Latest / Simply Bitcoin / BREAKING: The Money Printer Just Went Into OVERDRIVE!! | EP 1396

Transcript

BREAKING: The Money Printer Just Went Into OVERDRIVE!! | EP 1396 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Literally yesterday we got confirmation that the Fed is
• 0:03
  starting the next round of money printing money printer go Burr.
• 0:09
  And we just got confirmation yesterday and Bitcoin ran from
• 0:14
  16 K to 126 K while the Fed was tightening the money supply over
• 0:20
  the last three years. But what happens to Bitcoin when
• 0:24
  we know the Fed's balance sheet is about to explode?
• 0:28
  And of course, I got my legend Gary Cohost who held down the
• 0:32
  show yesterday, optimist fields to go down the source material
• 0:36
  for you guys and make the case Opti.
• 0:39
  Is it true the money printers about to go Burr?
• 0:42
  And what does that mean for Bitcoin?
• 0:45
  Yeah, they, they, they officially announced it.
• 0:48
  But let me pull up the source material here and I I am going
• 0:52
  to kind of cover a lot of stuff here, guys.
• 0:54
  It will be rapid fire like always.
• 0:56
  But yes, we got a lot of source material And also we do have
• 0:59
  Riley. He is hold on, let me get it
• 1:01
  right because it's very important executive Bitcoin
• 1:04
  advisor at Bitcoin well, head of the OR, I don't know head, but
• 1:08
  leading the Bitcoin well infinite team.
• 1:10
  So we're going to talk about with him a little later.
• 1:12
  But here all right, guys, again, I got to cover a lot of stuff.
• 1:16
  So I will be ranting a little bit.
• 1:17
  I will be covering a lot of source material just so I can
• 1:20
  give you kind of a full grasp of what's going on.
• 1:24
  I'm going to start with this tweet here.
• 1:25
  As you guys saw yesterday, if you hung out throughout the
• 1:29
  whole show, we did get a 25 bit rate cut yesterday.
• 1:33
  But one of the things that I did kind of miss because we were
• 1:36
  just kind of talking about what the rate cuts were going to do
• 1:38
  to the to the price. You guys know you love watching
• 1:41
  the one minute chart with me. So we watch the one minute
• 1:43
  chart. But one of the things that did
• 1:45
  come out of this that I think is super interesting and really
• 1:49
  kind of tells us of where we are heading is that they essentially
• 1:53
  announced the money printer is warming up, it's about to go
• 1:57
  Burr, it's going to go into OverDrive.
• 1:59
  So here's a basic summary of what the Fed decision said
• 2:02
  yesterday. First, of course, Fed rate cuts
• 2:04
  by 25 bits and 3rd rate cut of 2025.
• 2:08
  Next, the Fed will consider quote extend and timing of
• 2:11
  additional adjustments. So again, I don't think we've
• 2:14
  really gotten full market certainty yet.
• 2:18
  It sounds like we might get some more rate cuts.
• 2:20
  Obviously, with the volatility that we saw yesterday, it does
• 2:23
  seem like the markets are very uncertain about what the Feds
• 2:26
  going to do. Are we going to cut more?
• 2:29
  We haven't really, we really aren't getting the best signals
• 2:31
  right now. And I think This is why you're
• 2:33
  seeing a lot of volatility at in Bitcoin in particular.
• 2:36
  And then of course, Fed will begin purchasing U.S.
• 2:38
  Treasury bills on December 12th, so tomorrow and then the Fed
• 2:42
  will buy $40 billion of U.S. Treasury bills in 30 days, which
• 2:47
  is the big news. This list literally means the
• 2:49
  money printer is going on. FOMC members Schmidt and
• 2:53
  Goolsbee, crazy name Goolsbee dissent in favor of no change.
• 2:57
  And then Fed signals rate cuts may be done for now.
• 3:00
  Of course, Fed Chair Powell may be halting rate cuts.
• 3:03
  Again, this is something that we we really don't know what's
• 3:07
  going on over there. They say they're going to cut or
• 3:09
  stop cutting rates. Next thing you know, they're
• 3:11
  going to, you know, cut rates. Obviously they're feeling a lot
• 3:15
  of pressure coming from the Trump administration.
• 3:17
  But the big kind of maybe subtle cue here is the Fed will buy 40
• 3:24
  billion dollars of U.S. Treasury bills in the next 30
• 3:27
  days. Now, if you aren't that familiar
• 3:29
  with the macro talk, I was literally talking with one of my
• 3:32
  buddies yesterday. He's like, dude, I don't even
• 3:33
  understand what Fed rate cuts mean, what all this stuff means.
• 3:38
  Well, I'm going to try to break this down for you as simply as
• 3:41
  possible. I will be using a lot of tweets
• 3:43
  from more, I would, I would say experienced macro people.
• 3:47
  Of course, I'm going to start with the GOAT, Lynn Alden, and
• 3:50
  she highlights this portion here.
• 3:52
  Of course, increase the the system open market account
• 3:55
  holdings of securities through purchases of treasury bills and
• 3:59
  if needed, other treasury securities with remaining
• 4:01
  maturities of three years or less to maintain an ample level
• 4:05
  of reserves. And she tweets with the gradual
• 4:08
  print begins. Remember, QT just ended December
• 4:12
  1st, 10 days later. What do they say?
• 4:15
  Oh yeah, hey, we're going to buy $40 billion of treasuries again.
• 4:19
  And like Nico mentioned earlier, I I had actually had this a
• 4:21
  little later in here, but I'll pull it in right now.
• 4:24
  Joe Consorti made a really good point here.
• 4:27
  You got to remember Bitcoin managed to climb from 16 K to
• 4:32
  126 K as the Fed reduced its balance sheet for three years.
• 4:37
  And now that the Fed is expanding the balance sheet to
• 4:40
  increase bank reserves, all bets are off.
• 4:43
  This is why it's so important. Again, I've been telling you
• 4:46
  what this really means. They're expanding the money
• 4:48
  supply. They've been telling us for a
• 4:50
  while what they want to do And, and some of you guys been
• 4:53
  trolling me about it's like, oh, Trump isn't going to tell you
• 4:56
  what they're going to do Opti like you're, you're reading in
• 4:59
  between the lines. I'm like, dude, they're
• 5:01
  literally projecting and telegraphing what they're going
• 5:04
  to do and then they do it. Whether you think Trump tells
• 5:08
  you everything is besides the point.
• 5:10
  They've been actively telling us their playbook.
• 5:13
  They want to cut rates and then of course they're going to
• 5:15
  expand the money supply. They only have two choices.
• 5:18
  As Lynn Olden always says, nothing stops this train.
• 5:21
  They have to expand the money supply.
• 5:23
  They want their monetary policy and they can only really do this
• 5:27
  via two ways. It's through interest rates and
• 5:31
  then it's to expanding the money supply.
• 5:34
  One will blow up the whole system, which is manipulating
• 5:37
  the interest rates. The other one is going to hurt
• 5:39
  Main Street. It's essentially going to
• 5:41
  devalue your purchasing power. And actually, I didn't even
• 5:45
  bring it up, but Dixie did respond very interesting last
• 5:48
  night, which on a, on a ratio number on a, on a like a
• 5:53
  relative perspective, it wasn't, isn't that big of a move.
• 5:55
  But I'll, I'll cover that in a little bit.
• 5:58
  Anyways, here's Lynn Alden continuing as the inevitable
• 6:01
  debate breaks out regarding whether the Fed's current shift
• 6:03
  towards a balance sheet expansion is QE or not.
• 6:07
  Here's my answer again, I've been telling you guys on the
• 6:10
  show, look, QT officially ended now, does that mean we're going
• 6:14
  to go straight into quantitative easing?
• 6:16
  Most likely not Most likely. What's going to happen?
• 6:19
  QT ended Yeah, so I said you said QE.
• 6:22
  No, I said QT ended, but does that mean we're going straight
• 6:25
  into QE? Not necessarily.
• 6:27
  They're going to rebrand this in whatever way possible.
• 6:30
  It's basically QE without calling it QE.
• 6:33
  Here's Lynn Alden's take here. It's money printing whether it's
• 6:36
  QE or not. It's it's semantics.
• 6:38
  Fed won't call it QE since it's not duration and it's not for
• 6:42
  economic stimulus. It all is the same thing.
• 6:45
  It's the expansion of the money supply.
• 6:47
  It's more liquidity into the system.
• 6:49
  Now going further, our boy Larry Leopard goes 40 billion of
• 6:53
  reserves management immediately, not QEQE.
• 6:58
  The big print begins. So the money printing super
• 7:01
  cycle has just officially started.
• 7:03
  Or rather maybe this is the point in the in the race where
• 7:07
  like the, you know, the gun shoots like this is where we
• 7:10
  are. It's just heating up.
• 7:11
  It is just starting again, going a little more, you know, kind of
• 7:15
  breaking this down, hopefully expand on this a little bit.
• 7:18
  This is where it gets very interesting and Lynn Alden
• 7:21
  explains it one more time in the presser.
• 7:23
  In the press release, Powell suggests a 20 to $25 billion
• 7:28
  monthly balance sheet expansion is the new baseline for ample
• 7:31
  reserves. And then they do a $40 billion
• 7:35
  currently to deal with liquidity issues and get ahead of April
• 7:38
  tax day liquidity drain. So they said 20 to 25 billion is
• 7:43
  it's kind of what we need. And then they doubled that,
• 7:47
  which I think is telling you a lot of what is going on here.
