53
SPEAKER_00: I read Fooled by Randomness, and then when The Black Swan came out in 2006, that was probably his best book.
11:59
SPEAKER_00: And he talks a lot about how extreme events are much more common than we think they than we think they are.
12:08
SPEAKER_00: And you know, I'm looking at the market, the stock market, with an incredible amount of leverage in the system.
12:15
SPEAKER_00: So margin debt, not only at all-time highs, like screaming past all-time highs, leverage DTF assets are four and a half times what they were five years ago.
12:25
SPEAKER_00: The average expiration of an option that is traded in stocks is three days because everybody is trading these zero DTE options.
12:35
SPEAKER_00: I mean, this to me is you know just massive signs of speculation.
12:42
SPEAKER_00: And, you know, the market's been consolidating around the highs.
12:45
SPEAKER_00: We're just a little bit about one percent off the all-time highs, maybe a little bit more.
12:49
SPEAKER_00: And I don't know, like at the beginning of the week when I wrote that, the VIX was at 15, now it's at 19.
12:56
SPEAKER_00: We had a little bit of a meltdown in the chip stocks overnight.
13:00
SPEAKER_00: South Korea has been falling apart, you know, with Samsung and Hynix, the South Korea's down about 30%.
13:06
SPEAKER_00: So I'm looking at this, and I think that all the elements are in place for some kind of dislocation in the market.
13:15
SPEAKER_00: And I have no idea what the catalyst will be.
13:17
SPEAKER_00: You never know, but this is the point at which the stock market is most vulnerable.
13:23
SPEAKER_01: So you mentioned South Korea, and I'm I'm flipping through here.
13:28
SPEAKER_01: I can't find the exact note or what day you mentioned it on.
13:32
SPEAKER_01: Here it is.
13:33
SPEAKER_01: You said I never thought we'd be at a point in history where South Korea is determining what's going on in U.S.
13:39
SPEAKER_01: markets, but here we are, and you just mentioned it again in a broader context.
13:45
SPEAKER_01: Talk to me about South Korea and its impact on us.
13:48
SPEAKER_01: And I feel like it's got to go toward the toward the tech sector, and maybe that's separate from from an AI play.
13:56
SPEAKER_01: Get us get us uh up to speed on South Korea and and how they're impacting our markets.
14:01
SPEAKER_00: Well, there's a lot to talk about.
14:02
SPEAKER_00: First of all, the stock market in South Korea bottomed about two years ago on that whole martial law incident, and they got rid of their president, they got a new government, which was a liberal government, and they got some very permissive laws on capital gains taxes, which fueled uh, I mean, just a complete bubble in South Korea.
14:21
SPEAKER_00: Now they have single-name leveraged ETFs, which people are trading that the government is trying to crack down on.
14:27
SPEAKER_00: But one interesting thing about this is that, you know, when people look at emerging markets as an asset class, they think of Brazil, they think of Russia, they think of India, they think of China.
14:40
SPEAKER_00: Emerging markets are up a lot this year.
14:43
SPEAKER_00: I actually don't know the exact amount, but I would guess about 20% or something like that.
14:47
SPEAKER_00: But it's not being led by Brazil and China, it's being led by Korea and Taiwan.
14:53
SPEAKER_00: South Korea is actually considered to be an emerging market, and so is Taiwan.
14:58
SPEAKER_00: So those two stock markets have been leading EM higher, and really what it is, it's all about tech, it's all about semiconductors.
15:04
SPEAKER_00: So the point is that what we used to think of as emerging markets, commodities, things like that, not anymore.
15:11
SPEAKER_00: Now it's all about tech.
15:13
SPEAKER_01: So and is it is it fair to separate AI from tech?
15:18
SPEAKER_01: Are they specialized enough or are are they so intertwined?
15:23
SPEAKER_01: Obviously, you can't have AI without advanced tech, but uh if we're looking at them, can we view it?
15:29
SPEAKER_01: Is it healthy to view them as two two separate?
15:32
SPEAKER_00: It's all part of the same trade, it's all AI, it's the it's it's it's all the same trade.
15:36
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
15:37
SPEAKER_01: Because it it does feel like patience is wearing thin, maybe for for AI stocks.
15:43
SPEAKER_01: Is that the case?
15:45
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, I was you know, I I don't watch TV, I don't have a TV in my office at home.
15:51
SPEAKER_00: Good for you.
15:52
SPEAKER_00: Uh so I you know, I don't have Bloomberg or CNBC or Fox Business, I don't have any of that stuff.
15:58
SPEAKER_00: But there is CNBC on in the office here in Nashville, and I was watching it this morning, and I and the number was like 1.4 trillion of CapEx into AI, which is what has been committed so far or allocated.
16:12
SPEAKER_00: It's it's absolutely mind-boggling.
16:15
SPEAKER_00: And you know, I kind of have a theory on this, and this applies to commodities too, and you should understand this innately, but every shortage is followed by a glut, right?
16:28
SPEAKER_00: It's true in commodities, like eggs.
16:30
SPEAKER_00: Like, do you remember it was like six or 12 months ago we had a shortage of eggs and egg prices skyrocketed, right?
