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Mike's Minute: Manufacturing is our big economic red flag · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from Newstalk sed B. Follow
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  Speaker 2: As much as we tried to celebrate last week's excellent
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  Speaker 2: economic numbers, the food and the fire of the blishness
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  Speaker 2: of the field days, the boost an elective surgery, the
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  Speaker 2: boom and teacher numbers, and many of those will continue
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  Speaker 2: to be a good news story, what you can't ignore is,
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  Speaker 2: sadly are the manufacturing read for April. It hit a
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  Speaker 2: brick wall. It fell over six points. It is below
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  Speaker 2: the fifty point expansion remark. Now, now, a couple of
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  Speaker 2: key things about that. While services and sentiment and spending
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  Speaker 2: figures have been bad, manufacturing four months now has been
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  Speaker 2: on the increase each and every month. It has been
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  Speaker 2: above fifty. It has been growing. It has been a
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  Speaker 2: significant green shoot in the overall economic picture. Other thing
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  Speaker 2: is employment. This is a subcategory that had its biggest
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  Speaker 2: reversal in the history of the index. What makes us worse?
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  Speaker 2: For those of you going, oh, that'll be Trump, the
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  Speaker 2: experts don't think so. It's April. Remember, so Liberation Day
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  Speaker 2: hadn't come to pass. So the big question is how
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  Speaker 2: much of it is the world. Remember the world and
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  Speaker 2: the World Bank last week reduced global growth all over
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  Speaker 2: the place versus how much of it is us. Has
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  Speaker 2: New Zealand Inc hit a tough spot for trainspotters. It
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  Speaker 2: was suggested fairly far and White at the time that
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  Speaker 2: April and may seem to be a little bit of
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  Speaker 2: an issue, and all that momentum that we felt we
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  Speaker 2: had at the start of the year had suddenly run
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  Speaker 2: out of puff. Well, these numbers would tend to suggest
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  Speaker 2: that vibe was real. Ironically, this week we get the
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  Speaker 2: GDP figures four Q one, which is Jan Fabrom March,
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  Speaker 2: and the broad consensus is that we will see good growth.
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  Speaker 2: They think it's about zero point seven for the quarter.
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  Speaker 2: If you add and you will annualize that out, gives
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  Speaker 2: your number very close to three, which anyone would take
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  Speaker 2: in this troubled and turbulent world. But we can't annualize
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  Speaker 2: it out, not with manufacturing numbers like this. It might
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  Speaker 2: be short term. It may involve the Reserve Bank, and
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  Speaker 2: that idea that they had that the things were neutral
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  Speaker 2: and therefore not needing a g up may well be
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  Speaker 2: hopelessly wrong. Politically, of course, it's a hole in the
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  Speaker 2: head the government don't need because it's not like they
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  Speaker 2: aren't peddling fast. But when one of your major economic
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  Speaker 2: reads that was good now isn't, doesn't take an economics
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  Speaker 2: degree to recognize a big, big fat red flag.
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