• 7:51
  They're they're basically trying to not spook the markets right
• 7:54
  now. They're essentially saying,
• 7:56
  yeah, we need more liquidity. This will be, you know, this is
• 7:59
  what we need to do. But oh, guess what?
• 8:01
  We're going to double that, which really should be sending
• 8:04
  some signals to everyone. It's the problem is probably a
• 8:07
  lot worse than what they're telling us.
• 8:09
  But you know, what do I know? I'm I'm just a YouTube.
• 8:11
  Anyways, James Lavish goes on. Here we go again. the Fed just
• 8:15
  announced that it will buy $40 billion of treasury bills in the
• 8:18
  next 30 days. If you are wondering where this
• 8:20
  puts us in the printing cycle, it is right here and you can
• 8:24
  see. What is this?
• 8:25
  2000, 2020 this little dip. As you can see, we have dip down
• 8:30
  here in 2025. This little dip was the 2020
• 8:34
  stimulus package. So it looks like if history does
• 8:39
  repeat, we're going to most likely see something very
• 8:42
  similar that the Fed asset sheet, The balance sheet's going
• 8:45
  to expand. It's going to start going up
• 8:47
  more liquidity in the system, which is obviously usually very
• 8:52
  bullish for assets. You need to be holding hard
• 8:54
  assets at this moment. And of course, we think Bitcoin
• 8:58
  is the best. And shouts out to our boy, Simon
• 9:01
  Dixon. You guys know, I've been a huge
• 9:02
  fan of Simon Dixon recently. I think he's really on point on
• 9:06
  what the true battle is at hand. And he goes quantitative easing
• 9:10
  is back. Federal Reserve cuts interest
• 9:12
  rates by 25 bips Federal Reserve to buy $40 billion worth of
• 9:15
  Treasury bills over the next 30 days.
• 9:17
  Somebody has to buy them. And Treasuries are being dumped
• 9:20
  on Americans to pump stocks again or assets again.
• 9:24
  This is what's going on, guys. It's a very simple process.
• 9:27
  It's not that complicated. I do have a really good meme
• 9:30
  here. I'm not going to play it because
• 9:33
  it to meme, but here I'll start it here and maybe you guys can
• 9:38
  watch it in the background. But essentially guys, the money
• 9:42
  printer is back on it's official.
• 9:45
  They finally admitted what we've all been saying what I've been
• 9:49
  saying on the show, what they've been telegraphing.
• 9:51
  They are actually going to oh wait, I pulled it off Sorry, I
• 9:55
  said I was going to leave it on here we go.
• 9:57
  Let me let me pull it back. I'll, I'll drop this in the chat
• 9:59
  for you guys cuz Nico was laughing at me earlier.
• 10:03
  He's like, what are you doing? I'm like, I'm, I'm learning
• 10:05
  through memes, bro. Like, come on.
• 10:06
  What do? What do you, what do you mean
• 10:07
  what am I doing? And we're just sitting here
• 10:09
  laughing at it because it's hilarious.
• 10:11
  It's really good. So yeah, the big news here, the
• 10:15
  money printer is on. They have just admitted this.
• 10:18
  They had all but admitted it and now it's official, official.
• 10:23
  Maybe it's not necessarily happening, you know, effective
• 10:26
  immediately. But in the next couple of days
• 10:28
  they're going to start expanding the money supply.
• 10:30
  And I think like the big kind of story here is the last three
• 10:34
  years they've been tightening, you know, they've been reducing
• 10:37
  their balance sheet. Now they finally admitted
• 10:40
  because we've been seeing and I've been covering this for you
• 10:42
  guys on the show, there's been a lot of shenanigans going on in
• 10:45
  the markets, whether it's in Japan, whether it's in the US,
• 10:49
  you've seen Trump kind of fight Jay Powell.
• 10:51
  There's been this whole war around interest rates,
• 10:54
  liquidity, balance sheet, repo markets, regional banks
• 10:58
  basically having no liquidity. It all has finally come to a
• 11:01
  head and they finally came the money printers coming back on.
• 11:05
  So I mean, I don't want to say super cycle, Nico, but the fact
• 11:08
  that you were being bearish the other day.
• 11:11
  I, I, I think I'm going to take a pre early victory lap here
• 11:15
  because they all but admitted not only the institutions coming
• 11:19
  into Bitcoin, but the money printers coming back on.
• 11:22
  I don't think I don't think we're going down, boys and
• 11:24
  girls. I look, it's simply simply
• 11:27
  Optihopium here today, but I just don't see it in the cards.
• 11:31
  This is to me 2026 is gonna be bullish bullish AF.
• 11:36
  Look, the way I see it is just like, you know, it's pretty
• 11:41
  simple, right? Bitcoin has been in a bear
• 11:44
  market in 2020, 2025, undeniable.
• 11:50
  You know, we expected a, a, a parabola year.
• 11:54
  Bitcoin's clearly not following its previous cycles.
• 11:58
  Clearly Bitcoin right now is in completely uncharted territory.
• 12:04
  And I think that's what you know, that's what people you
• 12:08
  know, that's what I'm seeing. And I, I don't think I, I come
• 12:13
  from the school of thought that until this cycle breaks, I just
• 12:19
  don't see, you know, until the cycle theory breaks, I'm
• 12:23
  believing in the cycle theory. And so far the cycle theory has
• 12:27
  been 100% on point. Like we peaked in October.
• 12:32
  We've been in a downtrend ever since the theory of of a lot of
• 12:37
  people, very smart people, including Michael Saylor, Lynn
• 12:41
  Alden, the ETF guys, Optimus Fields, Walker, Walker America,
• 12:49
  is that you know, they're all saying this time is different
• 12:52
  and and I'll be happy. I told I promised you guys when
• 12:57
  Walker was on the show, I said, you know, I'll be happy to take
• 13:00
  some pie on the face. Like you guys could literally
• 13:03
  like, you know, like the Niccolo, it's the, like the, the
• 13:07
  Nickelodeon meme, Like I'll, I'll, you know, the, the, the
• 13:10
  whipped cream pie or whatever. But until that happens, until I
• 13:16
  see that Bitcoin breaks $117,000 and it breaks it like
• 13:25
  consistently in the year 2026, dude, I think we're in a bear
• 13:30
  market. Like I I still think we're in a
• 13:32
  bear market bro. Dude, let's get him out.
• 13:34
  Let's. Dude, let's, let's.
• 13:35
  Get him off the. Show we went, we went, we went
• 13:39
  down, we went down right from the top of 126,000.
• 13:44
  We went down, we hit 80 K we're having a bounce back, right?
• 13:49
  We hit 94, we got rejected. We're back that we're back to
• 13:52
  90K. Let's see if it's a continuation
• 13:56
  of the trend. Now here's the thing.
• 13:59
  If it's a continuation of the trend right, I would be very
• 14:02
  happy. I'd be very happy if, if Opti
• 14:05
  was, if Opti was right and I was wrong, I'd be the first, I'd be
• 14:12
  the first to, to it, it. I'd be the first to, to, to, to
• 14:19
  say anything. I'd be the first to admit defeat
• 14:22
  and to, you know, take the walk of shame and say, listen, guy,
• 14:27
  it's not even the walk of shame, bro.
• 14:29
  I'm just being realistic. What's wrong with being
• 14:31
  realistic, Opti? What's wrong with being
• 14:34
  realistic? You're giving me a hard.
• 14:35
  Time I live in fantasy bulls hard land.
• 14:37
  Sorry dude, reality doesn't affect me anymore.
• 14:40
  Yeah. Then what?
• 14:43
  Then when? Bro the last two bear markets
• 14:48
  have been brutal. For you, Yeah, It truly was.
• 14:51
  It truly was, I'm not going to lie.
• 14:54
  So I'm just seeing, I'm just seeing what the situation is.
• 15:00
  And the situation is that we peaked at 126 K in October and
• 15:11
  we've gone in a downtrend sense. Are the four year cycles going
• 15:15
  to break? Technically, the four year
• 15:18
  cycle, the meme 3 green one red is already broken because 2025
• 15:23
  is a down year. Technically.
• 15:24
  You can make an argument that 2025 was a bear market year for
• 15:28
  Bitcoin, right? You could say that even though
• 15:31
  we made an all time high, but you can make an argument that
• 15:33
  2025 was a bear market year. So all I'm saying is I'm seeing
• 15:38
  and I'm watching, but I do remember the pain because that's
• 15:42
  what it was. The pain.
• 15:43
  The depths of hell and the trenches, the trenches, the
• 15:48
  trenches that me and Opti got out of the Bitcoin hood like we
• 15:54
  like to call this is. Bitcoin price derangement
• 15:56
  Syndrome. And I and I remember, I
• 16:00
  remember, I remember it like clear as yesterday.
• 16:03
  Do you remember the 2018 bear market?
• 16:06
  Yeah, that sucked. Well, that that was when I
• 16:08
  earned my stripes. The 2022 one was brutal.
• 16:11
  That 20. 18 was brutal. 2022 was brutal.
• 16:17
  Like so I'm I'm I'm waiting and I'm seeing.
• 16:21
  But right now, as it stands right now, right now, at this
• 16:25
  moment, the four year cycle theory has not broken, has not
• 16:30
  broken. So Opti's making the cases
• 16:35
  broken, Sailors making the cases broken, Lynn's making the cases
• 16:38
  broken Walkers. Dude, I'm in good company.