16:37
SPEAKER_00: And guess what?
16:38
SPEAKER_00: Egg prices are now down 99%.
16:41
SPEAKER_00: Every shortage is followed by a glut.
16:43
SPEAKER_00: Well, now we have a shortage of memory, we have a shortage of semiconductors, and you know, capitalism being what it is, prices go up, and producers are incentivized to produce more, and the consumers are disincentivized to consume, and high prices end up being the cure for high prices, and prices come down.
17:04
SPEAKER_00: I mean, in tech, we saw this back in 2000 with optical networking.
17:09
SPEAKER_00: If you remember stocks like JDS Uniphase, right?
17:12
SPEAKER_00: Like optical networking, like cables, like the prices collapse like 99% in a couple of months.
17:19
SPEAKER_00: So this is gonna happen.
17:20
SPEAKER_00: It's gonna happen eventually.
17:22
SPEAKER_00: It's only a matter of time.
17:23
SPEAKER_01: Does the tech sector need you there was one of your episodes or editions that had a really nifty copper versus gold chart?
17:32
SPEAKER_01: And I think if I looked at it right, copper was headed higher, gold headed lower.
17:37
SPEAKER_01: Does the tech sector need copper to follow along in order to increase production?
17:42
SPEAKER_00: Is that it does, and I suspect I suspect that's what's going on with copper.
17:47
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I'm not I'm not necessarily a copper bull, and copper's it's not really going up, it's kind of going sideways relative to gold.
17:53
SPEAKER_00: It's going up.
17:54
SPEAKER_00: You know, gold has been a disaster since January.
17:57
SPEAKER_00: But I'm actually I'm reasonably bullish on gold here.
18:01
SPEAKER_00: I think we're getting down to tag ends on this correction in gold.
18:06
SPEAKER_00: So it's we're pretty close to breaking a downtrend in gold.
18:10
SPEAKER_00: What I want to see in gold is I want to see strong closes in gold.
18:17
SPEAKER_00: I can't read it, it's got to be six months, it's got to be since January that gold closed on the New York high.
18:25
SPEAKER_00: It never closes on the high, it is not closed on the high in six months.
18:30
SPEAKER_00: So you get rallies intraday.
18:32
SPEAKER_00: I mean, you'll even get big spikes.
18:33
SPEAKER_00: You know, you'll get spikes of 60 or 70 bucks, and then it fades into the close, and then it's down the next day, it's down the next morning.
18:40
SPEAKER_00: So I want to see strong close followed by gap up, followed by follow-through in gold before I really am sure that the correction is over.
18:51
SPEAKER_01: You wrote on gold.
18:53
SPEAKER_01: Maybe maybe a tiny amount of doubt.
18:55
SPEAKER_01: Uh is it is good to not have 100% conviction on anything.
19:02
SPEAKER_01: Maybe 96% would be your conviction on gold.
19:06
SPEAKER_01: That uh that higher close putting itself on solid footing above the high there would would probably give you a little more conviction, wouldn't it?
19:15
SPEAKER_01: Is that what you're saying?
19:16
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
19:17
SPEAKER_00: I you just kind of I mean it, you know, as somebody who stares at the screen all day like you, like I want to see positive price action, and the positive price action is very fleeting in gold these days.
19:30
SPEAKER_01: So yeah, yeah.
19:32
SPEAKER_01: What get what gets us back?
19:34
SPEAKER_01: Is this is it was it just a whole bunch of buying from central banks, and that's sort of backed off a little bit.
19:41
SPEAKER_01: What was supporting that run-up in gold and are those factors that come back again?
19:47
SPEAKER_00: Well, the interesting thing about the central bank buying is yes, there was a lot of central bank buying, and and the interesting thing is that central bank buying has started up again.
19:55
SPEAKER_00: China has started buying gold again just in the just in the last month.
19:59
SPEAKER_00: So that has happened.
20:00
SPEAKER_00: What we saw during the Iran War was that you had Middle Eastern central banks, especially Turkey, were sellers of gold to finance purchases of oil, they were selling gold.
20:11
SPEAKER_00: So that was that was the one big macro factor that was putting pressure on gold.
20:15
SPEAKER_01: So, all right, very good.
20:17
SPEAKER_01: Let's stick with the metals just a little bit.
20:19
SPEAKER_01: You said something interesting.
20:20
SPEAKER_01: Silver is one of those assets that can take a 60 to 70 percent drawdown and still be in a bull market.
20:27
SPEAKER_01: Talk a little silver for us, Jared.
20:29
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I don't know if I really have any comments specific to silver other than gold.
20:33
SPEAKER_00: I mean, to me, it's kind of the same thing, but you know, silver as you know, as was demonstrated six months ago, silver is an asset that has a big right tail, right?
20:45
SPEAKER_00: So if you think about a normal distribution and you talk about fat tails, the left tail is obviously something going down, that's a crash, but there's also a right tail, something can explode higher.
20:56
SPEAKER_00: And in its history, silver in 1980 and 2011 and 2026 has exploded higher to the tune of several hundred percent.