• 16:41
  I'm in good company. Right, so you guys are all
• 16:43
  making the cases broken. I'm seeing what I'm seeing and I
• 16:47
  hope you guys are right and I hope I'm wrong.
• 16:50
  Right, 'cause if not the 200 week moving average, it's 60K
• 16:55
  baby. Well hey, that's better than
• 16:57
  what you said 30K so I'll take. It you never know.
• 17:01
  You never know. But anyways, I do want to pass
• 17:05
  it on to our guest. We got Riley in the house.
• 17:07
  Riley, what are your thoughts on this, bro?
• 17:09
  What are your, what are your clients talking to you about?
• 17:12
  Because I'm sure you're getting this question a lot.
• 17:16
  Yeah, no, definitely. Are I as having a risk
• 17:21
  management background, I always, you know, lean a little bit more
• 17:24
  on the realistic side, try not to, you know, try to control my
• 17:28
  optimism a little bit, especially depending on who I'm
• 17:31
  talking to, right? But I, I think for us, I, I know
• 17:36
  a handful of clients that are definitely kind of on the side
• 17:39
  waiting for some stability and kind of see what's going on.
• 17:45
  Of course, you know, during those times as an opportunity to
• 17:49
  talk about, well, you can certainly start to maybe, you
• 17:52
  know, DCA because a lot of our folks are just smash buying
• 17:55
  when, when they first come come through our door.
• 17:59
  And of course, you know, want to continue buying after that.
• 18:03
  But it's like, you know, depending on what price action
• 18:05
  is doing, do you continue to smash by or do we set up some
• 18:08
  sort of DCA strategy that that we determined?
• 18:12
  So, yeah, to, to be honest and to give you the inside scoop,
• 18:16
  you know, definitely some folks on the sidelines, but a lot of
• 18:20
  our folks too are just price insensitive.
• 18:23
  And they're just, you know, smashed by and, and, and they're
• 18:26
  taking any, any dip that we get. Awesome.
• 18:30
  I mean, but, but let me ask you something else though, right?
• 18:34
  Like I'm sure they're asking you the question that everyone's
• 18:37
  wondering right now and Opti are Opti and I are Ying and Yang
• 18:41
  right now, right? Bull, bull versus bear.
• 18:43
  We got a, we got a bear and we got a bull on the other, on the
• 18:46
  other sides of the table. What, what are you telling your
• 18:50
  clients when they're asking you do come from a risk management
• 18:53
  background? Like what are you telling your
• 18:54
  clients you know at the current moment?
• 18:58
  Yeah. So I guess I would, I, I would
• 19:01
  lean more on the, on the bull side of things currently though,
• 19:06
  just because for, for me, the, the way I, I see it, you know,
• 19:11
  as, as you guys were, you know, we're working through all that
• 19:14
  news and everything as, as you teed me off there, just just
• 19:19
  with the amount of institutions that are coming in, I certainly
• 19:24
  think a lot of them as well. And of course, so these are, you
• 19:27
  know, Fiat minded folks. So I, I, I say this with a grain
• 19:30
  of salt that, you know, maybe they learned their lesson from
• 19:34
  the last cycle because towards the, what ended up being the
• 19:38
  top, we were certainly starting to see a lot of companies come
• 19:41
  in and then they just immediately got quickly burned.
• 19:44
  And so I'm sure they were soured by that.
• 19:47
  But now with the ETFs now seeing banks like JP Morgan, Bank of
• 19:53
  America, so on and so forth, or, or even smaller regional banks
• 19:58
  getting in, they're, they're not doing all of this work and
• 20:03
  rolling out these new products and services for there to be no
• 20:07
  demand once they're officially operating.
• 20:11
  And so you know, we're, we're very close to seeing a lot of
• 20:15
  things roll out Q1 of next year or you know, I also know of
• 20:20
  banks that are currently working on things that you know,
• 20:23
  they're, they're kind of on a 12 month deadline currently.
• 20:27
  Because like they want to get into this space as quick as
• 20:30
  possible. So again, though I, I think
• 20:35
  maybe that's why we have seen the, the price action that, that
• 20:38
  we have where, you know, people who certainly believe in the
• 20:41
  four year cycle, you know, we're, we're kind of selling at,
• 20:45
  at the top to then buy back lower.
• 20:48
  So I certainly think like that has, has been in play and has
• 20:53
  impacted the, the price. Certainly, you know, kind of
• 20:57
  the, what was it November 10th thrift news with the, with the
• 21:03
  100% tariffs to, to China, which then just, you know, happened
• 21:07
  midday on a Friday before a long weekend.
• 21:11
  I don't think that's a a coincidence.
• 21:13
  So, you know, just things like that, that that happened from
• 21:16
  time to time where, you know, trying to keep the price as low
• 21:20
  as possible to allow these institutions to, to catch up.
• 21:25
  And then, you know, once everyone is is up and running,
• 21:28
  then it's, it's off to the races.
• 21:30
  So that's why I do learn more on the bull side as we go into
• 21:34
  2026. OK, so we got 2 bulls in the
• 21:37
  house and we got 1 bear. We got 2 bulls in the house and
• 21:42
  1 bear. Riley's saying what Opti's
• 21:44
  saying this time. Is different.
• 21:46
  Well, well, it is. It is interesting because Riley
• 21:48
  basically said what I, what I have been saying for the last
• 21:52
  couple of weeks, it's like, it just makes no sense to me when
• 21:55
  you're seeing all of this institutional demand.
• 21:57
  They're, they're unleashing all of these products right now.
• 22:00
  I and, and we do have some evidence of like who is actually
• 22:04
  kind of trying to suppress the price and they're not doing a
• 22:06
  very good job of this. It just makes no sense to me
• 22:09
  that they're going to launch all these products right now and
• 22:13
  then it's not going to do anything next year.
• 22:15
  Like even to your point, Nico, about the cycle theory, you
• 22:18
  know, still quote UN quote being intact, like it's already
• 22:21
  officially broken. And if we're negative on the
• 22:23
  year like that, that's it's done.
• 22:25
  It should be 3 green, one red and we got 2 green, one red.
• 22:29
  So like all of the models are broken.
• 22:31
  Everything's been off this cycle.
• 22:33
  So I, I just, I don't see with all these new products, all this
• 22:37
  new demand kind of coming in or rather being set up, how we're
• 22:41
  not going to see bullishness in 2026.
• 22:43
  That's like my underlying thesis, basically.
• 22:46
  Yeah, I mean, but again, it goes to like the this time is
• 22:50
  different. Like the like, dude, they're
• 22:53
  they they made a whole meme of this.
• 22:55
  Yeah, but it is different. Exactly.
• 22:57
  In every single. Cycle.
• 22:59
  That was the meme I but it finally happened.
• 23:02
  I remember I remember in 2017 right and then the 2018 bear
• 23:07
  market hit. I remember vividly like one of
• 23:11
  the coping mechanisms that everyone had was like, but Nico,
• 23:16
  Nico, so the institutions are coming.
• 23:18
  The institutions are coming 20/21.
• 23:21
  It was like the Bitcoin super cycle.
• 23:23
  This thing's going to 150K or 100 or 100K minimum.
• 23:27
  It didn't go to 100K, went to 69 K This time.
• 23:33
  People were expecting this specific cycle, 250K300K, it hit
• 23:37
  126 K, right, so. All right, I just rebranded it.
• 23:43
  It's Bitcoin Meme Derangement Syndrome that Nico is suffering.
• 23:47
  From I'm just, I'm just, I'm just pointing it out.
• 23:49
  I'm just pointing it out, dude. I hope I'm wrong.
• 23:52
  I hope the cycles break. I hope that this time truly it
• 23:57
  did. I hope the cycles do break and I
• 23:59
  hope that this time truly is different.
• 24:02
  And I think that we're all looking for a catalyst because
• 24:06
  there needs to be a catalyst. Because at the end of the day, I
• 24:09
  think what a lot of like the, the, the forces that the Bitcoin
• 24:14
  bulls are fighting against right now is that people are believing
• 24:18
  in the four year cycle theory, right?
• 24:21
  So a lot of whales are dumping because they think, oh, the four
• 24:26
  year cycle's the thing, right? So you have a lot of OG whales
• 24:29
  that are dumping hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin because
• 24:33
  they think they're going to be able to buy it cheaper early
• 24:36
  next year. So it kind of becomes this self
• 24:38
  fulfilling prophecy. Now, I think the big question on
• 24:41
  everybody's minds is, OK, but maybe this time it is different
• 24:46
  because you have a pro Bitcoin administration, because you have
• 24:50
  institutional adoption of Bitcoin, because you have the
• 24:53
  success of the ETF, because the the Bitcoin BlackRock ETF is the
• 24:58
  most successful ETF launch in in history.
• 25:02
  It is also the most profitable ETF for BlackRock.
• 25:06
  You have Wells Fargo, you have Wells Fargo, you have Bank of
• 25:09
  America, all basically saying they're getting into the Bitcoin
• 25:13
  game. So I understand the argument for
• 25:15
  this time is different. I totally get it.
• 25:18
  I understand it, but I want to see it come to fruition.
• 25:22
  I do want to see it play out. I don't want to just wait on the
• 25:26
  sidelines and just say, OK, you know, and then the, the, the,
• 25:30
  you know, then we have a correction next year, bro.
• 25:32
  Then we're at 75 K next year. We're at 60K next year.
• 25:35
  We're at 75 K this year. Like what are we talking about?
• 25:39
  OK, but what if we go back there in 2026?
• 25:42
  Like I think that's really the, the number one question.
• 25:45
  The year's about to be over. We got less than a, we got less
• 25:48
  than a month. We're heading into 2026 and I
• 25:51
  think the question on everybody's minds is, is 2026
• 25:55
  going to finally break the four year cycle?
• 25:58
  Are we heading into all time highs in 2026?
• 26:01
  Opti. Fuck if I know, but but my vibe
• 26:05
  is telling you I am all right. Everyone's vibe coding.
• 26:09
  I am vibe trading here. Well, I don't even trade.
• 26:12
  I'm vibe charting. Yes, I will say yes, but I've
• 26:16
  been wrong all year, so like whatever.
• 26:19
  What do I know? I'm going to pass it on to Riley
• 26:21
  who again has a risk management background.
• 26:24
  Riley 2026. Are we making an all time high
• 26:28
  or what? I believe so kind of writing
• 26:31
  some, some notes down here as, as we go along and I, I think
• 26:36
  there's going to be a couple factors.
• 26:37
  So like right now, they're, they're laying the, these
• 26:40
  institutions are laying the foundations right where we had
• 26:43
  the ETS last year. Now we have the banks being able
• 26:48
  to, to play in this game and they're all already rolling out
• 26:52
  products with PNC officially, you know, 2 days ago, we got a
• 26:56
  couple more that will be live before the end of the year, Q1.
• 27:01
  And then like I said, you know, there are certainly some banks
• 27:03
  that, you know, have, have about a 1212 month road map before
• 27:07
  they have products that, that are officially live.
• 27:10
  So we have that. And then also, you know, I, I
• 27:13
  made a note about, you know, we're, we're going to have a new
• 27:17
  Fed chair, which, which is certainly going to make some
• 27:22
  things interesting. And, and also too, I think 1
• 27:25
  interesting aspect of this as well as, as not only not only be
• 27:30
  going to the year 2026, but that's just one year closer to
• 27:34
  the end of Trump's term here. And of course he's going to want
• 27:38
  to set up the Republican Party, you know, for, for success and,
• 27:42
  and, you know, next election. And again, these are, you know,
• 27:47
  main mainstream legacy media sources.
• 27:49
  So, so who knows. But last, I, last I did see that
• 27:53
  his, his approval rating is, is certainly taking a hit.
• 27:57
  And this is a money guy, right? And, you know, when you know
• 28:00
  that your base is also and you know, your base and Main Street
• 28:03
  overall is, is struggling. I, I certainly think he's going
• 28:07
  to want to end on a good note and make people remember his,
• 28:13
  his legacy of putting more money in, in their pocket.
• 28:15
  And so I, I certainly think there's that, you know, Fiat
• 28:21
  politician clown world aspect of, of all this as well.
• 28:24
  So let's talk about the, the, the midterms coming up, right?
• 28:29
  Right now, as it currently stands, the Repubs are gonna get
• 28:32
  a schmelacken if you know, and, and again, you could actually
• 28:38
  make an argument too, that a lot of this, a lot of this I, I was,
• 28:42
  I, I saw a post by Anthony Pompliano like you could blame a
• 28:48
  lot of this on the Fed. You could say that the Fed has
• 28:51
  not lowered rates fast enough. You could say that the Fed has
• 28:55
  been is politically motivated and they're trying to sabotage
• 28:58
  Trump's term. You can make arguments for that.
• 29:01
  And again, those arguments don't come from me.
• 29:03
  I was taught, I, I interviewed Senator Cynthia Lummis in the
• 29:05
  beginning of the year in DC and then spoken to Caitlin Long
• 29:09
  about this. And, you know, they've been
• 29:10
  making the case the, the, the basically the entire year that,
• 29:14
  you know, the Fed could be politically compromised, right?
• 29:18
  And I know that during the, during the election season,
• 29:22
  right, they, they weren't as hawkish as they are right now.
• 29:25
  Like, you know, they were a little bit, a little bit looser
• 29:28
  with the, the monetary policy, right?
• 29:30
  They're saying, oh, no, we'll, we'll print a little, there's no
• 29:33
  inflation coming. And then as soon as Trump comes
• 29:36
  in and Trump's a pro Bitcoin candidate, right, we know that
• 29:40
  the future of the Federal Reserve is central bank digital
• 29:42
  currencies. We know the Trump administration
• 29:44
  doesn't like central bank digital currencies.
• 29:46
  So is it too much of A stretch to say that the Fed has been
• 29:52
  essentially politically sabotaging the Trump
• 29:56
  administration to kind of wait him out so the Dems could get
• 30:01
  back in power in 2026 during the midterms?
• 30:04
  Is that too much of A stretch to say that?
• 30:06
  I, I don't, I don't think that's too much of A stretch to say
• 30:09
  that at all, right? After all the things I've seen
• 30:11
  this year, I don't think that's a stretch at all.
• 30:14
  And I think it's also a testament of how big Bitcoin has
• 30:18
  gotten that now it's getting into like the geopolitics
• 30:23
  discussion, like it's like you have multiple countries, you
• 30:27
  know, their involvement. I saw Michael Saylor's keynote
• 30:31
  from Bitcoin MENA and Abu Dhabi and he was making the case on
• 30:36
  stage. She's like, I talked to like.
• 30:38
  50. Sovereign wealth funds and
• 30:40
  they're all interested in buying Bitcoin.
• 30:42
  Like that is wild. Like we could have never have
• 30:45
  imagined this. Like we imagined it, but we
• 30:48
  could have never. One thing is imagining something
• 30:50
  and one thing is living through something.
• 30:52
  So, yeah, I think the big question on everybody's mind and
• 30:56
  I, I guess nobody really knows, right, is what's going to,
• 31:00
  what's Bitcoin going to do in 2026?
• 31:02
  Is the cycle going to break? If the cycle does break, that
• 31:06
  creates A catalyst. And the reason that creates a
• 31:09
  catalyst is because there's a whole lot of people, including
• 31:13
  myself, maybe not Opti, maybe not Riley, that are saying,
• 31:18
  look, come back, pack up your bags, come back in 2029 when it
• 31:22
  come back in 2029 when you guys are four years older, right?
• 31:25
  That that a lot of people are believing that.
• 31:27
  By the way, like if you look at all of the quote UN quote,
• 31:31
  again, a lot of these people are my friends.
• 31:32
  So I'm not going to name any names, but you look at any of
• 31:34
  the Bitcoin TA people or the crypto TA people on YouTube and
• 31:39
  X and all that there, a lot of them are saying, look, the cycle
• 31:44
  is over. The cycle is done.
• 31:46
  You know, it's like, look like we wanted something higher and
• 31:49
  never came to fruition, but that's it, right?
• 31:52
  So I think that's really the question, Is this time actually
• 31:56
  truly different? Did the institutions actually
• 31:59
  change the game? Are we actually not going to see
• 32:03
  a 60 to 70 to 80% drawdown in in Bitcoin's price?
• 32:08
  And are we going to see an all time high in 2026?
• 32:11
  And if we do see an all time high in 2026, that's going to
• 32:15
  catch so many people off guard. And that is the exact opposite
• 32:21
  of what the market is expecting. Because I think that the a big
• 32:25
  reason as to why Bitcoin had a negative price performance this
• 32:30
  year is that in the beginning of the year, including us 2 idiots,
• 32:35
  we were all expecting that Q4 was gonna be explosive the
• 32:40
  entire. Year, yeah, there's still time.
• 32:42
  300K by end of year. The entire year the all of
• 32:46
  Bitcoin, Twitter and YouTube and everyone was all expecting that.
• 32:59
  There we go. Sorry about that.
• 33:00
  I don't know why. Why?
• 33:01
  Why does that keep happening? No clue.
• 33:03
  But anyways, everyone was expecting that Bitcoin was going
• 33:06
  to have this explosive, explosive, explosive Q3Q4 of
• 33:13
  2025. Everyone was expecting that the
• 33:16
  markets do the exact opposite of what everyone expects Now what
• 33:21
  is the exact opposite of what everyone expects for next year
• 33:25
  other than you being delusionally bullish like opti
• 33:28
  right? Who's always bullish no matter
• 33:30
  what it's? Not delusional if you're right,
• 33:32
  right? Other than being delusionally
• 33:35
  bullish, right, what would catch the markets completely by
• 33:39
  surprise in 2026? Like even saying it out loud
• 33:45
  sounds weird. Imagine seeing 200K Bitcoin in
• 33:50
  2026. It would catch everyone by
• 33:53
  surprise. The four year cycle is done.
• 33:55
  All of the metrics that people have developed over the years to
• 34:00
  show where Bitcoin peaks, all of those would all be gone.
• 34:04
  They they wouldn't be they they wouldn't be useful anymore.
• 34:07
  We would be heading into uncharted territory.
• 34:10
  And I think that is a huge catalyst.
• 34:13
  But until I see it actually happening, I I still think that
• 34:19
  the four year cycle is a thing. So we'll see.
• 34:21
  We'll wait and see. We'll wait and see.
• 34:23
  Anyways, guys, it's going to be a great show.
• 34:25
  We're going to be talking about all things Bitcoin.
• 34:27
  Well, during the culture segment, during the number
• 34:30
  number segment, I have a clip of Adam Back, who I recently
• 34:34
  interviewed in Lugano, dropped that interview.