21:08
SPEAKER_00: So I like holding some silver along with gold and just with any portfolio, because you have that exposure to the extreme right tail.
21:17
SPEAKER_00: I sold a little bit of silver when it ran up to 120.
21:21
SPEAKER_00: I had silver and silver miners.
21:23
SPEAKER_00: I probably sold about a third of what I owned, which was not enough.
21:27
SPEAKER_00: I'm happy I sold some, but it'll take a few years.
21:31
SPEAKER_00: But ultimately, I think silver is getting to 200, maybe to 300, but at least 200, I think is where it's going.
21:37
SPEAKER_01: So all right, very good.
21:40
SPEAKER_01: You know what?
21:40
SPEAKER_01: Let's uh let's take a pause here.
21:42
SPEAKER_01: I I appreciate your comments.
21:44
SPEAKER_01: I want to I want to get back to the DJ world just a little bit because I just I can't leave it alone.
21:49
SPEAKER_01: And you and I do have, I'm sure, some shared experiences.
21:53
SPEAKER_01: Now, when you go out and DJ, are you dragging gear along with it?
21:57
SPEAKER_01: You must have a setup.
21:58
SPEAKER_00: No, I mean generally a club has all the equipment I need.
22:02
SPEAKER_00: I just need to bring a flash drive in my headphones.
22:05
SPEAKER_02: Okay.
22:05
SPEAKER_00: I have this, I have this little case, it's got a handle on it.
22:08
SPEAKER_00: I I have uh some USB drives and I have my headphones and that's all I need.
22:13
SPEAKER_01: So you've been at this for quite a while, I suspect.
22:16
SPEAKER_01: Do you have any gear regrets over the years?
22:21
SPEAKER_00: That's a that's it's actually an interesting question.
22:24
SPEAKER_00: So I I when I first started learning, I had the Pioneer CDJ 1000s, which you actually put CDs into.
22:32
SPEAKER_00: I started in 2008, which was a little bit after vinyl, but I started DJing off of CDs, and then I got sick of the CDs and I started playing off of Ableton.
22:41
SPEAKER_00: And Ableton is this incredibly complicated German software, but I use it every freaking day, dude.
22:48
SPEAKER_00: Yes, so you can actually, I mean, most people use it in production mode, but I actually used it in performance mode, and I had an Akai APC 40, which was a controller for the Ableton software.
23:01
SPEAKER_00: So I would I would travel around, I bring my laptop, I bring my bring my controller, and I would play with that.
23:07
SPEAKER_00: That got to be I did that for about eight years, and it got to be annoying because you know when you go to a DJ booth, they have the thing, they have everything all set up, and then you got to move equipment around and put your controller down, and the club doesn't like it, and everybody gets all annoyed.
23:23
SPEAKER_00: And so so I I gave up on the controller and I went back to the CDJs, and I've been doing that ever since.
23:29
SPEAKER_00: So excellent.
23:31
SPEAKER_01: Excellent.
23:31
SPEAKER_01: That's a uh that's a nifty little window into your world that uh I hope our viewers appreciate.
23:38
SPEAKER_01: This is this is a little granular, Jared, that we're getting here, but uh I hope hope people appreciate a deeper dive.
23:44
SPEAKER_01: Let's get back to to your words from the Daily Dirt Nap.
23:48
SPEAKER_01: You said not only is inflation not a concern, but before long we will be worried about deflation rather than inflation.
23:56
SPEAKER_01: Can we talk about that?
23:58
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, I think you know, today is a very good analog to the dot-com bubble.
24:03
SPEAKER_00: I think there's a lot of similarities, there's a lot of differences.
24:07
SPEAKER_00: You know, in 2000 there were 2,000 different dot-com stocks.
24:11
SPEAKER_00: Today it's only a handful of semiconductor stocks and a couple of big IPOs.
24:17
SPEAKER_00: But I think I I think it's very I think they're very similar.
24:21
SPEAKER_00: And if you remember what happened after the dot-com bubble, Greenspan was so concerned about the deflationary force of the stock market crashing that he took interest rates from six and a half percent to one percent, and he left them there for about two and a half years.
24:39
SPEAKER_00: And that, of course, is what kicked off the housing bubble because we had Fed funds at one percent for a number of years, and mortgage rates were around four percent, and that kicked off the housing bubble.
24:51
SPEAKER_00: Warsh today is very hawkish.
24:54
SPEAKER_00: All he talks about is price stability.
24:56
SPEAKER_00: He doesn't really talk about employment, he's not talking about the dual mandate.
24:59
SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of hawkish members on the FOMC, including Beth Hammock in Cleveland.
25:04
SPEAKER_00: So the Fed is talking tough about inflation, but really I think they're fighting the last war.
25:11
SPEAKER_00: I think inflation is not really a concern.
25:13
SPEAKER_00: As we saw from the last CPI number, CPI came down seven tenths that on the headline from 4.2 to 3.5, right?
25:22
SPEAKER_00: PPI was down accordingly.
25:24
SPEAKER_00: And you're gonna see, you know, in oil prices went down a lot.
25:27
SPEAKER_00: They went from 120 to 70.
25:28
SPEAKER_00: Now they're up a little bit, but oil prices have come down a lot.
25:32
SPEAKER_00: I am not really concerned about inflationary forces here.
25:35
SPEAKER_00: I think if the tech bubble were to burst, it would unleash massive deflationary forces.
25:42
SPEAKER_00: I the Fed doesn't know it yet, but I think they're gonna be cutting.
25:46
SPEAKER_00: I think they're gonna be cutting a year from now, maybe six months from now, probably a year from now.
25:51
SPEAKER_00: And that's a big bet that I have on right now.
25:54
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
25:54
SPEAKER_01: You you've accused Walsh of uh quote speaking loudly and carrying a small stick.
25:59
SPEAKER_01: I kind of like that.
26:02
SPEAKER_00: I look, I like Walsh a lot.
26:04
SPEAKER_00: I think he's terrific.
26:05
SPEAKER_00: I think he's gonna be a great Fed chairman.
26:07
SPEAKER_00: I like that he hangs out with Drucken Miller.
26:10
SPEAKER_00: He did a pretty good job when he was on the Fed the first time around when he was, you know, he was appointed in 2006 by George W.
26:16
SPEAKER_00: Bush.
26:17
SPEAKER_00: He was instrumental during the financial crisis.
26:19
SPEAKER_00: He's got a he's got an incredible pedigree, Harvard and Stanford.
26:23
SPEAKER_00: I mean, you he he this guy this guy came tumbling out of the womb like a central banker, right?
26:29
SPEAKER_00: Like, and the other thing, the other thing is is that he's I think he has bigger ambitions.
26:35
SPEAKER_00: Like, I think he wants to be president, I think he wants to do what Carney did, and be you know, Carney was head of the Bank of Canada and obviously became Prime Minister of Canada.
26:44
SPEAKER_00: I think Warsh, I think this is a stepping stone for Walsh.
26:47
SPEAKER_00: So I think he wants to do a really good job.
26:50
SPEAKER_00: Is that what America needs?
26:53
SPEAKER_00: What a central banker that became president?
26:55
SPEAKER_00: Yep.
26:57
SPEAKER_00: Is that moving forward?
26:59
SPEAKER_01: Is that what we need?
27:00
SPEAKER_00: I mean, look, like if if the central banker we're talking about is a PhD economist from Berkeley, I would say the answer is no.
27:08
SPEAKER_00: But Walsh is more of a practitioner, he's more pragmatic.
27:12
SPEAKER_00: I think we could do a lot worse than Kevin Walsh's president.
27:16
SPEAKER_01: So okay, that's interesting.
27:18
SPEAKER_01: All right, very, very good.
27:19
SPEAKER_01: You mentioned you you've mentioned bubbles a couple of times, and you you had a a pretty decent definition for how you know if you are in a bubble.
27:30
SPEAKER_01: Do you do you remember what you wrote on that?
27:32
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
27:33
SPEAKER_00: The definition of a bubble is when people are making money all out of proportion to their intelligence and work ethic.
27:41
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
27:42
SPEAKER_01: So are we in are we in a bubble now?
27:44
SPEAKER_01: And if so, what's uh what's the air in that bubble?
27:48
SPEAKER_01: The air?
27:49
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
27:50
SPEAKER_01: What's pushing the sides out on the bubble?
27:52
SPEAKER_01: Are we talking, is it just over enthusiasm over over AI or tech stocks like we talked about earlier?
27:59
SPEAKER_00: I mean, you know, I remember during the housing bubble, this was around 2006-2007, in Fortune magazine, on their cover was some greasy-haired real estate agent with like a flip phone up to his ear, like making deals on real estate.
28:17
SPEAKER_00: And I was like, okay, that's it.
28:19
SPEAKER_00: Like, that's the that's the top.
28:21
SPEAKER_00: You know, I I know some people personally who have started data centers, who are working at data centers, and they're killing it, they're absolutely killing it.
28:30
SPEAKER_00: You know, I it's it's tough for me to go into detail because I don't I don't want to name anybody's names, but I know I know one guy in particular that made several hundred million off of uh cell phone towers.
28:42
SPEAKER_00: He had a he had a business with cell phone towers, and then he started building data centers, and he's worth about six billion.
28:49
SPEAKER_00: So, yes, people are people people are getting stupendously rich, all out of the proportion to their intelligence or work ethic.
28:57
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
28:58
SPEAKER_01: It it feels like when it comes to the commodification of artificial intelligence, I think you said something like it need it needs to all explode and and go to zero before it can come back and be what it needs to be for the next phase.
29:18
SPEAKER_01: Could we talk about that uh Scosh?
29:20
SPEAKER_00: Well, if you if you look at any technological innovation, and I I think the dot-com bubble again is a good is a good analog.
29:29
SPEAKER_00: What you see is I'm gonna try to draw a chart like on the screen here, and I'm gonna do it backwards so you can see it.
29:34
SPEAKER_00: Okay, but there's a big investment boom, which is a bubble that eventually crashes and goes down 90%, and then it goes sideways for 10 years, right?