• 34:36
  Go check out Simply Bitcoin. Kind of a green with me.
• 34:39
  And Adam back is a green is agreeing with Optimus Fields.
• 34:43
  He's talking or I I think the the person who posted this hyper
• 34:47
  adoption phase of Bitcoin. And then you have a lot of these
• 34:53
  institutions that are cutting down their price predictions.
• 34:56
  You have starter, you have standard charter slashes their
• 34:59
  2025 Bitcoin forecast to 100,000 right.
• 35:03
  So everyone's getting bearish a little bit here.
• 35:06
  So anyways, guys, it's gonna be a great show.
• 35:08
  We're gonna be right back in just a bit.
• 35:09
  But before we do that, I do want to give a very special shout out
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  We have tons to cover. Smash the like button.
• 36:20
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  off anything on the store. At the time of recording, the
• 38:08
  Bitcoin price is $90,430. Block High 927,453 Market cap
• 38:16
  1.81 Trillion Bitcoin versus Gold Market cap 5.94% Decline
• 38:23
  from all time high -28.4% Did we get kicked off again?
• 38:29
  Oh no. Yeah, we're back.
• 38:31
  But yes, I want to play you guys this clip shout out to our boy
• 38:35
  Luke Mikic, one of the best Bitcoin Youtubers in the game
• 38:39
  and he's he was posting a clip of Adam back Adam back is
• 38:43
  feeling as bullish as Opti. So let's.
• 38:47
  Check, I'm in good company. Let's check out this clip of of
• 38:53
  Adam talking about cycle. Morgan, for example, is calling
• 38:58
  for $170,000 in the next 6 to 12 months.
• 39:03
  Tom Lee from Stratford was calling for $200,000.
• 39:05
  Still more time frame and there's a lot of institutional
• 39:08
  buying, which I think is a it's very early stages.
• 39:12
  So far I. Mean some of those folks were
• 39:14
  calling for those kinds of price targets for the end of this year
• 39:16
  and we haven't quite gotten there.
• 39:18
  But I mean broadly, would you agree with with those kinds of
• 39:22
  of numbers that you see in here? Well, I think it's pretty
• 39:28
  difficult to, you know, predict timing, but I think people have
• 39:30
  short memories too, right? Recall the last cycle we had a
• 39:34
  69,000 top around this time, you know, about 40% through the
• 39:39
  cycle and people thought that was the top, but it put in a
• 39:42
  higher top much later in the cycle, right?
• 39:44
  So I think the, you know, the timing with the cycle is getting
• 39:50
  focus. So if people zoom out and
• 39:54
  consider that the timing is less accurate and there are different
• 39:59
  buyers known that the ETF buyers are quite sticky.
• 40:01
  There's a long term investors, the Swiss National Bank by micro
• 40:06
  strategy. So the epidemic suffer, wealth
• 40:09
  funds buying Bitcoin, some of the pension funds buying Bitcoin
• 40:12
  and a number of banks you know, and the investment companies
• 40:15
  like Fidelity, Colon 1 to 5% allocation, Bank of America 2 to
• 40:20
  4. And Black Rock one to three were
• 40:24
  the first ones putting out a model price target as a model
• 40:28
  portfolio allocation. So I think those are, you know,
• 40:31
  those are, they're very interesting.
• 40:33
  They build comfort and support within the investor community.
• 40:36
  But those things take time to take effect, right, Because you
• 40:39
  know, the banks have to go through trainings programs, get
• 40:42
  their sales people information. So I think that that continues
• 40:46
  to come through. So I mean, I don't know Opti,
• 40:52
  what are you thinking bro? I like in in that and I'm I'm
• 40:55
  going to self deprecate a little bit here, but it's fine.
• 40:57
  In that clip, I was definitely the lady with the glasses.
• 41:01
  Yeah, no, you're you're literally what idle threats see.
• 41:03
  Like look at the screen. It's Opti, Nikko, then Adam back
• 41:07
  the bell Curve personified. Oh, that's fantastic.
• 41:15
  Look, I, I don't, I'm not even really basing this off, you know
• 41:19
  what all the other kind of Bitcoin, you know, TA guys are
• 41:23
  saying. It's really what Riley and I
• 41:25
  were saying in the beginning of the show.
• 41:27
  It just makes no sense to me. Like even saying the cycle is
• 41:32
  still in play, it doesn't make sense.
• 41:35
  Like this year has been red. The cycle's already broken.
• 41:39
  Yes, maybe it topped when it was supposed to top, but the cycle,
• 41:43
  it's 3 green, one red. Three years of bullishness, one
• 41:46
  year of a bear market, and then it starts going back up again.
• 41:50
  That's not what happened this year.
• 41:51
  It's either whether it's 2 green, one red and then one
• 41:56
  green again, cycle's over. Whether it's 2 green, 2 red, the
• 42:01
  cycle is over. So like, yes, maybe it did top
• 42:03
  when everyone thought it was going to top.
• 42:06
  But going further, kind of what Adam Back was saying at the very
• 42:10
  end is, is also mainly kind of the foundation to to my, my
• 42:16
  bullishness here is essentially all of the banks.
• 42:21
  And I don't know if you guys saw this morning, but Bank of
• 42:24
  America just basically dropped a sailor copycat as well.
• 42:27
  They're doing Bitcoin back credit now too.
• 42:30
  Every huge institution in the world is getting into Bitcoin in
• 42:34
  some way. And you think these people are
• 42:36
  coming into Bitcoin and they're not going to show this to every
• 42:40
  single person. You don't think a tsunami of
• 42:42
  capitals coming, especially when I just told you like the money
• 42:45
  printers also turning on everyone's making Bitcoin
• 42:49
  products. Every huge asset manager in the
• 42:51
  world either has an ETF or they're shilling ETFs.
• 42:55
  Like it just makes no sense to me that the year that the
• 42:58
  institutions get in that the following year, it's not going
• 43:01
  to RIP. It makes perfect sense to me
• 43:03
  that the year that the institutions are allowed to get
• 43:05
  into Bitcoin that the price kind of doesn't do what it's supposed
• 43:08
  to do because they want to get they want to fill their bags
• 43:12
  like it. It's just like this is this is
• 43:14
  42 IQ Bitcoin first principle speaking here.
• 43:18
  This is not like, oh, everyone's predicted this.
• 43:20
  This is why I think it's going up to X price.
• 43:24
  I just think like everything is completely off the table.
• 43:27
  Nico is right when he says we are in uncharted territory right
• 43:31
  now. I think that's completely on
• 43:33
  point. Did you just say I'm right about
• 43:35
  something? About the meme.
• 43:37
  About the meme, Yeah, you're wrong about the cycles, but
• 43:41
  you're right about the meme. We are in uncharted territory
• 43:44
  right now. That's very clear.
• 43:45
  Again, I've been making the case all year, or rather, the last
• 43:48
  couple of weeks when you went fully bearish on me, I've been
• 43:51
  making the case. Look, we had all time high
• 43:54
  before the halving. We had a 2025 red year, which
• 43:58
  was supposed to be a bullish parabolic banana zone year.
• 44:03
  We have all the institutions literally flipping on a dime.
• 44:07
  Their narrative around Bitcoin. Everyone's trying to position
• 44:10
  themselves to get into Bitcoin. I think all the models are
• 44:13
  indeed broken. Like every we, we, we really
• 44:16
  don't know what's going on. But you know, maybe I just, I
• 44:19
  just choose to be bullish. I refuse to be buried.
• 44:23
  In the sight of all of this stuff, that's just probably
• 44:26
  where where I'm at. So, you know, you want to ask me
• 44:29
  where my price prediction comes from?
• 44:30
  It's just gut level, Oracle level.
• 44:34
  I, you know, I am the source at this point, Nico.
• 44:36
  I say it's going to happen. If I'm wrong, I will not
• 44:39
  apologize for it. It's going up dude.
• 44:42
  It's just going up. That's just that's all there is
• 44:44
  to it. Opti Opti is, is vibing.
• 44:48
  Opti is feeling the vibes. Riley, what are your vibes right
• 44:52
  now, bro? You have, you know, I mean Adam
• 44:55
  back basically saying that, you know, he, he thinks that there's
• 45:00
  going to be like institutional, you know, interest coming in.
• 45:06
  He he's laying out the map, the landscape.
• 45:11
  And what are your thoughts on that man?
• 45:13
  What are your thoughts on Adam Back's comments?
• 45:16
  Yeah. Well, like he was saying towards
• 45:19
  the end there, once the foundation is set and the sales,
• 45:23
  you know, departments have have all their materials to, to get
• 45:27
  out there and and start pitching this to their clients.
• 45:31
  You know, that's, that's when we're going to, when we're going
• 45:34
  to start seeing things start to, you know, tick up.
• 45:36
  Because we also have to remember these institutions are, are not
• 45:41
  in the game of losing money. If, if they're doing all of this
• 45:44
  work of, you know, creating these new products and services,
• 45:48
  they're going to want to see an ROI on that as as quickly as
• 45:51
  possible. And I think too, and I, I caught
• 45:55
  that Bank of America news before hopping in here as well.
• 45:59
  And I and I found that to be very interesting, but I also
• 46:02
  feel like during this time where we have pulled back now and
• 46:07
  like, like we saw on the mark the Clark Moody dashboard there,
• 46:13
  we're off the all time high 28%. I feel like institutions and
• 46:18
  mainstream media have also been taking advantage of that with
• 46:22
  their various hit pieces, especially with Jeffrey
• 46:26
  Epstein's banker there had had JP Morgan and and Jamie Dimon
• 46:30
  where we saw we saw all these hit pieces more so directed at
• 46:36
  MicroStrategy, but it is obviously then a shot at
• 46:39
  underlying, you know, Bitcoin too.
• 46:42
  And then a week goes by and they roll their Bitcoin backed bond
• 46:46
  product out or now, you know, a week or two after that.
• 46:50
  Now we see this Bank of America. So I feel like they're also
• 46:53
  taking their shots and they're like, well, hey, you know, we,
• 46:58
  we don't want business going to Coinbase or some of these other
• 47:01
  big exchanges. We don't want, you know,
• 47:05
  business going to, you know, great Bitcoin only exchanges
• 47:08
  like Bitcoin. Well, we want, you know, our
• 47:11
  clients funds to stay with us and we will make it very easy
• 47:15
  for you to be able to buy Bitcoin and other related
• 47:19
  products. And so again, I think that's why
• 47:22
  I learn more. So on the bullish side, bullish
• 47:26
  side for for next year. Cause again, like I said in the
• 47:30
  beginning here, these people are not in the game of losing money.
• 47:34
  My, my, my man, my man, he gets it.
• 47:37
  Yeah, I mean, I agree they're not in the game of losing money,
• 47:40
  but I I would say I had a a really and you probably know who
• 47:44
  he is, Riley, but I had a very good conversation with someone
• 47:48
  and and comes from like the traditional markets and I'm
• 47:53
  like, dude, like what's going on with the price?
• 47:55
  Is it being manipulated? He's like, like, dude, like what
• 47:58
  are you talking about? Like this is how Wall Street
• 48:00
  operates. Like this is not manipulate like
• 48:02
  this is, this is like their standard operating procedure.
• 48:06
  So the reason I'm bringing that up, Riley, is because, like,
• 48:11
  could you imagine a world where BlackRock purposely makes
• 48:14
  Bitcoin boring as hell or Bitcoin, you know, dumps the, OR
• 48:20
  BlackRock dumps the price to accumulate more Bitcoin for
• 48:25
  their institutional clients. They're not losing money doing
• 48:27
  that, right? But they, they are, you know,
• 48:31
  playing the game how Wall Street has always played this game, I
• 48:34
  might add, right? Like this is standard operating
• 48:37
  procedure for them to, to take money from retail and basically
• 48:43
  get rich. Like that's how Wall Street has
• 48:45
  always played the game. So the the difference was that
• 48:49
  before the introduction of the ETF in the beginning of January
• 48:52
  2024, we were celebrating it like morons, like, you know, the
• 48:57
  Wall Street really wasn't in the game right there.
• 49:00
  There was like a couple futures like like you can get into
• 49:03
  Bitcoin futures, but there wasn't like an ETF like strategy
• 49:08
  was got involved like in 21. But like before Wall Street, you
• 49:13
  had pretty predictable retail cycles.
• 49:18
  It was kind of like the Wild West era.
• 49:20
  But boy was that a lot of fun, dude.
• 49:23
  Like, that was fun. Like I miss the 50% down in one
• 49:27
  day days, you know, like I miss those days.
• 49:30
  Those days I used to feel terrible and I.
• 49:33
  Feel like but Scott got scared of the 30% drawdown bro 30.
• 49:37
  Yeah, but 30% drawdown while like 30% drawdown over a period
• 49:42
  of like 8 months, bro, you know, like like it's like it.
• 49:46
  We used to be a 30 percent drawdown in 24 hours.
• 49:49
  Now it's a 30% drawdown in six months.
• 49:53
  It's totally different, right? So anyways, guys, it's going to
• 49:56
  be a great show. We still have an excellent
• 49:59
  article by Standard Charter. They slashed their forecast of
• 50:03
  Bitcoin to 100K. We're going to we're going to
• 50:06
  dive deep into what the reasoning is behind all of that,
• 50:10
  what their reasoning was behind all of that and further continue
• 50:13
  this discussion. What is going to be happening to
• 50:16
  Bitcoin in 20, 26? Will the change of the Fed
• 50:21
  chairman impact the the monetary policy?
• 50:24
  Will the monetary policy impact Bitcoin?
• 50:27
  Will the Republicans finally wake the F up and realize
• 50:31
  they're going to get show banked during the midterms?
• 50:34
  Let's see. Opti doesn't think so.
• 50:36
  And and has it come to a point where us Bitcoiners are just
• 50:42
  waiting and begging and saying, please, Sir, could you turn on
• 50:45
  the money printer? Like, has it really gotten to
• 50:48
  that point? Because Opti's shaking his head.
• 50:51
  Yes, it has. Opti, you effed up when you
• 50:54
  broke up with Christine Lagarde. You had you had access bro.
• 50:59
  We'd be at 500K if Opti was still in that relationship.
• 51:05
  Well, you know Jay Powell, I'm open to a relationship.
• 51:08
  I'll make sure the money printer comes.
• 51:11
  Back. All right, everybody, we're
• 51:12
  going to be wrecked right back in just a bit.
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• 54:32
  were talking about standard charter slashes 2025 Bitcoin
• 54:38
  forecast to 100K goes on to say with bitcoin's uptrend coming to
• 54:45
  a halt after a worsening fourth quarter performance, British
• 54:49
  multinational bank wealth and wealth management firm standard
• 54:52
  charter has significantly reduced its multi year price
• 54:55
  targets for the crypto top. The bank now forecasts that
• 55:00
  Bitcoin will reach 100,000 by the end of 2025, down from a
• 55:05
  previous target of 200,000. No shit.
• 55:10
  According to a Tuesday report, while it's a long term outlook.
• 55:14
  While it's long term outlook remains AT500K, the timeline has
• 55:19
  been pushed back from 2028 to 2030.
• 55:23
  Bitcoin is currently stuck in a tight range with no catalyst to
• 55:27
  put a shot. OK, I want to focus on the
• 55:29
  catalyst part. You know what the catalyst is
• 55:31
  going to be. The catalyst is going to be when
• 55:35
  the four year cycle theory either breaks or it gets upheld.
• 55:43
  If it breaks, I'm telling you that is a catalyst.
• 55:46
  You know what another catalyst will be if a major U.S. bank
• 55:50
  announces is buying Bitcoin? That's what Michael Saylor is.
• 55:54
  He's theorizing. I mean, he's having a lot of
• 55:57
  these conversations, right, That he's saying that, look, this is
• 56:00
  what's going to happen in 2026. It's the involvement of banks,
• 56:05
  and that's going to take Bitcoin to the next level, like big
• 56:07
  banks. And we saw that with the
• 56:09
  announcement of Bank of America. Now you know what another big
• 56:12
  catalyst will be. And I got to be honest, like
• 56:15
  first year of the Trump administration, I love what
• 56:19
  Trump's done for Bitcoin. It's been great.
• 56:24
  I just, I'm not a big fan of of look in Nashville.
• 56:29
  He kept all his promises. He talked to all of us.
• 56:32
  I was in the crowd. I remember, I remember, I
• 56:34
  remember like it was yesterday, I was our friends over at
• 56:38
  Bitcoin magazine that we were invited to be participating in
• 56:41
  the news desk that year. Simply Bitcoin was and I
• 56:44
  remember they're like, Nico, do you, do you, do you want to go
• 56:47
  on the news desk? And this was like right before
• 56:48
  Trump's speech. So there was like literally like
• 56:50
  millions of people on the stream watching the stream.
• 56:54
  And I remember I was like, no, no, no, I want to go watch.
• 56:59
  I want to go watch Trump speak, right?
• 57:02
  And I saw the speech and it was great.
• 57:04
  And I was like unimpressed for the majority of the speech until
• 57:09
  he mentioned strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
• 57:11
  OK. And I was like, I got hyped up.
• 57:14
  And then he said and Operation Choke Point 2.0.
• 57:17
  But one of his other promises that I think we all took for
• 57:20
  granted was that number was gonna go up because ultimately
• 57:25
  it's like, look, number went the F up during operation 2 point
• 57:31
  operation 2 point O, Operation 2 point O.
• 57:34
  So like, you know, I say this as a joke, but like half serious,
• 57:39
  like half jokingly, like bring Brac, like I like bring back
• 57:45
  Kamala, bring back Biden. Because at least the price of
• 57:48
  Bitcoin went up. It went from 16 K to like 100K
• 57:52
  right? During the Trump administration,
• 57:55
  when he was inaugurated, the price of Bitcoin was 109,000.
• 57:59
  I never forget today, almost 12 months later and I'm a year
• 58:06
  older, the price of Bitcoin's $90,540.
• 58:14
  I'm just like, not a fan, not a fan of that, right?
• 58:18
  And you could say, OK, but the regulations and his family's
• 58:21
  involved in the industry and you see Eric Trump and how bullish
• 58:24
  he is and you know, and all this stuff and, and all of that, all
• 58:28
  of that stuff is good. It's fantastic.
• 58:30
  I, I, I love the fact that our industry supposedly is not
• 58:34
  getting attacked. By the way, Speaking of that, we
• 58:37
  have one of the developers of Samurai Wallet scheduled to come
• 58:41
  on the show next week to talk about privacy, because that's
• 58:44
  another thing. I think it's Tuesday.
• 58:46
  Tuesday, so Tuesday of next week to talk about privacy because
• 58:49
  that's another thing that hasn't been talked about.