29:47
SPEAKER_00: And it's during this sideways period that all the innovation, all the technical uh technological advancement happens, and then after 10 years, you get a real boom that represents the actual technological advancements of the technology, right?
30:03
SPEAKER_00: So that basically happened with the internet.
30:05
SPEAKER_00: In the internet in the late 90s, you know, really there were thousands of websites, and if you went to 2012, 2014, you had Facebook and Twitter and Yahoo and a couple others, and the internet as we know it, it completely transformed and became what it is today, right?
30:25
SPEAKER_00: So we don't really know what the potential of AI is, we don't know what it's gonna look like in 10 or 20 years.
30:34
SPEAKER_00: But I can tell you that you know, as somebody who uses a couple different AI models, it is commodified.
30:40
SPEAKER_00: Like I don't I you know, I uh like I use perplexity mostly when I'm doing like search, and I'll use Claude when I'm trying to like solve problems or do PowerPoints or stuff like that, but really they're all the same, right?
30:54
SPEAKER_00: So I don't know how I I'm not a futurist, I can't predict how this is gonna turn out, but my guess is that we're gonna have a real shakeout, and then over the ensuing 10-year period, we're gonna see what happens, right?
31:07
SPEAKER_00: So if you went back to 2000 and you were picking stocks and you said, Okay, I was gonna hold these stocks for 20 years, you basically only have like a one in 500 chance of like maybe if you bought Amazon and you took an 85% drawdown and you held on for 20 years, you would have made money.
31:26
SPEAKER_00: But the vast majority of these businesses disappeared, you know.
31:30
SPEAKER_00: So, unless you are incredibly lucky or incredibly smart, it's very, very hard to pick winners here.
31:36
SPEAKER_00: I can't do it, I don't have the ability to do it.
31:39
SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, very good.
31:41
SPEAKER_01: By the way, on the uh you don't need to necessarily comment on this.
31:44
SPEAKER_01: Maybe you want to, but you said luck, and you wrote, luck will never find you in your apartment.
31:51
SPEAKER_01: And you put an exclamation point at the end of that.
31:53
SPEAKER_01: I I love that, bro.
31:54
SPEAKER_01: You gotta put yourself out there, am I right?
31:56
SPEAKER_01: Yep, yep, yep.
31:58
SPEAKER_01: Okay, you made comments on Argentina.
32:02
SPEAKER_01: You referenced a Bloomberg article, said how the country is kind of looking for a centrist alternative.
32:08
SPEAKER_01: Imagine that, what a concept! A centrist alternative, but all they have is far right and far left.
32:13
SPEAKER_01: Terrific, you wrote.
32:23
SPEAKER_01: My mind went straight to New York City, bro, with their new mayor and and the this the surge of the Democrat Socialist Party there.
32:34
SPEAKER_01: How uh how precarious do you view the political front in in the United States right now?
32:40
SPEAKER_01: Well, I've exploded question, isn't it?
32:42
SPEAKER_01: I'm sorry.
32:42
SPEAKER_01: I'm sorry.
32:43
SPEAKER_00: I'm perfectly prepared to answer it, but I gotta I gotta tell you, I wrote a piece about this on my Substack.
32:49
SPEAKER_00: I have a blog on Substack.
32:51
SPEAKER_00: It's called We're Gonna Get Those Bastards.
32:52
SPEAKER_00: And about two weeks ago, I wrote a piece.
32:55
SPEAKER_00: I wrote it on 4th of July, and I just called it Happy Independence Day.
32:59
SPEAKER_00: And I talked about the rise of democratic socialism in the US.
33:03
SPEAKER_00: And there's I I I have a whole bunch to say.
33:06
SPEAKER_00: I I'm gonna I'm just gonna boil it down to the essentials here.
33:09
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yes, I think that far-left extremism is a huge threat.
33:15
SPEAKER_00: However, the US has a history of not voting for extreme candidates, right?
33:23
SPEAKER_00: So if you go back to 1964 when it was Goldwater versus LBJ, Goldwater was very far right.
33:29
SPEAKER_00: I actually like Goldwater, but he was very far right.
33:32
SPEAKER_00: And and they said, in your guts, you know he's nuts, and he lost in a landslide to LBJ.
33:38
SPEAKER_00: And then in 1972, it was George Mc George McGovern versus Richard Nixon, and McGovern was the furthest left candidate we had ever had, and that was the biggest popular vote landslide we've had in history was Nixon versus McGovern.
33:53
SPEAKER_00: So I think that if we have somebody like a Marco Rubio running in 2028 versus an AOC or somebody like her, I think it's gonna be very lopsided.
34:06
SPEAKER_00: You know, Rubio is not necessarily centrist, but he's sane, right?
34:11
SPEAKER_00: I'm not a big fan of JD Vance.
34:14
SPEAKER_00: I don't like his economics.
34:15
SPEAKER_00: He he has far left economics.
34:17
SPEAKER_00: I don't like his conspiracy theories, I don't like what he's become.