• 58:51
  Ladies and gentlemen, the whole privacy thing.
• 58:55
  Like basically they criminalized privacy, They criminalized
• 59:00
  Bitcoin and anonymity under the false pretense of North Korea
• 59:05
  and terrorism. And like, like the, the
• 59:07
  percentage of people that were using samurai and wasabi and any
• 59:12
  of these mixers for illicit purposes was a, a, a very tiny
• 59:17
  fraction of the overall user base, right.
• 59:20
  So they criminalized that which I think is against the
• 59:23
  constitution. Constitution is no unreasonable
• 59:25
  searches and seizures, right? 5th amendment that was thrown
• 59:30
  out the window. So again, like I, I went from,
• 59:36
  you know, we were having like thousands of people watching our
• 59:38
  live stream. Opti and I were like cloud 9.
• 59:41
  I think that was euphoria phase, bro, in January of 2024.
• 59:45
  That was the euphoria phase. My, my friend.
• 59:48
  We were, we were, we were no bro, you were super happy.
• 59:51
  You were super happy. I'm a one issue voter and anyone
• 59:56
  that pumps my bags, yes I'm happy.
• 59:58
  But dude, Biden pumped our bags. Right.
• 1:00:02
  Yeah, that's why, shouts out Biden.
• 1:00:03
  Biden pumped our bags anyways, Riley, as a fellow American bro,
• 1:00:10
  what are your thoughts on this dude 'cause we went from our
• 1:00:14
  industry operation choke .2 point O things are getting
• 1:00:17
  nasty. Things are getting dirty to a
• 1:00:20
  pro Bitcoin administration first pro Bitcoin president in the
• 1:00:24
  United States of America and his family owns like the 6th largest
• 1:00:29
  Bitcoin treasury company like you know, to like we've had a a
• 1:00:37
  basically a year of the Trump administration.
• 1:00:41
  Lots of bombs dropped, but Bitcoin hasn't pumped.
• 1:00:46
  What's your take on that, literally or figuratively?
• 1:00:50
  Both. Both.
• 1:00:53
  Both. Yeah, so I mean, real quick,
• 1:00:58
  yes, Biden in a in a way, maybe Bitcoin was was pumping during
• 1:01:03
  the last year of his his term there.
• 1:01:06
  But you know, talking about single issue voters he had you
• 1:01:11
  know, he had never said that he was going to free Ross, which
• 1:01:14
  then, you know, Trump did do. And now and and of course, you
• 1:01:19
  know, you you remind me of of talking about your next guest
• 1:01:22
  here within the next week. Now we need Trump to free the,
• 1:01:26
  the samurai devs as well and Tornado any, any devs where, you
• 1:01:31
  know, they're, they're working on privacy.
• 1:01:33
  That is, that is a a major issue if they're going to be
• 1:01:36
  incarcerated. And and those people need to
• 1:01:40
  either have not guilty verdicts or, you know, if we're already
• 1:01:43
  past that point, they they need to be pardoned.
• 1:01:46
  And so that's, that's kind of what I'm hoping on this, this
• 1:01:50
  administration, you know, get catches the wind of of that and,
• 1:01:56
  and helps those folks out because that's a, a very big
• 1:02:00
  issue where if, if code is no longer being treated like speech
• 1:02:06
  and, and that's going to go against one of our amendments,
• 1:02:09
  then that's a very slippery slope.
• 1:02:11
  And we have a major problem on our hand outside of, you know,
• 1:02:15
  maybe Bitcoin being a little lower than we would like.
• 1:02:19
  Yeah, absolutely. But again, like it, OK, I, I, I
• 1:02:22
  agree. I agree with those arguments.
• 1:02:23
  But you know, the Ross free Ross getting freed, huge victory,
• 1:02:30
  huge win for our movement. I think Trump needed to do that
• 1:02:35
  because he needed the votes, right?
• 1:02:37
  No politician just does things to do things.
• 1:02:39
  They do things because they needed the votes.
• 1:02:42
  I think Trump needed a coalition of libertarians of of, of people
• 1:02:47
  that were into crypto and Bitcoin.
• 1:02:50
  And he built that coalition like he had moderate, he has moderate
• 1:02:54
  Democrats in his cabinet like RFK Junior, Tulsi Gabbard,
• 1:02:58
  right? So he built this fantastic
• 1:03:01
  coalition and he did free Ross. He did keep that promise.
• 1:03:06
  He did and Operation Choke .2 point O.
• 1:03:08
  But no one's addressing and talking about the elephant in
• 1:03:12
  the room. The elephant in the room is
• 1:03:14
  privacy has officially been criminalized in the United
• 1:03:17
  States, right? And ultimately, you know, and
• 1:03:21
  again, it, it's it, it's, it's being done via soft power,
• 1:03:24
  right? So what they do is that they
• 1:03:27
  don't overtly criminalize it, but what they do is that they
• 1:03:30
  make it. There's a reason Satoshi is
• 1:03:35
  anonymous. There's a reason Satoshi's
• 1:03:37
  anonymous. If Satoshi were not anonymous,
• 1:03:40
  they he would be in jail by now. Like straight up, I would tell
• 1:03:43
  you that 100%. And what's really slippery about
• 1:03:48
  what's happening with Tornado Cash?
• 1:03:50
  So they use Tornado Cash as a precedent.
• 1:03:52
  As soon as Tornado Cash happened and the guy was charged and Coin
• 1:03:58
  Center sued and Coin Center saw that lost that lawsuit within a
• 1:04:02
  month, they arrested the samurai wallet guys.
• 1:04:06
  And the government is basically making the case that look as an
• 1:04:10
  open source developer you're responsible for for people using
• 1:04:15
  your code in a malicious manner. That's the case basically right?
• 1:04:19
  The TLDR is that's the case now they'll say, OK, but it's
• 1:04:23
  because they've profited from of it, from it and they shouldn't
• 1:04:27
  have profited from it and they're unlicensed money
• 1:04:29
  transmitting like the whole thing is scary.
• 1:04:33
  And and you know, one of the things that I love about Bitcoin
• 1:04:35
  well, and the way that you guys built the platform is that it's
• 1:04:40
  automatic self custody. And I think that this year
• 1:04:44
  people have forgotten one of the truest lessons of Bitcoin, which
• 1:04:49
  is listen, not your keys, not your cheese.
• 1:04:52
  Yes, the ETFs are here. Yes, you can buy exposure to
• 1:04:55
  Bitcoin via MicroStrategy, but it's not real Bitcoin unless
• 1:05:00
  that Bitcoin is in self custody. It's not real Bitcoin.
• 1:05:04
  It's not real Bitcoin, but you have something called a Bitcoin
• 1:05:08
  IOU and it's a trust me bro model, right?
• 1:05:12
  And human in history has shown that the trust Me Bro model is
• 1:05:17
  garbage, right? Anyways, that's a perfect way.
• 1:05:20
  It's a perfect segue to our next segment during the culture.
• 1:05:24
  We have Riley executive Bitcoin advisor of Bitcoin.
• 1:05:27
  Well, we're going to be talking about all things Bitcoin.
• 1:05:29
  Well, their OTC product, the infinite product, the portal,
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  we're going to be right back in just a little bit.
• 1:05:39
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  All right, everybody, we are back and we are joined with
• 1:07:41
  Riley from Bitcoin. Well guys, Bitcoin well is North
• 1:07:44
  America's only publicly traded non custodial OTC desk.
• 1:07:49
  Ladies and gentlemen, did we drop out again?
• 1:07:52
  Oh, we good. No, Riley did OK, we are back,
• 1:07:56
  all right. And we have Riley joining us on
• 1:07:59
  today's show. You can scan the QR code.
• 1:08:02
  You can check the link in the video description slash podcast
• 1:08:05
  description if you want to know more about Bitcoin well, or you
• 1:08:08
  can go straight to bitcoinwell.com/OTC to get
• 1:08:12
  signed up today. But I'm going to talk to Riley.
• 1:08:16
  Riley, first of all, thanks for joining us, brother.
• 1:08:19
  Could you walk us a little bit, walk us through the Bitcoin
• 1:08:23
  well, infinite experience? Yeah, absolutely.
• 1:08:26
  And again, been really enjoying this.
• 1:08:28
  So thanks again for the invitation today.
• 1:08:32
  So, yeah, basically how we always kind of kick things off
• 1:08:35
  with our newer folks that are, you know, kind of knocking on
• 1:08:38
  our door because they found us on, you know, Google, social
• 1:08:42
  media, whatever the case may be, or through, you know, our great
• 1:08:45
  sponsors like like yourselves. So basically I would have a
• 1:08:50
  one-on-one conversation with that individual or, you know,
• 1:08:54
  maybe their family and, and really have a chance to, you
• 1:08:58
  know, of course, not only introduce myself, highlight our
• 1:09:02
  service, but more importantly, get to know more about more
• 1:09:06
  about them. And, you know, kind of what they
• 1:09:09
  what questions they have, get an understanding of where they fall
• 1:09:14
  on the, the Bitcoin spectrum of, you know, are will this be the
• 1:09:17
  the very first Bitcoin that that they purchase more?
• 1:09:21
  You know, are they a seasoned Bitcoiner looking to buy more?
• 1:09:26
  Or if, if they're a believer in the four year cycles, maybe even
• 1:09:29
  sell. So we just have that time where
• 1:09:34
  I can have, you know, or you know, really they can have my
• 1:09:37
  undivided attention to, to be able to have those
• 1:09:41
  conversations. And really from there we can
• 1:09:43
  have additional conversations as needed.
• 1:09:47
  But at that point, when they're ready, we we on board them as as
• 1:09:51
  quickly as possible so they can get right into a stacking those
• 1:09:55
  stats or stacking those Bitcoin. That's fantastic, man.
• 1:09:58
  So again, it's a tailored white glove experience.
• 1:10:01
  Go to bitcoinwell.com/OTC again, schedule meeting, it will either
• 1:10:08
  be with Riley or Chantel and they'll walk you through, you
• 1:10:13
  know, your Bitcoin journey. Again, if you're a higher net
• 1:10:15
  worth individual looking to buy $50,000 worth or more and you
• 1:10:19
  want a tailored white glove service where they hold your
• 1:10:22
  hand from A-Z, buying the Bitcoin and then taking that
• 1:10:24
  Bitcoin into self custody, you know the, the, this is the team
• 1:10:29
  to go to. So all you gotta do is go to
• 1:10:32
  bitcoinwell.com/OTC schedule meeting with their team today.
• 1:10:37
  Again, this is designed for family offices, high net worth
• 1:10:40
  individuals, trusts or organizations.
• 1:10:44
  Also, of course, Bitcoin well is designed for retail as well,
• 1:10:48
  right? And what I love about the
• 1:10:51
  portal, first of all, it's extremely easy to use #1 and #2
• 1:10:57
  every time you buy Bitcoin on Bitcoin well, you earn Bitcoin
• 1:11:02
  well points. And you can use those points
• 1:11:05
  towards the Bitcoin Wishing Well contest, which I'm trying to
• 1:11:12
  access right now. Here we go, bomb, Bing bomb
• 1:11:15
  boom. And and you could use those
• 1:11:20
  points towards a bunch of different prizes.
• 1:11:24
  So you can get an orange cyber truck, a Bitcoin nutrition
• 1:11:27
  hoodie, a bid ax, a a a stamp seed plate, or you can play the
• 1:11:34
  Bitcoin wishing well contest, which again, you toss a coin
• 1:11:38
  into the wishing well. Aw, come on, guys, seems like
• 1:11:42
  let's refresh the page. Let's refresh the page.
• 1:11:50
  It seems like it's not working for us today.
• 1:11:51
  We're going to be doing a, a, a double giveaway tomorrow
• 1:11:56
  anyways. But yes, it's awesome.
• 1:11:59
  Bitcoin well's fantastic. They encourage self custody.
• 1:12:02
  It's built for self custody. And again, if you're a higher
• 1:12:05
  net worth individual, go to bitcoinwell.com/OTC and you've
• 1:12:11
  met Riley. He, you've experienced Riley.
• 1:12:13
  He, he's been with us throughout the entire show.
• 1:12:16
  You know who he is at this point.
• 1:12:18
  Look at that big smile on his face.
• 1:12:20
  So yeah, man. Oh, oh, ask Riley a question.
• 1:12:27
  Sorry guys, I'm I'm slouching my my bag's cooked from the gym
• 1:12:31
  today. Riley I, I, I've really, the
• 1:12:38
  chat is asking like about some interesting stories, but I, I
• 1:12:41
  don't really want to dox any, any of the holders or any of the
• 1:12:44
  people that are coming to you. That's just not fair really.
• 1:12:47
  So I would ask you kind of, you know, everyone has an elevator
• 1:12:52
  pitch here. So what is usually like, say,
• 1:12:55
  you know, I don't know, someone's trying to get their
• 1:12:58
  parents in and they're like, I don't really get this, like
• 1:13:02
  what, what would you usually tell people, you know, to kind
• 1:13:05
  of get them comfortable with what they're holding and, and
• 1:13:07
  the outlook of this Bitcoin thing?
• 1:13:10
  Yeah, absolutely. So, so my elevator pitch a lot
• 1:13:13
  of the times just because since we are non custodial, we
• 1:13:18
  definitely weed out more of just like the the normies that are
• 1:13:23
  kind of FOMO, FOMO ING in and they're just wanting to to get
• 1:13:28
  exposure to Bitcoin as quickly as possible.
• 1:13:31
  So a lot of times we don't necessarily have to have the
• 1:13:35
  Bitcoin one-on-one conversation because these folks have already
• 1:13:40
  put in their own proof of work and have fallen down the Bitcoin
• 1:13:44
  rabbit hole themselves to the point where they've kind of, you
• 1:13:48
  know, the light bulb has has gone off.
• 1:13:50
  And for, you know, some of our higher net worth individual
• 1:13:53
  folks, they're like, well, shit, I need to buy a lot of this.
• 1:13:58
  And of course, you know, some of some are farther than than
• 1:14:01
  others in their Bitcoin journey. And and so that's where I can, I
• 1:14:04
  can be a resource moving forward when we do establish our
• 1:14:09
  relationship where they do have my e-mail, they do have my cell
• 1:14:14
  where they can get a hold or, you know, we can do additional
• 1:14:17
  video calls where they can get a hold of me and we can have those
• 1:14:21
  conversations. I think it's more so of an
• 1:14:23
  elevator pitch of, of OK, well, why Bitcoin?
• 1:14:26
  Well, and, and first and foremost, you know, the, the two
• 1:14:29
  biggest factors that I lay out to folks, if they're not already
• 1:14:32
  familiar is that we are completely non custodial.
• 1:14:36
  And then we're also publicly traded and in Canada and OTC and
• 1:14:41
  in the US. And so those two factors really
• 1:14:44
  help us to stand out, especially amongst the very large crypto
• 1:14:50
  focus custodians. But even, you know, the other
• 1:14:54
  like great Bitcoin only exchanges, because in my eyes,
• 1:14:59
  obviously I want I'm still a competitor at the end of the
• 1:15:03
  day. I, you know, want to have as as
• 1:15:06
  much volume coming in. But you know, I still have a lot
• 1:15:10
  of respect for our quote UN quote competitors and the space
• 1:15:14
  because at the end of the day, we're we're all team Bitcoin.
• 1:15:18
  But since they are custodial, you do still have that component
• 1:15:23
  where especially for people who are buying larger amounts of
• 1:15:26
  Bitcoin on those platforms where you do have to ask for
• 1:15:30
  permission to withdraw those SAT's or or those coins.
• 1:15:35
  Whereas with us that's, that's never an issue.
• 1:15:38
  You can't even move forward with your purchase until we have a
• 1:15:41
  Bitcoin address and so whenever you do smash buy and that
• 1:15:45
  Bitcoin is being sent directly to yourself custody.
• 1:15:49
  Fantastic, man. I absolutely love that.
• 1:15:51
  Again, I've, I've told Adam this the first time he came on the
• 1:15:55
  show many years ago when we decided to partner up.
• 1:16:00
  You know, you guys decided to build a on ramp the right way
• 1:16:04
  the hard way because it's a lot easier, you know, giving your
• 1:16:10
  clients the ability to just leave the Bitcoin on the
• 1:16:13
  exchange because then you don't have to spend an extra hour
• 1:16:17
  explaining self custody. And you know that you could look
• 1:16:20
  like a kook and like a crazy person to people.
• 1:16:22
  It's like, dude, your money's on this titanium plate, right?
• 1:16:26
  Which to Bitcoiners sounds completely normal, but to
• 1:16:29
  someone that perhaps isn't used to Bitcoin, you know that it, it
• 1:16:34
  might rub them the wrong way. And, and generally speaking,
• 1:16:39
  people that have a higher net worth tend to be a lot older,
• 1:16:41
  right? So anyways, I do want to thank
• 1:16:44
  Riley for coming on the show. Thank you guys for tuning in to
• 1:16:47
  Simply Bitcoin today. Again, go to bitcoinwell.com/OTC
• 1:16:52
  schedule meeting with them today.
• 1:16:54
  You'll either talk to Riley or Chantelle.
• 1:16:56
  You're in very good hands. They're very capable.
• 1:16:58
  We love you guys. Smash the like button.
• 1:17:00
  Consider subscribing and we'll see you guys tomorrow for a
• 1:17:03
  brand new episode of Simply Bitcoin.
• 1:17:04
  But before we do that, special shout out to Optimus Fields for
• 1:17:12
  literally doing the first Simply Bitcoin live show completely
• 1:17:16
  solo yesterday. 700 live viewers, 15,000 likes.
• 1:17:21
  He raw dogged one hour and 20 minutes of just by himself
• 1:17:26
  talking. I don't, I have to see the show.
• 1:17:28
  I don't know how you did that. Yeah, well, it's official.
• 1:17:31
  I am turning the Simply Bitcoin coal into the Simply Optic coal
• 1:17:35
  and we are running a coup on this show.
• 1:17:37
  Nico, I told you this morning. So you're about to be fired.
• 1:17:40
  If you're still bearish tomorrow, you're about to be
• 1:17:42
  fired. I'm.
• 1:17:43
  Gonna be fired the next Tim. Dylan just ripped him by
• 1:17:46
  yourself. That's.
• 1:17:47
  Why it's called a coup? A coup?
• 1:17:49
  I don't know how that happens, but anyways.
• 1:17:51
  Guys love you all appreciate. You all smash the like button,
• 1:17:54
  consider subscribing and we'll see you guys throughout our
• 1:17:56
  brand new episode. Today's episode was brought to
• 1:17:59
  you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin.
• 1:18:01
  Only platform on a mission to enable financial independence.