34:21
SPEAKER_00: He used to be many years ago, he was more like a Reagan Republican.
34:24
SPEAKER_00: What he's become is kind of dispiriting.
34:27
SPEAKER_00: I'm hoping that Rubio is the candidate in 2028.
34:30
SPEAKER_00: So okay.
34:32
SPEAKER_01: Well, that's interesting.
34:32
SPEAKER_01: Thanks for that.
34:33
SPEAKER_01: Let's we'll we'll stick in the in the political world here.
34:37
SPEAKER_01: We'll just take a little different vent.
34:40
SPEAKER_01: You had you had kind words for Senator Graham after his tragic passing.
34:44
SPEAKER_01: Do you want to expound?
34:46
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, so I live in South Carolina.
34:49
SPEAKER_00: Lindsey Graham was my senator, he was my senator for many years.
34:53
SPEAKER_00: I tend to be less interventionist than Lindsey Graham.
34:58
SPEAKER_00: I think we will regret our involvement in Ukraine.
35:02
SPEAKER_00: I think we will regret our involvement in Iran, but nonetheless, I have a lot of respect for Lindsey Graham as a human being, as a person.
35:10
SPEAKER_00: He was funny.
35:12
SPEAKER_00: You know, the some of the anecdotes that are coming out about him like are just hilarious.
35:16
SPEAKER_00: He was, you know, next to Al Franken, he was probably the funniest guy in the Senate.
35:20
SPEAKER_00: He he like he had incredible constituent services.
35:25
SPEAKER_00: If you called up Lindsey Graham with the problem, like he had next level constituent services, he just cared about people, he cared about the issues.
35:33
SPEAKER_00: He never enriched himself from public office.
35:36
SPEAKER_00: When he died, he had a net worth of one and a half million.
35:39
SPEAKER_00: And all these republic all these senators and congressmen are becoming multi-millionaires in Congress.
35:45
SPEAKER_00: Look at Nancy Pelosi, and he never did any of that.
35:48
SPEAKER_00: He was just a really good and decent person in politics, which is very hard to find nowadays.
35:54
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it was a uh a shocking and and sudden loss.
35:59
SPEAKER_01: Okay, we're gonna we're gonna begin to wind down slowly here.
36:03
SPEAKER_01: I want you to to define a term that you use in the Daily Dirt nap, a panicin.
36:10
SPEAKER_01: What is a pannikin and why should I not be one?
36:13
SPEAKER_00: Well, that's a Trump term, that's not my term, a panicin.
36:16
SPEAKER_00: Somebody who panics all the time.
36:17
SPEAKER_01: So I don't watch I don't watch TV either, so uh we'll help each other out.
36:22
SPEAKER_00: That's a Trump term, don't be a pannikin.
36:25
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
36:26
SPEAKER_01: But you've adopted the term, you you seem to embrace the concept.
36:30
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, I was a pannequin 20 years ago at Lehman Brothers.
36:35
SPEAKER_00: Uh these days I kind of view things with a little more equanimity.
36:38
SPEAKER_00: So yeah.
36:40
SPEAKER_01: Isn't that kind of what you were paid to do though in Lehman Brothers to be a pannequin?
36:44
SPEAKER_00: Yes, part of the gig, yeah, which is why I have all the gray hair now.
36:47
SPEAKER_01: So how about this one?
36:50
SPEAKER_01: I'm not in the investment business, I'm in the happy business.
36:53
SPEAKER_01: Like, no worries.
36:55
SPEAKER_01: This is a book about how to be happy with your money.
36:59
SPEAKER_01: You're in the happy business, eh?
37:01
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and that's you know, you mentioned the awesome portfolio at the top, which is my book that's coming out in September.
37:08
SPEAKER_00: What that book is about is really about how to be happy saving for retirement.
37:14
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
37:15
SPEAKER_00: And and I'll get into the nuts and bolts a little bit.
37:18
SPEAKER_00: The conventional wisdom is that you just buy an SP 500 index fund and you dollar cost average it.
37:23
SPEAKER_00: But the problem is that when you invest in an index, you get the returns, which are great, but you also get the volatility, which is terrible, and the drawdowns.
37:33
SPEAKER_00: So, what I invented was a portfolio that is stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate 20% each.
37:40
SPEAKER_00: And this portfolio gives you a little bit less than the SP 500 with half the volatility, and the drawdowns are minimal, right?
37:50
SPEAKER_00: And so that's what this book is about is about the construction of this portfolio, which allows you to sleep at night.
37:57
SPEAKER_00: So you're, I mean, 56 56% of people own stocks right now.
38:03
SPEAKER_00: It's insane.
38:03
SPEAKER_00: We don't no other country in the world does this, right?
38:07
SPEAKER_00: Like most other people save in the bank or in the bond market.
38:11
SPEAKER_00: It's only the U.S.
38:12
SPEAKER_00: that does this.
38:14
SPEAKER_01: The awesome portfolio, Jared Dillion is my guest today.
38:20
SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna I'm gonna slink our way toward the weather here, but I'm I just want to make sure we haven't talked about the bonds, bond market at all.
38:28
SPEAKER_01: And I feel like that could be a whole nother show.
38:30
SPEAKER_01: Maybe we need to to set up some time when you and I can talk about bonds again.
38:35
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
38:35
SPEAKER_01: I I think I read that you're you're hoping that the economist will feature bonds on the cover so we can we can shake it loose a little bit.
38:43
SPEAKER_00: Well, I mean, uh just one thing about the I'll say about the bond market.
38:46
SPEAKER_00: So Hoysington Asset Management, which is run by Lacey Hunt, they were the biggest bond bulls for many, many years, really for like 30 years.
38:55
SPEAKER_00: And you know, poor Lacey, he was uh limit-long bonds when tenure notes got to 35 basis points.
39:03
SPEAKER_00: He did not nail the dismount.
39:04
SPEAKER_00: He's been bullish bonds for the last five years, and now with yields with tens at 4.6 or something like that, he goes bearish.
39:13
SPEAKER_00: So, you know, they do great analysis, they do great work.
39:16
SPEAKER_00: I have a lot of respect for Lacey's intellect, but this kind of seems to me like a throwing in the towel sort of moment when the last bond bull throws in the towel, it's usually a time to get bullish.
39:29
SPEAKER_01: I have really enjoyed getting to know the daily dirt nap in particular, Jared.
39:34
SPEAKER_01: I wonder if I I know that my viewers would love it as well.
39:38
SPEAKER_01: How do people get in touch with that if they wanna if they want to know more about the daily dirt nap?
39:42
SPEAKER_00: Just uh go to daily dirtnap.com, hit the subscribe button, an email comes up, and if you mention the podcast, then I'll give you a 50% discount.
39:52
SPEAKER_01: Wow, looky there.
39:53
SPEAKER_01: All right, you know, I I'm starting to get that Friday feeling just a little bit, brother.
39:59
SPEAKER_01: And I hope you are too.
40:00
SPEAKER_01: We've been talking shop for a while.
40:02
SPEAKER_01: You're from South Carolina.
40:04
SPEAKER_01: We talk an awful lot about Midwestern weather here.
40:07
SPEAKER_01: Obviously, we're focused on crops and livestock and and the like.
40:12
SPEAKER_01: What's uh how's the weather been in South Carolina?
40:15
SPEAKER_00: It's been very dry.
40:16
SPEAKER_00: We've had drought in South Carolina.
40:18
SPEAKER_00: This this information is about two weeks old, but as of about two weeks ago, we generally had about 26 inches of rain year to date.
40:27
SPEAKER_00: This year we only have 11.
40:28
SPEAKER_00: It's been very hot and dry, not a lot of rain.
40:32
SPEAKER_00: So that's what's that's what's going on with the weather in South Carolina.
40:36
SPEAKER_01: I'm here in KC right now.
40:37
SPEAKER_01: We're cloudy and and uh bumping up against 90 degrees.
40:41
SPEAKER_01: We had a little rain, a little thunderstorm about this time yesterday.
40:45
SPEAKER_01: I've got the National Weather Service forecast here.
40:48
SPEAKER_01: Widespread life-threatening flash and urban flooding continues in south central Texas.
40:52
SPEAKER_01: Jared, they're underwater in Texas down there.
40:55
SPEAKER_01: I feel bad for them.
40:56
SPEAKER_01: Considerable flooding impacts possible across central Texas.
41:00
SPEAKER_01: Wildfire smoke is impacting air quality across much of the Great Lakes region into southern New England and the mid-Atlantic, and monsoonal thunderstorms may produce isolated discattered flash flooding across the southwest into the Great Basin.
41:14
SPEAKER_01: Jared, if I can if I can hold on to you for just a little bit longer.
41:18
SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna cut you loose in a few minutes here, but first I'd I'd like to present to you, if you're interested, some items of mild interest.
41:26
SPEAKER_01: Are you ready to be mildly interested?
41:28
SPEAKER_01: I think you'll find some of these quite ironic.
41:30
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
41:31
SPEAKER_01: All right.
41:32
SPEAKER_01: Today, July 17 is the day two things happened in history.
41:38
SPEAKER_01: July 17, the day Czar Nicholas II and his family were executed, and the day Disneyland opened to the press.
41:48
SPEAKER_01: How's that for a little irony?
41:50
SPEAKER_01: The Lion King is nominally about following your destiny and reclaiming your birthright.
41:57
SPEAKER_01: Uh, according to uh popculture madness.com, it's actually about how Hakuna Matata as a life philosophy is irresponsible avoidance behavior that allows injustice to flourish while you eat bugs, and the jungle Simba eventually figures this out.
42:12
SPEAKER_01: Timon and Pumba did not.
42:15
SPEAKER_01: Now you had to have seen The Lion King, yeah?
42:16
SPEAKER_01: No, I never saw it.
42:18
SPEAKER_01: You never saw the Lion King.
42:19
SPEAKER_01: Wow.
42:20
SPEAKER_01: It's you know, there's there's sort of an existential crisis built right into that movie.
42:25
SPEAKER_01: You might like it.
42:25
SPEAKER_01: You might like it.
42:26
SPEAKER_01: It's got well, it's got Elton John in it, but other than that, it's it's uh pretty good.
42:31
SPEAKER_01: How about this?
42:32
SPEAKER_01: Did you ever see that movie Ishtar?
42:34
SPEAKER_01: Dustin Hoffman and Warren Beatty night 1987?
42:36
SPEAKER_01: All right.
42:43
SPEAKER_01: Yes, and there are those who who absolutely love it.
42:47
SPEAKER_01: It's these two 40-year-old dudes who are trying to make it in the music biz, and they're just not good, but but they're absolutely not going to give up on their dreams, and then somehow it's the CIA and Middle Eastern Intrigue and everything.
42:58
SPEAKER_01: It's it's a bizarre show.
43:00
SPEAKER_01: I just wondered if if maybe you hadn't seen it.
43:02
SPEAKER_01: And just just one more here, really quick.
43:05
SPEAKER_01: Today is the uh birthday born in 1928 of Vince Garaldi, American jazz pianist and composer, best known for writing the music for Charlie Brown.
43:14
SPEAKER_01: If you've ever heard uh Christmas time, this is this is that guy that wrote that.
43:20
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
43:21
SPEAKER_01: Linus and Lucy, bro.
43:22
SPEAKER_01: As a piano player, everybody always wants to hear that.
43:24
SPEAKER_01: That's one of those, it's that's the free bird of piano players.
43:28
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
43:29
SPEAKER_00: I I I'm a DJ, but I have a huge appreciation for like piano bass drums trio.
43:34
SPEAKER_00: Like, I love that.
43:35
SPEAKER_00: I love that.
43:36
SPEAKER_01: Excellent.
43:37
SPEAKER_01: Well, that sort of brings us to today's ag squawk injustice.
43:41
SPEAKER_01: We're almost to the finish line, Jared, but I'm going to be unjust to you as I am to all of my guests around this part of the show.
43:50
SPEAKER_01: This is the part of the show I call the ag squawk injustice.
43:56
SPEAKER_01: And what I do is I ask a completely unfair question that I myself am unprepared to answer, but it's just something that we do, something I'm generally incapable of doing myself, Jared.
44:09
SPEAKER_01: Are you ready to take a swing at today's egg bull injustice?
44:13
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
44:14
SPEAKER_00: Can you spell Giraldi as in U-A-R-A-L-D-I?
44:22
SPEAKER_01: You absolutely nailed it.
44:23
SPEAKER_01: That was the injustice.
44:26
SPEAKER_01: But you were not to be accosted by today's Egg Squawk injustice, dude.
44:32
SPEAKER_01: Jared, it's been terrific getting to know you, brother.
44:35
SPEAKER_01: Um, I I hope we can talk again sometime.
44:38
SPEAKER_01: I'm loving the daily dirt nap.
44:40
SPEAKER_01: Um, I'm I'm interested in your book as well, the uh the awesome portfolio, right?
44:46
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
44:47
SPEAKER_01: Um, would you would you come back again sometime, Jared, so we can talk some more?
44:51
SPEAKER_01: I feel like I've I've had uh I've had brain surgery just now.
44:55
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
44:56
SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna be reflecting on this and digesting the things that you've said said for quite a while.
45:01
SPEAKER_01: I appreciate you, brother.
45:02
SPEAKER_01: Jared Dillion, everybody.
45:03
SPEAKER_01: Oh, where are you playing tonight?
45:04
SPEAKER_01: Down in Nashville.
45:05
SPEAKER_01: If you're in Nashville, go out to Night We Met.
45:09
SPEAKER_01: Night We M.
45:10
SPEAKER_00: It opens at eight.
45:11
SPEAKER_00: I'm playing from nine to eleven.
45:13
SPEAKER_01: Nine to eleven?
45:14
SPEAKER_01: That's a long stretch, brother.
45:15
SPEAKER_00: Yep.
45:16
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
45:16
SPEAKER_00: Stay hydrated.
45:17
SPEAKER_01: Stay hydrated.
45:18
SPEAKER_00: Actually, you don't want to stay hydrated, D Jane, because then you'll have to pee.
45:22
SPEAKER_01: So good advice.
45:25
SPEAKER_01: See, it's just good advice right up to the end, man.
45:28
SPEAKER_01: Good stuff.
45:30
SPEAKER_01: Thanks everybody for watching.
45:31
SPEAKER_01: It's Friday.
45:32
SPEAKER_01: We're uh looking forward to next week.
45:34
SPEAKER_01: We've got Jed first thing in the morning, Monday, and then I'll be back Monday afternoon.
45:39
SPEAKER_01: If you haven't had a chance, go to AgBull.com and check out yesterday's chat with the fellas and uh visit agbol.com or call 855-737 Farm for the most important subscription of your life.
45:52
SPEAKER_01: I'm Davis Michelson.
45:54
SPEAKER_01: Thanks to Jared Dillion.
45:55
SPEAKER_01: We'll see you after the weekend.
45:57
SPEAKER_01: Be safe, everybody.